hillary clinton and donald trump body campaigning in battleground florida. clinton with al gore in miami, trump in panama city beach. trump's running mate holds two events in iowa and president obama stumps holds two events in iowa. bill clinton also campaigns in florida. >> haven't seen al gore for a while. that's it for us on this tuesday. i'm alex witt betty nguyen and "morning joe" starts right now. the minute that tape came out hurricane matthew just disappeared from television. the only channel that continued their round of clock coverage was fox news because they didn't want to talk about the trump tape. even the weather channel was like the hell with this, let's go with the trump tape. >> the only person mentioning disaster on a national level is donald trump. >> obama care is a disaster. >> the education is a disaster. >> what that's going to do is a disaster. >> perhaps the greatest disaster. >> iraq was a disaster. >> i think aleppo is a disaster. >> obama care is a disaster

which would be a disaster. >> it is a disaster. >> take a look at her senate run, take a look at upstate new york. your two minutes is up no disaster. >> a disaster. >> disaster. >> good morning. the whole thing is a disaster. >> disaster. >> tuesday october 11th. welcome to "morning joe." with us we have veteran columnist and msnbc -- >> good morning. >> mike barneycle. >> and the managing editors of bloomberg politics and co-hosts that airs at 6:00 p.m. on msnbc mark halperin and john heilemann. are you asleep? okay. >> everybody happy? how is everybody doing? >> so you felt old mike for the first time last night boston -- >> for the first time. >> boston and major league baseball says good-bye to a guy who certainly in our lifetime has been one of the greatest clutch hitters ever. if you take what he did in game four and five of the 2004 alcs,

just on those, but he did it over a career. >> he did it over an entire career and had he is also a genuinely good person. and that res sew fated both with the crowd, with anyone who met him and the enormous reservoir of affection for him last night, clearly you're looking at it, he walked out of the red sox dugout after the indians finished their well-earned victory at fenway park and it was something to behold. >> ted williams, obviously, at the top of any list of red sox hitters, where does david ortiz --? >> i think it's ted and a very, very close second. david ortiz. >> not in the postseason, right? >> well, only one postseason. >> ortiz is the greatest postseason hitter in the history of baseball. that's why he's going to the -- >> demonstrably the case. >> what he did after the

bombings was an important thing for the city and country. >> yeah. >> okay. politics now. with just four weeks -- hey, can you believe this? >> cubs had a heck of a game. >> what? >> and the giants also. >> that was a great ball game. >> listened to it in the car. >> oh, my gosh unbelievable. they pushed -- i'll tell you, the giants, i don't think the giants will go quietly. >> as long as they have madison baumgartner they're not going quiet sfli mika agree with that. >> you've been madison baumgartner -- >> a fan of his for a long time. >> you love him, right? >> yeah. he's great. >> the old right-hander. >> can you believe we have just four weeks until election day. >> speaking of can't believing. i can't believe the blue jays out of nowhere. and the thing as buck showwalter had a chance -- the chance to put them away, didn't do it. and our texas rangers, i hurt for him right here. >> yeah. >> two words, o canada. >> golly. >> canada, toronto/chicago world series. >> oh, god.

>> that's what it's going to be. >> no. >> chicago -- >> chicago/cleveland. >> that would be amazing. >> that's incredible. >> mika, examine on we have to do politics, come on, hurry up. >> i have poll numbers but i'm confused because they were taken at a weird time. >> bizarre time. >> volatile moment. >> they don't -- what's the point? i mean, you -- tell me how polling is done? do they do it? they say oh, let's pick this moment when the story is not finished and gauge -- >> you don't think the story is finished? >> until he -- >> it's finished. >> last week, we were saying why didn't anybody take polls after debates, right? they didn't. for a long time. this nbc/"wall street journal" poll we work here and love working here, we love this place, they take the poll the second the crisis starts. >> there's a debate scheduled. >> and stop it right before the debate. kite not have been -- it could not have been cooked more to get the result they got. >> i don't think it was cooked. >> no one is thinking.

>> the point you put it. it's ridiculous. to say we're going to put this at the height of the scanned. and they get a 14 point lead. there's a debate scheduled. >> wouldn't you do it after the debate? >> i think they kept going? >> no. >> it was taken over the weekend. . >> i have it here. i looked at the fine print once the scandal started but before the debate. >> what's that? >> stayed in the field another day, i believe they did. >> i'm just -- >> i'm just telling you they say they did not -- they finished before the debate. >> so -- >> they put out the data that didn't include the date. >> so then these numbers you basically -- >> are strange. >> these are strange. >> but good. >> strange timing. >> nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows hillary clinton in the lead nationally among likely voters by 11 points. 46 to 35 and a four-way race with gary johnson at nine and jill stein at two. two-way race the gap is larger,

clinton ahead by 14 points, 52% to 38%. that is a seven-point swing, my friends, in her direction. among clinton voters, 49% say they are motivated by support for clinton, 44% against trump, while 52% of trump voters are motivated by opposition to clinton. 37% support for trump. when asked if the 11-year-old "access hollywood" recording of trump should be an issue in the campaign 52% of likely voters said yes, 42% said no. >> enough numbers. >> but it -- >> it just keeps going. when republicans ask if they would like to see a martian one day eat a lamb chop on the plane of east bulgaria, 43% said yes. >> i'm not a republican but i want to see that. >> yeah. so 67% said they wanted to support trump if he were next to the lamb. so anyway, let me ask you this, john heilemann, this does matter

as far as this latest blowup by trump, even if let's say things are level a week from now? it matters now because in florida and other important states, voting has begun. so actually -- >> now i get it. >> they're saying july where you can go, well, he's got time. this matters because -- >> yeah. >> people are voting right now. >> okay. >> yeah. i mean -- >> thank you. >> yes. >> you mean in matters in terms of taking the poll at that moment as capturing what's going on in terms of voting. >> it's more we're at the point it's a snapshot in time. it's more than a moment in time. >> it's happening. >> people are voting right now. >> and look, i don't have the objection you have. i'm interested in seeing polls, i'm interested in that snapshot of top between the scandal and debate and we're going to have plenty of polling showing the effect of the debate was. i'm happy to see a series of snapshots. >> we didn't have one for 18 months before. i exaggerate. a week and a half after a debate.

>> yeah. >> so what are you think as far as this lead? what are all the negative impacts it's going to have on trump from fund-raising to early voting to organizing? a lot of people out last night cheering him on, but what's the long-term impact? >> it always comes back to halle barber, good gets better and bad gets worse. the stories about hillary clinton latest disclosures of the e-mails would be negative stories. campaigning with al gore could be covered in a fraught, negative way, instead he is just behind the 8 ball now every day and every news cycle through the prism not now the tape, first the video, and now of the polls. >> you know, i don't know if hally barber said it but should have said it, another victim i go by you're never as bad as they say are you, and never as good as you think you are. >> haley barbour in conflict in

two expressions. >> there are exceptions. >> i think in this case it's the second haley barbour. i believe, i could be totally wrong, i think you're going to see a bounceback of trump. it's not going to be 14 points. it's not. it's going to get tighter -- >> but it could be 7 points. >> but it won't be 14. >> right. >> he needs to change the dynamic of the race. >> well, he is. >> yes. >>ne of the more -- >> he has. >> one of the more interesting questions you could ask in the poll that has not been asked is the following question, would you be happy or unhappy, if the election were over today? and i suspect happy would win 80 to 90% of those polls because people are sick of both of these candidates and they are truly sick of this campaign. >> yeah. >> truly sick of it. >> the dynamic of the race that is demonstrably not to his benefit. >> it's uside. >> i was with him yesterday.

i know we will disagree how he performed in the debate sunday night but everything he's done in the last 48 hours has been like he's just campaigning for 35% of america. >> yeah. >> i mean he's running a base campaign right now to make -- to get people who love him already to shake their fists. >> again, you have to -- >> he's -- >> we have to keeps this in perspective. on friday and saturday, he was a political equivalent of dead on arrival. >> right. >> they found him in a ditch on the side of the road and everybody said, he's not going to make it. >> everyone was saying -- >> he's dead. a doctor said, we can remake him. we can make him the 6 million dollar man. no. but his campaign was dead. and he would not have survived until monday if he had not -- changed the dynamic as you said. so right now, 35% for a man who was dead on friday, is not a bad place to start. >> it's a sugar high.

>> it's a sugar high. >> i want to -- >> you don't understand. if you're about to die and your cois is, i could die or they could stick those things on my chest that really hurt, i'm going to take that rather than being dead in the ditch. of course you have to live to -- he's fought to live another day. what does he do with it? >> he's campaigning like a crazy person right now. he's campaigning like a crazy person he walked out yesterday at the first event he did. >> right. >> outside pittsburgh that i was at, it was the first rally since the revelation of the tapes on friday. he walked out on stage and spent the first five minutes of the event talking about how close he is to ben roethlisberger. donald trump spent the last weekend being accused of condoning and boasting about sexual assault and came out on stage and talked about how close he is to be with someone who has been accused of sexual assault twice.

>> right. >> with a -- someone who has been accused of rape twice. >> right. >> that's lunacy. it's lunacy. >> well -- >> it's different from a lot of things. there's no one at this table who would say that's a sensible thing for someone to do, accused of sexual assault walk out and boast about their closeness with a sexual assault perpetrator. he's nuts. >> a lot of things he has done over the past year and a half have been nuts. >> yes, well -- >> he won the republican nomination. his campaign was over on friday. it's not over now. and i want to talk to my friends in romper room land i can see you all with my mirror and make sure before you start tweeting really stupid things that will make my teeth hurt, that you will understand, that i'm not condoning any of this. >> no. >> i'm saying he had a choice to let his campaign die or does his campaign live and he chose to keep his campaign alive.

that's morally repugnant to you. his very existence as jack nicholson would say at the end of "a few good men" is morally repugnant to you, but politically the decision was made i am not going to quit this race and that's where donald trump is right now. i suspect he lives to survive to the end of the campaign and maybe he lives to survive with a very hard core 38% of the vote. >> so -- >> but he would rather do that than be out of the race in early october. >> the depressing thing is, i disagree with you. i think his campaign is over. it will continue. it will continue. >> yeah. >> but the reason that it will continue is, hillary clinton. because you just never know from day to day, i mean the release of these wikileaks e-mails, there's always something there about the clinton campaign and about the candidate herself. >> yeah. >> in addition to the fact that the other evening during the debate, the combined verbiage from both of them, didn't elicit

one inspirational feeling in american voters. >> it was ugly. >> that's what people are looking for in a candidate for president of the united states. and it's not been there. >> so donald trump was in pennsylvania yesterday and maybe he did it there. not really. he made it clear he had no intention of backing off the pressure that he's been applying on hillary clinton and bill clinton. >> i was getting beaten up for 72 hours on all the networks for inappropriate words 12 years ago, locker room talk, whatever you want to call it, but i said to myself, wait a minute, and i just saw very inappropriate words, but bill clinton sexually assaulted innocent women and hillary clinton attacked those women viciously. if they want to release more tapes, saying inappropriate things we'll continue to talk about bill and hillary clinton doing inappropriate things.

as i outlined last night bill clinton was the worst abuser of women ever to sit in the oval office. he was a predator. hillary clinton systemically attacked and discredited the victims of bill clinton's sexual harassment and assault. these things aren't written by the media but they're true. for decades hillary clinton has been deeply familiar with her husband's predatory behavior and instead of trying to stop it, she made it possible for him to take advantage of even more women. she put even more women in harm's way and then she goes out and says, oh, i love women, i'm going to help women, i'm going to help women. she's a total hypocrite. the hypocrisy of the media and our politics is hard to believe. >> so this is all off prompter. it was amazing he waited after starting with his ben roethlisberger, he waited until

the end of the speech and went to prompter and read in a more detailed way than he did on sunday fight where he listed not just the four women, but a long list of everybody that he -- that had negative association, bill clinton sexually abused in his framing. >> that bill clinton -- it was like allegedly sexually abused. >> and his framing is clinton is predator. he called it the devil, encouraged everyone to chant locker up. it was -- i mean it was the reddest of red meat speeches. >> this speech wouldn't help it in primaries of philly. >> they may not like it -- >> talk to every voter that doesn't love him. it was a purely -- >> but again, i hate to try to attach rationale political thought to what seems to be irrational to all of us in polite society, but mark halperin what did the rnc do

yesterday, we're behind him all the way, backing him up all the way. reince priebus made his decision long ago and sticking with it. >> i don't know that reince was as solid on friday night as monday. >> nobody was on friday. >> exactly. >> and reince wasn't on friday night. >> that's the point. mike pence yesterday, he's behind him. >> right. but there are now republicans worried about losing the house because of the strategy. >> they should be. >> winning a third of the vote at the presidential level is -- >> when do we start talking about what happens to the republican party? >> that's what i'm -- >> who thinks -- i mean the most extraordinary thing yesterday reince priebus went one way and paul ryan went the other way. >> paul is still endorsing him. >> yes but -- >> still endorsing him. >> how could he. >> i understand. trust me i understand that. >> paul ryan is endorsing for those of you who don't know, paul ryan is endorsing donald trump. i don't know if you got that word. >> still holding up the possibility he will withdraw it.

like when the missiles are flying? >> what's it going to take. >> still stood up in front of his members and said i will not defend him, not campaign with him, not say anything more about him and all of you are free to do whatever you want. please, shave your own skins now. this is the moment that we reach two weeks out in 1996 with bob dole where the highest ranked republican in the country turned to his membership and said, feel free to do whatever you need to do the because the presidential race is over. >> what is incredible mike barnicle, is ten days ago, we were talking about how the republicans looked like they had a shot, 50/50 shot of holding on to the senate. nobody is saying that this morning. and now, you're starting to hear serious talk about the democrats having a shot at actually taking over the house that would be extraordinary and look at the preference for control of congress. the democrats at 49%, republicans at 42%, guess when the numbers were that bad, mike? you know the last time the

numbers were that bad for republicans? in the middle of ted cruz's government shutdown. >> the house, the idea that the house would go democratic, is truly shocking. i mean, it gives voice to the depth of what trump has done to the republican party in this campaign, which again, the question that i just posed, what happens to that party after election day. >> well let's see it's october 11th, everybody is talking about the elections today. let's see what's looks like on october 18th and if trump's closer than a lot of these weasels that have slipped away from the republican party will come right back. that's been their biggest problem all along. they've been weasels. if trump looks popular for their people they support him and looks less popular they run away. we'll see if they run backp. >> but you have the speaker of the house, the most powerful elected republican official in the country, basically saying hey, you guys are on your own do what you have to do. >> yeah. >> paul ryan is not a stupid man. he knew when he got on the call

and said this he would take a huge backlash from the base of the party and other republican members of the house, but he is now going to be the leader of saying to people, hillary clinton's going to be president. >> yes. >> the republicans are going to lose control of the senate. the one thing you can do if you care about stopping hillary clinton's policy agenda is keep me as speaker of the house, keep republicanses mat jorty. it's a risk. >> this is not a position of instinct. this is a position informed by all the polling the republicans are looking at on the house side. ryan is looking at this saying we have lost the presidential race and our majority in the house is in jeopardy. this is the only choice i have right now on the basis of the numbers not just these public polls but everything the party is seeing right now. >> why wouldn't he just pull his endorsement? what is he clinging to? >> he's trying to minimize the drama of -- of what would happen if he did that. he hasn't ruled that out, endorsing him. what else could it be. he's trying -- >> yeah. >> he's using his judgment.

what's the best way to keep one chamber in conservative control to stop speaker pelosi and majority leader schumer and president clinton from passing a liberal agenda. >> trying not to provoke the trump base either. he feels by dis-endorsing trump he would anger a large part of the party, the party's faithful. >> hurt a lot of memberers. >> i think kite go both ways in a situation like this. >> i parentally some are. >> it's october 11th. i asked this question at the beginning of september. is the race over. and everybody on the table said the race was over. it then tightened up. but i'm hearing from you guys that race is over. >> over. >> so i can -- i just want to know if i can just relax over the next three weeks or so, so i'm going to go around, it sure sounds like you are saying on october 11th with three weeks left this race is over even though we've heard from harold wilson in politics a week is a lifetime. john heilemann is this race

over, is hillary clinton the next president of the united states? >> absent some dramatic exogenous event, yes. >> i love. >> exon nous. >> i love exogenous. >> one of them could -- hillary clinton could get hit by a bus. >> i'll tell you that. >> so absent -- >> so on your scorecard absent of being hit by a bus hillary clinton will be the next president of the united states. >> i mean that metaphorically. >> a meteor could strike her. >> there could be something in one of these wikileaks dumps that turns out to be genuinely incriminating. i'm not saying i foe know -- >> a huge thing. >> hillary clinton is the president. >> mark halperin. >> i didn't say it was over last time you polled everybody. i said it was not over. even when he was down -- >> is it over now? >> it is over. barring some intervening event and barring -- donald trump has to start talking about what he would do to make the lives of americans better. >> donald trump is not going to change. >> i'm saying, if that's the way he behaves.

>> right. >> even with some intervening event, he can't win. >> really? >> if that's what he's talking about. >> you think hillary clinton is the next president of the united states? >> if he keeps talking about this and not how he makes the live of american people berth. >> it's over. the damage to the system and this country is out there for quite a while. >> you can't overstate the extent to which there is chaos within the apparatus of the campaign of the republican party independent of "access hollywood" and everything else they are way behind the clinton campaign in terms of a cohesive organization and that gives her insurance here she's ahead by 11 in the polls of cour. >> i think it's over, but i think it's been ugly and, you know, blood bath. i think hillary clinton has a huge opportunity here to find her voice in a way that americans have never seen before and to be really inspiring. i think the opportunity is

massive. otherwise, she kind of, you know, it's all been kind of a terrible experience that i think leads to kind of a rough start. i do think it could be over. and you? >> i don't think it's over. i think hillary clinton is terrible with a lead. i think donald trump is pretty good with his back up against the wall. and i think there are three weeks and i think anything can happen over three weeks. listen, if i were betting, but of course i don't bet. >> today. >> but if i were betting today, yes, i would bet that hillary clinton would win and i would feel comfortable putting a good bit on there. like, you know, a week's salary. $27 and three proof of purchase seals. >> and a carton of cigarettes. >> i'm not going to bet that. >> don't want to part with your cools. >> strikes. >> parliaments. >> i think the thing that surprises me is how evers's attitude -- everybody's attitude go on twitter it's funny. it's like -- i'm just saying

it's like running from one side of a cliff to another side to another side to another side. >> here's the counter to a week is a lifetime in politics. >> yeah. >> number of americans who say they will never vote for him is just too high for him to win right now. >> what was hillary clinton's approval rating in the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, has it gone up? who do people think are more honest and trustworthy? i understand what you're saying except for when you have the two least popular people in the history of american politics as the party nominees. >> except when you to build an advantage in the electoral college and the democrats. you can't overcome that with someone who so many americans say they will never vote for? he would have to change that view and that's a hard view to change. >> what alex says needs to be over this block. still ahead, what john heilemann has to say before alex started screaming in russian in my ear, i don't know what that's about. >> paul ryan saying he will not defend his party's nominee.

joined by "the washington post" robert who tweeted many want to defect from trump but the debate gave them pause since he roused their base. holly jackson joins us as well with her latest reporting, now to bill karins to explain why some of the flooding from hurricane matthew could go from bad to worse. >> incredible some people are still being evacuated now because the river levels are going up, dams failing, levees failing. this is along the river from smithfield to goldsborrow towards the coast and you can barely tell where the river is supposed to be. water high and it will rise and crest not until thursday this week and remain above flood stage all the way through the weekend. he's the map that shows you all the flooding spots in south carolina and north carolina. it's from the rally area eastward. other weather story a cold morning, end of the growing season in many areas. 28 degrees in up yits sta new

york, 3 upstate new york. it's going to be a nice afternoon at least. we have tropical storm nicole heading for bermuda, putting up their storm shutters during the day today, that path will be near them early thursday morning. nice beautiful weather through the middle of the country and everyone still trying to recover in the southeast, you'll have a nice beautiful afternoon. to problems whatsoever. new york city, after a cold start, high today in the low 60s. beautiful fall day. more "morning joe" we'll be right back. bp gives its offshore teams 24/7 support from onshore experts,

we have extra sets of on our wells every day. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better. they said a bottle was just a bottle.fied. that no one would ever notice me. but i knew i could be mor that one day, i would make people smile. [woman speaking indistinctly]

still ahead, donald trump has called hillary clinton an enabler when it comes to bill clinton's alleged sexual abuses. "the wall street journal"'s brett stevens says mike pence is donald trump's moral enabler. we'll read from his piece. >> have you seen ron howard's beatles documentary if. >> i hear it's spectacular. >> "morning joe" is back. >> you can watch it on hulu. >> in a moment.

it's been an interesting few days. i don't condone what was said and i spoke out against it, but the other part of my faith is, i believe in grace. i've received it. i believe in it. i believe in forgiveness and we're called to forgive as we have been forgiven. last night my running mate showed the american people heart, he showed humility to the american people, and then he fought back and turned the focus to the choice that we faced and

i'm proud to stand with donald trump. >> that is my good friend "meet the press" -- mike pence. we turn to mika. >> "wall street journal," this is fred stevens. donald and the enablers. indiana governor mike pence is supposed to be the sober side of pence/trump, imposes ideological discipline on a ticket that would otherwise blow which ever way mr. trump puffs. but that misreads mr. pence's role in this disastrous gop season. mr. pence isn't his boss's junior political partner. he's his moral enabler. i use enablers in the psychiatric sense. meaning, as mer reyam webster has it, one who enables another to persist in self-destructive behavior by providing excuses or making it possible to avoid the consequences of such behavior.

enablers like to think of themselves as heros in truth, they're accomplices. >> enabler is going around. donald trump do saying hillary clinton was bill clinton's enabler. and i think [ inaudible ] who has won a pulitzer, anybody? check it out. i know i have. '78. >> in your mind. >> '78. it was an incredible story. >> okay. >> won in 2013. all right. 2013. so anyway, enabler of mike pence. you were with mike pence all day yesterday. >> i left st. louis at about midnight on -- after the debate to drive to indianapolis to be in a position because i thought it was possible mike pence might -- >> drop out? >> or repudiate his running mate holding in his hands the possibility the extraordinary power to say -- >> he has suggested he might not stay with trump over the weekend, right? >> he put out a statement saying i don't like what he says.

let's see what he says in the debate. mike pence was satisfied by what donald trump said in the debate. >> more than satisfied. >> the debate made him stay? >> yes. >> yesterday he gave two extraordinary speeches, testifying saying, donald trump is a flawed human being, so is hillary clinton. hillary clinton's flaws involve her time in public life and hillary clinton's flaws involve policy positions that will destroy america. >> mike barnicle, he's a flawed person, too, said i've been given grace. >> we played that clip. >> tie my shoes here. can you come back down here. hold on a second. >> why would you do that before -- >> not the driving factor in all of this the fact that mike pence every day wakes up in addition to the image of himself -- >> 18-year-old boot, by the way. >> oh, no. >> i do not believe that is driving it. he believes that donald trump would be better for america on judges, on taxes, and he's not ready to abandon his running mate who put him on the ticket. i think that -- i think he could have ended the trump candidacy

if he abandoned him and instead he is the strongest supporter and by expressing skepticism over the weekend, the fact that he was won over by the debate, i think best thing that happened to donald trump yesterday was what mike pence said on his behalf. pence's speeches unlike trump's speeches are quite good and pivoting from what happened to donald trump in the tape which he addressed head on to talking about the policy difference between the two candidates. >> john heilemann, i thought yesterday watching this speech made it clear why a lot of republicans offended by donald trump, a lot of conservatives offended by donald trump are still going to vote for donald trump. pence did lay it out very effectively. saying yes, he is a flawed guy and i was offended by what he said. but i'm more offended by how hillary clinton would run the country for the next four years. pence actually gave, i thought, one of the more persuasive arguments i've heard during this crisis. >> i don't understand how any christian conservatives who claim that that's like the core of their political identity, are

sticking with donald trump. >> you're saying you don't understand how any christian could make that the core of their political identity. there are a lot of self-styled value conservatives. >> right. >> those listening to -- i don't understand their logic. i get they don't like hillary clinton but i can't -- doesn't make sense to me. >> you're not extending that to all christians. >> i said -- i don't how christian conservative politicians who make their christianity the core of their political identity and have been -- their whole thing about values in politics -- >> i don't understand it. >> let me help explain it to you. in 1997/1998/1999 a lot of feminists who had given their entire life to the cause of feminism who were enablers for bill clinton and chose power, they chose access to the white house, they chose access to the president, to actually defending a young 22, 23-year-old woman. >> so you're saying that pence

is the analogy of that? >> what i'm saying is, christian evangelicals that are standing beside donald trump, have made the same choice that feminists made in '97 and '98 and '99 and they can't deny that that's the choice that they're making. >> that's a pretty -- in your judgment that's a pretty damming judgment. right? just the way you just described it, as enabling. >> john i'll give you one -- >> can i answer? can i answer the question? can i answer? >> i just want to answer. this is a great question. yes, it is just as damming. go ahead. >> i'll give you one reason why. one of the presidential candidates will appoint pro-choice justices to the supreme court one will -- says he will appoint pro-life justices. if you're mike pence and you're a conservative christian, you see, here are two flawed people, people who have done lots of things in their life for which they need forgiveness and one of them says they'll stop abortion in america. or abortion on demand. that seems to me to be --

>> we don't have abortion on demand in america. just to clarify that. that's not the way it works currently. but i get -- i understand the point though. i get -- >> it's been a pleasure to have you. >> do you have to leave? >> i do. >> where are you going? >> please go. >> i have to go smoke a cigarette somewhere. >> really? >> go get your parliaments. >> trying to calm my nerves. >> is there a methadone clinic down the street? >> there is 55th and 5th. >> that makes it easy to remember. 555. >> raise our taxes? after all, he says it works in scandinavia. >> then let's do what scandinavians -- >> still ahead. first -- >> is it amazing? because they have high taxes? >> i love it. >> routh bader ginsburg. >> the notorious i love her, weighs in on kaepernick v. nfl. we'll see if she has any fantasy football picks as well. that story is next. sure, we could have stacked these tires.

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so we haven't talked about the most important story. >> kenneth bone, better known as kenny bone. you're in the bone zone. he took off yesterday. >> america's sweetheart. >> do you know why he was wearing the sweater? >> why. >> he was wearing a suit, got in his car and ripped his pants. >> oh. >> so if your pants are a little tight today you're in the bone zone. >> joe kelly relief pitcher for the boston red sox left two tickets at will call for kenny bone. >> did he pick them up? >> he didn't. >> izod thanks ken bone. >> izod sweater. >> yes. >> it's a good one. >> those sweaters sold out. i zods now in the bone zone. >> like when michele obama with

wears a certain dress. >> he had a an olive suit he was wearing. >> had a good suit. >> an olive suit ripped. it happens. >> good energy question. >> okay. in that line of questions it was like a -- >> anyway, a rowling from the supreme court -- ruling from the supreme court's most notorious justice on colin kaepernick. >> speakin with katie couric justice ginsburg called the protest by kaepernick and other nfl players dumb but legal. >> i think it's really dumb of them. would i arrest them for doing it? no. i think it's dumb and disrespectful. the same -- i have the same answer if you ask me about flag burning. i think it's a terrible thing to do. but i wouldn't lock a person up for it -- for doing it. i would point out how ridiculous it seems to me to do such ap

act. >> mike, we now know why she was such good friends with scalia. they ate spaghetti together and talked. they were good friends. somewhere, somewhere scalia is smiling. >> yeah. >> i mean this is a definite slice of antonin scalia in routh begi ruth ginsburg. >> he's right on that. just dumb. coming up "the washington post" robert costa will join us with his latest reporting. >> from yemen to pakistan to africa the founder travels the world to explore the origins and impact of today's most dangerous terror groups. we preview the first episode of a five-part documentary series just ahead on "morning joe." man: dear mr. danoff, my wife and i are now participating in your mutual fund. we invested in your fund to help us pay for a college education for our son. we've enclosed a picture of our son

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joining us jake sherman. >> what are you looking at on the playbook. >> we have a brand new poll out conducted entirely yesterday after the debate. it has hillary clinton up 5 points. >> there you go. >> 42 to 37. a poll conducted in concert with morning consult. in case you were wondering how much americans like and think of hillary clinton and donald trump, more than half say donald trump is racist and 55% say hillary clinton is corrupt.

so a really -- >> fantastic. >> that is -- >> that is awful. you look at -- 51% say he's racist. 60% say he's sexist. 44% say he's corrupt. 38% say he's overly secretive. on hillary clinton's part 63% say she's overly secretive. 55% say she's corrupt. boy, every way you look at it, you lose, as paul simon is saying, mrs. robinson. what's surprising here, there doesn't look like a big change. it looks like a net change of one point in your poll? >> yeah. and i think what you're seeing is the number keeps getting smaller. how many people are undecided and how many people say that the debate changes their mind. now, dovetailing off something mark said earlier, the ball lost is not looking god for republicans in down ballot races. democrats have a five-point advantage which helps explain why paul ryan is setting his members free and like mark said

we have a story up this morning, paul ryan is holding open the option of completely walking away from trump which a lot of people are suggesting he do, but he says his aides and his political orbit says he's not doing that. he wants to try to protect his members. many of them think that their base will flee if ryan completely walks away from trump. >> because you have your finger on the pulse of washington like few others could you do the playbook in here and constantly reaching out all day, talk about the level of well, concern among republicans. is it concern this week? is it panic? what is it? >> i'll tell you that people at and around the nrcc the organization charged with electing house republicans, there is a lot of panic. i think that people at the nrcc and people who run super pacs are looking at this in a cold, calculated way. they are seeing seats that are plus fives, which means pretty safe republican seats coming up and they're worried about

turnout. they're worried about people getting disgusted with trump and not turning out at all. paul ryan has a lot of members to worry about, but that kind of explains why he's hedging his bettings and stuck and has his own political ambitions to worry about in 2020. paul ryan is in a bad spot. a spot perhaps like we haven't seen him in a long time. >> mike? >> jake, can you measure the difference between the angst over the future of the house whether it's going to be a republican or democratic majority from today as opposed to a week or ten days ago? has it grown enormously, slowly? >> i think when the house was in a couple weeks ago before they recessed until after the election, the republicans that i talked to basically were saying that they thought they could keep their losses to single digits. so to give comparison, the house -- republicans need to lose 30 seats to lose the house. i think there's been a massive

sea change over the last couple days based on the video and debate and i was talking to a senior house leadership aide yesterday who said this guy can't keep talking to the bright bart crew and fox news crew and he can't and that's hurting republicans across the country and he's showing no signs of turning this around and that is what really concerns people at the nrcc and in house republican sfloo leadership. >> jake sherman, thank you so much. why doesn't paul ryan do what he wants to do at this point? i mean, shouldn't he? what would you do? >> i would have never endorsed him. but i said that back in december. >> coming up on "morning joe," what to do about donald trump with less than a month until election day. the republican party is facing a deepping split and in the wake of the video scandal robert costa and former adviser to ted cruz are with us. do they think this race is over? and later, mika, what do we

have? >> how a political loss helped define hillary clinton long before her own defeat in the primaries eight years ago. >> i regret that i will not have two more years to serve as governor. because i have loved it. i have probably loved it as much as any person who has in this office and i want you to be grateful that with the grace of god, we will have the chance to serve again. >> in the next two years, clinton would regroup and in a sense, reform. >> wow. a new profile in "the new york times" magazine examines hillary clinton's reaction to her husband's loss in arkansas and how it still impacts her approach to the presidential race today. "morning joe" is back in a moment. guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50%

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listen to mei am can of the track team, and if i'm late... she doesn't really think she's going to get out of here, does she? be nice. she's new. hello! is anyone there? rrr! wow. even from our standards, you look awful. oh, sweetie, what happened? girl: me? my friend becky got talk to this super-cute boy, and i tried to act like i wasn't jealous, but i so totally was, and then, out of nowhere, this concrete barrier ju popped up. maybe it was a semi. you mean you were driving? yeah. i mean, i know the whole "eyes on the road" thing. but this was a super important text. maybe you have to know becky. texting? great. but it was only, like, 5 seconds, and i'm a really, really fast texter, so it wasn't even a big deal. actually, has she texted me back yet? [squishing sound] wow, i get, like, no bars in this place. i wonder if they have wii here.

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>>what's your name? >> nate. >> now, he's supposed to look like donald trump, but he's actually much too good looking. you are really handsome. are you having a good time tonight? >> faubl. >> [ inaudible ]. s wheres a your daddy or mommy? do you want to go back with them

or stay with donald trump? >> trump. >> cue the baby. did you hear him say trump? >> trump. that's right. >> good lord. welcome back to "morning joe." it's tuesday october 11th, mike is still with us. joining the conversation, we have the political reporter with "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst robert costa and former ted cruz communications director now an msnbc political contributor, rick tyler. good to have you both. >> good morning. >> we have four weeks until election day and a new poll has come out and they dropped it at the worst possible time for donald trump. right, right as the scandal hit and right before the debate took part, so we don't know how these numbers stand up. i suspect unless something else happens this will probably be the low point for trump. but i think -- >> people are voting. >> there's probably a five, six,

seven point real-time gap now after the debate but you're right, people are voting today. early voting is taking place. so i guess to that point. >> it's worth looking at. >> all the polls are relevant. >> the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll taken over the weekend shows hillary clinton in the lead nationally among likely voters by 11 points, 46% to 35% in a four-way race with gary johnson at 9 and jill stein at 2%. in a two-way race the gap is even larger. clinton ahead by 14 points. 52% to 38%. that's a seven-point swing in her direction. registered voters have a more negative than positive view of both candidates. 40% have a positive opinion of clinton while only 29% have a positive opinion of trump. 50% have a negative view of clinton and 63% see trump negatively. a ten-point deficit for clinton and a 34-point deficit for

trump. meanwhile a troubling poll for congressional republicans as 49% of likely voters nationally say they want democrats in control of congress. 42% prefer republicans. the 7-point margin is the democrats' largest advantage since the government shutdown in october of 2013. >> yeah. that's the worst number that it's been since rick tyler and ted cruz help shut down the government and almost destroyed the republican party. >> those look like the good old days. >> look like the good old days. >> they do. >> timely thing for sweet and innocent. >> oh, my lord. >> just ted cruz with his horrible orator. come on he works for ted. >> please. he knows. >> rick fingernails on a chalk board, right? >> hey. okay. you don't have to say everything you think? use your inside voice, okay. i'm sorry. pretend none of that happened

and ask you this question, i've been asking the question of everybody, everybody is talking like this race is over, do you think this race is over? >> it's over. >> really? >> i think it's been over for a long time and -- >> really? >> i don't know it's going to turn around, joe. you look at the 11-point advantage, go back and forth a little bit but hillary has been consistently ahead and ahead in swing states and those tighten up for a while but now they've widened out and, you know, this tape may be the first of many things to come. i don't -- i don't know what will be next, but i have a feeling it could be worse. hillary just needs to sort of coast here and not make any mistakes and in all likelihood she will win. >> if you think it's over, what does that mean this early for the republican senate? is it gone? >> it very well could be. for a long time this -- i've been saying that the presidential campaign has been, you know, on an island in the middle of the ocean. i keep calling it lune na tick

island. the coverage has been so intense and no one is paying attention to the senate races and certainly not the house races. the republicans have been running pretty good campaigns in those raise but you're seeing with this tape, there's a little bit of a bleed over. when you have a candidate who has a negative rating of net minus 34%, and is losing by more than 10 points. >> right. >> that's why paul ryan is looking at making sure that he's going to preserve that house majority and all indications. now the senate races are -- it depends on who turns out, if the base is excited and they turn out for donald trump, and decide to punish the republicans, they could be in trouble but by contrast if people stay home, then well no, not by contrast the republicans will be in trouble. so look, i think in all likelihood they will lose it but

it will be close. >> let me bring in bob costa. i've been asking whether the race is over. everybody said yes, it is except for me. i think three weeks is too long to predict anything in this crazy political season. what's the feeling, though, on capitol hill with republican members behind you? do they think it's over and what are you hearing from the trump camp? >> i think a lot of members on capitol hill believe the race is trending in secretary clinton's direction. just a fascinating conference call that speaker ryan held yesterday morning where he had members not only hear his pitch about how to proceed over the next few weeks but he heard them vent. he heard some of the more conservative populace members of the house say we don't want you to cut loose from donald trump. it's best for the party for you to stick with him. the leadership think it's doing an emergency operation something that has to be done to have their own strategy and their own final closing chapter. >> so donald trump was in pennsylvania yesterday and he made it clear that he had no

intention of backing off pressure he's begun applying on hillary clinton and her husband bill clinton. >> i was getting beaten up for 72 hours on all the networks for inappropriate words 12 years ago, locker room talk, whatever you want to call it, but, i said to myself, wait a minute, and i just saw a very inappropriate words, but bill clinton sexually assaulted innocent women and hillary clinton attacked those women viciously. if they want to release more tapes, saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about bill and hillary clinton doing inappropriate things. as i outlined last night, bill clinton was the worst abuser of women ever to sit in the oval office. he was a predator. hillary clinton systemically attacked and discredited the victims of bill clinton's sexual harassment and assault.

these things aren't written by the media but they're true. >> okay. so trump also returned his attention to hillary clinton's e-mails and the crowd in pennsylvania responded with chants that have come to define his rallies lock her up. but trump didn't tampp down the chant as he had in days following. here is how he reacted to the calls back in july followed by yesterday. >> let's defeat her in november. >> very, very sad. special prosecutor here we come, right. i win, we're going to appoint

the special prosecutor. >> mike barnacle. >> robert costa, for 16 months, you have led the league in reporting on the internals of the trump campaign. so, let me ask you, is there any pushback, any dissension, according to your sources within the campaign, that would oppose donald trump from running for president of breitbart nation? >> that's a great question, mike. there are voices within trump's wider orbit, people like speaker gingrich, who advise trump to not go in this direction against the former president and secretary clinton. based on my reporting the people around trump now, 24/7, steve banon, kellyanne conway, rudy giuliani, people who are encouraging of trump's approach, the hardline approach, mentioning the accusations of sexual assault, and sexual misconduct, and they're all simpatico on this front. >> gosh.

hillary clinton will be campaigning today with former vice president al gore. her campaign says more than 13,000 people attended her rally last night at ohio state university with thousands more waiting outside. it was clinton's largest campaign event to date. while on the trail, she kept up her criticism of donald trump after he characterized the comments he made in a leaked 2005 tape as locker room banter. >> you know what has happened today, which is so interesting, is that a lot of athletes and coaches, from the nba, from major league baseball, from the nfl and more, have been coming forward tweeting, they've been saying, no, that's not what happens in our locker rooms. i just happen to think that our athletes and our coaches know a lot more about what happens in

locker rooms than donald trump does. donald trump spent his time attacking when he should have been apologizing. when he was pressed about house he behaves, he just doubled down on his excuse that it's just locker room banter. women and men across america know that is just a really weak excuse for behaving badly and mistreating people. >> wikileaks has released another batch of e-mails reportedly hacked from the private e-mail account of clinton campaign chairman john podesta. the group released 2,000 new documents yesterday following friday's e-mail dump. he has acknowledged the e-mails were hacked but warned the messages may have been altered or edited. the batch offered a number of revelations including hillary clinton's campaign allegedly

feared a potential white house run by vice president joe biden and it was unproposed for the challenge presented by senator bernie sanders. the documents also claim clinton wanted to respond to the 2015 book trying to connect actions by her family's foundation to her time at the state department with more force. there was also an alleged exchange involving long-time bill clinton aide doug vand regarding a feud with chelsea clinton over ties between the family's foundation and band's consulting company. band at one point calls clinton a spoiled brat who had a, quote, lack of focus in her life. the context of the criticism isn't clear and band has declined to comment. but clinton also complained to podesta that her father's name was being used on behalf of his clients. >> meanwhile donald trump's claim during sunday's debate he doesn't know whether russia is behind the efforts to hack the election systems is being called

into question. >> speaking with nbc news, a senior u.s. intelligence official says that both trump and hillary clinton have been briefed since mid-august on cyber security and russia's efforts to metddle with the election. trump declined to acknowledge hacks mostly on democratic targets were real and less than 24 hours after that, he celebrated the latest breach of clinton campaign chairman's personal e-mails by wikileaks. >> but i notice any time anything wrong happens, they like to say, the russians are -- she doesn't know if it's the russian doing the hacking. maybe there is no hacking. but they always blame russia. the reason they blame russia they think they're trying to tarnish me with russia. i know nothing about russia. i know about russia, but i know nothing about the inner workings of russia. >> hillary had no defense for secret speeches to wall street and international banks that she hid from the public and which were exposed by wikileakss.

and by the way, just as i'm walking on to the stage, mayor giuliani said you're not going to believe this, look at this, we have all of these new charges. did you see it just came down today. wikileaks, some new stuff. some brutal stuff. i mean i would read it to you, but the hell with it trust me it's bad stuff. >> here's one thing i don't understand about donald trump and wikileaks. it seems to me that there are two documents that have come out over the past couple days that are really bad for hillary clinton and any politician, one being that she said, well i say one thing behind closed doors and then i say another thing in public. that got some examination during the debate. but something that i know that your candidate and every other republican candidate would be going after with a vengeance day in and day out, was hillary clinton praising open borders.

especially since donald trump has been accusing hillary clinton of being for open borders and every one of these fact finding, you know, fact check checker organizations said it's mostly false. it's actually 100% true. i would think that the man that started this campaign on illegal immigration, who be hammering the fact that hillary clinton was bragging in private about supporting open borders and an eu sort of trading system. i would think that would be all he would be talking about right now? >> well, i agree with you, joe. that's the thing that catalyzed his campaign and ran on is open borders and building a wall and accusing hillary clinton of continuing the barack obama policies about the border. but even beyond that open borders suggest that people come in and -- as they -- at will, and that's been tied to the economy because of jobs.

people feel like illegal immigrants are taking their jobs and donald trump has tied that to illegal immigrants who have committed crimes in sanctuary cities and on and on and yet here's a definitive proof she's for open borders and he doesn't take the opportunity to focus in on it. it's inexplicable to me. >> bob costa, what is the campaign's plan moving forward? they see the numbers out this morning. it looks bad. do you get a sense of any panic at all from trump or his top advisors and whether they believe they still have a shot of winning this thing? >> they are seeing themselves as fully removed from the republican party. yes, they're close to reince priebus, the republican national committee chairman, but beyond that, their isolation is striking and trump himself and banon, when they're behind the scenes with giuliani, these are people who aren't speaking highly of the gop. they think the gop is cutting them loose in an inappropriate way. they're furious with the

national party at least on capitol hill. what they're looking for now, is to just go full at secretary clinton in an aggressive way, prps a way that rubs some swing voters the wrong way and also have some kind of populace message on the economy. >> are they -- reince priebus is -- and sean spicer, they're still in there with trump. they seem to be an island under themselves almost. explain that dynamic. are they doing that out of loyalty to donald trump or are they desperate to keep this race close so they don't lose the senate? because they know and they've said for a very long time, if donald trump loses by 7, 8, 9 points we lose the senate. if he loses by one or two points we probably hold the senate. is that what this is all about? >> part of it joe out of obligation, priebus, according to many people close to him says trump is the nominee and he can't break away from the followeny. at the -- nominee.

at the same time what's intriguing is the rapport that reince priebus has developed with donald trump. it's unusual for a party chairman to go to a place like trump tower to participate in debate prep to be back stage with him at the debate this was through the cory lewandowski phase and paul manafort, it's been priebus making the effort on his own, not always prompted by his members to have that kind of relationship with donald trump. >> why? >> why? >> maybe to try to be a unifying force? >> well, i think, mika, he sees himself as kind of a trump whisperers, can be a conduit to trump trying to make trump aware. let's be candid, many people close to trump and in the party who think priebus has been limited in that role, that he has kept the party together in some respects by having that relationship with trump, but he hasn't been always able to get trump to do what the party would like him to do. >> mike, you ask why, you have

to keep up and communication. you just have to keep open communications with a nominee. i mean, my argument would be, if he is the nominee, is it better to have him completely isolate? listen, i know haley barbour and a lot of people are offended by the existence of donald trump as the nominee. but i think for the best interest of the party, for the best interest of the country, you can go in and say, i disagree with you, but this is what you should be doing. i don't know that trump would want to listen to those guys but it's just like john kerry, if john kerry can engage with russians that are killing little babies in aleppo and starving people to death there because engagement is better than isolation, if barack obama can be proud of embracing the most evil epicenter of terror since 1979 with the iranians i think the republicans can justify

trying to have an influence op trump. you disagree? >> i disagree with the comparison. >> well no, yeah, there's, obviously -- what i'm saying is, you do it in the -- on the largest of stage, why can't you do it politically on a smaller stage? i get that. i'm not comparing donald trump to -- >> i'm just wondering -- there's a larger question in my mind about the reince priebus/donald trump relationship as it exists today as robert costa outlined and it is this, is he now thinking finally behind sooigts is a wonderful thing, thinking finally why didn't we do something or could we have done something to stop this guy a year ago? >> nobody knew how to stop him. you look at those guys, nobody knew how to stop this guy. nobody would do -- listen, here's the thing. and rick tyler, i know, i think you will agree with me, here's the thing we learned about donald trump over the last 72 hours. you know, please, everybody, he

be as offended as you want to be. donald trump is a survivor, he is a fighter, he is a brawler, he was dead in the ditch politicalically on friday and he pulled himself out and he fought like hell and his campaign is alive. and yeah, maybe 35, 36, 37, 38%. the guy is a fighter. there was nobody in the campaign, none of those 17 republicans, including the guy you worked for, that was willing -- i'm sorry, that was willing politically to rip his throat out. that might shock some of you that i use that terminology at 7:21 in the morning, but, that's how donald trump thinks. there was nobody else that was willing -- i'm going to go up and destroy him, reduce him to dust. and that's what it takes. none of them had it. >> look, i think donald trump was a very strong in the debate for his own base but he didn't do what he needed to get done which is expand the base. there's two things going on here, one is not just to be

anti-hillary -- and by the way, you all are looking at this, a very lucrative market for hillary clinton presidency for the people who surround donald trump. they make a lot of money being opposed against hillary. that's one thing. he's retrenching the base. purposely not expanding it seems like to get further on. there's more going on here. donald trump has no relationship or history with the republican party in the conservative movement. he doesn't care about the party or reince priebus. my suggestion right now is, historically what's happening you're watching the split of the republican party and it is made up of all the people who have now dissociated themselves and unendorsed donald trump and some outright calling for him to drop from the ticket and the breitbart wing of the party and the breitbart wing of the party would like to throw out the current republican party and start over with brand new politics and their brand of fighting we can argue whether that's good or bad. i think the republican party is going to be in real trouble post-election. >> joining us now from panama

city, florida. >> panama city, old stomping ground. >> halle jackson. what does trump have planned for florida today >> he's in battleground florida for the next couple days. he's here in panama city and then ocala and couple other hot spots trying to focus on the one state where he does -- his campaign does seem to have some kind of ground game, at least when you compare it to other battlegrounds like north carolina, where he will be later this week, like ohio, for example, where he's headed as well over the weekend he would be in new hampshire and maine trying to gor for that electoral vote, 25, 24 days out before the election. today, we do expect him to be at a rally later on near where we are in panama city. he's been, obviously, as you know, kind of pushing this primary feel at his rallies. didn't go after the clintons in a way he did over the weekend last night, but he is still trying to throw red meat to his base. what happens with folks in the republican party. we have seen the defections

yesterday we saw, obviously, the news from house speaker paul ryan and the big question now, people like marco rubio here in florida do. rubio the senator's office telling us his campaign rather he has had no change in his statement since the one he released on friday afternoon where he denounced donald trump's comments but said nothing about whether or not he would revoke his endorsement. that's one of the story lines we're watching with other vulnerable senators like richard burr, who we caught up talking about his faith saying if i can't forgive donald trump than who can forgive me. as a christian if i'm not able to give forgiveness how can i ask for forgiveness and we caught up with ron johnson and here's what he had to say. >> a lot of people are asking me that question. people should be asking senator feingold does fully support hillary clinton. i'm in the going to defend donald trump's despicable words. they're indensible but i don't know how senator feingold could

support hillary clinton's actions. go back to the scandals, travel gate, whitewater, corrupts in profits she made off of cattle gate. hillary clinton threatened, threatened the women that bill clinton abused and has she ever apologized for that? >> that's ron johnson explaining why he will continue to support donald trump. another bit of news this morning, governor chris christie hearing from him for the first time publicly since all of this came out, the aud yof 2005 on friday. christy on wfan saying he still supports donald trump. he's upset about what he heard but he says in the end, as you can see it there, this election is about bigger issues. >> so listen, i have advice for you, how long are you going to be in panama city? >> yeah. >> like seven hours. >> seven hours. >> rally and then tallahassee. >> for lunch go to captain andersons. >> okay. >> on panama city beach and tell them joe sent you and they will go okay, get to the back of the

line, but still, you should go. >> actually don't say joe sent you. >> maybe not. >> okay. >> i'll say mika sent me. >> smarter. >> mika sent you captain anderson's panama city beach. >> thank you for being with us. >> all right. in our next hour we will go live to casey hunt in miami. >> in miami you love -- >> i like the popovers. >> you love joe's stone crab down there. >> popovers at the betsy. robert and rick, thank you very much. still ahead on "morning joe" we're going to talk to matt bevin founder of real clear politics about how the political landscape has changed over the last few days. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. i'm anne. i'm a scientist.

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hillary clinton with wall street donors you feneed to hava public and private position. how did hillary clinton try to defend this shocking admission. she didn't deny she said this awful thing. instead, she blamed honest abe. >> up next new polling and the question of honesty. >> that was a good honest abe

line on the debate. >> frank buckley, recently wrote, quote -- >> the late great -- >> let me ask this of trump supporters if he loses can you see yourself supporting the republican party of paul ryan, carly fiorina and jeb bush. neither can i he joins us after this. is it a professor who never stops being a student? is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? yournal success takes a financial partner who values it as much as you do. learn more at tiaa.org you know what, guys? there's a lot of tree branches and dry brush over here. we should probably move the bonfire over there.

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joining us from tampa, florida, co-founder and publisher of real clear politics tom bevin in washington foundation professor at george mason university school of law frank buckley author of the book "the way back restoring the promise of america" and frank helped right donald trump jr.'s speech for the republican convention. wow. good to have you on board. >> god to have both of you with us. first of all, let's talk about the polls. obviously, right now, tom, a massive dip for donald trump. that's not really a surprise. i would have expected the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll if released before the debate to show that much of a dip. any evidence elsewhere that he's falling? do you expect him to bounce back or is this a one-way dive? >> we're going to have to wait and see. we want instant grat fication to see based on the debate

performance whether he was able to stop the bleeding or not, but we're going to have to wait and see. there's really not any data available to us now but to your point, joe, the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll is a snapshot in time obviously and at the height of the frenzy of the tape but it does show this controversy hurt donald trump and hurt the republican party more broadly. i think if you're paul ryan and reince priebus, there was some numbers in there that have to be pretty alarming for them even beyond the dip that donald trump took. >> frank, looks like a lot of republicans are panicking right now. should they be? >> no, i don't think they should be panicking although this is for them the crucial election. i think that if you're a republican, this is your shot at it. >> so you don't think this is like if you called it today would be over and hillary clinton would be the winner? you think -- what's your -- weight your gut on the potential that trump could win this election? >> well, i can't comment on the probabilities. i think it's -- anybody who does

right now, really has just blowing smoke. we don't know what's going to happen in the next month. >> agreed. >> trump has a great ability to bounce back. he may well do so. i hope he does. you know, my book was the only one he plugged during the course of the campaign, so i love the guy. but more importantly, i think that his program is one that would help all americans. >> what programs? what part of his programs specifically? >> well, he's doing things that republicans traditionally have not really much cared about. one of them, for example, is the fact that growth in the economy has been directed towards the top 10% or top 20% and there are a lot of people left behind and he's speaking to them. i think that's really important. you know, mitt romney gave up on them. mitt romney talked about the 47%. that republican party i think is dead. >> yeah. >> the only republican -- >> are you talking about his trade policies? >> what's the depth of which he's speaking about that? >> what policies specifically do

you think are drawing like, for instance, all the people last night in pennsylvania out to him? >> well, i think corruption is a big part of it. for the traditional republicans there is a sense they were too cozy with washington, that we have a real problem with corny capitalism and i expect trump would do something about that. he would do something about reigning in lobbyists and the way they contribute to political parties and ending the revolving door between k street and the hill. he is the only candidate who would take on that problem. we have the biggest concentration of power and influence of any country at any time and he represents the opposition. this is also a country where people have given up on the idea that their sons will have it better off than they did. that was t idea of my book. and he's the candidate for that. so i think we'll see a very close race. and what's going to happen i don't know.

>> mr. buckley, talking about corruption and special interests and the economy, should donald trump be talking more about those things and less about the clintons' personal life? >> i would like to see him talking about issues. i've had it up to here with all the personal stuff truthfully. i mean it's not unimportant but it's largely a distraction. we should be talking about what the country will be like in 2017 and who will be the president and what the policies will be. that's going to matter. >> so mr. buckley, off of that, let me ask you, let's just take a specific time frame here. let's say the last three weeks, the last month, when is donald trump ever spoken to those things? >> well, he's -- he began to speak about them and -- in the last debate, i expect that's going to be the theme of the campaign in the next month. >> and i'm going to go to tom about the polls coming up, but frank, i just -- the -- the comments on that tape, i mean,

you find that -- you're able to overlook that? >> no, i don't overlook it. i'm not comfortable with it. but i would put it in context. it's -- let me put it this way. a 70-year-old is not the same thing as a 60-year-old. maybe you guys don't get it but it's true. yeah, i'm sure he refwretss it for all sorts of reasons and i'm sure it would have nothing to do with the trump administration. >> all right. tom bevin, i would like to ask you, this is -- is this donald trump's tweet? >> brand new. >> brand new tweet from donald trump, supposed to say despite winning the second debate s in a landslide, every poll, it's hard to do well when paul ryan and others give zero support. i don't know if every poll has said that but what polls should we be looking for in the days to come? >> well, we should be looking for national polls which hopefully will have by -- >> when? >> end of the week. >> okay. >> couple days.

assuming pollsters went in the field on monday right after the debate, you know, and taking a three-day sample hopefully we will have stuff by the end of the wee and looking at -- of the week and looking at more battleground polling coming out by the end of the week beginning of next week as well. >> what poll would donald trump be citing saying he won the debate by aland slide? >> i don't know. you'll have to ask him. >> okay. >> let me make one more point about the nbc news/"wall street journal" poll and the republican party. i mean, i think you guys have mentioned this. two-thirds of respondents said that gop congressional candidates should support donald trump even after this tape. and that is -- that is a real dilemma for the candidates out there because they need the trump base to turn out. because if they don't, they lose. but if they embrace donald trump, they risk alienating moderates, independents, women, that is a dangerous risk for them to be -- place for them to be with just three weeks left until the election. >> tom bevin, thank you very

much. frank buckley, thank you as well. and still ahead, our political roundtable with nbc's casey hunt and "the new york times" magazine, robert draper. we'll be right back. americans are buying more and more of everything online. and so many businesses rely on the united states postal service to get it there. because when you ship with us, your business bemes our business. that's why we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. the united states postal service. priority: you

i spent many years as a nuclear missile launch officer. if the president gave the order we had to launch the missiles, that would be it. i prayed that call would never come. [ radio chatter ] self control may be all that keeps thesmissiles from firing. [ sirens blearing ] i would bomb the [ beep] ouof them. i want to be unpredictable. i love war. the thought of donald trump with nuclear weapons scares me to death. it should scare everyone. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message.

still ahead, some day you will have to explain to your grandchildren about the year the republican presidential nominee tried to shame the democrat about cutting entitlements. >> that crooked hillary supports cutting medicare and social security benefits one more example of how hillary clinton's public position is a lie. she wants to knock the hell out of your social security. she wants to knock the hell out of your medicare and medicaid and i'm going to save them. okay. this is a little reversal for the democrat/republican but i'm going to save them. >> dr. jeffrey sachs joins us ahead with what needs to be done about the exploding national debt. we'll be right back. look at alls

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i think we have to go where the money is and the money is with people who have taken advantage of every single break in the tax code. >> i will bring our energy companies back. they will be able to compete, they'll make money, they'll pay off our national debt, they'll pay off our tremendous budget deficits, which are tremendous.

>> hillary clinton is looking to pay the bills by taxing the rich. donald trump, meanwhile, insists energy resources can dig us out of a $19 trillion hole. >> we're back? >> with a soaring federal debt. our next guest says clinton's plan barely scratches the surface, while trump's proposals are quote fantasy land. stop it. >> scratch the surface. you're going to see the light. >> how are you? >> i'm good, jeffrey, how are you? >> very good, thank you. >> this is something we both complained about for a very long time. it seems like every four years we talk about how neither candidate has any plan to save entitlements and america from the crushing debt and it's no better this year, is it? >> well trump is completely bizarre because he would completely gut the budget and the revenue, so we could put that aside as totally absurd. >> right. >> what hillary is saying, has a small useful bit of truth to it, which is we have to collect more

revenues from those who aren't paying and the big companies are a big part of that. >> right. >> you look at companies like apple and amazon and others that have put all their international profits in protected tax havens, that's a money we should be getting. what i'm worried about is we spent trillions of dollars on wars that could well continue in the way that all of this tough talk is going, so we're way over extended militarily. >> so what do we do as far as just the exploding costs? the exploding costs for medicare, social security, medicaid, it seems to me, you're exactly right. we have to address this holistically, but a huge part of it is it's just math. you have two people ten years from now working for everyone on social security and medicare instead of 15 people. >> on medicare and medicaid, the huge correctable problem is the drug prices are out of control because we have this crazy system where we say you have a

monopoly and we won't negotiate with you so you set any price you want, so we have a very good new drug on hepatitis c which costs a dollar a pill to take, and the company -- >> jeffrey. >> can i finish my sentence? >> you said something that's actually fascinating and i would like you to illuminate. >> i would be delighted. >> stop talking so i can ask you. are you telling me that the federal government doesn't negotiate with big pharma? >> medicare is not allowed to. >> they're not allowed to? >> yes. >> that's illuminating, and i wanted our people. breathe that in. now explain that. why in the world would the federal government that has probably the greatest buying power on the planet, why wouldn't they force big pharma to negotiate with them? that just seems stupid. >> because big pharma funds all of the congressional races. and so they have paid for the senators and congressmen over the years.

so in 2003, when they extended medicare to cover drug prices, inhe last moment, the lobbyists put in a clause which says you will not negotiate. >> i have to stop you again. >> okay. >> so you're telling me that the institution that has the greatest buying power on this planet is not allowed to negotiate, medicare is not allowed to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies over the price of the gazillions of pills and drugs that they purchase from big pharma? >> precisely. >> outrageous. i just threw my pen in the air. i'm so glad you stopped. >> joe, could i tell you an example? >> yes. i would love that. see, aren't you glad we stopped so we could all -- >> it's good. >> give us an example. >> we have a wonderful new drug to cure hepatitis c, which

otherwise kills. it costs a dollar a pill to make. the company that bought the patent that didn't make the drug, it pbought the patent, charges $1,000 for that pill. >> what's the company? >> it's gilead sciences. >> and i'll tell you something else interesting, which is they are making every year now, about $15 billion of profits on their sales in the u.s., paid for the u.s. government, and where are those profits residing? they're residing in ireland, tax free. because they also abuse the tax system. so this is why the deficit is so large. >> where is the justice department on things like that? >> nowhere. nowhere at all. >> we're talking about the passage of the affordable care act where they re-enforced all of this. >> all of this is absolutely the lobbying at work, and that's what busts the budget. >> we're going to do something right now. alex, i want you to give me a full screen for the u.s. capitol

switchboard. 202- -- hold on. jeffrey sachs, a lot of influencers watch this show. a lot of people watchhis show. what do they need to ask their congressman, their senator today. is it just as simple as pass a law that allows the u.s. government to negotiate prices, the best prices, with big pharma? that insists they set rational, sensible prices for the drugs they buy. >> they can negotiate? >> negotiate. >> okay. free marketers all over america, call if you will 202-224-3121 today. we'll be putting the number up on the screen. and demand of your congressmen and your senator, call it white house, too, and demand, because they were part of the affordable care act fix, this deal with big pharma, demand that they are

allowed, the federal government is allowed to negotiate prices with medicare. >> that's correct. >> unbelievable. here's the number. call the capitol switchboard. i'm telling you, i have been saying for years. i have been saying for years, and jeffrey sachs has been saying the same thing. the entitlement crisis is going to cripple this country. now, there's some things that are going to be hard for us to figure out. this one is not one of those. jeffrey and i disagree on letting free market forces into health care. well, i think this is a great place for it to be. all right. we have all this buying power as a nation. there is no reason we can't negotiate the toughest, the lowest, the most bare bone fair prices with big pharma. call 202-224-3121 today. >> something washington could do. or we could just talk about it. >> you're telling me that it was not only medicare part d, where

they fixed it, but they re-enforced that fix, according to mark halperin, so government can't negotiate prices. >> they don't at all. >> during the affordable care act. that was cooked in the books. >> and you see across the board medicines are marked up ten times, 100 times, 1,000 times. >> keep that number up. >> and the government says, oh, okay, or they don't treat people. >> the number, it costs a cadolr to make and they sell it for $1,000. >> the company. >> gilead sciences, and it is sol vauty and har vony. they charge for a cure that would cost about $100. they are charging $85,000 for the basic cure. $95,000 for the one with an added medicine to it. and you know what's happening, which is incredible? veterans who are dying of

hepatitis c are being turned away from the v.a. and other places because they said we can't afford this. you're not sick enough. you come back when you're sick enough, and then -- >> so you're telling me it's not only medicare that can't negotiate with big pharma. the v.a. can't negotiate with big pharma. >> they can't get the price down to where it needs to be. they have a little bit of negotiating, but they don't have it anywhere close to where it needs to be. >> medicare and medicaid, that's where all the money is. >> that's where a lot of the sick people are, and the sick people are dying in this country because of these mark-ups and then this company does not pay its taxes because -- you know, for something that is paid by the u.s., it's a u.s. patient, the profits are in the u.s., it's booked in ireland. >> 202-224-3121. bring the free market to medicine and call your congressman and senator today, and insist, tell them that you're on to them. you know that they're scamming

you. that you know that they're getting money from big pharma, and so you're getting screwed. we're all getting screwed. patients are getting screwed, and our children are going to grow up in a country that's bankrupt. call them today and start raising hell. we'll be right back. a digital , so you can see our confusion. ge is an industrial company that actually builds world-changing machines. machines that can also communicate digitally. like robots. did you build that robot? that's not a robot, that's my coworker earl. he builds jet engines with his human hands. what about that robot? thats a vending machine, ricky. john, give him a dollar. well, if you want to sing out,ing ou♪ ♪and if you want to be free, be free♪ ♪'cause there's a million things to be♪ ♪you know that there are

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the minute that tape came out, hurricane matthew just disappeared from television. the only channel that continued their round the clock coverage of the hurricane was fox news, because they didn't want to talk about the trump tape. even the weather channel was like, to hell with this. let's go with the trump tape. the only person mentioning

disaster on a national level was donald trump. >> obamacare is a total disaster. the education is a disaster. what that's going to do is a disaster. perhaps the greatest disaster. iraq was a disaster. i think aleppo is a disaster. obamacare is a disaster, which would be a disaster. it was disasdisaster. take a look at the senate run, upstate new york. >> your two minutes is up. >> a disaster. >> a disaster. >> disaster. good morning. the whole thing is a disasdisas. tuesday, october 11ing, welcome to "morning joe" with us on set, we have veteran columnist, mike barnicle, and the manager editors of bloomberg politics and cohosts of "with all due respect," mark halperin and john heilemann. nbc/"wall street journal" poll taken over the weekend shows hillary clinton in the lead nationally among likely voters by 11 points. 46% to 35%, in a four-way race

with gary johnson at 9% and jill stein at 2%. in a two-way race, the gap is larger. clinton ahead by 14 points. 52 to 38. that's a seven-point swing in her direction. among viters, more are motivated by support for clinton, 44% against trump, while 52% of trump voters are motivated by opposition to clinton. 37% support for trump. when asked if the 11-year-old access hollywood recording of trump should be an issue in the campaign, 52% of likely voters said yes. 42% said no. >> okay, enough numbers. it just keeps going. when republicans asked if they would like to see a martian one day eat a lamb chop, 43% said yes. >> i'm not a republican, but i would want to see that. >> 67% said they would support

trump if he were next to the lamb. let me ask you this, john heilemann, this does matter as far as this latest blow-up by trump. even if, let's say things are level a week from now. it matters now because in florida and other important states, voting has begun. so actually, you know -- >> now i get it. >> this ain't july where you can go, well, you know, he's got time. this matters because people are voting right now. >> okay. >> yeah. >> thank you. >> yes. you mean it matters in terms of them tackiking the poll? >> we're at a point where it's more than just a snapshot in time, more than just a moment in time. people are voting right now. >> look, i don't have the objection you guys have. i'm interested in that snapshot of time, the poll that happens between the scandal and the debate and we'll have plenty of polling to show what the effect of the debate wruz. i'm happy tosy a series of

snapshots. >> we just didn't have one for 18 months before. i exaggerate, a week and a half after the debate. so what do you think as far as this lead? what are all the negative impacts? that it's going to have on trump, from fund-raising to early voting to organizing? because i had a lot of people out last night cheering him on, but what's the long-term impact? >> it always comes back to haley barbour and his dictum in politics, good gets bet sxr bad gets worse. there's a lot of stories for hillary clinton that would be negative stories. she's campaigning with al gore that could be covered in a negative way. instead, he's just behind the eight ball every day and every news cycle. through the prism not now of the tape, first of the video, and now of the polls. >> i don't know if haley barbour said it but he should have. there's another victim i go by, which is you never are as bad as

they say you are and you're never good as you think you are. >> and they're in conflict, those two expressions. >> there are exceptions. >> i think in this case, it's the second haley barbour, because you're going to see, i believe, i could be totally wrong, i think you're going to see a bounce back of trump. not going to be 14 points. it's just not. it's going to get tighter. >> but it could be seven points. >> but it won't be 14. >> right. he needs to change the dynamic of the race. >> well, he is. >> one of the more interesting -- >> he has. >> one of the more interesting questions you could ask in a poll that has not been asked is the following question. would you be happy or unhappy if the election were over today? and i suspect happy would win 80% to 90% of those polled because people are sick of both of these candidates, and they're truly sick of this campaign. >> yeah. >> truly sick of it. >> he changed the dynamic in a

race, but in a way is not to his benefit. >> you know that for sure? >> well, i was with him yesterday. everything he's done -- i know we disagee about how he performs in the debate, but everything he's done in the last 48 hours has been, like, he's just campaigning for 35% of america. >> yeah. >> he's running a base campaign now to make -- to get people who love him already to shake their fists. >> you have to -- you have to -- we have to keep this in perspective. on friday and saturday, he was a political equivalent of dead on arrival. they found him in a ditch on the side of the road, and everybody said, he's not going to make it. >> everyone was saying it's over. >> he's dead. a doctor said we can remake him. we can make it, $6 million man. no, but his campaign was dead. and he would not have survived until monday if he had not changed the dynamic, as you said. so right now, 35% for a man who

was dead on friday is not a bad place to start. >> a sugar high. >> a sugar high. >> you don't understand. if you're about to die and your chose is, i can die or they can stick those things on my chest that really hurt, i'm going to take that to being dead in the ditch. so of course, you have -- he's fought to live another day. now the question is what does he do with it? >> he's campaigning like a crazy person right now. >> and that's different from? >> at the first event he did yesterday outside pittsburgh that i was at, he was the first rally he's done since the revelation of the tapes on friday. >> right. >> okay. he walked out onstage and spent the first five minutes of the event talking about how close he is to ben roethlisberger. donald trump spent the last weekend being accused of condoning and boasting about sexual assault. came out onstage and talked

about how close he is to someone who has been accused of sexual assault twice. >> right. >> with someone who has been accused of rape twice. that's lunacy. it's lunacy. >> well -- >> it's different from a lot of things. there's no one at this table who would say that's a sensible thing for someone to do, to walk out, who has been accused of sexual assault, to boast about their closeness. it's nuts. >> but you're so shocked. >> a lot of things he's done over the last year and a half have been nuts. >> yes, well. >> and he won the republican nomination. his campaign was over on friday. it's not over now. and i want to talk to my friends in romper room land, i can see you with my mirror, and i want to make sure before you start tweeting really stupid things that will make my teeth hurt that you understand that i'm not condoning any of this. i'm saying he had a choice.

lets his campaign die or does his campaign live? and he chose to keep his campaign alive. that's morally repugnant to you. his very existence, as jack nicholson would say at the end of "a few good men" is morally repugnant to you, but politically, the decision was made. i am not going to quit this race. and that's where donald trump is right now. now, i suspect he lives to survive until the end of the day, and maybe he lives to survive with a hard core 38% of the vote. but he would rather do that than be out of the race in early october. >> the depressing thing is i disagree with you. i do think his campaign is over. it will continue. it will continue. but the reason that it will continue is hillary clinton. because you just never know from day to day, i mean, the release of these wikileaks e-mails. there's always something there about the clinton campaign and about the candidate herself.

in addition to the fact that the other evening during the debate, the combined verbiage from both of them didn't illicit one inspirational feeling in american voters. >> it was ugly. >> that's what people are looking for in a candidate for the president of the united states, and it's not been there. >> donald trump was in pennsylvania yesterday. maybe he did it there. not really. he made it clear he had no intention of backing off the pressure he's been applying on hillary clinton and bill clinton. >> i was getting beaten up for 72 hours. on all the networks. for inappropriate words 12 years ago. locker room talk, whatever you want to call it. but i said to myself, wait a minute. and i just saw a very inappropriate words, but bill clinton sexually assaulted innocent women, and hillary clinton attacked those women viciously. if they want to release more

tapes, saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about bill and hillary clinton doing inappropriate things. as i outlined last night, bill clinton was the worst abuser of women ever to sit in the oval office. he was a predator. hillary clinton systematically attacked and discredited the victims of bill clinton's sexual harassment and assault. these things aren't written by the media, but they're true. for decades, hillary clinton has been deeply familiar with her husband's predatory behavior, and instead of trying to stop it, she made it possible for him to take advantage of even more women. she put even more women in harm's way and goes out and says, oh, i love women. i'm going to help women. i'm going to help women. she's a total hypocrite. the hypocrisy of the media and our politicians is hard to believe. >> ah. >> this is all off prompter.

it was amazing, after starting with his ben roethlisberger appeal, he went to the teleprompter and read in a much more detailed way than when he brought out those four women, an incredible litany where he listed not just the four women, but a long list of everyone who had a negative association that bill clinton had sexually abused, in his framing. >> allegedly sexually abused. >> his framing is clinton is a predator. he called him the devil. encouraged everybody to chant "lock her up." it was the reddest of red meat speeches. >> you're saying this speech probably wouldn't help in the suburbs of philly? >> it's not a speech designed in any way to talk to any voter that doesn't already love him. it was just a purely -- >> but, again, i hate to try to attach rational political thought to what seems to be

irals irrational to all of us in polite stoit, but yesterday, what did the rnc to yesterday? >> we're back him all the way. >> reince made his decision. >> i don't know if reince was as solid friday night as on monday. >> nobody was. >> again, that's the point. mike pence yesterday, he's behind him. >> but there are now republicans worried about losing the house because of a strategy of winning a third of the vote at the presidential level. >> when do we start talking about what happens to the republican party? again, the most extraordinary thing yesterday was the point you make, reince priebus went one way and paul ryan went the other way. >> paul is still endorsing him. >> yes, but -- >> still endorsing him. >> how could he? >> he's still endorsing him. >> i understand, trust me, i understand that. >> paul ryan is endorsing, by the way, for those of you who don't know, paul ryan is endorsing donald trump.

i don't know if you got that word. >> still holding out the possibility he'll withdraw it. >> right, when the missiles are flying? >> what's it going to take? >> but yet, still stood up in front of his members and said i will not defend with him, i will not campaign with him, i will not say any more about him, and all of you are free to do whatever you want. please, shave your own skins now. this is the moment that we reach two weeks out in 1996 with bob dole where the highest ranking republican in the country turned to his membership and said feel free to do whatever you need to do because the presidential race is over. >> what is incredible, mike barnicle is just ten days ago, we were talking about how the republicans looked like they had a shot. probably a 50/50 shot of holding on to the senate. nobody is saying that this morning. and now, you're starting to hear serious talk about the democrats having a shot at actually taking over the house. that would be extraordinary, and look at the preference for control of congress. the democrats at 49%,

republicans at 42%. guess when the numbers were that bad, mike? do you know when the numbers were that bad for republicans? in the middle of ted cruz's government shutdown. >> the house, the idea that the house would go democratic is truly shocking. i mean, it gives voice to the depth of what trump has done to the republican party in this campaign, which again, the question that i just powed, what happens to that party after election day? >> it's october 11th. everybody is talking like the election is today. let's see what it looks like on october 18th and if trump is closer than a lot of the weasels who have slipped away from the republican party will come right back. that's the biggest problem all along, they have been weasels. if trump looks popular for their people, they support him. when he looks a little less popular, they run away. we'll see if they run back. >> you have the speaker of the house, the most powerful elected republican official in the

country, saying you're on your own. do what you have to do. >> paul ryan is not a stupid man. he knew when he got on the call yesterday and said that he would take a huge backlash from the base of the party, a lot of other republican members of the house, but he's now going to be the leader of saying to people, hillary clinton is going to be president. >> yes. >> the republicans are going to lose control of the senate. the one thing you can do if you care about stopping hillary clinton's policy agenda is keep me as speaker of the house, keep republicans the majority. >> this is not a position of instinct, either. this is a position informed by all the polling republicans are looking at on the house side. ryan is looking at this and saying, you know, we have lost the presidential race. and our majority in the house is in jeopardy. this is the only choice i have right now on the basis of the members. not just the public polls, but everything the party is seeing. >> why wouldn't he just pull his endorsement? what is he clinging to? >> he's trying to minimize the drama what would happen if he did that. but he hasn't ruled out

unendorsing him. i know you're saying what else could it be? he's using his judgment, what's the best way to keep one chamber in conservative control to stop speaker pelosi and majority leader schumer and president clinton from passing a liberal agenda. >> he's trying not to provoke the trump base, either. it feels like disendorsing trump, he would anger a large part of the party, the party's faithful. >> it would hurt a lot of members. >> i don't think -- >> so it's october 11th. i asked this question at the beginning of september. is the race over? and everybody around the table said the race was over. it then tightened up. >> but i'm hearing from you guys that the race is over. >> over. >> so i want to know if i can just relax over the next three weeks or so. because it sure sounds like you all are saying on october 11th with three weeks left that the

race is over. even though we heard from harold wilson that in politics that's a lifetime. john, is this race over? is hillary clinton the next president of the united states? >> minus some exogenous event, yes. >> one of them -- hillary clinton could get hit by a bus. >> that's all you have. all right. so absent -- on your scorecard, absent being hit by a bus, hillary clinton will be the next president of the united states. >> metaphorically. >> a meteor could strike. >> there could be something in the wikileaks dumps that turns out to be genuinely incriminating. >> absence an october surprise -- >> a huge thing. a huge thing. >> hillary clinton is the president. >> the electoral dynamics are locked in. >> i didn't say it was over the last time you polled everybody. i said it was not over. >> is it over now? >> barring some intervening event, and donald trump has to start talking about what he would do to make the lives of

americans better. >> donald trump is not going to change. >> i'm saying if that's the way he behaves, even with some intervening event, he can't win. >> really? so you think hillary clinton is the next president of the united states. >> if he keeps talking about this and not how he would make the lives of americans better, yes. >> mike barnicle? >> it'sover, but the damage to this system and this country is going to beout there for quite a while. >> you can't overstate the extent to which there is chaos within the apparatus of the campaign and the republican party. independent of access hollywood and everything else, they're way behind the clinton campaign in terms of a cohesive organization. that's -- that gives her insurance here if she's ahead by 11 in the polls, she's ahead by more. >> mika, is it over? >> i think it's over, but i think it's been ugly, a blood bath. i think hillary clinton has a huge opportunity here to find her voice in a way that

americans have never seen before and to be really inspiring. i think the opportunity is massive. otherwise, she kind of, you know, it's all been kind of a terrible experience that i think leads to kind of a rough start. i think it could be over. and you? >> i don't think he's over. i think hillary clinton is terrible with a lead. i think donald trump is pretty good with his back up against the wall. and i think there are three weeks, and i think anything can happen over three weeks. listen, if i were betting, but of course, i don't bet. >> today. >> but yes, i would bet hillary clinton would win and i would feel comfortable putting a good bit on there, like a week's salary, $27 and three proof of purchase seals. >> and a carton of cigarettes. >> no, i'm not going to bet that. >> don't want to part with your cools. >> it's three weeks out. i think the thing that surprises me is how everybody's attitude,

go on twitter, it's funny. >> oh, my lord. anything you say is misconstrued. >> like lemmings running from one side of the cliff to the other side to the other side. >> here's the counter to a week is a lifetime in politics. the number of americans who say they'll never vote for him is just too high for him to win right now. >> what was hillary clinton's approval rating in this poll? has it gone up? >> i don't think they released that. >> who do people think are more honest and trustworthy? i understand what you're saying except for when you have the two least popular people in the history of american politics as the party's nominees. >> except when you have a built-in advantage in the electoral college and the demography for democrats. you can't overcome that with someone so many americans say they'll never vote for. >> hillary clinton from young lawyer to the brink of history. robert draper joins us. he's got an illuminating piece in the "new york times" magazine. first, here's bill karins. always illuminating andic

looking at the flood otters that are still plaguing the carolinas. >> word that at 1:45 in the morning just northwest of ft. bragg in vance, north carolina, they issued mandatory evacuations because surf lake, they think the dam is going to fail. imagine that, three days later and still dealing with stuff like this, people evacuated tromtheir homes in the middle of the night. that's a possible, and here's the fayetteville area. that's locating here just to the northwest. these pictures, this isn't the story i was telling you about. this is the neuse river. this is going to affect areas around goldsboro and kinston. that's where the river has yet to peak. you can't tell where the river is in those pictures. that's 10 to 15 inches of rain on saturated story. the other story, in the northwest, northern california through oregon and the pacific northwest, enjoy today. a beautiful day. sunshine, gorgeous fall weather. it's going to rain on and on for three or four days.

we may be talking flooding problems in the days ahead. in the west, temperatures in the 60s. enjoy that, because not menially in your seven-day forecast. in new england, weather will be dry and nice through the upcoming weekend. leaving you with a shot with, where are we going? pop something up for me. d.c. that's a gorgeous start to a cool, crisp morning. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. the itsy bir . down came the rain. ...and clogged the gutter system creating a leak in the roof. luckily the spider recently had geico help him withomeowners insurance. water completely destroyed his swedish foam mattress. he got full replacement and now owns the sleep number bed. his sleep number setting is 25. call geico and see how much you could save on homeowners insurance. but the bestlace toe start is in the forest.

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prop 64 makes marijuana legal in california for adults 21 and over. and here's what else it does: bans marijuana use in public. permits sales only at licensed marijuana businesses, not at grocery or convenience stores. and prop 64 generates a billion in new tax revenue for california to fund after-school programs and job training and placement initiatives. learn more at yeson64.org vote yes on 64. woman: how do we protect them from $4 billion in new cuts to california schools? man: vote yes on proposition 55.

woman: prop 55 doesn't raise taxes on anyone. man: not on working californians, not small businesses. no one. woman: instead, prop 55 simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. man: so those who can most afford it continue paying their fair share... woman: ...to prevent new education cuts... man: ...and keep improving california's schools. woman: vote yes on prop 55 to help our children thrive. kasie hunt joins us from the campaign trail. hillary clinton campaigning today in florida with -- >> al gore. >> plus all six u.s. nobel prize winners this year are immigrants. we're going to talk to one about

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on the video itself, let's be really clear. it is completely indefensible. and i won't defend it and haven't defended it. >> do you think the apology was enough? >> i didn't think it was, on friday or saturday. and i told him that. i would have done it much

differently, but you know, i do think he's sorry, and i do think he's embarrassed by it. no question in my mind about it. i was there when he found out about it. there's no question in my mind, he's embarrassed by it. i'm still supporting donald. i was disappointed by what happened, and you know, disappointed in some respects by the response initially, but i'm still supporting him. >> did cnn do it yet? >> welcome back to "morning joe." >> stop it. >> is the book out or not? >> selected markets. >> that was chris christie this morning defending his support of donald trump. >> hold on a second. hold on. chris christie, though, it wasn't really a strong, robust defense of donald trump. mark halperin, was it? sort of like, he said, well, i didn't like how he apologized. i would have done it differently. >> yeah, well. >> wasn't as strong as they would like in trump tower, but compared to people who have abandoned trump completely, they'll probably take -- it's the least of their worries.

>> isn't he in charge of transition? >> played hillary clinton in debate prep. he's heavily involved. you know, gingrich is critical occasionally, too. he's pretty involved. rudy is like the only one who is consistently onboard. >> yeah. >> all right. >> okay. >> joining us now in miami, msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. kasie, it's back to the future today with clinton/gore. >> yeah, something like that, guys. can i just say on the christie question, i really, really want to know what mary pat christie has been saying to chris christie about donald trump, because i think, you know, do not overestimate her influence or sorry, underestimate her influence. here in florida, back to the future, you're right, with al gore, who is here today with secretary clinton. the goal is to appeal to millennial voters because of what he has come to represent as far as the issue of climate change. i personally -- you know, as an

almost millennial myself, i don't know if they're necessarily squarely in the right camp on that. they also had tim kaine playing with dave matthews band, a similar bid for millennial voters. it seems a little off to me, but that's the goal here. and the other part of it, of course, is the third party question. because of course, al gore almost lost out here to or did in fact lose florida because of ralph nader, who i also talked to a little bit when i was talking to gary johnson and doing a story on third-party candidates. of course, gore's team blaming ralph nader for his loss in florida. now, gore will be here today with this. the voter registration deadline has been extended by a day in the wake of the hurricane. florida, of course, still, i think, really the central battleground here, even in the wake of everything that has come and gone with donald trump and this tape. this is the place, i think, ultimately, where if donald trump is actually still going to

make a play, it's going to be here. it's where his organization is the strongest. it's where the clinton campaign has probably had the most drama in trying to organize. i do think this is the place to watch going forward. i also think the clinton camp has lucked out a little bit with all this news coming on top of the wikileaks, the releases of podesta's e-mails. >> thank you so much. joining the table, author and nbc contributor anand gear idhuh rods. >> and robert draper. his upcoming article focuses on bill clinton's 1980 defeat for re-election in arkansas and how it helped define the hillary clinton we see today. robert writes in part, this. she's been a presence in american public life if more than a third of a century, and yes, for all her ubiquity, she remains a curiously unknown quantity to many voters. it's possible to glimpse the

origins of this paradox in the time between bill clinton's 1980 loss for re-election as arkansas governor and his 1982 victory upon facing the electoral judgment of her persona for the first time, hillary rodham clinton began what has gradually evolved into a precarious shadow game with the american public. a ritualized series of reveals, retreats, and resets, each iteration seemingly more freighted with recrimination and self-doubt than the one preceding it. it was the moment when hillary became hillary, a collaborative creation by herself and her political enemies. both a reflection and a source of the uncertainty and mistrust with which the public has so often regarded her. that's loaded. >> 1978, bill clinton as a.g. elected governor. serves two years, only two-year terms there. is swept out with the reagan

revolution in 1980. and bill clinton scraps his way back to winning again from '82 all the way through '92. we've learned about -- we've heard out the lessons that bill clinton learned. sounds like hillary's lessons, though, were fairly negative ones about her own interactions with the people. >> sure. >> explain. >> a casualty of the 1980 race was the unvarnished version of hillary rodham. that's the name, of course, she went by. i met with a woman named gay white who was the widow of frank white, who succeeded, who beat bill clinton in the 1980 gubernatorial election. frank white was an unknown little rock banker. i think 2% of arkansasens knew who he was, but he sensed a vulnerability. as he and his wife gay white traveled around, particularly rural arkansas, what they heard over and over was people coming up to them saying to gay white,

if you -- if your husband is elected, are you going to -- are you going to change your last name inare you going to stay gay white? and what was clear was that they had a real wariness towards the first lady of arkansas, who at that point in time, was unvarnished, was a 32-year-old full partner at the rose law firm. was also raising her child but privately, not as a political prop. and they registered their sis satisfaction at the polls on a lot of levels, but hillary clinton was one of them. she was in a lot of ways, as gay white put it, an undercurrent. hillary clinton learned from thatsituation. by 1982, h name was now hillary clinton. she had a new wardrobe, new makeup, but most of all, what she had was the first layer of protective armor as she sought a kind of cosmetically reassuring version of herself, but in so doing, began to place distance between her and electorate. the distrust we see is a mutual

one between the voters and her. >> do you agree? >> i think what's so interesting is you think about, she's running against a self-proclaimed genital grabber, who may be on track to losing, but is still getting a third in the most negative scenario of a vast and decent country. and i think the only way to explain that is that kind of reticence that robert's explaining, and the history behind it. but the idea that even in those moments when it's so easy to deliver that knockout, i think there's a fear of the press and of -- and of how she's seen that prevents her from just viscerally connecting. >> i hate to keep bringing this up. i'm sorry. bill clinton and the way he allegedly treated women for decades always has to come back up because if you say a self-proclaimed gent atle grabber when you're talking about donald trump. >> but it's not her fault, right, that bill clinton did

these things. >> no, it's not her fault, but at the same time, she and the democratic establishment -- actually, what i was going to say was there were so many people in 1992, republicans, who sounded just like you. how in the world could a world war ii hero, a humble man like george h.w. bush, lose to a vulgarian, to an alleged sexual abuser, to a draft dodger, to someone who has coarsened american politics by his very existence. i think it's absolutely fascinating that the same thing -- >> i don't think we can compare. >> oh, we can. oh, my god. >> to any figure who has run at that revel. >> have you seen lisa myers' interview with juanita brodrick on dateline? >> this was donald trump himself declaring, this was not allegedly. >> have you read maureen dowd's columns on hillary clinton's roles in enabling her husband's

dehavior. >> i have. but this was the principle declaring it proudly himself. >> i get -- >> it's bill clinton's wife who is running for president. >> they're both deplorable, but as maureen dowd points out -- >> you're putting him in the same basket of deplorables. >> time and time again, as maureen dowd and many others have pointed out, christopher hitchens while he was living, hillary clinton was a part of enabling her husband. so when hillary clinton says, oh, we can't have a man like donald trump. we can't let a man like donald trump be president of the united states. i'm only saying that a lot of people are sounding today about donald trump like republicans sounded in 1992 about bill clinton. >> i just want to say, i think punishing a woman for her husband's infidelities is double jeopardy. >> i'm not. you couldn't conveniently looking past what maureen dowd and christopher hitchens and a lot of people have said about hillary clinton's role in those

episodes. >> and robert's description of this sort of shell she has and why she has it is because there's a truth in there that i think she should own. and by the way, say, you know what, talk to bill clinton about what he's done because i'm not responsible for it, nor did i love it, in fact, it hurt me deeply, and talk to donald trump. >> this hasn't gone the way we expected it to go. please jump in. >> in fact, joe, you mentioned 1992. and how the electorate and in particular, more conservative factions of the electorate, perceived bill clinton. the same would be the case with hillary clinton. she wasn't viewed as a vulgarian, per se, but an avatar of the counterculture. this feminist pat buchanan you'll recall at the 1992 convention, had called her a radical feminist who equated marriage to slavery, and especially when she had said she could have stayed home and baked cookies and had teas, but chose instead to pursue a high flying legal career.

a lot of people objected to that. people sent not only angry phone calls into the little rock headquarters, but also freshly baked cookies, and once again, the response to that was that hillary clinton pulled back her hollywood friends helped device for her a new wardrobe. she began to be in smaller markets, so the response was as it was before, her protectors would overprotect. her attackers would overattack, and the american public would view all of this with a kind of wells distaste for all parties involved. >> i need you two guys to jump in and talk about, maybe you heard it on the campaign trail in '92. i can tell you i heard it wherever i went. again, i'm not saying there's a moral equivalency. i'm just not. i think both activities are deplorable. all i am saying is that it's fascinating to hear people talk about donald trump as if this is the first time that someone who

is perceived as a vulgarian has burst onto the scene when we have talked about ronald reagan in 1980. there was a "wall street journal" editorial about what everybody was saying about thomas jefferson and andrew jefferson in the 1800s. this has all been said and done before. perhaps the coarseness is at a level we have never experienced. but a lot of the attacks are the same. >> we have obviously more media than we ever had. i met them both in 1991. he was open and would tell stories openly about all sorts of things. and she was from the day i met her exceedingly guarded. unlike -- >> talking about bill? >> bill clinton and hillary clinton. >> clinton telling stories. what do you mean? >> on the level trump was telling on the bus? >> gregarious. not saying they were inappropriate, but he would tell ribold stories, and was open. i was saying she was, her experience in arkansas, as

talented as she was and as much as reporters were interested in her, really guarded. >> i first met bill and hillary clinton on the tarmac of an airport in texas, i think it was in san antonio, in october of 1972. when they were running texas. >> the governor. >> for mcgovern. and i have to tell you, bill clinton, he was a very good friend of rick stern's. they went to oxford toord. rick sterns became a judge. he was as charming and open and gregarious as anyone we ever met. flash forward to the middle '80s. he took me aside when we were at a clinton event in arkansas. and he told me, bill and hillary, i said how well do you know them? he said i know them pretty well. they're both trimmers. he meant trimming the truth. that's the evolution at that time. now to today, joe, the biggest difference, and i understand where you're coming from, and i

think i certainly know where you're coming from. the biggest difference between the two people, bill clinton as candidate and the way he's lived his life. donald trump as a candidate and the way he's lived his life, is donald trump's face, name, and voice, are articulating what he did. bill clinton, we don't have tape. >> you have, i didn't have sex with that woman. >> but that's not exactly the same as -- >> you had the starr report. >> i'm sorry, what? >> the starr report, but you don't have bill clinton. >> are you saying -- >> bill clinton is not running for president. >> are you saying it makes it worse if it's on videotape? >> yeah. >> monica lewinsky's deposition. >> lying is better is what you're saying, anand? >> it's not what i'm saying. i'm saying the candidate is not bill clinton this time. it is hillary clinton. >> i agree. >> and hillary clinton has suffered the very things we're talking about. >> i know, which is why she should step forward and say all

these men need to move aside because they cannot think with their brains. >> that i agree with. one of the things we watched on sunday night that didn't get enough attention is at the very beginning, i would say the first 20 minutes when they were talking about the tape, i felt for the first time that i have watched hillary clinton that she kind of fell into herself and had that, was speaking rfrom th gut about this in a way that she's normally very much in her head. and i think if she can summon that, it was already lost by the end of the debate as far as i could tell, but if she could summon that for the next four weeks. >> she nee to summon that. she does. she needs to say i'm tired of taking responsibility for these idiots who cannot use their brains when it really matters. who do things in the white house or trump tower or whatever, because they can't think with their brains. i can think with my brain and my gut, and i'll run this country like you have never seen before. i'm serious. like, she's got to just shed

herself of this guard, which protects these men. by the way, she protects them just as much as anybody else. >> paul begala and james carville said bill clinton is a good man who did a bad thing. you don't hear a lot of democrats willing to say that about donald trump now. >> why, what's the difference? >> hold on. i'm sorry. >> because he lies? >> mika, hold on. so wait, are you saying carville and begala were saying the monica thing, he's a good man who did a bad thing. >> yeah, and just as you said a lot of women in impeachment? >> as if this wasn't a long string of behaviors of bill clinton enabled by hillary clinton? >> joe, if i could interject on this. further to hillary's performance of the debate, i think that she did have an opportunity to address the whole enabling question. she could well have said, look, this was a traumatic thing for me, played out on an

international level. and i didn't handle it optimally, and had she said something like that, i think it could have at least, if not laid to rest concerns about her behavior towards these other women, but at least would have been mollifying to a lot of people in the electoral. i think that was a missed opportunity in what was otherwise a superb debate for her. >> robert, your story suggests -- your story explains why she didn't do that. why at the beginning of the e-mail crisis, she didn't do that at the united nations. why she didn't do that. it's just not in her because she's learned to be as protective as possible. >> she's learned not to trust us, basically. every time that she has -- >> trust herself. she's so good. >> every time she has put herself out there, she's come to feel the animus of the american public. that's not to excuse a lot of her behavior, but that's certainly bipart of the dynamic. >> there's a level of paranoia. what do they say about that? >> mistaken belief people are out to get you.

>> no, no, paranoia in washington. just because you're paranoid doesn't mean everybody isn't out to get you, because they are. >> anand, thank you. robert draper, we'll read your new cover story. >> so you're telling me she knows how to correct your name correctly. >> thank you. we'll be back in a moment.

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let's defeat her in november. [ chanting "lock her up" ] >> very, very sad. special prosecutor, here we come, right? if i win, we're going to appoint a special prosecutor. >> why were they chanting "lockerbie"? is it about his golf course, what is that? >> not mutually exclusive. he has gone for 33% of the vote.

i mean, solid 33%, hard core. but that -- >> going to be a heck of a tv network. good tv audience. what did you learn today, mike? >> i learned that i find it increasingly depressing watching the candidate for president of the united states run for president of bright eitbart ngz. >> mark, what did you learn today? >> i learned that the beatles are constantly fascinating story. never get tired of the beatles. >> where do the beatles come from? >> liverpool. >> why? >> because you mentioned the ron howard documentary we're all going to watch, and other stuff. >> and other stuff. >> anand, what did you learn today? >> that predatory male sexual behavior from a lot of people -- >> a lot of people. >> one of the only good things to come out of this moment is that is now elevated to the highest stage and leer we're thinking about the ubiquity of

that behavior, the way women are stalked on the street every day and not just on debate stages. and i hope there's some good that comes out of an electoral conversation about that that spills into american life. >> i think a woman president would really help with the situation. i actually mean that quite seriously. >> what did you learn today? >> that's it right there. hillary clinton needs to own it and just sort of say it's time. i would say play the woman card. right now, that's looking pretty good. these guys are looking pretty pathetic. they have no discipline, and then they try to cover it up over years and years of basically harassing women, abusing them, misbehaving, and then being protected. let's stop. let's elect a woman president. >> what did you learn, joe? >> well, you know, anand spoke of elevating. and i learned that my hair has a long way to go. >> what? >> and just to be elevated. >> right. that's true. >> i'm a weak second.

you know -- >> you're a strong second. >> wow. >> no, not a strong second. i'm more like, who is second behind secretary at the belmont stakes? >> the string thing is your hair leans left. >> constantly look at -- >> sham. was it sham? who was in second place? >> let's just stop. >> phone lines are open now. >> stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. thank god. >> thank you, mika, thank you, joe. i'm stephanie ruhle. this morning, an all out war. donald trump versus the world, doubling down on jailing hillary clinton. >> lock her up is right. >> threatening to dredge up more clinton scandals. >> if they want to release more tapes saying inappropriate things, we'll continue to talk about bill and hillary clinton doing inappropriate things. >> as the gop verges on implosion. house speaker