back on the trail today, holding two events in iowa. >> that's going to do it for us on this wednesday. i'm betty nguyen alongside alex witt and louis burgdorf. "morning joe" starts right now. >> donald trump tweeted up a storm today. he really did. he he lashed out at a number of republicans, the ones distancing themselves from him. he called paul ryan a weak and ineffective leader and called john mccain foul mouth and said democrats are more loyal than republicans are. he tweeted this. it's so nice that shackles have been taken off me and i can now fight for america the way i want to. this is how he's been behaving with the shackles on? [ applause ] >> good point. good morning. it's wednesday, october 12th. >> shackles are coming off. i'm excited. >> it's about time. >> put them back on. >> we're going to have a campaign worth watching. >> took the shackles off him

last night. >> i don't think i want to know about your personal life. >> with us on set, we've got veteran columnist and msnbc contributor -- >> a legend. >> managing editor of bloomberg politics mark halperin. and in nashville, tennessee, pulitzer prize winner jon meacham. less than four weeks and friction within the republican party, if you could call it that, what would you call it? wedges? it's at a new high. >> wedgeies. >> what? >> would you call it friction in the republican party? >> no. >> i would call it a massive food fight. >> everybody is doing what's in everybody's best interest. this is in trump's best interest. >> maybe everyone ought to have gone with their gut in the beginning and had spines. would have helped, right? >> the thing is -- we're going

to show this in a second. everyone is sitting there saying why don't paul ryan completely distance himself from donald trump. the fact is -- >> waffling works. >> good morning, mika. so good to see you. the fact is that donald trump is actually a lot more popular in the republican party than paul ryan. it's not as simple as us sitting around a set in manhattan think it is. >> on one hand i do think he's half in, half out. are you behind him or you not? i still endorse him. voting for him. i will not support him. whatever that means. on the other hand, he's always been a unique case in that he had to keep a caucus together and help people win elections in places where donald trump is very important -- popular. >> can you redefine what he just said? is he more popular than paul ryan or more well known? >> in the republican party.

his positives -- we'll just read it. >> look at the survey from "usa today." >> i'm about facts and details. i'm data driven. every decision i make even when what i drink, what i eat, zeros and ones. it's the saban metrics of life. i do everything the same. i wake up. eat the same. do you not think -- >> it's true. >> all right. look at this survey why "usa today" completed last night. extremely high lack of support for donald trump. among the party's highest ranking office holders. of the 331 republican governor, senators and members of congress, 87 are not endorsing trump's candidacy. that's more than one in four. one in four. >> let's stop right there.

now everybody sneers but in a change election when everybody hates washington, d.c., is this a bad thing that senators and congressman that have a low approval rating aren't endorsing a candidate who is running against hillary clinton and beat a bush? >> i'm not sure he's handling it positively because being anti-washington change candidate -- >> so you say he's fighting. he's a fighter. >> george bush did the same thing. went after congressional republicans when he was running. it's helpful in the current environment. again, if all of the coverage of your campaign is you're fighting with other people and your own party, that's not, i don't think, a great dominant message to have. >> well, it is a message that you probably need to have if you

were close to political death three or four or five days ago where you're going out and fighting everybody. there was a moment when we tried to chase newt gingrich out of of town on a coup and it blew up in our face and people were scared and ran home. i turned to a friend and i said in cases like this, you were either the hunter or you were the hunted. what would you like to be? and we went hunting. politically. because if we didn't, we would have been dead. we would have been stripped of our committees. we would have lost reelection. it would have been a nightmare. donald trump has no choice than to do what he's doing right now. the media can't see past their shear hatred of him. their uncontrollable shear hatred of donald trump. we can all be offended by what he did. we're still supposed to report, but the shear hatred is stopping

analysts from realizing he's doing the only thing he can do right now to keep his campaign alive. hold the core together and use the last two weeks to expand. i'm not so sure that right now this isn't exactly what he needs to do to survive. >> yesterday trump leveled a multistate, multiplatform assault on the party's leadership for abandoning him. began at tweets aimed at the speaker of the house. "despite winning the second debate in a landslide, it's hard to do well when paul ryan and others give zero support. our weak and ineffective palead, paul ryan, had a bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty. disease loyal rs are far more difficult than crooked hillary.

they come at you from all sides. they don't know how to win. i will team them. >> the media hates them. what do you think someone in iowa, a republican that lost five out of the last six presidential elections in the popular vote when they hear that, what kind of impact? they don't know how to win. get out of my way. i'll teach them. get out of the way. >> it may influence a republican in iowa. it may influence a republican who sort of has an affinity for donald trump. get people onboard. expand. that leaves you a week and a half to expand who is going to vote for you and make you president. my point is he's talking to the base that he had during the primary. he's reassuring them he's fighting a machine. that's not enough to win a general election. what's the next step to grow the pie? >> the thing is he had a chance of losing that core this past

weekend. you bring your core together. the troops are scattered on the battlefield. you bring them all together. you get the core together. you move forward. he has to count on two things. one, people feel like hillary clinton is disqualified by how they feel about her. two, he's got to hope for wikileaks revelations coming out and, three, mike barnicle, he has to hope for the reverse bradley effect that there are millions of people, and i suspect there are, that are saying they won't vote for donald trump will go into a voting booth and vote for donald trump. wherever we go, we hear it all the time. >> i don't think it's going to -- >> maybe he has a 20% chance of winning. i don't think this race is over. >> it's not over. it's not over until it's over. thank you, yogi. i don't think donald trump is thinking about anyone in iowa or anyone in pennsylvania. i don't think he's thinking about the voters. i think he's only thinking about

himself. he's certainly not thinking about your party, joe, the republican party. >> of course not. >> he's disassembling this party piece by piece by piece. what's going to happen after the election, job number one, how do you rebuild the republican party? what's left of it? it's going to be fragmented into a certain section of a trump party that's going to be out there for quite some time after this election is over. >> i think what he's thinking about right now is not iowa, not the republican party, not the future of the republican party, it will help reporters if they understand this. he's thinking about survival. survive this week. end this friday stronger than you ended last week with the tapes when they came out. i've got to say that right now nobody is talking about billy bush. if he hadn't done this, everybody would be talking about billy bush, "access hollywood" and that tape. >> trump continued to slam republican leaders at a private

fund-raiser yesterday afternoon in san antonio, texas, where according to the texas tribune he said leaders forgot there was an election because something happened in the last month where you didn't see them, right? why aren't they on the shows? why aren't they all over the place? trump brought up ryan's 2012 vice presidential candidacy saying this guy lost four years ago in like a landslide. last night trump spoke with fox news where he commented more on ryan and explained his tweet. it's so nice that the shackles have been taken off me and i can now fight for america the way i want to. >> you say, okay, the shackles are off and now i can really do what i want. i mean, what are you going to do that you haven't done? are you going to be more outspoken? >> i don't think i'm that outspoken to be honest with you. >> come on. >> i'm not outspoken at all. i think i've been very nice. i think we should get support and we don't get the support from guys like paul ryan.

he had a conference call yesterday with hundreds of congressmen and they practically rioted against him on the phone. one person stuck up for him. if you sneeze, he calls up and announces isn't that a terrible thing. i don't want his support. i don't care about his support. >> if you're elected president, you're going to need mccain and you're going to need ryan. you're going to need these guys. >> they'll be there. i would think that maybe ryan wouldn't be there. maybe in a different position. >> while donald trump had a lot to say about paul ryan yesterday, the house speaker didn't have much to say about trump. his office released a one sentence statement. "paul ryan is focusing the next month on defeating democrats and all republicans running for office should probably do the same." this as the latest you gov poll taken friday through saturday those ryan is less popular with republican primary voters than

trump is. ryan had a 16-point net favorable rating. worth noting, trump's very favorable rating is 34% while ryan's is only 13 and it's not just republican primary voters. trump is more popular than ryan among all republicans period. ryan net positive 23 points to trump's net positive 48 points. >> let's keep this up for a very long time and explain it's not about paul ryan. i love paul ryan. i have actually ideologically been aligned with paul ryan. you look at these numbers, trump up 20 in favorables over paul ryan. ryan's unfavorables are higher. this is even in among primary voters. this is what the establishment doesn't understand. they will never understand. i saw it declared 14 times in

three seconds that paul ryan was the leader of the party. he got 60 million votes. he's leader of the party. i heard him say it on chris matthews. bad news. american enterprise institute, the republican leadership, and all of the fundraisers, paul ryan is not the leader of the party. the party believes donald trump is the leader of the party. that is the conundrum that every republican from pennsylvania to oregon faces. >> what do republicans want above all else? they want someone to stop hillary clinton from being president and they want washington to be shaken up and fundamentally changed. paul ryan can't do those two things. only one person can. >> i want to talk about a man who is responsible for a picture that many of us will be remembering 50 years from now. that is the photographer in your closet announced you won the pulitzer prize. we don't know how he got there.

mika and i are shy about cameras. wee keep them away from us. you won't see images of us ever. anywhere. anywhere. so anyway, you look at those numbers, and i can't help think of the scene that everybody loves talking about with andrew jackson during his inauguration where he invites the people in and he has to sneak out the back window because they trashed the white house. that's what's happening to the republican party right now. andrew jackson started a political revolution. >> right. this is a classic populist moment. i think when we look back on this, one of the things to study is how brilliantly trump has mastered the culture and the media culture. if this were an election for ringmaster, it would be over. you said it a second ago.

exactly right. five days ago the question was will he stay in the race because of the "access hollywood" tape. he understands the way to change that story was, a, the debate but to attack someone else in the center of the ring. he pulls paul ryan in. >> before that, he drags poor bill clinton into the center of the ring and surrounds him with accusers. that changes the headlines quickly. now it's paul ryan and the republican party, right? >> and it's been this way for a couple years. he really has understood the narrative culture in an intuitive way that i think any candidate going forward is going to have to study. that may be the only thing they study about trump. there are two campaigns going on it seems to me. one is you have this ringmaster who is trying to manage and

marshal the conservative rououte and you have secretary clinton running as a realist grown-up. there's no more conventional candidate certainly since george h.w. bush who has put herself forward. so you really have two campaigns that really don't seem to be intersecting very much. >> you know, jonah goldberg tweeted last night. he said donald trump stopped running for president a long time ago and he's now running to put together a tv network. now, we've suggested that in the past as well. don't know if that's the case or not. i will tell you if that's what you were doing, this is pretty damn perfect strategy. what you're doing is you're melting down your support to a core. i think his core is still 35, 36, 37, maybe 38%. it may not be today.

the more he beats the hell out of washington, d.c. including his own party, the more that core expands. maybe slowly but he saves himself politically and if he does start a tv network later, if jonah goldberg is right, then this is the move for him. >> that would be a very lucrative -- and powerful television -- >> mark halperin is about to burst. >> i think you're underestimated the anger in that 38% if he loses to hillary clinton. the current people who support him will be really angry. >> do you know who they'll be angry at? >> angry at the media first. paul ryan second. angry at mitch mcconnell and the republican establishment. >> some of them i think will be really angry at him too. he's promised he's going to win. he ran for the nomination saying

he could only be the one to beat her. >> they're stabbing me in the back. how am iupposed to win if paul ryan and republican leaders in washington keep standing me in the back. >> some will buy it. >> there's an element to this and it refueled itself yesterday in pennsylvania with donald trump. he's more dangerous than dynamite. >> look at those fans. >> it fits into what mark is saying. we're going to be left -- the carnage after this election, we'll be left with i don't know what percentage. 30%, 35% out there who will be more than angry. they'll be convinced that as he points out consistently now the election is rigged. it's fixed. it's against him and thus it's against you. you're going to have a permanent class, 30%, 35% of the people so bitter and so angry -- >> we have it now. >> they're going to have a voice. >> they'll have place to go.

>> let's say he got 40% of the vote. who would your brother be mad at? >> my brother would be mad at the media for rigging it. mad at hillary clinton. he'll be mad at hillary clinton thinking she should be in jail right now. he'll be mad at paul ryan. he'll be mad at joe scarborough. he will be mad at all of us. he's not going to be mad at donald trump. none of them are. >> is he going to believe the election is rigged? >> within two years he builds a media empire that rivals all of the others on cable and the internet. a real truck. >> we'll talk metrics later. i'll ask joe for help on that. >> o'reilly said don't trash ryan and mccain and these guys, you'll have to work with them when you become president. he doesn't care about that. he's trying to get to the finish line, if he does become president, he'll worry about that later. he wants to do whatever it takes to get there. if he doesn't, then he's left as

having stood on his principles and he stuck to his guns. the message of his campaign, which is to rail against the establishment and then he has that pocket of people with him after the election. >> i need to get to these polls. >> he's fighting to live another day. he's not sitting there thinking my first 100 days i'm wondering regulatory reform -- he's not thinking that. i have to survive another day. hour to hour. >> first of all, we're going to show you coming up hillary clinton and al gore. it's veep on crack. >> it is. >> if you watch it and you think veep, you will honestly not be able to concentrate. >> i was looking for dreyfus through the whole thing. >> she was there. new national poll numbers show hillary clinton with a nine-point lead over donald trump after sunday's presidential debate. the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll gives a snapshot of before and after the debate

in a four-way matchup two days before the debate clinton led trump by 11. in the day after the debate, that margin was down to 7. in a two-way race, clinton was leading trump by 14%. 52 to 38 before the debate. after the debate that margin was down to seven as well. >> so we had heard over the weekend the poll that was taken in the midst of the political storm, which is kind of like going to south carolina in the middle of a hurricane and saying what do you think of weather in south carolina? >> how often does it rain here? >> ds it ever rain? do you approve or disapprove? >> do you get wind gusts? >> do you disapprove or approve of south carolina weather? that's when they took the poll. >> come on. >> so he's down by seven right now. i think the debate probably was not as bad for him as some people suggest. >> good lord. don't open your computer today. >> still ahead on --

>> for what? telling the truth? the guy jumped seven points. >> did he win the debate mark halper halperin? >> by most ways if you say who won the debate, he won the debate. >> i'm taking the attention off of you by making mark halperin say that. >> the thing is, i said back in december i couldn't vote for donald trump. i said in february he was disqualified. i am in a position and i said i was voting for jeb bush from the beginning. the media is so invested in this, i think it's like -- i think you said last week it's almost like they're going i want to be able to tell my children that i was there and i helped stop donald trump. they had courage to stand up to a man with a 59% disapproval rating. how courageous!

jon meacham -- >> help us. >> have they no shame, sir? have they no shame? how could they have the courage to stand up to a man that has about as much of a chance of getting elected as kenny bone. >> it's a little paintball outrage, yeah. i think that's a fair way to put it. >> paintball outrage. >> i like that. >> not intellectual at all. >> i picture jon meacham playing paintball. that never happened. >> you should see the paintball nursing home tournaments. they're very exciting. >> is the photographer there this morning? >> that's unbelievable. >> computer from the 1980s. >> that's cute. >> and vest from the 1970s. >> go back to that. that does look from the 1980s. i expect matthew roderick to come in and play war games.

>> okay. >> that's just unfair. >> where did that pop up from? >> where did you get that? >> totally unkind. >> we have it in the control room here as well. >> it's in a couple barber shops in east tennessee too zbl all rig right. >> donald trump and donald trump were both in florida yesterday and -- >> certainly not big enough for them and al gore. >> okay. it was veep on crack. obama was out on the trail as well. >> and no matter how daunting and she gets complained she doesn't complain that everything is rigged if it doesn't work out the way you want it to. she doesn't check her mike. she worries about getting up and working harder. >> he loves doing that.

he's having so much -- is he not having fun out there? >> he's good at it. >> he was incredible. >> nbc's andrea mitchell and presidential historian michael bes beschloss. >> you haven't talked about cubs getting four runs in the ninth inning. the cubs take out the giants. mike barnicle. >> this kid at second base for the cubs. i have never seen faster hands in major league baseball than this kid has. incredib incredible. >> here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. he's got the charts. all over the place on the charts. >> yesterday we're talking about floodwaters in north carolina. you hear about all of the evacuations. people this pets and made tough decisions about taking pets with

them. unfortunately these pets, the hunting dogs, were left in this the back of this pickup truck. rescuers found them yesterday. they are all safe and sound. so the rescuers you the there rescuing pets too. so today's story is hurricane nicole. now a category 2 storm. that's going to be headed toward bermuda about 24 hours from now. so we wish them the best. putting hurricane shutters up. tomorrow they'll deal with likely a category 2 landfall. it will be close. almost right over the top of them. as mentioned water levels in the areas of north carolina. to give you an example, here's today. the river at 29 feet. these rivers are moving so slowly only going down three feet in five days. it's going to be a while before these people can get back in their homes. today's forecast travel trouble spot chicago to st. louis. beautiful weather from florida through areas hard hit by matthew and after a cold start, a nice day for everyone in the mid-atlantic and in the northeast. new england looking great. those leaves are changing in a hurry. beautiful out there this afternoon. new york city looking for a great forecast right toward your

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>> before the debate as i understand it, you had seven twitter followers.

you are now just shy of 100,000 twitter followers. >> well, that's ridiculous but thank you very much for checking. all i'm going to be -- i'm going hang onto my twitter followers and encourage them to get out to vote up until november and then after the election cycle it will probably be back to stupidness and me taking pictures of my cats and my kids. >> are you still undecided in this election? >> i'm more undecided than i was before, peter. the big issue is that donald trump represents my industry, the coal industry, probably in a more positive light than hillary clinton but with the supreme court vacancy that donald trump could possibly fill, there's a great risk that we could lose some of the rights that we fought so hard for from marriage equality, for voting rights that we're trying to extend real equality to all americans. >> that was ken bone of presidential debate fame speaking on msnbc yesterday. >> five years ago he would have had an msnbc show. >> i like his sweater.

>> the bone zone. >> you entered the bone zone. >> you entered the bone zone. >> he's pro-coal and pro-gay marriage. >> crazy. >> still ahead, hillary clinton brings out her secret weapon to win back millennial voters. al gore? >> that would have been a great lead in to scarborough country. is it a caregiver determed neto take care of her owent? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a finaial partr who values it as much as you do. learn more at tiaarg

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>> i'll find the tweet. can you believe he does that? someone says something nasty about me and they retweet. should focus on his own show. >> alleged e-mails from the personal account of john podesta. wikileaks posted this batch yesterday. the third such release in under a week speaking aboard the clinton campaign plane last night, podesta said the fbi is investigating a criminal hack of his e-mails and that he doesn't feel great about it but he's "kind of zen about it at this stage." it's reasonable to believe that the trump campaign and roger stone knew about the wikileaks release. >> i think there is definitely

circumstantial evidence that mr. stone must have known what was to come and mr. stone notwithstanding that he's a former member of this campaign team has been a longtime adviser to mr. trump, and so i think there's at least a reasonable belief that this information was passed to mr. stone. >> russian spies hacked into his e-mails to sway the election. the clinton campaign has not denied the authenticity. the latest data dump not authenticated by nbc news shows donna brazile tipped off the campaign about a difficult question prior to a debate last march. the e-mail allegedly send to

clinton's communication director, the subject line from time to time i get the questions in advance. for her part brazile says she never would share questions from cnn debates. cnn says they would never give out town hall questions beforehand. other messages seem to show hillary clinton herself slow to grasp the political fallout from her private e-mail server. as the controversy escalated last summer, there was concern that clinton wasn't in the same place on the issue as someone in her staff who viewed the decision to turn over her server and thumb drives to the justice department as a chance to move past the issue. a separate exchange months before appear to show clinton spokesman telling colleagues he was in contact with justice department officials about ongoing open records lawsuits regarding clinton's e-mails. donald trump was quick to seize on wikileaks latest release last

night. >> the press is hardly even talking about wikileaks. wikileaks is amazing. the stuff that's coming out. it shows she's a real liar. she said, well, you have to say to the public and you have to say to your donors different things. the press doesn't even pick this stuff up. you look at -- where have you seen it? >> it got overshadowed by the "access hollywood" stuff. >> it wasn't overshadowed. >> it was overshadowed. the doj, what's the doj doing talking to hillary clinton's spokesperson? >> why wouldn't they? why wouldn't they talk to him. >> he's a distinguished alum. >> to give the clinton campaign inside information? >> not to give them inside information, what do you want, brian? you want to talk about this? come on over and talk about it. my personal view of this is that, fine, it's a story. it's so inside baseball i don't

think nine out of ten voters will pay any attention to. they're obsessed with other stuff. >> really? >> i agree with that. >> so if karl rove was getting the heads-up on doj -- >> go ahead. >> if karl rove and bush administration was getting heads-up from doj. >> did brian get a heads-up? >> he says yes. why don't we put that e-mail up again. the doj folks inform me that there is a status hearing in this case this morning so we could have a window into the judge's thinking about the proposed production schedule as quickly as today. >> this was some information that was publicly available but nonetheless he was talking to them. >> d.o.j. folks inform me. >> he probably should -- those conversations shouldn't take place but the information he was

getting was publicly available at the time he got it. there's plenty in there that's worthy of follow-up. >> nothing to see here? >> as mike suggested, nothing that's going to change the race. news organizations have to cover donald trump's war with paul ryan and look into these documents. >> it's hard to do. >> especially if everyone is cheering for one candidate and not the other. it's hard to do. >> picking clinton cabinet members. >> some hope they can be in the clinton administration. >> donald trump told people in florida if their state doesn't go for him, "i'm going to be very angry at you." hallie jackson is live -- >> remember what he told iowa people if they didn't vote for him. they're stupid. he is up eight in iowa. >> that's why wikileaks finishes a distance second in interest. >> hallie is next on "morning joe."pa , yehere you are building a jet engine.

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hillary clinton hit the trail in florida yesterday alongside former vice president al gore. at a rally in miami, gore helped underscore clinton's message that she will fight climate change unlike her opponent. speaking from experience, gore reminded the audience how important their vote really is come november. >> your vote really, really, really counts. a lot. you can consider me as an exhibit a of that group. for those of you that are younger than 25, you might not remember the election of 2000 and what happened here in florida and across the country. for those of you older than 25, i heard you murmuring just now. take it from me, it was a very close election. >> donald trump was also

campaigning in florida yesterday. stop. >> don't do that. somebody said something in my ear. jon meacham, what do you think? >> well, you know, i think that vice president gore conducted himself with an immense amount of grace over the last 16 years. as i think is fairly well known, there's not a great deal of love loss between secretary clinton and the former vice president. >> do we have -- >> there was a piece of family therapy going on there within the democratic party as well. one of the things that struck me the most was realizing that there are people voting who don't remember 2000, so that was kind of depressing. >> do we have any of hillary from that event? okay. joining us -- >> she was there, right? >> she spoke at some length. >> i thought she did well.

>> joining uses from panama city, florida -- >> did you go to captain anderson's? >> reporter: not open for lunch. only open for dinner. by then we were at the rally. people like you here. i had someone say to me this is scarborough country and they came up and said actually mika country. big fans. >> when i went campaigning i saw scarborough country sign but not mika country sign. >> what does the trump campaign have planned for today? >> reporter: back on the campaign trail in battleground florida and elsewhere and notable last night at this park here in panama city, packed crowd, donald trump after spending the entire day basically going to war with republicans calling paul ryan weak and ineffective and slamming john mccain and hammering the rest of his party, he said nothing really negative about any of his fellow republicans. he instead went after hillary clinton, an intentional move by

his campaign. one top aide said to me overnight basically buckle up because this is what you'll see for the next four weeks. trump going after clinton. that said, there was a sense that the campaign was encoura encouragiencourag encouraging in the idea going after republicans. trump versus washington. trump versus the establishment. in our conversations with folks at the rally last night when you talk about paul ryan and others in the party, they simply don't care. i had one woman say we'll start a third party. we'll do a separate party and be the party of trump instead. there's not a lot of love loss for the d.c. beltway among trump's base. >> remember, when we were in the primary, i ran against marco, jeb, all these guys. we won by 21 points. remember that? everyone said what happened? how about all of these states.

i went into a couple states. trump was one point down. doesn't look. then we win by, like, 14 points. we could have this happen. we're pretty even in florida. i'm a little disappointed because hillaryasn't created jobs and i've created thousands of jobs in florida. if you guys don't vote me as a victor, i'm going to be very angry at you. >> trump then encouraged folks here to get out and vote on november 28th, which would be a little late since election day is november 8th. >> did lincoln do that at the gettysburg address? >> he dropped into that voice. very angry at you. >> hallie, donald trump said yesterday in that tweet, shackles are finally off. what does that mean for him practically because i think a lot of people would be surprised to know there were shackles on donald trump for the last 18 months. does that mean he'll go a step further on issues he's been pushing like bill clinton's past? >> reporter: that's potentially one of the things that it means. we had one adviser to the

campaign tell us that when you looked at the new ad that's out against hillary clinton where it shows her stumbling on september 11th, that's one example of being unshackled. trump himself said on a rally also the shackles are the establishment, right, so being free of the establishment in his view not having to make nice with members of the republican party inside the beltway is one way that he is now unchained. his campaign manager, according to sources, has a conference call with members of congress who have been supportive of the campaign to thank them for what they're doing. overtures coming from team trump to d.c. >> you talk about advisers. who travels with trump now among those advisers? >> reporter: somebody we see on the road a lot is steve bannon that's interesting given he holds a high level position within the campaign. typically you don't see that on the road. bannon is typically with him. communications director or one of his communication staffers, hope hicks travels with him. it's interesting.

cor corey traveled with trump often. who was with trump on the plane? when you have someone that's high level traveling with them, they're steering the conversation and steering guidance and given that bannon when he sort of gone after the establishment and clintons, we see that reflected in trump's behavior. >> thank you very much. coming up, one of those election snapshots that puts the current state of the race in perspective. president obama beat mitt romney in the philadelphia suburbs by seven percentage points. meanwhile, hillary clinton is beating donald trump by 36 points in the same area. steve kornacki crunches the numbers ahead on "morning joe." ♪

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still ahead, right now the third presidential debate is scheduled for next week in las vegas but "the new york times" jeremy peters joins us with his latest reporting on why things may not even happen in vegas let alone stay there. plus, donald trump's declaration that his shackles are now off in the presidential race. as bill o'reilly asked him last night, does that mean he'll be more outspoken? we'll dig into that ahead. >> if i wasn't in these

shackles. >> but you are. you are in the shackles. i spent many years as a nuclear misse launch officer. if the president gave e order we had to launch the missiles, that would be it. i prayed that call would never come. [ radio chatter ] self control may be all that keeps these missiles from firing. [ sirens blearing ] i would bomb the [ beep] out of them. i want to be unpredictabl i love war. the thought of donald trump with nuclear weapons scares me to death. it should scare everyone. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message.

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ask your doctor about it by name. >> are you having a good time tonight? where's your daddy? and your mommy? do you want to go back -- do you want to go back to them or do you want to stay with donald

trump? >> trump. >> mayor giuliani said you're not going to believe this. look at this. all of these new judges just came down today. wikileaks new stuff. brutal stuff. trust me it's real bad stuff. >> my god. >> that is terrible. >> those are great. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's wednesday, october 12th. unfortunately mike barnicle is still with us. >> good to have you here. >> okay. yeah. whatever. msnbc political analyst and professor at the university of michigan school of public policy, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. >> go blue. >> on capitol hill, "the new york times" reporter jeremy

peters. >> really quickly, mike barnicle the cubs -- >> is jeremy peters a michigan guy? >> i am, yes. >> go blue. >> the cubbies have one of the most remarkable comebacks in playoff history. >> crushed the giants. i love the giants. i love -- >> you have to love the organization. class organization. >> one of the best in major league baseball. the cubs are the story this year in major league baseball. >> what's your guy's name that runs that place? >> theo epstein? my man. >> you don't want to get ahead of yourself but you could be headed to cubs/indians world series. >> it's a long way off. chicago versus cleveland. come on. >> that would be great. >> what would you call it? >> the mistake on the lakes. >> the greats on the lakes.

>> has to get past the blue jays. >> i can't stand the blue jays. i know a lot of people in toronto watch us and god bless you. we appreciate you watching us in canada. we have a lot of viewers in canada. i don't like the blue jays. >> can we get to politics? trust me, you want to get to politics. >> got in trouble in toronto. fortunately they had a huge transfusion back in the states and got fresh blood in there. if you're keith richards, why do you think he's still alive? does it once a week. >> trying to help you out here. let's turn to politics. a survey -- >> hold on quickly. do you think the blue jays -- do you think the blue jays have a good shot against cleveland? >> i think the blue jays beat cleveland. sadly, i think they do. i think they do. >> cleveland/chicago world series would be great.

national league getting way ahead of ourselves too. dodgers and nationals. what do you think? >> i think the nationals will beat the dodgers. i think the cubs beat the nationals. i'm praying that the cubs beat the nationals. >> it's a good thing we don't have viewers in washington, d.c. or else you might have upset a few people watching the show. >> boston, it's not a college town. go ahead, mika. >> survey from "usa today" completed last night finds an extremely high lack of support for donald trump among the party's highest ranking office holders. it shows that of 331 republican governors, senators and members of congress, 87 are not endorsing trump's candidacy. that's more than one in four. yesterday trump leveled a multistate, multiplatform assault on the party's leadership for abandoning him. it began yesterday morning with tweets aimed at the speaker of

the house. "despite winning the second debate in a landslide, our very weak and ineffective leader paul ryan had bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty. disloyal republicans are far more difficult than crooked hillary. they come at you from all sides. they don't know how to win. i will teach them." last night trump spoke with fox news where he commented more on ryan and expressed his tweet about now being unshackled. >> you say the shackles are off and now i can really do what i want. i mean, what are you going to do that you haven't done? i mean, are you going to be more outspoken? >> i don't think i'm that outspoken to be honest with you. >> come on. >> i'm not outspoken at all. i think i've been very nice. i think we should get support, and we don't get the support from guys like paul ryan. he had a conference call yesterday with congressmen with

hundreds of them and they practically rioting against him on the phone. one person stuck up for him. so i'm just tired of nonsupport. i don't really want his support. if he calls now and wants -- this happens all the time. if you sneeze, he cal up and announces isn't that a terrible thing. so, look, i don't want his support. i don't care about his support. >> if you're elected president, you're going to need mccain and you're going to need ryan. you're going to need these guys. >> they'll be there. i would think that ryan maybe wouldn't be there. maybe he'll be in a different position. >> pretty smart of him to say they'll be there. they would be if he won they would be there. again, we talk about it last hour, he's not thinking about his first 100 days. he's thinking about today. how does he survive? how does he get bad news behind him? it worked so far and right now it's by first dragging bill clinton into the ring kicking and screaming and now going after paul ryan. >> a master of changing the subject.

that's one thing we learned about him over the course of this campaign. big hot story. he turns it into a war after the debate with the republican party. as you said, i think you put it well in the last hour. he's boiling his support down to its core. so that's good for a republican primary maybe. if he wants to be president of the united states, you need more than your core. so he's grabbing them back. he's solidifying that group of people that may be wandering based on the last couple weeks. only 3 1/2 weeks now to grow the pie and that's a lot to ask. >> he does have a huge megaphone. a big platform. he reaches a lot of people quickly. >> so paul ryan responded and said he wasn't going to take the bait. interesting polls are out and the polls show -- latest yougov economist poll showing ryan is less popular with republican primary voters than trump is. ryan has a 16-point net

favorable rating while trump has a 36-point favorable rating. worth noting, trump's very favorable rating among this group is 34%. while ryan's is only 13. >> look at that for a second if you will. let's keep that up there. donald trump plus 36 in the republican party. a lot of people suggest that donald trump is just somehow just a blip, a speed bump in the republican party's history. actually, that looks like it's more than a speed bump. it looks like there are more trump types than there are ryan types in the 2016 republican party. >> so play this out. if you're advising him, do you say, you know what, you say you're going to run again to make sure the republican party pays attention to you. how do you channel the support and ideas of your supporters to ensure they're heard in the broader republican landscape?

i hope he loses. if he loses, what happens? how would you advise him in light of these numbers? >> listen, within the party, he's very popular. >> he's a force to be reckoned with. >> he might start a tv network. other people talked about that before. i think again because you boil down to your core support which may be 35%, 36% of america but 75% of the republican party, you can put together a tv opinion network that could make billions of dollars. >> perhaps. if you want to win, what do you do from here? >> if you're trying to win -- can we get nbc numbers up, alex? give us the four-way if you will. the thing is, if you had two candidates and you had to get to 50%, then it's over. it's 100% over.

the fact is bill clinton won with 43% of the vote. the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll, donald trump is at 39%. even after his catastrophic weekend and according to a lot of people, a catastrophic debate. i thought it would work out for him. it looks like it did. hillary clinton at 46%. donald trump is at 39%. let's say something happens over the next week or two and hillary loses three and donald trump gains three. we're tied. donald trump gains two here. hillary loses two. we're within margin of error. let's say 2%, 3% of the electorate, maybe 4% don't admit to pollsters that they're voting for donald trump. we're in the margin of error right now. i mean, there are -- again, for everyone saying the race is over. i understand everyone says it

all the time. i just don't know. maybe it is. >> flip it. how would you advise hillary clinton at this moment? >> advise her to keep doing what she's doing and be prepared for some horrible wikileaks stuff to come out and just be prepared. i think hillary is doing exactly what hillary needs to do right now, and i think actually to survive, donald trump is doing what donald trump needs to do. put that back up again. put that poll back up again. who would have believed last friday that donald trump would be within seven points? post-debate. who would have believed that? >> i would not have believed it actually to your point. i would not have believed it. i still think it's more about hillary clinton than it is about donald trump. she can't get that pop to go over 50%. >> if she is doing what she's been doing, she'll win. i need to separate what i want from her as opposed to what he needs to do. sometimes i want her to respond

to these personal attacks a little bit more of a sense of recognizing the part that is on record and standing up for herself and not standing up for the people around her that might have misbehaved. that's personal. professionally, even though she's not the best campaigner and we have some clips of her and gore on the trail, you guys be the judge. i think she's doing exactly what she needs to do to win this thing. >> jeremy peters, we're looking at the four-way hillary clinton at 46% before the debate. 46% after the debate. trump jumped from 35% to 39%. if hillary clinton stays at 46%, she wins this race. but she has a long, long history of being a terrible leader, political leader. terrible front runner. >> i think you're right. i think we can forget about

hillary ever doing what her husband was unable to do and that's getting more than 50% of the vote. if you just look at the support the third party candidates are drawing away from her and donald trump, she's not going to get there. mika asked a good question. what does she need to do to keep winning? i think what does trump need to do at this point to keep winning because whoever this election is about, is the one who is going to lose. and trump just needs to keep doing what he's doing and she should be -- she's pretty much set. i do think though that with trump kind of boiling down his strategy to -- reaching out to these core supporters, the hardest of the hardcore, that pretty much tells you where we're going for the next few weeks here. listening in the debate to him talking about sidnlocking her u this is not a strategy aimed at

suburban middle america. you know, that's because of who trump has around him. he has -- steve bannon, dave bossi longtime clinton antagonist. >> post-debate poll at 39%. if he crawls up -- i think the further he gets away from last friday and saturday's story, maybe he's up to 41%, 42% in national polls a week from now. i think what's going to really tell the tale is when some of these swing state polls start coming out end of the week. how's he doing a week later in ohio? in pennsylvania. in michigan. in wisconsin. in florida. in new hampshire. that will really give us a great snapshot of where we are because i suspect right now she's still pretty comfortably ahead on the map, but we have to see. >> that one poll that mika showed us as we went to break inside the philadelphia suburbs,

devastating. >> i saw that. she's plus what? >> do we have this, guys? >> it's incredible. up 36 points. >> so obama beat romney by seven points in 2012. right now she is -- >> why would she change? >> by the way, if that stays anywhere close to that, obviously pennsylvania is gone. there are not enough votes outside of philadelphia and suburbs in central and western pennsylvania. it just isn't. >> tells you about michigan, wisconsin, columbus, ohio, places like that. that's a devastating number. >> for the past three or four days, he's been running for president of breitbart nation. >> he seems to be doing well with that. >> it's going to be at expense of the suburbs that willie just mentioned. >> i will say again, he had no

other choice. if after friday, saturday and sunday donald trump had gone to the philadelphia suburbs and tried to talk about women's health care, he would have been torn to shreds again like we're all saying you go back and everybody is scattered on the battlefield. you boil it down to your core base of support. you lock them down. that's exactly what he's done against bill clinton and then paul ryan. they do go hand in hand. you attack bill clinton, hillary clinton and paul ryan and then you've got that and now he's got to figure out over the next two weeks to start slowly expanding. again, if hillary loses three points, he gains three points, this race is -- could be closer than we expect. >> what does that poll mean for paul ryan after this election? assume the worst for donald trump. does this put paul ryan in jeopardy in any way or traditional leaders in the republican party? >> the republican party, this is a wake-up call for the

republican party. if it's not, they are fools. the republican party -- i keep talking about american enterprise institute. i love them. aei. ideologically i'm there with them on 95% of the issues. you have got to get -- got to figure out a way to get free markets and conservatism more closely aligned with the populist voters that have elected people like me for 30 years. you have to figure out how to blend conservatism and populism. the republican establishment in washington has not done. they have to figure out how to do it. if they don't, they're the losers. donald trump is going to be driving around his rolls-royce golfing on golf crses the rest of his life. maybe running a network. whatever. the republican party -- >> does the party break up? >> doesn't break up. they figure out how -- it's like

bill clinton figured it out in '92. the democratic party, remember the san francisco democrats in '84 and how lost in '88. bill clinton came along and figured out how to synthesize everything and everybody said the republican party was finished. just like barack obama in 2004. the democratic party was at its low point. george bush got reelected. barack obama figured it out. >> the republican party and congress is going to be more unified than ever. i don't think it will be unified to the point where it could work with president trump or president clinton. it's going to be -- this is something a lot of people are not talking about. a more conservative group of republicans. the guy that took john boehner's seat is a freedom caucus guy now. imagine what it looks like if hillary comes in her first 100 days and proposes immigration

reform. it's goi >> hillary clinton yesterday and former vice president al gore worked together to reach out to millennials. >> you look at them and you're thinking if i'm a millennial, if i'm a millennial, these are the two people. i know that -- >> they did this by discussing climate change. >> a 23 year old will look at that picture and go, okay, i want to be part of that. i want to be in the middle of that. >> she warned the audience not to elect a climate change -- >> donald trump is not a believer in climate change. and as i say, he says it's a hoax created by the chinese and in our first debate two weeks ago he tried to deny saying that. we cannot risk putting a climate denier in the white house.

at all. that's absolutely unacceptable. >> okay. >> it wasn't china. what do you think, mika? it's like veep. what do you mean by that? >> stayed six feet away from each other. check it out. or not. she should just keep doing what she's doing. >> visual may create a challenge but substance was right on. >> nice try, harold. >> i ask this, is there evidence that al gore appeals to millennials? he's going to be on the campaign trail to appeal to millennials. that's the thing. we showed a clip on stage reminding the audience who he was. he said maybe you weren't

around. you're too young. 16 years ago i lost the election. you have to remind voters every vote counts especially in the state of florida. look at what happened to me. >> most millennials don't know who al gore is. >> i'm not a millennial. >> you're not? >> no. thank god -- >> do you know who are the jacksons are? >> i remember al gore and ralph nader. we went around and asked millennial voters who was ralph nader and accident we got back most frequently, ralph who? never heard of the guy. they don't have the political context to know elections can be close and when you give your vote to a third-party candidate in a protest vote, it can cost the election. >> have you ever heard of new

edition? >> of course. >> ronnie, bobby, ricky and mike. >> keep them coming. who else? >> i miss limp biscuit. sorry, mika. >> i came into the world as a reject. limp biscuit. still ahead on "morning joe," talking about a revolution. >> if hillary clinton gets in, i myself, i'm ready for a revolution because we can't have her in. >> don't say that. >> i'm just saying that. i'm like trump. am i not saying the truth, guys? come on. >> there's a revolution coming on november 8th. >> i like that. don't say that. he did a good job. mike pence tried to cool down the rhetoric that he's hearing on the campaign trail. >> nbc's kelly o'donnell joins

us with exclusive interview with the vice presidential nominee. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ only those who dare drive thew. the cadillac ct6. at bp, we empower anyone to stop a job if something doesn't seem right, so everyone comes home safely. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.

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>> paul ryan is my friend. i respectfully disagree with his focus in this campaign. i think it's important that we let trump be trump. >> is the party in crisis? >> i think the country is in a lot of trouble right now. >> republicans fighting republicans in this way, sir? >> i don't find myself thinking a whole lot about party right now. >> you're not? how could you not be? really? that was republican vice presidential nominee mike pence in an exclusive interview with nbc's kelly o'donnell. he kind of dodged that perfectly. kelly joins us now from lynchburg, virginia. kelly, what more did he tell you? >> good morning. i was struck by that as well. one thing we know about mike pence is he is a strong communicator. he knows how to convey a message in a way that isn't as harsh. can be very cutting when

necessary. he does it with a soft tone. i was struck by the fact that he says that the party is not his main focus. i can tell you from covering him for a long time and working on covering this campaign, he has been the point person so to hear him talk about that gives you a sense of where things are. is the party in crisis? he said the country is in crisis looking for a new election. he was really trying to bring back onboard republican officials who have been uncomfortable or have withdrawn their endorsement. we talked a little bit about john mccain. you know it was john mccain who for a very long time as a former nominee himself said he would support the nominee. that came apart in the last few days after the audio disclosures of trump making those vulgar and aggressive comments. john mccain saying that he will write in his friend, lindsey graham. so i asked about the tweet from donald trump calling john mccain foul mouthed. here's a bit of my conversation

with governor pence about that. how do you respond to this when you have personally reached out to john mccain to try to get his support? isn't this all being undercut, all of the work you have done? >> john mccain is an american hero. he's my friend. i was really proud that donald trump endorsed john mccain. >> is he wrong to call him foul mouthed? >> i think it's disappointing that after donald trump endorsed john mccain that john mccain has not given his support. >> another moment that caught my attention, having followed governor pence and hearing many speeches, one of the ways he described donald trump along the way talking about their two families and so forth and referring to trump as this good man. he did that many, many times. as i concluded our interview, i asked governor pence, does he still consider donald trump a good man. and with a smile and a forceful answer, he plowed ahead saying

he's a fighter. he's a winner. he did not address that specific question. i cannot get inside his head but he clearly is avoiding using a phrase about that goodness about donald trump but pivoting to talking about he won't quit. he'll work on behalf of americans. i think donald trump has needed mike pence to be this sort of character witness and for mike pence on the campaign trail, it can be a challenging place to be to try to fire up the base, to try to connect with voters, when we've been out at events with him, they remain enthusiastic but he has to deal with some of these difficult questions. it's not easy. he also told me paul ryan told him in advance that he was going to make public he would no longer be publicly defending trump even though he still officially maintains an endorsement. mika? >> you sort of anticipated with the end of your answer there my question which is we played that moment last night at an event where a woman in the crowd says i'm ready for a revolution if hillary clinton becomes president. he quickly said no, don't say

that. do you gather talking to mike pence at all maybe off camera even that he's uncomfortable at times in his role having to defend donald trump? >> what i am struck by is that mike pence signed on for this and is keeping that commitment. i think joe can certainly appreciate this. if you are a republican long-term office holder and the party has asked you to do this-he's not the one blamed when this is over. he's not going to come out with a reputation for showing he didn't do everything in his power to help out. he's made it clear in a nonhostile way that there are things he has not liked. he is focusing on those things he can support and trying to bring people along on the ideas part to divide people's thinking about how hillary clinton would run the country and how trump-pence administration would run the country describing it as

a trump/pence administration. hard to imagine he's not uncomfortable. i can tell you that he's consistently being a loyal running mate and that's something people might talk about for years to come. >> kelly o'donnell, thank you very much. let's bring in "the new york times" columnist frank bruni now. president obama hit the campaign trail for hillary clinton in north carolina last night. he was in campaign mode. fired up and feeding off the crowd. interrupted by protesters three times including by a couple wearing shirts that read, bill clinton is a rapist. >> our term is coming to an only for eight years. and we're already looking around making sure we haven't broken any china or messed anything up. bo and sunny haven't ruined any of the carpets. we want to get our security deposit back.

you've been through that, right? sometimes these landlords they'll look. they'll be, like, oh no. >> the crowd eventually shouted down the hecklers with boos and chants of hillary allowing the president to get back to his stump speech. >> i remember five years ago i asked every cabinet secretary to give me new ideas for ways to get our economy creating jobs faster. hillary set a 12-page single spaced memo with footnotes. lord, i had to do my homework. but that's who she is. that's what she spent her life doing. fighting for every child and every family. not just popping off.

but working. >> frank bruni, explain the dynamic here. trump is -- his message is nasty. >> i think for the first time in eight years barack obama is the happiest man in washington. >> god, yes. >> his legacy could have been repudiateda republican had won. it's not looking like a republican is going to win. of the many effects that donald trump has had on the political landscape, he's helped to drive president obama's approval ratings up as high as they've ever been. that's a loose, happy man and deservedly. >> and the dynamic with hillary clinton and bill clinton and president obama, how would you describe it? >> at this point, she's campaigning very much with him. there is some distance between them on some issues. i don't think he's even thinking

or going to the bill clinton direction at all. i don't think these hecklers mentioning bill clinton, i don't think donald trump bringing bill clinton up is going to matter much. voters are choosing between hillary clinton and donald trump and bill clinton isn't on the ballot. donald trump is overplaying that card. >> having president obama on the trail, joe biden, al gore, she should keep doing what she's doing and sometimes i think we're so engaged with the story we want more from her, but perhaps she's right on track to win this thing. >> well, i think frank is absolutely right. barack obama is one of these characters who has had a near redemption in american politics at this point. it's funny. people are so disgusted with the two presidential nominees and not just that but the tone of the election and how ugly it's become that they need somebody to like. they're projecting all of that

onto barack obama flaws and all. so he's able to help hillary because he remains a very popular figure. i would also say that it's no accident where they're sending him and michelle either. north carolina, which is now voting, where democrats for the first time have a lead in that early voting and compared to 2012, that's how romney won north carolina, right? he had a lead in early voting. that's really significant. and then in florida, too, it's the same thing. the race is on this knife's edge and barack and michelle will be helpful to hillary there. >> thank you very much. frank bruni, stay with us if you can. coming up, chris jansing is live in cleveland where indians are on the path to a world title and something else is going on there too. i think it's early voting. she joins us next.

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early voting in battleground ohio kicks off minutes from now. let's go straight to cleveland and senior white house correspondent and ohio native, chris jansing. what's turnout expected to look like there? >> reporter: you know, they're hoping to get a huge early vote here. these are the hillary clinton folks. you can see across the street it's the high school marching

band. they came half a mile down euclid avenue along with hillary supporters. the reason they're across the street is rules prevent them from having those signs here. here are early voters. some of them got out at 4:30 in the morning. why is this significant? this is cleveland, ohio. this is the place where hillary clinton needs to run up the vote if she is going to be the person that's going win here in what's been a seesaw race. we talked to some of those early voters a short time ago who got out here in the cold around 4:30 this morning. take a listen. what time did you get here? you look like you're still asleep? >> around 4:30 this morning. >> reporter: why get out here so early? >> i want to cast one of the first votes for hillary clinton. >> reporter: any trump people out here? no. one trump person. two trump people. you don't feel intimidated, strength in small numbers? >> not after 24 years in the

army. this is nothing. >> reporter: what brings you out early this morning? >> i love getting out to vote. >> reporter: first chance you get? >> it's time for a change in the country. we have 94 million people out of the workforce. we got a lot of people on food stamps that would rather be working. a lot of issues. a lot of integrity issues too. >> reporter: i found two trump supporters in this crowd. no surprise at that. we have seen these kinds of events already and they've been posting pictures on hillary clinton's website because almost every county in this state is having some sort of early voting event, and people in some cases are putting up tents. here's the reason why. take a look at what happened in 2012. the numbers for barack obama. he won in cuyahoga county by 256,000 votes. the margin of victory statewide was about 166,000 votes.

so it's hard to overestimate how important this is. in fact, a little bit later this morning, there are going to be folks from the board of elections here going to a local post office and they're going to be mailing about 175,000 early voting ballots. 1.1 million will go out across the state. last time -- this is the critical point here. mitt romney actually won on election day but barack obama had brought up such a big lead already that he obviously won the state. back to you guys. as the band starts playing again. >> you have to love when a band plays you out of your live shot and when a man said, please, i did 24 years in the army. this is nothing. >> banking those early votes are so critical. that's the real concern for republicans regarding donald trump. they don't think he's banking any votes and democrats we can

see there, great visual of just how focused hillary clinton's team is. >> what about the last week would lead one to believe that republicans are going out in droves or that swing voters are going out in droves to cast early votes for donald trump? people always say there's time to recover before election day. early voting happens now. his press, his behavior for the last week has been miserable. >> harold, in florida, early voting has begun and a key swing state. mitt romney wins on election day in ohio. but barack obama's team banked so many votes before it didn't matter. florida, that's a real state where early voting matters. >> early voting is transformative. if you watch this day by day and minute by minute and hour by hour as things change people can vote. you used to have to wait. last four or five presidential cycles, polling data is relevant. to tally up support for yourself, i would urge to the

campaign what mika said 30 minutes ago. keep doing what you're doing. this is not a time for victory lap. we can have a victory lap and know the campaign understands that but those on the ground state by state need to understand every day is a fight until november 8th. >> up next, the peaceful transfer of power is a bedrock of american democracy but some of the things donald trump is saying on the campaign trail have some wondering how gracious he would be if defeated in november. presidential historian michael beschloss joins us next to talk about that. is it a caregiver determined toake care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to you? your personal success takes a financial partner

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still ahead, utah has gone red in every presidential election since 1964 but donald trump is having an unusually tough fight there for a republican. even saying back in the summer that he has a "tremendous" problem in utah. msnbc's steve kornacki joins us

in our next hour for that. first, this hour presidential historian michael bescsloss ins the conversation. we'll be right back. yep. stirred it... mm-hmm. drowned it again... mm-hmm. and now just fel if it's cold. yeah. cool.

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>> it's just awfully good that someone with the temperamentf donald trump is not in charge of the law in this country. >> because i would be in jail. i just hear such reports about philadelphia. we have to make sure we're protected. we have to make sure the people of philadelphia are protected.

that the vote counts are 100%. every wants that. but i hear these horror shows. i hear these horror shows. we have to make sure that this election is election is not stolen from us and is not taken away from us. and everybody knows what i'm talking about. >> that was donald trump in pennsylvania early this week. again, warning about the fidelity of the ballots. and before that the much talked about moment from the debate where he eququipped that hillar clinton might go to jail. all of this as the unease from the power as a corner stone to our democracy. >> this is incredibly toxic for a democracy. the first person who addresses the victor in a presidential election who matters, right, isn't the staff, right? it's the opponent.

it was john mccain calling barack obama, very difficult moment. i've been on both sides of this. the bush campaign and the mccain campaign but making that concession call. that kicks off the process of the peaceful transition of power. the loser grants legitimacy to the winner through the concession speech. >> we have had 250 years of miraculous transfer of power with -- done peacefully and consensually. the one thing we don't do is to put people in jail or to execute them. in other countries your life can be on the line in elections, and we had a long history where you don't even talk about that. the breach of that etiquette, of talking about i'm going to personally order a special prosecutor. incidentally, the law wouldn't even allow that, but nonetheless -- and then you would end up in jail, as if he's prejudging it is something that should never be done and is another example of trump

lowering the level of our -- >> joining us now, award winning author and nbc news presidential historian michael beschla. >> michael, i don't know. maybe -- maybe i've just been through too much. >> yeah. >> i remember impeachment was the end of our constitution. i remember the 2000 recount was the end of our constitution, that was '99, 2000, 2001, 9/11, would we ever survive. you keep going through the years. >> right. >> so as a historian, are we going to survive this thing? are we going to be okay? that's what people want to know. >> well, i think we're going to be okay. and there are some people to guide us. i'm so glad you have that video of mike pence at that rally responding to the woman who was saying if trump is not elected i think there should be a revolution after november 8th and he says, no, don't say that, ma'am. that's really pretty interesting because that is much more connected to the tradition in this country.

i mean, one of the best examples, oddly enough, was richard nixon in 1960 who i think none of us would put up as a pillar of a model -- or a model of political graciousness, but as you know, on election night 3:15 a.m. when he said if the trends continue, john kennedy will be elected, he said, you know -- and people were yelling in the hall in that hotel, los angeles, nixon said, you know, we have a tradition and that is in this country once the decision is made, we unite behind the person who is elected. and, you know, as you know, there were credible reports of vote fraud in illinois and in texas. 9,000 votes in illinois, 40,000 in texas. if those two states had clipped, nixon would have been president and he resisted the temptation to demand a recount. he said it would split the country. >> yeah. you remember what pat buchanan said? we asked pat buchanan on set,

why didn't you guys challenge them? because it's obvious -- obviously they stole illinois. he goes, because we stole kentucky, joe! >> wasn't a conversation he wanted to have at that point. >> no. >> hey, michael, nixon may have a had that in mind, too. >> does this year feel any different with the clip with donald trump stoking his supporters and preparing them for the possibility he may lose and saying this is rigged by the election process but also by the media and all of these forces that have conspired to keep him from the white house. i mean, al gore supporters probably had a right to get upset as well, but he finally after the courts had their say made the phone call to president bush. >> he did, and the real answer, willie, is almost everything about this year reminds me of almost nothing that happened before. i mean, it all seems strange. but you're right. but the one thing i think we have never seen before is during the campaign before the

presidential election a candidate essentially setting out the predicate saying if i lose that means the election was rigged and, therefore, you know, the premise here is my supporters should revolt and demand revenge and justice. we haven't seen that before at all. >> frank rooney. >> michael, is donald trump planting some seeds here though in the coming years, maybe in the next election that are going to grow in ways that are going to really maybe we'll survive this moment, but is he planting seeds that are going to have some hideous flowers in the coming years? >> oh, i think he's planting a lot of seeds. the immediate one is that it's almost inevitable that even if this election is not especially close, there's going to be a charge of vote fraud, rigging, and perhaps he'll want to run again in four years or at least start a movement and at the core of that movement is that there's something absolutely horrible in the american system and that is that when the people cast their ballots, the president they voted for does not get elected. and then the other thing, you

know, you've been talking about, all of you this morning, is that it is most likely that donald trump loses whether he says that or not, but this is the beginning of a moment of a movement that will continue to undermine the new president from the moment that she takes office if she is elected. >> who was the least gracious loser that you can think of in american presidential history? >> well, oddly enough, you know, i don't want to look at this through rose colored glasses, but they've all been pretty good. i mean, you go back to 1860 for instance, probably the most acrimonious as you know presidential election we've ever had over slavery. when lincoln was elected over steven douglas. there was a revolt. the south seceded and douglas went to lincoln's inauguration. he was not in favor of secession but had very different views on slavery. he was on that inaugural platform with lincoln. lincoln rose to give his speech, had to do something with his hat and douglas with his great sense

of political ceremony reached over and said, i'll keep it. so he held lincoln's hat on his lap while lincoln spoke. that was a widely known symbol of a fact that even though that election had resulted against douglas, he accepted the outcome and supported lincoln. >> michael, thank you very much. coming up at the top of the hour, the shackles are off. with the gop nearing an all out civil war, donald trump is in full attack mode against republican leaders all with less than a month until election day. we're going to bring in nbc's andrea mitchell and steve kornacki into the conversation as well. "morning joe" is coming right back. coany says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three-arters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement™, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart.

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donald trump tweeted up a storm today. he really did. he lashed out at a number of republicans, the ones who have been distancing themselves from him. he called the speaker of the house, paul ryan who's a republican, a weak and ineffective leader. he called john mccain foul mouth. he said democrats are more loyal to each other than republicans are. he also tweeted this in response to the lack of republican support lately. it is so nice that the shackles have been taken off me and be i can now fight for america the way i want to. so, wait, this is how he's been behaving with the shackles on? those shackles come off -- >> good point. good morning. it's wednesday, october 12th. >> shackles are coming off. i'm excited. >> timely. >> it's about time. >> put them back on. >> when are we going to have a campaign that's worth watching? >> took the shackles off him last night. >> i don't think i'd want to know about your personal life. with us on set we've got veteran

columnist and msnbc contributor -- >> legend. >> -- managing editor of bloomberg politics. co-host of "with all due respect" mark halpern. in nashville, tennessee, john meachem. less than four weeks. >> yes. >> the friction between the republican party, if you could call it that, what would you call it? wedges? it's at a new high. >> wedges. >> wedgies. >> wedgies. >> a huge -- >> what? >> a huge what? >> verbal wedgie. >> would you call it friction in the republican party? i'd call it like a -- >> no, no. >> -- massive food fight. >> everybody's doing what's in everybody's best interests. >> maybe everybody ought to go with their gutt in the beginning and -- >> what are you talking about? >> would have helped, right? >> well, you know, the thing is, we're going to show this in a second, willie, everybody i going, gee, why doesn't paul ryan completely distance himself

from donald trump? >> waffling works? >> the fact is -- good morning, mika. so good to see you. >> good morning. >> the fact is donald trump is actually a lot more popular in the republican party than paul ryan. it's not as simple as us sitting around a set in manhattan think it is. >> on the one hand i do think he's half in, half out. >> waffling. >> are you behind him -- i still endorse him, still voting for him, but i will not support him. he's had to keep a caucus together. he's had to help people win elections in places where donald trump is very important. >> right. >> excuse me. can you re-define what you just said. donald trump is more popular than paul ryan? is he more popular or more well known? >> in the republican party. >> yeah. >> i mean, his -- his -- his positives -- we'll read it. read the script. >> look at the survey from "usa today." >> i'll all about facts.

i'm about details. i am data driven, every decision i make, what i eat, drink. >> zeroes and ones. >> it is the nick sabine. >> it's the sabine metrics of life. >> right. >> i do everything the same every day. i wake up -- >> oh, my god. >> i eat the same. what? what? do you not think -- >> no, it's true. >> a man of the hat. >> all right. look at this survey from "usa today" completed last night. >> this is where i meditate for a couple of minutes. go ahead. >> an extremely high lack of support for donald trump. among the party's highest ranking office holders. it shows that of the 331 republican governors, senators, and members of congress, 87 are not endorsing trump's candidacy. that's more than one in four. >> let's stop right there. >> more than one in four. >> let's stop right there. everybody sneers. >> i'm not sneering.

>> no. in a change election when everybody hates washington, d.c., is this a bad thing that senators and congressmen that have a low approval rating aren't endorsing a candidate who's running against hillary clinton and beat a bush? >> well handled. i think it's a positive, well handled. i'm not sure he's handling it completely positively because the fighting is dominating the headlines. >> you're saying he's fighting so he's a fighter? >> george bush did the exact same thing. george bush went after congressional republicans when he was running. it is a helpful thematic in the current environment. again, if all the coverage of your campaign is you're fighting with other people and your own party, that's not, i don't think, a great dominant message to have. >> it is a -- it is -- well, it is a message that you probably need to have if you were close to political death three or four or five days ago where you're going out, you're fighting everybody. there was a moment where we

tried to chase newt gingrich out in a coup and it blew up horribly in our face. a lot of people were scared and ran home. i turned to a friend, matt salmon, i said, matt, in cases like this you are either the hunter or you were the hunted. what would you like to be? and we went hunting politically because if we didn't, we would have been dead. we would have been stripped of our committees. we would have lost re-election. it would have been a nightmare. donald trump has no choice but to do what he's doing right now. i know the media can't see past their sheer hatred of him. >> i noticed on the show yesterday -- >> their uncontrollable sheer hatred of donald trump. we can all be offended. we're still supposed to report, but the sheer hatred is stopping so many analysts from realizing he's doing the only thing he can do right now to keep his campaign alive. >> yeah. >> hold the core together and then maybe use the last two

weeks to expand. i'm not so sure that right now this isn't exactly what he needs to do to survive. >> well, yesterday trump leveled a multi-state multi-platform assault on the party's leadership for abandoning him. it began yesterday morning with tweets aimed at the speaker of the house. quote, despite winning the second debate in a landslide, it's hard to do well when paul ryan and others give zero support. our very weak and ineffective leader, paul ryan, had a bad conference call where his members went wild at his disloyalty. disloyal republicans are far more difficult than crooked hillary. they come at you from all sides. they don't know how to win. i will teach them. >> willie geist, that line right the there, they don't know how to win. i will teach them. again, political class hates him, the media hates him, but what do you think somebody in

iowa, a republican that's lost five out of the last six presidential elections in the popular vote when they hear that, what kind of impact? they don't know how to win. get out of my way, i'll teach them. it's like ted turner, lead, follow, or get out of the way. >> it -- it would be -- it may influence a republican in iowa. it may influence a republican who already has an affinity for trump. the strategy is consolidate everybody for two weeks, get everybody back on board and then expand, that leaves you a week and a half to expand. >> right. >> who's going to vote for you and make you president. my point is he's talking to the base that he had during the primary. >> right. >> he's reassuring them that i'm fighting the machine but that's not enough to win a general election. >> it's certainly not. >> what's the next step to grow the pot? >> the thing is he lost -- he had a chance of losing that core this past week. you bring your core together. the troops are scattered on the battlefield. you bring them all together. you get the core together and you move forward.

he's got to be counting on two things. one, people just feel like hillary clinton's disqualified by how they feel about her. two, he's got to hope for wikileaks revelations coming out and,barnacle, he's going to hope for the mike bradley effect, there are millions of people, i suspect they are, that are not voting for donald trump who will go into a voting booth and vote for donald trump. mika and i wherever we go, we hear it all the time. >> i don't think it's going to happen. >> no. plab he has a 20% chance of winning, but i don't think this race is over. >> no, it's not over. it's not over till it's over, thank you, yogi. look, i don't think donald trump is thinking about anyone in iowa or anyone in pennsylvania. i don't think he's thinking about the voters. i think he's only thinking about himself. he's certainly not thinking about your party, joe, the republican party. >> of course not. >> he is disassembling this

party piece by piece by piece and what's going to happen after the election, the job -- job number one is going to be how do you rebuild the republican party? what's left of it? because it's going to be fragmented into a certain section of a trump party that's going to be out there for quite some time after this election is over. >> i think what he's thinking about right now is not iowa, the republican party, the future of republican parties. it will help reporters if they understand this, he's thinking about survival. survive this week, end this week, this friday, stronger than you ended last week with the tapes when they came out. and i've got to say that right now nobody's talking about billy bush. if he hadn't done this, everybody would be talking about billy bush, "access hollywood", and that tape. >> well, trump continued to slam republican leaders at a private fund-raiser yesterday afternoon in san antonio, texas, where according to "the texas tribune" he said leaders forgot there was

an election because something happened in the last month where you didn't see them, right? why aren't they on the shows? why aren't they all over the place? trump brought up ryan's 2012 vice presidential candidacy saying this guy lost four years ago in, like, a landslide. last night trump spoke to fox news where he commented more on ryan and explained his tweet. it's so nice the shackles have been taken off me and i can now fight for america the way i want to. >> you said, okay, the shackles are off and now i can really do what i want. i mean, what are you going to do that you haven't done? i mean, is it going to -- are you going to be more outspoken? >> i don't think i'm that outspoken, to be honest with you. >> oh, come on. >> i'm not outspoken -- no, i don't. i think i've been very nice. i think we should get support and we don't get the support from guys like paul ryan. he had a conference call yesterday with congressmen with hundreds of them and they practically rioted against him on the phone.

one person stuck up for him. i'm tired of non-support. i don't really want his support. if he calls now -- this happens all the time. if you sneeze he calls up and announces, isn't that a terrible thing, so, look, i don't want his support. i don't care about his support. >> if you're elected president, you're going to need mccain and you're going to need ryan. you're going to need these guys. >> they'll be there. they'll be there. i would think that ryan maybe wouldn't be there, maybe he'll be in a different position. >> meanwhile, donald trump had a lot to say about paul ryan yesterday. the house speaker didn't have much to say about trump. his office released a one sentence statement, quote, paul ryan is focusing the next month on defeating democrats and all republicans running for office should probably do the same. this as the latest yougov economist poll shows that ryan is less popular with republican primary voters than trump is. ryan had a 16 point net favorable rating while trump has a 36 point favorable rating.

worth noting, trump's very favorable rating among this group is 34% while ryan's is only 13. it's not just republican primary voters. trump is more popular than ryan among all republicans, period. ryan net positive 23 points to trump's net positive 48. >> let's keep this up for a very long time and explain it's not about paul ryan. i love paul ryan. i'm actually -- have always ideologically been aligned with paul ryan. mark halpern, you look at these numbers. trump up 20 in favorables over paul ryan. ryan's unfavorables are higher. this is even in -- this is even among primary voters. this is what the establishment doesn't understand. they will never understand. i saw hugh hewett declare that paul ryan was the leader of the party. he got 60 million votes. he's the leader of the party. i heard him say it on chris

matthews. bad news for hugh hewett. american enterprise institute, the republican leadership and all the fundraisers, paul ryan is not the leader of the party. the party believes donald trump is the leader of the party. that is the conundrum that every republican from pennsylvania to oregon faces. >> what do republicans want right now above all else? they want someone to stop hillary clinton from being president and they want washington to be fundamentally shaken up. paul ryan can't do those. there's only one person that can. donald trump is the leader of those two sentiments. >> john meachem, i want to talk about the man responsible for this picture. that was the photographer in your closet when it was announced that you won the pulitzer prize. we still don't know how he got there. mika and i are shy about cameras. we keep them away from us. you will not see any images of us. >> no.

>> ever. >> anywhere. >> anywhere. anywhere. can you will go to come pair us to saddam hussein, is that right? you look at those numbers and i just -- i can't help think of the scene that everybody loves talking about with andrew jackson during his inauguration where he invites the people in and he has to slip out the back window because they've completely trashed the white house. that's what's happening to the republican party right now, but andrew jackson started a political revolution. >> right. yeah. this is, you kn a classic populist moment. i think when we look back on this one of the things to study is how brilliantly trump has mastered the culture and the media culture. if this were an election for ring master, it would be over. you said it a second ago. it's exactly right. five days ago the question was will he stay in the race because of the "access hollywood" tape. he intuitively understands that

the way to change that story, a, was the debate but, b, was to attack someone else, to put someone else in the center of the ring and so he pulls paul ryan in and now -- >> well, before that he drags poor bill clinton in to the center of the ring. >> yeah. >> and surrounds him with accusers. >> yeah. >> that changes the headlines quickly. now it's paul ryan and the republican party, right? >> yeah. and it's been this way for a couple years. he really has understood the narrative culture in an intuitive way that i think any candidate going forward is going to have to study. that may be the only thing they study about trump. there are two campaigns going on it seems to me. one is you have this ring master who's trying to manage and marshall the conservative outrage, the conservative populism and you have secretary clinton running as this realist

grownup. she's mastered the policy nuances. there's no more conventional candidate certainly since george h.w. bush who has put herself forward. so you really have two campaigns that really don't seem to be intersecting very much. >> no. >> you know, jona goldberg tweeted last night said donald trump stopped running for president a long time ago. he's now running to put together a tv network. now we've suggested that in the past as well. don't know if that's the case or not, but i will tell you, if that's what you were doing, this is pretty damn perfect strategy because, again, what you're doing is you're melting down your support to a core. and i think his core still is 35, 36, 37, maybe 38%. it may not be today. i think it will be by the end of the week. i think he will have this core built out and the more he beats the hell out of washington, d.c., including his own party, the more that core expands.

maybe slowly, but he saves himself politically. and if he does start a tv network later. >> ales, bannon, trump. oh, my god. don't even -- >> if goldberg is right, this is the move for him. >> that would be -- yeah, that would be a very lucrative television -- and powerful television -- >> mark halpern is about to burst. >> i think you're underestimating the extent that the angry with the net 38% in him if he loses to hillary clinton. >> the anger in the 38%? >> yeah. the current people that support him will be angry at him? >> at him? >> angry at the media. >> angry at paul ryan second, angry at mitch mcconnell, angry at -- >> you're underestimating their -- >> some of them will be really angry at him, too, i really do. he's promised he's going to win. he ran for the nomination promising he's the only one that could beat him. >> what did he say yesterday? what did he say yesterday? they're stabbing me in the back. how am i supposed to win? if paul ryan and all the

republican leaders in washington keep stabbing me in the back? >> some of them will buy that. >> i would like to make a bet with you. >> they will. >> there's an element to this. it refueled itself yesterday in pennsylvania with donald trump that is more dangerous -- >> look at those fans. they are fans. >> it fits into exactly what mark is saying. we are going to be left -- the carnage after this election, we're going to be left with i don't know what percentage, 30, 35% out there who are going to be more than angry. they're going to be convinced that as he points out -- >> yeah. >> -- consistently now, the election is rigged. it's fixed. it's against him and, thus, it's against you. so you're going to have a permanent class -- >> yeah. >> -- 30, 35% of people who are so bitter, so angry. >> we have it now. >> yeah, but they're going to have -- >> a place to go. they're going to have a plates to go. >> 40% of the vote, who will your brother be mad at? >> not trump. >> my brother will be mad at the

media for rigging it. >> yeah. >> be mad at hillary clinton. he'll be mad at hillary clinton for thinking she should be in jail right now. he'll be mad at paul ryan. he'll be mad at -- >> yes. >> -- joe scarborough. he'll be mad at all of us. he's not going to be mad at donald trump. none of them are. >> he's going to believe the election was rigged? >> within two years he builds a media empire that rivals all the others on cable and the internet. >> oh, yeah. >> a real truck. >> we'll talk metrics later. i'll ask joe for help on that. >> o'reilly said to trump last night, he said, don't trash ryan and mccain and these guys. you're going to have to work with them when you become president. he doesn't care about that. he's trying to get to the finish line. and if he does, if he becomes president, he'll worry about that later. he's not thinking strategically about what happens next. he wants to do whatever it takes to get there. if he doesn't, then he's left as having stood on his principles. >> exactly. >> maybe not broader principles, but he's stuck to his guns. the message of his campaign,

which is to rail against the establishment. still ahead on "morning joe," nbc's andrea mitchell and steve kornacki joins us. later, does donald trump have a utah problem? congressman jason chaffetz bales and governor gary herbert. a public newspaper is slamming that "access hollywood" video. is the deep red state in play? clinton campaign is out with a new video targeting mormons. >> evan mcmullen is pulling even. he can win that state. >> there did you. >> in utah. >> that's amazing. first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> bill's on the ballot. >> i am. write in. sticker nominee. look at the devastation of matthew, eastern north carolina, four days since the storm left. these are new pictures that are in. the water is just so slow moving. it's a painful process. it rose quickly and it's still high. this is a lumber river near wayne county, north carolina.

imagine all the damage. some people don't even know the situation of how bad their homes are because they haven't been able to go back yet because the water is too high. here's an example of the river gauges. this is the neuse river. it crested last night. going to go down three feet by sunday. hurricane nicole is headings for bermuda. it's now a category 2 hurricane. it's expected to make landfall sometime early tomorrow morning. it's an island, not a landfall, moves over the top of it. tomorrow morning. wish bermuda luck as they go through a category 2 hurricane. in the northwest, be ready, tomorrow morning at this time, heavy rain, gusty winds. we have two big storms for you in the northwest. one tomorrow and a powerful one looks like on saturday into sunday. the rest of the country is looking pretty good today. one of those spots, our nation's capitol. beautiful fall weather today and right into your weekend. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. yeahi do. you guys are working on some pretty big stuff over there, rit? like aew language for crazy-big, world-changing machines. well, not me specifically. i work on the industrial side.

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coming up on "morning joe." >> i'm going to make three, four, five stops a day. i may be limping across that finish line, but we're going to get across that finish line. i think the state of pennsylvania we're going to win so big. i just think -- i think we're going to win. and we're going to spend a lot of time in the suburbs over the next couple of weeks, the suburbs of philadelphia because we've got to get that vote. we want to get that vote. >> steve kornacki joins us just ahead to see whether the pennsylvania suburbs will once again prove to be fool's gold for republicans in a presidential election. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. anana partly sunny mode. and an outside, to clear inse mode. transitions® signaturere adtive lenses making them more responsive than ever to changing light.

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♪you know that there are ♪and if you want to be me, be me♪ ♪and if you want to be you, be you♪ ♪se there's million thin tdo♪ ♪yo that ere are ♪ a new report shows north carolina lagging behind the rest of the country in recovering from the recession. joining us from north wilkes borrow, north carolina, jacob soberoff in his latest up for grab series. what did you find? >> reporter: what's up, willie. here in north carolina if donald trump wants to win in the deep red parts of the state he has to

hit a major home run here and the economy, frankly, has been really struggling. a lot of people call this the birth place of nascar. the north wilkes borrow speedway closed. who do you think can best help you guys out? this is what they told me. >> barry, i wanted to ask you. your street's speedway. i get the sense racing was a part of your community? >> yeah, right. yeah. yeah. >> reporter: how important was this speedway? >> it was a big thing. brought in a lot of money, you know, and everything. when it closed down it really hurt the community. of course, it's not the only thing that has closed down. a lot of our furniture companies and textile companies have closed and moved to mexico or wherever. it's just a shame. that's what it is now. >> reporter: if anyone should be invested in the future of this area, it's the young people who go to school here at will beings

cumulatiommunumulativommune -- >> reporter: what's there to do? >> if you're school age there's nothing to do. >> reporter: do you plan on sticking around once you graduate? >> no, sir. >> reporter: do you guys want to come back here once you're done school and work out of wilkes county? >> depends wherever i can get a job at. >> no, i plan on moving to florida. >> reporter: after you graduate are you going to stick around? >> no. >> not in a million years. >> reporter: how come? >> can't stand the area. >> reporter: have you thought about who you're going to vote for for president? >> trump. >> how about you? >> hiary. >> trump. >> reporter: do you know who you're going to vote for yet? >> yeah. >> reporter: who's that? >> trump. >> i'm not voting for trump. >> reporter: who are you going for? >> third party. >> on the edge kind of candidates. trump, i guess. >> donald trump. >> the best one for the job will be donald trump. >> reporter: is that because of your experience here? >> yeah. >> reporter: do you think anybody or anyone can bring north wilkesboro back to what it

was? >> i kind of doubt it will ever be what it once was. all we can do is get out and vote and hope for the best. >> reporter: here in rural north carolina donald trump has rallied the troops, as joe was talking about earlier this morning, but the rest of the state for donald trump, thereinlies the problem. >> thank you, jacob. great report. >> he's been doing good. he does the sweeps of all the states. he has his crew down there. >> he didn't have to ride a tractor? >> no, but he got down to dirt track racing. we have host of "andrea mitchell reports", andrea mitchell. msnbc anchor and political correspond department, steve kornacki. andrea, you are literally on no sleep because you were flying back from the gore/clinton event? >> of course, coming back john podesta unloading on the wikileaks leak of a hack which he says is apparently from

russia and in which u.s. intelligence officials say. that is what they briefed on friday. >> donald trump saying he doesn't know where it's from. >> that's what's so extraordinary about that. donald trump has said, is there a hack? we don't know if there's a hack? maybe it's some guy in the base am. he was briefed by u.s. intelligence. that's what his national security briefing was all about, that russia is involved at the highest levels, at the putin levels. this is what he was told. so that's pretty -- that's pretty amazing. podesta says he's now in a zen mode about this. the fact is it's ten years of his g. mail account, ten years of his stuff and he didn't erase anything. >> no reason for any of us to be zen about ten years of g. mail accounts. yikes! >> what inside there are they most worried about? what inside should they be worried? >> i don't think they know frankly. there isn't a whole lot of tracking of hillary clinton, aside from the summaries and the speeches, which was the first hit, but there is extensive

daily communications with aides worrying about this, that, the other. you know, a lot of this stuff we knew in real time but not in this kind of detail. this is as though richard ben cramer's book we exposed not after the fact but this is the narrative of the campaign. campaign in meltdown in new hampshire. tina flornoy, an aide, saying you've got to get up here. bill clinton is melting down, he's going against bernie sanders when we're not supposed to do that. he's firing on all cylinders. please come and help me. that kind of stuff. and hillary clinton's awkward embrace of the bernie sanders position against the keystone pipeline. that created some awkwardness certainly for those in the know watching clinton and gore reunited in florida. >> what was that dynamic like, to be there? >> well, the crowd -- i've got to say, the miami-dade college kids loved it. they liked the climate change message. it was, you know -- gore explained how hurricane matthew

went to a cat 5 overnight and in a couple of days which it wouldn't have years ago. he made it real for them. they've just gone through a storm. but these are two somewhat awkward politicians, neither of them great retail politicians trying to appeal to millennials. but gore giving them the message. don't vote for a third party. these kids are too young to know what happened in 2000. >> steve, let's go through some of the battleground states and some fascinating numbers here. this florida poll, even now, before the tape revelations on friday shows hillary with a massive lead in florida, 45 to 32%. johnson at 5. stein at 3. >> i think this should be 45/42. >> i was going to -- >> typo. >> -- say that was a shocking number. so three points. it's a must-win state for him, isn't it? florida is just a must-win state for donald trump? >> yeah.

there's a couple i look at i think where hillary clinton can basically shut things down if she wins them on election state. florida, 29 electoral votes. 29 obviously that barack obama won by a point in 2012. if you're trump, you've got to get those 29 because you're playing from behind. north carolina comes to mind as the one romney state that hillary clinton really has a shot at. i say there's a new poll that i saw out of all places, utah, that is tied at 26. utah is a very sort of particular state with a large mormon population there. >> right. >> not necessarily indicative of a national trend when utah comes up like that. that's one trump has to worry about. if hillary clinton wins north carolina on election night, this thick thing is over. if she wins florida, this thing is over. if she wins ohio, this thing is over. >> pennsylvania, 12 points. hillary clinton 49. almost 15%. donald trump at 37%. the number more surprising to all of us and certainly

something that's going to be indicative of a problem for donald trump across the nation, the philly suburb. 64 to 28%. hillary clinton just absolutely thumping donald trump in those suburbs, whereas, just four years ago mitt romney lost pennsylvania and lost the election and yet he kept it in single digits. >> he was competitive. those philadelphia suburbs have a republican tradition to them if you go back, you know, a generation or two. certainly republican presidential candidates, george w. bush, mitt romney, even john mccain can be competitive in those philadelphia suburbs. if you're trump, the game plan when he talked about winning pennsylvania, when his campaign talks about it, johnstown, southwest pennsylvania, you can make up ground there. there's some evidence that donald trump has made up some ground there, but if you're going to make up ground there you have to at least hold what mitt romney had in those

suburbs. then maybe you can make up some ground. how do you get over the hump? the trump theory was run up the score in the blue collar areas. maybe he does that, but the price of doing that, of saying and doing the things that it's taken him to run up the score is the bottom falls out in the philadelphia suburbs. >> the tape. >> right. this is a national story. >> all right. steve, stick around. we have more with them. president obama mocking republicans still standing by trump after the "access hollywood" tape. that's next on "morning joe." ♪

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the guy that nobody would find tolerable if he were applying for a job at 7-eleven. i mean, i don't know what job if you were kind of voting somebody for a job and then you heard what somebody said on tape about

women, set aside what they were saying about other stuff, that you would hire that person for that job. and the fact that now you've got people saying, well, we strongly disapprove. we really disagree. we find those comments disgusting. but we're still endorsing him. we still think he should be president. that doesn't make sense to me. >> doesn't make sense to a lot of people, does it, willie? >> no, it doesn't. that's a guy, andrea, with a 5% -- 55% approval rating. >> the best campaigner, maybe michelle obama and barack obama. she's not a great retail politician herself but she is lifted by all of these surrogates. look who's going out for her and who does donald trump have in that same category. barack obama is in his zone.

this is personal. this goes back to the birther issue which he blames on donald trump. he wants for his legacy because he really despises what donald trump represents, he really wants to defeat donald trump and they are all in for her. they were -- he was in north carolina. steve kornacki, that's what you were talking about. >> does that help the turnout? >> yeah, no, absolutely. it's interesting, too. think if you had al gore on the campaign trail. think of the 2000 campaign. president was absent. he did not want bill clinton out there. two-term president george w. bush did not want him out there. bush had the 28% approval rating. you have to go back to ronald regan, 1988, george bush sr. what did george h.w. bush do, he won reagan's third term. you look at hillary clinton, if she wins this, well, it's because donald trump lost and it also could be because she got obama's third term. >> let's put that number up

again really quickly, alex. 55% approval rating. i can tell you in the best of political times that's an impressive number. in 2016 with the most divided electorate. >> anti-washington. >> my gosh, since 1968. the biggest anti-washington sentiment that any of us have seen in our lifetime. that's nothing short of an extraordinary number. >> and whether it transfers or not is -- remains to be seen. >> we shall see. >> andrea, steve. andrea, i would tell you to get some rest. >> never happens. >> back on the story in five minutes. still ahead, the founder of vice news travels to some of the most dangero places on the planet and brings an on the ground, deadly look at the nation's terror groups. that's next. yeah, well ge is doing a lot of coothings digally to help machines communicate, might want to at leastment. i'm building world-chng machines. with my two hands.

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joining us the host and executive producer, found beer of vice meez yeah, sarush albi. very good to have you on board this morning. >> thank you so much. >> chilling. >> looks incredible. just looking over the scope of this series makes you want to look back at september 11th, 2001, and say this is sort of a simpler world back then as far as figuring outhat e united states defense posture would be against terror organizations. this is what everybody feared, what you're showing, just the absolute splintering of terror outfits across the planet. >> yeah. i mean, the impetus was to create something that was on the 15 year anniversary of 9/11 to look at what's happened, what direction is the world going in. it's become binary to the civilizational conflict us versus them versus bad.

both sides get the good guys. we're getting further and further apart. and i was looking for answers, and i went on this arduous journey and at the end of it it just felt like we're going in the wrong direction. >> is there anything going on in pakistan that would give you hope that they would become less of a hot bed of this? >> i mean, that is actually the country that really inspired me because i've been going there my entire life, and a darkness came to that country that wasn't there, it wasn't part of the country that i was growing up in. >> when? when did the darkness descend? >> around ten years ago is when i started seeing it. >> is that a reaction to post 9/11? what was it? >> yeah. the relationship with bush and the drone strikes that were isolated by president obama. >> the drone strikes policy makers think somehow are

sanitary, a sanitized version of war. >> they've radicalized the regions in somalia, yemen, pakistan. the first time you see it -- and it gets -- the groups have been getting the tool by america. >> what's the state of pakistan in 2016? i find it to be -- i ask because i find it to be a fascinating country. after buddha's assassination, we heard there was going to be a revolution. after the lawyer's revolts we heard there was going to be relution in the streets. constant prediction of revolutions in the streets. the middle class has always held that country together. >> and the army. >> and the army. >> the middle class and the army. talk about pakistan 2016. >> so the country's been in a constant state of deterioration for two decades now, let's say, and i felt like it had hit bottom and was finally maybe showing signs of hope and recovery. they've given extra judicial

powers to the army and to the police after the school attack where all of those kids were killed and they have just -- that's something we talk about in our documentary, the way that they are just killing suspected taliban members now. it's either we kill them before they kill us and there's no due process anymore. that's what they have to do in order to deal with it, and it's bad, you could argue, but it's also about some semblance of calm to some of these cities now. i'm hoping that it's gotten as bad as it was going to get and now it's finally starting to get better, but it's through extreme measures. >> fifteen years ago when we saw al qaeda and osama bin laden as the ultimate evil, go five years past that and he and zarqawi are sending letters saying, hold off. stop. don't -- don't celebrate the violence quite so much.

it's remarkable. >> you know it's bad when the likes of al qaeda are telling isis that you're going too far. >> right. >> i think that's when muslims start killing muslims that that was a new dimension to this terrorism that didn't really exist. before it was like america is the evil empire and they're al qaeda's main enemy. >> aren't muslims ultimately, as far as just numbers go, the most victimized by this as far as casualties and deaths? >> that's a fantastic question, and that's what i asked the senior leader of al dade in yemen. was it all worth it? because hundreds if not thousands of muslims are displaced, suffering or killed as a result of this 9/11 attack, post 9/11 attack on terror and they said it's part of the greater good. in order to get to this -- >> gosh. >> -- kind of long game to get to this world where they will

ultimately create these caliphates. >> all right. the film "terror" is available on vicenews.com. founder, thank you very much. >> thank you so much. >> we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." mounins, and racetracks. and now much of that same advanced thnology is found in thaudi a4. awith one notable diffence... advanced thnology ♪ the highly advanced audi a4, with available traffic jam assist. ♪ what doin? just checkt score atredit karma. at the??? you're welcome. i just helped you doe a bullet. but i was just checking my... shhh... don't you know that checking your credit score lowers it! just cool. sactually, checking your credit cscore with credit karma doesn't affect iat all. aryou sure? positive. so i guess i can just check my credit score then?

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you're a smart saver. you find ways to retch your dollar. call or go online now and see how aetna medicare rsaver could helpou save. with a low monthly plapremium. access to over 60,000 pharmacies. plus1 tier 1 genic medicaons at preferr pharmacies including walgreens and walmart. shop smart. mpyour part d options toy. d find out if tna rx saver ight for y. donald trump tweeted earlier today, quote, it is so nice that the shackles have been taken off me and i can now fight for america the way i want to. what shackles are you talking about?

the only thing that ever shackled you was the 140 character limit on twitter. and now, and now you're going to fight for america. hey, buddy, you're not rosa parks. you know how i know? people liked what rosa parks said on the bus. time to talk about what we learned today. what did you learn, willie? >> i learned that al gore is down with the kids. love them some al gore. i learned that that number out of the philadelphia suburbs where it has hillary clinton at 36 points is a reflection of what's happening. e race is cooked. >> i learned something that made me feel really old, that somebody who's 20 years old right now and was in that audience for the clinton/gore rally was 4. >> stop it. >> i learned that my producer down there in florida with me was in sixth grade during the recount. that -- that really freaked me out. >> i learned that we're all

really old. stephanie rule has coverage right now. thank you so much for watching and thank you for your patience. we'll see you tomorrow. >> i learned that willie geist misses limp biscuit and i want to forget that. i'm stephanie rule. this morning, unshackled. donald trump unleashes on republican party leaders threatening paul ryan's position if he's elected. >> i would think that ryan maybe not be there. maybe he's in a different position. >> i'm sorry, what? a war hero, john mccain. donald trump going after him? >> i wouldn't want to be in a foxhole with a lot of these people. >> can he win without the republican party? on the other side, united. the clinton campaign breaks out their biggest surrogates. >> he doesn't have the temperament or the judgment or the knowledge or apparently the desire to obtain the knowledge or the basic honesty that a president needs to have. >> your vote really, really, really counts. you can consider me as an