county matters. >> we haven't had the debates, but voting is under way. what can it tell us about who is up and down and winning the race? chris jansing will do that for us. the civil war in the republican party. clearly they are on opposite sides of this fractured republican party. leaders rushing to get on the right side of history and more on what's driving them, but a day has gone by since trump declared himself unshackled from paul ryan and the republican establishment and he is out on the trail today in florida just a few minutes ago. katie is on the ground at that rally. the unshackled donald trump. any practical difference in terms of the guy you are seeing today? >> reporter: he's on stage right now and the unshackled version

is the version that was at his fieriest in the primers. he has a get portion going after the press and hillary clinton and the crowd is loving it. we had a man yell that hillary clinton is a pig with lipstick. they are yelling cnn stucks. the campaign is doing everything they can to rally his base. we say this a lot, but that is the strategy to keep giving red meat to his base of supporters to drive up their enthusiasm to make sure every person who likes donald trump shows up at the polls. there is little hope of expanding his tent right now and fining a way to reach out to minority voters and moderate gop voters even though conservative voters and of course women. right now the biggest sign of

weakness is in utah. hillary clinton and donald trump is tied in the polls right now. this is donald trump showing that he cannot hold on to potentially a very red state. he is not able to do that, it's hard to see how he can win in november. i'm not sure if he can hear it, butchanting cnn sucks about talking about how hillary clinton couldn't get elected without the media. saying the gop is under mining and him and folks like and ryan and the media is undermining him and refusing to mitigate his message and his tone away from the primaries that would have seen more people over and decide

they like donald trump. >> i don't want to put the cart before the horse and the polls are the polls. what you are talking about in terms of this message and donald trump delivering the supporters. is he setting himself up for after the election if he loses? >> if donald trump does not win, are they going to stoke the idea that the election was rigged and there was an establishment experience out to take donald trump down? that's what we are hearing and not all of them. a good portion of them that believe this is rig and there might be dead people voting or voter fraud is an issue they keep bringing up.

if hillary clinton wins, governor pence told her not to say that. there will be no accepted out come other than donald trump winning. >> katie is in lakeland, florida. the donald trump rally continues. as katie was talking about, the question is partly what donald trump is saying. the message he is delivering about that war he is locked in with the republican leadership and what message are his supporters receiving? in some ways they are more fired up than ever in the wake of what has been a tumultuous week. some promising to revolt if donald trump didn't win the election. they are putting that idea to mike pence last night. >> for me personally, if hillary clinton gets in, i myself, i'm ready for a revolution. we can't have her in. i'm just saying it.

>> there is a revolution coming out. >> kelly o'donnell is on the trail talking to trump supporters. kelly, there is mike pence being confronted with the idea of fighting this thing past november 8th if we lose. he tries to tamp that down, but is that the spirit you are picking up on from trump voters? >> i can tell you there is that anger that has been the voice on the campaign trail. especially when it am cans to mike pence who is drawn to see him who is perplexed and uncomfortable with some of what is going on with donald trump. for example, governor pence and his wife making a stop for lunch. one person shouting that donald trump is despicable and another urging his running mates to focus more. this is that kind of election

where people are certainly more vocal than in cycles past, challenging the candidates. the line seems to have moved quite a bit with where people are comfortable. there is an anger and sometimes even directed at the fact that the trump campaign is criticized for not being more effective and they waged this campaign against hillary clinton for those republicans who believe that she could be beatable and would be beatable and has not earned a place to serve. those who feel a republican should win. they get a chance of both. the republicans who are uncomfortable and those who are voicing that anger that was expressed by that woman. interesting to me that some of people that we hear shouting at these effects is a woman's voice with lock her up or traitor. those are two instances where i heard that which may surprise

people. in addition that, i have mike pence trying to argue a more muted way to say that revolution should be through the ballot and not wanting to insight any of that. and also those who are uneasy and the white house would be better to reflect that whey want and they should not flinch. knowing all the criticism. the way he conducted himself. and instead focusing on the ultimate choice. the clinton white house and a trump-pence white house, he always includes his name and to say they should be able to with stand the pressure of the criticism now. it is a complicated picture for voters from anger to dismay. steve? >> in lynchburg, virginia where

mike pence was. we are going to dig deeper on what has been the story of the week in terms of his own party's leadership. they have been with house speaker paul ryan. all but unendorsing donald trump. "usa today" found one quarter -- that's the wrong graphic, but a quarter of republican members of congress refused to endorse donald trump. more than a quarter of republican members of congress and governors are not endorsing donald trump for president. what looked like a full-scale stampede for the exits by panicked republicans, that now seems to have slowed to a halt due to the debate on sunday which seems toed to go over well. you can see republicans are rallying around after that debate. then there is also this. a new poll that shows donald trump is much more popular with

republican voters than paul ryan. 74-26 favorable for trump. 54-31 for the house speaker. this is the problem for the republican elected officials. many are profoundly uncomfortable with trump. that is clearly not widespread when it comes to actual republican voters. the people that republican lawmakers ultimately answered to. what we are seeing now, the republicans who bolted on trump are now starting to come back. republican senator from nebraska now supports his decision to stay in the race and said she will vote for him. the republican of the yen leadership called on trump to get out over the weekend and now he said he is still voting for trump. more than ever the question looms. whose party is this? we will bring in a former

republican congressman from minnesota and thank you for taking a few minutes. let me start with that basic question with the numbers we showed. is it fair to say this party is much more donald trump's party than paul ryan's party? >> i hate to say it, but i'm afraid that's right. trump won fair and square. he didn't get a majority of votes, but he got more than anyone else. we see in poll after poll, some of the more obnoxious positions of donald trump on trade and immigration are indeed supported by a plurality or majority of the republican electorate. the numbers on paul ryan i put in a different category. that's a reflection of people disgusted with congress and a reflection on paul personally. trump won the nomination and he rallied a large and growing faction within the republican

party. there is no evidence he broadened out and is able to appeal what republicans need to appeal to if they are ever to take back the white house. >> let me run through the scenarios after the november election. if donald trump comes back and wins this election, he said whether it's paul ryan or john mccain or any of the republicans he is at odds with, they will all come around and be with him if he is president. do you think that's right? >> it's not entirely. it depends on what he wants to do. paul ryan and house republicans have a comprehensive legislative agenda on national security and poverty and economics. they will try to drive the agenda and expect trump to accept their agenda. there is a possibility of that should he be elected, but the more controversial things he talks about, deporting 11 million people that are here without papers, building the wall, some of his foreign policy

ideas, he may have a very difficult time getting republicans and congress to go along with him. the trade deals are virtually impossible. i don't think he will get free traders to go along with the radical change in direction. >> here's what may be the more complicated and more likely scenario. if donald trump loses, all of those voters we showed, the republican voters who are loyal to him right now, what do you think happened? do you think they blame the establishment for sabotaging the trump campaign? what will that do to the republican party if he loses? >> we will have a big fight within the republican party if he loses or wins to. i expect him to lose and think he should lose and i think we will have a big fight in the republican party. i don't know how you avoid that. he laid out a vision for the country that most republicans

cannot accept. there is lots of us. his people are rallied to his vision of america on the republican party. we talked about the people at the rallies calling for a revolution in the event he loses. i don't think there will be a bloody revolution on the street. that will continue with the fight after the election. >> this story only begins on november 8th. vin webber, thanks for the time. appreciate it. we had donald trump speaking a few minutes ago and now hillary clinton has just taken the stage in pueblo, colorado. kristen? >> reporter: you can hear the crowd is fired up and they are energized in coming to this battle ground state. they get them to the post and make sure they are registered to

vote. she is going to contrast her message today with something that donald trump is doing. he was going to try to argue that she will be the president for all americans. in down ballot races and contrasted himself to over here, they responded to criticism with more packed e-mails with wikileaks including an e-mail that seems to suggest she made disparaging comments on catholics. take a listen to what she had to say. >> your e-mail about catholicism and some of them are saying you should step down. do you have reaction to that? i'm a catholic. >> don't recognize that e-mail.

this is led by the russians. >> with the e-mails, pointing the finger at russia. russia is in effect trying to distract from the negative headlines. with the campaign now, she is skmeer it has been all over the place. the latest polls show she is up and some show she is up by double-digits. back to you. >> at that clinton rally in pueblo. we will listen to her going through a thank you of different dignitaries.

we will keep an eye on it. new polling in the last 24 hours shows donald trump at risk of losing some deep red states. how bad is it getting for him? that's the question. we have a new round of polling. we will do a triage of the trump campaign. >> my forefathers died to have the right to exercise our vote. i want to do it early and get out of the way and get as many people down here as possible. >> early voting is bigger and bigger every four years. it is already kicking off today in the major swing state of ohio. we will go live to cleveland where they have been lining up throughout the day. how many votes have already been cast in this election? [ cough ]

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continuing to look live at both candidates speaking. hillary clinton on the left is in pueblo, colorado and donald trump is in lakeland, florida. we will continue to monitor and bring you any news that comes out of them. while we monitor, we will check in with my favorite thing in the election season. the big board. the race to 270. we usually tell you donald trump is behind in the race, but here's what his path looks like to get to 270. we have been getting new poll numbers since the release of that tape last friday that suggests maybe we need to take a step back for a minute because the story is not necessarily about how close to 270 donald

trump could get. the story might be how far he drops from the 192 we have him at right now. let me show you what i mean. these red states were all mitt romney states in 2012. you have to win them all as a starting point. you have to win everything that is red plus north carolina. we know it's a toss up right now. the problem for the trump campaign is indications that some of these red states could be coming loose. i will show you what i mean. in the show me state of missouri, donald trump is ahead. mitt romney won by and the margin is five. it's better to be five points ahead than five points behind, but when you are only sitting on a five-point lead, you may end up worrying about missouri. other warning signs in very

unlikely places. check this out. utah. romney won by 48 points. it has gone for a democrat since 1964. he is tied with hillary clinton with 26%. we will show you why that's happening later. utah is very much a state right now if you are trump that you have to worry about. you may end up having to worry about missouri and believe it or not, alaska. before the videotape came out, a poll was out that had donald trump ahead by five points. look at gary johnson the laneitarian here. alaska could be a state he worries about. arizona could be a problem. there is close polls there. let's see what happens. georgia is another state that could cost trump there. he started at 192. he may have to worry about the republican states. the red states we were all assuming he would win. donald trump is in a situation where the first thing hoe has to do is shore up everything i just

put gray on this map. then he has to win north carolina. only then would he have the com me in state and still be a ways up. then we can talk about states like ohio and florida and new hampshire. let me show you more. here's a state he would need to flip. one of the best chances is wisconsin. these numbers are reversed. it was 44% for clinton and 37% for trump. don't let that be misleading. clinton is up seven in wisconsin. he had a long way to go to get to 270 before that tape came out. he has a longer way to go right now. he has more headaches and more land mines and more things to worry about and less than a month to take care of all of it. that's the situation the campaign is in. donald trump doing his best to stay positive and show his voters he is still confident. >> i'm asking you to building in the american dream once again.

it's going to happen. the deadline has been extended. make sure to register. i think we will have a brexit coming up in november. >> mike, you have been a student of donald trump for many years. his psychologist is an interesting part. trying to figure out what he is thinking and what his calculation is and what his strategy is. if there is one. do you get the sense this is a guy who realizes the hole he is in or does he believe that everything is going fine? >> there is a flat earth society quality to some of these rallies right now. she preaching to the choir in any one of the rallies. he cannot in his mind be the thing he called about everyone

on the planet which is a loser. he is setting up a narrative that even when he loses, he won't have lost. he will blame it on us and paul ryan and he is going to blame it on the republican party. i think what happened is that he does start his own network. that network becomes donald trump's own shadow government. i think it will start very quickly after the election except if he starts contesting the result. if your math is right, how is he going to say that they stole it from him if he ends up getting 170? >> if the margin is more than 100 and you are not talking about a florida 2000 situation, that's the other question. i talked to people who know him better and watched him through the years and said hey, he didn't get in with a grand plan. he liked the idea of winning. he didn't like the idea of serving as president. do you think there is a part that would be relieved to get

the politics thing over with? >> having known him a long time, i can't imagine him sitting in a policy meeting about climate change or anything else. i think this has been fun. he has been carried along by the narcotic of the car of these crowds. at some point, it makes you think of the old line that richard pryor used to have saying how he got caught with another woman by his wife and he said who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes? sometimes what he is saying doesn't bear up with any of the numbers you show day after day. it's like birtherism has given way to trumperism. somehow there is an alternate reality going on here. i really believe that maybe it's in the best interest of some of the his fan boys at fox news to support this candidacy. if he loses, they might end up

losing. the trump news network or whatever he is going to call it will be a force of nature in this country. >> that's my other question. so much of the trump image and messages that i'm a winner and everybody is a loser. thinking back to the republican primaries and every debate. rubio and bush said they can't beat hillary. only i can beat hillary. romney choked. i won't choke. the trump voters are going to go along with what he describes. if he loses do you think they buy into it? >> i think they will buy into it. that's what happens when you issue the candidate in the from the republican party. he is from the party of twitter. he is from the party of facebook. obviously in a down year, if he said down is up, often enough it's clear that he is getting enough people to believe it. it's quite remarkable. >> if he does take this media route, this has been discussed.

that keeps him a relevant player into the next presidential election. >> he becomes outside of government the most powerful political figure in the country without any of the responsibilities of actually being president of the united states. >> the news that house speaker paul ryan would be happy to hear. daily news, msnbc contributor. coming up next, more reaction to this new unshackled donald trump. >> if you sneeze, he calls up and announces this is a terrible thing. i don't want his support and i don't care about his support. >> trump talking about paul ryan. a poll of republican voters fines that trump is more popular than paul ryan to discuss the war on the party's leadership with the panel and the effect it could have on election day. that's coming up. ♪ at walgreens, you're free- free to seize the savings on medicare part d.

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>> now, eastern north carolina is where people in low-lying areas are urged to leave as floodwaters from hurricane matthew continue to rise. look at the pictures. some rivers are not expected to crest until this weekend. there are worries it could cutoff communities all together. people should not be fooled, by today's sunny skies. >> i cannot emphasize more that a lot of people are hurting and living in shelters and preparing for major, major floodings as we speak. this is very hard to convince people of because it is such a beautiful day in north carolinc. it is a surreal experience. >> live from from golds borrow,

north carolina, i complete lie understand so much of the attention in the run up to this storm was on florida and a little on south carolina. by the time it got to north carolina, watching it, they were hit brutally. >> it is heard to say, but this is a nice day of hurricane matthew here in north carolina. i'm in golds borrow, an hour east of raleigh. look at this neighborhood behind me. you can see that house to the right has a sign on the door. that means that house has been evacuated. about a dozen came back here to their homes and salvage whatever is left. they are warning residents that the waters are deadly. several people have drowned in the couple of days we have been reporting. from the red cross, how precarious is the situation here? >> we can't stress how important it is for folks to listen and

evacuate and have a plan for themselves and their pets and the elderly and anyone who might need evacuation. i met a woman the other day who didn't think it could happen to her. she found rushing waters coming into her home and she had to grab her 4-year-old and carry him out of the waters. the only thing they had was the clothes on their back. >> many share the same story. it's a ticking time bomb for a couple of days still. >> in golds borrow, thank you for that. coming up, back to politics. how are donald trump supporters responding to his war with his own party? >> paul ryan is making a mistake. it makes everybody realize it's all about their donors too. they are afraid of donald trump winning. >> a party at war with itself. less than a month until election day. we will convene our panel

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bring out the bold™ >> the clinton campaign likes what they are seeing. they call it the final melt down that donald trump is waging against his own party's leaders. launching a threat against paul ryan on fox news. let's listen. >> if you are elected president, you are going to need mccain and ryan. you are going to need them. >> they will be there. i think ryan will be there in a different position. >> all right. we want to bring in associate editor at the hill. joining me by phone, washington bureau chief megan murphy. let's start with you. trying to figure out what the strategy is in the trump campaign. sometimes it's what's the strategy or is there a strategy? that's what comes to my mind when i see the war with paul

ryan. do you think there is something to be gained electoralry with trump by handling it this aggressively. >> i'm not sure how persuasive that is. the argument is there is a considerable sway of the conservative base that is dissatisfied with republicans in washington that likes attacks on ryan because they think the people like ryan are insufficiently conservative and they will therefore be all the morardent in their support. we have seen from every poll that there not enough of those people to put a winning coalition and that is the major downfall or pitfall of that strategy. >> maybe with them saying the effect this has on the republican base, this has been so fascinating if are me to watch. it looked over the weekend like the floodgates were opening.

all these elected officials were going to abandon trump and get out of the race and they weren't going to vote for him. not only do we not see any more doing that, but we had two who came back. it seems that trumpo hold is affecting the party leaders. >> that's hugely significant and his personal ambitions in terms of how they had to move with a galvanizing debate behind trump. not only in the wake of paul ryan, but the attacks in the past. they will continue on both fronts. they are right. the math is not there. he is only going to count on turning out his base voters and he got them and that's only about 40%. that's not going to help him get over the line in swing states he

needs. this borage of vicious personal attacks on the clintons is going to get the votes on the far side among the demographics that a aligned so heavily behind her. latinos and african-americans and you don't see where the strat sgregy has any playoff. >> the full on attacks in the debate on sunday night. this catching attention today. rudy giuliani at a trump event in florida. rudy giuliani the mayor on 9/11 and famous for leadership that day and in the aftermath, he was not saying back then attacking hillary clinton over what she was doing that day. take i listen. >> i heard her say i was there that day. i don't remember seeing hillary clinton there. that was like when she said she had a run through gunfire.

that turned out to be what do we call it? a lie. >> and that is striking to see just given rudy giuliani's reputation from 9/11. whatever you think of him, that reputation that forged had nothing to do with partisanship and everything to do with working across the aisle. now it's a political weapon. >> it is and i think rudy giuliani has become increasingly for vent to say the least in his support of donald trump and not really paying tribute. as to be fair, he has done at times in the past saying she worked hard on behalf of families who were bereaved on 9/11 and other generally positive sentiments like that. giuliani and others are part of this strategy that is all about going full bore against hillary clinton and trying to under cut her in every way possible.

to circle back to a point, one of the dangers is that it motivates or potentially motivates democrats who are not in love with hillary clinton to come out as it were in defense of her. i understand why trump did it in the debate and he needed to shore up his base and it's a strategy that happens with risks. >> i want to show you we talked about this a minute ago, but the reaction of trump supporters and how they are thinking about this war with the republican party and the aftermath of the election if their candidate loses. here's two of them talking about the idea of revolt. take a listen. >> the republicans voters are not going to stand for this. if they can pull off and be on their own and i think they can forget. >> we are going to rise up. we are tired of taking it. we are tired of being

deplorable. >> what donald trump stirred up comes to the republican base, it's not going to go away after the election. is it? >> oh, no. this is not a temporary phenomenon and we should remind people this is a phenomenon that happened in other countries as well. this right wing populous has taken hold of the republican party regardless of the results of this election. it's very difficult to see the republican party from any cohesive alliance behind the principals and the values and the things they have always stood for and paul ryan in particular is an incredibly difficult situation. it is fascinating to watch him running ads about hope and optimism and the future based on poor conservative principals and positive good future and waging the campaign that is all based on a future that is far more dark and he is the only person who can grab ahold of that and

wage it by any stretch one of the most negative and vicious campaigns we have seen in presidential politics in a long, long time. if he only counts on trump supporters, that will be a losing battle. he is going to see hemorrhaging of women and among college-educated voters where he was holding off in states. how he gets the numbers he needs to get across the line is impossible to see with this strategy. unless we are under counting the number of people who are in this camp right now and most of the polling is dead wrong. >> joining us on the phone, we will get to you in the studio next time, i promise. thanks for joining us and new numbers show about a half million americans have already voted. we have another debate to go, but their votes are in the books and recorded. up next, we will break down how early voting is faring in the key battle ground states compared to four years ago.

plus -- >> we need to move forward. let's get some things worked on. education, veterans issues. this election is very crucial. >> ohio is one of the states with a lot of early voting. four years ago there, about one third of votes were cast before election day and that state went to president obama. early voting is under way officially today and we will go live to cuyahoga county where voters have been lining up all day to vote. i work 'round the clock. i want my blood sugar to stay in control. so i asked about tresiba®. ♪ tresiba® ready ♪ tresiba® is a once-daily, long-acting insulin that lasts even longer than 24 hours. i want to trim my a1c. ♪ tresiba® ready ♪ tresiba® provides powerful a1c reduction. releas slow and steady. works like your body's insulin. when my schedule changes...

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less than a month left in the voting campaign, but early voting is starting here today. we find chris at an early voting center in cleveland. what's it like there? >> this is the slowest it has been. people had gotten here at 4:30 in the morning. they had a bigger than expected turn out. there are people coming in and it closes in about ten minutes. 1600 people. what's the latest number? 1600 people. 10 minutes before closing. this is critical to hillary clinton. let me give you one set of numbers. in 2012, obama won here by

256,000 plus votes. he won the entire state by 166,000. that shows you how critical it was. early voting was key to the victory here. mitt romney was here on election day. they came out on the early voting. >> i had to. it's so important. it's a must. this pushed me all the way back out. what has you worked up. >> you want me to announce who i am voting for? >> sure, if you want to. >> i'm voting for hillary. i'm with her. 30 years standing for children throughout the world in not just area, but throughout the world. that alone would put her into anybody's high esteem and as president, she is going to bring

it all the way. i think a lot of people will realize particularly those who are voting for the other guy, he she is a president for all the people and she will do the right thing. >> il will keep my eye on it and so many people are interested. take a look at the delaware county as well. mitt romney won by about 25 points in 2012. a lot of never trumps there. a lot of folks will be watching closely after this first day of early voting. >> the polls in september had trump ahead, but they had hillary taking the lead lately on the ground in cleveland. >> stocks were mixed as markets adjusted the latest minutes from the federal reserve. the last meeting in september

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>> the release of the donald trump tape that 94% of utah ans have seen or know about has upended the presidential race with trump now effectively neck and neck with hillary clinton. >> both are sitting at a dismal

27% at a poll overnight and first reported in the news. >> what was that we were showing you? that was today's noon newscast for king sl television in salt lake city. it's not every day we show you the local news from utah on this show. it takes us to our most important number of the day. today that number is 48. it has been 48 years since a third party candidate actually won a state in the presidential election and that poll they were talking about in utah has a lot of people talking not just in utah, but around the world. donald trump is tied with just 26% of the vote. look who is in 30 place? four points behind. evan mcmullen? who? he is a former congressional staffer and cia agent who was recruited by the never trump folks to run a third party campaign.

his strength is very particular to utah. he went to school in utah and he is a mormon and that has a lot to do with what's happening in utah. take a look at this. more than 60% of the state is mormon and donald trump had a serious particular problem with mormon voters. they are very republican and conservative and this was basically donald trump's worst state in the primaries. he lost to ted by more than 50 points. he struggled with form on voters, but this is a huge factor in utah. in evan mcmullen can climb up a few more points, he could win that state. keep in mind he is not competitive anywhere else, but he is absolutely right now in striking distance of utah. if that happens, if he wins the state, you have to go back to 1968, 48 years ago george wallace was a segregationist in the civil rights era won a punch

of deep south states. it could happen in 20 scap16. mtp daily starts right now. >> if it's wednesday, donald trump is raging against the political machine with experience theories of what he is calling sinister d.c. deals. tonight talk of revolution is bubbling up with trump supporters. as trump declares war on his own party. >> this is a rigged, rigged system. >> why the third rail of third party politics is getting hotter. we will check in with libertarian vp nominee bill wells and the urban plight and the challenges ahead for the next president to revive many struggling u.s. cities. this is mtpdaley and it