sanders holds two events in colorado. that's going to do it for us on this monday. i'm betty nguyen alongside louis burgdorf. "morning joe" starts right now. >> got my name right. >> i did. >> the affordable care act is not affordable. what will you do to bring the costs down and make coverage better? >> ken, that's a great question. i agree that obama care can be improved, ken, but, ken, it does have its benefits. number one, insurance companies can't deny you coverage because of an existing condition. number two, no lifetime limits, which, you know, is a big deal if you have serious health problems, and number three -- sorry. i thought i -- number three, women can't be charged more than -- thought i -- women can't be charged more than men for

health insurance. okay? and number four -- ah! >> i seriously -- i'm obsessed with her. is that okay? >> she's amazing. >> she's a savant. >> there's another part where she goes let me -- let me lean over here like i practiced. >> good morning, everyone. >> do you have children? >> no. >> are you a teacher? >> no. >> do you like children? it. >> no. >> have you seen children? yes. okay, we've got a lot to talk about. >> we have the money guy, the cheesy guy, and the foreign policy guy. cheesy. definitely. and inappropriate. probably uncomfortable for women. >> we have managing editor, on that note, with all due respect that airs at 6:00 p.m. on msnbc,

mark halperin and correspondent for the huffington post, sam stock. >> here on set we have veteran ad man donny deutsche. >> veteran. >> veteran. veteran. >> richard and former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve radner. >> mark, listen, a tale of two polls. the abc poll, which we'll get to very quickly -- >> actually, right now. why don't we do that? >> it shows pretty close. within the margin of error, according to abc news. the nbc poll differently -- we're going to read through this, but have you looked into -- before we show people the polls -- the difference in the methodologies here why there's such a wide divergence on these two polls? >> well, it's not so much a methodology. it's a sample in talking to lots of people who are doing polling in the battleground states. most of the campaigns don't do

national polls. trump has gotten closer to five or six points nationally. maybe seven. he is going to have to have a national surge if he has a chance to win this race. he is currently are not in a position to win anything like the 265 he needs to get to 270. >>. >> 1% say it was more likely for them to vote for him. >> we have the 1%. >> god. >> 64% saying it won't make a difference. this is important because -- well, i'm not going to say it. >> and asked if they're very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting for the candidate, 80% of clinton voters said slightly more than the 79% of trump voters. it's down from above 90% from

2012. >> that's a swing, by the way. clinton up, trump down as far as the 24u6enthusiasm thing. >> another poll taken over the exact same period shows a wider clinton lead. the nbc news-wall street journal poll shows hillary clinton with an 11-point lead over donald trump. among key groups our nbc poll finds clinton continuing to dominate among women, leading trump by 20 points. he has a much smaller three point lead among men. clinton's other wide margin is among non-whites where she's ahead by 60 points. 60 points. trump leads among white voters by 11 points. on personal qualities, clinton trails trump on being honest and trustworthy. >> that one still, again, has sustained brooklyn every time they see that. donald trump still seen as being more honest and trustworthy. >> both are low.

>> extremely low. >> straight forward is another word. they connote his blunt talk with honesty. >> that number right there, steve ratner, continues to be wide. it's like a good fighter in it boxing would always punch at the weak point of their opponent, and that's what the clinton campaign has been punching at. temperament, temperament, temperament for months now. >> the clinton campaign has been punch, and one thing that's struck me was the fact that you had a lower percentage of people saying that they thought trump was qualified to be president than you had people who said they were going to vote for him to be president. you have people voting for president admitting he is not qualified to be president. >> wow. >> let's talk about that for a second. we've been talking to people an awful lot off set about this.

have you noticed over the past month or so far from hearing people saying i don't know how i'm going to vote and moving back and forth, they've hardened in their position. they get angry, extraordinarily angry. i think yelled at by trump supporters as part of the great media conspiracy. i've been yelled at by clinton voters. when i simply say, oh, this poll says it's four points, i don't know what that means. they start screaming. >> i get yelled at by everybody. wherever i go -- >> it's unbelievable. >> people will ask about the election. i say two words, and they'll interrupt me and start yelling. i don't even know where it's coming from, and sometimes what it's about is people are so upset about -- >> we were at a charity event, donny, and she just answered a question by being critical of donald trump.

the person who loved donald trump started screaming at her for five minutes at a charity event, and everybody kept saying she's disagreeing with you. the screaming continued. it's crazy. it's crazy out there, both sides. >> both sides are scary. talking about the rigged election, trump. what worries me come election night for the first time we're going to see a candidate who loses not give a concession speech, and donald trump will stand up there and say it was rigged and i'm not conceding, and i'm announcing my run in 2020 for the trump revolution party, and you had a sheriff who came out -- i need -- this is what's scary. a sheriff came out who had actually spoken at a convention and said -- this is a sheriff in milwaukee -- and said it's incredible that our institutions of government, white house, congress, the big media are corrupt and all we do is bitch. pitchforks and torches time. this is a man with a gun and a badge who spoke at the convention, and i am frightened

that that rage post-election is going to turn to some very -- >> i disagree. first of all, i mean, this is a problem with both sides. we have out of north carolina the firebombing of a republican party headquarters, and threats scrawled on the wall. we're going to get to the story in a minute. officials, in fact, are trying to figure out who firebombed this republican headquarters down in orange county, north carolina, this weekend. the building suffered massive smoke damage, and there was fire damage. authorities say that there was a bottom. it was filled with flammable substance that was thrown through the window. it happened between 5:00 saturday night and 9:00 a.m. sunday morning. they painted a swastika and painted nazi republicans leave town or else. this is the sort of rage that is simmering. obviously, donald trump is saying things on the campaign

trail that go -- i'm not preaching moral ekwiquivalenequ between what the candidates are saying, but there is rage on both sides. we're talking about, like, social settings. just people screaming and you say, wait a second, i'm agreeing with you. you can stop screaming at me. >> first of all, it's not totally an exception. we have seen a coarsening of american politics over the last couple of years or decades. compromise has become something of a dirty word, and now it's something i've never done. i'm going to slightly agree with donny. i don't think it goes away the morning after. governing, i think you are looking at divisions deep within both parties. looking at divisions that are deep between them. it is a permanent campaign. i just think that whoever wins

is going to be extraordinarily hard to build working coalitions around compromise to get things done. that's what worries me as much as anything over the next three weeks. look what happens over the next four years. >> i'm not sure. >> he complains quietly that he has left a great life behind. i wonder if after the last balloon falls, he goes back to his great life. the life before this far exceeded the life that he is living right now. >> it's beyond donald trump. i don't know what he is going to do. i'm saying that the fault lines now in american politics go way beyond the single personality. even if he were to go back to

that life, i don't think he would, there are divisions, again, within parties in between them. 2020 we begin very early. i just think the fault lines are pronounced. >> look, i think two things. first, i'm more on your side on this one. i think he will try to remain some kind of a force in the american dialogue. he is an entertainer. he makes his money off of entertaining and about being visible, so i suspect we will see him, but i don't think he will be a force, necessarily, in american politics. i agree with you completely, richard. i think the next president will have a tough time gorching because i think the fault lines are really deep. not just between the two parties, but within the republican party. paul ryan has a really tough time governing his caucus, and hillary clinton will be under a lot of pressure from the liberal wing of the democratic party. i think it's going to be a really tough time. >> speaking of hillary clinton, that's the other big story. wikileaks has released transcripts of paid speeches to goldman sachs and a series of

data dumps. they were a part of the group's latest release of emails allegedly hacked from the personal account of campaign chair john podesta. they have not been independently authenticated by nbc news, and the clinton campaign and surs intelligence officials have blamed russia for hacking the emails. one e-mail claims to show hillary clinton's 2008 presidential campaign polling about obama's ties to the muslim faith hours after her surprise victory in the january 8th, 2008, new hampshire primary. >> after obama's surprise victory. when hillary lost in iowa in 2008, came in third place to barack obama and behind john edwards. yeah, this is podesta that was kae copied on an e-mail -- >> the long-time clinton campaign strategist is discussing a poll that tested

attack lines against obama. one of the questions in the poll asked whether voters would be more or less likely to support senator obama if they knew that "obama's father was a muslim and obama grew up among muslims in the world's most populist country." he said he was polling to defend obama. >> no, actually, this was the day after obama beat hillary clinton. >> so bad. >> that's -- >> that was a draft poll questionnaire that tested potential right-wing attacks on obama to help prepare to defend him. >> i'm sorry. alex -- i'm sorry -- was that poll -- the poll also included suggested questions on obama's use of cocaine, questioned his patriotism for not covering his heart during the national anthem, and mark halperin, this was the day after the iowa loss, hillary clinton loss. or new hampshire? was this the day after new hampshire?

okay. the day after new hampshire. >> one of two things is true about paul bogala. either he is not telling the truth about the poll, or he is one of the most forward-looking people in democratic politics. even as he was helping hillary clinton fight to win the nomination, he was thinking ahead to the general election where his candidate would lose and barack obama would be -- >> actually, barack obama, got so angry at them with their whisper campaign on him being a muslim or coming from a muslim country, a muslim father. remember that scene on the tarmac where he was yelling at hillary clinton? >> i do. it was featured in the book "game change" about that campaign. >> i have never seen him mention his book before. >> that was very subtly. >> i love that. >> also in the wikileaks hack are transcripts recordly showing remarks hillary clinton made to goldman sachs employees during three appearances in 2013 touching on a number of topics, including the war in syria.

clinton allegedly told the crowd that the best way to take on the assad regime is as covertly as possible. my view was to intervene as covertly as possible for americans to intervene. we used to be much better at this than we are now. now, you know, everyone can't help themselves. they have to go out and tell their friendly reporters and someone else. >> whoa. >> look what we're doing. i want credit for it and all the rest. >> she's talking about barack obama there. >> speaking on russia -- >> unbelievably. >> -- clinton purportedly said i would love it if we could continue to build a more positive relationship with russia. we would like to see putin be less defensive towards relationships with the united states so that we could work together on some issues. clinton also allegedly touched on the 2008 financial crisis discussing the root causes with goldman employees, seeming to avoid criticism of the banks. i think there's a lot that could have been avoided in terms of both misunderstanding and really politicizing what happened with greater transparency, with

greater openness on all sides. you know what happened. how did it happen? how do we prevent it from happening? and, finally, in a separate e-mail from 2012 an employee at the clinton foundation allegedly told several aides that qatar wanted five minutes to meet with former president bill clinton in new york to give him $1 million as a birthday present. the e-mail goes on to say that qatar is looking for suggestions from the clinton foundation to the $20 million gathered to invest in haiti. >> mark halperin, a lot to digest here. a lot to digest. what are your thoughts first before we go around the table? >> well, there's lots in there that confirm the suspicions of people about how the clinton enterprise operates. there's a lot of things that are kind of medium grade. i think just as a political reality. >> where did mark go? >> decide which one to seize on. >> yeah. >> well, let's talk about russia

first since we have you here. hillary clinton 2013. first of all, obviously criticizing barack obama who leaked -- the administration would leak the terrorists they killed that day and had leaked that he would look over lists of what terrorist to kill that particular day in the 2012 campaign. talk about russia, which is absolutely fascinating. even in 2013 she wanted a close relationship with vladimir putin. >> what's interesting, what it tells us, is the piece and degree to have u.s.-russian relations have deteriorated. this is one of the big developments in the world. that we've gone from a difficult to okay relationship to something that even now the russians are saying it's the worst it's been since the worst moments of the cold war with the idea of u.s.-russian military confrontations or coming to contact. syria and europe is not off the table. there's nothing bad about what she was saying. it's a really snap shot, two

years ago, three years ago to how quickly things have changed. i don't think there's anything in this that causes problems for her like the previous ones which talked about open borders, free trade and all that. there she ran into trouble between what she was saying privately and what she's been now saying publicly. >> we've got sam stein's picture back out of washington. $1 million as a birthday gift. i know you have a lot of friends, a lot of your rich friends from dartmouth that come in and give you $1 million for your birthday presents. >> this confirmed the worst portraits of the clintons and how they operated out of office.

now, you know, there were charitable purposes that went along with the clinton foundation, but, of course, it came with a conflict of interest. i would say -- it wasn't the clinton campaign that did the polling about obama and cocaine use and muslim faith. it was a group called progressive media usa. now, progressive media usa was an outside government outfit, democratic allied outfit, in 2008 that was tasked about essentially looking up the vulnerabilities of each perspective candidate. >> so john podesta -- >> it was paul bogala. a group called progressive media usa. i know. it was the poll that was done by progressive media usa. a guy named tom matsey. he is in clean energy now. this was not a clinton campaign -- >> come on, sam. >> no, it really wasn't. >> it was in the heat of an ugly campaign.

this is even before racism charges. >> it was said that it was a clinton campaign poll. that is factually not true. >> what we know is that mark did famously bring up the cocaine u use. what progressive media was doing was checking whether it would be a huge vukt for obama once he got to the general election. this is a fairly mundane campaign -- operation here. >> in january of 2008 paul

bogala was not asking about barack obama's muslim identity because he was concerned about a november election against mitt romney. >> the idea was to see if he would be a vulnerable general election candidate and pushed that -- >> sam, are you really -- are you saying this with a straight face? did they teach you this at dartmouth to say this with a straight face? >> listen -- >> they're very good. >> you read it as if it was a clinton campaign poll. i'm correcting that. >> you can correct that and say it is a distinction without a difference in the midst of one of the ugliest democratic battles in recent memory. >> can i just jump in. >> big difference wrv. >> no, no, it's really not. >> there is no difference. >> let's also always asterick -- not that these are not true. these are russian hacks. i general genuinely believe if you went into the emails of any political campaign and did a deep dive, not excusing my of

that. >> should we not report on this? it sounds like you're excusing it. >> not excusing it. i would guarantee, i would bet anything that on any political campaign that's ever been done private going back -- >> they all do it? >> it's not even a question. >> you're saying they all do it, right? >> yeah, kbrayeah. >> did that go in -- >> that went to his foundation. >> reuters reported this on, i think, friday or saturday and said that they couldn't confirm that it wasn't a personal gift. >> for $1 million? >> i would like to know that. i also want to jump back really quick. it's a critical point about trump. you said that he is going to go away. i couldn't disagree with you more. everything that drives this man is attention and adulation. >> figurely speaking. >> he is not going to give them that, and he is going to be a face of hate, or whatever you want to call it. by the way, he can't go back. he can't go back to being donald trump. >> he will be a face of hate, i

agree with that. let's assume he goes down a reasonably crushing -- >> do you like that pivot? >> crushing electoral defeat, and he goes off of whoever is willing to follow him into the woods, you know, and fight the next fight. i don't think it's going to be a major force. rush limbaugh or some figure out there on the fringe rant and raving. >> what donald trump likes to do, even though it's hard to believe this in october -- what donald trump likes to do more than anything in the world is design golf courses and play the golf courses he designs. it has been his obsession for 40 or 50 years. he likes driving around in rolls royces. >> i think everybody -- >> he likes driving around in rolls royces. he has said in it the past to friends that he is disappointed if he wins he will never be able to drive around his rolls royce again. this is not a guy that is going to be going to think tank -- speaking at think tanks in washington in february of next

year. he will be -- >> speaking at rallies. >> he will be golfing. >> rallying 20,000 people. >> he can get on his plane once a month and go speak at a rally and golf the other 29 days a month. yes, i think so. if you are expecting him to be at the center of political operations 24 hours a day or living it like he is now, steve, come on. he is not going to do that. >> that's my point. the idea that people are going to submit pilgrimages to donald trump or seek his advice, i think he will be a marginalized figure within the political system. >> everyone underestimates him. >> mark halperin, what do you think? >> most people who lose presidential elections aren't particularly influential. i don't anticipate that he would be any different, and i don't think he wants to fight his way into the political process if he wins. >> let me ask you, mark, 24 afternoon the -- >> if he loses where everybody. >> what is this today? october what? 17th. >> 17th. >> october 17th. if your aging parents ask, you can tell them it's october 17th.

i always ask jack what the day is, and he tells me. my 8-year-old. october the 17th. see, i forgot it again. is the race over? >> no, i tweeted out a map after looking at the electoral college and talking to people with a lot of private polling data over the weekend. trump has to win five states. you said the trim lines are great. you went from 14 to 11 to 4. it's 141111. take the wide range of polls. are you seeing any trim lines whatsoever over the past week, week and a half? >> well, there's limited state data, both public and private, but trump's decline nationally

from a race that was roughly tied to hillary clinton clearly having a lead, as i said before, around six or seven, has not been mirrored with the decline in the key states. obviously he needs to be tighter nationally to have a chance. he is in the game in those five must win states. all five of them. north carolina being the tougherest. if he can find a way to win those five, says is he on the doorstep of winning. right now today she's got an 8 in 10 chance of winning. you know, the words of the prophet are written on subway walls.

still ahead on "morning joe" we're just two days away from the third and final presidential debate, and donald trump has a suggesti suggestion. drug testing. >> you have already called him a heroin addict this morning. votes have already been cast in the 2016 presidential election. that state begins early voting today. plus, the long awaited offensive to drive out isis from its key stronghold in mosul gets underway. we'll get richard haass's take on that. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. n. like centurylink's broadband network that gives 35,000 fans a cutting edge game experience. or the network that keeps a leading hotel chain's guests connected at work, and at play. or the it platform that powers millions of ecards every day

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>> hello, and welcome to the second and worst ever presidential debate. before we begin, we just need to do one last thing. >> much better. now let's get this nightmare started. please help us welcome the

candidates. republican nominee donald trump and can we say this yet? >> probably fine. >> president hillary clinton. >> thank you for having me. i would like to begin tonight by attempting a casual lean. got it. >> oh, my god. she's so great. >> amaze. >> he is so great also. so funny. >> he is a perfect trump. >> trump didn't like him, though. >> well, trump made the classic case of taking something that was really critical and broadcasting it to the world.

still ahead, it donald trump claims the books are cooked. his closest advisors are saying it's not really what he is saying. now he is challenging hillary clinton to take a drug test. what? >> makes sense. >> for what? >> heroin, donny? >> you think trump is on heroin?

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>> a long way to retake iraq. the city of mosul has begun against isis. >> the terror group has controlled iraq's second largest city for the past two years. in announcing the operation the iraqi prime minister said "the time of victory has arrived." adding that isis would be punished and the city rebuilt. iraqi forces have surrounded the city cutting off any supply and escape routes for isis fighters. troops are also preparing for guerrilla warfare in a city that's expected to be heavily booby trapped. secretary of defense ash carter says, in part, this is a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver isil a lasting defeat. >> let's stop right there. is that the case? is this a decisive defeat? >> mosul will be retain.

we don't know if it's after a long siege or something less than that if isis decides to escape to syria to fight another day. >> is isis being drifb out of iraq now? >> yes. i think what beer seeiwe're see isis being turned back to a terrorist organization rather than a protostate. can these people govern? you know this really motley crew -- you have kurds and iranians from the shia militia and the government. the question is can they -- >> will they be able to govern? the question is what is isis that we seen in the past that when it usually defeats against isis are responded to by a terror attack somewhere. the question is do they -- as they continue to lose in the battlefield, do they start hitting soft targets in europe and in america? >> we've already seen that, and the answer is yes. as they lose their territorial

personality they go back to what they were before they gained territory several years ago in iraq and syria, and you can expect to see it in europe and in saudi arabia and elsewhere. >> how significant is it that isis loses their territory? >> what it does is it breaks the narrative of momentum. the history on its side. it slows down the recruits because it's not going to be so good. this is not the future of iraq. this is not ultimately the future of syria. i think it's an important -- it's reduced to more of a traditional terrorist group rather than to a threat to all of the middle east. >> can we talk for one second about joe biden's comments yesterday on "meet the press" that i found pretty interesting where he said, one, we don't have the military resources to both put enough lives in aleppo and do all the things you are talking about against isis, and, second, if we did, we couldn't get an authorization of military force from congress. i was curious what you thought about that. >> i don't think presidents need authorization to use military force to do certain things.

you can find justification. >> this president had said a while ago he was going to ask congress for an authorization before he did anything. >> again, there's nothing in american political history that says you need to do that. you could put some air cover over parts of syria, but you also need a ground component. there's no such thing as making an area safe from the sky. we're not going to do that with american ground forces. we need something that's local from neighboring states or from syrians themselves or some combination of the two. that will be the direction. >> do we have the airpower to ground syria's air force in an afternoon? >> absolutely. >> of course, we do. >> of course, we do. the bigger question is how do you work around the russian air force and you don't want to turn this you into an american-russian confrontation. it's a reason to say we've paid an enormous price for dithering in syria. we had far better options than we have now before isis went in.

there's another important factor that isn't getting a lot of attention. steve ratner is here with charts. "morning joe" will be back in a moment. narrator: adventure can be found anywhere but the best place to start is in the forest. kubo: i spy something beginning with..."s"

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>> i think she's actually getting pumped up, if if you want to know the truth. she's getting pumped up. you understand? in fact, we're going to be talking about that in a few minutes. she's getting pumped up for wednesday night. i don't know. maybe -- we're like athletes, right? hey, look, i beat 17 senators, governors. i beat all these people. we're like athletes. so athletes, they're making them more and more, but athletes, they make them take a drug test. right? i think we should take a drug test prior to the debate. i do. i think we should -- why don't we do that? we should take a drug test

because i don't know what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last debate she was all pumped up at the beginning, and at the end it was, like, oh, take me down. she could barely reach her car. i think we should take a drug test. anyway, i'm willing to do it. >> it's amazing. >> what is going on? what is he talking about? >> that would have ended anybody's campaign for good. yet, we just sit here and giggle at it. >> here's the thing, an applause line. we should take a drug test. the crowd applauds. >> pumped up. >> who was it that was on the show that accused him of being on cocaine? >> howard dean. howard dean. >> howard dean. yeah. double down on it. >> wait. what is he talking about? what did i miss? >> mark halperin, you're the expert. you know, we used to -- >> he is throwing stuff in the air. >> our washington drug screener is not in this morning.

sam stein. >> doug, why not? >> what's going on here? >> i was up in portsmouth for that event, and there were parts of the speech that were actually quite on message with the message of change, message of hillary clinton has been part of the problem. then he goes and says all of a sudden that there should be drug tests and, of course, that's going to yell out attention, and that's the story of the trump campaign right now. he is saying things that some of his advisors want him to say that are conspiracy theories, but not the only message that he could ride of trying to get back in the race. >> sam stein. >> sam stein, i hope our screeners were gentle on you this morning. >> they weren't in. they weren't in. hence, why i'm here. >> that's why you are here. right. >> the origins of this honestly is an info ward article by alex jones where he suggested hillary clinton was on drugs, and, you know, uppers, essentially, and then, yeah, they wore out as the debate went on. the fact that the republican

nominee for president is picking up news from infowards and then throwing it out in rallies is a little bit odd, different type of campaign tactic than normal. that's where we are. we have 22 days left. >> thank god. make it end. donny, it's like you said. everything is so surreal now. i'm nervous. i'm scratching my head. everything is so surreal. >> everyone is so angry. >> everyone is so angry that, again, if mitt romney had said that 22 days out, shut the campaign down. like, we were actually -- mika brought this up. look at the mitt romney scandals from 2012. >> stunning. i don't know what the words are. it is -- you watch it, and you are waiting for guys with butterfly nets off to the side to come and take him away, and, yet, it's not even -- that's not

even big news. we'll pass by that. >> if you are crazy, you can say stuff like this, and people say, okay, he is crazy, and we'll move on from that where. >> to have four points between them -- >> that's the scary -- that is the scary part. it's not him. it's that -- and he said it himself ad nauseam. i could kill somebody. when we have to go through the littany of list of things of hatred and things he has done in just the last week with the women. yet, 38% don't move. >> again, as we've said before, somebody has brought it up here. it's absolutely fascinating. we all talk about trump. this election really is a referendum on hillary clinton and whether americans can digest the thought of hillary clinton and the status quo moving forward. >> you are looking at an important factor this morning that could be driving some of the angst. many older white americans? >> i think if you are talking about why trump is still where he is, i think what's going on

among middle aged whites, those 45 to 54 is quite interesting. particularly about their mortality rate. we talk a lot about their income situation. let's look at their mortality rate. if you look at this chart, the red line -- u.s. whites, men and women of middle age. 45 to 54, as i said. >> going up. >> you can see it was going down. now it is going up. >> we've heard about this for the past six months. this is absolutely fascinating. >> in contrast in if every other developed country it is going down, and even among u.s. hispanics it is going down. if we put african-americans in here, they start at a much higher level for obvious reasons, but it's also going down. why does it happen? look at the next chart, and you'll see why it's happening. why it's happening is because the cause of death has changed dramatically. poisonings by which i mean alcohol and drug abuse basically, says have gone from essentially zero in 1999 to 30

per 100,000 residents today. suicides have gone up. chronic liver diseases. usually associated with alcoholism gone up. diabetes, which is associated with obesity has not gone up surprising surprisingly, and lung cancer, which was the biggest killer, has been declining, and it's now below drug abuse and poisonings. you have the situation. these are men and women of all economic strata. >> drug and alcohol abuse has skyrocketed since 2000. it sounds like russia after the fall of the soviet union. >> 45% of men who are not in the labor force are on painkillers of one sort or another. let's look at it from an economic and socioeconomic status. you'll see what's happening here. this is really so contrary to the american dream. so contrary to everything we're trying to accomplish. people at the bottom of the economic strata have actually

seen their life expectancy decline from about 77 years to 76.1. these are men. whereas men have seen -- at the top of the economic strata have seen their life expectancy go up to 88.8. >> 12 years. 12-year gap. >> if you look at women, it's worse. if you look at women today, mika can expect to live to be about -- since she's in the top 20 te 20%, of course -- can expect to live to 92. her life expectancy has been growing. if you are in the bottom 20%, your life expectancy has been increasing as a woman, and it's now down to 78. >> you know, that drug and alcohol thing goes right back to the trump 38%. you have such -- >> this is the point. this is the point. it's not infectious disease. these are lifestyle induced diseases. exactly what steve is talking about. it's the fastest growing public health problem in this country and around the world. >> could i -- >> that grows out of what?

that grows out of jobs going away, lost opportunities. >> economic -- >> the loss of self-esteem. >> dashed hopes. >> loss of self-esteem. >> that is our blind spot around this table. it's our blind spot in new york city. it's our blind spot in los angeles. it's our blind spot everywhere. we look at this election through the lens of the 1%. i can tell you, and i -- we've talked about this before. you get west of niac and start driving through america, and you start seeing people who clearly -- you start seeing the trump bumper stickers up and the yard signs in there. there are people that have lost hope because washington, they believe, failed them and they've left them behind. >> i have to leave you with one last statistic. if we had maintained the decline in the death rate of whites that existed in the 1990s -- so instead of it going up -- 500,000 fewer people would be dead, and that is the equivalent

of the aids epidemic. >> okay. thank you, steve. >> it is an epidemic, and, again, that is a symptom of an underlying economic disease, which is, again, you can look at these numbers, and you can look at the health. you are exactly right. just like you can look at what trump says and you say, oh, well, everybody voting for donald trump is racist. the end of the day economic factors drive so much of what's going here, and the loss of hope in america over the past years. >> it's not even believing in anything. we hear time and time again. our nbc reporters say, yeah, i don't like what trump is saying or how he arthritis women, i don't like this or that. i don't like -- he is not -- i have to save my job. had a case in ohio democratic steelworker. they don't like him, but i have to save my job for my family. it's survival. >> coming up, donald trump's

campaign has started selling hillary for prison buttons and shirts on their official on-line campaign store. nbc's halle jackson, who is following the trump campaign, joins us ahead with her latest reporting. "morning joe" will be right back. campuses. or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. it's what the national debt could do to our economy. if we don't solve our debt problem 19 trillion and growing money for programs like education will shrink. in just 8 years, interest on the debt will be our third largest federal program. bad news for small businesses. the good news? there's still time for a solution. ask the candidates for a plan to secure our future. i'm going to the bank, to discuss a mortgage.

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coming up at the top of the, the latest batch of hacked emails from hillary clinton's campaign chairman reveals something that bernie sanders wanted released a long time ago. plus, a look at the new polls out this morning.

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or keeping a hotel's guests cuttinconnected.i to 35,000 fans... businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. >> madam secretary, you were quoting matt olson in his rally television. >> i love you, andrea. you are my kind of woman. i tell you what. look at this. >> i know. go ahead. i love it. >> hi, patrice. let me start by walking over to you just as i practiced. right, left, right, left, right, left. plants feet. now, patrice, you're a teacher? >> no. >> you have kids? >> no. >> you like kids? >> no. >> you have seen kids? >> yeah. >> okay. great. we're bonding already.

oh, my friend, patrice. patrice, i strive to be a positive role model for all children, children like my daughter chelsea and my granddaughter chelsea jr. >> great kate mckinnon. welcome to "morning joe." monday, october 17th. still with us we have donny deutsche. >> that's like a bad pebble that just won't go away. >> yeah. >> exactly. something like that. steve ratner is here. mark halperin, sam stein is here, and joining the conversation the news and finance anchor at yahoo bianca rodriga. >> good morning. >> we begin with the tale of two polls. the washington post-abc poll puts clinton ahead by four points. 47% to 43%. leaving trump within the margin of error. >> do you believe that poll? do you believe that trump is within the margin of error?

>> no, he is not, but, again, the national polls are interesting. they show why trump has declined. the "wall street journal" poll shows that he is no longer beating her on trade or the economy and jobs, but in the states he is doing a little bit better than the national poll. i think his lead is in the national polls probably around six or seven, which is not -- no matter what happens in any individual state, he must close the national gap to whether you believe a poll that says four or 11, he is not close enough now to win. >> 6 or 7 adds up to a landslide. >> that's how obama beat romney. >> you know, that's a country mile. he has to get it within one or two to tighten those state polls. >> well, the poll also showed little impact for the ""access hollywood"" video. 1% saying it made them more likely to vote for him. >> this group is called the deutsche group. >> just donny and his friends.

>> it's amazing. we talked about the last segment, last week -- not last month. seven women came forward and said they were assaulted by him. yet, we -- it hasn't come up in it the first hour of your show. that would have been the story for the -- >> nine. >> just last week there were -- how -- that's -- he is even in the race after that is beyond kpraen comprehension where. >> i think there's a lot of reasons for that. >> according to the abc news poll he is within the margin of error. abc could be dead wrong. >> that's my point. >> nbc has it at 11 point. gallup had it at 11% for romney four years ago. >> 64% saying that tape won't make a difference. now, this is where, you know, it may not be in a path to winning, but most on television are saying that tape was going to do him in.

>> survival of your family, you will overlook racist comments and groping comments. at the end of the day women will rise up and make this statement. i do think that was a kill shot, but the fact that -- it's not even apparent at this point. >> i think what's actually showing up more if you look deeper into the polls, and this is something, bianca, that mika said when it was happening were the statements about the former m miss universe being overweight and the fat shaming. i think that -- we want to talk about a kill shot with women in the suburbs especially, i think -- and the working class women. i think that was devastating. >> yeah. >> for donald trump's hopes with

women. >> when he initially defended those comments saying that there was a real problem. she was significantly overweight. it was hurting the brand, the contest itself, and the comments he has made since this tape came out, and more allegations have come out. not, you know, saying i'm sorry, i was different than. saying i wouldn't have done that. look at her. did you see her? that's not a man who is showing any sort of remorse. >> and, again, you know, i have seen it through the years. seen voting patterns. i have seen polls. i have seen accusations flow both ways during the heat of the campaign. what i have always found is that the accusations, whether they're founded or unfounded and whether they're about men or women, voters filter that in and out. they go, okay, maybe it's just because of the timing of the attack, maybe it's -- they're not sure about that. what they are sure about here is, number one, donald trump is disparaging a woman's looks who is claiming that he sexually

assaulted her. they do see that. they do know that. women are offended by that. they do see what he says about miss universe. they do know that, and they do see that. they don't need a lie detector test or everybody involved or a trial to know that donald trump is talking about women being ugly and donald trump is talking about women being fat, and that's what they know. you want to know what the kill shot is? it's not even the accusations. it's donald trump's own words. >> and that is -- that is showing up in the polls. that is showing up in the polls. >> let's not minimize that tape. let's not minimize -- >> we're not minimizing the tape. >> i'm just saying, it's the same narrative. >> donny, we're not minimizing the tape. i'm telling you, though, it's people know that donald trump -- it is showing up in the polls, donny, that donald trump is fat shaming women and donald trump

is talking about women's looks in the midst of very serious allegations, says and that is showing up hurting him in the polls. in fact, mika, i think that clintons even have a new ad out about that. >> they have an attack ad. it's on the web called america's bully. take a look. >> what? are you going to cry now? >> you're so gullible, mcfly. >> you, sit down! >> sit down! >> shoot is, fat boy. >> i would look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers. >> she ate like a pig. >> you are so stupid. >> how stupid are the people of the country? >> i don't want to see you in here. >> get him out of here. get out. >> come on, cry. >> he is like a little baby. >> i don't know what i said. ah, i don't remember. >> what are you going to do about people who want to be mean and all those bullying? >> tell me a little bit more about why that's on your mind? >> i have asthma, and occasionally i have heard people

talking behind my back. >> that was really brave. i really do think we need more love and kindness in our country. that's why it's important to stand up to bullies wherever they are, says and why we shouldn't let anybody bully his way into the presidency because that is not who we are as americans. >> mark halperin, what do you think? >> if she wins, i think that ad will be put in a time capsule. it's a distillation of their exact message, and it doesn't have the latest things trump has said, but donald trump in the last week has played into the very message the clinton campaign wanted to have this entire campaign be about, that he doesn't have the temperament to be president. and to say, as joe said, amidst rious allegations that he couldn't possibly have sexually assaulted these women because he doesn't find them attractive is so offensive to people's sensibilities, so undermining that he has the best temperament, that i suspect the clinton campaign cannot believe what they have been given politically in the last week. >> mark, i was talking about after the comments about miss

universe went to parents night and went outside afterwards, and everybody was standing around talking, and, of course, the campaign always comes up. the women outside were all talking about the fat shaming of miss universe and the body imageing, and they are talking about how much she weighed and how attractive she was and how if this man thinks that she's fat,ing wh what does he think a the rest of america? it's just -- again, it's -- it's been devastating for the campaign, and they know it inside the campaign that their real trouble with women began there. >> yeah. no question. you know, david axelrod's famous line about presidential campaigns being mri's of the soul. he has been faced with a number of challenges of people coming forward saying things about him, videotapes, et cetera, and in almost every instance rather than rising to the occasion and showing grace and humility and

understanding of what it means to be a leader, he has acted out in ways that many people, even within the campaign, can't believe he is doing. not just because of what they were -- because they distract from any chance to talk about changing washington and the economy. >> let's go to rick tyler real quick and get to you, donny. okay. you need to stay in line. stop being such a bully. you're an on set bully. we're very sad. >> i am. >> so, rick tyler, we were talking about the abc poll that has him at four and nbc 11, maybe at six or seven. donald trump wants to tighten that up, and if he wants to go ahead instead of, i guess, last week he was basically statistically tied in ohio and north carolina and some of these other states, he is going to have to pick up ten points among women voters. he is going to have to -- it's not going to be like three or four -- he is going to have to pick up double digits among women voters. women are going to defeat donald trump unless he figures out how to turn it around, and for the

life of me with 22 days left i don't know how he does it. any ideas? >> yeah, personality transplant. that would have to -- that would have to occur. look, in many ways this does feel like a rigged election, and i mean in this sense. we already know the outcome of this election. we're just watching it happen, and donald trump will not win this campaign. he will go into the next debate trying to salvage his reputation. he will end up doing the exact opposite because he doesn't understand how he comes across to the american people because he looks temperament. as mark was saying, that's exactly -- that's his biggest, weakest point, and he will continue to do that. by the way, by saying this is a rigged election, donald trump won the nomination under, i guess, the same rigged election. two, why would any of donald trump supporters go out and participate in a rigged election? i mean, it fundamentally undermines his message about a rigged election. three, winning candidates don't claim the election is rigged

where. >> well -- okay. >> i have to respond to that. overall, i said this before. the clinton campaign has run a brilliant campaign. what that ad hits, and to mark's point, at the end of the day it's about decency. you know, you go back to every president. you take george w. bush, you talk barack obama. couldn't be more diametrically opposed. these are good men trying to do their job. donald trump has shown indecency -- you say that's kind of a -- >> it is interesting the gender disparity is still interesting. >> that's it. we've said that all along. >> i have to say, donny, outside polite society, there are a lot of people that, again, this comes from a guy that says i like hillary clinton. you take that message that hillary clinton is a decent person for middle american, get back into your helicopter,

private helicopter and fly back. you believe that, but a lot of america does not believe that. >> yes. that's clearly what the polls show. >> the reason that ad, i think, is so powerful for them is not just showing donald trump at his worst, but that is her at her best. we all know that that is part of who she's about. it's not consistent with the wikileaks portrait or kiconsistt with what a lot of americans think about her. that is a reality of how she cares about people. to turn from not just making fun of donald trump and hating him the way they like, but to show her with that young lady is quite powerful. >> it's interesting that she is just an absolutely horrendous -- she's a horrible campaigner. she will admit it herself. >> she's not comfortable. she said it. >> she said this is -- >> she's not a natural politician. >> she's not natural. she said my husband is. i'm horrible at this basically. they actually did find the moment in the campaign where we all stopped and go, okay, we've seen that. we've seen that hillary clinton before. the other one was just

unbelievable when somebody asked her about the greatest accomplishments, and she said love. it all comes down to love. nothing else matters. it's really hard. there are a couple of those moments, and mark is right. they found one of the two moments where she was a great campaigner. they put it in an ad, and it's what makes it so effective. >> i think she also had a good moment at the last debate when she was asked can you name something you like about your opponent, and she talked about his children. that was an impromptu response. whether or not you like donald trump, you can acknowledge that he has successful, respectful children. i think going towards the paternal role she's played and now she's trying to have that come across as a grandmother as well, saturday night live notwithstanding, chelsea jr. she knows her granddaughter's name, but, yeah, you are seeing more of a feminine side of her, maternal side. >> state polling shows hillary clinton expanding her lead across several battleground states.

in virginia a survey shows clinton has expanded her lead to 15 points. 44% to 29%. that's up eight points from just over two weeks ago. >> it's remarkable. the republican nominee for president in the state of virginia in a poll two and a half weeks out at 29%. >> staying out west in utah trump leads both clinton and independent evan mcmullan by 17 -- that's now within the margin of error. he was up by 1 1 points there two months ago. trump's running mate, governor mike pence saw his approval rating as governor in his home state drop to 47%.

that's down seven points since mid-august. >> sam stein, that really is as we look forward and, again, i am not as comfortable as 99% of the people in the media and saying the race is over in 22 days left. we still don't know who is going to win. it looks like it's going to hily clinton. the one thing we do know is if donald trump loses this race, there are going to be a lot of republicans like mike pence, rudy giuliani, says and others who are going to have their political brand damaged by their association with this campaign. >> yeah. i mean, first of all, the fact that we're putting up graphics of polls from utah and indiana and wondering if they're close is something. you could even add texas to the mix where there's been some interesting numbers. you are absolutely right. i think there's going to be -- if the trends continue the way they are, there's going to be a taint associated with the donald trump campaign that i think will be hard to rub off of people like mike pence. even to a certain extent, people

like paul ryan who has not formally disavowed his performance and has had to try to have a middle ground here. we'll see. this goes to show that mark is right. you need to -- is there needs to be a national renaissance here. not an individual state renaissance here. he needs to figure out how to turn the script. i just don't see something yet. now, wikileaks could produce that miracle. something could happen potentially. you have to imagine that that's clinton's strength if there was one as a campaigner. he has a really tough road ahead. one last thing, this is an important element here. biff tannon, the villain from "back to the future" that was in that ad, season two, the guy who wrote it based it in part on donald trump. he owns a casino. he has this crazy hair-do. it is a fact that he did base it on donald trump. we've done reporting on this. >> sam is on it today, man. he is on it. sam, you are mr. fact. , wait. i have one other thing.

i think joe is right in the blast block. i think part of the reason i think the billy bush tape and the machado stuff resonated more than the accusers, even though the accuser allegations are incredibly serious, is that trump has been able to do a bit of victiming here. he has turned it around and said, you know, the media is doing this immense pile-on. they're out to get me. they are partially what's rigging this election. he is able to turn that into victimization. when it's his own words and they're played back to the voters, you can't play that card. that's what's really hurt him. >> that is what i think what is devastating. >> had to get that in there where. >> thank you for getting that in there. what do i say about sam stein? >> that i'm the best. >> the brightest and the best. >> thank you. >> then there were the private emails about sam stein. >> yeah. i only sent those to podesta. >> i don't want my emails to be hacked. >> none of us do. poor john podesta, what a nightmare. how do you get that phone call?

your last decade -- your emails have been hacked by the russians. geesh. rick tyler, it is hard for me to figure out how mike pence could have walked a tight rope any better than he has. he has two choices. if you are going to agree to be donald trump's running mate, if if you sign up for it, then -- i mean, i know a lot of people say he should have never signed up for it. i understand that. if you signed up for this call of duty, it is hard to imagine anybody walking the tight rope with more grace than mike pence. even, you know, pushing people back when they talk about revolution. you look at that poll in his home state. he has to be sitting there

thinking, my god, this is just absolutely crushing to me. >> i don't remember when indiana was ever -- ever voted democrat until a presidential election. maybe mark or somebody else remembers that. indiana is always a state you can count on for the republicans. particularly when mike pence is the vice presidential nominee from that state, and some say he probably wouldn't have won the governor's race if he had stayed there, but you would expect that his home state would support him and the fact that that's in play. at one point we were at six swing states. we seem to now be at 13 or 14, including arizona, including nevada, including indiana, including north carolina. donald trump would really literally have to run the table on all of them to win and get the electoral college enough to get to 270. it looks virtually impossible. >> not to bring this up again, but when did all of this really go in? when did the bleeding start?

machada. that's when all of this -- >> you know, he came into that first debate, and he had the -- >> it was a tie. >> he just threw it away. >> following week. the whole week. >> lost a lot of weight, and it was a big problem. i mean, that you don't say. >> you say that to me. you call me fat all the time. >> well, different. just a few pounds. it's no big deal. >> his accuser on the plane said when she made her accusation -- when she came forward, she had to bring pictures of herself when she was young because she knew that he would attack how she looks now. i mean, that's disturbing on so many levels. >> yeah. just cuts to the gut of what bothers women about men like that. >> can we at least put at the same level the tape? i mean, come on. what his words -- i'm going to grab her. it's not -- it's both guys. it's not fat shaming. he does not go down any more -- >> i'm not sure what --

>> i don't think -- >> we're not fighting you here. >> your point is that the fat shaming is more seminole to women than what he said on the tape. >> my point is that his words, both are what will be his undoing. he can start with machado, and you can end with what he said to billy bush on that tape. >> very carefully i'll say -- >> what i was talking about was when people see accusations in the heat of a political campaign -- >> agreed, agreed. >> i have seen -- >> i'm not talking about these women. i have said repeatedly that i have no reason to doubt anything any one of them have said about donald trump, but what i have found over 25 years of following campaigns, people take allegations and filter it. it's in one ear. it's out the other. i will tell you, the most effective campaign ad i had in

my first primary and it was the toughest race i ever won, my break-through moment was when i got three quotes from my opponent. you know what, put it on a page with no comments, just three quotes. that was it. boom, that was a turning moment. you take donald trump's own words -- >> absolutely. >> so we agree? >> yes. i am just saying the words are on the tape. >> yeah. that's what i'm saying. donald trump's words will be his undoing if he loses this race. >> then he has taken those words and kind of lost it. now he is running a campaign to try to maybe protect his base, maybe protect his legacy and being able to attack the media after the campaign, but he is not even trying to win the election. >> but you can't really say that. mark halperin, you can't say that when, again, the abc poll shows -- i saw world news tonight last night saying that the race was in the margin of

error. we don't believe it is within the margin of error, but there is a washington post-abc news poll very respected that is showing that this race is still within the margin of error. donald trump is 14 points behind a few weeks back after the billy bush tape. the race isn't double digits in this you are looking at this nbc poll. we don't know how this race is going -- there are 22 days left, and maybe hillary has an 80 3erz chan -- 80% chance of winning, but we don't know. >> still has the roughly same electoral college options he alleges did. he has far fewer days to catch up. chris w hillary rodham cli chris wallace as the moderator on wednesday may be able to produce some vulnerabilities that the campaign can take advantage of. trump hasn't been able to do it on his own.

>> how great is chris wallace? >> he is pretty good. >> he is great. >> all right. rick tyler, thank you. still ahead, what did you say, 22 days left until election day, but already more than a million votes have been cast. in 12 battleground states. chris jansing will join us live from georgia and the hillary clinton campaign is considering expanding their efforts. michelle obama has received a lot of praise for her speech criticizing donald trump last week. "new york times" frank said the first lady is sealing the deal against trump in the 2016 race, and he joins us next. guess what guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i'm hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we're talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn't you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates.

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>> as have you seen, i am a victim of one of the greatest political smear campaigns in the history of our country. they are coming after me to try and destroy what is considered by even them the greatest movement in the history of our country. there's never been anything. >> the whole thing we've been going through, and i hate to say

it, but the whole thing we're going through -- brn bernie sander. the whole thing is one big fix. >> he is a victim. >> yeah, that's a victim. you have seen that guy, and you go that's a victim. i feel so sorry for him. >> that was donald trump over the weekend talking about a rigged election. yesterday trump's top supporters sought to explain that his comments were really directed at the media. >> i think what he feels is the establishment is against him and they're rigging the election against him. not cheating at the polling place, but you got "the times" "washington post" most of the major networks -- >> this is not about election officials at the precinct level. it's amazing that trump is as close as he is right now considering the one-sidedness of the news media barrage, and the best description is by berry castleman in his blog said 14 million citizens in private

ballots picked donald trump, 20 tv executives have decided to destroy him. >> will you accept the results of the election? >> we will absolutely accept the results of the election. look, the american people will speak in an election that will culminate on november 8th, but the american people are tired of the obvious bias in the national media. that's where the sense of a rigged election goes here. >> just hours after trump's surrogates attempted to soften his statements, the nominee pushed back. with trump tweeting the election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing crooked hillary, but also at many polling places. sad. joining us from washington, the chairman of the american conservative union and former political director for president bush, matt -- good to have you back on the show. >> good to be with you. >> you want to make the case for donald trump being a victim, to use his words? >> i don't know if someone like

donald trump could ever be a victim. >> yeah. didn't think so. >> but i d think that -- look, there are a lot of americans -- we've had this huge emergence of all different types of media outlets. there are a lot of americans, like myself, who believe that many people in the mainstream media are not aligned with my views on a lot of issues, and they go over places for their news. this is a dynamic in our society, and i think trump is, you know, connecting to those voters who believe that sometimes they have to go someplace else to get the straight scoop. >> hmm. donny deutsche. >> matt -- >> what did you say? >> i said hmm. >> hey, matt. it's donny. >> hi, donny. >> can we agree that when donald trump is giving his rigged stuff that we are playing a very, very dangerous game that, you know, there's been billions of votes cast over the years. i think we've found 47 fra fraudulent votes over the last decades. our public is based on a democracy of people voting, and

that basically is it's rigged and all his comments about going to the polling places and watch out, that is a very, very dangerous game to be played by that candidate. >> i spent 36 days in the florida recount. there's more subjectivity to elections than we realize. we have the best system on the globe, that being said, and i think that it's legitimate, says and i think that all of us understand whoever wins on election day is the winner, but i do think there are a lot of people who look at this october, donny, and they say usually we have an october surprise. there's a surprise every day. there is so much being thrown out there, most of it seems like it's being done in a way to just try to make donald trump seem like it's illegitimate to even consider voting for him. look, i think there's going to be consequences to this. some people are tuning out because they have made their decision to vote for donald trump, and they feel morally judged and that somehow there's something wrong with that, and they're starting to just tune out because it's, like, look, i want to second the ultimate screw you message to washington.

he is the best guy to do that, and i'm sticking with him. >> mark halperin. >> matt, what percent of the national popular vote is the minimum trump needs to win and what evidence do you have that he could get there? >> so george h.w. bush, what did he get 39 points in 1992 in i losing effort. bill clinton won the presidency twice without getting to 50%. you know, i don't know if i have a hard number. i would like to obviously see him above 45. i don't think -- i don't think he is going to get above 50. >> okay. steve ratner. >> assuming trump loses and let's sort of put a 7% margin or something that's in the range of what the current polls are showing, what do you see his future in the republican party or in the country as some kind of political force? do you think he simply goes back to golf and selling water and what not, or do you think there's actually a role for him in the political discourse going forward? >> steve, that's a great

question. many people inside my party and many in the conservative movement have viewed what's happened in our primary process as all about donald trump. donald trump is -- some people believe like this cancerous tumor that has to be cut out, and what i saw with donald trump is he connected to a whole -- a huge group of voters that felt like they had been forgotten. a lot of them are crossover voters. we used to call them reagan democrats working. blue collar working class folks and others. people who are just disgruntled over the fact that they want republicans to fight harder against the obama agenda. i never viewed this as simply a trump fa no, ma'am non. i viewed it as trump being a smart political entrepreneur like he is in business. he saw something happening, and he got in front of it. so i think this dynamic is real. i think these voters will continue. i think that he has given them a platform and a voice, and i think my party would be foolish to turn them all out because we haven't won a battleground state in 12 years if we don't win any this time, and i think i

obviously -- actually, we have more than 12 years. this time we will win. we're going to be back on the map winning battleground states. it's our only way to get there. i think that we got to grow your coalition. you can't shrink it. we've done a damn fine job of sh rinking it, and i think we have to grow it. whether donald trump is the solution to growing it or not, we're going to find out in just a number of days here. >> sam stein. >> there's a bombshell financial times report this morning that trump's son and jerry cukushner are in talks of making a tv station. we have a candidate that is doing things that are objectively different beyond what any other candidate has done in the past. caught on tape talking about grabbing a woman's genitals, launching into twitter tyrades at a miss universe, suggesting that his opponent was on drugs at a debate. i mean, you say that the media is gauging e in ganging up on t. isn't it true that trump is

asking for this scrutiny with the outlandish beyond the pale rhetoric that he is running. >> he is running the most unorthodoxed presidential campaign we've ever seen. i don't think anybody that's been involved in presidential campaigns -- i have been involved in two -- would suggest that he take these types of steps. someone asked me the other day. can you assure us that he is not going to send any more tweets. i said no, i can't. there is also another side to this. for us republicans who have seen the clinton political machine, you know, the clintons always smile and they look very calm and they're very well scripted but underneath they have a heck of a attack machine that goes after their opponents. >> but these are trump's own words. these are trump's own words. this is not the clintons putting this out. >> i think i'm saying the same -- i think i'm trying to agree with you to a certain extent. >> oh, good. >> what donald trump does is he doesn't use outside allies to take the tough message.

he delivers it himself. now, that's unorthodoxed where, most people would say please don't do that. when he has a beef with somebody, you hear about it from his own mouth in his own twitter. will that be successful or not? there are a certain number of americans who say, look, i don't like everything about him, but i like the fact that he is authentic. he tells me how he feels about things. that is having some resonance. >> well, okay. >> you mentioned us republicans. i follow your wife as well on twitter, and i saw her reaction to trump's comments specifically following the tape and about his comments about machada. you need women voters going forward beyond election day. what do you tell female republicans at home who are contemplating voting for him and constantly are berated by new allegations and his response to these allegations on a daily basis? >> well, i'm not going to justify his comments. >> but you say unorthodoxed. this is beyond unorthodoxed. >> well, it's also unorthodox, but i think that i'm not going to justify his comments.

i think his comments were rep rehencible. yes, you think you heard from my wife. what do you think i heard? i mean, you know, i happen to be married to a rather fiery latina who has opinions. she is going to vote for donald trump. i'll let her speak for herself, but she's going to vote for donald trump. >> we need to have her on where. >> you do. absolutely. not -- she's not going to vote for donald trump because she agrees with those -- the evidence of those aspects of him. she's going to vote for donald trump because at the end of the day she thinks obama has us down a very bad path when it comes to our philosophy,ing and she thinks donald trump is actually going to fight and upset the order of things. look, you don't have to be conservative to look at donald trump and to loo at washington d.c. and say we might not like everything about the guy, but washington d.c. is so broken, do we really need to send a candidate there that's going to do the exact same things we've been seeing the last 25 years? >> matt, thank you very much. we look forward to having your

wife on. thanks for being on where are. >> she's better than me, says mika. take it from me. >> you're pretty good too. you might be right. >> thank you very much. we'll be right back. sureor put themhave ston a rack.e tires. but the specialists at ford like to show off their strengths: 13 name brands. all backed by our low price tire guarantee. yeah, we're strong when it comes to tires. right now during the big tire event, get a $140 rebate by mail on four select tires. ♪ listen to me. i am captain of the track team, and if i'm late...

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>> joining us now "new york times" columnist frank brunhy. you write, in part, this "isn't it interesting that after so many years of keeping a studied distance from the ugly innocence of the political arena, the first lady is throwing herself with such passion into this grow tesk campaign? that says everything about the singular threat that trump poses, and she's emerging as the fiercest counter to it. michelle obama, octopus slayer." >> let them put that on my grave. >> she's effective because she's never gone looking for a fight. we know that about her. she acts when she has something to defend, and as she has made clear in a stirring searing speech late last week, that's more than her husband's legacy, which a trump victory would

decimate. it's her dignity as a woman. it's the dignity of all women. i don't mean to overstate her impact. trump was going down before she joined the chorus of condemnation, but her eloquence is sealing the deal." >> talking about -- >> you are looking at me like you don't believe that, joe where. >> you know what, what i don't believe is how michelle obama has remained silent throughout -- not silent, but has raised her children and been a bit more modest in how often she went out and spoke, but you combine the speech of last week with the speech she gave at the democratic convention -- >> extraordinary. >> -- and those are two political speeches maybe not for the ages, but certainly two political speeches for our ages. about as good as it gets. >> i think maybe for the ages. the reason they're so powerful is partly what you just said. she isn't always out there. she hasn't alls been out there. she has picked and chosen her

shots. >> makes it stronger. >> although here's michelle obama again prosecuting a partisan case. they don't hear her or see her that way. they see a concerned american. one of the things that i think was so interesting about those remarks in new hampshire last week is she sounded not just vulnerable, but she sounded scared. she sounded a little bit scared about the way this -- a lot scared about the way this campaign has gone, about whatsoever terrain we're straying into as a country. >> with a strong, powerful woman showing vulnerability about the possibility of an election. >> i think americans relate to what she's saying and what she's feeling. most of the americans i've talked to regardless of which candidate they support are a bit frightened by the way this election has gone and don't kind of know what we're headed for, and i think you could hear that uncertainty and that fear in michelle obama's voice and her words last week. >> you see authenticity in her words too, and part of it is that she's more on the attack of donald trump as opposed to trying to create or tell people

about a relationship whether or not she has a close relationship with hillary clinton. of course, she's selling her sellable moments, of cose, but when it comes to donald trump, that's really where she, i think, is coming across as strong. >> she doesn't seem -- i mean, she's obviously out there wanting very much for hillary clinton to be elected. that's why you'll see her in crucial swing states. she doesn't sound like a conventional partisan warrior. she does sound like somebody has a human being first -- >> as a mom first. >> as a human being first is offended by what donald trump is saying. and she conveys the sense of i just can't be silent about this and that gives her authenticity. as you say credibility, moral authority. >> as somebody that for seven years was pushed to the side by many of her husband's political opponents as a figure -- a part zplan figure. her speech at the convention, at the democratic convention, is

extraordinarily unifying. >> that passage in that speech about raising her daughters in a white house built by black slaves, what was so great about that is, yes, there was some wa recrimination about the country's sins, but there was also a full appreciation of the progress. >> that is to me, that is america the beautiful. >> that's right. >> set up with the best of intentions for some, with the worst for other. and barack obama and michelle obama's legacy moving forward. that is, by the way, that is a line for the ages. is it not? >> so nuanced, so balanced, so true. >> thank you so much. still ahead, there have been rumblings that donald trump plans to launch his own television network. his white house run doesn't work out. we'll have a new report this morning that claims those discussions are now under way. stay with us. l our friends about your job, maybe let's play up the digital part. but it's a manufacturing job. yeah, well ge is doing a lot of cool things digitally

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with us now, nbc sports soccer analyst and co-host of men in blazers. roger bennett. >> finally happened. how has it happened? >> push them out of europe in the second world war, put a man on the moon, now you have gone one better. no one is happier than you. you have birthed your first ever premier league manager, 58-year-old bod bradley of new jersey, took over the reins.

slightly dodgy swansy. >> slightly dodgy. >> think of them like david blat in reverse. huge krursable, his player in the light blue, playing arsenal. and they spotted them a two-goal lead within 31 minute. look at this defense. more wide than the senatorial race in nevada. it gets worse for bob bradley. darkness descends a couple minutes later, same man. almost same position. even theo can't miss the net. >> even theo. >> god love him, but, a life line. 38th minute. look at that. finish, mika. he's the best thing out of iceland. arsenal try to put the game away with a blake griffin-esque dunk here. a beautifully violent act of poetry. >> beautifully violent.

all right, great. roger, come on. >> most american act of all time. 3-2, couldn't get back in it. unfortunately for bob bradley. >> roger, why didn't you lead with this? you buried the lead. >> look at this guy. a dutch guy. >> but you did. >> that's why they call it double dutch in holland. two penalties. >> they'll get them next time. >> look at this one. like a clayton kershaw curveball. manchester city starting to stumble, still topped arsenal. >> so they missed one, but they're not going to miss the second penalty kick. i know they're not. >> we already saw it, a replay. no, he did it both times. >> vin scully of soccer. >> did we miss aguero's penalty kick, too? >> they showed them both. unbelievable. the whole next hour, we're going

to show martin. >> have you ever seen that? i mean, missing two? >> first time in 95 years in an everton jersey. who could go top if they win today? if they have a thrashing win of manchester united. it's like obama fighting -- >> there's going to be 3:00 this afternoon. mika wants to tell you something. >> let me ask you something quickly. united legend, united legend. actually attacking moreno now, saying he wasn't tough enough over the summer on the team. >> yes, america cares about the tiny ginger man who says things to get in the newspapers when you read and then repeat on american television. 5:30, what's happening? >> this is our generation's vin scully. >> lot them put that on my grave. >> will you be watching? >> of course, i will. >> up next, new polls this morning are painting two completely different portraits

of the state of the presidential race. one shows clinton with an 11-point lead, while another has the race locked in a statistical tie. plus, an example of the tension and anger over this presidential election as a republican party office gets fire bombed over the weekend. that story is straight ahead. we're back in just a moment. d'se campuses. or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. nobody's hurt, but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement™, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, we'll replace the full value of your car. liberty stands with you™.

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or keeping a hotel's guests cuttinconnected.i to 35,000 fans... businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. the affordable care act is not affordable. what will you do to bring the costs down and make coverage better? >> well, ken, that's a great question. i agree that obamacare can be improved, ken. but ken, it does have its benefits. number one, insurance companies

can't deny you coverage because of a pre-existing condition. number two, no lifetime limits, which is a big deal if you have serious health problems. and number three -- sorry. i thought i -- and number three, women can't be charged more than -- i thought i -- women can't be charged more than men for health insurance. okay. and number four -- >> great kate mckinnon. >> i'm obsessed with her. is that okay to say in. >> she's amazing. >> she's a savant. >> there was another part where she goes, ken, let me -- let me lean over here like i practiced. >> step, step, step, step, pace. good morning, everyone. it's monday, october 17th. are you a teacher? >> no.

>> do you like children, no? >> ah, connecting. >> have you seen children? >> yes. >> okay, we have a lot in common. >> we have the money guy, the cheesy guy, and the foreign policy guy. >> what guy? >> cheesy. definitely. and inappropriate. probably uncomfortable for women. >> we also have managing editor on that note of bloomberg politics and cohost of with all due respect, mark halperin, sam stein, still looking like surp aco. >> here, we have veteran ad man donny deutsch. >> veteran. >> richard haass, and former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst, steve rattner. >> i think for haas, we go haas. mark halperin, listen, a tale of two polls yesterday. the abc poll, which we are going to get to quickly. >> actually right now. why don't we do that? >> shows pretty close.

within the margin of error according to abc news. >> thank you. >> then the nbc poll differently. have you looked into, we're going to weed through this, but have you looked into it before we show people the polls, the difference in the methodologies here, why there's such a wide diverd divergence in the polls. >> it's a sample, talking to a lot of people doing polling in the battleground states because campaigns and political organizations don't do national polls. trump is down to about five or six points nationally, maybe seven. but he's going to have to have a national surge if he has a chance to win the race. he's currently not in a position to win anything like the 265 he needs to get to the distance of 270. >> so the "washington post"/abc poll puts clinton ahead by four points. that's 47% to 43%. and leaves trump within the margin of error. the poll also showed little impact for the "access hollywood" video. 1% saying it made them more likely to vote for him.

35% saying -- >> that was donny. okay. so we have that 1% here. >> god. and 64% saying it won't make a difference. this is important because -- well, i'm not going to say it. >> asked if there were very or somewhat enthusiastienthusiasti. 83% of clinton voters said they were slightly more than the 79% of trump voters. that's down from above 90% for both obama and romney in 2012. >> that's a ten' point swing, with clinton up, trump down, as far as the enthusiasm thing. >> meanwhile, another national poll taken over the same exact period shows a wider clinton lead. the new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll shows hillary clinton with an 11-point lead over donald trump in a four-way race, 48% to 37%. among key groups, our nbc poll finds clinton continuing to dominate among women. leading trump by 20 points. he has a much smaller 3-point

lead among men. and clinton's other wide margin is among nonwhites where she's ahead by 60 points. trump leads among white voters by 11 point. on personal qualities, clinton trails trump on being honest and trustworthy. >> that one still has to sting brooklyn, that donald trump is still seen as more honest and trustworthy. >> but both are low. >> extremely low. >> another word that goes straightforward. they can note his blunt talk with honesty. >> while 6 in 10 believe clinton has the right temperament while 23% say the same of trump. >> that number right there, steve rattner, continues to be what, you know, like a good fighter. in boxing, would always punch at the weak point. of their opponent. and that's what the clinton campaign has been punching at, temperament, temperament,

temperament, for months now. >> the clinton campaign has been punching at it. one of the things that struck me in both of these polls is you had a lower percentage of people saying they thought trump was qualified to be president than you had people who said they were going to vote for him for president. you have people voting for president admitting he's not qualified to be president. >> that's the thing, mika. let's talk about that for a second. we were -- we have been talking to people an awful lot off set about this. and i tell you what. the views have hardened. i don't know if it's 4, i don't think it's 11. maybe like mark said, maybe six or seven. even though over the past month or so, far from people saying i don't know how i'm going to vote and moving back and forth, they hardened in their position. they get angry on both sides. i have been yelled at by trump supporters who say i'm part of this great media conspiracy. i have been yelled aby clinton voters. when i simply say, oh, this poll says it's four points, i don't know what that means.

they start screaming. why are you trying -- >> everywhere i go. >> it's unbelievable. >> people will ask about the election. i will say two words and they interrupt me and start yelling. i don't even know where it's coming from. and sometimes what it's about, people are so upset about this. >> we were at a charity event, donny, and mika just answered a question, by actually being critical of donald trump, the person who loathed donald trump started screaming at her for five minutes at a charity event. and everybody kept saying she's agreeing with you. and the screaming continued. it's crazy. >> so upset. >> what's scaring me, and i'm sure we can get to this, is obviously, trump is starting to tee up the loss, talking about the rigged election. what is worrying me is come election night, for the first time, i think we're going to see a candidate who loses not giving a concession speech, and donald trump is going to say it was

rigged and i'm not conceding and i'm announcing my run in 2020 for the trump revolution party. and you have a sheriff who came out, i need to read this, the isis what's scary. a sheriff came out who had spoken at a convention, a sheriff in milwaukee, and said it's incredible our institutions of government, white house, congress, department of justice, big media are corrupt and all they do is bitch, pitch forks and torches time. this is a man with a gun and a badge who spoke at the convention, and i'm frightened that that rage post-election is going to turn into -- >> i disagree. first of all, i mean, and this is the problem with both sides. we have out of north carolina the fire bombing of a republican party headquarters. and threats scrawled on the wall, and we'll get to the story in a minute. officials in fact are trying to figure out who firebombed this republican headquarters down in orange county, north carolina, this weekend. the building suffered massive

smoke damage, and there was fire damage. authorities say that there was a bottle filled with flammable substance that was thrown through the window, and it happened 9:00 saturday night and 9:00 sunday morning, and the vandals spray painted a swastika and the words nazi republicans leave town or else. this is the sort of rage that is simmering, obviously, donald trump is saying things on the campaign trail that go -- i'm not preaching moral equivalency between what the candidates are saying. i'm saying, though, there is such rage on both sides. we're talking about social settings. just people screaming, and i'm agreeing with you. you can stop screaming at me. >> first of all, it's not totally exceptional. you ve seen a coarsening of american politics over the last couple years or decades, where

compromise has become somewhat of a dirty word. now i'm going to slightly agree with donny, i'm sorry. it's monday morning, i realize that. what worries me is as rough as this has been, and you're right, rage is the word. i don't think it goes away the morning after. it's not what whatever donald trump would do if he were to lose, but governing. you're looking at divisions deep in both parties, divisions that are deep between them. it's kind of a permanent campaign, and i just think whoever wins is going to be extraordinarily hard to build working coalitions around compromise to get things done. and that's what worries me as much as anything over the next three weeks with what happens over the next four years. >> i'm not sure. mika, and this is something where i don't know if donald trump packs up his bags and goes down. let me finish. goes down to mar-a-lago and goes to all of his golf courses because, you know, he has

complained quietly that he's left a great life behind. and i wonder if after the last balloon falls, he goes back to that great life. because i will tell you, the life that donald trump lived before this far exceeded the life he's living right now. >> i think it goes beyond donald trump. i don't know what he's going to do. i'm simply saying the fault lines now in american politics go way beyond a single personality. even if he were to go back to the life, which i don't think he will, there are divisions within parties and betweenthem. 2020 would begin very early. i think the fault lines are pronounced. >> i think two things. first, i'm more on your side on this one, i think he will try to remain some kind of a force in the american dialogue. he's an entertainer. he makes his money off entertaining and that being visible. i suspect we will see him. i don't think he will be a force, necessarily, in american politics. i agree with you completely, richard. the next president is going to

have a really tough time governing because i think the fault lines are really deep, not just between the two parties but within the republican party, paul ryan has a really tough time governing his caucus, and hillary clinton is going to be under a lot of pressure from the liberal wing of the democratic party. i think it's doing to be a really tough time. >> speaking of hillary clinton, that's the other big story this morning. wikileaks has released what appears to be transcripts of paid speeches to hillary clinton from goldman sachs with a series of data dumps over the weekend wrfrb the documents were a part of the group's latest release of e-mails allegedly hacked from the personal account of campaign chair john podesta. they have not been independently authenticated by nbc news and the clinton campaign and u.s. intelligence officials have blamed russia for hacking the e-mails. one e-mail claims to show hillary clinton's 2008 presidential campaign polling about obama's ties to the muslim faith hours after her surprise victory in the january 8th,

2008, new hampshire primary. >> after obama's surprise victory. so when hillary lost in iowa, in 2008, came in third place to barack obama, behind john edwards, yeah, this is podesta, who was copied on an e-mail dated wednesday, january 9th, mika. >> okay. so the longtime clinton campaign strategist paul begala is discussing a poll that tested attack lines against obama. one of the questions in the poll asked whether voters would be more or less likely to support senator obama if they knew that, quote, obama's father was a muslim, and obama grew up among muslims in the world's most populist islamic country. as for an explanation, paul begala told the new york post he was polling to defend obama. >> no, no, actually, this was the day after obama beat -- >> so bad. >> -- hillary clinton. that's -- >> that was a draft poll

questionnaire that tested potential right-wing attacks on obama. >> the poll also included suggested questions on obama's use of cocaine. questioned his patriotism for not covering his heart during the national anthem. and mark, this was the day after the iowa loss, hillary clinton lost. or new hampshire? was this the day after new hampshire? okay, the day after new hampshire. >> one of two things is true about paul begala. eter he's not telling the truth about the poll or he's one of the most forward looking people in democratic politics. >> i'm going to go with the first. >> even by helping hillary clinton fight to win the nomination, he was thinking ahead to the general election where his candidate would lose and barack obama would need to be defended. >> you remember, barack obama got so angry at them with their whisper campaign on him being a muslim. or coming from a muslim country, a muslim father. remember that scene on the tarmac where he was yelling at

hillary clinton? >> i do. it was featured in the book "game change" about that campaign. >> i have never seen this look before. >> i love that. >> also in the wikileaks hack are transcripts purportedly showing remarks hillary clinton made to goldman sachs employees during three appearances in 2013, touching on a number of topics, including the war in syria. clinton allegedly told the crowd that the best way to take on the assad regime is as covertly as possible. my view was to intervene as covertly as possible for americans to intervene, we used to be much better at this than we are now. now you know everyone can't help themselves. they have to go out and tell the friendly reporters and someone else. look what we're doing, and i want credit for it. >> she's talking about barack obama there. >> speaking on russia. >> unbelievably. >> clinton purportedly said i would love it if we could continue to build a more positive relationship with russia. we would like to see putin be

less defensive toward a relationship with the united states. so that we could work together on some issues. and clinton also allegedly touched on the 2008 financial crisis, discussing the root causes with goldman employees, seeming to avoid kridicism of the banks. i think there's a lot that could have been avoided in terms of misunderstanding and really politicizing what happened with greater transparency, with greater openness on all sides. you know what happened. how did it happen? how do we prevent it from happening? and finally, in a separate e-mail from 2012, an employee at the clinton foundation allegedly told several aides that qatar wanted five minutes to meet with former president bill clinton in new york to give him $1 million as a birthday present. the e-mail goes on to say that qatar is looking for suggestions from the clinton foundation to place its $20 million gathered to invest in haiti. >> let's talk about russia first since we have you here.

hillary clinton in 2013, first of all, obviously, criticizing barack obama, who leaked the administration would leak the terrorists that they killed that day and had leaked that he would look over lists of what terrorists to kill that particular day in the 2012 campaign. but talk about russia, which is absolutely fascinating that even in 2013, she wanted a close relationship with vladimir putin. >> what's interesting, what it tells us is the pace and the degree to which u.s./russian relations have deteriorating. this is one of the big developments in the world, we have gone from a difficult but okay relationship to something that even now the russians are saying it's the worst it's been since the worst moments of the cold war with the idea of u.s./russian military confrontations or coming into contact either in syria or yearp is not off the table. so it just show s -- there's nothing bad about what she's saying. it's a real snapshot, how quickly things have changed.

i don't think there's anything in this that causes problems for her like the previousnes which talked about open borders, free trade and all that. there she ran into trouble between what she was saying privately and what she's been saying publicly. >> we have sam stein's picture back out of washington. $1 million as a birthday gift. i know you have a lot of friends, a lot of your rich friends from dartmouth that come in and give you a million dollars for your birthday present. for most politicians just from a self-described red neck from arkansas getting a $1 million check from qatar for his birthday, that's big stuff. >> i call the $1 million gift club the second-tier friends. this is how i grade my friends. >> that's sick. >> i mean, as mark said, this confirms sort of the worst portraits of the clintons and how they operated out of office. and it raises obvious questions about why they were accepting this money.

you know, there were charitable purposes that went along with the clinton foundation, but it came with a conflict of interest. i think we should correct what we were talking about with respect to the polling. it wasn't the clinton campaign that did the polling about obama and cocaine use and muslim faith. it was a group called progressive media usa. it was an outside government outfit, democratic allied outfit, in 2008 that was tasked with essentially looking up the vulnerabilities of each perspective candidate. >> john podesta and -- >> paul begala, progressive media usa. i know. it was the poll was done by progressive media usa. a guy named tom matsy, an operative around town, in clean energy now, but this was nots a clinton campaign -- >> come on, sam. >> it really wasn't. >> the heat of an ugly, ugly campaign. this was even -- >> being very honest about it. progressive media usa. >> even before racism charges

starting being leveled between the two campaigns. this was, regardless -- >> it was said it was a clinton campaign poll. that is factually not true. >> okay, would it be safe to say that paul begala and john podesta were not talking about barack obama and his muslim ties for the benefit of a general election campaign against mitt romney in the midst of a nasty fight? >> what we know is that mark penn did famously bring up the cocaine use in an msnbc hit. there were subtle references to obama's foreignness, but i think it's objectively true that they didn't push it as a major issue at all in the 2008 campaign. what progressive media was doing was checking if it could be a huge vulnerability for obama. >> no, they weren't. >> this is a fairly mundane campaign operation here. >> in january of 2008, paul

begala was not asking about barack obama's muslim identity because he was concerned about a november election against mitt romney. >> the idea was to see if he would be a vulnerable general election candidate. >> sam, are you really -- are you saying this with a straight face? did they teach you this at dartmouth, to say this with a straight face. >> you reread it as if it was a clinton campaign poll. i'm correcting that. >> you can correct that and say it's a distinction without a difference in the midst of one of the ugliest democratic battles in recent memory. >> can i jump in? >> it's really not, there's no difference. >> first, let's also always asterisk, not that these aren't true. these are russian hacks. and i genuinely went if you went into the e-mails of any political campaign and did a deep dive, once again, not excusing that. >> should we not report on this?

>> we should. >> because it sounds like you're excusing it. >> i'm saying i would bet anything that on any political campaign that's ever been done, private going back -- >> so they all do it? they all do it, right? >> yeah. >> a million dollar present. >> that went to his foundation. >> how do you know that? because reuters reporting this on friday or saturday and said that they couldn't confirm that it wasn't a personal gift. >> a million dollars? >> i would like to know that. i also want to jump back really fast because i think it's a critical point about trump. you said that he's going to go away. i couldn't disagree with you more. he's got that shot of heroin. everything that drives this man is attention and adulation, and going back -- >> figuratively speaking. the heroin. >> is not going to give him that. he's going to continue to be this face of hate or whatever you want to call it. by the way, he can't go back. >> still ahead on "morning joe," an unprecedented decision by the committee to protect journalists, to publicly denounce a political candidate. why the group says donald trump

is a threat to press freedom. >> and comparing the presidential race to a sport, donald trump issues a new challenge to hillary clinton. a drug test ahead of wednesday's debate. but first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> well, the super moon, did you see this on saturday night? it was beautiful. coming over the horizon. it's a little closer than normal. that's a picture of the dallas/ft. worth area. you go across social media and can see so many great images. hopefully you guys could see that. for today, unseasonable warmth. the heat is off, ac on in many spots. record heat from texas all the way back up possibly almost in cleveland. st. louis today, tulsa, little rock, nashville, and then on tuesday, we take some of the record warmth all the way to the east coast. we're not done with summer yet. 82 in new york, d.c. around 83. all possible record highs. even into wednesday, a few left here. in the west, we had a big storm over the weekend. now that's moving through the

intermountain west. very windy day today in the rockies and still showery weather in the northwest. any airport travel, possibly seattle, some issues. everybody else, looking for a fantastically warm middle of october week. new york city, you're included. near record heat on tuesday and wednesday. you'll be cold by the weekend, so soak this up. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. you're not a cook, if you don't cook. you're not a firefighter, if you don't fight fires. or a coach, if you don't coach. and you can't be our leader, if you don't lead. our next president needs to take action on social security, or future generations could lose up to $10,000 a year. 're working hard, what about you? hey candidates, do your jobs. keep social security strong. you're at the top of your game.. at work or at play, you're unstoppable. nothing can throw you off track.

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>> i don't know. maybe -- we're like athletes, right? hey, look, i beat 17 senators, governors, i beat all these people. we're like athletes. so athletes, they're making them more and more, but athletes, they make them take a drug test, right? i think we should take a drug test prior to the debate. i do.

i think we should -- why don't we do that? we should take a drug test prior, because i don't know what's going on with her. but at the beginning of her last debate, she was all pumped up at the beginning. and at the end, it was like, take me down. she could barely reach her car. so i think we should take a drug test. anyway, i'm willing to do it. >> coming up on "morning joe," nbc's chris jansing joins us live with the latest numbers so far from early voting. plus, nbc news investigative correspondent ronan farrow reports on the vetting process for syrian refugees trying to enter the u.s. "morning joe" is back in a moment. what powers the digital world? communication.

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>> she cares. she cares. >> the campaign is weighing whether to expand its efforts in states that democrats haven't won in decades. according to the "washington post," the campaign will soon decide whether to make a more aggressive play for states such as utah, arizona, and georgia. and speaking of georgia, early voting begins there this morning, and will continue for three weeks, leading up to election day, in the last presidential election, nearly 2 million people in georgia voted early. almost half the total number of that state's ballots cast in that election. according to the nbc news data analytics lab, using data provided by target smart, over 1.5 million vote have been cast in the 2016 presidential election nationwide so far. more democratic affiliated voters have cast early ballots in arizona, colorado, iowa, michigan, ohio, and wisconsin. in florida, north carolina, nevada, pennsylvania, and georgia, however, more republican affiliated voters

have cast ballots so far. so, let's bring in nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing live in macon, georgia, as early voting gets under way there. chris. >> reporter: the doors literally just opened. take a look. there are some people who have been here for an hour and a half, waiting for a chance to come here. this has been a really heavy registration year for georgia. half a million people registering in this state between the primary and now. and the clinton folks really believe there's a chance that they can make a play here. they think a couple things are going on, and we have some graphics we can show you. the first is the changing demographics. macon, where i am, is a largely black city. but overall, look at her numbers. she's up almost 80 points among black voters in the state of georgia. winning heavily among hispanics. when you look at the demographics of men versus women, she's winning women as well, not as strongly as she is

nationally, but winning women enough that it offsets what's going on with the men. and honestly, trump is underperforming with men here, which is a real problem for him. look, this would be an incredible play for them. 7 of the last 8 presidents who were voted for here in georgia were republican. in 1992, when bill clinton won, he only had 43% of the vote. ross perot had something like 12%, i think. so what's the clinton campaign going to be looking at? or what should we be looking at to see whether or not the clinton campaign is really going to make a play? one thing that's already happening, according to the democratic state party chair here, he says normally democrats would be pulling people out of here to go work in north carolina. they're not doing that. they've got 39 full-time people in what they call these coordinated offices, the dnc, the state party, and some clinton folks. so if they decided to come in, they feel like they're well positioned to really get up and running here in these closing

weeks of the campaign. the second thing to watch, obviously, is ad money. they had one small ad buy, but as you saw in that report in the "washington post," and i have gotten this confirmed with folks here on the ground in the clinton campaign, they're looking at whether to make an ad buy here, and because voting is obviously already under way, it's something they're going to have to do very, very quickly. >> all right, chris jansing, thank you so much. joining us now from washington, "washington post" media columnist margaret sullivan. her latest piece goes behind the scenes of the unprecedented decision by the committee to protect journalists to pub lackly denounce a political candidate. and she writes in part this, for decades, sandra mims rowe was a rigorous newspaper editor who demanded deep reporting from the journalists she led. so it's not surprising that rowe would do the same when an idea surfaced at the committee to protect journalists where she has been board chairwoman for five years. the idea, cpj would make a strong statement against donald

trump on the first amendment grounds. the kind of thing the organization had never done before. cpj's global missi is to try to keep journalists from being jailed or killed. but it hasn't been involved before in politics. what was the evidence that trump was a threat to press freedom? she wanted to know. the evidence delivering a staff memo was overwhelming. it made the case that trump not only despics journalists but also he has no understanding or respect for the role they play in our democracy. good to have you on our show. give us a little bit more about trump's relationship with the media and why it was so important to make such a strong and unusual statement on the part of cpj. >> hi, mika. hi, joe. it's been -- i was very paradoxical relationship, i think, because the media gave him a great deal of essentially free advertising early on. and now things have gotten -- they have gotten much tougher,

and as a result, he's pushing back very, very hard. i think cpj, the journalism rights organization, felt so strongly that they had to make a statement because they try to keep journalists safe around the world. and if press rights are threatened in america, that really has implications globally. >> and he threatens the safety of journalists? >> well, you know, certainly journalist s are having a tough time at his rallies. i don't think he specifically threatens journalists' safety, but he's definitely threatening press rights. he's talked many times about wanting to go up against or to change the libel laws and to change the laws that allow journalists to do their jobs. so that's very threatening. >> margaret, it's donny. you talk about the paradox vis-a-vis trump and the media. the ultimate paradox is trump's life. he has used the media to create who he is, his brand. i want to get back to something

you touched on because i don't know if people truly understand what's going on at these rallies, how basically, the press is in one area and they're booed and heckled and trump actually uses that as a tool in these rallies. and it's frightening when you see it. >> yeah, it's become a very ugly situation. and a very scary one, i think. and you know, for me, i guess i'm such a true believer, i think that journalists have such an important role in our society. it's very, very hard to see this happening. and i'm glad that cpj has made such a strong statement. >> margaret, when you talk about cpj protecting journalists from being killed, of course, i think of russia and the number of journalists there who either died mysteriously or disappeared or were killed. looking back here at home, though, with trump and some of the rhetoric he used, what is more frightening to you, what donald trump has said or the fact that so many millions of his supporters believe him and agree with him with regards to the media? >> yeah, he's really riled

people up and made people mistrust the media in a way that is really troubling to me because, again, i know how important our work is. and you know, now there's this sort of feeling that we're evil, we're part of this rigged conspiracy. and it's going to be very hard to go up against that. i think that we need to start sort of telling our story a little bit better. >> the "washington post" margaret sullivan, thank you so mch for being with us. we greatly appreciate it. >> thank you. >> and we have much more "morning joe" straight ahead. cah that complicated credit card that limits where you earn bonus cash back. or... you can get the quicksilver card from capital one. quicksilver earns you unlimited 1.5% cash back on ev-e-ry purchase, ev-e-ry-where. i shouldn't have to ask. what's in your wallet?

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what did you find? >> you know this has been one of the most divisive flash points of this entire election cycle. more and more as the debates going on. the issue is that in the coming year, the obama administration has said they want to get 110,000 refugees resettled in this country. that's a 30% increase. and especially for that small portion of the population that will be coming in from syria. fleeing one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes in the world there. this has become a politically hot issue and in a sense, they're finding themselves under a whole different kind of fire. take a look. >> like many families in dallas, this family starts their day getting the kids ready and taking them to school. but then it's off to refugee orientation. >> before the taxes are taken out. >> they fled the war in syria four years ago. lived in a refugee camp and arrived in dallas in july. >> translator: everything destroyed. >> did you lose friends, family?

>> translator: my cousin. they bombed his house. >> daily ryan's group, the international resue committee, helps resettle refugees. >> they're fleeing violence, persecution. >> to get here, syrian refugees are screened for 18 to 24 months. according to the white house, only 1% make it past the first round of screening by the u.n. after which they're scrutinized by at least four u.s. government agencies. >> have there been any documented instances of people getting through that vetting process and then turning out to be terrorists? >> there have been no documented instances of any syrian refugees entering and having any issues whatsoever. >> something the u.s. government confirms. many texans support the refugees. >> we're all about welcoming a stranger. >> pastor susan bratt's church recently heltd a reception for the newcomers. but not everyone is as welcoming. >> don't want people who hate

freedom to destroy the country. >> you think they're going to take away freedom? >> absolutely. >> greg abhas been fighting refugee resettlement, even suing the federal government to stop it as the national fight rages. >> we have no idea who they are, where they're from. there's going to be the great trojan horse of all time. >> when politicians say people should be afraid of syrian refugees, what is your response to that? >> translator: we're against anything that hurts people. >> does it hurt you when you hear those things said about people like you? >> translator: of course. >> what do you tell your children about america? >> translator: it's safe life. your future is here. >> escaping war but finding themselves in the american political cross fire. there's a lot of complicated political rhetoricand the issue but the bottom line is this is an extremely rigorous vetting process. it takes a long time. one of the hardest ways to get

into this country. i found over and over again talking to people, even in the heart of texas there, people are supportive of refugees. we showed one of those examples of people who are not. that certainly exists, but again and again, we heard my father is an immigrant. my grandfather is an immigrant. they have been through hell. we want to welcome them. >> staying on the topic of syria, meanwhile, top diplomats from the united states and united kingdom are threatening russia with more sanctions if the country doesn't change course in syria. >> u.s. secretary of state john kerry and boris johnson stopped short of ruling out military action. when asked if anything can be done before president obama leaves office, secretary kerry said the president has not yet taken any options off the table. his british counterpart said the most powerful weapon they have at this point over putin, new sanctions. >> which of course, beanna, just will not stop the killing and the star fagz in aleppo that sanctions promoted by russia and

assad. >> how the u.s. didn't see this coming back boggles me. the u.s. basically said have at it. you give it a try. we're not going to go in. now, of course, you see the ramifications of this, and putin only beefing up his aggression there. hoping that that takes away from problems he's facing at home. >> ronan -- i'm sorry, go ahead. >> history will treat barack obama very unkindly over syria. >> this really is -- >> red lines. >> red lines that have been crossed. aleppo will be a dark, dark smirch on his legacy. let's talk about the media's responsibility, though. how difficult is it to get the news out about aleppo? to get the news out about syria? this is one of the great humanitarian crises of our time, probably the greatest since world war ii, the end of world war ii. this is the big story internationally. it has been for several years now, as we take a look at a bombed out aleppo.

>> i would love to live in an american media landscape where this could lead the evening news every single night. you have put it on morning tv in a way many people don't. it's not enough. none of it is enough. people are dying there, suffering at a scale that is just so massive, and it does directly come back to the united states for the reasons you just talked about. you know, i have been interviewing commanders in and outside of aleppo. they're angry about the way the united states has handled this. there is a feeling that we have failed our own standards morally. >> we have washed our hands of the genocide going on in syria right now. and as we speak this morning, children are being systematically starved to death in that syrian town by the russians and by assad. and we're doing nothing about it. >> ronan farrow, thank you very much. >> thank you, ronan. greatly appreciate it. >> back in a moment with more "morning joe." ip it... ...around and flip through images, and then i can use it... ...as a tablet. go in and work on the details.

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and why a pro football team chose us to deliver fiber-enabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. and why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their dealer network streamlined and nimble. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. thank you for having me. i would like to begin tonight by attempting a casual lean. got it. >> all right. >> you know, mika, if journalism in america lives for another 1,000 years, i believe media historians will look back at what sam stein has done today, i do, and i believe this with all my heart. >> i love sam. >> they will say this is their

finest hour. with that, sam, you have made history this morning. with that, we would like to begin by asking you what you learned today. >> i have learned nothing. but i have -- but i have dispensed some knowledge to you all. i have dispensed some knowledge to you all, including the fact that biff tannin, the villain, back to the future 2, loosely based on donald j. trump. thank you, you're welcome. >> where actually did you learn that? was that in like the "new york times"? where was that? >> we had a reporter, arthur delaney at the "huffington post," look into this because the parallels were unseemly, and it was confirmed. >> so let me ask you another question. it's related. how long are you going to keep your beard? >> this is an ongoing discussion with my wife, who likes it. i think i'm going to keep it until after the election. >> no, please. >> so your wife likes it. >> she likes it. i know mika hates it. >> yes. >> but she doesn't matter as much as my wife. >> also likes sour milk. i don't get it. >> women dig sam stein.

i'm just saying. >> i know they do. >> jealous? >> very jealous. i am. >> joe, did you learn anything? >> no, that's it. >> bianna? >> matt schlapp got an earful from his wife. >> what's her name? >> mercedes. >> we'll have her on the show. >> the invitation is open. >> we would like to thank our friends from colorado christian university for stopping by today. thank you guys so much. >> oh, my god. >> we want to stay as far away from you as possible. take a shot. take the shot, and then we'll go. there you go. thank you guys so much. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> thank you, joe. thank you, mika. i'm stephanie ruhle. this morning, dangerous talk. donald trump claiming the election is rigged. >> hillary is running for president in what looks like to many people a totally rigged election. >> tweeting just now about widespread voter fraud as he