words? >> trivia's hard. >> trivia is hard. but it's a great crowd. >> it was easier last time. >> that's going to do it here. chuck todd is live at unlv, continuing our coverage. stay tuned, we'll see you in a bit. i'm chuck todd, coming to you live from the university of nevada. home of the runnin' revs. we're four hours away from the presidential debate, and the trump campaign is teasing more surprises to come. this race is not where it was before debate season began remember all the way back in late september, before the first

debate on september 26th? it feels like a lifetime ago, wasn't it? it was really three weeks ago. trump was on the verge of being normalized by the rest of republican party. trump/clinton deadlocked before the key debate. drummed clinton deadlocked in colorado, pennsylvania. before that face-off, the campaign were saying, just you wait. >> clearly no matter what poll you look at, trump is moving in the right direction. he's been disciplined with his message, i think he's been doing very well across the country. >> i would not underestimate trump in these debates. your own nbc polls said he won that debate. she has a lot of explaining to do. >> he's going to confound all skpeks tagtss as he did throughout the primary season.

>> clinton has benefited more from the debate so far than trump has. 31% of voters said the last two presidential debates made them more likely to vote for clinton the debates made them more likely to vote for trump. 52% said the debates have made no difference. the negative impact for trump has been because of what he's done and in part because of what he's said ahead of the first debate. he decided against traditional debate prep. he stepped on every single land mine hillary clinton dropped in front of him. >> donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. he said back in 2006. gee i hope it does collapse, i can go in and buy some and make some money. well, it did collapse. >> that's called business by the way. >> maybe he doesn't want the american people, all of you watching tonight to know that he's paid nothing in federal taxes, the only years that

anybody's ever seen were a couple years when he had to turn them over to state authorities when he was trying to get a casino license, and they showed he didn't pay any federal income tax. so -- >> that makes me smart. >> and, of course, trump bit hard on clinton's debate last night. then the october surprises began one after another, first the new york times published trump's 1995 tax return. then the hot mike moment with billy bush. and his response to it. at the last debate, trump pulled a last minute stunt himself holding an event with clinton accusers. since then nine women have come forward to accuse trump of sexual misconduct. he denies all of those allegations.

since that first debate, all of that is combined to define trump in ways his republican rivals weren't able to now. now tonight, it's less about what trump can do to save himself or whether he can stabilize the entire house and senate. his campaign manager urged trump to do one thing tonight, to help his party and himself. >> in a word, your one word of advice for donald? >> focus. there you go, let's turn first to the clinton campaign. robbie, welcome. >> let me start with tonight's debate. if there was criticism of secretary clinton at the last debate, at the second debate from even many of your supporters, it was, why didn't she go after him more? is she going to be a little more passive tonight or a little more

aggressive? >> i think what she's going to try to do more than anything else is spend as much time as she can talking about the issues this election is about the voters and their future, trump is going to try to throw a lot of mud, she's going to stay focused, steady. >> it's always easy to say. she didn't do that in the first debate. >> it's not -- wouldn't be -- it's a nice thing to say, but is that reality? >> she came to the debate prepared she's come to all of them prepared, trump has not. she's come capable of describing specific plans and ideas she has that will make a difference in people's lives. that is what she'll stay focused on. trump has been incapable of describing specific policies, been incapable of proving he will make a difference in people's lives. >> if there's one thing about

the wikileaks. what's come out. i know you guys aren't confirming or denying it, it's stolen property. the larger picture that's been painted is the fact that she calculates everything. every position change she made that it was a calculated move, trying to figure out how to move her from the center to the left why -- is that a fair portrayal and are you concerned that this is painted this sort of -- she's not a genuine authentic progressive? >> i think what's going on here is that the russians in an effort to help trump want these questions, this conversation. they're selectively leaking materials at a rate that it is impossible for us to validate them. for the purpose of calling things into question. what happened, who said what, is this true, is this not true? >> we're not going to verify any of these right now, they're coming thousands a day, it's too much for us to do that. >> what part of -- we cannot look at wikileaks and i could

make a case she went to ohio, at the end of the day, she's a moderate. it's fair to say that she's not a comfortable progressive, is it not? >> she was asked in the debates are you a moderate? her response was, i'm a progressive who likes to get things done. she answered that clearly. what you see in those e-mails, we don't know which are real, which are not. you see a candidate who is sweating the details trying to work out specific policy issues. trump has been spreading lies and we're seeing fresh conspiracy theorys this week, we're asking him to come prepared to this debate and talk specifics. >> i know you don't want to talk about wikileaks, i understand that, it's out there. there's a new tv ad, the trump campaign is using some wikileaks material, here it is. >> and they are living in their parents basement, that is a mind-set that's really affecting their politics.

>>. >> you could put half of trump's supporters into the basket of deplorables. >> do you have a problem in that how she -- it looks like she's maybe marginalized some sanders supporters, maybe marginalized some trump supporters? >> let's look about what bernie sanders said about this. she was describing a situation accurately, you look at the entire quote, she was saying young people are struggling in this economy to work and more over they're burdened by student debt. hillary clinton has a plan, biggest investment -- >> dropping a basement line usually has a derogatory -- >> she was indirectly quoting what she was hearing from young people. she was relying a conversation she had with young people. they were sometimes forced into situations like these. she has a jobs plan, a specific plan to lower the burden of student debt. to help people refinance.

we've seen none of this from drummed. this is another example of the trump campaign taken out of context, throw it on tv, rather than provide substantive policy. >> i know you don't want to answer the question. it's out there enough, it's going to be asked about tonight. can you really keep this up and not respond to any of the issues? >> i hope this comes up tonight in this regard. the department of homeland security took the unprecedented step of saying that beyond any shadow of a doubt, the russian government perpetrated this and they were dumping out these materials for the purpose of hurting hillary clinton and helping trump. the one person who has refused to acknowledge this even happened, because it was the russian government or to condemn it is trump his own running mate has said this should not be allowed and it needs to be responded to. we know he's been briefed by the intelligence community on this issue, it's time for him to do the right thing, condemn the

russians and act like a president. >> how serious are you with arizona and georgia? >> arizona's a battleground state. it could go either way. i think it's an uphill climb. >> you didn't say the same thing about georgia. >> i think that -- a few months ago, if i said arizona, utah are going to be in play, people would have thought i was crazy. >> robbie, thanks very much. i appreciate it. joining me now, the other side, is senior communications adviser to the trump campaign. >> let me start with wikileaks and the marco rubio statement where he says he's not going to acknowledge it, this is a national security threat, a foreign government that every part of the american government, not the partisan part, professional intelligence folks have identified the russians are

the culprit here. do you not feel it inappropriate to use this material when a foreign adversary of the united states is trying to muck up the election. >> senator rubio has his own campaign he's going to run. the clinton campaign doesn't want to talk about what's in those e-mails, the types -- the two-faced approach, where one thing is said in public and another thing is said in private. we're seeing the evidence of fbi collusion, doj collusion, we're seeing all these things come forward. and we're opposed to hacking. >> why doesn't trump recognize the russians are doing this? he's getting security briefings. he's been told that the russians are trying to mess with this election. why did he go out in public and deny it, blame it on some 400 pound -- >> we've been clear we oppose hacking, that's not something we

support mr. trump, it's not his job -- he's not the law enforcement -- >> is he running for president of the united states? >> yes. >> he wants to be commander in chief? is he not going to make decisions based on intelligence that he's gotten from intelligence professionals? >> i can't believe you're spending all this time. >> i'm asking you -- >> it's not an important thing -- >> we're not going to trust the intelligence he gets from professional advisers? >> why doesn't the clinton campaign want to talk about what -- anti-catholic bigotry. >> why won't your campaign acknowledge what the russians are doing? >> when law enforcement is done with their investigation, they'll put out a final report and then we'll know. >> i want to talk about the various people you're inviting to this debate. i want to start with president obama's half brother. someone he has no relationship with. jonah goldberg put up a tweet,

it's not just a dog whistle. it is a fog horn, and it was in response to somebody saying, this is essentially playing the birther card again. >> chuck, that's -- >> do you it's not even a dog whistle, it's a dog fog horn, shows bannon returning to steven bannon, no interest in attracting once gettable swing voters. >> tonight is the last chance on big national stage for voters to get a sense of who's going to take this country in the right direction. this is the chance to lay off the tax plans, national security. that's what everyone's tuned in for tonight. >> what's with all this side show business. >> people want a change in direction. >> why are you -- what is. >> when the presidents half brother even he thinks we need a change in direction, that tells you what the american public -- >> this is not meant to be some sort of weird birther play?

>> i -- chuck, you throw some random tweet, some pundit, we're here to talk about the issues that are tonight and the fact that hillary clinton is going to get put on notice for her 30 year failed record failed record as secretary of state, as senator. and the fact that she has helped make the world a more dangerous place. that's going to be on display tonight, chuck. >> let me ask you about the vote rigging stuff. all of you mike pence, kellyanne conway have all downplayed -- you have all acknowledged, no there's not a lot of vote fraud out there, but your candidate does not acknowledge it. why does the campaign say the honest things about the issues of how elections are connected in this country but the candidate doesn't? >> the rigged system has been the centerpiece of this campaign, draining the swamp, fighting the rigged system. >> i get that. >> we talk about -- >> that's different the bias with congress, with fbi doj, the

state department, the clinton foundation, this whole rigged system. >> i get that, why are you questioning the voting in this country, which there's just no proof that there is massive vote fraud in this country. there has never been. >> you're wrong? >> i am. >> the washington post had an article in 2014 that said upwards of 14% of the people here illegally voted. the pugh center had a study out saying, almost 3 million people are voting in the wrong state from which they're registered to be at. pennsylvania, there's an arm where over 700 people who are dead or shouldn't be voting were in fact voting. our whole point is that we want to see integrity at the ballot box. >> you don't think there's been integrity at the ballot box for the last 100 years? >> we want to break up -- >> do you not trust republican secretaries of state. >> state of ohio run by

republicans. state of colorado, i can go on and on. >> voter fraud is real and it exists. >> he's saying it doesn't trust republican elected officials to run a fair election. >> we have a rigged system right now, when it comes to voter earn teg ritty, we want to make sure that the right people are voting, and it's lawful for them to vote. we want everyone who's able to to be able to vote. >> let me wrap up the same thing there. there's been some questions about both virginia and colorado. you guys have put some money back into virginia. is colorado fully in play for you or not? >> are you investing actual dollars the way you are in virginia? >> in the next week, you'll see -- >> will we see -- >> i was in colorado with mr. trump yesterday, the crowds we had it was over 10,000 in grand junction, massive crowds. colorado springs, there's something happening here. real movement. you see folks who are turning out, people who want to take

their country back, who want a change in direction. the energy and excitement is there. >> are you concerned you'll have enough resources? >> yeah. >> is mr. trump going to put in more money? you guys are being outspent a good 2, 3 to 1 in some states. >> i'm not going to speak to mr. trump's checkbook. that's up to him. >> we'll be watching tonight. >> thank you, sir. >> we're going to look at how all this is playing downballot. ♪ something new has arrived. uniquely designed for the driven. introducing the first-ever infiniti qx30 crossover.

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ivanka trump may be one of her father's most effective surrogates. after a high profile role at the convention in july, she's been

limiting her campaign trail appearances to small events. at an interview with fast economy via e-mail she called herb father's remarks on the 2005 access hollywood tape clearly inappropriate and offensive. she added, i will say i can't wait until the election is over. she also ruled out a role in the trump/pence administration. today a fortune magazine's most powerful women's summit, ivanka trump went further. >> my brand was launched far before the presidential cycle commenced and will continue long afterwards. i'm incredibly proud of the work i'm doing there. i've always tried to maintain complete separation between that and the campaign. i hate the word surrogate, what does that mean? major numbers were writing that

i was vice presidential candidate. i'm saying, no, i'm a daughter. >> the election will be over after november 8th. >> he'll either win or he won't win, and i believe he'll accept the outcome either way. americans are buying more and more of everything online. and so many businesses rely on the united states postal service to get it there. because when you ship with us, your business becomes our business. that's why we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. the united states postal service. priority: you

they even want to try to rig the election at the polling booths where so many cities are corrupt and voter fraud is all too common. >> do you believe there will be widespread voter fraud? >> no, i do not believe that. >> there's voter fraud with the media, because they so poison the minds of people by writing false stories. >> donald trump's point is a larger one. you don't want him talking about the other stuff, there is a larger conspiracy. >> as you see there, trump says one thing, and kellyanne conway tries to reinterpret it another way. trump is holding firm that voter fraud is rampant, his campaign is trying to soften that tone.

>> to say elections are rigged and all these votes are stolen, that's like saying we never landed on the moon, frankly. >> i don't think that's good for our country. the problem is, it does create doubt in people's minds, and i worry about 25% of americans who may say when an election is over, it was stolen. >> by the way, john kasich's secretary of state backed it up. >> voter fraud exists, it's rare, most of the time that people try to vote fraudulently, the vote is not counted, we catch it before that actually happens. but there's no evidence. no evidence of systemic fraud, vote rigging, anything of the sort. >> despite efforts by republicans to distance themselves and the party from trump's comments, perception is

everything. donald trump's claim that democracy is broken, already broke it. hugh hewitt. the atlantic's molly voll, tom brokaw and the host of a.m. joy, joy reid. welcome all many tom, be a voice of reason here, do you feel this rhetoric and what john kasich's 25%, that we're going to have, that november 9th is going to be as toxic as november 8th. >> i think it's one of the overwhelming issues coming out of this campaign, what happens after someone is declared the victor. how you put the country back together again. if i had to pick one single issue that is overwhelming to me as a citizen, a reporter, someone who has children and grandchildren looking forward, how do you stitch the country back together again. it's never going to be kumbaya. there are issues we have to be able to work together on and have a tone in washington in

which people represent the small towns, the large cities where they get things done together by getting together and saying, these are our goals, we're going to find a way to do it, in washington, that's been missing, this campaign has only fed that in my judgment. >> i want to go to this vote rigging issue as a tactic. i feel it's backfiring on trump. it helps democrats motivate their base. >> yeah. >> while trump's sending the message, your vote doesn't count. >> he's essentially blaming african-americans and prestaging this idea that it's certain communities as he's putting it in philadelphia and other places that in his mind are stealing the election. i did find john's comments interesting. he's been one of the most proactive and aggressive secretaries of state in terms of playing keepaway with voters, in terms of being sued for attempting to deny people the opportunity to register to vote. it's ironic he would be out

there that this very argument that there's rampant fraud is the reason why he has to be more and more aggressive for people of color to vote they've been on trump's side of that argument for quite some time. >> i want to go back to the demoralization argument. i had a conversation today with a republican strategist who thinks, what is he doing, he's sending a message that your vote -- the whole system is rigged it may not matter. it's going to hurt return turnout. >> it may. i hadn't thought about that, i am holding down the grandfather demographic, i'm much more optimistic than young people. if hillary clinton wins, we're going to get together and work. john uested is sort of the center of roogs ailty with rob

portman and john kasich, i think that sensibility of center returns regardless of who wins. i do think trump's rhetoric could backfire on turnout in key states. you don't see rob portman or kelly ayotte talking about this. >> they're all sending the opposite message. they're all doing different ways of trying to say, we're not on board with that. >> they're running tactical and strategic campaigns. if there's anything we have learned, is that they're not strategic, they're just whatever flew into his head. this is all just trump trying to grab el with an outcome that he doesn't like and doesn't want to accept. and he doesn't have a filter, and he doesn't have someone giving him talking points that he guests and this is just the

pure id of donald trump. >> ivanka trump, reaction to what you heard? >> she's the most impressive member of the trump family. she has got an amazing brand, the demographic on which she does best, what i saw in that interview was amazing, cut the ropes from that burning shift. >> i thought what i heard. >> you can send a message to her brands. >> it's a strong brand. trump is what they say, whether it's eric trump running the trump companies, whether it's ivanka trump who's been involved in selling these compartment complexes they lease their name to. trump is her brands, donald trump is ruining the brand by which she earns a living.

ivanka is starting to realize the damage to the trump brands damages her own prospects of earning a living. >> do you realize it's the first time we've seen her in front of a camera since the allegations? and it took a week to get melania in front of a camera. >> your two best women surrogates, perhaps character witnesses, weren't there. >> she was running against the trump catticism today. that's not how he operates no matter what, we're going to win, we're doing well. he wanters off the landscape, yesterday he wandered off the landscape, i didn't know what he was talking about by the end. it's rigged, you have to figure it out. you have to look at philadelphia. it made no sense. there was no central theme.

it was as if he was draining himself in front of the cameras. if you listen to a trump speech and don't read breitbart, you don't understand when he throws something out there, like philadelphia -- >> that's been the case, even in the debates, when he knows he's before an audience he goes off on sid blumenthal and connecting these dots that ordinary americans have no idea what they are. >> i think the people who do understand it, this is why you can't cauterize the trump wound and limit it at him. someone like john mccain understands the future of staying in your job dependses on appeasing your bright parts readers. essentially threatening not to seat any supreme court justice for hillary clinton before he pulled it back. he -- he's bringing other republicans down the same trump campaign.

>> one thing i disagree with, if the republicans like mitch mcconnell and speaker ryan and others, and john kasich come together and say, okay, we have to deal with this new administration, that does not include this other constituency that is out there and is not going to go away. the all right crowd. they have enormous tools and social media. they're going to not fade off into the landscape it seems to me, it's been very interesting, you take the republican senators who separated themselves from donald trump after his remarks going into the -- about women, and a lot of them said, he's got to stop he's got to get away from pence, a week later, they were saying i'm a republican, they got so much heat, frankly from other social media. >> i want to continue this conversation, but i need to take a break here. you guys are coming back, still ahead, will democrats ride away

into washington this january? or is it a little bit too soon to be talking about that? we'll take a look at the democrats best chances to pick up certain senate seats. there's nothing more important than your health. or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. so if you're on medicare, consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like any standardized medicare supplement plan, you'll be able to stay with the doctor or specialist you trust... or look for someone new -- as long as they accept medicare patients. and you're not stuck in a network... because there aren't any. so why wait? call now to request your free decision guide and learn more.

how do we measure greatness in america? it's measured by what we do for our children. it's why as president i'll invest in our schools. in college that leads to opportunities... not debt. and an economy where every young american can find a job

that lets them start a family of their own. i've spent my life fighting for kids and families. i want our success to be measured by theirs. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. the possibility of a flare was almost always on my mind. thinking about what to avoid, where to go... and how to deal with my uc. to me, that was normal. until i talked to my doctor. she told me that humira helps people like me get uc under control and keep it under control when certain medications haven't worked well enough. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common,

and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. raise your expectations. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, control is possible. hours before the final presidential debate in las vegas. the only debate -- presidential debate being held in a swing state. how about that. we're 20 days until the general election. we went back in our archives to find the poll numbers before the final debate, and how they stacked up to the tally on election days. '96, our poll taken a few weeks before the final debate. clinton had a 13 point lead. he ended up winning re-election that year by 9 points.

2000, our last predebate poll, had george w. bush 6 points ahead of thal gore. '04, george w. bush was up 4 points he held on to win the popular vote by 2.5 points. obama's final margin was plus 7 when the votes were counted in november. and fine letter, all tied up going into the final debate in 2012. president obama was reeling a bit from that first debate performance against m.i.t. romney. he did emerge with a four point victory. back to the present. our last nbc news wall street journal poll had hillary clinton leading drummed by 11 points. no real correlation through the years, it's worth noting that hillary clinton has the largest lead taken before the final debate since her husband in

1996. after the break, are hillary clinton's strong numbers -- sudden strong numbers at the top of the ticket trickling down to help democrats running for senate. we'll look at that and more in a few minutes. live from las vegas right after this. more "stay" per roll.

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welcome back, polls have shown a durable lead for hillary clinton in this race. there's the potential for a democratic wave. an election like that could not only put clinton in the white house, but could turn the senate blue, and who knows. check it out, here are the nine senate seats most likely to switch parties this november. all but nevada. all but nevada are currently

held by republicans. illinois and wisconsin right now are number one and two on our list, most likely to flip. we don't have a top 10, because we don't have top senate seats that we believe are that in play. if there is a mass mobilization against trump and the republican party we think all nine of those could end up going to the democratic column or at least 7 of the nine. >> let's take a look, clinton is up five points ahead. same story in new hampshire, clinton up 5 in a two way. wbar poll taken last week, kelly ayotte is tied with her challenger in the senate race. a brand new poll is out.

finally, florida, clinton leads trump in a quinnipiac poll by four points. marco rubio who has led every single poll since june is clinging to a lead. let's talk about the odds of this wave. >> we're going to geek out here, let's start with the senate races. what's it take with a 2012 result. 51-47 clinton over trump, a four point spread wobbuld be enough? >> i thought so. how within these states -- i think at the start of the cycle, we were looking at the senate race in nevada, the way we were looking at the presidential race, this is looking good for democrats. the demographics have trump in the game at the presidential level, and they have hecht by

virtue of being a republican in this environment. >> irony to joe hecht, hasn't led in a poll private or public since he pulled his endorsement of trump. huge problem. trump voters may be punishing him. >> i think that's a problem in other states as well. in pennsylvania, if you're toomey, you're trying to win there, you need some of those traditional voters. >> let's through these. illinois -- >> wisconsin, something is happening in wisconsin. part of me thinks, russ feingold -- a reminder that oh, yeah, he was a long term incumbent too feingold is his own entity, there was that new poll out today that had him up comfortably. if hillary clinton is winning the state by 7, 8 points, i still think johnson -- >> now the two races that have become mirror images of each other in some ways.

it's missouri and nevada. it features evan bayh. both are struggling. they are struggling under the same problem. >> you say by democrat of indiana, the residency issue, embarrassing questions he hasn't been able to answer. there's two examples in indiana, no problem, in the tea party, lugar in 12, the republican primary, evan bye it wasn't supposed to be this close. i can see it being a problem. >> missouri to me, that feels almost a better shot right now for democrats than nevada. that something happened there this is not trump relates at all. >> it's more competitive there. i saw a poll that put it at 5 in missouri. it was a state in '08. democrats good year they can get

close out there, i think blunt. washington is the potomac thing. >> what does the national spread have to be for clinton, georgia and arizona to come -- to turn blue. >> i'm starting to wonder if arizona and georgia are a little different. if that number is lower for arizona than georgia. >> we consider arizona a battleground state. >> it's the large mormon population. look what's happening in utah, i think it's bleeding over into arizona. >> she can win the state with 44, 45. georgia, she still needs 48 or 45. >> georgia, you're up at 6, 7 points nationally. >> we could have gone on for another three hours on this one. good stuff, good to see you. we're just three hours from the start of tonight's third and final debate, the oath one being held in an actual battleground state. the all-star panel comes back with their expectations. more from las vegas right after this.

welcome back, tonight i'm obsessed with one of the great ironies of this election, it involves tonight's debate and two guys who could do without each other, donald trump and paul ryan. initially ryan had little use for trump and it wasn't clear he would support him. when he did endorse, it was with the enthusiasm of a mouse having to cross the path of a cat. finally, ryan more or less told his fellow republican house

members, forget trump, do what you need to do to win. paul ryan shouldn't care about tonight's debate, except he better care and he better care a lot. until recently, the gop's house majority seemed secure. now that the floorboards have begun to creek a little bit and maybe even snap under trump, that majority could be in jeopardy, depending on tonight. if donald trump goes belly up tonight, the republican majority in the house could go belly up with him. if there's no majority, good-bye paul ryan speakership. if donald trump does poorly tonight, paul ryan could lose his job. here we are, paul ryan never wanted to support trump, did so under duress, dumped him when he could. and whose own presidential ambitions would benefit from a thump thumping. he has no choice but to pull up a chair and root for trump

tonight. whoever said politics makes strange bed fellows must have been thinking of trump and ryan. safety doesn't come in a box. it's not a banner that goes on a wall. it's not something you do now and then. or when it's convenient. it's using state-of-the-art simulators to better prepare for any situation. it's giving offshore teams onshore support. and it's empowering anyone to stop a job if something doesn't seem right. at bp, safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.

even he thinks we need a change in direction. that tells you. >> this is not meant to be some sort of weird birther play. >> that's one thing we can expect. the trump campaign has invited president obama's half brother to the debate. okay. what other surprises can we expect? that brings us to the panel. i'll start with you.

and get your take on a point i made earlier which is, nobody needs donald trump to do better than paul ryan and that has to chap his you know what. >> the down ticket needs him to be presidential. long ago when i worked for richard nixon, it took me six years of reading. a great column through "time" magazine. you have to demonstrate a temperament when was to stand silent and when to jut out your jaw. donald trump needs rally the republicans to him. he may want to set up project veritas. he may want to bring up the usa today story about the foundation but mostly, he has to stay calm and presidential and he'll lift the ticket. >> my question, and he didn't mention a single issue. you could argue that so far the only decent 20 minutes he's in the debate is when he stuck to it her in trade. >> i think he was right that it is mainbly temperament and bits

character for the voters that trump increasingly seem to be losing. that's the real danger. i think he was exactly right that republicans are getting so demoralized by this drum beat of he's losing, he's losing. it threatens to kill the turnout and to make the bottom fall out in house and senate races. there's a band wagon. nobody wants to be with a loser. >> we put this on our polls, tom. it was interesting to me to note the 96 pre debate, the last pre debate poll. it was 13 points for bill clinton. we're here, it is 11. there has always been something about the spread of '96 that feels familiar with this race. i remember in that debate, bob dole tried to throw a few hey makers. and it was baked in. is this race baked or not? >> well, you know, like ufos, we

never know what will happen. setting the two candidates aside and how they've conducted their campaigns, it is a big dangerous world out there. we don't know the final results of mosul, for example. what will happen economically. what kind of calamity could fall and how they respond to all that. there is no comparing these two candidates than candidates who were running in '96. they were different kinds of characters. >> one had the same last name. >> but not nearly as nimble as her husband was at the time. so i think an interesting question tonight is about hillary clinton. does she go out there and try to be the grand dame? i'm here to repair the country. or does she go after him on specific issues? i don't know. i think that will be as interesting as anything. >> i'm with you. i don't know the right answer. how tough should she get and how much does she ignore him? >> you start to see in clinton

world a more aggressive attitude toward what the goal is. i think the last debate, stand pat. people are already voting. you don't need to be aggressive. now you're seeing the democrats get a lot more aggressive down ticket. i sfenlt morning watching local tv. the ads are full of people, trying like heck to try on win and i think hillary clinton has the opportunity to lash donald trump to those down ticket candidates in a way that could be bigger. it's a big deal. and voter registration closed yesterday in the state of nevada. you now have people already voting. the opportunity for donald trump to inspire new voters is done. but people are already voting. the performance has instantaneous results for positive or negative for these candidates. >> i watched today. nicole wallace, a wonderful interview with a group of ohio women who are millennials, mothers with children. and they're not wild for hillary. that's an issue for her. so i think one of the things she

can do is to expand her pace. for example, there are a lot of government regulations that no one in this country likes and she has never, ever taken on the issue of government regs. she has offered free college education to families with people who make $125,000 income but at the end, they don't give anything back to their country. why couldn't she say at the end, you'll would have the years of public service that you owe your country. because we're sending less than 1% of our population to war. that kind of thing. >> i apologize. that clock is ticking. i have to go. it's very, molly, joy. all up beat. live from las vegas after this.

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that's all for tonight. keep it here on msnbc for full coverage leading up to our live broadcast of the final presidential debate. chris hayes picks things up right now. >> good evening from the campus of beautiful university of nevada, las vegas. yes, nevada. host of the third and final presidential debate of 2016 which kicks off here on msnbc just three hours from now. i'm chris hayes. hillary clinton's campaign said it expects a