>> mtp daily starts right now. if it is monday, donald trump is down in most polls and he still insists he is winning. >> we are winning this race. i believe we are winning. >> revving up down ballot races. >> nasty women have really had it with guys like this. >> if this is the year for the libertarian ticket to rise, will it ever? this is mtp daily and it starts

right now. in washington, tonight for my friend, chuck todd and welcome with 15 days to go. donald trump and the republican party are facing a bleak reality and they are behind in nearly every national poll and struggling in most battle ground states. the blame game has in some cases begun. then there is trump's version of things today. >> just in case you haven't heard, we are winning. we're winning. we're winning. >> i actually think we are winning. we are winning this race. i believe we are winning. >> trump tweeting we are winning and the press is refusing to report it. don't let it fool you. get out and vote. it is a tale of two realities. here's kellyanne conway just yesterday. >> where do you see this race right now? do you acknowledge you are

behind? >> we are behind. donald trump is going to take the case tredirectly to the peo. >> trump is also rejecting the polling reality of the race. here's donald trump with one of the florida rallies that wrapped up a short time ago. >> the system is corrupt and i have been saying it's rigged. i have been saying for a long time. system is rigged. you see the polls where they are polling democrats. how is trump doing? they are polling democrats. >> trump took this to his favorite megaphone, twitter. major phones that are dems are making up phony polls to suppress the trump vote. we are going to win. that major story doesn't exist. these are the same pollsters that trump plays in the primary every chance he got. great news on leading in the polls. the polls have been consistently great. the polls have been amazing.

these are real. the gop nomination polls have me as number one. big lead. so many great polls. that's just some of it. and then the battle ground map. this was taken from the strategy memo pushed out by the campaign. it's a rosy scenario if we have ever seen one. they call states like virginia, pennsylvania, and michigan toss ups even though clinton has a commanding lead. they seem to have a math problem and figure trump can win iowa, maine, florida, nevada, north carolina. they say that would bring him to 266 electoral votes and put aside the long odds of that happening, the sweep that is not enough for trump to win, but look at the tally of the electoral votes. those states tonight add up to 266. they add up to 269 and the states they have in clinton's

column add up to 197. we couldn't figure out how they arrived at the tallies. we asked them and they have not responded. it's hard to plot a path to the path to 270 if your numbers don't add up. >> what's your point? is donald trump winning the race? >> he is behind, but he is reasonably close in a lot of states which is kellyanne's point. >> why not just acknowledge we are behind and we need everyone to vote. >> that isn't him. i wrote it down. it was the words that come to my mind. unconventional, direct, and grievances. those things are all good. there are grovances and frustrations.

they have a real grievance. this is specifically about the trump campaign they are making. the democrats and the governor of that state. if the governor gave money with his super pac to this candidate who was married to an fbi official and had no relationship to the e-mail probe and months later after this candidate lost, that person, her husband would have involvement in the investigation and the e-mail probe. just to put up on the screen, here's what the campaign said specifically from it. he was not this a position to influence the investigation until after the campaign concluded. the governor has no connection to the issue. he supported it because she shared his vision for virginia and any insinuation otherwise is

ridiculous at best and reckless at worst. ever since they gave the money, they had a role in the investigation that wasn't already at the place. >> i don't know. i know what i read and imagine you. that's your job. i'm not going to make acquisitions about substance. i'm not going to do it. you are asking me about the ml. and all the issues that really count. all the substance that would be impressed by it. the same speech at gettysburg and he threatened to sue the women accused of groping them and touch touching them. >> i disagree. >> i want this race to be

about -- elizabeth warren wants to vet hillary clinton's cabinet members. we now know how they really feel about the uber left. they have a lot of influence on them. right versus left and conservative versus lib roll. who has the best player to create jobs. you know working and donald trump may have been the best person suited to do this. when he talks the dems are rigging the polling for clinton. and we agree as you said to me that the real clear politics average the garbage politics by six points. and again, i'm looking at ohio and florida and iowa and new

mexico. you know it as well. colorado is not within the margin. >> let's see where we are in a week or so. these count. donald trump said he is doing better with women than men. do you agree? >> i never have seen numbers that support that. >> why does donald trump say this stuff? >> to ask this question and the rule books has been since day one. he violated the rule book from day one. >> in the sense of a lot of people who feel them and i'm part of the establishments. if you were part of the establishments in w this cycle, bernie and donald and right and left, there is distrust about washington and networks and the press and the media.

>> on that topic, tim kaine has not been asked about hillary clinton and the critical comments about catholics in the country. >> he makes that point and he has been asked about that multiple times. they have to be true. >> the larger point siwill be true to the fact. they don't have a good use for people with religious convictions. we have seen that time and time again. >> you are buying that? i'm not buying it. >> that's what she is saying right now. >> a lot of progressives out here organize religion and not just wikileaks, but generally. you see it time and time again. >> what is donald trump's path to 270? >> i can tell you a couple hours ago he came out with the top

campaign operative. you know what it is. map it out. it's florida -- it's a denominator. florida and ohio and iowa and colorado. if the states are truly -- >> right now perhaps not in play. fair enough. here's kellyanne conway just moments ago with my colleague. >> yesterday you on "meet the press" acknowledged that we are behind and donald trump this morning put this tweet out and said we are winning. the press is refusing to report it. which is it? >> and then donald trump said we are a few points behind. we agree on two things. in a couple of polls we are behind and we will win on election day. you need to be more fair when i talk to chuck todd, he asked me a question and i said we are behind. she spent $56 million in

negative ads just in september and she has tremendous advantages. the former president is the sitting president. she has to give the full context of what we are behind with. >> janet johnson is a reporter with "the washington post" back from the trail. citizenship under bush 43. a familiar face here. the editor at "the washington post." nice to see all of you. i appreciate you being here. you heard my conversation with the governor right now. that's not true what they are saying. why can't donald trump stick to the facts? >> let's be honest. this is a sinking ship. trump needs to energize his base and needs to energize the donors by an e-mail from one of the

super pacs making reference to a couple of polls, the l.a. times and they have him ahead with the polls that are questionable. publicly he wants to say i'm stealing the race, but today in an interview with a snagz north carolina where he said that i think we are behind. >> he said in his public conversation, we are behind a little bit and he said we are way up and winning big. doesn't that under cut the message from gettysburg? you were with him this weekend and no republican as gone since bush in 2004. his big message since you launched the campaign is he is a winner and wins at everything he

does. and any time he has been in a situation where he may not win at something. he sets up an out for himself and a way to explain away what's happening. >> what is striking me is the rigged phenomenon took off. that was the story line for the course of the last week and you have the sense of guys, we can't tell it is rigged. we are winning and we are on the way and taking over. what is your assessment of reality. >> he has been saying rigged for more than the last week. he has been saying rigged election and you can trace it back to august. i am going to say something unusual here. something nice about donald trump. to losing campaign and terry was

out there with the democratic nomination he blames the polls and the media and the rigged election. that's the part that is different. >> there is a frustration and she accusing the women. let me play this for a moment over the weekend. this is what man yelled at his running mate, mike pence.

take a look. >> he said donald trump to stick to the issues and he will beat hillary. i'm tired of the crap right now. a lot of americans think we are headed in the wrong direction. >> if donald trump were not donald trump. i think they are losing and somebody else will be beating hillary clinton with everything coming out. and donald trump is from the beginning hasn't been talking about the passions. the concern about blaming

immigration and that helps that's election with the anger and does this guy really think there is a race being fought? >> every rally i find trump supporters who say what that man said to mike pence. people are really frustrated that he had things set up for him and it didn't work. >> they say they are always like i'm still confident he is going to win, but can he stay on the issues and it will be so easy. >> i hear stay off twitter time and time again.

one rally we were at, he said my staff told me not to do this and told me to talk about jobs. he doesn't always have that level of control. >> you can see the ticking in his head as he tries to stay with it. we will talk about hillary clinton's challenges as well. breaking news. the associated press reports that the obama administration confirms that insurance premiums will go up sharply next year under president barack obama's health care law. this is what donald trump himself were talking about. many will be down to one insurer. we will have more on that coming up. that is something that will affect a lot of people that are frustrated with president obama and his administration and with the democrats in general. getting out the vote.

what we know about who is casting ballots in the biggest battle grounds. the two very different strategies playing out on the campaign trail. it could have been the year of the libertarian. what went wrong? gary johnson joins me this hour. stay with us. you are watching "mtp daily" ng ] have fun with your replaced windows. ruaway! [ grunts ] leave him!eave him! [ muc contues ] brk and mortar, what?! [ c continues ] [ tires scech ] [ laughs [ doorbell rings ] en you bundlhome and auto insurance withrogressive, you get mo an a b discount. at's what you get r bundling home and auto! jamie! you get eaky-good covera. thanks. we're gonna live forever!

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so it's important for me to respond as quickly as possible and get the power back on. it's an amazing feeling turning those lights back on. be informed about outages in your area. sign up for outage alerts at pge.com/outagealerts. together, we're building a better california. . it is two weeks and one day until the election, but 6.5 million votes have been cast nationwide, the early numbers using data from target smart. here's how it breaks down. florida leads the way with 1.1 million votes cast to date in this election. in person started today.

democrats do better in the early in person voting than in the mail in, but it's worth noting that 100,000 people signed up last week and we will look at which candidates will get lifelines from the top of the ticket. is it too little too late? keep it here.

you have to get out and vote. that includes helping me reelect republicans all over the place. i hope they help me too. be nice if they help us too. >> we have a lot of reasons to vote. you have great candidates. i hope you will also make sure people know what is at stake in the governor's race and in sending these two extraordinary women to the house. >> we thought this was a good contrast.

hillary clinton for down ballot democrats and trump's pitch on the ballot with him is obviously more subtle. when it comes to the fight to control congress, clinton and trump were running different races. clinton is making more explicit pitches these days appearing with new hampshire and bringing along the progressive superstar senator elizabeth warren from neighboring massachusetts. it is a stark contrast with kelly ayotte who dropped support for her nominee entirely. in october donald trump has done 28 rallies with senate races and not a single candidate appeared with him on stage. kelly o'donnell is here with us. good to get the band back together. for tv ads, democrats are outspending republicans by $18 million. how are the republicans trying to combat that gigantic

disadvantage? >> that is being looking at key states in these remaining weeks where they preserved the time. part of that is republicans are sounding the alarm trying to get donors to chip in to even that out. what they are trying to do in places like pennsylvania where democrats are overwhelmingly out spending republicans and lock in a race where there is a strong incumbent. that opened up space for her to turn resources and the party to do that. the other thing i thought was notable, she has been advertising for her own candidacy. much less of that from donald trump. what people are saying is that makes it harder for candidates as well. that message and anti-clinton message would be hammered away and that is left to the candidate to fight on their. trump was loose and casual about

his endorsement that came back to him. >> you are right and what is striking is house races right now. this is not all about television ads. this was a striking number we read. 42 cities in 17 states in the month of october alone. is he able to make up the difference and strategists say if we are back to the numbers from 2012, we lose 13 seats, we will be satisfied. by going to all of the cities. you get to be a part of the local stations. that helps. it helps the candidates. it's all they can do. they are not getting help from the top of the ticket and they are getting a lot of wins in their face from the top of the ticket. it's a challenge and trump runs against the establishment and

the party. there is not much help there. >> from republicans and democrats, the campaign manager as you know well, hillary clinton communicated they are spending $6 million in key states like florida, pennsylvania and the others. >> indiana. >> is that enough money to make a real difference? what they are trying to do is turn it into not just a win, but a way. >> the money is significant. don't get me wrong. look at what she is doing. every time she is out on the stump for the past five days, her speech talks off talking about the down ballot race. talking about katie mcginty. the optics are powerful. and then you have president obama who has dozens of ads. >> the races he will weigh in on by november 8th.

let's be clear. this is not a president who had the close relationships for all eight years. he is all in. >> that makes it so interesting. think about 2014. when a lot of democrats didn't want him campaigning for them. the thinking was in the democratic circles. that was a real miscalculation and a missed opportunity. of course now president obama's approval ratings are above 50%. they see him as an asset. he is hammering the race and you heard him say what the heck and having a lot of fun with his name. the significance is he is getting engaged. he had thorny relationships and a very different feeling. he had ads that have not debuted to help in addition phone and radio type messages that they can use for the races and there are tv ads waiting to go.

>> what was striking? nevada is in a sentence, president obama synthesized this race by saying heck no and what the heck. those were the rallying crying. nice to see you and good luck tonight. i know have a special event. the future of the third party. i will talk to gary johnston about the libertarian movement. ay, oucustomers a 21-year-old e

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a third of people poled are open to a third party candidate from democratic leaning states. bill wells from massachusetts made it on the ballot in all 50 states. "meet the press" in june, gary johnson said his adopted party philosophy aligned with the average american voter and they didn't know it yet. >> you believe the great middle of the country is libertarian. and most people i think recognize that our military interventions for the most part of having the unintended consequence of making things worse, not better.

he is falling in the polls since. high profile things didn't help. they seem to have the best chance to win electoral votes is evan mcmullan and not gary johnson. it long made and joining me now is the presidential nominee. >> this was the most favorable path. and since 1992. what happened? >> it still is. i'm spending a dollar.

>> even if this is from the "huffington post." it is undecided and your unfavorable numbers started going up. the average politic numbers show in the last two months your poll numbers went from like 9% to 6% from august to october. obviously you had more air time. people got to know you better and they haven't turned to you. >> the glass is half full. where is the voice for being fiscally conservative and free shade. >> are they not responding to you? >> i don't think they are given the time they had. the presidential debates. not to be bhiny about this and he was allowed into the presidential debates. he was polling higher and

dropped out and he was polling lower and allowed into the debat debates. bush and clinton both thought it was too their advantage. >> if they couldn't make it in their cycle, with the disapproval of these two party nominees, when will it be the moment for the libertarian party. >> you can say it is right now. this is what i think will be overwhelmingly successful. giving a voice that is not out there and if he had the money, hillary is spending $20 for every poll vote they are getting.

we are at $1. >> we don't have the money and not the platform. what do you say to the voters about why voting for a johnson wells ticket is not a wasted vote. are are because it is an honorable alternative that voting your conscious is the way you are going to change things. lesser of two evils. these two are very, very unfavorable. vote your conscious. that's how things will change. i really think this will be a steppingstone in the future for the libertarians. i think trump is toast. give voters an alternative and hillary clinton will grow government and continue to militarily intervene. she says one thing to wall street and another to main street. >> you call them authoritarian. are they equally bad? >> in my view, they are. trump doesn't seem to have a

compass and hillary's compass and government is the answer to everything. neither wants to address the entitlemen entitlements. >> donald trump is uniquely bad as a candidate. >> i will take on the hillary side of this. she is going to grow government. she is not going to address the entitlements. she will do nothing when it comes to social security. these are not options. we are headed to a fiscal cliff and no one is talking about smaller government. >> he spoke to her about targeting trump supporters. the sort of disillusioned republican. you are also shooting for sanders supporters. can you capture both of those given the chasm that exists and the views of some of these people? >> young people are getting screwed in this equation.

i will get my retirement and my health care and you have to pay for it. it probably won't be around or there for you. we want to you fight. >> accept your positions on spending and taxes. that's like the basis of his campaign. >> i am guessing that that's not the case. i have been guessing that young people care about equal opportunity. by the way, young people when it comes to president obama's health care, young healthy people -- >> do you have an alternative? >> free market and bringing competition to health care. i don't think we are going to repeal obamacare, but there would be suggestions to bring a lot more computation to health care and advertised pricing and outcomes and savings accounts. a lot of things can be done to raise the quality of health care and drop the cost.

>> let me ask you a quick question. donald trump said election results are rigged. do you believe this election is rigged? >> no. not from the standpoint of 50 states colewding with one another to twist the vote. no. that's not happening. >> you said you would pardon edward snowden. your position on wikileaks. do you think it's fair or foul for the interest that it is garnering? >> they are releasing information and that's a good thing. transparency is a good thing. >> he was hacked by the russians as officials were hacked. >> i think it would be naive and i'm not receiving intelligence briefings as something i wish i could partake in. i am willing to bet we are engaged in the war and we are winning the war and i'm talking about the cyber war. it's not acceptable to hack into this at all. >> there by it is good.

>> we get to see what has been released. edward snowden. to my knowledge, no one was hurt as a result of information that was released. he didn't release the information. he left it to major outlets to do that. you give it to major outlets. recognizing that he might put people in harm's way if he did that. that's my understanding of the issue. >> gary johnson, good to see you. still ahead, how the wikileaks we were talking about is straining hillary clinton's relationship with the left. you are watching "mtp daily" stay here. withy moderate to seve ohn's disease,... ...i was always searchinfor ways to manage my sympto. i thought i had it covered. th i rlizemanaging was all i s doing. when i finally td my doctor, he sawho have tried otherle medications,...

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>> if you embrace a trade deal, you deepen people's skepticism about trade in general. >> if you guys are elected, will you pursue an asian trade agreement even though it's not the tpp? >> hillary and i have not talked about that directly, but we are not against trade. >> trade is not all bad. tim kaine there with chuck yesterday leaving the door open to a clinton pedestrian pushing

an asian trade deal and opening her up to criticism on the left. our panel is here. nice to see you guys again. let me talk to you about this.y, if i can. so hillary clinton can't shake this trade issue. right now there's criticism she changed her position on tpp for fl political expediency. is there any reason to believe that as president, if elected, that anyone will believe what she has to say on trade? >> i think trade is the flip-floppy issue that's really most difficult for secretary clinton, because we know what she thinks in her heart because she told us. she told us that the tpp was the gold standard and now, all of a sudden, and it's hard to explain it as anything other than political pressure, she's changed her mind. there's economic reasons for tpp, and as she well knows as secretary of state, there are geopolitical reasons to want to have tpp.

which is why i think that door is left open. there is also this reality that she's dealing, which is a very energized, riled up, left part of the democratic party that is not going to stand for it if a clinton white house starts to do things that are not in their -- not consistent with their world view. >> and this is where donald trump's folks and the sanders' folks meet in their anti-trade position. bernie sanders came out against tpp. he's obviously ready to move forward now. there's now reporting today, talking about his plan to try to take the message that propelled him this far further in what's presumed to be a clinton administration. he said, we won 22 states and 46% of the pledged delegates. 13.4 million votes and a majority of the younger people. the future of the country. that gives me a lot of leverage, leverage that i intend to use. how does hillary clinton deal

with the risk of gridlock, when she has bernie sanders making this argument at this time? >> she's going to have a huge problem. remember that she included a lot of his positions and his views in the democratic platform. i think on tpp, i think that interview is very revealing, because he went on to say that they're willing to renegotiate or make some changes. so i wouldn't be surprised if president clinton would end up supporting tpp or some form of tpp. look, we know during the primary, progressives don't like hillary clinton. but, obviously, they're going to vote for her in the election. but, i think she's going to have a problem, as president, if she tries to negotiate, and she's already, apparently, from reports, reaching o out to republicans, if she tries to reach some consensus with republicans in congress, she's going to have a lot of pressure from the left. and if she gives in on anything, i think she's going to have it from the left. >> jenna, this goes right to the heart of what donald trump's been saying.

trade has been, as much as immigration and others, one of his signature issues through the course of this campaign. the argument being, how can he trust hillary clinton on this topic right now? and he has riled up his supporters with his opposition to trade, with the insistence, hey, that's why the jobs have been sucked out of this country like a vacuum. >> exactly. we were up in pennsylvania for a rally right after one of the debates and there were union members on either side of the street, pro-clinton union members on one side, and pro-trump on the other. and they were shouting things back and forth at each other. and the trump supporters were saying, bill clinton signed nafta. and that's really kind of been this rallying cry against hillary clinton. >> on the debate stage all three times. >> exactly. occasionally i will find former bernie sanders supporters who are now supporting trump. and the number one reason they give for why they're doing that is trade. >> let me ask quickly, if i can, this headline about the obamacare right now. the white house, the ap reporting that premiums will go up sharply in the new year, as

it were. alfonzo, this gets right to the heart of the republican dagger at democrats. can trump capitalize in two weeks? >> no. because he's donald trump. sadly, obamacare's a disaster. i think president obama is now accepting that premiums are going to go up for most americans. and i think, again, if we had another candidate, this would be a huge issue that would help the republican candidate immensely. >> nonetheless, ruth, she's going to face this question a lot over the course of the next several days. she'll focus on a lot of things, but how do they combat that argument that obamacare is flawed and she's not the candidate to fix it? >> i think those are two different questions. she's going to say, look, obamacare has extended coverage to millions of people who would not have otherwise had coverage. obamacare had -- i'm not going to accept your view of it as a disaster. obamacare has helped contributed to a slowing of the cost of health care costs overall. premiums are going up, but

premiums are not going up -- i haven't seen this latest report -- as much as had been predicted by cbo at the passage of obamacare. so reports of disaster are greatly exaggerated. >> so she's going to say, we need to stick with what we have and make the fix, not start from scratch. nice to see you guys. after the break, a surprisingly big question voters still have about hillary clinton. stay tuned. ♪ somethinnew has arrived. ♪

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so in case you missed it, saturday night has had a lot of

fun spoofing the presidential debates this year, and this weekend, for "snl," was no exception. >> donald, donald, listen, i'm trying to help you, buddy, so repeat after me. i, donald trump -- >> i, the best ever, donald trump -- >> promise to accept -- >> promise to accept -- >> the results of this election -- >> the results of this election, any win. got your loser trademark. >> chris, what he has just said is horrifying. and that's why americans have an important decision to make. between the two of us, who do you trust to be your president? the republican or donald trump? >> so here's the thing, it's possible that kate mckinnon's republican or donald trump joke right there confused plenty of folks. check this out. according to google trends, these are the top questions that people in america are googling about, hillary clinton, in the last day. number one, is hillary republican? number five, what party is

hillary clinton. so, folks, just to be clear, if case you missed it, hillary clinton is the democrat in this case. republican, the republican. saturd"saturday night live," a . ari melber picks up our coverage right now. >> good evening to you. i'm ari melber with our live election coverage for this monday, october 24th. the election is now just two weeks from tomorrow. and that doesn't leave much time for donald trump to make up his deficit in the polls. though trump may not actually know it, this afternoon, he told florida voters he's doing well in those polls. >> just in case you haven't heard, we're winning. not only florida, but we're going to win the whole thing. what we have is we have a movement like they've never seen before. >> he also tweeted about winning, but when pressed in a separate interview with a north carolina radio station this morning, trump did acknowledge the external reality that this is now an uphill battle. >> i guess i'm swa behind in the