hillary clinton. so, folks, just to be clear, if case you missed it, hillary clinton is the democrat in this case. republican, the republican. saturd"saturday night live," a . ari melber picks up our coverage right now. >> good evening to you. i'm ari melber with our live election coverage for this monday, october 24th. the election is now just two weeks from tomorrow. and that doesn't leave much time for donald trump to make up his deficit in the polls. though trump may not actually know it, this afternoon, he told florida voters he's doing well in those polls. >> just in case you haven't heard, we're winning. not only florida, but we're going to win the whole thing. what we have is we have a movement like they've never seen before. >> he also tweeted about winning, but when pressed in a separate interview with a north carolina radio station this morning, trump did acknowledge the external reality that this is now an uphill battle. >> i guess i'm swa behind in the polls. but not by much.

i mean, in your state, i'm one point, two points, and even in three polls. one, point, two points, and even. >> he used the word "somewhat," which may depend on who is judging. trump is now in a new all-time low in that abc poll. he trails clinton by 12 points. meanwhile, clinton focusing on the down-ballot elections and got a boost from senator elizabeth warren who went right after trump. >> he thinks that because he has money, that he can call women "fat pigs" and "bimbos." he thinks because he is a celebrity, that he can rate women's bodies from one to ten. well, i've got news for you, donald trump! women have had it with guys like you. and nasty women have really had it with guys like you! now, later this week, hillary clinton will get another lift from a big-name supporter.

she's going to go to north carolina and appear with first lady michelle obama. nbc's katy tur is in tampa, florida, where his second rally of the day will be held next hour. katy, you have been on this road with donald trump for a long time. we just showed some of the democratic pushback. what is his answer in response out there on the trail today? >> reporter: so far, he's boisterous on the trail today, ari melber. he is talking about how he is going to win. he believes the polls are not only undersampling his support, but also rigged against him, saying that the media is out to against him, as well. this is the same thing we've been hearing day in and day out in and out now for a few weeks. today, his language a little bit more pointed. he talked about how the media is entitled, condescending, and even contemptuous of the people who don't share their elitist views. he's trying to create an atmosphere where the people who go to his rallies are not being

represented by the national media, are not being represented by their national politicians. and not only that, but they're being frowned upon by these people. their views aren't correct. but they believe in donald trump and donald trump believes in him. that's what he's trying to underscore, in order to rally support, so much so, that it's -- that they hope it's able to counteract hillary clinton's support. the issue is that there are a lot of folks out there that don't see that happening at the moment. he's down in swing states, he's down in even states that have normally been republican strongholds, where he's at least in close races there. places like utah, arizona, georgia, all toss-ups. these are states that usually republicans win. they're states that donald trump needs to win, along with north carolina, florida, ohio, and pennsylvania. there's a bit of a disconnect, also, within the campaign right now. donald trump admitting today he is a little bit behind as you mentioned before.

kellyanne conway, his campaign manager, admitting yesterday that they are a little bit behind. today she even tweeted donald trump saying that he admitted that he was behind. then she goes on msnbc a little bit later and says, no, her words were being taken out of context. they're behind when it comes to funding. they're behind when it comes to tv spending. and they're behind in some of the polls, but she was saying, what donald trump has been saying out on stage today, which is is that he's being undersampled. so far, donald trump, though, not offering any real concrete evidence of anything being rigged against him. ari? >> all right. katy tur in the eye of the storm in tampa. thank you very much. we're going to do some sampling of our own and get a trump perspective here from matt schlapp, chairman of the american conservative union and unofficial surrogate for donald trump. good day so you. >> so glad to be with you. >> glad to have you. you look at all of this conversation around the polling and whether it's right, around the election and whether it's fair. when you look at what donald

trump needs to do over the next two weeks, would you agree that there is not a possibility of a national rigging of the election for in-person voter fraud and he should focus on why people should vote for him? >> yeah, absolutely, he should focus on why people should vote for him. is there voter fraud across the country? of course, there is. the question is always, how close is the election and how much fraud is there? but i think when it comes to this question of, is it rigged? you know, you look at these polls. i've seen this on tv in story after story. they say, well, donald trump is down 12 points. well, there's only one point that shows donald trump down 12 points. it came in over the weekend, this abs news poll. but cnn just did a poll that was released today that shows the race at five points. the real clear politics average shows it at about five or fix points. . and the most recent poll has hill tied. so we spend a lot of time talking about polls and i think it would do the voters a lot of good to start talking about the issues that faces us, the news we got out today that the

administration admits that there's going to be double-digit increases in obamacare premiums. i mean, we have some serious issues as a nation, and that's what we really ought to be focusing on. >> well, to your point, let me hit a couple things there. >> sure. >> we have an image of the multiple polls, as you say. there is a range. we'll put it up on the screen. you have clinton up 7 in the fox poll, 11 there in cbs. but, yes, with tighter in the abc poll at 4. nbc, up 10. that's big. cnn, you mentioned, at 5. we're certainly keeping an eye on all of the data with objectivity in mind. as for the other question you posed, though, to be clear. you said, well, how much voter fraud is there? the answer is known. the answer is very little and not enough to swing a national election in a billion ballots cast, i'm sure you know the loyola study, 31 incidents of impersonation found -- >> no. >> but don't take one study's word for it. you can respond to this. i'll show you a couple of the headlines from state and local republican officials coming out

against your candidate and saying, this is not true, this is not possible. moreover, this is irresponsible, matt. >> no, i disagree. look, i spent 34 days in the florida recount. i saw ballots in one county counted different ways in the three times they were counted. what happens with voter fraud is if an election is very close, it can come down to the subjecttivity of the people involved with counting those ballots. and the fact is, is this. what i think people are worried about across the country is that when the race itself is by some people being skewed in how it's being reported, they worry about what could happen if this race is close. so what i would encourage everyone to do is, yes, we have great election officials across this country. no, i don't think there's anybody who's in power to steal an election from somebody. i do think that's irresponsible, to talk about, but are there incidents of people who vote illegally? thousands and thousands and thousands? i did research over the weekend and i'm not even a lawyer or a very good researcher, and you

could find the cases in all 50 states where people vote illegally. so i think what we want to encourage people to do is, everyone should vote across this country, be you liberal or conservative, and we ought to make sure it's fair. and we ought to make sure that the coverage of this election is reflective of the facts on the ground. and i think that's where a lot of voters are skconcerned. they just don't see the race being covered in a fair way. you have donald trump's controversies being covereded a nauseam, yet you have very substantial charges against hillary clinton, these are serious issues. let's cover them. >> matt, i know you've got to stick up for your candidate here -- >> no, no, let's just cover the facts. >> sure, let's cover the facts. you do understand why, in some of these instances, the way that donald trump deals with allegations and scandal does prolong the discussion of it. i mean, let me play for you something he said today. this is new, with regard to the

11th accuser that came out over the weekend. these are his words about it. take a listen. >> you'll find out that in the years to come, these women that stood up, it's all fiction. they were made up. i don't know these women. it's not my thing to do, what they said. i don't do that. one said, he grabbed me on the arm, and she's a porn star. now, you know, this one that came out recently, he grabbed me and grabbed me on the arm. oh, i'm sure she's never been grabbed before. >> he says, i'm sure she's never been grabbed before. obviously, her profession or any other incident she's ever been involved in is not legally relevant to the accusation of whether he did this or not. if he didn't do it, he has every right to defend himself, but casting aspersions at her, as he has with several of the women, saying they're obviously liars and made this up and said he didn't know them, one was on "the apprentice" and he did know her. do you see how that prolongs the discussion? >> yes, let's just get right to it. he makes a mistake when he talks

about these episodes. and i think the media, it's too bad that when he gives a big series of speeches on all the government reforms he would like to see, we're now talking about these issues that are not central to what the american people care about. literally, today, it was announced that there'll be double-digit increases in obamacare premiums for americans across the country. let's talk about that. let's talk about the problems that we have with radical islamic terror. let's talk about the fact that 70% of americans think that this country is tonight wrong track. i think one of the reasons why people get frustrated in politics is we spend so much time talking about things that are not central, and we should talk about things that are central. and if the candidates could deserve to be blamed at times for that, as well, that's fine, as well. but let's start coffvering the issues. we've got two weeks left. let's talk about them. >> i hear you and i understand he may have contributed to that. another issue that's a real substantiative issue, he's trying to change term limits,

trying to break the back of the lobbying industrial complex. why do you think that's important? and do you think that republicans in the senate would go along with that, because as you know, they have not always voted for those kind of lobbyists bans in the past, it depends on the member. >> sure, i think one of the reasons why donald trump is not always accepted by even a lot of republicans, or some elected republicans, is that, you know, he's more of an independent guy and he's not really a creature of washington, like hillary clinton and bill clinton are, wi and he looks at washington and says, look, i think it's broken. and most americans do, as well. they think that we have to make radical change to washington and somehow we're just stuck. we're not addressing the issues of the day and we're not able to get them through the process. and he thinks it's going to take an outside voice. sometimes that outsider will have to be aggressive and perhaps a little bit rude to shake things up. i think he is smart to take this on. and i think he's with the american people, that they think our politics are somehow broken. and it's hard to see how hillary clinton, who's a function of

these politics, is the person to solve it or clean it up. >> well, i thought the lobbyist ban was one of the more interesting proposals out of that package and it's certainly one that really overlaps with things that bernie sanders, even john edwards had campaigned on before -- >> or elizabeth warren today was talking about. >> before i let you go, i want to play you karl rove, who has been known to take an aggressive reading of polls when possible, even karl rove is losing -- >> my former boss! >> all right, well, here we go, take a listen. >> well, if he plays an inside straight, he can get it, but i doubt he's going to be able to play it. he would have to not only win two states where he's either slightly ahead or behind by four, but he would have to pick up states where he's behind by at or above the national average. i don't see it happening. >> that is the resident optimist for republican party polling saying, it's not happening. your thoughts? >> karl rove does not like donald trump, doesn't prefer him, he's been a critic of him throughout this year. but the race is where it is.

is he tied? down a couple of points? i'm not sure. i think what i believe and the demographers i trust say the race is much closer than a lot of people are reporting, that it will tighten, i believe, as these weeks go on. karl's exactly right. it comes down to winning in battleground states. north carolina, where almost all the polls show it's very tight. ohio, where it shows trump has a lead. new hampshire, where it shows trump is slightly behind. you've got to win these states in order to be the president. and i think the next two weeks, and whether or not he stays on this message, will determine whether or not he gets through this path. >> all right. matt, well, you sort of have the car rearview mirror view of this. the polls are much closer than they may appear. we will find out in the coming weeks. thanks for spending type with us. >> okay, thank you. still ahead, revealing new numbers on early votes, something we can count and count out battleground states. you might be surprised by how many millions of people have already voted and what we can

tell you about what they may have chose. and big democrats looking beyond the white house, but is it over confidence time? we're also going to tell you which campaign is talking about another debate and jay-z, planning to hit the field for hillary clinton, showing it's anything but politics as usual. if you're keeping track at home, that is a reference to his album, "reasonable doubt." the more you know. stay with us. we'll be back after the break. e. e. and never get red it. are yoentirely prepared to reti? plan your nevetiring rin retid tires retire with e*tre. i'm in vests ands a vested iestor in ves i inve with e*trade, i'm in vests ands a vested iestor in ves whinstors cainstigate and invest in vests... n in vest sign up at etradcom and ge up to six hundred dollars.

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don't boo! don't boo! don't boo! somebody asked me, he said, i voted, can i boo now? i said, no, no, wait until all the votes are in. go get some more folks to vote. >> president obama in nevada there sunday, where early voting is underway, and it's early the to forget, as we count down to election day, that voting has begun, and that could be a big boost to whichever candidate is

in the lead. as of today, we can tell you, more than 6 million votes have been cast nationwide. that's our latest nbc data from target smart. and there is evidence that the campaign's voter turnout efforts in key states are working. most of those votes, 4 million of them, come from just 12 battleground states. now, the good news for clinton, democratic affiliate voters are dominating in 9 of those 12 states where h republican-affiliated voters leave in florida and pennsylvania. >> it's really difficult, because, you know, on one side, you have trump being a jerk and with all the issues that have come out of the recent and hard to sport him and it's also very difficult to support hillary because of her issues, too. you know, the e-mails, the lies. >> there are so many things that have troubled me. the way he speaks to people, the way he says "i like war," i want to bomb the blank out of

everybody. i am very, very concerned about the rhetoric coming out of his mouth. >> i want to bring in doug herman, a democratic strategist who did direct mail and field strategy for the obama campaigns in '08 and 2012. and doug, there's an old saying in hip hop, i ain't got to talk it, because i live it. that is certainly the case for you. our viewers may not see you on air all the time, but you sure have worked your way around a lot of winning democratic campaigns. so we wanted your handicapping of these numbers. what does it actually mean and not mean to see democrats taking the lead in the early vote in these states right now? >> thanks for having me on, ari. there's a couple of things that come from the lead that's happening right now in terms of the early vote and how that's breaking down. the first is that having a lead in the polls is currently a good thing to be happening, when early vote is going on. you never want to be behind, when the early voting is going on. so the clinton campaign lead in battleground states that are in

particular significant parts of the campaign and how the -- if she's going to win, are super important. places where she's getting a big boost early from latino turnout, for example, in florida, has spiked dramatically. and when you look at places like that, and you have the ability to invest the time and the organizational resources into developing and culling those votes, it's a significant advantage. i know for a fact that during the 2012 campaign in iowa, for example, a battleground state forever, it seems like, the obama campaign had a lead in the absentee voting and the early votes, and in fact, they had roughly a 60% to 40% lead in the absentee voting. they lost on election, amongst people who turned out on election day. but still won the state based on a significant lead early in the voting -- >> let's pause on that. because you're hitting really two points. one is that you can bank a big enough lead early to protect you from whatever comes later, which right now, would be helping

hillary clinton, given the lead she would presumably have if you just random sampled, but you seem to also be alluding the to the fact that there are different universes of voters. let me put on the screen some of the places where there's huge clinton leads right now that certainly couldn't be at an early vote, wouldn't be her expected margin. look at this in virginia, right? you're up 52/37. look at wisconsin, she's up over 20 points, if we count democratic-affiliated ballots, that's how we're doing the early vote. so that would suggest that even if she wins wisconsin, as might be expected, you wouldn't say she's going to win it by 20-plus points. >> she's not very likely to win it by 20-plus points. because what's happening with th these campaigns, they're targeting the supporters, going after the people that are most likely to vote for them. so having an organizational advantage, having a fund-raising advantage, having the time to invest into capturing these votes is really significant. so what they're doing is they're over-sampling and over-recruiting people who are more supportive to them.

so the people who are going to vote for donald trump, for example, are not part of the hillary clinton universe. they're not part of the targeting world. they're not people they're focusing on and giving rides to and helping to turn out to vote. they're putting their effort into people who would vote for hillary clinton. so you get a disproportionate number up-front. and hopefully in many cases and what the clinton campaign is banking on, having a big enough lead when those votes come in for trump, they can withstand that loss on election day. >> that they have an early tidal wave. it's such an unseen part in the way elections are going, at least in the last few cycles, when we see more states getting more available. let's look at the republican side. they are doing better, including int critical state of florida. here's republican-affiliated the early voting. these are votes that are already coming in, according to target smart. and the georgia, florida, and pennsylvania, rs having an edge. what does that tell you? >> well, it tells me this is

going to be a hard-fought election in these three states. and when you look at having georgia on a list that has florida and pennsylvania in it, two traditionally hard-fought battleground statesover the years, when you start adding a state like georgia to the democratic battleground list, and having democrats being competitive there, it shows you what kind of an advantage the clinton campaign has been able to build up and what kind of a lead they currently have. so when i look at numbers like that and a race like this, it says to me, this is going to be hard-fought in those three states. but i look at nine of the 12 battleground states where the clinton campaign has a significant lead in early votes and i'm comforted by that. and it gives the democratic side of the aisle a much more comforted and confident feeling heading into election day, when a lot of voters are going to be turning out to vote against them, because they've been able to come early and get the absentee vote in early. >> it's early to project out too far, but it would suggest that at least in the votes being cast right now, there's not necessarily the enthusiasm gap that was rumored for so long about hillary clinton, at least,

again, according to the initial data that we have. doug herman, thanks so much for joining us today. >> thank you, ari. next, details on the latest republican senator to un-endorse donald trump before re-endorsing him. and "the new york times" weighing in on, yes, one of the most important things we've learned this entire election cycle. what does big league mean? and does it not mean what you thought it mean? we'll explain, straight ahead. >> i, the best ever, donald trump -- >> promise to accept -- >> promise to accept -- >> the results of this election. >> the results of this election, if i win. got ya, loser. this is humira. this is humira helping anprotect myoi further d. to relieve my pain this is hulping me go . this is humira. humiraorks f madults. tarts andelps to block a specic source of infmmation contrites toto. hura h beeclinicly studied for ov 1yes.

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welcome back. we'll do a quick check of some other headlines to get you caught up. republican senator mike crapo from idaho says he will vote for donald trump, despite un-endorsing him earlier this month. in an online statement, he says he'll vote for trump to stop hillary clinton from becoming

president. he withdrew his support from trump after the 2005 tape surfaced with trump talking about groping women. and jay-z will hold a get out the vote conference for clinton in cleveland before election day. the clinton campaign focused on firing up younger voters and minority voters who may be fans of jay-z. it's all going down in ohio where there's a very, very tight race so far. and "the new york times" weighing in on a big controversy. is donald trump saying "bigly" or big league. he's been saying big league and dug up two vintage clips to support their case. >> i was billions of dollars in debt, but i fought bag and i won, big league. >> lots of countries, france, that are just ripping us, saudi arabia, you look at these deficits, that are just ripping us big league. >> it's hard to hear, because the "g" stays silent, like the

"g" in lasagna. confirmed in an e-mail that trump has been saying big league this whole time. don't you feel better knowing that. now, up ahead, donald trump and the down-ballot effect hillary clinton as well as president obama are trying to make republican candidates pay a real price for supporting donald trump. >> now, when suddenly, it's not working, and peep are saying, wow, this guy's kind of out of line, all of a sudden, these republican politicians who were okay with all this crazy stuff, up to a point, suddenly, they're all walking away. well, what took you so long?! what the heck? these goofy gls. yeah. well, we gotta hand it e-commerceo easye heed mar and nowe're getting all kinds of n customers i know. can you believe 'rtting orders from canada, irand... is one's going to new zealand. new zed? psst.

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wheyou wantv sometto protecte, at levy st of the way. ateys can you th an estate plan including wills or a living trust that grows alongith you and your family. legalzoom. but you have to the get out and vote. and that includes helping me re-elect republicans all over the place. i hope they help me, too. it would be nice if they help us too, right? >> a number of vulnerable republicans have recently started running away from donald trump, but they may need him on november 8th as much as hthey need him. they only need a net gain of five seats to do it. >> presidents can't do everything on their own. we can't elect hillary and saddle her with a congress that is do-nothing, won't even try to do something, won't even get

their own stuff passed, much less the stuff you want passed. >> as we're traveling in these last 17 days, we're going to be te emphasizing the importance of electing democrats down the ballot. >> let me just quote marco rubio. he called donald trump dangerous and he called donald trump a con artist. but he's supporting donald trump. >> and let's get right to our panel, joean walsh, and beth fouhy, and democratic strategist, jamal simmons. hey, everybody. two weeks to go. the main point starting here, joan, would be, this wasn't how it was supposed to be. and the underlying demographics and data would have suggested a year ago, it wasn't going to be this way if you had a more generic republican. >> right. and i really was glad that you picked that quote at the beginning, that trump quote at the beginning. because when he said that, i laughed out loud. >> you lol'd.

>> i did, i did. because he was like,, you know -- and then you've got to help me, you know, elect some republicans. he might as well have just said, blah, blah, blah. he looked so disheartening, you know, sure, elect republicans, they're not helping me. so you've got this civil war in the party. so you can have the worst possible effect, which is that the people who love trump don't vote down-ballot, because marco rubio has not been very loyal. and that the people who would maybe kind of like marco rubio are just so disheart tnd by the whole thing that they skip the whole thing. because we know people do tend to come out on both sides, democrat and republican, for the presidential nominee. so it could be the worst of all worlds. >> and if republicans are in trouble, jamal, there's a whole wing of the party who will not accept, this is the reason why. we're already seeing the preview of that argument. here's mike huckabee tweeting on this saying, look, if gop loses senate, it's not because candidates ran with real donald trump, but because they ran from him. no time for wimps and wusses.

and to be fair, there are plenty of democrats who say, whenever the democrats have lost ground in the congress, it's because they didn't run as proud standard-bearers of their party. trump is a complex it's of what the party actually and stands for. but what do you think of that view, that the republican party may come in here after november, even dealt serious losses, and say, we weren't trump enough? >> you're sort of darned if you do and dapprned if you don't. because if you're rob portman, do you want donald trump to say your name. he gets up and says, vote for the republicans down-ballot. he's not naming these people. if you're a voter out there, you don't actually know who he's talking about. this will be one of the things people are looking for later. does donald trump help or hurt you when you're underneath him on the ballot? and we'll have a lot of data to pick through on this. it's political science 101, really. that the top of the ticket really drives how people vote. and this sort of effort by republicans to suggest that people are going to split their tickets, they will go no, even if you don't like the guy at the top, please come and help be a

check on hillary clinton, sort of flies in the face of human behavior. you know, political scientists have been studying this for decades. and it really doesn't work that way. that's not to say, this is a very unusual year, as we all know, it could happen. i actually think the bigger problem, ari, is trump talking about the rigged election. if he's telling all of his people, most of whom are republicans, that the election is rigged and he's going to lose no matter what, what's the incentive for them to come out and vote at all? that's really going to kill these down-ballot people. >> yeah, we've talked a lot about what's wrong with it and have fact checked and it we'll continue to do that. this is a politics segment. joan, as a political matter, it is demobilizing to tell people the thing i want you to do has been pre-rigged against you and you don't have a voice. >> it's really, really interesting, because donald trump's only hope for a long time has been this he's going to turn out these so-called missing white voters. the people who have sat it out

for several elections alledgedly. some people can tell you where they are, but to the extent they exist, it's a controversy. they are non-college whites. those are the donald trump voters. but it's, a, very difficult to get these people out in the first place. they don't vote, which means they don't vote. you've got to find them and get them out. on the flip side, when african-americans mainly, but not only african-american students, young people, seniors, are having -- being disenfranchised, in states like florida, you have a movement, you have a history and you also have an infrastructure of people saying, they're trying to take your vote away from you. people died for this vote. and you have this -- a way that the narrative, and it's a true narrative in this case, that your vote is being threatened, actually causes obama voters and the hope is, clinton voters, to search the polls anyway. so they took away a lot of your early polling places in north carolina. please go vote anyway. stand on those long lines. >> joan, i think there are some missing white voters out there, that trump would be to those

white voters what barack obama was to many african-american voters who weren't going to show up. we've seen them show up in the elections before. the question is, though, is there an infrastructure -- >> i just want to -- >> -- in place -- >> i want to get this right for twitter and youtube. you're saying that donald trump is just like barack obama? >> i am saying that he will be -- >> i want to do that -- >> he could be to disaffected white voters to what barack obama was to disaffected black voters. >> but it wasn't just that obama was inspiring, he was inspiring and he had a kick-ass, can i say that, infrastructure, that no one -- >> and they had a serious ground game, too. >> and we at nbc news and many other reporters have looked at the alleged ground game that is going on in all the battleground states and it really does not exist. it's been farmed out to the rnc. they've been overwhelmed. they don't have the money, nor the peep, nor the resources to do the work that you're describing to identify those

voters and take them to the polls. >> and i think that's joan's point on the message mobilization meets organization. we've been to these trump rallies. i've sen people at the rallies that don't necessarily fall into the local republican party machinery. these rallies do look different. but unlike obama rallies and a lot of other traditional campaign organizations, you don't see people collecting information. you don't see note cards. you don't see supporter cards. you don't see people with the ipads. jamal, you don't see any of that. you get the feeling that when you does build a crowd, step one in politics, step two, three, four, collect, contact, remind are all missing. >> it might be more complicated than that. joe heck is turning out his voters who are going to vote against the top of the ticket in order to try to win that state. rob portman might be in the same place and toomey could be also. >> we're going to pause, but the panel states. after the break, counting the way the trump campaign says it

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the 2016 campaign is down to its final two weeks. time running out for trump campaign. but today his daughter-in-law insisted, it ain't over until it's over. >> what about the october surprise from the trumps, towards hillary clinton? when are you going to drop that? >> well, there are still a couple days left in october. >> oh, really? so you might have something? >> we've got some stuff up our sleeve. >> there are a few days left in october. now, i know the debate would seem to be the last thing drrp would want right now, or is that the surprise? >> the debates are a very unique opportunity for all of america to see these candidates side by side. and i wish there were more debates, frankly.

we would be willing to do another one if somehow they could squeeze it in. >> we all wish that, kellyanne. we all wish there was time for one more debate. and one supporter this weekend had another recommendation for the campaign. >> please tell obama and trump to stick to the issues and he'll beat hillary. i'm tired of the -- >> good luck. good luck. if you can tell him. if anybody can tell him. >> let's bring back the panel. joan walsh, beth fouhy, and jamal simmons. that voter we played, and we try to listen to what voters are actually saying out there, obviously taps a nerve that a lot of people feel, up and down -- everyone talks about elites and real america. everyone feels that this race has repeatedly, joan, been hijacked by small issues, petty personal attacks, often led by one of the candidates, donald trump, but also a media feeding frenzy that reinforces it. >> i think the clinton people feel this to some extent. they go out and do talk about the issues every day, but we in the media only cover when she

attacks donald trump or one of her surrogates -- she's got this amazing roster of the president and the first lady and joe biden and elizabeth warren today. but what did people talking about, elizabeth warren, she's just digging in and getting under trump's skin. she said this and that and trump's going to tweet about it. i think there is a lot of frustration. to this idea of the debate, we want it, "snl" wants it, but it's kind of like if the los angeles dodgers said to the cubs, just give us one more game. it's really pretty preposterous. >> and to beth's point, reporters have a duty to try to be fair to both sides in what they're putting out. on the other hand, if a clown in face paint shows up outside the council on foreign relations and says they have a plan to defeat isis, right, it is hard to take it seriously, if that's all you can see. and donald trump did lay out and i asked matt schlapp about it earlier in the hour some proposals that sounded like cleanup government reform proposals over the last few days, but it comes after a

period of time where he himself has said policy doesn't matter and he's not running on policy and he has taken every whichway position. so it's understandable that the press also looks at that and says, we're not necessarily going to cover it like a big policy event that we've been to. >> and it's two weeks before the election. things are baked into the cake at this point. donald trump has been very clear about what kind of a candidate he is. he's a message candidate, a symbols candidate. the wall, the muslim ban. you don't go very deep in policy on any of that, but you know where he stands. and that's why his supporters like him. why a debate is going to help him? i don't know. he lost all three debates. i think kellyanne -- >> that's what the voters found. >> right, consistently. it wasn't the press that said that, it was the voters. so now, it's a long ball that she would be throwing to maybe get him to, you know, in front of the american public, one more time, 70 million people, to give him another chance. but why would he debate any differently than he did in the first three? >> you know, ari, the clinton campaign has been fantastic at making this about donald trump.

and i don't know who he is in the opposition research world that has been unleashing these bombs on him for the last couple of months, but it's kept him on defensive and really defined it. what they haven't been as good about from the very beginning is about a level of message discipline about their policies. we've got this wall that says hillary clinton is for, all these stickies all over it. that's part of the problem on her website, she has 1 hurricane policies, which is great for a person who's going to be governing, i want my president to have 100 policies, but i want my president to have two or three and talk about those two or three every single day, everywhere she goes, so we all know what she wants to do when she's president. >> and it may not be disqualifying for office, beth, but you see that in her management style, some of what emerges in the wikileaks e-mails, which are controversial to really rely on for all the rbs i think people know, is the product of a hack, et cetera. but one of the things you see, it's not criminal, not a smoking gun scandal, but what you see is a person who after all this time leading different institutions, including the state department, still struggles to manage a

group of people, stay in touch with people. you have senior aides fighting with each other, revealing the e-mails over whether she will get on the phone with people. i wonder if that combined with -- >> that's nothing. >> well, here's what i would say to that. what wikileaks is showing us is the daily machinations of the campaign. a lot of it not that visurprisi. but she is a centrist democrat running at a time that the party has moved. she's kind of running at the wrong time. and her aides and the candidate herself are trying to figure out how she position herself in this environment, which has changed so much even since 2008 when she ran. >> briefly? >> i think in the old days, we used to look at politicians who would find a parade and get in front of it. now people want in the democratic party people who are in the parade and want to push them to the front. that's going to be the going forward way of picking candidates. >> is that a fair read on hillary clinton? >> i don't think that's necessarily. i think she's more progressive -- >> do you think she's a secret progressive?

>> i don't think it's a secret. i think that the things that she's worked for her whole life are progressive things. and i think we see -- what we're seeing is her staff arguing about things. we're not really seeing what she's actually saying. so -- >> well, that's because she deleted the e-mails, joan. you know why -- >> the parties so much, more than she has. >> jamal, beth, joan, thank you all for joining. good conversations. tonight, the trump campaign also become with what many think of as a potential preview of trump tv. i'm not kidding. that's real footage you're looking at. we'll explain, right after the break.

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this is why i started. are we glad that i started? are we happy? well, i'll let you know on the evening of november 8th where i'm glad. >> donald trump on sunday. you hear it in there, sort of grappling with the prospect of a world after election day, and the press, which gave trump such a boost of attention throughout this campaign is also beginning to wrestle with the same issue. some reporters are saying, if trump loses, the press should be careful not to fall into the trap of following his post-election controversies and tweets as if he was still a contender. in "the washington post" today, trump addiction is hard habit to break. and "new york times" columnist frank bruni proposes that the press had to set some practical

goals for how to combat trump's manipulation. quote, we need rules for quitting him. guidelines for the circumstances in which coverage out of him is legitimate and those in which it isn't. we can't outright ignore him but tonight we can't roll over for him. tonight, the trump campaign is hosting a facebook live show, sort of a tv show online, everybody night. this is something like what they did on the night of the last and final debate. right now, we have, with i think, the right guest to unpack this media political conundrum, new yorker writer, robert hershberger, thanks for being here. >> thank you, ari. >> how does the press deal with someone who is not going to go away in the public sphere if he loses, without distorting the picture that the public should have? >> well, i think his problem is really going to take care of itself, largely. i mean, there is something called the media and it's a much different animal from what it was when i started first

covering politics. it's a hugely fragmented reality, with all kinds of different ways of presenting material and a whole different ecology. dozens of these things. and i do think that once he is not the republican nominee for president, you're not going to have rallies of 20,000 peoples. that's -- that was -- that was catnip. it was impossible to turn away from that stuff. mainly, because you never knew what he was going to say. and it was boosting ratings, hugely. hugely. so there were sort of -- there was a legitimate news motivation and a not-so-legitimate motivation. >> do you think the print press also falls into that trap? because "the new york times" writes, well, we cover what's happening, but we don't need him on the front page to sell papers. we're selling papers, anyway. >> yeah, they're selling papers, anyway.

"the new yorker" is selling magazines, anyway. but the straight press, the regular press, the traditional press has gone through a lot of soul searching during this campaign, and how to present, how to cover trump. and a lot of outlets that you would never have expected to do this have started to say, to call a lie a lie and to actually take account of reality, instead of he said/she said, everything that comes lightning. >> well, i want to show. we were looking at this today, and there is a gravitational poll that normally happens with normal nominees, and he isn't one, to be sure. but take a look at news coverage here in the day after the election. this is newspaper mentions of these losing nominees, both parties, the day after, in the middle 100s. then to new year's day, the next year, it's down to a handful, down to six, one, the little yellow dot bar you see on the right is the cratering. the question here is, if that's the norm, if that's accurate, if

that's fair, then will the press be making a mistake if they cover him, because i don't think you or i would at all believe that it's down to ten reference ifs he's tweeting up a storm or calling himself a president as he rail against corrupt hillary clinton. >> if he behaves differently, i think he'll be covered differently. and yes, i think he'll get more attention than previously defeated candidates, who do tend to slink off and lick their wounds. we don't know if trump will do that or not. actually, i have a swigs that he actually might suddenly go all nice after he loses. because the brand is being damaged very badly. that brand doesn't belong to him alone, but to his whole family. and the family may not want him to continue making a spectacle of himself in a way that is undermining, coming close to destroying the business. >> since i have you here, and i always like learning about politics from you. i'm going to ask you the bigger

question, which is, can donald trump, through this campaign, do you believe, show a way that even if unsuccessful, will be emulated by other republican politicians at the very least, or was this kind of a bug in the system, because of his wealth and celebrity that really isn't emulatable by most people? >> i don't think most people can make themselves like donald trump, but figures by donald trump will continue to emerge. there's a concern that he'll be john the baptist for the really talented demagogue that comes along next. we see it across the western europe, the type of politician that we haven't seen since the 1930s -- >> a charismatic strong man, particularly in a mass media age. rik hertzberg, thank you for joining us. that wraps up our political coverage for this hour. i want you to stay tuned right now, because "hardball" with chris matthews starts right now.

is donald trump the new baghdad bob? let's play "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews out in pittsburgh, where tomorrow i'll be interviewing vice president joe biden who's out on the campaign trail. with just two weeks to go in the race and polls showing a lead for hillary clinton, there's at least one person who thinks donald trump is winning. donald trump. according to trump, the polls are phony and the democrats are trying to discourage his supporters. here was trump earlier today. >> some great polls have just come out. i believe we're actually winning. if you read "the new york times" and some of these phony papers. these are phony, disgusting, dishonest papers. but if you read this stuff, it's like, what are we doing? what are we wasting time for? the truth is, i think we're winning. what they do is they sw