campaigning in florida tomorrow, two weeks out now from this election. we will cover that when we see you right back here tomorrow evening. so with that, good night from our headquarters in new york. "hardball with chris matthews" begins now. is donald trump the new baghdad bob? let's play "hard ball." ? good evening, i'm chris matthews in pittsburgh where tomorrow i will interview joe biden who is out on the campaign trail. with two weeks to go in the race and polls showing a lead for hillary clinton, there's at least one person who thinks donald trump is winning. donald trump. according to trump the polls are phony and the democrats are trying to discourage his supporters. here is trump earlier today.

>> there are some great polls that have come out. i believe we're winning. these are phony, disgusting, dishonest papers. but if you read this stuff, what are we doing? what are we wasting time for? what they do is show phony polls where they look at democrats and it is heavily weighted with democrats and then they put on the poll where we're not winning and everybody says oh, they're not winning what they do is try and suppress the vote. this way people don't go out and vote. but we're winning this race. i really believe we're winning. >> later in the day trump said the polls show he's down but said his voters have greater enthusiasm than clinton's voters. let's listen to that. >> i think we're going to have a brexit situation. that one was behind in the polls. and i guess i'm somewhat behind in the polls but not by much. one point, two points and even in two polls.

one point, two point and even. and i think we have a greater, a tremendous enthusiasm, much greater enthusiasm than she has. >> yesterday kellyanne conway acknowledged they were the underdogs. let's watch her. >> where do you see this race right now? do you acknowledge that you're behind? >> we are behind. she has some advantages like 66 million in ad buys just in the month of september. our advantage going in, we were behind 1, 3, 4 points in some states that mitt romney lost to obama. he will continue to take the case to the people. >> arguing with fox news decision desk over the results, throwing in the towel, for his party's candidate, let's watch him. >> if he plays it inside straight, he can get in. but i doubt he will be able to play it -- he has 186 electoral votes in states that he either leads outside of the margin of

error, or is thought comfortably put away. that compares to romney's 206. he would have to not only win two states where he is either only slightly ahead or behind by four. but he would have to pick up states where he is behind by at or above the national average. i don't see it happening. >> when the latest abc news tracking poll, clinton has 12-point lead over trump. 50-38. that's nationally. trump called it totally phony poll, that one. cnn opinion research poll just out today shows a closer race. with clinton leading by just five points, 49-44. i'm joined by the "new york times," hugh hewitt and tad divine is back. he is former senior adviser to bernie sanders campaign. good to have them back. let's go to yamisha, in this order, what is the strategy of trump saying he is not behind because just the other day he was saying the election is fixed and he can't possibly win. i thought one was to encourage

voters. i'm not sure -- what is his strategy? saying he is going to win and polls are wrong or say he is getting screwed, polls are right. what is his strategy here? >> we're seeing two things happen here. donald trump i think is in one way trying to tell people that he is realizing that he is behind or that he wants to rile up his base and tell people, there's still time, we need to get this together. but there is another part of donald trump where he is in denial in some ways. he sees the same polls he would be talking about if he was winning and says now they are rigged and it goes to the idea of making a case that election is rigged and wants supporters to feel like if i lose it is not because of anything i did but really because the media and people who are rigging this election. >> yeah. he is really trying to be scientific about it or clinical. let me tell you how they rig it. they give more weighting to democrats when they are polled than to the potential republican voters. he is really getting into the science of polling and showing how it's being, according to

him, rigged. i'm not sure what the same time is, except the polls are rigged, elections are rigged, is that theme to get his people out? >> i think a theme to get his people out but i should say it is part of this him being angry at the system. yes he want his voters out and they are enthusiastic. i two say he is bright with that but then his supporters are very enthusiastic. there is a little bit of that going on. but he is really kind of the departing from the message of his campaign. kellyanne conway is trying to tweet out and do interviews where she says we understand we are behind. she wants people to understand they are serious presidential candidates and they understand what numbers are saying to them. donald trump is doing what he wants to do in this case. >> hugh, can you understand the strategy? public strategy? >> no, not really. i think it's important for him to focus on the obama care melt down, lead polsters to polling. if he wants to point to

anything, point to tom cotton winning by 17% two years ago in arkansas and mitch mcconnell winning by 13%. nothing predicted to anything that close to that kind of landslide. i learned, trust the real clear politics average and campaign on the issues. >> what do you think was, i hate to take you down a rabbit hole you don't want to go down but why was the race underpolled? why was mitch mcconnell underpolled? >> i think state polling is more difficult than national polling. i've tried to clear it up. the bigger the sample, the bigger it is to moddel a turn out. every six years on an off year is a real bust. but cotton won by 17 points. brad of "politico" pointed out to me the last poll showed him winning by 8 to 10. but three weeks out they thought it bass a dead heat and cotton wins by 17 point.

it does give you some pause at polls. >> tad, i don't understand. two weeks to go in the polls, why doesn't trump say the following. if you like the way things are going, vote for the usual candidate, hillary clinton. if if you like wait we have uncontrolled immigration, vote for that. if you like the stupid wars, vote yes for that. if you vote for hillary clinton you're voting for the way things are and set up smartly instead of arguing about polling and crap like that. your thoughts? >> my thoughts because he is not a disciplined candidate. he doesn't care about the mechanics of campaigns. he doesn't stick to a message. this guy will say whatever wasn't to say if he thinks it serves his purposes at that moment. a twitter kind of form of communication be you know, i think he is trying to offer reassurance to supporters he is not out of it. but truth is he has fallen far

behind. >> what do you think happened to him? the tape from 2005? what is it that broke his clans? >> i think the combination of number one, the debates where hillary clinton performed like a president. she dealt with him very effectively. number two, the tape released of him on the bus confirmed all of the suspicions that people had about him. particularly with women. that's why he is trailing. 20 point down in the abc poll with women right now. i think a combination of those events. >> trump went after the media today again saying we is looking out for working americans. i wish he would say, not that i want him to do it, but smart thing is to do it the right way. let's watch. >> the media isn't just against me. they're against all of you. that's really what they're against. they're not against me. they're against what we represent. the media is entitled, condescending and even contemptuous of the people who don't share their elitist views.

and this is all for money. for money largely. money and power. i see you and i hear you. i am your voice. >> let me go to hugh on that. what do you make on the argument he represent the regular folks out there and the media represent the elite and why would the media, a lot of media are ivy leaguers and you might say the intellectual elite, i don't think that's what i would brag about but they are some of them. why is the media pro elite according to him? give me the motivation. you're on that side of thinking, i want to hear the smart way of saying it mp. >> thank you. to quote kissinger, it has the benefit of being true. 90% of manhattan elites will vote for hillary clinton and applaud her reelection. that is what dan rather said. news is where you look. those elites look for news in places other than for example the obama care premium hikes or the problems that the fbi. these are stories where if

donald trump were making a comprehensive case, it goes back to nixon, you know this chris, an old saw and true saw in the republican cannon that you don't get a fair shake. but you got to deal with it by focussing on issues, not on the problem of bias. >> you think that's true? do you think that's true? i look at joe biden, he's not elite. i look at bobby of pennsylvania, i don't think he is elite. i look at toomey, he is not elite. who are the elite in the media? give me the names. >> if we ask people like donald trump or people like bernie sanders, they are both going after some of the same people. talking about the "new york times." about the washington post. and really this is something i think that is kind of an effective argument because people do feel when they go and get the news that they are really getting it from these people who have some sort of plan to rig this election or rig the economy or don't want to cover the real issues. when the media is covering the news of the day and what we think is important. there are value judgments.

>> do you know anyone that new york times is pro life? >> that's an question i'm going to answer. i have no idea. >> do you know anybody? you don't have to name names. do you know anybody -- >> i have not asked my coworker that question, i should say. >> that's cute. >> i want to say one thing. >> that's the way you make your point. go ahead. sorry. >> this idea of, i was talking it a trump supporters today and he said that he felt that donald trump was what he called a blue collar billionaire. that's the first time i heard that term. people believe he is the voice for them and i think that's something that is really powerful and that could be an issue that he could continue to talk about if he wasn't talking about suing his sexual assault accusers. >> i'm going back to you and to. some people like him. he is a sinatra guy. but he acts like a little guy who got to be a big guy. your thoughts? >> he doesn't sound like that. the language that he uses.

but that clip you just played of trump, taking it directly off the teleprompter. very effective. a powerful message. trump's problem is he stops going off the teleprompter. he goes gettysburg to make this address and says he is suing all of the women talking against him. this is stupid and selfish. >> democrats trying hard to win control of the senate. they are hoping to switch red to blue in pennsylvania. the battle for the senate series. this is hard ball, the place for politics. ntly, 1954 mercedes-be granprix race car politics. and now, anotherercedz makes history sellin at jusover $30,000. and to think this one tually has a surround-sound stereo. the 2016la. lease e cla250 for $299 a l

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cident fgiveness for driversh but my back pain was making it hard to sleep en i foundleve pm. the only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain re. aleve pm fr a better am. welcome back to "hardball." one contest that could decide control over the u.s. senate is my home state of pennsylvania. the most expensive campaign in the country for that office. in real clear politics average, pat toomey holds a two-point

lead over challenger katy mcbegin they. pennsylvania trended democratic in recent elections but one thing toomey has for him in history, splitting tickets three times since 19 t92 when specter was voted in and then presidential candidate bill clinton. re-electing rick santorum to the senate and then al gore for president. re-electing specter that time by throwing democrats to john kerry for president. things changed. in 2000 democrats had 500,000 votes advantage and today they have rough lay million voters advantage in registration. toomey has to contend with the coat tails of hillary clinton who leads by 6 points and with challenges facing party's nominee donald trump. over the weekend clinton took on actually the incumbent senator directly. >> send katie mcginty on behalf

of pennsylvania to the united states senate. she is running against someone who refuses to stand up to donald trump. how much does he have to hear or to see? >> and their first debate on television, toomey has yet to say who he will vote for. whether or not would vote for trump was pressed by the moderator and mcginty to show his choice. >> as leader in your party, yes or no, do you support as in will you vote for and encourage others to vote for your presidential nominee. >> because katie is so extremely partisan she can't grasp the idea that someone might have trouble with candidate in their own party. i do. on the other hand i know if he were president would he probably sign legislation that would be constructive. >> i tell you, waiting to be persuaded is political speak for waiting for the next poll. but again the senators the only person in the united states of america who has not levelled

with his constituents on the simple question. are you voting for donald trump? i'll yield the balance of my time back to the senator so he can now answer that question. >> we will move on. senator one last go at this. will you disclose to your constituents and other voters how you vote before the election? >> at some point i probably will. >> moderator sound like me. a few days later toomey acknowledged he is in a tough spot. >> i am still in the same mode i was monday night which is feeling stuck. >> feeling stuck. politicians don't usually say that. guys sees democratic strategist and head of the pro clinton super pac. we know what predicament is. two kind of voters who could vote for toomey. those for trump and republicans not for trump. two groups of voters. you knock one group, the other group may not like you and reverse the same thing. hard it keep both republicans groups happy. >> politically it is a tough

spot, no question for that. for pat toomey, good senator focus owned policy, he is torn between hillary clinton who he hates, doesn't think she would be a good president and trump who he also doesn't like. he has been up front about trump's outrageous policies and statements. pat toomey has a good record. partisan achievement on gun control and other things and i think that's why he is leading despite distraction eats the top of the ticket is throwing at him. >> last yes on the very front. do pennsylvania voters still believe there is such a thing as east coast republican? a jack heinz republican? do they think there are republicanes who not right wingers they would feel comfortable voting for especially in the burbs? >> i think so. and that is pat toomey. one of the most bipartisan senators in the senate. whether you agree or not. worked with west virginia on common sense solution to background checks.

worked to keep child sex predators out of school. worked to clear up the backlog at v.a. he is someone who has a record of achievement. that's why he is leading right now in a challenging year over all for republicans. >> guy, democrats have told me but pennsylvania democrats at the very top level told me toomey is shrewd and coming out for background checks with his partner from west virginia a dell considerate that he has done just enough on guns not to defend the nra and therefore win in the burbs, what do you think? >> i think you illustrated it perfectly. not only when it comes to trump but when it comes to guns he is trying to have it both wayes. democrats have done a good job on pushing back on the narrative in part by using toomey's own words about being a friend and reliable vote for the nra and point you to the fact that he is -- >> how is he different than casey, democratic senator from pennsylvania on guns? >> on guns? >> yeah. how is he different? >> sure. there is a couple of things.

if you look at assault weapons, still issues there in terms of him disclosing what he believes. he also says according to the nra, opposing supreme court justices in part because of their view of the second amendment and supports grup donald trump and that is the heart on the -- >> just to delineate, he is different than the popular incumbent democratic senator on guns. they vote for background checks. >> right. but on assault weapons ban, on limit on ammunition, vietnam for supreme court justice based on the second amendment which the nra score chess is why most democrats almost always get an f even if they are mildly supportive and in terms of their support of donald trump. >> thank you, guys. when we return, my election diary for tonight, october 24th with just 15 days to go. this is "hardball", the place for politics.

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election diary monday october 24, 2016. something changed. this campaign feels very differently than a week or tw ago. now it feels like the battle between hillary clinton and donald trump is over. hillary's going to win. former secretary of state be joined in morning after headlines with a senate take over as well? a big number up there on the front page telling how many seats in the house of representatives the democrats gain end republicans lost? you can see it in president obama's taunting of darrell issa

with the perpetual investigation of the probe of democrats. you see it in the president's big push of senate candidates wherever he goes. he doesn't want just a mandate for hillary. he wants whopper. then baghdad bob said this isn't true. he was the guy broadcasting from the iraqi capital as the u.s. troops arrived to take over the city. today the die hard voice coming from the republican presidential campaign is that of the candidates himself. baghdad bob, meet donald trump. that's "hardball" for now. join us tomorrow 7:00 p.m. eastern. see you then. ♪

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