the sunshine state. trump's running mate governor mike pence will be crisscrossing ohio with three stops scheduled for today. governor pence will join brian join mr. williams tonight. >> "morning joe" starts right now. hey, johnny, did you know the last time the cubs won the world series it was 1908. >> i did know that. that's a long time. >> in 1908, our president was hubgsable roosevelt, america's top export was fruit rollups and the number one television show was "the pressure prince of bel air," starring lee majors. >> clearly you have been

following baseball even though you passed away in 1998. >> 1998? >> yeah. >> holy cow, i'm dead. >> the comedian will ferrell on jimmy kimmel last night. >> i love his harry caray. >> game one tonight. how do you feel? obviously, the cubs shall the big blaring spotlight. they have not won it since 1908? but you look at cleveland, and they have just as compelling a story. they have not won since '48, is that right? >> yeah, indians into the world series and win it in 1948 and the cavaliers get their rings tonight at 7:00, and they moved

up the ceremony, and the cleveland indians and game one of the world series tonight, and it's great for cleveland, for at least five games, cubs. >> this is a no-lose situation for america, and whoever wins this, it's great. >> you look at the year cleveland has had and they hosted a convention, and every one of us left cleveland just blown away by how great the city was, and growing up in the '70s, it was the mistake on the league, and it was what london was prethatcher, except -- >> you didn't have three-day weeks, so -- >> okay, it was worse there. >> the coal miner's strike. >> there's that. >> you guys had margaret thatcher, and we had mayor,

dennis kau vin seufp. >> our guests, rick tyler. >> we have breaking news. nbc news survey monkey poll just came out two minutes ago. >> uh-huh. it shows donald trump and hillary clinton a little closer. the survey monkey online tracking poll shows clinton with that a five-point lead, and gary johnson at 7%, and trump gained one point since last sunday. in a two way race it's 50-44, the new cnn poll shows trump five points behind, and both candidates gaining two points since the poll was last conducted back on october 2nd, and gary johnson dropped four points to 3%, and in a two-way

race, hillary has a four-point lead. >> let's stop right there. if you follow the media and journalists on twitter, and this race is over. you know, yesterday people were comparing trump's numbers to walter phaupb dell's -- >> what i am saying is they are trying to figure out how huge the landslide is going to be. a lot of people have been saying around here there was going to be a tightening, and when you look at the polls that had 12 and 13 points, we have two polls that just came out and said it was a five-point race, and five points is still a landslide, and if you look at trend lines it could be tightening up. >> i think the best thing you

can say for donald trump is after the access hollywood tape the bottom did not fall out completely, and you have five and six seven points which is a big lead two weeks out, and if you go inside and look at the swing states, he is doing well in north carolina and good in florida, and pennsylvania, nevada, so many swing states where he is down so big, colorado, it's still going to be very, very difficult for him to win. he does have an issue he can use which is the obamacare story about twaeplpremiums going up 2d all things predicted by conservatives -- >> yeah, they are coming true with obamacare. >> maybe that could impact the race. let's look at the swing state polls. a deadlock race in north carolina, and clinton at 47 and

tprupl at 46, and johnson down to 4%. in battleground nevada, seven points separate the candidates, and clinton with 48% and trump at 41%. >> so this is trump's problems, the problem is it's not enough for him to win north carolina, and it's not enough for him to win ohio, and it's not enough for him to win all the swing states everybody is looking at. but if that he loses nevada, he loses. he has to get all the swing states plus he's got to pick up new hampshire and half of maine. >> i think if you are looking at the race being over, which some are talking about and looking at the potential of hillary clinton not just winning but winning big, which is kind of ironic,

based on popular vote, i am going to the trump rally today, and he can make up traction on the obamacare rates, and it's very hard to see how he gets to that 270. >> mike? >> i think there are three elements still alive and active. one is turnout. what is the turnout going to be after the dreadful campaign? many voters listening to this daily. and the second is voter saw pressure suppression.

>> you mentioned new hampshire, and the governor running for the senate seat was in there until a week half ago when trump just collapsed and hillary clinton is now up, depending on what poll you look at, between 8 and 15 points, and she cannot survive that kind of a margin. >> it's two weeks from today, right? >> two weeks! >> yeah, that's number one. number two, it's 2016, one of the most tumultuous years yet. and number three, we have seen polls go up and down and up and down, wildly. i am not saying this race is over, and it's just hard -- i mean, i am not saying that donald trump has a great chance of winning this race, and we're two weeks out. >> what is your sense of turnout? >> i don't think it's going to be as good for hillary clinton.

and i could be wrong. i find it hard to believe there will be the excitement obama had in 2012. >> hold that thought, because i think it's going to apply to dispel the notion, trump's campaign had this battleground map. >> colorado is, if you talk to

the campaign, this is the state that baffles them the most. >> right. >> because internal polls show them closer for some reason. and external polls are showing clinton up comfortably, but i saw a poll last night from an independent pollster that had it much closer. >> they have arizona, utah and georgia as locked in for trump. and yesterday his manager said yesterday there are hidden clues to depicting their path to 270. >> watch and see where we deploy our major assets, governor pence, and mr. trump, and super saeur guts going out there and keeping their own schedules soon. that's our road map and i share it privately here, and whatever you see shared publicly may be different for different reasons, and we have a couple different paths to get to 270 and are

pursuing them. >> they don't have many different paths, and the one path is they have to win everything that are in a toss up right now, and they still have to win new hampshire, which is going to be a stretch. and they have to win new hampshire and maine, too, others suggests. they are saying georgia is a lock, and arizona is a lock, and they are not a lock. if this race is really a five-point race, trump needs to spend the next two weeks picking up another three or four points just to make those swing states close enough for him to put over in the column. >> nationally for sure, and look at it another way, and all clinton has to do is pick up any swing state, nevada, arizona,

north carolina -- >> anyone. >> just one and it's over. and so there's about 150, joe, electoral votes that are considered tossed up and 65 of those are in georgia, texas, and arizona, and that's 65 in those three combined and those are all states donald trump should be winning handily. he is not. he has to pick up 112 out of the 150 tossups and she needs to pick up 8. it's really very difficult to see how donald trump could possibly pull this off. with two weeks to go, health care might be a big issue, but with two weeks to go, it seems unlikely it could go their way. >> it could break the last weekend trump's way and we have a closer race. >> that's appear big break. >> it's not as a big of a break

the media wants people to think. >> really? >> again, i was here at the beginning of september and i asked everybody if they thought the race was over, and everybody oh, yeah, the race is over, the race is over, the race is over. a week later trump was, like, it was a draw in colorado, and then everybody started freaking out and jumping out of windows because it looked like trump could win, and then he shot himself not in the foot, but in every extremity. his own campaign people are fighting him. >> the worse he is feeling about the polls, whatever he is saying at the rallies, the less disciplined he is. >> oh, god. >> and i can't believe this is tph novel, because i will get killed on twitter today for the reality, and you have people who

loathe hillary clinton, and they are scared of donald trump. >> you have a guy who literally broke through every expectation, i mean, exceeded. >> is running the most undisciplined campaign, and so much so that kelly anne conway is debating her own candidate, and everybody around him is debating him and he was supposed to go to gettysburg, and this was going to be the moment where he was going to pivot to issues standing on the hallowed ground, and he was talking about suing women for sexual harassment. >> the first 100 days. >> priorities. >> so he's within five points. do i think -- what i was going to say, and let's say it breaks his way three or four points over the next two weeks, and we

have a closer race. or, probably more likely given his lack of discipline, willie, it breaks the other way and suddenly we will follow texas late in the night. it's up to him, but he's not listening to anybody, and it could be where we see where texas goes democratic for the first time in '64. >> the two factors are the obamacare, and wikileaks, and we don't know what is going to come out. and consider where they are today, though, and mike pence is in utah, and two weeks ahead of election day, the republican vice presidential candidate is in utah defending that ground because a third-party candidate may win. and --

>> i would add a third element. the get out the vote operation, and the clinton operations is fast, mobile, huge, in place now for months. >> and in some extent you are seeing that it could be an indication of the american african vote, and they are not excited and needs more attention from the clinton campaign and now you have congressman asking for resources for the downed ballot candidates, and if you are seeing high numbers of democrats voting early in north carolina, that's some indication of how that state will go. >> he pushed the obamacare button.

higher premiums and fewer options, and health plans are set to rise. the administration says about 1 in 5 consumers will have a single insurer to choose from since many have reduced their roles in the marketplace, and donald trump seized on the news while campaigning in tampa last night. >> it's over for obamacare, and hillary clinton wants to double down and make it more expensive and it's not going to work. i called it when it first came out, and it's only getting worse. not only for you, for the country, because our country can't afford it and you can't afford it and 1 in 5 americans trapped in obamacare will have a single insurer to choose from and boy are those insurers going to have a good time with you. >> rick tyler, this is the argument that conservatives and

many health policy experts have been making since obamacare was first proposed the premiums would go up and the choices would shrink over time and now you have the obama white house admitting to that? >> i listened to a lot of economists saying the prices are going to go down, and i say any third grader could have figured this out. you know, if you limit the choice and people -- and you don't have pre-existing conditions and the natural downward cost pressures, and absent those, what will happen? the prices will go up. young people are still not buying insurance and the obama administration has not fined a single person for not buying health insurance, and it's just a role for disaster. a free market health care system, it works wherever else and it ought to work in health, and there's downward cost

pressure and it causes providers to provide better quality services at the greatest convenience at the lowest cost. >> the timing of the headline, it could be a little late, and even bill clinton called it the craziest thing in the world, did he not? he slipped. >> he talked about premiums going up and choices going down, craziest thing in the world he said. craziest thing. some poor guy humping it for 60 hours a week and working hard and he's kicked off of their and it's the craziest thing in the world. oops. >> he ended up being right, absolutely. >> month in the making, a look inside how the clinton campaign worked their miss universe line of attack before the first debate. and whoever thought utah would revel florida as a battleground. and plus, could the presidential

race end up sinking the highest ranking republican on capitol hill? house speaker ryan is facing major blowback from his own party right now, and there are polls to prove it. a storm in the middle of the country a. rain maker for the midwest starting today and great lakes tonight and tomorrow and then in the northeast on thursday, and something that will be in the form of the snow. and chicago, it looks like thursday, umbrella day in new england. we are going to watch temperatures rising a little during the day but still cold in new england. the warm weather up in texas to oklahoma, beautiful today, and then we have the world series in cleveland and it will be a little chilly out there, and temperatures are going to be about 47 degrees, and here's the forecast for the series tonight,

game one, cleveland indians and chicago cubs, and a chance of showers out there on wednesday, and i don't think it will be a rainout but not pretty sitting in the stand with 40 degrees and a cold rain on top of you, and it will be fun anyway, and cubs and indians, and the curse will end for one of them. watch out, thursday morning, snow will be flying. you are watching "morning joe." with directv and at&t you can stream your favote shows without using your data. that makes you more powerful than being sck in an elevator with a guy with overactiveweat glands. sorry, rode myike today. cool. it's youtat th you. watch all ur live ls on yr devices, dat.

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>> obama couldn't negotiate getting a whopper without pickles @woodstockdave. >> thanks, dave. i lifted the ban on cuban cigars, that's something. president obama will go down as perhaps the worst president in the history of the united states

@realdonaldtrump. well, at least i will go down as a president. >> he dropped the mike. hillary clinton's use of donald trump's kphepts of a formal miss universe's weight was months in the making, and that was by one of the data dumps from hillary clinton. a 157-page research document e-mailed to podesta in december revealed the clinton campaign discovered a number of damaging quotes by trump regarding alicia machado nine months before hillary clinton used them at the first debate. the data dump reveals the clinton team began to map out

their attacks on trump in february, and johnson asked when the campaign will start going after trump. i know you can't look past bernie and march primaries, but who is in charge of the trump swift vote project, johnson wrote, referring to a series of attacks in 2004 by the swift vote veterans. again, these e-mails have not been independently authenticated. >> it is fascinating to look at the campaign and the look at the different characters in the campaign, and it's also surprising hillary clinton comes under -- i won't say attack, but is critiqued by at one time or another almost every member

within her campaign of being sort of tone deaf -- >> low energy. >> low energy. not being effective as a campaigner and overly scripted. i saw one last night just by chance that painted robin in a really good light, and i don't know if you saw this, but cheryl mills was doing what she does, which is hide stuff, and try to make hillary clinton look as disingenuous and corrupt as humanly possible, because that is what cheryl mills has been doing for the clintons for years now, and then one says in a process setup we have to be -- i am paraphrasing. this is just drama. instead of going around in circles and hiding things, let's be transparent here because it is going to cause problems, and it's just a gate time suck on my

part. we are wasting everybody's time, and i looked at it and said he sounds like the guy behind closed doors that everybody told us he was going to be, just a no-nonsense campaign manager. >> look at the wikileaks, and you talked about there could be another dump between now and the election, and if that is all they have, they have nothing. that's textbook campaign strategy. there's no story there. nothing there. that's exactly how they should have handled that story. >> they have this plan that was put together in december, according to wikileaks, and they release it now and why didn't they release it -- >> yeah, before the debate. >> yeah. >> i think the most damming thing in there is for progressives, if you talk about bernie sanders, they call him a

doofus. >> that tells us, mike, who -- all they are telling us is what we know about hillary clinton, she's not a progressive and she's a moderate sort of new democrat neocon. >> the wikileaks reference that you just had about robby mook, young, pulling together this vast operation with access to huge campaign funds is not and has not been part of hillary clinton's inner circle for 15, 20 and 30 years. >> thank god. >> that's a good point. >> those people need to go away. they have done nothing but get her in trouble. the must-rate opinion pages are straight ahead, and plus tom wolf famously wrote you can't go home again, but mike pence has a

different look for republicans who are having second thoughts about the ticket. that's ahead on "morning joe." " "res don't chan that much.i hav" changed..you wanna check you?" "oreally?" "it's girls'night. ah huh." "t"i love suer wedngs!" "ono." "yeah, maybe it is time. maybe shld checkedit score rerma. it" "oh woah. that's different." ""check outredit karmtoday.ybe credit karma. give yourself some crit."

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because, i guess, you didn't send her an invitation by e-mail. >> it's all in the delivery, it really is. >> took a while to get to the punch line. >> he was really drunk that night. up next, one group of republicans blame paul ryan for backing donald trump, another faction is furious he has done half heartedly. that conversation is straight ahead on "morning joe." the mistay connected.es us the miosoft cloud offers infinite slability. thmicrosofcloud hes our customers get up and running, anywhere in e planet. wherever there's a p, you've got bank, and we could never do that before. the cloud ga ua single platform to ach across our

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finally, i thought he never leave... character: why are you texting my man at 2 a.m.? no... if y want someone to l, you pretend ke you're sleepi. ifteen percent or more on car iurce, you switch to geico. it'shat you do. character: tang selfin the kitchen republican vice presidential nominee, mike pence, has a message for republicans wavering on their support for donald

trump, it's time to come home and it was a line he repeated several times on the campaign trail yesterday. >> it's time to reach out to all our republican and conservative friends and say with one voice it's time to come home and elect donald trump as the next president of the united states. it's time to come home and elect the trump-pence team. it's time to come home and come together and do everything in our power to make sure hillary clinton is never elected president of the united states of america. and donald trump, and republican congress can move this country forward. >> one republican who looks to be coming home is the idaho senator, and he pulled his endorsement of donald trump after the leaked tape of trump making comments about hillary clinton, and he said i will vote

for the republican ticket, and trump and pence. we must elect a president who will appoint strong supreme court justices. >> and at politico, jake sherman, and editor and chief at "the hill" newspaper, and we had been hearing for sometime that obviously paul ryan's not pleased everybody in this caucus, but over the last week or so it seems, bob, that the growing consensus inside the caucus is this better not be a close race for paul ryan or else he might lose his speakership because he will be the one that gets the blame for not fighting hard enough to stop hillary clinton from being president. >> you know after a rough election, this is going to be a

rough election for the republican party, and it could be a tough vote for ryan for speakersh speakership, and what if donald trump, he is not going to fade into the sunset should he lose. what if he says you should not point for paul ryan for speaker, and recently he said he will be in a different position post election. i don't think the feud between ryan and trump stops before november 8th. >> i think ryan is going to have to -- from the people i talked to as recently as yesterday, ryan will have to make a quick decision right after election day. as bob said, he lost about ten votes in the speaker race last time and he's going to lose more. so if the margin is close, if it's 15 seats, i personally do think that paul ryan will have a tough time being re-elected. the big question is who is the alternative, and there's no alternative, and that has not stopped people in the past from

deposing speakers, and the signals i am getting from people close to ryan, he is not going to play a game where he is held hostage by an emerging trump wing like he doesn't like this job and never really wanted this job, and i don't think he will be happy to step away, and i do think he will be willing to step away. the list of alternatives, there has to be a small list of alternatives and who would be on the list? >> jim jordan from ohio, respected by his colleagues, a conservative, and then you have to look at other people in leadership, mccarthy and rogers, and honestly, it could be just chaos in the house and we have seen that before, and as jake said, if they have a small majority, i don't know if anybody can be elected speaker in january. >> if that happens, if jim jordan or the freedom caucus is

accessible, what about if this enhances paul ryan's career because the country is not looking to another four or two years of nongoverning? >> if paul ryan wants to run for president in 2020, getting as far away as the nightmare in the house, but i will disagree respectfully with bob, jim jordan could not get close to the voice for the speakers, and you will have to look at somebody coming out of nobody, and somebody who does not have the tarnish, like matt thornberry of texas, and these are names that probably me and joe know, but you are losing a lot of folks in the house that have been natural allies of paul ryan. this election, and joe's former colleague from florida has been in the house since 1992 is going down, so the natural allies, the

establishment republicans are dwindling and there's no way to get around that. >> jake, if paul ryan is an example of what could happen to leaders who have distanced themselves from trump during the course of this campaign, what does he have to do if he goes off into the political willness for a couple of years to rece resuscitate themselves. >> the first step is already happening. paul ryan's allies -- i spoke to a couple yesterday, and they are saying listen, this is going to be a bloodbath and if it were not for paul ryan who is coming around the country trying to raise money for republicans, we would lose the house. so they are already positioning him as a savior that gave up his summer and fall to elect republicans, and i would imagine, and this is just reading the tea leaves, he's interested in poverty and

conservative solutions to inner city problems, and that's the stuff he has done outside the limelight before and it's the stuff i would imagine he would do if he left washington to create a nonprofit to do some of that stuff, and to be clear, he's saying he is running and telling people internally he has no plans not to run, and i just don't see in a 15-seat majority that paul ryan -- i think that's about the breaking point, he could win if he has a 15-seat majority, and anything less i don't see it happening. >> yeah, and that's what happened in 1998, willie, when tphao newt's majority shrunk down to four. and they called him and said you are not going to be speaker anymore, and we don't care who

is, but it's not going to be you. we talked and donald trump will go away to golf courses and fought sitting on a tank like boris yeltsin, he will get engaged and if he loses by a small margin, yeah, that's not going to be pretty. >> bob, that leads to my question then, as you look out over the horizon two weeks from now pass the presidential election into next year, what is the lasting impact of, let's call it trumpism, is it here to stay or something that was a moment in time in american politics? >> good question. i think it sticks around, honestly. i think the trump phenomena no matters what happens in a couple weeks will be studied for decades, and that type of campaigning, unscripted and not being politically correct and talking about the wall, that, i think, is not going to go away anytime soon and that helps you

win primaries, but that position, and mitt romney did it too in 2012 going hard right on immigration, and it hurts you in the general. the trump phenomenon will be here to stay for a while. >> thank you both. >> thank you, guys. >> we have a great piece -- do we have time? >> we do. >> wall street journal rights, my formal republican party, i grew up with parents who liked the old line that they didn't leave the democratic party, the democratic party left them. my mother was a campaign volunteer for mccarthy in 1968, but the party of george mcgovern was not for them and now it's my turn to watch the republican party drift away, whether the trend continues after the election remains to be seen but already the gop is largely unrecognizable to me. i don't see the point of pwto p

longing to a party. if i can't get my party back, i would rather help build a new one. ouch. >> so interesting. >> and there are not a lot of moderate republicans, but small, bill buckley russell clerk conservatives that say this is not my party. >> the question is what they do with that, and that line, i would rather build a new one, and can the republican party become two parties, and are we heading to a three-party system here, and it's hard to imagine. >> and sadly for them, and stevenson said i suspect the losses in the house are the people who want to rebuild the kind of republican party stevens was talking about, the moderate republicans, and there are

moderate republicans they are going to be more susceptible to losing in the house race than the freedom republican party people. >> what is the future of the republican party look like post trump? >> depends on who wins the argument about whose fault it was. i find it remarkable the people that blame paul ryan who has been out there trying to get his republican caucus re-elected, and where has donald trump helped the united states senator get re-elected or a house member get re-elected, and he has been absent and he has gone to war for the exact same people, and how can you blame paul ryan for that? i would leave donald trump for that. and the republican party was founded on freedom, and why would you not fight for your party. if you leave the party you leave the party that you seated it to, and you have to fight for the party so i always say the party may seem like it left you but

you have to stay with the party and make sure it retains conservative values, and if you leave how can you ever get back the republican tar pparty. >> outrage, after promised money to reinsist and now they have been asked to give their money back. >> it begins with the california national guard -- >> can you imagine? >> and they were offered incentives and now they are wanting the money back, and -- >> who is they? the pentagon? >> we will tell you all about it, so stick around. what? wow... yeah! okay... gu, i' bwrita new language for mhines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! soy, i w tryg to p it even hospitals caaway.. bt it on e ce youe goin work on a train? t train...on rain! you're not gon develop stf anymor

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belo let's fill in the blanks on the story we were just talking about. ten years ago the california national guard offered bonuses for soldiers, and now the military wants the money back and saying millions of soldiers didn't qualify. >> former army intelligence analyst, susan haley, veteran of afghanistan is furious. >> they betrayed me. i gave them my time like i promised and they can't give me my time back. >> she sends more than a quarter of her monthly income, $650 to the military, to repay $26,000 in bonuses she got to reinsist. >> we had to dip into our savings, and we completely exhausted our savings account.

>> a former army sergeant earned a purple heart in iraq and refinanced his home to repay what the military says he should not have gotten. >> i think it was a slap in the face. >> both enticed by the guard to sign up for bonus tporz $15,000 or more. only after the incentives were paid did the pentagon realize not all soldiers qualified. the story first reported by the "los angeles times"s involves 10,000 soldiers, and they call it insulting. >> this cannot stand in the way it's going forward right now and we ask the department of defense to waive all outstanding debt for the veterans. >> the senior leadership is

looking closely at the matter, and the soldiers say they already paid. >> am i frustrated and angry? absolutely. >> now hoping the country they proudly served will acted honorably as well. >> how did this happen? >> they had to meet requirements, and so they offard money to meet their requirements, and the guy you saw on there, he won a purple heart and served, and now he has to give $25,000 back. . >> now the pentagon is saying only certain classifications,

civil affairs units and that many of those that got the bonuses were not eligible for the bonuses. where are the people running for public office with their mantra, we are going to take care of the veterans. >> this is a case for the officials where the people at the top screwed up and broke the law and now the people that went and took bullets for the country are paying for it and it's outrageous and has to be reversed. why senate democrats shouldn't get too comfortable even if they win back the majority. 2018 is right around the corner and doesn't look good. plus this -- >> you have a crazy system where 25 million more people have health care and the people out there busting it, sometimes 60 hours a week, wind up with their premiums doubled and coverage

cut in half and it's the craziest thing in the world. >> that's true. >> the hits keep coming for the president's signature health law. >> things like that, you know. >> the cost of premiums are about to go up a lot for a lot of people.

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president? >> are you trying to kill me again? back when i would go into the press box, and trump has the little tiny mitts, you know. yeah. he looked like he was flinging silver dinner platters with those things. >> more of will ferrell as the late chicago cubs' announcer, harry caray. so good at that. welcome back to "morning joe." mike barnicle and catty kay are still with us, and with us, chris aliza, and political reporter for the washington post and msnbc political analyst, great to have you all onboard. >> i guess they did it yesterday and it's on today's website, all of donald trump's insults.

it said, seems -- >> sad. >> it seems among tv shows we even out pace of "meet the press" -- >> come on, now. >> for more insults? >> yeah, rapidly fading -- >> i thought we were in the tank. >> new day only gets two negative mentions. >> deeply personal insults. >> he'll question the lighting on the other show and then call us a inner rottic -- >> willie, uncomfortable looking. >> are you uncomfortable? >> no, i am generally comfortable. >> that was last year. >> but the show gets a lot of -- >> what do we get? i have no power, and i have gone

hostile since i said he won't do the show anymore, and he calls me a clown and mess. >> you are a bit of a mess joe, sometimes. >> this is the winner, and some of the best insults he saved for mika brzezinski. >> why? >> here we go. >> throw them out there. >> mika brzezinski has gone wild with hate, very insecure, and clown off the wall, and inner rottic. very dumb. getting personal. had a mental breakdown while talking about me. >> i think that's what bullies do. just throw stuff out there. >> i am still reading.

>> i had about newt gingrich once, too. >> you did. >> remember that? >> newt was very forgiving. >> very nice about it. >> yeah, you were not nice to them at all. >> i'm sorry. >> we are going to go on. >> all right, can we talk about news now. >> do you remember that? >> i do. >> it was a david letterman khre clip. >> i was so tired and couldn't stop laughing. liz wrote me a note and was 100% right, it was inappropriate. >> you wake up at 4:00 in the morning for decades, and sometimes people say something and you start laughing and it's happening more because i am getting older and i have been waking up every morning for a decade at 4:00, and you did it for three days in a row, and you said you are all out of your mind. people do it three days in a row

and they are in bed for a month. i will be out at some charity event, and i will be like, hey, how -- i like purple. and people will be talking to me and i can't get sentences together, and instead of forcing through it, i will say, i am sorry, i have nothing and i have been up since 4:00 for ten years and my mind is melted down and i will go sit down in the -- corner -- i love lamp. >> how many times when you have been out to a function and it's 8:00 at night and you are standing there and you have been out since 4:00 in the morning, and somebody is talking to them, and how many times you have interrupted to them by saying, are you still talking? >> no. >> sigh hai have not done that. >> you will be up at 10:00, 10:30, and somebody will be -- >> what are you doing up at

10:00, 10:30? >> at the event. >> just leave. >> they never let you leave. >> is that so true? >> it's true. >> you will be out by 8:30. just hand this one award out to little tommy smith, and then you can -- and then they go, wait a second, you need to come and meet the holocaust survivor, and they are here only because of you and we are trying to get him to speak before 10:30 tonight, and what are you going to do, walk out on a holocaust survivor? you may be the difference, staying until 10:30 between genocide and another african country -- >> we are so blessed. >> we are totally blessed. i am just explaining if you see me at your charity event, and at 9:30 at night, i blank out and start saying --

>> foaming at the mouth. >> yeah. >> there's a moment where it stops connecting, and your brain says, it's over. >> that's what my brain does, after 10:00 of waten years of w 4:00, the brain pulls the rip cord and you are out. >> you have to have the discipline of saying, little tommy, you are on your own. >> i don't do that. you do that. >> this presidential election, two weeks left, can you believe it? two polls show donald trump closer to hillary clinton than other recent polls, and the survey monkey online tracking poll shows clinton with a five-point lead, 46% to trump's 41%, and gary johnson at 7% and trump gained one point since last sunday. in a two-way race, it's 50 to 44.

trump five points behind at 4 h --44%. and before the access hollywood tape and the last two debates. gary johnson dropped four points, and jill stein up four points. and then clinton has a cnn poll advantage. >> the trump campaign has been saying for a week now that this is going to be america's brexit. if you have a 13-point lead and you are hillary clinton, this is not going to be america's brexit, and even five points a little too much, probably, and it's two or three, there's the possibility. are the trump people feeling better about these last two polls tightening up a bit? >> the brexit theme is an important undercurrent in the trump circle, and you have the

former head of breitbart news working with trump and in almost every local interview trump is giving, he's talking about brexit because that's how he sees the race, and it's more of a nationalist populist wave they hope to ride and they think the polls are wrong and the media is against them and it's really us against them mentality against globalization, and not really a partisan argument, and that's how they see it inside of the campaign. >> we are going to skip past the video of donald trump hugging an american flag. >> awkward. >> what were the polls the last day before brexit? >> the polls were close right after brexit, and in retrospect i think people were wrong to think we would stay in the european union -- the polls in the final days gave the leave campaign a slight margin and

they were right. >> how could that be when you told me that everybody you knew and the leave campaign people -- are we not re-writing history because this is a theme i am hearing, and there was never a brexit surprise. really? >> here's how there was a brexit surprise, the leave campaign told me we think we are going to lose. two things happened. sterling rallied in the days before the vote and the markets rallied in the days before the vote, and i am not sure why we trust financial markets and in london everybody looks at the markets and they thought the markets rallied and they thought we were going to stay in the european union. clearly -- >> you have shakespeare and the beatles on your side, but polling not so much. >> you don't have a history of polls being that wrong, and we went into the vote with markets and sterling rallying and

skepticism about the polls because we came out of a general election -- >> you are telling me all the polls were showing it close. >> all the polls were showing it close, yes, all the way through, and then in the days beforehand -- >> what is close? >> one or two points. >> okay. that's close. >> that was close. >> which is, by the way, five points, and i don't want anybody to misconstrue what is being said here, five points is a landslide, and four points is a landslide, and especially if you look at a difference between last week, and this week -- this morning, at least, two polls, cnn and the new nbc news survey monkey showing a five-point lead, and you keep going in that direction and it ends up being one or two points, and anything is possible. >> that's exactly right. i think that if you look at it, what is happening is natural

partisanship, and it's add hehe on to the electorate. most polarized race you have in the country, and most money spent and the most educated electorate about the two candidates and it's hard to win in this environment 52-40. i mean, it's virtually impossible. i think what you are seeing is some basically republicans getting back in line with trump to some extent, and the hard thing for him is he has a hard ceiling, and in a two-way race, it's not enough. can i make one brexit point? >> please. >> brexit is a generic idea as opposed to a candidate. i think that comparison is not the same. when you go to the polls for brexit, you are voting on the broad historical sweep, what does it mean for the uk's place in europe, and trump, you are voting for a candidate and it's like would you vote for a third party candidate? lots and lots of people say yes.

if that third party candidate is gary johnson, that number is lower. >> chris? >> there are some that helped run barack obama's campaign that believe there could be a two to three-point hidden jump for donald trump, and i am not saying there is, but nobody admits it publicly and then whispers as you leave the room, yes, they are voting for trump, and it's still happening. do you think there's possibly one or two point hidden vote for donald trump out there, the people that are embarrassed to tell pollsters that the guy that has been on tv for the past week sexually harassing women or insulting them is the guy they will be voting for? >> yes, and i find it strange that i am saying it, because typically and you know this from having run for office, typically we have a secret 5% vote, that's

what you say when you lose. >> always nonsense. >> i noticed it and i am hesitant to put too much weight in antic dole actual evidence. there are people that don't want to tell their friends and don't want to tell anybody randomly calling them on the phone they are for him. yes, what i think is dangerous is to assume it's more than -- you said one to 2%, and i think that's the high end. and some are saying four and 5%, and some are talking about hundreds of thousands of votes, and that's unlikely to me, and if it's close, yes, i think there is, probably between a point and point and a half. >> mika, if you go in the friday beforehand, and it's like the carter and reagan race, the

friday before and "time" magazine said it was a draw going into that, and it's within the margin of error and anything is possible, but if it's five points or four points anything is not possible, because you have all of the early votes already going in, and so many of the early votes that have gone in have gone in under the worst environment possible for donald trump because the press coverage over the past two weeks has been horrific. >> chris? >> more so there's even more so the possibility of a point for trump out there because of the campaign he has run, and you are not going -- mitt romney, say what you want, but not a lot of hidden vote for romney because he ran as a traditional republican and the themes and the way in which trump has run suggests that possibility is

more because there's the possibility, and you may not want to share you are for him with people, but that doesn't mean you wouldn't necessarily vote for him, and i think he's -- as in everything in this election, he is a unique case. >> robert you have been handcuffed to donald trump and his people for more than a year -- >> that's one way to put it. >> reporte-- and the people in campaign, and do you know in the last couple of weeks, a change in his demeanor, and temperament, and has the reality of what is going on within the election framework, has that altered his behavior in any way? >> in ways, yes. when you look at not only the talk of brexit and you look at his speech at gettysburg and trying to get away from the

campaign of donald trump and being about change and articulating that, and that's a shift, and kelly ann conway has been in his ear, and trying to get people in his party, as pence said, to come home, and then there's the donald trump that talks about the accusers and the women with the allegations and quarreling with the press. you had trump saying in a couple interviews he's a little behind, that he has to not just be about donald trump, but has to be a populism change campaign in a bad way. and now to the health care law this morning, higher premiums and fewer options. health plans are set to rise on average to about 25% in the 39 states that use healthcare.gov.

1 in 5 consumers will only have a single insurer to choose from, since humana and aetna reduced their roles in the marketplace and donald trump seized on the news while campaigning in tampa last night. >> it's over for obamacare and hillary clinton wants to double down and make it more expensive and its not going to work. i called it when it first came out, and it's only getting worse. and not only for you, for the country, because our country can't afford it and you can't afford it, and 1 in 5 americans trapped in obamacare will only have a single insurer to choose from and, boy, are those insurers going to have a good time with you. >> wow. >> robert costa, it sounds like a lot of things republicans were saying from the moment this plan

launched? >> it's more of a traditional republican message and you couple it with this kind of change pitch trump has been making. it's still a narrow path to victory, and most people in the republican party are very wary of trump in his chances when they talk to you privately but there's a belief in the final two weeks, two weeks are left, if he can somehow energize republicans to come out in traditional levels the way he came out for mitt romney in 2012, and you get working class angst to drive out the vote in north carolina and pennsylvania, and there's a path, and it's a narrow one, and it's probably not entirely likely, but that's why trump keeps talking about brexit, and it's really a way of trump telling voters and the press, and it's not about trump anymore, it's about something bigger because if it's about trump it doesn't have the same sweep. >> thank you both. still ahead on "morning joe," donald trump was once again accompanied by an iconic

sports figure on the campaign trail, and this time retired football coach, and we'll get a live report. we're back here in just a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ onlyse who dare drive the world forward. the callac ct6. i spent ny years as a nuclear missile laun officer. if the president ge the order, we had to launchhe missiles. that would be it. i prayed that call would never come.

lf ctrolay be all i prayed that call would never come. that k these misses from firing. uld bomb the [ beep ] out of 'em. i want to be unpdictable i love war. i want to be unpdictable the ought of donald trump with nlear wpons scares me toth. it should scare everyone. i'm hillary clinto and i approv this message. (ee-e-ohum-oh-weh) (hush my darling...) (don't fear darling...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) n snoring (don't fear my darng...) (the lion sleeps tonight.) woman snoring take the roar out of sre. t another novation onl slp number sto

>> i think we are winning, despite what you here from the very dishonest people. >> these thieves and crooks, the media, not all of it, not all of it, but much of it, without the media hillary clinton would be nothing. when the people who control the political power in our society can rig investigations like her investigation was rigged, can rig polls. you see those phoney polls, and rig the media, and they can wield absolute power over your life and your economy and your country. they control what you hear and what you don't hear.

what is covered, how it's covered and if it's covered at all. but the media is not just against me, they are against all of you. like hillary clinton, they look down on hard-working people within our country. the media is entitled, condescending and contestimony shaw wus of people that don't share elitis views. >> hallie, what does the campaign have planned for today? >> reporter: a couple things, mika. it's battleground florida, both hillary clinton and donald trump are in the state for rallies this afternoon, and it's a must-win for donald trump, and there's acknowledgment from people close to the campaign, he has to do well and you saw him here yesterday where you played

some of the sound bites, and he got backup from the famed lsu coach here, calling november 8th kickoff. trump in tallahassee tonight as he is launching what you might call trump tv. and it's basically a nightly broadcast from trump tower with some of the trump's aides, and it's going to be on facebook live and it's intended to combat what you just played there, trump's idea of a rigged media or system, and there's a lot of speculation that maybe this is something he would do if he loses next month. trump said i wouldn't do it, but everybody -- i am paraphrasing, and everybody loves me, and everybody is talking about it because my people and supporters are so committed.

and there will be a newscast every day until the election, and he has two weeks left, two tuesdays left, and you will see him a lot in florida and ohio and pennsylvania, and here's where you will see him tomorrow, washington, d.c., and that's because he is spending the limited time he has left opening his new hotel in downtown washington, d.c., and he is dispatching pence to utah to do campaigning. guys? >> thank you very much. joining us now, nbc special correspondent, tom brokaw. good to have onboard. >> always good to be back here, and thank you very much. listening to donald trump here in the last several days is quite striking. we didn't hear any complaints from that him about the mediation, and now it's all our fault. i think that really represents

kind of his, if you will, his ability to -- he has not come up with any new ideas about how he is going to fix these things, and health care is not working but we don't hear from him on that, and the next couple of weeks when he should be showing vulnerability as a person, he's not going to do that. he's going to go back to his old form, and it's always somebody else's fault. we have not heard from the tax returns or from any number of other issues in any other campaign would be front and center. >> he does have a following, and they are looking for what is next as well if he loses. >> let's show the map, if we can.

if you look in the center of the country in kansas city, or in the state of kansas and oklahoma and then hard core trump states, he's leading like 25, 30%. he has a very strong following out there. montana, nebraska, those are big margins for him. that spells problems for hillary clinton if she gets to be elected president of the united states, and we'll have a deeply divided country, and more geographically in terms of population, and nonetheless, it will be the hard core out there, and oklahoma -- i don't think one county in oklahoma went for obama. >> i saw you looking closely at the concept of the evening newscast he is putting together on facebook. to what you are saying with these followers and the areas that have deep support for trump and deep feelings about what is wrong with their lives, and what

washington had to do with that, and what do you think the potential is for trump to have an impact in the media world himself answering to his own criticism? >> it depends on the margin at the end of the day. what happens on election day, if he loses by a lot, i don't think he is going to have much influence. if it's very, very close, that's different, but in those states, they still have a lot of powerful centers and representatives in utah and oklahoma and kansas and those other places, and it really is a matter of how they will arrive in washington when this election is over, because they have got -- their obligation is to represent their constituencies at that point, and if it's close, then does he become the icon of the republican party? these are the things that will be worked out in the next couple of weeks or so. >> let's take the current map for sake of argument and say

hillary clinton wins the election, and you are so good at looking at the big picture and what is the lasting impact of donald trump on american politics? what is the lasting impact of trumpism as we have been calling it, was it here to say or just a brief moment in time? >> there will be candidates in the future that will take the trump playbook and try to work with it, and he was unique and a television star, and he knew how to manipulate and he ran on twitter, and nobody had ever done that before. we will see more of the social media campaign, i think, in the future. with or without donald trump, the country still has big issues to deal with, and in my judgment the single biggest issue in the campaign is how do you stitch america back together again, and how do you make it whole, if you will, and doesn't mean if it will go one side to the other, and if i around the new president, whether it's hillary or donald trump, i would go back to the country after i am sworn in and start going to the places

where i am not very popular. >> listening tour, and she has done that before in new york state. >> i honestly think, a big part of the anger in this country is that washington is a union unto itself. they never get out of the beltway physically, cultural or intellectually, and they have to get out there and say you have got something to say. look, we have a lot of cities and states in this country that are doing very well. you take the cities like seattle, and los angeles, and miami, and atlanta, and what is their secret? they are working together. they are finding ways to put their cities back together and finding common goals. that ought to trickle up, if you will, i would think, to the white house at some point. >> tom brokaw. thank you so much. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> he says there is a secret tape out there, and as he calls it crooked hilary wants

refugees -- >> i am not with him today, and he's in florida, and i am here managing the campaign, but that's beside the point, that woman wants to increase syrian refugees come into the country and nobody denies that. >> steve kornacki presses donald trump's campaign manager about the tape. steve joins the table ahead on "morning joe." so wt's your ns? i got a job! i'lle programming at ge. oh iot a job t, at zazzies. (frids gasp) the app whe you put fruit hats oanimals? (ve that!sp) guys, ll be writing code atelps machis communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you (pne vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) can do dogs, hamsters, ineaigs... u namet. (proudly) i'mi'llheinturbessform the way i ppower ciesat.k and i ca. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends o ahh) i camakeospi run more i put a tefficiently...t. thissn't a competion! "just wanna see if my score changed..you wanna check yours?"

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up next, going hunter for voters still making up their minds and who live in hillary clinton's backyard. he goes to the woods of pennsylvania where the democratic nominee used to spend her childhood summers. stay with us. we'll be right back. li. transports you into the rld the imag, and you can actually tchl the screen.. li. u n't do that on a m.

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the process is rigged. this whole election is being rigged. the whole thing we've been going through -- and i hate to say it -- but the whole thing we are going through, bernie sanders who was a rigged deal, and the whole thing is one big fix. it's one big fix. it's one big ugly lie. it's one big fix. >> that was donald trump on the campaign trail telling supporters he believes the entire election is being rigged, a theme he's been on for many

months now. jacob soboroff who recently spent time in pennsylvania where trump's rigged message may be backfiring on him, is that right? >> yeah, so we were in philly, but we talked about it on the show before, if trump doesn't perform in the t in pennsylvania, and the turnout is not high like you were talking about this morning, he will have a big problem, and we went somewhere of significance to hillary clinton and asked, and so take a look at this. >> donald trump basically can make this area trump country and that's what we are here to find out. i see a lot of trump signs here? >> yeah, i don't know what the deal is with that, and so --

>> is this trump country? >> it appears to be. i think i might move. >> i gather you are not voting for donald trump, then. hey, chickens. can i ask a quick question. is this clinton territory or donald trump territory? >> this whole road is trump territory. >> really? >> up and down this road you will mostly see trump signs, and they really do take care of those signs. >> you have decided who you are going for yet this year? >> i am jill. i wanted bernie in, and i don't trust hillary and i don't like donald trump. >> reporter: you are going for hillary? >> yeah, and it's sad, and it's the lesser of two evils and i have seen going on.

>> is that your trump sign up front? >> i have a better one at home. >> why trump? why so many trump signs here, what is it about that guy? >> he says it as it is. look at his business. a good businessman. >> are you going out to vote on november 8th? >> probably not. >> i am not going to vote because the people are going to get trump in, but it's not going to go that way. >> you think the people are going to vote in for trump but trump won't be the president. >> you think it might be a rigged election? >> definitely. >> trump says the system is rigged, and some of his most diehard supporters like this guy with the naughty sign says he will not go out and vote, and he says the system is rigged but why go out anyway. >> they are active with their signs. >> yeah. >> you saw the highest concentration of jill stein.

>> yeah, she could win that half of electoral vote. >> the last guy you talked to in the piece, he has two signs, clearly for trump and yet he is not going to vote for him because he thinks it's rigged? >> because donald trump thinks the election is rigged. >> stepped on his own foot, donald trump, did. >> and donald trutrump poisons f his own supporters and they don't show up. >> in connecticut, you get on some back roads and there was a lot of homemade trump signs out there, people just trump-pence, 2016, and it was a stencilled trump sign. >> i don't mean to minimize it, because when i have been out across the country, you see way more trump signs in my station

than hillary signs, and people are passionate, and making their own signs and if they don't show up, it doesn't matter. >> good to have you on set. >> good luck with the dodgers next year. >> thanks. >> see you on sunday. >> closing the loop. >> yeah, full circle. in the family here. the republican party is fractured and before anybody rushes to a plan to rebuild, there are perhaps a few questions that should be asked about what might have gone wrong this election season, and we will dig into those questions next on "morning joe." ers go up, ers go up, despite your bt efforts. but what if you could turn things around? what if you co lo yr mbers? discov oe-daily invokana. it's t #prescribed 2 inhibir that wor to lowea1invokana. kana® ia ll used along t that wor to lowea1invokana. anexcisesignifantly wer blgar

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joining us now, senior fellow at the ethics and public policy center, and in a new column for the national review, pete list questions the republican party must ask itself following the election, and he has a piece, this is's much discussion among republicans and particularly for those who have long counted ourselves as never trump, and about the future of the republican party. question number one, does donald trump represent, as former indiana governor mitch daniels

asks, an be a oration. to use an analogy, is what we are dealing with pneumonia or cancer that requires chemotherapy and may not pass for a great long while. >> that's one way to put it, i guess. >> an observation i had during the fall, donald trump would say something that we would be very critical of, for instance, a muslim man, and we talked about how un-american that was, and how it's going to help him in the polls, and then not to be out done by that, ben carson would say some outrageous comment about muslims.

>> yeah, good question, and that is our party, and it's the things that trump did that helped primaries. every time he said these things, whether it was a muslim ban or attacks on women or the mocking of the reporter. >> or denying he knew who david duke was, the ku klux klan. >> that was, for those of who who have been republicans all our lives, deeply troubling, because it showed the republican party had not just a political crisis but a moral crisis. look, iening think trump is going to lose. part of the answer depends on how badly he loses. i think he's going to get crushed. the gap is going to det larger, not smaller between now and election. he doesn't have a ground game. i wouldn't be surprised if there's another video coming. then there's going to be a big fight about the future. one of the questions, as mitch was asking, is this an anomaly

or a trajectory. as you were asking earlier, willie, how much of this is trump and how much is the phenomenon we call trumpism? and i think there's no question that if and when trump leaves the scene, that's going to make things better. but will he leave the scene or become a political irritant and will trumpism continue and how does the republican party rid itself of it? >> peter, we have seen trends since the emergence of the tea party of a branch of the republican party that doesn't really want to govern. it's not just the moral issues we're talking about. a sense that actually we're the anti-government party. now, that blow everything up attitude has been there before trump and it presumably will carry on existing after trump. who is it that could come in as a leader of that party, reach out to the kind of working class voters that we have been talking about this morning, reach out to the people who don't even think that government should exist at all? is there a person that can, you know, encompass all the elements of the republican -- it doesn't

seem to be paul ryan at the moment. >> no, it doesn't w. look, one thing is sometimes these are snapshots in times and things change. there was a labor party in england before tony blair. sometimes if you get defeated, you change. there are young leaders. ben sasse of nebraska is good. mike lee is very good. paul ryan is still, i think, the intellectual leader of the republican party. i hope he's going to be around. he should be. i hope he can take control. if this element of the republican party which was much broader and deeper and more pernicious and more volicious than i ever imagined, if that doesn't go away, the republican party isn't going to recover. i said moral rise, i meant in the sense you were talking about. this is the party of anti-reason. you remember this, joe, back when ronald reagan won in 1981, pat moynahan said i'm sad the republican party has become the party of ideas.

it's now the party of anti-reason. it started with sarah palin in 2008 and it's continued. unless he gets that straightened out, it's not going to win national elections and it shouldn't win national elections. the question is post-trump, post-election, which republican party is going to prevail. >> you were talking about saying things in a primary that hurt you in the general. those two things don't work, and donald trump never really changed. we had some of the smartest republican strategists sitting in that very seat over the last couple months and asked that question of how do you get someone tloum a primary who can win the general election. a lot of people said john kasich would have buried hillary clinton, that fine, but he won one state, his home state, in the primary. how do you make that swing? >> you have to persuade voters and try to convince them that winner matters. this may be a fever. we go back to medical analogies, that has to pass, but republican primary voters are determined to election people who are

monstrous figures, who have in the case of donald trump, i think, clinically disordered personalities, there's a limited amount of things you can do. there's a lot of complaints about the republican establishment. the republican establishment never would have nominated donald trump and they probably would have won the election. because of mental habits that have agained edeveloped in the decade or more, this is a kind of primal scream and this is what happens -- >> we have been doing this. we lost five out of the six election. this will be 6 out of 7 in the popular vote, if went up losing. how long does our party need to sit in primal scream therapy and when do they get -- let's figure out how to win. >> right. i hope it's going to be this time. i would aggregate. mitt romney and john mccain, whatever you think, were not primal screams. trump was taking a step back from where we were. >> that said, though, mitt romney, and we said it, i said it in 2011, and i said it every

day. you have somebody like glenn beck that goes out and says barack obama and a racist who hates all white people. i say that's the sort of thing that whips people into a frenzy and gets a president shot. mitt romney, you need to speak out about it. we saw mitt romney, i love mitt romney. i loved him before he ran for president. but when he ran for president, he wouldn't speak out against the hatred and the bigotry that people on talk radio were spewing every day. he would not speak out on -- talk about self-deportation. he stopped being mitt romney because he thought that's the way i have to act if i want to win the republican primary. >> that's a legitimate critique. there were certain constraints that republicans have so they don't offend the base. i was part of the conservative movement that felt like pre-trump, that the republican party was out of touch with middle class and blue collar voters and they had to come up with a new agenda, a reform

agenda, a whole reform of institutions, wage subsidies, a whole series of things we felt could have worked, higher education. when do republican candidates talk about higher education reform? they never do. it's a huge issue for middle class republicans. my hope was this would be an election where that would happen. i think that was the right agenda, fwut came at the wrong moment. instead, they decided they wanted trump. >> thank you so much. great to have you on. >> thank you, pete. >> still ahead, the state of the race exactly two weeks to election day. we have some new numbers this morning. donald trump's campaign manager says he has a, quote, couple of paths to 270. we're going to take a closer look at his campaign's battleground map. plus, chris jansing and steve kornacki join the conversation. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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did you know that the last time the cubbies won the world series, it was 1908? >> i did know that. that's a long time. >> long time. 1908. >> mm-hmm. >> in 1908, our president was theodore huxtable roosevelt. did you know that? america's top export was fruit roll-ups. and the number one television show was the fresh prince of bel-air. starring the $6 million man himself, lee majors. >> this is very interesting because clearly you have been following baseball even though you passed away in 1998.

>> 1998. >> yeah. >> holy cow, i'm dead. >> will ferrell promoting his role as late chicago cubs announcer harry caray. >> how great was that? i love this harry caray. >> miss that karkcharacter. >> it's tuesday, october 25th. >> hotdog! >> game one. >> game one tonight. mike, how do you feel? obviously, everybody, the cubs are the big blaring spotlight. they're the story. they haven't won it since, what, 1908? >> right. >> but you look at cleveland. they've got just as compelling a story. they haven't won since 'freight, is that right? >> gene bearden beat the red sox, indians into the world series. they win it in 1948. the cavaliers get their rings tonight. they moved up the ceremony. cleveland indians, game one begins at 8:00.

great for cleveland. great to see these two midwestern teams in it for at least five games, cubs. >> this is a no-lose situation for america. usually there's one team you don't like. whoever wins, it's good. >> and you look at the year cleveland has had and the fact they hosted the convention and every one of us who left cleveland, just blown away by how great the city was. it was, growing up in the '70s, it was had mistake of the lake. cleveland basically was what pre-thatcher london was, pre-thatcher england was. >> you didn't have like three-day weeks and no electricity. >> okay, it was worse there. that is true. >> and a coal miner's strike. >> there's that. as you can see, mike's here. >> so you guys had margaret thatcher. we had mayor dennis kucinich. and the lakes caught on fire. >> katty kay and on capitol hill, former ted cruz campaign

communications director, now an msnbc political contributor, rick tyler. >> we have some breaking news. nbc news/survey monkey poll just came out two minutes ago. >> mm-hmm. it shows donald trump and hillary clinton a little closer. the survey monkey online tracking poll shows clinton with a five-point lead. 46% to trump's 41%. garre gary johnson at 7%. trump gained one point since sunday. in a two-way race, it's 50% to 44%. the new cnn/orc poll shows clinton at 49%, trump five points behind at 44%. both candidates gaining two points since the poll was last conducted back on october 2nd. notabl notably, before the "access hollywood" tape and the last two debates. gary johnson dropped four points to 3%. jill stein at 2%. and in a kwo two-way race, clinton has a six-point advantage, 51% to trump's 45%.

moving on -- >> i think -- >> going to do wing states. go ahead. take a look. >> let's stop there. obviously, willie, if you follow the media, if you follow certainly journalists on twitter, this race is over. you know, yesterday, people were comparing trump's numbers to walter mondale's. >> i think it's okay to say it looks that way from some perspectives. >> what i'm saying is that they're trying to figure out how huge the land slide is going to be. at least i have been saying, a lot of people have been saying around here, that there's going to be an actual tightening. when you look at the polls that had 12, 13 points, we have two polls that came out that said it's a five-point race. five points is still a landslide, but if you look at trend lines, certainly, it could be tightened up. >> i think the best thing you can say for donald trump is after the "access hollywood" tape, the bottom didn't fall out

completely, if we're being generous. the abc poll had 12 points, on the high end. five, six, seven points looks to be the lead, which is a big lede two weeks out. more importantly, if you look at the swing states, he's doing well in north carolina, pretty well in florida. he's close. leading in ohio, but still, pennsylvania, nevada, there are so many swing states where he's down so big. colorado, that it's still going to be very, very, very difficult for him to win. now, he does have an issue he can use if he's smart, which is this obamacare story about premiums going up 25% in certain plans and choice skrihrinking. all things predicted by conservatives. >> coming true with obamacare. >> if he pushes that button in swing states, maybe it impacts the race. >> that's a couple of the headlines. let's look at the swing state polls. monmouth university poll shows a deadlocked race in north carolina. clinton at 47%, trump at 46%. johnson down to 4%. and in battleground nevada,

seven points separate the candidates in the las vegas review journal poll. clinton with 48%. trump at katty kay, this is do trump's problems. the problem, the problem is it's not enough for him to win north carolina. it's not enough for him to win ohio. it's not enough for him to win all the swing states everybody is looking at. he's got to win all of his states, all that lean his way, and all the toss-up states. so if he does all of that, which is possible, but loses nevada, he loses. i mean, and actually, he has to get all of the swing states plus he's got to pick up new hampshire and have of maine. >> i think if you're looking at this race being over, which some people are talking about, even looking at the potential of hillary clinton not just winning but winning big, which is kind of ironic given that she's one of the most unpopular candidates in american presidential history going into the race, but she's looking at the prospect of a

very big win. it's those numbers in nevada and new hampshire that has to worry the donald trump campaign. because if he's that far behind in nephnev at this stage, and you're right, willie, i hear it out on the campaign trail a lot. i'm going to go straight down to orlando after this to go to a trump rally. i'm sure he'll bring up the health care premiums. it's devastating for middle class families how much premiums have gone up. he can make traction on that, but he has to make such big numbers in places like nevada. it's very hard to see how he gets to that 270. >> mike. >> well, i think there are three elements that are still alive, still very active in the campaign. one is turnout. what's the turnout going to be after this dreadful campaign? many, many months of voters listening to this daily. the second element is going to be voter suppression. is that going to have an impact on the election. and the third element is the down ballot, what's going to happen with the widening in the race. specifically, you mentioned new hampshire. kelly ayotte was hanging in there neck and neck with maggie

hassan, the governor running for the senate seat, until about a week and a half ago, when sud n suddenly, trump just collapsed and hillary clinton is now up, depending on what polls you look at, between eight and 15 points. kelly ayotte cannot survive that kind of a margin. >> here's the thing, again, we're two weeks out. it's two weeks from today, right? >> mm-hmm. >> two weeks. >> two weeks from today. >> that's number one. number two, it's 2016. one of the most tumultuous years yet. and number three, we've seen polls go up and down and up and down wildly. >> we'll just -- >> i'm not saying that this race is over. it's hard to -- i mean, i'm not saying that donald trump has a great chance of winning this race. we're two weeks out. >> what's your sense of turnout? >> i don't think it's going to be as good for hillary clinton. i could be wrong. now, robby mook is saying they're doing better than '08 and '12. if that's the case, that's m

massi massive. >> landslide. >> a remarkable win if robby is right, it would be a big win. yesterday, i think i saw something that the congressional black caucus was saying if you want us to get excited, because we're not excited right now, but if you want us to get excited, you have to start talking to us. there's just -- i find it hard to believe that they're going to be able to find the excitement that obama had in '08 and '12. >> to dispel the notion that an electoral college victory is slipping from donald trump's reach, his campaign distributed this map yesterday. it designates pennsylvania, colorado, and new hampshire as toss-ups. >> colorado is, if you talk to the campaign, this is the state that baffles them the most. >> right. >> because internal polls actually show for some reason them closer.

now, external polls are showing actuallyclipten up comfortably, but i saw a poll last night from an independent pollster that had it much closer. >> and they have arizona, utah, and georgia as locked in for trump. on msnbc yesterday, campaign manager kellyanne conway said there are hidden clues to detecting their path to 270. >> when you look at the electoral map, watch and see where we deploy our major assets, governor pence, mr. trump, our paid media campaign, other opportunities we have, our supersurrogates going out and keeping their own schedules soon. that's our road map. i share it privately here. whatever you see is shared publicly may be different for lots of reasons. but we have a couple different paths to get to 270. we're actively pursuing them. >> well, rick, the fact is that they don't have a lot of different paths. they have one path, and that is they've got to win absolutely

everything that's a toss-up right now, and they're still at 266, according to the a.p. they still have to win new hampshire, which is going to be a stretch. other approaches suggest they have to win new hampshire and maine, too. and you know, they're saying georgia is a lock. georgia is not a lock. they're saying arizona is a lock. arizona is not a lock. the fact is if this race is really a five-point race, trump needs to spend the next two weeks picking up another two or three points to make the swing states close enough for him to put in his column. >> yeah, nationally for sure. look at it another way. all clinton has to do is pick up any swing state, nevada, iowa, arizona -- >> north carolina. >> yeah. >> florida. any one, and it's over. >> just one and it's over. and so there's about 150, joe, electoral votes that are considered toss-up.

65 of those are in georgia, texas, and arizona. that's 65 of those three combined. and those are all states donald trump should be winning handily. he's not. he has to pick up about 112 out of the 150 toss-up delegates. she needs to pick up eight. so it's really -- it's very difficult to see how donald trump could possibly pull this off. with two weeks to go, i don't know. health care might be a big issue. with two weeks to go, it seems unlikely he can close the gap. >> one of those things that can break either way. it can either break the last weekend, trump's way, and we have a closer way. >> that's a big break. >> it's just not as big of a break as the media wants people to think. >> really? >> it's not just as big of a break. if you have a five-point -- again, i was -- i was here at the beginning of september, and i asked everybody if they

thought the race was over. oh, yeah, the race is over. the race is over. the race is over. like a week later, trump was, like, it was a draw in colorado. then everybody started freaking out and jumping out of windows because it looked like trump could win. and then he shot himself not in the foot but in every extremity. i mean, the undiscipline gets worse. it has not gotten better. his own campaign people -- >> the more he's on display, the worse he gets. the worse he's feeling about the polls, the less disciplined he is. >> all i'm saying and i can't believe this is novel because i will get killed on twitter today for just admitting what is the reality. you have two weeks. you have a tumultuous electorate, people who loathe hillary clinton. they're scared of donald trump. >> and you have a guy who has literally broken through every expectation. exceeded. >> and is running the most

undisciplined campaign in the history of american politics, so much so that kellyanne conway seems to be debating her own presidential candidate. >> and the vice presidential candidate. >> and the vice presidential candidate is debating him and everybody is debating him. he was supposed to go to gettysburg and this was supposed to be his break. the moment where he was going to pivot to issues in gettysburg, standing on that hallowed ground and he was talking about suing women for sexual harassment. this is a guy -- >> in the first 100 days. >> yeah, in the first 100 days. so he's within five points. do i think -- i don't -- what i was going to say is it either breaks his way. let's say he's at five now. breaks his way three or four points over the next two weeks which wouldn't be unheard of, and we have a closer race. or probably more likely given his lack of discipline, willie, it breaks the other way and suddenly people are going, we're going to be following texas late

into the night. it's really all up to him, but he's not listening to anybody. so it could be one of those things where we're seeing texas goes democratic for the first time since i guess '64. >> i think the two x-factors are the obamacare premium care story. that's real to a lot of people, and wikileaks. there are two weeks left. we don't know what's going to come out. is there stuff in there that makes people considering voting for hillary stay home. maybe not even vote for trump but stay home. consider where they are today. mike pence is in utah, two weeks ahead of election day, the republican vice presidential candidate is in utah defending that ground because a third-party candidate, evan mcmullin, might win. donald trump is in florida with a quick break to cut a ribbon in the all important swing district of washington, d.c. at his new hotel. >> i would add a third element, the get out the vote operation of both campaigns. my understanding is the trump campaign's get out the vote operation doesn't exist.

the clinton operation's is fast, mobile, huge, in place now for months in each and every place. >> to some extent you're seeing that reflected in the early voting with the early voting numbers out of north carolina where we're getting a preponderance of democrats voting. that might be an indication of the african-american vote, right? we're hearing stories about the african-american vote is not excited and needs more attention from the clinton campaign. now you have congressman from the caucus asking for more resources for the down ballot candidates. but look, if you're seeing high numbers of democrats voting early in north carolina, that's some indication of the way that state is going to go. >> still ahead on "morning joe," we'll get a live report from chris jansing. she's live from the perennial critical battleground state of utah. steve kornacki joins us as well. first, from drawing board to debate stage, the latest wikileaks revelation on how the miss universe line of attack came to be. but first, bill karins with a check on the forecast.

bill. >> have and have nots. we're looking at cold temperatures in the northeast this morning. some windchills still in the 20s in a few spots. very cool. it will warm up slightly this afternoon. how about the beautiful weather from phoenix to cheyenne, wichita, denver, dallas, new orleans, and nashville. warm earth for you. here's the next storm. this will start late tonight, bring rain to areas of wisconsin, minnesota. rain tomorrow, chicago to detroit. this purple is about an inch to an inch and a half of rain. and then it's going to head to new england. that's when it's going to get more interesting. it looks like it's just going to be cold enough in a few spots for snow come late wednesday night into thursday. and the areas with the best chance of getting that will be the higher elevations around binghamton, albany, new york, and farther to the north. you can see the snow on the map as we progress it through, right through central new york and some of the mountains in northern portions of vermaunltd. the forecast for today, some of the showery weather continue, san francisco, sacramento, stray showers in boise, too.

middle of the country looking very warm. we mentioned great weather. and of course, tonight, world series starts in cleveland. typically it could be very cold this time of year. this is bearable with a temperature of about 47 degrees. partly cloudy. tomorrow night looks a little more iffy with some of the rain in the area. hopefully they'll still get the game in. temperatures in the 40s and rain, that's not exactly baseball weather. we leave you with a shot of where we're going to play, progressive field. more "morning joe" when we come back. ta are you?

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we can't go back to the years of devastating cuts to public education. so vote yes on prop 55. prop 55 prevents $4 billion in new education cuts, without raising taxes on anyone, and with strict accountability. budget forecasts show if we don't pass prop 55 big cuts that hurt our kids are coming, and california will suffer budget deficits all over again. so vote yes on 55. because it helps our children thrive. barack obama is the nickelback of presidents. obama couldn't negotiate getting a whopper without pickles.

@woodstockdave. thanks, dave. barack obama, bro, do you even lift? well, i lifted the ban on cuban cigars. that's worth something. president obama will go down as perhaps the worst president in the history of the united states, exclamation poin point @realdonaldtrump. well, @realdonaldtrump. at least i will go down as a president. >> hillary clinton's use of donald trump's controversial comments about a former miss universe contestant, her weight, was allegedly a plan that was months in the making. that's according to one of the latest data dumps by wikileaks which released e-mails allegedly hacked from the personal account of a clinton campaign chairman, john podesta. a 157-page research document purportedly e-mailed to podesta

in december revealed the clinton campaign had discovered a number of damaging quotes by trump regarding alicia machado nine months before clinton used them at the first presidential debate. that included his discussion about machado's weight and the line, so this is someone that likes to eat. the data dump also allegedly revealed the clinton team began to map out their attacks against trump in february. in an e-mail to communicationsp asked when the campaign will start going after trump. i know you can't look past bernie and march primaries, but who is in charge of the trump swift boat project, johnson wrote, referring to a series of attacks in 2004 by the swift boat veterans for truth against john kerry. added needs to be ready, funded, and unleashed when we decide. these e-mails have not been authenticated by nbc news, but the clinton campaign and u.s.

intelligence officials have blamed russia for hacking the e-mails. >> it's fascinating though to look at the campaign and the look at the different characters in the campaign. i have to say, it's also very surprising that actually hillary clinton comes under i won't say attack, but is critiqued by at one time or another, almost every member -- >> within her campaign. >> -- within her campaign of being sort of tone deaf. >> low energy. >> low energy. not being effective as a campaigner. overly scripted. i saw one last night just by chance that painted robby mook in a really good light. i don't know if you guys saw this or not, but cheryl mills was doing what cheryl mills does, which is hide stuff. obfuscate. try to make hillary clinton look as disingenuous and corrupt as humanly possible because that's what cheryl mills has been doing for the clintons for years now,

and robby mook e-mails podesta and says what's going on? we had a process set up. we have to be transparent. i'm, of course, paraphrasing, but he's like this is just drama. instead of going around in circles and obfuscating and hiding things, let's be transparent here because it's going to cause problems. and it's just a great time suck on my part. we're wasting everybody's time. i looked at it and said he sounds like the guy behind closed doors that everybody told us he was going to be. just a no-nonsense campaign manager. >> look at that wikileaks story there. frankly, if that's all -- you talked about there could be another wikileaks dump between now and the election. if that's all they have, they have got nothing. what is that? that's textbook campaign strategy. you get a story. you plan it. you research it and decide when to roll it out. there's no story there. there's nothing there. >> the other element to it is so

they have this plan that was put together in december, according to wikileaks. is assange a moron, they release it now? why didn't they release it, if they wanted to impact the election, before the debate? >> i think the most damning thing in there is for progressives. if you look at the way they talk about bernie sanders and his supporters, they call him a doofus, they call his supporters as naive. that's the only place i can see in the margins that affects it. >> even that tells us, mike, who -- i mean, all they're telling us is what we already know about hillary clinton. she's not a progressive. she is a moderate sort of new democrat neocon. >> and the wikileaks reference you just had about robby mook proves something else. that robby mook, transparent, very competent, young, pulling together this vast operation with access to huge campaign funds. is not and has not been a part of hillary clinton's inner

circle for 15, 20, and 30 years. >> right. >> thank god. >> yes. >> thank god. those people need to go away. they have done nothing but get her in trouble. coming up on "morning joe," four years ago, mika branded the race a seinfeld election. an election about nothing. well, this year could be the same thing. new polling is showing nearly half of all americans saying the race is dealing with issues they just don't care about. >> nothing. >> nothing. >> that story when we continue. ? they are. do i look arte ah, little. reaking monow, are u vestg? welli've been doingsomeesea let me intdu y to our broke how much does he charge? don'know. okay. uhdo you get your fe back if you're not happy? (dad laughs)

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coming up on "morning joe" -- >> everybody says, oh, we can't cite those. we can give lots of air time to accusers. we can give untold amounts of air time to stuff like that, but we can't, somehow -- >> are you saying there's in imbalance between the amount of time the media stands on the rasmussen poll versus women who have accused a presidential nominee of a major political party of what amounts to sexual assault in some cases? >> steve kornacki pushes back at the trump campaign's claims of a rigged media. steve joins us straight ahead on "morning joe." ouof youson. ge! a nucturer. ll that's why i dug is out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer

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but as i have mentioned before what i don't do is at like 3:00 a.m., i don't tweet about -- >> you don't tweet. >> people who have insulted me. i try to sleep so that in the morning i'm actually ready for a crisis. >> when you watch the debate and watch donald trump, do you ever laugh? do you ever actually laugh? >> most of the time. >> most of the time. >> why do you think so many people don't trust hillary clinton? >> you know, a lot of this just has to do with the facthat she has been in the trenches, in the arena for 30 years. and when you have been in the public eye that long, and, you know, in politics, folks go after you. and they're trying to find a weak spot and any mistake that you make ends up being magnified and ginned up, and there are

commercials around it and a whole narrative begins to build. that has an impact on people. >> that was president obama last night on "jimmy kimmel" keeping up his criticism of donald trump and talking about the challenges hillary clinton faces with getting some voters to trust her. joining us from salt lake city, nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing. utah has not gone to a democratic presidential candidate since '64. but this year, it seems to be in play for hillary clinton. what are you hearing, especially in terms of early voting? >> reporter: well, early voting in person is going to start here where i'm standing in salt lake city. this is the only location in the county, but if you have told me a year and a half ago that two weeks before election day i would be standing in battleground utah, that the nbc experts would have it as a toss-up, i would have told you you're off your rocker, but here's what's going on. take a look at a sampling of

recent polls. it's motjust a two-ray race. it's a three-way toss-up between donald trump, hillary clinton, and yes, evan mcmullin. what's going on? let's start with donald trump. in this deeply red state, who should be winning, that 2005 audiotape really hurt him. consider that his vice presidential running mate, mike pence, is coming here today, two weeks, again, before the election. the last time pence was here, he was the guest of senator mike lee, who has since disavowed donald trump. then you have hillary clinton who is seeing an opening, talking to her folks last night. they brought in five new people to bring their staff up to six, not exactly a deep bench, but enough to make some trouble. and then you have mcmullen, who a recent poll shows the majority of people in the country have never heard of, but he's a byu graduate. he has an ivy league business degree. he worked at the cia for 11, 12 years, and he's someone who caught a lot of attention here. only on the balin 11 states, but

he could win. so take a look at what the early mail-in ballot is showing, that the democrats, and this is the same thing i saw in recent days in georgia, when i was in nevada yesterday. 16% of the voters here in this county are registered democrats, but 22% have already returned their early ballots. 42% are republicans, 36% have returned their ballots. as the republican state chairman points out, that's a 12-point gap, and he said quite honestly, we're going to need to drag them to the polls. there is a lot of distrust of donald trump. mcmullin getting some of that. last night when i was talking to the clinton folks, what they said to me is we could come in first. we could also come in third. when these doors open in 90 minutes, it's going to be awfully interesting. we never would have thought it. >> wow. chris jansing, thank you very much. so, in north carolina, where early voting is also under way,

hillary clinton has opened up a seven-point lead. 46% to 39%. in the "new york times" up shot sienna college poll, a month ago, clinton and trump were tied there, 41%. joining us now, msnbc anchor and political correspondent steve kornacki. also with us, executive vice president of public affairs at psb research and the co-host of the top rated podcast, the pollsters, margie omero, good to have you on board. you're finding people are stressed about the election and families are being torn apart. is that an overstatement? >> no, you know, that's the obvious, but there's also a lot of polling on this. people feel stressed, majorities across age groups. people feel stressed about this. and i have been studying walmart moms, a swing voting bloc with republican pollster neil newhouse, now for several years. what they told us in the summer is they're unfriending their friends on facebook, they're not talking to their friends or parents or siblings or

neighbors. pew has done polling on this. other folks are showing that people are arguing with their spouses. we wanted to dig a little deeper into this. tonight, we're doing another wave of focus groups with walmart moms. we live stream them for political reporters. they are swing voting moms who have kids under 18 living at home. >> and where is that going to be out of? >> we have one group in charlotte and one group in las vegas. battleground states with battleground senate races. and in the charlotte group, we are talking to couples who disagree. >> oh, boy. >> we're bringing in the whole couple, not just the walmart mom, but the walmart mom and her spouse or partner to see how they discuss the election. what does it mean to live with someone when you disagree about the campaign? i think in order to understand where we go next after the election, we really need to hear these discussions about how people are sorting out the election, because i'm worried that this contentious environment is going to be hard to put behind us. >> willie, we talked about this

before. we talked about 2004 after bush won. and new york city, all of manhattan area, west side, was on suicide watch. you said something very funny. you said you grew up around people saying that george bush was an evil demon and the most hateful human being on the face of the earth, and then you went to vandy. you said, oh, wait, the guys i played basketball with, the guys that are my friends, they kind of like bush. i don't think they're evil. >> i think exposure to people who don't think the way you do is a good thing. i lived on the upper west side as an adult, but growing up -- >> this has happened before. >> getting to know people who think differently than you is a good thing. you're talking to these walmart moms who broadly hillary clinton is winning women, we know that, by a pretty significant margin. is that reflected in this subset of women? are they leaning toward hillary clinton? >> we're going to see, after the election, we'll do a poll to see where they shake out. women overall, they obviously

lean clinton. walmart moms themselves are going to be very diverse. they're diverse in terms of race, ethnicity, where they live, in terms of party. married wim are going to lean more conservative. that's been true for a while, but walmart moms include married and unmarried moms. there's going to be a range of diversity, but they're going to lean clinton given what we see nationally. >> steve, what are you seeing right now in the polls? we had the nbc news/survey monkey poll out that shows five points. yesterday, cnn poll, five points. a bit surprising compared to the 10, 11, 12 points we have seen. we had a north carolina poll that looked pretty locked down for hillary clinton. we had one yesterday that had it as a tie. what are you seeing right now? >> that carolina poll, that's the biggest margin you have seen in that state for hillary clinton. it's been much closer than that. in the other ones, she has been ahead slightly in most we have seen in the last month. the national average, the average of everything together,

the one with clinton up 12, the ones that trump talk about that has it as an even race, if you average them, it's 5.8 points. that sounds about right to me. i don't think it's a 12-point race. i think trump is behind. i think his electoral path reflects that. what trump would need over the final few weeks in the campaign is some kind of, whether it's an event or some kind of reassessment that he can get people to make that would bump this thing along nationally a couple of points. if you could do that, i think that would probably lockdown a lot of these red states that have kind of come loose, these sort of traditional republican states. >> georgia, arizona, utah. >> then we can start talking again about is there a florida, a north carolina, a nevada scenario for him. i think he needs two tracks to be operating here. >> it seems like there's three waves of states. the first ones you should have, the georgias, the arizonas, the withdrew taws. if he gets past that, then you go to ohio and iowa. that seemed like he had those locked down a week or two ago that's tight now.

if he gets past that, then it's the north carolinas and the floridas. >> inway i look at it, i put carolina in the first group, in the red state. lockdown the red states and you have 206. get the romney states and you're at 206. then can you lockdown iowa, i think it still looks good in iowa. ohio, he's still very slightly ahead. if you take the average out there. nevada, he's probably fallen behind, but get those states, get that congressional district of maine, get florida. do all that, you're at 266. so then you're in that, you need one more. is it new hampshire, wisconsin, pennsylvania, is it -- that's where it gets tough. it's tough to see. >> to get to 266 is asking a lot. >> that's where the path would be. >> all the early voting, the numbers that chris just showed, he would have to actually do even better with the voters who haven't voted yet, given the deficit in some of the early voting. >> we had a lot of stories out of 2012 that romney won election day in many states and lost the

state because barack obama did such an incredible job mobilizing. something else we're seeing this year, too, is mika and i tell the story of growing up in new hampshire and seeing an obama rally. people were flat there. there was no excitement. we walked away scratching our heads. >> what's going on? >> that was kind of nothing. it was a week or two out. and then all the romney people were saying, 30,000 people in pennsylvania. we can feel it, we're going to win. poor tim kaine had a rally in west palm beach, 30, 40, 50 people. it just doesn't correlate, does it? >> i feel like there's a lot more, you go to the trump rallies and there's nothing like that, except maybe a bernie sanders rally in the primary. in terms of the numbers of people who come out. the enthusiasm i'm wondering about if we're going to look back and say there was something to this, an enthusiasm among democratic voters and suburban voters who used to be republican

voters and flip over, an enthusiasm to stop trump. is that what we're going to see is there, not so much for hillary but anti-trump. >> steve, thank you. margie omero, thank you. >> earlier this month, nbc reported the cia was readying a possible cyberstrike against russia. we'll go inside the code war. keep it here on "morning joe." russia. we'll go inside the code war. keep it here on "morning joe."

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two massive stories. >> massive. >> gigantic, we didn't get to. huge. >> number one --

>> proves there's media bias. the fact that we haven't talked about this yet proves there is media bias, so lean in. lean in. to your tv set. and wake up grandma, and bring her downstairs. this is going to crack the election wide open for trump, because media bias. go ahead. >> it's lois' birthday. >> one. >> happy birthday, lewis. >> come on, now. >> he's not even here. 31. >> all right, also, we didn't show, because they weren't ready yet -- >> this is the big story. >> the photos from nick barnicle's wedding. with meg. nick and meg. so where was this? in middleburg? >> middleburg, virginia. >> my gosh. you and ann put on good weddings. two in three months. >> yeah. >> so these two newlyweds are off and running on their life.

congratulations and good luck. >> thank you. >> now that we got to those headlines. >> anything to say about that, proud dad? it blows the election wide open. >> it's over. the wedding and then the election. >> and you're proud about that. ahead, the u.s. is getting some key help to decode a series of high-profile cyber hacks, and help is coming from a russian ex-pat. that story is next on "morning joe." seme. n't stare at me.. see me. n't stare at me.. see me. psoriasis know is just something that have. until i find whaworks. w't p discover cosentyx, a different kind of medicine f moderate to severe pluesoriasis. ovefind clear or mmost clear seople 8 out of 10 people saw 7 skin clearance at 3 months. while the majority msaw 90% clrance.e beforetarting, you shoulbe tested for tubercusi an ireased risk of iection

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the way every time russia is brought up, they say, oh, trump. what do i have to do with it? i have nothing do with russia, okay? i'll give you a written statement. nothing to do, but they tie me into russia all the time. they like to tie me into russia and they say such bad things about putin and then they're supposed to negotiate with putin. why would he do this? >> why indeed would donald trump do that? >> joining us now, editor at large for town and country magazine, and a contributor to esquire, vicky ward. her latest piece for esquire is about the russian ex-pat who is leading the fight to protect america against hackers. tell us about this person, vicky. >> hi, mika. >> hi. >> so this person is dimitri alperovitch who is the cofounder of crowd streak which is a cybersecurity firm hired by the dnc and dccc to investigate their hacks. and he was the guy who they

asked to call out russia as the bad actor. and i think what's interesting about his whole back story, which i get into, is the role that the private sector plays on shaping our policy in this kind of wild wild west of hacking wars. >> what role do they play? >> well, first of all, they really push for what they call attribution, which sounds simple. you want to call out the hacker. and yet, in this kind of weird world, there's a culture of shame which extends actually even to the government. the chinese hacked us for five years before we sort of put in laws, started indicting people. it had to move from the declassified -- from the classified realm into the declassified realm. the problem with russia was that they hacked us so close to the election. for obvious reasons, the government were very nervous,

and all the people i spoke to in the reporting of my piece in the government knew that russia was behind the hacks. but it was considered very difficult to call russia out. but if you don't call russia out, you're then putty in vladimir putin's hands. you're playing into his narrative. the cybersecurity world say most emphatically that you have got to name names and then you have to not worry about the technology. you have to worry about the psychology. you have to play chess. >> the psychology is that president putin, as you suggested, is kind of pointing the finger at americans and showing them what they can do. the white house said we will responds in a time and manner of our choosing. what are their options? >> i'm not a russia expert, but i think the cybersecurity world would say the clever thing to do is really look at your adversary

and figure out how to hit them where it hurts. that may not be a technological tit for tat, because after all, the russian -- there isn't a democracy. their elections are arguably already rigged. so what is it that would hurt, that would be a real threat to vladimir putin? but at the same time, i think dmitri's point at the end of our piece, you can't let this escalate sort of cold war style. i think we have to be very clever. interestingly, dmitri was the guy involved in playing a large role in stopping the chinese hacks. it took us five years to do that, and we did that in the end not -- it was a series of things. we indicted five members of the pla. we also struck an agreement with china that they had to stop coming in and stealing from our private sector. but at the end of the day, it was a sort of -- it was actually

when the chinese premier came for a state visit. he didn't want to be embarrassed. he thought we might actually place sanctions on china. that's what hit them where it hurt. we have to do something similar, something strategic, something psychological, not technological. >> in the remaining time, hillary clinton said att the debate the other night to donald trump t is russian intelligence. american intelligence has said as much. does dmitri have any take on whether or not it is in fact russia that is in bed with wikileaks on these? >> that he didn't discuss, that he didn't talk about. >> but he suspects? >> a lot of people i spoke to certainly think there's obviously a direct link. >> all right, vicky ward, thank you so much. we'll be looking for the new article in "esquire." and that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> hi, there, i'm stephanie

ruhle. this morning, much to cover. up or down? donald trump finally admitting he's trailing. >> i guess i'm somewhat behind in the polls, but not by much. >> but then he claims he's in the lead. >> we're leading, number one. >> folks, we're winning. we're winning. >> as he launches what looks an awful like trump tv. >> get excited to be bypassing the local media. >> while crisis spike, obamacare premiums skyrocketing, up as much as 22%, and no surprise, donald trump and the gop are pouncing. >> it's over for obamacare. and hillary clinton wants to double down and make it more expensive. >> and how about a billionaire battle this morning? sir richard branson, the brash founder of virgin airlines, blasting donald trump. >> do you conside