championship ring across the street from the progressive field. a great night to be in cleveland. >> what a year for cleveland. they have the cavs and the indians and the browns. thanks for the preview. that will do it for this hour. mtp daily starts right now. >> rising halt insurance costs could be the cure for struggling down bal at on republicans if the top of the ticket can get his message straight. >> is donald trump muddling what should be a late campaign lay up on oa care. >> as the candidates push the early vote, who has the edge two weeks out and could trump cause marco rubio an election for the second time this year. this is mtp daily and it starts right now.

>> per good evening. 14 days left believe it or not. welcome to "mtp daily" less then two weeks until election day. republicans got an october gift basket after a staggering 22% hike in the benchmark obamacare premium. it is something else to talk about. donald trump struggled to take advantage of this obamacare news. here's how he attacked the issue while addressing employees at the golf club earlier today. >> i can say all of my employees are having a problem with oba obamaca obamacare. what they are going through with

health care is horrible because of obamacare. >> they do not get their insurance through obamacare, they get their insurance through trump's business which they clarified to reporters minutes after trump made the comments. >> 99% of employees are insured through our insurance. maybe a few are through obamacare, but they pick up almost 70% of the premiums and the employee only picks up about 30%. it's a good deal for the staff. >> trump himself did correct that error on fox. >> i'm at trump national doral. we don't use obamacare. we don't want it. >> his version of a correction. anyway. can the news turn the tide? using the news from talking

about all things trump. >> he is a badly flawed candidate, but if he were president, he would sign a bill repealing obamacare. >> when you open the health insurance bill and find your premiums are doubling, remember that mccain strongly opposes obamacare. >> whether you are a senate candidate, the nominee or president on how you will fix the problem is the hardest part. progressives say the law is failing because it's not single payer or socialized medicine. the white house said the law has not been fully implemented and it has been doomed from the start because it choked competition. the republican nominee held just about every position on health care that you can think of. at one point he talked about single payer and then the idea that you have to cover everybody or at least those that need it the moft. let's just he he evolved on the

issue. let me dive into the policy implications. a dynamic duo that we had before, the president for research on equal opportunity and with the adviser to mitt romney and the senior correspondent who specialized in health care and reporting. the good news about both is that they can't disagree without being disagreement. jonathan, since the law will get battered here, where do you fall at why we are at the point that it appears as far as the exchanges are concerned, they are not working the way they were supposed to. >> i would qualify that by saying obamacare is a big ambitious program and some things work and some things aren't. they have been successful at helping people to get health insurance. millions of people signed up for coverage and even no despite the headlines about the increases for next year, a lot of people

can get affordable coverage on exchanges and it will be good coverage and comprehensive benefits. at the same time we are having problems. you have to remember when we talk about obamacare, we talk about one program. for each state and the district of columbia. we are seeing particularly in some states insurers found they are not attracting enough healthy people to offset the cost of the sick. they are pulling out of markets and face serious problems and the worst that you are hearing about is arizona where only one insurer and premiums are jumping. >> i want to point this out more. let me put up this graphic here. it looks like almost half of 20 plus states have seen at least one insurer pull out.

they only have two insurers and they have one dominant insurer. is there a way to fix this without suddenly forcing younger healthier people on to the exchange? >> there are. we talked for years and sometimes on your show about the regulatory aspects of obamacare that have driven up the premiums. it's important to focus on that. the congressional budget office in 2010 predicted that 21 million people would be in exchanges. the law is falling short because the premiums are so high. that is driven by reg aulgzs that they impose on the market place that make insurance more expensive. >> the regulations that you are talking buyer a minimum standard of coverage and to meet the minimum coverage that the law is requiring, insurers are hiking premiums. >> this is a misnomer in the sense is that it's a base line that is high.

because it is high, what they have to cover exceed what is a lot of people need in terms of health insurance. if you are junger or healthier, you are like i don't go to the doctor that often. why am i spending health insurance they don't use? >> is it that simple that if they lowered the standard and allowed a basic didn't force some of the bare bones mandatory coverage that the law forces, if they let that go, would you see more competition and would it be that simple? >> it wouldn't be that simple. the main goal would be to make the plans better. the plans being solved, they had huge gaps in coverage and wouldn't cover maternity and mental health. also insurance companies can turn away people who were sick. if you have a preexisting

continue, we will turn you away. it ended all that and that was a regulation. nobody talks about the regulation imposed. they did make insurance more expensive. to take the regulations away, it would get cheaper and it would get cheaper for younger healthy people who account get insurance and it would be more unavailable and expensive for people who are older and sicker and people who bought policies. you have the mental health episode and end up with the huge bills. >> not necessarily. you can have a more market oriented exchange. they are free to price plans more fairly for those who don't have the consumption. subsidize the people who need the help. could you actually say and

jonathan i am start with you. would premiums be lower if there was no obamacare. nothing can be done as long as the insurance industry is operating as a free market. >> i don't know that i put this on -- everybody loves to blame the insurance industry, but a lot of the problem we have here is the high cost of health care is baked into the health care system. the prices we pay reports and the drugs. the affordable care act, there is another part of the law that tries to address that in different ways and you talk to liberals and your point here is right. health care in the united states is expensive. when you give people insurance, it's going to cover the bills and it will be expensive. >> unless you do fee for service. you go totally for a fee for service. is that the only way to bring

down cost? if we operate this way, we will see the increases whether it's the government involved. >> we have to reform the way we pay for tealth care. instead of insurance companies and the government. on this question that you asked about how health care premiums would have evolved if not for obamacare. it's much higher as a result than it would have been otherwise. for the people who are buying insurance on their. >> what is the biggest legislative fix that a president hillary clinton could get done that might stop this sticker shock? >> look. i think most liberals if they had their druthers would make the program more generous and add to the subsidies and add without of pocket cost. the key is can you find some

kind of bipartisan cooperation on this? a little bit before we were talking about changing and making it possible for younger people to pay less and older people to pay more. that's not a reform most liberals like, but you can imagine a deal with conservatives and liberals and getting a piece of one or the other and a normal health care system. the real question going forward s there that political environment where like in the old days, elements cats and republicans can say let's do a little hereof what you want. we will do a little bit and make technical fixes and that could make a difference. >> i would love to get into that aspect of it. i get you. i don't know if there is that type of bipartisan cooperation, but let me ask you this. if there is a president trump which would mean a republican senate and house, what would a new plan look like in a year? >> at my new think tank, we have published a 100 page plan called

trend setting obamacare so you can look at the details, but does donald trump have the commitment to see reform through? it's hard and it usually fails. i'm not optimistic that a grand replacement will happen >> some republicans will have to accept obamacare? >> they should. if their response is this is the law of the land. >> who says it can't happen. thank you both. i appreciate it. coming up, what we know about who is winning the early vote and how both candidates starting to feel the heat for the ties to donald trump. stay tuned. support prop 51.

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the two men who want the job and the man who has it. here's vice president joe biden talking about all of this rigged election talk. >> let's say he gets it. 38 to 40% of the vote. at least two thirds of that vote knows it's not rigged. you will have people though, you always have them. whatever their background. they are going to believe it's rigged. we always had that element in every election. the difference is we never had the head of a great party saying that it is rigged. what would be a problem is that in fact if you have a gore-bush election, god forbid, and he said it's rigged on the short end, i don't often agree with charles krot himer, but he wrote a hell of an article about how

fragile democracy is and you can't play with it. that should be disqualifying in and of itself. >> hear more from the vice president with playing "hardball" at 7:00 eastern and at 9:00, the democratic nominee, tim kaine joining rachel maddow and the republican nominee mike pence will go on at 11:00. we will do it every other hourment it's a special night of vices. number two. will be back in 60 seconds. bl 6x whitening*á i acally really like the 2 steps. step 1, cleans. step, itens. evy time used th together, it felt like leaving the ntt ofce. crest hd. 6x cleaningá, whining*á ulswitch to crest hd ov what i wausinbefo. es healthy, beautiful il for le.

i bought all the framerk... wire.. and plants need to give my shop... a face... counting down to election day, it is election month. nearly million people have already voted in the election nationwide either in person or by mail. republicans are more likely to vote early by mail, but the democrats tend to vote early where it is available in person. here's what we know. the 12 states we are tracking

most closely, more democratic affiliated voters cast ballots in nine of them for trump and the gop candidates like north carolina, nevada and ohio. in north carolina early voters are outpacing republicans 49-27, a big gap compared to four years ago. in nevada where early in person voting started on saturday. democrats have a 14-point lead. 48-34 according to the nevada expert. that's similar to the first three days of early voting in 2012 when barack obama ended up winning the state. florida according to target smart, republican o failiated voters are outpatsing democrats with absentee ballots. in 2012 the gop had a-point advantage, but when you look at only the in person voting, democrats have an advantage here. 46-37.

explain what you are seeing now compared to four or eight years ago. >> it's remarkable. republicans have always had an advantage in vote by mail. it took us into the second week of early voting in 2008 and 2012 to catch up. as of about ten minutes ago, you are 7,000 votes behind republicans. two million people have already voted. we are well ready of where we were. >> when you see the numbers, we have great data from your firm. you tracked the most important swing counties. we will show that data in a minute. you are aidate at guy. you are seeing what we reported. you are getting other numbers. what concerns you and has you

hopeful. >> there are 800,000 people who voted than before. the data gets skewed from the standpoint that the old reliable numbers that in person represents more democratic votes and absentee by mail is more republican. those numbers get softened a little bit and you have to look at the electorate at large. 3,000 fewer democrat votes at this point in nevada than in the four years ago. i think it's too early. we have eight million votes cast, but i think there are a couple of pair time shifts. one, the energy is not there. frankly it's not there on either side. that is one i think by product of what's happened in the election. number two is the democrats put an enormous push in the early voting because the electorate map depends on it. the reason why it depends on it

is they want to say the race is over. they want to say this is it. the number one predictor of who will win is who people think will win. if you talk to republicans, they are demoralized because they think trump will lose. the data is not the case. there is a clinton advantage, but for this to be over is just not the case. >> let me go specifically to the critique that i heard from other republicans who said hey, it's a democratic operative that is pushing voters to vote early. it's just shifting the vote. what do you say to that? >> it's fair, but not for the reasons jeff talked about. you do it so to get to the win goal shorter, if our win goal, 4.5 million votes and we get three million of them before election day, it's easier on election day. it's nothing about enthusiasm. look at broward and dade county. both had record turn out and

strong democratic counties. 30% of the voting so far are among people who are new to the loss or who only voted in the last three or four elections. showing off early for hillary clinton. >> is any of this gap attributable to the fact that the trump campaign has not been emphasizing early vote as much as the romney campaign? >> we are slower to adapt to the party in general to be honest. if you take a look at a state like iowa where the republicans let five days in early voting, it is reflective of what we are seeing in the numbers. i don't think there is any big surprises and that's what it means. very close races in all the battle ground that are tied or within the margin of error. >> i am going to shift and steve, you will love this stuff. i'm only going to show three, but we could geek out on some of this stuff. you have been tracking different

counties and weathers. i will pull up three. virginia, florida, and nevada. your most recent tracking had clinton up eight. if you are up eight in loudoun, that's a recipe for winning. is that why virginia is off the map? >> this is in the clinton corner. if they are spending money, pull out quickly. that state is done. >> i want to get him into this conversation. you have got hillsborough and the counties of the country. you can make that argument. two times bush and two times obama. you have at 46-44. let me get your reaction to that. >> we carry it by six points in 2012. our polling has it better than two. i will say yesterday is 49-35 in terms of first day of early voting and it's better in terms

of the voters and getting more hispanic and a mexican population there. that's in florida. >> when was the last time someone won hillsborough county and did not win state-wide? >> the last time a republican went to the white house like that. calvin coolidge. >> let me put up nevada, wa show. trump up six. this fluctuated. you had him up double-digits over the summer. is it good news for trump, average news or bad news. >> that's a critical county and we watched that county on election results. 800 samples in the counties. we are getting a ton of data. if i were running the campaign, i couldn't do it. what happened as you see that

things are starting to return to a norm. presidential elections have a systematic approach and we are starting to see it come back. at one point with no college degree for men. that has come back to either and he was getting crushed by college educated whites. what you see is more normalcy being returned to this very erratic campaign. this means we are in for a long night on election night. if they are plus six in a state that we have him winning in nevada, that will be a long night. this is not a done deal. >> the final question to you on this early vote. when should we say wow, this is over? when would you sit there and say is it another week's worth of data that looks like today? what would be the correct way of looking at it? >> so in 2008, we have pretty

much won the state. we win with 450,000 vote advantage. by monday, we get to the first weekend of polls and how it trends out. if we see anything like yesterday, by monday we will have a good sense of where we are headed. >> goodidate to geek out with you. we will do it again. let me bring in the panel. the senior editor for national review. democratic strategist. steve, are you ready to spike the football? >> are you where shale is? >> you guys were totally geeking out. that was a great expedition of what's going on and how to look at counties and make progressions. i'm not ready to spike the football, but i think by next monday we might have the answer. >> when do republicans have the heart palpitations?

yesterday made them gulp, but they are not recognizing them every year. it has been an entire year. >> if your heard is beating, you forget to know that. >> it's the one on one point. this moans by election day proper, he doesn't just need to close the gap to win to get ahead. >> it's one of the reasons why why mitt romney thought he won in 2012. he lost florida before the election day came.

>> shouldn't today be the best day republicans have had in six months? you would think on paper. two weeks before election day. they have to admit they have an average of over 25%. what would you say to that? >> you better hope trump is not your presidential nominee. >> the best skas that voters in senate battle ground states have tuned out and they have a hunger to hear a policy debate and that affects their lives. this is a gift of an issue and something for them to talk about. he doesn't understand what it is. he doesn't know if they are eligible for it. that is distracting from the

issues and there have been so many missed opportunities for the republicans to cycle. >> by the way, a lot of people saw this coming. i can't. >> i have head his plan, but i am not confident that he has. it's not something that he devoted. what will be a problem for it is the people who are making you

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are you mathed out? first here's the market wrap. >> thanks, chuck. we had markets closing lower as the dow dropped by 54 points and the s&p loses ands nasdaq has 26. they settle most of the claims stemming from the software scandal. nordstrom is hiring more than 10,000 temporary workers for the shopping season, about 3% fewer than last year. general mills said it will introduce a limited elision line in january. it will come in two flavors. carmel crunch and thin mint. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide.

both presidential candidates have been in florida today and patrick murphy was on stage with clinton in cocoa beach. notably absent from trump's rally was marco rubio. he endorses trump, but his own attacks on trump were haunting him a bit. here was president obama last week on the hits. >> i agree with the senator, a republican, who a while back said we can't afford to give the nuclear codes to an erratic individual. by the way, you know who said that? marco rubio! >> rubio hasn't trailed in the polls since being nominated. the most recent poll has him up two points. he is running against one of the more flawed democratic candidates and reports surfaced that he was not truthful as a

small business owner and overstated his experience as a cpa. those stories broke the same week as the senate deadlined in florida. it didn't give democrats a chance to find another candidate and the filing deadline was the next day when the story hit. just today, cnn has a report detailing the business ties with donald trump. something murphy himself denied on the trail. we rank the ninth most likely seat to flip in a nine-state survey. it is on the competitive list and a wave could be strong enough to sink rubio. noining me now from miami is the senior writer and frankly our best authority on sunshine state politics. welcome, sir. >> thank you for having me. >> this is a straight senate race in this respect. on one hand, the party pulled out. they are not spending new

monobehalf of patrick murphy. innocent, barack obama and hillary clinton now don't step into the state without talking about the senate race. i was always careful when people said this is notecessary and acknowledging it's a coat tail state or bust. fair? >> that's about right. the big problem that you are seeing in top democratic circles is chuck sumer made the calculation that you have to pull out the money to spend it in other states. it's cheaper in the other states. what you are seeing is patrick murphy was promised 16 million more in ad spending than he is getting. now he is out there and the pig problem that democrats are having is they are told that his very wealthy father could just stir up another check.

that doesn't look like it's not going to happen and they are hoping that mama clinton can drag him across the finish line. >> the bigger question is, everything is working against patrick murr except the poll numbers. he hasn't put this race away. is that a marco rubio problem or election dynamic or the landscape itself? the state of florida and nobody is going to win a race for a federal office by more than to six points? what is it? >> it's a donald trump problem. if the republican his any other candidate aside from marco rubio, it's a good bet that patrick murphy would be in front. he is situated to be able to survive a blue wave. how much of a blue wave can he survive? he is bilingual in the hispanic community. patrick murray is not well-known. in addition that, marco rubio's home base is miami-dade county.

the most populated in the state. it's a county that the democrat needs to carry by big margins to survive a losing by bigger margins. right now they are tied. if you spot the republican being tied in miami-dade and among hispanics and the two data ints cram each other. the republicans are more likely going to win. >> let me ask another wild card. with barack obama and hillary clinton talk about marco rubio's criticism of trump and not pulling away from him now, doesn't that oddly help with voters who think well, that's right. rubio doesn't like this? it's actually obama and clinton saying they don't like trump. doesn't that help and not hurt him? >> i'm done with guessing how it hurts people. we shattered the looking kblasz.

so far this seems to be working. >> what's the one thing you are going to watch before rubio will survive about that. if the democrats are only ahead marginally by maybe three points in the preelection ballots and if the polling holds, i think rubio does cross the finish line. if it looks like they are ahead by about five, remember those are the hard core partisans. if the polling remains as it is, it will be a tough road for patrick murphy and again, a lot of democrats around here are going to blame chuck sumer for making the calculations and not playing florida and not

following through with the spending here. going into the other states. you remember this, not only does it hurt patrick murphy. he can challenge her in four years. >> it is. you know who chuck schumer is going to blame? the people who did the initial recruiting of patrick murphy. that is going to be a separate battle. good to see you. >> thank you. >> we will dig deeper in other close races ahead in the lid. keep it here. an oningight on broadway is kind of magic. i'm beowulf boritt and i'm a dway set designer. ...with thisdea four towersnx that were fire escapes...p... ...esstially. i'll bld a little model in photosp and d these... ..etailsn with a pen. i could nedo that with feelike mjob is... ...imaginaon to fillin all. ...to put out there stugh detaspur aiences... thisindows pc is amazing, haviight at my finger..tips is .

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precision can be get confusion. we will start with the states that lean democratic and put them in light blue and solid democratic dark blue. so far, so good. how about the solid republican states? dark red. we will add those to the map and the lean republican states. we will put them in pink. others prefer light red. however you want to describe that color. now you start to see, things are getting a little messy and hard to read. let's not forget the battle ground states. we put them in gold. we spared you the seven-color lean, likely, and solid scenario. have you had enough?

maine split the votes by congressional district. it is likely hillary clinton will win one district, but trump could win the other. w50e will tripe blue and gold. same thing in nebraska. trump is likely to win state-wide. we will strike nebraska red for trump. gold for the toss up second congressional district. confused yet? sorry. we are not done. evan mcmullen, the empty candidate who is surging in utah. it leans green, i guess. if he pulls ahead and utah turns green. idaho, i guess we should put it in light green. we could add another color. bottom line, there you have it. every state makes perfect sense and the result is accurate. as you can see, we end up with maps that are unreadable. for that we apologize. unless you have about a half hour to study it o. that note, we are open for suggestion.

watch these messages. we'll be right back. firwill be fully refued. have en impactete cond, we'll proactivivy send you a confirmation for any new checng, savings, or credit ca account you open. third, we've elilinated product sales goals for r retail bankers. to eure ur intereses are putuct salfirst.ls we'rtaki action. we're renewing ourommitment u.

news/survey monkey. we have it very steady. clinton, 46. it's essentially been the same, by the way, gary johnson sitting at 7. stein at 3. a number that's very slowly going away. donald trump hasn't been a fan of polls in general that don't have him leading. but he does like the investor's daily business poll. their trackers had trump in the lead since december, but today even that poll shows clinton has taken a lead by a single point. we're not big fans of it, we don't show it very often, but you can see, if that's moving against him, some problems. bring back the panel. ramesh, molly, and steve. ramesh, we're in this weird place in this campaign where everybody thinks they know what the results are going to be. but by the way, there's still two weeks left of voting.

so, you know, how do you prosecute this, if you're the trump campaign? >> well, try to figure out the strategic thinking of the trump campaign is often difficult. and so, i don't know exactly what they're going to do. so far, everything they've been doing seems to have this kind of paradoxical quality, where trump is really good at driving the story. we're talking about generally, what he wants us to be talking about. however, he doesn't pick that message to actually serve the interests of his campaign, strateg strategically. so, for instance, we're talking about the rigging of the vote. but if his people start thinking that the vote is rigged, they're less likely to show up. and i think we're probably seeing that in the early voting already. >> but molly, strategically, today is one of those days, as good as they can be, they're in the state where early in-person voting is beginning. so they're not letting clinton own florida today, which is

smart. his spin is basically, don't give her the state by herself on early voting opening day. and they're trying to do obamacare. >> they're trying. the problem is that at some point, it's too late. we talked about early voting earlier. so many americans have already voted. and will have already voted before we get to election day. i really think it's reached the point where it's very difficult for him to turn around the trajectory of this campaign, to actually stop being behind and start pulling ahead. instead, he seems mired about where he is. a lot of people seem to have shut the door to his candidates. and we just don't see very much evidence of a lot of people who didn't want to vote for hip changing their minds. >> steve, let me put up some other state polls that are out there. here's one, north carolina, the three-way race. this is "new york times," siena college, they've got clinton up 7. north carolina to me is the battleground state of the year and this is the hard of the culture wars. by the way, i should throw up the governor's race there.

they've got cooper, the democrat, up 6. senate race, 1-point lead for the senate race there. >> we were talking about this before we came back on the air. it's sort of like lava is running down a hill away from donald trump and they don't seem to have a strategy or an ability to stop it and shift it the other way. if this was a good day for donald trump down in florida, i shutter to think what a bad day is. because he went out there, he was given this gift on obamacare. whoever wrote that bill to have the premiums reset two weeks before the election should be taken out and dealt with, and it was a democrat, but donald trump had this thing served up to him, but he swung and miss. mitt romney would have never made that mistake. george w. bush, never. this guy has never been ready for prime time and he shows it every single day. >> let me make the conservative argument against trump on this and against romney. they say, romney was the godfather of obamacare, and donald trump's instinct is

single-payer. so he the doesn't know how to run against it. some day, the republicans will nominate someone who knows how to run against obamacare. isn't that the argument someone will make? >> maybe 30 or 40 years. >> they've never had a pure policy wonk that knows how to make this argument. >> that's right. there were people who would have been able to, but they all lost the primary. we may know the outcom in terms to have the presidential race, but one of the things those polls are showing us, we don't know how bad it's going to be for the republican down-ballot. does burr end up losing in north carolina? >> i'm not sure i'm of steve's mind yet. i think there's a chance the bottom could fall out. but i don't know if the house gets fully into play, because where democrats have to win house races, trump is strong. >> structurally, it is so hard for democrats to win the house. and i think this is such an unusual election that we may see an unprecedented amount of ticket splitting by republicans who don't want to vote for trump, but still consider themselves republicans and still want to vote. the real problem for republicans

is if their voters get so discouraged, they don't turn out at all. >> that's the unknown in all of this, the turnout game. steve, thanks. we'll be right back right after this with our own version of "the truman show" stay tuned. withy derate to severe crohn's disee,. ...i was aays searing for ways to mana msymptoms. i thought i had it covered. then i realizemanaging was l i wado wh i fin told myocr, he said mira was for peoplelike who have tri othermedicatio. t still experice thesympms he said mira was for peoplelike w moderattoevereermedicatio. crohn's disease.

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woman: ...to prevent new education cuts... man: ...and keep improving california's schools. woman: vote yes on prop 55 to help our children thrive. in case you missed it, truman beat dewey back in 1948. and ever since then, truman has been the patron saint of candidates trailing in the polls. so no pig surprise that

republican vp nominee mike pence went there with rush limbaugh. the only surprise is that it was about a week earlier than normal. take a listen. >> you know, my role model in all of this, donald ump and i have talked about it, is harry truman in his campaign in 1948. i know you're a great student of history. but with a similar deal, you had a poll -- remember, the truman and dewey race, rush? >> oh, yes. >> you had this glamorous guy named dewey, who the political establishment all loved, the media all loved him and truman wasn't having any of it. >> anyway, points to pence for dressing dewey up a little bit. he went on to reference the famous photo of him waving up the "chicago tribune." later, mondale told the crowd, quote, the tide is turning in the election. it wasn't. perot did it in 1992, two days before the election at a rally in california. and in 1996, dole appeared

multiple times in the final days with the famous 1948 newspaper headline. so what do all three of these people have in common? they lost. that's the thing. you know who brings up dewey/truman in the waning days of a presidential race? usually those that end up losing. uh be we are about to see something that hasn't happened since 1948. the cleveland indians are in the world series. so as jim carrey might say, you're telling me there's a chance. that's it for tonight. "with all due respect" starts tonight. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to colin powell and a surprising endorsement of hillary clinton, in the news business, we call that dog bites man. >> woof. >> on the show tonight, a poll stroll, an e-mail squeal, and bill