we will unveil "wall street journal" polls from two of the most important swing states. nevada and new hampshire. you will see them only on mtp daily with chuck todd and it starts right now. >> if it's wednesday, the republican split is on full display as the new battle ground map continues to take shape. what the intersection of the republicans past. >> i get asked on a regular basis. why aren't you running this year? >> finished cutting the ribbon, i am off to north carolina. >> the gop's future. plus, how the brand-new battle ground numbers play in the fight for the control of the senate. what undecided voters say they need to see from the candidate in the final home stretch to election day. this is mtpdaley and it starts

right now. good evening. i'm chuck todd at election headquarters. mainstream conservative and trumpism is everywhere you look. it was in d.c. on fox news and it seized the battle ground map which is where we will begin with breaking news. we have brand-new poll numbers from the "wall street journal" maris polling partnership. it is of likely voters in two key battle ground states. new hampshire where clinton opened up a nine-point lead in a four-way race predebate. she led by just two. let's look at nevada. clinton and trump are in a dead heat. last month trump held a lead and jill stein is not on the ballot

in nevada. another split in the party. new hampshire is a more educated state and less college educated whites. that is a very competitive state. the numbers on the state that could decide party control of the senate and whether it is boom or bust for the gop candidates after both of them, the two nominees there abandon trump. we begin with a fascinating 24 hours of jarring and sometimes bizarre coalition between the past and present of what constitutes the republican party as they battle with the identity crisis. we started in washington with this bizarre world of split screen of trumpism and mainstream republicanism. romney and trump. the current nominee promoted the

opening of his new hotel. the last nominee both to the chamber of commerce. an organization that leans republican, but believe it or not endorsed clinton this cycle. i don't know if you noticed that one. mitt romney took a shot at trump which we will show you. we are seeing that clash with the donors as well. they pulled together emergency bailout cash for senate races. they are not spending it on trump. they are only giving it to six candidates in the hopes of protecting mitch mcconnell. if you want to see an explosive face off between trumpism and republicanism, a trump surrogate newt gingrich lashed out at a prime time anchor on the issue of trump's character. >> if trump is a sexual predator -- >> he is not a sexual predator! you cannot defend that statement. i'm sick and tired of people like you using language that is

inflammatory that is not true. >> excuse me mr. speaker. you have no idea whether it's true or not. >> you took a position. >> what i said is -- >> it is not fair megyn. this is what people are upset by. >> your defensiveness speaks volumes. >> you are fascinated with sex and you don't care about public policy. that's what i get out of watching you tonight. >> by the way, trump apparently loved it. >> by the way, congratulations, newt on last night. that was an amazing interview. we don't play games, newt. right? we don't play games. >> gingrich was defined when he spoke about his confrontation. >> i believe the media in this election is the worst in modern history. >> on fox news? >> everywhere. >> you can debate the future of the republican party all day, but divided parties don't win

presidential elections and by the way, they usually don't do well down the ballot either. we were expecting to be speaking to a senior adviser to the trump campaign here, but with 25 minutes notice, we were told she was cancelling and the campaign had nobody else to replace her. we will start with the panel and we are apologizing for not having a trump voice here. >> nbc news and msnbc. a republican strategist who can't wait for 2018. >> can't wait. >> i will put you in this position here. we are seeing this clash and the question is, is it a stylistic and what is this clash? it is working on the national

level, but it's really anti-republican. that's why they are not supporting the nominee this year. and they are not going near them. and don't turn around and say i'm not going to win because the establishment is behind us. that's making excuses because it making them feel like that right now. this is a ticket that is struggling with women voters. >> that's for sure.

he is saying fox news is the mainstream media. they brought donald trump to the floor. fox news conservative brought him to the floor. not republicanism that is being promoted. she has been, but fox news in general is the thing that gave birth to trump. >> it was sporadic and megyn kelly was not. it is o'reilly, hannity, fox and friends that. is what i think gave trump his platform. >> that's true and inside they are coming into the real world.

they are not really making it there making the brand with women. without making any part of a racial and ethnic minority. either side. on the economic front and trickle down which -- >> we had a mike issue there. sorry. >> tax cuts and trickle down. that is not good for people who are poor, people who are struggling or millennials and that sort of thing. where does the party go? >> it's interesting you bring this up. i want to show you comparisons of how trump is doing versus clinton compared to how romney did. we had trump versus romney. the problems for trump is he is lagging romney on all sorts of college educated. trump and clinton are tied, but

romney won this group by 13 points. non-college educated and trump up 20. romney won it by 26. trump is under performing on the white vote. had hillary clinton will do better with whites than barack obama. who would think that was a possibility this this campaign? >> we could do an autopsy and look at it and say wow, if we just attract more women to the party. we did that. u but what's interesting this this cycle, both candidates's unfavorables that are upside down. they are unfavorable and untrustworthy. that is affecting the way the numbers skew out. with the down bals on race, there is no such thing. people went to the polls for mitt romney and there is a difference saying he is not barack obama. they went to the polls for barack obama. they didn't say it's not the other guy. >> there was some enthusiasm

issues with romney and other parts of republicans. by the way, donald trump is winning obama voters at least in the state of iowa. no way the numbers are what they are if people that voted obama are not voting trump. >> that's the popular vote. >> that speaks to that group of voter. >> it's a whiter state. >> most people would agree if democrats had a more appealing candidate at this point against trump it would be a blowout. do you buy that? there has been the idea. >> she is a lot stronger than people are giving her credit for. >> joe biden would be a lot bigger. >> knows believe that. >> the democrats were hurting because they had a terrible time for a variety of reasons. they need -- even going forward, a younger more dynamic

candidate. pin their hopes on that. they have all the issues and the demographics favor the democrats. >> and isn't the problem the establishment republicanism is no longer a viable point of view? the face of the party is not in favor of what they are in favor of. cutting taxes on the wealthy and free trade and looser policy on immigration and things that the autopsy recommended. that's not where the party is right now. >> i don't know if it's the base of the party. more republicans do not vote for trump than voted for him. he won 14 million votes and how many votes is donald trump going to get? around 60 million. clinton i believe will get more. that's less than 25%. that is a core base, but that's not where the party is. >> and they would have had mitt

romney with the republican nominee running again for more shot. here's a little bit more. highlights at the chamber. >> i get asked on a regular basis, why aren't you running this year? i ask myself that now and then too. i don't shrink from saying america is the greatest nation in the history of the earth. no other nation had the strength, the capacity, and goodness of heart to do what america has done. >> is that brand of republicanism going to be able to work in 2018? that's the question i have. i don't know. >> republicans probably both sides. everyone will draw the wrong conclusion. republicans are going to draw the conclusion that trump was a poor candidate and hillary clinton doesn't have a mandate because if it was anyone else but donald trump, they would have won. the trumpers and the republicanism has been rejected. let's go back to the paul ryan mitt romney view.

that is probably the wrong answer. democrats will say they have a complete mandate and this is a huge rejection of trumpism and the democrats have several problems they haven't addressed. >> here's what donald trump and how he analyzed the loss by mitt romney. number one, he said the democrats didn't have a policy, but what they did have going for them is they were not mean-spirited. romney had a policy that was me ni cal. let me go with another one. romney lost all the latino vote and asian vote and everybody who was inspired to come into this country. donald trump, 2012. he may say the same things about himself. >> he should say the same about himself. >> he will step on his own message and come up with something else. >> go back to the question about governing. the answer really does lie with

the marg. that is the whole game changer. whether the senate states or republicans, there are ways to get things done. he is proven to be the leader if he has the majority. >> i'm going to pause this. i will dig deeper with nevada and new hampshire and how the latest numbers impact the road not just to 270, but the battle for control of the senate. there is a potential silver lining and the republicans and silver is the key word. there is a fight to see if they can actually limit those senate laws. we'll be right back.

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more voters who are voting in arizona and georgia 13 days out. this just includes party registration and it's about the best time you can get a voter enthuse vamp for both candidates and both parties. coming up, we will dig deeper in the maris poll in new hampshire and nevada. striking differences in where the race is standing in both places. we'll be right back. my moderate to severe chronic plaque psoriasis

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welcome back to "mtp daily" two critical states, nevada and new hampshire may be small on electoral numbers, but they matter a lot. here's a look at the top of the ticket in new hampshire where hillary clinton opened up a lead of nine points. 45% to trump's 36. gary johnson at 10% andill stein at 4%. one of the states where the two third party candidates are not cratering. having a big impact in new hampshire. a much tighter race between kelly ayotte and maggie hassan. she led by nearly double-digits the next time. clearly this trump effect is

having an impact on her. clinton and trump are tied in nevada sitting at 43% in a two-way race. last month they were only one point apart. in the senate race, it's a wider gap in favor of joe heck and the race to fill harry reid's seat in nevada. heck has a seven-point advantage. some folks believe that number is larger in our polls than it is in others. let's check in with people who are experts in their state. john is the man in nevada politics these days. in new hampshire, a professor of political science, they studied our poll and will be brunt and honest about what they think. let me start with you. the nevada numbers may surprise

down the senate. the most interesting numbers is how hillary clinton is overperforming the candidate with hispanic voters and she has the opportunity of becoming the first hispanic woman in the senate. what's going on? >> that is fairly consistent. on the two-term attorney general, they didn't do a lot to reintroduce herself to voters. they have taken a long time to consolidate that base. we had four days already that the democrats are getting that base out and getting those voters out. they have about a 30,000 ballot statewide lead and looked a lot like 2012. the key is in nevada to hillary clinton and donald trump and katherine cortez. how big the hispanic vote is. 15% in 2008 and an perce18% in .

you want me to be blunt and honest, i will do my best. donald trump has almost 40% of the latino vote. if that's happening here or anywhere else, we will be at donald trump's inauguration. >> our pollster said, our hispanic sample was too male. we are not going to overweight things. the result is the result, but it was more heavily male than other samples in nevada. that may be one explanation of why trump appears to be overperforming in our poll. >> i guess what i would say is that joe heck is also ahead by one point over the woman as you pointed out. she could be the first latina ever elected to the senate. that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. listen, polling to me doesn't mean as much in nevada and as much when you have a third of the data in for early voting. it looks very much like 2012. the real hope for joe heck is

you remember in 2012, barack obama won nevada by points and hillary clinton looks on that trajectory to me. they managed to buck that tide and win by about a point and a half or so. that is what joe heck is counting on. they are not acting on a campaign that is doing well. they are going to wa show county which is reno. they are not doing well in the early vote. mike pence was there and lindsey graham and john mccain were there there is something going on in the county which is a swik county in nevada. >> our poll arguably is conforming to what you have seen in others. our nevada poll didn't conform as much. our new hampshire numbers did that with points and the biggest difference is college educated whites. there is a larger group in new hampshire than nevada.

that may explain why that lead opened up. >> we are seeing new hampshire display the usual swing state behavior. hillary clinton has a high single digit lead and new hampshire is acting like it's more democratic. that's about right. college educated women is an important force here both for clinton and for a governor. i think also keep an eye on college-educated male. as well as high school educated females. that is keeping the gender gap constand because they are trending except for high school educated male voters which is trump's stronghold. >> you looked at ayotte. who is the group of voters that

she has to continue to count on to pull this off? >> well, clearly the republican base is vital. in a normal presidential election year, the state is democratic. she has to pull especially well from the republican base and make sure that her base is not becoming demoralized by the top of the ticket. that's number one. number two, there are the independent vet voters, true independents and not just the undecleared, but people in the middle. she has to get a clear plurality and majority of the independents to break for her against them and buy into her mantra that she is a enter right republican willing to work across the aisle. they had to come through for her in 13 days. >> i want to play a quick ad. it goes into a fun sweep you had

earlier in the day. a new ad that nick mcconnell's super pac is running. the $25 million for a handful of senate races and here it is. >> harry reid has failed nevada for 30 years. now he picked a successor, but katherine cortez failed nevada first. don't let harry reid force another failure on nevada. >> who is running? one final shot. >> they are making it about harry reid and barely mention her at the beginning. they are closing the argument and saw the fund with another ad that is like that that just started. this is the most outside spending of any senate race in nevada history. they are closing by trying to morpho her into harry reid or

vice-versa to try to close the deal. i have to tell you. the heck campaign and the outside republican spending against captain cortez has been border line brilliant. they realized she was not defined in the electorate's eyes and they called her corrupt. if heck manages to survive, it will be because of that campaign. >> very quickly, are they doing much for ayotte? >> it's a battle of attrition kpipt. there are two popular politicians who will be less so overtime because of the outside money back and forth. ayotte proved resilient despite the fact that her top of the ticket is such a mess. >> people that truly know their battle ground states, thank you very much. see you again. >> new insight from undecided

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>> the message is not that i'm the best candidate, but i'm less of a sleaze ball. >> trump is in north carolina hoping to get an edge and they show we are 15 days out from the election and they have a better grasp of what turning them off wlarn they want.

one woman said hillary clinton didn't win her vote. it was donald trump. >> i so much wanted trump. i so much wanted a non-politician. but i don't trust him and i'm a freight of him. >> i'm afraid of him because? >> i don't think he knows when to shut up. if he would say i'm a business man and i'm not a politician and i will make america great again and stop, i would vote for him. i see a temper tantrum like a little boy. i listen more to clinton. i don't love clinton and don't trust her, but i think she is the lesser of two evils. >> despite the repulsion, the feeling was distant. >> i feel like she is too well prepare and too well spoken. i can't see her as a human

being. she is prepared and says what she plans to say. >> does she have compassion and empathy? >> i don't think so. >> the university of pennsylvania and public tell us and one half of the nbc "wall street journal" polling people and political editor that's for us here at nbc. i will start with you and start with the two women we heard. it was striking. whachs more representative of what we should take away from women in north carolina or women in general. >> we have seen the election in that profile. these are women that should be in the trump camp.

thigh sent support donald trump because of his temperament and behavior. they see him as unfit for office. when they look at hillary clinton, she is seen as untrustworthy. this is the dilemma for a lot of women and it's working for hillary clinton and against donald trump. >> when you ask them to describe trump to the group. >> ego maniac. >> ego maniac. >> hot headed. >> smart. >> arrogant. >> arrogant. >> brag. >> you met these folks. that sounds like a bunch of clinton voters. was that democrats? >> when you play the same word association game about hilry

clinton, they were equally negative and a lot of people saying liar. i can't trust her. they believe she is above the law. these didn't just have negative feelings about trump, but equally visceral reactions to both candidates. they were not angry about it. some of the other focus groups said peter is conducted and attended. voters have been more viscerally angry. these people were not mad, just disa pointed that these were their only choices and they felt they had to hold their nose. the phrase lesser of two evils as they were deciding who to pick between. 13 days away from the election and they were asking the same question. whether this is about donald trump or hillary clinton. clinton seems to have an edge with the women voters being played earlier. before making the same choice that they were earlier this

summer. >> let me get peter to come in. you asked what do you believe clinton's motivation is to be president? take a listen. >> power. >> policy change. >> power. >> power. >> self interest. >> power. >> motivating herself. >> love of country. >> attention. >> covering her tracks. >> money and power. >> peter, at best i came up with three positives there. i don't know who had it worse, trump or clinton. >> trump clearly had it worse, but he appeared to hope to win and lead the nation. those are not the remarks you want said. at this stage the voters are having a hard time because what comes out is i just can't find either of them ready to lead the

country. i don't feel comfortable. all the ads have been negative against the other person. the point here is no reason to follow either of them. they didn't get even excited about having the first female president. none of it grabbed them. >> before i can get you on that, this is to me, the clinton campaign one thing they failed to do is offer up anything to fix the trust issue. no pledges on reform or no pledges on transparency. that has been a strategic mistake. how does clinton fix her trust problem. here are the responses. >> keep the promises at a minimum so she can meet what she is saying. >> avoid any appearance of impropriety which she has been unable to do. i don't know how she

accomplishes that. once you have lost a trust like that, i don't know how you get it back. >> that's the striking thing about that clip. you wonder is this fixable for clinton as period and if it is, boy, does she have a lot of work to do. >> the issues were so different than deciding democrats and republicans. these were people who didn't bring out the issue of immigration or they didn't bring up issues of gay rights as much as primary voters or decided voters would do. they care about generally -- jobs and health care. they had negative things to say about obamacare and despite this, make a couple of promises and stick to them and give us benchmarks to show change. this is something throughout the campaign that hillary clinton has failed to do to give a

positive message. even though they talked about her, they were talking about the competence and not policy issues. the trump supporters were talking about for trump. >> quickly, what was the mood of that room when it comes to north carolina's role in the political debate cycle? in many ways it's ground zero for our culture wars. considering what's going on with hb 2. how did that group react on that issue? >> there was some of that, but ground zero within the household. they don't feel they can talk to their spouse in civil terms on the election. it split households and voters and the only thing they agreed on and the only hero out of this thing was michelle obama. tremendously well received. she has become the moral voice for the voters in 2016.

>> peter hart ka and carrie. quantitative and skqualitative. why i and so many americans find the zombie apocalypse so fascinating and why it's not a bad thing. yoinherit lots of aits from your famil ancesesr, lady beat, introduced the elizabethan ruff. great-grandfatr horatio went west during the go rush. and aunt susan was a i inheriteeir can-do spirit.

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mike pence is in salt lake city, the vice presidential nominee before the election is campaigning in utah. yep, that's where the election stands. okay, it was bizarre. the two republican nominees from

past and present arguing basically and his running mate is in utah. you don't have enough evidence about why this race looks to be in the place it is, look at jus today. >> then you had hillary clinton in florida. day two. fighting it out in the battle ground state that she has to win with a robust get out the vote program. early voting. she's doing it the old-fashioned way. the nuts and bolts of campaigning in the states that need to go her way. when it comes right down to it, the person who is doing the nuts and bolts is the likely winner in this case. >> as we've seen this race, in some ways, it feels like it is broken open naturally. but it is interesting that it has been hit or miss on which states follow that. new hampshire has. florida hasn't. north carolina hasn't. nevada hand. there is a larger trump base in some of these battle ground states. you look at the new poll pout

has trump up two. and some that say hillary is up 3. a lot of is it counter intuitive. you expect clinton to do well here and trump to do well here. >> well, florida is a microcosm. it has everything. i did think it would be easier for hillary though. especially with the latino vote. the cuban vote was not as right wing as it has been in previous years but it is close. >> the biggest, we talked about where mike pence was. the other thing to me that dropped like ton of bricks in the republican ticket. a whole bunch of republicans said we need money. we need to find the emergency $25 million. it is all for senate races. if you can final republican voters. >> for a long time.

there are a lot of big donors who decided they will not even give to the rnc. they will go and create their own super pacs and go into these states. they don't believe in trump's gentle and they do believe they have to keep the senate republican. so it is a new phenomenon and something we'll see more and more of. you will see people picking and choosing. this happened as we got word that trump said i'm be doing any more big money fundraising. on one hand, at this point you should be done with it. >> but hillary isn't done with it. >> but my problem, that's true. my problem is it flies in the face of it. the top of the ticket drives it. it is very unusual to split tickets in a robust way. that's what they're counting on. that people will split their

votes. typically that doesn't happen. >> i think will be a very unusual year when it comes to it. we talked about new hampshire. none of this makes sense. we have ron portman doing fantastic in ohio. so there are things. that is in part what donald trump missed as far as, not only a field game but an actual campaign operation. where do you i.d. voters. you learn to do one step and another and you basically run a three-month campaign and he didn't do that. >> before i let you go. it is a progressive, and i think you want to keep some pressure on hillary clinton. >> what is interesting is that the "washington post" had a story about this. sanders is ready to be a will he be ral thorn in cleanse's side. it is something about wikileaks more than anything that has

really surfaced this divide. that exists in the democrat party, too. we start today between trump and romney. sanders is keeping his powder dry. you don't want to say what was in our e-mail but on november 9, they'll start talking about it. i think she will try make her move. >> that's the first one that could apiece it fast. that would be tuition free college. >> push that early. and really hard. and you know, dare the republicans to push back. so if you're fighting hard for that and the republicans kill it. it is a feather in your cap.

>> you're assuming there is no more wikileaks after the election. i think they'll keep coming out. >> i don't think they'll be talking about new wikileaks so much after the election. >> great conversation. >> after the break, mapping out donald trump's pop hear it in the states based on where he owns property.

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in case you missed it, trump's traveling press corps

has been taken around. chug today. formerly known as the old post office. he has held 32 events at his own properties. >> with the notable exception of 1600 pennsylvania avenue, this is the most coveted piece of real estate in washington, d.c. >> it cost $6 billion to get that temporary address by the way. does good business equal good politics? he owns properties across the u.s. they are in hawaii, california, nevada, pennsylvania, new york, new jersey, washington, d.c., north carolina and florida. what do they have in common? it is possible trump could lose everyone of them. so what do you make of this? maybe people in those states have had it with trump. maybe most blue states that trump could never have won. on maybe trump's wealthy customers live if very different parts of the country than his blue collar voters do. we know this. even if his businesses haven't been bad for his politics and

perhaps helped his politics, the question is, have trump's politics been good for trump's businesses? that we may find out november 9th. that's all we have for today. the folks at "with all due respect" starts now. with all due respect, you may be under budget, ahead of schedule, but you're a little over your word count. with less than two weeks before the election, donald trump did what every candidate would do. attend a hotel ribbon cutting with his family here in washington, d.c. there has been some head scratching in the media over the move with critics accusing trump of foolishly taking time away from his campaign