498 electoral votes to trump's 23. if the only votes that counted were those aged 18 to 34. big blue nation under those circumstances. that's "the 11th" hour for tonight. "hardball" with chris matthews up next. up in the air. let's play "hardball." 13 days to go and hillary clinton has opened a big lead in two national polls heading into the final stretch. clinton is up nine points in the latest "usa today"/suffolk university poll. 47% to 38% in a four-way race. in a brand new poll from the associated press clinton leads by 14 points, 51% to 37%. but as a counterweight, fox news, which has a good poll out this evening that shows the race closer. clinton has a three-point lead

nationally, 44% to 41% in that fox poll. but the polls that will decide the election are the battlegrou states themselves and those polls are mixed. a bloomberg poll in florida shows trump ahead by two points, just two, most other polls down there show clinton ahead. the real clear politics average, by the way, in florida has her leading by a point and a half. so florida is very much in convention. in nevada, the candidates are tied, actually tied, according to a brand new nbc/"wall street journal"/marist poll. in new hampshire, that little state up there in the nbc polls, clinton up by nine. another poll, monmouth, shows her lead in new hampshire just four points hillary clinton warned supporters not to get complacent and she mocked donald trump's debate performance. >> i stood next to donald trump for hour in and a half hours in those three debates. proving i think once and for all i have the stamina to be

president. no matter what he did, no matter what he said, no matter how he stalked me and lurked over me -- [ laughter ] i just kept thinking about what michelle obama said -- when he goes low, we go high. >> well, meanwhile a standoff between one of trump's top surrogates, newt gingrich, and fox news anchor megyn kelly marked the campaign trail today. here's the fox exchange last night. >> if trump is a sexual predator -- >> he's not a sexual predator, you cannot defend that statement. >> i am not taking a position on it. >> i'm sick and tired of people like you using language that's inflammatory that's not true. >> excuse me, mr. speaker, you have no idea whether it's true or not. what we know -- >> and neither do you. >> that's right, and i'm not taking a position on it, unlike you. >> yes, you are. you want to go back through the tapes of your show recently? you are fascinated with sex and

you don't care about public policy. >> me? really? >> that's what i get out of watching you tonight. >> you know what, mr. speaker? i'm not fascinated by sex but i am fascinated by the protection of women. >> today donald trump congratulated his surrogate newt gingrich for that performance. let's watch trump. >> congratulations, newt, on last night, that was an amazing interview. [ applause ] we don't play games, newt, right? we don't play games. >> i'm joined by "usa today's" washington bureau chief susan page, trump surrogate matt schlapp and the chairman of the american conservative union and cornell belcher, his book is called "a black man in the white house." i want to go with susan page who i rely on a lot for common sense reporting here. this is this. newt versus kelly. why on earth would trump want to -- the polls are mixed, bouncing all over the place, i trust this fox poll, who knows if he can win this thing but he ain't gonna win this thing if he

focuses on battles with megyn kelly. he has to keep saying over and over again if you like the way things are on trade, i want inauguration and wars, vote for hillary clinton. that's the status quo. he has to say that every minute of the campaign and maybe he can streak -- find a victory in this mess but if he keeps wasting his firepower on these intermural battles with the media, i don't get it. i don't know why he cares about >> it's not only a message that would be productive for donald trump, it's also not appealing to the voters he needs to get back, which are women. >> exactly. >> this kind of language, you're fascinated with sex, to a highly respected journalist is not designed to appeal to some of the college-educated women who have been moving away from the republican party this year in a big way. >> and i think people who would like to get ahead in life like megyn has gotten ahead are thinking here's a successful person and he's dumping on her, what would he do to me?

i don't have the firepower she has. let's go to matt. why is trump fighting these stupid -- i'm not knocking megyn kelly, she's a pro. why is he getting involved with these fights? i don't get it? >> well, i think when he talks about the issues -- and i think his speeches have been focused like a laser -- >> when is he going to do that? >> i agree. i think he did in the north carolina. it's a much smarter way to do things. when he focuses on the issues, this race should naturally tighten. he is the candidate of change and the american people want change and when he doesn't talk about the key issues of terrorism, the economy and change in washington it's a day he loses. >> i agree. i think the country is 50-50. it could be a close election if they were together as a candidate, didn't have the history he keeps bringing back up. every final he fights on the front on one of these sex discussions he's reminded everybody of the "access hollywood" stuff. cornell, i don't know if you agree but i think this country is divided politically fairly closely between left-right, between now and something

different than now and trump keeps deluding himself to thinking the real battle is between him and some anchor woman. what's that about? >> at some point we have to -- trump is who he keeps showing us he is, right? and we can talk about him wanting to talk about issues and be a change agent and consistently he shows us who he really is and it's ridiculous for him to get into these back-and-forth fights that expand his problem with women. but you're right, chris, the problem is structurally we are a country that is going to be hard for one candidate to blow another candidate in the battleground states. a at the same time he's seeing clinton expand her overall lead nationally, we know in the battleground states, go to nevada, florida, north carolina, structurally it's really hard, especially for a democrat to open up a six or seven-point advantage in those states so it

will be three or four points so what he does now and what she does right now sort of on the issues and generating turnout really important in these battleground states because it's not going to be an eight-point race in florida, it's not going to be an eight point race in north carolina and nevada. >> there's a couple things we're learning in the biographies of both these candidates. trump, we're getting focused on his biography, but it's killing the message that could be coming as a protest over trade and war and a couple other things. hillary clinton, trump is doing the best favor in the world, he's keeping the focus away from her. in an interview with bloomberg's mark halperin, trump said he likes his chances heading into the home stretch. >> reporter: what's your general of where you are in the battleground states. florida, iowa, ohio. >> i think we're winning ohio, so do you. we're winning florida more than your poll says, you have us two points up.

we're going to do fantastically in pennsylvania. i think we're winning north carolina. i think we will soon be winning new hampshire. look, it's jobs, it's fix our military, it's take care of our vets i don't know if i'm a great messenger but it's the right message. >> susan, what's the smart aspect of saying he's way in pennsylvania? nobody, no poll finds that at all. >> he says something that's true. iowa, ohio, florida, those are states that are and that he could win. pennsylvania seems to be pulling away for hillary clinton and so does new hampshire. >> so does north carolina. >> and north carolina also and maybe nevada will be close. the race has been a little scrambled by his candidacy and some of the changes we've seen and the demography behind the two parties but it's hard when you put together -- it's hard to see how he get to 270 electoral votes, it gets harder as we get in the home stretch and these

states open up leads for hillary clinton. >> how do you explain the difference between a fox poll -- and it's a good fox poll generally, three points today, just came out, and a 14-point difference on a.p.? matt, you want to answer this? how can to two polls be that different 14, and 3? why do we bother reporting them they're so different? >> there's endless chatter about what the model is and are they skewed, asking too many democrats and will the democrats turn out. certainly the african-american vote and the hispanic vote like they did for barack oba, you have that. but there's a big dynamic that we don't know how big it is but because donald trump has been so excoriated for the last four weeks and had an october in presidential politics where we've never seen anything like it. there's a lot of voters that would like to put him in timeout but do they move back to him when the coverage of the race is more serene or at least as serene as this race could be? this race is going to get tighter. i think that fox poll, that

investor business daily poll which says hillary clinton's up one, i think that's more indicative of this race than these double-digit polls. >> cornell, i had this sense watching this thing like all of us have been doing for so long that there's a situation that develops, if nothing bad happens to trump for two or three weeks or two weeks and it settles down it gets much closer. it's like his bad behavior, historical or current, makes the race easy for hillary clinton. the minute he doesn't screw up for like a week or two it seems like it gets closer. he hasn't screwed up now since, what? a while ago? ? >> that's right, chris, part of the problem is if you look at that "usa today" poll, he's running nine points behind among republican performers where she is among just flat out democratic performers so a lot of the vote that's left him, it's not like hillary clinton's all of a sudden winning over a vast majority of voters who have been breaking republican all this time, she's not, she's

doing better but his problem is when you look at -- he talked about philadelphia, go to philadelphia and look at the suburbs in pennsylvania where those college-educated white voters, especially college-educated white women are so critical and college educated whites haven't been voting democrat, they've been voting republican and he's struggling with them right now but the moment -- if he can get them back -- >> didn't help them today, didn't help today. i think susan is right, cornell, susan, you're dead right. picking fights with successful professionalomen like megyn kelly says to a woman in her 20s, 30s, 50s, one who missed the opportunities in her generation, didn't have the opportunities they have today that person says "that guy doesn't care about people like me. susan? >> that's true and cornell made a great point in our poll today. 89% of democrats are supporting hillary clinton. 80% of republicans are

supporting donald trump. that's an opportunity for him. >> sure is. >> because if he doesn't have turmoil, self-created wounds over the next 12 days we -- you would naturally assume some of those republicans to come home to donald trump and that would tighten the race. >> thank you susan page, matt schlapp and cornell belcher. up next, michael moore makes his case for hillary clinton, a candidate he hasn't supported at the ballot box until now. this is "hardball," the police for politics.

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>> we're all americans, right? let's just start there. regardless of who we're voting for, right? we're all in the same boat and we're going to sink or swim together and i'd rather we swim because i believe we have more things in common than not. we believe in the same things. first of all, we want the best schools for our kids, right? trump voters? right? right? you want the best schools for your kids, that's not -- i know there's a rule don't agree with michael moore on anything, but -- [ laughter ] . i'm trying to come out and meet you halfway. >> welcome back to "hardball," that was filmmaker and liberal activist michael moore in a scene from his new documentary released this week entitled "michael moore in trumpland" and it's a one man show performed on stage before a bipartisan -- a lot of trump people there in a trump stronghold of wilmington, ohio, where a lot of trump people live but the film isn't a

damning indictment of trump, instead, he makes a case for hillary clinton, somebody he readily admit he is never supported before by voting iffer for her. it's more his appeal to working class voters who make up trump's base in an effort to persuade them. i'm going to give you a couple mince, no drupgss. why have you fallen in love with the political possibilities of president hillary clinton? >> i've been in love with her for 23 years. >> but you never voted for her. >> no, because i'm able to separate my personal feelings and my forbidden love from the political issues. >> seriously. come on, tell me why somebody out there should support hillary. >> aam serious. 1993 this woman decided to risk everything and put it out there so that we could have universal health care and she went for it and she was attacked and humiliated by. >> a lot of people, john dingle and pat moynihan, she faced a

lot of head winds. >> she did. >> rightly or wrongly. >> it wasn't wrong to those of us who believed in universal health care. >> i meant her critics rightly or wrongly because some had arguments go ahead. >> i just think -- i have felt for a long time that she was a force for good that what she believed in and the things, the people she cared about -- now, i have my disagreements with her politically and that's why i was for bernie and obama in '08. >> who would you prefer the nominee? her -- >> right now? tonight. >> you'd prefer bernie tonight. >> no, hillary clinton. >> you voted for him. why did you vote for him i you don't want him? >> because he lost. because i'm willing to accept -- >> would you like him to have won? >> he as far as i'm concerned by winning 22 states, a socialist -- >> okay, rhetoric. >> that was a huge -- you don't understand what's going to happen after 2016. these young people, these 18 to 35-year-olds, remember, there's three million new 18-year-old voters every single year.

>> so? >> by the next election that's 12 million more. they favor socialism over capitalism. >> fair enough. do you? >> absolutely. >> but hillary isn't a socialist? >> well, she's a christian so it's the same thing, it's about making sure everyone has a seat at the table and the pie is divided so everybody gets a slice. isn't that christianity? >> tell me about -- i don't want to get in a fight with you, i'm stopping right now. >> you said i would have two minutes. you gave me 20 seconds but i'm happy. >> give me the personal case for hillary. take more time. >> the case for hillary. hillary clinton, sitting in that -- first of all, on a macro level the fact that we're -- it isn't being said enough that we're going to elect our first woman president. this is huge for the country, for the world, for the future, for our young girls, our daughters and granddaughters, all of that, this is a very,

very positive great moment. when she is in the oval office, she is not going to harm the planet. she's not going to harm children, she's -- >> you don't think she's more hawkish than obama? >> she may be more hawkish than obama, i hope not. >> does that worry you? >> of course it does. that's why i was for bernie. she voted for the war so this is something that we've -- but she has said she was wrong. she wrote in her book she'd never been more wrong about anything. what more do you want? she said she was wrong and i think that if the bernie revolution stays intact and everybody who was organized behind bangladeshny on november 9 after she's in the white house, we will behere to support hern the good she's going to do and make sure that if she doesn't -- >> we all agree women have a different advantage in life and know things we don't, child raising in many cases. >> it's not just that, it's that they haven't caused climate change,tomic bombs, how

many school shootings have girls that go and shoot up the school? >> are women less war like than men? >> exactly. >> give an example of a national leader in the world. thatcher? >> that's the outlier. >> golda mey meir? >> if you watch misdemeanor i last film, whenever you have one or two women, just as when you have one african-american on the supreme court, you end up with the token who has to appease the other side to get in there so you have clarence thomas but what you have now that we have had over 08 daunt reis that have elected a woman, how many of those have gone to war. >> do you think thurgood marshall kowtowed to the other court members? >> we lived in a different time then when we had presidents, when we had republican presidents -- >> i get your point. thank you, michael moore. when we return, my election diary on a race which suddenly looks weirdly unpredictable. this is "hardball," the place for politics. ♪

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election diary wednesday, october 26. i have a sense this election for president is being pulled in two ways, i'm not talking about the tension between donald trump and hillary clinton, that's natural, there's a different tension at work that's remarkable. the attention between a voter's impulse to vote their beliefs about the country and the tendency to vote or against a candidate based on his or her fitness for office. if i believe donald trump didn't have his history of personal misbehavior -- we all know the allegations -- and judged by the three main issues he's raised -- 121 milli 11 million people in the country

illegally, the bad war decisions, especially iraq, he would be running close to if not ahead of hillary clinton. here's the danger. if trump loses and hillary wins the message of the trump campaign will be dismissed u. it shouldn't be. people are not happy about it that we don't have an immigration system we're proud of. not happy with the loss of manager r manufacturing jobs and the wars that severely damaged the lives of so many young americans. the fact that a candidate with trump's personal baggage is still getting the support he is should tell the winner if it's hillary to take the message trump was selling to so many to spite herself. that's "hardball." thanks for being with us. join me again tomorrow night at 7:00 eastern. see you then.

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>> we've got news coming up on that exact subject later on in my hour including comments from tim kaine about how he will vote on merrick garland is if he's in the senate and it comes up. thanks for joining us in this hour. we do have that story including that exclusive content from tim kaine talking about how he would vote in the senate on merrick garland. that's coming up at the end of the show tonight. we start with something that we've got that i knew was coming. i did not know it was coming this quickly. i'm not the kind of person who says, i told you so, but in this case, i told you so. i just didn't know it would happen so fast. here's the story. this is a big deal. on monday night we reported here on this show on a huge new problem that the trump campaign seemed to have cooked up for the national republican party to be clear, in context, there's a whole bunch of problems that the trump campaign has for the republican party. there's a new poll that puts