carolina. before he takes off on those events, governor pence will be right here joining the conversation on "morning joe." >> i want to hear about the seconds they were going off runway. >> that's it for >> i just spoke to our future vice president, and he's okay. do you foe he was in a big accident with a plane. the plane skidded off the runway and was pretty close to grave, grave danger. i just spoke with mike pence, and he's fine. everybody is fine. everybody is fine. but what a great decision it was to get mike pence. what a great guy he is. what a great job he's doing. >> he's talking about that frightening ending to a flight last night for those aboard mike pence's campaign charter. his boeing 737 went off the end of the runway at laguardia in new york city coming to rest in

some grass at the end of the 7,000-foot runway after plowing through a arrester beds designed for just an occasion, to bring planes to a halt. no one was hurt. pence tweeted so thankful everyone on our plane is safe. grateful for our first responders and concerns and prayers of so many. back on the trail tomorrow and governor pence joins us on set coming up in our 7:00 a.m. hour. we'll see him right then. good morning, everyone. it's friday. it is friday. october 28th. get ready for halloween, everybody. it's coming soon. with us on set, we have managing editor of bloomberg politics and co-host of "all due respect," john heilemann. ad man donny deutch and in columbus, ohio, senior political editor and white house correspondent for the huffington post, sam stein. >> a little mr. rogers thing going on. >> it's his halloween costume. >> trying to go undercover or

something? >> why did i wake up? >> i don't know. i'm just going to look like the kids. >> what is the point of this? what is the point of putting myself through this torture? >> so sweet without it. >> his wife likes it. i guess that's all that matters. >> are we done? are we done? >> it's a good thing that it's all that matters. >> sam stein in columbus, ohio, thank you so much for being with us. >> thanks for having me. it's been a real pleasure so far. >> we'll see you on monday. >> we want your analysis on sunday. the latest national poll puts hillary clinton ahead. the pew research center puts clinton at 46%. donald trump at 40%. donald trump is going to return to arizona for a seventh time,

which is a record. this as both candidates head to iowa tonight. trump in cedar rapids. clinton in des moines. a state where trump has been leading but in a new poll shows clinton jumping seven points since last month into a tie. 44 to 44. gary johnson dropping six points to 4%. a new poll shows a six-point swing in clinton's direction. trump barely ahead. 44% to her 43%. johnson at 8%. in north carolina, clinton leading by four points. 47% to trump's 43%. according to the latest early votie ining analysis, 13.7 mill people have voted nationwide. more than half have been cast in 12 battleground states giving clinton the edge ahead of trump by six points in georgia. 34 points in iowa. 28 points in north carolina.

>> john heilemann, state of the race according -- let's just talk about at the end of the week. we've had polls that have shown 13 points or 12. there's been a fox news poll that has it at 3. the pew poll at 6. these battleground states that have come out, not any good news in there for donald trump. >> not any good news anywhere for donald trump i would say. the race was basically over at the end of the week and it's closer to over now because you're passing each day. i think -- i don't really love the statistical what the percentage -- >> 92.684. >> i'm skeptical. you don't want to declare the race to be completely over, but she's pretty solidly at a 6 or 7 lead and battleground states which are tighter in places we're seeing all over the place where she's starting to pull ahead and places like georgia

where it's a statistical dead heat. if we wake up on election day and she won georgia, we're close to -- >> a lot of swing states are tight. when the swing states are north carolina, arizona, and georgia -- >> which are not usually swing states. >> that's what i'm saying. when they are those states, you know you have a republican that's really campaigned back on their heels. >> those states are nonnegotiable for donald trump to win. texas was never, i don't think, ever going to go democratic this time. the fact that that's close should be a warning sign as well. so i think that pew poll that shows six points nationally captures the average feels about where the race is but trump has to lockdown those three states we just talked, georgia, arizona and iowa and win the honest to goodness swing states which he's not winning those either.

north carolina, virginia, he's down double digits now. colorado, pennsylvania. all over the map. >> three weeks out is one thing. you don't say it's over when it's three weeks. when it's two weeks, it's still not over. now we're ten days out maybe. ten days out. he's going to have to pick up five points nationally in ten days to get those swing states going his way. a lot of people are going to have to lie to pollsters, which just doesn't happen to that degree. i'm with john. i just don't say anything is ever over. ever. but at the end of this week, there was some polls out midweek that were good for him in swing states. these are not. >> first of all, let's talk about the polls that we're going to have to understand that somebody is wrong within the margin of error. if we have 12 points swings, we're going to have new rules about polls. >> you look at what happened in

the 2012 race. gall >> these polls are different to your point of the last couple days you see tightening. i'm curious. the last two days for trump have been the best two days or best last two or three days in the campaign in that he's been inadvisable. with very the obama premiums going up 25%. next level of wikileaks. probably the most severe ones yet. i would not be surprised if another day or two we don't see the polls tighten a point or two in the other direction. having said that -- >> people are saying he'll be at 37%. there's always tightening. america is 50-50 nation usually. so now -- >> if you have watched the polls, when he goes a few days without dropping all over himself, it kind of comes back like that. as you guys talked all during yesterday at the end of the day going back to battle states,

that even if you do the hail mary he's at 265. there's no path without new hampshire. that's not happening. i said this the day of billy bush, the election ended that day. no good news for this gentleman. >> there's no tightening in the polls. >> i'm saying in the next two days. >> let me finish. in iowa, for instance, iowa has been the traditional battleground states is where trump has done best. that seven-point jump for her in iowa if that poll is correct is indicative of not tightening -- >> from last month to this month. >> that's not a trend toward tightening. that's a trend toward her getting to accelerating her broader lead in the race. >> you can look midweek. there was some polls out talking about a tightening race. again, i think -- i love the people that say don't look at one poll.

you have to look at a collection of polls. that's why i think these news organizations sort of doing the poll of polls. pretty smart thing to do. >> sam is a loud swallower. we've been listening to him drinking his coffee this morning. >> is there something you want to talk about with everybody? you seem just a little confused and lost and struggled lately. >> do you know where you're going to? do you like the things your life is showing you? >> what is this show? >> you just answered yes. >> ten days until the election and i'm being put on the couch. what is happening here? >> sam, if you watched -- >> it's 6:10 in columbus. here i am -- sam, we've upset you. sam, if you listen to trump --

>> sam's mom by the way is going to kick my ass next time she sees me. >> fun story about that but go ahead. >> i want to hear the story first. >> okay. so i was at a rally. we were attending a trump rally in springfield, iowa, and we were talking to a bunch of attendees about what happens potentially on the day after the election. "the new york times" had a story about rioting in the streets. people at trump rally, kind people. they don't care about rioting. they understand the stakes of the election very invested in it. there's no blood in the streets. but a bunch of people came up to me and were, like, we see you on "morning joe" and it's great but we're more concerned about the air time joe is giving you. willie, you were going to ask me something. >> you can just talk if you want to. i was going to say if you listen to trump on the campaign trail he shines a light on florida and ohio. we're doing great in ohio. look at florida where it's tight. that's true actually if you look at the numbers.

when you look at everything around that, typically in a presidential race you would say florida, ohio, let's focus on those. it's the things happening around him in the other states that matter in north carolina that it won't matter if you can somehow pull off ohio and florida if he loses all these other states we've been talking about this morning. >> i don't think people -- that's the depth of his issue here even if he got north carolina, somehow salvaged arizona, georgia, iowa, nevada, we're going down the list here. so long as he loses colorado, virginia, pennsylvania, new hampshire, and doesn't pick up that district in maine, i mean, he's done. this is how monumental the task is for him. polls are one thing. he comes into this final stretch of the campaign, the numbers came in last night, he and his committees have $119 million cash on hand. clinton has 162 million cash on hand. there's so much more money she has to play with and we forget this sometimes, he doesn't just

have to be tied in the polls heading into the election, he has to be up a few percentage points owing to the fact that he's not invested in a robust ground game operation that she has. you look at some of the numbers of offices that she has open in arizona, for instance, and even texas, and she dwarfs what he's doing in terms of infrastructure. this task is monumental. it's going to take something intense national change of focus and i just don't see it happening right now. >> i thought he bounced back. >> you just pushed that button and he goes. his mother has nothing to complain about today. >> you're exactly right, sam. i want to thank you. i'm serious about this. i thank you for what you say about trump supporters. i read stories on the front page of "the new york times," which is a paper i love and respect and read every day. it is my paper that i read every day. when i see headlines trump backers see revolution if clinton wins. it's deeply insulting to people like my brother, people like

nicole's parents and to the people that you see and the people you see when you go out to rallies. there's always bad apples in every crowd but to suggest that they are, like, these people, the bundys, who i just can't even begin to imagine how any jury on this planet could acquit those people. i'm sure all of the jurors were talking about they love the constitution. how about the rule of law? there is no such thing as rule of law i guess in that. it's just absolutely staggering to me that the jury acquitted all of those defendants in the case who just basically spit at the rule of law. anyway, sam, back to your point, there's going to be no blood in the streets. it's deeply offensive that the national media is pushing this narrative. it's just like sarah palin when she was getting -- after getting just bashed by the press for months, she was getting 10,000 people at rallies at the end of her campaign. joe biden was getting, like, 47.

they had to go through the crowds and find something that called her a socialist. claimed it was the end of american democracy. just stop. >> once again, i agree. >> just stop. stop insulting trump supporters. >> 64% of trump supporters believe the election is going to be rigged. that doesn't translate to muskets being taken off shelves. >> donny, do you know over 50% of democrats believed at one point politico reported that george w. bush knew about the nine attacks before they happened and was complicit in the attacks on america? >> and? >> we can all come up with -- >> this is a simple -- >> no one is going to take up muskets. >> is it beyond the palm to see

a few bad apples. you talk to reporters at every rally and they say they feel it. so, no, do i think they're going to be -- >> they feel it. this feel it. >> joe, is there no -- >> yes, there's rage. there is rage on both sides. >> joe, you say that rage is equal on both sides? >> you go to -- if you're going to let me talk here. if you talk to reporters who actually dare to cross bernie sanders and the things that were said by bernie sanders supporters who we love and respect bernie, there was rage there. there's rage on both sides. the national media only sees it through their own goggles. there's only rage on one side all the time. there's only one party that ever believes elections are fixed. forget that fact that we've only won two elections in 87 years and democrats freaked out and said we fixed both of them. sam, you were there last night.

talk about the rage and hatred and blood in the streets. by the way, sam, for the record, my first campaign slogan, the streets will flow with the blood of the unbelievers. i have a bumper sticker for you. >> a winning slogan if there ever was. >> got 62%. >> it could be just that i'm in ohio and people are super nice, but we talked to, like, maybe two dozen people about what -- we asked them the question. you wake up november 9th and your guy has lost. what is that day like for you? >> of course any reporter is antidotal. but these people were by in large understanding of how democracy works. respectful of the electoral process. they do think there's tilting on the scales for hillary clinton when it comes to media coverage and so on and so forth, but they said life goes on. i have other things in my life that i have to worry about. jobs. health care. religion. stuff like that. i recognize that i'm going to have to go back and work doubly

hard to elect republicans in 2018, 2020. that being said, it's objectively true that trump stirred up a lot more animus in ways that aren't tradition of the campaign. from what i got from my atte attending at this rally in springfield where i sat in the audience, these people understand how this works. i just don't see how there's going to be blood in the streets. >> i've seen a lot of disturbing things on the trump campaign this year. john heilemann, you have a stern look on your face. will there be revolution in the streets? >> for a lot of reporters it's been easy to find people like the gentleman on camera saying if hillary clinton was elected, she might have to be shot. i'm not predicting revolution. it's not been cherry picking. you can find people at a lot of these events will come on camera or say things to reporters that

you won't generally hear at a clinton rally. it's not the majority of trump supporters. there will not be a revolution the day after the election. it's not hard to find people who will say things at trump rallies. that's been true for a year. >> there are people trying to make money on radio and websites willing to go out and say ridiculous things. if you lose, grab your musket. >> to go to muskets, former congressman joe walsh, the guy who called barack obama a liar from the wall of congress, tweeted he was going to pick up muskets two days ago. i don't think there are many mus muskets in america anymore. >> it wasn't that joe that told obama he was a liar. >> it was not? >> it wasn't. >> joe wilson. sorry.

my error. >> he's been out of congress for years. people are freaking out over what this crackpot who says crackpot things and has been saying them for years. >> there is a loud vocal minority of crackpots that have been attracted to donald trump. >> there are. i don't want the media to paint with too broad of a brush because half of the people who are supporting donald trump, willie, are supporting donald trump because they can't bring themselves to vote for hillary clinton. they're disgusted by what he says about muslims. they're disgusted about what he said about david duke. they're disgusted about a lot of things and they're voting for their own personal reasons that have nothing to do with all of that, and they're going to go back to work the next day, and they're going to -- you know what they're going to say in "the new york times"? this is a race we should have won. we need to get our act together. >> of course it's not most of them. this is why it's important for

donald trump on election night should he lose to get up on that stage and say we had a tough race. hillary clinton is now president of the united states. turn the page and move on. i think he'll do that. >> i have no reason to believe he won't. >> i don't either. i do know what donny deutch is going to do the day after. he's going to do the same thing he does every day. he's going to go into his closet which is the size of this studio and say what's the tightest black baby gap t-shirt i can find and what child do i rent this morning to walk through central park to try to pick up women? >> what's interesting that the audience doesn't know is joe is constantly texting me giving me tips for workout regimen and -- >> do you really want to go there? >> let's go, pal. >> sam stein -- >> he's bringing sam. he can't -- >> donny deutch, how many hours a day -- sam, here's a quick question for you. because you actually work for a

living. how many hours a day do you think donny deutch works out in his gym? just guess? >> i would put plus/minus at 6.5. >> he works out in his gym 3 1/2 hours a day. >> i will tell you the truth because i get a lot of questions from the audience on health care. i'll put in an hour and a half a day because i think good health and a good sense of self-worth. maybe two hours. >> you put in three hours a day. >> two hours. >> a reporter told me -- i think you're mocking those in our society that believe in good heal. >> you know who i'm mocking? i'm mocking people that have so many -- >> two hours of working out. an hour on the hair.

hour and a half on grooming. >> the hair just happens on its own. willie knows this. we exchange products. >> okay. >> do i have to do this? >> what is happening? >> you know that that's the hour. the special hour. >> willie, if you want to know what happens before the workout, it's the jose conseco and mark mcgwire bathroom scene. >> that's not been proven. those are only allegations. those are only allegations. >> donny hgh deutch. >> more discomfort for the clinton campaign. they shot each other in the butt. mcgwire and conseco. >> it was the thigh. >> more discomfort for all of us and the clinton campaign over the latest wikileaks release. i have a simple question that as far as the survey goes -- once

again, they all sound like they were shocked as everybody else about this. >> whoever gave them permission to have a private server was the question. later, the republican vice presidential nominee governor mike pence joins us live here on set. plus the rnc's chief strategist and communications director. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. [baby lk] [child giggling] child: look, ma.o has.

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employees at dixon. they're gone. maybe we'll get them back. should we try getting them back. now with me they wouldn't be able to leave because whatever the hell they make, when they go to mexico and they make their product and want to send it over the border and they leave us with closed plants and unemployment, and mexico gets the cash and factory and everything, i say no thank you,

it's 35% tax to get your product. >> no shortage -- >> come over here, you. >> wi-fi guy. >> here's the wi-fi guy. i asked him yesterday. we have a router, right, from apple. i said, we need this to work. what did you say, hugh? we can't do it, right? >> can't just plug it in. >> i said i need you to go and torch the place, right? so it's working this morning. hugh -- we don't have video. hugh went out and he had, like, a chainsaw. did you tear it up? ripped it up? it's working. >> no comment he says. >> okay. >> that's what a macgyver type stuff. >> coming up, there is no -- >> big hand to hugh. we didn't have wi-fi on the set working effectively but this morning someone came in and said

you do know that we have wi-fi in the fourth floor bathroom but now we it down here. >> fantastic. >> coming up, there's no shortage of awkward debate moments over the last year or so. we have one that is pretty jaw dropping. wait until you hear what senator mark kirk said to tammy duckworth. should we just call her senator duckworth now? >> you can call her senator now. >> and later, david crosby joins the table to talk about his new album, and he's got a lot to say about the presidential race. we'll be back with much more "morning joe." ♪ ♪

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32 past the hour. there's more insight into the rift inside the clinton campaign over the handling of her private e-mail server and how some in her inner circle were caught off guard by it as wikileaks continues their dump of e-mails. the release allegedly hacked from hillary clinton's campaign manager john podesta. these e-mails have not been independently authenticated by nbc news. >> the wind up. the delivery and now the pitch. >> okay. the day "the new york times"

story was published exposing hillary clinton's use of the private e-mail account and server, an exchange between podesta and future campaign manager robby mook shows they were blind-sided. podesta asked mook, did have you any idea of the depth of this story? to which mook responded, no. we brought up existence of e-mails in research this summer but we're told that everything was taken care of. in a separate exchange between clinton ally neera tanden and podesta from july of last year, tanden says do we actually know who told hillary she could use a private e-mail and has that person been drawn and quartered? whole thing is [ bleep ] insane. >> i can guess what that expletive was. >> and focusing on clinton's exclusive interview with andrea mitchell in which she says she

was sorry over the controversy of the server but didn't apologize for her decision to use it. tanden pushed for her to formally apologize saying everyone wants her to apologize. she should. apologies be like her achilles' heel. she said the word sorry. she'll get to a full apology in a few interviews and new from -- >> before we get to next one. let's talk about the revelations. it makes you feel better that people around her -- >> i remember being stunned about this private server. i remember the press conference that she had and even commentators after going it must have been secure. there's so much assumption going on here when it just seems like

they did something so out of bounds to obviously protect some sort of interest. and now it all seems very clear what was going on. >> it is good to know that people behind the scenes -- the people running the campaign. >> people that want her to win. by the way, me. >> knew it was wrong and were very upset by it. which of course makes all of the hacks on the outside saying that there's nothing to see here move along for the past year and a half and why the hillary clinton e-mail story -- just shut up. it's just stupid. it's a big deal. people running her campaign knew it was a big deal. for me at least, there's assurance that john podesta, and all of them straight shooters that saw this and said what in the world? it's really great news that she's actually surrounded herself by people -- >> that's the silver lining in

this sleazy story that there's clinton 2.0 inner circle. the drip, drip, drip continues. the only other good news for hillary if you're trying to defend this or swerve around it is this is baked in. people know her as an untrustworthy politician exclamation point. baked in if the next person from trump university comes out. the thing i was curious about yesterday that i thought the most extreme thing that happened was the bill clinton thing yesterday. i'm curious about you. what i found confusing about that, it's all about pay for play. to me that was just pay and another pay but still no play there. the fact that, okay, the people are trying to drum up money for charity and by the way do you want bill to speak at this thing, i wasn't quite sure where that moved the ball along. in other words, it was quid pro quo but scratch by back and

scratch by back again. what was i missing? >> one of the biggest problems with the story all along and i have always thought that this was a huge political vulnerability for her, the foundation and questions about where the corporate donations, personal profit making and then public policy. the problem has been that that's been the missing link. what you've seen is a lot of skeezy behavior but not the smoking gun because you can demonstrate that policy had changed at the state department. that link is the link that everyone has been looking for and so for has been absent. you haven't been able to find it. maybe it doesn't exist. >> this reinforces a lot of things that people thought they knew about hillary clinton that was the server was a terrible idea. using clinton foundation to raise money for foreign governments was a terrible idea. she was a cynical calculating politician.

we knew that. she did a two-year focus group before she ran for president and they had to decide whether they want her to fall under hip bad ass or loveable grandma. it's like out of "veep." >> we have a story coming up about how they did 10 or 11 drafts before sending out a tweet. also new from wikileaks hack is one purportedly send in january who served as chief of staff to joe biden and al gore and suggests that the campaign prepare for how to handle bill clinton's personal history with women. the e-mail says we need to set aside time, tomorrow, thursday, to do q and a on the political questions which now seem to be really owning the coverage. with a fourth topic called wjc issues which stood for william jefferson clinton. questions were his conduct relevant to your campaign. b, you said every woman should

be believed. why not the women who accused him? c, will you apologize to the women who were wrongly smeared by your husband and his allies, and d, how is what bill clinton did different from what bill cosby did? another aide responded asking podesta how to handle the questions but no response has been posted. >> what's the date of that e-mail? do we know? >> let me look it up. you guys continue. >> alex, what's the date on that e-mail? >> we're checking. standby. >> why do you ask? >> he was involved in debate prep. my god. they knew there was a problem. this is debate prep. he's preparing her to answer potential questions that would come up in a debate. it strikes me that this is -- if you weren't doing this kind of preparation, it would be political malpractice. >> that was january 12th, which

suggests of course the trump attacks started at the end of december and they were going back and forth. ron klain who is in the running we hear to be hillary's chief of staff, he anticipated questions that were going to be asked and questions that were ultimately asked. >> this is a classic -- that is a nothing to see here e-mail. people know bill clinton has had issues with women and she might be asked about them and he's saying we need to prepare for them. okay. yeah. >> i think he probably prepared her well because those were questions asked ultimately. >> unlike where you are seeing with great deal of clarity something that a lotf people suspected for a long time which is that there was co-mingling of charitable work and bill clinton making money. >> it's like e-mails on the server when clintons stare at

the camera saying this is the most shocking, horrible thing ever. vast right wing conspiracy. so mean and angry on the right and how horrible human beings are and you have people saying these are legitimate questions or these are questions that could come up. we have to prep for them. they weren't legitimate questions than they would say don't answer that. that's garbage, et cetera, et cetera. the server stuff, i think just again for me reassures me that she doesn't have a bunch of yes men and yes women around her. i'm sure i'll get in trouble with that from republicans. it's just the case. it's very -- i've said it before. it's very reassuring. there will be another e-mail that said we're going to set this all up. so suckers will believe that we're upset by this. >> okay. we'll be right back with must read opinion pages.

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>> my family has served this nation in uniform going back to the revolution. i've bled for this nation. i want to be there in the senate when drums of war sound because people are quick to sound the drums of war, and i want to be there to say this is what it cost? this is what you're asking us to do? i'll go. families like mine are the ones that bleed first. >> 30 seconds to rebut. >> i had forgotten that your parents came all of the way from thailand to serve george washington. >> move onto the next question. now your chance. >> okay. i just won. wow. >> she was trying to figure out what senate office building she was going to go to. >> what? that was tammy duckworth and

kirk in a debate last night. she won that. we'll be right back. [child giggling] chd: look, ma. no hands. chdren: "i", "j", "k"...

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>> before the break we played that awkward moment between tammy duckworth and incumbent republican mark kirk. duckworth, who lost both legs and earned a purple heart in the iraq war was born in thailand to a thai mother and american

father who traces his military roots to the revolutionary war. kirk's campaign later issued a statement only partially addressing the comments saying, senator kirk has consistently called represent duckworth a war hero and honors her family's service to this country. that's not what this debate was about. representative duckworth was unable to defend her failures at the va and falsely attacked senator kirk over his record on supporting gay rights. >> the same mark kirk that unendorsed his republican nominee and called him out in paid ads? got you. good luck. >> that kirk statement addresses none of what kirk said. >> just apologize and -- >> not only was it dumb and racist. it didn't make sense. >> something very wrong about it. >> with us now for the must read

op- op-eds, arthur brooks. we'll do peggy noonan. great disappointment of 2016? >> what would that be? >> let me tell you. i didn't include last week what i thought was the most vexing question of 2016. i cut it out for space. i had asserted that donald trump was a nut. but that a sane trump could have won in a landslide. the vexing question. could a nonnutty trump have broken through and captured the imagination of republicans and many democrats? won the nomination? what struck me after the column was that a number of angry trump supporters told me that i didn't get it. he may act like a nut, but he had to be crazy to break through. my question now is what does its answer to tell us about our political future? a hopeful answer is that mr. trump is a reaction to the careful empty consultant crafted

insincerity of the past and the next cycle candidate will be a reaction to the mad, hypercharged undirected electricity of this one. >> i can tell you don't buy it already. with a have you learned from donald trump's success in the republican party? >> let's take on the whole thing. could he make it if he's not nuts? it's pretty dubious to say that, yes, he could. why? number one, if he weren't nuts he wouldn't have been treated like a reality show. he got an earned media share of 80% all of the way through the primaries. >> if any of us set our hair on fire, the media is going to cover it. >> the other 16 guys get 20%. he gets 80% on cnn using data that we see. look, when he was down against kasich and cruz i remember he was doing this put the camera on him and let it roll for 90 minutes. >> let me stop you there. you talk about cnn.

we came under heavy criticism as well for having him on the show a lot. you know what? we announced on the show, and i think this is a lesson. we announced to every candidate. you don't like trump coming up. pick up the phone. give us a call. we'll have you on. you know, lindsey graham was the only person -- >> he came on. >> markets work. i understand. >> what i'm saying is maybe the lesson for candidates is don't run, don't hide. don't be scared. get out there. >> you don't like it, go on "morning joe." i got it. >> or cnn. don't hide in your little cove. >> it was an 80/20 deal. that was the intense interest had to do with that. primaries when donald trump was doing in a rally pretending to do john kasich. have you ever seen this guy eat? he eats like a dog and then cnn cuts away to footage of john kasich eating.

it's a show. it's a fantastic show. that's behavior. the really interesting thing is -- >> what's the lesson? >> the lesson from this is if you want -- look, you said this consistently on the over the past six months. if you want to actually win, you have to speak to the concerns that people have. we have two kinds of republicans. we have republicans who speak to the concerns that people have and then those who are normal, right? you have to be both. i remember you were telling somebody that they needed to be a populist. but really what that means is you need to have a set of economic policies and rhetoric that's aspirational that makes people necessary. >> the problem is with that formula, republicans have part of it down but not the other part. >> they don't have the other part. >> where do we find the fusion? you're not going to like when i

say this. how do we have fusion of aei and hard populism on trade? horde populism on tax policy? a lot came in in '94 that were a mix. i don't know why hedge funders pay 14% tax rate. that's offensive to me. i have a feeling if i'm feeling that as a small government conservative, probably 80% of americans of feeling that. >> let me answer the question by saying if only someone with a populist world view and had good sensibilities about policy and super savvy in media and great head of hair ran for president, is there anybody out there like that? >> willie geist? i don't know willie's politics. >> i don't think you have to have a specific trade or immigration policy that's very populist or not very populist. i think that you have to have a world view and aspirational

leadership approach that says i believe that everybody is necessary to this economy. we're leaving people behind. i have a way to address this. and maybe you're more open on trade or less open on trade but reason you and i came into the conservative movement in the first place was because of ronald reagan. i grew up in a liberal household in seattle which is redundant. i was in high school. ronald reagan was running for president. i remember looking at it and saying he loves me. what's up with that? that was because he was an aspirational leader. >> john heilemann, we have to go to break. you want to talk. >> we have to go to break. >> we'll hold arthur over. can you stay a little longer? >> i would love to. >> sam stein doesn't feel that way. >> get rid of sam. >> should we kick him off the island. how has this morning been for you? >> it's been okay. fine. nothing special. >> what have you been doing in

columbus for the last hour? >> i've been sitting here listening to you guys talk. >> do you like arthur brooks? he seems like a smart guy. >> i had a question for him, you know, but if we have to go to break, we have to go to break. >> sam, can we hold sam over just for one tiny question. his mom is going to get pissed off at us if we don't. >> sam's face is like the sad octopus face. he's an emoji right now. >> coming up -- sad bearded o octopus. >> before you make fun, think of donald trump just going tweet and it's totally inappropriate. sometimes it takes thought, people. and governor mike pence -- >> it takes a village to do a tweet. not for donald though. >> words matter, people. you are not going to make fun of this. >> just call them neurotic.

>> you don't call them hysterical neurotic bad messes. >> that's what he called her. we'll be right back. ople would me idifferent countries that raveled, what is your nationalitand i d always answer hispanic. when i got my ancestrdna sus it was a shoer. i'everhi. i'm fr all nations. uld ok at forms now anwonderwhat di mar? causi'm everything d i marked other

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e goodews? the's ill time for a solution. ask the ides for a plan to secure r future. >> if people wonder, yes, hillary clinton is my friend. she's been a friend to me and barack and malia and sasha and bill and hillary clinton have been supportive from the very day my husband took the oath of office when you hear folks

talking about a global conspiracy and saying that this election is rigged, understand that they are trying to get you to stay home. they are trying to convince you that your vote doesn't matter. just for the record, in this country, the united states of america, the voters decide our elections. they've always decided. voters decide who wins and who loses period end of story. >> there is a global conspiracy. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's friday, october 28th. still with us -- >> it's to get sam stein to cut his beard. people working together from all over the world. >> managing editor of bloomberg politics, john heilemann and contributing opinion writer at "the new york times" arthur brooks. senior political editor and white house correspondent for huffington post sam stein and joining the conversation on capitol hill, white house correspondent for "the wall street journal" carol lee back with us. good to have you.

>> sam, talking about the global conspiracy to get your beard cut off. >> he had a question for arthur. >> go ahead. >> we were talking about peggy's column and whether a saner trump could have emerged. arthur, you know, you're in the movement here. as i read the primary, what i thought was that trump really excelled for two reasons. one was his position on immigration to be blunt about it. he was talking in ways that the republican primary voters responded really well to. second was how he responded to republican elected officials in d.c. where he said they hadn't been getting the job done and failed at their tasks and those seemed to be two recipes that did well in a primary but couldn't necessarily translate all that well in a general election. if that's the case, if you have to do that one thing for a primary and you're kind of screwing yourself for a general election, how do you go about mixing the party so incentive structures are reversed where you're doing something like jeb

bush said where you're willing to sacrifice for the general election? >> that's a great question. i appreciate that. i think that the magic wasn't what he said about immigration or elites in washington. the magic is trump was the one that said i'll fight for you and your family. there weren't enough people saying i'll fight for you and your family. you don't have to say specifically that about immigration or trade or foreign policy. you have to convince people you're going to fight for people and their families. >> the thing i noticed as a candidate that surprised me. you walk into a room. doesn't matter what you're wearing. whether you're wearing a suit. you walk into a room and people get it. and i noticed that early on. they sense you're going to fight for them and it's not canned and hokey. doesn't matter what -- it matters what you say but people will give -- i had a lot of people come up to me saying i

disagree with you on 80% of the issues i voted for you because you're going to fight for us. >> do you think that someone can move through -- i want to be clear. if someone is enough of a fighter and comes off as enough of a populist, you think they can make it through the republican party by still supporting comprehensive immigration reform? i don't see that. >> i do. but you have to explain it in a way that you're not on the defensive. republicans used to look at democrats and laugh because they were always on the defensive. i use the example he doesn't like when i use it but john kerry voted for the war before i voted against it. that's the sort of thing that democrats used to always get tangled up in. now it's republicans getting tangled up in immigration reform. background checks. these issues that the overwhelming majority of americans support and we're explaining why we're still living in 1971. >> let's look at the facts here for a second. 80% of the american population

has had zero percent increase in the past eight years. that's the truth. when economists like me say 2.5% income increase or net income increase in the country 2.5% economic growth rate, that's a lie. 0% for bottom 80%. someone has to recognize that and say i'll fight to make that different. only guy that does it says by the way my lusolutions are isolationism and restrictism and shutting down straight, i get it. he has solutions. they aren't right but other ones aren't talking about the fact there's this discomfort. you can walk into a room -- >> i want to be clear and we have to go to news. when you say he has solutions, you're not saying they're your solutions. that's what the voter is saying. he's fighting for us. >> peggy noonan says if he were not nuts, he would get elected. i think that he came in and said you know i'm nuts.

that's why you like me. i'm going try big things and i'm going to be fighting for you. take that. do it with the kind of policies that i believe will actually work and then you might have magic. >> i agree with that. donald trump will return to arizona for a seventh time this weekend, which according to the arizona republic is a record for a gop nominee in a state that voted for the republican in all but one election since 1952. this as both candidates head to iowa tonight. trump in cedar rapids. cli clinton in des moines. a new poll shows clinton jumping seven points since last month into a tie. 44% to 44%. gary johnson dropping six points to 4%. the new poll on georgia also shows a 6-point swing in clinton's direction. trump barely ahead 44% to 43%. and in north carolina, clinton leading by four points. 47% to trump's 43%.

>> no good news for donald trump in any of the early swing states. >> there's not a lot of good news in there. if you want to look at something perhaps that captures where we are in the race, it's iowa. a state that donald trump should win that donald trump must win just in the last month hillary clinton is up seven points there. if iowa, arizona, we saw georgia, six-point swing over the last month there, if those are honest to goodness swing states, donald trump has no chance to win. >> i actually think, john heilemann, let's say a rising tide lifts all boats and trump goes up three, four, five points. let's just say that. it's not going to happen in ten days. let's say it did. i still sense that north carolina could actually be his waterloo. that's just a state -- it's pulling away from him. it's the sort of state like colorado that just demographically is set up to break against his politics. >> it's the ultimate swing state. the only state in 2008 and 2012 where barack obama won in 2008 and lost in 2012. very narrowly between those two.

and the state is changing rapidly in the sense that there's more college educated voters there. college educated white voters and demographic mix. winston-salem. it's one of those states like virginia that looks a lot more like what america now looks like. so she seems to have had narrow lead there throughout and again it's one of the states that if he does not win, there's really no path for him. to me the most interesting thing that we saw yesterday and there's been a lot of focus on this voter suppression piece of the bloomberg business piece that my colleagues wrote where you have trump people say our strategy now is voter suppression. the more interesting piece of that story was the part that says trump has been doing more polling and more data analytics that people think and people on the record saying we know we're losing. we know that the race is basically gone. and that their actual internal perception -- whether donald

trump knows it but within the campaign people look at the data have now concluded what everyone else has concluded which is there's no path for him to win and you have a desperate casting about for some path. they think new hampshire is gone. they know pennsylvania is gone. they know colorado is gone. people inside the campaign say maybe if we could somehow win new mexico which is state that's not been a swing state for a long time. democrats have won that state for successful elections. whether it's daunting in donald trump's head is another question. within the campaign people looking at the data that they put together internally understand where this is headed. >> hillary clinton has held a steady lead in pennsylvania but real clear politics has moved it to the tossup category on its electoral map as latest average has tightened to five points. earlier this week the average deemed texas to be a tossup as well. but there still is no apparent major clinton investment in that state. meanwhile, we're getting our last look into the campaign

fund-raising numbers before the election and hillary clinton more than doubles donald trump in cash on hand in the homestretch. in the first three weeks of october, trump raised 61 million while clinton took in 101 million. clinton outspent trump 87 million for him on 125 million for her, and in cash on hand, trump has 67.6 million while clinton in the final stretch has 153.5 million. >> that's a lot of cash. >> this is just another way in which she has the advantage broadly. i think you will -- it's kind of plays into donald trump's narrative that he's the underdog that the system is against him and that she's out to just raising money. he was criticizing her ahead of

the debate because she was raising money. this is another way in which she can put money in a lot of places and force him to fight in places that republicans traditionally would not have to fight this close to the election and you'll see him doing that. >> you look at the fact that the clinton campaign was in north carolina yesterday playing big. the trump campaign is going to arizona right now for a record seventh time. not a good tell of the tape there. it looks like she really is going for the big win. >> she is. you've heard -- i was out with president obama earlier this week, and he was talking about we don't want to just win, we want to win big, and they feel very good about a state like arizona in particular. not so much georgia this time around. definitely arizona. and you look at what the trump campaign is doing and you saw donald trump in washington, d.c. this week, which is not a place that he would need to be

spending time this close to an election. and you see mike pence was out in utah saying republicans need to come home. they're fighting in all of these places that traditionally you wouldn't have to and it just makes it -- it again underscores what you were talking about earlier which is that it's a narrow path at this point. >> here's the interesting point of money news. does donald trump know that he's lost and our friend nick confessore reporting on these financial filings, the amount of cash donald trump put into his own campaign in the first three weeks of october, zero dollars. if he had been putting in a couple million, they stopped fund-raisi fund-raising. shut down their fund-raising operation. it would be a suggestion he

knows it's over too. >> vice president joe biden is in the running for secretary of state should hillary clinton win on november 8th. the democratic nominee is considering the former chair of the senate foreign relations committee for that role. according to politico, neither clinton nor her aides have informed biden that he is on their short list. they also report another handful of other names being discussed including former undersecretary of state wendy sherman. former deputy of state bill burns. former under secretary of state and political affairs under george w. bush nick burns and retired admiral james stavridis. >> great names on that list. >> biden -- would biden do that? >> if nothing else, it's a good signal by the clinton campaign to obama folks that we're going to continue the legacy. >> republican nominee donald trump addressed biden's recent remarks that he would like to take trump behind the gym to

punish him for remarks that trump made. >> biden said he would like to take me behind the gym. you know what you do with biden? you go like this. he would fall over. tough guy. mr. tough guy. mr. tough guy. a little bit and he's gone. another beauty. can you imagine if i ever made that statement? donald trump is a bully. he threatened vice president biden. donald trump is a bully. can you imagine? he can say it. everyone thought that was a wonderful statement. >> mika? >> he makes a good point. i think if it was the other way around, there would be lots of news analysts going he incited

violence. good god gracious be. >> you're doing a donald trump imitation. >> i'm actually imitating some people we know very well. >> it is true. there would be all of the articles about how this sort of suggests a fascism to american politics inciting violence against a sitting vice president and how dare he. this is the low point of american politics. >> isn't it kind of excellent at that moment in the campaign less than two weeks out that suddenly joe biden is at the center of everything? he and donald trump, is he going to be secretary of state? you thought it was over for joe biden and yet here he is again right in the middle of everything ten days out from election day. >> you have two guys. i don't know. you have two 70 year olds saying they want to beat each other up behind a gym. >> you think i'm better than i am? you think you're stronger than

me. >> 2016 has come full circle. you know, biden secretary of state issue is an interesting -- if he is indeed on the list, it's an interesting thing to look at. he said he does not want to go back into the next administration. i think he would have to take some time and take a look at this if it was actually real. you guys will remember in 2008 during transition, joe biden's wife had said that she let slip in an interview he was under consideration by obama as secretary of state. he has a big foreign policy portfolio in this administration. he knows all of the leaders in iraq. it's something that he really thrives on. my understanding is that this is indeed the first that biden folks have heard of it and so interesting to see how he responds to questions about it. >> you know what i think? after 40 years on a government

salary, joe biden is going to go make a lot of speeches and make himself and his family some money. >> and work on that cancer moon shot. >> and beating up -- >> i think he would take this job in a heartbeat. >> carol lee -- >> and beating up senior citizens behind gymnasiums. how do you juggle all that? picking fights with 70 year olds. >> lamest fight club ever. >> that is pretty lame. >> first rule of geriatric fight club -- >> my. >> thank you both. >> this has been a special morning. >> you're adorable, sam. >> i'll never forget this morning. ever. never. >> still ahead on "morning joe," sean spicer of rnc joins us as

does mike murphy and the rage. >> bad on fridays. he shows his fangs and starts to froth at the mouth. f bombs fly out of his mouth. he's like a wolverine. i don't know how they have him here. >> steve kornacki. the rage. rage against the machine. quite a scare last night on mike pence's plane as it goes off the runway at laguardia airport but he and everyone onboard emerged unharmed. he'll join us on the state of the race when "morning joe" comes right back. you workt ge? , i do. u guys are workingn me pretty big stuff over there, right? li new language for crazy-big, chgiacs. well, not me specifically. work on e industri se. so build the worli get it.g machines. you can't talk bee it's sup high-level. you can't talk no, i ac do buthe maches.

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>> you take a look at what's going on where you have pockets of areas of land where you have the inner cities and you have so many things and so many problems and so many horrible, horrible problems. the violence, the death, the lack of education.

no jobs. we're going to work with the african-american community and we're going to solve the problem of the inner city. >> joining the table, we have republican strategist nbc analyst and host of radio free gop podcast mike murphy and msnbc anchor and political correspondent steve kornacki and on capitol hill, sean spicer. >> sean, a lot of talk this morning around the table about this race being over. is this race over? >> not at all. we're in it to win it. i think a lot of these polls in the states and nationally are showing the trend going back into donald trump's favor. you look at absentee ballot returns, it's good news for the republicans. not so good for democrats. a lot of key counties where republicans need to do well, our numbers are up in terms of not just ballots requested but

ballots returned and key counties democrats need to do well in, they're way down on returns from 2012 in state after state. >> sean, it's willie. as a man that knows the map well and studied the path to victory, are you not concerned as chair that arizona, georgia, and iowa now all appear to be swing states for you? >> i'm glad that iowa is a swing state. it was a state that obama carried twice. you look at the map. you're talking about nevada, pennsylvania, michigan. states that obama carried twice that are in play this cycle. so we've actually expanded the map this cycle versus last cycle. i feel very confident about both arizona and georgia though. >> all right. sean spicer being overly optimistic here? >> sean has the hardest job in american politics right now. he's slugging for the republican team. look, you know, iowa is the bright star. that's one that's moved away. they're going to need a lot more iowas to make this thing happen. while the race has tightened a

little, it's gone from upper single digit disaster to a mere six or seven-point drubbing. maybe that trend will continue. i don't see how trump breaks out of the box he's in. he's also the 42% guy and she tends to move between 45 and 48. that looks pretty tough to me. >> so, steve, midweek we had a national poll showing 3%. we had some state polls coming out showing a tightening of the race. you get to the end of the week, doesn't look quite that way. again, this is a day by day thing. your numbers suggest still a long shot for trump and he's, what, 6%, 7% probably down nationally. >> that's what it looks like. six point race. average the polls together the way we do it came to 5.8. call it a six-point race nationally and you're in scenario where you have seven or eight states that you call tossups right now.

every single one of them is a must-win state for donald trump. you can start in north carolina. florida. ohio. iowa. nevada. you could put utah in that tossup category. you could put arizona in that tossup category. congressional district up there in maine. he has to run the table and win all of those and if he does that, he has to find one state that right now looks like a blue state and flip it, whether there's in new hampshire or pennsylvania or wisconsin. something that you look at right now and say i'm just not seeing it. you would have to find one of those. >> a new poll shows trump up by five points. 47 to 42. you look at the map and you are right. iowa, you look at iowa and other states that are in play this year that haven't been in play in the past. he's done better in ohio certainly for most of the campaign than a lot of people expected. look at the past couple of days. his campaign has been fought in utah, north carolina, and now

arizona today for donald trump. doesn't that suggest that republicans are back on their heels? >> i mean, look, governor pence was in utah to do a fund-raiser for a trump victory to raise money for the entire ticket. look, i get it. everyone is trying to nitpick where he goes. hillary clinton was at an adele concert the other night. senator kaine was at the indians game. at the end of the day, they're going to be in those battleground states remaining 12 days making sure we win. we have to go back to two things. the map has expanded since last time. hillary clinton is on defense. if you look at the number of states, when you talk about maine, that hasn't been in play in years. pennsylvania, ohio, obama carried twice. virginia. all of these states are actually part of the equation this time. some of them further than others. they're all within the margin of error. that's important. the map has expanded. when you go to the actual early vote and absentee ballot request and returns, those are favoring republicans not democrats.

again, i think as we enter this final ten days, it's important to look at where the votes are coming from on both sides and right now i think we feel very good about the momentum. last is when you again talk about these polls, it may not be as fast as we would like but in each case the trend is in donald trump's favor. >> all right. sean spicer, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. and i will second what you have to say which is sean has a pretty tough job. >> what else can he say? it's national news if he admits they're going to lose. >> let me ask you this. we read from peggy noonan earlier today wondering if a sane trump could have done better. one thing sean is saying for republicans like us, we look at iowa. let's say befothat we're not supposed to be up by eight points in iowa. you look at ohio. leading comfortably.

mitt was -- there is an opening for the right kind of republican. isn't that one takeaway from this? >> look, if that wave of blowup washington is so strong and it reminds me of when i worked for arnold in california during the recall, that wave is lifting up donald trump who is just a flawed candidate and keeping him at least partially in the race. if you can imagine a trump without all of the trump problems, there was a hunt. the real problem they've got and this is not getting reported enough, is they have a lock on virginia and colorado. that plus the normal democratic states means donald trump not only has to win florida and ohio. he's got to go take a big democraticic state. >> for our party to ever win the white house back again, we have to start winning virginia again and we've got to put colorado in play. >> there was an opportunity a year ago. colorado clinton numbers were bad but not with trump. >> let's talk about the senate quickly. what does this all mean for the

republican candidates? are republicans going to lose the senate? >> that's interesting. this missouri poll you just put up. it looks good shape. look down ballot. i see the poll here. republican is up one tied with the democrat running against him. democrats got lucky in a couple states this cycle where they didn't think they would have a shot in the beginning. indiana, missouri, north carolina, a few states democrats thought they had a shot at and if they don't take ohio, for instance, if they win missouri and that bodes well for their chances. the other thing is i hate to think too long-term here. if they get to 50 or 51, have you looked at the map for 2018? it's a blood bath. >> i would rent furniture if i was a democratic in the senate. don't buy. >> i just can't even look at the

next ten days. >> it took ten drafts to write a single hillary clinton tweet. perspective for you. it took 12 "morning joe" producers to write this tease. >> it's a good tease. >> do we have 12 -- >> we did focus group it for two years and make sure we did it in such a way that didn't suck all of the life out. >> right. that does happen. we'll go inside the layers of the clinton social media machine when "morning joe" continues. ♪ using 60,000 pnts from my chase i card boht all themework... using 60,000 pnts from my chasewire... and plants needed to give my shop... face... neededno one will forg... see what the per of points can do for your business.

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>> while we're talking polls, polls, polls, polls all over the place. new abc/"washington post" poll shows a tightening and when we're ready to bury donald trump, abc shows him plus six since the 22nd. hillary clinton at 48% down two. donald trump at 44% plus six. i've got to say, abc's tracking poll from earlier this week that showed a 12-point race was absolute nonsense. >> the other thing -- >> the internal polls also of both campaigns suggested that the 12-point spread was nonsense. so when you see donald trump plus six, i'm not trying to

explain anything away, at that poll was was an outlier. abc in their tracking poll again shows a four-point race. >> all right. still ahead -- >> throw that one into the fruit salad. mix it up. we're still at, like, 5%, 6%. if you look at trend lines, the trump campaign would see that as a positive. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> i think the good news is that the debates finally allowed republicans to unite around their candidate. the bad news is it's mike pence. >> that was hillary clinton's backhanded compliment to the gop ticket and its vice presidential nominee. governor pence joins the table straight ahead on "morning joe." red 97! set!ed 97! did you say 97?

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one the latest releases by wikileaks reveals the process that goes into the campaign's social media strategy. in april of last year, clinton sent out the following tweet. "every american deserves a fair shot at success. fast food and child care workers shouldn't have to march in streets for living wages. but how much went into that? >> it's a good thought. according to an alleged e-mail chain, up to 12 clinton staffers came up with ten different drafts of that single tweet. here's some of the variations. draft one said every american deserves a fair shot at success with a true living wage. i stand with fast food workers. some felt that was too strong a position to take. in draft two it became this. i applaud fast food workers.

and then a different approach going after ceos in draft number three with corporate profits at record highs it's time for a real raise for all working americans. that idea was scrapped. they went back to the original tweet for draft four and draft five they said the version was too long for the character limit. so you get the idea. >> we get the idea. >> trump does the same thing. when he sent that one out calling me little donny d. a failure. seven drafts. it was miniscule. he puts the same thought. >> you wrote most for him. >> this reminded us of what kathleen miller wrote in august of 2015. it's almost like each time clinton tweets, someone fires up an old diesel generator, listens to it churn away for a while, and then when it's ready, turns,

cups his hands and shouts, all right. here comes the tweet! which actually i remembered that from about a year ago. she nailed it. so a year later -- >> like peggy noonan saying in her piece about how everything is so overthought. >> she's thorough. >> words matter. >> all right. still ahead, governor mike pence is standing by. his campaign plane last night of course skidded off the runway at laaguardia but made it safely t our set this morning. if he can survive that, he can survive donny deutch. we'll be right back. are you t? plan yr ver tiri retiring rered tiretire are you t? with e*ade. i'in vests and as a vested investor in vests i invest with e*trade,

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joining us now just hours after his campaign plane experienced a scary landing at new york city's laguardia airport, republican vice presidential nominee governor mike pence of indiana. how are you doing? >> we're great. we're great. >> are you sure? >> what happened? >> we actually had a ground stop in iowa because it was pretty rough weather out this way, but once we got up in the air, approaching new york very low ceiling. and couldn't see the ground much. when we landed, it was obvious i think to everybody on the plane that the pilots were hitting the brake very hard trying to get the plane stopped.

we felt it fishtailing a little bit and then it slid to the right. it was about ten seconds of uncertainty. we were all fine. i got to commend the first responders out there at laguardia. they were on the scene before the plane stopped rolling. we thanked the pilots. my son is a marine corps aviator. michael likes to say every landing you walk away from is a successful landing. we're very, very blessed. >> thank you for being here with us. >> thankful that everything is okay. marty st. george with jetblue says everyone always calls laguardia third world airport but if they didn't have this, which you brought up, it wouldn't have stopped. >> i learned a lot last night which is at the end of the runway, the brittle concrete that can stop a plane at 80

miles an hour. you can go online and watch on youtube. incredible the life saving mechanisms they have in place. >> on the plane the mud splashed up on the windows. that was our first confirmation that we were off -- >> not a good sign. >> when we came off the plane to see the crumbled runway and to learn from the first responders that's part of the way they intercept. they also told us the fact that the ground was wet and muddy slowed down the aircraft. i have to tell you the outpouring of concern and e-mails and support for us, it's been very moving to us. we're looking forward to being back on the campaign trail today. pennsylvania and north carolina. >> let's talk about that. pennsylvania, north carolina, arizona. a lot of these different states that are sort of being labeled differently these days. the path seems narrower though according to a lot of polls. how do you all see a path to victory at this point?

>> i just think we're going to continue to go out and earn it. i think the american people know this is an election that is as dramatic a choice in a national election as anyone in my lifetime. it's change versus the status quo. the american people, i think, the reason why you see the polls where they are today, i tell people in indianapolis we know a lot about racing. i tell people that we're coming out of the fourth turn here. it's wheel to wheel. we're hammered down. we'll race to the checkered flag and continue to lay out that choice which is that if you want to continue policies of the last 7 1/2 years that stifled american's economy and if you want the kind of ethics that you have seen flowing out of clinton iran corpora incorporated in her years of secretary of state, you can have that but if you want to change the direction of the country and change the direction of our economy and less taxes and less

regulation and repeal obamacare and rebuild our military and stand tall in the world again, that's donald trump for president of the united states. >> a lot of people say the race is over. what do you say to them? >> i just was laughing about th this week. i got up, you know, i tell people, sometimes i have to turn on the television with a stick in the morning because i never know quite what i'm going to read. i saw the headlines, the race is over. it's all but done. it's not what i see out there. when you campaign with donald trump, as i did in cleveland over the weekend, you see tens of thousands of people coming out. almost as many people who can't get into the venues as make it into the venues. when you see, as we had this week, 500 and 1,000 people coming out to hear little old me, this is a movement of the american people. and i truly do believe that millions of americans are just longing to see our country change the direction back to a stronger, more prosperous america. so i sense real momentum, but i

have sensed real momentum since i joined the ticket. >> john? >> we were talking earlier about this story that came out in bloomberg business week yesterday that got an extraordinary amount of access to the trump/pence campaign. one of the things that has attracted a lot of attention is o"from a senior official who said we have three major voter suppression operations under way and details what the operations are related to african-american voters, women voters and some voters on the left. is that okay for your campaign to be involved in voter suppression. >> number one, i haven't read the article. that's -- that's offensive to me, that kind of language. it's not our operation. donald trump and i want every american who has the opportunity to vote to vote in this election. that's our message. to tell the american people that this country really belongs to them. we can have government as good as our people again, but it's going to take all of us. and you saw donald trump this week in charlotte coming out and saying that people that haven't

traditionally voted republican, we have an agenda to bring our cities back, to bring school choice, to bring safety to our streets in our urban areas. this is a message we're sending to everyone, and the mosage to get out and vote and participate. >> the article details what the strategies are. your message to your campaign is if these things are going on within the campaign, they should be stopped? >> right. i have no -- number one, like i said, i haven't read the article. i have never heard anybody in this campaign talk that way. frankly, you know, it was offensive to me to hear that being reported in the news because that's just not the approach donald trump has taken to this campaign. not the approach we're taking. we're reaching out to every american. one of the remarkable things about this campaign is how many independents, you look at the polls, how many independents have been drawn to donald trump's message about breaking gridlock in washington, d.c. how many democrats. i mentioned how proud we are to

have support from democrats at the rallies we do. i see hands in the air of people who want torig themselves as members of the democratic party. also, a big part of the message this week, i was out west and stopped in to nevada and colorado and utah. it's also time for republicans to come home. you know, we wept through a 17-way primary, and my message to all of our republican friends and conservative friends out there is it's time to come home. it's time to elect donald trump as president of the united states. it's time to re-elect republican majorities in the house and senate. it's time for republicans to come home and make sure hillary clinton is never elected president of the united states. >> well, there was a moment acouple weeks ago at one of your events where someone in the crowd said i'm ready for a revolution. you quickly said don't say that, which i think was an important moment. someone like nat is responding to the candidate at the top of the ticket saying the election is rigged, putting the media aside, he said the polling is rigged. as the governor of the state of indiana, someone who has oefr seen and run elections state by

state, do you believe polling places will be rigged on election day? >> well, i certainly hope, i hope that's not the case. but willie, you and i both know that in our lifetime, there have been many instances of voter fraud. >> some. >> in individual polling places and some jurisdictions. and when donald trump talks about a rigged election, we're talking as much about the documented bias in the national media that seems to be doing half of hillary clinton's work for her every day. >> he has said specifically polling places. >> voter irregularities. the answer to that is citizen participation. one of the things i have said to people is that our elections are administered on a state level and there's ways for citizens to be respectfully involved in insuring the vote. we want a victory on election, but we want a victory for american democracy. >> you're confident voted will counted fairly on election day? >> we need to make sure that is the case. insuring the integrity of the

vote is in the interest of every american and we're going to do our part to see to that. >> is there anything your candidate can do to make it easier for republicans to come home? >> i think donald trump has the right message at the recognize time in this country. i think continuing to carry that message -- >> you know what i mean. >> with his unique energy and unique way of doing that -- >> but mike, a lot of people have been allies politically for the last 20 years still are refusing to vote for him. and not only are they saying they're not going to vote for them. they're questioning the integrity of other conservatives who do vote for him. what do you say with ten days to go, and what can donald trump do to move some of those undecideds into the republican column? >> well, number one, i do want to recognize, i mean, how many people were running in the primary? like 150 or 200. i lost count watching from afar. but they say in nascar, rubbing is racing. you're going to bang fenders in

these tough primaries and there's tough feelings out there for some people. i think the message that donald trump is delivering, rebuilding our military, of cutting taxes, repealing obamacare, having tougher and smarter trade deals, having a supreme court of the united states that will uphold our constitution, and have appointments to the supreme court like the late antonin scalia. >> you think republicans are going to come home? >> i think they are. everywhere i go, i'm hearing again and again from people that are saying it wasn't my first choice, but i'm there. and i think it's the reason why you see this race is wheel to wheel. it's going to be a sprint to the finish, but i can't wait to get back out on the campaign trail and tell the story of a man who i believe will be the next president of the united states. >> all right. mike pence, thank you so much. >> thank you, governor pence. >> and it's nice to survive donny deutsch when you don't go

to him. we're told to wrap up. very sorry. america is better because he didn't ask mike pence a question. listen, thank you so much if being with us. and we're so glad everything is all right for you and your family. >> ahead in our next hour, rock and roll hall of famer david crosby will join us on set, and kristen welker joins us live on michelle obama and hillary clinton's first joint campaign appearance. "morning joe" will be right back. proud of you, son. ge! mafacturer. proud of you, son. well that's why i dug is out f you. it's your grandpappy'sam proud of you, son. and wou have ed you tdug it m a l thi..t. ye g gmakespowerful machines. it's your grandpappy'sam

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welcome back to "morning joe." it's friday, october 28th. 8:00 on the east coast. >> it's almost halloween. what where you going to be? >> i don't know. what you going to be, willie? >> i haven't thought about it yet. this weekend, i'll pull it together. what are you going for? >> i'm going as donny deutsch. syringes everywhere. and a t-shirt that just says "hgh." >> i'm going as a princess. >> ew. >> that doesn't require any dressing up. >> i didn't say it was halloween. i'm going as a princess. >> he has a tutu on right now. >> i'm still thinking about the manscaping thing you brought up, which is really upsetting. >> all right, with us on set, managing editor of bloomberg politics, john heilemann, ad man donny deutsch, and senior political editor and white house correspondent for the "huffington post," sam stein. sam, i think we have done pretty well with the air time. >> this is the worst show that

you have ever done. the worst. >> that takes a lot of doing after doing nine and a half years of really bad shows. >> but this is it. >> all right. >> well, welcome back to "morning joe." >> the latest national poll puts hillary clinton ahead. the pew research center finds clinton at 46% with registered voters. donald trump at 40%. gary johnson with 6%, and jill stein at 3%. and donald trump is going to return to arizona for a seventh time this weekend, which according to the arizona republic, is a record for a gop nominee in a state that has voted for the republican in all but one election since 1952. this as both candidates head to iowa tonight. trump in cedar rapids. clinton in des moines. it's a state where trump has been leading. but a new poll shows clinton jumping seven points since last month into a tie. 44% to 44%. gary johnson dropping six points to 4%.

a new q poll in georgia also shows a six-point swing in clinton's direction. trump barely ahead, 44% to her 43%. johnson at 8%, in north carolina, quinnipiac's poll has clinton leading by four points. 47% to trump's 43%. according to the latest early voting analysis, over 13.7 million people have already voted nationwide. more than half of which have been cast in 12 battleground states. and the new q poll gives clinton the edge with early voters, ahead of trump by six points in georgia, 34 points in iowa, 28 points in north carolina. >> john heilemann, state of the race. well, let's just talk about at the end of the week. we had polls that have shown 13 points or 12. there's been a fox news poll that has it at three. actually, the pew poll feels about right at six. these three battleground states that have come out, not any good news for donald trump.

>> not any good news anywhere for donald trump, i would say. the race was basically over at the beginning of the week, and closer to over now because you're passing each day, and i think -- i don't really love the statistical what the percentage is. i'm a little skeptical about that, but it seems about that -- i mean, does not want to declare the race to be fully and completely over, but she's pretty solidly as a six or seven. if you look at nationally, she's at about six or seven lead, and the battlegrounds states that are tighter, where she's starting to pull ahead, and places like georgia, where it's a statistical dead heat, if we wake up on election day and she's won georgia, she'll be close to 400 electoral votes. >> willie, there are a lot of the swing states are tight. but when the swing states are north carolina, arizona, and georgia, sdaesh. >> which are not really swing states. >> which are not usually swing

states. when they are those states, you know you have a republican that is really campaigned back on their heels. >> those states are nonnegotiable for donald trump to win. those are not supposed to be swing states. georgia, you can throw iowa in there which is tight now as well. texas was never, i don't think, ever going to really go democratic this time, but the fact that that's close should be a warning sign as well. so i think that pew poll that shows it at six points nationally captured the average. >> feels ability right. >> probably where the race is. but trump has to lockdown the three states that we just talked about. georgia, arizona, iowa, and then win the honest to goodness swing states which he's not winning those either. if you look at north carolina, obviously, virginia, down double digits. colorado, pennsylvania, you can go all over the map. >> donny, when it's three weeks out, that's one thing. you don't just say it's over when it's three weeks. when it's two weeks it's still not over. now we're ten days out, maybe. ten days out. he's going to have to pick up, you know, five points nationally in ten days.

to get those swing states going his way. or people, a lot of people will have to be lying to pollsters which just doesn't happen to that degree. so i'm with john. i just don't say anything is ever over. ever, ever. but at the end of this week, there were some polls out midweek that were good for him in swing states. these are not. >> yeah, first of all, let's talk about the polls that we have to understand that somebody is wrong within the margin of error, if we have 12 points, between 3 and 12, we'll have new rules about polls. >> you look at what happened in the 2012 race. i mean, gallup had romney up. >> yeah, i will say it was interesting. these polls today are a little bit of a difference in the last day or two because to your point, you started to see tightening. i'm curious, the last two days for trump have been the best two days, or the last best two or three days in his campaign in that basically he's been somewhat invisible. we had the obama premiums going

up 25%. we have a next level of wikileaks. probably the most severe yet, and i would not be surprised if in another day or two, we don't see the polls tighten a point or two. >> there is, and by the way -- >> natural elasticity that happens. >> people go, oh, he's going to be at 37%. no, there's always this tightening. america is a 50/50 nation usually. so now -- >> if you have watched the polls, when he goes a few days without dropping all over himself, it comes back like that. as you talked all during yesterday, at the end of the day, going back to the battleground states. even if you do the hail mary in ery state, he's at 265, and there's no path without new hampshire. that's not happening. so yes, and i said this the day billy bush thing, i think the election ended that day, but there's no good news. >> let's be clear. there's not any tightening in the polls. >> i'm saying in the next two days. >> just let me finish. in iowa, for instance, iowa, all

the traditional battleground states are the states trump has done best. iowa and ohio are the places he's done the best. that's a seven-point jump for her if the q poll is correct, is indoicative of not tightening. >> from last month to this month. >> that's a trend towards her getting -- accelerating her broader lead in the race. >> you could look midweek. there were some monmouth polls out. there were other polls out. there was the fox poll out. i saw cnn all night talking about a tightening race, a tightening race. again, i think, i love the people that say don't look at one poll. you've got to look at a collection of polls. that's why i think these news organizations, and i don't know if we do it or not. i think we do, but everybody is sort of doing the poll of polls. you know, pretty smart thing to do. go ahead. >> no, no, sam is a loud swallower. we have been listening to you drirnging your coffee. >> are you noticing sam is going through something in his life?

sam, is there something you want to talk about with everybody? you seem just a little confused, lost. >> are you okay, sam? do you know where you're going? do you like the things your life is showing you? >> what is this show? where are we? >> you just answered yes. >> ask him a question. >> oh, sam. we've upset you. if you listen to trump on the -- >> sam's mom, by the way, is going to kick my ass the next time we see her. >> okay. >> go ahead, sam. >> funny story about that. >> i want to hear the story. >> we do want to hear that. >> i was at a rally, attending a trump rally in springfield, ohio, and talking to a bunch of attendees about what happened potentially on the day after the election. the "new york times" had a big story about rioting in the streets. first, people at the trump rally, kind people. they don't care about rioting. they understand the stakes of the election. they're very invested in it. there's no blood in the streets.

but a bunch of people came up and they were like, we see you on "morning joe." it's great, but we're most interested in how your mom feels about the air time joe is giving you. so my mom is sort of a minor celebrity in this drama. >> i love it. >> willie, you were going to ask me something. >> you can just talk if you want to. i was going to say, if you listen to trump on the campaign trail, he shines a light on florida and ohio. we're doing great in ohio. look at florida where it's tight. that's true if you look at the numbers. when you look at everything around it, in a presidential race, you say, florida, ohio, focus on those. but it's the things happening around him in the other states that matter. in north carolina, that it won't matter if he can somehow pull off ohio and florida if he loses all of the other states we have been talking about this morning. >> i don't think people -- i mean, that's the depth of his issue here, which is that even if he got ohio, even if he got florida, even if he got north carolina, somehow salvages arizona, georgia, iowa, nevada, we're going down the list.

so long as he wlloses colorado, new hamp shrx, and doesn't pick up the district in maine, he's done. this is how monumental the task is for him. and the polls are one thing. he comes into this final stretch of the campaign, the numbers came in last night. he and his committees have $119 cash on hand. clinton has $162 million cash on hand. that's so much more money that she has to play with. finally, we kind of forget this sometimes, but he doesn't just have to be tight in the polls heading into the election. he probably has to be up a few percentage points owing to the fact he has not invested in a robust ground game operation that she has. and so, you know, you look at some of the numbers of offices that she has opened in arizona, for instance, and even texas. and she dwarfs what he's doing in terms of infrastructure. this task is monumental. it's going to take something intense, national change of focus, and i don't see it happening right now. >> i thought he bounced back. >> you just push the button and

he goes. like his mother has anything to complain ubt today. you're exactly right, sam. i want to thank you. i'm serious about that. i want to thank you about what you say about the trump supporters. i read the "new york times," a paper that i read every day, but when i see headlines, trump backers see revolution if clinton wins, it's deeply insulting to people like my brother, people like nicolle's parents. and to the people that you see and the people that most people see that go out to these rallies. yes, there are always bad apples in every crowd, but to suggest they're like these people, the bundies, who where just can't even begin to imagine how any jury on this planet could acquit those people. i'm sure that all of the jurors were talking about they love the constitution. how about the rule of law? there is no such thing at the rule of law i guess in that. it's absolutely staggering to me that the jury acquitted all of

those defendants in the case who just basically spit at the rule of law. but anyway, sam, back to your point. >> sure. >> there's doing to be no blood in the streets. it's deeply offensive that the national media is pushing this narrative. it's just, like sarah palin after getting just bashed by the press for months, she was getting 10,000 people at rallies at the end of her campaign. joe biden was getting like 47. and so they had to go through the crowds and find somebody that called her a socialist. and claimed it was the end of american democracy. just stop. >> joe, there are -- >> once again, i agree. >> just stop. just stop. >> joe, i'm not talking to you -- >> just stop insulting trump supporters. >> there are 64% of trump supporters that do believe the election is going to be rigged. that doesn't translate to muskets being taken out of shelves. having said that, though, if you go, that's two thirds of his 40 million. 10 tens and tens of millions of people.

>> do you know that over 50% of democrats believed at one point, politico reported, that george w. bush knew about the 9/11 attacks before they happened and was complicit in the attacks on america? >> and? >> we can all come up with -- >> just the simple fact. no, this is a simple fact. >> nobody is going to take up muskets. >> is it beyond the pale, having seen the bad apples, some of the rage. you have talked to the reporters who have been at every one of the rallies and -- let me finish, please. they say they feel it. so no, do i think they're going -- >> they feel it. >> joe, joe -- >> they feel it. sam -- >> is there -- >> yes, there's rage. >> okay. >> there's rage on both sides. >> joe, you're saying rage is equal on both sides? i guess i have been watching something different. >> if you could let me talk. if you talk to reporters who actually dared to cross bernie sanders and the things that were

said by bernie sanders sorters who we love and respect bernie, there was rage there. there's rage on both sides, but the national media only sees it through their own goggles. there's only rage on one side all the time and one party that ever believes elections are fixed. forget the fact we have only won two elections, republicans, in 87 years and democrats freaked out and said we fixed both of them. sam, you were there last night. talk about the rage and hatred and the blood in the streets. by the way, sam, for the record, my first campaign slogan "the streets will flow with the blood of the unbelievers." i have a bumper sticker for you. go ahead. >> a winner slogan if there ever was one. >> got 62%. >> it could be just that, i mean, ohio, and people are super nice, but we talked to like, you know, maybe two dozen people about -- we asked them, let's say you wake up november 9th and your guy has lost. what is that day like for you? you know, of course, any reporting is anecdotal, but

these people were by and large understanding of how democracy works. respectful of the electoral process. and you know, they do think that there's some tilting on the scales for hillary clinton when it comes to media coverage and so on and so forth. but they said, you know, life goes on. i have other things in my life i have to worry about. jobs, health care, religion, stuff like that. and i recognize that i'm going to have to go back and i'll have to work doubly as hard to elect a republican in 2018, 2020. that's being said, i think it's objectively true that trump has stirred up a lot more animus in ways that aren't traditional of a campaign, but from what i got from my attending this rally in springfield where i sat in the audience, not the press pen. these people understand how this works, and i just don't see how there's going to be blood in the streets. >> still ahead on "morning joe," a guy who gives barnicle a run for his money when it comes to the term legendary. david crosby joins us for his

new album and his take on the 2016 race. first, john podesta asked hillary clinton's campaign manager about the private e-mail server. did you have any idea about the depth of this story? we'll talk about the new revelations from the wikileaks hacks. here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> getting rid of some of the snow ate least. did you see this yesterday? it was in pennsylvania, in upstate new york. we even had a report of about 1 1/2 inches of snow around the capital district of albany, new york. this is from saratoga springs. some leaves on the trees but no reports of power outages. this morning, snow left over in maine. heavy soaking rain for areas of new england. this area has been in the drought. we picked up an inch of rain throughout new england. we also know the california drought is going on year six, the big soaking rains this morning, very welcome. right now, pushing up into the mountains. the good. another dose of rain for you on sunday. let's take you through the weekend forecast, and the other big story is the warmth. it waw 100 in phoenix yesterday.

the latest they have ever recorded in the season a 100-degree day. today, 94. look how warm through the day today, this is saturday, like a repeat. 80s widespread through texas and the south. st. louis add 84. baseball games look really good there. temperatures warm in chicago. look at saturday, high of 73 degrees. d.c. goes from 73 on saturday to sunday's forecast near 80 degrees. so this is incredible warmth lasting a long time here. usually the cold fronts come down and cool us off. we will deal with wet weather on sunday in the west coast to theithe intermountain west. wrigley field, the place to be. tonight's game, windy, 63 degrees. pretty mild for this time of year. saturday, we'll deal with showers but it is warm. sunday, partly cloudy and goo. all in all, a fantastic weekend, and it look like halloween is going to be nice for many of us, also. washington, d.c., get ready for a beautiful warm late fall weekend. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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there is a lot more insight into the rift inside the clinton campaign over the handling of her private e-mail server and how some in her inner circle were caught off guard by it,kil of e-mails. the latest hacked from the personal account of hillary clinton's campaign manager, john podesta. these e-mails have not been independently authenticated by nbc news. >> the wind up, the deliver a, and now the pitch. >> okay, the day a "new york times" story was published last year exposing hillary clinton's use of the private e-mail account and server and exchange between podesta and future campaign manager robby mook shows they were blindsided. podesta allegedly asked mook, did you have any idea of the

depths of this story, to which mook responded, nope, we brought up the existence of e-mails in research this summer, but we're told everything was taken care of. in a separate exchange between clinton ally neera tanden and potesta from july of last year, tanden changes the conversation from upcoming polls saying, do we actually know who told hillary she could use a private e-mail? and has that person been drawn and quartered? like whole thing is bleeping insane, with tanden using an expleti expletive. >> i can guess what that was. i have used it before. >> have you really? >> just to focus on clinton's interview with andrea mitchell in which she said she was sorry for the controversy over the revelations of the server but did not apologize for her decision to use it. tanden allegedly pushed for her to formally apologize. saying, everyone wants her to apologize, and she should. apologies are like her achilles heel. but she didn't seem like a blank

in the interview, and she said the word sorry. she will get to a full apology in a few interviews. >> let's talk about -- um, about -- >> look. >> the revelations. you were saying it makes you feel better. >> i remember being absolutely stunned about the private server. i remember the press conference that she had, and even commentators going, well, it must have been secure. there was so much assumption going on here, when it just s m seems like they did something so out of bounds to obviously protect some sort of interest. now, it all seems very clear what was going on. >> and it is good to know that -- >> someone inside -- >> in fact, the people running the campaign. >> people who want her to win, like by the way, me. >> knew it was wrong and were very upset by it. >> very wrong. >> which makes all the hacks on the outside saying there's

nothing to see here, move along, for the last year, year and a half and while the -- shut up, yeah, it's just stupid. it's a big deal. and people running her campaign knew it was a big deal. >> they knew it. >> but there's -- for me at least, there's assurance that john podesta, robby mook, of course, nera, all of them straight shooters that saw this and said, what in the world? >> worried. >> it's really great news that she's actually surrounded herself by people -- >> that's the silver lining in this very sleazy story that there's a clinton 2.0 inner circle. the drip, drip, drip. the only good news for hillary clinton is if you're trying to defend this or swerve around it is this is already baked in. people know her as an untrustworthy politician, exclamation point. this is baked in the same way if the next person from trump university comes out. the thing i was curious about yesterday with -- i thought the most extreme thing that happened

was the bill clinton inc. thing. john, i'm curious, what i found -- what's the word i'm looking for, confusing about that. it's pay for play. for me, that was pay and another pay, but there was still no play there. the fact that, okay, the people are trying to drum up money for a charity, and oh, by the way, do you want bill to speak at this thing? i wasn't quite sure where that moved the ball along. in other words, it was quid pro quo, but it was scratch my back, now scratch my back again. not i'll scratch your back. what was i missed in that? i'm not defending it. >> one of the biggest problems with the story all along has been, i have always thought that this was a huge political vulnerability for her, the foundation and the questions about where the philanthropic work, the personal profit making, and then public policy. the problem has been that that has been the missing link, right? what you have seen is a lot of skeezy behavior.

but not what would be this, quote, smoking gun. if you could demonstrate that policy had changed att the state department, that link is the link that everyone has been looking for, and so far, has been absent. >> coming up on "morning joe" -- >> if people wonder, yes, hillary clinton is my friend. she's been a friend to me and barack andalia and sasha and bill and chelsea have been embracing and supportive from the very day my husband took the oath of office. >> what a difference eight years makes, from rivals to sharing the stage. kristen welker joins us with a live report on where the clinton campaign goes from here after two first ladies campaign together for the first time. y st, en you tell our friendabout your job, malet's play up the digital part. but it's a manufacturing j. yeah, well ge is doing a lot of cool things digitally to help machin communite,j.

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coming up on "morning joe" -- >> the relevant question is how do we elect a president of the united states who has the credibility and legitimacy of being elected by the rule of law, by an honest, open election. that's what we're trying to get to. >> former senator bob graham knows plenty about contested elections. the florida democrat was in the thick of the bush/gore recount and joins us with his thoughts on today's fight for florida. we'll be back with more "morning joe." there's no oneoad t there.

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hillary clinton wants to raise taxes on small businesses up to 45%. what a difference. you know, what a difference this is. just thinking to myself right now, we should just cancel the election and just give it to trump, right? what are we having it for? her policies are so bad. >> donald trump speaking in ohio last night, and we have yet another new swing state poll out this morning. this one from virginia. hillary clinton leading trump by seven points in the christopher n newport university poll, but trump has closed the gap, up six from last week. trump and clinton will both be in battleground iowa today. joining us from white plains new york, nbc news correspondent kristen welker, covering the clinton campaign. how important does the clinton ex

campaign see iowa in the path to victory? >> bottom line, clinton campaign wants to win iowa. they don't necessarily need to win iowa, but if she does win, it would make it nearly impossible for donald trump to win the white house. i have been talking to the clinton campaign about iowa now for months. they say it is their toughest battleground state. the reason why, it has one of the country's largest populations of white working-class voters, noncollege educated voters. all of those voters who typically look to donald trump. and trump has been leading there in the polls, by the way, for months. if you look at the latest poll, the latest quinnipiac poll, which just came out yesterday, it is all tied up in iowa. each candidate getting 44%. the focus today for secretary clinton is going to be on early voting, urging people to get out to vote. we saw that strategy on display yesterday when she appeared for the very first time with first lady michelle obama. they are particularly concerned about voter turnout because you have donald trump calling the election rigged, and also they're concerned that democrats might get complacent.

take a listen to what the first lady said yesterday. >> when you hear folks talking about a global conspiracy and saying this election rigged, understand that they're trying to get you to stay home. they are trying to convince you that your vote doesn't matter. just for the record, in this country, the united states of america, the voters decide our elections. they have always decided. voters decide who wins and who loses. period, end of story. >> and all of this comes as we are learning that the clinton team is increasingly looking beyond donald trump. even though this race isn't over yet. the clinton transition team eyeing vice president joe biden for a possible spot as secretary of state. now, i just spoke with a top democratic source who told me the vice president wasn't exp t expected to be in consideration. in fact, he had started to look to his life after the white house. but he wouldn't rule it out if he were to get offered that top

job. those are some of the headlines we're eyeing from a very windy runway here in white plains. back to you. >> kristen welker, thank you very much. >> windy and loud. >> yes. >> so to underline that point, what hillary clinton would want, actually, donny, her supporters to see, is this abc poll that shows trump up six points in five days. >> yeah. >> and this virginia poll where trump is still behind but he's up six points. and i mean, the thing that scared me the most, and we're going to talk to like the master of politics in florida in one second here, but what scared me the most was complacency. i didn't mind when people thought i was going to lose because we all fought and we were hungry, but all this talk ten days out. i know liberal bloggers hate hearing the election is not over. i can tell you, hillary clinton doesn't want anybody to think that. >> people are worried, to the point i made earlier. you had the best two or three days the last few days of basically trump disappearing and

it was a referendum on hillary as far as wikileaks and as far as obamacare. and these polls move fast. so they are not doing victory laps, nor should they be. >> with us now, and by the way, clinton once again complacency, a headline in the times. it must be true. or the "washington post." with us now, former two-term governor and three-term u.s. senator of florida. he's such a legend, in my state, home state of florida. democrat bob graham. he's also the co-author of the book "america, the owner's manual you can fight city hall and win." he's also, i remember, it's been 21 years later. he's also the only senator -- it was amazing -- he walked over to the house. the little office, and sat down and talked to me. it was like, welcome to washington. >> felt bad for you. >> everybody feels bad for me, but he was doing it because he's nice. senator, what a great honor to

have you here. >> thank you very much for being invited back and for the chance to talk about this book, when we started working on it a couple years ago, we didn't anticipate the environment when it came out. >> yeah, we need it. >> a lot of people after this election, whatever the result, are going to ask the question, what in the hell has gone wrong with our country? and how can we begin to take it back? >> and what's the answer to that? >> i think it starts where it began 240 years ago, with the people. our problem is that we haven't been educating americans about their rights as citizens in a democracy since the 1970s. we've got two generations of americans who don't understand the basic principles of democracy. much less how they as a citizen can use their rights and responsibility to make a real difference. that's what this book gives them, a guideline to effective citizenship.

>> people feel so disconnected from washington. like it's us and them. and they probably need to get a sense of inspiration that they perhaps can get involved in some way. >> yes, and i would also say, i think politicians need to learn some of these lessons. it's amazing to me there were about 20 people ran for president in both parties. it seems as if the one who was the least political, donald trump, was the one who had listened to the people and had heard their dissatisfaction, their skepticism, cynicism, anger. and built his campaign around that. why weren't the other 19 aware of what was going on? >> what a lot of republicans are sk aing right now, willie. >> and this book, we should point out, this is not like a fluffy memoir. this is a civics book you can read in political science class. it's incredible. what would you tell an ordinary citizen sitting at home who says i have no say in the process. everything is decided in washington. what do you say to them? >> you're absolutely wrong. our government is built around

the principle that the people govern, the people make the decision. and the people can lead. this book is filled with case studies of where americans from all backgrounds came together and solved a serious problem. drunk driving in america wasn't solved by government. it was solved by a group of women in sacramento, california, some of whom had lost a child, to a drunk driver. deciding we're going to do more than just grieve. we're going to try to understand why and what can be done about it. today, drunk driving deaths in the united states are down about 50% what they were in the 1980s. >> wow. >> senator, this is a book about utilizing and celebrating democracy. we have one candidate who two thirds of his followers think there's a chance the election is rigged. as somebody who had a very hands-on experience in florida and who has run a state as a governor and has been a senator,

how do you respond to those people? because your book is kind of counterintuitive to what they're feeling right now. >> first, this idea that the presidential election is going to be rigged is from somebody who doesn't understand the process, we have an extremely decentralized electoral process in the united states. the 50 states have first-line responsibility. generally, they delegate it to a city or a county to actually administer the election. you would have to have tens of thousands of people collaborating in order to have a successful rigged election. so the people who make that claim, they missed that civic lesson. >> look at our home state. you would have to have 67 supervisors of elections all in on it. you know, it's ironic that we're such a computerized society. what brings me and a lot of people that look at this the most comfort is, we haven't computerized our voting process.

which sort of teaches us a lesson. it makes it impossible to rig because it's so spread out. >> and it's very distributed politically. in florida, as you know, joe, we have elected supervisors of election in 67 counties. some are republican, some are democrats. further that would make it difficult, i think impossible, to have a rigged election. but again, coming out of this election, whatever happens, we're going to have some real challenges in this country in reestablishing citizens' confidence in the government and particularly citizens' confidence in themselves and their ability to make a difference. >> and on the board of supervisors of elections is judge stafford's son, david stafford. >> very good to have you on. the book is "america, the owner's manual." senator bob graham, thank so much. up next, the great david

crosby. >> yes. >> joins us to talk about his new album and the 2016 election. fore taking his team to state fothe firstime... gilm: go get it, marcus. goett. ...coachilman us his cash rewards credit card from bank ofrica to en 1% cbaba everhe, ery time. ps ke the batting cages. ♪ owd cheers ] 2%ack at grocery stores and w at wlele cbs. and back on gas whh ed hive his playersomething extr the ca rewar cret card fromanof ame. more cash back for the things you buy most. when y're close t the people you love, doessoriasis ever get in the way of a touing moment ifou hmoderate to severe psoriasis, when y're close t the people you love, you can embre ever get in the chance the way of a touing moment of completely clr in with taz. taz is proven give you a chance at completely cle ski the way of a touing moment

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these are one of the cool moments. wake up. joining us now, two-time rock and roll hall of famer, founding

member of the birds and cross bay, stills, and nash, david crosby. his new album is called "lighthouse" and he's gearing up for a u.s. tour starting next month. right now, he's here with us. >> what a great honor to have you here. >> i'm honored to be here. >> stop it. >> i grew up with you guys. >> favorite band of all time. absolutely. >> the best. >> no. >> i said that about a band last week. >> no, i said that about polly shore's band. >> he did say that. we love you guys. we're all huge fans. i want to talk, though, about your new album because it's exciting. one of the things that drives me crazy about bands is when they go into the studio and they are going to be there for like a year. and they have to were eabout, you know, every time. you recorded this album 12 days. that's crazy. talk about that. >> well, i told mike leak, the guy who produced it, who is a brilliant guy.

i said i need two months. he laughed at me. and i said, i have never done one in less. and he said, we can do it in two weeks. i said, not a chance. and we went in the studio and did it in 12 days. >> whoa. >> but we did do one smart thing. we have the songs. we didn't try to write the record in the studio, which is the way you spend the four months. and also, i just can't afford that. wow. you know, too much money. but yeah, we did it in 12 days and then we mixed it in four more. i have never done a record that fast, and the credit goes to mike leak. he's the composer and leader of a band called snarky puppy, that is just terrific. and he's a naturally organized, planned guy. he's always got a path and a course. he did a great job. >> so where do you get your inspiration? after all these years, is it just the love of music?

just it's what you do? >> it's usually love. we usually write about love. i do. sometimes something crosses your path and you say, oh, gee, that's not right. then the sort of town crier gig kicks in and you say, america is shooting its own children and we have to write "ohio." >> right. >> you can't do a steady diet of that. our job is to make people boogie or take them on a little emotional voyage. >> speaking of boogying, you said you have something in common with the vice president as far as your approach, something we were talking about. >> don't get him in trouble. >> donald trump at a cross walk. >> you said what? >> i would floor it. >> you and joe biden. >> oh, yeah. joe. yeah, joe and i have been talking about that. it's -- the thing that's really funny is you see people all the time on your show coming on who

are -- they have been forced by circumstance to take up that side, right? and they're saying things that are so embarrassing. you can't believe they're saying them with a straight face. and you know it's going to come back to haunt them. >> yeah. >> people that say i don't like him, i don't like what he said, but i'm going to endorse him or i'm going to vote for him. i just -- you can't have it both ways. you're either in or out. >> you know, they don't like hillary. >> right. >> i have wanted for many years for there to be a woman president. i frankly think if you let the women or not let the women, but if you politely ask the women to run the country, they would do a better job. >> i agree. >> they're running the world. >> they should be. >> they're running britain, germany, they may -- >> and germany, hitting it out of the park. i think, you know, my first choice would have been somebody other than hillary. i have met her and talked to her, and she's always thinking something other than what she's saying, but she's an experienced

politician. and very smart. >> yeah. >> on the other hand, i look at him being president. i would rather eat a porcupine. >> let's go from that -- i have to ask you a question about your history. your music history. because you look back over your career. i have to ask you, what are you more proud of? what you did with the birds where you guys actually were part of dylan around '65, '66, of actually bringing rock and folk together, which it was mind-blowing at the time. people didn't get it at the time. i remember the story of john lennon going up to you guys and saying, don't worry. they don't get it. but i do. you were ahead of your time. was that a prouder moment or what you did with crosby, stills, nash, and young? >> both. >> can't compare.

>> the only thing i can't resist, i have to tell you this quick story. he came to the story where we were rehearsing ctambourine man. he walked in, we were in awe. >> in l.a.? >> yeah. he listened to us play it. you could hear the gears grinding. he went out directly afterwards and got himself an electric amp. he knew it worked, and -- >> wow. that's cool. >> we were in awe of him, but he was paying attention to what was going on with us. >> what's that like for dylan, though, to hear you guys play and then go out -- >> he liked it. >> and transform. >> it inspired him to do "highway 81 "and "blond on blond." >> we love the guy. he's a great poet. in 100 years they're going to look bake and say who was the best? it was either joni or bob. bob is a fantastic poet. joni sang better. so i would give it to joni.

which am i more proud of? i'm proud of all that work. the csn stuff, the csn live stuff, the birds. we did good work. i'm really happy about moving forward, though. i have to say, i have written now, i have this album that just dropped. >> lighthouse. >> i have another one on my computer already. i don't understand how that's happening. i'm older than dirt, and how can i possibly be doing -- have this flood of material come to me. >> isn't that great? >> truly great, because the songs are the key to the whole deal. good you have a good song, you have de. if you don't, all the production in the world isn't going to save it. >> also, when i listened to the album, your voice is incredible. how have you taken care of it? >> i haven't. i totally have not. >> that's what surprises me, because you know, we have heard stories about you through the years. >> absolutely. >> he's still alive. he and keith richards are still alive. not only are you alive, your voice, like god has blessed you

with an incredible -- >> thank you. >> exactly. >> it's working. and all i can tell you is i'm grateful. i can't assign it to any reason. it's just there. so i figure if they give you the songs and give you the tools, you should be grateful. work hard. >> the new album is "lighthouse." david crosby, thank you so much. what a pleasure to have you on the show on this friday. more on all the today's political news straight ahead with stephanie ruhle. stay with msnbc all day long. st] juscan't wait to get on the road again [ front assist sounds ] [ music sts ] [ gi laugh] ♪ on the again ♪ like a bandpsie weo do theighway ♪ [ beetle horn honks ] no matter whic paat you choos yoget more standard features, for lesshan yoexpected. huy and lease

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good morning. happy friday. i'm stephanie ruhle. we have breaking news overnight. off the runway. governor mike pence's plane in a hard landing. >> oh, my god. >> it's a 737 that ran off the runway. >> skidding. that's right, skidding off the tarmac. tearing up the ground. mike pence speaking out to nbc this morning. >> we felt i think if fish tailing a little bit, and then it slid to the right. it was about ten seconds of uncertainty. >> also breaking. joe won't go. nbc confirming hillary clinton is considering keeping joe biden on as secretary of state while donald trump on offense, pounding clinton over her foundation. >> mr. band called the arrangement