that does it for this hour. mtp daily starts now. good evening. i'm chuck todd in washington. welcome to a big "mtp daily" tonight, gridlock alert. why election day might be the beginning and not the end. it makes the likelihood of gridlock getting worse. plus, actions speak louder than poll numbers. it could signal a surprising shift in the battle ground map.

mtp daily starts right now. one more week. the election is shifting the battle ground and we have a lot to dive into. we have a brand-new map that i will unveil. there is an even bigger story. american democracy has been badly damaged by this election. the results next tuesday will make things worse. it's a scary proposition, but let's be blunt. there is little that can stop the slow trust of our defolk mock reas. this is keeping leaders up at night left and right. here's why. james comey's decision to publicly revive his investigation of clinton's e-mails has thrown gasoline on a rigged election talk we thought

was only burping in one party. they may not recognize the full legitimacy. here's one plausible scenario. say clinton wins the presidency and the republicans hold the senate. they will say they rigged the presidency for clinton. democrats are likely to argue that comey rigged the senate for republicans by dampening enthusiasm for down ballot democrats with this announcement. this is what november 9th could look like. defoo fines and anger from all sides. ask yourself, how can american democracy function if large chunks of the electorate question legitimacy even if the out come is different? the result will probably be the same. they will not tolerate support for any parts and the same can be said for the democratic base if trump wins. the national nightmare does not end there. the third branch of government

cannot function in this mess either. obstructions impaired the support and it is looking like republicans will feel like they have no choice but to block any clinton nominee, possibly for years if she wins. here's what republican senator richard burr told republican volunteers in the audio obtained by cnn. >> hillary clinton obtains the presidency and i will do everything i can do that four years from now we have an opening on the supreme court. >> this is richard burr. not somebody associated with sort of the fire and brim stone of the right. we heard this type of things like ted cruz. the next two years could see a permanent war being waged. we could have an incomplete supreme court and untrufed fbi

and a branch mired in investigation and election result called illegitimate and four rings of the electorate and democrats and tea parties and establishment republicans futing on what to do about it and who to blame and how to rebuild it. let's folks focus on the e-mail support joined by a clinton supporter here in washington who was counsel to house democrats in bill clinton's impeachment proceedings. welcome. >> good to see you again. >> is there any discomfort you had with a clinton messaging that is going hard after director comey. they may feel legitimate about it. there is a consequence in the same way republicans were furious after july. we know in this case if you are getting beaten up by both sides, it doesn't mean you are doing your job.

>> that's right. it's self-inflikted. the first way was sort of backwards. it's not ready, aim, fire. it's fire, aim, ready. first i will talk to you and update you and then do an investigation and tell you if there was anything there. it brings on criticism and it never happened. there is lots of people that pointed out the director violated decades of policy in two ways. the first way is to tell you about an ongoing investigation. >> that's not a law. he did not break any laws. >>y i totally understand. >> it's a policy recommendation. >> it's not a law, but there is two doj policies. you don't talk about investigations and you don't take action in the shadow of an election that can influence it. the irony is that he violated two policies of his department investigating secretary clinton over e-mail servers which doesn't violate the policies of

the department of state. isn't that weird? >> there is plenty of people on that front. let me ask you this, if you are him and this was coming out that there were more e-mails to investigate and the public didn't know about this, capitol hill republicans would think this information was with held unfairly. what do you say to that? >> two wrongs don't make a right. he should not have announced in july his personal opinion and having committed that wrong, he is in a very important job that he volunteered to have. it's a tough job. it's a job where you take criticism and in law enforcement accident it's such a powerful tool that officials especially need to know that like good children, they should be silent at the table. >> it is unnerving to watch and we see it recently. we had investigations impact elections that eventually lead

to no conviction. that influenced an election. you could argue terry mcauliffe is governor because of the investigation into the previous governor of virginia which had an impact on how republicans felt. do we have to have laws in place that changes this because the idea is you are guilty until proven innocent? >> i don't know if you need a law, but you need a couple of things. you need americans to remember that this means nothing more than opening up a file on his desk. it doesn't lead anywhere. >> that's an erosion of the presumption of innocence. let's say we are reality and that's what people think.

law enforcement officials do pretzels and not to do something that can influence an election. two things have gotten lost. one is there is no law enforcement purpose for what the director did. it doesn't advance the ball at all. he is looking at more e-mails. there could be 10,000 more e-mails on huma abedin's computer and it wouldn't change what was announced in july. the two people are allowed to talk to each other about classified information and it doesn't violate the law. >> they both have security claims. the only thing is there is prove that the material was removed. >> yes. that's the other thing. the only other time any case has been made when there was a physical removal of something marked classified like in the

sandy berger case or other cases. i'm not saying and believe i read, secretary clinton could be a harsher critic. if they could get their hands on it & huma abedin is not even sure what e-mails they are referring to. >> not sight unseen. believe me, i don't think that the clinton campaign is actually interested in anything being with held, but you kapt say i'm going to jump out from the way and we don't want to see this.

>> for more on the bigger picture and the idea that may be damage has been done by the democracy. the cofounder of the policy center, majority leader under bill clinton and a "new york times" chief washington correspondent and the unofficial mayor of capitol hill. splachb what you think is about to happen on november 9th. >> if they think this election will clear the air and there will be a washington reset and dysfunction will go away, they will be disappointed. what senator burr said and senator cruz said in texas that they are going to block any

stream court nominee that is an extraordinary thing to say. some republicans said they would never stand for that and we would move ahead. if the republicans win the senate, they would be able to block this indefinitely. if the democrats win, if there is a blockade, they will move to do the nuclear option. >> okay. that's where i want to move to senator mitchell. i want to clear that up. senator mitchell, going the nuclear option which means no opportunity for a filibuster at all for the other side on a supreme court justice. republicans say hey, harry reid

started this when he invoked the lower option for lower courts, but explain the damage that could do to the institution. >> it would be severe damage. i refrain from any such actions when i was senate majority leader, but the circumstances were different. the numbers of filibusters and the willingness to use obstructionist taxes have increased exponentially. you can argue day and night as to who started it, but the real question is how do you finish it? i believe that there are steps that whoever is elected president can and should take immediately to try to diffuse the hostility and the partisanship and try to get the government and the legislative branches on the right track towards bipartisan action. >> i was going to say, you were a special envoy to try to solve the israeli and palestinian ongoing crisis. i think this might be harder.

>> that's nothing compared to this. >> senator mitchell, let me go on there. if you are president-elect hillary clinton and dealing with mitch mcconnell not just in the lame duck, but you are dealing with him, what can she do to diffuse things and what pressure do you think -- what obligation does mitch mcconnell have? the basis of both parties, they don't want to diffuse things. >> right. at first before taking office, i would announce the highest possible ethical standards to govern administration's and make sure that everyone in his or her don't trust either. >> what is the new ethical standard that we have not had before that could start to rebuild trust?

>> president obama has had the highest ethical standards in history and i think even they can be improved perhaps particularly in the area of the receive vofling door between people entering and leaving government and engaging in other activities. many areas in which this can be improved. everything human beings can be can be improved. >> secondly one or two numbers of the opposition party to the cabinet. i think they serve a beautiful purpose both symbolistally and realistically. >> an a level post or b level post? we have never seen it on an a level. >> one of each. not just minor cabinet positions and a meaningful level. my colleague is a republican and served as secretary of defense under clint. he did an outstanding job. it's possible that it can be done in the future. third, i would seek out the opposition in developing my

budget and administration's initial proposals to find areas where there can be common ground. there are many. an infrastructure program and they say they wanted it. let's try to do it. returning and repatriating money from overseas and using that and both parties say they want to do it. let's give them the chance to do it. thirdly, do something in terms of a proposal about this horrific campaign spending problem that we have in our country. one of the reasons both mr. trump and senator sanders did well in the nomination process is they focused on the completeness trust that americans have with excessive money in politics and the declining transparency in that area. >> go ahead with that. >> i think that a real effort is like your kids. they know when you are serious and the public will know whether the incoming president is

serious about seeking bipartisan assistance. >> let's do a little reality check. no offense, but the center -- >> senator mitchell's optimism. >> the center has been hollowed out of the senate. i know this and i know this. they don't act like centrists because of the way the bases work. one of the proposals put out there, the progressive wing to allow the common ground. what's the reality here? >> they would be upset if there is centrist republicans appointed to the cabinet. i do think that's a nice overture. in 2013 when they did change the rules on the judges, there were democrat who is wanted to go ahead and eliminate the filibuster. some of the older democrats didn't want to do that and worried about whether they would be able to block a bad republican nominee.

those folks are gone and a lot of this sense of a bipartisanship is fading. i think senator clinton has a reputation for being being able to work with republicans and could try to reach across the aisle, but the republicans are seeing what their constituents want and that is give no ground to the democrats. i think it will be tough. the house republicans are talking more about investigating secretary clinton rather than sitting down and talking to her. i think it's going to be unfortunately more of the same. >> on that upbeat note, i have to go and pay bills. >> the public takes its queue from the political leaders. minds can be changed. until now, until this last year for 50 years, republicans have favored trade agreements and encouraged more trade agreements. one candidate capitalized on sentiment and changed the

position of the republican party. why could not a president change minds by taking the bully pulpit and uses it for positive purposes as opposed to negative purposes. >> there you go. you are a statesman for a reason. good to see and thanks for coming on. always a pleasure. coming up, the battle ground map might be getting a shake-up. what could be clinton's new roadblock to 270 and does trump have a couple of realistic paths? i will show you. we'll be right back. long. did you read every word? no, only lawyers do that. so when you got rear-ended and needed a tow, your insurance company told you to look at page five on your policy. did it say "great news. you're covered!" on page five? no. it said, "blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah..." the liberty mutual app with coverage compass™ makes it easy to know what you're covered for

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because she is a butterfly, who fights fires. because she is my daughter, and the surgeon general says that raising tobacco taxes... is a proven way to make sure she never smokes. that's why i'm voting yes on 56. >> we haves showing how many people are voting early. as of today, over 26 million votes have been cast already. nearly twice as many as the last

presidential election. at this point 13.5 million had been cast early. they were tracking more votes cast early compare paired with a week out and it should be noted there are states that have allowed more early voting including colorado by mail. the biggest growth is happening in these critical states. florida, michigan, arizona, and colorado. specifically in michigan, the early vote turn out is favoring democrats. they are outpacing republicans by three points in colorado and michigan and by 13 points in virginia. the numbers may come as a relief to the clinton campaign, but the path looks like it could be narrowing. there are more paths that could be narrowing. that credit scorecard. give it. sure! it's free for everyone. oh! well that's nice! and checking your score won't hurt your credit. oh! i'm so proud of you.

well thank you. free at at discover.com/creditscorecard, even if you're not a customer. hillary clinton: far too many families today don't earn what they need and don't have the opportunities they deserve. i believe families deserve quality education for their kids, childcare they can trust and afford, equal pay for women, and jobs they can really live on. people ask me what will be different if i'm president? well kids and families have been the passion of my life and they will be the heart of my presidency. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message.

we were talking about a potential wave that could flip control of the senate and putting the house in play. is it possible the path is narrowing? let's look at the map before comey. this is whether it stood. the stuff in gray is where the toss ups were. in main and nebraska. we had her well over 270 with a pad. trump at 157. well, let's go ahead and look at a new battle ground map. thanks to early voting, nevada appears to be getting out of reach for trump. the early vote is going in sump a way that is good news there for clinton. today she is making new ad buys in colorado and polling 179s the idea that colorado has gotten close. the senate race has gotten close. she has gone up in mitch dpan

and not a lot to say the race is below five points as well as virginia. then you start i saing enthusiasm is up and arizona is more likely to go back to the norm there. then you are like okay, she is sitting at 274 and we know that new hampshire, the maine situation there, we will get that back here a little bit. get it out. goodbye, maine. let's get that back. north carolina has gone back in the poss up and she is under her number. what happens? right now let's sum north and north carolina and give him ohio. i am not ready to move pennsylvania. it's still preety lean blue. we have utah and that mcmullen thing is something he has to

deal with. give him iowa. we are sitting at trump at 258 and clinton at 255. you see what's going on based on what we think we know right now. look at that. it would suddenly put wisconsin and these little votes here into play potentially. especially if new hampshire goes red you throw maine. it feels like it's more likely to go red. he is sitting there and everything could come down to wisconsin. if that's the deal, democrats feel good because they think they have a ground game there and the republicans don't. don't forget the chairman is from where? wisconsin. let's talk to him. the convibtor for our friends

and will ork r obama days of both 08 and 12. do you buy it? >> i think we have to take it seriously that things will be close. we are not a country where we have a five or-point race. to say that north carolina and florida go republican is really tough. we got florida in the last two elections and the demographics that are making democrats more competitive, it grounds central to florida with the hispanic vote. a lot of my friends argue that when you look at the early vote in floater, they like their chances. >> mow matter how i do this map, trump has to breakthrough the

big blue wall of the midwest. give them the southern swing states off the bort. he has to breakthrough the wall. pennsylvania looks hard and wisconsin is hard, but maybe of the three the easiest? >> it's much more in line with his current vote share and you can make the argument that at the end of the day, the fundamentals work the best for trump. they have come the closest for winning and previous campaigns. >> no republican won it since 1988. >> president bush. >> they marginalize. >> even in 2000 it was not far apart. >> i think there is a real opportunity for him to make those competitive and i don't know if he wins them at the end of the day. >> if you look, ohio looks a lot like what old america writes

than it does in the future. i would argue that ohio was. he needs that. ohio is the issue. look at this map. gi back to this. what's amazing is he can win florida and still be short. it comes back to the big blue wall of the industrial midwest. >> trump will get a lot of blame if he loses. let's subin ted cruz. where on there do you see a state in that group? i would argue that given where trump has gone, he is running better than ted cruz would run. i think that the republicans say you have to remember that the republican ceiling is 290s? 300 would be everything going right. that's just the reality of the

map. >> look at john kerry's number. it was 244. i think. >> romney gets 206 and he wins north carolina and he wins the states and barely gets to 200. >> silence they can compete more strongly. >> i thought new mexico is a state that is 45% plus hispanic and both trump and pence spending time there, they believe they can get that. >> about gary jnchs lowers the win number and it made i think the colorado numbers are an inflated number.

she may win it by bigger than what we think. >> it is the gary johnson factor that has them enticed they have to find more states. >> i think you are right. wisconsin with with scott walker and ron johnson is the center from there. the issue there and this has been true since the recall. it is like charlie brown and lucy and the football. you can get to 47, but the problem is at a federal level. can you get to 48, 49. >> you have to see jill stein overperforming. maybe a half point, but it could make a difference. >> that's a big issue for the junger voters who are still protest voting. in the end, do you think that

they get 10 or 12%? if they do, we would assume that. the clinton campaign is very nervous about african-american turn out. i talked to my good friend at the campaign and when you look at early vote in florida, it was a crazy number. if you said they would have more early votes than we had in 2012, i would laugh at you. they would argue that they have more black votes in florida than we did in the obama campaign. north carolina is sort of a mixed bag and they got in the way of blocking it. it began to work although they had a big picture.

there is disputes about how to read them. i have equal pollsters and florida looks this way or this way. there is simple confusion. >> hb 2 is helping. >> that's true, but by how much? both red and blue states are voting on green. could marijuana use be legal in a state year you? student. e holidays. before his mom earned 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback.

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in need to low-cost internet at home. welcome to a brighter future. comcast. welcome back. today's race of the day is not just one race. it's nine. marijuana is on the ballot in states. california, nevada, arizona, massachusetts and maine will decide whether to legalize

recreational use. montana and florida will vote 09 idea of medicinal marijuana. they had legal medical marijuana on the books and recreational use is allowed in five places. if all of the ballot measures pass and considering where marijuana shifted, 28 states and d.c. will have a legalized ability to use marijuana. that mean fist all nine states vote to legalize cannibis, 61.5% of the american population or roughly 200 million people will live in states where you can legally access marijuana either recreationally or with a prescription. what does it mean for the federal government. a retired agent for the drug enforcement administration and he joins me now.

i want to begin with -- how should and i know you are not in favor of seeing this massive move towards legalization, but what does the federal government need to do to respond to the fact that we will have a majority of the country living in jurisdictions where a drug that the federal government said is schedule one illegal, not just any illegal level. how do these two things fit each other. >> thanks for having me on. first of all you have to realize that despite what every state does concerning marijuana possession and use for recreation or otherwise, it's against federal law. and the reason mainly is that years ago the federal u.s. government signed into treaty

agreements through the united nations to make marijuana universally illegal. to legalize it nationally would be a violation of the treaty agreement unless they are willing to renegotiate it. you bring up a good point because depending on who gets elected and somebody who is going to enforce the law for a change, all bets are off and it will have all kinds of he percussions and to the states themselves. >> both candidates have said they would let the states make this decision. they would continue the o damma administration policy on this. that puts in a legal limbo about this and how do financial

institutions interact with scores that sell marijuana? >> that's right. you will find and i don't see why you want to add to the misery and the social problems that exist. washington state had a doubling in traffic-related fatalities of drivers under the influence of marijuana. colorado experienced organized crime groups from not only other states, but entering groups as well. in any tax revenue they generate as a result of legalizing marijuana is all going to be consumed in taking care of the treatment programs and the social problems that will result as -- >> i understand and i want to get away from the normal argument because what you said about marijuana, plenty of people will make the same case about alcohol, but society made

a decision on alcohol and society may be making a decision on marijuana. in that sense, does the government have to change laws to allow the states to operate? >> significantly, yes. so long as it's a federal offense offense and you have an attorney general under the obama administration about not enforcing the federal marijuana laws, if that goes away, then they are all again going to be subject to being indicted and arrested for the marijuana trade. >> do you think marijuana should be rescheduled regardless of the legalization issue. do you think it should be rescheduled or on par with heroin? >> the scheduling is determined

by the medicinal use of it. or is that drug subject to abuse? that's why it's a schedule one drug and it should stay there. there is no evidence to prove that marijuana has done anything in the medical arena. it is obviously subject to abuse. iness it is where it needs to be. >> the former da agent. appreciate you coming on and helping us clarifying the funky relationship between the federal government and what's going on in so many states. appreciate it. >> polls you haven't prd about and what might be donald trump's best speech of the campaign. stay tuned. anything else to talk about. but then i realized there was. so, i finally broke the silence with my doctor about what i was experiencing. he said humira is for people like me who have tried other medications

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♪ and if you want to be me, be me ♪ ♪ and if you want to be you, be you ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to do ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ . >> welcome back. as you probably assume, i'm obsessed with polls. significant polls and polls with sound methodology. far fewer than ever before. it seems i'm not the only one obsessed with polls. no matter how unspecific they may be, 7-11 is asking people to vote by choosing their coffee cup. 31% went democrat and 29% republican and then the write in option. years ago president obama outcupped mitt romney which was a bigger margin than the four-point win.

the nationwide student scholastic vote from kindergarten through 12th great. clinton took this one and the kids had only been wrong twice. they went for thomas dewey over truman. and thulg r then they picked nixon over kennedy and that was a nail biter. tinder got into the mix. 57% matched or hooked up with clinton on the issues. 43% hooked up with trump. we have the spirit of halloween. harris poll on which candidate costumes people preferred, donald trump took this one going away. why not? who wants to wear that. that mask is easy. good news except that many people said they plan to dress up as trump to mock him. actual decent polls after this.

i will ask congress to

convene a special session, so we can repeal and replace. and it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody in this country. because obamacare has to be replaced. and we will do it and we will do it very, very quickly. it is a catastrophe. >> time for "the lid." panel is back. that was donald trump in what was a semi-policy speech, although mike pence gave most of the details there. cillizza, faken and baker are back. ty thought it was smart strategy, at a moment when people might be paying attention to what they're doing, he went policy. it was smart. but by having pence do the work, is that -- was that a -- what was that about? was that designed to appeal to republicans who don't like trump, to say, hey, we've got a real republican here? >> well, chris nicholas, who we both know in pennsylvania, made a point to me on twitter that i hadn't thought of or hadn't noticed. he said, trump is often better -- and i thought he was

quite good together, is often better when mike pence is around. that pence is like around, literally. >> pence's personal morality -- >> pence is a calming presence. because that event, from beginning to end. and i watched it from john barrasso from virginia speaking until trump finished it, was one of the better produced trump events. it was a smart location in pennsylvania, a smart day, the day that the 2017 open enrollment begins. he gave a speech that, no, was not larded with policy, but was enough and talked about, what, trade. talked about, i'm different. i'm an outsider. and was blessedly, relatively short. he didn't sort of free lance all over the place. >> no free lansing. >> it was interesting. i thought he was quite good. >> a couple points here. one, when donald trump talks about policy, donald trump does better in the polls. the other thing is, don't underestimate the impact of all of these obamacare announcements and these premium hike announcements have had on this polling. it's not just the e-mail scandal. people are still livid about

this. and it shows up in the polling, it's been showing up in the polling long before these premium hikes were announced. >> well, i don't -- i don't know if people are -- i don't know if i would use the word "livid." >> they're livid when their hikes go up. >> everyone wants to be a pollster now because it's glamorous and we're sexy. >> you want to win a sexiest pollster contest? you, fred yank, bill mcinturff. >> that's hot! >> we don't want that contest. no offense. >> but, look, i think it's smart for them on the obamacare stuff, because it does sort of gin up their base. i don't know how many middle of the road voters you're winning still on obamacare, because it's not a new narrative. and look, it's interesting that the dnc is actually putting out advertising right now that literally says, 20 some million more americans insured because of obamacare. you did that with your vote. both sides, you can get out of obamacare what you want. >> it's a base play for both.

>> it certainly is a base play, but it's a play for independents and swing voters, too. many of whom are folks that are living on the bubble of this economy, and are exposed to either obamacare not working, because there's only one insurer in the state, or very expensive premiums, premiums that are much higher than they were two or three years ago. >> it guess to the whole -- this is where i always thought it was a disaster for -- premiums always go up. now it's always the government -- now the government owns premiums -- >> but they haven't been going up that high. >> but the cost curve has actually been sort of the cost of health care overall has been -- >> yeah, that bend is starting -- >> we need more young people in it. >> the bend stops. >> we do need more young people nit. however, look, we had this conversation in 2012, with those independent voters, and i think obama was very successful in that. i don't think this is -- >> he doesn't know how -- you can argue she doesn't know how to defend it as well as obama does. >> look at the gains he has made. the gains he has made are among

republicans. it goes back to the point cornell made at the start. trump and clinton are such big personalities, we forget about ate. we are still a very divided country. if he unites republicans, he's at 46.5, 47%, right? >> and that brings us down, i feel like, 2012 is starting to look awfully familiar. all right, anyway. fun panel. battleground map. sexy pollsters. good stuff! all right, we've got the pollster calendar coming up. after the break, some political football. stay tuned.

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well, if you're like me, you've heard a lot about the so-called redskins rule recently, but in case you missed it, it's dead. according to the old redskins rule, if washington's nfl team wins its final home game before the election, the party in power holds the white house. that held true in every presidential election from 1940 to 2000. but it did not work in two of the last three races. the redskins last in '04 and 2012, but they held the white hoe. they lost to the green bay packers in 2004. that's a nice nugget there. this year would have been tricky to try to apply the redskins rule. they had a bye this week. washington beat the philadelphia eagles in their last d.c. area game before tuesday's election. i would like to say the redskins are like the rest of america, they want off on election week, so they did the tie and the bye. but we now can turn to another

football-related election handicapping method. it's alabama versus lsu. since 1964, the republican candidate won the white house every time that lsu won and the democratic came out on top every year the crimson tide has rolled. the two candidates face off saturday night in baton rouge. lsu is undefeated under ed ojeron. i'll count that as last-minute research before i wake up to do "meet the press" on sunday night. you never want to play in baton rouge in a night game. that's all for tonight. "with all due respect" starts right now. >> i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. and with all due respect to 7-eleven and cumberland pharmacy, apparently, donald trump is a wawa man. we are just one very endless week a