i'm alex witt. "morning joe" starts right now. this is a message for any democratic voter who have already cast their ballots for hillary clinton. and hillary clinton and who are having a bad case of buyer's remorse. in other words, you want to change your vote. wisconsin is one of several states where you can change your early ballot if you think you've made a mistake. a lot of stuff has come out since you voted. so if you live here or in michigan or pennsylvania or minnesota, those four places, you can change your vote to donald trump. we'll make america great again, okay. >> good morning. >> that's a relief, willie, right for a lot of people? >> he's not wrong. you can actually change it. >> it's wednesday, november 2nd. welcome to "morning joe." we're getting there. we are getting there. >> a week.

>> you're ready for hillary. you're ready. veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle is here. something very, i feel -- i feel discriminating just happened to me in the hall an hour ago. chair of the department of african-american studies at princeton university and columnist for "time" magazine eddie is there it he walks right by me kind of moving over to the other side. i had no makeup on. >> neither did eddie. >> eddie looked the same. that's the problem. he had no idea who i was. this happened to me when i walked into cbs when i anchored the weekend news, they didn't let me in. sorry. that's the real me. look at my driver's license.

>> and mark halperin, we've got another hotel -- let us hope the vacuum cleaning has already taken place this morning. >> i like when he does his live shot from the breakfast nook at the holiday inn express. >> room service next. love the backdrop. we have to talk about it real quickly. we're going to seven. this is a fall classic, right? the only sad thing about is there's not a game eight, nine, ten and 11 to take us through the weekend. chicago cubs last night. bats came alive in chicago. 9-3 was the final. glares mishap there in center field. a couple home runs. the kids on the cubs clearly played a lot looser in cleveland than they did at home in chicago. >> it had to be suffocating expectations of over a century. you talk about one for the ages.

rand y johnson one three games n the world series. to start it out and go. we have a chance to see that again tonight. it's going to be the best bats against the best pitcher. can't get any better than this. >> you can't ask for more in sports. we had the nba finals in june. two best players in the world. can't get better than that in basketball. can't get better than this in baseball. two teams who deserve it. the country if you don't live in one of those losing cities will be happy for whomever wins and two great pitchers on the mound. >> cleveland fans that are just about to lose it. they said going seven with cavaliers was one thing. going seven again with the indians. it is painful. >> they got their guy pitching. >> on three days rest. >> for the second time in this series.

unbelievable. >> a lot to get to. there is some political news this morning with six days left and a major shake-up in the rest sit settling in. it's time to look at the polls. a significant shift toward trump over the past week. while the reuters poll gives clinton a six-point lead in a poll taken after new developments in the clinton e-mail investigation, clinton at 43%. trump, 37%. gary johnson 6%. in missouri, trump has seen a nine-point swing in his direction since mid october where he's now leading by 14 points. 52% to clinton's 38%. in north carolina, an elon university poll taken before fbi director comey's letter shows the race effectively tied. clinton at 42% and trump one point behind at 41%. three points for johnson. but in an automated poll taken for wral by surveyusa in the

aftermath of the fbi investigation, trump rockets to a seven-point lead. 51 to 44. this one could be an outlier. >> i think it is. a state like north carolina, this one is going to be close, i think, all of the way to the end. "the new york times" and our own jeremy peters had a story out yesterday that's causing a lot of concern for the clinton camp specifically in north carolina, in florida, in ohio. >> so that's the new data that shows early and absentee voting is significantly higher than at this time in the 2012 election. according to data provided by target smart, the number has doubled to 26.2 million from 13.5 million in 2012. this as democrats are worried about a drop in early voting among african-americans. "the new york times" reports

that in north carolina black turnout is down 16% while white turnout is up 15%. and in florida, the share of the african-american electorate that has gone to the poll in person so far has decreased to 15% from 25% four years ago. >> eddie, similar concerns for democrats on the clinton team in ohio and as jeremy peters says they are concerned this is a much bigger problem. a problem i've been hearing about antidotally over the last four or five days. didn't say anything because you hear so much garbage from all sides. highest ever for democrats. highest ever for republicans. what we're talking about turnout being significantly reduced for black voters is something that you've been warning about for some time. the intensity level of support for hillary clinton. you've been worried about it and according to "the new york times" this morning, that's now

something that they're really worried about. >> there are three things that we have to be mindful of here. one is something that benchmarks of 2008 and 2012 might be a bit much. to think that -- >> historically high. you had obama on the ticket. to use that as a benchmark is unrealistic. secondly, i think people have underestimated the level of cynicism among black voters about what's possible in american politics between 2012 and now. >> you said you wouldn't vote for hillary clinton. you still are not voting for hillary clinton. just refuse to. >> i'm in a blue state though. i say -- if i was in pennsylvania or north carolina i would hold my nose and everything else and vote for hillary. i would. then i think there's a third issue that we need to be mindful of. this morning a judge is hearing naacp suit around voter suppression in north carolina. you have three counties, for

example, buford, moore and cumberland, where voters have been purged from the rolls. voter registration canceled and reverend barber ii as leader of naacp in north carolina has brought suit. >> are republicans rigging the election in north carolina? >> what's been called voter fraud may be voter suppression. he's making the -- naacp is making the case that these folks have been illegally purged from the voter rolls and you have neo-nazi folks saying they'll show up in all 50 states at the polls to engage in voter intimidation. all of this stuff happening at the same time. >> at least in north carolina, some people believe that the election is being rigged. some democrats believe the election is being rigged. willie, jeremy peters talks about some of that and also talks about in florida where voting has expanded, you still have the same situation going on

where black voters just aren't going out at the level that clinton campaign thought they were going. >> eddie's first point was very important. they weren't going to come out and vote for hillary clinton the way they did for historic candidate in barack obama. that's the first thing. if you want to know how concerned hillary clinton is about this problem, look at where she's going. on friday, four days, five days before the election, she'll be in detroit. in detroit, michigan. a state which she felt like she had in hand for a while and a city she's had in hand and looks like a lot of people she's playing defense as 2016 election hits the final days chasing donald trump into blue states. losing ground in the polls, the democratic nominee is visiting michigan on friday. it last voted for a republican 28 years ago. clinton campaign announced six-figure ad buys in -- >> let's stop right there. those states stunning that just

last week everybody was mocking and ridiculing trump. he was going to lose texas. he was going to lose georgia. one week later because as we've said around here and everybody said, a week is a lifetime in politics. put those states up again. hillary clinton is having to go back in with ad buys in michigan, in colorado, in new mexico and wisconsin and most surprising to me, where the race is now a six point race according to latest poll we have, virginia. >> they are tracking polls that are showing same thing that tracking polls we've used here. the race is tightening. they don't want to have what happened to them what happened to john kerry in 2004 when his campaign end and they about $20 million left in the bank. spend it. get it out there. reinforce what strengths you have in those states. because it is shrinking.

part of this deal, eddie referred to it, you know, shrinking base of black voters who will come out in support of hillary clinton, there's an increasing awareness among voters as we approach tuesday, i don't like either candidate. i don't like -- >> you have to do the math and choose one because one of them is going to be president. >> i would assume spending in those states is targeted to groups. please. i'm begging you. come out and vote. >> one of the top super pacs behind clinton is ramping up ad spending in four states returning to colorado and for the first time wisconsin. this as the trump campaign puts its faith in their candidate's ability to flip traditionally blue states. yesterday trump's deputy campaign manager laid out target dates for electoral college victory. including north carolina which trended toward clinton and picking up iowa, florida, ohio, which would give him 259 of the

270 needed to win. the rest rely on flipping states like michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire, colorado, new mexico, nevada or maine's second district. and trump's campaign announced $25 million ad blitz including michigan and new mexico along with virginia and colorado. just last week, democrats vice presidential nominee tim kaine said living florida would be check mate but last night he was in a state that went republican in 2004. >> we have one week until the most important election in my lifetime and wisconsin is absolutely key. we got to have you wisconsini wisconsinites. we have to have you. will you support hillary clinton? and make sure we win wisconsin? >> mark halperin, you're in wisconsin because wisconsin is on the minds of both campaigns. what a difference a week makes. a week ago you were accused of being a neo-nazi for simply

saying this race could still be competitive. you were right. here we are a week later. i cannot believe the hatred spewed at you for saying the race wasn't over last week by fools in the media who decided to go cheerleaders instead of being reporters. it's been that way for too long. here you are right again and right in the middle of it in wisconsin. who would have believed that last week? what's going on? >> an election. >> hillary clinton still has the advantages she's had from the beginning. democrats have an electoral college advantage. they have a demographic advantage. she's got more resources. she's got -- >> it's all over. it's not even competitive. that's what we heard. it's not competitive. if you say it's competitive, you're a neo-nazi. >> here's what's changed. right now look at what donald trump has. he gave two very strong speeches yesterday. he's closing on the message that a lot of supporters including

paul ryan had wished he had run on forever. change. changing washington. not letting clintons back in the white house. the candidate is performing pretty well. at least he did yesterday. second is he's putting her on defense in these states. it's not just that people said the race was over. they said forget pennsylvania. forget wisconsin. forget michigan. forget colorado. the democrats, you know, the ad spending is one thing because they've got a lot of money. when bill clinton is going to colorado, when hillary clinton is going to michigan, when chelsea clinton and tim kaine are coming to wisconsin, you know they're feeling nervous. they've been tight lipped about their internals but no doubt that right now donald trump has some plausible paths. she's still the heavy favorite to win this race. the biggest thing that's happened is the information flow since the obamacare announcement last week, almost every day donald trump has been able to win the news cycle simply by reading the newspaper aloud. she has not been able to break

through new stories from wikileaks, obamacare and the fbi. they are running ads saying hillary clinton is old and donald trump is change. that's the message if he had a path to victory he needed to one on and he is now. >> to tell you how quickly things change in baseball and politics and mark knows things change quickly in politics, that's why he didn't jump off a cliff saying the race was over. nate silver had a tweet. do we have that tweet? nate silver says at this point the election is a long way from being in the bag for clinton. trump has the same chance of winning as cubs have a chance of winning the world series. that was two nights ago.

>> there's one other point in hillary clinton's favor, which you still see in some polling even as it narrowed which they counted on from the beginning. a ceiling on donald trump support. if his support tops out at 42%, 43%, it's not enough to win. that's still the big question. >> wouldn't that be the ultimate irony? if the last shot the media had at donald trump was talking about his "ceiling" that willie and mika and i were mocking reporters nine months for talking constantly about donald trump's ceiling and being proven wrong every time. as tom brokaw says, we don't know until people go out and vote. a lot of people got ahead of themselves last week. i got to tell you, i look at the map. i still can only get donald trump to 265. i still -- it's going to require him to win a colorado or a wisconsin to get beyond 265.

right now, it looks like -- i think "the washington post" said yesterday if you look at real clear politics averages, he's in the 230s right now. go ahead and add nevada. go ahead and add arizona. go ahead and add north carolina. you're still up at 259. add one or two others and you're at 265. the last five are really going to require -- that requires him winning north carolina, which i think regardless of the polls i'm seeing is a really steep climb. let's say he wins north carolina, he still has to win a wisconsin or a colorado. that really would be quite a surprise. >> if you go online and play with the map, you have to be very generous to donald trump to get him to 270. he has to win states that he's not likely to win. all of those states we put up there, michigan, wisconsin, colorado, he's got to win those tossups. likelihood of her in less than a week slipping that far in states

she's led all along is small. impossible, no? but it's still a very small chance he could flip all of those states in less than a week. >> i tell you what, i'm all about momentum. and right now -- >> to your point the electoral college map, north carolina, wisconsin, colorado -- >> let me put it this way. if i'm choosing between candidate a and candidate b, structurally i rather be candidate a which hillary clinton is. candidate b, if i have the momentum and i'm chasing somebody and it's bad story after bad story after bad story because we've seen structurally how things have changed so quickly. i hate to say this, but i've been saying that for three weeks. we were talking about georgia and texas last week. he's going to be humiliated. this is going to be worse -- he

still may be because a week is a lifetime in politics. how many times do i have to say it? trump may still be humiliated. who would i rather be right now? if i weren't donald trump. if you said i get to run the last week of a campaign and choose her position or trump's position, i take his. you've got the momentum. you've got the wind at your back. and you still don't know what's going on. i tell you something also interesting happening that we have to -- by the way, hillary clinton -- i say that just because i think too much of myse myself, folks. hillary clinton is still the favorite. i would put it where nate silver puts it. 75/25. i would put it there. just relax. don't go under your bed and get in a fetal position and get your cheetos out. it's going to be okay. i think hillary is still going to win. don't freak out and spit your cheetos through your nose.

it's going to be okay. relax. >> it's like ten seconds too long. >> they really have gone on too long. freaking out. >> you're going on too long. >> what's happening here, mika, we have people who are actually returning home. returning to their home party. i'm hearing it from republicans who were saying somebody very close to my family said -- told me after the second debate they would never vote for donald trump in a billion years. send me a disgusted text yesterday saying my choice is between an idiot and a crook. i can't believe it. i'm going to have to vote for the idiot. it's my only choice. that's how republicans are thinking. offensive to people i understand. democrats, you hear the same thing on the democratic side. >> i am. i've been trying to figure out -- that's what worried me about the fbi story and so many contortions going on in my brain about this. she should win this election.

but i will tell you that story was real, and we have to cover it, and there are real questions. it is self-inflicted as i've said and the reaction to comey seems to hollow and reactive and borderline dishonest. i think the strategy is strong because it's going after the real, honest weaknesses of her opponent and that's the math the voter ultimately has to do. donald trump or hillary clinton. hillary clinton and her staff is much better when they are on the defensive. you know, ten days ago going to concerts and feeling like this was won, that's just not hillary clinton. that might be bill clinton. that might be the male point of view, which is how we got this. women, we don't -- we fight until the bitter end to get where we need to go. i think she's now doing that. it's hopeful. it's going to be to the bitter end. i'm hearing there's potential he

could win. that's disturbing. and now you're seeing a campaign that is focused on the right things and trying to fight, fight hard, and fight ugly in the right way. but it's been a rough week, don't you think? >> i was in -- >> i think a lot of people are coming home to their home party. >> i'm interested in that. hopefully we can talk about it more. i was in an airport coming from lsu after giving a talk in baton rouge. some guy stops me -- they love the show. he's talking to me about politics. if there's a crook who is going to go into the cockpit who knows how to fly the plane, and then there's an idiot who doesn't know how to fly the plane, i'm going to vote for the crook. >> isn't it funny? it's sad. that's how people are using this and they're saying if they're democrats they're kind of using that -- let's just say crook idiot. you heard it. i've heard it. and both of those are unfair to

both of the people but that's how people are stripping it down. they're justifying it their way based on their belief system to say i rather have the guy who doesn't know what he's doing than the woman who does who is a crook or vice versa. of course where does that bring us in 2016? a very depressing place. >> democrats who literally had tears in their eyes when they voted in 2008 and 2012 because they were so moved by their candidate, talk to the same ones now and they'll have -- >> they'll have tears in their eyes again. >> still ahead on "morning joe," hillary clinton is renewing her attack against donald trump's treatment of women with former miss universe alisa matchetto on

the campaign with her. hallie jackson will join us, frank bruini and bill krystol. and one week from today, a special edition lined up for the morning after the election. we'll be live from historic studio 8h on 30 rock here on november 9th for complete coverage of the 2016 election. willie is a happy boy. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.

as ai can embrace a worldber, full of surprising moments. the new marriott portfolio of hotels now has 30 brands in over 110 countries. so no matter where you go, you are here. join or link accounts today. hillary clinton: far too many families today don't earn what they need and don't have the opportunities they deserve. i believe families deserve quality education for their kids, childcare they can trust and afford, equal pay for women, and jobs they can really live on. people ask me what will be different if i'm president? well kids and families have been the passion of my life and they will be the heart of my presidency. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. heart of my presidency. i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. listerine® total care strengthens teeth, after brushing, helps prevent cavities and restores tooth enamel. it's an easy way to give listerine® total care to the total family. listerine® total care. one bottle, six benefits.

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>> what happened? is that an alarm going off? >> we will build a wall. mexico will pay for the wall. they'll be happy to do it. we have tremendous trade deficits with mexico. they'll be happy to pay for the wall. rely on me. do you think we can do it,

folks. >> those are great. willie, which one -- we want to see number two. we want to see coked up donald trump again. let's watch. kids, don't do this at home. >> we will build a wall. mexico will pay for wall. they'll be very happy to do it. mexico is making a fortune off the united states. we have tremendous trade deficits with mexico. they'll be very happy to pay for the wall. rely on me. do you think i can do it, folks? >> my god. it's so easy to do. why didn't anybody think -- we want that rudy one. can you find that for us. >> kasie hunt was just there yesterday. >> alex, i'm talking to you. can you find the rudy one for us. >> they'll break down the race for florida next on "morning joe." >> we're just going to do all of these drunk rudy in a loop for

the next half hour. >> i saw him walk straight in the eye of the mexican president. he didn't blink. he didn't look like hillary clinton or one of those long answers. hey look, it's those guys.

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>> i know that my wife is not just my equal but my superior. that i want every man out there voting to kind of look inside yourself and ask yourself, if you're having problems with this stuff, how much of it is that we're just not used to it? when a guy is ambitious and out in the public arena and working hard, that's okay. but when a woman suddenly does it, why is she doing that? she has conducted herself so much better in public life than the other guy. that this notion that somehow, you know, it's hard to choose. it shouldn't be. >> hillary clinton is getting a big assist from some of the most

well known men in her party including president obama on the campaign trail hillary clinton is renewing her attack against donald trump's treatment of women. in dade city, florida, yesterday she, was introduced by former miss universe alicia machado who claimed that trump mocked her after gaining weight. >> he made fun of me. i didn't know how to respond. he told me that i looked ugly. he said to me, miss piggy, miss housekeeping, miss eating machine. soon it became a joke. alicia machado was a fat miss universe. it was really painful for me. >> he sure has spent a lot of time demeaning, degrading, insulting, and assaulting women. he calls women ugly.

disgusting. nasty. all the time. he calls women pigs. rates bodies on a scale from 1 to 10. i mean, really, can we just stop for a minute and reflect on the absurdity of donald trump finding fault with miss universe. you got to ask, why does he do these things? who acts like this? i'll tell you who. a bully. that's who. >> so mark halperin, you really have a refocusing here this week obviously doubling, tripling down of hillary clinton going for women voters and locking them down and just showing donald trump's past sins against women here. tell us why the campaign -- when they made this decision. >> this is part of the theory of the case they've had from the beginning of the general

election. put a ceiling, a hard ceiling on trump support in the battleground states in part in large part by putting a ceiling on support among independent and republican women many of whom are going to vote for hillary clinton. i think there are lots of ways to describe the race. on the clinton side can they keep that ceiling firm and on the trump side, can they take advantage of the fact that hillary clinton just does not have the intensity of support, you can measure it lots of different ways, that barack obama did have. you talk about african-americans before. she's still got a problem with young people. she still has a problem with single women. hispanics are better for her as part of that coalition. they're going to spend the last week as much as they can now and you see it in paid media as well trying to keep women from voting for donald trump even after the fbi investigation and affordable care act, et cetera. >> again, i got to say at this point just like you said before, we're talking about a race that is tightening once again

advantage remains with hillary clinton. >> yes. the clinton campaign has also released another ad that highlights comments that trump has made about women in the past using his own words against him. here's part of one. >> putting a wife to work is a very dangerous thing. when i come home and dinner is not ready i go through the roof. grab them by the [ bleep ]. when you're a star they let you do it. you can do anything. i would look her right in that fat ugly face of hers. she ate like a pig. >> do you treat women with respect? >> i can't say that either. >> all right. good. >> joining us now msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt just back from reporting in florida and in miami, "the new york times" reporter. good morning to you both. i'm watching those ads.

we hear "access hollywood" tape and look at the event yesterday and we see former miss universe. two pivotal moments. i think the slide donald trump had when hillary clinton set the miss universe trap at that first debate. >> if you talk to democrats who had frankly until maybe this week believed this race was over. they believe it has been over since that first debate and that was really a turning point. i do think the fact that she's pivoting back to these -- they are negative messages that have worked for her. donald trump on one hand is unfit to be commander in chief. shouldn't have nuclear codes. two, unacceptable to women voters. they wanted to get away from that message and spend the last week running positive ads and talk about her vision. >> so she had an ajea >> so she had an ajegenda after she won. they can't now and that's a reflection of the fbi story and what impact it will have. >> are you surprised that we find the clinton camp now in wisconsin and going to all of these states that were supposed

to be locked down last week? >> i'm a little bit surprised by the amount of time hillary clinton is going to spend there. i think mark made this point earlier. they do have money to spend and no one wants to make a mistake that you end a campaign that you lost with a couple million dollars laying around. >> is this just hillary clinton saying -- i would do this myself. i would say lock it down. if he's in michigan, we're in michigan. if he's in wisconsin -- i mean, i'm not saying this is a weakness. i'm just curious what you've heard. i would do that. i would nail down what i already had. these are states she should have. >> i have to tell you, i've had republicans talking to me about michigan for several weeks now. and this is something that had really stayed off of the radar. it's kind of a split camp to be honest. some republicans are tell ming , hey, there's warning flags for democrats. they're trying to focus in on this. others say donald trump won't win in michigan.

i covered bernie sanders' surprise against hillary clinton. mitt romney ran trump robo calls in michigan in 2012. this is a place where i think there is potential risk. as for the numbers, i do think they are seeing movement among college educated white voters. one of the reasons why -- >> movement toward -- >> toward donald trump. one of the reasons her lead felt so strong and durable is that group of people typically tend to vote republican. they were all saying i can't handle donald trump. that's part of why you see that down ballot split because they were on the other hand saying i can vote for the senate candidate. >> harold ford yesterday was worried about michigan. and now we hear that republicans have been talking about michigan. that would just be an absolute shock if donald trump won michigan. do you think that maybe some people are overthinking all of this?

>> i have to agree with what kasey said. i covered bernie sanders and i was on the phone with bernie sanders when he found out i was winning michigan. senator sanders, michigan looks like it's going to you. he was very, very shocked at that. he had that kind of press conference where he was really put together and not really understanding what he had really won this. i think that the things donald trump has taken from bernie sanders and idea about trade and bringing people back to work and idea about opening up factories, those are the messages that resonate in places like michigan. it's not overthinking it because of the week that hillary clinton had last week. a lot of democrats are worried about the state of the race. a lot of people felt like she would be in cruise control this week and that's just not the case. >> we had an nbc news tracking poll yesterday that showed the e-mail story over one week hadn't had that much of an impact nationally. are you hearing that on the trail? are you hearing that from

voters? are they dialed into the e-mail story or just confirm what they already thought about hillary clinton? >> i spent the weekend talking to a lot of voters in north carolina and what i'm hearing from them is not that the e-mail issue is changing their minds but that it's really motivating people to go to the polls whether or not you're a hillary supporter or trump supporter. when i talked to people, i talked to one man who said he saw the banner with e-mails news going across the screen. i need to be up at 8:00 a.m. saturday for early vote and another part of the city another older couple said we were thinking about voting on the day of election but when we heard about these e-mails, we want to cast our ballot for donald trump. i don't think it's really changing anyone's minds. if you thought that hillary clinton was someone who was corrupt and that she had done something wrong with her e-mails, i don't think fbi revelations changed your mind about that. same thing with clinton supporters. i don't see people leaving her and even some supporters who i talked to that worry about

whether she's going to end up indicted. i would rather have tim kaine as president if it comes to that than donald trump. >> must read opinion pages are still ahead. we'll be right back. [burke] hot dog. seen it. covered it. we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪

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we're following breaking news out of iowa where two police officers are dead in what officials are called an ambush-style attack. officers from the des moines police department responded to reports of shots fired around 1:00 a.m. local time when they found an officer from the urbandale police department who had been shot and killed. he was found still seated inside his patrol car. about 20 minutes later, a second officer, this one from the des moines police department was also shot. he was found seated in his vehicle. that officer died of his injuries a short time later. police say it doesn't look like there was any interaction between the officers and

"whatever coward shot them." no information on the suspect has been released. we'll be following this breaking news story. and that news comes as five police officers who were killed by a gunman during a july rampage across dallas were honored last night for their service. the organization friends of the dallas police held their annual banquet and event featured a video tribute to the slain officers. families of each officer were also given a police cross for their loved ones sacrifice and recently retired police chief david brown offered some symbolism through music by singing marvin guy's "ain't no valley high enough" and telling the room he loved them. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe."

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>> if you love our country and love your children as much as i know that you do, stand and speak and vote your conscience. >> that's true. what you just said, joe. >> it is true what i just said. i won't say it for air. i just said i love jesus. >> he did not say that. >> eddie? >> is there anything wrong with loving jesus. i guess that's not in vogue around here anymore either. come on, eddie. >> indeed. >> what did you say this election was right? you just tweeted it. >> i said the last stretch felt like an extended dry heave.

there's nothing left. but we still have to go -- >> you still have no choice. >> i know. >> you have no choice. it's an extended dry heave for six more days. >> this is where hillary clinton supporters need to do the right thing. mark? >> i love eddie's use of very academic metaphors. it's one of the things that make him so strong. there's still a lot of people unhappy with both candidates. what i'm sensing from being out here for a couple days now is you are seeing a rallying of the partisans. intense desire on democrats to stop donald trump from getting the white house and equally intense desire on behalf of republicans to stop hillary clinton from getting there. there will be dry heaves but a lot of energy. >> people again returning home to their parties and getting ready intense this final week. for ted cruz who we just saw there voting your conscience

means voting for the man he once called a sniveling coward. paul ryan said he voted for our nominee -- >> it's like the fonz trying to apologize. >> whose name shall not be -- >> ted cruz's dad was on the grassy knoll. >> if ryan and cruz can vote for trump? what about the rest of the gop? we'll ask rick tyler about the prospect for republican reunification. that's ahead on "morning joe." (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat.

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>> welcome back to "morning joe." one of the things that makes this show so special is we get people that are outside of the bubble that have been outside of the bubble that come back in -- i'm talking like pensacola. sit down in the stands. and so we have richard haass who wanted to get outf the bubble. we went to paris and also the four seasons in london. >> cholesterol level is high. >> now under russian rule. >> have you seen two bubbles when they attach to each other and it makes one bubble. >> what do they say about afternoon tea at the four seasons in london, what are they saying about trump in america? are they more concerned about trump in america or brexit in britain? >> it's a close call. two things that are totally preoccupying. >> are they actually linking those together and

understanding? are people starting to understand why brexit happened and trump is happening whether he wins or loses and merkel is on the run? >> yes. what makes them nervous in another way is brexit vote for a lot of people was surprising so it makes them more nervous. if europe could vote, they would obviously vote for hillary clinton so they worry that brexit could be a precedent for what will happen here in a week. >> you really didn't talk to anyone, did you? >> room service. >> spoke to the waiter. what more do you want? >> what is their practical concern if donald trump were president of the united states? not just they think he's a loud mouth and they don't like him. what are they worried about? >> look, they are so dependent on us, they have basically farmed out a lot of their security on us. this is true with asian allies and true with europeans. it's as if you had a money manager and gave them all your money and found out this guy is

not who i thought he was. they put security and concerns in the hands. united states and they are now worried all of the things they thought they could assume they no longer believe they can. >> which plays into the center of donald trump's hands. barney frank used to say this. ha we both said this. why are we still carrying the rest of the world? why are we still carrying germany. that's what middle america is saying. why do we have to pay their defense when they are adverse airy. what we spend is less than half the cold war average. it's not because of how much we're spending on defense. this is a bargain for the united states. people don't explain that. but it is a bargain. we're spending barely just over

3% of our wealth. >> we spent a lot over the past decade. we have defense budgets over $550 billion in iraq and afghanistan, et cetera, et cetera. our bridges are crumbling. >> what we spend in iraq and afghanistan was a mistake. that's not because allies were forced to do it. we made big mistakes there. to take it out on basics of american foreign policy that served us so well during and after the cold war, that to me would be a mistake. in their word, we're going to do that. >> your time served you well. >> thank you so much for bringing that home to us. it is the top of the hour and you're watching "morning joe" on this wednesday, november 2nd. we're speaking with the president of the council on foreign relations, richard haass and also with us chair of the department of african-american studies at princeton university a and nbc political correspondent

kasie hunt, mark halperin, rick tyler and tom bevan. tom, what's going on? >> right now it's machine versus momentum. trump has momentum. polls are tightening nationally in a lot of swing states and clinton is trying to activate that machine and get as many votes in the bank as she can and keep those firewalls in some of those battleground states. >> tom, i saw yesterday chris said that -- >> north carolina moved this morning. a poll drop last night that had trump up seven. that shifted the average. so if you take our no tossup map right now, i think trump is at 259. clinton is at 279, i think. >> so in real clear politics average today this morning,

clinton 279, trump 259. that is pretty surprising. quite a change in a week. >> let's dig into this. >> almost as if a week is a lifetime in politics. >> let's dig into this. just six days left. a new poll has the race in a dead heat. "the washington post"/abc news tracking poll shows trump and hillary clinton tied in a four-way race at 46% each. yesterday trump was up 46 to 45. the reuters ipsos poll gives clinton a lead after the new developments in the clinton e-mail investigation. clinton 43%, trump 37% and gary johnson at 6%. a new poll in virginia shows a five-point race to the finish. 44% for clinton. 39% for trump. 5% for johnson. two points for jill stein and evan mcmullin who was also on the ballot there. in missouri, trump has seen a

nine-point swing in his direction since mid october where he's now leading by 14 points. 52% to clinton's 38. in north carolina, a poll taken before fbi director comey's letter shows the race effectively tied. clinton at 42%. trump one point behind at 41%. three points for johnson. new data shows that early and absentee voting is significantly higher than at this time in the 2012 election. according to voter file data provided by target smart, the number has nearly doubled to 26.2 million from 13.5 million in 2012. this as democrats are worried about a drop in early voting among african-americans. "the new york times" reports that in north carolina black turnout is down 16% while white turnout is up 15%. and in florida, the share of african-american electorate that has gone to the polls in person

so far has decreased to 15% from 25% four years ago. >> of course the same story "the new york times" says appears to be the case in ohio as well. i have to say, i'm rarely surprised on this show. but just talking to tom hearing this morning that the number 279-259 in real clear politics average and it's just an average, and again it's very fluid. things could change in a week in both directions. are you surprised by that, 279 to 259, mark? >> no. you know, we've talked about trump potentially at 265 for a while. we said for trump to have a chance a couple weeks ago when things were going so badly for him, he needed to win some news cycles and he needed some luck and needed to be more disciplined. he needed hillary clinton to have problems with certain constituencies that voted

overwhelmingly for president obama. all of those things have come true in the last ten days. that gives him a chance. it still leaves her the heavy favorite. still leaves him trying to figure out is it possible to get from 259 to 265 to 270. >> and let me ask you, rick tyler, 279 to 259. would you still call hillary clinton the heavy favorite? or is this more of a tossup to you? >> i think she's still the favorite structurally. we have another week to go. that's a lifetime in politics. things could change. but right now with this comey letter reminded people that this e-mail deal is not done. it was sort of put behind her when the fbi had decided not to indict her. of course they didn't even have a grand jury. so i don't know how they're going to do that anyway. it's a real problem. reminded everybody what they don't like about the clintons. it also reminds people of the staff that she keeps around her, which is cheryl mills, heather

samuelson and someone has to ask them, are you going to make a clean break for these people. these people gave her bad advice over and over again. ultimately it's her fault. these are people -- i don't know how they can work on an administration and if corruption is her biggest weakness, how is she going to convey to the american people that she will not continue with a corrupt administration and it seems these people from e-mails we're reading in wikileaks, these people seem to be the problem. they're the enablers. >> willie, what do you make of this north carolina moving in real clear politics average 279-259. we've been saying for a while it could be up to 265 but as we said even before we talked to tom and we need to get back to tom that last five is going to be the hardest. getting from 265 to 270 is where it's really heavy lifting. >> the new poll, north carolina poll that tom and others are averaging in there, that shows a seven-point lead there for trump. that's been a lot higher than

we've seen. that race has been tight. "the new york times" last week had it seven the other way. i'm not sure that seven is the lead there. north carolina, if hillary clinton does in fact win north carolina, that's 15 electoral votes, that's a backbreaker for donald trump. tom, do you look at the states where hillary clinton is spending time and money in the last week of his campaign. michigan, wisconsin, back into virginia and colorado as actually being in play or just shoring up the places where she knows she needs to close him out once and for all? >> i think it's a little bit of both actually. i think she was trying to lock down. we've seen polls tighten in virginia. i think michigan has clinton folks worried. in primary, she was up 21 points in pre-election and it was biggest miss of the year and they don't know why the bottom dropped out for her in michigan. it is a little bit of both.

florida now trump is ahead. north carolina is less than a point. so these states that are in flux, they are basically tossups at this point in the game. so, again, six days left, a lot can happen. >> it can go either way. there are so many close races that depending on how the last week goes could make the difference between hillary clinton winning or donald trump winning. the democrats having a massive night in the senate. are republicans holding serve? >> richard? >> it could go either way. it's getting so close in so many key states. >> one of the things it says to me is how difficult governing is for whoever wins. a divided country. divided congress. divided parties. getting things done domestically, foreign policy, will be more difficult. 2020 will probably start about the afternoon after the 2016 polls close. >> i can see that. hillary clinton seems to be playing defense as the 2016 election goes into its final

days. chasing donald trump into the blue states. as we mentioned, she's following trump's recent visit to reliably blue michigan. clinton will visit the state which last voted for a republican 28 years ago. the clinton campaign also announced six figure ad buys in michigan, colorado, new mexico, wisconsin, and virginia. all recently were considered safely in her column while also continuing her play into arizona. >> i wonder, eddie, whether they got a little too confident a little too quickly. i remember three weeks ago, four weeks ago, saying they were pulling out advertising in colorado. why are you doing that? i'm a firm believer that you, you know, i always say it. tear the buildings down. salt the earth. make sure nothing grows back again. if you're in a campaign, it's what you got to do. they left colorado. they should have stayed there.

>> i don't believe in playing defense. then when they wind up in the red zone, you don't know what to do. you're going to panic. i'm really struggling here and i'm struggling for a variety of reasons. republicans are coming back home. i think the confusion around the clinton campaign strategy of appealing to the obama coalition but yet trying to in some ways triangulate and get republicans to come over to her. that chicken has come home to roost in interesting sorts of ways and elephant or donkey in the room, right, is the headline in "the wall street journal" today. there is this kind of anxiety about the changing demographics of the country that the rapid change, that browning of america is having an impact on this electorate and just recently a report that for the first time in the history of taking this stat that there are more babies of color being born in the united states than white babies.

so it seems to me that we've been dancing around this since the beginning of this election. race is at the heart of this. >> i tell you one of the things that's so fascinating. we talked about it a lot during the democratic primary. you could predict who was going to win a state based on whether the percentage of white voters in that state were above the national average. if they were, bernie sanders was going to win the state. if the percentage of white voters were below the national average, chances were overwhelmingly good that hillary clinton -- so even in the democratic primary now you're talking about this. it's pretty remarkable that it is that predictable. >> it gives us an indication of, shall we say, the history of our country that is still present president. >> george will writes in "the washington post" this is a final fitting chapter to 2016's sleaze

sweepstakes. when the clintons decamped from washington in january of 2001, they took some white house furnishings that were public property. they also accepted more than $190,000 in gifts. count the spoons identified the clintons defining characteristic. they have no capacity for embarrassment. words like shabby and tawdry come to mind. they don't begin to do it justice. so here with the united states choice restore the house of clinton or confer executive powers, powers that president obama by his audacity and congress by itsllethargy they d disentangle the personal and the political. >> isn't that the name of your memoir?

count the spoons? always stealing things. i think that column right there, i don't know if you would put yourself in the same camp as george will, you talked about your struggle. that's how people feel about this. you may go in the booth and vote for one candidate or another, a lot of people will hold their nose in this election and not cast an affirmative vote but vote because they can't abide by the other person in the white house. >> there are a couple people at this table twho will vote no neither hillary clinton nor donald trump. i wonder how much of the candidates' final week is based on that knowledge. it's not about getting people affirmatively over to them but driving them more away from their opponent. >> fear is very much get out the vote motivator. we talked about this earlier. that's the primary strategy here for hillary clinton. she spent one day talking about donald trump not having the nuclear code. another day talking about his relationship with women.

they are closing this in a very kind of negative way and to richard haass's point earlier, i think this bodes very -- it's a real potential problem for trying to govern in washington. you can feel this election falling back into the same patterns even if the assumption that hillary clinton is going to win holds, republicans are retrenching and a lot of people voting for her had to hold her nose to do that and they feel like they'll have free reign to investigate the clintons. i'm not sure that all of this talk about change and how that was what the electorate wanted, i don't see any way that they actually get it. >> rick tyler as you watch the last six days of the campaign come down the homestretch here, is this tightening something that we should have expected that this does happen near the end of a campaign? is this a story? what are we seeing here? >> you saw it in 2008 campaign with barack obama and john kerry lost that race.

it's going to tighten. people will throw everything they can at them. this race has turned negative. i might disagree on the governing point. i actually think that hillary clinton would be much better served if she had a republican house and a republican senate and the reason is if she gets a democratic house and senate and wins the election, the left will misread a mandate and they'll push her too far to where she doesn't want to go. she's more pragmatic than people give her credit for. from people that i talk to on the hill, she worked very well with republicans in the senate. i see that she has a much better potential of working with republicans over the course of her first two years in the administration. republicans will get back the senate in 2018 anyway because of the way the races are lining up. so we'll have to see.

>> we'll have to see. quickly, what's happening with the abc poll? what are they doing? they've got trump up one where i guess ap has a bigger spread. nbc/survey monkey bigger spread. what are they doing differently at abc? it just came out this morning. we can now report they have it tied. donald trump at 46. hillary clinton at 46. gary johnson, 3. jill stein, 2. >> this is a situation where -- polls have margin of error. there is some swing in there. i don't know that anybody thinks the electorate moved 12 or 13 points in the last eight days. i think that's a reflection of what you saw in "the washington post" poll. let me just say, i really do think the country can be unified and rally around a cubs victory in the world series tonight. >> i was wondering where you were going with this.

richard haass, tom bevan, rick tyler, thank you all. molly ball reports on how hillary clinton prepared for the wrong kind of campaign. plus, steve kornacki and bill krystol of here as polls tighten and mike pence calls on republicans to come home simply some of them will not. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. the world is full of surprising moments.

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>> tightening polls don't worry hillary clinton. in fact, her campaign is planning an election night explosion of fireworks over the hudson river. wow. she hasn't even won and she's planning her celebration. i hope the big finale is when they spell out the word hubris. they are having chicken. right now they're just eggs but they're counting their chickens. >> coming up, new numbers out this morning on the state of the race among independent voters has hillary clinton and donald trump locked in a statistical

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intercom: the library [ kis now closing.] ok kid, closing up. goodnight. the hardest part about homework shouldn't be figuring out where to do it. through internet essentials, comcast has connected over 3 million people in need to low-cost internet at home. welcome to a brighter future. comcast. 24 past the hour. in spite of tightening in the polls and calls for mike pence to come home, evidence that conservatives are having a hard time doing that.

robert costa spoke to republicans in wisconsin. it's a moral choice. i can't get there. i can't get to trump. i'm a husband and father and i can't convince myself to vote for a person that's weakening the fiber of the country and you're in a town that's about going to college and raising a family. people are polished and hard working. he's not one of us. adding i did try. joining us now, msnbc anchor and political correspondent steve kornacki and editor of the weekly standard bill krystol. within all of that -- >> the only guy i know actually that tweets harvard scores live. >> the country cares. >> what a guru. >> i know there are so many people that think ohio state, alabama, some of those ridiculous schools. harvard last weekend. huge.

big. >> go big green. hockey game with michigan. >> this is on. >> bill was on and he's tweeting -- he's tweeting harvard scores. the only way it gets better is if we're with richard haass and tweeting harvard scores. >> we're really outside the bubble here on "morning joe." >> with the quotes that i read from costa's piece, is there another story here? the hidden vote? the people who won't admit they're voting for trump or is that kind of just a mirage? >> that's what we're going to find out. for that to come into play, it has to be in a lot of these states closer than we see in the polls. if you saw a margin of one point or something in a state and said maybe there is a small fraction out there that won't admit they're voting for trump. other thing i'm wondering about looking at these polls, the

reason that "the washington post"/abc news poll tightened so much, they are talking about motivation. trump voters are more motivated to vote at least to go vote for trump versus voting for clinton. one thing i'm wondering about that they're not measuring that could be factor is something we haven't had to think about before. negative motivation. how many people are motivated to vote against trump and how many against clinton? >> we had a lot of people that too focused on those averages. turns north carolina over to trump. says it's 279-259. you look at those averages closely. as willie said, this is survey usa that shows trump up by seven points. i don't think it's anymore plus seven for trump than it was plus 12 for hillary nationally a week ago. >> i think the indications in north carolina for the month of

october were pretty good for clinton and bad for trump. if you're the trump campaign, i think what you got to hope is fbi news at the end of this campaign did cause some kind of jolt in north carolina and you have to deal with the fact that there's early voting that's been taking place in north carolina so that's a factor as well. if you're the trump campaign, i think you are behind by a couple points in north carolina. you take polls out there for october. that's what they suggest to me. the question is did the fbi news, did that jar republicans, did that jar some of the swing voters in the state and move them to trump in the last week of the campaign in a way that will make up 2, 2.5 points. that's probably what he was behind. >> you said what i'm thinking which is at least a week out. we don't know. again, a week is a lifetime in politics. at least a week out. right now this feels a lot like 2012. where all of the romney people said we got 40,000 people in pennsylvania. we've got -- but structurally it was still set up for an obama

win. >> there were polls showing romney plus one. i tend to think -- i don't know. who knows. i've been wrong enough about trump in the primaries. you look at early voting, which is real voting. not a survey of 600 people where you have to weigh different groups. as i understand it from reading those that study this closely in north carolina and nevada, clinton is -- you can't tell who someone is voting for. the people who are voting. ballots coming in in terms of the area they're coming from, those are big early voting states. nevada, north carolina, and florida. pretty good. nevada and north carolina look good for clinton. better than 2012 relative numbers. florida i think looks at least as good as it did in 2012. very close in 2012. so i don't know. it still looks to me like hillary clinton wins and do you often get in races a rally by the underdog two weeks out, ten days out, kind of closing. people come home and then contrary move at the very end back of the front runner.

my gut instinct is hillary. mike barnicle had a fantastic idea. they need to extend the world series for six days. it's the kind of -- it's a great competition. clinton/trump bad competition. indians/cubs good competition. can't we get a few more days of it? >> on early voting in florida, one question, party i.d. is overwhelming the most predictive thing in knowing how people voted. in florida there may be a factor at work where republicans may be splitting their tickets. marco rubio has been working hard to get out vote among republicans in miami. there's question among people i talk to down there are voters there saying, yes, i want marco rubio but not voting for donald trump. i think that's something to keep an eye on. >> you can make an argument possibly the other direction that there are a lot of those florida republicans that are voting for donald trump and not

voting for marco rubio. we saw how the primary went. again, it just shows we're all in a fog right now and we're all guessing. >> on the other side of it, eddie represents some democrats that said i leave the top line blank and go democratic from there. >> that's where the fbi thing matters. it won't change votes. some percentage of people will talk themselves into voting hillary clinton a week ago and now think it's too much. i will vote for neither. that's the threat she faces. >> a newly released poll shows a tight battle for independents in the homestretch of the campaign. hillary clinton has the edge taking 39% of self-identified independent voters nationwide. donald trump at 35%. one in four are not sure. in a four-way matchup, clinton is at 30% with independents. trump at 27%. libertarian gary johnson captures 19% while the green

party's jill stein takes 8%. 16% undecided there. the poll was conducted after the new revelations about potential evidence in the clinton server investigation. 25% said it made them less likely to vote for clinton. independents accounted for three in ten voters in 2012. mitt romney won the group by five points. 50-45. >> what's your takeaway from bloomberg's poll here? >> as mika just said, mitt romney did win independents and a lot of people on his team thought he would win when they saw on election day he was winning independents in the exit poll. they thought we're going to win. of course we'll win ohio. hillary clinton is one of the few polls taken since the fbi news, hillary clinton can be thankful and grateful and relieved that the bottom did not fall out with this group that would obviously be sensitive to this kind of new information. it doesn't mean she's a lock to win but independents and democrats form enough of a

majority for her and plurality for her that if that's reflected on election day, she'll win. >> final thought from steve kornacki. what are you looking at? >> there's these must-win states for donald trump. there's a half dozen out there. we know what they are. florida, north carolina, ohio, iowa, nevada. i think -- he's got to do that and he's got to take a blue state on top of it. you work one thing at a time. must-win states. two that i look at in particula right now where he has real trouble. north carolina. you've talked about that. the other one is nevada. nevada is the one where i put most into early voting numbers that we've seen coming out there. i think one thing as you were talking earlier about the drop-off in enthusiasm among black voters for this election, what nevada is suggesting to me is there may be an uptick in latino enthusiasm that donald trump has stirred. in nevada that could be a state where it really -- >> we may be seeing that in florida based on numbers that i've seen too. >> there were numbers about

florida and early vote republicans defecting. i'm not sure. that seems like a subset of a subset. i'm not sure that i quite read into it as much as -- >> indians are cubs? let's put it on the line here. let's get right out there. >> man. i'll tell you what, you just got to go with a pitcher that did as well as he did in the first game and the fourth game. >> indians. >> i think the indians. >> i'm rooting for the indians. i'm a conservative. 108 years tradition. you hate to break that kind of tradition. it's one of the great things about america is tradition that cubs never win the world series. is it worth it really? and all sentimental articles about an 84-year-old guy in chicago never seen a guy win the world series. his grandfather was there in 1908. it's going to be a sea of

sentimentality for a week if cubs win. >> as a red sox fan, it's hard not to be cheering for the cubs because -- >> i'm for the cubs. >> red sox fans understand. i will not say this about other cities. i do not say this about the blue jays or the yankees but i love both of these organizations. i love the cities they're in. and i cannot pull against either one of them because i love them so much. >> america wins tonight. i think we all agree. whoever wins, america wins. i was born in evanston, illinois,vy i have to root fore cubs. >> i tell you what though. two great midwest towns. >> up next, instead of targeting hillary clinton's e-mails, donald trump and mike pence zeroed in on obamacare. hallie jackson joins us live with more on the strategy from

trump tower. "morning joe" is back in just a moment. >> i will ask congress to convene a special session so we can repeal and replace. it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody in this country because obamacare has to be replaced.

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>> if we don't repeal and replace obamacare, we will destroy american healthcare forever. it's one of the single most important reasons why we must win on november 8th. we must win. the president said if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. which may go down as one of the great political lies of the century. >> wow.

donald trump on obamacare. joining us now nbc news correspondent hallie jackson who is covering the trump campaign. hallie, he came out talking policy yesterday. >> how surprising with everything that he could be talking and be distracted by, he's staying laser focused on obamacare. >> which is a message his campaign believes is really effective frankly and potentially more effective than going after clinton on the fbi news. donald trump was talking policy but it was mike pence who was talking policy who came out before donald trump and delivered the nuts and bolts of the speech. trump did six or seven minutes on obamacare but got into his stump speech as well. pence talked about what they want to do as far as health savings account, et cetera, and the nitty-gritty. but what was interesting was trump really hitting the obamacare message hard on the campaign trail. what that's going to do, they believe, is try to boost them in places he's playing in like pennsylvania where he delivered

the speech and like michigan and wisconsin. i got off the phone talking about the landscape as we see it shift six days out. they don't need to win all of the blue states but pick up one and they believe pennsylvania and michigan are right up one and two. wisconsin they realize chances are trickier although they still feel good about it. buying ads in new mexico, is it real? they say it is. they feel stronger about the midwestern rust belt type states. >> so pennsylvania is still at the top of their list? >> they are still feeling good about pennsylvania. they are sending -- they have family members going. you have melania's trump speed there -- speech there tomorrow. he's trailing double digits when it comes to women in those philly suburbs. it's a difficult and uphill climb. >> we heard this story before. philadelphia. seriously, willie, it is linus

and the great pumpkin every fall. >> we showed bucks county around philadelphia a month ago of hillary clinton absolutely dismantling donald trump in those places. where do they see places to gain in pennsylvania? >> the middle part of the state, i think. places where you would traditionally see more of a republican bench from pennsylvania. i also think -- i don't think the campaign is taking it when he comes to florida. he's in pensacola. he's spending -- >> 18th time. he likes my hometown. >> he knows florida is important. they know that ohio is really key as well. i think that, you know, they feel probably the best that they've felt in a long time this week with him. even though mike pence is talking obamacare, donald trump is talking obamacare too. >> staying more focused which brings us to what you had said before after the "access hollywood" tape you sort of put together a list of things that donald trump had to do if he was

going to get back into this race. he needed to win news cycles. he just wasn't doing that. he's done that now. and then hope for some clinton controversies. republicans to come home. clinton to have trouble with the coalition to be more disciplined, et cetera, et cetera. it looks like of those 11, it looks like he's done the overwhelming majority of those over the past week. >> let's not overstate it as i say in my tweet. she's still the structural favorite. it's a long list. trump has done all 11. all he's done is put himself in position to compete here but as we've been talking all morning, the electoral college is unforgiving. it would be for any republican. even if he wins the big five, north carolina, florida, ohio, iowa, and nevada, he still is short and they can say all they want they feel good about

pennsylvania or they feel good about michigan. they're not ahead in the public polling. they claim they're ahead in their polling. despite a good run here, he's still in it but he's still can't show how he wins. >> i think he can get to 270. i think there is a chance. like you, i think she is still the structural favorite. i don't see it going through pennsylvania. nevada as steve said earlier, nevada and north carolina are two challenges he needs to nail down before he even starts thinking about playing in pennsylvania. >> and i think actually steve was right about nevada. there were a lot of democrats nervous about nevada until the early votes came in. harry reid has a very close read on what's going on in nevada. his people paying close attention. they helped hillary win the primary there. i think they now when i talk to them say, look, if this early vote holds plus what we expect on election day, nevada will be fine for us which is a much more

confident position. joe heck flipping back on donald trump gives you an indication. now he says he's for him. it was squishy. a switch from before. i think that shows you that he's had trouble. he realized i can't win this without the trump base. he's caught there. i think democrats feel good about it. pennsylvania, i agree, it's a really difficult climb. >> this was a very personal decision for him he said. now today six days before the election this news. >> hallie jackson, thank you. >> just take a side and stick with it, man. we don't even care which side it is. >> still ahead, it might have been tim kaine's what is aleppo moment? according to one cbs reporter, he asked what is a cheese curd? >> that was definitely alex.

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up next, she can't escape insatiable men. frank joins us next.

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wow? what wow? there is no wow. hillary clinton is consistently treated differently than just about any other candidate i see out there. to the guys out there, i want to be honest. you know, there's a reason why we haven't had a woman president before. i want every man out there who's voting to kind of look inside yourself and ask yourself, well, if you're having problems with this stuff, how much of it is, you know, that we're just not

used to it? and when a guy's ambitious, out in the public arena, working hard, well, that's okay. but when a woman suddenly does it, suddenly you're like, well, why is she doing that? >> joining us now politics writer at the atlantic magazine, molly ball and frank bruny. let's start with frank's. we teased that. we were very disturbed. >> i disturbed you. >> his latest column is hillary's male tore mentors and he writes in part, quote, this, weiner or no weiner, hillary clinton is likely to be our next president, but she can't seem to escape insatiable men. she married one for better, for bill b bimbo eruptions, for two terms in the white house for impeachment. she's in the climatic part of the season. and if she fails again there's a priapic protagonist.

the fbi wouldn't be examining anthony weiner's laptop if he hadn't invited so many strangers to examine his lap. >> boy, i'll tell you what, frank. >> ew. >> you were bored during the basketball game last night. >> no, you've read enough, mika. are you an insatiable man yourself? >> i'm not an insatiable man. i do think it's fascinating, rich, ironic. there are so many opportunities in the picture. there's some kind of epically needy, profoundly undisciplined man. here with the weiner last-minute thing, you once again have the appearance of a certain type of thing conspiring in her face. >> mika, that's what you said before. when you saw the picture of huma and hillary on the plane. you were like, oh, my god, the men -- >> just get rid of the men. we need a woman president for so many reasons. >> the men that have been around this woman are getting in her way every step of the way. >> and, i mean, if you look at

some of the crises this country has faced, it's been undisciplined men and only men at the top. >> getting in her way or maybe affording her an opportunity. i think if she wins this election, and i think she will win this election, it will partly be because of the kind of man donald trump is. >> that's true. that's true. just very screaming view. >> she is completely surrounded. >> god. >> the fate is -- we are talking about internally. >> heat problems. >> all right. molly. >> let's go to you. >> save her. >> molly, your piece -- >> does not sound like a cialis commercial. >> hillary clinton's march to victory. you write this about the 2016 race that clinton originally expected. she had prepared for a normal campaign. instead, she got a hair on fire carnival ride, a russian spy thriller, a national nervous breakdown of an election. every day she got up and recited the same jokes and exhortations and every day the hackers

released more of her adviser's private communications onto the internet and every day her improbable opponent, a sort of primal scream in human form, waived his arms and called her a criminal. she had piles and piles of proposals and then it turned out the election wasn't about any of that, it was about trying to be as inconspicuous as possible and waiting for the fire to burn out. it was about being slightly less of a monster. >> molly, you had said just waiting for the -- as you're reading that, i'm thinking jeb bush, jeb bush, jeb bush. >> oh, my god. >> meet hillary clinton. >> yeah. >> here you have these establishment families who both -- who lead from the very beginning but this carnival marker, this fire was going to eventually burn out. we're a week out. it hasn't yet. >> that's right. although i have to say, i think hillary clinton prefers this campaign to the campaign she would have had to run against a jeb bush or a marco rubio that

would have potentially been a lot more of a challenge because you wouldn't have had the kind of contrasts that frank's writing about with the insane gender dynamic. you wouldn't have had all of the noise and scandal that surrounds donald trump who, you know, for all of his untraditional appeal to some voters is a tremendously unpopular and damaged presidential candidate, i think especially given that hillary has not managed to remain inconspicuous with how they were. >> trying to be involved. >> is this really happening?

how is this even possible? if you had written this at the movies, people would have said, no, that's too farfetched. so i think the question is not just what does this mean for a week ago -- a week from now when the election happens, what does it mean after that? how does she govern? how does she bring the country together given the insane fracture that this is revealed, you know, not just in political life but in american society. it feels like the whole country is falling apart. i don't know how first of all a hillary clinton presidency is conceivably the answer to some of these questions that the campaign is raised. it seems like different universe i. how do you govern or pick up the pieces. >> how is that the answer to washington doesn't work? >> how do you govern really is the question. we talk about this election ending on tuesday. this election is never going to end. we were already reading about -- >> stop. >> -- investigations, the factions that the fbi want to launch. we have republicans saying we're going to begin investigating

hillary clinton on day one of her presidency. this of all the elections we've been through in the past couple of decades is never going to end. >> frank, please leave. >> no, don't leave. >> this election is never going to end. >> he's right. >> he's looking at for instance clinton foundation. the fbi is at war. that war is going to spill out into the streets and i suspect this investigation's going to be launched. >> it's at such war that we're seeing leaking on a scale we've never seen before. why do we think that's going to end after tuesday? we're really in dangerous, turbulent waters in this country. >> frank rooney, we will be reading this and molly, yours is in "the atlantic." >> thank you, guys. >> and the next hour of "morning joe" starts right now. this is the message for any democratic voter who have already cast their ballots for

hillary clinton and who are having a bad case of buyer's remorse. in other words, you want to change your vote. wisconsin is one of several states where you can change your early ballot if you think you've made a mistake. a lot of this stuff has come out since your vote. so if you live here or in michigan or pennsylvania or minnesota, those four places, you can change your vote to donald trump. we'll make america great again, okay? and good morning. >> that's a relief, willie, right? for a lot of people. >> he's not wrong. you can change your -- >> can you really? >> it's wednesday, november 2nd. welcome to "morning joe." we are getting there. we are getting there. >> a week? >> and you're ready for hillary. you're ready, mike? >> ready, mike? >> mike barnicle is here. >> they don't feel it.

>> something very, i feel, i feel discriminating just happened to me in the hall about an hour ago. chair of the department of african-american studies at prince ton university and column ns eddie flower jr. one hour ago i was walking down the hall and eddy is there and he walks right by me like -- honestly kind of like moving over to the other side. i had no makeup on and he was -- >> seriously. >> neither did eddie. >> no, but eddie looked the same is the problem. >> that's funny. >> you'll be hearing from -- >> he had no idea i was. this happened to me walking into cbs when i anchored the evening news. they didn't let me in. i'm sorry, but that's the real me. take a look at my driver's license. >> claire washington, managing editor of bloomberg politics. mark halpern. >> you guys all look the same. >> let us hope that vacuum cleaning has already taken place this morning.

>> i like when mark does his live shots. >> room service coming up next. i like the back drop. >> we have to talk about it really quickly.seven. this is a fall classic, right? >> wow. >> the only sad thing is that there's not a game eight, nine, ten, 11. >> i think we're good. >> chicago cubs, the bats came alive. >> they did. >> 9-3 was the final. glaring mishap there in center field. couple of home runs. the kids on the cubs clearly played a lot looser in cleveland than they did at home in chicago. >> it had to be suffocating, the expectations of over a century, willie, when you're over there. tonight though, i mean, you talk about one for the ages. i mistakenly said that mickey lowich was the last pitcher to win three games in the world series. randy johnson did it in 2001. but he was the last starting

pitcher to win three. i mean, started out and go. we've got a chance to see that again tonight. it's going to be the best bats against the best pitcher. can't get any better than this. >> you can't ask for more in sports. i remember we had the nba finals in june. game seven, two best players. lebron and steph curry. can't get better than baseball. two teams that both deserve it. the country if you don't live in one of the losing cities would be happy for whomever wins. >> that's fun. >> get some cleveland fans that are just about to lose it. >> oh, i bet. >> going seven with the cavaliers is one thing. going seven again with the indians. >> it's so painful. >> it is painful. >> they've got their guy pitching. >> they got the man on the mound. >> on three days' rest. >> for the second time in the series. >> it's unbelievable. >> we have a lot to get to. there is some political news this morning. six days left and a major shakeup in the race still settling in. it's time to look at the polls.

washington post/abc news showed a significant shift towards trump this past week. clinton has a six point lead after the clinton e-mail investigation, clinton at 43%, trump 37%, gary johnson 6%. in missouri trump has seen a nine point swing in his direction since mid october where he is now leading by 14 points. 52% to clinton's 38. in north carolina an elon university poll taken before fbi director comey's investigation, 42% and trump 1 point behind at 41%. 3 points for johnson. but in an automated poll taken for wral by surveyusa in the immediate aftermath of the fbi revelation, trump rockets to a seven point lead. 51 to 44. now this one could be an

outlier, it could be. >> yeah. i think actually it is an outlier and also state like north carolina, this one is going to be close i think all the way to the end, but "the new york times" and our own jeremy peters, meek yeaika had a story causing concern for the clinton camp, specifically in north carolina, in florida, in ohio. >> all right. so that's the new data that shows that early and absentee voting is significantly higher than at this time in the 2012 election. according to voter file data provided by target smart, the number has nearly doubled to 26.2 million from 13.5 million in 2012. this as democrats are worried about a drop in early voting among african-americans. "the new york times" reports that in north carolina black turnout is down 16% while white turnout is up 15%. and in florida the share of the

african-american electorate that has gone to the polls in person so far has decreased to 15% from 25% four years ago. >> and, eddie, similar concerns for democrats in the clinton team in ohio. >> right. >> jeremy peters of the times says they're concerned this is a much bigger problem. >> right. >> a problem i have been hearing about anecdotally over the past four, five days from friends who are supervisors of elections. didn't say anything because you're hearing so much garbage from all sides. this is the highest ever for democrats, highest ever for republicans. actually what we're talking about, turnout being significantly reduced for black voters is something that you've been warning about for some time. the intensity level of support for hillary clinton, you've been worried about it. according to "the new york times" this morning that's now something that they're really worried about. >> i think there are three things that we have to be mindful of here. i think one is something that the benchmarks of 2008 and 2012 might be a bit much.

>> yeah, right. >> way too much. >> historically high. >> you have obama on the ticket so to actually use that as a benchmark is unreal. >> can't do it. >> i think people have underestimated the level of cynicism among black voters about what's possible in american politics between 2012 and now. >> you had said you weren't going to vote for hillary clinton. you're still not voting for hillary clinton. just refuse to? >> just refuse to. i'm in a blue state though. i say people in -- >> if i was in pennsylvania or north carolina would you vote for hillary clinton? >> i would hold my nose and everything else and vote for hillary clinton. >> for hillary clinton? >> yes. but then i think there's a third issue we need to be mindful of. i think this morning a court is -- a judge is hearing naacp suit around voter suppression in north carolina. you have three -- three counties, for example, i think beufort, moore and cumberland where voters have been purged from the rolls and reverend

barber ii as leader of the naacp has brought suit. >> the republicans are rigging the election in north carolina. >> what we're saying is what's been called voter fraud might very well be voter suppression. he's making the -- the naacp is making the case that these folks have been illegally purged from the voter rolls. you combine that, joe, with the fact that you have neonazis, alt right folks saying they're going to show up in all 50 states at the polls to engage in voter intimidation. you have all of this happening at the same time. >> it sounds like at least in north carolina some people believe that the election is being rigged, some democrats believe the election is being rigged. willie, jeremy peters talks about -- some of that talks about in florida where voting is expanded you still have the same situation going on where black voters just aren't going out at the level that the clinton campaign felt they were going. >> i think eddie's first point was very important. they weren't going to come out

and vote for hillary clinton like they did for barack obama. if you want to know how concerned hillary clinton is about this. look where she's going. on friday, four days before the election she'll be in detroit. in detroit, michigan, a state which she felt like she had in hand for a while. >> right. >> a city which she certainly has had in hand. it looks like a lot of people she's playing defense as the 2016 election hits the final dates chasing donald trump into the blue states losing ground in the polls. the democratic nominee is visiting michigan as i said on friday, just four days before the election. clinton will visit the state which last voted for a republican 28 years ago. the clinton campaign announced six figure ad buys in michigan, ohio, washington, virginia. >> let's just stop right there. those states, mike, stunning that just last week everybody was mocking and ridiculing trump. he was going to lose texas and

georgia. one week later as we've said, a week is a lifetime in politics. put those states up again. hillary clinton is having to go back in with ad buys in michigan, in colorado, in new mexico, in wisconsin and surprising -- most surprising to me -- >> virginia. >> -- where the race is a six-point race according to the latest poll we have, virginia. >> right. >> well, they're tracking polls i assume showing the same as the tracking polls we've used here. the race is tightening. they don't want to have happen to them what happened to john kerry in 2004 when his campaign ended and they had about $20 million left in the bank. spend it. get it out there. reinforce what strengths you have in those states because it is -- it is shrinking. part of this deal, eddie referred to it, you know, the shrinking base of black voters who would come out in support of hillary clinton. there's an increasing awareness

among voters as we approach tuesday, i don't like either candidate. >> yeah. >> but you have to do the math and choose one because one of them's going to be president. >> so i would assume that the spending in those states is targeted to groups. please, i'm begging you, come out and vote. >> yes. yeah. one of the top superpacs is ramping up its ad spending. turning to colorado and the first time wisconsin. >> unbelievable. >> this as the trump campaign puts its faith in the candidate's ability to flip traditionally blue states. yesterday trump's deputy campaign manager laid out their target states for electoral college victory. north carolina, which has trended towards clinton and picking up iowa, florida, ohio which would give him 259 of the 270 needed to win. the rest rely on flipping states like michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire, colorado, new mexico, nevada, or

maine's second district. and trump's campaign announced a $25 million ad blitz including michigan and new mexico along with virginia and colorado. just last week democratic vice presidential candidate tim kaine said california would be important. >> we have one week until the most important election in my lifetime and wisconsin is absolutely key. we've got to have you, wisconsinites. we absolutely have to have you. will you support hillary clinton? will you make sure we win wisconsin. >> mark halpern, you're in wisconsin because wisconsin is suddenly on the minds of both campaigns. what a difference a week makes. a week ago you were accused of everything short of being a neonazi for simply saying this race could still be competitive and you were right. here we are, a week later. i cannot believe the hatred and the vitreol that was spewed at

you for saying the race wasn't over by fools in the media who decided to be cheerleaders instead of reporters. it's been that way for too long. here you are right again and right in the middle of it in wisconsin. who would have believed that last week. what's going on? >> an election. >> reporter: well, hillary clinton -- hillary clinton still has the advantage she's had from the beginning. the democrats have an electoral college advantage. they've got a demographic advantage. she's got more resources. >> but, mark, it's all over. it's not even competitive. that's what we've heard for three weeks. it's all over. it's not competitive. if you say it's competitive, then you're a neonazi. >> reporter: here's what's changed. right now look what donald trump has. first of all, he gave two very strong speeches yesterday. he's closing on the message that a lot of his supporters, including paul ryan had wished he would run be on forever. change. changing washington, not letting the clintons back in the white house. the candidate is performing pretty well, at least he did

yesterday. second is he is is putting her on the defense in these states. it's not just that people said the race was over, they said forget pennsylvania, forget wisconsin, forget michigan, forget colorado. the democrats, you know, the ad spending is one thing because they've got a lot of money, but when bill clinton is going to colorado, when hillary clinton is going to michigan, when chelsea clinton and tim kaine are coming to wisconsin, you know that they're feeling a little bit nervous. they've been tight-lipped about their internals but there's no doubt donald trump has a plausible path. the biggest thing that's happened is the information flow since the obamacare announcement last week, almost every day donald trump's been able to win the news cycle simply by reading the newspaper aloud. >> yeah. >> she has not been able to break through with new stories from the wikileaks to obamacare to obviously the fbi matter. she has been on the defensive. >> yeah. >> and i'll say one last thing. e trump campaign was not competitive on paid media up until recently.

their ads are running big and they're running ads saying hillary clinton's old, donald trump is change, that has always been the message if he had a path to victory that he needed to run on and he is now. >> just to tell you how quickly things change in baseball and in politics, and actually mark knows that things change quickly in politics, that's why he didn't jump off the cliff with the rest of the lemmings saying this race was over. nate silver had a tweet. do we have that tweet? so nate silver says, at this point the election's a long way from being in the bag for clinton. yeah, trump has the same chance of winning as the cubs have a chance of winning the world series. that was two nights ago. >> reporter: joe, there's -- >> yeah. >> reporter: sorry. there's one other point that's really in hillary clinton's favor, which you still see in some of this polling even as it's narrowed which they've counted on from the beginning. a ceiling on donald trump

support. if his support tops out at 42, 43, 44%, even in the four-way race, it's not going to be enough to win. that is still the big question. >> and wouldn't that be the ultimate irony, if the last shot the media had at donald trump was talking about his, quote, ceiling that willie and mika and i were mocking reporters for nine months for talking constantly about donald trump's ceiling and being proven wrong every single time. as tom brokaw says, we don't know until people go out and vote and a lot of people got ahead of themselves last week. i have to tell you, willie. i look at the map and i still can only get donald trump to 265. >> right. >> i still -- it's going to require him to win a colorado or a wisconsin to get beyond 265. right now it looks like he's -- i think the washington post yesterday said if you looks at the real clear politics averages, he's in the 230s right now.

go ahead and add nevada, go ahead and add arizona, go ahead and add north carolina. you're still up at 259. add one or two others, you're at 265. the last five are really going to require -- that requires him winning north carolina, which i still think regardless of the polls we've seen is a really steep climb, but let's say he wins north carolina, he still has to win wisconsin or a colorado. that really would be quite a surprise. >> yeah. if you go online and play with the map, you have to be very generous to donald trump to get him to 270. you have to get him to win states that he's not likely to win. all those states we just put up there, you mentioned michigan, wisconsin, colorado, he has to win those toss-ups. the likelihood of her suddenly in less than a week slipping that far in states she's 4red a led all along is small. there's a very small chance he could flip those states.

>> who would you rather have, hillary clinton or donald trump? >> i'll tell you what, you don't want me to answer that question because i'm all about momentum and right now -- >> but to your point, the electoral college map -- >> so let me put drk let me put it this way. if i'm choosing between candidate a and candidate b, structurally i'd rather be candidate a, which hillary clinton is, but candidate b, if i've got the momentum and i'm chasing somebody and it's bad story after bad story after bad story, because we've seen structurally how things have changed so quickly. i hate to say this, but i've been saying it for three weeks. three weeks is a lifetime. two weeks is a lifetime. one week is a lifetime. we were talking about georgia and texas last week. >> right. >> yeah. >> he's going to be humiliated. this is going to be worse than -- and he still may be because a week is a lifetime in politics. >> yeah. >> how many times do i have to say it? trump may still be humiliated, but who would i rather be right

now? well, if i weren't donald trump, if you said i get to run the last week of a campaign and choose her position or trump's position, i'd take his because you've got the momentum. you've got the wind at your back and you still know what's going on. i'll tell you something interesting. by the way, hillary clinton, i say that just because i think too much of myself, folks. hillary clinton still is the favorite and she still i'd put it like -- i'd put it where nate silver puts it, it's 75/25. i'd still put it there. just relax. don't like -- >> all right. >> -- go under your bed and get in a feet tall position and get your cheetoes out. it's going to be okay. i think hillary is still going to win. don't freak out and start spitting your cheetoes up through your nose. just relax. >> stop. >> it's like ten seconds too long. >> they really have gone on way too long. >> just stop. no, you're going on way too

long. >> so what's happening here, mika -- >> just stop. >> -- is you have people that are actually returning home, returning to their home party. i'm hearing it from republicans who are saying -- somebody very close to my family said -- they told me after the second debate they would never vote for donald trump in a billion years. i was sent a text. they said, well, my choice is between an idiot and a crook. i can't believe it, i'm going to have to vote for the idiot. it's my only choice. that's how a lot of republicans are thinking. it's offensive to people, i understand. democrats though, you're hearing the same thing on the democratic side. >> i am. you know, i've been trying to figure out -- i think that's what worried me about the fbi story and i had so much contortions going on in my brain about this because she should win this election but i will tell that you that story was real and we have to cover it and there are real questions and it is self-inflicted, as i've said, and the reaction to comey seems

so hollow and reactive and borderline dishonest. i think now she's doing the right thing. i think now the strategy is strong because it's going after the real honest weaknesses of her opponent and that's the math the voter ultimately has to do, donald trump or hillary clinton. and hillary clinton and her staff is much better when they are on the defensive. still ahead on "morning joe," raising arizona. jacob soberof joins us live from what hasn't been considered a battleground state in years and yet both mike pence and hillary clinton are campaigning there today but first bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> the big weather story will be in cleveland. it's a warm day across the country. 8:00 p.m. first pitch. cleveland looks just fine. here's the rain coming into the picture. by the time we get to about midnight it's pouring around toledo getting close to cleveland. as long as we don't go extra innings we should be just fine for the world series game seven tonight. again, if it goes late it would be a very close call.

we don't want that to happen. we don't want a delay at the end of game seven. 70 degrees, i think we're going to get it in. rain after midnight. now only six days from the election. i can start giving you your election day forecast and we continue with a very warm, tranquil weather pattern. looks like very little chance of any weather problems of people getting to the polls. some swing states like wisconsin, looking just fine, chicago, minneapolis. ohio, could be a few showers around. temperatures in the 60s. that's warm and unusual. no problems in the southeast. florida looks good. texas no problems. as we go into the west, we have problems of rain with oregon and washington. overall we couldn't ask for a better election day forecast. a close race plus a great forecast should equal an incredible turnout on election day. world series game seven all eyes on progressive field. "morning joe" will be right back. if you're told you have cancer,

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coming up on "morning joe," a michigan surprise for hillary clinton in the primaries losing to bernie sanders. could one be ahead in the general as well? david brooks and jeff greenfield will join us with a look at the math just six days to the election. with polls in florida and ohio tightening, jeff's here to remind you that the last candidate to win the white house without those two states was jfk in 1960. before danny got what he was dreaming about for the holidays. before his mom earned 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas.

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my wife is not only my equal but my superior. i want us -- i want every man out there who's voting to kind of look inside yourself and ask yourself, well, if you're having problems with this stuff, how much of it is, you know, that we're just not used to it. when a guy's ambitious, out in the public arena, working hard, well, that's okay. but when a woman suddenly does it, suddenly you're all like, well, why is she doing that? she has conducted herself so much better in public life than

the other guy. that this motion that somehow, oh, you know, it's hard to choose. it shouldn't be. >> hillary clinton is getting a big assist from some of the most well-known men in her party, including president obama. on the campaign trail hillary clinton is renewing her attack against donald trump's treatment of women. in dade city florida she was introduced by former miss universe alesha machado who claimed trump mocked her after winning the title. >> he made fun of me and i didn't know how to respond. he told me that i looked ugly. he said to me, miss piggy, miss housekeeping, miss eating machine. soon -- soon it became a joke.

alesha machado was a fat miss universe. it was really painful for me. >> he sure has spent a lot of time demeaning, degrading, insulting and assaulting women. he calls women ugly, disgusting, nasty all the time. he calls women pigs. rates bodies on a scale from one to ten. i mean, really, can we just stop for a minute and reflect on the absurdity of donald trump finding fault with miss universe? you've got to ask, why does he do these things? who acts like this? and i'll tell you who, a bully. that's who. >> mark halpern, you really have a refocusing here, this week obviously a doubling, tripling down of hillary clinton going for women voters and locking

them down and showing donald trump's past sins against women here. can you tell us why the campaign -- when they made this decision. >> reporter: well, this is -- this is part of the theory of the case they've had from the beginning of the general election. put a ceiling, a hard ceiling on trump support in the battleground states in part, in large part, by putting a ceiling on his support amongst independent and republican women, many of whom are going to vote for hillary clinton. i think there are lots of ways to do it. keep the ceiling firm. can they take advantage of the fact that hillary clinton does not have the intensity of support, you can measure it in lots of ways, that barack obama did. you talked about african-americans before. she still has a problem with young people. she still has a problem with single women. hispanics are better for her as part of that coalition, but they are going to spend the last

week, you see it in their paid media now, trying to keep women from voting for donald trump even after the fbi investigation and affordable care act, et cetera. >> again, i've got to say at this point, like you said before, we're talking about a race that's tightening once again the advantage remains hillary clinton. >> released another ad that highlights the comments donald trump has made against women in the past using his own words against him. here's part of them. >> putting a wife to work is a very dangerous thing. when i come home and dinner's not ready, i go through the roof grab them by the [ bleep ]. when you're a star, they'll let you do it. you can do anything. i'd look her right in that fat ugly face of hers. she ate like a pig. a person who's flat chested is very hard to be a ten. >> you treat women with respect? >> i can't say that either. >> all right. good.

>> joining us now, msnbc political correspondent casey hunt just back from florida. i'm watching the ads. we're hearing the "access hollywood" tape. i see the event yesterday. we see the former miss universe. those were two pivotal moments. that was when hillary clinton set the miss universe trap. >> if you talk to democrats who had believed until this week that it was over, they believe it has been over since the first debate and that that was really a turning point. i do think the fact that she's pivoting back to these -- they're negative messages that have worked for her, right? she's saying donald trump on the one hand is unfit to be commander in chief and shouldn't have the nuclear codes. two, is unacceptable to women voters. they wanted to get away with that. they wanted to be positive. >> they wanted to be positive at the end. >> so she had an agenda after they won. they can't now clearly. i think that's a reflection of the tightening polls and of this

fbi story and whatever impact it's going to have. >> are you surprised, casey, that we find the clip ton camp now in wisconsin and going to all of these states that were supposed to be locked down last week? >> i'm a little bit surprised by the amount of time that hillary clinton herself is going to be 13e7bdi i spending there. mark made this point. they do have money to spend. you don't want to end the campaign and lose with a couple million. >> are they seeing the numbers? i would be doing this myself. i would say lock it down. >> right. >> if he's in michigan, we're in michigan. if he's in wisconsin -- so i'm not saying this is a weakness, i'm curious what you have heard. i would do that. i would nail down what i already had and she's -- these are states that she should have. >> i have to tell you, i've had republicans talking to me about michigan for several weeks now. and this is something that had really stayed off of the radar. i mean, it's kind of a split camp, to be honest. some republicans are telling me,

hey, there's warning flags here for democrats. they've been trying to focus in on this. others are saying, no way. donald trump's not going to win in michigan. i covered bernie sanders surprise against hillary clinton. i don't think that you should write it off as any possibility. mitt romney ran trump robo calls in michigan in 2012. i mean, this is a place where i think there is potential risk. coming up on mornings joe, young, conservative, bitterly divided. a new "usa today" survey shows college republicans deeply conflicted. member to member, chapter to chapter on donald trump. just 19% endorse donald trump. 52% made no statement. >> can you believe it, 19%? >> that's not alot. >> i saw a demographic map of how the election would go if -- if it was just millennials voting and republicans got wiped out. it's a real challenge for the future. just ahead, david brooks of

"the new york times" joins us to talk about the uncertain future for the impressionable republicans and their thought leaders. we'll be right back. how can good paying jobs disappear? it's what the national debt could do to our economy. if we don't solve our debt problem 19 trillion and growing money for programs like education will shrink. in just 8 years, interest on the debt will be our third largest federal program. bad news for small businesses. the good news? there's still time for a solution. ask the candidates for a plan to secure our future. the market.redict but through good times and bad... ...at t. rowe price... ...we've helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. (ee-e-e-oh-mum-oh-weh)

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i know it's not easy to be a millennial and be conservative. as i said when i started the speech, it's your burden. >> donald trump jr. says it's a tough time to be a young conservative but our next guest says the opposite is true in part because of the trump campaign and its big need yeah backers. david brooks writes in "the new york times", i feel very lucky to have entered the conservative movement when i did back in the 1980s and '90s. talk radio, cable tv and the internet have turned conservative opinion into a mass-market enterprise. small magazines have been overwhelmed by rush, o'reilly, breitbart. today's dominant conservative

voices try to appeal to people by the millions. you win attention in the mass media through perpetual hysteria and simple-minded polemics and by exploiting social resentment. it's ironic that an intellectual tendency that champions free markets was ruined by the forces of commercialism, but that is the essential truth. a trump defeat could cleanse a lot of bad structures and open ground for new growth. it was good to be a young conservative back in my day. it's great to be one right now. david joins us now from washington, along with author, columnist and political analyst jeff greenfield here on set. >> david, great piece. i want to dig into it a little bit here with you about the trump voter. i wonder why you think so many self-described conservatives over the last 18 months have been convinced that a man in donald trump who's been a democrat most of his life, not really a conservative if you look through his stances on issues, why have so many

conservatives been convinced that he is the guy that should be president? >> well, first because they don't like hillary clinton, but second because the issues have changed. all our lives we've been on one issue map and that was an argument between big government and small government and whether we should have more freedom, activism and equality. that debate is over. we have a new argument now, it's between open and close. between the people who feel the tail winds of globalization at their backs and they want to open trade and immigration. a lot of people feel blasts in their face. they want security and arms around them. trump with his authoritarian style, b with closed borders, c with closed trade, d with america with activization, it's with older conservatives. a friend is a conservative. he said the progressives, their

people are all young. our crazy people are old. this is being brought to us by old crazy republicans and the younger ones have a different attitude. that's why i'm sort of very curious and really optimistic about what's about to happen in the republican party. the young conservatives are not the trump people. they want something completely different. >> jeff, it's jeff greenfield, david. one of the things that's puzzled me all along is how much the conservatives in years past have emphasized character. "when character was king" was about reagan. all about character. what in your view has enabled some of these conservatives to overlook what looks like pretty disabling character traits that they in years past would have warrant against? >> when i was 25 we made this huge distinction, jeff, you knew bill buckley, he was my mentor. we made a huge distinction between conservatives who had some beliefs and republicans who were chamber of commerce types who would sell you out. that was a really important

distinction to us. that distinction has gone away. being conservative and republican has taken over. being part of the partisan tribe is like people's ethnicity now. they'll support anybody who's in favor of the ethnic tribe. one of the most amazing polling statistics this year was asked of evangelical voters. they asked, would you tolerate somebody with bad morality if they were a good public leader and about ten years ago, like 31% said yes so they would not tolerate somebody with bad personal morality. now it's like 70% say yes. they totally will tolerate somebody with bad personality and bad personal morality. that's not because they've had some change in philosophy. they've got donald trump at the top of the ticket. they somehow have to rationalize their road for them. it's not conservatism, it's republican tribal identity. >> let me ask the both of you, start with you, david, you made the conscious decision several months ago, you wrote about it, to leave the offices, go out in the country, see what people are

thinking, write about what people are thinking about in this country. do both of you think, you now live a large part of the time, jeff, in santa barbara, california. >> the hartland. >> yeah. so do you think that this campaign on both sides, on both the democratic side and the republican side, the candidacies, the verbiage of the campaign has injected a virus into the body politics that is going to be with us for several years after this election is concluded? >> i would say it's injected a virus. whether it lasts, i don't know. it's a virus of mistrust and cynicism. the assumption that everybody is out to get you, and i hear this wherever i go, that they are out to get you. we have been betrayed. once you feel you have been betrayed, then you are given permission to act in betraying ways with others. to not grapple honestly with the facts, to be super aggressive, get your retaliation in first. there's a lot of that going around. i fear wherever i go, in the

last couple of weeks i was in mississippi, nebraska, idaho, texas. you hear these stories of betrayal and you hear stories of contempt and disgust. that's not a way to go out open into the world. a generation ago if you asked most people, do you trust your neighbors, 52% said yes? now it's 32%. i do hold that hope that we can snap back. >> you know, the thing is though, mistrust has been a long time coming. i always would pick through a list, partly when i was in washington. >> yes. >> '98 -- 'or 99 impeachment beings 2000 the recount, 2001 september 11th attack, 2002, enron, 2002, wmbs. i can literally keep going, 2005, katrina. there's something every single year that has chipped away at the public trust. >> it's not just about government. this has been going on a long time. it actually goes back all the way to the vietnam watergate. people's trust in institutions

raping from business, media, labor, even the church has declined. the key to that, what's been amazing. it goes to what david brooks has been talking about about conservatives. look at all of the conservative institutions or the conservative movements that have tried to disassociate from trump. legal scholars say, no, no, no, he is not our guy. conservative national security people saying trump is a clear and present danger. trump's voters actually don't trust these people. they don't listen to them. they think they're part of the establishment. >> like brexit. >> look at all of the conservatives newspapers in texas and idaho and arizona have never endorsed a democrat. they have no weight with the trump supporters. in my view, the trump people don't believe them. >> david brooks, jeff greenfield, thank you very much. up next, hillary clinton campaigns in reliably red arizona today, and there's one down ballot race we're following that could be a strong indicator of whether clinton has a real chance there. we'll go live to phoenix next.

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ii could stand in the middle of a5th avenue and shoot somebody and i wouldn't lose any voters, okay? and you can tell them to go f**á themselves. you know you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever. you gotta see this, i don't know, i don't remember. he's going like 'i don't remember.'

i've never liked marijuana. but i'm voting yes on prop 64 to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over.

it has important safeguards for families, like strict product labeling and child-proof packaging of all marijuana products. and banning edibles that would appeal to a child. raising a teenager, that regulated system makes a lot more sense than what we have now. plus, 64 taxes marijuana to fund priorities like after-school programs. personally, marijuana's not for me. but my mind's made up. i'm voting yes on 64. hillary clinton and mike pence are crossing paths in arizona. the democratic nominee and republican vice presidential nominee will be less than seven miles apart. joining us from phoenix is jacob soberof. you're following a race in that state that could be a bell weather for the battle between clinton and trump. explain that.

>> reporter: mika, there could be a new sheriff in town when it comes to november 8th. joe arpaio, tough talk on immigration, the original mole for donald trump's candidacy. he's facing contempt of court, criminal charges related to a racial profiling case to which he has pleaded not guilty. he's facing his stiffest competition to getting elected. paul penzone could unseat him. it could have implications for the national seat. i went over to penzone's campaign. >> sorry to interrupt. >> how are you doing, sir? >> good to meet you, jacob. is this a bell weather for the larger of what you're going to see in maricopa county and in some ways joe arpaio is the original donald trump. >> sure. >> he wins all the time. >> yeah. how are you all feeling? what are the odds? >> looking at returns right now.

if we're looking at polling we're up about eight points. >> if you didn't look at this number and you looked at his tenure, he's going to spend $15 million in a race and we'll spend 1 million and other factors. if you were in vegas, they wouldn't give us great odds. >> why are you polling so far ahead now when you lost last time against the same guy? >> there's nothing different in this room. nothing different with how we're going about business. what's different on my opponent, cases that weren't investigated properly. facing criminal charges. it's all coming together to where this community is tired of it. >> so this is the 2012 results. this is the map of greater phoenix maricopa county. >> the last time he ran and lost? >> right. blue is areas he won by 1,000 votes or more. red is where he lost by 1,000 votes or more. >> okay. >> this is areas he outperformed. these are areas that he did better than the registration numbers alone. more registered republicans but he performed very well. >> maybe some crossover voters? >> totally.

>> got it. >> so we started working our way out into the suburbs really of phoenix and getting paul out there. >> these are your key hugely strong areas in 2012. these are areas where he did better than you expected him to do. >> than he should have. >> now you are reaching out beyond the clinton campaign watching us have this conversation thinking, you know what, these are areas that we want to be also. >> yeah. for sure. the map is clear where folks need to be converted. i mean, it's -- it's absolutely in red and blue. >> reporter: so fascinating, guys, for me to be inside that campaign war room and see that strategy map. it reminds me so much of what we've all seen towards the east and around columbus, ohio, around philadelphia where those reliably red suburbs are shifting to a shade of blue or maybe a lighter shade of red and that is what will help penzone here and it will help hillary clinton if she can follow in his

footsteps here in hari maricopa county. >> thank you, jacob. as you look at those areas for donald trump, it has to do with temperament. do those suburban voters think he has the temperament to be president of the united states. for hillary clinton it's about trustworthiness. what are the clinton people doing? what are they doing this final week to move the numbers? >> they're on the air in arizona and she's going to visit there. i think they feel like arizona is the perfect storm for everything we've seen happen with trump because latino voters obviously very important there. white voters have been very angry about immigration in particular. i think that big picture trust issue, frankly, they don't seem to be answering that question right now. the solution is to go negative and make people more afraid of donald trump. >> i think there's the added value of the fact that her candidacy makes history. i know trustworthiness is an

issue. on election day they'll say she beat back russian spies, she beat back anthony weiner, she beat back her husband and she beat back everybody and kept fighting and now we have the first woman president and that page will turn very quickly. that's my gut. >> i think in the primary when she became the nominee and even at the convention we underestimated that. there was so much focus on her horse race and the negatives. the night came and a lot of people stepped back and said, wow, this is history. i think we've kind of forgotten that. >> it's gotten so dirty. >> the clinton campaign is going where you suggested, temperament and character. the temperament with the nuclear question. a little girl in the daisy ad now all grown up talking about whether or not donald trump should be near the nuclear codes. that's one thing. then his character, you saw alesha machado on the stage, a call back to the first debate. >> that hit home for women. >> and to remind what he said about her and other women.

>> mike, they wanted to go high but they're low. >> they did not do that. >> a low. >> they're both going low. >> the country's low. >> what does it mean for the country? >> the country is low but the big piece in "the new york times" today, front page, black turnout drops. voting ill for clinton. we all accept that because it's not barack obama on the ballot. i think whole card on tuesday, i think it's where she's going to spends the bulk of her time for the next three or four days, are the suburbs. the suburbs of this country. that's where it's going to be, i can't vote for trump will come to fruition. >> philadelphia, columbus. >> yes. >> raleigh durham. >> it goes one of two ways. it goes, i can't vote for trump. >> yes. >> in the philly suburbs, columbus, in hillsboro county, florida. >> or they don't vote? >> or they don't vote. or, my massachusetts friend, they say i can't vote for

hillary clinton and how that falls really depends. >> there's one place in this country that is a brexit place, i think. >> where is that? >> michigan. >> michigan may be brexit. it may be a shocker. the clinton campaign seems to think that. i still though, i'm still looking at north carolina. i think that may be the most important state this year. trump may get really close. he's got to get over the top of north carolina. i don't believe the poll that says he's up 7 points today. i just don't believe it. that race is really close. >> that does it for us this morning. >> game seven. >> game seven. >> game seven! >> go cubs. >> go cubs/cleveland. go both. >> you're such a politician. >> you know what, i'm not -- i love both of these teams. >> stephanie rule picks up the coverage right now. >> whatever. hi there, mika. i'm stephanie rule. it is game on. it's the final sprint. candidates and surrogates are in an all out