in case you missed it, the next time you see me i'll be in virtual reality. join me at 7:00 eastern. that's right. we're going all vr on nbc news. i will see you on earth 2. "with all due respect" starts now. >> with all due respect to team trump, it looks like the democrats think they've got this one in the bag. on a day when "the new york times" delivers thrilling details, we strike a musical tone including donald trump's change of tune and the blue

state jam session. first polls keep up tempo. we can barely keep one the onslaught of surveys that flooded our inbox today. with less than a week before e-day, florida remains a razor thin race. in one poll, clinton is up by 1 point. in the other she is up by 2 points. in ohio donald trump is ahead by five percentage points. in north carolina accident clinton leads by 3. in pennsylvania, clinton leads by 5 points in one poll. in wisconsin, clinton is still up by 6. while her advantage in colorado has shrunk to 3 points. in virginia she's up by 5 percentage points. and finally in arizona, the state just last week that her campaign was talking about winning, donald trump holds a 5-point advantage. we have a new bloomberg politics purple slice poll, national poll

of independent voters. it shows clinton with a small lead. 30-27%. that is a lot of data. so you've been out on the campaign trail. you've been in wisconsin. you're in iowa today. rudolph giuliani, bill clinton, all over the place. in this jumble of data, as you look at i on the campaign trail. what is standing out to you right now? >> well, if the two campaigns agree, trump and clinton, that her lead has narrowed nationally in the key battle ground states. he and i both have the same experience every four years. if your campaign says you're up 3, you say we have a solid 3-point lead. if you're down 3, you say we're closing the gap. so i would say that donald trump has, everyone agrees, has closed the gap. but there is no under the current polling. he has more to do if he'll be in

the game in less than a week. >> right. you look at this and one of the biggest, one of the biggest changes is that a week ago, smart people that we know were saying that the only suspense left in this election was whether hillary clinton would end up between 350 and 400 electoral votes. nobody is talking like that anymore. you look at all the battleground state polls. the states that hillary clinton needs on win, she still has, she's where she has been if you look at the whole of the last three months. she has a small but stable lead in a lot of battleground states. as you said, right now, if you look at all this data, there's not really a path for donald trump. again, he is within the margin of error. he is within striking distance of a lot of places but he is more behind than he is, narrowing the gap to the place where he would want to be six days out. >> yeah. even as clinton plays defense in states like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania by going herself.

she is still, she can look at the map and say, unless there's a huge national shock, she is going to win enough states. hold most of the blue states and win enough blue states and maybe north carolina on get to 270. so she can, barring a national shock and many states ending up different than the public data, she's got it. >> the way you have to look at this on some level, six days out, whose hand would you rather be playing? her hand or his hand? no doubt you would rather be playing her hand. >> right. so let's talk about this. i'm here, paul ryan doing an event, not for donald trump but for the local congressman here. iowa, like a lot of battleground states, it is hard to move a few inches around without seeing some major national player, a presidential candidate or one of the top surrogates. and all everyone wants to know here in iowa or elsewhere, is

answer to one question. is trump cutting into clinton's lead or is he not? we just talked about, he is cutting into the lead but not enough to get all the way there. for a while, i've been saying there are certain things he would need to do if he'll be in a position to pull off an upset in this presidential contest. a surge in national polls was one of the things. we've seen it in the abc news tracking poll but not a significant surge in any other major national polls. he had to show more message discipline. towed lock into some clinton controversies and there had to be this expansion of the electoral map. so if you look at my whole check list, how many of those things has trump done? not to go ahead but to put himself in the game. >> i think it is fair to say that about half of those. you could look at the check list and say that he's accomplished about half of them. some of these things will be questions about what you meant with your language. what we're not seeing is a surge in donald trump's polling standing.

that's not there. he is creeping into a more competitive position but not surging. he's had a little luck. he has a little sense of momentum but he is still playing defense. he is not really driving. he is trying on drive but not really driving, to my mind, a really potent message of change. i know you have thoughts about this police are probably more nuances than mine. he is making some progress on that list. >> if you put it back up, i would stay two that are both keeping trump and his supporters energized but also maybe creating an illusion. the first thing on that list. winning news cycles. trump went weeks after the access hollywood tape. he's won several in a row. that gives him momentum which is number 10. talking on rudolph giuliani today, according the trump rally, looking at the rhetoric from the campaign, they can say a bunch of stuff ripped from the headlines every day that gives them a expense things are moving

our way. that's a positive for the republicans. it gives them a sense of upbeat spirit. but also a bit of an illusion. it can make them think the polls are tightening more than they are. >> here's a really important thing that we don't discuss enough. we talk about early voting. we saw some polling last night. that suggests that hillary clinton is winning overwhelming when i the vote in florida. we can't know for sure. one of the things that's happening, even if all these things go trump's way, there's been a lot of votes cast already and hillary clinton may already have a substantial, maybe even decisive advantage in some states because of the early vote. all right. so both candidates are honing their closing pitch to voters in this final week. donald trump is out with a new ad today called united. it show cases a more uplifted message than we're used to

seeing from the gop nominee who uses convention speech to describe a country with quote, violence in our streets and chaos in our communities. these days, trump's stump speech while still harping on the system also replete with optimistic rhetoric like this. >> hillary clinton wants us to think small. wants us to believe things can't change and wants our lives to revolve around washington, d.c. i am asking to you dream big, to push for bold change and to believe in a movement powered by the people and by their love of this great country. i'm talking about politicians telling americans to defer their dreams to another day. when they really mean, another decade. america is tired of waiting.

the moment is now. there is no challenge too great and no dream outside of our reach. there is not. there is no dream outside of our reach. don't let anyone tell you it can't be done. the future lies with the dreamers. not the cynics and not the critics. >> that was donald trump last night in wisconsin. future lies with the dreamers. all right. today at a rally in miami he repeated those lines but also returned to his go-to topics. a justice department official involved in the clinton e-mail probe apparently gave the clinton campaign a heads up about when congressional oversight hearings will take place and when clinton's e-mails will be made public. as trump plays these duel roles of attack dog and motivational speaker, how much does it matter that he's added these dollups ofment on mix?

>> like a lot of things going right for trump. it is not decisive by any means but it is certainly helpful. i had one person who watched trump very closely after watching last night's speech saying, if that had been the speech he gave at the convention rather than the darker speech he gave. this would have been a much different race to the republicans during the summer so it is helpful. people like an optimistic president. hillary clinton toggles back and forth between optimism and dark as well. he is rarely that optimistic as he was last night. >> part of the problem when he strikes those notes, they sound so inconsistent and so discordant with the way in which he's campaigned for the last year and a half that they sound sort of false to me. and yes. i agree with you. this will be the third or fourth instance where we cited, if he started campaigning in a different way and in a disciplined way done it over the course of may or june, the

campaign would be in a different place. he hasn't done that though. when you hear him talking about the dreamers and dreaming, you think, who is that guy? not like, oh. that's the donald trump that i've always known and loved. >> yeah. before he was a presidential candidate, i heard him talk optimistically like that quite a bit. there's always been dark many there. we'll see if he keeps up the optimism in the advertising. next, hillary clinton continues. it comes when your insurance company says they'll only pay three-quarters of what it takes to replace it. what are you supposed to do? drive three-quarters of a car? now if you had liberty mutual new car replacement™, you'd get your whole car back. i guess they don't want you driving around on three wheels. smart. with liberty mutual new car replacement™, we'll replace the full value of your car. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance.

a look into hillary clinton's e-mail server. a back handed way, president obama took a shot at the fbi

chief. but also said that the recent move won't impact how voters feel about the presidential race. >> there is a norm that when there are investigations, we don't operate on innuendo, we don't operate on incomplete information, we don't operate on leaks. we operate based on concrete decisions that are made. >> the white house played down the president's remarks but they come a day after the fbi released old heavily redacted documents related to the 2001 investigation into bill clinton's controversial presidential pardon. the fbi says that the posting was in response to a routine foya request. so what is going on? with the fbi and james comey and the presidential race? >> you and i are in agreement about the inappropriateness of what comey did in july, the

inappropriateness of what he did on friday, and i think the fbi did yesterday. it is crazy. just crazy that they are putting, that they are injecting themselves into the race in this way. the only way in which, well, i think it's crazy. number one. and number two, it is starting to then clinton campaign because it is making them such a ripe fat target for the campaign of discrediting that the democrats want to do. the thing yesterday was just, i mean, i can't figure out what's going on there. how the fbi is out of control. >> whoever handles public affairs over there needs to take james comey aside and walk through remainder of the time between now and election day. i've seen a few people defend him but for the most part, democrats continue to be aggressive. clearly it went farther. i believe in the clinton campaign says that their date doesn't show any damage to them from comey. and even the republicans played

down comey as a factor as opposed to the drum beat from the affordable care act as we've been discussing. there's new wikileaks disclosures related to potential coordination between justice department and the clinton world and the state department and clinton world. i think those things will get a fair amount of attention pushed by the republicans in the next couple days. >> i have to say, if the doj manages to get through the e-mails from weiner's computer before election day and they, whatever they show. i now feel like they almost have an obligation to report to the country on what they found or haven't found. this whole thing, they got us into this mess with this vaguory and inwend over. they need to resolve it before election day in terms of what they find. >> maybe they have something resolved enough to say. >> right. all right. donald trump has been spending an awful lot of time in traditionally democratic leaning states for a while. that didn't seem to bother the clinton campaign. in the final stretch, hillary clinton and her surrogates are

spending valuable time in states, not just toss-up states but also blue states that a week ago were considered safely, securely in her column. today, bernie sanders and chelsea clinton are in wisconsin. today, they're heading to detroit. vice president biden will be in madison. we talked yesterday about how the clinton campaign is going on the air. 24 hours later, what more do we know? >> well, i talked to the clinton campaign. they claim this is not panic or seeing the numbers crater. they believe it is prudent, given that they have a lot of surrogates and hillary clinton has a lot of money in her bank account to may defense in these states. the other thing is you have clinton supporters in places like michigan and wisconsin who are from the bed wetter category saying you need to fight to save this state or lose it. if they don't get what they want

they'll often leak to the press that hillary isn't paying enough attention to our state. >> you can't overstate how many of that kind of howling occurs in the last days before a presidential election where the local democratic parties and local donors in various places start calling up and saying, my god, my god. please send somebody. if you don't, it will be a disaster. >> so if you have the resources in terms of surrogates and the financial resources to be on the airing there is no good reason not to spend those resources. both financial and human to try to calm them down and play defense to the extent defense is required. >> if you look at the big five, you have to say the run has solidified in both iowa, here, and in ohio. that still leaves for three of the big three to try to win. the silver state as i like to call it. florida and north carolina. and then of course. he would still be five short as we talk about all the time. so i think clinton is trying to

hedge against a possible loss for trump for her somewhere that trump can make up with elsewhere. up next, more from here in waterloo, iowa after this. [burke] at farmers, we've seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. even a rodent ride-along. [dad] alright, buddy, don't forget anything! [kid] i won't, dad... [captain rod] happy tuesday morning! captain rod here. it's pretty hairy out on the interstate.traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. december 14th, 2015. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two

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welcome back. i am here in iowa where news broke overnight that two des moines area police officers were ambushed in their patrol cars, fatally shot. it is captivating the state. i talk to the governor earlier

about it today. police arrested a man, a 46-year-old earlier in connection with these shootings. he said that has been his focus. tim kaine, bill clinton, canceled the event that was supposed to be set. but bill clinton will speak in des moines. as a political reporter here in this eastern part of the state. you have a governor's senate race. the presidential. and this eastern district which is a democratic district, an incumbent republican. house member paul ryan today, talk about how that house race might impact the presidential in this part of the state. >> it is an interesting race. he has the benefit of being one of the few toss-up states or swing states leaning toward donald trump so he hasn't really

been acting like he's vulnerable. >> this is a first term republican congressman in a grik voted overwhelmingly republican twice. what has he said twice, particularly after the "access hollywood" tape? >> he has been very clear in his support. he doesn't go out of his way to mention donald trump but when asked, he will say specific reply iowa is still behind donald trump. >> the conventional wisdom in the public polling suggests that clinton -- trump has a lead here and has had a lead. how much has this part of the state been engaged with the presidential race? >> it's been interesting. we haven't seen much of the actual candidates. we've seen more of the surrogates. and this is the second time we're seeing bill clinton. so we're getting more of the surrogates rather than the actual candidates. >> okay. thank you very much. we'll though it back to you.

>> welcome back. we'll cut away to michael steele, the form he chair of the republican party. you're in washington, d.c. give may sense on the basis of what you know right now. we've been talking about the race. >> it is very fascinating. i don't know where the energy is coming from but donald trump seems to have garnered a great deal of energy. listening to kellyanne conway, you get the sense that they have their fingers on something. either they figured something out or something is moving in their direction. this may be on what has developed with hillary clinton but there is a different kind of energy out there. i was out there talking to folks. it was surprising to me the resignation that trump could win

this thing in the metro area. so a very different climate in the last 24 hours or so. you'll see it in various parts of the country. and it will be interesting to see how the campaign galvanizes that considering the lack of organization if we will say in the traditional sense they seem to have on the ground. >> do you think this is mostly driving from the shock wave from the comey letter or do you think this is more of a case of natural tightening, trump exercising some degree of discipline, finding his way to a different message? what are the factors that are core to the change you see? >> that's a good question. i thought it was the latter. that the trump campaign has settled down. it really drilled into donald trump. you have to say this and do this in the last week of the campaign. but then all of a sudden, the comey thing hit and it was a

very different feel. all of a sudden the people remember, oh, yeah. i didn't like that about hillary clinton. and i think that's moved into the space. how much of that space it will occupy in the next few days is really going to matter for the trump campaign. that means how they're able to capitalize on that. make that a much more integral part of the message, driving home the vote and getting the base excited. right now though. they seem to have a little more wind in their back than they had a week ago and it is kind of paying off in terms of what we're seeing in the polls. >> all right. i agree with you. it seems as though, you can feel it out here. i'm out here in utah. you can sort of feel that the wind and weather is changing. at the same time, real quick. we saw this report from florida yesterday which suggested that hillary clinton is, has banked a very large am of early vote.

it has been going on for a while. give me a sense of whether you think that early vote manneded up whatever tightening is taking place this week. >> i've went giving some thought to that. i'm not convinced that it will. i think there's a presumption that this early vote will be, it is banked for hillary. that this is all a hillary clinton vote. i just don't get sense. when you look at the african-american turnout, particularly in places like florida where it is down significant percentages, i think that this kind of energy that trump has right now will be too important. >> all right. you're going to stick with us. we'll be right back with a democrat to help out in this conversation. ah, beth. so the elevator is stuck again. with directv and at&t you can stream your favorite shows without using your data. that makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator with a guy with overactive sweat glands.

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>> i'm going to be honest with you right now. we tracked. we have early voting and all

kinds of metrics to see what's going on. and right now, the latino vote is up. the overall vote is up. but the african-american vote right now is not as solid as it needs to be. and i know that there are a lot of people in barber shops and beauty salons, you know, in the neighborhoods who are saying to themselves, well, you know, we would love michelle, it was exciting. and now we're not excited as much. do you know what? i need everybody to understand that everything we've done is dependent on me being able to pass the baton on to somebody who believes in the same things i believe in. >> that was president obama on tom joiner's radio show. we're back with the form he chairman of the republican national committee, michael steele, in washington, d.c., and now joining us from new york.

we have strategist, the former deputy campaign manager from martin o'malley's presidential run. let me go back to you real quick. we left in the middle of our conversation before. and one of the things you were talking about was the african-american vote. we were talking about the early sxroet the reasons to think maybe it is not what people presume which is that hillary clinton will do well because she has greater infrastructure, greater ground game, more get out the vote. talk in a little more detail about what we've seen in the last 24 hours in terms of the reporting on the african-american vote and as i say, give us your sense of that and then i'll ask the same question. >> sure. the bottom line with the african-american vote, she is not bill clinton and she's not barack obama. she's never had that kind of relationship with the black community. at least not in my neighborhood in prince george's county. you don't their same level of interest, if you will. you know, folks don't like donald trump. there is no secret about that.

but they're not enamored of hillary clinton as well. and the clinton campaign banked on that black vote being there because it was hillary clinton and democrats and all that. but black folks are looking at this race a little bit differently. and they don't have the same level of passion and concern. the numbers are off, significantly off if you consider the history in 2012, in 2008. and that's why you see hillary now scrambling in states where she really shouldn't be at this point, trying to get that vote out. and of course, the president on the tom joyner show reminding folks, i need pass the baton on to hillary. they're like, oh, okay. >> let me ask you that question. you look at the reporting that we've seen. the big piece in the "new york times" today. you see president obama out. you look at his schedule. you look where he's going. he seems to be, the clinton campaign seems to be tacitly admitting something a lot of people have been concerned about for a long time.

the thing that michael steele is pointing to is true. so do you think it is true that she has a real problem in these closing days with african-american votes and what if anything can she do about it? >> here's the thing. yes. there is an issue. we see it in the numbers. it is down in north carolina with the african-american vote and also in florida. look. we always knew she would get that percentage, right? she would get same percentage as obama did. the question was, would she get that raw vote total? that's what the early voting number are showing us. they have to do more work. there was a slate article that was out on monday which i think was actually, gave a really interesting insight. it talked about sanford, north carolina. a small town, 30% of the electorate is african-american. so the hillary campaign sent tim kaine there. because barack obama got 30%. that's the thing you're going to

see. and she is able to do that, right? yesterday she and her surrogates were in 14 media markets. so they are able to kind of spread about and go into those communities where, you know, yesterday you saw donald trump in wisconsin and pennsylvania with his, one of his important surrogates which is pence. but she is having her surrogates all over the place and they are able to do what tim kaine did on monday in that small town in sanford, north carolina. so i think that's really important. >> i guess the question is this. nobody doubts president obama in particular is a very powerful surrogate for hillary clinton. but again, the big question has been transferability. if at this point, six days out, if african-american voters aren't enthused about hillary clinton, particularly the context of her running against donald trump, what is barack obama going to say or do that will change night measurable

way? >> that's a great question. i think we saw in it 2010. does the the president going out there, speaking for elected officials who are running candidates, did that transfer? and it was that transfer didn't actually happen. but i think they have on continue putting their foot on the gas. they have the ground game. and i think that's what matters. trump has the momentum. they have ground game and they have, they're going to do souls to the polls. the barber shop and the beauty salon as the president was mentioning and they have to send out the president. he will be out there every day. michelle obama will be out there every day. and they have to hammer home what is at stake in this election. >> michael, go ahead. >> i was going to say, if could i add to that. the key thing that is really preventing the black community to really kind of jump on to hillary clinton's bandwagon. there are plemts resonate with particularly a lot of black

entrepreneurs. i've heard them and the small business owners talk about that. that has created the extra level of hesitancy to go all hog in on hillary clinton. i think if hillary can pivot that message that she has, make it more specific to the opportunity, that may squeeze out that extra vote. but donald trump's message to that point has some sticking value with small business owners in the black community. >> michael, you've seen kellyanne conway and others in the trump campaign saying we've expanded the map. we're playing in more states than we were in before. we're seeing donald trump to go more states than he was in before. hillary clinton is trying to play some defense in some deep blue states. do you think it is smart for the trump campaign to be spending time in places like wisconsin, michigan, new mexico, places that haven't gone republican in many cycles. does that make sense in or

should they be picking the specific states they must win on the narrow path that he has to 270 electoral votes and camping out there until election day? >> call me crazy. i think it is a good strategy. i think it is interesting. what you're seeing is to his offense, the clinton campaign is now defense. they're going back into states where they shouldn't have to go. in colorado and florida and places like that that they thought would be slam-dunks for them. that's what the numbers said at the end of summer. so yeah. i think this has worked out rather smartly for the trump campaign. but there is still the down side. the down side is because of a lack of ground game, at least from what we can see. the question remains, are you too trusting of that vote to show up on its own? and you may need to rethink, at least in that 72-hour window before tuesday, put some extra boots on the ground by the

campaign to make sure that vote turns out. >> let me ask you this question hillary clinton and her strategy and what she's doing. one of the other things we've noticed in addition to this surrogate activity, we see her doing something she didn't want to do. going very hard negative against donald trump. talking about his problems with women. she had wanted, her campaign said, to close out this campaign on an optimistic, positive, beautifying message. now she's back to the disqualification message that she was on for many, many months. tell me whether you think that is, is it necessary ask wise for her to be going back and mostly focusing on trump, rather than shifting to a different kind of stance on these closing days? >> well, as we saw what happened on friday night with the comey letter, it kind of changed the stakes a little bit. i think what she is doing,

especially now. election day is actually not on november 8. it is actually happening right now. millions and millions of people, over 20 million people are voting early. what she is doing is trying to remind people, right? hey, this is the character of the other side. just to remind you, this is what was going. on this is why donald trump is unfit to be president. so that's the message that she's going on. there are some positive messages as well if you watch her town hall, which i know you do, john. but she is really hammering home to the american who's are voting right now, about the character of donald trump. and also, one thing i wanted to say here. we saw 72 hours after the comey letter, she was able to raise online $3 million. so she has the money to go to colorado, to michigan, and not leave anything on the table. and i think that's key here as we know, this has been a volatile election cycle. so i think that's a very smart

thing to do. to make sure that you have the money. spend it. don't leave anything on the table. >> all right. a quick yes or no. answer this question. will there be another big october, even november surprise? do wave november surprise between now and next tuesday? >> you know, i want to say no. but this has been so unprecedented. i wouldn't be surprised if there was another surprise, a november surprise at this point. >> michael steele? yes or no? >> i think yes. i think there will be more to come. absolutely. yeah. >> thanks a lot for that, guys. i'm tired of these surprises. i was hoping you would both say. no since you both said yes, i guess i have to put on my seatbelt now and get ready. all right. thank you. we have a republican roundtable coming up next. if you're watching us in washington, d.c., you can join

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there was a time, a long, long time ago when our next guests were working toward a shared goal to make jeb bush the leader of the party. joining us now, dave joins us

from harford university. and on jeb bush's financial committee is now a member of the trump economic council. i'll start you both on the same question that i start everybody with at this point. i'm sorry. whether you like the horse race or not, we're less than a week out and it is a horse race moment. so where do you see the race? >> certainly this is a trend in donald trump's favor. i think the fundamentals are still pretty difficult. there's some states that he has never led in and may never lead if that he has to win at least one or two of here in the closing days in order to get himself to 270. it doesn't look likely. if i'm the clinton campaign, maybe thinking about going out and buying about 10,000 bed pans. there's certainly a lot of worries starting to build in the clinton campaign given where they're spending money and where

they're going. >> do you feel like the race is where? do you feel your guy has pulled level with her? or do you feel like it will play like the comeback kid? >> some of the polls say he's ahead, some say tied, some say he's behind. the momentum, in sports, politics, my guess is that he will bring more people to the game on november 8th than secretary clinton. and obviously, president obama is super worried about that. that's why he is doing these radio shows. so my guess is that this will be close. i think mr. trump will pull this off on november 8th and he'll be the 45th president of the u.s. and then we'll invite david and all those people who used to work with me. we'll have to govern and figure out a way to get along together.

either talking about, he's been in north carolina. talking about michigan. you're a man who is a date guy. as a man in the markets. when you look at those states and the history have those states, does it seem to you to make, to be in states that have not votes republican in a very long time? >> remember the two states like michigan and wisconsin. they have republican governors and they are certainly helping them there. i was in make dloem county. and there were guys like michael moore saying ladies and gentlemen, wake up. donald trump will be the next president. this is an unorthodox thing about mr. trump. it is probably not super dated but some of these internal polls are telling him, he is in striking distance in those

places. and it is sending a message that he is sending a message for all americans. that's why he has a message for the african-american community, the latino community. he wants to build a coalition that includes everybody. so the blue states strategy we'll turn it into a purple nation and we'll make this a presidency where all the american people. i like the strategy. i like the strategy and i think it will pan out as most of the things he's done with his intuition. sometimes it gives some pain. in this case, i'm going to inflict some on you. pretend you're donald trump's campaign manager or strategist. would you be having him spend his time the way he is or would you be pursuing a different path? >> i think they've got most of it right. i would spend all of my time in the next few days in wisconsin, new hampshire.

they have him going back to iowa. it looks like he has iowa put away. the coalition that has brought him where he is are noncollege educated white working class voters. you have a hot of them in wisconsin who weren't there in the 2012 election. they weren't there for mccain in 2008. i think he will have to take one of those two blue states. you can probably make an argument for virginia. i don't think there is a coalition for him to win. i think where he has to go is new hampshire, wisconsin, and that's about it. i don't see him winning in colorado. i don't see an opportunity for him to break through in michigan. i don't think there are enough working class voters to put him over the top. i'm probably spending my time in those two states. probably hit florida again to

make sure you have that as a state where you can lock it home. and he doesn't win this election unless he runs the table on all the states that have been swing states over the last six or eight weeks. and then he has to go take another state or two. i think the opportunities are wisconsin and new hampshire. >> let me say, the thing you said, of the traditional battleground states, that iowa is his strongest state. we see it in the polling all the time. you're an iowa guy. a des moines resident. just explain to me, i know part of is it demographics and it is an overwhelmingly white state. it was in 2012 and 200 wheat barack obama won it. so what has changed that makes iowa so much more resentmentive to trump than it was to john mccain? >> i think the wrong track number is driving a lot of this. there is a lot more frustration among voters.

you saw it in the off years of '10 and '14. you had a much higher turnout among disaffected angry voters upset at washington. trump seems to have really struck a chord with these voters and then you have on the other side, the clinton campaign is not an inspiring campaign. she doesn't have a good message for voters like that. i think obama was new and fresh and hopeful. the economy seems to be improving at a slow rate. there's no credit being given to washington or to the obama campaign necessarily. so hillary clinton has failed on inspire a coalition of new voters that obama inspired in 2008 and 2012 with just incredibly high turnout in democratic precincts, even in whiter states like iowa and ohio. it is not happening.

that's where the opportunity is for donald trump. >> all right. stay with us. we'll continue this conversation in all its glory after these words from our sponsors. fresher. more flavorful. delicious. only one egg with better nutrition- like more vitamins d, e, and omega 3s. and 25% less saturated fat. only one egg good enough for my family. because why have ordinary when you can have the best. eggland's best. the only egg that gives you so much more: better taste. better nutrition. better eggs.

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we're back with the author of the book, hopping over the rabbit hole. a fabulous book. everyone should buy it. i want to ask you one question. one of my hobby horses. i'll talk about donald trump's taxes. we saw "the new york times." another pretty brutal story that suggested that trump has manipulated tax rules, not manipulated the rules but played by the rules in a way to not pay taxes for many, many years. we saw it earlier. given that donald trump has refused in contravention of all norms to release his taxes. and we've seen these stories. how can we come to any other conclusion but that he has not paid taxes for decades?

>> well, i think that's unfair. he's acknowledged that he has paid millions and millions in taxes. i think the big issue for mr. trump, because it is such a complex tax form. you've seen the facebook and twitter page where he has seven feet of tax payments that he is going through. he doesn't feel as a businessman. you have to remember he's not a politician for the last 30 speier have these more simplified tax returns. so what i would say to you, he's done everything ethically and legally. the judge, there's a famous case that says you can do everything you can within legal limits to avoid paying zpaxs perhaps mr. trump has done that. but if there were something wrong there, the irs would have let us know by now. >> he has basically in those debates, he sort of conceded that in fact he really hasn't paid federal taxes for a long time. let me ask you that question. the same basic question. is there any reason why i should

conclude other than he hasn't paid taxes on the basis of his behavior? >> i don't think there is any reason to conclude what we already know. he took almost a billion-dollar loss which would have allowed him to go two years into the past and 16 years into the future and write those losses off against in eye income. my guess is he probably hasn't paid any taxes in that long and that's why he's not releasing them he was doesn't want people to know that he hasn't paid taxes. >> i have to cut you off. thank you both for being on the show. and we'll be right back. crohn's disease. i didn't think there was anything else to talk about. but then i realized there was. so, i finally broke the silence with my doctor about what i was experiencing. he said humira is for people like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. and many achieved remission.

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>> thanks for watching and sayonara. "hardball" with chris matthews is next. close but no cigar. let's play "hardball." i'm chris matthews. six days from now at 7:00 p.m. eastern, the first state polls will be closing. georgia, kentucky, south carolina, vermont and virginia. today donald trump, hillary clinton and their surrogates jetted out across the country to deliver their closing arguments. >> in florida, trump called hillary crooked is that a liar.