and who could easily insult a foreign leader, or maybe, heaven forbid, start a real war rather than just a twitter war. >> hillary clinton tonight at the end of a long day at the other side of the country. her theme all day has been "imagine." not the john lennon version, but imagine donald trump being sworn in on inauguration day, imagine him in the oval office as you hear him conducting warfare. a late campaign stop for hillary clinton in a state they would like to turn blue. that's "the 11th hour." "hardball with chris matthews" begins now. close but no cigar. let's play "hardball." i'm chris matthews.

six days from now at 7:00 p.m. eastern, the first state polls will be closing. in georgia, indiana, kentucky, south carolina, vermont and virginia. today donald trump, hillary clinton and their surrogates jetted out across the country to deliver their closing arguments. in florida, trump called hillary crooked and unstable. >> she is a crooked one. crooked hillary clinton. that term has really stuck. has anyone seen crooked hillary clinton today? that will be a great term for a president, right? she has bad judgment, personally i think she is a very unstable person. if you want to really know the truth. if you've watched her last few speeches over the last few days, she has become totally unhinged. hillary clinton is the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency. she shouldn't be allowed to run for the presidency. that's why i say the system is rigged. she shouldn't be allowed to run. did you see her at the end of the debates? folks, she was exhausted.

do you know what she did? she immediately went home and went to sleep. >> he has his golden oldies out there again. he's been saying that stuff for a long time. he spent part of his speech attacking the media. here's trump against us. >> another important issue for americans is integrity in journalism. these people are among the most dishonest people i've ever met. there has never been anywhere near the media dishonesty like we've seen in this election. >> hillary clinton also going a bit low again, has called trump dangerous and a bully. here she is in las vegas moments ago. >> imagine with me what it would be like to have donald trump sitting in the oval office come next january. someone who demeans women, mocks the disabled, insults latinos and african-americans, what

would it be like to have that person in the most powerful office in the world? >> with six days to go, where do things stand right now? a republican strategist and senior adviser to rick santorum's campaign. and eugene is an msnbc political analyst. we separate journalists from people who are political and we make them clear here and we will continue. i'm quite proud of that. let's talk about this thing. we all know that there are voters who vote like my parents, like it is going to church. they don't ever not vote. they're not the ones, some people vote most of the time, go to church most of the time. what depends on it? >> yes. >> what depends on turnout? >> first of all, i am not one of the smart people. i'm a strategist.

i look at this completely differently. i do think people have to be careful this year. the turnout is a little different. trump does not have an organization to turn people out. he has turned people out to come out and read into it. second of all, none of us thought we would be here now. there is one thing if i was hillary -- >> in other words, an electoral college race. >> absolutely. if i were hillary clinton's campaign, the one thing that would keep me sleepless at night is all along she was getting votes of people who still didn't like her because they didn't see donald trump as a viable alternative. now as the polls close, huh, maybe it is all right to vote for donald trump. >> do you see that the numbers themselves justify it? he must be okay. it is the 47% for this guy. >> i think we see a lower early

voting among african-americans in some states and we see the enthusiasm gap. we see women also. >> look, i know trump voters. i know trump voters and they would like to vote ten times for trump and some would like to vote half a vote for hillary. there is a fanatacism for hillary. >> i think the problem he faces is the math is still very bad. the problem for her is that we're talking about states -- >> are you worried about that? >> i'm not saying that. >> you're grimacing. i don't see these states falling. i don't see michigan falling, i don't see pennsylvania falling. i think those are stronger states. they're already counting on a lower african-american vote as

2012. if it was as high, we would be talking landslide. >> we have hispanic voters coming out like the cavalry. >> we have hispanic voters coming out in a higher number. whose hand would you rather play? i would rather play that. >> anybody here think it is up in the air? >> i absolutely do. i think pennsylvania and north carolina are the key to this. >> i agree. so if we watch -- well, i don't think we'll watch until 12:00. apparently north carolina didn't come in until almost 11:00. we'll to have wait a while. which is good. we have a slew of new polls. here they are. donald trump leads by 5 points. he seems to be building a strong argument in ohio.

he is ahead by 5 in arizona. he is up by 6 in nevada. and he has a 9-point lead in georgia which is now safely republican again. all according to the emerson college poll. hillary clinton is up by 2 points in florida. she is up 3 points in colorado. 3 in north carolina. she is ahead by 4 points in pennsylvania. that's down according to two different polls. and she leads by 6 points. she leads by six points in wisconsin. that's according to a poll which is considered a gold standard in that state. so it seems to me that it comes to the same thing that most of us have been watching. it is a boring word but it's real. north carolina for whatever reason doesn't like trump. young people, college educated people. an advanced university system there. people are educated. women, african-americans. that state has just turned against them. pennsylvania has never turned

toward them. >> he has no pathway there without north carolina, just like he has no pathway without florida. the issue for him as well that we have to take into consideration, i don't think anyone who went through breaks, are we really underpolling? we always think we underpoll trump. are we underpolling disenfranchisement? >> but there is no -- >> no new registration of white -- >> we haven't seen any signs of this hidden trump vote here will suddenly appear today. i would argue it is just as likely that there would be a hidden hillary clinton voter. after all, she supposedly is healthy and compromised. it is not ethical to say you're for hillary clinton either. one can imagine voters going into the voting booth and

saying, actually, i don't think this guy trump -- just think back to 2012. the last week before the election, there were national polls that had mitt romney a little bit ahead. in pennsylvania, president obama was up by four. he ended up winning it, i think, by six. this doesn't look that weird for the democrats. >> let me ask you a basic question. going through my head like i've been doing this. thinking back 20, 30 elections. it seems when there's a close election, nixon, kennedy, humphrey, nixon, carter, ford. the last decision making of the weekend tends to go back toward the incumbent. a safer, you tend to go, oh! it went toward gore, i think. what do you think? is the tendency of that last block to go to the safer hillary or the wilder trump? >> i would hesitate to predict that this year because i could see last-minute voters saying, what the hell?

>> shoot the moon. >> however, i don't think there are last-minute deciders. >> do they vote? >> i think the comey letter. even if it doesn't change any votes, the entire narrative has shifted. we would be talking about how big the landslide is, how big mart engine. >> the last-minute deciders, the once who don't read the paper every day -- someone said when you absolutely have to make a decision, that forces a new reality. you're going to make a decision because you have to, and you've never done it before. how will they break, safe or wild? >> i think last time whether you liked president obama or not, aid vision and a message, and you could say, i like what he's saying. clinton never had a positive message, it was just donald trump is a risk. what's happening in these closing days, people think it's really ugly, and if it's really

ugly, i might as well go with the guy who will take a shot. >> do you think it works? go ahead. investigate hillary. she'll probably be impeached and that depresses the liberal voter. >> we'll see, negative campaigning historically does depress turnout. so if you're just dour and angry all the time, that tends to make people not eager. you say it is rigged. >> i know someone who is not dour. president obama. he is the happiest campaigner since hubert humphrey. he said the fate of the world is rest og this election. he said to chapel hill the election depends on the universe, he said, the universe depends on how north carolina votes. >> all the progress we've made over the last eight years, all

the progress we hope to make over the next eight years, all of that goes out the window if we don't win this election. i hate to put pressure on you but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders. the fate of the world is teetering and you, north carolina, are going to have to make sure that we push it in the right direction. >> thank you, john brabender, megan murphy. we have a state where hillary clinton is showing strength and where donald trump is looking to make inroads. this is the place for news.

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>> we cannot take anything, anybody, anywhere for granted. are you ready to work hard and win this election? >> that was donald trump and hillary clinton motivating their supporters to get to the polls on election day. when it comes to each candidate on tuesday, looking at the state electoral map itself could come as a reality check. trump needs more than he's got and clinton's lead is more fragile than it looks. the battleground map still shows clinton with 276 electoral votes, but it's faded over the last week. while the states of georgia and iowa, which had been competitive for clinton, are both leaning toward trump. if the averages meet in all three polls, hillary clinton would still be ahead. trump would still need to pry a state away from clinton to win.

ed rendell, nbc analyst. i'm stymied by this map. how do you come to that conclusion, for example, that north carolina should belong in the republican column? >> north carolina, actually, this map is based -- we have a map that includes toss-up states and we have what we call a no toss-up. >> how do you force a decision? >> whoever is ahead in the polls. in florida, trump is ahead by less than one percentage point. north carolina is actually a dead tie. so we fall back to the two-way race where trump has a two-point lead in north carolina, so he's got that lead for now. but one point for hillary clinton could shift her back in that column.

>> how do you account for people voting for gary johnson or jill stein? >> we're not including them in this. >> they don't ordinarily vote republican as an alternative route to get around pennsylvania where maybe he's given up. i can't tell. >> i don't think they gave it up in pennsylvania. they're going to be here and they're pumping ads on tv, but i think pennsylvania is a tough stretch for them, but it's not, by any means, out of the question. if our people think pennsylvania is a lock and don't vote, that's what i mean by turnout. they can win. but if our people vote, we will win pennsylvania. wisconsin, i thought the best news for hillary today was the marquette poll showed almost no movement from the last week when she was seven points ahead. that's great news. i think michigan, the eye of the american road, it's not huge, but it's going to be 95-5 for hillary.

i think michigan will be secure. but i tell you what, chris, before i brush my teeth, i looked at the politics and so i have a great respect for what they do. they're wrong on florida. the early voting that msnbc had with the william & mary study. if hillary wins florida, she can lose wisconsin and michigan and still win. >> john braybenner, he knows his stuff. he said the hillary people have a much better ground game, better organization. trump has none, really, but they can force their voters out early. >> florida is actually where we have a decent amount running.

i think five of them have hillary clinton ahead but only by a point or two, and a couple of polls have donald trump up by four points. so he's actually leaning in the average. so we got a decent amount of data there. look, again, it's less than 1.4%, so that basically was a, sufficient information for a voter to decide what it means. my brother in pennsylvania, they're all gidy about this. do you sense, governor, that this will get republican excitement that they can actually change where they were last week. >> u, i think we're repeating so voters.

you're seeing, i think, the trump movement. but he should have said in the letter, chris, no infant should be. no one should take any inference from this letter.

diary wednesday, november 2nd, 2016. six days away and i find it appalling how close this

election is. the people that think they have it all together and think the regular people out there should lead the show, democrats and republicans, one party replacing another in their revolving door of esteemed politics. if this election is close, if donald trump carries florida and north carolina, if he is able to challenge hillary clinton's resume is something for the record books. the people of this country will have spoken so loudly that even a candidate such as trump gets hoisted all the way to the finish line. if trump can get enough votes, say 46%, it means he never had

i believe half the people in this country, maybe more, have had it with this establishment elite politics. the best and brightest took us into vietnam, went to libya and syria and desert war. they're tired of watching wastelands of this country where manufacturing was king. they established an honest immigration policy all americans were excited to see work. they dumped everything on the working people, the ill-conceived wars, an i am flation flow that affects where equal people live that doesn't have the main 40. the ruling class needs to note that 40. and for a leader, even stronger. that's "hardball? "for now.

tonight on "all in" -- >> we're almost at the end. >> six days out, a campaign frenzy. >> but we're really at the end of the beginning, if you think about it. >> tonight inside the new blue state polling that's looking pretty good for democrats. >> the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders. >> as the president drills home the stakes and takes on his own fbi. >> we don't operate on innuendo. >> then the latest on what appears to be a politically motivated church burning in mississippi. why white nationalalists are declaring victory even if donald trump loses and new pictures of donald trump with a mobster he said he didn't know. when "all in" starts right now. >> good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes with just six days now until election day, hillary clinton continues to lead in the latest polls, but the race i