today. hillary clinton is making a pair of stops in north carolina, including an appearance with bernie sanders and pharrell williams in raleigh. tim kaine is in arizona. president obama has two stops in florida. former president bill clinton is in nevada. >> >> that's a wrap for us on this thursday. "morning joe" starts right now. >> this is going to be a tough play. bryant. the cubs win the world series! bryant makes the play. it's over. the cubs have won it all. 8-7 in ten! >> good morning. it's thursday, november 3rd. and what a game it was last night, joe. >> what a game indeed. i tell you what, willie geist, this really was one for the ages. you obviously had a team trying to win for the first time in 108

years. and the way they went about it, unbelievable. they were pushed all the way back to a 3-1 deficit. they come back. they're ahead. indians keep fighting back. then they go to extra innings in game seven. rain delay. this game had everything. what a way for them to win. >> it was incredible. the curse is over. the thing that has defined the chicago cubs in some ways that side of chicago, the city, for 108 years, is over now. chicago cubs are world series champions. sounds crazy to say that. i was born in evanston, illinois. all of my family is from chicago. i was thinking about my grandfather and uncles and all those that walked in and out of wrigley field over the last 108 years only to have a losing season. let's check out highlights in case you didn't stay up late to watch it. dexter fowler led off the game with a solo shot out in center field to get scoring started for

the cubs. indians answer in the third with an rbi single from carlos santana. cubs bats heat up in the next inning. two runs off a russell sac fly and rbi double and momentum continues in the fifth. cubs piling on. solo hole run from javier baez. chicago there up 5-1 and feeling good. but in the bottom of the inning, indians remind everyone there's a lot of baseball to be played. jon lester. a relief appearance. his first in nine years. base runner on first. infield single. david ross throwing error moves the runner to scoring position. a wild pitch from lester clears the bases. ba makes it a two-run game. david ross making up for his throwing error. the 39 year old hits a solo home

run in the sixth. 6-3 cubs in that point. that last to bottom of the eighth. chapman comes in. he's been pitching a lot of innings including the previous night. he relieves lester. gives up an rbi double. indians close the gap. two outs. runner on second. eighth inning. davis of the indians steps to the plate. at the wall. it's gone. tie game! chapman in disbelief as davis ties the game in the eighth inning. 6-6 is the score. just clearing the wall in left field. so both teams blanked in the ninth inning. then as joe pointed out, agonizing 17-minute rain delay. one of these teams has to wait longer for their first title until forever. let's go to top of the tenth

after the delay. bryan shaw on the mound for cleveland. intentionally walks rizzo to get to ben zobrist. go-ahead run scores for chicago. another intentional walk. a run scoring single to right that pads the cubs lead. cleveland did make it interesting. chicago, here's the last out. chris bryant with a smile on his face as that ball rolled up. anthony rizzo putting that historic ball in his back pocket. cubs win. cubs win 8-7. zobrist is mvp for that go-ahead double in the tenth. cubs are named world series champions. let's say it again. world series champions chicago cubs first time since 1908. >> i've been watching baseball for a long time. hard to think of a more dramatic conclusion to a world series go into extra innings.

game seven. down 3-1. cleveland has had two seven game championship series this year. both of them. one team was down 3-1 and came back and won it. unfortunately for cleveland last night, they were on the wrong side of that equation. i really didn't think the game should have been that close. you had joe maddon taking out hendricks when he was pitching great game. he pulls hendricks who has t hot hand. ball is still moving around. it just set off a series of events that almost cost the cubs another shot at a world series. >> joe maddon is a great manager. it felt a lot like overmanaging at times last night. hendricks was dealing. he was pitching great. he goes to lester. that happens in game seven. you feel like there's nothing left to lose. you pull everyone out of your bull pen. hendricks was pitching well. a lot of people wonder why he

made that move and then to bring in chapman to threw 100 pitches over the last three games and came into a position where he didn't have his best stuff. his arm was weak. john smoltz, play by play guy, said he didn't have his stuff. nice to see chapman not end up being the go and get off the hook as cubs win the world series. i love this shot. last out of the game. the slow mo of chris bryant as the ball rolls to him. a smile on his face. wasn't an easy play. he's smiling as he throws the ball. that says it right there for the chicago cubs. >> unbelievable. a nice break from what we've been following for the past year or so. a nice break. >> something that hasn't happened since 1908 so we brought in meachem. as well as nicholas confessore.

>> we have important points. >> historical parallels. please don't. in washington, senior political editor and white house correspondent for "the huffington post" sam stein. everyone looks tired this morning with good reason. that's a good break. new polling is testing the ground for donald trump's late push into democratic territory trying to break through hillary clinton's electoral college advantage. a brand new poll from wbur in new hampshire shows trump inching ahead 40% to clinton's 39%. the race statistically tied. libertarian gary johnson at 10%. there may be opportunity for trump in pennsylvania with polls after the letter on potential new e-mails. in a quinnipiac poll, clinton's lead is five points. four points in the cnn/orc poll and new monmouth poll and just

two points within a margin of error of the last two. in wisconsin, a marquette university poll shows a steady race there. even in the aftermath of the fbi revelations. clinton leads by six. 46% to trump's 40%. her lead was seven points earlier in the month. in michigan, the fox 2 detroit automated tracking poll found the race tightening on tuesday night. 47% for clinton and 44% for trump. a stunning new poll of colorado from university of denver has the race tied. it was conducted saturday through monday. clinton and trump are each at 39 in colorado. so, joe, some of this is natural, right? at the final hours. >> no. these polls aren't -- i don't think these polls are natural. i thought things were going to tighten up a good bit. i think pennsylvania is out of range. it's four points. four points. five points.

one was two-point race. that still seems like a four-point race. colorado though being tied, i know the trump campaign we've talked about it for some time have looked at colorado as a possible win. i thought they were crazy. most people did as well. the demographics of that state just don't seem to lend themselves to a donald trump victory for a lot of reasons. but they've been close. clinton was up three last week in a colorado poll. this one there's a tie. i saw another colorado poll that had clinton ahead. wisconsin plus six. feingold had a double digit lead only up one in that poll and trump ahead in new hampshire. this has been coming for some time. i personally -- i think trump has to win new hampshire. that's a state he has to win. i said it for two weeks now. he needs to put new hampshire in

his column if he wants to get to 270. this poll certainly suggests -- as polls showed last week, he's inching in that direction. it seems like a state that is a better fit for him than some that trump's team are suggesting he can win. >> let's look at battleground states which show donald trump leading or within striking distance of hillary clinton in the final stretch. in north carolina, the quinnipiac poll puts clinton three points ahead of trump. 47% to 44% in the margin of error. trump has regained his lead in ohio where he and clinton were tied three weeks ago. trump now at 46%. clinton dropping four points to 41%. trump also had a five-point advantage in arizona according to cnn/orc. 49% to 44%. and the same poll shows trump ahead by six points in nevada. 49% to clinton's 43% though top

political journalist cautions that the poll shows trump leading in clark county which obama won by 15 points in 2012. meanwhile, two of the new polls in florida show a dead heat. clinton up by two points. 49% to trump's 47% in the cnn poll. and clinton's lead tightening to just a one-point advantage in the new quinnipiac poll 46% to 45%. campaigning through the sunshine state yesterday, trump urged his supporters to work harder and reminded himself to maintain his own composure. >> the polls have come up. we're way up in florida. i shouldn't say that because i want you to go vote. okay. ready. we're going to pretend we're down. we're down. pretend, right. we'll pretend we're down. no. we got to win. we got to win big. we got to beat her. a lot of very, very big poll numbers coming down over the last few days. you've seen it. we are going to win the white

house. we're going to win it. it's feeling like it already, isn't it? we've got to be nice and cool. nice and cool. right. stay on point, donald. stay on point. no side tracks, donald. nice and easy. because i've been watching hillary the last few days. she's totally unhinged. we don't want any of that. >> it's like he's got no filter. >> what do you mean it's like he's got no filter? we've known that for some time. >> yeah. >> except this time he's actually -- the instruction going to his head come out of his mouth about being disciplined. that's some interesting stuff. john meachem, i'm looking at all these numbers. there are a lot of things that are fascinating. michigan yesterday i said i saw absolutely no evidence that

trump had any shot in michigan. well, a poll comes out shows him basically within the margin of error. that's still sort of a reach. obviously if he got either one of those states, it blows up the entire electoral map and makes his path to 270 a lot easier. colorado being tied another stunner here. i'm bringing up these states because i'm surprised but the one state i keep looking at and i go to you because you know it so well, you're a neighbor of it. north carolina. this is a state -- this is what i saw in ohio four years ago when everybody was saying mitt romney was winning and mitt romney was doing well and i kept looking at ohio, and obama's lead was a stubborn four-point lead. three points. five points. four points. four points. at some point i said wait a second, if he can't move that number down, romney can't win. here i'm looking at north carolina. it has stubbornly remained in

the clinton column. i think if you add all of these numbers up that we had from the polls yesterday, trump said about 255. he's still 15 points short. those 15 electoral votes, they come from north carolina. explain the complexity of north carolina and why this state deep in the heart of dixie still is stubbornly staying in clinton's column. >> it's a microcosm of the election. intense blue dots around the research triangle around chapel hill where university of north carolina is and you have very strong pockets of rural white formerly solidly democratic voters two generations ago who have been solidly republican really since ronald reagan. so you have -- to me, if he wins north carolina, i think the whole map is blown up. i suspect, by the way, that there are at least two or three

statewide surprises here that is alluding the polling. i think it's going to be a very long and interesting night on tuesday because this is -- this is true in north carolina as well. i started thinking of this as the what the hell have you got to lose election, which is what trump said of course to african-american voters. really, that's the message that's resonating. that helps explain to some extent the tightening here. if this were a referendum on donald trump, it would largely be over. it has remained a referendum not just on secretary clinton but on the state of the country as it is today and the confidence of the people and elites, the confidence of the rural north carolina voters, people in the blue dots, to fix their problems. and the rural voters do not believe -- do not have that confidence. >> if you talk to the clinton campaign, they feel good about north carolina. donald trump feels like he might be able to pick off one of those

upper midwest states. wisconsin or michigan. but now to hedge their bets, the clinton campaign is going hard into arizona. a place that democratic campaigns don't typically go hard right at the very end. you had hillary clinton there yesterday with a huge crowd. you have tim kaine going there. time and resources in places where you wouldn't see a democratic presidential candidate pouring time and resources this late. >> upside versus downside. trump has upside in upper midwest states where he's underperforming, where he has pockets of working class voters who voted for obama and the clinton campaign is looking at pockets of hispanic voters who are for romney. upside/downside. she's trying to flip some of those states. he has to go into michigan and wisconsin and he can't win without them. if show holds on in the eastern seaboard, lock those two states down, florida and classic swing states are not the most

important anymore. >> she can lose those and still win. >> sam stein, we want to ask you. we have so many polls out this morning that we're sorting through. i want to focus on colorado. do you really think that race is tied there? it's been tightening up. again, talk about the demographics in colorado and why that would -- i mean, a trump win in colorado would shake things up as much as a clinton win in, say, arizona or north carolina. what's going on in colorado? >> i always caution against taking one poll and assuming trend lines. but it is tightening. you can see tightening in various states. with colorado, that's a really difficult state for donald trump to flip. in part because there's an hispanic population but also because there's a large college educated white population and on top of that they've gone to mail-in balloting which will

increase voter turnout which generally is good for democrats. you can see in some of the early numbers of return ballots that democrats have a small persistent lead, i don't know what numbers are today, which is historically good because they don't usually have the lead in the state prior to election day. so colorado is a really tough one. nick's basically right, which is that if trump is going to get a state from clinton, it's most likely to be in the upper midwest, the rust belt. places like michigan or wisconsin. i think the wisconsin marquette poll yesterday was deflating for them in that sense. if you talk to people in the clinton camp orbit, this whole debate over arizona, it's an interesting one. some people actually view arizona as closer than iowa which gives you a sense of how the race is shaping up which is that states with hispanic population are going for her and states with a working class white population are trending towards him.

so that's how i generally see this playing out. >> and, you know, mika, look at these polls and see where we are. how much this race is in flux right now. it's within the margin of error and tied in florida. it's tied in colorado. it's tied in michigan. this one poll it's tied in new hampshire. and then you have trump comfortably ahead in ohio, arizona, and nevada. and then clinton ahead out of the margin of error slightly in pennsylvania and more comfortably ahead in wisconsin. what's interesting is that we've all sort of mocked and ridiculed the trump campaign, their get out the vote operation, their data campaign, they have been saying for weeks look at colorado. you say what about wisconsin? we're not as comfortable with wisconsin. we're really seeing things in colorado that are interesting.

it doesn't make sense. i only bring this up to say i've got a feeling that josh green is onto something in his bloomberg article. they have dug in a lot deeper on numbers and almost sort of played possum pretending their asleep at the wheel when, in fact, they've called colorado. i find it hard to believe that state is tied. we have a couple polls in the row that show is closer than anyone would have guessed. >> just a quick thing, remember also in the republican primaries, the number of trump voters that showed up that were not accounted for is amazing. >> it's on. still ahead on -- >> i want -- that is really important too. what i said a week ago if this was a three or four-point race nationally and some polls show it that way, the hidden trump vote doesn't matter. if we go into election day tied or clinton up a half a point or

a point, watch out. then i do think you have the hidden voter effect. i think it will as ed rendell says, it will be the philly effect. >> a live interview with donald trump's campaign manager kellyanne conway on set and we're on the ground in four key swing states. katy tur in florida, charlie sykes joins us from wisconsin. jon ralston is in vegas and robert costa covering the race in pennsylvania and on wednesday, a special edition of "morning joe" lined up for the morning after the election. we will be live from historic studio 8h at 30 rock for complete coverage of the 2016 results. but first, let's bring in a man who predicted last night's rain delay. >> i was off by 20 minutes.

>> painful. >> it was painful. thankfully it was only 17 minutes. it could have been worse. imagine if it would have been an hour or two and many wouldn't see the end. now only five days away. a good feel of what the weather is going to be like. sometimes we deal with snow. sometimes we deal with ice. this looks about as perfect as it could be for a lot of the swing states look great. everywhere looks great. the northeast, temperatures 50s and 60s. the south is still going to be very warm in the 70s. we'll have rain to deal with on election day. looks like scattered storms in louisiana and texas. that's notoing to stop anyone from heading to the polls and everywhere in the west looks good. no cold weather to be found on the map. that weather pattern we're in now continues into election day. the only problem weather this morning this is rain that delayed the game last night briefly. it's now in new york state. bring the umbrella with you in new england. cloudy. dreary day. we'll watch that rain moving right through upstate new york, vermont, new hampshire and maine as we go throughout the day. much of the country doesn't feel like we're in november.

you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. hillary clinton: i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. vo: in times of crisis america depends on steady leadership. donald trump: "knock the crap out of them, would you? seriously..."vo: clear thinking... donald trump: "i know more about isis than the generals do, believe me." vo: and calm judgment. donald trump: "and you can tell them to go fu_k themselves." vo: because all it takes is one wrong move. donald trump audio only: "i would bomb the sh_t out of them." vo: just one. my lineage was the vecchios and zuccolis. through ancestry, through dna i found out that i was only 16% italian. he was 34% eastern european.

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>> grandpop worked in a silk mill. sorry. i'm doing this because maybe when i need a job ray band may have me as a sponsor. i've been wearing these since i was 15 years old. ladies and gentlemen, donald trump, my lord. you know, this guy should see somebody serious. his fixation on women's bodies is, like -- >> you know, look, i am obviously a partisan democratic. i understand that. we're not democrats or republicans first. we're americans first. this is somebody who is uniquely

unqualified. i ran against john mccain. i ran against mitt romney. i thought i would be a better president but i never thought that the republic was at risk if they were elected. >> joe biden and president obama out on the trail for hillary clinton yesterday in swing states. having fun at donald trump's expense. still ahead, the must read opinion pages. this is the reason meachem is down. joe's band has a show. stop by at 8:00. that's when it starts. you'll be there, right? >> i'll read the constitution. >> it's happening. we're back in just a moment. you may be muddling through allergies. try zyrtec® for powerful allergy relief. and zyrtec® is different than claritin®.

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of americans whose life expectancy is going down and your income has gone down and you feel rage because you get up every morning and you look in the mirror and you realize you cannot do anything to make tomorrow better than today, it makes you crazy. i get that. hillary says i understand your anger but answers are better than anger. and he says, oh, no they're not. i need you to be really mad here. otherwise you might start thinking, and i would be in trouble. >> that was bill clinton on the trail yesterday in iowa. what did you think, joe? >> i can't believe how arrogant that approach was. they are so off key. they're getting more concerned. bill clinton saying donald trump's problem is that millions and millions of voters may start thinking, and he's a guy from the south who understands what

make -- talks about they're angry -- >> they're not angry at all these people. they're angry at people like bill clinton and people like hillary clinton. they're angry at people like george w. bush. they're angry at people like you and me. they're angry at the people they see as the establishment that don't understand their lives, don't understand what they have to do and their struggles day in and day out, and they don't think for good reason that washington is connected to them. and that's exactly what's going on out there. quite frankly for a guy like bill clinton who has been as good on the stump and been as connected to white working class voters as he has over the past half century to say, donald trump is in trouble. if these people start thinking suggests that millions and millions of people out there are just too stupid to figure out

what's in their best interest and therein lies the same sort of arrogance that made jimmy carter's white house cheer when roeagan won the republican nomination. i'm not comparing trump to ronald reagan. i'm comparing one set of airi arrogant elites with another set of arrogant elites and we're all in that box. they don't trust any of us. >> i hear you on that. so here's david's take on voting for clinton. to vote for trump as a protest against clinton's faults would be like amputating a leg because of a sliver in the toe. on almost every domestic issue i stand on one side and she stands on the other. she's a patriot. she'll uphold the sovereignty and independence of the united states. he'll defend allies and execute the laws with reasonable impartiality. she may bend some rules for her

own and supporters advantage. she will not outrightly legality all together. she can govern herself. i will vote for the candidate that offends by opinions. there will be other elections. my party will recover. your hand may hesitate to put a mark beside the name, hillary clinton. you're not doing it for her. the vote you cast is for the republic and the constitution. john meachem, is it that base at that point? >> david frum is the man who was principle architect of the speech that included the phrase axis of evil in the george w. bush administration. he wrote an important book in the '90s called "dead right" which makes arguments that joe has also made about how conservatives lost their way by becoming more establishment and becoming more big government

orientated. that's an establishment republican view right now. it's why the bush family is not with trump. it's why a lot of moderate republicans, i think wish that bill weld were at the top of the libertarian ticket because they might be able to vote there. what frum is trying to do is normalize something that for republicans is difficult. >> and therein lies the dilemma for a lot of americans. they looked at both sides. they're not in love with hillary clinton. they're not in love with donald trump. but they are putting country as david frum put it there over party. in a typical side by side if you didn't love either, you might vote for the republican to support the party and the ticket but in this case a lot of conservatives are saying to themselves -- not just people never trump from the beginning. people are looking at it saying we can get through a hillary clinton presidency. we can work with hillary clinton. it wouldn't be my first choice. this is where we are. >> all right. still ahead on "morning joe" --

>> mr. obama hammered his opponent as a candidate who can't be trusted. >> governor romney has been using all his talents as a salesmen to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly. >> charging into virginia, mitt romney who softened his critique of the president in the wake of sandy today refocused squarely on his rival. >> if the president were to be re-elected, you'll see high levels of unemployment continue. >> that was four years ago on the thursday before the election. how do the dynamics of 2012 compare with what's playing out today? romney's former chief strategist stuart stevens joins the conversation. first, we head to battleground pennsyania and robert costa. "morning joe" is coming back in just a moment. when you're closeo the people you love, does psoriasis ever get in the way of a touching moment? if you have moderate to severe psoriasis, you can embrace

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we are following breaking news from london. a blow to the british government

after the high court there ruled that the british exit must be triggered by parliament and not by prime minister theresa may. >> obviously let's bring in ali velshi right now. it's a blow to those that want to get out of the eu because theresa may a tough new prime minister has promised even though she had reservations at the beginning, promised that she was going to followthrough on the voter's will. this changes everything and what does it mean for the markets? >> the outgoing prime minister david cameron was not really in support of this. he was in the remain camp. theresa may came in knowing that her job was to usher the uk out of brexit. she said she would do that. in order to do that you have to trigger article 50 and there's two years of negotiations. now what happened is uk court said she can't do it. the government can't do it. parliament has to vote to get out of brexit and as a result this now gets thrown up in the air as you said.

it has to go to the supreme court in a month. the supreme court could uphold this ruling or parliament could vote on it. here's the issue. if parliament has to vote, then the brexit battle happens all over again. there's going to be a lot of pressure on these parliamentarians to have buyer's remorse and vote against it. as a result, the pound is way up this morning. it spiked on this news. i just saw a tweet from the leader of the brexit group saying i now fear every attempt will be made to block or delay triggering article 50. they have no idea the level of public anger they will provoke. this is a tough one. the courts have said the public will is not enough. parliament has to vote on this. if you're a uk parliamentarian, you're in trouble today, joe. >> okay. thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. mika, i think there are quite a few members of parliament sha shaking their heads. they don't want to make this

vote. acrokrocross britain, a lot of constituents are saying the system is rigged. we had the vote. they're trying to take it back from us and turn it back over to the elites. that puts a lot of members of parliament in a very tough position. they're going to be lobbied very hard not to cast that vote. we'll see how it goes. obviously the markets think they're not going to exit now obviously or else the pound wouldn't be going up so high. >> coming up from pittsburgh to the philly suburbs, nbc's chris jansing is in a different part of pennsylvania every day. this time she's covering melania trump's first campaign speech of the general election and kristen welker is live in arizona where a new poll gives the republican contender a five-point edge. we'll be right back with much more "morning joe." constipated? trust number one doctor recommended dulcolax use dulcolax tablets for gentle overnight relief suppositories for relief in minutes and stool softeners for comfortable relief

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>> i made a deliberate effort to make sure i don't look like i'm m meddling in what are supposed to be independent processes. there's a norm when there's investigations, we don't operate on innuendo. we don't operate on incomplete information. we don't operate on leaks. we operate based on concrete decisions that are made. >> president obama doesn't want

to mettle. when they said what a great man he was and how much integrity he had, was that meddling as well? >> i have no idea how barack obama has the audacity -- and i will say the audacity, to make those statements when "the wall street journal" points out this morning and i remember and you remember very well, he came out in november while fbi agents were still gathering evidence before they had all the evidence in their hands. he said in 2015 there was nothing here to see. she had not done anything that would cause any problems to national security. he not only said that, i believe in october of 2015, he doubled down as chief law enforcement officer in america in undercutting the fbi investigators again in the spring of 2016.

so much so that "the new york times" wrote an article earlier this year saying that he had angered a lot of fbi agents and investigators by trying to step in without any evidence, without knowing anything about the case at all and draw his own conclusions and try to influence the outcome of the case. so there may be, mika, some actors with clean hands here that could come out and for what he did, for not acting on innuendo and not all of the information, but president obama and the record is very clear on this point is the last person in the world to cast aspersions in that realm because he has been the worst of all actors in his position and most irresponsible from the start in trying to influence an investigation that he knew very little about. >> meanwhile, it's been reported that for over a year the justice department and the fbi clashed over the validity of a probe

into the clinton foundation. according to "the wall street journal," secret recordings of a suspect talking about the foundation sparked an internal battle between fbi agents who wanted to pursue the case and justice department prosecutors who viewed the statements as hearsay. now, the paper reports the fbi based its early investigation on claims made in the book clinton cash which suggested financial misconduct surrounding the clinton foundation. the clinton campaign has long dismissed claims made in the book as false and unsubstantiatunsubstantiate unsubstantiatet and the clinton foundation says it does immense good throughout the world. senior officials at both the justice department and the fbi didn't think much of the evidence, says the paper, citing officials at multiple agencies. in addition, the justice

department and the fbi also disagreed on the significance of secret recordings of a suspect in an unrelated corruption investigation. according to the journal, the person described alleged deals with the clinton family but the justice department viewed those statements as hearsay as that person was not connected to the clinton foundation and the alleged deals were unverified. fbi agents listening to the recordings couldn't tell from the conversations if what the suspect was describing was accurate but thought it was worth looking into. all this comes amid the continuing furor surrounding fbi director james comey's revelation last friday that new e-mails had emerged that could be related to a closed clinton e-mail investigation. so, joe, it's complicated. there seems to be a lot of internal strife over this interagency internal strife. >> a lot of internal strife. a lot of politics going on being played. by the way, the article i was

talking about was actually october 16th, 2015, article in "the new york times." in it they say the president's statements angered fbi agents who have been working for months to determine whether mrs. clinton's e-mail setup did in fact put any of the nation's secret at risk. willie geist, this has become from the president jumping in with very little information back in the fall and then again in the spring and then other fbi agents leaking their disappointment and anger. this turned into an absolute battle between -- it's almost like intermural scrimmage between the fbi and the justice department. >> earlier this week josh earnest from the podium at white house briefing room, it wasn't a full throated whole hearted defense of jim comey but said we'll stay out of this and he's on his own and you had president obama yesterday coming out and inserting his opinion that this

information shouldn't have been out in the public. you're right about the fbi and the justice department. this fight between them now is spilling onto the front pages of "the wall street journal." a pretty remarkable piece. people ought to read it which says there were fbi agents who believe there was a case to pursue in the clinton foundation. there were things that were worth looking into and that they repeatedly were told from the top, from their bosses, to leave it alone and let it go because at the top they didn't believe there was enough to go on here but the people investigating, the fbi agents who were digging into this, believed there was. >> so coming up, "time" magazine has dedicated two recent covers to donald trump's so-called meltdown. so what's in store for this week's edition with just five days until election day? and also, trump's campaign manager kellyanne conway joins the table ahead on "morning joe."

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>> joining us now from pittsburgh, political reporter for "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst robert costa. robert, first of all, how's pennsylvania looking? >> i'm here in western pennsylvania, mika. it seems to be a little bit like trump country, but there's a lot of union households here, traditional democratic voters. though it feels on the ground a state for trump, i think it's still on the fundamentals a state for clinton. >> let's go through new polling in traditional democratic territories. a new poll shows trump inching ahead 40% to clinton's 39%.

the race is statistically tied. there may also be opportunity for trump in pennsylvania demonstrated by polls taken mostly or completely after the fbi's letter on potential new e-mails. in a quinnipiac poll, clinton's lead is five points. four points in the cnn/orc poll. now let's look at wisconsin. a marquette university poll shows a steady race there. even in the aftermath of the fbi revelations, clinton leads by six. 46% to trump's 40%. her lead was seven points earlier in the month. in michigan, the fox 2 detroit automated tracking poll found the race tightening on tuesday night. 47% for clinton and 44% for trump. and a stunning new poll from

colorado from the university of denver has the race tied. conducted saturday through monday clinton and trump are at 39% each. joe? >> you know, willie, you have seen my bedroom, and it's a mess. i save all of "the new york times," and i keep them stacked up and i have a unique filing system that's like mel gibson's system in the conspiracy movie. i pulled out tuesday, october 18th's "the new york times" and the headline is clinton pushes into gop trying to crush trump. and in this story, just a couple weeks old, you have the clinton campaign actually talking about their efforts to stop smirking at my filing system. i saw you looking at mika. >> we were laughing about the part of willie you've seen the inside of my bedroom and let it

float out there. sorry. go ahead. >> you love "the new york times" as well. >> i do. >> your father is a legend there. they were talking two weeks ago about winning states like indiana, missouri, arizona, not incognito needing to advertise anymore in colorado. this morning we wake up, just one set of polls, but it seems like we've been saying this now for several days. just one set of polls. just one set of polls. basically a tie in new hampshire. plus three in michigan, which is within the margin of error. a tie in colorado. trump way ahead in ohio. trump up six in arizona. trump up six in nevada. a tie in florida. it seems like they may have gotten a little bit over their skis a few weeks ago. >> remember texas we were talking about two weeks ago had tightened up. as we sit here, i didn't think that was really going to happen, but it was used as an example of how she was going completely change the map. she still may have a landslide here. the states are so close. the ones you rattled off going

all of the way through, if she wins north carolina, if she wins virginia, she's expected to do and if she wins colorado and pennsylvania. if he can't steal one of those upper midwest states. michigan or wisconsin. all of these states, she still could win big. the point is in the states that donald trump must win because his margin for error is so small, bob costa, he's at least close right now. she's obviously -- as i say, she could win big. in a couple states that are coin tosses, he could win. >> i'm here in western pennsylvania and you sense from a lot of working class voters, traditional republicans, they are coming home to donald trump. they are enthusiastic about his message. yesterday i was in the milwaukee suburbs, and there was a lot of skittishness still in spite of the fbi probe about donald trump. upper midwest in the rust belt, trump just can't count on traditional republican vote. he needs to make sure they come back to him. he also has to add to his

coalition and get a coalition that has working class democrats, that has independents. it's going to be a tough road for trump. at this moment, his team believes based on their internal data that he could somehow cobble it together. >> let me go right now to nick confessore and sam stein. nick, i'll start with you. trump ahead by one in new hampshire. up on average four in pennsylvania. colorado tied. ohio plus five trump. arizona plus six trump. nevada plus six trump. clinton plus one or two in florida. what sticks out to you with all of those polls? what are you looking at right now, nick? >> college degrees and people of color. the dividing line here is education and immigration and voters of color and what's changing this map and making it sort of weird this year is that, again, clinton is taking more college voters and trump is

taking more of the working class voters and shifted the states around so that the midwestern states and pennsylvania and michigan are within reach for him in some ways and arizona is possibly a state for clinton. i find that fascinating. it's changed the whole map this year. >> it really has. sam stein, we've got so many poll numbers out that we've been going through today. it really shows -- looks like a race in a lot of these swing states that look like a tossup. what are you looking at? what are today's poll numbers showing you? >> i stopped being able to look at poll numbers. it's just too much. there's too many numbers at this point. i'm tired from the cubs game last night. you know. >> that's it. that's all you're going to say. >> thank you for coming on, sam. are you using a ouija board now? >> that wouldn't be a bad idea. there is an interesting non-poll number. this just emphasized what nick's point was. it's fascinating.

north carolina early votes, they have great tabulations about where it's coming from. these are numbers among people who didn't vote in 2012 but have early voted in 2016. whites, clinton, 43, trump, 45. this is crazy. nonwhites in north carolina, clinton 97. trump 2. that's the divide here, which is she's going to have huge margins among nonwhite voters. the question is can she turn out african-americans in numbers that are close to what obama did in 2012. she'll never get back to 2012 levels. and can he overcome that by bringing out what you referenced in the earlier hour, a non -- a white working class voter population that hasn't always gone to the polls that might be sort of sitting there untested, unnoticed, and might turn out. i think he needs a better ground game to get them. it's not totally without reach. >> we shall see.

obviously jeremy peters article yesterday on the front page suggesting that black voters are not coming out anywhere near the numbers they came out four years ago at least in north carolina and florida and ohio. >> joining the conversation right now, we have donald trump's campaign manager kellyanne conway back on the set. good to have you. i want to show you your candidate. donald trump on the trail yesterday. take a look. >> a lot of very, very big poll numbers coming down over the last few days. you've seen it. we are going to win the white house. we're going to win it. it's feeling like it already, isn't it? we've got to be nice and cool. nice and cool. right. stay on point, donald. stay on point. no side tracks, donald. nice and easy. nice. i've been watching hillary the last few days. she's totally unhinged. we don't want any of that.

>> kellyanne, were you jumping at the tv saying don't say what i say to you. don't say what i say to you. that sounds like he's channeling some good advice. >> he's doing a fabulous job. the closing arguments are so different from these two candidates. she's gone totally negative. it's all over the papers today. whatever happened to when we go low we go high and she's gone lower and lower. tens of millions of dollars in negative ads about donald trump. we've known from the beginning -- the day i took this job i told mr. trump two things had to happen. one is to make sure it's a referendum on hillary clinton and not on him. that's what's happened last couple weeks. the most popular t-shirt we'll see is i'm voting for the candidate not under two fbi investigations. >> kellyanne, what are one or two states that your internal polls show are public polling is completely wrong and that you think you can win that the public doesn't believe or polls don't believe you can. >> i think most of the trends you see are blossoming in our

private polling as well. something we've seen for a while are colorado and pennsylvania. you're starting to see that in the public polling as well. and it's not a big mystery. it's where we invest our two greatest assets. governor pence and mr. trump and where we put our ads on tv. we fully funded our ground game in the last five days and fully funded our ad buys. the last big push when people are paying attention and obviously i think we've got them on the run. they're sort of following our lead. they're sticking tim kaine in wisconsin and hillary clinton in michigan. to joe's point about the october 18th article in "the new york times," where they're going to try to have a landslide and push forward in red states. i looked at that and thought that looks like a fine idea. let's do that ourselves. we're pushing into blue states. if you try to apply conventional political wisdom to donald trump, you lose every time. the idea that, well, michigan or wisconsin have been elusive to republican candidates. he's just different. his message on illegal

immigration and trade and jobs and patriotism, he's just a different message. just a different messenger. we see it resonating in pennsylvania. i'll be in pennsylvania later today with melania trump for a big speech. >> joe, jump in. >> i want to go back to colorado. i'm trying to figure out exactly what you guys saw in colorado. again, maybe it ends up with a big win for hillary. who knows. but for weeks now, when polls were showing colorado 10, 11, 12 points in hillary's favor, people in your campaign were saying, no, our numbers -- it was almost like they couldn't believe it. our numbers are looking great in colorado. a state where it doesn't make sense. large hispanic population. highly educated. suburban voters around denver. so what exactly did you all see 10, 11, 12 days ago that the public polls now only the past couple days have been showing? >> a few things. first hillary's ceiling. i talked about it many times.

she just can't break through her own plexiglas ceiling. we always thought if we can reach in and get some voters, that would be very positive for us. the other thing we've seen is we model the electorate differently. we lived through the 2012 election and felt -- i felt as a professional pollster that the modeling was very static and not dynamic and a lot of wishful thinking. i'm not somebody that engages in wishful thinking. i'm a numbers person. don't ask me to draw anything or decorate anything. you'll be disappointed. i'm a numbers person. when you look at the data and what exists in partly the undercover trump voter but partly those who already decided. this is key to us. already decided that they want to take the country in a new and different direction and not continue with the same policies

yet they weren't yet voting for donald trump. in each state we looked at what percentage that is. we always knew that those would be our voters. we knew that a share of the electorate in each of these blue states have already decided to vote against hillary clinton and it's our job to make sure they have reasons to vote for donald trump and that's really made the difference in the last few weeks. >> kellyanne, pennsylvania has been fool's gold for your party at the presidential level for decades now. year after year we see it. you can win it but you can't. what's changing this year for donald trump to change that equation for you guys. >> in part it's the trump message. it's what i said earlier. bob costa is reporting from western pennsylvania. we see this message is now resonating in other parts of pennsylvania. it's the axis of jobs, trade, illegal immigration and a lot of patriotism. we're going to be in hershey, pennsylvania, tomorrow night. there will be 12,000 to 15,000 people there i'm sure because folks really feel like they're part of a movement.

in pennsylvania, we've had -- we've seen gains in the nonpresidential years and i'm a student of the 2010-2014 elections and people are tweeting it's a different electorate. i get that. my point is if you can get a messenger that can reach in and tap into these 2010, 2014 messages, you can increase turnout. part of that messaging was obamacare. this is a party -- i was very involved in this. this was a party that did really well in 2010 and 2014 and if you ask me to choose one issue that made it so, it would be obamacare. here we are just having lived through a month in october of premium increases. people opening up their mailboxes or clicking on their computers and seeing that some of them are going to have to choose between the rent, the food, and staying on health care. in pennsylvania, i think it's over 50% in increases. also in pennsylvania, it's buried in a hill article today, i believe it is, about polling in pennsylvania. we see this internally, joe.

women in pennsylvania, particularly in those counties around philadelphia near where i grew up are starting to come back to donald trump. >> let's talk about women. joe biden called him a sick puppy and said his fixation on women's bodies is worse than hugh hefner's. >> we're going high. >> the obama administration has worked on developing policies that help women in the workforce. they created the white house council on women and girls. what would the trump white house council on women and girls look like? will he continue that? how does he getting into these final days appeal to women in a way that really makes him believe that he doesn't look at them as objects? >> we appeal to women substanti substantively. in 28 years i never heard the phrase men's issues. the presumption is men can focus on all issues and women are only

supposed to talk about certain issues. we believe women care about security, whether it's national security, whether it's health care security, retirement security and financial security. we also believe that women are -- the idea that there are councils and rhetoric for equal pay from hillary clinton who pays women less than men at her state department in her u.s. senate office and most recently at the clinton foundation. it's hypocrisy. watch what i do and not what i say. i think that's what voters are doing right now with hillary clinton which is you can say that you've been fighting for women and children for 30 years. where is the product and where exactly is the deliverable? we have unless of women in poverty. 15% of the population is in poverty. predominantly female. why do 16 million plus women not have health insurance after obama care has been on the books for six or seven years? we're going to tackle that. i think she needs to own all of these deficits. women are a product of their

choices more than their circumstances today. i think it's a wonderful time to be a woman in the united states of america. to think that women have not been left behind many of them in the obama/biden presidency is false. the idea they'll message to women based on things that donald trump has said here and there and not look at the policies, look at his policies. he has a detailed plan to repeal and replace obamacare. anyone can read it. he has a detailed plan to reform veterans administration and put forward a detailed plan to defeat radical terrorism who has a guide posted on how to own female slaves. hillary clinton calls isis our determined enemies. donald trump calls them savaged murderers. >> what's his plan for equal pay? >> we believe equal pay for equal work is great idea. he's talked about that. i think that if you look at the trump corporation, you look at the trump campaign frankly, women have been promoted by

donald trump to the highest levels in the trump corporation and certainly his campaign, and i can assure you that he will take a look at the fact that now in our country the workplace is everywhere. the workforce is everyone. and really try to take a look at rewarding work in a way -- it's not about government policies. it's about incentivizing employers. >> i want to play a sound bite of something donald trump said on the trail last night. >> we have massive crowds. there is something reporting i. katy, you're not reporting it. there's something happening, katy. there's something happening, katy. >> katy tur. >> do you think it's appropriate for donald trump in a setting like that to sing the out any reporter by name given the heat reporters have taken in this and that katy had to be escorted out by secret service at previous rallies. why is he calling people out by

name in the back of the room? >> he didn't mean it in any malicious way. i have spoken to nbc news about that issue. i'll leave it there. >> could you shed any light on it? >> no. sorry. >> wow. >> you can call me later. >> why can't we talk about it on tv? >> i will tell you just generally about the media. you saw the polls. i hope you saw them this week that by a margin of 10 to 1, that's way outside of the margin of error, by margin of 10 to 1, americans think the media want hillary clinton to win. the combination of donald trump rallying against political correctness and him reminding people what they already suspect, which is that the fix is in in many places, not all places. not even most place perhaps, willie but people are so tired of being told what to think and how to act and what to do -- >> how does that connect with katy tur. >> it connects with the media generally. that's one of his biggest -- >> i've never seen in her

reporting ever tell anyone what to think. never once. >> i'm extrapolating on one of his major compelling and successful messaging points throughout this whole campaign which is don't let the establishment define you and tell you. that was the magic in the primaries. you combine ted cruz, donald trump, they were against establishment organizations. don't let people tell you who can win who and who can't win and what to think and what to believe. look at what's happened in the last couple weeks. i really appreciated joe on the set yesterday and you, as well, mika, calling out some of your colleagues in the media. not by name saying you've been cheerleaders and not reporters the last couple weeks. where do these stories, particularly in print by the way and repeated on tv. the race is over. she's going to have a landslide. people don't like that. for many americans, for them it's the most important thing they'll do in the next five

days. it's the best part about democracy is that everyone has one vote. >> you agree that donald trump is wrong to call katy out? >> i prefer when he talks about institutions generally. i had an exchange with katy last night. i've been in touch with nbc news. >> kellyanne conway, thank you. we asked the clinton campaign for someone from their campaign leadership to join us this morning, but they declined to make anyone available. joe? bob costa, let's go to pennsylvania again. and again we looked at polls out yesterday. plus five clinton. plus four clinton. plus four clinton and then i think another one had plus four and then plus two. a lot of polls coming out in pennsylvania. and you're in western pennsylvania right now. is the strategy to run up a massive lead in western and central pennsylvania that they can overcome the suburbs of philadelphia where donald trump doesn't seem to be doing as

well? >> you can't overcome suburbs in pennsylvania. i think about pennsylvania if you drive from where i am right now in pittsburgh and you head east, it's trump town after trump town. these are steel cities and steel towns that have been forgotten by the steel industry. there's rising crime in some of these areas. when you hit the philadelphia suburbs, you have a lot of women who i grew up around in bucks county who may be intrigued by trump's message of change, but when it comes to his comments about women, the allegations about sexual assault or sexual misconduct, that's a threshold they feel trump hasn't really met. he hasn't answered them enough on that front. the most important thing is not what trump says on the trail, it's what his wife says to suburban women in philadelphia. can he in these final days convince them to come around? >> so you are saying there just aren't enough votes in the rest of the state to get by if you're

outed if philadelphia or the suburbs of philly. he has to cut into the suburbs of philly if he wants to have any chance whatsoever of carrying pennsylvania. >> he does. more than 1 million voters in philadelphia proper and in suburbs you have hundreds of thousands of voters and moderate republicans in the suburbs and in western pennsylvania, there may be a lot of soft trump support but it still in many ways union democratic voters. the old reagan democrats who haven't made the full transition and weren't all about mitt romney or john mccain and trump has got them excited but there is traditional democrats and there's a question about trump's ground game in pennsylvania. a lot of spirit but clinton is well organized as well in western pennsylvania. >> bob costa, thank you very much. still ahead on "morning joe," brand new national polling just out. we'll reveal those numbers and as we mentioned, donald trump is getting extra help on the trail today. his wife melania delivers a

speech in battleground pennsylvania. while ted cruz, yes ted cruz, campaigns with mike pence in iowa and just ahead, we'll talk to former romney adviser stuart stevens who says trump campaign aspirations to take wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania is folly. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. surprise!!!!! we heard you got a job as a developer! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is?

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>> this has been an incredible journey and we've all done it together. we're almost at the end. but we're really at the end of the beginning if you think about it. the end of the beginning. >> the new "the washington post"/abc news tracking poll has just been released. it has hillary clinton pulling back into the lead 47% to donald trump's 45%. while the race remains statistically tied, trump took the advantage in the poll on tuesday after trailing by 12 points a week earlier. a new national poll from "the new york times" and cbs shows a

three-point race within the margin of error. clinton 45%, trump, 42%. a six-point swing in trump's favor in a poll taken in the four days after fbi director james comey's letter to congress. joining us now from annapolis, maryland, political consultant and daily beast columnist stuart stevens. he was chief strategist for mitt romney's 2012 presidential campaign and also with us, writer for the fix at "the washington post" phillip bump. john meachem is back at the table. joe, take it. >> a lot of polls over the last couple days. colorado tied. michigan, clinton plus three. pennsylvania, clinton plus four. trump up five in ohio. up six in arizona. up six in nevada. tied essentially in florida. what do you make of all of the sort of moving and shaking going on out there? >> i think you have to look at the fundamentals here. nbc/"wall street journal" poll

which is going to come out in a couple of days i think will be very interesting. they spend the most money on their polls and probably do the best job. you know, i think it's a case where these ground staples are going to kick in. you remember that basically romney and obama were tied on election day. obama won by, what, three and change? we never had a situation where one campaign had a formidable organization and the other campaign really has nothing. and all or modelling is based upon the assumption the two campaigns will be equal. so when you just look at who is going to be turning out this vote and a lot of these trump voters as you were saying earlier are not high propensity voters. i just think a few days before the game if you are trying to teach people how to block and tackle, it's usually not a good sign. >> phillip bump, weigh in.

what does the fix think about this? is it as close as it seems to be or natural tightening that will end up where we predict? >> we've seen consistently from national polls that hillary clinton has a slight lead. i think stuart is right. if you look at what both campaigns are doing, hillary clinton has a natural advantage in turning her folks out to actually vote. i think that you look at ohio for example and ohio the gop is not very fond of donald trump and so if people say in their -- when they're talking to people on doors, i'll vote for rob portman but not interested in voting for donald trump. they'll turn out to the polls. that can make a big difference in closing days. >> kellyanne was here making the point of forget the history of the way presidential elections have looked. forget that it looks like colorado is out of reach. she said this is a different kind of candidate. support comes from different places. places the media may not

recognize. is he that much different that he could defy the history of president a.m. elections? >> i don't want to rule it out, right. it's possible i suppose. if you look at some of the data -- i know we talked about earlier about him performing above average in the primary. if you look at the primary data, he kind of hit his mark. if you look at registration numbers from around the country, it doesn't suggest that there's this massive wave of working class white voters that have been sitting on the sidelines that are going to come off suddenly. so it's difficult to see. stewart would know this more than anything else. remember back in 2012, there was this whole talk of momentum for mitt romney. he had drawn a crowd of 50,000 people in pittsburgh, i believe, and they were going to go into pennsylvania and no one had seen these crowds before, and it was going to turn in his favor and then the fundamentals sort of kicked in and it didn't work. i do wonder as we look at some

of these polls, it's tightening but i wonder if we're getting sucked into momentum idea again and when you actually look at the underlying race, it's more stable than we all give it credit for being. >> so much of it has to do with the answer to sam stein's question whether hillary clinton's turnout operation is as extraordinary as barack obama's team's turnout operation was. it was nothing short of extraordinary. again numbers in "the new york times" suggest yesterday that hillary clinton is coming up short thus far there is though still several days to go. >> well, it's a known unknown. i want with stuart who has been to this movie before. how blind-sided were you on election day? did you go into election day '12 thinking you were coming out on top? >> our polls never showed mitt romney ahead of the president.

now, i've done a lot of races where we've beaten incumbents where we were never ahead except on election day. the other -- so it's possible. it was always the advantage went to the incumbent president as it always does. one of the understated things here is how many people are voting early. if you take florida, there's a huge increase in early voting. and i think the data indicates that that's favoring clinton. so you're going to go into election day in some of these states with a very steep hill to climb if you're behind because 40% of the electorate has already voted. >> stuart stevens, thank you very much. phillip bump, stay with us, if you can. if hillary clinton hopes to govern, she'll need a senate to work with. races that look like lay-ups suddenly tightening. we'll go through those numbers just ahead and tonight if you want a break from politics,

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talking about the presidential campaign, what about the senate? the fate of the senate remains unclear with swing state polls tightening. a just released poll in new hampshire gives republican senator kelly ayotte a five-point lead over maggie hassan. russ feingold's lead over ron johnson has narrowed to a single point in the marquette poll of wisconsin. and two pennsylvania polls show katie mcginty clinging to a small lead over senator pat toomey. in a monmouth poll up by three expanding her lead in the southeastern part of the state to 23 points. in las vegas last night, hillary clinton sought to boost catherine cortez masto. the latest poll has her trailing by two. and florida cnn poll shows the

lead -- in missouri, blunt leads kander by a single point. what jumps out at you? >> i want to talk to phillip bump about them. ayotte's number very surprising. she really has done well against the headwinds that she's been enduring. the rubio race much closer than expected. looks like pat toomey continues to fight a real uphill battle in pennsylvania. that's not surprising for a small government conservative like pat toomey in a presidential election year in pennsylvania. the two states that really are catching my eye so far, phillip, at least this week, one, wisconsin. where did russ feingold's lead go? a lot of democrats have to think from double digits to in the bag to everybody basically playing taps for ron johnson's political

career down to one point. the other race on the other side of the ledger, roy blunt. what in the world is happening where trump is up by double digits and blunt, a household name in that state, has seen his lead collapse. just let's talk about those two states. what in the world has happened to the front runners lead? >> i think what's fascinating about those two states is they are bucking the trend more. the trend has been that republican senate candidates are outperforming trump. republicans are starting to come home generally to the party. but wisconsin and missouri are both bat examples of that. undercutting my own point here. in wisconsin, wisconsin republicans have always been apathetic about donald trump. they were in the primaries but they seem to be coming around in that senate race which obviously is good news for the republicans. in missouri, it seems to be to some extent that it's just simply the democratic candidate is doing a good job appealing to folks. he's a unique candidate.

a veteran. a lot of things going for him that i think isn't the case with a lot of candidates and for democrats elsewhere in the country. >> jason kander, missouri's democratic secretary of state gained national attention with his background ads. take a look at this. >> i'm jason kander, in the army i learned how to use and respect my rifle. in afghanistan i volunteered to be an extra gun and in the state legislature i supported second amendment rights. i also believe in background checks so that terrorists can't get their hands on one of these. i approve this message because i would like to see senator blunt do this. >> oh wow, joe. that's really good. >> john meachem, that's what we call in the deep south strong. that is strong. >> what i would say to senator blunt, bless his heart.

incredible. one of the greatest political ads ever. >> that was fantastic. >> just as a matter of pure political communication. i've never seen anything quite like it. >> phillip bump, this guy is a 35-year-old secretary of state, right? nobody really saw this coming. >> that's right. particularly in missouri. missouri used to be a swing state now a deep red state. it's the sort of place where in a year where democrats should do well nationally because it's a presidential election year, the sort of place where you expect missouri to have the republican senator do okay. it came out of left field. >> real quick -- >> sorry, joe. not just on style but this is also a substance issue. you all were on the front end of the sandy hook shootings. joe manchin, all that. if we ever get common sense gun legislation, it's going to be because of people like that. >> it's a 90/10 issue. he's using a 90/10 issue.

roy blunt is on the wrong side of that as are most of the people that support background checks to stop guns from getting in the hands of terrorists or domestic abusers or people that have serious mental issues. so that ad is a perfect storm against a candidate who is out of step at least on that issue he's talking about with 90% of the voters in the state and good luck saying a guy that can do that with his gun doesn't understand guns and is some elite. one other thing about missouri that's interesting, mika. it's a state that actually went for mitt romney. went against barack obama and yet our good friend claire mccaskill won by double digits back in 2012. the show-me state, also the ticket splitter state. this would not be unusual for missouri. also, again, i just got to say, russ feingold, i don't -- i'm really surprised his lead has evaporated the way it has.

two fascinating states to watch from two very independent electorates in both wisconsin and in missouri. >> phillip bump, thank you very much. still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> we got one week until the most important election in my lifetime and wisconsin is absolutely key. we got to have you, wisconsinites. we absolutely have to have you. will you support hillary clinton? will you make sure we win wisconsin? >> tim kaine on the trail. conservative radio host charlie sykes joins us from wisconsin to talk about whether trump has any shot of pulling that state away from the democrats. gary, gary, gary... i am proud of you, my man. making simple, smart cash back choices... with quicksilver from capital one. you're earning unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. like on that new laptop. quicksilver keeps things simple, gary. and smart, like you! and i like that. i guess i am pretty smart.

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>> joining us now from miami beach, florida, katy tur joins us. how are they feeling about florida right now, katy? >> reporter: they are feeling pretty good about florida. that's why they're spending so much time here. they believe they have a real shot to take this state. but the numbers so far aren't exactly in donald trump's favor. we look at that polling that's

out. it shows him in a statistical tie with hillary clinton. if you look at the early voting numbers, 4.5 million people have voted early here in florida. a quarter of the republicans who have done so have voted for hillary clinton. so that's not the best sign for donald trump. that being said, often times the people that go out and vote early are more democratic leaning. so he does have that in his favor. but florida is really something a state that he's got to find a way to win. if hillary clinton can take this state, and she's been rising in the polls a little bit lately, she's going to have a much easier path to 270 than donald trump is. he's going to be in jacksonville. president obama will be here in florida as well in miami and jacksonville. so clearly quite a fight for this state. after that, donald trump is going to be in north carolina. another state that's just absolutely a must win. north carolina, florida, ohio and pennsylvania all states that donald trump absolutely needs. he does not get pennsylvania,

he's got to find a way to get a state like michigan or wisconsin in his favor. wisconsin is still polling in hillary at the moment. but they do believe they could have a shot there. michigan is also somewhere that they believe they're going to be polling better than expected, potentially being able to take the state. there's a large african-american vote there and a lot of experts say that state is absolutely unlikely for donald trump at the moment. >> katy tur, thank you so much. up next, in north carolina, in 2012 and 2008, african-american voters were much likelier than white voters to vote early. this year, that's not the case. does that mean they're not going to show up, or as the upshot suggests in the "new york times," that their voting habits may be changing. the reverend al sharpton joins the table with election day just five days away. "morning joe" is back in a moment.

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while donald trump and his dad were being sued by the department of justice for denying housing to african-american families, no, i'm not making this up. i'm stating facts, at that same time, hillary was going undercover from school to school to make sure disadvantaged kids were getting an equal shot at education. that tells you something about their respected values. >> that is president obama in north carolina, urging african-americans to rally behind hillary clinton. our latest nbc news analysis shows early voting among african-americans is lower than where it was at this point in

2012 in florida and north carolina. still, no matter what happens on tuesday, the end is near. as the new issue of "time" magazine. it reminds us of that. did they pose for that? >> no, they did not pose for that. >> joining us now, host of msnbc's politics nation and president of the national action network, reverend al sharpton. also with us, editor of "time" magazine, nancy gibbs, who has been working on photoshop to make this unity look like it appears to be real. >> something we can all agree on. >> we can all agree the end is near. >> i thought she was giving my forecast for my sermon on sunday. >> reverend al, what are you looking at and what do you make of the early voting numbers among african-americans? >> one, i think it's expected you're not going to get the same numbers for mrs. clinton that you had for president obama. but i think secondly, you need those numbers up, and i think the fact that president obama

and mrs. obama is out there, will have a lot to do with it, and there are a lot of people on the ground that are going to be pushing. they have got to make the argument the president just made. and that is, what is donald trump's record as opposed to hillary clinton's record? i think that people will vote their interests. donald trump can only point to, and that have dealt in new york for many years, know his housing discrimination lawsuit and his whole ads around central park five. those are the only race-related things that we know about donald trump from a policy level. how can black voters ignore that? if i'm out there, i would be raising those issues with the president did in that speech yesterday. i'm going to north carolina tomorrow to interview the president. he'll be on "politics nation" sunday morning on msnbc, and i'm going to really talk to him about what's at stake with his

legacy, particularly with people of color and others where there's been inroads where donald trump has said law and order, and we're dealing with a president that has been dealing with criminal justice reform and police reform and all. those are the arguments that have to be made this weekend. >> willie. >> it's interesting to hear you talk, though. you're talking about why donald trump is no good. and why we should continue barack obama's leggy. you're not talking about why hillary clinton would be the better candidate. are people going to vote negatively against donald trump? >> no, i think, i said the argument the president made because he said while donald trump was facing housing discrimination, mrs. clinton was dealing with education rights and went undercover. ironically, i'm from brooklyn, new york. ironically, she went undercover in alabama where my mother was from, and doethen, alabama, is not a major city to go in that deep, which she did, unknown, young white lady, to go down there and do that, it's something that needs to be

promoted more. i think that there will be people that look at mrs. clinton's repocord, and we know here as the senator from new york, in which she did, and looking at trump. i think that's the argument that may be the argument that brings those turnout numbers out. >> nancy gibbs, looking at this cover with polls tightening, some swing states looking a little precarious, depending on who you're voting for. what exactly do you mean by the "end is near." like the end of the world or the end of the election? >> yes, certainly, as we have seen all along, there are people on both sides who really do think if the other candidate gets elected, that something profoundly dangerous is occurring. and maybe there's an element of that in any election, but i haven't seen anything like it. >> sharper. it feels sharper. >> what i keep wondering about because so many predictions have proven so wrong that i'm out of the prediction business, is no matter what happens, what of

this election abides, there are so many things that have been said and done and precedents and patterns broken that i'm curious about going forward, for candidates going forward, will it be if donald trump wins, will it be okay to talk about women and immigrants this way that is actually now something that's considered acceptable. if he loses, will it be because of a historic gender gap and we're at the first time it's possible white women will vote for a democrat rather than a republican, which is probably what would have to happen for clinton to prevail. does that mean we're looking at a serious change in the way women can be talked about in public and private life. these issues have been surfaced all through this year. it's not like that stops on november 9th. the nature -- >> what's the carryover. >> what it's going to take to heal after this, i think, is going to be a really significant conversation for us to have. >> reverend al sharpton, thank

you. nancy gibbs, thank you as well. we'll look at the cover of "time" magazine. you can pick up your cover. and the next hour of "morning joe" starts right now. >> this is going to be a tough play. bryant. the cubs win the world series! bryant makes the play. it's over. and the cubs have finally won it all. >> well, good morning. it's thursday, november 3rd. and what a game it was last night joe. >> what a game indeed. i tell you what. willie geist, this was one -- i mean, this really was one for the ages. you obviously had a team trying to win for the first time in 108 years. and the way they went about it, unbelievable. i mean, they were pushed all the way back to a 3-1 deficit. they come back. they're ahead. the indians che s keep fighting.

then they go to extra innings in game seven. rain delay. this game had everything. what a way for them to win. >> it was incredible. the curse is over. the thing that has defined the chicago cubs in some ways that side of chicago, the city, for 108 years, is over now. chicago cubs are world series champions. it sounds crazy to say that. i was born in evanston, illinois. all my family is from chicago. i was thinking about my grandfather, my uncles and all the peek who walked in and out of wrigley field for the last 108 years to have a losing season. now they have one. let's check out highlights. dexter fowler led off the game with a solo shot out in center field to get the scoring started for the cubs. the indians answer in the third with an rbi single from carlos santana. cubs bats, though, heat up in the next inning. two runs off an addison russell sac fly, then an rbi double from

wilson contreras. momentum continues in the fifth. cubs piling on. a solo home run from javy bies, and then another single from anthony rizzo. chicago there up 5-1 and feeling good. but in the bottom of the inning, the indians remind everybody they're still alive. jon lester, a lot of people weren't sure why he came in the game with hendricks pitching so well. a relief appearance, his first in nine years. base runner on first. catcher david ross throwing error moves a runner to scoring position. a wild pitch from lester cleared the bases, makes it a two-run game. ross making up for his throwing error. his last game as a professional baseball player. he hits a solo home run in the sixth. 6-3. chapman comes in. he had been pitching a lot of innings, including the previous night. he relieves lesser.

gives up a double. indians close the gap. two outs, runner on second. the eighth inning. raji davis of the indians steps to the plate. >> into left. it's gone. raji davis. >> chapman in disbelief as davis ties the game in the eighth inning. 6-6 is the score. just clearing the wall in left field. so both teams blanked in the ninth inning. chapman pulled it together, got out of the inning. then, as joe pointed out, an aninizing 17-minute rain delay. let's go to the top of the tenth after the delay. brian shaw on the mound for cleveland gives up a single that intentionally walked rizzo to get to zobrist. ben zobrist, the world series mvp slapped a double to left field. the go-ahead run scores for

chicago. then another intentional walk. montero makes the indians pay with a run-scoring single to right that pads the cubs' lead. cleveland unable to muster more than a run in the bougttom of t tenth. chicago, here's the last out. kris bryant with a smile on his face, as that ball rolled up. anthony rizzo putting that historic ball in his back pocket. the cubs win. cubs win 8-7. zobrist is the mvp for that go-ahead double in the tenth. the cubs are named world series champions. let's say it again, world series champions, chicago cubs for the first time since 1908, joe. >> willie, i have been watching baseball for a long time. it's hard to think of a more dramatic conclusion to a world series, going into extra innings. game seven, they're down 3-1. i mean, cleveland has had two seven-game championship series this year. and both of them, one team was down 3-1 and came back and won it. unfortunately for cleveland last night, they were on the wrong side of that equation.

but i really -- i didn't think the game should have been that close. you had joe maddon inexplicably taking out hendricks when he was pitching a great game. he didn't have a lot of depth in the bull pen. and yet he pulls hendricks who has the hot hand, the ball is still moving around. and it just set off a series of events that almost cost the cubs another shot at the world series. >> yeah, joe maddon is a great manager, but felt a lot like overmanaging at times last night. hendricks was dealing. he was pitching great. he goes to lester. that happens in game sevens. you feel like there's nothing left to lose. hendricks was pitching well. a lot of people wonder why he made that move, and then to bring in chapman, who pitched more than two innings the night before. threw something like 100 pitches over the last three games, and he came into a position where he just didn't have his best stuff. his arm was weak. you could see john smoltz, the play by play guy, was saying he

didn't have his stuff. nice to see chapman not end up being the go, kind of get off the hook, as the cubs win the world series. i love this shot. this is the last out of the game. the slow-mo of kris bryant as the last ball rolls to him. a smile on his face, a moment when a lot of people would have felt the pressure and tension, wasn't an easy play. he's smiling as he throws the ball. that says it all right there for the chicago cubs. >> just unbelievable. so it was a nice break, let's just say, from what we have been following in the past year or so, mika. >> something that hasn't happened since 1908, so we brought in meacham. with us on set, meacham, as well as political writer for the "new york times," nicholas confessore. >> we have important points about the tr. >> historical parallels? please don't. in washington, senior political editor and white house correspondent for the "huffington post," sam stein. everyone looks really tired this morning. but with good reason.

that is a good break. new polling, though, is testing the ground for donald trump's late push into democratic territory. trying to break through hillary clinton's electoral college advantage. a brand-new poll from wbur new hampshire shows trump inching ahead, 40% to clinton's 39%. the race statistically tied. libertarian gary johnson taking 1 in 10 votes in the live free or die state. and jill stein at 3%. there may also be opportunity for trump in pennsylvania. demonstrated by polls taken mostly or completely after the fbi's letter on potential new e-mails. in a quinnipiac poll, clinton's lead is five points, four points in the cnn/orc poll, and the new monmouth university poll, just two points in a sucehahna poll, within the margin of error of the last two. in wisconsin, a marquette university poll shows a steady race there, even in the aft aftermath of the fbi revelations. clinton leads by six, 46% to

trump's 40%. her lead was seven points earlier in the month. and in michigan, the fox 2 detroit automated tracking poll found the race tightening on tuesday night. 47% for clinton and 44% for trump. and a stunning new poll of colorado from the university of denver has the race tied. it was conducted saturday through monday. clinton and trump are each at 39% in colorado. so joe, some of this is natural, right? at sort of the final hours. >> no, these polls aren't -- i don't think these polls are natural. i thought things were going to tighten up a good bit. i still think pennsylvania is out of range. it's four points, four points, five points. one was a two-point race. that still seems like a four-point race. colorado, though, being tied, i know the trump campaign, we have talked about it for some time, have looked at colorado as a possible win. i thought they were crazy.

most people did as well. because the demographics of that state just don't seem to lend themselves to a donald trump victory for a lot of reasons. but they have been close. clinton was up three last week in a colorado poll. and this one, there's a tie. i saw another colorado poll that had clinton way ahead. wisconsin, plus six. that seems comfortably in the democratic camp. the interesting story there, russ feingold had a double-digit lead. he's now only up one in that poll. and trump ahead in new hampshire. this has been coming for some time. i personally -- i think trump has to win new hampshire. that's the state he has to win, and i have said it for two weeks now. that he needs to put new hampshire in his column if he wants to get to 270. this poll certainly suggests, as some polls showed last week, he's inching in that direction. it seems like a state that is a better fit for him than some

that trump's team are suggesting he can win. >> let's pause the conversation for a moment. a quick break. when we come back, we'll dig in even more to swing state polling as donald trump tries to remind himself to stay on point. >> and later, kristen welker and chris jansing join us live from arizona and pennsylvania with a look at how those battlegrounds are shaping up. we're back after this. proud of you, son. ge! a manufacturer. well that's why i dug this out for you. it's your grandpappy's hammer and he would have wanted you to have it. it meant a lot to him... yes, ge makes powerful machines. but i'll be writing the code that will allow those machines to share information with each other. i'll be changing the way the world works. (interrupting) you can't pick it up, can you? go ahead. he can't lift the hammer. it's okay though! you're going to change the world.

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and move only when you hear the click that says they're buckled in for the drive. never give up till they buckle up. i've never liked marijuana. but i'm voting yes on prop 64 to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over. it has important safeguards for families,

like strict product labeling and child-proof packaging of all marijuana products. and banning edibles that would appeal to a child. raising a teenager, that regulated system makes a lot more sense than what we have now. plus, 64 taxes marijuana to fund priorities like after-school programs. personally, marijuana's not for me. but my mind's made up. i'm voting yes on 64. welcome back to "morning joe." before the break, we were talking about the polls out of some traditionally blue states. why don't we look at battleground states which also show donald trump leading or within striking distance of hillary clinton in the final stretch. in north carolina, the quinnipiac poll puts clinton three points ahead of trump.

47% to 44%. in the margin of error. and trump has regained his lead in ohio, where he and clinton were tied three weeks ago. trump now at 46%, clinton dropping four points to 41%. trump also had a five-point advantage in arizona, according to cnn/orc. 49% to 44%. and the same poll shows trump ahead by six points in nevada, 49% to clinton's 43%. though top political journalist jon ralston cautions the poll shows trump leading in clark county, which obama won by 15 points in 2012. meanwhile, two of the new polls in florida show a dead heat. clinton up by two points, 49% to trump's 47% in the cnn poll. and clinton's lead tightening to just a one-point advantage in the new quinnipiac poll, 46% to 45%. campaigning through the sunshine state yesterday, trump urged his

supporters to work harder and reminded himself to maintain his own composure. >> the polls have just come up. we're way up in florida. i shouldn't say that because i want you to go vote. okay. ready. we're going to pretend we're down. we're down. pretend, right? pretend we're down. we have to win. we have to win big. we have to beat her. >> a lot of very, very big poll numbers coming down over the last few days. you have seen it. we are going to win the white house. we're going to win it. it's feeling like it already, isn't it? we have to be nice and cool. nice and cool. right? stay on point, donald. stay on point. no sidetracks, donald. nice and easy. nice. because i have been watching hillary the last few days. she's totally unhinged. we don't want any of that. >> it's like he's got no filter.

>> what do you mean, it's like he's got no filter? we have known that for some time. >> yeah. >> except this time, he's actually -- the instructions going to his head actually come out of his mouth about being disciplined. that is some interesting stuff. jon meacham, i'm looking at all these numbers, and there are a lot of things that are fascinating. pennsylvania only being a four-point race, but again, i think it's the democrats in the end anyway. michigan, yesterday, i said i saw no evidence that trump had any shot in michigan. a poll comes out showing him in the margin of error. that's still a reach. but if he got either one of those states, it blows up the entire electoral map and makes the path to 270 easier. colorado being tied, another stunner here. bringing up all these states saying i'm surprised by these states. the one state i keep looking at, and i go to you because you know it so well, it's you're a neighbor of it, north carolina.

this is a state, and this is what i saw in ohio four years ago when everybody was saying mitt romney was winning and mitt romney was doing well. i kept looking at ohio, and obama's lead was a stubborn four-point lead. three points, five points, four points, four points. and at some point, i said, wait a second, if he can't move that number down, romney can't win. here, i'm looking at north carolina. it has stubbornly remained in the clinton column. i think if you add all these numbers up that we had from the polls yesterday and averages, trump is at about 255, but he's still 15 points short. those 15 electoral votes, they come from north carolina. explain the complexity of north carolina and why this state deep in the heart of dixie still is stubbornly staying in clinton's column. >> well, it's a mirocosm of the

election. it's red and blue at once. there's these intense blue dots around the research triangle, around chapel hill where the university of north carolina is, and you have very strong pockets of rural, white, formerly solidly democratic voters, two generations ago, who have been solidly republican since ronald reagan. and so you have, to me, if he wins north carolina, i think the whole map is blown up. i suspect, by the way, that there are at least two or three state-wide surprises here that is eluding the polling. i think it's going to be a very long and interesting night on tuesday. because this is, and this is true in north carolina as well, i started thinking of this as what the hell have you got to lose election. which is what trump said, of course, to african-american voters. but really, that's the message that's resonating. i think that helps explain to some extent the tightening here.

if this were a referendum on donald trump, it would largely be over. it has remained a referendum not just on secretary clinton but on the state of the country as it is today and the confidence of the people and elites, frankly, the confidence of the rural north carolina voters, the people in the blue dots, to fix their problems. and the rural voters do not believe -- do not have that confidence. >> coming up on "morning joe," hillary clinton campaigned in las vegas last night to try to seal a win for herself, and for cath ln cortez nasto as well. the latest cnn poll shows her trailing joe heck, but clinton would need wins in places like nevada if she wants a senate to work with. jon ralston joins us next, but first, bill karins guru of the forecast. bill. >> good morning to you, mika. you keep talking about the swing states. we're five days away, we can give you a good idea of what the weather is going to be like on election day. we have been in a warm and dry pattern.

that continues. wisconsin, no problems. sunny and temperatures in the 50s and 60s. looking great in pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, no problem whatsoever. all the way up through new hampshire, no issues. florida looks great. usually florida has a chance of showers and thunderstorms. not on election day. louisiana, texas, not exactly swing states, but they have a chance of light rain and showers in their forecast. in the west, nevada is looking gorgeous. temperatures in the 50s and 60s there. and really, the weather map couldn't -- it looks like a map i would show you in september instead of november. looking great for election day. as far as today is concerned, it's an umbrella day. a soaking rain across new york state, all through new england in the afternoon hours and some will make its way through the big cities of new york and d.c. it shouldn't cause too many travel delays. how about chicago? i'm not sure when the parade is going to be, but what a party it's going to be. the weather looks great into the upcoming weekend. this is fitting. a lot of people sitting outside at wrigleyville last night and

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he's saying, you ought to vote for me because i halt all the same people you do. that's about it, isn't it? i'm just telling you who to blame. look, folks. you almost have to be a 70-year-old white southerner or somebody who followed it and had a lot of memories to know exactly what makes america great again means. so if you're in the white working class and your life expect nlsy has gone down, and that's the only group of americans, by the way, whose life expectancy is going down and your income is going down and you feel rage because you get up every morning and you look in the mirror and you realize you can't do anything to make tomorrow better than today, it makes you crazy. i get that. hillary says, i understand your anger, but answers are better

than anger. and he says, oh, no, they're not. i need you to be really mad. otherwise you might start thinking and i would be in trouble. >> that was bill clinton on the trail yesterday in iowa. what did you think, joe? >> i can't believe how arrogant that approach was. and they are so off key, they're getting more concerned. bill clinton sang donald trump's problem is that millions and millions of voters may start thinking, and he's a guy from the south who understands what -- talks about they're angry. no, they aren't angry at all these other people. they're angry at people like bill clinton. they're angry at people like hillary clinton. they're angry at people like george w. bush. they're angry at people like you and me. they're angry at the people they see as the establishment, that don't understand their lives.

don't understand what they have to do and their struggles day in and day out. and they don't think for good reason that washington is connected to them. and that's exactly what's going on out there. and quite frankly, for a guy like bill clinton, who has been as good on the stump and been as connected to white working class voters as he has over the past half century, to say, oh, donald trump is in trouble if these people start thinking, suggests that millions and millions of people out there are just too stupid to figure out what's in their best interest. and therein lies the same sort of arrogance that made jimmy carter's white house cheer when ronald reagan won the republican nomination. not comparing trump to ronald reagan. i'm comparing one set of arrogant elites with another set of arrogant elites. and we're all -- we're all in

that box. they don't trust any of us. >> i hear you on that. so here's david frum's take of the conservative case for voting for clinton. to vote for trump as a protest against clinton's faults would be like amputating a leg because of a sliver in the toe. on almost every domestic issue, i stand on one side. she stands on the other. but she is a patriot. she will uphold the sovereignty and independence of the united states. she will defend allies. she will execute the laws with reasonable impartiality. she may bend some rules for her own and her supporters' advantage. she will not outrightly defy legality all together. above all, she can govern herself, the first indispensable qualification for governing others. so i will vote for the candidate who rejects my preferences and offends my opinions. there will be other elections. my party will recover. your hen may hesitate to put a

mark beside the name hillary clinton. you're 2345not doing it for her. the vote you cast is for the republic and constitution. jon meacham, is it that base at this point? >> i think so. david frum is a fascinating conservative thinker. he's the man who was the principle architect of the speech that included the phrase axis of evil. he wrote an important book in the '90s called "dead right" which was a critique of arguments joe has also made about how conservatives had lost their way by becoming more establishment, by becoming big government oriented. but that's an establishment republican view right now. and it's why the bush family is not with trump. it's why a lot of moderate republicans, i think, wish bill weld were at the top of the libertarian ticket because they might be able to vote there. what frum is trying to do is normalize something for republicans is instinctually difficult. >> therein lies the dilemma for

not just a lot of conservatives and republicans but a lot of americans. they have looked at boat sites. they're not in love with hillary clinton or donald trump, but they're putting country, as david frum put it there, over party. in a typical side by side, if you didn't love either, you might vote for the republican to support the party and the ticket, where in this case, a lot of conservatives are saying to themselves, people are looking at it and saying we can get through a hillary clinton presidency. we can work with hillary clinton. it wouldn't be my first choice. but this is where we are. >> we have much more ahead this hour. donald trump seemed to catch his wife by surprise when he said in an interview last week that she would be hitting the trail in the final stretch. well, that comes true today. chris jansing joins us live, covering melania's speech in suburban philadelphia. we're back after this.

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imagine with me what it would be like to have donald trump sitting in the oval office come next january. someone who demeans women, mocks the disabled, insults latinos and african-americans. what would it be like to have that person in the most powerful office in the world? the truth is, we really don't have to guess. we just have to look at everything he has said and done in his career and in this

campaign. it's a good preview of what would likely happen. >> as the political pundits like to say, this state is in play for the first time in years. arizona has only voted for a democrat for president once since 1948. and that was my husband in 1996. one of the many reasons bill and i love arizona. so for the first time, we have a real chance to turn this state blue again. >> hillary clinton made a swing through the southwest yesterday, campaigning in las vegas and arizona. she held her largest rally to date on the campus of arizona state university in tempe. according to a local fire marshal, there were 15,000 people onhand. if arizona swings blue in this

election, it will be thanks in no small part to a newly mobilized group of latino activists getting out the vote is there key objective even though some of them won't be casting ballots themselves. jacob soboroff reports from phoenix. >> this is our group of volunteers and folks that are knocking on doors. >> nice. >> talking ability folks getting out to vote in this election. >> this year, we did register more than 150,000 new voters. and that's why this year, many think we will see many changes in the state of arizona, for the simple reason that we registered a lot of millennial voters. >> like myself, my parents, too, didn't have a voice. they were being oppressed. >> let me stop you. so you can't vote, but you are choosing to use your time to campaign? >> definitely. we're choosing our time to bring justice to our communities. >> all right, guys. let's do a quick check. everybody repeat after me. we believe. we believe. >> let's go knock on some doors.

>> i'm 16. >> 16? >> 16 years old. >> so you can't even vote either. >> yep, she can't vote either. >> 93 way. >> last time i knocked on a door, it was recently. they asked me, you're 16. you can't vote. why are you doing this? >> yeah. what did you say to them? >> i said, well, yeah, i'm doing this because you're not out here doing this. you're allowed to vote. you're not voting. that's why i'm knocking on your door. you haven't sent your ballot in. >> hey, guys. oh. that's the only time i ever made a basket. >> my name is michael. have you already sent in your ballot? >> no, i still have it here. >> you can actually ask you to put it in your mailbox now. can i walk with you to drop it off? i apologize for interrupting you. >> we came to your house. we're on your turf.

>> i'm very happy you're now putting your ballot on the mailbox because it does count, and it still counts. >> as two people who for different reasons actually can't vote, when you make contact with somebody like that, who -- >> it makes our day. that's amazing. i just got chills right now because we don't have -- i don't have the opportunity to vote. >> right. >> so for me, every vote, every vote matters. >> how about for you? >> i actually like seeing the smiles on everyone's faces when they're like, oh, my god, thank you. i'm like, you're welcome. >> msnbc's jacob soboroff with that story for us. so, let's go to arizona. joining us from phoenix, nbc news white house correspondent kristen welker, who is covering the clinton campaign. also with us from pennsylvania, msnbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing. kristen, we'll start with you. what are you hearing from the clinton campaign in the final stretch? >> well, mika, i think they are focused. they are watching these polls

get tighter as we all are. i have been talking to not only the clinton campaign but democrats on the ground and they say they're not panicking. at the same time, they're making sure that they're dotting all their is, crossing all their ts. secretary clinton was here in arizona last night. this is a reliably red state. it has 11 electoral votes. if she were to win here, it would help her to offset losses in other battleground states. it also helps her to reach not only latinos here but in other key states like florida, like nevada. and then today, of course, she's going to be in north carolina. she has two stops there. this is a critical battleground state. take a look at the polls tightening in north carolina. she has a lead, 47% to 44%. so that's a state where she feels like she needs to win. she wants to win. of course, it's a state where president obama won in 2008. lost in 2012, and there is some concern because early voting shows african-americans not turning out in the same numbers

that they did in 2012. that's why you saw president obama there yesterday with that very impassioned speech. they're also going to michigan on friday, mika. that's a reliably blue state. a lot of democrats saying why are they going to michigan? are they worried about that state? i talked to clinton campaign officials last night who said we're not worried about michigan but we can't take it for granted. remember what happened in the primary. bernie sanders pulled off the upset in michigan. they feel that's a state that potentially favors donald trump. right now, she has a lead, but she's not taking it for granted. i think that's going to be the thinking moving forward from now until election day. of course, you can't underscore enough, she has a number of top surrogates, the president, who are out there helping her make the case. he's going to be in florida today. >> joe. >> so kristen, do you have any indication on whether they're going to move away now from these traditionally red states? we had a series of polls that came out this morning. she's behind one in new hampshire, which is essentially a tie. we all realize that. the same thing in michigan.

she's up three in the latest michigan poll. essentially a tie. it may be an outlier, but who knows. pennsylvania, plus four. nevada, she's down six points in the cnn poll out yesterday. do you expect -- do you hear that yesterday may have been sort of a last foray into one of these traditionally red states? and she's going to come back and try to nail down states like north carolina? >> absolutely. one clinton top aide described it as securing a fortress. that's their thinking moving forward. that they have built up what they think is a lead in a number of these battleground states. and now they want to defend it. so north carolina, florida, florida, florida. she's going to have a number of events in florida over the weekend, from now until election day. she's going to be sending her surrogates there. pennsylvania, she really wants to win pennsylvania. does she need it? not necessarily, but if donald trump wins pennsylvania, joe, that's a game changer. so they're not taking pennsylvania for granted either, even though she's had a lead

there. again, you see the polls tightening. i talked to a number of strategists on the ground here in arizona who say they're not panicking yet. they think that part of this are the republicans coming home to donald trump. they think that largely, she has withstood that comey bombshell from last week. at the same time, the focus now is going to be on all of those battleground states she needs to win. >> chris jansing, that brings us to pennsylvania, kristen welker does, where the trump campaign is looking to gain ground. we had kellyanne conway on a few minutes ago saying pennsylvania is in play. we're putting resources, surrogates there, we're going to put the candidate there. is pennsylvania really on the board? >> well, they seem to think at least the trump campaign does, that they can certainly move the numbers. obviously, as kristen said, this would be a game changer. it's why i'm here, because melania trump is making her first ever solo campaign speech. she did seem kind of surprised when her husband told her that in an interview that they were

doing jointly. we haven't seen her much, as you know, since the convention, and there was all the controversy about whether her speech was plagiarized. why bring her to pennsylvania? for the reason kellyanne conway said. they believe suburban women are coming home. in a recent poll, the numbers have narrowed. still favors hillary clinton. outside the margin of error but getting closer. and western pennsylvania is an area where donald trump has made significant gains as he has in many other rust belt areas of other states, including neighboring ohio, places obviously of the deindustrialized economy where a lot of those working class white men in particular have been supporting donald trump so strongly. but here we are in the four counties, the four main counties that are around pennsylvania. and more than 20% of the vote state-wide is here. it's been trending democratic. a lot of democrats moving in. but here in chester county, mitt romney won, although it was very

close. so melania trump's message is going to be, first of all, that the donald trump i know is a guy who's going to help you. if you turn on the tv here as i did last night, you get all those ads that suggest in his own words that he is against women, and i'll just show you, they're expecting 2,000 to 3,000 people inside this facility. see the big screen that's set up there. they think they're going to have an overflow as well. there's a lot of interest in her, in a state where, by the way, there's no early voting. mika. >> nbc's chris jansing and kristen welker, thank you both very much. >> we have with us the news and finance anchor at yahoo, bianna golodryga. quick thought before break. do you think melania can cut through the message that i think has been very effectively sent out by the clinton campaign, especially as it pertains to women, using donald trump's own words? >> with just days left, i'm not sure if she'll be able to, especially with ads like we have seen running. the question is, and as chris brought up, can she relate that

donald trump she knows? we know she says don't feel sorry for me. i'm an independent woman. i make decisions in this household. everything i do is not because of what donald trump tells me to do. it's my own decision. she's a powerful woman. we know when she does speak publicly, she has an impact. it's been a disservice not to use her more. she has a great story, the immigrant story. a lot of people can relate to that in this country. maybe specifically not her route of coming to the country, but i'm not sure what she'll be able to accomplish in the final few days. i'm not sure her heart is in this campaign the way other trump family members' is. >> you get that feeling from her. yeah. all right, we'll see what happens today as we watch her speech. coming up, what early vote totals might tell us about how nevada might break this year. we'll take a like at the key counties. and as we go to break, here's how hillary clinton reacted to watching the cubs last night on an ipad. we're back after this.

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that the republic was at risk if they were elected. >> joining us now in milwaukee, wisconsin, author and conservative talk show host charlie sykes, who is also an msnbc contributor. and in las vegas, editor of ralston reports, and contributor editor at politico, jon ralston, good to have you both onboard. joe. >> get some individual polls i want to ask both of you about in your states that you know better than anybody. charlie, i'm really intrigued by what's going on. the never trump brigade up in wisconsin, holding firm. the walls holding firm. we're seeing polls that show a plus six for hillary clinton there. and yet, ron johnson, a guy who is not as, let's say, temperamentally smooth as paul ryan or reince priebus or scott walker, has now cut the race with russ feingold down to one point. what's going on there? >> well, it's interesting.

here's a very, very revealing number. in the milwaukee suburbs where there are a lot of republican votes, ron johnson is leading by ten points, but in that same area, hillary clinton and donald trump are tied. so ron johnson is running very considerably ahead of donald trump in the milwaukee suburbs. you know, i think this is part of the problem here, that donald trump is actually doing very well out state in the rural areas, up in the green bay market. but in the so-called wow counties where, again, which is the vote bank for republicans, he is grossly underperforming. here's another number. barack obama won wisconsin four years ago by 200,000 votes. but mitt romney got 68% in these wow counties, and donald trump needs to get the same percentage, and he is not. in fact, he's only getting about 76% of republican women. so he's got a suburban problem, a milwaukee problem, and he's got a women problem here in wisconsin. that's why he's behind. >> what is it, charlie, about the character of wisconsin, the

voters in wisconsin, that makes it different than say new hampshire, that is supposed to be a swing state that is tied up now, according to a couple polls. colorado, surprisingly, much closer than we expect. i mean, i would expect wisconsin, sort of a blue-collar state in some respects, to break for trump before, say, colorado. what's going on in wisconsin? >> well, to a certain extent, the blue-collar rural part of the state is breaking for donald trump. his problem is in the southeastern wisconsin area, which is upper income, a lot of college educated voters. a lot of republican women who were really, really turned off by that "access hollywood" video. so i do think we have, you know, the state is divided. but also, you know, look, we're kind of a midwestern state. and from april on, we have not -- there's a disconnect. there's a disconnect between donald trump's character and his

approach and what wisconsin looks for. by the way, the fact that donald trump continues to insult and fight with and war with and demean and threaten paul ryan is not helping him win in the state of wisconsin. if he was serious about winning wisconsin, he would not be having this civil war with paul ryan who is still very, very popular with republican voters here in wisconsin. >> jon, its bianna golodryga. let me ask you about the hispanic vote, otherwise known as the sleeping giant. i spent time with a political filmmaker who spent time in texas and nevada focusing specifically on the hispanic vote and whether or not this will be the year where we see them come out in droves, whether it's registration, whether it's just getting out the vote message. what are you seeing and what are you predicting happening in your state? >> i'll give you some context first. hispanic vote has been a sleeping giant that has been gradually awakening here in nevada the last few cycles. 15% of the vote overall vote in 2008. 18% in 2012.

activists out here are hoping that it gets over 20%, and the data i have seen from the turnout so far, there's been 12 days of early voting so far, shows it is getting up into that range. and of course, donald trump is getting crushed in that cohort here in nevada. it's very difficult to get a landslide loss among a fifth of the electorate and be able to win a state. there's very little margin for error. hispanics are voting in big numbers here. the democratic party here and coordinating with other groups is really turning out hispanic voters. >> john, it's willie. there was a cnn poll out yesterday that shows donald trump up six points, and an eight-point swing against hillary clinton just since october 15th. you cautioned yesterday against that number. explain why you threw a red flag on that one, and also talk a little bit, if you can, early voting there where democrats have a big lead? >> yeah, you are right. that poll is just considered a real outlier by anybody here in

either party on the ground who sees what's really happening. the biggest number in that poll that is a red flag is the number in clark county, which is las vegas, which has 142,000 more democrats than republicans. that showed trump up by one point. there is no way that that is happening. barack obama won twice here by double digits. democrats candidates state-wide almost always win by high single digits or low double digits. that's just not happening. also in that poll, there were not enough hispanics surveyed to go back to the previous point. i don't consider that a serious poll at all. and let's contrast that with what's going on, as you referred to, willie, with early voting here. the democrats had a big day again yesterday. they have 55,000 more ballots returned already in early and absentee voting than the republicans here in clark county. that's how they won here in the last two cycles, by building up that big bank of votes. and listen, most of these are partisan voters.

and data i have seen shows that hillary clinton is holding about 90% of the base. that's just death here for trump. >> okay. jon ha jon rolston and charlie sykes, thank you both very much for being on today. we're counting down the days. before we go to the next hour, we want to remind you, if you want a break from all this, just a small one, a little relief, joe's band has a gig at prohibition here in new york city tonight. it will feature the "morning joe" music of the band. you can see it also live on facebook. but it also features meacham doing what? >> reading the preamble to the constitution. dramatic. >> there's your break. >> also, i think more importantly, willie, what we're excited about is he's going to actually read a letter from the french and indian war from a third -- from a third lieutenant to his estranged second cousin.

about a water rights issue on their property. >> wow. >> we call it the braddock. it's going to be great, man. get ready. >> and you have your american flag boxers. fantastic. 8:00, the music starts. that does it for us this morning. what a bad mental image. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. hurry. >> thank you so much, mika. hey, there. i'm stephanie ruhle. this morning, so much to cover. the tightening. new battleground polling just in. ready for this? new hampshire, tied. colorado, tied. nevada, donald trump is up. the race now closer than ever. rallying the bases. hillary clinton in arizona, speaking to her biggest crowd of the campaign. >> this state is in play for the first time in years. >> as donald trump rides his newfou