states congress. i want to give you an open shot, like in boxing, what are you going to miss in this business? >> not you. >> thank you. thank you. i don't mind that. >> new polls to tell you about. mtp daily start right now. >> yes, it's thursday. campaign excitement is in the air. just five days until arica decides. >> tonight traveling interstate 270. how where the candidates have been shows where they think they are going. >> five days away from the change you have been waiting for. >> plus, can hillary clinton break down the big red gop wall? we got new polls from georgia, texas and arizona. >> so for the first time, we have a real chance to turn this state blue again.

>> and mitch mcconnell has a new plan to save his job as majority leader, embrace trump. this is "mtp daily" and it starts right now. >> good evening, i'm chuck todd here at election headquarters in new york city. and welcome to "mtp daily," with five days to go, the campaign trail is hoping. trump went nuclear, though, claiming clinton will somehow be indicted t. clinton campaign put out their own hit list on trump's various insults. we got nbc news battleground polls hot off the presses. we will dive into all of that for a moment. but first, let's begin with a bigger look at this race t. race, of course is about getting to 270. yes, ad dollars matter. the presidential contests are

won or lost on the ground. for that reason, the campaign blitzed the battleground, including events in iowa, pennsylvania, melania stumped for the first time. trump finished in north carolina. democrats had events in wisconsin. obama spoke twice in florida. sanders in ohio, clinton in north carolina. both side brought out the biggest guns they can bring out. >> this isn't a joke. this isn't "survivor" this isn't the bachelorette. this counts. >> if she were to win, it would create unprecedented constitutional crisis. >> if donald trump were to win this election, we would have a commander in ev ciao who is scompleetly out of his depth and whose ideas are incredibly dangerous. >> so, what do you think the stakes are for this election? >> just small, huh, if you

listen to trump and clinton there. geeze, anyway. presence cuts through all the spin because it shows you what these campaigns care about and where they think they're as a resultner annu result vulnerable. trump is an unconditional candidate, his schedule hasn't been untraditional. he's blitzed all the traditional battleground, making more than 20 stops each e each in florida, pennsylvania, ohio and north cloip. it's for good reason. he has to win every single states just to get into the game. you can't think about 270 until he sweeps those four states. he made fewer stops in places where clinton held consistent leads, like virginia or the big blue wall of wisconsin and michigan. he will likely need to break through somewhere in the upper mid-west to win. he's made fewer stops in colorado, new hampshire and iowa. here are the states he's barely visited. which includes placed they

boasted about they wanted to put in play, deep blue connecticut, new jersey and illinois. trump had to made i make a few pit stops in traditionally red states to try to shore up support like in arizona, even texas and don't forget about his stop in battleground mexico. now, now new mexico, the visit to mexico. mike pence has been to utah. now let's go to the clinton map. his map screams one thing. florida, florida, florida. she is from the sun shooempb state, winning more than 20 times since the convention. her next most visited states looks a lot like trumps. there has been a lot of nevada and iowa with clinton and rounding out our peak map of travel is a mix of offense and some defense. there has been the traditional battlegrounds like new hampshire and colorado, there's red arizona which is possibly in play, despite only going blue once since 1948 and then of course blue michigan, where the trump campaign is hoping to pull an upset.

clinton and trump have run polar opposite campaigns. but they both at least seem to agree where to travel t. path goes through florida, 000, pennsylvania and north carolina. they are the most visited battle ground states for both side by far. the schedule never lies. i am joined by two folks who know about battleground blitzes and why the schedules do tell us something. sarah fagan a cnbc contributor and campaign strategist to the 2004 bush relay and bill burton, the national press secretary and with priorities usa which was the presidential campaign's super pac for obama if 2012. welcome to both of you. so the company schedule, sarah, it is obviously, i always we heard this, there's one thing you can never get more of. that's the candidate's time. the schedule is king. these schedules have been pretty traditional.

>> they have been traditional t. trump folks are smart. they know you got to win florida. >> that is the most important state for him. he looks reasonably strong or perhaps slightly ahead in ohio. then of course that gets harder for him. florida and then pennsylvania most likely. that's probably the best path for trump to claim the electoral college victory. although that looks tough in my view. but his schedule reflects that. >> bill, when you make a decision as a campaign to go to a state that hasn't been in the battleground state, say michigan, wisconsin, virginia within it comes to the clinton-kain campaign, you know you will take some heat when that announcement gets made. why would you do that this late in the game? >> well, there's a variety of reasons you'd go into these states right now. even if you have a significant lead. for example, you know in pennsylvania where clinton has shown some strength. they don't have early voting.

so her going to pennsylvania or tim kaine or the surrogates going there later in the game makes sense to make sure you are shoring up your base. because everywhere you go, you likely end up on the front page of the newspaper, if you look at the front page of the arizona republic today, it's a strong front page for hillary clinton. you dominate local news coverage and your support gross. at the clinton campaign, they're clutching information and getting those folks out to vote. do big events matter even this late in the game? particularly in the competitive battle grounds. >> i'm glad you brought up that point, i was transitioning. sarah, we have seen plenty of reports the trump campaign will hold a great rally, pass out all of these volunteer card, things like that. and then you hear they forget to check them. or they don't go. i guess it is that has been up with of these cases where you see just as the trump campaign

is picking up momentum, i have been accumulating these little ane anecdotes about ground game issues. where is that going to cost them? is that a point in florida, a half opoint in north carolina? >> yeah, i think it's, donald trump ends up losing these key battle grounds by a point or a half a point, he's going to wish he never said that the data infrastructure was overrated. look. there are real reasons he's behind clinton on this. the republican primary is long di visive. he didn't become the nominee until late. if fact is she has more time and invested more heavily in a ground game. i think for donald trump to win a state like. >> holly or pennsylvania, it's not good enough to be tied he's got to be up a point or two, maybe as much as two points because democrats billed in the obama victory, they have better

infrastructure tan republicans, by deposition, you have a commander in chief sitting in the white house at your party. >> bill, one of the things we've noticed here. it's not surprising you started to do it in '08.2 and when you hold a rally say in late october in florida t. clinton campaign has been planning them as close to an early polling location as they k. i saw it in north carolina. the trump campaign hasn't been doing that as much. maybe that just goes to inexperience on the ground. >> right, it's a big problem, the clinton campaign like the obama campaign before it is very focused on the actual mechanics of voting. what do people need to do to get their ballots, to get to the polling place and make sure their vote is counted. making sure there is transportation, having organized, i remember in '08, we had people organize marches from the rallies over to the early voting locations. you know, robbie the campaign manager on the clinton campaign

is one of the geniuses in field in the whole country. i think donald trump is a little late to the game and is doing his best to catch up. it's things like that thinking about the mechanics, how do you collect the information in how do you analyze the data that you have. it all matters, like sarah was saying. if you have places a half point or one point or two points away, that can really make the difference. >> we talk about surrogates matter a lot t. surrogates that the democrats have versus the trub ticket. there hasn't been a comparison, because trump has not had party elders wanting to be a part of this but he did finally have his spouse out today campaigning on her own. let me play an excerpt of her speech today in philadelphia. >> you have to find a better way to talk to each other to disagree with each other, to respect each other. we must find better ways to

honor and support the basic goodness of o children especially in social media. >> what i found interesting is they have her do a speech when i think what they need is they need retail campaign and it seems to be that that is something that is another deficit of the trump campaign, part of it could be because the republican party elders haven't been too fond. it's not like you have the obamas helping the clintons. we don't have the bushes and the romneys helping the trumps. >> i think having melania regardless of the event is definitely net positive for mr. trump. she is graceful and elegant. she definitely softens him up and her speech while it's gotten some ridicule because of the nature of talking about bullying and cyber stalking and so forth. she is right about, got criticism. >> was that maybe the wrong campaign to be putting out that

message? >> well, i mean, there's all kind of analogies on twitter, bernie madoff's wife, so forth t. reality is she's right and she's lovely and el gnt and donald trump should have her on the campaign trail every day doing as many events as she is willing to do. >> how much advantage thooung do you think this is, for obamas, bidens and a clinton spouse and trump is basically been going it alone. he gets, he's gotten guiliani, sometimes he has christie. though not anymore. some are not as effective as they used to be. >> back a long time ago, i was john kerry's mid-west communications director and that meant that we would organize all the different folks who on a campaign that sarah beat us on, by the way, was surrogates would come through, you could try to get local press in iowa, minnesota, wisconsin. if you didn't have a ted kennedy or a real major surrogate come out for you, you couldn't get

major press on it. the fact that hillary clinton can bring the president, the first lady, vice president and on and on and donald trump has only been using himself and not melania, it's a huge advantage for clinton. i agree with sarah, the more melania is out on the trail, probably the better it is for trump. i think they were smart to send her to a place like pennsylvania where there are a lot of voters that i think she might appeal to but it's pretty late in the game to start to do that. >> it's awfully late, exactly. >> it's late in the game. we'll see how big of an impact it has. >> i will leave it there. sarah tag ban, bill burrton. appreciate it. coming up, can hillary clinton break through in some of the reddest of is that its? two weeks ago they role really thought they could. we will see states turning pink, not quite blue. stay tuned. can a toothpaste do everything well?

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>> welcome back. we teased at the top, we have

brand-new wall street maris polls, the borderline states, we got interesting results. we will share those with you in a minute. we also checked in on texas, because there hadn't been a good actual solid poll in texas in a long time. here's what we found. we had trump leading. johnson and stein combined a percent. a nine-point lead for trump, right now smaller than a 16-point win that romney grabbed texas with in 2012. something to keep in mind and when i show you this next poll from california, we'll go from the biggest red state in terms of electoral to the biggest blue state. so a new online poll conducted by the field research, who used to be the preeminent phone poll in california, they have clinton with a 20-point lead over trump in california. 53-33. perhaps the bigger news from this poll is they have clinton leading trump all over the place, including in

traditionally republican strong holds like orange county. but there's something else hire want you to keep an eye on, on election night. taken together, these numbers out of texas and california highlight what demographics are telling us. many of the deep blue states are getting blueer. in some of the bicker red states, might be getting pinker. trump may pete is in more of the battleground than mitt romney did. consider this we could end up in a place where trump wins more electoral votes than romney's 206 but he could perform worse in the popular vote. if you look at texas, that tells you, he will not get the big margins. clinton will get ginormous margins in california. coming up, new numbers from arizona and georgia. both states still competitive. we'll be right back. rsuit of he. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by

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street journal" maris poll from arizona and georgia. it is that its that democrats have been talking about putting into play tore a decade now, first arizona, hillary clinton appeared at a huge rally last night. trump at 45, clinton at 40. thanks, to our likely voter model. gary johnson, of course governor of neighboring new mexico is below 10%. compare that to early september. trump widened his lead a bit. as you can see, it's third party candidates that have gone away. >> that may be helping trump more than anything, clinton's best shot is in gary johnson gets into double digits. now to georgia. here it is neck and neck. democrats have been eager to capitalize on these demographic changes in go. and north carolina. right now, though, trump is ahead of clinton in a three-way race. we have johnson at 8. jill stein, by the way is not on the ballot.

now we'll see what this means. we're aseouling an african-american electorate of 30%. that's what keep georgia very close t. question is will african turnout and the american electorate equal that:30% number. >> that will tell us how accurate this poll is. if you can't wait another five days for this race to be over, you might be in luck when it comes to nevada. over 611,000 people voted. they are outpacing republicans. >> that data detect e collected and tabulated by target smart. our friend and nevada guru thinks we might know if the race is basically done when early voting ends tomorrow night. all of it is based out on turnout in one critical county. what does he mean here? austin us austin joins me.

myeople are intrigued when you said you can call nevada after tomorrow night. what makes you so confident? >> well, i'm not that confident. you know how we pundits are, we talk more confidently than we r. listen, there will be two-third, charge county is a hugely democratic county the democrats build up this firewall in terms of early votes and absentee ballots return. they have a 55,000 vote lead right now in that county. they're hoping to get it up above 60 maybe closer to 70 in 2012 when it was 70,000, barack obama won by seven points. all the data i seen indicates if they get it up above 60 to 65 or so, based on what's going on in whatshaw county, reno, it will be almost impossible for donald trump to win nevada unless something changes today or tomorrow. >> where is he underperforming?

>> i'm not so much he is under performing as the democrats nominate in nevada. they have this clark county bastion. they have the harry reid democratic party machine. but there is one thing going on that i have been able to pick up on that's going on some other places too, i think, chuck, which is that hillary clinton is holding the democratic base and maybe higher numbers in some cases than barack obama did. trump is hemorrhaging republicans. there's one other thing, too, i think is interesting that's going on, truck. independents, about 20% of the electorate here. they went for romney by some number of points. maybe they went to obama for a few points if 2012. they are leaning towards the democrats now. they are much less white than they were in the past. those voters and significant numbers i think are going against trump. >> let me ask you one last question t. mormon vote in nevada. it's bigger than most other

states outside of utah and arizona. how much of a problem is that for trump? are you seeing any evidence that mormons are crossover for clinton or not voting or looking for a third alternative? >> gary johnson is on the battle here. some mormons will vote for gary johnson. not a lot because of his performance and some of his views are not going to comport by there's. it's clear mormons feel the same way as mormons in utah. they don't like trump. does that mean they will vote for hillary clinton? some will. many will not. every one that doesn't vote for trump hurts him. >> we will besh everybody will be refreshing the ralston flash tomorrow night to get that final analysis from you on the early vote out there. thank you, sir. >> thanks, chuck. let me bring in the panel for the evening and the managing editor for "time" magazine, and chairman of the florida republican party. editor and publisher of the

"nation." welcome to all of you. i will ask you this only because i see a lot of other republicans going, suddenly never trump going to trump. >> right. >> where are you today? >> i'm not there. if we are going to rebuild the party, we can't be too critical of each other, but, you know, i don't see many going to hillary. i thoughted their be more of. that so that's encouraging in terms of rebuilding the party. but yeah, there's a lot of pressure at the end. i think some of this. have you felt more pressure lately? >> i have. not so much from others. i think by now people know where i am, have left me alone. i think it's more of the renewed fbi investigation, republicans are saying, we will have to deal with a lot of distraction, maybe this isn't an election about who's the least worst candidate and maybeonald trump is it and plus he's wearing our colors. so some of that is happening.

but i think that the main reason he's surged before this fbi thing were twofold, one, gary johnson's dropped a lot. i think he has been the beneficiary of most of it. surprisingly the undecideds have been cut in half in the three weeks, he's received a huge share. >> i think you are exactly right. clinton got to 48 a lot sooner than trump got to where he's at. let's say he's at 49 he's only just gotten there. i think whatever johnson-stein vote, she grabbed it after the third debate. >> i think you are rate, here favorabilities have gone up since september and that's basically the debates and his are about the same but they've gone down a little bit. so obviously it's different state-to-state, but i do feel as though the real balances the ""access hollywood"" and that drama hurt him as much or more than the e-mail drama has been

hurting her. >> katrina do you buy what we are seeing is a comey effect or not? or do you think we would have soon it there is a natural people make their choice? >> natural, coming together at the end of this very, very long season. >> a long drive. >> it may be over. the problem is it won't be over. we will be in new terrain. what strikes me, todd, we are talking horse racing polls. it's important, it's stung how little attention to policy has been. i think the report of respected news, a monitoring organization came up with a study the other day showing the three main network evening broadcast devoted 32 minutes to attention to policy. i think that plays a role. i have to say. in their closing arguments, you see donald trump. he's going to be the change candidate. it isn't any establishment year. he keeps sting on his lines, because he's tracking grievance,

not policy. hillary clinton wants to say i'm historic. but she even has 64,000 good policies, many of them good, not all. but she's having a hard time leaning away from trump isn't fit. >> i'm going to say, i'm glad you brought it. being in the media is a past time. you cover the campaign that's there, not the one that you want sometimes. i say is that because trump, look at how trump and clinton are closing. they're not closing on policy, tears not one policy you are closing on. >> they pay attention to policy an not enough to motion and character. we've seen cable news, cnn tracked $1 billion in gross profits, not because they couldn't do more substance. they gave virtually at the beginning of the race to donald trump. his ratings and revenue. >> look, i hear you there. both campaigns are fought running on policy. she is in the closing on policy. >> because she's the one who

loves policy and has the, you know, has 120,000 word on the website, except they made a calculation trump's fitness for office was the much better strategy. it isn't that she doesn't care about it or doesn't want to talk about it. i do think it's tricky. if you have one candidate that would like to talk about policy until the cows come home. the other isn't in that space, how do you even approach that? >> some of the conversations have been had in the gop camp is shut down as too risky. she's a double of richard nixon. smart, capable, experience, with ever trick up her sleeves. secretive. people are looking, saying, woer, let's not do that, our guys like richard nixon. donald trump's got five days to go. he's not there. the only way for him to be there is to take some risks. now where's the vote going to come from? people are mot moving from where

they're from, the voters. except on the side, on the gary johnson three or four left. this election is about characters, way too late to be a policy. >> it's been a character for six months. you are sticking around the rest of the show, still ahead. i want to check in on missouri. it's been a wild political year in missouri. it's not really a part of the presidential battleground. you got a senate race that will be about the fight for control. it will be determined there. and a crazy governor's race that's very close. donald trump, by the way, touting new trouble for hillary clinton and her foundation. pete williams, though, will join me next to separate fact from fiction on the latest rumors and innuendo regarding the fbi. stay tuned.

>> we are calling about that credit score card.

the fbi agents say their investigation is likely to yield an indictment. reports also show the political leadership at the department of justice is trying to protect hillary clinton and is interfering with the fbi's criminal investigation. >> so donald trump today is hoping to capitalize on a bunch of rough headlines for the clinton campaign. the "wall street journal" reported last night on a supposed view over pursuing the investigation into the clinton foundation and that's separately, they said this,

quote, officials at the justice department headquarters sent a message to all the offices involved to stand down on investigating the foundation. also late last night, citing two sources inside the fbi. fox news reported an indictment was quote likely in the clinton foundation case. the fox news anchor bret baier who broke that story walked back that reporting a bit today. >> i pressed these sources again and again, what would happen? i bought the to the end of that and said they have a lot of evidence that would likely lead to an indictment. but that's not, that's inartfully answered. that's not the process. >> that itself not how you do it. >> which was what we were all about to explain there. fox is standing by its reporting that there is a 99% chance that at least five foreign intelligence actions breached clinton's private server. so, when it comes to the fbi and the justice department, there is one person to go to to find out what goes on here, our chief

justice correspondent, pete, let's walk through the story that claims there is a feud inside the fbi and fbi injustice over pursuing the checkpoint foundation case. first of all, what is the status of the fbi investigation into the clinton foundation? >> reporter: there really isn't one, few want to calm it an investigation. that's a term of art in the fbi. there was an initial inquiry that was opened a couple months ago based largely on media reports and a book called "clinton cash." there were some initial things done in that. the fbi officials tell me there's been virtually no movement on that case for the last several months. so this idea that there are indictments near or something like that i am told is just not true. >> on the second one, this idea that the server that the clinton home server was that they know for certain that it was breached be aat least five different foreign entities, that would be big news if true, correct? >> reporter: indeed, so.

and i am told that there is no such view. comey said in july that he announced no charges should be filed. he said that there were sign osf attempted breaches into the computer and that they couldn't -- they simply can't say for sure whether it was breached. they say if it was, it could have been the type that could have signs. they found no positive proof of successful hacks. >> i'm curious how the fbi is handling the fact there is all sorts of leaks and innuendo percolating all over. they are totally overhe'd v heated and hyped. does the fbi think at some point considering how much a role they perhaps are playing right now inadvertently in this campaign that if that is the case they, themselves, should put out more word on that?

>> on the "journal" story, it's not surprising. it's certainly true the case agents working the case and headquarters and the justice department disagreed and there were some pretty strong feelings. now, that's not unusual in these cases, i think about the boston marathon bombing, the omar mateen case. there are lots of times when field agents think if main justice would let us go, we could do this. so that's not unusual. but i don't think you will hear anything in the next few days. >> are they comfortable with all this innuendo based on fbi sources? >> well, they don't like it certainly. they don'tably the answer is to come out and say anything. i think many of the guys said enough last friday. >> i guess. pete williams, in our walk newsroom, pete, thank you very much. we'll have more "mtp daily" ahead. >> thanks, we had stocks closing lower across the board. the dow sink 29 points.

the nasdaq dropping 47. shares of starbucks are higher t. company reported revenue and earnings that beat estimates. same store sales were up by 4%. timeings, first time jobless claims rose to near three-month high last week claims remain below the level associated with a healthy labor market. the report comes one day after the government's closely watched jobs da that. that's it from cnbc, first in business world wide. this is humira. this is humira helping to relieve my pain and protect my joints from further damage. this is humira helping me go further. humira works for many adults. it targets and helps to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to ra symptoms. humira has been clinically studied for over 18 years. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened,

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>> five days out from election day, it's anyone's guess who would control the senate's next term. it seemed like democrats were favored. now i'm not sure. more on that and mitch mcconnell's strategy. one seat they may mid is missouri. that our race of the day. this contest puts roy blunt against a young candidate.

he is getting hit on ties to big tobacco and his relationship with lobbyist himself. monmouth had a poll out just yesterday that has blunt clipging to a one-point lead the closest it's been all year. one thing that sets missouri apart with close races is donald trump is outperforming the republican senate candidate, according to monmouth, trump is winning 96% of republicans. blunt 90%. it's no surprise, blunt is now playing to the republican base to the trump base actually. joining me now to try to physical out what's going on in missouri is city star columnist steve kratz ki, it is interesting, it's not a battle ground it could close pre-comey, it's leaning red federal ways these days. but both the senate and governors race are incredibly competitive and democrats are

surprisingsingly on the presidential level. what's happening? >> it's interstate shock. by all means, outsiders are the story as they have been so much across the country. that's the donald trump story, obviously. the outsider in the u.s. senate race is the democrat jason kander. he isn't so much of an outsider. he's a four-year secretary of state, a three-term state law maker. but he's 35-years-old and that gets him sort of a bearing continuenence of someone who's different. someone coming at this from the outside. roy blunt as you just mentioned, obviously, a long-time insider in missouri, a long-standing career in the u.s. house of representatives, followed up by his single term now in the u.s. senate and if it's the year of the outsider, it's not a good year for someone like roy blunt, who again has been the consummate insider for so many years. >> so could it be that trump joe witters who are wanting to

essentially throw the molotov cocktail at washington, is that why blunt is under performing trump? >> i think that begins to get at it and blunt being such an insider in this strange year, missouri is like this outsider thing will talk about the governor's race in just a moment and in that race, the outsider is making up very strong push in a race that's virtually deadlocked here. you know the state's very simple in terms of how it breaks down, chuck as you well know the two big things go democratic. the rest of the state is bright red on the election map. it's looking very red now in our state missouri that monmouth poll had trump up by 14 points, chuck. >> let me just ask you this, this one out question. which is i guess i feel like missouri is becoming a more reliable state on the presidential level. but clearly it still is competitive down the ballot. is that something, is that a, is

that a statement about the state democratic party and the state republican party? is this simply a coincidence or a black swan type thing? what is happening below the radar here? >> chuck, it's a statement, on the missouri republican party. republicans are getting decimated cycle after cycle by these very competitive primaries we've had out here, including the one this year for governor on the republican side a four-way, very strong four candidates fighting it out in the primary here. and those primaries have been under cutting, under mining republican candidates state wide, now, going back a number of years. they've got to figure that out going forward, as has been the case in so many states, the democrats are the disciplined ones, now, suddenly in missouri. >> well, it sound like what's happening in missouri inside the republican party is similar to what's happening here in washington inside the republican party. steve kratzee, good to see you.

>> thank you, shair. up next, why i'm obsessed with the number 7. stay tuned. ♪ [beeping] take on any galaxy with a car that could stop for you. simulation complete. the new nissan rogue. rogue one: a star wars story. in theaters december 16th.

>> now, tonight my exception is with the seven-game series. obviously, the most thrilling way to wrap up any championship. what if anything could be decided the way? how about a best of seven? never mind, seriously, cominging off the excitement of the nail biting world series game. i have been obsessed with trying to figure out, who should we

credit with the genius of game seven. who invented the seven-game series. the answer, one of the original national team owners of the then new york giants, john t. brush. the format was one of the so-called brush rules adopted in 1905 after he blocked the championship games, at the time he refused his giants who played boston, because he thought the american league was inferia, duh, still is. the next year under his rule, his team played the philadelphia athletics in the second world series. giants won in game five. first series to actually go to brush's seven-game ending was in 1909. pittsburgh pirates beat the detroit tigers in their first championship of the mlb era. a decade later, there was a brief flirtation with a nine-game series. it lasted three years. probably for the best. i don't think chicago or cleveland fans could have handled even more games and certainly not chatman or andrew

millers, their arms are about to fall off. anyways, thank you, mr. brush, for game seven. we'll be right back. hillary clinton: i'm hillary clinton and i approve this message. vo: in times of crisisy leadership. donald trump: "knock the crap out of them, would you? seriously..."vo: clear thinking... donald trump: "i know more about isis than the generals do, believe me." vo: and calm judgment. donald trump: "and you can tell them to go fu_k themselves." vo: because all it takes is one wrong move. donald trump audio only: "i would bomb the sh_t out of them." vo: just one.

welcome back to "the lid." the panel is back. nancy gibbs, al carllenas. i was really intrigued today by something from mitch mcconnell. we do not have footage of it, but he was campaigning across the state of kentucky last night and basically gave whais for mcconnell, his first real endorsement of trump. he's always said he's going to vote for him, but he said this. we need a new president. donald trump to be the most powerful republican in america. you know, nancy, he's -- this is mitch mcconnell, who has not been comfortable with trump the whole time, i think, has always viewed him as the guy who's going to cost him his senate majority leader title, now he thinks, maybe the only shot of keeping that title is to embrace him. >> and if he keeps it, maybe, in fact, he'll be the most powerful republican --

>> and he may be thinking that way. >> what i think he's thinking is he doesn't like the idea of being a senate minority leader. and the way to keep a majority is to have donald trump do better in a number of states, where the fault line is such that our candidates may not win -- >> it makes sense, politically. you look at the segment i just did about missouri. blunt is underperforming trump. and you look at, you know, pat toomey is in a box, because he needs those philly suburbs, but needs a big turnout. >> blunt, i think, is underperforming, because he's viewed as the establishment candidate. that is a more republican state. and mcconnell, i think, is desperate to get on the change and any establishment bandwagon. good luck. >> but i'm curious, al, because you've been, you know, pretty never-trump. and you have some others. and then there's been this late sort of, okay, let's embrace trump. but if he loses, do all these people -- what do they do with the stand of trump now? >> you know, it depends on trump. talking about this tv he might do, he might want to lead the effort to take over the rnc and

other state parties. folks are talking about that. at one point, i thought, you know, he kind of banished, because he'll lose by five, six, seven points. doesn't seem to be the case. i think this election may get a little closer. i don't know if we can get above 230 votes. >> that's what's interesting. suddenly -- i'm with you, al, i think a lot of republicans who thought they were getting ready the to rebuild the party, your mitt romney and ryans, trump world believes they should not only have a seat at that table, but run the table. >> they should be the builders. if that's what they want to do. the theory about, they have a completely different plan. we have absolutely no way of knowing. this is not a team that has been laying that groundwork for decades. so, it's hard to say. he consider every step, every breath he takes, trump seems to be reducing the coalition. i mean, it's rousing a base, but it's not building in new voters and new coalitions.

>> but who will own this -- somebody -- if trump walks away, somebody is still going to represent this piece. >> i think there'll be a civil war. this is conventional wisdom. i think there'll be a civil war. i think paul ryan will preside over a much more extreme husk of a house. >> you're assuming ryan can get the votes to be speaker. which i don't know. >> i think the senate is vital for hillary clinton. i mean, she will be one of the few first-term democratic presidents to come in without control of the house and the senate. and if she's going to be able to govern, she's going to need a senate to take back a court and maybe executive actions, as obama learned in the second term, because mitch mcconnell wanted to take him down, day one. >> well, george h.w. bush is the last first-term president to come in with having the party, the other party controlling both. that does make your first term hard. >> yeah, it does. because, frankly, 70% of what you get to do, you do in the first six months of your first year in office. >> and george h.w. bush was a

one-term president. >> and it also depends on what chuck schumer thinks about nuclear options and other tactics in the senate. >> oh, i think we're headed the to a nuclear option, no matter what. >> let's hope we're not headed to nuclear war. that's a different discussion. >> that's a different discussion. we'll leave it there. you guys are great. nancy, al, katrina, good to see you all. after the break, the state to watch next tuesday night or maybe wednesday morning, here's a hint. i cannot see it from my house. stay tuned. when it comes to healthcare, seconds can mean the difference between life and death.

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i've never liked marijuana. but i'm voting yes on prop 64 to legalize marijuana for adults 21 and over. it has important safeguards for families,

like strict product labeling and child-proof packaging of all marijuana products. and banning edibles that would appeal to a child. raising a teenager, that regulated system makes a lot more sense than what we have now. plus, 64 taxes marijuana to fund priorities like after-school programs. personally, marijuana's not for me. but my mind's made up. i'm voting yes on 64.

well, in case you missed it, there might be a sleeper toss-up state, one that will probably get called once we probably all go to sleep too early on election night, it's alaska. that's right, alaska. could it be a closely contested state this year? let's make the case. the last frontier has only voted democratic once since achieving statehood in 1959. but hear me out. here's why alaska could be competitive this cycle. first of all, native alaskans make up 15% of the state's population and the state's largest native organization endorsed hillary clinton. it's the group's first-ever political endorsement. two, another demographic note. about 25% of white alaskans do have college degrees. more than in ohio and iowa. that would be a positive potentially for clinton. next, both the trump campaign and the johnson campaign missed the deadline to get their biographies in the voter pamphlet that gets sent to every single registered voter. that's right, donald trump forgot that. so their information is only on the online version, but not what came into houses.

and the third party vote could matter in alaska big-time this year. vp nominee bill weld stumped for his running mate last week in anchorage. polls have had johnson as high as 18% last month. and a live telephone poll last week had clinton up in alaska by four points. folks, we're not ready to throw alaska into the toss-up pile, we have it in lean republican for now. but we're telling you the state might be worth staying up late on tuesday night/wednesday morning just to check it out. could be interesting. that's all we have for tonight. "with all due respect," though, starts right now. i'm john heilemann. >> and i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to people out there making political predictions, you ain't got nothing on this guy. >> sure as god made green apples, some day, the chicago cubs are going to be in the world series. that may be sooner than we think.