good evening, i'm chris matthews in washington. with just days to go, donald trump and hillary clinton are making their final pushes to drive out voters, today neither candidate was seen cruising on the high road. >> putin has no respect for hillary clinton. he dreams, he dreams of her becoming president. you know who else dreams of hillary clinton? isis. she always talks about me. see, what i have is a winning temperament. i have a winning temperament. hillary's an unstable person. >> donald stood on a stage and said -- and i quote -- i'm honored to have the greatest temperament that anyone's ever had. [ laughter ] he knows we can see and hear him, right? his instinct is to say whatever pops into his head, no matter how wrong he is.

he can't help himself. is this someone we want to put in charge of our military? >> you take the high road? no, you take the high road. making a rare appearance on the campaign trail today, melania trump today gave her first speech since the republican national convention. she told a crowd up in pennsylvania that as first lady she will focus on advocating for women and children, she called for combatting meanness in our culture and she vouched for her husband. let's watch. >> he love this is country and he knows how to get things done, not just talk. he certainly knows how to shake things up, doesn't he? make america great again is not just some slogan it is what has been in his heart since the day i met him. every time my husband learned of a factory closing in ohio or north carolina or here in pennsylvania/saw him get very upset. he could see what was happening.

he saw the problems. and he always talked about how he could fix them. >> also today, we learned on the eve of the election, the eve itself, monday, three days from now, hillary clinton will join her husband bill, their daughter chelsea and both president obama and michelle obama at a big rally monday evening in philadelphia and we will be there to cover that for a couple of hours. joining me right now, "time" magazine contributor jane newton small, we've missed you. former republican national committee chairman michael steele, we're used to you, and author ron reagan. i want you to tell me your political noses. i'll start with you, michael. does your nose tell you -- i can tell on thursday before an election i can tell which way the wind is blowing and i don't think there's any velocity or direction but people are telling me it's in trump's direction. how do you read the wind right now? >> i would read the wind that way and the objective or information i can rely on is the

car on the way to the airport, i was talking to the driver and he was going on about hillary and i'm thinking this guy is a hillary supporter, he's a minority voter and at the end he turns around and goes "at the end of the day i can't trust her so i think i'm voting for trump." and that kind of momentum i was like -- startled because it confirms for me that trump has tapped into this late energy. the problem he's going to have, chris, is with lack of organization on the ground, lack of real focus on the key battleground states until just recently, whether he can turn that vote out, the voter that was driving the car this morning can get him to the polls, that's going to be his real test. >> jane, you heard the word "him." i heard the word "him." >> it was a college educated -- >> i get it. that's a focus group of a guy. but here we have to ask about women because i keep hearing college educated women with the best voters in the country,

meaning they show up and they'll show up this week because of their ambitions, aspirations and attitude towards people trying to stymie those aspirations. >> that's been hillary clinton's firewall, college educated white women who are turning out in larger numbers than anticipated for her. they just love her, that's who she is trying to turn out. >> explain why they like her for the people going over a-b-cs here. why would a woman, a professional woman who goes to work in the morning and deals with men at work, why would that person be for hillary clinton? >> well, i mean, and, again, we're talking about a subset of college educated white women who don't like donald trump, don't like his rhetoric, don't relate to him but also want to see the first female president. they like the idea of a woman. they understand -- they can relate to hillary. they can see themselves to some degree in hillary, especially the older women and they've seen her over years and years and years change as they have changed.

>> ron, do you have a sense -- everybody does their anecdotal polling, we all do it, my -- i just don't sense any direction, i hear everybody saying trump, i heard michael say it, i don't know if it's true but i do think this is a weird weekend coming up. there's no win direction. where do the undecideds go? >> that's a very good question and who could be undecided at this point? we've had this conversation before during presidential elections where it gets down to the last few days and there's still a sizable percentage of the electorate who's undecided and you think how can you possibly at this point not -- >> there are probably people at least 5% that said what did you think of reagan? i don't know. after obama there's probably 5% that say i don't know. but just remember when the allies and the free french army went into paris liberating the country from the german occupation, there were people lying with their towels along

the seine sunbathing. they weren't interested. there are people that just aren't political. >> war? what war? >> what are those tanks doing here? what's the action about today? well, they say there's a war going on. give me a break. [ laughter ] your thoughts, ron. >> i think you're right that the wind is swirling at the moment. if you look at the polls and the polling sites like five thirty-eight and the rest of them, it does seem like the race is tightening and you have to ask yourself the question why. why are we having this conversation? why aren't we talking about the coming hillary clinton administration -- >> because everybody doesn't live in seattle, ron. >> i suppose that's true. i suppose that's true, yeah. or new york or chicago or san francisco or los angeles. >> in their speech today in the suburbs of philly melania trump chose an interesting area to focus on. this seems to be the thing to talk about now, the rise of cyber bullying and the meanness

of our culture, let's watch melania. >> like anything that is powerful it can have a bad side. we have seen this already. as adults many of us are able to handle mean words, even lies. children and teenagers can be fragile. they are hurt when they are made fun of or made to feel less in looks or intelligence. this makes their life hard and can force them to hide and retreat. our culture has gotten too mean and too rough, especially to children and teenagers. >> okay, jane, and then i want to hear michael because michael knows this as well as any of us. why do all the ads at the end, i watched the world series last night, it was a great game, really great game, baseball looked good, i love the dugout shots.

why is it always nasty at the end? i'm watching these ads here luann bennett, nasty, nasty, nasty. two women going at each others in a tilley. >> that's what works. polling has showed going negative works. you can't do it for a long amount of time. the power of going negative works at the end and that's why everybody does it but i think -- i wanted to give you my analogy of the boat thing. i feel like hillary is -- we're just short of the finish line, hillary's boat is stalled and she's bailing out water and donald trump the wind is coming up behind him but the wind is letting out of the sails so they're both frantically paddling to get over the finish line. >> i'm going to make a point here that trump is such a but thatted candidate, we all agree with that, michael, you're included, that there must have

been something behind that message he tapped into. you can talk about the racial part as a part of it, the ethnic prejudice part of it but there's a powerful message of dissatisfaction with the elites in this country that showed itself all through the republican primaries, all the guys looked like bozos and they're not but they looked weak because the party record is weak in the republican party, it doesn't have strength or belief left in it and the democratic party has been so complacent it hasn't made its case. hillary talks about being for women and children. those are good values but nothing -- no lift of a driving dream coming out of the democratic message machine, nothing that i can see. just think if trump were a good candidate. just think if he were clean and selling what he's been selling, your thoughts. >> to that point, chris, i go back to my driver this morning who when i asked him why said because i think trump will help me with my business. that economic message, which was

the beginning salvo from the trump campaign resonated and still resonates and if we -- that's in a new ad. go ahead. >> if we had not had entered into the land of crazy for the last 11 months and this was as you said a campaign that was focused on, yes, defining washington but going beyond washington in a way that people felt their futures were going to be helped by his administration this would be a different race right now. >> ron, what do you feel about the voters? i know you don't like trump, most people i know don't, either but what is your feeling about the voter? in the latest polling by the "washington post," the race is within two points, back and forth, almost even, it seems like if crap doesn't hit the fan for three days it goes back to 50-50 in this country. your thoughts? >> i think that people in

washington, d.c. and the political elite, if you will, and also in the media elite, meaning us among other people underestimate the level of contempt there is -- and i use that word advisedly, contempt there is in the country at large for washington elites and we in the media. i an there are people that listen to what we say, i presume, but not a that many. a lot of people just tune us out and people like us out and they are fed up with what's going on in washington, they want radical change of some type and a lot of them are low-information voters, they vote with their gut and donald trump appeals to that gut, you know, again it's remarkable that we're sitting here talking about a potential donald trump presidency which would amount to a national emergency, i have to say. i mean, we're having fun here, we're talking it's a conversation but we should take this seriously.

a 1-in-3 chance of donald trump becoming president is the a 1-in-3 chance of an asteroid hitting the planet. we've seen movement in the past few days but which side should be sweating this out at this point? this is "hardball," the place for politics.

welcome back to "hardball." hillary clinton supporters were likely relieved yesterday after polls showed she has an edge in wisconsin, north carolina, and florida. but today a wbur poll in new hampshire shows donald trump is up by a point after clinton had been leading there since the summer. a separate suffolk university/"boston globe" poll shows the candidates tied at even, 42 points apiece. in arizona where clinton held a rally last night, trump leads, however, five points. 45% by 40% but there's five more points to win there in the latest nbc/"wall street journal"/marist poll. in georgia, trump narrowly leads

clinton by a point. and in colorado a university of denver poll shows the candidates tied at 39 however nbc, our network, note the poll assumes the hispanic vote, the latino vote, in that electorate at 9% while turnout among that group in 2012 was 14%. it's expected to exceed that amount so they may have the wrong weighting going on at wei. the associated press reports that at the national level the tens of millions of early votes cast point to strength from democratic leaning latino voters potentially giving clinton a significant advantage in states like nevada and colorado. with more than half the votes cast, democrats are matching if not exceeding their successful 2012 race. tonight both candidates are set to speak in the battleground state of north carolina where the real clear politics average has the race dead even. i'm joined by democratic pollster margie o'marah, and the political research director at suffolk university.

david, i've never seen so many states where they're almost dead even. it's hard to predict the electoral college. even georgia they're bopping back and forth and new hampshire bopping back and forth. what do you see? >> it's amazing. you have before comey and after comey and if you look at the real clear politics averages -- and i think when we look back at this election we'll be judging on the polling with the after-comey totals. in new hampshire, as we just released this afternoon, the polls showing the race dead even. none of the polling prior to today had shown trump leading or the race dead even. >> who's moving to trump? who's moving to trump? jane newton-small was just here, she said she believes it's white working women who didn't go to college, that group is moving back to trump having been

against him after that "access hollywood" thing came out. >> yeah and we asked the comey question, too, to your point, and this covers all demographics and we asked the question of whether or not people are less likely to vote because of the comey letter to congress or if they thought it was an overblown story and wouldn't affect their vote. going into this poll i thought it would be 30%. in new hampshire it was 49% less likely, 44% said it's an overblown story and wouldn't affect their vote. that aside, among independents the number jumps to 52% and if you look at the people who are third party voters in new hampshire -- >> 52% said it would affect their vote? >> 52% of independents who said less likely and if you look at the total of the three third party candidates on the new hampshire ballot and the undecided it's almost 60% less likely. so that finding crosses many

demographics of the people who are the remaining voters. in addition to that the trust numbers -- >> david, it's not clear what you're saying. what percentage of the voters are affected negatively toward hillary clinton by the disclosure. what percentage? >> 49%. >> are less likely to be for hillary? >> that's right. 49% but that number jumps over 50% in the key categories which are independents and those people remaining to vote which -- remaining to pick one of the two party candidates, the undecides or the third party candidate. that's a problem going forward. >> margie, we're going to philadelphia tomorrow and talk to one of the last political machines. all the ward leaders are meeting, getting together. how much will that ground game make up for hillary? if you say both are at 48%, will hillary win with 50-48 because she has a ground became? how do you measure that? >> first in the polls, people being contacted a lot.

we did a poll that measured recall of being contacted through ten different points of contact and clinton did a better job at contacting her base than trump did among his across a variety of different types of contact, web and online. but you'd also see in the the early voting which is why you see advantages in states like nevada and north carolina and florida -- >> is that a pulled vote? >> you mean is that -- >> are the people called up -- >> look, well, yes, it's part of polling. polling captures that. >> pulling. p-u-l-l. are they pulled out? >> yes. so we don't know yet, it's not just people are voting early that would vote on election day or are you improving by banking those votes when she's higher. >> tell me the story you told me off camera because i want you to respond to it, david, where the husband is probably for trump, the wife is for hillary clinton. what goes on there?

>> so we did a focus group of couples who disagree, walmart moms, swing voting moms and their husbands who disagree with them and, in fact we had two couples where the wives were for trump and the men were for clinton and we had a whole mix. >> what does that tell you? >> one, the man was latino. >> oh. >> so he was voting for clinton. he said if trump wins he'd have to leave the country and you had couples saying this is the worst our marriage has ever been. other couples saying we watch in separate rooms so we don't have to be near each other or we don't talk about it. another husband said i'm glad she doesn't want to talk about it because i don't want to be in the doghouse. >> thank you margie and david. up next, my election diary on what last night's game seven of the world series could tell us about this presidential campaign. this is "hardball," the place for politics. [ keyboard typing ]

intercom: the library is now closing. ok kid, closing up. goodnight. the hardest part about homework shouldn't be figuring out where to do it. through internet essentials, comcast has connected over 3 million people in need to low-cost internet at home. welcome to a brighter future. comcast. election diary thursday, november 3, 2016.

thursday before election is usually my time to make a prediction. i have a simple method. look at the matchup right now, eck the wind direction and project where things will stand on tuesday. well, clearly hillary clinton has a few points ahead right now, she's ahead, that's the easy part. now to check wind direction and velocity. there's the problem. is it still in trump's direction as it's been since last friday or has hillary clinton changed the subject back to trump's personal conduct over the years? okay, i'll say it. i watched last night's seventh game of the world series and here's what happened and why i think it's happening for hillary clinton right now. the cubs got into the lead, they had the bats, then davis hit the three-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth to tie up the game for cleveland. that's what trump did with the fbi report last friday, tied it up. i think the cubs -- hillary, in this case -- has the bats. she's still out there hammering trump with the personal stuff. forget the talk of high road, she's hitting him where he's bleeding. none of this is about the -- none of this about -- remember bern fli saying enough of the

damned e-mails. you don't get that from her. when she spots a weakness she pounces and keeps pounding it. she knows the game, bernie didn't. you have to tell your troops you want to win more than they do. so even though this contest hasn't gone into overtime, it feels that way. trump got his rally but isn't -- well, isn't she from chicago? she's got the bats. i'm still looking at her. that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. join us tomorrow night at 7:00 eastern. see you then.

>> stay on point, donald. stay on point. >> an unprecedented escalation five days out. >> the fbi agents say their investigation is likely to yield an endimt. >> the republican nominee marshalling lies and law enforcement leaks to attempt a comeback. tonight, the state of the race and new reporting on how the trump campaign is using the fbi to try to win the white house. >> we got a couple things up our sleeve. >> then, as duke debates -- >> watch what's happening to mr. trump. >> the president escalates. >> if you accept the support of klan simp thidsers before you are president you'll accept their support after you're president. >> plus, the incredible irony of melania trump. >> our culture has gotten too mean and too rough. >> and, it has happened.