party in chicago, we got one right here. and they got one over there, too. >> another one's coming right up. that does it for us, i'm ali velshi alongside alex witt. "morning joe" >> a lot of very, very big poll numbers coming down over the last few days. you've seen it. we are going to win the white house. going to win it. it's feeling like it already, isn't it? we've got to be nice and cool. nice and cool. right. stay on point, donald. stay on point. no side tracks, donald. nice and easy. because i've been watching hillary the last few days. she's totally unhinged. we don't want any of that. >> donald stood on a stage and said and i quote, "i'm honored to have the greatest temperament that anyone's ever had."

he knows we can see and hear him, right? this is someone who at another rally yesterday actually said out loud to himself, stay on point, donald. stay on point. his campaign probably put that in the teleprompter. stay on point, donald. stay on point. >> good morning. it's friday, november 4th. >> was she reading the teleprompter just curious. >> they pote have their issues with performance. but we're here. it's friday. >> donny is here. >> right. you have to go right there on a friday morning. the week is almost over. >> everywhere i get stopped and people go why do mika and joe hate you so much. everywhere. everywhere. he cuts you off. she picks on you. i say the same thing as joe. >> who stops you.

nypd? >> mostly elderly ladies who want niceness in the world. >> you do know that my daughter is just back from college. stay away from her, right? >> we like you. in a special way. we like you by marriage. we have to. with us on set, managing editor of bloomberg politics and co-host of "with all due respect" mike halperin. pulitzer prize winning columnist and associate editor for worst, eugene robinson is with us this morning. willie, joe, here we are. friday before. >> i saw donny deutch walking down the hall. i guess he just did his injections with conseco. >> spray tan. >> and you walk down the hall

and you're a little sore and then you go, i'm scared. why are you scared, donny? >> i'm scared because there's a 50-50 chance this lunatic could be our next president. >> why are you calling hillary clinton a lunatic? what is going on? she's a great leader. >> look, it's really simple what's happening. it's not too complicated. this election has been a dial test between, okay, on one hand we have an unlikable, untrustworthy bureaucratic status quo and on other the end we have a hatemongering -- >> 50-50 really? >> what's happening to the dials, the untrustworthy has dialed up because of comey and dangerous has dialed down because he's stepped back. the vote to me is screw it vote. screw it, i can't vote for her. screw it, i can't vote for him. >> how unbelievable it is.

i heard last night on cnn somebody saying, well, he's been disciplined for the past week, but he can't continue for another five days. this is what most people have been saying. if he would have stayed out of the way the entire campaign and made this referendum on hillary clinton he would be doing much, much better. he stayed out of the way for the most part and there have been a lot of other things happening but he's certainly stayed out of her bad news. and it's making a difference. >> he's done some things that would have got more attention in a negative way between affordable care act and comey and wikileaks, that's overwhelmed anything the candidates have done. i don't think it's anything like 50-50. >> where do you see it? >> i think it's impossible to put a number on it but it's hard to get him to 270 electoral votes without polls being dramatically wrong. >> by the way, we've always said new hampshire, new hampshire.

you look at new hampshire and it's tied. it's a very simple reason. co comey. one word. >> the thing that has been the most frustrating to me, willie, is having people in the media and even on this show act as if this is a static occurrence like saying that hillary clinton is up by six points. hillary clinton has been up by eight points. well, every day is a new day. every day things move in a different direction. if you look at the polls and we're going to show you in a minute, if you look more importantly where the candidates think the races are competitive, forget about all of us. hillary is going to detroit. they are having their huge finale in philadelphia. the clinton campaign they know those states are competitive now. we have five days left. as i was saying when everybody said it was over three weeks

ago, there's two weeks left. there are five days left. i don't think there's anybody on the face of the earth that would not say that trump has had the momentum for the past week. we got to wait and see. does that momentum last another -- i think it's a two-point race. maybe a three-point race. another five days of momentum, anything is possible. >> he has momentum. the reason it's not 50-50 is because of what mark said. the map. it's still very hard to put together a map for donald trump. now, having said that, all these states -- just a couple weeks ago the clinton campaign was so confident the story was they are going to play in red states. maybe utah is on the board. maybe texas is on the board. georgia. arizona. all of these places you could usually paint red. now those are starting to widen. you see trump's lead getting bigger in those states with the exception of georgia and now if you pick up the paper today places like virginia, "the washington post" asking is virginia back in play. so it's gotten closer. there's no question about it. she's still if you were betting your house, you would bet money

on her. >> yesterday the candidate's planes crossed each other's paths on the tarmac in raleigh, north carolina, after donald trump spotted air force one in miami saying the president shou b creating jobs and fixing obamacare instead of campaigning. >> and there you go. that underlines what you just said about new hampshire. barack obama, president of the united states, would not be going to new hampshire. >> remember those focus groups. >> a state that ten days ago people on this set were saying was impossible for him to win. barack obama wouldn't be going to new hampshire. >> can we stay on new hampshire for one second. this is the election. almost half of the electorate has said that the new e-mail thing made them less likely to vote for hillary and close to 60% of independents and third-party candidates, 60% said that is the one issue that changed everything. i don't care what anybody else says. >> the president's first

campaign stop there since 2012. while vice president joe biden barnstorms in a late push across pennsylvania. and later -- >> and gene robinson, there's pennsylvania. so much focus on pennsylvania. i'll be the first to say whenever a republican talks about winning pennsylvania i just laugh. but there have been these polls that show it four points, five points, two points. the internals from both campaigns suggest it's even closer than that. we're seeing the president go there. we're seeing them have their final massive rally there on monday in pennsylvania. a lot -- pennsylvania getting a lot of traffic this year especially at the end. >> let's talk about these other states. when you talk about pennsylvania, as you mentioned, joe, this is republicans saying this time we're going to get pennsylvania. we're going to get pennsylvania. they don't get pennsylvania. they're not going to get pennsylvania this year. they're just not. >> when you say they're not, why

is the president, the first lady, joe biden, hillary clinton, bill clinton, they aren't all going to pennsylvania because they want to listen to great music. they're going to pennsylvania because they want to nail it down. >> you can hear great music in pennsylvania, but this is what happens. pennsylvania looks close. democrats go into pennsylvania and they win it. it's just historically that's what happens in pennsylvania. i think it will almost surely happen again this year. it would -- >> almost surely is better than it's not going to happen. we've been dealing with a lot nothing going to happen around this set for the past month. it's possible. i don't see it happening. i really don't. if pennsylvania falls, a lot of other states are going to fall. everybody from president obama to joe biden, president, vice president, and democratic

presidential candidate focusing on like a laser the last weekend. >> and tim kaine is going to finish the campaign in once thought to be safe virginia. this after hillary clinton made a late gamut to expand the electoral map this week. now clinton and her surrogates are finishing out the campaign with appearances in states once believed to be locked in for the democrats with nominee herself headed to michigan and western pennsylvania today while donald trump will make stops in pennsylvania, new hampshire, nevada, and north carolina in the final hours. all states that had been leaning toward clinton. >> you know, mark halperin, just based on my reporting, forget public polls, one showed michigan at three, both camps think michigan is very competitive. i find that shocking. there's a reason hillary is going there. there's a reason trump is going there. they are all nervous about

michigan. >> well, again, they're not that many states in play. clinton team has a lot of big surrogates. shouldn't overread that they are playing defense. they don't want to take anything for chance. if trump is going on offense, they're going to play defense there. i don't think he can cherry pick his way to this. he may not win all of the battleground states. if he's going to become president, he's going to need national surge beyond what he's already had to reshape the electorate in a more national way. she still is having trouble turning out certain members of the obama coalition, and he has had the gift of everything in the news to energize the republican base. a state like michigan, he's going to do well with independents. may not win independents, but he's going to do well. >> i wonder if the clinton camp is haunted by what happened in the democratic primary to bernie sanders and they're thinking once bitten, twice shy. we were supposed to walk away

with michigan. bernie ended up beating us. we're not going let that happen to us again. >> look, i don't -- i will say it again. we wouldn't have the discussion if it wasn't for the comey thing. i don't think he had a choice. >> comey didn't have a choice? >> damned if he did, damned if he didn't. i'm the biggest anti-trump guy there is. last time i'll be on the show until election day. i really believe this -- >> this is going to be good. >> cue the music. >> this is bad guy. this is a nasty bully. we've always elected a decent human being. i don't care where the politics are. and hillary is tremendously flawed. this man makes fun of disabled people. something you wouldn't let a 9 year old do. you guys are all professionals.

you won't say it on the air. you agree with me. a scary, dangerous guy. i can't believe this is potentially happening to this country. >> why is this happening? >> we know the reason. >> why is he getting closer? >> because there are a lot of angry disenfranchised people out there. >> could it be people feel that way about hillary clinton? >> i don't think you can compare them. >> this is the problem that manhattan elites like us, like people in georgetown, they can see how evil donald trump is but because of their world view, they can't imagine that people in middle america feel just as strongly about hillary clinton. >> of course they do. >> think she should be indicted. think she and her husband have gotten away with everything in the past 30, 40 years. think that there's really not that much of a difference between the two so why not vote for change. i'm not saying that's how i feel. i'm just saying though when you give your sermon, i could find

somebody in manhattan, kansas, sitting next to you give just as a compelling argument on why they can't believe people like you would vote for hillary. would that be legitimate? >> everyone's opinion is -- i'm just stunned. i'm upset and i'm worried. i'm worried. >> first, democrats have run out of language to use against republicans. really? obama thought romney was a normal republican because that's not how it came across at the time. sure in 2012 obama ran a commercial arguing that romney wasn't us and joe biden said romney would put african-americans back in chains. but in retrospect, he was fine. in fact, he was no threat at all. chill. fair as charges are against

trump, i can't help i would see accusations leveled against whoever he or she was. crying wolf has its drawbacks. when the rhetoric used to describe donald trump and mitt romney is indistinguishable to all but most tuned in something has gone seriously wrong in the culture. >> couldn't agree more. this is a mistake when you say mitt romney kills cancer patients and paul ryan pushes old ladies off the cliff and -- >> there's video old lady flying off a cliff. >> and they said mitt romney, mitt romney is an honorable man. he's a great man. four years ago the ticket said he was going to put blacks back in chains. so this is again, we all know the difference between donald trump and mitt romney. i speak to the republican voter who every four years hears in 2000 and 2004, that george w. bush is a nazi and then in 2008

that sarah palin is somehow racist because one person in the crowd has a sign that cause barack obama a socialist. and then in 2012, mitt romney is killing cancer patients. donald trump is a different candidate than all of those men. a different character than all of those men. but try telling that to somebody in middle america who has grown up every four years hearing about how republicans hate black people, hate old people, hate women. they have a war on women. they have a war on black people. and they have a war on everybody who is not white. cried wolf. >> i think the distinct between democrats is the one that donny made. i saw the former obama aide make it this morning. usually a toss of the coin. you could live with and work with mitt romney, john mccain, george w. bush. ey were predictable in some way but donald trump is russian roulette. you don't know what's going to

happen. >> i totally agree with that. but in the heat of the campaign, mark halperin, if marco rubio had gotten the nomination, we would have been hearing the same thing about he's going to put blacks back in chains which joe biden said about mitt romney. he hates women. there's going to be a war on women. he's going to -- we would have heard the same arguments and that's charles' point. a very important point for both sides. watch your extreme language because somebody just may come along that is dangerous. it sure as well wasn't mitt romney. >> one distinction is democrats are saying things about donald trump's character that they wouldn't have said about marco rubio or mitt romney. they're not just saying policies are bad. they are looking at his conduct and behavior and they are labeling him. i think that is a difference. >> it's not barack obama. an article four years ago talked about how much contempt barack

obama personally had for mitt romney. loathed him as a man and said there was nothing to respect about him. gene robinson, this is a great point for my republican brothers and sisters because, you know, you heard what they said about barack obama over the past eight years. all of the things -- he's a socialist. he's a racist. he hates all white people. he's trying to end -- what happens four years from now if some crazy person from the far left comes along that really is dangero dangerous? then republicans will be caught crying wolf. >> exactly. i was going to make two points. exactly that point. you know, it's already being said hillary clinton would fundamentally change america and we would be singing under hillary clinton who was a hawkish democratic. that's point number one.

you talk extreme rhetoric. the point that needs to be made is democrats did not nominate donald trump. i don't think you can blame democratic rhetoric for the fact that the republican primary season was like afghanistan this year and he's the warlord who emerged on top. democrats didn't do that. republicans did that. >> i understand that. i'm talking maybe four years from now that they'll use the same rhetoric against the next republican that they used against donald trump -- >> maybe this is a glimpse into an abyss and if we're fortunate, we will step back from the abyss and maybe conduct ourselves all a bit differently. >> that would be the greatest hope from this. i really want to double that. i think about it. everybody is pessimistic. i'm not pessimistic. this is a learning moment.

is that what they say? >> teachable moment for american democracy. we step back from the abyss and we stop hurling the charges that we hurl at both sides. >> let's all hold hands. >> we can't hold yours right now president there's still some cream on there. i don't want to grow hair -- why does he have hair on his knuckles? >> i don't want to talk about that. remember last -- >> jealousy is showing and it's unbecoming. >> we'll be joined by rnc chief strategist sean spicer and filmmaker michael moore who is backing hillary clinton but says she better keep a close eye on michigan. >> we'll look at the latest polls and see if there really is a pathway to 270 for donald trump. >> by the way, if you are watching on wednesday morning, if you're up late and up really

early, we have a special edition of "morning joe." lined up for the morning after the election. we'll be live from historic studio 8h here at 30 rock november 9th for complete coverage of the 2016 results. but first for now, let's go to bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill? >> warm weather continues. we have the election day forecast only four days away. a lot of the swing states and everybody across the board is looking fantastic. this could be one of the warmest election day forecasts we've ever had. ten degrees above average in minneapolis. wisconsin looks good. michigan looks good. pennsylvania looks great. 61 in new york city. the southeast looks fantastic. swing state of florida, 83 in tampa. 79 in miami. no problems in orlando. a little bit of rain here. oklahoma city, dallas and houston and new orleans but nothing too bad there. as we head back into the west, again, no issues. even alaska is not bad. it's chilly but dry. showers in the northwest. again, the forecast so far beginning of this november has

been extremely warm and continues this week across the board from middle of the country to the east coast. saturday's forecast looks good. 70s across the board. east coast looks great. unbelievably warm and beautiful forecast we've had as we go through the last couple days and right into your upwomcoming weekend. new york city, you're included in that. chilly mornings but beautiful afternoons and new york city marathon on sunday looks fantastic. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. to a few places... ...and those places keep changing every few months. the quicksilver card from capital one doesn't do any of that. with quicksilver you earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. leave complicated behind. what's in your wallet? bp engineers use robotic ultrasound technology, so they can detect and repair corrosion

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>> despite what you see on the evening news and on tv, elections in a democracy, this particular election, is not about hillary clinton. it is not about donald trump. it is not about bill clinton. it is not about mrs. trump or the trump kids. this election unbelievably is about you. this election is not a personality contest. you don't like mr. trump, you don't like mrs. clinton, fine.

what this election is about is which candidate has the ideas and the program to improve life for the working families and middle class of this country. that's what this election is about. >> if i nail down the democratic nomination, you don't want bernie sanders out for you. you don't like her. you sit there and go, god, am i going to have to list with this in my teeth for the next four years? vote for her anyway. it will come out eventually. >> he may be reading wikileaks perhaps and what they've been saying for a year and a half. >> it might be. i might have just read that e-mail. >> that would do it. we're talking about the e-mail

where podesta said where should we stick the knife? >> "morning joe" goes interactive. we're breaking out the electoral map ahead. ♪ ♪ well, if you want to sing out, sing out ♪ ♪ and if you want to be free, be free ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to be ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ and if you want to be me, be me ♪ ♪ and if you want to be you, be you ♪ ♪ 'cause there's a million things to do ♪ ♪ you know that there are ♪ [baby talk] [child giggling] child: look, ma. no hands. children: "i", "j", "k"... [bicycle bell rings]

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all right. let's dig through numbers that have donny deutch worried this morning. donald trump viable in the states he needs.

the poll shows hillary clinton and trump deadlocked in new hampshire. 42-42. a monmouth university poll in utah shows voters coming off the sidelines. trump in the lead 37% to hillary clinton's 31. utah native evan mcmullin running at 24% where he's been campaigning hard in utah. and trump gets a comfortable margin in texas. 49-40 over hillary clinton. gar y johnson down at 6%. and clinton trailing in arizona by five percentage points. johnson has nine points there. a tight race in the state of georgia where the nbc/"wall street journal" poll puts trump at 45% one point ahead of clinton at 44. nate silver writes that hillary clinton's current position is worse than barack obama's was in 2012. silver forecasts clinton with 65% chance of winning the

electoral college compared to final election forecast in 2012 which gave president obama a 91% chance to win. the difference is in part due to the increase in both undecided and third-party voters this year. silver notes that clinton has a lead in states totalling just 272 electoral votes whereas president obama was secure at 303 electoral votes. >> i think we have to stop here. i think this is one of those times where we need a time-out and we have to say time-out. it's remarkable that back in the fall last summer when everybody said we were crazy for saying donald trump could win the nomination, people freaked out. they freaked out for six or eight months. then they were saying that we were rooting for it to happen when i actually said in december three months before the first vote was cast that i would not be voting for donald trump.

but they were freaking out. and "the new york times" had all of these stupid things that had marco rubio -- remember, marco was going to win. even on the day he was announcing, i think "the new york times" said marco was going to win. i had never seen anything like it. i understand people hating donald trump and being scared of donald trump. i understand that completely. but i don't understand people incapable of doing their job and being blinded. it's happening again now where we've had people on this show saying there is no rationale way that any rationale person could see donald trump getting to 270. well, i don't know if nate silver is not rationale. but nate silver says that hillary has a 65% chance. you say the book he's having -- >> i don't think it's 50-50.

but these people that act -- what's amazing is that you have people that actually turn to willie, mika and me and mark because he's predicting this early on. predicting trump winning the republican nomination. it's as if you get mad at the meteorologists for predicting -- >> we tend to do that. >> the hurricane. we do because it's bill karins. easy to get mad at. >> punch him. >> right in the face. >> without comey thing -- >> but that happened. i will say this also. donald trump had gone from 12 to 4 before comey. it went down to 2 before comey. a lot of these states weren't closing. this is what the media -- they're so busy looking at everybody else. i include myself in this. we're kind of at the center of it. when this election is over, they need to look at just how poorly of a job they did.

you've got editorial pages for a reason. i like news analysis on the front page. i love fact checkers even though they're bias that it's absolute nonsense but you have to have a place where you can go and get straight analysis. we don't have that. i saw something last night late that was staggering that somebody was attacked because they simply said donald trump may have had a slight tiny chance of getting elected president. well, let's go through the states. let's see how irrational it is. again, nate silver would tell you the same thing. save your stupid right wing whatever because i'm not voting for him. new hampshire is a state where last week somebody said not a rationale person could ever say donald trump could win new hampshire. there was no pathway there. let's look at some polls that have come out in new hampshire. that was a poll that came out wbur, respected poll.

trump up two. hillary down two. momentum trump's way. he's now ahead 40-39. go ahead and put that in trump's category. not saying it will happen. i'm saying it could happen. barack obama believes it could happen or else he wouldn't be going there. north carolina. this is a state i say is a long hard slog for donald trump. i think this one ends up going democratic at the end. look. hillary clinton and donald trump basically in a tie there. 42 to 41. there's been another poll out this week that actually had trump up 51-44. survey usa poll. i'm a little skeptical. in fact, i'm very skeptical about the margin there. most people would say, including the clintons, that this is a tossup. it's one that he could win. if moment continues moving in this direction, chances are good he could win it.

i don't think he will but it is possible. go ahead and put that red. we're just seeing what's happening. if this is impossible as people thought it was for cubs to come back from 3-1 deficit playing the last three games in cleveland. ohio, undecided. clinton camp believes donald trump will win ohio. up five points in the latest q poll there. let's give him ohio. he may not win it. but let's go ahead. if clintons think it's the case and trumps think it's a case, let's paint it red. >> donny is worried. >> terrified. >> next. let's go to nevada. a poll cnn came out this week had trump plus six. the respected political pro out there doesn't believe this poll. but cnn has a poll that has him up six. other polls have that race tied right now. >> it's the latino vote.

9%. that's skewed. >> we'll see what happens here. let's paint it red -- is there anybody here, anybody here that says that it is impossible for donald trump to win? >> why are you rooting for trump? >> exactly. exactly. >> this is the exact path we talked about three weeks ago. we said unlikely to get it but since then -- >> people freaked out. arizona. a state where everybody was saying last week there's no which he can win because he's losing in arizona. no, he's not. donald trump up five points in arizona right now. 49 to 44. in case you have a short attention span, right, in case you're like that dude where you need to take a polaroid every five seconds to figure out where you are, take a polaroid right now and write these words on your wrist. joe is saying it might happen. it could happen. along with nate silver, a 35%

chance it will happen. have you taken the polaroid yet? have you put it right here? i don't want you to think three minutes from now that anybody here is rooting for donald trump because we're not. let me finish this exercise. this is impossible. this will never happen. god, you people. you need to do your job and be journalists. you're really disgusting. >> come on. that's not nice. >> it's not nice. let's go to iowa right now. iowa both camps believe iowa is going trump. i don't know. i think things could go either way. right now it's tied up in one poll. other polls have him up a few points. i think it's close. both campaigns believe that trump has the advantage in iowa. so let's go ahead and put that right there. finally, we saved florida for the very end. let's go to maine. >> they elected quite a governor in maine. >> second congressional district. right now clinton is up in maine

in the second district by seven points. that's a surprise. >> i never heard of that poll. >> i haven't either. i haven't seen a poll that has trump behind that much. is that the only maine 2nd poll that we have? >> i've never seen that poll. never seen maine 2nd poll. >> that poll is wrong. that's why we were confused. >> i'm not familiar. trump is up. poll is wrong. let's give maine 2nd to trump. not saying it will happen but it could happen along with nate silver -- >> 41-38 trump in maine. >> okay. finally, i saved florida for last because i think that florida is the steepest climb for donald trump for demographic reasons especially hispanics in the i-4 corridor. we have a believe that most hispanic break donald trump's way traditionally because of

cuban americans in south florida. not the case anymore. a poll has donald trump up four points that came up this past weekend. other polls show clinton ahead by three or four points. i feel it's a two or three point race in hillary clinton's direction. you put that there and that gives trump 270 electoral votes. will that happen today, friends? no. that will not happen today. it's just not going to. but, elections aren't static. voters don't have their feet in cement. a lot of early votes already out there so that has cemented a lot of this. but if momentum continues in donald trump's direction over the next five days, people like nate silver and the bookies may be right. there may be a chance, willie. there may be one out of three, one out of four chance. >> i take your point.

we have given him every coin toss. so this is the best possible scenario. he wins by two electoral votes. you know who else understands what you're saying? the clinton campaign. there's a reason they're going to michigan and wisconsin. >> we didn't even put michigan up there or wisconsin. >> new hampshire. pennsylvania. look at the places they're putting time, money, resources and energy over the final four days of the campaign. they understand that this scenario could happen. >> the campaign thinks it's over. just to be clear. >> why not? >> they have to do something. they think it's over. they say they have the lead in states that will block him. they think that after comey, after the change in public polling. they say it's over. >> they're going to michigan. >> leaving nothing to chance. but they believe florida and north carolina and michigan and pennsylvania are over. they'll win them.

>> that's fine. >> i think five days out i will repeat this again, and i have to because there are a lot of slow people that are extremists out there and people in the press who are extremists who actually think we are saying this is going to happen. we are rooting. all we're saying this could happen, would it happen today? no. he won't win all of the tossups today. what happens five days from now? it's what i said two weeks from now. they change in two weeks. a week is a lifetime in politics. i've said it a thousand times. things could break back hillary clinton's way the final week. >> obviously it's completely open at this point. we're burying the lead. you all know it. we're five days away from potentially electing a dangerous man as the head of this country. this is not funny. this is not score keeping. you all know it. you're all parents. this is not funny anymore. >> it's not just score keeping.

i don't understand. >> i'm talking to the world. numbers speak for themselves. >> if you are afraid this might happen, you need somebody like me and the clintons need something like me and mika and willie and mark saying this could happen because hillary clinton's greatest danger is complacency by people who have been listening to the media saying this has been over for a month. and gene robinson, i suspect that's a reason why hillary clinton said and keeps saying this race is going to be close. you've said it. do not take this for granted. >> look, very early on i said, you know, pay attention to donald trump when he was running for the republican nomination. i said he was a force to be reckoned with.

i said he was godzilla. you said something very important. the thing, you know, i wrote a column last week. the thing that could defeat hillary clinton and the only thing is complacency and if they think it's over, it may not be. i think it is not a bad thing for hillary clinton that there is -- if there is a sense of urgency, if there is a sense of peril, if there is a sense that voters have a sense that we have to go out and we have to do this. >> i think joe made your point. >> what is bad though is for journalists, is for reporters to keep their heads buried in the sand just because reality does not line up with their own personal prejudices. i've with nate silver. i always said that kid had a

future. and like willie, i'm with the bookies. >> you and nate silver. >> just ahead, mike pence -- >> there's a small chance but a chance. >> just ahead, mike pence would not endorse paul ryan for house speaker. the first time he was asked or the second time he was asked or the third time he was asked. we'll talk to the national review reporter who posed that question to the presidential nominee and get an update on what the campaign is saying now. "morning joe" is coming right back. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.

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joining us from jacksonville, florida, tim alber alberta. his latest piece is a profile of mike pence.

the republican vice presidential nominee is not oblivious to external perception. he has been stung by criticisms. yet down the stretch of this campaign, he has tuned them out. in an interview aboard his plane, he draws heavily from his stump speech and offers few original or introspective observations about the extraordinary journey he's been on since mid july. pence has how willfully insulated from the possibility that trump committed sexual assault. and from the reality that its defeat is likely. it's telling that while many of his allies are bearish about what election day will bring, pence is certain that an historic triumph is at hand. >> thank you for being with us. a lot of conservatives both you and i know who could never vote for donald trump have long said well mike pence is there and maybe mike pence will be the

conduit and maybe i can vote for him. even if i can't vote for him, at least i know he's there. i know his reluctance to say he would support paul ryan as speaker this past week shook a lot of people up. what happened and where is he now? >> you know, it was a very interesting exchange, guys. obviously donald trump had made the comments about paul ryan being our very weak and ineffective leader and had suggested that ryan should be removed from the speakership. so in the course of a pretty lengthy interview with governor pence aboard his plane, i felt obviously compelled to ask that question, but i didn't expect there to be any news made there. mike pence has stood by paul ryan throughout this sort of almost love triangle with ryan and trump being at each other's throats over the last couple months. so when mike pence refused to answer the question the first time, i pressed him on it and then he refused again. the third time when i asked him, he said i'm not a member of the

house republican conference anymore and wouldn't presume how those members should vote. it's a fascinating window into how conflicted mike pence is as he tries to stay true to who he is and stay loyal to his running mate and not establish daylight from him publicly. it was an interesting exchange. i could tell from the looks on the faces of the pence's guys sitting there with us that they knew that something was off and he had mishandled the situation. so one of them came back and talked to me. let's be clear, if he were still a member, he would vote for pence. i said well -- or he would vote for ryan. i said would he support ryan regardless? does he support him now? >> he doesn't want to get into that. he's not at member anymore. now yesterday the pence team got out in front of this thing and tried to correct it and said he's 100% for paul ryan. it was just a very, very odd exchange. >> tim, it's willie geist. mike pence over the course of

this campaign come out after dark nights and days for donald trump. i think of the "access hollywood" tape for example put on brave face and defend the candidate. things that he privately finds indefensible. did you see that conflicted back and forth for him internally and even with his own circle of people about having to go out and take flak from donald trump on some of these things? >> you really can. it's almost visible on his face and you can hear it in his voice. not only during our interview but during his stump speech and some of the national television interviews you see governor pence do. you just can't stress enough that not only do these guys not come from a similar sort of ideological world view but they just have very little in common. these are not guys who are very much alike. i think that you think about governor pence. he had this reputation in the house. joe, you probably know this. he didn't allow female staffers in his office to work past 5:00 p.m. because he wanted to avoid any optics that could be even

potentially in anybody's eyes inappropriate. and now he's running with a guy who is facing all of these allegations of sexual assault and who is caught on tape, you know, saying that he's grabbed women and how he can grab women because he's a celebrity. you just couldn't think of two guys who are more polar opposites. i think it's a real struggle for governor pence and it has been since he joined the ticket to reconcile these two things. i think what we've seen now and what i write about in the piece is that he has almost out of necessity sort of adopted this bunker mentality where he's sort of just put on blinders and blocked out this noise from the outside. he is sort of willfully insulated from any of the negativity and any of the doom and gloom. he almost just wants to pretend it doesn't exist because it makes his job in staying loyal to his running mate all the easier. >> great piece. great interview. what do you know about pence's influence, if any, over donald trump? over the message trump has been

doing. he's been more disciplined over the ad strategy. is he involved in any of in that? >> mike pence is asserting a similar influence over donald trump that he had when he was a member of the house republican leadership which is to say he takes care of these things very much behind the scenes. so when mike pence broke from john boehner on a number of significant policy measures that when they were both in the leadership together, this was always happening behind the scenes. mike pence would go to john boehner and say, mr. speaker, just so you know or, mr. minority leader, just so you know i'm going to have to do something else here and not vote with the team here. he kept those things behind closed doors and that's been his relationship with trump. i'm told on a couple of things that donald trump has listened to pence. for example, on what was once a blanket ban on any muslim immigrants coming into the country that pence went to him and made the case behind closed doors that instead this should

be a ban on people coming from areas afflicted with terrorism. so that's one example of how pence has handled this behind the scenes. >> tim alberta, thank you very much. >> thank you for being with us. >> in ten seconds it's the top of the hour. you're watching "morning joe" on this friday, november 4th. with us on set, we have managing editor of bloomberg politics, mark halperin, steve rattner joins the table. steve has charts. we'll get to them. in washington, pulitzer prize winning columnist and associate editor of "the washington post" and msnbc political analyst eugene robinson and joining the conversation on capitol hill, "the new york times" reporter jarmd pe jeremy peters. >> it's dark at 7:00 a.m. we wouldn't know because we come in at 1:00. >> daylight savings time -- >> four-point swing in four

days. >> like her on health care. >> it's a three-point race. daylight savings time. when does that end? >> sunday morning. >> it's getting dark. it's dark at 7:00. >> the 2016 presidential campaign enters its final weekend with a race that's narrowing as election day draws closer except we have new numbers. yesterday the candidates' planes crossed each other's paths on the tarmac. on north carolina that hours after trump spotted air force one in miami. president obama will return to the campaign trail in new hampshire for hillary clinton on monday. his first campaign stop there since 2012. vice president joe biden barnstorms in a late push across

pennsylvania. and the president and first lady michelle obama will join hillary and bill clinton for an election eve rally in philadelphia on monday night. tim kaine will finish the campaign in once thought to be safe virginia after hillary clinton expanded the electoral map with a visit to arizona this week while trump went to wisconsin and michigan. now clinton and her surrogates finish out the campaign in states they thought once locked in for the democrats with the nominee headed to michigan and western pennsylvania today while donald trump will make steps in new hampshire, nevada, and north carolina in the final hours. all states that have been leaning toward clinton. >> let's get -- steve, jump in on the conversation. we've been saying the possibility is right now. hillary clinton says the race will be close. the last thing she wants is c e complacency in her campaign.

nate silver gives her a 65% chance. that's the same about markets. it's 2-1. does that sound right to you? >> i happen last night to have been with the leading economists who studies this kind of stuff. if i say prediction markets, you're going to say brexit. >> i'll also go marco rubio but go ahead. >> there's an enormous amount of data out there that points the same way. >> marco rubio is going to win the nomination? >> he might be president. i'll give you one example. we talk about the polls. one of the questions that's in the polls that was in "the new york times" poll yesterday is not just who are you going to vote for for president but who will be president? that's historically been a better predictor than the question of who are you going to vote for. "the new york times" poll it was 57-33. people thinking that hillary clinton was going to be president. down a little bit from the previous poll. >> it's about two to one. >> so i think really no matter how you triangulate it and i agree with what mark said at the

top of the earlier hour, you just go state by state. you go poll by poll and go through betting markets and everything points to hillary clinton. potentially by a little bit more than 3%. >> it really depends on how things break this weekend. it could move toward donald trump in some of these states where we've seen movement or it could go in the direction of the abc poll which is just all over the place. actually had trump ahead by one when no other polls had trump ahead by one. down 12 last week when nobody else had him down by 12. but the question is, it's all momentum. we don't know which way that's going to shift as somebody on the trump campaign said, we could win in a landslide, we could lose in landslide. i heard some clinton people say that it's just -- they think they're going to win but, again, we don't know how the final five days close. >> clinton high command doesn't feel we could win or lose but they feel they're going to win. it's based on a ground game. execution. a lot of powerful surrogates and

that donald trump has a ceiling on his support. i think as affordable care act and wikileaks and comey news settles down, she has a good chance to close out maintaining that small but durable lead. if he can find a way to keep momentum going through the weekend, then i think we're in a much different place where he can win enough of these battleground states to make it close. all of the way to 270? it's hard to see how he does it. it's not impossible. >> you've been on the campaign trail with the trump campaign in last couple days, where the states specifically as we look at map where he could potentially win where they feel better than the polling shows? is it michigan? is it wisconsin? colorado? do they really believe virginia is closing? where are they most optimistic? >> i think florida. florida is on a razor's edge. he was there flying all around on thursday.

he was there again and then on thursday morning he crossed paths with president obama at the miami airport and then later in jacksonville where both of them were campaigning for voters. i think one of the biggest unknowns here is how unaffiliated voters are breaking. we see early vote totals going in in crucial states of florida and north carolina and it looks like republicans are doing better than they were in 2012. what we don't know is what unaffiliated voters are doing. >> let me ask you this going off your reporting earlier this week. you had an article, a report talking about how some of the clinton camp were concerned there wasn't as many black voters out as four years ago. do clinton people believe that will be offset by the huge surge in hispanic voters that we're getting reports about from

nevada all of the way to florida? >> it could be. i don't think nevada was in as much doubt as florida or north carolina. i think that democrats have a comfortable margin in denver and colorado and polls show it tightening but it will be hard for trump to pull out a victory at this point. in florida, yes, you have a surge of hispanic voters and that could help offset it. if you don't turn out your base, if you don't turn out more blacks than they have at this point, in a close race, that could be the ball game. >> you say you don't think trump -- what do you say about nevada? you don't think trump is going to end up winning nevada? >> never say never of course. look at the democratic lead there in critical county around reno, democrats have been pretty comfortably ahead. indicators point to a pretty sizable lead among registered

democrats in the early voting and that would seem to rule out even a late breaking surge for trump giving him victory there. >> ease an awkward story for republicans. we've seen them at the phone bank for the republican party and by extension for donald trump. and yesterday we saw ted cruz do something that at one time few would have predicted. he stood behind the podium with trump emblazened on it and he didn't mention his party's nominee once. instead asking the people of iowa to send a republican to the white house. >> if you care about free speech, this election putting a republican in the white house and keeping a republican senate is the whole enchilada. >> so when the rally was over,

he boarded a plane bearing the trump name. smiled and waved. irony that was not lost on the senator from texas. >> you just said you look forward to calling governor pence mr. vice president. do you look forward to calling mr. trump, mr. president? >> i'm here campaigning for donald trump for mike pence. i'm getting ready to get on a gigantic airplane that has donald trump's name painted on the side of it. on monday of this week, i voted for donald trump. i voted for mike pence. i'm doing everything i can to defeat hillary clinton. i'm doing everything i can to keep a republican majority in the senate. >> pence is so polite. i voted for -- thank you. >> it's like the fonz trying to say sorry. >> who is? >> can't get it out of his mouth? >> you mean ted cruz? >> can't do it. >> it's what politics does. >> you're voting for him and stumping for him. say the name. >> you talked about the paul ryan dust up earlier.

>> we talked to tim alberta who interviewed mike pence who wouldn't say whether or not he would vote to support paul ryan. politico is reporting that mike pence will campaign with paul ryan tomorrow in wisconsin. >> pence has kept a lot of the republican party together. some in a public way. some behind the scenes. trump is at war with a lot of people in the republican party. but pence has kept a lot of people from allowing story line at the end to be republican party deeply divided. >> i rarely speak for mika because i always get in trouble. i think i can do this for time sake. mika and i have both been surprised by how well mike pence has done. that whole pat buchanan political athlete thing. >> he's taken pencing to a new level. you can't even tell it's happening. it's true. >> you've been surprised by how effective he's been. >> he crystallized exactly what we were sort of in the beginning thought he wasn't doing so well

which is taking on trump's -- taking on the campaign and sort of backing the nominee awkwardly. taking his words and spitting them out again. now he does it smoothly. >> i think he surprised a lot of people. i don't think he's offended too many people on either side to be honest with you. >> where does it leave him in the long run? >> he might become vice president president united states. more likely he becomes a front runner for 2020. >> we'll talk about that. >> he has to be in the mix. >> certainly look at the money people he's gotten in front of throughout this process. >> i'm not saying trump is going to win as you know. if he does win, and there's a chance he will, mike pence will get and should get a lot of credit because of what he's done behind the scenes. >> you can even say if it's close, mike pence should get a lot of credit. >> donald things he should get credit for picking mike pence and people that urged pe ed him

pick pence instead of christie should get credit. >> speaking with politico yesterday, senator cotton said he would keep an open mind to whomever clinton picks to fill the vacant seat of the late justice anthony scalia and is not likely to confirm a clinton pick given what she has said about justices she would select. it follows the declaration in recent weeks suggesting they would block a clinton pick or that court should remain at eight justices. speaking at a rally in arizona last night, mccain told the crowd this election is critical for the supreme court's future. >> my friends, i believe that we must keep a majority in the united states senate and one of the reasons is because there could be as many as three

supreme court justices that will be in the next four years. we have to have a senate who will prevent that 4-4 split from tilting to the left and making decisions that will harm this nation for decades to come. >> senator richard burr is adding his support to mccain and cruz's plan telling a crowd last night he would work to keep scalia's seat open. meanwhile, the heritage foundation, is backing their plan to keep the court at eight justices and that it's raising money for the cause. >> gene robinson, that's just destructive. i say that as a republican. i take a back seat to no one in focusing on the supreme court. the thought of hillary clinton selecting three left of center supreme court justices to me is a very dismal thought. even worse than that is undercutting the constitution of

the united states. advise and consent meansed advi and consent. you don't throw yourself on the tracks and block all nominees for four to eight years. that's just offensive. republicans need to back up. i'm surprised tom cotton did. i'm glad he did. >> i'm glad he did too. that idea is unacceptable. it's simply not the way this country is supposed to work. it's written in the constitution. advise and consent as you said does not mean standing in the schoolhouse door. it does not mean you keep the court at eight justices, which is not where it's supposed to be. it's just ridiculous. i hope that republicans in the senate follow the lead of tom cotton. i salute him for saying what should be obvious that the senate has a job to do and senate should do its job. >> you know, the thing is, steve

rattner, it's as if republicans think that there won't ever be another republican ever elected president of the united states again. that's what i said during impeachment. i said you all are acting as if you don't think a republican will ever be elected to the white house again. >> what's interesting is that it is not simply a question of who controls the senate and that's a subject we should maybe talk more about because i think the sense democrats are going to get the senate has receded a lot. i would guess at the moment it's at best 50-50. remember that confirmation of supreme court justices was carved out from a decision to confirm other justices by a simple majority at 60 votes. regardless of who controls the senate, it has to be bipartisan. if republicans refuse to cooperate this time around, if that's what it comes to, it's going to come back to bite them eventually. >> it will come back to bite them. i always believed, jeremy peters, that the president should at the end of the day have that decision.

the constitution gives the president that power. of course the senate is allowed to advise and consent in case someone is unfit to be supreme court justice. but it certainly seems like a lot of republicans believe that this is a way to win votes on the campaign trail. i don't get it. especially in senate races. >> absolutely. people like ted cruz i think given how they've stoked these fights over confirmations in the past believe it's a ticket to winning over the conservative grassroots. you mentioned, joe, that republicans are acting as if they'll never be president again. i think both parties are acting as if they realize something very stark which is that the senate is going to be split by just a few votes for the foreseeable future. in such a deeply polarized country we're not looking at a situation where any party has 60 votes in a filibuster approved majority. if democrats take over the senate, there is a very, very

high possibility that they go "nuclear" and eliminate the filibuster for supreme court justices. i expect to see that if indeed they do take over. >> again, if the democrats do that, they need to understand republicans will have the same option to do that in the future. >> two years. >> if i'm president and i'm hillary clinton and i'm being told by the senate i'm not going to get a supreme court nominee voted on for eight years, four to eight years, i would tell the democrats to go nuclear. we've got to step back from this. >> she and chuck schumer whether majority or minority leader will go to paul ryan and say do we want to have four more years like the last six have been and been at war nonstop or can we reach --

>> paul ryan may not be the speaker. >> he may not. we've heard negative talk over the past year about this. this campaign about washington and politics. i know i'm too optimistic. i am optimistic if donald trump gets elected president or hillary clinton gets elected president. with chuck schumer running the senate, i know chuck. i worked with him in the house. we disagree on a lot of issues but chuck schumer is tough and brash and very rarely makes it personal. he sits down and you push around and will come to a deal. i'm optimistic that americans are going to be surprised in 2017 about how washington is going to start working. i know i'll get killed on that as well as the map i showed.

i think washington is going to work better over the next four years than it has in a decade. >> let me take the under on that. i agree with you about chuck schumer. i was his finance chair in 1998. one of my closest friends. i like paul ryan. i worked with him on auto bailout. serious guy with serious ideas. the question is and problem is can he control his caucus? as we sit here today, since he became speaker, they've passed, i think, two significant pieces of legislation. highway bill and raised spending caps to deal with spending problems. there are 11 appropriations bill for the fiscal year that started a month ago. they have not passed a budget. his caucus is talking about -- not to cut you off. i'm waving you off because i could say the same thing about harry reid. harry reid is a -- >> this is not a partisan comment. >> i know it's not. i'm saying that harry reid is a poison when it comes to personal relations on the hill and

anybody that knows the hill knows that. chuck schumer is not. paul ryan is not. and so, yes, there have been problems in the house. i agree. there have been problems in the senate. i think chuck schumer changes the entire equation and next president of the united states, whoever it is, changes the entire equation. maybe i'm naive. >> let steve finish his thought. >> i agree with both of those things. it takes three to tango in this world and not two. paul ryan will try to tango. i just don't know how many people he's going to have behind him. the freedom caucus right now is talking about how to get more people from their group into this republican leadership. that doesn't go well -- >> choices are to turn away from chuck schumer and risk speakership for a party that will have lost popular vote in 6 out of 7 elections. >> lost popular vote in seven

out of eight elections. my republican party has to step away from the brink. got to stop doing things that will play well in certain segments of western iowa, in january of 2020, and need to start figuring out how to win the country back. >> look what happened this time. >> i hope your optimism is right. leading republicans who run powerful committees have already said we're loaded for bear with investigations for hillary clinton. >> and they've already -- they are still ongoing right now. they are loaded for bear on a number of levels. jeremy peters, gene robinson, thank you both. filmmaker michael moore joins us later this hour. and the hall where 90 people were killed in terror attacks is set to open later this week and

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>> welcome back inside cubs locker room. is there anyone you want to say hello to that you haven't thought about lately? >> yeah. you. we just won the world series. >> two hall of famers right there. bill murray and theo epstein. >> who was filming there? >> looked like fox to me. >> chicago cubs are world series champs. many fans waiting their entire lives to hear those words and it could not be better for the sport of baseball. more than 40 million americans tuned in to watch wednesday night's thrilling game seven finale. most watched baseball game in 25 years. the only two to beat that mark were games six and seven of the 91 world series between the braves and the twins. >> by the way, the braves and the twins, baseball purist will

remember that as strategically the best world series of all-time. 25 years ago. >> you can tell this morning joe stayed up to watch it. >> i was watching that series with joey when he was 4 years old. we watched every pitch. >> that number the other night is a huge number in the world of diminishing tv numbers. >> think about this. the nfl ratings collapse. it warms the heart that a game like baseball that people say are too slow. it's too old. it's past his time. my 8-year-old boy is obsessed with it. highest ratings in a quarter century. >> cubs fans are snatching up as many of the city's newspapers as they can prompting publications to hand hundreds of thousands of copies to the normal circulation numbers. the "sun-times" put out almost 600,000 extras. eight times the normal printing. victory parade is set for today.

the team will make its way from wrigley field at 10:00 a.m. south toward downtown chicago for a noon rally. there is at least one cubs fan who won't make it out for the festivities. a spokesman for steve bartman, the fan blamed for contributing to the fan's drought after interfering with ball telling "usa today" bartman was overjoyed the cubs won but does not intend to crash the parade. >> he can leave it behind him now. >> people of chicago, they should do with bartman what red sox did with buckner. it's a cleansing moment. buckner came back after they won the world series presenting the rings. wasn't a dry eye in the house. i would say one other thing quickly. a rabid cubs fan, of course he's a screamer. i haven't heard him scream in five years. >> the things he says -- >> screaming about the cubs.

afterwards you know what he wanted to talk about? we saw this this summer. he said it was a wonderful experience. the experience of his lifetime with his son. he wanted to talk about the people of cleveland. he said the most remarkable thing is here these people were broken hearted. they hadn't won a world series since 1947. as broken hearted as they were, they were hugging the son. high fiving him. i'm telling you. the people of cleveland the past six months have learned more about that city -- we saw it when we were there. they are incredible people. it's an incredible city. >> they love their city. >> they're on a great run. they put on a great rnc. lebron is back home winning titles. cleveland is going to beood for years to come took it to game seven. one more thing to put in here. the tweet making the rounds.

2016 world series cubs versus indians and world will end with score tied in game seven in extra innings. the date on that tweet november 14th, 2014. that guy is a rays fan named gio. >> what do we have next? >> bill krystol is here. last week he compared the race to poker saying donald trump would need an inside straight to win. this week he says the odds are improving maybe just an outside straight. we'll deal bill in when we come back. >> just don't. just stop. >> you want to see them? right there. one, two, three, four, five. >> just like today when he kept coming back at me with nothing. >> sometimes nothing can be a real cool hand.

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went to ancestry, i put in the names of my grandparents first. i got a leaf right away. a leaf is a hint that is connected to each person in your family tree. i learned that my ten times great grandmother is george washington's aunt. within a few days i went from knowing almost nothing to holy crow, i'm related to george washington. this is my cousin george. discover your story. start searching for free now at ancestry.com listen to me. i am captain of the track team, and if i'm late... she doesn't really think she's going to get out of here, does she? be nice. she's new. hello! is anyone there? rrr! wow. even from our standards, you look awful. oh, sweetie, what happened? girl: me? my friend becky got to talk to this super-cute boy, and i tried to act like i wasn't jealous, but i so totally was, and then, out of nowhere, this concrete barrier just popped up. maybe it was a semi. you mean you were driving? yeah. i mean, i know the whole "eyes on the road" thing.

but this was a super important text. maybe you have to know becky. texting? great. but it was only, like, 5 seconds, and i'm a really, really fast texter, so it wasn't even a big deal. actually, has he texted me back yet? [squishing sound] wow, i get, like, no bars in this place. i wonder if they have wi-fi here.

>> i would look right in her fat ugly face of hers. i like people that weren't captured. you should see this guy. i don't know what i said. i don't remember. a person who is flat chested is very hard to be a 10. our military is a disaster.

i would bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. i love war in a certain way. decades of lies and coverup and scandals have caught up with hillary clinton. hillary clinton is under fbi investigation again after her e-mails were found on pervert anthony weiner's laptop. think about that. america's most sensitive secrets unlawfully sent, received and exposed by hillary clinton, her staff, and anthony weiner. hillary cannot lead a nation while crippled by a criminal investigation. hillary clinton unfit to serve. >> donny deutch, two new ads going back to a very, very strong thing that's worked very well over the course of six months. donald trump just -- which one is stronger? >> trump. it's a piece of new news. hillary ad, which is brilliant and always worked, is baked in. other than the last words i never heard before, i love war,

great set of warords to put in there. the advantage trump ad has is a new piece of news in there and it has that tabloidy nasty and attaching it to wiener is a frightening move. >> you walk across your house and you hear the word pervert. anthony weiner. you just stop. presidential ad last weekend? it is. that's, like, wow. >> stop in the living room and listen. one thing i would say is facts are squishy in that ad. with he do not know that hillary clinton's e-mails were on this computer yet. we don't have that piece of information yet from the fbi. >> there's always a jump to criminal activity which donny has not been proven. >> i'm not being glib here. the fate, the future of our

world can be hinged on all kidding aside that this pervert was sending sex to a 15 year old. how fragile a world is. because this guy is a deviant and decided to start sexting with a 10th grader, we're here now in a very close election -- >> gives me so much hope. >> how fragile -- >> the lawyer in me requires me to use the word allegedly. he's not been charged. >> in washington we have bill krystol with us. how are you feeling this morning? >> what's going on? from inside straight to outside straight. we've been talking about the possibilities. what's the state in your mind? >> i think hillary clinton is ahead. in the tweet i think outside straight if you have four, five, six seven or odds are 7-1. i want to make a few stipulations about that.

so odds went down from 11-1 to 5-1 if you take that analogy. i think hillary clinton is ahead and will win by more than barack obama won by in 2012 and less than 2008 and i could be wrong, god knows, as i was during the primaries often. you know, i think she wins -- >> you think -- a lot of people think this. something that happened between '08 and '12? >> more hidden hillary clinton vote than hidden donald trump vote. >> what's the logic behind that? >> i think a lot of people are nervous about trump. i think there are many working class white women whose husbands are enthusiastic for trump who don't want to pick a fight at home that may go into the ballot booth and vote for hillary clinton as there are hidden upper middle class voters where it's embarrassing to be for trump. that's a guess. who knows. a better turnout operation. i think at the end of the day there will be default to safety, which is probably what hillary

clinton is. >> and so we don't really know what will happen the final week. we just don't know. in a change year, you tend to think, okay, final weekend. it's grg oing to break toward t change candidate. this year the change candidate is seen by 65% of americans, 70% of americans is unfit to be president of the united states. so do you have people that have been thinking i'm just arguing the counter here from what we usually argue, this trump guy, okay, hell with him. hell with him. then the weekend comes and they stop and they, go, can i really vote for this guy? so we don't know which way that breaks. usually what i have found is in every election it all breaks the same way. people together collectively, it's almost like they are connected collectively. they'll break one way we have to

throw them out or break the other way where we can't risk having him as president. >> the main challenge for hillary clinton someone that had the thought process donald trump can't do it instead of pulling the lever for hillary clinton, they stay home. that's a question. i have to tell you just being out on the road. this is antidotal. you can't necessarily make assumptions about the whole map because of this. the events that hillary clinton is holding in these swing states, they don't feel like a winning campaign in the final week. they are relatively small events. people are relatively excited but when you go cover the president, you show up, there are screaming crowds of people. the vibe is just entirely different. we really are in this grind it out phase. you can feel on the ground that enthusiasm. >> i want to pick up what you just said. >> can i -- i'll throw this to you for a second. a perfect time to bring up what mika and i saw four years ago in new hampshire. we go to new hampshire. we've been to romney events.

there are 30,000 people in pennsylvania. they were going absolutely crazy if you judge it by that crowd, mitt romney is going to win pennsylvania. we went to new hampshire. it was the last weekend for barack obama. it was the deadest crowd i've ever been to. we sat there and mika and i turned and we actually felt bad for the president and we were, like, nobody wants to be here. this is the deadest crowd. i only bring that up to say david axelrod knew all along, this is how much we're going to win by. i know that they are fighting the last war but it's indicative of the new era we're in. find the votes. i.d. the votes. drag the votes out. hillary clinton has that operation. >> and your previous point, the reason i am still sleeping at night and i think that's one to two points in the ground game and i think at the end of the game and i said it all along

it's about the women and women by nature and this is generalization are more risk adverse than men and i think when they do get in that box, the hierarchy of needs, the self-preservation is going to come over and women are going to overwhelmingly even more to bill's point, not tell their husbands. i'm worried. swing to hillary clinton. >> what do you make of the votes that are already banked? we live in an era where geo tv means more than ever before. >> i think the key point -- people open to voting for hillary deciding to skip the presidential line as greatest threat to her. having said that, i think it's a

change election. we have discussed this many times. having said that, if you ask people are you better off now than four or eight years ago, people do say they're better off. it's not a radical change election which you might need to elect a radically different candidate like donald trump and president obama's approval rating is above 50%. that has to help hillary clinton a little bit. people are less adverse to continuing the policies of the last eight years. i don't like them personally but people are less adverse to it than they were when first president bush was running in '92 and we lost to bill clinton. people didn't think -- it's not just generally they didn't think they were going in the right direction. they thought they were worse off. >> to casey's point, how fascinating that barack obama goes out on the campaign trail. he's a rock star. bernie sanders goes out and young kids are there and screaming and yelling and just that excitement. there may not be that excitement with hillary clinton. what we learned at least in 2012

is excitement does not equal voting. >> bill krystol, thank you very much. still to come -- >> who does harvard play this weekend, bill? >> yale next weekend. the big game. at harvard. you'll be there i know. you know alabama/ohio state, who cares about them. if you can go to the game, take the opportunity. >> i'll be wearing my y letters. >> big harvard/yale game on prime time network television. >> chris jansing joins us live from georgia, a red state that may be in play according to some recent polling plus steve kornacki, hallie jackson and kristen welker who is live from pennsylvania where clinton and trump are both campaigning today. but first, michael moore, filmmaker and "morning joe" guest. we're back in a moment.

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you know what i'm talking about. whether trump means it or not is irrelevant because he's saying the things to people who are hurting. it's why every beaten down nameless forgotten working stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves trump. he is the human molotov cocktail that they've been waiting for. the human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them. >> a portion of the new documentary michael moore talks directly with voters in battleground ohio. the republican nominee looked to capitalized on the film as an endorsement but oscar winning director said he's excited to vote democratic on tuesday and michael moore joins us now. good to see you again. >> thank you for having me here. >> michael, you know better than just about everybody you talk to that interviews you in manhattan or washington exactly -- not just trump voters but bernie

voters and disaffected voters have gone through because you've seen your beloved hometown of flint, michigan, what's happened to detroit over the last 50 years. talk about that and what's happening in your film. >> well, i live in michigan still. and i live amongst people who have been disaffected and have suffered as a result and used to be part of the middle class and no longer are. i know a lot of people that will vote for michigan not because they necessarily agree with him but the human molotov cocktail that they get to throw into the system that ruined their lives and get to blow that system up in the same attitude of brexit voters of industrial england. >> how is this disconnect occurred to such a degree that somebody like trump on the right and somebody like bernie on the left could come and completely

blind side the political establishment and the media establishment? >> there should be a documentary just on your show for the last 14, 16 months just to watch this trajectory that you just described. it's been amazing to see. it's not surprising to me though. it's not surprising to me that bernie won michigan even though that morning hillary was ahead in the polls by 8 to 20 points in all of the polls the morning of the primary. 12 hours later she lost to bernie. so these polls, i think they undercount the trump people. my optimism here is that we now live in a country that's 77% of this country is either female, people of color, are young adults between the ages of 18 and 35 or a combination of the three. that's 77% of the country. he has offended all three of these groups. on paper, we should be okay, right. but we don't get to vote at home on our remote control or our xbox. you have to go. so how many are going to vote on

tuesday? 50%? 60? 80? >> what do you say to your friends who you know are voting for trump? >> i say to them, the ballot box is not an anger tool. this is not -- you have every right to be upset. >> again, you understand what they're doing. but you obviously disagree for political reasons. >> very much disagree. and what you showed, some of the right wing websites and then trump tweeted it, they doctored a clip from my new movie here to try to make it look like i have this empathy. i have empathy for -- i understand why people are upset. but this is not -- this is not the day, because -- because like with brexit, the next day, or the next week, we're going to realize, oh, this -- i just wanted to send a message. well, okay, message sent. >> you know what. i have to say part of your brand, i'm sure you didn't intend, but you connect with those who feel left out, feel

behind. people who feel they have been screwed over. >> i live there, and i'm that angry white guy over the age of 35 with a high school education. >> let me ask you then, why hasn't hillary clinton closed the deal more with these folks, with people who feel like how you feel or the people that you have been connecting with over decades? >> in a positive way, to put in a positive way, how did bernie connect with those people so well? because that really was the revolution. >> like trump, even though he's been in congress for a long time, he's not perceived as a politician. what you see is what you get, and you believe that what he's saying is what he actually believes. >> what are you saying about hillary clinton? >> i say this in my film, i point out all the reasons, all the good reasons we should be excited about voting for hillary. i say that as a bernie voter, that there are so many good reasons to vote for her. that this is -- she is -- i mean, i have met her a few times. i don't know her that well.

it's interesting, whenever i have been around her, she's very likable, personable. you said this on the show, and a great sense of humor. >> hilarious. >> there's a massive cdisconnec. >> al gore, too. i had not met gore until he won and then lost, and i was speaking in nashville. he invited me to his house. two hours after i'm here with him, i m like, how come we didn't get to see this guy? he's funny. he's like, i know. i kn. but so this part of this film is me saying, look at this other side of hillary. this is a person who put her neck on the chopping block for us for universal health care 20-plus years ago. you know, all of the good that she's done, and whatever you might feel about her, and i have this exercise in film where i show people how you can still dislike and hate hillary and vote for her at the same time. >> okay. >> bernie did that yesterday in

his stump speech. >> he's always plagiarizing me. >> michael, you were a bernie voter first. there's still bernie voter whose are skeptical that hillary clinton will be as progressive as she was in the primary or has tried to project in the general election. what do you say to those people who say she's not really one of us as a progressive? >> well, she's not bernie. okay, so get over it. he won 22 states. a socialist won 22 states. why are bernie voters upset? it's like, we did something huge. and she's adopted two thirds of his platform. that's pretty good. i worked for jesse jackson in the '88 primary. dukakis didn't adopt any of jesse jackson's planks. this is a really -- she moved in the right direction. if you're for bernie and you don't see that, and you don't understand that if the senate is in democratic hands, the new chairm o the senate budget committee is senator bernie sanders, a socialist, in charge of the budget.

why -- this is a great day coming up on tuesday to really make something significant and profound happen. and get over it. she's not margaret thatcher. we're not asked to vote for somebody who is so not us. is she us? she's a good part of it is us. >> wow. >> and we need to understand that this person, i truly believe this, when she is sitting at that devin the oval office, she's not going to sign any legislation that's going to hurt kids, that's going to hurt old people, that's going to say the government has a right to your reproductive organs. we're going to be moving down the field in the right direction. >> steve. >> so to that point, and going back a little bit to what mika said. bernie sanders obviously is not in the general election. you have two candidates, and you said all those things you just said about hillary. trump has proposed a set of policies that would be highly destructive to the same people we're talking about. tax cuts for the rich, all this

kind of stuff. so why is this race so close? and why is it so hard for the folks you're talking to to be more passionately for hillary, and why are any of them even embracing trump? >> have you ever been angry? you know, sometimes you don't think straight. >> only at joe. >> but sometimes you're not thinking straight. and you're just -- you're in that moment and in that place and you see that he's so reckless. he's really an anarchist at heart. he says the words. he wants to blow up the system. >> how about angry for decades? >> when you act out of anger, you pay a price. four decades, perhaps. >> both administrations letting them down. >> yes, because these former autoworkers in michigan see it's to them, it's clinton/bush, bush, bush, clinton, and it's like, seriously. and so he and bernie represented something that, okay, i don't know if i agree with everything with these guys but they represent change. in the end, though, i truly

believe when people go in and pull that curtain, the majority, can i say the number again? 77% of the country is either female, people of color, or young adults between the ages of 18 and 35. that's the future. that's the america we live in. >> michael, yesterday, i went on itunes. my apple tv. my 13-year-old daughter and i are going through all the sherlocks, and i see number one, trumpland. number one. >> michael moore and trumpland. >> you're in over 60 cities and you don't even have a distributor. it's just exploding. >> i know. i cannot explain it. >> oh, my gosh. >> it's for two weeks it's been at number one. we fell off one day to the walking dead. >> it happens. >> you're good. >> michael moore and "trumpland" is playing in select theaters and also available on itunes. michael moore. >> come back. >> i well. thank you for having me. >> still ahead, economists think

employers may have stepped up hiring in the last month before the election. we'll see when the labor department releases the new jobs report this morning. and as we go to break, earlier, we heard from bernie sanders who offered an unappetizer choice between the two presidential candidates. here's mike huckabee's comparison this morning. quote, trump may be a car wreck, but at least his car is pointed in the right direction. hillary is a drunk driver going the wrong way on the freeway. all right. well, thank you. we'll be back. is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own? or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions? your personal success takes a financial partner who valuest as much as you do. learn more at tiaa.org

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good morning. it's friday, november 4th. 5:00 out west. with those on set, we have co-host of with all due respect that airs at 6:00 p.m. on msnbc, mark halperin. >> changed really the way we look at diapers. >> and ad man donny deutsch. yeah, wearing them. and in washington -- >> oh. >> hey, i will take a lot. >> let me tell you something. they warn you about getting roided out. >> steroids are one thing. diapers are the other. pimples on the back, is that what happens? >> i'm going to stop. >> columnist and associate editor of the "washington post" and msnbc political analyst

eugene robinson. let's get it together here and do the news. yesterday, the candidates' planes crossed each other's paths on the tarmac in raleigh, north carolina. that just hours after donald trump spotted air force one in miami, tweeting that the president should be creating jobs and fixing obamacare instead of campaigning. president obama will return to new hampshire for hillary on monday. >> and there you go. that underlines what you just said about new hampshire. barack obama, president of the united states, would not be going to new hampshire, a state -- >> remember those focus groups. >> a state that ten days ago people on this set people were saying was impossible for him to win. barack obama wouldn't be going to new hampshire. >> can we stay on new hampshire for one second. 49%, almost half the electorate, has said the new e-mail thing made them less likely to vote for hillary, and close to 60% of independents and third party candidates, 60% said that is the one issue that changed

everything. i don't care what anyone else says. >> the president's first campaign stop there since 2012. while vice president joe biden barnstorms in a late push across pennsylvania. and later -- >> and gene robinson, there's pennsylvania. so much focus on pennsylvania. i'll be the first to say that whenever republican talks about winning pennsylvania, i just laugh. there have been all these polls that show it four points, five points, two points. the internals from both campaigns suggest it's even closer than that. but we're seeing the president go there. seeing them have their final massive rally there on monday in pennsylvania. a lot -- pennsylvania getting a lot of traffic this year, especially at the end. >> well, you know, let's talk about these other states. but when you talk about pennsylvania, as you mentioned, joe, this is a quadrennial occurrence. republicans say this time we're going to get pennsylvania. they don't get pennsylvania. they're not going to get pennsylvania this year. >> you say they're not, gene.

why is the president, the first lady, joe biden, hillary clinton, bill clinton, they aren't all going to pennsylvania because they want to listen to great music. they're going to pennsylvania because they want to nail it down. >> well, you can hear great music in pennsylvania, but this is what happens. you know, pennsylvania looks close and the democrats go into pennsylvania and they win it. i mean, it's just historically, that's what happens in pennsylvania. i think it will almost surely happen again this year. >> almost surely is better than it's not going to happen. we have been dealing with a lot of not going to happen around this set for the past month. it's possible. i don't see it happening. i really don't. if pennsylvania falls, a lot of other states are going to fall. but obviously, everybody from president obama to joe biden, got the president, the vice

president, and the democratic presidential candidate going to be focusing on their like a laser the last weekend. >> and tim kaine, he's going to finish the campaign in the once thought to be safe virginia. this after hillary clinton made a late gamut to expand the electoral map with a visit to arizona this week while trump went to wisconsin and michigan. now clinton and her surrogates are finishing out the campaign with appearances in states that were once believed to be locked in for the democrats, with the nominee herself headed to michigan and western pennsylvania today. while donald trump will make stops in pennsylvania, new hampshire, nevada, and north carolina in the final hours. all states that had been leaning toward clinton. >> you know, mark halperin, just based on my reporting, forget the public polls, there's one that showed michigan at three. both camps think michigan is very competitive. i find that shocking. but both -- i mean, there's a reason hillary is going there, a

reason trump is going there. they are all nervous about michigan. >> well, again, they're not that many states in play. the clinton team has a lot of big sur gts. we shouldn't overread the fact they're playing some defense. >> hillary is going. >> they don't want to take anything for chance. if trump is going on offense, they're going to play defense. trump is behind in too many states. if he's going to become president, he needs a national surge beyond what he's already at to try to reshape the electorate in a more national way. she still is having trouble turning out certain members of the obama coalition, and he has had the gift of all this stuff in the news the energize the republican base. and in a state like michigan, he's going to do well with independents. may not win independents but he's going to do well. >> i wonder also, donny, if the clinton camp is still haunted by what happened in the democratic primary to bernie sanders and they're thinking once bitten

twice shy. we were supposed to walk away with michigan. bernie ended up beating us. we're not going to let that happen to us again. >> yeah, look. i am going to say it again. i don't think we would have this discussion if it wasn't for the comey thing. i don't think he had a choice. i want to step back -- >> comey didn't have a choice? >> i think he was damned if he did, damned if he didn't. i'm the biggest hillary, anti-trump guy there is. this is probably the last time i'm on the show until election day. throw everything else away. >> ever. >> no, really, i really believe this. >> here we go. his is going to be good. >> cue the music. >> are you trying to tell us about the balco investigation coming down? >> no, this is a bad guy. this is a nasty bully. we have always elected a decent human being. i don't care where the politics are. and hillary is tremendously flawed. this is a man who makes fun of disabled people. smoo something you wouldn't let a

9-year-old do. you guys are all professionals, you're not going to say it on the air, and you all agree with me. this is a darms, scary guy. i can't believe this is even potentially happening to this country. >> so why is this happening? >> we all know the reason. >> why is he getting closer? >> there are a lot of angry, disenfranchised people out there. >> could it be there are millions of people who feel the same way about hillary clinton? >> i don't think you can compare them. at his core, he's a bad guy. >> this is a problem that manhattan elites like us -- i am, like us, like people in georgetown, they can see how evil donald trump is, but because of their world view, they can't imagine that people in middle america -- >> i could imagine that. >> -- feel just as strongly about hillary clinton, think she should be indicted, think she and her husband have gotten away with everything. >> similar. >> in the past 30, 40 years. think that there's really not that much of a difference between the two, so why not vote for change? i'm not saying that's how i

feel. i'm saying when you give your sermon, i can find somebody in manhattan, kansas, sitting right next to you, just as compelling an argument on why they can't believe people like you would vote for hillary. >> absolutely. >> would that be legitimate if someone from -- >> it is -- i'm just stunned. i'm upset and worried. >> first on this charles c.w. cooke writes in the national review, democrats have run out of language to use against republicans. really? obama thought romney was a normal republican, but that's not how it came across at the time. sure, in 2012, obama ran a commercial arguing that romney wasn't one of us. sure, joe biden said that romney would put african-americans back in chains. sure, harry reid accused romney of being a tax cheat and a scoundrel. but in retrospect, he was fine. in fact, he was no threat at all. chill. fair as the charges are against so -- against trump so often

are, i couldn't help but think i would be watching similar accusations leveled against the republican choice regardless of who he or she was. as has been observed by men smarter than i, crying wolf has its drawbacks. when the rhetoric used to describe donald trump and mitt romney is indistinguishable to all but the most tuned in, something has gone seriously wrong in the culture. >> couldn't agree more. and this is a mistake when you say mitt romney kills cancer patients. and paul ryan pushes old ladies off the cliff. >> literally, there's video of an old lady flying off a cliff. >> when now they're saying oh, mitt romney. he's an honorable man, a great man. >> the good republican. >> four years ago, the tick was saying he was going to put blacks back in chains. this is, again, i speak. we all know the dinchs between donald trump and mitt romney. i speak to the republican voter who every four years, willie, hears in 2000, 2004, that george

w. bush is a nazi. and then in 2008, that sarah palin is somehow racist because one person in the crowd has a sign that calls barack obama a socialist. and then in 2012, mitt romney is killing cancer patients. well, donald trump is a different candidate than all of those men. a different character than all of those men. but try telling that to somebody in middle america who has grown up every four years hearing about how republicans hate black people, hate old people, hate women. and they have a war on women, and they have a war on black people, and they have a war on everybody who is not white. >> yeah. >> cried wolf. >> charles is right. >> i think the distinction for democrats is the one donny made. i saw dan pfeiffer, former obama aide, make it this morning. it was usually a toss of the coin. you could live with and work with mitt romney, john mccain, george w. bush. they were reasonable, experienced politicians. they were predictable in some way. donald trump, phifer says, is

russian roulette. you don't know what's going to happen. >> i totally agree with it. in the heat of the campaign, if marco rubio had gotten the nomination, we would have been hearing the same thing about he's going to put blacks back in chains which joe biden said about mitt romney. he hates women, there's going to be a war on women. we would have heard the same arguments. that's charles' points and a very important point for both sides. watch your extreme language because somebody just may come along that is dangerous. but it sure as hell wasn't mitt romney. >> a great point. >> the one distinction is democrats are saying things about donald trump's character that they wouldn't necessarily have said about say a marco rubio or a mitt romney. they're not just saying the policies are bad. they're looking at his kuth and behavior, the stuff that so alarmed donny and labeling him. i think that is a difference. >> still ahead on "morning joe," the last jobless numbers before the election for you. and they're coming out in less

than 20 minutes. can't wait to see those numbers. >> what they could mean for the presidential race. steve kornacki, hallie jackson, chris jansing, kristen welker all join us for the reporting and analysis. and just ahead, nate silver says, believe it or not, hillary clinton is in a worst position this year than president obama was in 2012. we'll talk about whether he has a point when "morning joe" comes right back. marie believes that her chicken pot pie gives you the perfect recipe for catching up with family. so she takes the time to prepare a golden flakey crust made from scratch. and mixes crisp vegetables with all white meat chicken and bakes it to perfection. because marie callender knows that making the perfect dinner isn't easy as pie, but finding someone to enjoy it with sure is. marie callender's it's time to savor and know there's even more to savor with family size pot pies. [music] jess: hey look, it's those guys.

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for adults 21 and over. it has important safeguards for families, like strict product labeling and child-proof packaging of all marijuana products. and banning edibles that would appeal to a child. raising a teenager, that regulated system makes a lot more sense than what we have now. plus, 64 taxes marijuana to fund priorities like after-school programs. personally, marijuana's not for me. but my mind's made up. i'm voting yes on 64. joining us from jacksonville, florida, chief political correspondent for the national review, tim alberta. his latest piece is a profile of republican vice presidential nominee mike pence. in it, he writes in part this. the republican vice presidential nominee is not oblivious to

external perception. he has been stung by criticisms from one-time allies in the evangelical and conservative worlds. yet, down the stretch of this campaign, he has tuned them out. in an interview aboard his plane, he draws heavily from his stump speech and offers few original or introspective observations about the extraordinary journey he's been on since mid-july. pence is now willfully insulated from the possibility that trump may indeed have committed sexual assault. from the harshest critiques of his decision to join the gop ticket, and from the reality that its defeat is likely. it's telling that while many of his allies are bearish about what election day will bring, pence is certain that an historic triumph is at hand. >> tim, thanks so much for being with us. a lot of conservatives that both you and i know who could never vote for donald trump have long said, mike pence is there, and maybe mike pence will be the

conduit, and maybe i can vote for him. even if i can't vote for him, at least i know he's there. i know his reluctance to say he would support paul ryan as a speaker this past week shook a lot of people up. what happened? and where is he now? >> you know, yeah, it was a very interesting exchange, guys. obviously, donald trump had made the comments about paul ryan being our very weak and ineffective leader, and had essentially, you know, suggested that ryan should be removed from the speakership. in the course of a pretty lengthy interview with governor pence aboard his plane, i felt obviously compelled to ask that question. but i didn't expect there to be any news made there. mike pence has stood by paul ryan throughout this sort of almost love triangle with ryan and trump being at each other's throats over the last couple months. so when mike pence refused to answer the question the first time, i pressed him on it. then he refused again. the third time, he said, look, i'm not a member of the house

republican conference anymore, and i wouldn't prume upon how those members should vote. and it was, i think, sort of a fascinating window into just how conflicted mike pence is as he sort of tries to stay true to who he is while also trying to stay loyal to his running mate and not trying to establish any daylight from him publicly. it was a very interesting exchange. i could tell on the looks of the faces of pence's guys sitting there with us that they knew something was off and he had mishandled the situation. one of them came back and talked to me and said let's be clear. if he were still a member, he could vote for -- he would vote for ryan. i said would he support ryan regardless? does he support him now? he doesn't want to get into that. he's not a member anymore. yesterday, the pence team got out in front of this finally and tried to correct it and said, no, he's 100% for paul ryan. it was just a very, very odd exchange. >> tim, it's willie geist. mike pence has had to over the

course of the campaign come out after pretty dark nights and days for donald trump. i'm thinking the "access hollywood" tape for example, put on a brave face and defend the candidate. things he probably privately finds indefensible. did you see that conflicted back and forth for him internally, with himself and his circle of people of having to go out and take flack for donald trump on some of these things? >> willie, you really can. it's almost visible on his face, and you can hear it in his voice. not only during our interview, but during his stump speech and in some of the national television interviews that you see governor pence do. you just can't stress enough that not only do these guys not come from a similar sort of idealogical world view, but they just have very little in common. these are not guys who are very much alike. and i think that, you know, you think about governor pence. he had this reputation in the house, joe, you probably know this, he didn't even allow female staffers in his office to

work past 5:00 p.m. he wanted to avoid optics the could be in anybody's eyes to be inappropriate, and now he's running with a guy who is facing all these allegations of sexual assault and who is caught on tape saying that he's grabbed women and how he can grab women because he's a celebrity. you can't think of two guys who are more sort of polar opposites. i think it's a real struggle for governor pence, and it has been since he joined the ticket to sort of reconcile these two things and what we have seen now, and what i write about in the piece, guys, is he has almost out of necessity sort of adopted this bunker mentality where he's sort of put on blinders and blocked out all of this noise from the outside, and he is sort of willfully insulated from any of the negativity, any of the doom and bloom. he almost just wants to pretend it doesn't exist because it makes his job in staying loyal to his running mate easier. >> tim alberta, thank you very much. >> thanks for being with us. >> coming up on "morning joe," a cbs news record says the fbi has

found e-mails related to hillary clinton's state department tenure, and hillary clinton was mum on whether she'll keep james comey to run the fbi should she win. this is all fodder for sean spicer of the rnc, who joins us live just ahead. for the holidays. before his mom earned 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback. pcountries thatk mewe traveled,t what is your nationality and i would always answer hispanic. so when i got my ancestry dna results it was a shocker. i'm everything. i'm from all nations. i would look at forms now and wonder

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coming up on "morning joe," donald trump is hoping to crack through the blue wall in pennsylvania. new monmouth polling shows he gains there a little bit and his gains may have been mainly in

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there's so much more brave than me. i wouldn't have done what they did. i'm brave in other ways. i'm brave -- i'm financially brave. big deal, right? he's real brave. i saw somebody backstage, big, strong, powerful. i said to the guys, you think i could take this guy in a fight? you think i could take them? they said all no. i said i agree. okay. >> but he's financially brave. >> financially brave. donald trump speaking in selma, north carolina, where seven medal of honor resip ynlts joined him on stage. the final jobs report before the election about to come out any minute, and steve rattner is back with a big picture look at what the next president will inherit. >> before i do, i have a present

for your guys. another pen for your collection. this one is special. >> i will be the greatest president that god ever created. >> oh, no. >> donny, you should keep that. >> that's all you, donny. >> be good now. >> all right. >> we like you as a landlord, but we don't like you as a president, donald, okay. >> this is awkward. >> all right. >> okay, so look. >> the steroids really affect your head as well as other parts of your body. steve, what do you have? >> donald trump's candidacy is predicated on a bad economy, lot of lost jobs, manufacturing, and there's some truth to that, but in fairness, there's a lot of good news. i noticed in the latest "new york times"/cbs poll, people think the economy is getting better. that's a higher number than we have seen in a while.

we're going to have the jobs number in a few minute. what's important to note is that the economy has been adding jobs at a very steady rate, about 170,000 a month for the last six months. and with the exception of one month, 73 months of job creation, which is a record. >> thought to be a skunk in the garden party, but wasn't there some magic attached to 200,000 that you have to at least get 200,000 a month to maintain -- >> it's a bit less than that. at 200,000, which we haven't even been averaging, the unemployment rate comes down. it's now down to 5%, which is the lowest it's been since before the financial crisis in 2008. so i think -- >> what's causing that? earning potential? what's happening? >> the economy is growing slowly but steadily. we had a 2.9% gdp number about a week ago for the third quarter. productivity, which is not good news, is not growing, so people are adding jobs and it's growing

very steadily. the expectations we'll see in a minute are more of the same. >> new job numbers are come out. the last one before election day. 161,000 added. economists were expecting 175,000. the unemployment rate has gone from 5% to 4.9%. if you're hillary clinton, that .1% drop means a lot. going to the polls at 4.9% unemployment, that's pretty strong. >> this is part of why barack obama's approval rating is up in the low 50s. while there's a lot of right strang, wrong track stuff. >> when was the last time we were under 5%? >> 2008. >> i thought it was much earlier. >> that's a tough question. let me give you some bad news. i don't want to make this all good news. why, though, is donald trump still doing so well? part of it is because we do have a lot of disaffected workers. what this shows is the percentage of people over 16 who are either working or looking for a job. and as you can see, it peaked at

67% really back around the year 2000. and then it went down, went up a little bit, but it's now down to 62.9%, which is the lowest level since 1977. we have fewer men of working age in our labor force than france does. we have about the same percentage -- >> stop there for a second. >> we have a fewer lower percentage of working aged men in our labor force, either working or looking for jobs, than france. >> holy cow. >> we have approximately the same percentage of working age women in our labor force as japan, which is not exactly thought of as a bagz. >> why are we doing so poorly? >> a lot of reasons. but this has to do with the people, the manufacturing jobs that have been lost, the plants that have been closed, the people who have lost their job and simply dropped out. as we talked about on the show last week, you had mortality rates go up, life spans go down, drug overdose problem, suicide problem. there's a big social problem,

even amidst all the good news about jobs. >> what about wages? how are wages doing? >> thank you for asking. so, turning to wages. >> why i'm here. >> he just makes these up, by the way. none of these things are true. >> none of these things are true. >> so -- >> i will be the greatest president that god ever created. >> thank you, donny. >> i should never have brought that here. okay, so there's actually some surprising news on wages. if you look at median family incomes as one measure of wages, you can see they peaked in 2008 in this period here. and this is all, of course, inflation adjusted. at 58,500 per family. and then they dropped as low as $52,496 a family down in this period. but what's not gotten much attention, and there's a lot of other wage series that bear it out, is starting in about -- they started to climb a little earlier, but really started in 2015, they have gone up quite sharply.

they're still below their previous peak, so the average american has not gotten back to where he or she was before the financial crisis, but there are other series that say the same thing. this does not mean if you're out of work, disaffected, if you're out of the labor force, you're still worse off, but for a typical american, and this again may be part of why the economy is helping hillary clinton at the moment, things recently have started to look better. may not have penetrated the political consciousness, but it's happening. >> it's bring in steve kornacki. he's live on capitol hill. we have been looking at a lot of numbers this morning, looking at a lot of states, it seems that the oddsmakers have it at about a 2 to 1 for hillary clinton. there is some tightening in some polls. other polls seem a little less responsive to the news of the last week or so. where do you put the race right now? what are you looking at? >> yeah, i mean, i think the single most interesting thing to happen in t last day or two is out of new hampshire because one

of the things we are been talking about and i think the campaigns are thinking about is that idea of sort of a blue state wall for hillary clinton, the idea that if everything else went wrong for the clinton campaign, in the final few days of this campaign, and donald trump started to pick up all of those sort of toss-up states, whether it was a florida or an ohio or a north carolina, that he would still need to make an incursion into one blue state. and everybody was having the hardest time figuring out what that state could be. now you see a real live possibility in new hampshire. we had multiple polls, i know you have been talking ability these. multiple polls out of the state really showing it's a toss-up race in new hampshire. if you believe in the concept of momentum at all, and i'm not sure i do anymore, but if you believe in the concept of momentum, it's on trump's side in new hampshire. you can now at least see the final piece of the puzzle that noend has been able to sort of identify. you can identify it now. you can say, look, and it's a huge if, if trump got everything to break his way in all of those

toss-up states, you can now point to the blue state that really looks within range of flipping. >> thatted with make the difference. so let's talk about polls -- talk about one, a state that i just remain skeptical about. colorado. the trump people believe they have had a shot at it for some time. now there's a poll out that shows colorado tied. i am a big proponent in the belief that demographics is destiny. i don't know how donald trump gets past the demographic shortcomings of the state to wip out west, to win in colorado. what are you seeing in that state? >> i feel the same way about it you do. i know there's been a lot of -- i get skeptical of the when a poll comes out that one side doesn't like, what do they do? they dig into the sort of the numbers on it and say this group is underrepresented. this group is overrepresented. i would say when you look at that university of denver poll for what it's worth, the share of the latino vote there that they have comprising that poll does seem smaller than we're

likely to see on election day, and in terms of all the voting taking place out there. keep that in mind, but yeah, i agree with you. there's a reason we haven't talked about colorado. a reason the clinton campaign pulled out months ago. now they're back in in terms of advertising. the rising latino population, how much donald trump has alienating latinos and also suburbanites. the struggle donald trump had with college educated suburban voters. you think about that around denver. a lot of things there aligned against donald trump. that said, you're right. you have that one poll. take it for what it's worth that says it's tied. there was a cbs poll that said three-point clinton lead. that's tighter than we expected to see in polls. >> i was going to say, i was surprised even by the three-point poll. we could talk about michigan as well with a three-point poll, and both campaigns going there. that's another state that have a big question mark. >> is it fair to say if you look at the polls over the last year, whenever there's a bad event, you know, a trump event, there's

a four or five point swing for five days and then it shifts back, and can we -- i would predict, obviously, the polls over the last five days have shifted. >> is this a question? >> yeah, i'm asking. would you, based on what you watched -- >> i wl be the greatest president that god ever created. >> i'm hearing voices. would you expect over the next day or two a little correction back towards hillary. it seems to be this elasticity. >> he's scared. he wants you to comfort him. >> please make it okay. give me my blanky. >> will you give donny -- >> a pacifier. >> give donny his pacifier. why can donny relax this weekend? >> if you're a clinton supporter and looking for something to latch on to this morning, here's what it is. that abc/"washington post" daily tracker, got a lot of attention a couple days ago when it put trump ahead by a point. one of the things they were pointed to, they said after the fbi thing, there's more enthusiasm for trump than there is for clinton.

that's changed. you have it up on the screen there. now in the three, four days since then, it has ticked up every day for clinton, ticked down for trump. clinton is back up three points. what that really reflects is the reason trump got ahead was that clinton had an exceptionally awful day the day after, the saturday after the comey news. that was last friday. saturday, it felt like in that poll the bottom almost fell out for clinton. it's a daily tracking poll so they're adding new numbers every day. since then, it's stabilized more in clinton's direction. you see what was once trump plus one, is now clinton plus three. that's the thing you're looking at now. >> on the other side of that equation, steve, what warning would you give to our dear friends in the media who have been saying for three weeks that this race is over? >> no, i think what you're saying -- >> by the way, you have not. even when trump hit the bottom, you have said just like us there's a chance for trump. it's an outside chance, but it's a chance. >> it exists. >> i think there's something to what donny was saying.

the reason i hesitated after the "access hollywood" video is because i thought to myself, how many times have we had a moment like this where it seemed like the whole world had collapsed around donald trump, his political obituary, his campaign obituary was written and two weeks later we're looking at poll numbers that suggest it almost never happened. again, i agree. like i'm not saying it's a 50/50 shot right now. the odds certainly favor hillary clinton. when i see a dead even race in new hampshire, i'm not saying it's 100% right now. >> all right, steve kornacki, thank you so much. and the new poll just came out of virginia. it has hillary clinton plus seven. >> all right. donald trump -- >> can we get a shot of donny quickly? hold on. >> i don't want to see donny. >> it works, doesn't it? >> he looks like somebody's grandmother. >> i think it's more of a michael landon '70s. >> no, not michael landon. >> i want to make my pitch to america with the flags behind me. >> america, everything will be okay. i promise you. >> like michael landon, you look

just like michael landon. >> all right, pa. >> that's bonanza pa. >> over the final weekend of campaigning before election day, we'll talk to chief strategist for the rnc sean spicer. and our road warriors are out in force. kasie hunt, hallie jackson, chris jansing, kristen welker all join us. they're just off their private jets to report to us. keep it right here on "morning joe." my business was built with passion... but i keep it growing by making every dollar count.

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those e-mails are going to be -- they're going to be some beauties in there. >> wow. it's always a good one. welcome back to "morning joe." kasie hunt back with us. and nbc news correspondent hallie jackson. >> they're off their jet. you get off your private jet. >> i wish we had private jets. >> you do, don't you? we have seen the picture. you have that, don't you? seriously. >> mostly commercial. >> and on capitol hill, chief strategist and communications director for the republican national committee, sean spicer. how is it looking? >> i can't believe you guys give out private jets. i took an uber x to get here. >> occasionally, we'll get like a prop, a cessna. >> i watching donny, i feel

underdressed. >> my gosh. >> you're always underdressed, sean. >> not sure what that was. so, let's talk about as we go into the final weekend of this campaign, we hear from the clinton campaign and also hear from a lot of press reports that the democrats are beating republicans on the ground. in early voting states. what do you say to that, and where are republicans exceeding your expectations? >> well, democratic traditionally win early votes. that's no surprise. i think where they're not telling you the entire context is that in every one of these states, they're not doing as well as they have done, and we're doing better than we have. you take a state like north carolina, they should be up by about 100,000 votes more than they are right now. they went into the 2012 election up by 355,000 votes and still lost north carolina. they now are 100,000 votes shy of where they were in 2012. if you look at the key counties in must-win states like ohio and

florida, they're down on their 2012 numbers. >> you're saying right now, and these are official numbers, you're saying right now the democrats are 100,000 shy of where they were four years ago in north carolina? >> yes. >> okay. what about nevada? >> in nevada, we've seen over 23,000 more republicans turn in their ballot than they did in 2012. in those key areas, you're seeing democrats not live up to the 2012 numbers. it's not just one or two states. it's literally go through each one of those battleground states, and our numbers are up, their numbers are down. and i guess, jeremy peters talked about it earlier and sent out a tweet that their consider cherry picking their numbers and, if you you look at the totality of the states, state by state, where they were in 2012, and where we were in 2012, we're vastly outperforming mitt romney and they're not keeping up with barack obama. it's not just overall demographics. the key coalitions they need that obama did so well stringing together, they're not bringing

home the key coalitions. >> kasie. >> sean, some of the sources i'm talking to, first, democrats are incredibly confident in nevada. they say there's no way if the early vote trends continue that they don't win the state, and republicans ymg i'm talking to say colorado looks more like 2012 for republicans when obviously they lost the state than it does look like 2014 when cory gardner won. >> well, i mean, here's the thing. with all due respect, i look at the numbers. that's what actually matters to me as opposed to what people think. you can actually look at the data and see these trends. the bigger question is this. colorado a few weeks ago was ten points out. it's now a dead even race. michigan, dead even. wisconsin, within the margin of error. new hampshire, dead tied. all of these states. if you look alt the trump map to 270, you take florida, ohio, north carolina, and iowa, then you need one of six states to pick off. whether that's virginia, michigan, colorado, new mexico,

or michigan, or you can do a new hampshire or maine too. >> which of those states, if you had to put one of those states at the top of the list for trump, which blue state does he win? >> i like where we are in michigan right now, and i think virginia is closing as well. again, we have four days to go. if you look at where we are and frankly where they are, so for all the talk about the democrats, not only where they're spending their time but their money, they're seeing a similar map, kasie. they put the president in north carolina because they're very concerned about turnout there. they're putting their money in colorado, wisconsin, and michigan, and they doubled down in the last few days because they're seeing that. what we're doing is getting our team around in those states and as each day comes in and we spend more and more data, we'll spend more time in the states we think we can pick off. we have four days and six states that trend our way. >> you talk about the data. your target smart file shows yesterday in nevada, you're being outpaced as par as registration by democrats, 42% to 37%.

in michigan which you just talked about, 38.5% to 36%. if you're getting outpaced on the early voting registration by party affiliation, how do you make it up on tuesday? what is the get out the vote operation on the day of election day to try to make up the ground because it's some ground? >> again, there's a big difference between registration and voting. i think that democrats have gone out there in a lot of cases done a good job of getting people to register. what woe have done is gotten people to vote. we have a much higher, 72% of newly registered republicans actually turn out. we have made sure that we take those low propensity voters, get them to the polls. in cases where they haven't voted early, insure we have a robust get out the vote effort where we're tracking every one of those voter whether they're a high propensity voter who has a history of voting or a newly registered voter. we have a very robust program in each state to make sure the get out the vote effort is getting all of our key folks out there. >> all right, sean, thank you so much. >> thank you, sean. >> i keep hearing michigan.

i hear it from the clinton campaign of sort of on background. i hear it from the trump campaign. i'm hearing it from the rnc. are you guys hearing it on the ground too? what gives? >> i am, honestly. i'm not going to sit here and predict, yes, that that's -- the state is going to go for trump, but democrats even privately will acknowledge that it is a state that is in many ways tailor made for donald trump. and i think the question really is, did trump capitalize on that? i'm not sure that they did this early enough to actually pull it off. >> and harold ford was also saying the other day, he was worried about michigan, but the question is, did they wait too long to get in there? >> that is the question. you heard a lot about michigan in the ginning, the rust belt state strategy, the centerpiece of that, the focus of it, then he needed to focus on florida and ohio and get into all these places where he was behind. now what you're hearing from the campaign is michigan, i know we talked about pennsylvania. i wanted to get a question into

sean about that because that is sort of the pulerennial -- >> the own lathing about pennsylvania that makes it interesting, no early voting. so if there is momentum, if it keeps moving that way, then pennsylvania more than a lot of these other states like nevada, florida, north carolina, you know, that's -- >> the potential to maybe -- >> but i don't believe it. >> such a deficit there. melania trump was there yesterday, and you know, a lot of conversation about it because she's somebody who pulls a lot of attention, but can putting melania trump on the trail in chester county where she was really sort of relate, can she relate to those suburban women who live there, i don't know. >> that's a question. let's get more road warriors in here. joining us now, nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing who is just outside atlanta, and in pittsburgh, nbc news white house correspondent kristen welker, who is covering the clinton campaign. kristen, we'll start with you. >> you guys are in the perfect state.

i don't think there's any way, and of course, i'm going to eat the words, i don't think there's any way unless there's a huge wave that hillary clinton wins georgia or that donald trump wins pennsylvania. and yet, both campaigns think there's a shot. >> well, you're feeling that on the ground here joe, and that's why -- go ahead, chris. >> i was going to say, obviously, she's keeping it close here. and this is the last day, by the way, of early voting, and early voting is up 6%. take a look a our latest nbc poll, a one-point race. what's interesting is obviously always when you go beneath those numbers and you see that the african-american vote here is 29%. so if there was a state that was going to swing that favored her, a traditionally red state, you have to look at the african-american vote. right now, it's favoring clinton 91% to 6%. here's the problem for her, and that is that the vote is down from 2012 and 2008. they always knew it would be because she's not barack obama.

having said that, they did that final push with soles to the polls. note that 40% of people here have already voted. there is no more soles to the polls because there's no more voting, early voting after today. it's all about tuesday. so it is going to be about the ground game here. so far at the beginning of this last final week, a million and a half votes had been cast. that's up 28% over 2008. up 32% over 2012. so you don't have to be a pollster or a mathematician to understand that hillary clinton is going to defy the odds and surprise you, it's because they have made the final push with the african-american vote. >> and kristen, in pennsylvania, obviously, the trump people still think they can win. and despite skeptics like myself, you have the entire clinton operation, including barack obama and michelle obama, closing out their campaign in the keystone state.

>> absolutely. next monday, joe, you'll see that big unity rally with secretary clinton and president obama and the first lady and former president bill clinton. it underscores how important this state is. the fact that the clinton campaign wants to defend it, feeling perhaps a little jittery as they're seeing the polls getting tighter. and just to follow up on what you're saying, they want to sols solidify theupport they already have, the path to 270. she's not focused at this point on trying to win over new converts. she has to hold her ground in states like pennsylvania, where the polls are getting tighter. and she is going to michigan later today, as you're all talking about. that's raising some eyebrows. as i have been saying, they are still have that memory of that big upset during the primary when bernie sanders came back and won michigan. the reason why you have a lot of working class voters there who they think fit right into donald trump's message and who could potentially swing for donald trump. take a look at the polls, though, to see why there is some

trepidation within the campaign. secretary clinton still has a lead in pennsylvania but it's five points according to one poll, four in another, two points in another poll. she's added an event in new hampshire over the weekend, and that's because it's all tied up in new hampshire. take a look at this latest poll. this is suffolk university. 42% for secretary clinton. 42% for donald trump. so she's really going back to basics. she's going to talk about the economy here today, trying to energize women voters. she's also pulling in a lot of big names. not only top surrogates from the political world, but from the entertainment word as well. she'll be joined by jay-z later. >> leaving no stone unturned. >> thank you, kristen, thank you, chris. >> those new hampshire numbers i think are actually really important potentially because yes, we're still in a situation where trump has to run this table. if to win, but there are a lot of scenarios that get him to 266. if he does all the things he needs to do everywhere.

new hampshire is potentially enough to get him where he needs to go. >> we had people saying no rational human being -- i said, actually, new hampshire seems to be a possibility for him. and now, a week later, it's a possible. >> yeah, and look, new hampshire is a state that makes up its mind at the last second. they're willing to swing back and forth. it's not a florida or an ohio where you have the ad spending and the ground games and all of that. >> and who is doing better there? kelly ayotte really has taken off lately. just like in nevada, joe heck has gotten sort of the wind at his back now. >> i think kasie i would love to know what you think. i think new hampshire is a state where the comey news would resonate. you know what, that's why we -- you know, and kind of go back to their initial support for trump. >> there's lines for a lot of things for new hampshire voters. >> let's look at the senate races. not only did they put up the new hampshire average, kelly ayotte zooming ahead of the governor

there. looks like she's moving in the right direction for her campaign. and republicans are increasingly bullish on keeping the senate. marco rubio, there was a rubio poll out that shows one point ahead, but one came out yesterday now has rubio up by six points in the q poll, other surveys show it closer. the same poll has democrat katie mcginty one point ahead of pat toomey. other polls have mcginty more than that, but this one, a one-point poll. in north carolina, deborah ross leads richard burr, 49% to 45%. this is also a little outside of the margin where we have seen, where most show richard burr tied or clinging to a one or two-point lead. >> i think taken together, what you just kind of showed was the potential impact of this fbi news on these down ballot races. we were waiting to see if that was going to happen. as the days go by, democrats are less and less optimistic they're

going to be able to take back the senate. >> that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> thanks so much. thanks, joe. hey, there, i'm stephanie ruhle. this morning, the end is near. four days to go. and no surprise. both sides are getting even nastier. >> if donald trump were to win this election, we would have a commander in chief who is completely out of his depth and whose ideas are incredibly dangerous. >> most dishonest person ever to run for office. >> and a blockbuster new report alleging new proof that the kremlin, that's right, russia, putin, is all in for donald trump. the reporter who broke that story joins us live. and a nightmare scenario for all of us. if donald trump wins new hampshire, the electoral college could tie. now, two polls have the granite state in dead heat. and a big, big backlash to melania trump's speech. criticsay