writes the polls are close, enough that the possibility of a victory for mr. trump is still quite real. the associated press says, clinton's winning map appears more fragile than it once did. and according to the "washington post," trump, quote, has a new reason for optimism as a growing number of states appear potentially within his grasp to back up what michael steele was saying, and here's the latest real clear politics electoral map. look at all the states in the toss-up category, which are in gray this morning. >> let's go through those states. you look at early voting, willie. three states really come to mind there. you look at florida, look at north carolina, and look at nevada. >> yeah. >> let's just start with florida. it's the big prize. trump obviously, there is no path to 270 without florida. democrats don't get things in florida where they think they did much better. the trump people will tell you that they've done better with, for instance, white voters, out

performing. if you read the politico article by mark c caputo yesterday, it'a bit of a wash. maybe slight advantage to clinton with early voting. you go to north carolina, there's a surprise. trump's done better in north carolina, the voters are older. they're whiter, and they're less democratic than 2012. but you go to nevada, and here's the thing, trump has to win all of these states. you go to nevada, i think everybody that's looked at nevada says that's a smashing clinton win in early voting. >> yeah, jon ralston, the famous reporter out of nevada said looking at the early voting among latinos even just in clark county, the margin is so much bigger than four years ago that that alone would tip the state toward hillary clinton. the interesting thing ability florida is, yes, he has to win that. that's obvious, but he could win florida, ohio, and north carolina, and still not get the nomination. so all those swing states that we have always looked at traditionally saying a candidate has to win, yes, he does, but he

also has to win some of the other states, some that are leaning democratic, michigan, wisconsin, kaultd kaucolorado, pennsylvania. he has to pluck off a couple of those as well. >> does he have a path to win? yes, he does. is hillary clinton still the -- not overwhelming favorite, if you look at upshot, they say two out of three chances hillary wins. if you look at the upshot, i think they say 8 out of 10 chances. mike, yes, donald trump has a pathway to 270. but he's got to win absolutely everything. >> well, he does. he has to run the table. there's a level of concern in the clinton campaign in the last 48 hours that wasn't there at the end of last week. i think they now regard, as we were speaking on friday, they now regard michigan as a potential brexit state, bradley effect state. there's really no hard evidence that she's going to win that going away or win it at all. the president of the united states is going to ann arbor today in a last-minute effort to shore up michigan.

>> by the way, that tells you right there for people who say the race is over, i don't think anybody is foolish enough to say that anymore. barack obama is in ann arbor, michigan, the day before the election, and they finish up in pennsylvania. >> and the reason for michigan is there's no early voting there. you have no indicator of how michigan -- >> same thing with philadelphia. >> pennsylvania. >> let's go through the new slew of state polls showing the race is coming down to the wire. we look at ohio, the cbs/ugov online survey has donald trump one point ahead of hillary clinton in a virtual tie, 46% to 45%. pennsylvania, clinton and trump are within the margin of error with each other in the new morning call poll. clinton at 44%. trump at 40%. gary johnson at 7%. >> let's stop there for a second, mika. that's the thing, mark halperin. i keep hearing that michigan is competitive. and by the way, i'm not hearing this from talking heads on fox

news. i'm hearing this from the clinton campaign. just like you're hearing it. they're worried about michigan. pennsylvania, ico keep hearing that pennsylvania is close. i just don't see in public polling evidence that it is within like one or two points. it always seems to be three points or four points. what are we missing here? >> well, look. the clinton campaign does not have nearly as much data in a state like michigan or pennsylvania as they do in florida and north carolina. states they have long known were going to be battlegrounds and where they have built up so much data that they can say with confidence as little as one point, the ican say we're ahead one point. we know so much about the early vote, the demographics in the state, our lead is small but durable which is the same phrase president obama used in his re-elect. pennsylvania and michigan, if you go by the public data and even by the private data, if you're a math person, you're just going zeros and ones, they're not competitive on paper. there's just the human element

of is there a hidden vote, a brexit situation, is there an enthusiasm gap? it's that human element that can't be quantified that is what gives democrats a little bit of concern, that somehow trump could win. but it's more caution than it is sort of panic or fear of the unknown. they simply don't know enough about what's going to happen in those states to feel comfortable that she'll win. >> mark, the clinton team, if you go back to the primaries, the clinton team shocked by what happened in michigan the last time. >> against bernie. >> it does seem to be, if there is a brexit state, and nobody is suggesting there is, but that it seems to me as mike said that seems to be the word attached to michigan right now. you were there with him last night. at the rally there. and also throughout the day. what did you see? >> five states, five states that barack obama won twice. five states he doesn't need to win all of but he needs to win

at least three and maybe four in order to win. the michigan rally was very big and impressive. it was in a suburb of detroit which is the fourth largest city in the state, and big crowd, and he had to adjust throughout the day. had a second of five rallies, the comey word came down, and he had to deal with that. >> look at that crowd. >> it was a big event and very enthused crowd. the human element is the thing i keep pointing to. you know, there's a supply and demand issue. his first michigan rally. so people, a pent-up demand to see him for people who like him. as we said earlier, even if he wins four of the big five, even if he wins iowa, ohio, north carolina, and florida, and i still have real doubts about his ability to win north carolina, he still needs to find other states. what yesterday was about was finding that other state. could it be michigan, could it be minnesota where he went yesterday. could it be pennsylvania, where he also went. he also went to virginia. i done think the chances of that are good. the reason she's still the overwhelming favorite as she was

from the beginning is trump is trying to put together a plausible 270. she can break his back with a single win. a win in north carolina, a win in florida. somehow a win in ohio. and like i keep saying, there's a human element. if there's something going on, particularly unenthusiasm, he has a chance. >> late yesterday, the fbi director saying after a hasty review of the newly discovered e-mails, there was no plausible reason for any charges coming. and michael steele, i'm just wondering at this late stage, does this impact in some way in any way? >> i think it does. the problem is, what you had nine days ago was comey coming out and saying, oh, there may be something here. meanwhile, voters are still going to the polls in early voting. that had inm pact during that period. then he comes out in the end, three days before the election and says there's nothing here. keep moving. >> i think it makes people even more leery. i don't know. >> i agree with that. i think it also puts a chill on

her vote. it really does. that human element that mark was talking about. >> completely changed the dynamics of the race. mike barnicle, i had an college professor, professor peerson, who said when a jury hears evidence that's inadmissible, it's, quote, hard to unring that bell. >> joe, there's no e-mail story that's going to help her. none. today's e-mail story does not help her. it's a constant reminder. and she doesn't need that. the story, this has the most impact other than on voters on the fbi. i mean, at some point, we're going to have to sit down. people are going to have to sit down in washington, not us, and decide, what is wrong with the fbi? what happened internally in this vaunted agency. >> hopefully the lesson is for future fbi directors not to play this out in public. you put your flag in the sand with the press conference explaining all the reasons, all the things hillary clinton did

wrong and saying you wouldn't recommend prosecution, and then putting out a letter and then another letter. >> his problem was an internal one. there were agents acting and putting that information out there, so he had to, you know, cover the agency's you know what in a sense. >> i'm not sure what he's doing. >> even david corn said last night, not a right wing pundit, that he probably had to because of the leaks. >> right. >> and he had to be as transparent as possible. i still think ed rendell had this right, the guy was a prosecutor and a guy who was a politician, and ed rendell said, yes, he probably, because of what he said before congress, and quite frankly, with a very bad precedent he set after not indicting her, he had to be transparent. he really should have put in a really tough hard line along with that saying, we found new e-mails. we have to look at these e-mails because we told congress we would keep them updated. we're updating them. but absolutely, but this is the

line, though. absolutely nothing, nothing contained in this statement suggests that we have found anything that would lead us or any reasonable person to believe that hillary clinton has done anything to suggest it. but you guys have to give us space to investigate this. he needed another tough line. this sort of, you have to rendell thing. here's rendell. this is what rendell says. >> prosecutor, politician. >> he understands both sides of it. i think ed rendell nailed it here. >> i think he had to do what he had to do because of the leaks, but what he didn't do and what he should have done, he should have put a sentence in that letter that says, look, we haven't had a chance to review these e-mails. no one should infer anything from the action other than we're doing our job. >> all that said, if i were hillary clinton, listen, i agree with him. i think because of the bad precedent set, he had to do it. that said, if i were hillary

clinton or on the hillary clinton campaign, i would be so pissed off. i would be so angry. >> if he had shown that letter he put out to a decent lawyer, the lawyer would have taken out the word pertinent and the letter may have worked. >> pertinent. and i will tell you, that is the word. that may be, quote, pertinent. instead of saying, we found these e-mails. do not infer anything. you're exactly right. >> still ahead on "morning joe," donald trump says election day will be even better than brexit. >> believe me. >> we'll ask clinton campaign strategist joel benenson whether he agrees. >> plus -- >> what's come out since suggests that it's probably more likely explained that he knew that the fbi was not only a leaky sieve, but there were people within the fbi actively working, actively working to try to help the trump campaign. this is just absolutely staggering, and it is a massive blow to the integrity of that

body. and so he probably felt pressure to do something because he felt like subordinants were going to do it if he didn't. >> accusations fly over james comey's handling of clinton's e-mail. is he trying to be a man to all people? but first, a man of all people, bill karins, with a check on the forecast. >> that's nice. that's very nice. let's get to the election day forecast. we're looking very warm across the country. no issues whatsoever. north, east, ohio valley. we could have rain to deal with from st. louis to ohio. also rainy weather in louisiana, but nothing to keep you from going to the polls. florida looks great, and also looking great in the west. probably one of the states with the worst weather conditions is in alaska with a big storm in the gulf of alaska. anchorage, 35 and a little bit of rain. these are our states, the ones that we're either in the republican side or democratic side, and these are the toss-up states. as far as the weather goes, ohio, out of all the toss-up states, probably looking at the worst weather. going to see on and off periods

of rain, especially in the afternoon to columbus, toledo, cleveland. in florida, itself, which is a huge one that we're still watching, not as bad. looking partly sunny to mostly sunny in almost all of the state. pensacola, a little more cloudy but still dry there. as far as the electi day forecast goes, we couldn't look for a warmer forecast and we don't have any snow, we don't have any ice to worry about on the map. north carolina looks good, too, by the way. temperatures in the 70s and 60s. arizona, no problems either. so as far as this election day turnout goes, no excuses from the weather department. mild and partly cloudy skies just about everywhere. new york city, we have a nice sunrise this morning after a cold start. beautiful afternoon for you, and what a november it's been across this country. with near record warmth. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.

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all of the wrong things about donald trump. but here's what i want you to remember. i want to be the president for everybody. everybody who agrees with me, people who don't agree with me. people who vote for me, people who don't vote for me. so let's get out. let's vote for the future. let's vote for what we want for our country and our children and our grandchildren. god bless you. >> all right, joining us now, washington anchor for bbc world news america, katty kay. hi, katty. >> i think she looked like she was having fun. >> having fun. >> skies opened up on her midspeech. the crowd was scattering. >> she weathered the storm. >> she weathered the storm. >> kind of symbolic. we have the must-read opinion pages for katty. "wall street journal," the political mr. comey. in july, he publicly exonerates

mrs. clinton in extraordinary precedent. two weeks before she is to be nominated for president, though that is not his responsibility. then 11 days before election day, mr. comey sends a letter to congress saying the fbi has found new e-mail evidence. he comes under ferocious democratic assault for meddling in the final days of the campaign. then, two days before the election, mr. comey sends another letter exonerating mrs. clinton again. and washington's political class wonders why americans don't trust government? it's hard to avoid the conclusion that the main point of mr. comey's many political interventions has always been to protect mr. comey's job and political standing. >> katty, he seems to try to be all things to all people. he doesn't indict hillary clinton legally, but he goes out and indicts her politically. he sends a letter and then he sends a follow-up letter on the

eve of the election. >> yeah, and i think the most telling line there -- >> the same one i'm thinking. >> no wonder people around the country mistrust the political class. >> that's what i think. >> and the tragedy here is the fbi has become part of the political class, which it never should have done. i can understand that mr. comey was worried about the leaks and felt he had to move fast to get through the e-mails, but he could not have sent that letter to congress without what a bombshell he was causing in the political campaign. i would love to be a fly on the wall in the first meeting if hillary clinton were elected between then-president clinton and director comey to see how that goes because it's hard -- if she is elected, it's hard to see how that relationship between the head of the fbi and the head of the white house survives in a way that is productive for the country. >> there are 100 different ways, mark halperin, that letter ten days ago could have been written in a clearer way, that provided

lisz political fodder to hillary clinton's enemies than it did. >> you know, we all love the "wall street journal" editorial page and read it because they're sharp. i think that was confused. they said comey was trying to save himself or save hillary clinton. i said all along, i thought every step of the way, he exercised horrendous judgment. inappropriate behavior for the head of the fbi. in the end, you know, ten days ago, the clinton folks said comey's letter putting her back in jeopardy seemingly was helping them to energize people. i was at those five trump rallies yesterday. four of them occurred after comey's announcement. and people were fired up and angry about it, trump supporters. but some of them were demo demorealized as well. it's a challenge now for the trump campaign to try to take comey's behavior and make it something they can energize their folks rather than demoralize them. >> you mentioned the piece, you're not sure where it's coming from. it's coming from hatred of

trump. they hate trump, and their heads are spinning between -- >> whose heads are spinning? >> i'm telling you right now, you can see it, and when you read it, but here's the bottom line. i think you're right. that one line is the key to the whole piece. no wonder people mistrust washington. you have on the justice department side this meeting with the attorney general and bill clinton. now you have the fbi not knowing which end is up. right before a political presidential election. and the "wall street journal" is furious because they're so anti-trump, and they're like, what are you doing? and what are they doing? two days before the election, except perhaps doubling down on how much people hate washington and ultimately, i think this comey move could help trump. i really do. >> how is that? >> i think it plays directly to the narrative. >> because people are -- like mike barnicle said, when people are talking about the e-mails, they're not talking about other things. katty, can i ask you about brexit really quickly?

does this -- because people are saying, well, michigan is -- could be like brexit. not really. i mean, the brexit polls were pretty tight at the end. >> the brexit polls had been fairly tight all the way along. but actually did show leave ahead in the last few days. >> but nobody believed it. >> there were a couple other factors people looked at instead, and for some reason, sterling rallied and the markets rallied. we have been watching the markets, too. every time there's good news for clinton, the markets rise. every time there's bad news for clinton, the markets fall. people seem to think that's a good predictor. we looked at sterling, markets, and the betting markets, and the betting markets, the betting odds had leave losing. and the remain camp winning. but actually, what turned out had happened is lots of people in london had been betting, and because london was a remain hub, that skewed the betting market. there were lots of other factors that came to play that people looked at and didn't look at the

poll. you know, your polls are better. our polls are bad. they were terrible in the 2015 general election in the uk. they had cameron in a very tight race and he won comfortably. i try to keep myself looking at the aggregate of polls at the moment. if you look at the aggregate of polls, she still has more paths to the white house than he does. that's been the way it has been all along and the bottom line before the election. >> coming up on "morning joe," he called george w. bush the worst president ever. john mccain dumb on the war in iraq, and mitt romney the least interesting man in the world. this weekend, bill maher ate his words. >> i know liberals made a big mistake because we attacked your boy bush like he was the end of the world. and he wasn't. and mitt romney, we attacked that way. i gave obama a million dollars i was so afraid of mitt romney. mitt romney wouldn't have changed my life that much or yours or john mccain. they were honorable men who we

disagreed with and we should have kept it that way, and we cried wolf, and that was wrong, but this is real. this is going to be way different. >> a lot to talk to rick tyler about. he joins the conversation ahead on "morning joe." when a moment turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines,

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>> our soul, i want to grow up in a world where my daughter has no limitation, where our daughter has no limitations. she feels like she can be whatever she wants to be in the world. and this other guy, i don't have any ill will towards him. but his conversation is divisive, and that's not an evolved soul to me. he cannot be my president. he cannot be our president. once you divide us, you weaken us. we're stronger together. >> look at the spirit in this room. and you know what. i don't need beyonce and i don't need jay z, i like them. i don't need -- i don't need j. lo. and i don't need jon bon jovi. nice guy. they're all nice. they're all nice. but i don't need them. we have far more people.

it's demeaning to the political process. so they fill it up, but they didn't even fill it up. but they bring a lot of people. they do the concert. a lot of people were offended by how bad the language was. >> yeah. >> joining us now, clinton campaign chief strategist, joel benenson. >> how are you doing? i was going to say, mika, beyonce, why don't we have a fan to blow our hair back? i need that. what's wrong? he always has that. mika needs that. come on, bee and jay, they have that. we need that. we do have it for carville and schmidt. they look like -- >> they don't have hair. >> who's the pan flutist? so really quickly, new poll came out in north carolina that's 44/44. what is that, alex? >> north carolina. >> quinnipiac, 44/44. okay, joel. so right now, if you look at the national polls, we had two

national polls out today that show a four-point lead for hillary clinton. this morning. are you guys seeing the same thing internally, or do we just not pay attention to the public polls? >> i don't pay much attention to the public polls but i think you have heard me say a lot this is going to be a low to mid single digit race. >> up about three. >> somewhere between three and six. that's a narrow range, but if you look at theory of presidential campaigns, that's where they tend to end up. we don't have a lot of blowouts here. >> we look at the public polling, and a lot of really close states. it seems like there are a lot of really close states. are you seeing that in your private polling as well? >> well, look, they're battleground states for a reason. we expect them to be close. that's why we campaign largely in somewhere between 9 to 12 states each cycle. >> but they have all tightened up, right? >> some have and some haven't. >> which have not? >> the key here at the end, the ones we know that are going to be close, down to the wire, particularly florida, although we think the early vote there,

particularly the numbers we have seen overnight, we're now almost to 2012 levels with a very diverse coalition. >> florida, naforth carolina. >> north carolina will be close, ohio will be close. those are the three that are likely to be the closest. >> what about nevada? are you feeling good about nevada because of the early vote. >> the early vote and clark county vote looked encouraging. we had more, i think, door knocks and phone contacts in this last weekend than we have ever had before. >> what are you seeing -- >> we have people waiting to get into the phone banks. >> what are you seeing in michigan? a lot of us are surprised. >> i'm interested in this. >> it doesn't look like a battleground. >> what's going on there? >> i just saw jeremy peters. we have game day states, we call them, but they have very little or no early vote. michigan, new hampshire, pennsylvania. you have to do it the old fashioned way. you go into states where you want to do the traditional get out the vote, last stops, gin up your people. get them to the polls. the key thing with michigan in particular, because it's a game day state, you know, we hold

michigan, which i believe we will. then his path, trump's path becomes he has to win all four other big states. pennsylvania, ohio, north carolina, florida. i don't see that happening. so we have had a map here that we have in executing all the way through. >> looks pretty good for you guys. >> there are a lot of road block states where if we win them, we just make his path harder. he's trying to thread a needle. we wanted to be in that position. >> if you win iowa, he has to win michigan. >> there's a lot of plays like that. that's why everybody is talking about how narrow his path is. he's drawing an inside straight. we never wanted to have our backs up against the wall like that. we feel we don't. we're playing offense. >> talk to me about pennsylvania. you have three different regions, pittsburgh, philadelphia, central pennsylvania. i was in central pennsylvania yesterday. and you can sort of feel there's a lack of enthusiasm for secretary clinton. where does pennsylvania go? >> central pennsylvania always

leans a little more republican, mike. you know, james carville had a famous line about pennsylvania. it's philadelphia on one end, pittsburgh on the other and alabama in the middle. he said that many years ago. central pennsylvania has changed a lot. you have smaller cities that are coming back a little bit. but winning, you know, the kinds of voters we need around not just in the city of philadelphia but the counties around philadelphia, counties around pittsburgh, where we get african-americans, latinos, suburban women, college educated women and not college educated suburban women. we feel good about pennsylvania but we're going to hit that stop tonight. obviously, one of the more game day voting than early voting and getting our vote out is going to be the key to us winning the state. >> the comey letter, the latest one. >> right. >> too little too late? >> i think i have been here a lot talking about this. i think for most voters, they made decisions about this e-mail thing a couple months ago. the last couple of episodes here

are -- could be a distraction. we haven't made them a distraction. hillary clinton has been going out, talking to voters. going to close her argument talking to voters about their lives. that's what people are making these final decisions on, is take a look at these two people. which one of these people is really going to create the america i want for my kids and grandkids? and a better future for me. that's what people are going do be voting on, i think, and anybody making their mind up in the last 24 hours, that's what that's about. >> given the map y laid out and the difficult path donald trump has, if hillary clinton wins florida, let's say the polls close and the northwest part of the state at 8:00 eastern time and some call says she has won florida, that means the race is over, right? >> pretty hard to see a path for donald trump if florida gets called early. the one thing about the northwestern part of the state you have to remember, willie, is that the lines there are often very long. sometimes they can't call it. they have occasionally kept the polls open a little bit to make

sure the people on line get to vote. >> when we know how florida has gone, will we know she has 1? >> it's called early, it will be a big factor. >> what are your concerned about north carolina? >> north carolina is a state democrats only won in one out of the last six elections. we won the popular vote in five out of the last six going into tomorrow. north carolina, we won it in 2008 by two points. we lost it in '12 by two points. so this is going to be a close state. obviously, i mentioned road block states before. it's one of the ones if we win north carolina, just as with florida, as willie was just talking about, holding pennsylvania, virginia, makes it very difficult to see any path to 270 for donald trump. so we're on offense. we feel we're playing a strong hand going into tomorrow. >> iowa? >> iowa has been close all the way through for us. >> we saw the morning register poll. why is he over -- as a republican, i look at iowa as that's the state obama won.

republicans have had a hard time in the last 20 years winning iowa. what's going on. >> in presidential elections in the last six, i think we have only won it three times. i think we won it half the time. >> in '08 and '12? >> i think '08, '12 and maybe one other. the thing about the register poll and it's considered very good, but i believe the pattern is she's screening out from her likely voter model people who say they're probably going to vote or a 50/50 chance of voting. we know from our scientific look back at people who told us in their polls they were probably going to vote or might not vote that the vast majority of them actually vote. iowa, with that being said, has been very close all the way through. rural state. a lot of older voters, not college voters who have been republicans for a long time. tough folks to move in a close race. we'll see. >> final state that's vexing for me at least, new hampshire. this is a state that hillary clinton has led all year over

the past week, everything has tightened up there. what's happening in new hampshire? >> a lot tightens up at the end. >> that's natural. >> you have some folks going home, defectors going home from the third party candidates. you have to keep in mind, you know new hampshire well. the most independent state in the country. it's where people like barnicle should be living. all his friends from boston moved there, right? a lot of his friends from boston moved up there. it's like 50% of the voters there are registered independent. but you know, so they can go either way on election day. we have seen that they can be volatile. i think right now, i don't think trump at the end of had day is the kind of candidate who appeals to voters who have largely they're very educated, highly college educated state. suburban voters. a lot that comports with our coalition. i feel pretty good. again, a game day state. i mentioned three, new hampshire, pennsylvania, michigan, where we have to turn out the vote in the last 24 hours. >> are you nervous? >> me? >> i would be a wreck. >> i tell you what. one night about eight days ago,

my wife said to me, what's the matter? this is the first time i have seen you look nervous. i tend to not get nervous. obviously, i see numbers every day, and i stay on a pretty even keel. i have butterflies. i want it over. i want the vote. i want voting right now. i'm ready. >> his voice cracks like a teenager. >> that's fatigue. that's fatigue. >> my voice didn't crack when i was a teenager. >> joel benenson, you're a good sport. thank you very much. coming up, a closer look at more key battleground states. new early voting numbers from florida just in show half of all registered voters have cast a ballot. >> wow. >> and democrats have turned up about 90,000 more voters so far compared to republicans. we'll also check in with chris jansing live in new hampshire and jacob soboroff in philadelphia. as pennsylvania voters could decide the nation's next president. we'll be right back. our mission is to produce programs and online content for african women as they try to

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the political establishment has brought about the destruction of our factories. and our jobs, as they flee to mexico, china, and other countries all around the world. it's a global power structure that is responsible for the economic decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our country of its wealth, and put that money into the pockets of a handful of large corporations and political entities. the only thing that could stop this corrupt machine is you. >> that was part of the two-minute donald trump campaign television ad entitled donald trump's argument for america. the ad will run on several channels in both primetime and throughout the nfl, ncaa, and nascar programming. it will also air in major markets in a variety of battleground states. >> i made the mistake because it's a real populist message

there, of tweeting out this is a really good ad. suddenly, i was compared to adolf hitler. >> this is a tough time to tweet. >> here's the deal. i played the clip for like five different people and said, is that anti-semitic. no. there are dog whistles, but the dog whistles are to people, i guarantee you, play that ad and you'll probably disagree with me on it. but play that ad to 100 americans in middle america, 99 will go, that's cool. i don't like big banks. i don't think people are going -- >> do you mean 100 white people? >> no. >> because i think actually it does really matter. >> what do you mean, 100 white people? >> i mean if you're more sensitive to the dog whistles if you're a person whose ethnic or gender or whose background has put you at some sort of vulnerable place. >> isn't that talking about vulnerable people and how the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer? >> i hear what you're saying. >> by the way, are the dog whistles, and i'm going to let you talk, but are the dog

whistles -- >> breaking. >> -- yeah, exactly. being called anti-semitic and then you might want to enunciate your feelings about this. the dog whistled would go to the white people. if the 100 white people don't hear the dog whistles that's ineffective because the people who were hearing it were liberals who said, oh, this is anti-semitic. a lot of the same liberals who are completely silent when anti-semitism on elite college campuses, oh, yes, they are, rage, or in europe, rage. they're anti-semitic. go ahead. >> i think you don't have to hear a dog whistle in order for it to work in a way. maybe dog whistles like the wrong metaphor here because i think what's happening with the trump phenomenon, the kinds of stuff he's saying, i don't think necessarily his supporters hear that and say i really hate jewish people, i really hate black people. what they hear is something that sort of calls to them a nostalgia for an american that

used to be. >> let's be clear here. was there anything in the ad that suggested that there were dog whistles like we hate black people? >> no, but you don't need them. >> but it was jewish, right? this is about -- >> it's sort of the big bank kind of like the international financiers. that sort of gesturing. and i saw that twitter back and forth you had the other day. and i think the main argument wasn't so much that that ad is anti-semitic. it's that it's hard to make an argument for american nationalism that doesn't eventually or somehow kind of like spill over into -- >> as you saw, i agree with that. >> right. >> in this ad, though, it's hard. rick tyler, for somebody who has been slammed for 20 years for being too pro-israel, and being a zionist for israel and speaking out against anti-semitism at every turn, which i have aggressively, it's all in the transcripts over the last 20 years. it's kind of hard for me to look at that and go, oh, you know

what, my only point is this. republicans need to speak to the disenfranchised. that looked like a bernie sanders ad. as jeff greenfield said, it looked like a bernie sanders or elizabeth warren ad. i pissed off a lot of people at the "wall street journal" as well saying republicans need to start talking like that. but the conservative populism is something that wins states like michigan or pennsylvania. >> yeah, but maybe not for the reason. look, it can't be a reflection of reaction every time. if people know your record, they shouldn't be saying that you're anti-semitic. we should base our opinion based on someone's whole -- the whole record or body of work. >> right. >> i think with conservatives, see, i have always believed the conservative message can win, because if the democrat liberal message is, you know, we'll give you food stamps, how can we not beat that message? >> that's what i'm saying. that's my argument. the republican message has been the aei message. pull yourself up by your own

boot straps. the invisible hand. cut taxes for corporations. that ain't doing anything. it's for people dying in michigan or pennsylvania who have seen their jobs go away and keep falling behind. we have been blind to those people. >> that's right. we don't tell our stories well. the human heart is conditioned to hear stories. and when we don't tell the story, the left and the -- my friends on the left, democrats tell story wonderful. telephone shows. >> we quote aei, talking points, and heritage foundation talking points. and ana, people are like, what? they're saying in scranton, pennsylvania, how are corporate tax cuts for ibm and g.e. going to help me. >> and how is that self-sufficiency. you're asking me to pull myself up by my boot straps. >> you're for free enterprise if we're talking about single moms

but you're for soecialism for bg banks, which was my point, which i don't enonethelessiate it very well. >> i do not think you're an anti-semite. >> i can sleep at night. >> but i also think, you know, i think you're right that the republican party needs to not just tell better stories. they need to have better programs. you can't just say to the single mother, we want you -- we want to do something for you. we aren't telling you just to pull yourself up by your own boot straps. you need to -- >> but the left is we have going to do something to you, the government is going to do something to you. >> name one person, and here's one test. name one republican leader in washington, d.c. that would agree with me and 90% of americans that people making a billion dollars should not be paying 14% tax rate while single moms who let's say are working their tails off and start a small business are paying 28% or 35% taxes. >> that's a good question. >> would you agree with me that

that's -- that is a perverse tax system? >> um, yes and no. look. it would take longer to explain why getting capital into the hands of the private sector to create and innovate that results in the google and the apple and the boeing and the things that make people's jobs as opposed to talking about big companies getting tax breaks, because companies don't actually pay taxes. their kuszmers do. but all those of things take a long time to explain. the central root of the republican party is freedom. the more money that is taken out of the private sector from you and me and everybody else, although the argument is hard to make that capitalism is wonderful, try to make that argument to people who don't have capital. >> right. >> let's go to the campaign trail. nbc news senior white house correspondent chris jansing in durham, new hampshire, and msnbc correspondent jacob soboroff joins us from philadelphia. chris, we'll start with you. what's going on in new hampshire

today. >> reporter: well, what's going on is kind of off the charts here. we haven't seen things like this in this reliably blue state. and the reason why everything is going on here is because everybody thinks this is too close to call. you look at the latest poll. we can show you the new numbers. it says that hillary clinton is up 11 points. maggie hassan is up four points. neither side believes that. how do you know? look at what's happened over just the last two days in this final push. hillary clinton was here with james taylor yesterday. mike pence was here, ivanka trump. today, president obama, one of three stops he's going to make. donald trump is going to be here later on as well. look, this is a state that both sides believe is too close to call. and you can take a look at the people who are out here for president obama today. he's going to be looking for a lot of these college students to come out for hillary clinton. the ground game is, to me, the most interesting thing, joe and mika. the republicans claimed yesterday that they had knocked on 1.4 million doors here.

and the democrats came back and said there aren't even 1.4 million doors in new hampshire, to which they responded, well, we knocked on some of them twice. the democrats say that they have knocked on 600,000 doors. then you have the senate race. the second most expensive in the country. $100 million when you consider outside. and they only -- the secretary of state says the outside is 738 people will vote. per vote, $135. >> chris jansing, thank you so much. jacob, now to you. a big night tonight in philadelphia for the clinton campaign. tell us about it. >> reporter: it will be a huge night here, but it's also a huge morning for the clinton campaign. that's because crisis averted with regard to a giant transit strike that was ongoing here in philadelphia. it would have prevented people from taking public transit, hundreds of thousands of people

to the polls tomorrow. the reason that's important is the same reason it's important that the president, president obama, president clinton, secretary clinton, and the first lady will be here tonight. that's because as joe you have been talking about pennsylvania, is only tuesday voting. the tuesday after the first monday in november is the only opportunity for people to vote here. they're here to rally the vote, particularly the afric african-american vote, and their eyes are on the trump campaign who are saying they're going to have poll watchers out there. as we know, he's been threatening a rigged election in philadelphia. a very, very important day, and important night for the clinton campaign here. >> jacob soboroff, thank you very much. and that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. >> hey there, mika. i'm stephanie ruhle. this morning, so much to cover. one more day. less than 24 hours until the polls open. and one final twist. >> you can't review 650,000 e-mails in eight days. you can't do it, folks. >> the fbi with a bombshell letter number two.

they have searched the e-mails and found nothing new, but the big question is, is it too little too late? and nbc news exclusive, turning to donald, who would be in his cabin cabinet? the names are out and we have got them. big names, including rudy giuliani and newt gingrich. donald's hard core posse. and the closing arguments. this is it, with less than 24 hours until the polls open, the