night long. election night coverage begins. a special edition of mtp daily starts now. >> an election like no other. a country divided like never before. will it be a historic first? >> i stayed focused on one thing. on you! >> or a historic come back. >> america is tired of waiting. the moment is now. >> today, no more speeches or ads. it all comes down to this. one person, one vote. >> with your vote, you can beat the system. the rigged system. >> the best way to stop him is by showing up with the biggest turn out in history! >> today, america decides and history will be made. >> the ultimate if it's tuesday.

not only is someone, everyone is voting everywhere. election night in america. settle in for an epic night. in new york city, kicking off msnbc's special election night coverage. keep it here all night and all next morning. however long it takes. the floodgates are about to open and moments away from the national exit poll and show us who is voting and what issues are most important. we will be everywhere. all of the battle ground states and the senate race states. we are less than two hours away from perhaps the first election night calls from the nbc decision desk. we are following all the action

at clinton and trump election night headquarters. it wouldn't be election night without democracy plaza. beautiful set up we have going on there. the candidates cast their votes. trump in new york and clinton. they are two of the early key states that will tell us maybe a little clue about how the night might go. if it's going to be a long night or short night, probably before 8:00 p.m. here's why. check out the key states we are watching. the 7:00 p.m. poll closings in vermont and virginia, georgia and virginia in particular fascinate me. georgia is probably a battle ground state that should have been there sooner. how soon will we call it? quickly or not? that will tell you something about georgia and north carolina and virginia, it's a lean clinton state.

how quickly is it called for clinton? that will tell us something. at 7:30, look at this. just two of the most important battle ground states. again, the quicker we make calls, the more it tells you about the candidate. how long does it take? north carolina, if we call all three major races in north carolina before midnight, i will be shocked. then it's 8:00 and perhaps the single most important state that we are going to start seeing at 8:00 is florida. most of florida's polls close at 7:00. not a small amount of data, but the early vote gets dropped quickly. that's 60% of all voters likely, maybe more, maybe less depending on turn out. we will quickly know the direction of florida in a hurry

and when polls close, where is that race? it took us days to call it officially four years ago. that's how close it was. will it be like that tonight? the point is this. florida, north carolina and ohio. are any called by 11:00 or all of them not called by 11:00. are they called by 10:00? that will tell us how long this night will be on the presidential front. i can promise you this, by the way. it's going to take at least until tomorrow morning to find out who controls the senate. the election night panel and find out what they are watching as the first polls close. the former adviser on rand paul. who ran for president earlier this year and charlie cook, mr. guru of all things and battle ground states. charlie, i will give you the first word. what are you looking for at 6:00

and 7:00? >> i think you are right. we are looking at the indiana and georgia presidential will be two of the easiest things we will see. early on we will be watching new hampshire. both presidentially and senate. they will be looking for this to be over. >> they will be in a total depression. it's the end of the beginning. what are you watching early? >> florida, florida, florida. i believe i'm going to see the early vote out of florida and we will learn a lot from that. that's the ball game. >> anything they didn't mention? >> michigan. i'm interested in michigan and that's the question a lot of

michigan gop operatives are saying is that there is a chance for trump there. that's something we had not seen and i wonder hoe close it will be up there. >> is there a path for trump without florida? >> i don't see how it happens without florida. i really don't. there are so many ways that if anything goes wrong, he is short. he has to run the table. that's tough. >> without florida, he has to have michigan. and something else probably. because florida is so huge. he has to have michigan and something else. >> and north carolina. no one has any idea. that could go either way. i feel like that's the true closest race. >> absolutely. >> the larger story that i think is going on here is the north-south thing. how we reversed.

trying to find a kickoff. >> if michigan is a nail biter. both say watch, watch, watch. we didn't watch so much. >> i think i know both of those members. let me again with ron motte in ohio. cincinnati, hamilton county. a fairly new democratic stronghold. >> it's changed overtime, isn't that right? this used to be conservative and it changed. barack obama winning ohio and

winning the county the last two cycles and hillary clinton winning that streak. this is what rush hour looks like. it has been a good solid crowd all day. these folks are getting their paperwork and going to the ballots. while they did have a good early voting turn out, record turn outs through sunday afternoon, they don't anticipate they will set a record here. a robust turn out. >> maybe an early warning sign for trump. >> in charlotte, north carolina. this mecklinburg county is ground zero for every major race in the state. governor, senate and of course the president. >> absolutely. i have to check you because i know so much is going on. i am in raleigh, north carolina where people are paying a lot of attention. >> lake county matters too. yes. >> for does matter.

there were long lines of people here early morning to vote. since then it has been not crowded, but steady. authorities tell me one of the reasons they think that is is because of the record all time early voting that occurred here. 45% of registered voters voted before today and authorities say there has been an upsurge in unaffiliated voters. there were concerns about glitches with people checking in in durham and state authorities say they are checking that out. chuck? >> thanks very much. we are learning something skmhe and they are running almost hazard-free. speak of early vote, go to florida, florida, florida. we name it three times. at the polls in all important, miami-dade. the hispanic surge is what we are watching in miami-dade. what are you seeing?

>> chuck, the misconception here is that florida is the sunshine retirement state. there are more millennials than retirees and they are black and latino and they are connected. the demographics have definitely shifted. 24% of hispanics who voted early were voting for the first time. in florida, two million registered hispanic voters, 16% of the electorate this year. the latino and millennial votes are deciding factors here. as a miami expert, you know wherever florida goes, so goes the election. >> that's for sure for good and bad. our lovely state of florida. thanks very much. both sides are on edge about voting problems, but i think it is so far so good. pete williams is manning the vote watch desk and perhaps because of the early voting, but

it seems that glitches are out there, but explainable. >> the one problem where there has been complaints is pennsylvania. a lot of republican voters and scattered number of counties. perhaps as many as five or six say which when they went to vote the republican ticket, the machine gave democratic results. we had no response and one county the election officials said they tried to get the machines to do that and couldn't. it's hard to tell how many actually happened. you had the lawsuit by donald trump's lawyers. they were upset about early voting last friday in four polling locations, predominantly democratic in las vegas. basically people who showed up after the scheduled polling time to close and got in line were still allowed to vote and say the election officials in those polling places decided early in the day to extend the time two more hours. the lawyers said they couldn't do that and asked the judge to

set the machines and ballots aside and the judge said that's what we do anyway. we always set them aside. they said what they really wanted was the names of the polling clerks so they can depose them if there is a later challenge and the judge didn't want to do that for fear they would be harassed. >> pete williams. understandable there. thanks very much. we are two hours from the first poll closing and about to get our first look at the exit poll. at least the national one. an idea of how the country as a whole looked. the dwight between college educated and non-college educated voters. that from the campaign managers from trump and clinton. stay tuned.

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together, we're building a better california. >> welcome become to new york city. the first polls will close along the east coast. parts of florida and senate race

we will get a look at and all of that in the 6:00 and 7:00 hour. we are getting a look at the national senate poll. they have been speed reading to bring us the first bits of information that we want to share. >> more numbers coming in. they are early tentative and the national popular vote. that gives us a sense of the big picture. nationally we have been talking about. the white voters with college degrees. a lot of discussion about this group that historically democrats have never won. a look at the national exit poll shows trump ahead by a point. to approximate tut in perspective, the margin for mitt romney was 14 points. 14 right now in this early wave here down to one. the flip side of that, however,

white voters without college degrees. you see trump up 36 in this initial read out. four years ago, the margin was 26. you can see it's gone more in the republicans's favors with blue collar white voters. it has gone more towards the democrats with white voters with the college degree. something we were expecting and what is driving that and you can break it down. white women with college degree. you can see four years ago, they voted for mitt romney. hillary clinton with an eight-point advantage with the same group. what is driveing it on the non-college side, it's men. we have the gender splits. among men of non-college men, a 47-point advantage for trump and romney that was just 31 points. >> keep coming back and i want more. millennials versus seniors. >> we are on it.

>> all right, brother. now we get the clinton campaign manager robbie mook where clinton will speak tonight. robbie, i hope you heard what we just went through there very quickly with college educated white voters and non-college i educated white voters. how are you feeling? >> we are feeling really, really good, chuck. some of what you saw there reflects what we call the hillary coalition. young people, latinos, asian-americans and suburban women. they are turning out at very high numbers. we saw that broward county in florida is an important county. already surpassed the 2012 turn out in the 4:00 hour. durham, new hampshire where people are voting is well over 80% of the 2012 turn out already. we are very encouraged and reminding everyone to get out and vote. you have a few hours left. >> i want to ask you about what

we are seeing. the good news for you is the southeast corner of the united states. the tougher it looks like if you have stuff to worry about, it's the great lakes region. obviously some of this is migration over the last 15 or 16 years and we can explain it with demo graphy. do you have regrets that you didn't get into michigan in a bigger way? >> they can be that they didn't compete harder. also competing harder in a state like michigan. i am proud that we were organizing in michigan and back in the primary and we never let up. we had a big team on the ground and registered over 100,000 new voters there. we have been working aggressively for months. we were not necessarily talking about it in the press, but we had a concerted effort and seeing in michigan a good turn out in the core communities.

>> a fair hit on trump in michigan and let me ask you about one you flirted with and seemed to back off. now i wonder if you have regrets. that's georgia. >> we have been organizing in georgia as well since the beginning like we were in arizona. i think georgia is still an uphill for this campaign. we are also seeing strong turn out there. what i'm particularly encouraged by are the backbone battle ground states like florida, pennsylvania, virginia. those are all looking really, really strong in terms of turn out in the communities where we need them. that's where we are focused. >> you left out a state and that's ohio. if hillary clinton is elected without ohio. what does it mean for ohio? does it mean it is no longer a linchpin. if you can win without ohio and

iowa. >> my parents win in ohio. >> we will blame the mooks. >> they turned out to vote. i made sure they did. ohio will continue to be a battle ground state. one of the luxuries our campaign has right now is that so many states are in play that we have many, many paths to victory. donald trump has to win ohio and pennsylvania and florida. we have a variety of different places to go. ohio is one of the tougher states for us. it will remain a battle ground for a long time to come. >> let's talk about north carolina. a week ago you guys felt great about it and over the last few days, i can't find a democrat or republican who feels as good as you felt about your chances and it seems as though everyone thinks there is a nice edge, but it will tip to the republicans. do you still think that? >> north carolina is a toss up. anybody who has not turned out to vote.

their vote could literally be the deciding vote. >> you think it's that close? >> i do. you see the hillary coalition at work. strong turn out once we got the extra early voting cites and young people in the universities. we had an incredible event last night with thousands of people. at midnight in north carolina. we know our folks are turning out and it's a numbers game. i don't know that north carolina will be called tonight. it might be that close. >> that has been my guess. we might call it sometime thursday. robbie mook. quite the ride for you being a campaign manager. win or lose, congratulations. >> it has been a great experience. thank you for all your coverage. >> kellyanne conway's county part is voting. she is on the way back from voting. she will be here. i promise. the minute she gets here, we will get her on.

okay, you guys poured through the data and heard from him. something caught my eye, the background of the battle ground states. florida, virginia, pennsylvania. did not mention ohio and iowa. it made me think they can win without those two. >> that's what it sounded like to me. that is the plan. he sounded confident that they are doing well. he wants people in north carolina to vote. the last minute plea. >> he definitely threw shade at the campaign for the last minute michigan efforts and said we had a ground game. in truth that is what the difference is going to come down to tonight. they have been out there doing the work all year long. the trump campaign skirted by on the fly and it's not going to pull the election. >> the trump campaign that it got this far with as little

infrastructure as it has. >> i think there was a bigger reason. i think the crisis kept people away. >> yeah. the danger being criticized for taking unfair advantage was real. i think it was kind of a hot stove that neither side wanted to touch. >> let's talk about if she does win this presidency, charlie, it's going to be this interesting. it just reminds me of reagan's map. reagan went out west and south

and ended up winning in a landslide. they were where the population was. all of the growth states were republican states. most of them may be trending blue and it's the states with the population in red. we were in the other way. >> that's right. my colleague talks about this inversion where you have seen blue collar whites that were the backbone of the fdr new coalition were trending republican very, very quickly. what that means and democrats don't really seem to have a strategy to go after those to try to pull them back into the democratic party. >> i suspect when we get more detailed numbers, we will see this urban small town and rural split. where you see urban areas. >> places like texas and alabama

and georgia which could be interesting because of the size and weight of atlanta. you see them going brighter and brighter blue and you see surrounding rural and small town areas going redder. >> i think your former boss rand paul early on when he was telling people why he thought it could be a successful general election candidate, he talked about younger voters and he was trying to reach out to african-americans and did it in a serious way rather than doing it this haphazard way. there are plenty of republicans who are aware they have to create a coalition. >> there is no future for the republican party if we are going to keep going after the disappearing white male vote. this election is really going to show that the republican party has to listen to the 2012 autopsy. we can't shut ourselves out from the community for millennials and women.

we have to expand if we are going to grow. if not, we are going to be a party that can't win the white house. >> for trump loses, they can say we tried it that way. >> that might be the good news. you made the attempt. it's worth whatever the number is. >> you are looking at two parties and they both have serious problems. it's a delusional thing to focus on. >> that is going to be an interesting reaction. the stage is set. we will show you a little bit here in new york city from the hillary clinton pausch party. they pulled out all the stops. a few blocks away, the redone hilton, the trump supporters are waiting on the results themselves. the latest from both headquarters after this.

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we are back here at election headquarters. we have a quick look at more of the early exit numbers according to the exit poll. 44% of voters have a favorable view of hillary clinton. in this same poll, 37% have a favorable view of donald trump.

that basically matches what our nbc "wall street journal" poll showed. trump lightly more unpopular than clinton. we are guaranteed to be electing a president that the majority of voters find unfavorable. that millennial senior issue and the reason i care is it's not just how they vote, but who has the larger percentage of it. mid-term it's only seniors. then millennials. what will it be this time? the first time both major nominees are in the heartland of america, new york city. i'm kidding. right here in new york city. i never thought in my life that both would headquarter themselves in new york city and find that appealing to the rest

of america. but hey, these times are a changing. on the westside of manhattan where hillary clinton's campaign is watching the results. less than two miles away is katie at the new york hilton in mid-town manhattan. how are they feeling? me about it? >> i have been talking to a number of the clinton officials here. they are striking a note of measured confidence. one top official saying we feel good tonight. secretary clinton finished strong. she finished this race in the exact way she wanted to. what that person means is that secretary clinton wanted to fon a positive note as you and i have been discusses. she was pushed into negative territory in the wake of the fbi bombshell. she has really stayed on a

positive footing, talking about the ways in which she plans to unify this country if she is in fact elected. this official pointing to the unity rally and it was unprecedented because you had the obamas and the clintons urging people to get out the vote. in terms of the states they are watching, it's florida, florida, florida. no different tonight. they are encouraged by the early turn out they are seeing, but what makes tonight unique is they are watching the state like michigan. reliably blue where donald trump has been making a strong play. they are going to be watching that closely. secretary clinton did a number of radio interviews and she might act if she feels it is necessary. they are feeling jittery and i am told she is working on two speeches. one for either scenario and

spending time with family before she comes here tonight. >> i can shout from the windows. how are the trump folks feeling? >> coy conceit that if this is an early night, florida, north carolina and iowa. the traditional swing states and from there on, they want to try to turn a blue state red. they said michigan is a place where they will get a foothold.

he said he will win on the campaign party. they are talking about what could be a rigged system. he is talking about the voter irregularities in utah and talking about voter irregularities in nevada and filed a lawsuit for that. that could be a glimpse of how the night will go. >> a little breaking news here from our friends at the "new york times". george w. bush and laura bush did not vote for anybody for president. they left the presidential line empty, but did cast votes for

down ballot republican candidat candidates. as voters got out the vote, my man will be back with the latest exit poll data that we can share. we'll be right back. if you're approaching 65... now's the time to get your ducks in a row. [quack!] medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so think about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.

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and we appreciate the platform on your network. thank you, chuck. >> kellyanne conway, we'll be watching. okay, guys, steve, joy, and

hugh are here. steve, what'd you hear in her voice? >> fatigue. >> no, it's exhausting, as you come to the, you know, to the end of these -- i've been in the inner circle of two of them. we won one, we lost one, but . >> global financial crisis party with 25% approval rating being outspent by $300 million. the writing on the wall was not good. this moment in the bush campaign, in --

>> the exits had president kerry there at this point. >> we were looking at exits that had president kerry. we had polling, you know, that we were three points up in the national averages, so we were, you know, feeling better than we thought that they should be feeling on, you know, on election day. but these were long, long hours. >> hey, i want to -- actually, i want to move to the -- i thought, interesting news that kellyanne quietly made there, which is she wasn't conceding anything, but the blame game began. >> that's what i was actually just about to say. is what i heard in her voice was a sense of recrimination, against the republicans who didn't stand with her. she talked about the news came out that george w. bush and laura bush did not vote for trump. they voted the rest of the ballot. this sense that the republican party abandoned the campaign. but you have to remember, this was a campaign that ran against the republican party. and sort of, you know, one of the things, you know, i was talking with a democratic strategist yesterday who pointed out to me in the hallway at 30 rock, did donald trump mention any down-ballot candidates

during his speeches? we could remember if he mentioned rob portman or if -- >> he would. occasionally, not in the last weekend. >> right. when he was out there doing his final closing arguments, look, barack obama was out there all the way down the ticket. you know, for every candidate. >> city councillor, john -- >> right, right, right. so there is this sense of the schism in the party that i definitely heard in her voice. >> hugh, tomorrow, that's what that sounded like. we know what tomorrow could look like -- >> well, i'm glad you took a moment to be very complimentary of kellyanne. she's out of one of the few people in this carnage of a year that comes out being admired from both sides for doing what she did well. i also her heard mention the core four. toomey in pennsylvania, rubio in florida, portman in ohio and what was her fourth -- >> well, the iowa one is really a branstad operation, more than it is grassley. >> and you have republicans to thank. if i'm kellyanne -- >> she could have been thanking those four. >> don't get mad at people that weren't with you. >> it is interesting, when you look at some of these

battleground states, the ones they're struggling with is the ones without those operations. >> they're at war with the governor of ohio and with the ohio republican party. if you're in a race that's going to be that close, you need the apparitions of the governor and at least the party. they're even fighting with the state party in ohio. that doesn't make any sense. >> look, he loses, the stab in the back theory will be deeply rooted in the consciousness of millions of republicans. and unfortunately, the party has become one of victims and grievances, which is not appetizing to a lot of people in the middle. but, you know, general sherman, who was very critical of lincoln, when he was first elected and skeptical, when lincoln was assassinated, sherman was asked to reflect on him, and he said, i've met all the great men of the world, the generals, the emperors, but i've never met any man who possessed more of the qualities of greatness and goodness than abraham lincoln. and those aspirational qualities, in a commander in

chief, were sorely missing from donald trump in this campaign. and there's no small number of people, i think, that put their country over their party and said, no way to the question of giving donald trump the nuclear codes, as he demonstrated a temperament that a lot of people left feeling, he's unfit. >> hugh, when you look at the party elites, i would argue about half said, fine, i'll be with them. and about half said, i couldn't do it. what will happen to the half that are with them, if this ends up not going the way -- >> if he doesn't win. he could win, by the way. i'm hearing some interesting little clues. it's probably unlikely, but if he doesn't win, i think paul ryan is the automatic and immediate leader of the party in a way that very few legislators have ever been. and he was out there working hard for trump this week. ron johnson was on my show this morning, working hard for trump. >> what's his favorable rating with trump voters? >> i was just going to say -- >> but elites going forward -- >> the elites, i hear you. >> who does stephen bannon

despise more than anyone else? it's not hillary clinton. it's paul ryan. >> you like the movie "saving private ryan," the opening scene, they're getting killed -- >> "saving paul ryan" is what it's going to be called? >> where tom hanks says, "anywhere but here," that's the truth for the republican party. >> it is. all right, guys, it's only just beginning. you're right, we have a lot of state stuff to start poring through pretty soon. we'll see the first state results in five minutes out of indiana. and you have a senate race, a hot house race, a governor's race. and it is a state that barack obama carried in '08, so who knows. anyway, i will have my final thoughts, though, right after this. gary, gary, gary... i am proud of you, my man. making simple, smart cash back choices... with quicksilver from capital one. you're earning unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. like on that new laptop. quicksilver keeps things simple, gary. and smart, like you!

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all right. we are minutes away. we're going to start seeing returns in indiana. and at 7:00, we're going to get virginia, georgia are the two -- there's a few other states, but these three states, and then we're going to start seeing returns at 7:00. polls don't close until 8:00. at least over here. the point is, this is -- you can -- we're going to find out quickly how long of a night this is going to be. where is florida? is it neck and neck the whole time? or is the latino surge real and she builds a lead? what about georgia. is this basically what michigan may turn into for trump, is georgia going to turn into that for clinton? is georgia going to be the north carolina of 2020? we'll find out tonight. and then, of course, virginia and indiana. the question here is these are

lean reds and lean blue states. how fast do we call them? how quickly do we get there? that will tell you the length of this night. you need to keep it right here on msnbc all night, because there's always races to cover, even through the morning. it's an historic election. williams, maddow and mathews pick up our coverage right now. our country doesn't win anymore. we're going to start winning again. >> if you work in america, you ought to be able to get ahead in america. >> i'm not a politician. my only special interest is you. >> i will never, ever quit on you. >> we will make america great again. >> america's best days are stale ahe ahead of us. >> today is our independence day. >> let's make history together! >> get out and vote! >> let's get out and