lean reds and lean blue states. how fast do we call them? how quickly do we get there? that will tell you the length of this night. you need to keep it right here on msnbc all night, because there's always races to cover, even through the morning. it's an historic election. williams, maddow and mathews pick up our coverage right now. our country doesn't win anymore. we're going to start winning again. >> if you work in america, you ought to be able to get ahead in america. >> i'm not a politician. my only special interest is you. >> i will never, ever quit on you. >> we will make america great again. >> america's best days are stale ahe ahead of us. >> today is our independence day. >> let's make history together! >> get out and vote! >> let's get out and vote!

. it has arrived. election night 2016. and good evening to you from democracy plaza here at rockefeller center. home ice advantage, our election headquarters, for this history-making night, as voters choose. the 45th president of the united states. a choice which has divided so much of this country behind just lines of blue and red, but further divisions of race and gender and education, in ways we've never seen before, in ways we will talk about here this evening. in less than an hour now, the first poll closings of this night. just minutes from now, we'll start to get the first actual results from indiana and kentucky. already today, we have seen both candidates cast their ballots. hillary clinton in chappaqua, new york, this morning, alongside her husband, the

former president. donald trump with his wife and his daughter, ivanka, voting in manhattan. good evening, all. brian williams, rachel maddow, chris matthews, our entire family, our entire election night team. and as they say, either way, history is going to be made tonight. >> i hope it's tonight. history is going to be made -- >> well, how are you defining "tonight." >> history's going to be made, during this election. listen, barack obama will become e-du president as of tomorrow. we think, tomorrow. and i think eight years ago, when he was first elected, all of the smart money in the world would have said that the next democratic nominee for president after barack obama, whether it was in four years or eight years, would be hillary clinton. and in fact, she got the nomination. she was favored to get the nomination from the beginning and she did. nobody could say anything like that, though, for the republican side. and what we ended up with is potentially the first woman president of the united states, running against somebody who is

as much of an historic anomaly as that, for totally different reasons. somebody with no record of public service, somebody who is the first-ever tv celebrity to run for president. and what that means is that we haven't had a normal red/blue election. and we don't really know what the map is going to look like tonight. and they have shaken up a lot of the ways that we thought we were divided between democrats and republicans. we'll see how this goes tonight, but these two characters, these two candidates are so larger than life, they're so unique, they're so unlike anything that has ever happened before in politics, that we are in totally new ground. and i think anybody who's confidently predicting the next things that are about to happen will probably be made a fool of tonight. >> a terrific caution. and millions of people are still voting. people are voting in droves. more on that in a bit. we are all here, by definition, because we're romantics about this process. that romance has been trampled. it's been disheveled over the past few months. no one is more of a romantic about this process, about

democracy, and this day every four years than our friend, chris matthews. and chris, what's on your mind tonight? >> well, brian, you got that right. and i think there's going to be huge -- i will make one prediction, rach, that will be huge news tonight. we'll either have the first woman president in history -- which is interesting, if you're a woman, like my daughter, who doesn't like me admitting that, but the fact is, the fact is, this is history. the pope the other day said we won't have women priests as far as we can -- imagine, well, for young girls, that means sympathet something if you're a roman catholic. but if you're an american, this means now you can be president. and i think that's going to be an existential change in what it means to be a woman in america. i know i'm a guy saying that. but most voters in america are women. and if you have donald trump win, the smoes explosive anti-establishment vote in modern history we'll ever see. the stock market yesterday always tells us what's going on.

even bernie sanders and the people on the left know that. yesterday the stock market had a tremendous rebound, because the director of the fbi is not going to further investigate hillary clinton, which is good news on world markets. and i think -- we saw a total increase of 400 points in the dow in the last two days. i think tomorrow we're going to see something more like that. so news either way. clinton, huge international news, bad news for the world economy. hillary wins tonight, big news for women and for the -- well, the greatness of this country, i think. >> chris, on that stock market point, in the interim nine days, between when comey sent his first letter and clearing his letter, the stock market was down every single one of those nine days. it was the alolongest sustained period of the market being down in years. >> veteran viewers know there are such things called exit polls. and all the networks go in as a consortium and we also independently crunch all the incoming data. but a point must be made at the top of this evening. no matter what you're seeing on

a computer or your device, there is no insider fact or answer tonight. we're going into this as election night coverage. what we can talk about is who was voting, voter attitudes, and the like. steve kornacki is going to be one of the busiest men in new york city tonight. he's at the big board with a look at what we do know, so far. >> yeah, well, i can talk about here, four key groups, four key groups in this electorate, who we have been talking about for months, for really, more than a year now in this campaign. how they have responded very differently to this campaign, and what the exit polls are telling us. let me take you through and start with white voters, with college degrees. we have talked so much about this group, generally here, you have had to say this is sort of suburbanites, white suburbanites you're talking about here. the significance, this is a group that has never, never voted democratic in a presidential race. there was a lot of talk and there were a lot of polls running up to this election tonight, that said that hillary clinton would. well, our first look at the exit poll you see here, trump

clinging to a one-point lead, with white voters with a degree. to put this in some perspective. four years ago tonight, we were looking at a margin of 14 points for the republican. that margin, 14 four years ago, down to 1 tonight. so we expected movement in this direction. we, a lot of people expected this is a group clinton might win. we're seeing her get about as close as you can to winning it. but so far trump clinging to a one-point advantage there. let me show you the flip side of this, now. these are white voters without a college degree, talking about blue collar white voters, something the trump's been keying in. you see a margin of 36 points for donald trump. put this in perspective, four years ago, the margin for mitt romney, he also won this group, it was 26 points. so you're seeing the opposite reaction here. white voters with a college degree have moved by double digits towards the democrats. white voters without a college degree, who were already core to the republican coalition, have moved by double digits further toward trump, toward the republicans, a 36-point margin there. and you can break this down and

see a gender gap that explains this. among white women, with a college degree, you see hillary clinton winning tonight. by eight points. four years ago, this same group of voters went for romney, by six. so you see a swing there. other side of it, white men, no college degree, blue collar white men, look at this, a 47-point margin here for donald trump. four years ago, this same group for the republicans, 31 points. so from 31 four years ago to 47 tonight. that is a story with those two groups, two other groups we're looking at quickly here, black voters, again, four years ago, what did you see? barack obama, first black president, running for re-election, he won this group 93-6. he won it 95-4 in 2008. tonight, 97-8. that's more in line with the last democratics president who wasn't barack obama. in 2004, jk won black voters 88-11. slight, slight slippage there

for hillary clinton with black voters. and how about this. we have talked all campaign about latino voters. a lot of suspense about what this number was going to be. what we are seeing, clinton, 65, trump, 27. this may surprise some people. four years ago, the margin for barack obama with latino voters was 71-27. a 44-point margin. we're seeing 55-27 here. remember, there are some third party candidates in the race. remember, republicans four years ago, republican national committee, at least, looked at this number and they said, that can never happen again. there was a lot of talk trump would do worse than the 27, so a bit of a surprise, he's at 27. i will caution you, though. if there's one number i'm showing you right now that's subject to change as the night progresses, it may be this one. why is that? it's because there's a large latino population centered on the west coast. the west coast data can take a little longer to come in. that could affect the results a little bit. but again, right now, we're seeing 65-27, clinton, with latino voters. >> all right. steve kornacki at the board. and that's a great caution. exit data comes in in waves.

it gets better as the night goes on. and of course, we get to fill in with actual results. so all of this, we'll have a better idea, especially concerning these certain populations, as the evening goes on. we should introduce the rest of our family here at the table. that would include nicole wallace, former communications director in the bush 43 white house and a veteran of the mccain campaign, among other things. and a pulitzer prize winner, eugene robinson rejoins us tonight. welcome to you both. nicole, i was thinking about your former bosses, the bush family, and all of your friends throughout establishment republican land tonight. >> yes, we've been at a 15-month wake for the party formerly known as the republican party. you know, george w. bush making a little bit of news tonight. there was a false story saying that he had voted for hillary clinton. i'm assured that that is not the case. but, you know, these numbers -- >> but he didn't vote for trump either. >> he didn't vote for donald trump, either. >> he voted for nobody for

president. >> he has made his ideology, this idea of neutrality, he stayed out of president obama's way for eight years in a matter that democrats and republicans have been proud of. and he wanted to stay out of the way of this presidential campaign. he went out and campaigned for senate republicans. i'm going to watch all those races tonight. but he campaigned on his values, which were against isolationism, against nativism, and against protectionism. so i think his views are public. they're well known. and they're laid bare in his legacy. but he didn't put his finger on the scale in this presidential contest. i'm told they voted down-ballot. but you look at the early exit data, and it's clear why the trump campaign still has some optimism. republicans are the ones who have railed against and called cynical campaigns rooted in class warfare. what we see, raging in our country, is a class war. >> what's interesting, to see two numbers moving at once among white voters, that you've got hillary clinton doing

significantly worse than barack obama did with non-educated college-educated whites, but significantly better than college-educated whites. a democrat has never, ever won college-educated whites. to see her within one number, it's remarkable. it's a question of raw numbers and who turns out. >> and donald trump clearly appealed to voters who felt left out by the mega-trends that are happening in our society. you know, technological advancement, globalization, those white blue collar workers who look back to a time where they feel that they had it a lot better and they don't have it that way anymore. and that's really the core of trump's support. also, when you look in the data, it seems to me that the trump campaign was counting on not so much segments of the minority vote, but they were counting on the minority vote to go down in numbers, overall, to be smaller percentages of the overall vote.

and i don't see that in this data. i see the percentage, in terms of african-americans and hispanics as percentages of the overall vote. i see that as holding steady from 2012. and potentially, as we get more numbers in from the west, i have a feeling that the hispanic segment will increase. >> and can i say something? he started calling this group of voters the forgotten man and the forgotten woman. and it was a closing argument. and the conversations i had tonight, with trump advisers, were almost -- they've almost leaped forward to, if he comes up short, what if he sort of landed on what was a pretty strong closing message sooner? what if he'd gotten himself through the "access hollywood" tape more smoothly? what if he'd simply apologized to the khan family, shortly after, instead of waging a month-long war against a gold star -- and listen, we don't know the results, but they are already talking about this closing message that talks about what they've started saying the forgotten man and woman. what if they'd landed on that -- >> the fact that they're talking

with you about what if, though, gives you a sense of how they think this is going to go. >> what often happens in a campaign, one side wins and the other side's argument wins. it happened in the cold war, where kennedy lost the argument to nixon, where he became a hawk. and in this case, the working white guy -- chuck schumer said the other day, i'll take a trade. give me the two college-educated women for one non-college educated women. but it becomes more of an elitist party. >> i'm glad you mentioned politics on the ground. let's go to chris matthews' hometown. jacob soboroff has been driving around philly. you've been up northwest today, where there's philly and there's philly. so where are you? >> reporter: this is the northern liberties neighborhood, brian, of philadelphia. last night we heard hillary clinton, barack obama, president of the united states of america come here and implore everyone possible to get out and vote on the only day possible to vote in pennsylvania, the tuesday after the first monday in november. take a look at this. there are four voting machines

in here. this is a line that stretches all the way down this block. but this is not the only line in this area. come with me. it also stretches all the way down this block as well. what i'm told, how long are you been waiting here? >> about an hour and 15. >> reporter: an hour and 15 minutes on this line. let's go all the way down. i ran into senator bob casey just earlier tonight here, and he said, which backs up what i've heard from people inside this location, it is record turnout. i've been speaking from people across town, a poll worker told me they're seeing similar turnout numbers, all the way on the other side of town as well. how long have you guys been here? >> too long. >> reporter: too long. but for democracy, there is no too long. and despite rumors, innuendo about a rigged election, we're even hearing the republican party tonight say that there were cases of voter fraud in this town. everything is going smoothly as far as we can see. and we'll continue to monitor it all night long from here in philadelphia. brian, rachel, back to you. >> jacob, thank you very much. chris, you know that street corner. >> yeah, it used to be fish

town. used to be poor whites and now it's the overload from brooklyn. this is where the millennials go to get -- i guess it's meds and eds. where are they getting jobs in philly? it's education and the medical industry. the big hospital industry in philly. but those young millennial people, somewhat diverse, but young millennials. >> fishtown was the kiss of death. if you said to someone you were from fishdown -- >> it was white angry people. >> they would make fun of you like being from the pine barrens of new jersey. >> and for hispanic voters, latino voters, they now have a name for their pain, donald trump. and back when you were covering philadelphia and before that, frank rizzo was the name for an african-american. we hate frank rizzo, because he hats us. and we're going to -- you know, the guy with the nightstick and his cummerbund. they out-registered the whites. so what we're seeing is a phenomenon where the minority groups that feels it's under attack gets robust, shows up, and votes and sticks it to the guy bluntly who went after them. so if you want to rouse up a minority group, attack them. that is one way to do it.

>> and that is the single best reason, no matter what happens in the states that we get in at the top of this hour, the single best reason to watch these results until the end tonight. because when we see the latino numbers come in from the west coast, that's going to tell you what's going to happen in american politics tonight. >> and guess whose name i.d. recognition is 100%? donald trump's. >> we're going to fit in a break. three minutes until we get first real vote. it's complicated, but it's coming in, nonetheless. and pretty soon we're going to know a lot of it. >> i'm very excited.

. we're back and we'll take it. here's some real numbers. they are not predictive, nor do

they really mean anything, except we have that number of votes in. kentucky is a split poll state, so we get partial kentucky returns and we wait until the next hour, when everyone's closed up before, obviously, making any kinds of projections. this only shows that among the first folks to vote, it's coming out 73-25, trump over hillary clinton. but, you know, it's numbers. >> yeah, that upper right-hand corner is the most important number on that screen. 1%. we'll get some partial results and partial closings out in indiana. >> we're waiting for indiana. >> before we get that full rash of closings, including some big, high-profile states that will be closing at the stop of this hour, at 7:00 eastern. one of the states we're looking ahead to tonight with a lot of interest, one, because it's not always seen as a toss-up state, it's not always seen as a swing state. two, because both candidates lavished attention on it in the very closing days of the

campaign, including donald trump doing his last rally there after midnight. and three, because, there's almost no early vote there, so we really know it's going to happen. that key state, unexpectedly, is michigan, tonight. we've asked steve kornacki to give us a little bit of a preview in terms of the state of michigan, including why it is so hard-fought there, this year. steve? >> rachel, we're seeing the explanation in those numbers i showed you a minute ago from the exit poll. let's take a look at 2012, what happened in michigan. look, this wasn't a battleground state. this was almost a ten-point win for barack obama. why is trump there? why was the clinton campaign getting nervous? what are we going to look for tonight? has everything to do with those deep divisions, especially among white voters. those new divisions i just told you about. take a look here. there's two counties in particular, i want you to focus on. they are both right outside the detroit. one is right here. this is mccomb county. mccomb county is famous in american politics because of the term reagan democrats. it started in this county, conservative voters, socially conservative blue collar white voters who went for reagan in the '80s. they came back for the

democrats, voted for obama four years ago, but these are white voters without a college degree. we talk about them in the polls. this is sort of the heart of them in michigan. this was an obama county four years ago. there are indications trump could win, at least in the polling leading up to tonight, that trump could win this county and win it big. and you're seeing in that national exit poll why. if he's making that kind of a gain with blue collar white voters. go right next door, though. another giant suburban county. look, this was an eight-point win for obama four years ago, oakland county. now this is sort of the opposite of macomb as suburban counties go. this is an economically upscale suburban county. those white voters with a college degree. we just showed you nationally, they are moving away from the republicans, to the democrats. so this is where the democrats are hoping to stave off trump in michigan. anything they lose in macomb, they want to make up in oakland. so that tail of contrast between white voters with a degree, white voters without a degree, there's nowhere better in america to see that than these two giant counties, right next door to each other in michigan.

it's the reason trump started going to michigan, and it's the reason clinton is hoping to hold him off there. >> the oven mitt of michigan. keep that graphic handy. we're going to need it all night long, something tells me. lawrence o'donnell is in a studio just next to ours, where we have housed our political insiders. lawrence? >> we've got a couple guys who know something, brian. steve schmidt and james carville. you've been with the candidate at this time, election night. what is it like, james, and does the campaign have access to any better information than the networks do on exit polling? >> you know, they have -- the campaign has analytics and they're very, very talented and they're very good and they're constantly getting updated. they told me at 2:00 today, the south florida vote was 98% of what it was in 2012. but a lot of this information is difficult to process. i suspect around the candidate, it's awfully quiet right now. people are -- just careful as to what you say. you don't want to bring anybody any bad news.

someone will walk in, hand somebody something, hand a note. at least my experience on election night, it's very nerve rack right now, and we're just filling up air time. >> painfully nerve-racking. everybody is exhausted. and people who do this for a living are unusually superstitious. so nobody wants to be the first to deliver good news, nobody wants to be the first to utter bad news. and so it's very quiet, it's very, very tense right now. maybe some joking around, a little bit, on the side, trying to lighten the moment. but these are tense hours. >> james, what are you going to be looking for tonight? >> well, i think it's rough. a third of the country is non-white. a third of the country are high school non-college whites, and a third of the country are college whites. i think the non-whites and the college whites are going toe to toe. this is a election that is going to be decided, i think the key demographic here are college whites. i think they're going to be the arbitrators in this fight between the non-whites and the non-college whites. that's what i think.

>> steve, what are you looking f forring? >> i'm looking to see florida returns and north carolina, and how quickly a potential math shuts down for trump to get to 270. and ultimately looking at the hispanic turnout in this election, which i think a tidal wave is about to land on the republican party that's been coming for some time. >> brian, back to you. >> lawrence and our insiders, interesting conversation. everyone has their own theory as to what's going to make the dump difference. >> and everybody divides up the country in terms of thinking who's the relevant jurisdiction or the relevant demographic we have to be watching. it does feel a little bit weird. it feels like we're choosing clothes or tiles to say, the non-cleh non-college white there. it's weird to talk about the country in this way, that you can predict everybody on these gross -- >> labels you would no sooner toss on people as you would walk down the street. >> and we don't apply to people in our own lives, at all. >> of course, my friend, a

non-college white. >> in my past, i worked in politics. and i must say that there's something about the whole ritual, like, concession speeches, which i love. i've said that before. and crying when you lose. these are very important rituals. going to dinner at this time, what you do is -- tip used to do this, my first guy i worked with in '72. owens did this. jack kennedy did this, ben bradley and his buddy, they went up to see a porn movie during the west virginia -- they didn't want to be anywhere near news. >> they went to a porn theater? >> they tried to go to a nice one, that was closed -- >> your nicer ones. >> the nice one. >> so you try to desperately do what we're doing in a different way, hide from the news. you don't want anybody coming in with -- well, with 1% in, that just drives you crazed. tip comes off and said, we lose the house, what happened, what happened? and they all hide. and right now, they're eating somewhere, in a japanese restaurant, you go away -- because they don't want to be here while we're doing that. >> nicole, was that your experience, too? >> in '04, the first wave exit data, i'm sure we're beyond that

now, but before the days when air force one was totally wired with wi-fi, so we landed in '04 back in washington and -- >> you're with president bush. >> and the first wave data had him losing and john kerry believed he'd be the next president and george w. bush believed he'd lost and he walked up and down air force one thanking everybody for leaving it all on the field. and i cried when he thanked me and i was so distraught. they thought it was so funny that i cried. they came back two more times. i cried three times. but we really thought we had lost. they said, what are you going to do? we were in the saddest van ride back to the white house. and karen hughes was in the van and everybody was very quiet. and of course -- >> the next wave comes in. >> it was really late. and we had a whole press corps out at campaign headquarters and there was a white house press corps at the white house. but john kerry didn't concede until the next day. the data can be really wrong. i know hope springs eternal that we'll know tonight, but you really do have to wait for waves and waves to come through.

in part because of what you're talking about. these demographic groups are not always, you know, they don't always vote as a monolith. you have to see as the states come in. >> and this year, one of the things that is happening in the media about this election is that a lot of that data, that realtime data, that usually only the campaigns see or that peep in the news business see, a lot of that is being made public all day long. that stuff is notoriously wrong. do not hang your hat on that, no matter how many times you hit refresh on your browser. >> or it's right for a minute. >> bob shrum was telling the senator, he was saying, mr. president -- >> they were dividing up the cabinet seats. >> all i know is when i dvr a giants' game and they lose, it's terrible. >> we'll take another break and when we come back, we will be joined by the trump campaign manager, live.

my name is jamir dixon and i'm a locafor pg&e.rk fieldman most people in the community recognize the blue trucks as pg&e. my truck is something new... it's an 811 truck. when you call 811, i come out to your house and i mark out our gas lines and our electric lines to make sure that you don't hit them when you're digging. 811 is a free service. i'm passionate about it because every time i go on the street i think about my own kids. they're the reason that i want to protect our community and our environment, and if me driving a that truck means that somebody gets to go home safer, then i'll drive it every day of the week. together, we're building a better california.

let's talk briefly about the early vote here that has really changed the nature of election night, especially this year. this is live voting in las vegas, nevada. those people who did not vote early are voting on the day of the election. we want to check in, as well, with both of our correspondents, covering both campaigns. let's begin with kristen welker, covering the traveling clinton

campaign. kristen? >> reporter: brian, good evening. clinton campaign officials tell me they are feeling measured confidence heading into this evening. they're touting what they call a tremendous ground organization and the fact that secretary clinton ended this race in the way that she wanted to, on a positive note. despite all of the ugly rhetoric, the controversy surrounding her e-mails, in these final 48 hours, she was able to focus on telling the voters how she would unify the country, if she is, in fact, elected. the states that they are watching closely tonight, brian, michigan, that state that you all have been talking about, it is reliably blue. donald trump has been making a real play for that state and one clinton official telling me, because there's no real early voting there, they just don't know how it's going to turn out. of course, north carolina, also a state they're focused on, because african-american turnout and early voting wasn't as robust as they had hoped. secretary clinton preparing two speeches tonight, but the campaign saying she is really focused on what she hopes will

be a victory center here at the javits center, that has a glass ceiling, and that is symbolism that i think is lost on no one. >> thank you, kristen welker, from the very dressed up jacob javits convention center in new york. let's go across town and both celebrations, both gatherings are going to be in new york city, just as both candidates are from new york. the hilton hotel, not far at all from this building, will house the trump celebration tonight. peter alexander, peter, what have you gathered? >> reporter: brian, the ballroom is all dressed up for donald trump's arrival just a few hours from now. speaking a few minutes ago to a source close to donald trump describing what he describes as epic turnout in critical white republican counties, specifically focusing on states like michigan and new hampshire. the point that they are make right now is they are overperforming how well they were doing in those counties at this point four years ago. and they say there's so many people in those white republican counties who have yet to come home. they are also pointing out the fact that that lower than

average african-american turnout in places like michigan and north carolina will benefit them. this source says to me that barack obama's coalition is simply not behind hillary clinton. to give you a sense of how they are brimming with confidence right now, this source, again, very close to donald trump, is guaranteeing wins in states like ohio, iowa, the second district of maine, north carolina, and new hampshire. >> we'll hold them to that. that's an interesting list of guarantees. peter alexander at the new york hilton. chris matthews standing by with a special live guest. >> i've got kellyanne conway, the manager for the trump campaign. kellyan kellyanne, thank you for joining us. based upon our conversation last night, i got a sense that you folks are counting on either michigan or pennsylvania to come through for you. is that true? one of the two? >> yes. yes, it is. we think if we're going to flip a blue state, that michigan and pennsylvania look ripe for the picking, chris. that message of renegotiating bad trade deals and creating 25 million jobs over ten years, protecting the steel workers and coal miners that hillary clinton has been so critical of and promising to put out of

business, we know those messages are resting there. we like the fact that particularly in the case in michigan, the polls have been tightening over the past couple of weeks, something you see internally and now you see it externally. and we're trying to hold on to our core four and add to that with a flipped blue state. and hillary clinton and her campaign are smart people. they were following our lead back into new hampshire and colorado and pennsylvania as late. so they must see the same things i do. >> let's talk about guns and religion. it seems to me that some of the voting information i got from my brother, a lot of older people coming in to vote for trump, on the grounds of whatever they think of trump, they want to save the supreme court for their issues, critically. perhaps concerned about abortion rights and gay marriage. that was a strategy of your campaign, in the last week or so, to start pushing the gun issue with, the second amendment issue in places like pennsylvania, and also pushing the supreme court thing, the eight members of the court which will be decided by the ninth. was that something you were counting on, you could stir

those very culturally conservative second amendment people out to show up? >> it's something that donald trump's been talking about in his campaign all along. he's been -- including in that last debate, as you recall. there was a protracted conversation between secretary clinton and mr. trump about the second amendment. the heller decision, to be more specific. i thought her answer to that was not particularly a shining point for her. and he made very clear that he supports the heller decision, which found that we all have an individual right to bear arms. and in terms of the nra, they endorsed donald trump a long time ago for president. they're very powerful organization that gets out there and puts the juice and the messaging behind the candidates that they support. and of course, the supreme court, you know, chris, it's funny that you mention that, because that's an issue where even those who say, i'm torn between the two candidates or i'm reluctant to support the top of the ticket, it is the supreme court that has really crystalized and galvanized a lot of our supporters in that they realize that the next president could be responsible for three or four nominations to the supreme court, in addition,

you're talking about hundreds of appointments to the federal courts, outside of the supreme court, which, as you and i know, are in charge of at a lot of our personal liberties and pocketbook issues zplp we just heard from the clinton campaign that secretary clinton has two speeches tonight. one for the good news, one for the bad news. does your candidate follow that pattern, a ritual of having a second speech, without using the word, a second speech available, should he need it? >> our candidate feels great about what he's put on the table in building this movement. and he's prepared to -- he's prepared to address the results as he sees them tonight. >> wow, that sounds positive. thank you. back to you guys. >> i am positive. >> thank you, kellyanne. >> prepared to address the results as he sees them. >> that sounds like a yes. >> as he sees them. >> as he sees them. >> well, his son said this morning that if it's a legit result, he'll accept it. >> see, that's -- 1960, you know, it's past 3:00 in the morning, nbc has called it. nbc has called it on the basis of thinking that california is going for kennedy, which doesn't

happen, actually, in the end. and ultimately, nixon gets up in a california ballroom and gives a speech, which is him talking about the results as he sees them. and nbc anchors that night say, was that concession? i don't know -- >> well, he said, if the trends continue. >> if the trends continue, he will be our president. >> at that moment, kennedy said, that's what i would do. i wouldn't be conceding at this point. but the next morning, nixon didn't give a good concession speech. he flew across the country, never said a word, he had herb klein, his press guy do. but he had to sit down and have a couple cokes together so kennedy would actually get a concession from his opponent. >> delivering by telegram from a press secretary is not the way to do it. >> you have to do it in person, if donald trump wants to be on the newspapers tomorrow, an old concern, you have to put your face out there. >> depending on what happens tonight, and how he reacts, we may be parsing his response to figure out if it starts with -- >> people love it if the loser calls the winner and all that.

that's the detail of american politics. another break for us. sorry we have to pursue these. just a few of them. and then we'll be joined by what became one of the voices during this election season.

we are back. you're looking live at the view from 30 rockefeller plaza, looking downtown. in the distance, the jets lined up to land at laguardia and kennedy airport, but there in the foreground, the empire state building. >> god, i love this night. >> red, white, and blue for this night. well, done, empire state building. now let's talk about florida. depending on your expert, a whole lot of people are walking around this building and other buildings like it saying, when

you're florida tonight, it's ball game. that may or may not be true, but we know that florida is going to be a hunl component in this ball game. kerry sanders has been covering things up and down the i-4 corridor in florida. kerry? >> reporter: well, it is a critical part of the state, because along the i-4 corridor, which extends from tampa bay, over daytona beach, it's the population along there, about 5.5 million people, voters, who will really, ultimately, determine which way the stay goes, because to the north, you have the conservative vote, and to the south, you have the liberal vote. as we're standing here, we've had lines on and off. not a line right now. about 15 minutes or so to go, but before this poll closes and those who might be in line can still vote, and then they start tabulating the votes right inside here, in fact, in florida, they're already tabulating those absentee ballots right here in osceola county. they started about two hours ago. this is actually what it looks like. they fill in the little bubble and feed their votes into a d a

computer. and that data is sent encrypted over the internet. if there's any question, they can go back and recount the paper ballots. a little different than we saw in florida going back to 2000. >> as we say, what can go wrong? >> i can imagine the guy with the magnifying glass trying to see the little bubble. one of the roles our esteemed colleges is playing here in our sort of news family tonight is that the great chris hayes is manning a news desk. he's bringing together all the resources of msnbc and nbc news in order to follow the stuff that we may not be anticipating in terms of news stories tonight, breaking news, serious news around the country, and chris is going to come to us basically as needed as we learn new stuff. chris, i understand you've got a story tonight out of california. >> yes, with thank you, rachel. we're going to track a bunch of different breaking stories over the course of this election night. right now we have the story of an active shooter story in az a azusa, california. when officers responded, as far

as we know, from the police department there, officers were pinned down, had to take cover, and were rescued. at least two people have been brought to the hospital. that shooter is still at large, at this moment, and crucially, there are two polling locations near the spot in the residential neighborhood in azusa where this shooting took place. one elementary school on lockdown. we do not have further details about the intent of this act of violence, its resolution or the suspect. but obviously with people on high alert and this being election day, this is a story we'll be keeping our eye on along with a whole bunch of other stories throughout the night. we'll bring you updates as we have them. back to you, rachel. >> thanks, chris. let me ask you one clarifying question. there are two polling places that are implemented, but simply by geography, that they're nearby. we don't know that the shooting is connected to the polling places. >> right. there are polling places everywhere. there are two polling places that went into lockdown because of their proximity to where the

shooting is. we'll continue to figure this out. there is nothing indicating at this moment that the polling locations were targets or implicated in any way. >> all right. chris hayes, thank you. thank you very much. a, it's good to have that information on the air. b, i think, i'm very glad that we've got chris hayes in that role tonight, who's basically able to break in at any moment and bring us breaking news in places we can't predict it and stories that will continue to pop up over the course of this long night. >> related and unrelated to the national vote. lawrence o'donnell is standing by with a very special guest, lawrence. >> thank you, brian. i'm joined by khizr khan and his wife, gazala khan, the parents of captain khan. thank you very much for joining us tonight. you did your first television discussion after the convention on our program and we appreciate you doing that and being back tonight. miss khan, you didn't speak at the convention that night, because you told me, you were too emotionally overwhelmed. if you could have spoken then, what would you have said and what would you like to say to

the country now? >> because our journey is, i think, started at that, because we wanted to bring people together. we wanted to bring everyone in same direction that will take us further than taking us back. so i would have requested to pay attention about the people you love. go to them, hug each other. love them. and tell them how grateful you are. because god has given you an opportunity in this country, that you can survive. you can bring your children here. the children will make you go further in the life, far in the life. and they would have been better than we were in the other places. i love to be here in america,

because when i came here first time, i had such a nice neighbor. such a nice people. they greeted me with love. they greeted me with respect. they didn't ask me who i am. they didn't ask me if i'm a bri.

>> lawrence, thanks. our thanks to our guest. two people who never dreamed they would be a playing a role in this campaign. that's what gold star parents look like. another break for us. our last, as we approach the top of the hour in our first poll closings.

keeping the power lines clear,my job to protect public safety, while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it. public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines. we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our community safe. this is our community, this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california.

we are four minutes from the top of the hour, meaning our first poll closings. we've heard from our friends in the engine room. this thing's really going to start moving fast, coming up at 7:00 eastern time. our closings include georgia and virginia and right there, off the top, whatever it is, we are able to say about them, it's going to be interesting. >> it is going to be interesting. we're going to -- we're about to get a closing also in indiana, the home state of mike pence, donald trump's running mate, which has always been an interesting mix, in terms of its red/blue appeal.

one of the interesting things about mike pence is that he was on the precipice of running for re-election as a second term as indiana governor. a lot of people thought his prospects for getting re-elected as governor was very shaky. it was seen as very interesting, obviously, for him being on the national ticket, but also very interesting for indiana politics. we're going to see what happens in indiana, when those polls close in three minutes now. we're also looking ahead to south carolina, which is a state where one of those southern states, where democrats -- gene from south carolina. democrats have dreams of south carolina, and the democrats in that state say that it's always closer than you think it is. >> speak for all south carolina ness ne ness. >> i think clearly moving in that direction. this election, with i'm not seeing it. but two elections from now, we may be talking about the entire east coast, basically, getting pretty blue. >> mm-hmm. >> getting pretty -- >> you're predicting south carolina goes for the democrat into --

>> maybe three. our first prediction of the night. i love it! >> but it's really changing. south carolina is not the south carolina i grew up in, clearly. and the whole coastal region, which is where the population growth is -- >> which is why donald trump spent a lot of his last stretch in that upper midwest. i mean, i think this might be one of the demographic shifts. i'm not -- >> you see what happened to virginia. how northern virginia became part of the north. >> exactly. >> now chapel hill and the research triangle has become part of the north. now charleston's becoming part of the north. it's so interesting. >> let's scoot over to steve kornacki at the wall. steve, what do you have? >> well, we have poll closings coming up here in just a few minutes. two key states to be looking at. i want to set up what we'll be looking at when we get the returns in the exit poll. first of all, virginia. we're talking about these key groups. black voters. huge turnout in 2008 and 2012 for barack obama. huge margins for barack obama. you see in virginia, four years ago, 20% of the electorate in virginia was black. here's a question tonight.

is this question tonight? is it bigger, is it smaller? no secret about it. the trump campaign has been hoping that part of that obama coalition, black voters would be lower this time around. we're looking for that. we're also going to be looking again at that split among white voters, college, non-college, we'll be able to show you that. georgia's closing, too. and again, this is a state, the reason democrats are so optimistic about georgia long-term, there is a rising latino population. it's still pretty small in the state. this is actually 2008, there were no exit polls there four years ago. but the size of the black population in georgia has been exploding over the last decade or two. so here's another question. eight years ago with barack obama, a turnout of blacks, the blacks were 30% of the electorate in georgia. is that number going to be up? is that number going to be the same or fall? we're looking for that in just a minute. >> steve kornacki taking advantage of some of our early exit poll information. and looking haahead to what we' going to call. >> and at the top of this hour, we are going to get virginia and georgia. 30 minutes from now, we're looking at north carolina and

ohio. this is the really important stuff that we are about to get our first detail on, literally, within the next 30 seconds. >> for your own safety, we hope everyone is seated, because as rachel said, these are some real closings coming up, starting at the top of this next hour. and for that, we're going to swing outside to what we've always affectionately referred to as home ice advantage. it's 7:00 in the east and here are the first projections of election night 2016. in the state of georgia, we are calling it too close to call. 16 electoral votes, both parties were fascinated, like a hurricane, with last-minute wobble before coming onshore. both parties want it very badly. in virginia, ditto. 13 electoral votes, too early to call, simply not enough vote, though we're told clinton is in an early lead. here is the first projection