ohio. this is the really important stuff that we are about to get our first detail on, literally, within the next 30 seconds. >> for your own safety, we hope everyone is seated, because as rachel said, these are some real closings coming up, starting at the top of this next hour. and for that, we're going to swing outside to what we've always affectionately referred to as home ice advantage. it's 7:00 in the east and here are the first projections of election night 2016. in the state of georgia, we are calling it too close to call. 16 electoral votes, both parties were fascinated, like a hurricane, with last-minute wobble before coming onshore. both parties want it very badly. in virginia, ditto. 13 electoral votes, too early to call, simply not enough vote, though we're told clinton is in an early lead. here is the first projection in the trump column of decision

2016. that is the state of indiana, home, obviously, of his running mate, mike pence. the governor there currently 11 electoral votes. indiana, we are projecting, goes to donald trump, as does kentucky. 8 electoral votes there. that's two in a row for donald trump. we also have the first projected state for hillary clinton. and look, of all places, it's bernie sanders' vermont. 3 electoral votes, but the first, nonetheless. our electoral temperature, if you will, all evening long, we're going to be tracking up the side of our building. south carolina just added too early to call, though donald trump in an early lead. too early to call means we simply don't know enough. and down on to the ice, we go. the race to 270. it's 3 more clinton, 19 for trump. we don't have much red or much blue, quite yet. but in a little while, it will

look much different. the rink will. and there you have our first calls. >> again, reiterating those two very interesting calls right at the top there. georgia, too close to call. virginia, too early to call, with hillary clinton in the lead. south carolina also too early to call, with donald trump in the lead. it's worth just reiterating what the difference is between too close and too early. with too early, unless you're getting an indication from the news desk, from the elections desk, about who is in the lead. otherwise, too early means absolutely nothing in terms of how this might end up. it means we just don't have enough information. with too close, we have information, just not enough to actually make a projection. >> i want to take a look inside here in our big wall, at some of the senate races. the early, important name senate races, where we have projections. recognize rand paul from the republican primary process. he is returning to the u.s. senate. republican representing the state of kentucky.

tim scott is going back to the united states senate. south carolinian, republican, and in vermont, what's projected to be a victory of about 30 or so points for pat leahy. he'll be heading back, the veteran democrat from the state of vermont. and the united states senate is going to be a moving target, all night long. chuck todd is pretty convinced that if we determine control of the senate, it will be an hour followed by an a.m., and not a p.m. and it will bear tomorrow's date, and not today's. steve kornacki over at the board? >> hey, guys. well, we've got the exit polls. it's a little rough here in virginia coming in. so why is clinton leading there? one of the keys here, we're talking about this all night. white voters with a college degree. you see a clinton lead here with this group, the significance four years ago, mitt romney -- now, remember, mitt romney lost the state narrowly four years ago. mitt romney, though, won this group of voters by double digits. he won them by ten points.

this shift, no question about it. this is in the heart of suburban northern virginia, right outside the d.c. suburbs. that's where you can expect to see it, when we start getting the vote in. also the suburbs alongside richmond, exploding population. remember, tim kaine from richmond. might have a bit of an advantage there. also, you can look at this -- this is not what i wanted to show you. this is what i wanted to show you. in georgia, we're saying too close to call right now. why is that? well, check out the composition of the electorate in georgia. this is a state that's already very polarized racially in its voting. whites overwhelmingly go for the republican candidate, blacks overwhelmingly go for the democratic candidate. non-whites, as well. the question here was, what size of the electorate was each group going to be? you see black voters here tonight accounting for 30%. the last time there was an exit poll in georgia was eight years ago. 2008, barack obama, the first time he ran, he lost georgia by five. it was also 30% that night. however, the good news for democrats here, it's not only that the black share of the vote hasn't gone down, it's this.

10% of the electorate in georgia tonight is either latino or asian or they identify as other. all of these groups are voting overwhelmingly for the democrats. eight years ago, the last time we had an exit poll in georgia, the share of the vote for these voters was only 5%. so it's doubled in eight years. georgia is state where the black population is rising, but also the latino population and the asian population is rising. and you can see, that is helping hillary clinton. eight years ago, barack obama lost by five points. right now, we're saying too close to call. hillary clinton can credit those gains to these voters. >> all right, steve kornacki, over at the board, thanks and to our panel, the question, what have we learned so far. >> well, georgia's close. it's going to be a very rough night at trump tower. >> what do you make of gene's assessment that democrats are foreseeing a fully blue eastern seaboard? >> that's why i asked him to double down on it. and you didn't flinch. i think you should go with it.

you went there. you should stay there once you get there. >> i'm there. >> it's an intriguing question. it's where we started the night. and it's back to this idea of a class warfare. and is this how the modern presidential campaign will be waged? is it about those who have been left behind and those who have benefited in a globalized economy? and it makes perfect sense, then, donald trump looks really smart to have spent the final days in the upper midwest. but the question is, why wasn't he there in august? >> yeah. and, are there enough of those voters to turn enough of those states that it's going to change the map significantly enough that the republican party can bear a blue georgia? right? a blue north carolina. >> yeah. >> a blue virginia. >> and the larger problem is -- >> demographics -- >> there are a lot of people who are not white who are being left behind in this economy. so it's ultimately a recipe for failure, if the strategy is simply whites who have been left behind by a globalized economy. if you land on it as a strategy, it's incredibly cynical and destined for failure. if the only people you want to lift out of economic despair are white people, there are lots of people available to that message

who are not white. >> it's been the working strategy that they've been on. >> think about how long we talked about the solid south, though. you know, back in the old days when i was a kid, it was solid democra democr democratic. then it became solid republican. just a big block from, you know, florida all the way over through texas. the south is changing. >> for the same reason, though. they were segregationists then and they were very conservative. >> yeah, i was there. i do remember. but the south is changing and there's this fascinating sort of urban versus rural and small town split, that's taking place in the south and as these urban areas grow and become more cosmopolitan and bigger, a bigger share of the population, texas is one of the most urbanized states in the nation. so these states change. >> the republican challenge is that if you spot the other side, forget ethnicity, just numbers. if you spot the other side, a quarter of the vote to start with. that means you have to get two-thirds of the -- >> of everybody else. >> it's two-thirds of that!

>> it's impossible. >> no candidate's going to get two-thirds of the white people. >> and why would you want to? here's the other question. i ask senator barrasso -- >> i think reagan was close. >> but why would you want to win -- no offense, with just white guys? why would that be a winning strategy? why would you want to -- >> but there is something -- this is something specific about the way the trump campaign is doing it, i think. they really are -- there was this fascinating piece in "the new york times" two days ago, about actually approaching people who see themselves as part of mainstream politics now, because of donald trump who never did before. it's not normal white political ku activists. it's people who are trying to create a white homeland. it's the ragged edge of beyond-the-cliff right-wing politics. and their theory is if you can try to basically inspire enough white pride among white people who feel otherwise dislocated from politics, if you do a white nationalist approach to politics, that's why you get all this creepy nazi stuff that's up around the edges of the trump

campaign. no, they don't think it's going to work. but what they're trying to do is say, you know, it doesn't matter we're going to get less than 30% of the latino vote. we are going to get so many white people who otherwise wouldn't vote, because we're going to appeal to them in a way nobody's ever appealed to them before. that's where some of the creepiest stuff in the trump campaign has come up, but it's tied to a political strategy. >> we have a special guest who may want to react to all of this with chris matthews. >> former mayor of new york, rudy giuliani, thanks for having on. you always come on when i ask. i just love having you on to argue with. so let's start the argument. seriously, you were the guy who got re-elected on the west side of new york as a republican. so you know how to badly diverse coalition. you won there in the west side of new york. let's talk about building the republican party. can you do it if you spot the other side, african-americans, who, by the way, would be part of any nationalist movement on my part, anyway. they're part of the nationalism, and hispanics and the growing number of asian american voters. we have the other 10%.

how can you beat the other side if you spot them a quarter of the vote? >> well, you can't. the simple fact is, you can't. i won election the first time by 3%. and then i won the second time by 18. and when i won by 18, i had 50% of the hispanic vote and 19% of the black vote. and i work really hard to get there. and i don't believe that your premise that the trump campaign was designed to create some kind of white nationalist -- >> i didn't say that. >> how often -- i know, but somebody -- >> my colleague did. my argument is you have a candidate who said that the first black president was an illegal immigrant. that he snuck in here from kenya. then you had a guy who called all mexican rivals, however they came in, as rapists and murderers. that was the starting conversation in this campaign. >> okay. but then all throughout the campaign for the last four or five months, i think in any speech, at least that i heard him give, or everyone that i worked on with him, he talked about the african-american community, the hispanic

community, they're being left behind, and wanting to use, i called them, he didn't wall them that, republican solutions to their problems. which is, safety, a good job, and a good education, as opposed to rotting schools, tremendous crime, like, a person shot every two hours in chicago. and neighborhoods in which you're just not safe. and these are communities that have been controlled by democrats for 30, 40, 50 years, without the intervention of a republican or independent mayor, who was able to straighten them out. you just go compare chicago and new york, and you get a perfect comparison between a city that had a republican and then an independent mayor, who straightened it out, and a city that is over 600 murders already this year, 8 last weekend. >> those are good points to argue, but why did your candidate, and you, yourself, refer to hillary clinton as sick and almost dying most of the

campaign? and that she ought to be in prison? i mean, you can't claim to have run a clean campaign if you call your opponent at death's door and belonging behind bars? >> that is a -- that is -- that's a perfectly legitimate conclusion, from the fbi's report, that she violated the law. gosh darn it, her maid was faxing out and sending out top-secret material. i put people in jail for that. >> okay, let's start with the health claim. >> she is getting away -- >> do you believe she's healthy enough to be president? >> she is getting away with -- >> okay. >> -- a tremendous number of violations of federal law. there's a sailor who's sitting in jail right now who took three photographs of the submarine and sent it home to his mother. >> okay, well -- >> and when i was in the justice department, i had to sit there until 4:00 in the morning with top-secret material. i was too darned scared to send it home. and i certainly wasn't going to give it to my maid, if i could have afforded a maid back then. >> okay, two points of fact. first of all, james comey was

appointed -- he's a republican appointee, as fbi director. so he wasn't part of some cabal by the liberals. number two, what about hillary's health? >> i didn't say -- i didn't say he was -- >> why do you keep talking about hillary dragging her way from the philadelphia rally to the car. and that she looked like she's dying. who's doing that on your side? you are. >> i pointed out on two occasions that she looked sick. that was within three days of the day that she collapsed on september 11th. i think i was probably right. that she did look sick. >> so what's the point? >> i haven't said anything about it after that. >> but why do you say that kind of thing in a campaign? >> because she looked sick to me. she looked really sick. she looked like she was slurring her words. and she looked like she had lost her train of thought. two days later, she collapsed on september 11th. so, since then, i've been trying to get my medical degree. but i haven't gotten it yet. >> i want to ask you -- i'm out of time, but i've got to ask you. are you proud? you're a smart guy.

you're a smart politician. i've known you forever. i don't think there's anything wrong with you until this campaign. are you proud of the way you've been so loyal to trump, that i think you've gone over the top? >> i am proud of the way i conducted myself. i think every issue i raised is a legitimate issue. i think that my analysis of her legal problems is spot-on. i think that she has committed a significant number of crimes that she has gotten away with. and i think, throughout their lives, the clintons have committed a significant number of crimes that they have gotten away with. and i think that's a shame for our criminal justice system. >> okay. thank you. thank you, rudy giuliani, the former mayor of new york. thanks for joining us on election night 2016. >> and thank you, chris. to our viewers, we've been alerted to the first real numbers out of the state of florida. as you may know, there's the main portion of the state of florida, then there's the returns from the western and the florida panhandle. but these are real numbers. again, pay attention to that number in the upper right-hand

corner. 2% of the vote in. we have a long way to go. our coverage will continue after this break.

we're back. this is just one of the early states still too early to call in virginia. we're still locked at 1% of the raw vote in. obviously, we will keep a close eye on it. georgia, 1% of the raw vote in. too close to call, the data simply doesn't exist to give us a projection in the state of georgia. a lot of hopes and dreams riding on those two, for starters. ron mott is in cincinnati, in the valuable state of ohio, just across the way from the valuable state of kentucky. hey, ron? >> reporter: hey, brian. you know, this is the

stragglers' hour. and about a half hour ago, it was fairly busy in here. but it is, indeed, winding down. they've got another 12 minutes or so to vote here across the state of ohio. a lot of people have talked about what the turnout would be here in ohio. we know that the clinton campaign was a little concerned about how things would go around the state, especially here hamilton. hamilton, we saw a shift nor from red to blue. barack obama carried ohio in 2012. but this looks to be perhaps a donald trump state going into the last ten minutes of this race. we can tell you here, they had record turnout for early voting. the turnout today on actual election day is not going to be as robust as we've seen in the past. but still, we think they may be get to the figure that they had in 2012, across this county, which was 75%. about an hour ago, it was just teetering around 70%. so a pretty decent turnout, all in all. we'll know soon enough here exactly what the turnout was. >> ron mott, critical state of

ohio. steve kornacki is at the board with more of our numbers. >> yeah, well, we are waiting now. poll closings coming up in ohio, north carolina. i think you know the stakes. in both states, north carolina, president obama was down there a week ago. he said, if hillary clinton wins this, she wins the election. story of the night here. it really is about demographic composition. just how divided we are. take a look in ohio. the black vote here is critical for democrats in ohio. remember, president obama carried ohio four years ago, narrowly. that was pretty much the state that re-elected him as president. so one of the keys to that four years ago was that 15% of the electorate in ohio was black. and that represented an enormous turnout among african-americans. if you think back pre-obama, when john kerry was the democratic nominee back in 2004, that number was only 10%. so that reflects extremely high turnout. and again, that is one of the critical questions here. barack obama not on the ballot anymore. will black voters turn out in numbers like that again? democrats are going to need that to have a shot in ohio. also take a look, quickly, north

carolina, it is a similarly important question for democrats there. this is one of the -- this is a state with one of the largest black populations, voting populations. and you see, it was 23%. black voters were 23% in north carolina in 2012. this is a state that president obama nearly won. it was his biggest near-miss on the map. how close to 23 are we seeing when these polls close in north carolina this time around? >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. looking ahead to those two states, particularly those demographic issues you were just talking about, steve, i want to bring in our friend and colleague, the reverend al sharpton who's here for us tonight. al, one of the things that we have been watching across the country is the demographic split of the electorate. democrats absolutely need african-american voters to hang on in the same way, with their candidate this year, that they did with barack obama in 2008 and 2012. how do you see it? what do you think those prospects are? >> well, what i've been getting from people around the country and african-american communities, particularly in

ohio and florida and north carolina, is that in the last several days of early voting, and today, there's been a big turnout of black voters. i think the african-american vote has really been energized by, a, the president, and mrs. obama, and him tying -- president obama tying it to his legacy. and the continuation of his policies. and, frankly, by donald trump saying things that are offensive. it's very interesting, rachel, that when chris matthews, for example, raised to mayor giuliani about trump not going after the african-american vote, and the answer is, well, under democrat mayors and others, they have not done well, in the black community in some areas, he's not running for mayor. he's running for president. so the comparison, when he says, you have nothing to lose, which is what trump said, he's really talking about president obama,

who he's hoping to secede. or he's talking about democratic presidents. he's not running for local office. and they kind of pivot away from him as president, what would he have done for african-americans? so when you couple that kind of dismissive, you have nothing to lose, and you couple that with the obama legacy, i think that we start hearing the last several days, a lot more energy in the african-american community. it would be difficult in some areas to get the same vote and the same passion that you had for president obama, for obviously, this was history-making, for african-americans. but you seriously are getting a lot of people saying, we don't want to go backwards, and he clearly, donald trump, has, between the birther issue and between telling us that we have nothing to lose, black unemployment is half today that it was when george bush left office. we have a lot to lose. and i think a lot of people are voting because they have that in mind. >> and reverend al sharpton, our

friend and colleague here. reverend, good to see you. thanks, al. appreciate having you here. again, we are just 6 1/2 minutes away from north carolina and ohio closing. it's on the half hour, which makes it feel like it's not as big a deal, but both of these states are potentially earthquakes in terms of who's going to be the next president. >> so you know what i'm about to say. >> sorry? >> no, i'm always the buzzkill. i'll say, we'll take one last break and when we come back, we'll have the bottom of the hour poll closings. do not go anywhere.

we are back. take a look at that map down there on the rink, home ice advantage. those are the states closing, coming up here in under the two minutes, at 7:30. north carolina, have you heard of it? ohio, west virginia. so, we're -- we'll either get or not get some interesting numbers out on these sought-after states. >> and north carolina has been just the epicenter of just the kinetic activity of this campaign. not only because it's been seen as dead even in terms of the presidential race or close enough to dead even that both campaigns worry about it and aim for it, we've also got a close governor's race. pat mccrory going for trying to be re-elected. . and we've got a close senate

race with richard burr trying to be re-elected. democratic challengers to both of those statewide officials, that have been among the most expensive in the country, alongside the presidential effort. there's been a lot of changes in state law in north carolina, in terms of access to the polls and early voting sites and what you need to be able to vote. so north carolina has just been -- they've been through a lot in the last few years, in terms of policy and in terms of controversy, but the combat, the political combat in north carolina has been, i think, more intense than any other state in the country, because of that fight. >> rahema ellis is in raleigh. i can offer you, rahema, say, 30 whole seconds to sum up what you've witnessed there today. >> reporter: brian, what i saw here today, early in the morning, there were long lines here. later in the day, not so much. in large part because there was record turnout in terms of early voting in this state. all across the state, there were 17 days before today people got to vote. it accounted for 45% of

registered voters voting in this state, before today. >> rahema ellis, always kind of terse and right on point. tonight doing so from raleigh, north carolina. rahema, thanks very much. so, just to review, for our viewers just joining us, we've had our 7:00 closings. here are in gold on the board, the 7:30 closings and 7:30 has arrived. we have the first return will be ohio, too close to call. valuable, valuable 18 electoral votes. north carolina, we were just discussing it, too early to call. simply not enough raw result in. west virginia, on the other hand gets added to the trump pile. 5 electoral votes. speaking of electoral votes, let's see where they stack up. the night is young, there's our electoral vote thermometer there. donald trump in the lead, 24-3. of course, 270 needed to go up

and over. the races we're watching, we just wanted to let you know where they are. state of georgia, still too close to call. very early percentage of raw vote in. commonwealth of virginia, too early to call and despite how these numbers might look, our tally has collin in the lead, while the state is too early to call. and in south carolina, too early to call, and our tally has trump in the lead there. so, let's look at the red and blue map, starting to fill in a little bit. though there were very few real results here at 7:30. you see not so much a red wall as a kind of louisiana-shaped squiggle through the middle of the country. and so far, hillary clinton one called state. rob portman will be returning to the u.s. senate to represent the state of ohio. and wow, has that race been

through a lot of changes. he had a huge target on his back. here's the north carolina senate race. rachel was talking about too close to call at this hour. a whole lot of people watching that one. and the u.s. senate composition right now is about like that. that's the real moving target tonight that will be all over the place. >> that senate race has been so fascinating to watch. debo deborah ross was the challenger here. she has been a really good candidate. she's run really hard. richard burr, the incumbent, i think he's going for his third term, i might be wrong about that, but i think it is his third term. he's been kind of a laconic campaigner. he's a person who did not get out there and really aggressively campaign for his seat. it let deborah ross build up name recognition from almost zero up to the point where she was able to compete with him. i have no idea how this is going to work out in the end, but to have north carolina contending as a super-tight race in the

presidential race and a super tight governor's race, and then for that senate seat, for deborah ross to essentially come out of nowhere and give richard burr a run for his money, there's almost no place no exciting this year to watch this year than that state. >> that's why the president of the united states said squarely to the people of north carolina, the fate of the nation and perhaps the world may be riding on your vote. no pressure. steve kornacki over at the board. steve, what have we learned? >> we've got the exit polls from north carolina and ohio. two of the biggest contests on the board. let me show you what we see in these numbers. let's start in carolina, first of all, we're talking about these divides all night. white voters with a college degree. what do you see? you see trump by 13 points. keep this in mind, though. four years ago, north carolina was one of the closest states out there. mitt romney narrowly won it. when mitt romney narrowly won north carolina four years ago, this margin was 19 points. so this margin has come down. democrats have made progress. they've taken a 19-point deficit, they've reduced it to

13. the other big group of white voters, non-college white voters, blue collar white voters. what you see here, on the surface, you'd say, wow. incredible news for donald trump. a 40-point lead. keep this in mind, though. north carolina is one of these states where this white college, white non-college divide had already arrived, because four years ago, when mitt romney ran, he won this same group by 49 points. so this 40-point deficit that clinton's facing among non-college whites in north carolina, in another state, we'd say, that's a disaster for her. in north carolina, this is actually progress for democrats. what we're seeing tonight is they have done better. according to these exit polls, they have done better with white voters in north carolina than barack obama did four years ago. there's improvement there for them. also, we said, critical in north carolina is the black vote. no surprise here, you're seeing an overwhelming democratic win. 89-7 for clinton. this is a bit of a drop from four years ago. the margin four years ago, barack obama won black voters by 92 points.

we said to also look at the composition of the electorate. what share of the electorate are black voters. four years ago, 23%. tonight it does appear to be down slightly, from 23% four years ago to 21% tonight. but still, an overwhelming democratic win among black voters and progress for democrats among white voters. that is good news for them in north carolina. let me show you ohio. what we have right there. again, that college/non-college divide. ohio's a different state. and let me show you exactly why. among white voters with a college degree, you see trump winning tonight by 13 points. that is slippage for the republicans. the margin with this group for republicans was 18 four years ago. but here's how ohio is different from north carolina. that divide did not previously exist at the level it does now. what trump has done in a lot of these states, what his candidacy has done, check this out, white voters without a college degree, the lead here is 22 points for trump and that is an kbrooucimpt for the republicans. mitt romney won this group by

only 14 points. those losses among college whites, they have made up for them with non-college whites. that's a difference from what we just showed you in north carolina. and of course, there's the question of the black vote in ohio. similar to what we saw in north carolina. the margin here tonight for hillary clinton is 83 points. again, down slightly from when obama had four years ago. he won by 93. we said also critical to that question of turnout, four years ago, 15% of the electorate in ohio was black. tonight, 14. >> 15 to 14 is the change in the -- >> a slight drop. >> a lot of democrats were saying they expected that number to drop a lot more, in terms of the proportion of the electorate that's african-american in ohio. thank you, steve kornacki. i want to bring into the conversation now our friend, bob costa, reporter at "the washington post." bob, i understand that you've been talking with the trump campaign and you may also have some intel for us on the senate races tonight. >> well, a lot of republicans tonight here in washington are paying attention to senator portman in ohio. not just because it's a swing state, but because his campaign, the way he handled it, could offer a map for republicans in the future.

win or lose for donald trump. this was a former u.s. trade representative. an establishment republican. and he made overtures to trump voters early, knew he needed to work, win over working class voters. he was someone who was able to balance the conservative mainstream with this working class populism. and it seems to have worked. >> in terms of the trump campaign tonight and how they're looking at the results overall, we heard from peter alexander at trump campaign headquarters, bob, them saying, that they're guaranteeing a win in a number of states, including ohio, including michigan. they're very, very confident. he described them as brimming with confidence. do you have any information from your reporting as to whether or not that's an act or whether that is a legitimate organic confidence, that they're feeling tonight in terms of their hopes for the presidency? >> just got off the phone with multiple trump insiders. they say donald trump is up in his apartment as trump tower, sipping diet coke, watching television. a lot of his aides and family members say, mr. trump, maybe turn off the tv for a little bit until all the polls close, but

he's watching everything. and they keep getting these reports of high turnout among white working class voters in some of the states they've been targeting, like pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin and elsewhere. at the same time, they're not all brimming with confidence, because they see high turnout for democrats in those same states. >> bob costa with "the washington post," at "the washington post" newsroom tonight. we'll be checking back in with you. appreciate where are time tonight, sir. >> we are scanning for more to report in terms of raw numbers. we're going to take another break and we'll be back on the other side with that.

we are back. here's an update on ohio. too close to call. 1% of the vote in, and a whole lot of people watching this state. anne thompson is standing by for us in columbus, with the secretary of state for the state of ohio. and we're looking into what might be going on at polling

places there tonight, anne? >> reporter: brian, in fact, let me take you into the secretary of state's war room here in the statehouse in columbus, ohio. this is where workers are monitoring what's going on in 88 counties. that's how many counties that voted today that will determine where ohio's 18 electoral votes go to tonight. secretary of state, john husted, thank you very much. we have been with you today in dayton and in columbus. lots of concern about voter intimidation. have you seen any of those problems today? >> well, there was a lot of concern about that, low voter turnout, but fortunately, we didn't see any of the voter intimidation materialize and fortunately, we had very strong voter turnout today. >> there have been lawsuits filed in nevada, in north carolina, other states across the country. what about here in ohio? >> well, things went so smoothly today, we were able to avoid any of those last-minute lawsuits that we've seen in past years. i would give the voters of this state an "a" for their great behavior today. >> reporter: we -- how soon can

you expect numbers? you had huge early voting numbers here. when will we actually start to see those returns? >> in a matter of minutes. 7:45, we're about to go live with our election night reporting system. so voters will know what -- well, voters will know what was done in ohio here in a few minutes. >> polls closed about 15 minutes ago at 7:30. any problem with people trying to get in? >> at the 9,000 precinct locations, we know of one that we know of that there are lines at right now. but that should dissipate shortly and everybody's vote will be cast and we'll begin the counting process. >> reporter: mr. secretary, thank you very much. that's it, brian. we should know in just a matter of minutes just what the early voting numbers were here in ohio. brian, back to you. >> anne thompson, thanks. at the state capitol with the secretary of state. we're back here with our panel, which we should make plain, our family members will be coming and going all evening long. why kasie hunt is with us for

this hour, former ap political reporter based out of washington, but, of course, you know her as one of our road warriors. nbc news correspondent covering this campaign. and steve schmidt, who you may know from our broadcasts, but you should also know is a veteran of many an election and campaign effort, most recently the mccain campaign. welcome to the two of you. chris matthews, any word from home, philadelphia? pennsylvania? >> a lot of strong turnout in the liberal area of rittenhouse square and the more conservative cultural areas, traditional conservative areas of the suburbs. >> is this a mathews family -- >> it's everybody, it's everybody. it's all kinds of people. and pennsylvania, i will argue with you, has played a more prominent role in this election than north carolina, although i do like north carolina. i think pennsylvania has been the start of the democratic national committee was held there. a lot of material coming in -- >> they don't have governor's race, though. >> your points are correct. >> kasie hunt, what do you want to know? what are you looking at? >> i'm looking, actually, at north carolina. i'm sorry to agree with rachel.

this is where the clinton campaign, i think, has the vast majority of their focus right now. they think it's going to be potentially late into the night. it is kind of the fulcrum of so many different issues, whether it's kind of the culture wars, there's just so much going on there. and it's going to tell us what might happen, say, in georgia. this is really kind of the new democratic map runs through the south, runs through north carolina, runs through georgia. and it's moving away from ohio and pennsylvania. >> steve schmidt, same question? >> looking at florida, looking at north carolina, i think we have really clear indications of a direction of the night once we have a little bit more data from those states coming in. >> north carolina right now, obviously, president obama was able to win north carolina once, but not twice. i'm not sure that the republican party effort this year took the lessons of romney's success there to heart. it seems like trump has tried to win north carolina and not the same way that romney did. and not necessarily even appealing to the same parts of the state, with a different kind of message. is that fair to say, you think, steve? >> i think it's fair to say.

and look, the electorate as a whole is going to be less white than it was four years ago. just demographically in the country. and i think also, as the race starts to move west, we look at florida, these returns come in. the size of the hispanic vote in this election, i think, is going to be something to behold. last time republicans won the popular vote in a presidential election, george w. bush, 2004, 43% of the hispanic vote. not going to have that number tonight. >> you know, what's really smart? because rachel said something about how you address the current north carolina, as opposed to what it was 20, 30 years ago. when it was a segregationist state, or longer than that. but clearly, it's an entrepreneurial state right thousand. it's the research triangle. young families are moving into that area of raleigh, chapel hill, and durham to build futures, and non-regional futures, global economy futures. and i think that's probably what mitt romney appealed to, whereas trump doesn't. trump's playing the old cards. >> and there's so much angst

about that exact issue in north carolina. because they brought on pat mccrory as their -- what they thought was their business-oriented mayor of charlotte, you know, sort of n centrist republican governor. and he ended up being a culture war -- of this stuff over the bathrooms. and it was bad specifically for the business climate in that state. it ended up being a key issue there. >> it is a fascinating aspect, as we think about the culture wars. so we've called the race for rob portman the first senator of the republican party to be for gay marriage. a lot of threats directed at his way. no impact, no impact in the primary. easily re-elected. mccrory in north carolina gets into these culture war issues, and they backfired on him particularly. and he may well pay a price for that tonight. so that's an interesting drama. >> we are about 12 minutes right now from the next big round of poll closings tonight, including florida, new hampshire, pennsylvania, missouri, maine, a lot of states where the --

again, the fate of the presidency, let alone a lot of down-ticket races are going to turn. joining us now is missouri senator, claire mccaskill, who's a democrat, she's a hillary clinton supporter. senator mccaskill, it's great to see you. thanks for being here tonight. >> my pleasure! >> so democrats haven't won the presidential vote in missouri since 1996. donald trump, i think, it's fair to say, is favored in your state, in missouri tonight. we'll find out in just a few minutes. what's your secret? how did you get elected there, statewide, when other democrats have had such a hard time in missouri and statewide races? >> well, you know, the thing about missouri that i love is that the people who decide statewide elections in my state, don't look at party as much as they look at the individual. and frankly, the presidential campaigns haven't come to missouri to campaign since 2008, when barack obama barely lost in our state. so, tonight, i am optimistic that we're going to elect another democrat to the u.s. senate in missouri, and ooi'm vy

hopeful that we'll continue to have a democratic governor in missouri. they are perfectly willing to go back and forth across the ballot for candidates that they they think are going to work hard, even if they disagree with them on some things. >> in that senate race, roy blunt has been winning elections in missouri since i only had a learner's permit to drive. roy blunt is pretty much a household name in that state. but jay kantor, iraq war veteran, former military intelligence officer, he's really giving roy hublunt a run for his money. what are you attributing the closeness o of that race to? is jason kantor a really, really good candidate, or do you think that missouri is trending more down the middle this year, as you say? >> well, i think there is -- this is a year where the plate shifted somewhat on the issue of insider and outsider. and jason was able to, because he is very young, a young veteran, really speak to

missourians about, maybe it's time we send different people to washington. and we don't have enough veterans in the senate, especially young veterans. and we're a military state. and i think that appealed to a lot of people. he kept saying, you don't change washington if you don't send different people to washington. and i think that resonated. i think the the fact that roy b has been around so long actually worked against him in this race. >> senator, forgive me, i have to interrupt. we have a projection. south carolina now on the board for donald trump. nine electoral votes there. let's take a look at the road to 270 in map form, as south carolina takes its place as a red state. this just came in at the end of the senator's last answer there. >> senator, apologize for that. but this tells us the overall electoral numbers. at this point four states called for donald trump, indiana, kentucky, south carolina and west virginia. one state called thus far for hillary clinton. we're about to hear from a

number of states at 8:00, including senator mccaskill's home state of missouri. senator, let me ask you to finish your thought mr. about jason kander and roy blunt. >> i just was saying that this is a hard year to be so familiar to voters. i think hillary clinton struggled with how familiar she was to voters. there's a lot of people out there right now that want something different. sometimes different isn't always better, but in the case of missouri, jason kander will be terrific. >> one last question for you, senator. yesterday was the 100-year anniversary of the first time a woman was elected to the u.s. congress, jeanette rankin, from montana, elected to congress at a time when she as a woman was not even allowed to vote even for herself. yesterday we lost sadly the first woman to ever serve as attorney general in this country when janet reno died. she will not live to see the election results tonight. as somebody who's been a pioneer in politics in your own way who's written about this, written about being sometimes

the only woman in the room and certainly the only woman at the level of political office you've risen to, what do you think it means? what do you think it will change in our country if hillary clinton breaks that glass ceiling tonight? >> well, first of all, i hope that the whole country gives her a chance. i hope we put our country ahead of all the divisive partisan ugly talk in this campaign. and the other thing it means is that young girls will now not be told by their mothers like i was, you can be anything, they can see it. and i know how badly i miss my mom tonight. i'm going to have a hard time getting through the night without thinking of her words ringing in my ear. you can run the world, claire, i promise you you can. and tonight hillary clinton is going to prove to young web that they absolutely can be president of the united states. >> senator claire mccaskill of missouri, just eight minutes away from poll closings in your home state, senator. thank you for being with us tonight. it's exciting. thanks a lot. >> thank you. and one more break before we come up on the top of the hour poll closings. we're back with more right after this.

we are back, a very busy studio. a lot of hustle and bustle. >> it feels like we're in a nascar pit right now. >> there are parties in new york city quieter than just off camera here. steve kornacki is at the wall with some numbers in on florida. steve? >> we've got a lot of numbers in on florida. remember, this is a state where

we paid close attention to the early voting, the demographic trending. statewide right now hillary clinton with a lead of about 160,000 over donald trump, and you can see obviously a lot of the vote is in. let me show you a few of the places we were looking at. one of the critical counties here, miami-dade county. we're talking about a majority latino county here. barack obama four years ago, remember, he carried florida by less than a point, running up a big margin was a key to that. he got 62% of that. we see hillary clinton at 64%. what this appears to represent, all of these votes that you're seeing from miami-dade, this appears to be all of the early vote. remember, they had vote by mail and also had the in person scan your ballot. it appears that's what that represents. you see how it still says 0% so there will still be some same-day vote to come in but that is a slight improvement off a number that was critical to barack obama winning the state. broward four years ago, the number for obama was 67.

we're seeing 70 now. some same-day vote to come in. the number here in palm beach was 58 four years ago, now we're seeing 61. these are encouraging signs for the clinton campaign. also hillsborough county, clinton is on the number that barack obama got four years ago, he got 53%. romney's number was 46. you see trump lagging a bit. remember, third-party candidates here. where is donald trump's strength in this state? it's the rural areas, especially. the panhandle as it comes in. i'll show you one particular -- this is a tiny county but this is representative of something i think we'll see nationally tonight. the rural vote. this is taylor county, it's tiny. but you see donald trump getting 75% of the vote here. this is about ten points better than mitt romney did four years ago so that's one of the patterns we're looking for as well. these individual rural counties don't add up to much. you put them together, they start to. but overall clinton, we'll give you the most recent number, clinton continuing to lead. it's about 150,000 votes right

now. about three-quarters of it's in. >> steve, one of the common wisdom thing that lay observers have been saying about this race is that hillary clinton conceivably has a path to 270 without florida but donald trump really doesn't. it is more key to his path than it is to her. is that fair to say? >> absolutely. let me see if i can pull this up and show you. this is the national map that's just starting to be filled in. here's what i can tell you. if donald trump were to lose florida, he needs to -- first of all, he needs to win michigan. he then needs to find another rust belt state, probably like pennsylvania. you look at it this way. if you're trump, you're losing 29 electoral votes if you lose florida. you've got to find 29 in blue states. so if you won a michigan, you're getting 16. you're still 13 short. you go out to colorado, that's only nine. that's not going to get you there. you probably need like a pennsylvania, 20 and 16, 36. that would offset florida, but you've got to find two big blue

states. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. >> by the way, with or without graphics, we look at you as steve kornacki master of graphics, but there's so much more there. we have 16 states and the district of columbia here as we approach this hour. we have a lot more projections as we approach this hour. and let's do it. 8:00 eastern time, let's go outside to rockefeller plaza, up the side of the building we go. the state of florida. we have as too close to call. 29 electoral votes. pennsylvania, too early to call. 20 electoral votes. new hampshire, too early to call. 4 highly fought-over electoral votes. illinois goes to the clinton column. of course the home originally of hillary clinton. a big state, 20 electoral votes, part of the blue wall, as is