democrats or liberals, progressives, bernie people. but there are people that are holding their nose. we have a call. you're up. >> we have a call. >> poll closings. >> yeah. we're going to go outside. 9:00 eastern time, here are the polls closing all in gold. there's the list to the right. let's go outside and begin this thing. here are the states we are watching at 9:00 eastern. it's a long list, get ready. michigan, too close to call. arizona, too early to call. 11 electoral votes. wisconsin, too early to call. colorado, too early to call. texas has been awarded to donald trump. texas stays red, as does kansas. no wobble there. sportsman paradise, louisiana, eight electoral votes projected

to donald trump. nebraska projected to donald trump. the state of new york reliably blue and its 29 electoral votes stays with hillary clinton. north dakota, trump. to go with it, south dakota, trump. in the rockies, wyoming, three electoral votes, trump. minnesota, too close to call at this hour. new mexico and this was fascinating to see the action out there, too early, clinton leading. let's look at our bar graph and look at the only numbers that really matter tonight and that is the race to 270. and right now donald trump is leading that 137-104. >> donald trump more than halfway there to 270 if he is going to hit 270. >> so here's what we're looking at in terms of battle grounds. florida, too close.

ohio, too close to call. georgia, one of the early closes, too close to call. north carolina, a genuine battleground. i'm sorry, georgia, too close to call. new hampshire, too close to call. virginia, too close to call. missouri, too early to call. and maine, too early to call. clinton ahead. >> interesting, we've only got about 4% of the vote in in missouri and in maine. that gives you a hint as to why those are too early to call. but the call is not early, it's close in pennsylvania, new hampshire, florida, north carolina, virginia, ohio, georgia. a lot of uncertainty right now. and trump really locking up the traditional red states. the democratic pipe dream that texas will some day go purple if

not blue, that pipe dream stays in the pipe for another cycle. >> look at the continuity -- contiguousness of the republican support in the electoral college. all except for that one south carolina, all connected. >> that is the red wall of the gop from north to south and almost from east to west. we're waiting for the western time zones obviously. back inside here in the studio, we have a senate call to make and we have two people here at the desk who know and worked for this guy. john mccain, who had a primary challenge, who will be 86 years old at the end of his new six-year senate term, has been re-elected to the senate. steve schmidt,le wallace, you first steve. >> when you talk about john mccain being 86 years old, i think his mom just turned 105. >> she's kicking too.

>> absolutely. i have no doubt he's still going to be going strong into his 90s. but, look, he's an important voice on national security issues in the country. he's someone when we look at the vi vi vileness of this campaign, his life story, his commitment to country, we could use a couple of john mccains in the united states senate. >> no matter your definition of hero? >> that was a remarkable -- that was a remarkable thing. that was last summer, the summer of 2015 when donald trump came out and basically criticized john mccain for having been captured and held prisoner during vietnam. and john mccain did not respond at the time and he ultimately held his endorsement for a long time. gave it to donald trump, he withdrew it at the end after some concern about some other trump comments, but mccain refused to make that about himself. he made that comment reflect on donald trump.

he refused to get engaged in that. i just thought that was a moment that -- he's had a lot of tests in his life, but what a test for him. >> and this wasn't the surrender of singapore, this guy was shot down over the enemy capital and landed in a lake and beat him up. >> john mccain's heroism isn't something for donald trump to give or to take away. he endured things that are really, frankly, beyond the comprehension of people to even think about and he's a true hero of this country. >> and it's interesting. we thought he'd have a tough race here, but this is a poll closing call for him in arizona. >> and we talked about one of the lakts of the night, how different senate republicans were going to deal with the trump question. john mccain, that was interestingly. even when he came under direct attack from donald trump, he as you said didn't make it about himself, he kept that endorsement. he was one like senator portman and senator ayotte who withdrew their support after the "access

hollywood" tape came out and he said he would write in his friend, lindsay graham. so we have people who have won with all different approaches to the trump question. >> lindsey graham will be going back to the senate. he wasn't up in this cycle. i do believe, correct me if i'm wrong, but i believe lindsey graham announced today that he was voting for evan mcmullin for president. if it is president trump, he'll have an interesting relationship with the members of his own party. >> and there are six members of the never trump caucus. mike lee never endorsed him, but there were a lot of republicans who never came around. >> you guys want numbers? >> i want numbers. >> i have new numbers. steve kornacki has new numbers at the board. steve. >> yeah, north carolina, we've been watching this move all night. again, remember about an hour ago we were looking at a six-point clinton lead. donald trump, he has grabbed a lead here of about 7,000 votes in north carolina. again, what is happening is a lot of these small counties, these small red counties are

trickling in with big numbers for donald trump and big turnout so he continues to make progress. what's left on the map and for democrats in terms of hillary clinton trying to erase this defic deficit, we keep showing you mecklenburg county, largest in the state. this is charlotte. what you're looking at here continues to be -- this is the early vote. we do not know, we have not yet seen the same-day vote. we don't know what size that is exactly. but we do know that this county in 2012 went for barack obama with 61% of the vote so you're seeing hillary clinton get 66 in the early vote. the question is how much of the same-day vote will she get? how many votes will be cast there, because again, she's now operating as the vote comes in and you can see it's updated again. she's now operating from a 14,000 deficit there. quickly i can also show you what is going on in virginia. the margin, 102,000 votes for trump. the story here, though, continues to be, we talked about it earlier, those suburbs of washington, d.c. heavily populated, very democratic. let me show you a couple of these. and what we can see in terms of

the results right now. take a look at fairfax. this is the granddaddy of them all up there in northern virginia. you have a lead right now for hillary clinton of 56,000 votes. i can tell you four years ago shall the margin here -- i could have told you that a minute ago, she can still get votes out of here, probably about 20,000 more in terms of a margin, so she can collect some out of fairfax, she can collect some out of arlington. it looks like, yes, prince william county, there's still probably 15,000 she could get here and also still vote out in richmond. so richmond, northern virginia, there's still certainly a path for hillary clinton in virginia to overcome that lead now of 103,000 votes for donald trump. as that heavily democratic vote comes in, it's also pretty much build filled in here. there's also vote from republican counties still trickling in so that could offset what she's picking up there. >> steve kornacki at the board. steve schmidt, nicolle wallace, what do you make of it?

>> it's going to be a long night. and i think that some of us, myself included, were harshly critical of his sort of idea about a last-minute path that would include one of those michigan, minnesota, but if it turns out that he sweeps these battleground states, that certainly holds the key for him to flip a michigan or minnesota. >> and michigan and minnesota are not too early to call, they're both too close to call right now. >> look, there's no question that they're nervously optimistic at trump tower. you have a lot of sweat on the brow at clinton campaign headquarters right now. this was not what they were expecting. they were expecting, i think, a pretty early night, but they're looking at leads in these states that are pretty substantial. you have for trump with a lot of vote coming in. >> howard fineman has been talking to the clinton camp here in new york and let us know that he has some reporting on that front. howard? >> yeah, brian, earlier today and just a few hours ago, the

clinton people were saying that they expected to win florida by five points. that was the internal talk. that's obviously not happening. and, you know, my role at huff post is to cover politics, but also to help run our international editions. we have 16 of them. and around the world, people have been looking at us in america saying is this brexit? is this brexit again? that is the british vote that surprised everybody in the establishment in the uk about leaving the eu. and you've got to say based on what we've seen so far that this is a gigantic shout from nonglobal america, nonglobalist america, to use that term, of no. they're saying no. and donald trump, whether he wins or loses, accurately channelled that anger and that giant shout of no about the global economy, about the knowledge economy and so forth,

and florida is the way you're seeing it. the fact that virginia is as close as it is right now is not a good sign for the clinton camp. >> howard fineman here in new york, thank you for that. lawrence o'donnell standing by with james carville. >> i'm with james carville and michael steele. what is the clinton camp worried about most looking at this board? >> well, florida is a concern. if we lose virginia, we'll probably lose the election or be close to it. i'd say right now i was expecting to be in a better mood at this point than i am right now, i'll be honest with you. look, there's a lot left to counting and not anything like that, but i fully expected that we would be better off than we are right now. >> michael steele, the republican states coming in the way they were supposed to come in, texas, which actually had an hour or two of suspension tonight. >> yeah. i never understood that one, but okay. we'll play along with that one. >> but here we are now. it's down to the battlegrounds. >> yeah, it is. you're looking at what's happening in michigan, north

carolina, virginia, and certainly as james said florida. the fact of the matter is, and a number of folks have touched on it tonight. there was an expectation that the hispanic vote was going to outperform and do this voodoo and they did, they did it well. but what people continue to underestimate in this election is the white vote. that vote that is not hunkered down in the cities, that is outlining those cities, that's out in the rural and the suburban areas. trump knew they were there. he went out there, he found them. there's a reason and a methodology to the madness of the campaign in terms of that. so it's paying dividends for him at the moment. >> one of the things i would caution you, in broward, i'll told that it's just the early vote that's in. same thing in -- that's ft. lauderdale. in mecklenburg, north carolina, we just mentioned that it was just the early vote in. now, i have no idea of how much is in, but there's got to be a lot of votes out there, same thing in fairfax.

so i want to be sort of cautious here and not say this thing -- >> and i agree with that. but you have to -- the caution is also muted a little bit by the fact that you still have a lot of republican vote in florida in the panhandle especially that's going to offset -- that's going to eat into her ability to hit that 116,000 difference that it is right now. >> if in fact 15% is in in broward, then i can see her still catching up. but i'm not sure of the figures i'm getting what's early vote and what's not. >> brian, back to you. >> all right, lawrence o'donnell with our insiders. >> can we put up the florida board again at this point. we're just watching these numbers trickle in. right now there's 93% of the vote there. you see donald trump with a more than 100,000 vote lead. we talked about this a little bit earlier on, not just in terms of which way florida is going to go but what that says about the presidency. a lot of people felt coming into this that hillary clinton would love to win florida, but she doesn't have to win florida. donald trump has to win florida.

if he doesn't, he is almost precluded in realistic terms from getting there. once he's got it, though, i don't know how narrow a path we're talking about for clinton. she doesn't need it, but if she doesn't have it, how much harder is it going to be for her to get there. that's one of the things everybody has in mind looking toward that florida number. we're getting to 93% now. i think steve actually has a little bit more to explain to us about what's coming in. >> didn't james carville just make news too with virginia? i feel like headlines are being written off what james carville just said about virginia. >> he said if we lose virginia, we're losing the election. >> there's a lot we're seeing that i don't think anybody in politics expected they'd be seeing tonight. let me take you through florida and what's left of the vote. the gap is 132,000 votes in florida. she needs to make up against -- oh, this stupid thing. okay. 132,000 votes. now, you just heard talking about broward county, big population center, big

democratic county. there is still vote out in broward, especially. let me show you, though, this looks like the early vote that's in. we say only the early vote is in. the total vote for democrats, the problem is that the total vote in this county was about 750,000. so you can do the math. yeah, there is same-day vote out, but same-day vote isn't what it used to be. most of the vote is early vote. we don't know exactly what the turnout is going to be today. they could shatter what they saw in 2012 and squeeze even more out of it, but most of the vote is in there so hillary clinton clearly running at a clip like that, 69% or so give or take is going to make up a lot of ground. there is also, though, outstanding vote in republican areas. i think if i'm seeing this right, the biggest area of the state, the biggest republican area of the state where there's still outstanding vote is right here, marion county. so gains the democrats make in that same-day vote in broward will be offset partially by gains donald trump makes up here. there is still, i believe, i think i can show you this right

here. yes, santa rosa county, there's also outstanding vote here it appears. donald trump is getting three-quarters of the vote there. so he will offset some of the gains clinton makes in broward and some in palm beach and miami-dade. so overall when you're looking right now, let's see if it's changed since i started talking, you're looking at a gap of 148,000 votes there. that gap has gone up just as i'm talking for hillary clinton. there are some big democratic areas there. this t is a question of how much the turnout was but the math is complicated. there are republican areas too. >> steve kornacki at the board. maria teresa kumar is here with us in our newsroom. maria, the clinton campaign has been pointing to spikes in the latino vote for some time. what do you know, what are you learning tonight? >> one of the things that we founding is that basically 36% of the latinos that have cast a vote in florida are first-time voters, meaning that they didn't vote in 2012, more than likely not before, so that's a big

deal. for the democratic party the fact that donald trump helped increase the base is going to be significant and the republican party will have to come to jesus with that community. also in florida what's interesting is you have roughly about 100,000 republicans that voted for hillary clinton but then went ahead and voted for marco rubio. so one of the things i'm looking at as we look at how close this election is in florida is how many republican areas are still going to continue voting for marco rubio but they're going to switch their ticket to hillary clinton on the top. >> all right, maria teresa kumar, thanks. another break for us now. we'll come out if we learn any news. on the other side we will hear from, among other people, a close clinton surrogate from the javits center here in new york tonight.

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we are back. there is the blue and red on the way to 270 superimposed on our home ice skating rink out back

here. this story line tonight -- at the top of the evening, i bengt over backwards to assure our viewers there was no secret answer or path to 270 that some pollsters had delivered to the news media and we were sitting out here play acting it. no, this is the race -- >> we're as much on the edge of our seats as you are. >> this is -- yes, yes, you could say that. this is the race as you're seeing it. stove co steve kornacki is over at the board looking at a state we haven't talked about in a few minutes, ohio. >> let's take a look at ohio. donald trump, if he's able to win some of those states, we're talking about ohio becomes critical for him and becomes an absolute must-win state. trump is leading by 200,000 votes over hillary clinton. the good news for hillary clinton, the good news for democrats, you look at a place like cuyahoga county, cleveland in presidential elections, probably about a third of the vote is in there. a lot of vote still to come in. obviously going to be a big clinton margin there. this is where columbus is, another clinton margin.

probably a little less than half the vote is in there so there are definite big pockets on this map where hillary clinton can make up ground. but again, and this is a theme you'll hear from me and probably have heard from me like a broken record tonight. it's the small rural counties and let me show you exactly what i mean. we've talked about youngstown itself being the prototypical trump area, white, blue collar, working class. youngstown itself, you can see actually this is about what democrats usually get out of there. no surprise there. but it's the rural areas around there. check this out. let me go right down here and show you compared to 2012 what we're seeing tonight. trump is leading here by 40 points. mitt romney's four years ago was 12. tonight it is 40. right down here, jefferson county, donald trump's margin is 27. mitt romney's was 5 points four years ago. and this one right here, donald trump in belmont county by 36

tonight. mitt romney's margin here was 8 points. these are masmall counties but multiply this by hundreds because we're seeing it in ohio and seeing it all over the country tonight. >> steve kornacki, that's one way of displaying it. >> yeah. well, i mean honestly what's happening right now big picture is that there's nothing that donald trump has won that was on the clinton map of expectations. there's no state that everybody assumed and the clinton campaign assumed would be theirs that has now gone to donald trump. what's happened is in ohio, steve was just explaining, in virginia, in florida, in new hampshire, in michigan, in minnesota, in north carolina and all of these places that the clinton campaign is planning to win or hoping to win or trying really hard to win, it's too close to call. >> the reds are redder. the republicans voting in this election are motivated. >> yes, that's exactly right. you're getting places -- you're not getting places to flip from

romney -- from obama to trump, but the places that went for romney are going for trump by even larger margins in some places, as steve was just explaining. >> we've had a bit of a change of personnel. kasie hunt is here with us, steve schmidt is here with us. if you follow hockey, it's just the next line. kasie, you've been off reporting. what can you report about what both parties are witnessing here? >> there's been a pretty dramatic shift in the conversation that's going on with the people that i have been talking to all night. at 7:00 both democrats and republicans that i was talking to were saying we're confident hillary clinton is going to win this election. we think that democrats are going to win the senate with either 50 or 51 seats and i was -- that seemed to be an across-the-board opinion, both establishment republicans and democrats. i would say that that has changed pretty dramatically in the last two hours. obviously there's still a lot of information out. we could go county by county and explain why that is but there

are a lot of democrats who are nervous about what's happening, particularly in florida. they're seeing such high vote rates for trump that they're starting to wonder what does this mean for pennsylvania and michigan. i also have sources who are now saying that, hey, democrats have much less chance of taking the senate back right now. there was a conversation i just got off the phone with senator joe manchin, because i've been picking up a lot of intense speculation that in the event there was a 50-50 senate, he might be somebody who would switch parties, potentially become an independent. was he telling people in west virginia he was going to become an skbnlt. i have to tell you, i couldn't get a firm commitment from him that he was definitely going to be a democrat for the next two years. he says, no, i'm not going to say that. but on the other hand he wanted to quash some of the speculation and say, hey, i still really believe in hillary clinton. that was his main message. he says she went back to west virginia, you remember that kind of mistake she made talking about coal miners and putting them out of work. she went back to correct that. so a lot of interesting chatter

behind the scenes right now. >> joe manchin is one of those -- it's interesting. joe manchin and claire mccaskill we think of as very different cats. ideologically the two are not that far from one another. when claire mccaskill runs in missouri, she brags about the fact that she considers herself to be and is considered by some publications to be the centrist, the fulcrum on which the senate turns in terms of her spot in the ideological number line. joe manchin looks like a republican in some of the ways that he votes but his loyalty to hillary clinton in this race has been an important thing for the democratic party in terms of its sense of itself. >> let's hear what the clinton camp is telling kristen welker over at the javits center at clinton headquarters tonight, kristen. >> well, brian, there's obviously a lot of focus and concern about the fact that florida is so close. obviously those early returns that we saw very early in the evening suggested that the heavily democratic areas were turning out in big numbers, but

now those heavily republican areas answering. i've been talking to top clinton campaign officials who say, look, we're not panicking, we have a number of paths to 270. and that's what secretary clinton's surrogates are saying as well. they say, look, we never thought that we needed to win florida, but it's a game-over state. but, brian, i have to tell you, if she doesn't win florida, obviously it makes her path tougher so you're looking at states like virginia, pennsylvania, colorado, michigan as must-win. so that takes me to michigan. i have been surveying all of the surrogates here, campaign officials who say they are going to hold court in michigan. they go back to the ground game, the fact that she has 35 offices set up there. they have been set up there for months now and they have been pounding the pavement for days. so they think they're going to hold court in michigan. but obviously the stress level has gone up a notch here as they have seen how close florida is. brian. >> there's a palpable -- i know

someone is speaking, but in shots of the crowd earlier tonight as people were arriving and very excited thinking they were going to be present at what was very clearly and obviously a victory rally, now we're watching what appears to be videotape of chuck schumer talking? >> that is correct, brian. and i have to tell you, at the beginning of this night, there were moments in which this crowd broke out into cheering. those moments are getting fewer and far between, and i think you pick up on the optics and the mood in the room, brian, which certainly has become a lot more tense as they have seen these screens light up with a lot of red. but again, secretary clinton's top surrogates say they're still confident that she has a path to 270, that she still has a number of paths to 270. but florida making everyone a little bit more jittery than they had anticipated at this hour. >> 9:28 eastern time, we don't have answers. >> no.

and we've got all of -- that's exactly the exact right banner to put up there. too close to call, florida, virginia, pennsylvania, new hampshire, michigan and minnesota. all too close to call. granted, the night is young. a lot will happen an a lot of those states will get resolved. but in florida we got 94% of the vote in and it's still too close to call. north carolina, three-quarters of the vote is in, virginia, more than three-quarters of the vote is in and these are still close. obviously this is going to be down to the wire in a lot of these places. chris. >> it's an uneven situation. we would have expected georgia, if this was a good night for trump, to have gotten georgia a long time ago tonight. so that's a question there. so he's not strong across the board i don't think. but i've been saying pennsylvania is the firewall and i think it's -- but who could have predicted this anyway. i'm not going to say i know what's going to happen. i don't know, this exurb vote we're hearing about, we've been polling in this country for a century and polling presidential elections that long and trying

to get it right. if we're -- well, we'll see. it's early. >> the one big question about tonight was always was everybody wrong. were all the polls wrong. were they failing to account for this x factor of these voters who were suddenly so motivated, angry, many of whom who had been democrats for decades. it's possible we're seeing that play out. >> steve schmidt, people i know discuss doing segments in our business on these new words that entered our lex cicon like brex and fark. you'd hear these words at a trump event and that was the context. >> look, this is the second of four really consequential global elections. the next will be the french presidential, the german chancellor's race. this phenomenon is playing out across the whole of the western democracies fueled by a collapse of trust in institutions. we look at these results early on tonight, politics is an expectations game. and no one had the expectation

that we would be sitting here looking at the margins, donald trump vastly overperforming expectations of where this would be at this hour tonight. this is much closer than democrats were saying. and you have to be worried tonight if you're a democrat who was saying earlier that if donald trump is going to lose florida by 5 points, you're obviously seeing this surge of rural vote in the state and that vote, if it surges in ohio, if it surges in pennsylvania, if it surges in michigan is going to become a very, very long night for the clinton campaign. >> it's also an interesting diagnostic moment for the professional nature of politics. i mean hillary clinton has outspent donald trump in terms of ads, she has outorganized him in terms of field offices, her ground game is not only vastly bigger, it's vastly more intense, it's better integrated with the democratic party. trump has done all of these

things either not at all or in a new way or handing it off to the republican party that when rubber meets the road, he won't be able to execute. he also made it through the republican primary process spending 5 cents on ads and beating 17 other candidates. so he may be showing that again tonight. >> they're tied, trips to florida over the course of this campaign, 25-25. we're going to take a break. the same warnings, if something happens, if one of these states flips and we are able to make a call, we'll come flying out of the break. otherwise we'll be back right after this.

9:36 p.m. eastern time. let's take a look at where we are. the following states we have as too close to call. starting with florida. a razor's edge race there. pennsylvania, too close to call. 20 electoral votes. ohio, too close to call. georgia, too close to call. michigan, too close to call. north dakota, too close to call.

virginia, too close to call. minnesota, too close to call. new hampshire, too close to call. to the electoral race, the race to 270, 137-104, advantage trump. steve kornacki is at the board with some new numbers in virginia and florida they tell me? >> yeah, let's take a look at virginia. as you were speaking there, brian, we actually got an update on the statewide vote. clinton has been playing from behind. the question has largely been about northern virginia, how much turnout, how much support she can get. it's now down to 25,000. hillary clinton's gap in virginia as i say this sentence is 25,000 votes. that just tightened significantly in the last few seconds so i'm finding this out with you. we just got more vote in in fairfax county. this is the mother lode in

northern virginia. you see a lead there for hillary clinton of about 90,000 votes. i believe, i'd have to go back and check, i believe there is still vote outstanding, not much, this is a county where president obama was re-elected four years ago by a margin of 109,000 votes. hillary clinton is getting the same level of support so she can probably squeeze, rough estimate, another 10, twepgt -- 20,000 out of fairfax county. looks like more vote just came in here. this one of all the northern virginia counties has the most still to come in. she could probably squeeze out between 10 and 20,000 there and also it looks like in richmond, the city of richmond, there's still maybe about 40% to come in there. hillary clinton could squeeze out. so the votes appear to be there, at least in theory, for hillary clinton to overcome a margin. now you see it's down to 21,000. the votes appear to be there in northern virginia and richmond. i can't really point to one red

county like these democratic counties, but scattered votes still coming in in the red parts of virginia. but the opportunity there for hillary clinton to make up the number in virginia, certainly exists. but we weren't even supposed to be talking about virginia this way at this hour. let's take a look right now in florida. so the margin now, look at this, it's sitting there at 138,000 votes right now. that's been pretty stubborn from the democrats standpoint. they have got a lot still to make up. you can see broward, we're still in the dark about how much is left. the turnout, the total turnout here in 2012 was 750. you add that together and you're pretty much at 750,000 right now. so i'm not sure how much the democrats can squeeze out of broward, out of palm beach, out of miami-dade. you're getting close to your 2012 levels. again, still looks like this might be in now, still looks like i think some republican vote to come in santa rosa here in the peninsula. that's a lot of ground for hillary clinton to make up here with what we're looking at. >> steve kornacki at the board

with virginia and florida. we have a photograph tweeted out on the account of ivanka trump. this is the experience of watching the returns at trump tower in midtown manhattan tonight before they go over to the new york hilton. nobody goes nowhere until we figure out just what it is we're marking this evening. but you see the assorted trumps and pences and pensive -- >> i desperately want to know what mike pence is looking at. i know what everybody else is looking at but mike pence seize something else. >> it is like the situation room when they got bin laden for an entirely different subject matter, but the concentration on people's faces. >> i see mike pence, he won both the senate race and presidential electoral votes in his state of indiana and this is going to be a competitive race for

president. he jumped on this horse when it didn't look too good. he's going to look like a smart paul. >> let's go to chris hayes tonight. >> rachel, we've seen throughout the campaign when trump's chances have increased, they have sent some panic through markets. right now as this night has developed in a highly uncertain fashion, global markets are roiling. we have ron insana. with dow futures trading down about 500 points, ron. can you give me the roundup of how global markets are moving as the entire world watches these returns come in? >> well, chris, this is going to be the fear of brexit part two as was discussed earlier in the program. a surprising result from tonight's vote would unwind the gains that we saw on wall street in just the last two days. the dow gained 400 points, rebounding after a nine-day loss, which was the longest loss the market had suffered since 1980. and this rebound on monday and

tuesday came after jim comey had backed away from the e-mail investigation. the market effectively today and yesterday pricing in a hillary clinton victory. a big donor that i talked to that works with hillary clinton thought this morning that she was going to win in a landslide. there is some confusion now, obviously, as to whether or not those internal polls that the clinton organization had were even remotely accurate or any polls for that matter, so you get this rebound effect. world markets will sell off. the post-brexit sell-off in london, for instance, was about a 5% to 7% two-day affair. we can expect the dollar to go down, the mexican peso will fall in value, the mexican stock market will fall in value since donald trump has targeted that country with respect to both building a wall and altering trade treaties. we have to watch china since he's spoken negatively about our relations with them so there will be worldwide repercussions in financial markets. and expect if mr. trump were declared the winner tonight that you could see a 3% to 5%

pullback in the next day or two. >> ron insana, from cnbc. the mexican peso is where money has flowed in and out of as global financial markets try to assess the future, that is down around 8.5% right now, so there is a lot of hot and panicky money in global markets watching this with bated breath. rachel, back to you. >> wow, dow futures down 500 points. that has been an unusual marker for the volatility sense and the sense of donald trump's prospects in this race. that's an exclamation point for us tonight. >> another break for us. we're back with our live coverage right after this.

9:46 p.m., no one has the advantage of information tonight, no one has an inside read, a private poll. we're all working out of the same books.

in some cases off the same rules and in some cases people are learning to their detriment old sets of rules. there's a word for what's happening, it's called a barn burner. and steve kornacki, i see him over at the board tinkering. i just saw mecklenburg county, north carolina. what are you doing in mecklenburg county? >> they're updating their votes every five or six seconds. let's take you through the math in carolina quick. what she's down right now is about 85, 87,000 votes in north carolina right now. where could hillary clinton make this up if she's going to win the state? there's three places you can look. one of them is mecklenburg. in 2012 the total number of votes cast out of mecklenburg county was 445,000. you add these together and you're a little more than 100,000 short of that. so she could gain if this pattern holds with 30,000 votes or so out of mecklenburg county. where else does she look? if you look in wake county, the sort of big votes that are up there, looks like the vote is in. the good news for her, if you go

next door, durham county, 145,000 votes were cast here four years ago. you can see a lot of votes still to come in and a huge clinton margin here, so there's an opportunity for her to pick up votes there. and also one more place you would look, let me make sure i get it. it's the dot, let me make sure i get it. this is where winston-salem is, and it looks like there's 100,000 votes outstanding there. those three pockets when you're looking at the total statewide gap she's facing, which sits right now at about 90,000 votes, those three pockets are enough. the problem, again, there's also red area to fill in that will eat into whatever hillary clinton gains there. >> steve kornacki, thank you. again, virginia right now, we've got about 80% of the vote in. it's almost the same in north carolina. about 79% of the vote in. in florida, that's where we've got 95% of the vote in. but all of those races still considered to be too close to call. interesting, georgia was an early closing tonight, but in

georgia, less than half of the vote is in. >> 45%. >> 45% of that vote is in. in new hampshire, even less. in new hampshire we've got less than a third of the vote in. in pennsylvania, we've got barely over a quarter of the vote in. so a number of these states, the too close to call is the headline here, but watching the proportion of that vote come in, it's really important. >> in pennsylvania, i just talked to governor rendell and i've been following the philadelphia political machine there. bob brady, the boss of the machine, told me he could bring in a 450,000 plurality of the city. he's getting 450 and 300,000 from the four suburban areas. it looks like they're going to sweep pennsylvania so the firewall is holding for clinton. through the old politics and machine politics and the suburban advantage she has among women especially. i think whatever else happens south of pennsylvania, pennsylvania is probably going to be the firewall that holds. >> right now pennsylvania -- even though there's only a quarter of the vote in, you're saying that in key areas they're hitting their targets. >> it's very professional in philadelphia. then every single voting

division. every committee man or woman is on top of it. this vote is known. >> they each have a drone assigned to them. >> no, they have $100. that's better than the drone. >> kasie hunt. >> pennsylvania, donald trump can only win this race if he wins >> th >> he can still win this race if he wins florida. inside the trump war room, they say he is visiting his war room, and their emotions are hinged on the precinct by precinct results. they were very pessimistic till now. >> i want to be the first person to bring this up, but in states like florida and a number of the other states that are too close to call, an automatic recount is triggered if it's less than half a percent. it's important to know that. in florida, if you don't get

within half a percent, you can't even offer to pay to have another recount. so the percentage, the percentage really, really matters. even after the decimal point. >> that automatically triggers ativan prescriptions. >> put it in the water. >> eugene's got a good idea. >> line three for gene. >> maybe some answers, maybe not, a last break. we'll be right back.

here's a change. we're back from the break. four split electoral votes. maine has moved from too early to too close. 19% of the vote in. crazier and crazier state politically, like so many states, there's a couple contained in one. steve kornacki, lurking around the board again, and now it's virginia. >> so new development to tell you about virginia. hillary clinton has taken the lead, a 6,000-vote lead, still votes coming in. if you're a clinton fan in virginia, you now have the lead. we keep talking about northern virginia. all that vote still not in. fairfax county, the turnout here back in 2012 was 525,000. so there's still room for hillary clinton to gain votes

there. also the city of richmond, about 75% of the vote is in. those are still democratic-rich areas. so hillary clinton's chances of hanging on, it's climbing to 6,000. the bad news if you're a clinton fan, look how late it is in the evening. and we're talking about now northern virginia may bail you out in virginia. this is a state with tim kaine on the ticket. we didn't think it would take this long to be calling. >> exactly. >> i was going to ask about loudoun county. there was a late trump event in leesburg, and they were wondering, too little, too late. >> yeah. this is the story of donald trump's performance here in virginia tonight. it's not really in this northern virginia area. this is louden right now, about a 22,000 vote lead, pretty much on course with what barack obama got four years ago. the story from donald trump, it's the rural areas, the small

red counties, big turnout, giant support. and we can show you this, 82% in the rural counties. but that's what you're looking at. >> i don't want this word excerpts to be part of the thing. >> south western virginia is its own thing. >> this is where we've seen the trump signs for weeks and week and weeks and all summer long. >> i, i feel like i was wrong. i mean, this is really a title race, and the clinton campaign projected a lot more confidence than has been reflected in the way the evening has gone down so far, and no matter what happens, trump had a lot more support and a lot more states among a lot more people than the polls detected. as of this morning. >> i'm told lawrence o'donnell has more from the insiders. >> we're here with steve schmid

and james carville. i have never seen you more worried about evening than were you worried about virginia. how are you feeling now? >> i feel much better. the party chair i've been contact with. we lost virginia, we'd probably lose. soy feel much, much better about virginia, but, you know, what chris said, i think all eyes are going to be on north carolina now. >> north carolina. >> yeah, for sure. and she's behind in north carolina. look, my prediction was 320 to 340 electoral votes for her. i was wrong on that. and you look at the rural vote that's coming in in florida. i don't think these things happen in isolation. so as we move into ohio, michigan. we're going to see this phenomenon play out, but the presidency's up for grabs, clearly this hour. >> that's what you keep saying in our ongoing conversation that the audience has not been a part

of, is that this doesn't happen in isolation. talk about michigan. >> i mean, if you have all this turnout in north florida. if you have all this turnout in rural virginia, all this turnout, it's going to bleed over into michigan. it's very hard for me to see a scenario. i hope i'm wrong. i desperately want to be wrong. i'm not in the business of being right here tonight, but it worries me about michigan. you know, we're getting to the point here, several past the 270. but we're getting to the point where some of them are getting cut off. i was more optimistic about florida, obviously, still a good chance that she'll be the next president. but i would say to democrats watching this, don't tune out yet. >> a chance that she'll be the next president? >> yeah, for sure there's a chance she'll be the next president, but it's a lot closer than anybody expected certainly in our line of work. >> that quote from steve schmid

will find a life of its own, the presidency is up for grabs. both mr. carville and mr. schmid. the american people have a funny way of making sure they get heard, and they are being heard tonight. the 10:00 hour is five seconds away. here we go. in gold, there they are. here are the closings. this hour, it is 10:00 p.m. in the state of iowa. our call for right now is too close to call. in the state of nevada, our call for this hour is too close to call. in the state of utah, and remember, favorite son in the race, three-way, too early to call. clinton, trump, macmullan. in the state of montana, the big