>>mtp daily starts now. >> nbc election headquarters in new york city. fresh off of 90 minutes of sleep for a couple of days. are you feeling a bit dazed? you are not alone. half the country is feeling dazed and confused. the other half is feeling dazed

and elated. even the rnc's internal models and had trump losing in the final stretch by some significant margin. let's comb through the shrapnel by political explosion. nbc news has he surpassed the electoral votes needed to be the president of the united states. they have one consolation prize at the moment. hillary clinton is leading in the popular vote. this is an unexpected battle ground.

he did something a lot of us thought wouldn't be done. trump does lead there. new hampshire remains too close to call. clinton holds a tiny lead. down the ballot, republicans control all the levers of power and retain the control of the house and senate. this just in. kelly ayott ece conceded to her challenger. they picked up two seats in illinois and new hampshire. shell shocked democrats continue

their work and hillary clinton called out to young women in the crowd. >> nothing has made me prouder than to be your champion. >> it's not often you see her show that vulnerability and urged the country to keep an occupy mind about opponents and they suggested it could cause the apocalypse. >> we must accept this result and look to the future. donald trump is going to be our president. we owe him an open mind and the chance to lead. our constitutional democracy enshrines the peaceful transfer of power. we don't just respect that, we cherish it. >> the president addressed the nation today from the white house. he began the dutiful work of passing the torch to trump.

we can work as hard as we can to make sure it is a successful transition for the president-elect. we are now all rooting for his success. >> that's it. president obama is rooting for the success of a political opponent who called his presidency an illegitimate sham and labeled him the founder of isis. what the heck happened? we will talk to our pollsters in a moment. the obama coalition was a democratic coalition. clearly it was not. other than a late surge in the sunbelt, this was basically john kerry's coalition. john kerry eeked out wins in places like wisconsin and pennsylvania and what pult trump over the top was overwhelming

support in rural america. the lack of turn out for democrats was big and that turn out of rural america for turn out was huge too. and 10 million short in 2008. that matters. take a look at wisconsin. romney lost to obama in wisconsin by nearly seven points. i am joined by the "wall street journal" polling duo. republican pollster of public opinion strategies and our data guru both at nbc and the "wall street journal." welcome. so the word is the pollsters got

it wrong. in many cases they were right. we watched a good lesson of how modest margins and how democrats dropped modestly and republicans gained within the president-elect gained enormous ground with white non-college so much that he tipped the scales and bingo. you have a tied election. trump is our new president. >> can you take our poll and match it almost identically with what we saw nationally?

can you say what was right and what was wrong? >> looking back at the polling results and of course we have the benit of having actual election results. maybe the white non-college educated cohort. there was an obama coalition, but mrs. clinton just didn't carry the voters. she got seven points less with millennials. she got eight points less with african-americans than president obama and the same with latinos. you add up the discrepancies, it can take a three-point lead to a tie race.

one of the numbers said they moved to trump by five points. >> in this respect a lot of pollsters and handy cappers and analysts and all of us took 08 and 12 and made an assumption that it was permanent and it was not unique to obama. the same mistake republicans made post reagan when they thought the reagan coalition was easily replicated and you have to have reagan on the ballot to replicate. >> that's a good question. i do think that the reason we thought maybe this was more lasting than it turned out to be was that the dem doctor graphic trends were such that whites were keeping the downward

trajectory. he is not just doing well in the suburbs. it favors a more diverse coalition you think to win. the other thing i say is they are put to win and it's remarkable. death by a thousand cuts. the margins are bumped up and i don't know how rep kabul this is either. one of the things we talked about was the remarkable stability of the race. obviously it was not stable or did this move late. how would you respond to that?

>> i don't mean to upset folks, but donald trump is president. how can you keep saying that you saw what was happening? in our polling, we were talking about the donald trump had this unique margin with white non-college. the millennials were hurting. he ran ten points better than romney. donald trump will lose white college women and we have that in double-digits and he lost them by five or six.

that difference means overall that he did just as well with romney with white women. i want to say again, these are not shocking things in our polling. these are not things we have not seen all year. we are watching as fred indicated. they are the core of the party and they moved even further to trump. larger than ronald reagan in 1984. they said hillary clinton will win the popular vote. her margin will get vigorous and we have six or eight million ballots left, most from the pacific northwest. she might win by one or two

points. in the midst of all of this, the national poll is going to win. she is. that's what our poll said and she is going to win the national vote from between a point or two points. who was the obama-trump voter? >> the obama-trump voter is someone -- there was an interesting exit poll question. 17% in one question said they wanted the next president to be more liberal on policies than barack obama. among that group, clinton won, but only 70-23. when you aggregate that, they were the change voters. maybe younger. people went to the polling booth

on tuesday voted for change. >> the final question. do we think college educated whites lied to the pollsters? >> i don't think that. i really don't. it is interesting his margin with college educated whites will be better than our polls show. if some of this is the turn out and some of them didn't turn out. we are doing it in public for millions to watch. we want to do this as transparent as possible. thank you very much. donald trump led the gop wave last night so what's next for the democrats? who is in charge of the party now. a look at what went wrong for them. how the party needs to move forward. how rural america came out like never before. stay tuned.

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>> what he pulled off is he heard the voices out there that others were not hearing and he earned a mandate. >> speaker of the house earlier today talking about how president-elect trump will have a unified republican government. the control of the house of representatives will remain in republican hands. here's where the house stands right now. that looks like five uncounted seats. go, california, we will get them. the republicans will retain control of the senate. the republicans hold 51 seats. it could grow by one. louisiana is the race for the republican-held seat that will go to the run off.

it is republican and sometimes other parties. republican john kennedy and democrat foster campbell. by the way, this could be oddly erased. this could be kind of a mess down there. only the way louisiana does races down there. got love him. democrats managed to pick up two seats. the congresswoman who defeated the incumbent and as we just mentioned, senator kelly ayotte just conceded. one race that is too close to call, the challenger that is separated by a few thousand votes.

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>> welcome back. donald trump is riding a republican wave into the white house or did those guys ride a trump wave into reelection? the gop will maintain control of the house and the senate. not all republicanse trump fans and some withdraw their support in the last weeks of the campaign. joining me now is one of those republicans. this congresswoman is the lone woman in the texas congressional delegation. welcome back to the show. >> thank you. >> well, donald trump is the president-elect. you did not end up supporting him. what did you do at the ballot box? >> i voted a straight republican ticket at the ballot box. >> what turned you on trump?

you personally seemed uncomfortable for a while. >> i was. i was uncomfortable when asked to view the video and heard what he had to say. that was harmful, i thought to women and that position. i said i thought he should step down. that was a strong position. he didn't step down and voted for him along with other republicans. i watched what was happening and said at some point you have to say what do i believe in? what are the most important things and republicans represent what i think are most important. >> that's an interesting change. if you feel so strongly that you wanted him to step down and then well, all right, i will forgive this behavior because he might support the house agenda here and might do this. was that easy? >> i don't support that behavior

and that was a strong statement, but he supports the republicans and what we stand for. that is extremely important. and then today if you watched what happened i watched it until 3:00. he not only won as president, he brought us along with him. the senators and the house. we thought for sure we are losing the senate. we thought we were going to have a hard time in the house. he was so strong that he brought us together. we have to be together and i will be there. >> who should drive this agenda. there was a time when i think the house republicans thought in a trump presidency they would drive the agenda. you just mentioned and i'm with you, this feels like trump brought a lot of republicans across the finish line. is this his agenda and you guys should come along?

>> people believed in his agenda. i said let me tell you something. it's a different day. we need to go in the white house with the president and listen to what people said and make it true. we need to work and you said this is important to you. we are going to pass it and make it law. i think that is what we have to do in support of him. >> it's interesting to hear you react that way. what do you think republicans in washington did that created the conditions to nominate trump? >> i don't know that it works that way. we didn't get our work done and had continuing resolutions. i can defend that. i have been in congress for 20 years, but i can say i saw that

disappointment that turned to anger. donald trump understood that. when they talk about protecting our land and building our military and fixing the infrastructure and they are saying that's their agenda. i think that is our responsibility. >> congratulations on your reelection. >> the democratic party is the onehat appears to be fracturing and they are moving through the stages of grief. shock set in early last night and came disbelief and satness this morning. at some point democrats have big questions to ask themselves. what comes next? for all the talk about a divided party, what's going on with the

democrat who is may come out more fractured than united. the national reporter, maria is the president and republican strategist and cnbc contributor. welcome all. you covered bernie sanders and i say it because it's interesting to look and i think there is a lot of sanders supporters saying told you so when it comes to she couldn't run against trump on that sanders could have. that was where the debate begins? >> progressive democrats are feeling as though they put up bernie sanders, he would make the case for trade and made it to working class rights a& that

was the normal base. it's great to say bernie could have beat trump, but he couldn't beat hillary. how could he beat trump? the democratic party is going to have to figure out how he beat her from coming from the left. he beat her from talking about the issues and that is problematic and democrats will have to figure out what it means. >> what is the leader in the party? they will have a come to jesus moment and figure out how we will set an agenda that is complimentary and work together.

the message sent last night was that the american people are angry and upset and want change and brought in a candidate that i was hearing this conversation. and when can they have. what would you say is the next stage and how you avoid it. it took republicans a lo long time and if trump is the answer, not everyone is happy about that. >> democrats could take a lesson from republicans in what is not to do. i don't think we did as good of a job in running a cohesive message in both chambers and really putting president obama on his heels.

>> that is sort of what he was saying. >> potentially. who knows. he seems to have transcended the movement. they have more raw power can donald trump work with paul ryan and mitch mcconnell and build a coalition that stays united and gives tax reform and looks at obamacare and how to replace it. if they can get the wins in the first three or four months. if the first six months, it will be a new day in the republican party. >> how do democrats regroup? >> i think democrats regroup by trying to figure out how to harness the anxiety and the anger that fuelled bernie sanders and figure out how the people can support policies that don't look like donald trump's policies.

obviously donald trump is talking about deporting millions of people and solving the problems by saying i will redo the trade deals and talking about -- after talking to a lot of bernie and trump supporters, people would be angry, but take it out on different people. that's what democrats have to figure out. >> before barack obama there was almost a conversation in the democratic party about how they are going to fix the white guy problem? barack obama creates a coalition that he ends up doing better. he looked at the state. that's one. is there too much that they alienated the white guy? i don't know. a lot of folks are asking themselves is it this part of repudiation

repudiation. is the demographics changing so quickly that we are not ready? i can share with you. the fact that a lot of policies that donald trump ran on. the republican party said look, this is not a -- we had 500,000 young people who are on a federal registry. people and their families are scared to death, is he going to practice what he preached? we don't know. it's up to the republican leadership to say we have to have this conversation to make sure how we proceed. >> let me take issue with the fact that you said this might be because barack obama is black. this is because hillary clinton ran a bad campaign. she didn't have a message. she didn't inspire younger voters and didn't inspire minority voters. >> that's not the case. >> she didn't like having a black period.

>> that is plain to see when he talked about mexicans. >> they are so much stronger than the democratic party. donald trump was not perfect and did not conduct himself perfectly. >> when you start a campaign and you start saying that a whole demographic of americans and perhaps their loved ones are rapists, you can only deteriorate from there. >> i am not defending his comments. i criticized them many times. >> when you scream build the wall and have children in their home, at our organization, we have parents who are worried because their kids are coming home crying. >> donald trump did better with latinos than mitt romney. >> in the trenches, trump supporters and not all of them by far, but some of them told me to my face that they thought african-americans didn't like to work and my parents did didn't go to college. >> was he wrong?

>> we should not ignore that. >> i'm saying that we shouldn't ignore that. there are legitimate things that are going on, but we can't deny race played a huge role in this. >> a lot of people trump alienated. he has to figure out thou address this as president-elect. what would you tell him to do. >> he passed his first test by giving a magnanimous speech. >> when you win, that's easy. >> he will have a lot of arrows thrown at him. even when you win relatively big, you still have to take a lot of crap. he is going to have to learn how to deal with all the arrows coming in and not get under his skin. he is going to have to grow in office. lots of people have done it. we will see how it works out. i'm hopeful it will work out well for my party.

>> for america. >> i will pause it there. >> donald trump exceeded expectations in key states. look how he took downhillry clinton's big blue fire wall.

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>> that was when we were not sure we were going to have a winner for a while. that was more than cut in half by the time trump was declared the president-elect. the dow got back on track and ended the day up over 250 points. more than a 1,000 point swing if you count the futures in less than 24 hours. still for the rest of the day's financial headlines that is all unpacked by the election. >> thank, chuck. general motors is not one of today's winners. the company is suspending shifts at two factories early next year. resulting in 2,000 layoffs. the sales beat estimates and that stock is up sharply. myelin, the maker of the epipen

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>> one of the biggest reasons donald trump shocked forecasters is he recovery performed in rural america. take a look. 71% of rural voters in pennsylvania voted for trump and 26% for clinton. a 45-point win for trump. compare that to 2012 with 59% of rural voters went for romney and 40% went for obama. take a look at how trump did with michigan. according to exits, trump trounced white voters in michigan. here's more that can speak to the culture gap.

donald trump won 76% of counties with a cracker barrel restaurant. that divide has grown sharply in 1992. the gap between the counties was 19%. last night it was 54%. joined now is jenna johnson. here with me is jd vance. that part of union labor. big democrat and jack murtha. that is what a southwestern pennsylvania democrat was. that was old fashioned blue territory. what did you see? >> exactly. i spent the day going around to polling places and a popular

trump hang out. donald trump won them over. a lot of them had been jumping on the republican wagon for a while. trump's message just really resonated with them when you talked about jobs and trade. a cult following among the junkies and trying to figure out what we miss. what's going on there.

i find it interesting, the rural vote first started going republican on culture issues. over the last couple of cycles, they haven't been as republican and it could be they didn't like the economic argument and here came a republican with an economic argument to talk about it. >> that's right. and nine of them were arguing for 20 years. >> we will cut entitlements and do this and free trade here and the economy is just going to grow. >> absolutely. the guy who said no, no, no to all of it was donald trump. he inspired so much confidence and passion and they led to the nomination and the presidency. >> you didn't think he would win the presidency? >> no. the turn out numbers showed why i didn't think.

you are both right and wrong. if barack obama was on the ballot. jenna, it's obvious by the exit polls, you ran into obama trump voters. >> i ran into a couple of them who voted for obama the first time around in 2008. they believed in him then and liked his message and back then, obama was an inspirational person and offered a lot of hope. they signed up for it. they were not happy. they are comparing obama and they like something someone who gives them a big dream. even if it was a little bit pie in the sky.

a guy in the polling booth said -- and bringing back. they have been gone for so long. even if they were to come back. did she think they were stupid? they said hillary clinton and he wrote in his own name. he thought he could do better than earing of them. he threw up his hands. >> what are kind of error does trump have. even though a lot of folks voted

against hillary clinton, he is not an extraordinarily popular figure even among those who are most passionate about him. >> does he realize the industries are not coming back? >> maybe he will shake the place up. >> they will come back and he is not our savior. they are probably not coming back, but at least he recognizes the concerns exist and he is trying to shake-up the status quo. was the royal surge obviously coupled with a lethargic turn out. was it pro trump or anti-hillary. >> with donald trump super fans and they still had a stronger hate for hillary than a love for trump.

>> do you buy that? i heard a lot of i just don't trust hillary and don't want her to be president. >> janet johnson was terrific writing and reporting all year on the campaign trail for "the washington post." thank you for coming in. >> thank you. >> still ahead, i'm obsessed. really obsessed with the many things that many of us miss this election season. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.

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>> boy, am i obsessed today at the polls not showing donald trump's numbers moving at all. we were convinced the cities would innokilate clinton elsewhere. i am obsessed with the polls that got it wrong. all of them. i am obsessed with the exit polls that at least got it too early to show that looked like we got it wrong and hillary clinton said they would ignore donald trump when he said he would expand the map. we would believe the majority would ensure and we didn't realize it was just that. i'm obsessed with the latino vote that we talked endlessly about and that was noft enough. the fact that the trump won a lower percentage and still won.

i'm obsessed with how we couldn't talk with how successful the democratic national convention was. i'm obsessed with the divided parties that they don't don't win national elections. i'm obsessed how the rural fly over blue collar america gave a collective one-finger salute to the media, business and political leadership. i'm obsessed with how a small band of partisans delegitimized the mainstream press, and we just sat there and let it happen. and i'm obsessed with how profoundly, historically epically wrong we got this election. it's not a good day. from the day he rode down the escalator and called mexicans rapists and smashed down the big blue wall and swept his way into the white house, we have a lot to answer for. but the leaders have a lot of institutions, including both political parties were put on notice. here is the good news. you the people, you spoke, and it's now all of our jobs to listen.

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time now for the lid. what happens now? 72 days until the inauguration, and there are a dizzying array of story lines. scrolling next to me are a few of the topics we're going to be keeping an eye on. 54 to be exact, ranging from how will democrats pick up the pieces to trump'solicy anda there is a lot going on there, including the future of nato. the point is we got a ton to dig through. panelists back. try a little lightning round here. maria teresa and sarah. empty your notebooks. you tell me. besides the big story of this election, what was the most shocking thing to you last night? >> the most shocking thing to me last night was probably as a reporter feeling like did we do enough to really take the pulse of america? i spent a lot of time in rural pennsylvania. but i think going forward, we have to really go out and go into those areas. because a lot of the media is east coast slant in some ways,

maybe. at least that's what i'm thinking. that's the thing i want to do. i want to go out in the middle of the country and talk to people. >> maria? >> we have to come and give people the space to have honest and frank conversations of where they are and why they feel so insecure and how do we bring together. because we are an increasingly changing demographic. this is generation z, the one that cast their vote for the first year. it's the last white majority. how do we prepare ourselves for the generations to come and making sure we're an inclusive america. >> stepping back from all the noise in the conversation and the events, this is the change election with the best example of an outsider candidate you could have, and the best example of an insider candidate you could have. and yet we all said the insider was going to win. and just common sense should have told us all this would be a really close race. >> why do we think donald trump was more teflon? what is it -- what is it that he -- my theory is that he -- he doesn't -- he doesn't care when he gets criticized.

and we've not had that from a politician. when i say that, he does care. >> at 3:00 in the morning when he is twittering. >> he does care personally but he doesn't care collectively. >> it's part of his whole shtick. and it's part of what his most ardent supporters find so endearing about him. he takes it -- he can say anything, do anything and bounce back. and i think part of the way that he is and conducts himself is part of what appeals to people is that he always rises up and survives. >> but i also look at the reality tv president part. i think he is entertaining. and that's something that we also have to think. he is able to laugh at himself. he is able to say oh, yeah, i was just kidding than wall or just kidding about this. i think there's that point to. >> matt bye had this great analogy there is two movie tickets. this movie that you've seen a million times, you can't stand it and you know exactly how it ends. then there is this ticket,

you've never seen the movie. everybody told you it's the worst movie in the world, but you didn't see it. >> it's almost like a car wreck that we want to be a part of. i think we have to figure out -- there is a lot of vulnerable communities now. how do we make sure he has an inclusive message for all americans. >> all right. i got to stop there all righty. we're digging out. this is just beginning. what an election. yamiche, maria, sarah, we'll be right back. ♪

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we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily" back down in washington. for now hardball starts right now. >> brave new world. let's play "hardball." >> good evening. i'm kris matthews up in new york. well, the election is over, of course, and donald trump will be the next president of the united states. proving nearly all the polls wrong, trump wracked up victories in states like pennsylvania, wisconsin, ohio, and florida. but trump is on track to become short of a popular vote victory by a fraction of a percentage point. meanwhile, from half the country, shock and despair at the reality that is now playing out. today president obama promised a gracious transfer of power to the man who once questioned his