death. and six months since a gunman killed 49 it into a memorial. >> "morning joe" starts right now. ♪ >> good morning. it is monday. for some of us, a snowy monday. december 12th. welcome to "morning joe." we're getting close to christmas. with us on set, we have former ted cruz campaign communications director and now an msnbc political contributor rick tyler. "the new york times" reporter jeremy peters. msnbc political analyst and professor at the university of michigan school of public policy, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. >> harold and i are -- >> matchy, matchy. >> it's sort of a uva thing.

>> campus look going. >> something like that. >> and in washington, columnist and associate editor of "the washington post" david ignatius. very elegant. a lot going on today. >> we're sorry to bring you in on a day where there's absolutely nothing to talk about in your realm. i'm looking right now. this front page article -- actually, this is a good look at what's going on this weekend. the "times" comes out with a story. "the washington post" responds as well. fascinating hearings on whether the russians were trying to influence this election. as the "times" says, we'll get to this in a second, right now a conflict between the cia's conclusions and also with the fbi's conclusions and so just pretty remarkable what's going on in our intel communities and then the president-elect and what he is saying about the cia.

i think it is another example f of -- >> nbc news learned this weekend that exxon mobile ceo rex tillerson is expected to be nominated as the next secretary of state. now, we report that trump's top aides remain concerned with tillerson's close ties with russian president vladimir putin. and some top aides recommend the announcement be delayed for several weeks to gauge reaction on capitol hill. tillerson has spent his entire career at exxon and his rise was marked by ambitious projects with russia. trump tweeted over the weekend whether i choose him or not for state, rex tillerson, the chairman and ceo of exxon mobil is a world class player and deal maker. stay tuned. he said this in his interview on "fox news sunday." >> why does a business executive make sense as chief diplomat?

>> he's a world-class player. he's in charge of the largest company in the world. he's in charge of an oil company that is pretty much double the size of his next nearest competitor. a company that's been unbelievably managed. and to me a great advantage is he knows many of the players. he knows them well. he does massive deals with russia. he does massive deals for the company. not himself. >> we're aware this is trump's top pick. you have spoken with rex tillerson. what did you think? >> the thing is that donald trump has been very impressed with a lot of people that have gone through. david petraeus. extraordinarily impressed. mitt romney. he got along with him very well. at different times he was ready to go with those two gentlemen. i think here what you hear not

only from donald trump and also donald trump's aides, is that they believe this guy is in a league of his own. he's been on the world stage for 15, 20 years. he's run one of the top companies on the planet. the big knock this weekend on twitter has been that he's vladimir putin's stooge. as i pointed out last night, he was recommended -- condy rice is not called donald trump yet. condy rice called donald trump to say this is your man at state. bob gates also reportedly recommended rex tillerson. rex tillerson has been a close friend with jim baker. why do i bring all of this up? just to tell you it's going to be very hard for marco rubio who came out against him and very hard for john mccain and very hard for lindsey graham to paint

rex tillerson as some sort of putin stooge when you have condy rice and james baker and possibly even bob gates saying we know this guy. we like this guy. we think he'll be a very, very effective secretary of state. >> not only is it going to be hard for him to paint him as such, donald trump doesn't care. i had a conversation with a senior trump aide last night about the backlash and whether or not this is weighing on donald trump and affecting his decision making process. pretty much what i got back didn't surprise me at all. that was we are not going to let john mccain and marco rubio tell us who we can have in our administration. >> can you imagine a committee hearing, confirmation hearing where bob gates, james baker, and condy rice come before the committee saying this person is qualified to be the next secretary of state? two, some have asked you can't discern what president-elect trump is looking for in a

secretary of state. i think we're beginning to see he wants a deal maker. he wants someone who can travel the world and be respected without the title. tillerson obviously brings that in many ways to this job. finally, to jeremy's point, i don't think -- this doesn't bother him much. he wants someone he feels comfortable with you have said before and others on the show that someone he feels he can work with and someone he's confident in and secure with and it looks as if rex tillerson is measuring up to all of the standards that have been laid out. >> harold is right. he wants somebody that he's comfortable with personally. he's very comfortable with rex tillerson and somebody that knows the world without the title. >> the title not bringing more prestige. >> someone that can play on the big stage. >> i think that it may be but a subplot now with everyone talking about vladimir putin, i

think the bigger challenge for rex tillerson if there is a challenge at all moving forward if he is appointed midweek, which our sources say is likely, the bigger problem may actually be israel and that's what the trump transition team is going to have to deal with because if you could pick somebody to reverse the damage of the past eight years with america's relationships with the gulf states and sunni arab nations across the middle east, it would be hard to find somebody that could do that better than rex tillerson because he's been doing business with these people and making lots of money for everybody for 15 or 20 years. but as close as he is to those sunni arab nations, that also is a blind spot regarding israel because, of course, he hasn't done business with israel because there's no oil in

israel. >> the gulf arabs love the idea of tillerson as secretary of state. he is known. he's been doing deals in saudi arabia and uae for many years. they regard him as a friend. i do think that that makes it complicated for him as secretary of state to do what's in recent years been a central part of that job, which is to work the israeli palestinian negotiating issue. the president-elect has said he wants to do that through the white house. that he's personally interested. i think that's a complicated issue. in this pick, i see, joe, one interesting consistent theme. trump likes a tough guy. this is the first business person we've had as secretary of state in generations. typically we have lawyers or we have academics in that role. we have not had business people going back, i think, to the time

of -- it does mark something of a break. trump, in all of these key decisions, has got tough guys, proven deal makers, clearly he wants a transactional presidency. >> you know, david, it reminds me, i'm sure you read the book on eisenhower. it was the first of its kind to really dig into eisenhower's thought process being president of the united states. eisenhower shows people he didn't know for top positions and didn't want a lot of friends close by in the top positions like state and defense. but said he wanted people in eisenhower's words "that couldn't afford to work for me." it looks like trump by getting

all of these people from goldman and exxon mobil and other corporations may be doing the same thing here. >> you know, he's taking people who don't need the jobs and in that sense are attractive. you look at the lineup, mattis, general kelly at dhs and now tillerson, these are tough guys. if you want to look at the oil business, tillerson is famous for his i.q. exxon is a smart, well run company. he's not the guy that goes out and makes deals and pats people on the back which is part of the oil business. i think that side of diplomacy he's going to have to start from a low base. >> how concerned are you, rick, with the putin side of this story, which really drove everything throughout the weekend? is this a serious concern for confirmation? >> i don't think so. it will come out in

confirmation. two objections one he worked in the oil business, which i don't hold against him, and george schultz came to the secretary of state job although he worked in government before and we've had politicians, john kerry, we've had academics, condoleezza rice, and we've had generals, general colin powell, all in this position. never tried a businessman. somehow he can't do it but he's clearly qualified to do it. he's on any level pretty smart, very impressive. the other thing is he speaks trump's language, right? they're business guys. they connect. >> criticism from marco rubio and john mccain. rubio tweeted being a friend of vladimir is not an attribute i'm hoping for secretary of state.

>> vladimir putin is a thug and a murderer and i believe the relationship between mr. tillerson and vladimir putin needs to be examined. >> it's a matter of concern to me that he has such a close personal relationship with vladimir putin and obviously they've done enormous deals together. that would color his approach to vladimir putin and the russian threat. that's a matter of concern. we'll give him his chance. that's what the confirmation process and advise and consent is all about. >> it's a matter of concern. now, i was thinking, okay, he's going to enjoy this as much as he enjoyed sticking a sharp stick at barack obama and now going to do it with trump. this is obviously a legitimate concern. i think on "face the nation" he is exactly right. this is an obvious concern. they're going to look at it. advise and consent. again, if you have condy or jim baker or other people lined up behind him, again, i think there's going to be less of a

concern. >> i think this is a very surface argument because we don't know more. i think if you -- i listened to my father speaking at the nobel ceremonies over the weekend and henry kissinger and my brother, ian, they all talk about the relationship with russia. they're russian experts. they're not ramarco rubio. >> that's condoleezza rice. top russian expert. >> when you look at the relationship with russia, we have to see exactly what they mean. what's the next step and the third. what's the whole policy toward russia? i don't want to say a warmth but a relationship as opposed to no relationship isn't the answered of the world. it's what's the strategic framework of that relationship? what are perimeters going to be? >> maybe i'm not supposed to admit this on tv, if i'm the chairman and ceo of exxonmobil,

and i can get into russia, i'm going to pat somebody on the back. he got one of the biggest oil finds in russia. he took russia to the bank. he got a much, much better deal. such a great deal russia wanted to cancel it on him because he got the better of them. so it's the same thing with what he's doing in the middle east. it's not personal that he went to all of these sunni arab nations to get money. it was about getting oil and getting money and in growing the company. the question is, of course, can he switch hats as secretary of state and the answer is yes. i can tell you somebody close to rex tillerson told him everything that you've done your entire life has been to prepare for this moment. what you've done before doesn't matter. this is what matters. your service to your country. i don't think tillerson is sitting there, going, what favors can i do for vladimir putin? >> one other thing the president-elect has said is that he's looking for people who have

achieved success. i think it's broadly been said this morning in their own sphere and space and then are able to take those skill sets and translate and transfer them to representing the country so if indeed he represented shareholders extraordinarily well, which he has, can he take that trait and skill set and do the same for the overall country. president-elect has said to rick's point those are the kinds of people he's looking for. i think some democratic friends may find objection to him working in the energy industry. i don't think that should be held against anyone. it was his job and he did it extraordinarily well. >> a big issue is going to be who is his number two. people have been floating john bolton around. he's not a number two for rex tillerson. >> a bizarre jochoice. >> that would face revolt on the hill. >> a lot of people have been pushing john bolton hard. he would be a train wreck in the position as number two. you need somebody low key and

quiet. and while if rex tillerson is secretary of state, he's out of the country for two-thirds of the year, there's somebody that actually knows how to run the agency that's not an ideologue but basically keeps their head down and protects the secretary, protects the administration. >> and yet we're watching this whole process play out in its usual theatrical way. you had john bolton going on tv twice first talking about this false flag theory of what really happened with the intelligence briefings and then he went on fox later and had to backtrack. and so trump isn't going to make this decision public on who he's picking as secretary of state probably until the middle of the week. you're hearing the same thing i'm hearing. why is he dragging this out? they'll have carly fiorina in today. there's going to be this speculation. is she being considered for secretary of state. she's not really. >> i was told he's still in vetting. >> yes. they are still vetting. the thing is, again, if you had asked him the morning after he interviewed petraeus if petraeus was his secretary of state, he

would have said, yeah, probably so. they vetted him. two or three days later there was just too much. they couldn't go with him. the same thing with mitt romney. the morning after the dinner. classified as a grand slam. but somebody and all i'll say is somebody in the bush administration of all administrations, said you need to check out this tillerson guy. >> the backlash to romney also surprised trump i'm told. on the right when it became more than just the typical reactionary talk radio types who said maybe you should pick somebody who didn't go after you so aggressively. >> it was literally everybody around him. everybody around him. >> it's a process. before we go to break on a completely different note, you know the conversation we had last week about life expectancy diminishing and our kids not doing as well and the health of our country. so pepsi is struggling right now dealing with trying to go

healthy. they're just finding that people even though they say want to go healthy continue to eat salt, fat and sugar, and they want their chips including new frozen cheese sticks resembling cheetos. top and go doritos. >> i had a fried turkey for thanksgiving. i know david ignatius did too. we had a fried turkey. and then around it was the mac n cheetos. >> with the beer can. >> i know your dinner guests were just as thrilled with mine when i brought it out. >> just throwing that turkey in the big steel drum with all of the fat is fantastic. >> they're trying to make good juices but people want their cheetos. and this is something that is an actual real issue. i think these foods are addictive is why our country is

sick. >> the cia's allegations that russian hackers sought to tilt the election in donald trump's favor but "the new york times" as we said at the top and "the washington post" are reporting that assessment differs from the fbi's. >> we're going to talk to former cia director michael hayden about this. congressman peter king and "the new york times" reporter david sanger. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. look at this... a silicon valley server farm.

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can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's over 6 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. >> you are getting the presidential daily brief only once a week. >> well, i get it when i need it. first of all, these are very good people that are giving me the briefings. i said if something should change from this point, immediately call me. i'm available on one minute's notice. i don't have to be told -- i'm a smart person. i don't have to be told the same

thing and the same words every single day for the next eight years. could be eight years. eight years. i don't need that. i do say if something should change, let us know. in the meantime, my generals are great. they are being briefed. mike pence is being briefed, who is by the way one of my very good decisions. he's terrific. they're being briefed. and i'm being briefed also. but if they're going to come in and tell me the exact same thing they told me, it doesn't change necessarily. there will be times where it might change. there will be some very fluid situations. but i don't need to be cotold t same thing every morning, nothing has changed. let's go over it again. i don't need that. >> he's saying they are belaboring the point with him. david ignatius, donald trump's complaint and i have actually been asked what are these reports about him not taking the

briefing, is that the briefings are for the most part day in and day out about the same. he's told them that if things change as we heard on fox, if things change and something i need to know, i'm available on a minute's notice. does that cause you concern? >> it does in the sense that it is slighting reference to the u.s. intelligence committee working hard in dangerous circumstances 24/7 to see what's going on in the world, even if that means mr. president there is no change in this crisis situation we've been monitoring. there would have been different ways to say that that would have conveyed less contempt for the process. trump thinks he knows more than -- >> what is your recommendation? if there aren't great changes let's say from monday to tuesday, what's your recommendation not just for

donald trump but for any president in transition? should they take it every day? >> for years intelligence analysts have been thinking how can we make the daily briefing they give the president more interesting and more dynamic and more of the facts the president needs to make decisions? they struggle with that. obviously with this president they need to struggle more. many presidents have said i want oral briefing so i can ask the questions that matter to me. you don't tell me what you think i need to know. i'll ask you what i think is crucial to policy. they're obviously going to have to think about that. the problem right now is that these comments about not being briefed come as you couldn't invent this in a spy novel. the cia said russia was running a covert action to destabilize our political system and in this latest set of reports to elect donald trump and donald trump is saying what does the cia know? they gave you wmd. sneer toward the cia and its

analysts. that's a problem. that's something the president really needs to think carefully about. >> well, let's turn now to the cia's assessment that russian hackers sought to help tilt the election in president-elect donald trump's favor. a congressional official with knowledge of the issue tells nbc news that the cia has concluded that russia mounted a covert, intelligence operation to help trump defeat hillary clinton. according to the official, director of national intelligence james clapper, briefed senators on the matter during a closed door meeting last week. a "washington post" report talked about the divisions between intelligence agencies on the matter. the post says that while the cia was direct involved and unqualified about russia's intentions to help trump in their briefing to lawmakers, the fbi was fuzzy and ambiguous in

its presentation of the facts. the paper also says that the fbi is not certain that russia's interference in the election was meant to alter the results adding that the competing messages, according to officials, reflect cultural differences between the two agencies. those officials elaborate that the fbi wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something beyond all reasonable doubt. while the cia is more comfortable drawing inferences from behavior. meanwhile, "the new york times" also report that the fbi and cia were split over the hackers attempt to break into the republican national committee systems. according to the "times," the cia along with nsa argued that they were successful while the fbi argued that they were not. >> okay. so this is very important. a lot of reporting this week blurred over distinctions this week and there were two main stories as it pertained to intel

agencies. one had to do with whether the russians were hacking to impact the election. cia says they were. the fbi says they don't have the facts to come to that conclusion that they're not comfortable saying that they were. on the issue of the rnc being hacked, the cia says that they believe they were. the fbi says they were not. they don't have the evidence that they were. and the rnc says that there's absolutely no evidence they were hacked. so you have these two big stories this weekend split right down the middle. it's fascinating cia on one side and this sounds like water boarding days. the cia on one side. the fbi on the other side. and what's so fascinating is the roles are opposite of where they were with water boarding and suddenly the cia is the democrats best friend and the only agency to trust and suddenly republicans are embracing the fbi's conclusions.

>> first of all, the cia didn't say someone at the cia said and we don't know who that is because that was an unnamed source. i think it's perfectly understandable. they have two different missions. you and i can look at the evidence the cia got and conclude russians were hacking into the american electoral process and be concerned about that. the fbi wants to know definitive proof. that's the culture. so what they have is a program, a malware, used to hack into dnc and typically that's used by russian hackers. that's what they have. so the cia can say this is what the russians always use. therefore it's russians. they were clearly interfering with the election. the fbi wants to know who did it and have proof and able to go to a court of law and prove it. they don't have that. >> david, fascinating. absolutely fascinating interagency dispute here between

the fbi and the cia. what do you know? >> well, first, these two cultures historically have had trouble mixing. one of the problems with 9/11 and connecting the dots was cia and fbi misunderstanding. we start with that background. what we know is -- i cite our director of national intelligence secretary of homeland security on october 7. we know russians hack these democratic political accounts. what we didn't have at that time was a motive. we had a very strong statement from the top of our government. we now know there was conversation with members of congress at that time about what to do about this. we had a partisan split. mitch mcconnell didn't think that taking action made sense back then. disagreement. we had a president who was very

reluctant to push this hard. i wrote a story about his use of a secret hotline channel to warn the russians about the consequences of this hacking right before the election. terribly afraid of escalation. so we're now at the point where we're really going to establish the facts of who did what and what the motivation was. that's the hardest thing in intelligence. >> trump's team quickly challenged the cia's findings releasing a statement on friday that read in part that the report came from "the same people that said saddam hussein had weapons of mass destruction." when asked about that statement, senator john mccain said the one thing i don't know is comment on mr. trump's comments because tomorrow he'll say something very different. but over the weekend trump and his team stayed steady with their assessment of the cia's reported assessment. >> do you think that the cia is trying to overturn the results? >> no, i don't think -- >> to weaken new office. >> if you look at the story and

look at what they said, there's great confusion. nobody really knows. hacking is very interesting. once they hack, if you don't catch them in the act, you're not going to catch them. they have no idea if it's russia or china or somebody sitting in a bed some place. >> why would the cia put out a story that russians wanted you to win. >> i'm not sure they put it out. i think the democrats are putting it out because they suffered one of the greatest defeat in the history of politics in this country. if you read the various stories, there's a dispute and certain groups don't necessarily agree. personally, it could be russia. i don't really think it is. who knows. i don't know either. they don't know, and i don't know. >> someone hacked. we don't like that. i don't like it. no one wants it. we want to protect american interests. it's america first. i don't want dnc hacked. i don't want anybody hacked. i don't know who did the

hacking. that's my point. >> you dispute 17 intdifferent intelligence agencies that have assessed that russia agents were behind this? you dispute this? >> chuck, this is insane in the same article about those 17 agencies says the report was inconclusive. you're forgetting the most important piece. >> david ignatius, donald trump says we don't know. we're all talking around the table that he's actually dropped the 400-pound guy living in his mother's basement in new jersey. said it could have been him. >> cleaned it up a little. >> we told you that he was going to make the turn to being more presidential. there it is. >> there you have it. >> thank you for watching "morning joe." we'll see you tomorrow. david, actually, don't the agencies know or don't they have a pretty good idea that it's not

some guy from new jersey? >> it is said that they have evidence about the cut outs that russians used to transmit the hacked information to the publication form that it took through wikileaks in some instances and other groups in others. they don't want to surface that information because that is methods. the two points i would make, first, donald trump is about to become president of the united states. the president has a unique relationship with the cia. the cia is the president's arm for secret intelligence and also for secret deniable covert action. it's one of the most important tools the president has. running against the cia isn't a wise thing for a president to do. >> that's not a wise thing to do. >> second point, joe, this really is going to fall on mike pompeo.

a conservative who donald trump appointed as his next cia chief. he has to get the confidence of that workforce that they are not working against the new president of the united states. >> this reminds me so much of an op-ed that you wrote eight years. you had said when barack obama went to the cia and said some of the things that he said it was like a car bomb had gone off in the parking lot. so now you have the cia. they must be thinking, my god, are we now going to deal with another president just like barack obama that's coming in hostile to us? if i were a president to be, the last agency i would tweak would be the cia. >> you're comparison to that obama period is correct. i would note that obama chose leon panetta as a cia director. criticism the guy is too political. he's come from congress. it turned out he was what the agency needed. he had their back. he fought their fights against

members of the administration, against members of congress. and that was part of his success. pompeo gets good reviews out at cia. i was just out there at an event on friday. i heard a lot of people saying good things about him. he's in the middle of something we need to take very seriously. a president at war with his intelligence service, that's not a good situation. >> that's got to stop. it's got to stop immediately. it's bad for the president. it is bad for the agency. especially in 2017 you talk about the tip of the spear, the cia is the tip of the spear. it is the cia that is basically on the forefront and putting their lives on the line. that's the last agency you cross when you're an incoming president of the united states. >> i think in a lot of ways, joe, we're watching the presidency and our notions of a

change before our very eyes. donald trump is a guy that is going around the country holding these campaign style rallies picking fights with people on twitter and delegating with these great responsibilities to people like mike pence and his generals as he said in terms of getting these daily briefings. donald trump is not going to be a conventional president. i think we need to change what our conceptions of the office are because of who is going to be in it. >> there are a lot of people that said reagan was more detached than many americans would think. the difference with reagan is he had james baker. he had a group of people around him. if something had happened over the weekend in december of 1980 where ronald reagan had said something or confronted the cia, it would have been cleaned up four hours later by james baker calling members of the press and leaking and then putting out a

clarifying statement. there's just not that infrastructure here. >> there is. it's emerging and we don't know about it. >> there's donald trump and there's nobody that -- >> he's not president yet. >> there's nobody in the james baker role. >> i think understand what jeremy is saying. we may differ or not differ. mika said her father and brother overseas this weekend in commenting on tillerson and russia. those are the norms in politics. you have the grandfathers and godfathers of the party in a foreign policy making those comments. we forget the core substance here. there's a question of whether or not a foreign nation interfered in our election system. our election system is indispensable to whom we are. regardless of your party, you should want an investigation to get to the bottom of it. for the president to dismiss it, combined with saying i'll take presidential briefings if and when they believe something has changed, that's like a code saying calling me when there's a big play in the game and i'm come out of the box.

the smart ones watch a game to understand changes in the game. we may see a change. i hope it changes back. the country elected him to be a full-time day-to-day president and not when he thinks it's appropriate to be president. >> we did this during the campaign. i know we have to go to break. today, monday, december 12th, 2016. i can tell you that monday, december 12th, 2018, there will still be investigations on russia. this is not going away. this will -- >> they don't want it to spiral out into a political witch-hunt. >> by attacking the cia and claiming that nothing happened and by claiming that it's a dude in jersey listing to bon jovi on his walkman, i'm saying that all that does is it makes sure that this is around for two more years.

republicans and democrats alike need to get to the bottom of it. they need to get to the bottom of it now and any republican that is standing in the way of this investigation is doing a disservice to not only their party but to their country. it's not going away. there's nothing that donald trump or mitch mcconnell or any republican can do about it. let's get to the bottom of it as fast as possible. >> so next hour we're going to speak with former cia director michael hayden. coming up this hour, a subcommittee in congress that is focused entirely on emerging threats and capabilities. we'll speak with the congressman who sits on that committee who is also a former team leader of s.e.a.l. team 6. we're back in just a moment. hi, we're the hulford quads.

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all right. it's 50 past the hour. joining us now, member of the armed services committee republican congressman from montana. the congressman is former team leader of s.e.a.l. team 6 and currently sits on the subcommittee for emerging threats and capabilities. he's the author of the book "american commander." good to have you on the show this morning. >> congressman, great to have you here. tell us about the man who is going to be running d.o.d. what do you know about him?

>> i fought with him in fallujah. he's the right guy for this right time. he's a reluctant warrior in that he's the last person that wants to go to war. but if he goes to war, he goes to war to win. i fought with him in fallujah. the men respect him. he'll face three challenges. one is to shore up front line capability. make sure we have right equipment and right training. we have to shore up our allies and restore trust and d.o.d. itself he's about to enter the bureaucracy. we're too top heavy. this is going to take a warrior to cut through it. >> how much will the end help general mattis?

>> well, it wasn't intended to be a long-term policy. that's been the financial controls. a lot of it is where the focus is. the focus on our defense spending, you saw the report recently where $125 billion in waste. that study was tucked in someone's desk. the point is that the bureaucracy and d.o.d. does need to tighten up and streamline and put decisions where they should on the front line. sequestration wasn't intended to be long-term policy. it's hurt the military. it's hurt on both sides. >> give us an assessment of where you think the d.o.d. is and what are challenges for mattis going in? what does america need to protect itself? what are we missing? >> i think the frustration -- he understands the backbone of our

military is the sergeant and the chief petty officer. a lot of frustration on the front line in that they don't think they have the right rules of engagement to win. they feel like the bureaucracy even troops in contact whether they can get support directly is question of how many layers of bureaucracy you have to cut through. he has to focus on the front line and make sure that when we fight, it's a fight to win the right equipment. we have our main battle tank needs to be replaced. the russian tank now outdistances us. you look at technology in the field. f-35. 17 years in development while china and russia are able to turn around from blueprint to fueling their major weapons systems in three to five years. >> i was going to ask you about the book. tell us about it. >> i was asked what is it like to lead these magnificent men and women. this is a story of point of view

of me watching american exceptionalism. i was never the best jumper, diver, explosive expert but i always knew who was. i would sit in the front row and watch this magnificent force battered and bruised and frustrated at the moment but the comments i get after reading it is that people look at it, read it, you know what? i am so grateful that we have individuals, fine americans, that are willing to sacrifice and commitment to excellence and they talk about the spouses. my wife what it was like for her to be part of the team. >> so looking ahead to your political career, are you considering a run for the senate? >> you know, i'm happy being the only congressman in montana. i get a lot of political pressure to do a lot of things. at the end of the day, i want to help america be great again. i am not really hard right, hard left. i'm red, white and blue.

>> maybe you ought to go with that. >> almost like a flag. >> make america great again. get some baseball caps. i like it. >> you look at this election, what the election was really about. was it about being conservative or left? it was about getting things done. when america is stronger, the world is safer. when america prospers, america prospers. >> i think that's a yes. >> it might be a yes. we shall see. congressman, thank you so much for being with us. we greatly appreciate it. the book is "american commander." serving a country worth fighting for and training the brave soldiers that lead the way. still ahead, donald trump's reported top choice for secretary of state rex tillerson is facing bipartisan scrutiny over his ties to russia. what we're learning this morning about the exxonmobil ceo and the growing fight between donald trump and the u.s. intelligence committee. we'll speak with former head of

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well thank you. free at at discover.com/creditscorecard, even if you're not a customer. >> as you know, kellyanne, we have breaking news. president-elect trump made his choice for head of the dea and it's a high school science teacher from new mexico named walter white. >> walter is amazing. he came highly recommended by

steve bannon. >> oh yeah. steve is the best. we've had some times. >> mr. white, how did you even get considered for this job? do you know donald trump? >> nope. nope. but i'm a big fan. i like his style. he acts first and then asks questions later. i also like that wall he wants to build. nothing comes in from mexico meaning a lot less competition for the rest of us. >> you mean jobs? >> sure. >> that's so good. welcome back to "morning joe." it's monday, december 12th. still with us, msnbc political contributor rick tyler. "the new york times" reporter jeremy peters. former democratic congressman harold ford jr. columnist and associate editor for "the washington post" david ignatius and joining the conversation, national security correspondent for "the new york times" david sanger. and senior foreign affairs correspondent for politico,

michael crowley. >> david sanger, you're making trouble. what are you doing? >> whenever i can, joe. >> you're making trouble. by the way, i was telling everyone around the table i went back and reread the first couple chapters of "the inheritance" your book right before barack obama took office. it's a fascinating, fascinating experience to see how things were eight years ago and the opportunities perhaps that he carried through and those that he lost. anyway, so this weekend had reported -- "times" reported the rnc was hacked. you got strenuous pushback from reince priebus and sean spicer and your reporting yesterday where you talked about how the fbi also has not concluded that

the rnc was hacked. talk about the reporting. talk about the disputes, and what can you tell us this morning? >> it's a fascinating insight into how intelligence is developed. what we reported, joe, is that in the course of the intelligence reports that went to congress and to the president, the cia and other intelligence agencies reported with my confidence that the rnc had been hacked. and this was because they saw data from rnc data bases that were out there. but the rnc had insisted over the weekend they would not say this to us on friday night when they refused to comment, they insist that the fbi told them they had been hacked. what they haven't answered is which of their systems they have checked and not checked and i think there's a lot of question right now about which one this

emerged from. >> let's talk about the fbi part of the story though. what do your sources suggest with the fbi drawing the conclusion rnc had not been hacked? >> i think the fbi was under the conclusion they hadn't yet seen the evidence of this. think about the way the fbi operates and the intelligence services operate. the fbi is looking at what they can see within the united states when they go to the computers of the rnc just as they had been among the first to detect that the dnc was hacked into. the foreign intelligence services, the nsa, the cia, and others look at what data they're able to see in foreign networks. so if they see the data showing up, there's good evidence it came out of something. and i think that's part of the difference. i think part of the other difference is as we've seen many times and i've written about,

david ignatius has written about at moments, the cia and nsa do not get along so well with the fbi and frequently don't fully share their data. in fact, they don't really consider them at times to be a full intelligence agency. >> never have it seems. let me ask you about sean spicer who obviously is a top player at the rnc and that was in the trump transition team. he sent out e-mails late friday night saying he offered the "times" evidence that the rnc had not been hacked and that it was ignored. what's your response to that? >> we haven't been offered any evidence. we called them and talked to them at great length and asked them if they would go on the record on the question of whether they had been hacked or not and they declined to go on the record in any way. they simply said we have no comment for the story. it wasn't until the story came out that they came back to deny

it. >> a busy weekend. and the good news is that it's going to be a crazier, busier week for us all. >> this could well end up being a sign of the way you're going to see things unfold once the administration starts. >> terrific. let's talk with what we know so far in the transition. nbc news learned this weekend that exxonmobil ceo rex tillerson is expected to be nominated as the next secretary of state. we on "morning joe" report that trump's top aides remain concerned with tillerson's close ties with russian president vladimir putin and some top aides recommend the announcement be delayed for several weeks to gauge reaction on capitol hill. tillerson spent his entire career at exxon and his rise was marked by ambitious projects with russia. trump tweeted over the weekend whether i choose him or not for state, rex tillerson, chairman and ceo of exxonmobil is a world

class player and deal maker. stay tuned. and then he said this in his interview on "fox news sunday." >> why does a business executive make sense as the chief diplomat? >> he's more than a business executive. he's a world class player. he's in charge of the largest company in the world. he's in charge of an oil company that's pretty much double the size of his next nearest competitor. it's been a company that's been unbelievably managed. and to me a great advantage is he knows many of the players. he knows them well. he does massive deals in russia. he does massive deals for the company. not for himself. >> as vice president for exxon's russian unit in the 1990s, tillerson oversaw their flagship island drilling project where he met putin in 1999. five years ago exxon signed a

multibillion dollar deal with a russian owned company. the deal led to tillerson receiving the country's order of friendship decoration and later a billion barrel oil discovery off russia's northern coast in 2014 but the project was halted when the u.s. and european union levied sections against russia for its aggression against ukraine. exxon said those sanctions cost the company $1 billion. tillerson has fought against the sanctions saying in may 2014 we don't find them to be effective unless they are very well implemented. we always encourage the people who are making those decisions to consider the very broad collateral damage of who they are really harming with sanctions. in that case is he talking about his company and their profits? >> yeah. >> shareholders. >> i think so. and the shareholders.

you have these arguments and have had them for some time. remember reagan and the russian grain embargo and whether lifting it would help or not. they took it out on reagan in the early 1980s for that let's talk about tillerson. you had said before some concerns about people coming from the business as secretary of state. what do you think that brings in a positive sense and what problems? what concerns would you have about having a top ceo in that position? >> tillerson brings a businessman's business executive's tough sense of negotiation of the world. a lot of what secretary of state does is different than that. it's representational. it's touring the world. it's often sitting down with people who you wouldn't want to make deals with but representing the united states. it involves a different kind of negotiating. i'm not sure that president-elect trump

understands that as idea of the art of the deal here seems more let's go hard all the time. you know, tillerson has the issue of his history with russia that he has to explain to the senate committee that's going to review his nomination and explain why he doesn't come to the table with preset ideas about removing sanctions. that's really important. these sanctions were applied in a bipartisan basis after the russian invasion of ukraine. that's key for him to establish confidence. he needs to tell israelis i'm close to gulf arabs but that doesn't mean i'm not sympathetic. and we haven't talked about china but we have a crisis in our relations with china. it's the most important thing

the next secretary of state will do is get that policy right. and we need to hear from tillerson about that. >> one of the things, harold, that has surprised me as the transition team talks and donald trump is formulating what he wants to do with foreign policy, at the top of the list seems to be and of course it makes sense because he thinks big. as david ignatius says, he doesn't seem to slow down. he doesn't really have a light touch. kind of a teddy roosevelt type of big. but they're obsessing over a possible mid east peace deal. that's what they want to do. they want to hit the grand slams. tillerson is lined up very well to do that with arab countries but again there is this issue of israel that obviously they're going to have to work and finesse and that could be a challenge as well that they have

to overcome. >> i think all of the questions that david just raised are ones that should be raised during the confirmation hearing. it was reported over the weekend that russia is challenging a nato even more so in the baltic states. he'll have to answer how would he as secretary of state might he advise the president on. he talked about the sanctions creating collateral damage presumably for his shareholders and his company. the question would be what would sanctions look like to avoid that collateral damage and you would advise this president. questions should be asked. trump seems to be very comfortable with this guy. comfortable because of rick's point they speak a very similar language and business language and success language and equally important, he's picked people, trump has, that represented his company and shareholders extraordinarily well and he believes those people can do the same if put into a position of power and government meaning they represent the entire country. deserves a full comprehensive to

mccaccain's point, a thorough investigation. if gates or rice want to come forward, they should. the committee should not shirk its responsibility and how would he handle these tough and delicate situations. i want your dad to come and lay out what he believes the challenges are that we face in that region of the world and ask him answer those questions too. >> hairrold brings up a good point. i have spoken with rex tillerson. he's an extraordinarily impressive man. condy rice actually spoke to donald trump for the first time suggesting that he would make a very good secretary of state. we heard bob gates also very supportive and he's friends with jim baker of course. almost universally praised figure from the reagan administration. there seems to be again two major criticisms. one obviously is his close

relationship with putin and secondly, we haven't heard it yet but it's coming after the putin talk dissipates, and that is can he forge a good relationship with israel. >> right. so rice and gates are significant data points. they know how these things work. if they are actual endorsements are powerful ones. it's worth pointing out in that context that the fact that tillerson had this relationship with putin in russia doesn't mean he's a nefarious guy or he did anything wrong. russia is one of the world's largest energy exporters and if you're running a company like exxonmobil, of course you're going to do a lot of business with russia. i think in a way tillerson is distracting from the larger question. it's the reason some people are very concerned which is what are donald trump's intentions towards vladimir putin and

u.s./russia relationship. it's not tillerson's character or judgment, that's important but it's a sign after some debate over what trump intends to do that he really does mean to turn this u.s./russia relationship around potentially 180 degrees which people find disturbing and people think will mean throwing allies under the bus, compromising core u.s. principles in the name of a friendship with putin. so those endorsements are significant if they're real endorsements. i think, again, people have to keep in mind the larger picture and what a tillerson confirmation debate would become, which is a kind of conservatives and many democrats -- conservative democrats and republicans in congress with the attempt to reset the relationship they think is foolish. >> great point by michael crowley. if donald trump didn't have this background that concerned people on vladimir putin, nobody would

think twice about the ceo of exxon doing what the ceo of exxon should do. and that is make deals across the world and if he can get into russia, congratulations. you've done what hardly anybody else can do on that scale. but it is complicated by the questions that have lingered around donald trump and vladimir putin and what he said about nato and of course now him pushing back on the cia suggesting that the russians were trying to impact the election. >> think about two fights that donald trump could potentially have with capitol hill republicans on capitol hill. the one hand you have what seems to be a likely pending investigation into the hacking of which an investigation that may produce some findings that donald trump does not want to hear. then you have this fight with rex tillerson. >> an investigation that will be going on for a very long time. >> next two years. >> long after we figured out who the next secretary of state is going to be. >> and the rex tillerson

confirmation fight. michael is right. you not only look at the issues and how upset a lot of republicans and democrats will be about pushing reset on that relationship with russia and flipping that around but look at the personalities. john mccain. marco rubio. rand paul. lindsey graham. these are not exactly trump friends. >> and where is jeff flake in that? david sanger, let me ask you, what do you think the biggest concern for tillerson among the senators that are going to be passing judgment on him? what do you think that biggest concern may be? >> you know, joe, one of the oddities of working in the oil territory where mr. tillerson has been now for 41 years is that oil usually sits under the land that is run by some of the world's worst dictators. and he's going to have to if he gets into this job, reverse his

normal instinct, which would be to basically make nice, strike the deal, and try to think in terms of human rights issues, think in terms of longer strategic relationships and he's going to be commanding a state department that is the exact cultural opposite of exxonmobil. it's leaky. it has a lot of dissent. i think that's going to be quite an adjustment. >> which your description of the state department you've just described all of the reasons why john bolton should not be his number two while he's -- >> you didn't mean to but you did. >> while he's away, that's the last person you want in that position. >> you certainly want somebody who the building would think could manage the place well, who has a long history in diplomacy, and i'm not entirely sure that

mr. bolton is someone many in the people are eager to see. >> that's a polite way of putting it. >> the thing that tillerson has going for him in mr. trump's mind is he does a lot of transactions. what jumped out at us what we did our long foreign policy interviews with mr. trump earlier in the year is that he views the world very transactionally. he's not an alliance builder. the big question for rex tillerson is he going to be equally transactional or can he compensate for that and figure out how to build long-term alliances that michael and david were talking about. >> michael crowley, when you look at a lot of these nominees, businesses are very well taken care of if you look at the background of these people. for rex tillerson himself, would you say he needs to be able to answer before congress or to the fact that he might need to look

at those sanctions a different way? >> absolutely. this goes back to what i was saying before. it's not clear that trump himself wants to keep the sanctions. so tillerson will become a vehicle for this larger debate about our larger policy toward russia. you know, it may be an indication that trump thinks those sanctions should be gone. tillerson presumably would be in favor of that. he seems to think that they are count productive and stunting business and signs he thinks that business is the most important part of our foreign policy presence. >> to defend tillerson, and i'm not being critical, the president was elected. i didn't vote for him. his world view is something the country has said we would like to pursue. so naturally i would hope if you're going before congress, congress has to remember these d designees are the right of the president to choose. tillerson is impressive in several regards. one in particular, the fact that he's dealt with these dictators

that sanger is talking about, he actually knows more about them than perhaps other secretaries of state in the past. >> this is what impressed trump and the team the most. almost like everybody else that went before him was on a different level. >> practical versus theoretical. he likes practical. >> he's been there. >> he has an advantage. >> he's been in venezuela. they tried to stiff arm him. all other oil companies stayed down there. rex tillerson basically said screw you guys. got on his plane and came home and people were shocked that he took that tough of a stance against venezuela. he has had real world experience. >> what was your gut when you spoke with him? >> i can vouch for no one. it certainly helps that i know that condy, bob gates, and jim

baker consider him up for the job, especially condy rice, that she never talked to donald trump until she called him and said get this guy as secretary of state. >> they all know him. >> i will tell you, i have been very critical of other choices for secretary of state. people that i did know, and i was very concerned. i don't know rex tillerson that well. i will tell you at least from my conversations with him, i'm pretty comfortable. i'm very comfortable actually in him being able to do the job. my biggest concerns have to do with russia, israel, and management of the state department. because as david sanger said, the state department will cut you into a million pieces. if you're a ceo that says i'm used to doing what i want to do and i say i'm going to do this, they will chop you up day in and day out with leaks.

i will tell you this, if john bolton is rex tillerson's number two, i am very, very concerned because bolton doesn't have what it takes to nail the place down while tillerson is overseas. by the way, why would donald trump pick a guy who still thinks invading iraq was a good idea? this is madness by the way. i keep hearing john bolton's name. this guy still believes knowing everything that we know that we should have invaded iraq. how does that line up with anything donald trump -- >> with his world view. over the course of the campaign, donald trump giving us a foreign policy that was not interventionist. you're going to appoint one of the biggest neoconservatives to your administration doesn't square. >> these are the same guys that told us there were weapons of mass destruction. he uses that line to defend himself yet we're hearing a john

bolton is being considered? >> i don't believe it. it's not going to happen. >> it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. by the way, that's the last thing rex tillerson needs. if rex tillerson gets somebody that knows how to run state while he's doing his job across the world, then i personally again it means very little but i'm personally comfortable. he is in a different league. he's got to answer the putin questions. and he's got to answer the israel questions. >> okay. david sanger and michael crowley, thank you both. still ahead on "morning joe," trump's campaign said of the cia's report that russians wanted to help trump win the election. these are the same people that said saddam hussein had weapons of mass destruction. we're going to bring in former cia director michael hayden and later, congressman peter king joins us. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. ♪

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joining from us capitol hill, now a principle at the chertoff group, retired general michael hayden. good day to have you on, sir. >> thank you, general. a lot to get to. let's start with rex tillerson possible secretary of state choice. what can you tell us about him? >> your comments earlier, joe, about the vetting process, they're very important here. frankly, when he has the endorsement of bob gates, condy rice and jim baker, we would have a lot of time for this guy. i think he will survive the confirmation process. >> have you had an opportunity to deal with him before? >> no, i have not. i know him only by reputation, which is really quite strong. i get the question about the relationship with putin. i do believe we can get beyond

that it i'm hopeful we can get beyond that because he's a very talented man. >> let me ask but this weekend. a lot of news breaking about the russians possibly trying to influence the election. what are your concerns about a president-elect denigrating the cia as much as donald trump did this weekend? >> i got a micro and macro of concern, joe. the macro concern is ignoring what appears to be solid intelligence that the russians did things to affect the american political process. the macro thing -- frankly, i always suspected that this relationship building between the intel community and the incoming president was going to be difficult, it's gone beyond difficult. this is about as dark as i can imagine it to be. in 48 hours, he said the intelligence community on which he will rely is incompetent, politicized and frankly he didn't have a lot of time for them. that's not a winning formula for

him. >> so what is -- i guess what is the argument for going through daily briefings if perhaps they are the same thing every day? >> which is his argument. >> they aren't the same thing every day, joe. they are different every day. the world changes. different topics are highlighted. they are used not just for urgent news and immediate warning, they are used for build up the data base that the president will rely on over his time in office. and right now -- by the way, joe, i'll give you an additional reason you want to do this every day. as we've done for the last 16 years. the intelligence community needs to hear from the president what his concerns are. where he wants them to place their emphasis. this is not transmission. it's an important dialogue. why would the president want to give that up? >> harold ford?

>> two questions, general hayden, good morning. first, have you been contacted at all by the transition team to provide advice by counsel? >> i've been asked by the incoming cia director to chat with him. mike pompeo has talked with all former directors of the cia and i'm quite happy to chat with him. >> this weekend there was word about russia and nato and perhaps them pushing in ways and testing nato. what would be your advice to the incoming secretary of defense and incoming secretary of state when we get one as to how to deal with and how to handle that? >> harold, this is probably the most important alliance that we have. frankly, i think the current administration has been a little light and late in responding to russia and pushing against the alliance particularly the baltic states. i would love a speech in which the president, the current one or the incoming one goes up to lithuania and says something about here i stand on sacred

nato ground. so that there's no ambiguity in the mind of vladimir putin of what the united states would do if these friends and allies are truly threatened. >> david ignatius? >> general hayden, given the way the cia has become a political football in the last few weeks, what would be your advice to the incoming cia director mike pompeo both internally in what he should say to the workforce and what he should say to his boss, donald trump? >> david you suggested something earlier that is really spot on. the way leon panetta defended the agency within his administration. and so i think congressman pompeo needs to understand when he's going through his confirmation hearing, every tv set at langley will be on and they will be paying attention to every word. his audience during that confirmation hearing may appear to be the senators but it's not.

his most important audience for that conversation for that hearing is his future workforce. and they are looking for clues from him that they will defend him within the administration the way leon did within his. >> that's so important. jeremy? >> so, general, that's a good place for what i was going to ask you to jump to real quickly. tell me about what you're hearing from inside the cia right now as to how they are responding to pompeo? my colleague, david sanger, alluded to this earlier. so far it's been a pretty warm reception. is that what you're hearing as well? >> that's exactly what i'm hearing. look, the congressman acted like a tea party congressman from kansas when it came to some political questions with regard to benghazi and e-mail servers. even when that was going on , below the surface i'm told the agency had a high regard for him as a serious student who worked hard and studied the issues and asked good questions and was

genuinely interested in what they did. so i think they think this is a pretty good choice. >> just from 30,000 feet, i know there are a lot of people very concerned about donald trump's possible selections for his foreign policy team. if that foreign policy team ends up being pompeo, general mattis, and tillerson at state, how would you rate that team? >> the most important criteria i was looking for was head of the agencies were people that the president would listen to. he wouldn't blow off. i think the names you mentioned fit that category very well. >> all right. >> michael hayden, thank you. >> i'm reassured. >> he's someone we have a lot of time for. >> thank you, general. >> so usually when you write a column, you're, like, read my column. it's awesome.

you don't say, hey, you're going to hate this. a tweet that a column that most of my readers will strongly disagree with. we'll find out what nick wrote ahead on "morning joe." ♪ ♪ ♪ style lets you stand out from the herd. what's inside sets you apart. the cadillac escalade. enjoy our best offers of the year.

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38 past the hour. >> i want to go to ann arbor. are we going to hopkins? >> hopkins is a great place. they have crying rooms. >> they did have a crying room. we'll have to talk to them about that. >> no crying rooms. >> nicholas krystof writes the dangers of echo chambers on campus. part of it reads like this. after donald trump's election, some universities echoed with primal howls. faculty members canceled classes for weeping. >> let me get through it. >> terrified students asked how

can this possibly be happening? i share apprehensions about president-elect trump but i also fear the reaction was evidence of how insular universities have become. when students inhabit liberal bubbles, they're not learning much about their own country. we liberals are adept at pointing out hypocrisies about trump. too often we embrace diversity of all kinds and we champion tolerance. we want to be inclusive of people that don't look like us so long as they think like us. >> wow. ouch. >> powerfully true. >> that would be a big yes, nick. >> it's for liberals to read. one of the things that i throughout my entire life, i know that whether i was an

undergrad or in law school, i had to defend every word i said. someone center left could say something stupid and everyone would agree with them because there was this group think that caused people to be intellectually flabby. they just did. "the new york times" this a profile on john roberts. he was so great in front of the senate. every time he raised his hand in law school at harvard, he knew he was going to get his head knocked off. so you just sharpen your arguments. if you're around a place that doesn't let condy rice come and speak at a graduation because she's too conservative, then, harold, you talk about il liberal education. that's not liberal education. it has seized college campuses

across america. one out of ten professors that are republicans or conservatives. you can't understand the world if you don't let it in behind your gates. >> the most powerful statement is the final sentence that mika quoted about diversity is not just about embracing folks people that don't look like you or think about you. my alma mater at michigan, president obama spoke there for commencement several years ago. one of the things he hoped students to do would be for conservatives to read and liberals to read not only where each is coming from but to sharpen your own argument. it is embarrassing that every elite conservative or liberal got this race wrong with the exception of a handful. one of the things the country has to do after every race is to raise the hood and understand democrats and republicans what happened. why was there disconnect? i have to leave my office.

you and mika commented on this. leave this tower i sit in and get out and try tonds what unde what's happening in the country. it has to start at universities. if kids don't feel they can have honest conversations there -- >> the arguments are so closed off. i feel sorry for the kids there. they are so closed off. this isn't just ivy league. i went to the university of alabama. a very conservative southern state school culturally. i was a liberal arts major. i can't remember a single conservative to moderate republican professor i had. they were all obviously democrats, which again is fine with me. because i spent my entire life sharpening my arguments. but, again, everywhere you go, people say you're right no matter how weak your argument is, it creates an intellectual laziness that allows you to see your party collapse and you wake up one day and you only have 11

or 12 governors nationwide. >> the notion that opposing political view is not just wrong but it's offensive. that you can't possibly bear the thought of having to be exposed to the other side's argument. it's so corrosive. >> it is. >> it's arrogant. if a speaker comes to your campus and don't want to hear from him, don't go to his speech. >> donald trump elected john kelly this morning. we'll talk to peter king about that pick and other high profile choices next on "morning joe."

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out. we're going to build a -- >> that was donald trump campaigning alongside republican senate candidate john kennedy in louisiana over the weekend. kennedy won the runoff giving the republicans a 52-48 advantage in the senate. joining us now, a member of the homeland security committee, republican congressman peter king of new york. also chairman of the counterterrorism and intelligence subcommittee. good to have you on the show this morning, congressman. >> thank you, mika. good morning. >> what's your gut on rex tillerson? >> yi don't know him. he has strong endorsements. certainly appears to be a strong leader and person that knows his way around the world. the only question would be can he translate that strong leadership into an overall view of the world. in other words, he's been dealing country by country. will he be able to put that into the whole world. i have no reason to think he won't. donald trump trusts him. he interviewed him and you have gates and condy rice and jim

baker, obviously this guy has a lot going for him. i would certainly support the choice. >> let's talk about general kelly just appointed department of homeland security. general kelly also -- nominated. general kelly obviously comes with positive critiques from what we've seen around the table here. what can you tell us about him? >> i never worked with him. once his name started being mentioned, i was getting e-mails from people all over who served under him and worked with him.

>> spoken like a true a true lo island republican. the guy, you know. at least you don't insult them and say they're barefoot barefoot and comingrevivals, like me, pete king. >> you were. >> you had me. but go ahead. >> no, i mean, seriously, again, these are extremely knowledgeable people. you talk about general mattis who is considered to be both a great general and also an historian. i have seen general mattis up close when he came before the intelligence committee. this general is extremely intelligent. obviously. you have general kelly. john kelly. mike kelley also. everyone might not be crazy about him. i worked with him over the years. he was one of the only ones on isis early on. you put this team together, i think it's solid. >> jeremy peters. >> congresscongressman, over th

weekend, you had a bipartisan colleague led by john mccain and chuck schumer calling for an investigation into the russian hacking. do you think an official congressional inquiry is the way to go, and would you support a similar effort in the house? >> yes, i would. and again, i have to be careful what i say. it's very clear to me that there was russian involvement as far as the hacking of the democratic national committee. i'm not as certain that applies to john podesta's e-mails. i also know there's a real -- i'm not aware until i heard over the last several days that there's supposedly a consensus that this was intended to help donald trump. i mean y have been at a lot of meetings, gotten a lot of briefings. >> let me stop you there. if you saw news reports this weekend, you could be forgiven for drawing that conclusion. the fact is that somebody testifying in front of congress said that they believed that there was -- that that was the

intent, and the cia is far more comfortable with that assessment than the fbi is, which the fbi has not reached that conclusion yet. >> they haven't. even within the cia, i'm not as certain as the news reports are that it was definitive as it was put in the headlines of the paper, including "the new york times." i think there is still some speculation. maybe going in that direction, but i think the headlines and the stories are much more emphatic than the evidence so far. >> have you been briefed on these matters? have you had any intel briefings on these matters? >> i have had briefing as recently as ten days ago. but again, i have spoken to people who were at some of the briefings that we're talking about and i still think there's a split opinion. there's no smoking gun, if you will. and i think the fact that it's coming out now, that it's leaked at all, i think is really dangerous. >> you're saying there's even split opinions based on what you have heard within the cia?

>> yeah. and i was not at the most recent briefing but i have spoken to people who have been and they did not come away with the same conclusion as is in the paper, in the papers over the weekend. >> you're suggesting it is not as definitive as it was reported. the conclusion that the cia has all come to the conclusion. and again, i'm not belaboring any point. there's a -- i thought, a pretty stunning lack of clarity this weekend of the reporting, of all the reporting i saw krrb i heard a lot of what you heard offline, that it is not as clear cut. it's not suggesting that it didn't happen. and like you, i want to see all the investigations. but it seems that some of these articles may have painted this in far too broad of a brush. >> yeah, and just seems very quis den coincidental. we can all agree if the russians

wanted to pua cloud over the election, disrupt the election, and the importance of the investigation is to see how far they went, what their purpose was, and what we can do to prevent it in the future. the russians have been doing this to the soviets going back to 1948, i guess. this is their pattern. this is the most intrusivethy have been in the united states. >> and vice versa as well. right? so peter -- >> we spy. >> we spy on everybody else. we understand this. and i know we have to go to break, but that brings up a great point. we hear that the russians are making all these advances on us. we're being warned now, what we say on the phones are going to be monitored by the russians and the israelis and the chinese. what are we doing? what's our intel? what are our intel agencies doing? are we losing? is this a unilateral war? or are we -- are we moving forward in a way to protect

americans over the next four years? >> we are doing an awful lot. what we don't do, though, is go into commercial hacking. we dope go into commercial espionage. we right now have more abilities than the russians and chinese or the iranians. but having said that, it's a constant battle, but we're doing a very good job. buit's never enough when you're up against these type of enemies because they're capable of more diabol kk conduct than we are. >> congressman peter king, thank you. >> a laugh out of rick. >> are you all right? >> we only do it -- >> this is tat for ta. putin is sending a message, we'll show you what we do. >> you think this is putin sending a message? >> yeah. >> all right, then. thank you very much. >> congressman peter king, thank you. >> putin is disproportion ltly getting a lot of news because they need to be relevant because they're not relevant economically. they demonstrated all their

weapons systems don't work. he's trying to sell them. it was a disaster. so i'm skeptical. >> okay. >> i see that. okay, still ahead, donald trump is running -- >> we only do it for good reasons. >> that's correct. >> we're the captain america of like the world. >> still ahead, donald trump is ready to slap tariffs on u.s. companies that go overseas but the top republican who writes tax law isn't quite as convinced. we'll talk to the chairman of the house ways and means committee, congressman kevin brady, and much more on the growing fight between donald trump and the cia. or is it a fight between the cia and the fbi? it's all very confusing. we're back in a moment. start yours with philips sonicare, the no.1 choice of dentists. compared to oral-b 7000, philips sonicare flexcare platinum removes significantly more plaque. this is the sound of sonic technology cleaning deep between teeth. hear the difference? get healthier gums in just 2 weeks vs a manual toothbrush

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♪ time to think of your future it's your retirement. know where you stand. good morning. it is monday, and for some of us, a snowy monday. december 12th. welcome to "morning joe." we're getting cles to christmas. with us on set, former ted cruz campaign communications director, now an msnbc political director, rick tyler. "new york times" reporter jeremy peters. political analyst, former democrat, congressman harold ford jr. >> harold and i -- >> you're matchy matchy. literally matching. >> sort of a uva thing. >> the campus look going. >> yeah, something like that. and in washington, columnist and associate editor for "the washington post," david ignatius. very elegant. a lot going on today. >> very sorry, david, to bring

you in on a day that is absolutely nothing to talk about. >> no foreign news. >> in your realm. i'm looking right now, the front page article. actually, this is a very good synthesis of what's going on this weekend where the "times" comes out with a story, "the washington post" responds as well. fascinating hearings on whether the russians were trying to influence this election. and as the times says and we'll go to this in a second, right now, a conflict between the cia's conclusions, also with the fbi's conclusions. and so just pretty remarkable. what's going on in our intel communities and then the president-elect and what he's saying about the cia. i think it is another example of using the term unprecedented as it relates to donald trump. >> we'll be using that a lot. first, nbc news has learned this

weekend that exxonmobil ceo rex tillerson is expected to be nominated as the next secretary of state. now, we report that trump's top aides remain concerned with tillerson's close ties with russian president vladimir putin, and some top aides are recommending the announcement be delayed for several weeks to gauge reaction on capitol hill. tillerson has spent his entire career at exxon and his rise was marked by ambitious projects with russia. trump tweeted over the weekend, whether i choose him or not for state, rex tillerson, the chairman and ceo of exxonmobil is a world class player and deal maker. stay tuned. he said this in his interview on fox news obsunday. >> why does a business executive make sense as the chief diplomat? >> well, in his case, he's much more than a business executive. he's a world-class player. he's in charge of, i guess, the largest company in the world. he's in charge of an oil company that's pretty much doubled the

size of the next nearest competer. it's been a company that's been unbelievably managed. and to me, a great advantage is he knows many of the players. and he knows them well. he does massive deals in russia. he does massive deals for the company, not for himself. >> so we're aware this is trump's top pick. you had a chance, you have spoken with rex tillerson. what did you think? >> i have. the thing is that donald trump has been very impressed by a lot of people who have gone through. david petraeus, extraordinarily impressed. mitt romney, he actually got along with him very well. and at different times he was ready to go with those two gentlemen. i think here what you hear not only from donald trump and also donald trump's aides is that they believe this guy is in a league of his own. he's been on the world stage for 15, 20 years. he's run one of the top

companies on the planet. it's really interesting reading the news about, first of all, the big knock this weekend on twitter has been that he is vladimir putin's stooge. as i pointed out last night, he was recommended, you know, condi rice is not called donald trump yet. condi rice called donald trump to say this is your man at state. bob gates also reportedly recommended rex tillerson. rex tillerson's been a close friend with jim baker. why do i bring all this up? not to carry rex tillerson's brief, but just to tell you it's going to be very hard for marco rubio who came out against him and very hard for john mccain and very hard for lindsey graham to paint rex tillerson as some sort of putin stooge when you have condi rice and james baker and possibly even bob gates saying we know this guy.

we like this guy. and we think he'll be a very, very effective secretary of state. >> not only is it going to be hard for them to paint him as such, but donald trump doesn't care. i had a conversation with a senior trump aide last night about the backlash and whether or not this is weighing on donald trump and affecting his decision making process, and pretty much you can expect -- what i got back didn't surprise me at all. that was, we are not going to let john mccain and marco rubio tell us who we can have in our administration. >> no. >> and it -- can you imagine a committee hearing, a confirmation hearing where bob gates, james baker, and condi rice come before the committee saying this person is qualified to be the next secretary of state? some have asked you can't discern what donald trump is looking for in a secretary of state. he wants a deal maker. someone who can travel the world and be respected without the title. in tillerson, he brings that in many ways to this job.

and finally, to jeremy's point, this doesn't bother him much. he wants someone he feels comfortable with. you have said before and others on the show, somebody he feels he can work with, somebody he is confident in and secure in. or with. and it looks as if rex tillerson is measuring up to all the standards laid out. >> harold is right. that's what we have been saying. he wants somebody he's comfortable with personally, and he's very comfortable with rex tillerson. and somebody that knows the world. and he certainly has found that here. >> the title, bricking him more prestige, him bringing prestige to the job. >> somebody who can play on the big stage. i tell you what's interesting, david ignatius, and i think it may be but a subplot now with everybody talking about vladimir putin. i think the bigger challenge for rex tillerson, if there is a challenge at all moving forward, if he is appointed midweek, which our sources say is likely,

the bigger problem may actually be israel. and that's what the trump transition team is going to have to deal with, because if you could pick somebody to reverse the damage of the past eight years with america's relationships with the gulf states and sunni arab nations across the middle east, it would be hard to find somebody that could do that better than rex tillerson because he's been doing business with these people and making lots of money for everybody for 15 or 20 years. but, as close as he is to those sunni aybar nations, that also is a blind spot regarding israel, because of course, he hasn't done business with israel, because there's no oil in israel. >> the gulf arabs love the idea of tillerson as secretary of state. he is known. he has been doing deals in saudi arabia, in the uae, for many

years. they regard him as a friend. i do think that that makes it complicated for him as secretary of state to do what's in recent years been a central part of that job, which is to work the israeli-palestinian negotiating issue. the president-elect has said he wants to do that through the white house, that he's personally interested. i think that is a complicated issue. in this pick, i see, joe, one interesting consistent theme. trump likes a tough guy. this is the first business person we have had as secretary of state in generations. typically, we have lawyers or we have academics in that role. we have not had business people going back, i think, to the time of allen dulles and john foster dulles at state. so it does mark something of a

break. and trump in all of these key decisions has got tough guys, proven deal makers, clearly he wants a transactional presidency. >> you know, david, it reminds me, and i'm sure you read stephen ambrose's great book on eisenhower. it was the first of its kind to really dig into eisenhower's thought process being president of the united states. but eisenhower chose people he didn't know for top positions. said he didn't want a lot of friends close by in like the top positions like state and defense. but said he wanted people in eisenhower's words, quote, that couldn't afford to work for me. and it looks like trump, by getting all these people from goldman and exxonmobil and other corporations may be doing the same thing here. >> you know, he's taking people who don't need the jobs, and in

that sense, are attractive. you look at the lineup, mattis, general kelly at dhs, now tillerson. these are tough guys. i'm told by a source. if you want to look at the oil business, tillerson is famous for his iq, exxon is a very smart, well-run company. but not for his eq. he's not the guy who goes out and makes the deals, pats people on the back, which is a part of the oil business. i think that side of diplomacy, he's going to have to start from a low base. >> how concern ed are you, rick with the putin side of the story, which really drove everything throughout the weekend? is it -- is this a serious concern for confirmation? >> i don't think so. it will come out in confirmation. that seems to be the big objection, one, he worked in the oil business, which i don't hold against him, and george schultz had worked in government before, and david is exactly right.

we had politicians. john kerry, we had academics, condoleezza rice. and we have had generals, general colin powell, all in this position. never tried a businessman. everyone seems to be apaplectic he somehow can't do it, but he's clearly qualified to do it. on any level, he's a pretty smart, very impressive, but the other thing is, he speaks trump's language. they're business guys. they connect. >> still ahead on "morning joe," donald trump fires back at the cia over their secret assessment that russia tried to tilt the election in his favor. we'll get into the riff between the cia and the fbi over the same report. plus, is trump's tariff plan dead in the water on capitol hill? we'll talk to the chairman of the ways and means committee about the brewing fight in washington. and later, acclaimed author michael lewis joins us. first, bill karins with a check on the forecast as a system that dumped inches of snow in the midwest heads to the

northeast. bill. >> it's exiting in a hurry. that's the good news today. the northeast has had a very messy morning commute. the afternoon will be 100 times better and much warmer. over the weekend, chicago picked up almost eight inches of snow. milwaukee picked up four inches of snow. detroit, your total were anywhere from 3 to 6 inches. there's a lot of shoveling to be done this morning. get it done in a hurry because the cold air is right behind it. you don't want anything turning to ice. if it does, it will be there for a long time. even indiana got into the mix. a lot of people looking a white christmas. the snow has ended all through much of new york state and also portions of pennsylvania. the heavier snow is in the blue right over the top of new hampshire and maine. temperatures have warmed up. a lot of roads are improving, up to 33 in harvard, 33 in albany. plenty cold in northern new england. that's where we have the wint storm warnings. almost about 18 million people under winter weather advisories, but those will be dropped shortly as the temperatures warm. additional snowfall totals, 3 to

6 inches, only northern portions of new england. again, after this storm exits, the big story is the cold coming down from canada. just the start of it today. 8 in billings and only 12 in minneapolis. that's the warmest they're going to be all week long. new york city even saw their first official snowfall of the season, about a half inch in central park. more "morning joe" when we come back. liberty mutual stood with me when i was too busy with the kids to get a repair estimate. liberty did what? yeah, with liberty mutual all i

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you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. i don't have to be told, you know, i'm a smart person. i don't have to be the told the same thing in the same words every single day for the next eight years. now, in the meantime, my generals who are great are being briefed, and mike pence is being briefed. i'm being briefed also. but if they're going to come in and tell me the exact same thing they told me, it doesn't change necessarily. there will be times where it might change. i'll be there, not every day, but more than that.

i don't need to be told, chris, the same thing every day, every morning, same words. nothing has changed. let's go over it again. i don't need that. >> why is he belaboring the point? >> because he's saying they're belaboring the point with him. donald trump has complained and i have been asking what are these reports about him not taking the briefing. is that the briefings are for the most part day in and day out about the same. but he has told them if things change, as we heard on fox, if things change, if something i need to know, i'm available in a minute's notice. does that cause you concern? >> it does in the sense that it is a slighting reference to the u.s. intelligence community, which is working hard, often in dangerous circumstances, 24/7, to see what's going on in the

world, even if that means mr. president, there is no change in this crisis situation we have been monitoring. there would have been different ways to say that that would have conveyed less contempt for the process. trump thinks he knows more -- >> what is your recommendation? if there aren't great changes, let's say from monday to tuesday, what's your recommendation, not just for donald trump but for any president in transition? should they take it every day? >> so for years, intelligence analysts have been thinking, how can we make the pbd, the daily briefing they give the president, more interesting, more dynamic, more of the facts the president needs to make decisions. they have struggled with that. they obviously with this president need to struggle more. many presidents have said i want an oral briefing so i can ask the questions that matter to me. you don't tell me what you think i need to know. i'll ask you what i think is crucial to policy. they're obviously going to think about that. the problem right now is that these comments about not being

briefed come as -- you couldn't invent this in a spy novel. the cia has said that russia was running a covert action to destabilize our political system, and in this latest set of reports, to elect donald trump, and donald trump is saying, what does the cia know? these are the guys who gave you wmd. a sneer towards the cia and its analysts. that's a problem. that's something the president really needs to think carefully about. >> well, let's turn now to the cia's assessment thatrision hackers sought to help tilt the election in president obama donald trump's favor. a congressional official with knowledge of the issue tells nbc news that the cia has concluded that russia mounted a covert intelligence operation to help trump defeat hillary clinton. according to the official, director of national intelligence james clapper briefed senators on the matter during a closed-door meeting last week. a "washington post" report on

friday first described how the intelligence community reached the consensus on moscow's efforts and the divisions between intelligence agencies on the matter. the post says that while the cia was, quote, direct and unqualified about russia's intentions to help trump in their briefing to lawmakers, the fbi was fuzzy and ambiguous in its presentation of the facts. the paper also says that the fbi is not certain that russia's interference in the election was meant to alter the results, adding that the competing messages, according to official, reflects cultural differences between the two agencies. those officials elaborate that the fbi wants facts and tangible evidence to prove something beyond all reasonable doubt. while the cia is more comfortable drawing infrnlss from behavior. meanwhile, "the new york times" also reports that the fbi and cia were split over the hackers' attempt to break into the

republican national committee systems. according to the times, the cia along with the nsa argue that they were successful, while the fbi argued that they were not. >> okay, so this is, rick, this is very important. a lot of reporting this weekend blurred over some distinctions. i think there were two main stories, as it pertained to intel agencies. one had to do with whether the russians were hacking to impact the election. the cia says definitively, they were. the fbi says they don't have the facts to come to that conclusion that they're not comfortable saying that they were. on the issue of the rnc being hacked, the cia says that they believe they were. the fbi says that they were not. they don't have the evidence that they were. and the rnc says that there's absolutely no evidence they were hacked. so you have these two big stories this weekend. split right down the middle, it's fascinating the cia on one

side. this sounds like water boarding days. the cia on one side. the fbi on the other side. and what's so fascinating is the roles were the opposite of where they were with water boarding. suddenly, the cia is the democrats' best friend and the only agency to trust, go back to the church commission and get a laugh there. and suddenly, republicans are embracing the fbi's conclusions. >> well, i would say several things. first of all, the cia didn't say -- someone at the cia said, and we don't know who that is because that was an unnamed source, and i think it's perfectly understandable. they have two different missions. you and i can look at the evidence the cia got and probably conclude the russians were hacking into the american electoral process. the fbi wants to know definitive proof because that's just -- like you were saying, culturally. what they have is they have a program, malware, that was used to hack into the dnc, and they know that typically, that malware is used by russian

hackers. that's what they have. so the cia can say, yeah, this is what the russians always use. therefore, it's the russians. they were clearly interfering with the election. we can agree with that. the fbi wants to know who did it and have proof and be able to go to a court of law and prove it. they don't have that. >> david, fascinating. absolutely fascinating interagency dispute here between the fbi and cia. what do you know? >> well, first, these two cultures historically have had trouble mixing. you go back to 9/11, one of the problems in 9/11 in connecting the dots was cia/fbi misunderstanding of common information. we start with that background. what we know is -- and i cite our director of national intelligence, secretary of homeland security on october 7. we know that the russians hacked these democratic political

accounts. what we didn't have at that time was a motive. but we had a very strong statement from the top of our government asserting this. we now know there was conversation with members of congress at that time about what to do about this. and that we had a partisan split. it said that mitch mcconnell didn't think taking action made sense back then. there was disagreement. we had a president who was very reluctant to push this hard. i wrote a story about his use of a secret kind of hotline channel to warn the russians about the consequences of this hacking right before the election. he was terribly afraid of escalation. so we're now at the point where we're really going to establish the facts of who did what and what the motivation was. that's the hardest thing in intelligence. >> coming up on "morning joe" -- >> president obama, who by the way, i have gotten along with so well, no, no. he's really doing great. he's been so nice.

>> donald trump continues his praise of barack obama, but doesn't go over well. we'll bring in mike lupica to the talk of the president's transition efforts. we're back after this. they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful.

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my administration will follow two simple rules. buy american and hire american. okay? because from now on, it's going to be america first. america first. our trade deficit is now nearly $800 billion a year. can you believe that? who's doing this? we make all these wonderful trade deals. i love trade. and i love free trade. but right now, we have foolish trade. we have -- okay, ready? we have stupid trade, stupid trade. stupid. it's dumb. >> donald trump -- >> did you hear what charlie just said? he said we don't have to. why is that? >> number one. >> you know how many times i

have heard this. donald trump speaking in baton rouge on friday. joining us now, chairman of the republican house ways and means guess, kevin brady, and republican charlie dent of pennsylvania. >> charlie dent, the steak knives that penn state received for beating ohio state and winning the big ten, they are wonderful steak knives. >> well, yeah. >> you can take some consolation in that. >> we earned it on the field. hey, we have the rose bowl, too. >> that's pretty good. are you surprised trump won pennsylvania? >> yes, i am surprised. >> i am, too. >> because hillary clinton performed very well in the city of philadelphia. won by over 450,000 votes. but donald trump was strong outside those areas and more than didn't think he could make it up, but he did. >> kevin brady, we heard texas was going to be competitive. >> yeah. not so much. >> maybe in a decade. >> look, a great program, ut has a new coach. university of houston has made huge progress.

>> houston was talking to our guy. i don't know if that's going to work. let's talk policy here. tax reform. what does look like? >> i think the best opportunity is in 30 years. i'm not sure this will re-create itself, same elements that drove the reagan reforms are here today. so house republicans, we've unveiled a blueprint that is about 80% similar to trump. a lot of key provisions together. and the big drivers for us, look, we want a tax code built for growth. literally designed to grow jobs and salaries in the u.s. economy, and we want to leap frog america back into the lead pack and keep us there, the most pro-growth places in the planet. our tax reform plan, three big provisions. one, we go all in for the lowest rates in job creators so we can compete and win anywhere. for most americans. 95% of americans, will be able to file using a postcard style system. that simple. the final big reform is we bust up the irs, redesign it for 21st

century agency. key reforms. >> it is -- my dealing with them over the last couple years has been incredible. how it's not even the 20th century bureaucracy. it really is about as bad as -- wasn't my experience as a congressman. if one of my constituents had a problem with the irs, i would pick up the phone. they were always right back to me. and they would always be helpful. >> people forget that. there used to be a time, you couldn't tell which party was in charge of the irs. all customer service. it was a different agency. and our thinking is, one, let's create such a tax code so fair and simple we don't need that same old irs. the other thing is let's focus one mission, customer service, business. >> customer service. >> families, taxpayers. >> charlie, help me out. one of the things i have been concerned ub. i'm all for the tax cuts. i think our rates are too high to be competitive, but donald trump is talking about a bigger

defense, talking about more highways, more infrastructure spending. >> a lot of spending. >> not being entirely serious about entitlement reform. i know the people you represent are concerned about massive deficits and run-away national debt. how do we afford all the things donald trump says he wants? >> that's the $64,000 question. clearly on the infrastructure package, whatever we do there, we're deg to have to find a way to pay for it. regardless of what it is. that's why we need kevin's help here to help us do a tax reform that can help us find the revenue. and then talking about rep repatriation but a sustainable source of revenue for infrastructure. i don't think you can borrow your way into this. public/private partnerships are wonderful, but by themselves we can't do the infrastructure bill. >> $23 billion debt. >> one of the things going on over the last six decades is this idea of progressive economics. we have lots of names for them. the new deal, we have the war on

poverty. all of these things, and the conservatives never seem to be able to package together an economic message for pro-growth. it seems to me when the democrats talk about, you know, the war on women, the war on minorities, the war on environment, there has actually been a war on jobs for the last six decades. you have a small opportunity to turn this around, but you have to win the message war. how do you do that? >> it start with the president, and mr. trump, we have someone all in on the economy. we haven opportunity in tax reform clearly. we have it in rebalancing the regulation. i'm still convinced the biggest income inequality is between the person who doesn't have a good paying job and one who does. and that is what's driving this president. and from the house republican standpoint, we don't know yet what his first 100-day agenda will be exactly, but on tax reform, on replacing obamacare, on all the economic issues, we'll be ready for him. >> charlie, what about the other side of this, where donald trump

is also talking about tariffs? 35% tariffs against china and even more. he still seems to be taking this tact, even though house republicans are concerned. >> as we should be. look, smoot-hawley didn't work well in 1930. it's not going to work well today. we have to be for opening markets. i don't think trade wars end well for anyone. i have serious concerns about that. we should talk about how we're going to open markets. i our country has about 14 trade agreements with 20 countries. we want a net trade surplus in the manufacturing sector with those 20 countries. where we have ruled-based trade, america wins. when we don't have agreements, frankly, that's where we lose. we have to help president-elect donald trump get to a better place on trade. he should be talking about a bilateral with the uk and even japan right now. >> what are the chances, kevin? that americans one day may have a tax return that looks like this?

>> the answer is better than ever. because if not, we have a house with a blueprint, you have american public -- they're sick of the tax code the way it is today. you have presidential leadership all three were key to the reagan reforms. >> how about the house of lords? >> the house of lords. look, i'll tell you what, chairman hatch, head of the finance, is all in on tax reform. >> he calls him chairman hatch instead of lord hatch. >> he's a terrific leader, so we build momentum going forward. i think we can get this done. i really think it's jobs. it's growth. and for families, it's just simplicity, fairness, and they want that. >> congressman kevin brady and charlie dent, thank you both for being here. >> great to see you. see you on the floor sometime soon. >> still ahead on "morning joe" -- >> we must, as a nation, be more unpredictable. we are totally predictable. we tell everything. we're sending troops. we tell them. we're sending something else.

we have a news conference. we have to be unpredictable. and we have to be unpredictable starting now. >> and he is. donald trump back in april, promising to keep the world guessing. we're going to bring back best-selling author michael lewis, whose new book gets to the heart of the raw gut versus hard data. our conversation with him last week only scratched the surface. we're back in just a moment. you don't let anything keep you sidelined.

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it's a pretty easy sell. >> what's that? >> all right, donald trump -- >> a great quarterback. unbelievable. >> we're on the air. >> donald trump's reportedly narrowed the search for secretaseenergy secretary, including one who proposed to scrap the entire department, only to forget its name. >> i will tell you, it's three

agencies of government that i get there that are gone. commerce, education and the -- what's the third one there? let's see. the third agency of government, i would do away with, the education, the -- commerce. and let's see. i can't. the third one, i can't. sorry. oops. >> get out of this. >> i didn't want to see it. >> i did not know we were going to do it. >> i don't want to see it. by the way, he had bad back injury at the time. >> he did. >> sounded like a coach blaming his quarterback. >> here's the deal, he was in bad pain at the time. he was taking medication. as a guy that had back injuries and didn't walk for four months. >> you have to take them. >> so any, we apologize for that. anyway. best-selling author michael lewis is back with us. his new book is the undoing project, the friendship that changed our lives. also joining the table --

>> author and columnist for the new york daily news, mike lupica. >> very spunky. guys versus head, let's keep talking. >> the story i tell is about these two israeli psychologists who examine how the gut leads you wrong. it isn't that the gut is always wrong. it's that there's systematic errors it makes. they exposed it over a period of ten years. it's the story behind moneyball, the story that inatienables the oakland a's to build on players nobody wants. >> michael, this is exactly the war that is still going on, except that the guys who don't believe in analytics are losing the war in baseball. where the old-school managers have finally just had to give in to analytics because they've got all these young general managers and all these guys sitting with their ipads telling them why

this second baseman is better than another second baseman. >> it's not just baseball. baseball is a purest case, i think. you can see it so cleanly. because the data is so clean, because people win and people lose. >> and the numbers. there's numbers all over the place in baseball. >> they're reliable numbers. >> how do we apply it to, let's say -- >> economics. >> economics or being a ceo, picking the right leaders or if you're a president of a university, how do we apply what's in this book with the leadership in those areas? >> i mean, so money ball is just a little piece of this book. but how do you apply, like, an understanding of how the human misjudgment works? like the mechanics of human misjudgment. you keep in mind that your mind is kind of wired to think in stereotypes. and so when you're hiring people for jobs, you have a tendency to hire people who look the part. and you might want to lean

against that a little bit. and if someone happens to get into a job that doesn't look the part, possibly they've got a lot of things going for them that if you had the analytics, it would pick it up because they got there for some reason other than they look the part. be very aware that your mind sees lots of false patterns. >> that aren't there. >> that aren't there. you see -- >> false positives. >> your patterned to recognize pattern. >> can you give us a grand example where gut led to disaster that you talk about in the book? >> israeli foreign policy is over and over. i give you an example, i think it's pulling and sort of replays itself over and over in life. danny con man, one of the psychologists in the book, is training israeli fighter pilots, and he's with the instructors. the instructors are saying you don't praise them, you criticize

them. the praise doesn't work. he said, why? whenever they do something great and you praise them, they do something worse the next time. whenever they do something bad and you criticize them, they get better. this is another example of a cognitive illusion. they're reverting to the mean, and you think -- we're all doomed in the positions of teachers or coaches or leaders of thinking that our criticism works and our praise doesn't simply because of that. we have to lean against that. >> michael, when you watch just the way the president-elect is doing business right now, would you say he's -- >> is this a loaded question? >> i'm serious. i don't think he's going to be an analytics president by any stretch of the imagination. he's going to be more the old-school baseball manager as opposed to the guy looking at some sort of spread sheet. >> barack obama is on the other side of that spectrum. >> just to play devil's advocate just a little bit, his son-in-law, trump's son-in-law,

said we money balled this election. he said we money balled the electoral college. i don't know exactly what they're talking about, but they're not immune to the charms of using data and information. >> very interesting. 6:30 election night, i called him up. everybody said trump was going to lose the six swing states. and as calm as i'm sure billy beane was at some point in money ball, jared looked at the numbers and went, yeah, you know what, i got us up by one in michigan and i'm going with my numbers. he goes, we're going to win michigan. we're going to win ohio easily. we're going to win pennsylvania, and i thought i was being spun. he was so calm, though, just like axelrod four years earlier who said we're going to win this. >> do you think they money balled their way through the midwest? or was it more elaborate than that? >> i think -- i think they knew. i think jared was focused specifically on minnesota, when nobody else was.

nobody. i never -- i never even put minnesota on any map. they were saying they were two points behind going into it. same thing with wisconsin. they saw michigan -- look, we didn't believe them. >> so the running of the campaign is a little different from the decision making in the presidency, and he will be someone, i think, my psychologists would have a lot to say about because he would be operating with his intuitive judgment, and he thinks it's infallerable. the central message is we're wired for infallibility. if you're not aware of that, you will make mistakes. >> the book is the undoing project, a friendship that changed our minds. michael lewis, thank you very much. >> thank you for coming back. we appreciate it. let's go to break. >> the title is, quote, putin is not trying to be a u.s. ally. he's trying to start a new empire. that's what renowned kremlin

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with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what in your wallet? well, he's tweeting again. donald trump tweeted this morning, quote, the f-35 program and cost is out of control. billions of dollars can and will be saved on military and other

purchases after january 20th. >> yes, it is. the f-35 program has, talk about coast overruns. let's bring in -- >> no, no, he's just reporting. cnbc's -- >> did carl leave. >> leave this to me, joe. i got this. carl reports that lockheed martin, contractor who makes the ste stealth fighter, saw its stock fall 3% after the tweet. before the tweet, he also tweeted this. can you imagine if the election results were the opposite? and we tried to play the russia cia card? it would be called conspiracy theory. he went on. unless you catch hackers in the act, it's very hard to determine who was doing the hacking. why wasn't this brought up before the election? >> well, that's actually what a lot of democrats are asking of barack obama, why he didn't bring it up more during the election. you know, really quickly, i spoke between segments to an

ambassador, very influential ambassador who actually overseas, who is very excited about -- >> made key points about rex tillerson. >> excited about rex tillerson, said actually he has more employees at exxon than the state department has. and exxon is in 200 countries, state department is in 150. anyway -- >> that's a point that donald trump likes to make about rex tillerson. he's a player on a very big stage. >> and he has been for ten years. so i think the confirmation hearings are going to be fascinating, especially if condi rice, jim baker, and others come out in support of him. it's going to be very hard for republicans like marco rubio to oppose him. >> let's read from mike lupica's new column. this is about the clear and present danger of having an unhinged hoodlum like putin thinking he can do what the cia

alleged he did and interfere with the runup to election day in america. the irony of this is that one of the dominant narratives of this whole election cycle was hillary clinton's use of a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state. but if it's all true about the glorified criminal enterprise that is vladimir putin's kremlin, ask yourself a question. what was more of a threat to us, hillary's private server or putin's? >> mike lupica. >> wow. >> you know, i'm one of these people who wants the president-elect to do well. and until i'm proven wrong, i'm going to assume if he was smart enough to get here, he's smart enough to figure out how to govern. except, there's no way to deal with this guy, putin. no. i mean, i said in the column, saddam hussein was a regional thug who was never going to move on this country. this guy is far more ambitious. >> what's interesting is, rick, and i have heard other people before this election year, saying that russian foreign

policy is run by resentment and that they are a paper tiger. it seems that you suggested as much when you said they did this hacking, they did all of this other stuff. because they are -- >> i think putin is trying to get a lot of attention and trying to be relevant. we don't have significant economic ties with russia in the way they could cripple us the way china could. one of the side shows of the syrian war has been putin trying to show off his weapons capabilities, actually sell them to other people. that was complete disaster. >> why is that? >> because turkey shot down one of its planes. there was no retaliation. the aircraft carrier, which they have, needs to have a tug boat with it 24 hours a day because it breaks down so often. >> that's thought good. >> in order for the plane to get in the air, it has to go down something that look like a ski ramp to launch the planes in the air. when they land them in the

plane, they end up in the water. that's not a very impressive record. >> russian jets, also, by the way, having problems flying in the desert. >> but he's an enemy of democracies all over the world. >> right. >> and he's a threat to the baltics, which are three nato countries, and he's a threat to ukraine. and they have nukes. but other than that, they're a pretty weak country. >> mike, what should congress do in the investigations? >> joe, here's what i think. and i'm sorry that all the headlines were that the russians were trying to influence the election for donald trump. i think the fact that they thought that they could create any kind of mischief in our election is what is the real story here. and if i'm the president-elect, i'm saying, let's have hearings. let's get to the bottom of this. let's find out what we knew when we knew it and what we can do about it going forward, as opposed to saying we're back to the 400-pound guy in his basement on the bed trying to

hack into the toughest parts of our country. >> wasn't a 400-pound guy. >> i don't know why it has to be 400. >> all right, that does it for us this morning. i'm putting an end to this right now. >> does conjure a really strong image in your mind, doesn't it? >> thank you so much for joining us. >> you said one of the best -- >> army-navy, watching the cadets take the field was a beautiful picture of america. >> a beautiful picture. >> just trying to figure out the camera here. stephanie ruhle -- >> we love america. >> -- picks up the coverage. >> i know stephanie loves america, too. >> i do love america. i'm not so big on fat shaming. thank you so much. i'm stephanie ruhle. new this morning, hacked. the cia claims russia intervened in the election to benefit donald trump, and the president-elect is calling those claims ridiculous. >> i think it's ridiculous. i think it's just another excuse. i don't believe it. but russia isn't the only superpower mr. trump is talking about.