show and a special thanks to steve who lead me stit in the seat. you can have it back. i will be anchoring income week at 2:00. happy holidays. in the meantime, if you miss me, find me on social media. merry christmas. if we are saying goodbye to 2016 and hello to 2017, it must be a special year end edition of mtp daily that starts right now. i'm chuck todd in washington and welcome to this special ion as we close the book on a wild 2016. we are looking 59 the highs and the lows of the campaign. at the political norms that were smash and how the divisions in the country seemed to be getting deeper. we will also use this hour to look ahead to what it will all

mean for the future of american politics. we begin with a look at how far from the very beginning of this race that donald trump defied all of the laws of political gravity. take a look. >> top republican operatives were laughing at trump's flirtation with running. on a scale of 1 to 10, how close are you to running for president? >> much more than five. >> he said he is serious about running for president in 2016. it's peanuts time as far as i'm concerned. lucy is promising charlie brown she won't drop the football. >> until donald trump releases that full government disclosure form, it's hard to take him seriously. >> if he doesn't, today's declaration means nothing. >> did the donald go too far? taking aim ats en tor john mccain's war record. >> nearly every republican in the race pouncing. one demanding trump dropout. >> lindsey graham called his

opponent a jackass. >> iowa's largest newspaper calling for him to dropout of the race. >> i would be totally committed unless i think i'm not going to win. >> i can't see him competing. he might dropout before votes are cast in either state. >> new hampshire is a fiercely independent state that is known to surprise and although donald trump is up by a lot, those leaving the rally early on sunday told me they were going to see john kasich. >> in the new hampshire primary? >> zero. >> it was a madhouse in here yesterday. this was an effort by the stop trump forces, one gasp at stopping the man from being being the nominee. >> veterans groups demand he apologize for criticizing the parents of a fallen soldier. >> dozens had to say they disagree with trump. >> you think he is going to walk now? what's your sense? >> there is a big question.

that was a disaster for him. >> donald trump apologizing for lewd comments made about women in 2005. >> i respectfully ask you with all due respect to step aside. >> gold water had more allies in the republican party than donald trump. you expanding the map or looking for a dent in the wall to see if you can find a path? >> we are scaling the blue wall and crumbling it down. >> this is why we are not have to suffer through four years of donald trump. he has no ideology except the ideology. he will break laws. >> i should have given up in the campaign five times. i should have given up according to them, 10 times. i can take you over 10 different things that happened where people would have given up. they never gave up. >> so we have president-elect

donald trump. hugh hewitt and nbc political analyst from "the washington post." also an nbc political analyst and molly ball from the atlantic. well, molly, let's see. i heard donald trump won't even make it through the first year of the presidency. donald trump will get impeached. he will quit. 16 years later we may look at him and he is still president. the defier of expectations is the marker. >> it's also how people just haven't learned to stop underestimating him. it's amazing that the predict n predictions will be made when he has shown they are wrong. nobody likes reciting history better than him. he loves to say they said i was not going to run. you know, it's our job to be

skeptical and a lot of skepticism was warranted after he had publicity flirtations in the past and broken a lot of rules of politics in a way that i think we should listen to and reexample whether those were rules in the first place. whether any of this so-called truisms were real or our assumptions were wrong. >> they said he has a year for what the public wants to hear better than washington does. >> he hasn't been in toll ticks, he has been in the business of entertaining people. they are only norms because politicians decide to follow them. we never tested what would happen if a politician said no, i'm not going to do that. i'm not going to follow any of the rules.

i'm going to weet when me to stop and talk off the top of my head. i'm not going to take my security briefings. what donald trump as done is expose the fact that most of the norms we think of are fictional and only stand because of a gentlemen's agreement between politics. >> fascinating. >> i have been wrong more than anybody else this year. >> a lot of people. . >> the of the reason we have been off is he was a potent political force and he changed the rules too. the blue wall existed because he built a coalition that exist and he built a romney campaign and we may have been expecting secretary clinton who i believed had this thing locked up for two years. anybody would have failed

because he is uniquely potent politically. it's interesting because there is something about the idea when barack obama was attacked by john mccain for being too big of a celebrities. there is something about it, our modern presidents whether it's clinton or bush or reagan, this works more often than we realize and we forgot it during trump. >> that's spot on. these were overwhelming figures we are talking about. i think president-elect trump is overwhelming and how he changes his own party. they changed in a fundamental way in becoming the party of trump. the issues and ideologies that they caulked about on spending and reform on domestic front.

these are gone and he changed the game. >> a word that got overused and it's a pot word. this is where donald trump is. the disruptor of our political system. >> he defeated the republican establishment. >> he defeated the bushes and the clintons. both of them. i want to point out that barack obama didn't build that wall. obama held it up. in the mid-terms, they were going for republicans when obama was not on the ballot and the democrats said there is nothing you could do. that's not crew.

>> and what would have thought that he win spinning in his grave, the republican party would be a putinite party to develop an affinity for russia. i'm not sure this is a good for the campaign. >> he does have in common with reagan is the ability to rebuild the military. he promised to rebuild as robust as the times for president reagan. my first boss wrote a book about his grandfather and i think you will see president trump calling president obama a lot. even as kennedy called ike in gettysburg. more often than people realize. i think president obama is showing he is open to that. >> how does it make you feel as a conservative? >> i'm fine with him taking advice with anyone. i'm really fine with that. >> there was a set of models

that got this right. it's our friends in the academic community. the social scientists understood there is sort of historic arks both with our economy and they were at this moment and the keyings to the presidency. he was not alone. a lot of them understood we were in a unique moment combined. it was a lot of things that gave trump an opening. >> there were a lot of models that forecast a clinton win. every year there was a model that gets it right. he is making judgments based on the condition of the parties. it's not pure mundamentials. he was evaluating and not saying

he liked this, but evaluating the continues. what did michael moore get right? >> he called them the brexit states. the number that comes out of this election is that the national polls were right. they were pretty much spot on. >> better than four years ago. >> they predicted she would win the popular vote and she did. he said these three states are uniquely poised. and to walk away from the notion that experts know what they are doing. hillary clinton underperformed in exactly the three states. wisconsin, pennsylvania and michigan. when he was inaugurated, the states are going to expect something more than just a

carrier deal here and a carrier deal there. how is trump going to confront nafta and renegotiate trade policy. can he really promise to bring back jobs, the industrial part of the country that are the rust belt? >>he answer is no. >> i will take away this. nafta, i kept hearing it. i think the clinton campaign and we under estimated the potency. nafta is a five-letter acronym that is a-letter word. coming up, the 2016 campaign didn't just break the rules, it demolished them. what does it mean for the presidency and campaign politics in the near term. you are watching a special edition of "mtp daily" the no.1 choice of dentists. compared to oral-b 7000, philips sonicare flexcare platinum removes significantly more plaque. this is the sound of sonic technology

cleaning deep between teeth. hear the difference? get healthier gums in just 2 weeks vs a manual toothbrush and experience an amazing feel of clean. innovation and you. philips sonicare. save now when you buy philips sonicare.

but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. . >> he referred to my hand fist they are small something else must be small. i guarantee you there is no problem.

i guarantee. moving on. >> that happened at a presidential debate. he was talking about the size of his hands. folk, normally you don't say stuff like that in public and tv. millions of people watching. if you are running for president no less. it's not supposed to be what successful presidential cann candidates say. 2016 was the year where political norms went to die thanks to trump. normally a successful campaign means you win the ad wars. he didn't. you raise more money. he couldn't. you have a unified party. he wouldn't. you stay on message. never. conventions matter. they didn't. debates matter. you can argue he was 0-3. you don't flip flop or take 141 different stances. we counted. you rack up endorsements. the national enquirer doesn't count. you keep the rhetoric in check.

you avoid scandals and not feed them and you do not talk about the size of certain body parts. if you don't do all of those things, u usually you don't win. trump did. the rest is history. panelist back, joy, robert, hugh and molly. what changes might carry forward in a non-trump environment? >> emphasis on candor and being available. secretary clinton never did a truly hostile interview where she sad down with someone like me where you know it will be a conservative coming after you. she did not go into safe zones. she played it from the beginning. trump went everywhere. he invest sifted on doing it from the tower that broke the rules, but everyone had to do

it. he would do it at the beginning, every interview endlessly. that told candidates to engage and answer the question, even if it's not consistent. >> i hope you are right. i worry that's not. >> what hugh said is campaign 101. this year when you showed all the years that were broken. the one rule that was in order to win, you have to campaign. you have to be on the ground in pennsylvania to win pennsylvania. you can't come in with beyonce and jay z and call it a campaign and air wars and ads don't win. that's what i learn and it turns out to be true. >> it's also the case that there is no substitute for a movement. you cannot build through perspiration thaw don't make through inspiration. you can hire the staffers and have them check ought all the boxes and if you don't have people who believe in you who are passionate about you, then

you won't get anywhere. >> i want to know, you better be good. you have work to do. >> you all raise great points and coming back to hughes, i remember in the beginning, you may remember this too. if you wanted to interview one of the 17 republicans running, you would get an e-mail from a staffer saying 6.5 minutes. they give you guidelines of what issues they wanted to talk about. trump for all of his flaws, he would go on the phone forever. why that worked i think in the social media age, i'm no expert, but he saturated. >> he doesn't do that anymore. it has been a while. he hasn't had a press conference since the summer. hillary clinton was more available than donald trump was. she was on the prean and talking to the press on the plane. we have a hemry of being imprinted with how free wheeling

he was. that has changed. now he is on twitter and he gets saturation for everything he does. >> that's the point. the other norm that was broken. the media is no longer the arbitor or the milter. he called her crooked hillary for an hour on television and reinfor reinforces the message on twitter. there is no aspect to the message and no one to refute it and no interviewer to intercede. he can essentially get around the press and i'm sure will continue to do so. >> obviously when a campaign is successful, there are copycats. if we get copycats going down this road, don't we end up with the crudest and world wrestling-like -- if we have two campaigns that engage the way they engage, attacking people and press and personalizing

everything and making everything, what does that do to politics? >> they have become vulgar to use with an old fashioned word. one thing is the core vulgarity doesn't offend americans. we think people are more offended than they are. >> one of the more fascinating twitter discussions that i saw in late december was the idea that historians will not talk about the press coverage. they will look at the donald trump was the result of a culture 30 years in the making. robert? >> yes and no. as much as celebrity drove the populism, the voters i encountered were intrigued and entertained, but it was the economics he had to win.

>> crist american league is a fre kwenlt guest and the most successful campaign was the play by the rules and do everything the right way and do it the old style. he won by 21 points and beat trump in ohio. i don't know that he changed the model forever. >> he was ustr for george w. bush. he said i will run on policy. he was a gentlemen. he was one of the darkest figures we see coming out was when evangelicals who flies in the face. >> i think it was pew that came out and said morality marries. it was difficult for that faction of the right to have any

moral? >> justice scalia is a small part. they knew what was on the ballot and the seat is vacant and they voted the interest, not that. >> does that mean without the opening? do you think then evangelicals would have been less supportive? >> absolutely. 100%. >> i disagree. >> that's fascinating. >> they supported him in the primary. >> they did, but scalia died in january, i believe. >> a lot of the evangelical voters, they knew trump was not one of them. they talked about the cracker, but he was a threat. they saw the state as a threat and he was a hammer to the state. someone who truly disrupted the state on religious liberty fronts and others. >> i don't think you can ignore that trump said he was going to ban all muslims and a lot of people responded to that. a lot of christians who feel christianity is in a holy war with islam.

>> that's very small. >> i met a lot of people like that at trump rallies. u can lock at polls and a majority of voters believe in the muslim ban. donald trump's own campaign said it was one of the most powerful messages and they meant to do it. >> different messages than christians. >> i don't mean that. we are talking about broken political norms. sometimes he did things that are just what you should do which is camp pain 101. he was also himself. he never tried to be someone he wasn't. ultimately the greatest political advice you can get. >> it worked for bill clinton in 1992. it is sort of fascinating to go from gary hart and for having a woman not his wife on his lap.

that's one thing to be dinnered about. if he doesn't need to be a person that is worthy of a bit of reverence. >> evangelicals will say it began with bill clinton. >> for will be difficult for the religious right, the component. they are a black crist man son kerveative. it will be difficult to make a moral case based on having supported donald trump. >> the more raw he got, the more support he found. the men said they can't say what they feel at work. the kids come home from college and can't say what they believe at home. >> what did they want to say? is it on race? >> that is another thing he brought out. they want to be able to voice. >> the academics say you react

to the president who is here. he is the least liked. >> we are going to pause here. we are looking ahead to the next big political fights and we will look at mid-term races and who might be laying the ground work for a run in 2020. that's ahead on this year end edition of "mtp daily."

welcome back from the iowa caucuses to the debates and the conventions, mtp daily hit the road a lot this year. take a look. >> this is mtp daily live from capitol hill and it starts right now. >> maybe the best setting we have ever have. the architectural salvage center. >> special coverage of the iowa caucuses. >> good evening from a snowy manchester. >> good evening, everybody. good afternoon from las vegas. >> live in miami, florida. >> live from buffalo, new york. our hosts are the lovely folks. >> good evening at the red owl taf erp out west and coming to you live from seattle, washington. the other washington. >> live in cleveland, happy hour here in cleveland. inside the arena here, the wells fargo center in philadelphia

where the convention is now officially under way. >> what a location. i'm chuck todd here at the intrepid sea and space museum. >> live on the campus, it is the site of the first presidential debate coming to you live from the university of nevada in las vegas. unlv, home of e running revs. >> in new york city. >> it's the near in gray for my beard as well. much more of this coming up. after the break, we are looking ahead to the mid-term mayhem and beyond and who we will be watching in the new year. first here's a look at some of today's top headlines. oes. incredible bladder protection in a pad this thin, i didn't...

...think it would work, but it does. it's called always discreet for bladder leaks, the super... ...absorbent core turns liquid to gel. i know i'm wearing it but no one else will. always discreet for bladder leaks.

carrie fisher suffered a heart attack while on a plane traveling for london to los angeles. she was rushed to a local l.a. hospital. her condition is reportedly not

good. the actress went into full cart yack arre cardiac arrest. no other information is available and we will keep you updated. back to a special edition of m trtmtp daily. welcome back. just how early will the 2018 mid-term mayhem start. we are 685 days away from election day and you may want to look, way if you are a democrat. it's an excruciating landscape. they are defending just eight seats. for democrats that number is 25 and 10 of those are in states donald trump won in 20 scape. five of those states trump once by close to 20 points. remember these are seats democrats won in 2012 and 2006 and 2000. this cycle has been a democratic

blowout three straight cycles. it may be coming home to roost and there is no barack obama or any popular democrat at the top. a majority for the republicans could be within reach, but what are the politics of 2018 going to look like? it's never too early to start the presidential campaign cycle. the first time without hillary clinton looming large. here's an example of who we could see booking trips to iowa in the near future. warren and sanders and brown and cory booker and kamala harris. al frank in, tim kaine, one of the castro brothers. let's bring back the all-star panel. obviously, robert, you look at the mid-term and you have to look at the party out of power.

it's an opportunity for the democrats, but it's not about washington, but the governor's races. >> it may have to be and fascinating to see how the democrats respond to trump's bait on things like infrastructure. if you are in a red state, how much do you play ball with this administration? senator manchin knowing some of their base likes the trump administration to an extent, but there is so much pressure to the left to not play ball at all. this is an apocalyptic time and you have to fight. >> the great debate. you do what republicans did in 09. lineup against them and let them sink. let them have it. let democrats govern. give it a shot and we will clean up the mess. it was a great strategy. >> the democrats need to learn from the successful and listen to the people who are successful

at politics. if you think about it, i can think of two people. one is mitch connell who came in and had a strategy of holding the talk us together and giving barack obama nothing. the base of a party if you are a party, if you really want to be a political party and not a compromise entity, your base needs to see you fighting. now that they had unified government, the smart move would be to follow the successful strategy. let republicans own it and on the infrastructure, it is basically tax cuts for rich developers. >> they don't know that yet. i hear you. protect medicaid and social security. to defend their base. that's one. the second is harry reid. he gave a lot of advice to the clinton campaign that they didn't take. they wish they would have now. she was trailing hillary clinton in nevada and got in. the smart strategists will hold

together. can chuck schumer? >> democrats like to legislate republicans and run against government. it's a more comfortable place to be. >> these are people on the record eight years ago up in arms about the republican strategy of obstruction saying the president was legitimately election and it doesn't matter if you disagree with him idea logically. it is terrible to not compromise and be constructively and help him achieve his agenda. they will be hypocrites if they employ the mcconnell strategy. >> nothing you say today matters tomorrow. we learned that trump will change his mind in 24 hours. we learned none of the norms apply. nothing you said before matters. this is the new politics. >> let me remind people that right now the red state democrats have to work with trump and all this stuff. we are assuming the mid-term

will look like 10 and 14. i remember the 2006 mid-terms. it was not good to be a republican. there was a republican president. this was not always what you think it is. >> in 2002, w picks up senate seats. one of the rare times. >> ronald reagan had bad 82 and 66. most of the time there is a reason they call it an itch. >> on the national act, we built the red state democrats and they have to vote to rebuild the military. they can't stop. thank you, harry reid for the reed rule. they can't stop the whys or any o pointee. they should not try to obstruct like they did and when they had a filibuster, we have a different world. they should work on defense and obstruct when they can on health care. >> let's move to the governor's races. this is where we will find out. i will do it in a 20 conversation. i had this feeling that i put up

all the people that i didn't put up the nominee. it is possible that it is a predictable name, but maybe it's tim ryan or the outgoing governor of colorado. we don't know. >> that is so spot on. the democratic party in the last ten years has been depleted in the state legislatures and many of the governor's mansions and until the democratic farm team is rebuilt, how the 2018 senators with trump and who is elected democratic national chairman will be really outside questions. the party needs to reclaim its soul. who is in the party? who is in the ranks? >> not only that, but democrats are coming to the realization that what really matters in the election is who controls the secretary of state's office and who has access to vote?

voter suppression is in the hands of the states where you have to be strong and rediscovering grass roots politics and being able to turn out your base. there are opportunities and what's going on in michigan. if those indictments as they get closer and closer to the outgoing governor, that's an opportunity. florida. you have an open seat. gwen graham and two stars. >> even texas. the under written story of 2016 was hillary clinton's remarkable success in texas which was about donald trump flipped the switch on the latino vote that showed up in ways that democrats didn't think was possible. what if they recreated with joaquin castro? >> texas is still a very, very high bar for democrats. >> in the governor's race? >> even president obama saying now he will devote himself to try to build the party down and it's about time for a lot of the democrats that i speak to. they feel he didn't do a lot of

party building in his term. he let the dnc left having run against the establishment to get to where he was. never had a lot of respect for it and the party is not just decimated in the house and senate, but going to the legislature. >> democrats in the house and senate ran from obama like he was on fire in 2010 and 2014. any hope they said no, thank you. i remember covering the race in georgia. they said please do not help me. they didn't want anything to do with him. >> and republicans run away from bush. i get why you do it. >> never smart. >> let me move to the idea, donald trump's success is going to mean non-traditional people think they can run for president. mark cuban is an obvious candidate. duane johnson. i'm not dismissing it. how can you? >> i remember thinking back donald trump went to iowa in

2013. i spoke to him then and said the guy could run. assume nothing. i think you have to take duane the rock johnson. why couldn't it work again? >> i'm with you on kanye, but i will declare it. clooney 2020. he can win. >> actually, you are a clooney fan. you would have a hard time. if clooney ran for governor, i know where you would vote. >> my advice tdemocrats, think ahead to the primary schedule and the debates. republicans learn the hard way they propel candidates in ways you do not know. there is an incentive to run even if you are not serious. the new chairman has to figure out now what are we going to do on scheduling debates. reince priebus deserves to be chief of staff because he got donald trump. >> anybody think there is a

serious challenger to trump in 2020? >> i have no idea. >> it is from the wing of the party. >> rand paul from kentucky. >> almost certainly there will be one. >> almost certainly? >> almost certainly. you can look to one of the disappointed conservatives. >> kasich will cooperate. >> interesting. that was a great conversation. not shocking. you guys will be back in a few minutes. coming up, predictions with a twist. the fun way to look ahead to the first year of the trump presidency. stick around. you have been watching a special edition of m tr"mtp daily" keep here.

♪ as soon as i became a parent i changed as a person, drastically. ♪ i tried hard to quit smoking. ♪ but when we brought our daughter home that was it. ♪ now i have nicoderm cq. the nicoderm cq patch with unique extended release technology helps prevent your urge to smoke all day.

it's the best thing that ever happened to me. can you say thanks nicoderm cq? every great why needs a great how. >> welcome back. perhaps to the chagrin of should have you and the happiness of me, we launched a segment that allows me to share with you the many things i get obsessed with. here are my favorites of the year. >> time now for our new segment we debuted called i'm obsessed with. >> i'm obsessed without ridge. >> empty promises. >> the apocalypse. a zombie apocalypse. >> there is an issue keeping me up at night. how voters get their news. >> how people blockade themselves. >> e-mail. make it stop. >> here's a radal idea. a federal tax. i don't have one obsession.

i have three. the hurricanes, the packers and the dodgers all lose. today i am obsessed with hating the seven-game series. i don't think chicago or cleveland fans could handle more games. i'm obsessed with polls. with election day. that's my super bowl, i have a sort of pump myself up play list. 90, 90, 96 hours to go. i want to be sedated. obsessed with the swingingest swing seat in the country. provisionist history. particularly, the chin stroking about the 2016 election. i'm obsessed with the election blame game. the election is now the ultimate scapegoat for everyone else's troubles. it works for everything. just blame the election. and at progressive, we let you compare

our progressive direct rate... great deals for reals! ...and our competitors' rates side-by-side, so you know you're getting a great deal. saving the moolah. [ chuckles ] as you can see, sometimes progressive isn't the lowest. not always the lowest! jamie. what are you doing? -i'm being your hype man. not right now. you said i was gonna be the hype man. no, we said we wouldn't do it. i'm sorry, we were talking about savings. i liked his way. cha-ching! talking about getting that moneeeey! talking about getting that moneeeey! savings worth the hype. now that's progressive.

savings worth the hype. ♪ savings worth the hype. ♪ see ya next year. this season, start a new tradition. experience the power of infiniti now, with leases starting at $319 a month. infiniti. empower the drive.

tadirectv now. stream all your entertainment! anywhere! anytime! can we lose the 'all'. there's no cbs and we don't have a ton of sports. anywhere, any... let's lose the 'anywhere, anytime' too. you can't download on-the-go, there's no dvr, yada yada yada.

stream some stuff! somewhere! sometimes! you totally nailed that buddy. simple. don't let directv now limit your entertainment. only xfinity gives you more to stream to any screen. welcome back. time for "the lid ". the panel is still with us. joy, robert, hugh, and molly. we're going to do a little fun twist today on the idea or predictions for the year to come. i'm more of a gambler. we enjoy gambling with fake money. it's over/unders for 2017. first up, trump's approval rating over/under july 4th? hugh, i'll start with you. in the new world, i think 45% is your baseline. july 4th, over/under? >> under. he will not be able to deliver with the rapidity his base insists. and i think he'll do an immigration overhaul. >> over/under 45 july 4th?

>> i learned about a year and a half ago never to predict what lies ahead for donald j. trump and that is a firm policy at this point. i feel like it could be 80, it could be 20, i have no idea. >> all right, 45 -- >> i think if there are mass otests on the border and jeff session becomes a vilified figure, it will be under. but if he moves fast on immigration and trade and gets jobs back and have a lot of carrier, theet at riblg event, it might be over. >> i think under. democrats, he's never going to get better than 10%. it's going to be very difficult to get much over. >> i think it all depends on the sequencing, right? it all depends on how he sequences capitol hill. if he sequences it with the easy republican stuff -- >> and ryan's getting it ready. ryan has a stack of bills that's been sitting there for years. >> and privatizing medicare,

that's not going to be helpful to trump or the republican party. >> all right, let's move to the next one, over/under, reince priebus as chief of staff, six months. >> i think he will still be there, so over, but toughest job in washington. bannon's kind of on an island in the operation as chief strategist. reince has to make the place run. and trump is someone who has so many lines coming into him, phone, conversations, controlling that will be exceedingly difficult. we'll have to see. >> all right. six months, over/under on paribas, chief of staff? >> i think over. trump needs somebody who can talk to capitol hill. what about you? >> way over. i think reince has overestimated. he's had a terrific run as chairman of the rnc. the debate perform, the schedule reform, moving the convention up. he's got the perfect personality for a four-year chief of staff. very jim bakerish in terms of his calmness.

so i am very high on reince. >> wow! no chief of staff can usually get by after 18 months. >> on the one hand, reince got where he is by being table to manage and put up with and ride the roiling seas of trump world. but on the other hand, he used to be in a position that trump couldn't fire him. that's not the case now, and i don't think he has the same personal closeness to trump as other people in the inner circle. there may be a time when somebody has to go under the bus. >> we'll see. again, it all depends, how is that relationship with ryan, what it looks like with congress. all right, our next one is, the number of cabinet picks that don't make it. obviously, confirmation hearings begin in mid-january, some may lead into february. we'll put it at 0.5, meaning, do you believe it will be one or none? >> i think there could be one. i think democrats are going to pick one of these cabinet fights -- >> what's the best one to do message wise? >> for the base of the party, it's smart to oppose sessions. sessions is such an anathema

to -- >> a harder one to beat. >> yeah, that's voting rights and everything the party stands for. if they don't fight it, i'm not sure why they're democrats. >> do you think one survives? >> i think a lot of it will depend on what comes out. it all depends on republicans. they're the ones that have the votes. and it will be hard for them to oppose these nominees simply on ideology, but if something comes out in the background of one of these nominees, that may give an excuse -- >> the first transition with the reid rule. and therefore, i don't think they get any absent. there's not great vetting going on. they don't have a team of lawyers. if they screw up and miss a court filing or miss an arrest, it could -- >> i'm going to speed it up here. go, quick. >> rex tillerson, if republicans break, they're uncomfortable with him on russia, he could be the one to fall in spite of all the accolades he's gotten from the establishment. >> i think mnuchin's most vulnerable, that's mine. by the way, every transition has one. it's all about housing and memging. dow, 25,000, 15,000. what's more likely? >> 25,000. >> december 31st, you're not

going to bet on stocks, are you? >> for the sake of my 401(k), i hope it's the over. >> i think wall street's going wild with these -- >> will they keep it up? >> between 20 and 25 because of the prospect of getting rid of all the regulations. >> right, i think this is a quite plutocratic administration with so many wall street guys in it. it's going to be a bubble, though. >> i have two more and i'll do them fast. nights th nights that trump spends in trump tower in 2017. 45, over/under, molly? >> you've got to be fast for me now. >> sure. over. >> over over. >> over over. >> i think he's going to be in new york and mar-a-lago a lot. >> you can't throw mar-a-lago in there, though. >> way over. >> i think i'm going to be the contrarian and go way under. i think once he's in the home office, he's going to realize, oh, wow, why should i go anywhere? anyway, what a terrific panel! joy, robert, hugh, molly, you guys were the, in my sense, four of my favorite people to have

on. thank you very much. i appreciate it. >> have a great end of the year. >> stay with us throughout the hour. that's all for this special year-end edition of "mtp daily." you can watch us every weeknight at 5:00 p.m. right here on msnbc. sundays, of course, on the network. happy holidays, happy new year, merry christmas, happy hanukkah from all of us at "mtp daily." bye-bye. when it was all said and done -- >> we have seen a brand-new way of looking at and thinking about this electoral map. >> what was solid blue for a generation -- >> this is a white working class path to the presidency. >> turned red overnight. >> we won michigan, pennsylvania, and we won wisconsin. >> and though hillary clinton won the national popular vote by more than 2 1/2 million people, in the end, just 80,000 votes across three states was enough for trump. tonight, we return to the state that put the republican over the top, with the senator who won wisconsin in the primary looking for answers. >> there are a lot