you see what's happening and we're right on track. thank you everybody. ♪ still crazy after all these years ♪ >> and that's all the time we have today for "morning joe," thank you so much for tuning you. hope you and your family -- >> what was that? if you're a little kid and you're scared of rabbits -- >> oh, i've got to call my daughter. >> call your daughter in a minute. >> willie geist, you are pretty much the expert o of combining rabbits and white house ceremonies. >> that's the season premier of "veep." he was doing the easter egg roll, he was hosting it but went into a speech about how his administration was going. there was nowhere for the easter

bunny to hide. >> the bunny was clapping, mike barnicle. there was a lot of choreography here, awkward choreography, bunny clapping, melania, reminding donald to put his hand over his heart. a lot of interesting things going on here. we'll be picking this apart for the next three hours. >> one of the greatest presidential picres of all time -- i don't know whether we can find it in our easter bunny archives is president george w. bush hugging the easter bunny. >> bush, he just goes there, mark halperin. >> i assume vice president mike pence looked at that picture and realized he needs to rush home. that could be the ticket. >> we have a split screen -- >> we do? >> mike pence with his steely gaze peering over into north korea on one end of the world. >> in a bomber jacket.

>> in a bomber jacket. >> how about we just visualize it. >> i want to see the split screen at some point. >> the president was assuring everyone that everything is good. everything is on track. despite the easter bunny's approval there nodding, there's polling that shows voters may not agree with that. and voters in georgia may prove that point today. a democrat is looking to knock off a crowded field of republicans in a special election that could spell trouble down the line for the gop. good morning everyone. it's tuesday, april 18th. with us we have veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle, senior political analyst for nbc news and nbc mark halperin. let's get to the polling. the bunny says one thing. who knows? it could be spicy in there. >> just curious. my gut reaction would be that

his numbers would have gone up a good bit this week. >> right, i did think so. >> wouldn't that be everybody else's impression? >> yes. >> grownups come in, starting to tweet less fran at cetically. >> it's interesting. we had paul simon's "still crazy after all these years." i fear it may do some damage one fine day. there may be some damage that's been done that's going to be a lot harder for him to walk back, willie, than just having a good week or two. >> specifically the strike in syria, because, as everyone here knows, historically a show of military force especially in that case was viewed as a humanitarian strike against the chemical weapons attack everyone saw. you would think that would give him a couple points here and there. but as mika is about to show us, he's flat. >> new polling from gallup has

the president's approval rating at 40%, essentially the same as february. his numbers are sinking on key characteristics. 45% think the president keeps his promises. that's down 17 points in two months. 52% say he's a strong and decisive leader, a drop of seven. 46% say he can bring about the changes the country needs, down seven points. just 36% say he's honest and trustworthy, down six points. 42% say he cares about people like you, down four. and 41% believe he can manage the government effectively. at the same time, a pew research poll finds the president's job approval hovering around 39%, well below the popularity of his predecessors at similar points in their presidency. >> obama was at 61, bush 55, clinton 49, bush 56, reagan 67. >> he had a rating of --

approval rating of 39%, relatively low disapproval number compared to trump, 54%, talking about president clinton. >> let's talk about these numbers, mark halperin, your maris poll that you so ably ran had donald trump at 39%. i was skeptical of that poll to be honest with you. i thought he was going to -- i thought after things shook out he would be around 32, 33, 34%. but that's just dead on with pew and gallup and these other polls. >> the polling is pretty consistent. just under 40 or just at 40. as mika just showed, that's worse than other presidents at this point. you think he would have gotten a bounce. i think the lack of change in washington, lack of progress in washington is what's holding his approval rating down. people looked at his style during the campaign and a lot of

americans said that's an unorthodox style -- >> he'll get it done and he said health care would be easy, mike. he failed on health care. the tax code is bogging down now. >> the muslim ban. >> the failing "new york times," subscription is way up since donald trump was president of the united states say he's now the tax code. he's stumbling on tax reform. you're right, the travel ban. >> didn't get it done. >> held up in the courts. >> two things. mark just pointed out one of the things. the level of expectation among voters on both sides is, okay, fine, he'll get something done, something will happen. nothing really has happened. the other thing i feel is harder to get to, and you pick it up anecdotally, and it's almost a cosmetic issue. people are sort of disappointed that he's not acting more like a president -- >> so you remember one month in,

i came here and said i called 14 of my friends in florida that supported him. every one of them, except one, still supported him, it's great what he's doing with the press, it's great, sticking it to everybody, right? >> they're from the part of florida that came through for trump. >> that's not what they're saying now. a lot of them are telling me i'm just not watching anymore. >> sick of the tweets. >> this is interesting. they tuned him out. i'm not watching. this is something he doesn't understand. i'll say it flat out, he doesn't understand. every president has a sell-by date. i remember being shocked that six years in in 1986 ronald reagan was giving a pitch on getting relief, on giving aid to el salvador rebels. he would have sold that in a second in 1981. by '86 people were tuning him

o out. they all have a sell-by date. barack obama's may have been five or six years in. his speech wasn't the same as in 2009. donald trump, by giving so much and tweeting so much and being so ma nye cal about being in the press every second has already burned out some supporters. >> it's put some light on a lot of bad things -- things that haven't gone well. put the lights on for everyone to see, and i don't know how many days into the presidency -- >> what you pick up is he has accelerated the pace of exhaustion among people. >> i also think they're looking at nothing getting done. >> i'd love to see everyone measure it, but we all think this is the most intense 90 days that we've seen. people want results. if he gets results, he can get

some of these people back. 90 days of exhausting people and having a supreme court nomination to show for it. >> the number on keeps promises tells the whole story. in february, 52% say he keeps his promise, now only 45%. back in february, we were talking about the travel ban, health care, we said you can be angry, but you can't be shocked because this is exactly what he talked about during the campaign. now he didn't do any of those things. those things didn't make it through. now he's changed his tone a little on china, something his supporters love. i think a lot of people are thinking right now all those big, bold promises, we thought he would be the guy to come and change washington and he hasn't done it. >> mika, all the things around this table we warned him about in november and december, they're all on tape, and all in the transcript. this is not monday morning quarterbacking. we warned him every day, don't

pick fights with the intel community, don't pick unnecessary fights with the press, don't insult the senate minority leader. don't go to paul ryan's district and mock him and say you'll support him until you decide not to. winning in washington is hard enough without picking unnecessary fights every day. you know who he really needs to be talking to right now on north korea? the guy who warned him that north korea was going to be his most difficult problem, barack obama. he can't do that because he's been so reckless and irresponsible, with a tweet that he did on a saturday morning and he didn't have the character to take it back and step back. so he's insulted everybody from the 44th president to great britain to all of our allies. >> hold on one second. what i was going to say was, to

your point, i actually disagree. i don't think people are tuning out. i think they're tuning in. if you're saying sales of "the new york times" are up and are tv ratings up? i think they are. i think people are watching closely and like me, they're really disappointed. some of them are less disappointed but they're disappointed. i think the lights are on with this presidency. it would be really great for trump if they would tune out just a tad bit. >> i'm saying his core supporters that were there all the time and online and fighting for him and watching tv all the time are all going, wait a second, why am i fighting for this guy all the time when he keeps stepping on political land mines? >> that's right, that's right. >> you mentioned something very interesting and intriguing -- >> the first time that has happened in ten years. can we get the confetti from the ceiling? >> the lack of communication,

obviously, with former president barack obama. what you pick up anecdotally and listen to conversations with people is a lot of people seemingly -- they're not indicting him, not contemptuous of him. they represent the vast middle. they're sick and tired of his referencing the election. he won the election, stop talking about the election, stop talking about how you won, stop talking about the electoral college you're president, act like the president. >> the guy also -- the guy said that he had won the most electoral votes of any republican like in history or something like that. it ends up -- peter baker looked into it quickly, other than george w. bush in 2000, he actually won the least number of electoral votes of any republican president going back

to rutherford b. hayes. people are picking up on this stuff, too. he keeps saying things that aren't true. he was running against hillary clinton who he told even more falsehoods, according to the american people. he's not running against hillary clinton anymore. he's running against himself. >> and then there's this. treasury secretary steve mnuchin is pushing back on a timeline for a tax reform bill. he said failure to reach a deal on health care means having tax legislation on the president's desk by august is, quote, not realistic. august was his original goal. municipality mnuchin says the end of the year is his peks take achlgts "the new york times" says fixing the tax code is not likely. the paper says democrats have

pledged not to cooperate in rewriting tax laws until they know how those revisions might financially benefit the president personally. here is white house press secretary sean spicer explaining why the president is keeping his financials under wraps. >> the president is under audit. it's a routine one. it continues. and i think that the american public know clearly where he stands, something he made clear during the election cycle. hold on. the one time it was done, i think the people understand how successful the president has been and how much he's paid in taxes. it's the same -- we're under the same audit that existed, so nothing h changed. >> you always talk about, well, under the audit. is it time to say once and for all the president is never going to release his tax returns? >> we'll have to get back to you on that. >> i mean really? >> really. >> so he may? >> i said i'd have to get back to you on that. i think he's still under audit.

the statement still stands. >> now republican lawmakers are increasingly getting an earful from constituents in their home districts over the issue. here is senator tom cotton in arkansas yesterday. >> my question is you in congress and the senate have the power to subpoena these tax returns. the president said during the campaign that he would not release the tax returns while he was under audit. now he says the election has happened and he doesn't need to release his tax returns. i'm wondering if you'll take the initiative to have him release those returns so we can see what kinds of connections he has with different countries around the world and what -- [ cheers and applause ] -- and what tax proposals would

personally benefit him and his family. >> as far as i'm aware the president says he's still under audit. [ booing ]. >> if you're under audit for a specific year, say you're under audit for your taxes filed in 2009, 2010, and you're filing your taxes today for the last calendar year, the audit ds t followou through the years i thin i'm pretty sure. i'm really certain the audit does not follow you -- >> it's an exhausting charade. you can see it on the faces of tom cotton and sean spicer yesterday. they don't have an answer to the question. more than a year ago the irs came out and said we can't say anything about donald trump's taxes, but nothing prevents an individual from releasing his own taxes, especially -- this is during the campaign, when he's

running for president of the united states. we want to know who he is, what his business interests are. no one buys this argument, like the people in little rock yesterday. >> we'll be talking throughout the morning about the special election in georgia. we'll see what happens in georgia. it's a republican district. the republicans should win, but it's going to be close. we think it's going to be close. but i will tell you, if for some reason the democrats pull off a big upset there, and i know how this works, you're going to have a lot of members of congress looking at the white house, and in the future when they see republicans starting to lose special elections, if they do, they're going say, you know what? i think you may be right, i think maybe he should release his taxes. i don't care if my brother were president of the united states. if i were in tom cotton's position, i would say, you're

right, she shouhe should releass taxes. >> you've had joni ernst saying he should release them. he could release his charitable deductions. the pressure is big now. in the past, presidents have released their returns and so it only heightens the fact that he hasn't done it. if the democrats win, people won't be over reaching. >> joe, would you need a democratic win in georgia tomorrow to be in tom cotton's position and see that he's in a really bad position? >> tom cotton is in a horrible position. i salute tom cotton for, unlike

other constituen others who will hiding from their constituents. i'm different. i would say he should release his tax returns. but republicans i understand right now, they don't want to cause a break between themselves and their president this early in the terms. but i don't put it on tom cotton so much as i do on donald trump. putting all these republicans in a terrible position where if theyay something that seems pretty obvious, they're being disloyal to their president 80 days in. >> how would you like to be steve mnuchin and gary cohen trying to figure out how to navigate a tax reform package. >> looks like it's not going to happen. what about donald trump telling the "wall street journal," one of the most surprising things, we've got to get health care right. it's like nap pollian saying i've got to go back to water loo. the first time -- i didn't get the feel of the town, the

smells, the sights, the stinging of gunpowder enough the first time i collapsed. i'm going back again. >> all right. still ahead on "morning joe," president trump reportedly congratulates -- >> no, don't do it. >> turkey's leader for a referendum. >> he's not turkey's leader. >> he's turkey's tyrant. >> to many of our allies. >> he stole the election. there needs to be a recount and yet trump is congratulating a guy who are stealing an election and seizing power for another decade. >> wow. we'll talk about that with the former u.s. ambassador to nato, doug loop. plus "wall street journal's" carol leon set. and atlanta mayor kasim reed on the special election north of the city. that's where we find nbc's kasie hunt. her reporting straight ahead. >> as we go to break, a split

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go to xfinity.com/myaccount >> voters in georgia's sixth congressional district -- >> in my life, that quote. >> the gettysburg address quote? >> if that's what you want to call it. >> we've got to do the news. voters in georgia's sixth congressional district casting their vote on a referendum on president trump. nbc news capitol hill correspondent kasie hunt. >> didn't she do that extraordinarily well? >> go to bed early and wake up early. >> watch that. kasie hunt has been on the ground in georgia for the past few days. you do it better. toss it to casey.

>> ca >>. >> /* we are done in suburban atlanta which frankly no one expected to be the first major battleground for democrats as they try to take on president trump. it's a hugefield. there are 18 candidates, 11 republicans, five democrats. one of those democrats is closer to getting 50% and winning this race outright than anybody ever expected. ♪ little boxes on the hillside ♪ little boxes on the hillside >> he grew up in this district's sleepy suburbs, a soft-spoken walkie millennial. but john os supp has become the face of the resistance, taking on the president democrats loathe. >> this is the first chance in the country to stand up and make a statement. >> more than $8.3 million has

poured in from all over the country, dozens of volunteers have flown from as far as berkeley, california, to help. >> samuel l. jackson cut an ad for him. >> we have to channel the great vengeance and furious anger we have for this administration into votes. >> president trump is attacking him. >> ossoff will raise your taxes, destroy your health care and flood our country with illegal immigrants. >> all over just one seat in the house, the special election to replace tom price, now president trump's hhs secretary. >> do you feel like you've become the vessel for the hopes and dreams of democrats all over the country who can't stand donald trump? >> well, this thing has taken on a little bit of a life of its own, but all politics is local. >> he comes across as an unlikely hero, mocked in an attack ad for dressing up as lance solo in college. >> now he's carefully scripted.

>> there are many in the community here who have concerns about the direction of things in washington right now, and i am among them. >> ossoff needs 50% o the vote to avoid a june wit some of the other 17 candidates in the race. >> it's going to be very close. >> former georgia secretary of state carol handle is the leading republican. >> national democrats seem to have pinned their hopes and dreams on this district. is that how it feels every day here in this campaign? >> i think so. they're going to be disappointed i think. >> his rise took national republicans by surprise. this is newt gingrich's own seat, and in 2016 tom price won re-election by more than 20 points. president trump barely beat hillary clinton here, falling behind with college educated republicans who are opposing him again. >> i voted for ossoff.

a message sent by me and others. i do think that. >> reporter: democrats hoping the district and the country will follow. so a couple of questions as we head into today first. it seems like here on the ground, ossoff may have overplayed his hand a little bit. there's a sense that this race has gotten out of the borders of the district. as you know, skbroe, if you get too far from home, it can be dangerous. there's a sense that may have damaged his chances of getting to 50% here. i will say you can feel the energy around ossoff here on the ground. the campaign offices we went to yesterday were packed, they were towing cars from the parking lot. it's very clear there's a lot of energy around him. i think the question going forward, what does this mean in the broader context? do democrats have a real chance at taking back the house in 2018. there are things in this district that republicans should have picked up on and thought,

okay, they might have a referendum on donald trump here. i think he's right, it can make a lot of republicans in washington very nervous. >> casey lunt, great job. >> this is like all or nothg. if republicans lose, it's terrible for donald trump. if democrats lose, then this is a seat that donald trump -- an area that donald trump only won by one point. willie, i remind you of the same thing, we were at yonkers raceway, we were down for the day and had to put all of our money in the last race. >> on the trotters. >> on santa's little helper's help her. if we had lost that day -- >> some guys waiting for us in the parking lot. it wasn't going to be good. >> there wasn't going to be a

meet across the river. we weren't going to get there. this is all or nothing. >> it's fascinating because it is such a republican district, as kasie said in the piece. but mitt romney won by 23, 24 pounts points /* points. yes, it's a big deal if he loses but i don't think it will be a huge shocker. it's not like they love donald trump in that county to begin with. >> kasie is like the political reporter to watch, kasie hunt. >> i agree with that. i want to say again, you're the best. >> no. oh, my god, stop. >> you're the best. you know you are. mark halperin, we can't explain this away. it's a long story, folks. mark halperin, if i'm a political reporter and i see

republicans end up winning this seat, that he doesn't get 50% here and he loses in the runoff, there's only one way to score this as a massiveti d loss in a district that trump only won by one point. that means you have not made one percentage point of progress through all the chaos of the first 100 days. it's a huge win for democrats, a huge win or a huge loss. >> tonight there's only two possible outcomes, the guy wins, we have a runoff. >> if the guy gets over 50, that's massive. >> no republican is going to get over 50. the best republicans can do is force a runoff. if they do, we'll have between now and june, the test of exactly what we're going to be talking about, this guy is a strong candidate, raised a tn of money. the resistance is going to have to keep flooding into his district and try to win it.

they'll face a potential backlash again, as she said, of outside money coming in. this is the test. there's not another election any time soon that will be seen rightly so as a huge test. if they can't win in this highly educated district around atlanta, then democrats, even with donald trump's numbers the way they are, they're not surging -- >> we've got to say it right now and i heard from a lot of democratic leaders yesterday, the democratic party failed. they failed in the leadup to this. there are all the people marching in the streets. there's not a ground game like you would expect. i've got to say even his office when they were interviewing him, that didn't look -- this should look like a presidential campaign. this is huge for democrats. why they haven't marshalled the resources and had people flooded in there knocking on doors. >> they've got a lot there. >> he's raised money from o outside the district. you win in these special

elections by knocking on doors, dragging people out of their homes, putting them in cars, driving them there. i'veked to a lot of people on the ground, democrats, who say their party hasn't done -- >> speaking of elections in june, theresa may has called for a surprise election on june 8th to seek support for her brexit move. >> okay. ahead in our 7:00 hour, we'll bring in "washington post's" robert costa with liss reporting on the atlanta story ahead. he's correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984. now he's predicting president trump will be impeached. author and historian allan lichtman joins is ahead. "new york times" tim route ten berg -- >> nobody believed him. he was right. >> i don't think he's the only one who feels that way. >> talking about donald trump winning the election. nobody believed him. >> i know. lesson in moscow about trump

style alternative truth. that's coming up on "morning joe." where's jack? he's on holiday. what do you need? i need the temperature for pipe five. ask the new guy. the new guy? jack trained him. jack's guidance would be to maintain the temperature at negative 160 degrees celsius. that doesn't sound like jack. actually, jack would say, hey mate, just cool it to minus 160 and we're set. good on ya. oh yeah. that's jack.

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. >> the national anthem was played at the white house today. president trump forgot to put his hand on his heart. take a look at melania there. >> she's like, just pretend you have one and put your hand over it. >> up next, jim route ten berg said he wanted to learn something ability america, so he went to russia to learn it. "new york times" columnist joins us next to explain. "morning joe" is coming right back. whoa, this thing is crazy.

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with us now, "new york times" columnist and contributor to "the new york times" jim rutenberg. >> no tie? what's up. >> oh, stop.

>> you look just like joe, sloppy. no, you look good. >> you write in the "new york times" about a less con in moscow about trump style alternative truth. i wanted to better understand trump's america, a place where truth is being ripped from its moorings. journalists as dishonest enemies of the people, so i went to russia. as soon as i turned on the television hear i wondered if i had arrived through an alt right worm hole. back in the states the prevailing notion in the news is that syrian president bashar al assad had indeed been responsible for the chemical strike. there was some report taj from sources like the conspiracy theorists that it was a false flag by terrorist rebel gruls to goad the u.s. into attacking mr. assad. that was a view from the fringe. here in russia it was the dominant theme throughout the

overwhelmingly state-controlled mainstream media. >> there is a connection. ann coulter a couple days ago said assad was one of the best leaders in the region. i'm dead serious here. so there is a linkage between some people here on the alt right and russia. they're saying the same exact thing. >> you have to wonder, first of all -- now realizing, i've got to stay on top of my alex jones. wow, right? >> so you go to russia and get to see what it looks like if the fantasy we hear about, somelt right types and even president trump's rhetoric, you see it play out. it's a very different place. >> is vladimir putin, do you think he's happy with what has happened in the election and what is happening now within our media? >> they have to be thrilled. what we have -- this situation,

and what i realize friday being there, it plays to his strengths rather than our striebs. in spied of all of our mistakes, we have our credibility. our credibility comes from a free press that vets its president you get into an international crisis situation where all the news is questionable, there is no truth. then it's our word against them. it's the relativism that putin thrives on. >> what's the perception of donald trump in russia as it comes through that prism of the media that you studied over there? what do they think about drum there? >> here is what's interesting, almost out of 1984 where ash anna is at war with east asia. the state media was very much with donald trump, as we know. it flipped and it flipped hard. so sean spicer's comments on the holocaust centers, they went crazy with that in state media. >> they turned on trump a little bit? >> not a little bit. a lot bit. >> you learn that he sort of shot himself in the foot because when he needs the media, he's

undermined it so much, it's not working exactly the way this president was hoping. >> they literally threw it back in his face. when he tried to fight back -- when the russians were questioning the reason for the tomahawk strikes, the white house released through the press some intelligence and some arguments that even russia might have even know about this, that syria certainly did this. they said, oh, the american press is fake. we know this is a big problem in the united states and president trump is right. they used his own argument against him. it doesn't serve him. >> what's interesting, jim, and you've been charting this very closely, a lot of people have been very concerned about donald trump, freedom of the press, i think it was the times that wrote an article that said -- i think it was the times, once again, donald trump cannot change the first amendment. he can't change "new york times" v sullivan. the first amendment will remained the first amendment. score how the press has done in the first 80 days against donald

trump. i heard all of these things fwhn trump was being inaugurated, that jurchlists would be dragged off to jail, beat ton and shot. the failing "new york times" is up. i will say cnn and msnbc's ratings way up. "morning joe's" ratings, way up. everybody is way up it look like donald trump has always empowered the people he hates. >> www.newyorktimes, click the subscribe button. >> seriously. donald trump by attacking the press has helped the press so much. >> agreed. first of all -- >> in terms of money. this isn't sort of a general -- >> and maybe fundamentally. we'll see how long this lasts. one thing that's heartening from russia is this, we have the tradition of a free press. i agree this presidency so far,

i think the press has been very strong. a lot of things people fear haven't come to past. >> we have to stay vigilant. mike barnicle, you've been around, you've seen an awful lot. you can look at this report card, the first 80 days, the press, check. that institution has held first. the courts, check. challenged by the president, its legitimacy, held firm. congress, the president said he was going to roll over congress. check. they have held firm. the institutions of this united states, the cia which he said he was going to gut and his first national security adviser was going to gut and politicize the intel community, check. they have held firm. this is now how homeland ended this season. it's quite the opposite. >> judicial branch, legislative branch, big winners. no one has been a bigger winner i think than the media. validated in the past 90 days.

my question to you is, were you able to get any sense among people in moscow of the level of impact that state-run media has on them? >> moscow is very kos poll tin place and there it's sort of like, yes, we know the state media says x. state media is the power. television is the power. president trump realizes this too. the television is the most powerful medium and fully >> you made the point russian media portrayal of trump has changed significantly since election. case in point, according to top russian tv prop began dis, donald trump is more dangerous than the leader of north korea. called trump, quote, more impulsive and more inpredictable than kim jong-un. that was followed by a warning from russia's foreign minister that a unilateral strike on

pyongyang would be a dangerous course of action. >> he also happens to be a state employee. works for propaganda arm. that is coming right out of -- right from the top. >> then what did vladimir putin get out if he did in fact tamper with election as secretary of state and everyone else has said out loud. >> what did he get out of it. >> depends what you want. what does russia thrive on. if you see the current administration, chaos. they strive on chaos. did he expect to have someone do the bidding or did he expect someone to set. >> all he has done is, i believe, helped strengthen our institutions, made americans more hostile towards russia, take a closer look at all the journal itselvf sists he's assa and countries he's invaded and planes he's shot down. i don't know. i'm not the first person to say

this, but vladimir putin master mind. this may have been a chess move he didn't want to make. it's not ending too well for him. >> people there in state realm complained to me about donald trump, i said, you delivered him. it was a joke. it didn't go over well. critics see signs of interference in french vote. >> same dynamic there in terms of france and russia media and hacking. how do you connect for people who watch rt here. how do you can he think the with the media you saw. is that all russian owned, russian controlled? are they all prop began dis and. >> they are completely state

funded. some kind of level of independence, but it was the same thing. their coverage was the same as i saw in russian. >> myad warned me. >> coming up at the t of the hour. gop identity crisis. that's how "the washington post" describes special election in georgia. join us live from atlanta with more and bring in nbc kristen welker from the white house with what that race means for the president's agenda. a millie dresselhaus doll! happy birthday, sweetie! oh, millies. trick or treat! we're so glad to have you here. ♪ what if we treated great female scientists like they were stars? ♪

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you know what everyone is talking about? the white house easter egg roll. it happened today. really cute. little miniature podium kids could pretend to be trump's press secretary. the winner got candy. loser got the job. actually the easter bunny that was at the white house went viral because of the face it was making. look at this. it's true. it's real. that's the expressions americans have had for about 100 days. >> if you look at the latest polls, he might be right. welcome back to morning joe. tuesday april 18.

white house correspondent for the wall street journal, carol lee and from atlanta. political analyst, robert costa. goo to have you on board. >> speaking of the easter bunny. alex, the genius. came up with my favorite photo. >> oh. >> so who is in the costume. >> we don't know. could be sean spicer. he did it one year. i don't know if that was the year. >> easter bunnies like that are not furries? right? there's a difference. >> definitely. >> come on. >> very important distinction. >> it's an important distinction. >> don't use words you don't understand. >> no, it's not. the easter is sweet representation of wonderful holiday. definitely not a furry. hey, there's new polling. >> i still don't get that whole thing. >> you know what, we got kids. they got conventions for things like that and let's just leave

it there. we're not going to explain it this morning at 6:58. we've got kids. >> that's true. >> hey, kids. how are you. we're now going to get off the topic. i want to ask a serious question though. >> why is it that most santa claus, you're here, and, you know, this. this is the beat you cover for the wall street journal sgll she has a four-year-old boy. >> she understands this. why is it that santa claus is such a lovely beloved figure and the easter bunny always carries with it sort of this aura of creepnessiness. >> we d't know what is happening under that mask. something is sweating under

there. hard. the glasses are just weird. i don't know. >> you're asking the same question i'm asking, but you're not letting me ask it. >> we're not bringing that other stuff into it like you are. are you accusie ining carol lee doing that. she's not talking about that. >> i went through pittsburgh once and there was a convention of furries. >> wait. i'm sorry. they came out. >> tell me. >> they came out and they were waiving. >> they were waiving a lot te i motorcade. >> nobody was exposed or anything like that. >> which candidate. >> this was president obama. he was going to pittsburgh for an event. >> now to willie geist. he's got new polling. >> i want to know more. >> we've got more polling. president's approval rating at 40%. essentially the same as back in february. >> that's surprising. >> his numbers are sinking in key areas.

>> if you are is m coming off that rabbit. >> 45% think president keeps promise. 52% say a strong and decisive leader. 46% say he can bring about the changes the country needs. that's down 7 points as well. >> holes are being cut right in the middle of that. >> 36% say he's honest and trustworthy down six points. 42% say he cares like people like you. down 4. 41% believe he can manage the government effectively. >> that's not good. >> at the same time. research polls finds job approval hovering around 39%. well below the popularity of predecessors at similar points in pregnancy. since ronald reagan in 1981, only bill clinton had an approval rating below a majority. he had a relatively low disapproval number compared to trump's 54%. >> look at numbers. put them up. driving in the car right now.

reagan, 67 approval. 18 case approve. bush, 89, bush 55, 27. obama 61, 26. donald trump 39 approve, 54 disapprove. this is his torque and after this past week, you would expect it to get a little better. right now, it's not. i do believe he came to the proper conclusion. the right conclusion in the first hour, he has exhausted his supporters and swing voters. >> no doubt about that. just talking to people t level of exhaustion. part of it might be bob costa. you get the sense out in country it's his constant referencing to the last election.

keep referencing the past. there's in electricity among democrats for sure i'm picking up here. in the atlanta suburbs. also a disappoint. there's failure on health care. skeptical about whether it can be revived in the coming weeks and months. republican according to voters i've met with over the last 24 hours. want to know where is the administration going in terms of legislation and the sweeping change that president trump promised on the campaign trail. whereas democratics seem pretty disorganized and i've been poking arnd. they now seem to have their act together. >> carol lee, part of the exhaustion also has to do with the flip-flops. not figures out where he is. you had an extraordinary interview with him where he flip-flopped on nato. flip-flopped on health care reform. coming right back at it.

a stunning flip-flop. china. what's the currency manipulator now. not a currency manipulator now. janet yellen was bad. you had to be sitting in there not believing what your were hearing. the guy is flip-flopping so much. that too is exhausting for supporters. >> but filled with stars. get out immediately. also talked about the dollar and janet yellen. this to me is the big problem he has. lack of confidence he's going to do. that really starts to build. that's going be increasing problem for him. what you're seeing is he's flipping on positions like nato and china and currency manipulation and those things. and that's one set and that's created a nartive. even areas he's not flipping e he's not getting things done. that creates a preexception he's ineffective. he's not necessarily flipping on wanting to build the wall. he said that is going to get

done. it might not. real questions about the funding. it's a number of ways in which he's not getting traction on his agenda. >> bob costa, republicans had a north star they followed and everything led to a balanced budget. water gate class in 74. everything led to government reform. that's what it was about. republicans have taken over washington, d.c. on one promise. that have is repealing obamacare. itasn't repealing and replacing. it was just repealing obamacare. and here we are, they failed again. how much is that impacting voters. >> that's a good insight joe. it's interesting to be here in atlanta f. you think about it, 94, who led that revolution. newt gingrich. this was his district.

you look at districts and you had a movement of conservatism that guided republicans. been the loan star for republicans in places like tlant suburbs for a long time. you don't have that ideology at the center. not about purity and about a certain agenda or set of principals. everyone is unsure it seems in the field about what it means to be a republican. that's the overriding question in the trump era. seems this point. without an idealogical blueprint. everyone is trying to find the formula that works. >> voters in georgia. head to the polls this mornings. to cast vote in that special election that's becoming sort of a referendum on president trump. the president is tweeting this

morning. bad for jobs. wants higher taxes. say no followed by republicans must get out today and vote in georgia. force runoff and easy win. raise your taxes very bad on crime and second amendment. the president also recorded a robo call urging georgia voters to defeat. >> hello. this is president donald trump. liberal democrats from outside of georgia are spending millions and millions of dollars trying to take your republican congressional seat away from you. don't let them do it. tomorrow there's a special election for congress in georgia. only you can stop the surm liberal democrats and nancy pelosi's group and in particular john. if you don't vote tomorrow, o

soossofsoft aossofossoff ossoff ossoff i don't think we can ever overestimate the impact of the failure of if health care proposals and the discussion of health care proposals. the last three weeks have had on the american electorate across the board left to right. it's been really devastating. >> well, also, if you're running, if you're a republican, what does it mean now to be republican in the age of trump? what does it mean to be a conservative in the age of trump. i'm not being sarcastic. a lot of people that used to run around calling everyone else rhinos are now towing russia's line. they are eating and digesting exactly what vladimir putin spokespeople are saying and repeating it. praising assad. is that what it means to be a conservative. no. it's not.

if you look at the blueprints, the budgets f you're going to have a $20 trillion deficit coming a $30 trillion deficit. donald trump is a life long democratic. come into the republican party and these candidates don't know what they're going to run on. >> the problem is that the president is gutting the republican brand, like it needs to be gutted even more. it is being gutted because as he launched himself into the presidency, he has delivered nothing burger after nothing burger after nothing burger. ratings are higher. newspaper sales are going up. people are looking and they're disappointed. visibly you can see a flash in time with polls and you see with the ratings, people are watching and they're disappointing. that's what republicans have to deal with a very disappointing president who doesn't tell the truth. >> we've talked a lot on those show over the last 25 years every president comes in thinking they're going to change washington. especially donald trump. >> he hasn't had any wins.

>> a ceo going to pound his fists and get things done. he's come in and met the reality of washington. he's not the one who is going to turn washington upside down and a lot of people who voted for him and believed he would be the one are starting to realize it's not going to happen that way. >> you can't insult everybody in washington, carol, and expect washington to work with you. he is gone to war with everybody in washington. >> including his own party. look at what he managed to do, the only thing he's gotten done legislatively is supreme court justice. no small thing, but everything he put forward, his budget never going to become law anyway. it always gets changed. republicans did not agree on that proposal. health care bill divisions within the republican party. tax reform going to be divisions there. if you're a voter and you're looking at the republican party which now has control of the house and senate and the white house, is and they're not able to get things done, it's really obviously going to have an

impact on the president standing. >> in your interview with him, as you were making the asterisk you knnoknow change his positio certain issues, did you get any feeling of certainly versus uncertainty in his voice. >> he w very confident in what he was saying. it was very interesting to watch him think through the policies that he was talking about. how he arrived at certain positions and he was assured and there wasn't a real questioning of what he was saying and doing. i think he felt and outlined a number of positions how he got to the change he made. and we felt like he was very confident and relaxed and he seemed to actually be enjoying the job and maybe that's the bubble. i don't know. >> health care has taught him, being a president is much different than being a ceo. you have to build a coalition. you have to persuade democrats it's a good idea. if you give me this, i'll give you that. tax reform first might have been

better. infrastructure and build relationships you use for health care. >> nobody likes when -- on either side when there are any comparisons between the 44th and 45th president of the united states, but both of them road into town thinking the laws of washington were going to be rewritten for them and nay weren't. >> look to further. get to it in just a moment. look no further than tom cotton and the position he was in with constituents. >> even on neil gorsuch, the conservatives i talked to, yes, they are glad hillary clinton didn't select the replacement for scalia, but a lot of the hard core conservatives i talked to marked that down as a win for mi mitch mcconnell who basically held that seat open and then resorted to the nuclear option, said, listen, we're going to get him through no matter what and

mitch mcconnell did. >> mcconnell is getting a lot of the credit on the right side of tharty for judge gorsuch and you you got the white house taking credit for it as well. one thing i'm struck by here in georgia is not everybody is running as trump republican. you got two major trump backers, working with the trump campaign and supporters last year. nowhere in the polls. the person leading on the republican side, karen handle, who has been running here for over a decade, told me yesterday in an interview, i'm going to be about the sixth district of georgia. i'm not going to washington if i win to be a trump style republican. so you have these first 100 days not a rush, at least in suburban districts like this, you don't have the rush for everyone to be make america great again trump republican. they're really trying to protect their own profile and be republican instead of trump. >> how interesting because we aren't even 100 days in and republican candidates that may

not be running away from donald trump, but they certainly are not embracing him. that never happens. >> not in a good position. republican lawmakers are increasingly getting an ear full from constituents in home districts over the issue of tax returns. here's senator tom cotton in arkansas yesterday. >> my question is, you in congress and in the senate have the power to subpoena these tax returns. the president said during the campaign that he would not release the tax returns while he was under audit. now he says the election has happened and he doesn't need to release his tax returns. i'm wondering if you'll take the initiative to have him release those returns so we can see what kinds of connections he has with different countries around the world and what tax proposals

would personally benefit him and his family [ applause ] >> as far as i'm aware that the president says he's still under audit. [ boos ] >> mike barn cal, as you pointed out, arkansas. >> yes. >> that was not massachusetts. >> no. >> that was little rock arkansas. >> yes. we cover and we talk about win, lose, elections and everything like that, but the undercurrents in the american culture, political culture today are really interesting. the taxes are part of the ripple effect. health care debate we just went through. i'm going to lose my health care. my health care is going to be different in a way that was different under the obama administration talking about obamacare. something to watch. >> no and, also, it is obviously not good for the president.

not good for tom cotton's position he's in. also not good for the country. >> by the way, here were the results not so long ago. donald trump 60 .6% in arkansas. hillary clinton 33%. joining us now from the white house. white house correspondent. >> it's amazing how quickly barack obama won in 2008. and it was the dawning the of the age of a kwarhousequarius. kristen welker joins us now. how is this creating a roadblock for everything ahead. especially push to reform tax code. >> it is. first of all you have a growing number of republicans who are calling on this president to repiece tax returns because seems like the one you just played in arkansas are creating jitters frankly throughout the

party and it's giving democrats new leverage. they are threatening to use that to hold over the head of the white house as they try to get tax reform accomplished. i'm devil into that more deeply in a moment. the other thing fueling this backlash. you had protesters out over the weekend: tens of thousands of them all akosz the country demanding he release returns. c demanding he release returns. r demanding he release returns. >> ir did what was an impossible thing to do. won the electoral college. tax returns being brought up again. press secretary digging in yesterday as well. take a listen. >> the president is under audit. it's a routine audit continues. and i think that the american public knows clearly where he stands. this is something he made clear during the election cycle. and the one time it was done, i think the people understand how successful the president has

been and how much he's paid in taxes. it's the same -- we're under the same audit that existed and so nothing has changed. >> so this is giving democrats fresh fire to try to stone wall this administration over tax reform. let me give you some of my reporting though based on recent conversations inside the white house. as they think about tax reform bottom line, they are acknowledging it's going be a really uphill battle, one, because they didn't get health care passed. president not only lost momentum. didn't get huge tax breaks from repealing and replacing obamacare that they were counting on. as they approach tax reform. i spoke to one senior official. who said this is going to be tough. do they think they're going get a broad tax reform bill passed. seems more likely what we could see are targeted tax cuts. that seems to be the new focus not only here, but on capitol hill and i'll also just point out underscoring all of this, steve said yesterday his initial

statement that they could get tax reform done by august now seems unlikely. he is saying that timeline could be a lot longer. >> nbc kristen welker. thank you very much. >> bob costa, are you sensing a growing un's on the tax return issue or just a growing unease among members of the house. >> important to get outside of washington joe. no one is talking about tax returns in terms of political insiders i'm covering day-to-day at the capitol and the white house. when i'm talking to voters here in georgia and this is beyond taxes and tax reform and infrastructure and health care. the things we're covering day-to-day is the political mix in washington. these are the lingering concerns from the election that seem to be kals fies and then now reemerging in the 2017 period.

>> and as you said last hour. we have no. >> by playing this game for two years, now the trump white house opened themselves up to ongoing questions. why not release them. what's in them you're so scared for people to see. >> bob costa thank you very much. still ahead turkey's president tells critics who accuse him of a power grab to talk to the hand. former u.s. ambassador joins us. plus. >> question who will stay on as my top adviser jared.

take him back. snl's version of donald trump had no problem banishing sb ini bannon. according to vanity fair getting rid of the real steve bannon won't be as easy. joins us with a follow-up tour. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. you do all this research

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it seems the u.s. has split with the rest of the western world in terms of referendum that gave turkey president sweeping new powers. called president erdogan yesterday to congratulate him on the victory. that call came as the international observer say the referendum was neither fair nor free. congratulations. preliminary findings. >> how did that call go? >> hey, congratulations on stealing an election. >> who is in the room. >> and seizing power for a decade. >> maybe that's not a good call to make. >> who would tell him to call this guy who has been a thug who has arrested more journalists. >> i'm getting so worried. >> he makes putin look like a piker when it comes to arresting journali journalists. he seized control of a democracy. a nato democracy. he cheated in this referendum. he seized power until 2029. and donald trump is calling to congratulate him.

who exactly is telling him to do that? preliminary findings from the world organization -- >> who is that stupid. >> cooperation in europe claims a lack of equal opportunity, one sided media coverage and limitations on fundamental freedoms had created an unlevel playing field. specifically sites the crack down on erdogan political opponents after last year's coup attempt. hundreds have taken to the streets of turkey to protest the results, but erdogan remained defiant telling a crowd at the airport, quote, we neither, e, hear, nor acknowledge the political rorts you prepare. i thought we made that up. what tyrant, did hitler ever say talk to the hand. dismisu did mussolini ever say talk to the hand? >> former ambassador to nato

under president obama. doug is retired lieutenant general in u.s. army also with us. former fbi special agent and army infantry officer clint watts. fellow in the foreign policy research institute program on the middle east. >> let's start with you. how disturbing is it that donald trump, the president of our united states, called an auto kat who seized power for another decade. >> on the surface, it's presidential. you' -- terrible. president trump calling someone who is a clear authoritarian, but the one thing we have to remember and i'm sure this is part of the reason they do it is we've got troops in turkey. major airbags the base there. russia has pushed to influence the country. >> mr. ambassador, do we have to deal with the devil. would you have recommended he made this phone call. >> i think it's important to

realize as previous speaker just mentioned. turkey is a violate nato ally. that means that not only is it one of the 28 democracies that make up the alliance also a frontline nato ally with regard to islamic state. >> i understand that and i understand how important they are not only in the fight against isis, but also in so many other areas. you just called them a democracy. they're no longer a democracy, are they? >> look, across the 28 allies in nato, there are 28 democracies and there are a number of flavor inveions of democracy. certainly the moves that we use cited with regard to the erdogan government and most recent referendum are disturbing: they cut against the underlying principals of nato. in the preamble to nato treaty. that goes back to 1949. three key tenants. korea key values are cited. democracy, individual liberty, and rule of law.

so any drift away from those values as we've seen in recent years. something like we have an important relationship. i understand that, but at the same time expressing concern over how he grabbed power yesterday. >> i think there's ban trend not just through the obama administration, but over 70 years that american presidents have understood that the foundation of nato, are these democratic values. so i wouldn't hazard to guess in terms of hiech thet cal calls, but i think there's long -- a long standing trend that american presidents understand the value of these democratic tenants. >> so clinton, you're also looking at north korea very closely here. is if trump white house handling itself correctly. is it obviously vice president pence is in south korea for the

last couple of days on a trip there. what do you make of the tone and tenor of more aggressive tone from the white house. >> i like how they're handling it in terms of its been a long time coming with north korea. we have let them build nuclear capabilities. i like how they're handling it with military and vice president. what i'm concerned about is we're picking fights in many places at once. the old saying in the military is you only do two battles at one time. just lake week cruise missile strikes in syria. dropping in afghanistan. advancing in north korea. dealing with an isis fight. this is a lot of different battles at once. when we depend to da do that with the new administration. likely going to step on one if not more. >> so, the president at the easter egg roll talked a little bit about north korea yesterday. he was asked about it by fox news. take a look. >> i hope there's going be peace, but you know they've been talking with this gentleman for a long time. you read clinton's book. he said we made such a great

peace deal. it was a joke. you look at different things over the years with president obama. everybody he's been outplayed. i don't want to telegraph what i'm doing or thinking. i'm not like other administrations where they say we're going to do this in four weeks and that doesn't work that way. >> having to balance things militarily. quite the opposite. >> yes, there's a lot of rattling. if you look at what he's doing in north korea, there's the rhetoric which is very ramped up and very different from the obama administration. and the concern and the white house was asked about this yesterday was whether that could lead to unintended conflict. saw the deputy u.n. ambassador saying that they would

retaliate. there was a lot of -- he had very aggressive comments too and so it's kind of whipping up into this. if you look and i'd be curious what you think about this. in my watching this unfold, seems like the message is for china, not necessarily north korea. >> clooin is the lever for the u.s. no gain in terms of diplomatic relations with north korea. we don't talk about enough in the united states is cyber attacks. we forget that the balancing act of nuclear is actually cyber. north korea did the sony attack. they could launch a destructive malware attack in the united states that would cripple us. we are week on cyber. part of the balancing act and tensions is how much nuclear do we want to stop and take the risk of cyber. >> mr. ambassador, obviously have an important election coming up in france over the next couple of weeks or months. are you concerned about russia interfering in that election?

own electoral process, and, of course, russia has ties into political parties across europe. and russia has flooded the airways with disnchgs, 34is information all in an attempt to again get at underpinning values of alliance. yes, we should be concerned. >> clint asked you the same thing. >> they're messing in france's election, but not to the extent they are in germ. having a lot nor traction in germany. in france not doing quite as well on social media. we should be concerne audiences that will endure past the election. >> mr.ambassador, final question to you. i'm just curious. americans have been concerned about nato over the past 100 days. even immediately following the president's election. i've seen polls that show 80% of americans believe the nato alliance in strong and very important to this country.

what is the state of nato today. >> look, nato is the most successful, most durable effective alliance in world history. you really have to look at the 100 year experience of the 20th century. kmar compare the first half of the 20th century two world wars to the second half. which was dominated by the stabilizing influence of nato. to understand that america's interest began not at our shoreline, but overseas and when you look east, overseas in europe. so i think every problem you have you've discussed this mornings, so syria, north korea, and so forth. nato gives us the opg of addressing these problems not alone and beginning at our shoreline, but rather overseaings with like minded allies. that's a huge strategic advantage for the united states. >> ambassador, thank you very mu much. clint, thank you very much. >> thank you guys. greatly peeshted. still ahead.

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go down and get to know somebody. not seen across a wooden partition. during the daily briefing sean spicer was askedbout whether or not the white house would be more transparent about w the president meets during this trips there. >> i think we've done a fairly good job of making sure the people know who he is meeting with, who he is speaking to and when appropriate, the contents of those calls. i think the president is entitled to have some time with

his family and friends to just catch up. >> so obviously the concern as you've tried to cover the president down in mar-a-lago is you don't have any access. it's a private club. in idea who is in there. >> it's a really different situation because it's -- you don't know who he is meeting with in there and also goes to another club and meets with people and golfs. we don't know what he's doing. they won't even say whether or not he's golfing some of the time. the people who are there, obviously, have access to him and he meets with different people while he's there, but we don't know. and so there's that piece and then the white house where he -- the white house decided they weren't going to release the visitor logs as the obama administration did. there were flaws in the system. there were loopholes and all kinds of things. but they decided they weren't going to do it at all. that piece is missing too. >> wall street journal. very good to have you on. >> up next when steve bannon was forced off national security

counsel, "new york times" reported he threatened to quit. according to next guest, he's much more likely to be fired. if he does stay, what would his role be. that's ahead on morning joe. ray's always been different. last year, he said he was going to dig a hole to china. at&t is working with farmers to improve irrigation techniques. remote moisture sensors use a reliable network

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speaking of justin bieber or grande. they did get something better. group reading time with jeff sessions. >> bears went to sleep for the winter. they slept the whole winter. the president's coming. well, let's see. >> there he is. wait a minute. you know what, i think we might

have gotten our clips mixed up. >> joining us now. special correspondent at vanity fair. sara elson. good to have you on the show. latest issue of the magazine details the drama and fighting among key staffers in west wing. story is entitled the west ros wing. in reference to game of thrones. so sara, give us a sense of the -- i mean, first of all, you had to go to press like right away with this because things move so fast in this white house. >> we were going to keep the story for the magazine and early we just realized that's impossible with this group of people. there is such intrigue and the ground is always shifting. >> luckily vanity fair has a thriving website. >> indeed. it's one of those things you wonder what it's like to work in

that environment. i didn't want to do a story of who is up and down. we were looking to do something more in depth about what were the projects of individual people. interest and bios, but as soon as you get in and talk to anyone there, what they're mostly concerned about is who else is screwing up in this west wing. it just makes it seem. i wish this kind of story didn't exist. it would be better for everyone. >> it would. when i was looking at the tom cotton, when he was talking to the constituents yesterday in arkansas, it just does note bode well for the country. not about party and who is sing. this feels like everyone is losing. how would you characterize the environment. >> when people talk about the pressure that exists in any administration in the west wing, there's constant things coming at you with the repity that you can hardly imagine on a regular job, but in this environment, someone said ho had worked instead a prior administration said you want the torpedos

coming from the outside. you don't want them coming from colleagues on the inside. >> in any new administration, you know there's chaos in the first 100 days at least. first couple of years perhaps as people learn the job. people who have done this before. always seem to be in most administrations one steady washington hand who can walk the president through the way business is done. who is that person for donald trump. >> well, i think that is one of the questions, right? who is that person. is it steve bannon. no. we've learned through over the past sort of two weeks he's been sort of demoted. is it jared kushner? jared kushner and ivana trump know him well and have his trust. those people have no government experience. don't know how to operate within the environment. the problem with donald trump and what got him to washington was that he didn't have any washington relationships. any significant sort of washington experience, he was an outsider. he was going to go to war with washington.

that's a great campaign promise be then you have to have the recognition once you're inside and managing the largest bureau world, with a lot of appointees, lots of people looking for direction, you actually need to know how to move that government perform we've seen maybe it's the travel ban and health care. those things can't get done if you're trying to lash out at every part of the government. >> may not be a steady hand is what you're saying. >> wow. >> the root of all of this, the jared dusher in, steve bannon, reince priebus, is it ideology? is it personality? is it competence, jealousy or all four? >> i think it's all four. i think these people -- these are all smart people. they're all good at the jobs they had before they came to this white house but their

ability to work together, you have to remember donald trump's campaign was built on a number of different contradictory ideas and what you rely on in a west wing and a white house is someone at the center who has a real ideology who knows exactly what they want to get done and has people who know how to get it done. you look at a steve bannon or a jared kushner, there isn't anyone with significant washington experience. the only person in that white house who's been in a white house before with any kind of significant responsibility is dana powell. she's somebody who is very effective but was nowhere near the campaign when it was going on. so, it's a group who come together very recently up. also need people who you really trust, who have been with you for a long of time. the obama aides had been with him a a full two years before he got to the white house. hillary clinton had people who

had been with her 30, 35 years in some cases. that's one of the reasons she didn't win the election. people think, you have all of these people lined up from washington for decades. there's a difference between campaigning and governing. >> how does dina manage to stay out of the line of fire with all this back and forth between steve and jared and -- >> i was shocked by what people would say about their colleagues when i was doing this sty. i certainly uldn't want to be working in that environment. and i think that she's -- i'm not sure she is out of the line of fire. she is somebody who's definitely a republican but has been lumped in with the quote/unquote democrats that people talk about, you know, the bannon wing, people who are representing -- >> do you know how funny that is when you look at her background? she's the last person in that white house you'd call a

democrat. i'm friends with her but she's not a democrat. >> she would say that very proudly herself. i'm a republican. when she was appointed to this position she had people like tom cotton praising her. >> who's also more than competent. >> i would say she's the best set of fresh eyes that white house has. >> that's true. >> the question will be as president and top officials there realize that before it's too late. it's looking like it's too late. >> i think that -- you know, i think it's a question of if you have someone in there who's that competent but you also have people who think she represents the con of this election, not the deplorables who elected donald trump. these are all personal vendettas. it's crazy. >> it's like mean girls on high octane. sarah ellison, thank you very much. what remains to be seen can democrats capitalize on this chaos in the white house. the dnc is pushing forward with

a plan to begin healing the division within the party following last year's election. and that includes a new commission to discuss reforms in the prm nominating process. this is probably a very good idea, including issues like the role of superdelegates on caucus. it came as tom perez kicked off a nationwide tour with bernie sanders in maine. senator sanders may be laying the groundwork for anoer white house run in 2020. sanders o nearly won the iowa caucuses in 2016 is set to headline a political convention in the key battleground state in july. okay. >> so it begins. >> stay tuned, bernie. >> i know a lot of college kids will be showing up. a lot of this will be put to the test today in georgia. will democrats be able to flip tom his's old house seat from red to blue.

kasie hunt joins us with her latest reporting plus new poll numbers out this morning. numbers the president will not be tweeting about. we'll be right back. "how to win at business." step one: point decisively with the arm of your glasses. abracadabra. the stage is yours. step two: choose la quinta. the only hotel where you can redeem loyalty points for a free night-instantly and win at business. does your makeup remover every kiss-proof,ff?

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being here. ♪ still crazy after all these years ♪ >> and that's all the time we have today. for "morning joe." thank you so much for tuning in. >> what was that? willie geist, you are pretty much the expert of combining rabbits and white house ceremonies. >> with big glasses on. >> on furries, mainly. >> was this a furry right here? >> that's the season premiere of "veep," it was a good episode. you know, he was doing the easter egg roll. he was hosting it, but then he sort of went into a speech about how his administration was going. this there's nowhere for the easter bunny to hide. he was caught in a two-shot that pulled out to a family shot. >> the bunny was clasping, mike barnicle. the bunny was clapping. there was a lot of choreography here. awkward choreography. melania reminding donald to put

his hand over his heart. a lot of interesting things going on here. >> the easter bunny is nodding. there is polling that shows voters may not agree with that. voters in georgia may prove that point today -- >> or not. >> -- a democrat is looking to knock off a crowd of republicans that could spell trouble count line for the gop. good morning, everyone. it's tuesday, april 18th. with us we have veteran columnist and msnbc contributor, senior political contribor mark halperin. let's get to that polling because the bunny says one thing and who rns, it could be spicy this there. >> i just want to ask. i'm just curious. because my gut reaction says his numbers would have gone up this

week. wouldn't that be everyone else's impression. grownups are coming in. they are starting to tweet less -- >> 59 missiles. >> i think we underestimated self-inflicted wounds. >> we're going to dig into these numbers. we had paul simon's "still crazy after all these years," a line that applies in these polls. i fear it may do damage one fine day. there may be damage that's been done that is going to be a lot harder for him to walk back, willie, than just having a good week or two. >> specifically the strike in syria because as everyone here knows, historically a show of military force, especially that case is viewed as humanitarian strike against chemical weapons attack everyone saw. you think that would give him a couple points here and there. as mika is about to show us, he's flat. >> let's show. new polling from gallup has the president's approval rating at 40%. essentially the same as february. his numbers are sinking, though,

on some key characteristics. 45% think the president keeps his promises. that's down 17 points in two months. 52% say he is a strong and decisive leader. a drop of seven. 46% say he can bring about the changes the country needs, down seven points. just 36 srs say he is honest and trustworthy, down 6 points. 42% say he cares about people like you, down four. 41% believe he can manage the government effectively. at the same time, a pew research poll finds the president's job approval hovering around 39%, well below the popularity of his predecessors at similar points in their presidency. >> obama was 56%, reagan at 67%. >> he had approval rating of 49%.

role livety low disapproval rating compared to trump. >> so, let's talk about these numbers. mark halperin, your marist poll you ably ran had donald trump at 39%. i was skeptical of that poll to be honest with you. i thought he was going to -- i thought after thinking shook out he would be around 42, 43, 44%. but that's just dead on with pew and gallup and these other polls. >> yeah, the polls is pretty consistent amongst respected polls. he's just under 40 or at 40, and as mika showed, that's worse than other presidents at this point. you'd think he would have gont a bounce, but i think the lack of change in washington, the lack of progress in washington, i think, is what's holding his approval rating down. people looked at his style during the campaign and a lot of americans said, that's an unorthodox style but that's what we need to change. >> he'll get it done. he said, get it done.

he said health care would be easy, mike. he failed on health care. the tax code is bogging down now. "the new york times" -- >> the muslim ban. >> "the new york times," subscriptions way up since donald trump is president of the united states says now he's the tax code. he's stumbling on tax reform. you're right, the travel ban -- >> didn't get it done. >> -- held up in the courts. >> two things. mark just point out one of the things. the level of expectation among voters on both sides was that, okay, he'll get something done. nothing has really happened. the other thing i feel is harder to get to and you pick it up anecdotally and it's almost a cosmetic issue. and it's people are sort of disappointed that he's not acting more like a president. >> you remember one month in. you called and said, i called 14 friends in florida.

every one except one still supported him. it's great what he's doing with the press, he's sticking it to everybody, right? >> they came through for trump. >> they came through for trump. that's want what they're saying now. a lot of them are telling me, i'm just not watching anymore. >> they're sick of the tweets. >> this is interesting. they tuned him out. they're not watching. this is something he doesn't understand. i'll say is flat out, he doesn't understand. every president has a sell by date. i remember being shocked that six years in in 1986 ronald reagan was giving a pitch on getting relief, on getting aid to el salvador rebels. he would have sold that in a second in 1981. by '86, people. tuning him out because the president only has -- again, they all have a sell-by date.

barack obama's might have been five or six years in where he gave speeches, it just wasn't the same as 2009. donald trump, by giving so much, tweeting so much, and being so m maniacle about being in the press every second -- >> it's actually put sunlight on a lot of bad, you know, things that haven't gone well. he's put the lights on for everyone to see and i don't know how many days into the president -- >> what you pick up is that he's accelerated the pace of exhaustion among people. >> i also think they're looking at nothing getting done. >> i'd love to see someone measure it, but i think we all have the sense this is the most intense 90 days we've ever seen and it goes to your point of people tuning out. they want results. he can still, if he gets results, he can win some of these people back. 90 days of exhausting people and having a supreme court confirmation to show for it for

the most part. in february, 62% of americans said, he's a guy who keeps his promises. now only 45% of them say that. back in february we were still talking about the travel ban, repealing health care, we at the table said you can be angry about these things but you can't be shocked because this is exactly what he talked about during the campaign. now he didn't do any of those things. those things didn't make it through. now he's changed his tone on china, something his supporters love. they're not currency manipulators anymore. i think a lot of people are thinking right now, all those big, bold promises we thought he was going to be the guy who would come and change washington and he he hasn't done it. >> all the things we haven't warned him about in november and december. they're all on tape. they're all on the transcript. this is not monday morning quarterbacking. we warned him every day. don't pick fights with the intel community. don't pick unnecessary fights with the press.

don't insult the senate minority leader. don't go to paul ryan's district and mock him until you decide not to. don't do all these things. washington -- winning in washington is hard enough without picking unnecessary fights every day. you know who he really needs to be talking to right now? on north korea? the guy who warned him that north korea was going to be his most difficult problem. barack oma, he can't do that because he's been so reckless and irresponsible with a tweet that he did on a saturday morning and he didn't have the character to take it back and step back. so, he's insulted everybody from the 44th president to great britain to all of our allies. >> hold on one second, okay? thanks. what i was going to say was to your point, i actually disagree.

i don't think people are tuning out. i think they're tuning in. if you say sales of "new york times" are up and tv ratings are up, i think people are watching closely and, like me, they're really disappointed. some of them are less disappointed but they're disappointed. i think people -- i think the lights are on this presidency. >> i'm saying -- >> it would be really great for trump if they would tune out just a tad bit. >> i'm saying his core supporters that were there all the time and were online and fighting for him and watching on tv all the time are now kind of going like, wait a second, why am i fighting for this guy all the time when he can't keep stepping on political land mines? still ahead on "morning joe," president trump is doubling down on his involvement in georgia's special election. nbc's kasie hunt is in georgia with more on the president's stark warning to voters there. she joins us next. first we go to bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> good morning. we're off to a great start this april. it's been very warm. we haven't had a lot of severe

weather or tornadoes. there are a couple rough spots early this morning. if you're in minnesota, it's a mess. typical spring weather. we have northern minnesota in freezing rain and snow from duluth to international falls and plain old rain heading for the minneapolis area this morning. how about the heavy rain. this is like a typical of houston. you get these slow-moving thunderstorms that just drench the area. areas south of houston picked up 6 to 9 inches of rain overnight. houston south to galveston, a lot of flash flooding early today. today's forecast, we're in the 70s and 80s from denver all the way to areas of the southeast. 75 i cgo is a perfect day. not bad in d.c. either. new york's looking good at 62. into tomorrow, we hike up the heat a little bit. storm coming through the rockies. that usually means severe weather. we'll get a little minor area of severe weather. the area of concern, this isn't today, this is tomorrow. i don't even think we'll have too many tornado problems. we'll deal with large hail, damaging winds. emporia to wichita, kansas city, des moines, omaha included, an

isolated storm from the chicago area. overall it's a fantastic middle of april across most of the country. cool nights and warm, sunny days is pretty much what we love. we're getting that right now in areas of the mid-atlantic into new york city. beautiful start to your day, big apple. high in the low 60s. nearly perfect. you're watching "morning joe." stay with me, mr. parker. when a critical patient is far from the hospital, the hospital must come to the patient. stay with me, mr. parker. the at&t network is helping first responders connect with medical teams in near real time... stay with me, mr. parker. ...saving time when it matters most. stay with me, mrs. parker. that's the power of and. when a fire destroyed everything in our living room. we replaced it all without touching our savings. yeah, our insurance won't do that. no. you can leave worry behind

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voters in georgia's sixth congressional district head to the polls to cast their vote in a special election that's becoming a referendum on president trump. nbc news capitol hill reporter kasie hunt has been on the ground in georgia for the past few days following this race. kasie, septembt the scene for u >> reporter: good morning. nobody thought here in suburban atlanta that this would become the first front in democrats' basically all-out war against donald trump, their first chance to really take him on. there are 18 candidates on the

ballot today, 11 republicans, 5 democrats. one of them, jon ossoff, is unexpectedly within striking distance of winning this race outright. ♪ he grew up in this district's sleepy suburbs. a soft-spoken wonky millennial. but jon ossoff has become the face of the resistance, taking on the president democrats loathe. >> this is the first chance in the country to stand up and make a statement. >> reporter: more than $8.3 million has poured in from all over the country. dozens of volunteers have flown from as far as berkeley, california, to help. >> hey, good morning, everybody. how y'all doing? >> reporter: samuel l. jackson cut an ad for him. >> we have to channel this into

votes. >> reporter: and president trump is attacking him. >> ossoff will raise your taxes, destroy your health care and flood our country with illegal immigrants. >> reporter: all over just one seat in the house. the special election to replace tom price, now president trump's hhs secretary. >> do you feel like you've become the vessel for the hopes and dreams of democrats all over the country who can't stand donald trump. >> well, this thing has taken on a life of its own in the past few months. >> reporter: ossoff comes across as an unlikely hero, in a mock ad for dressing up as hans solo. >> reporter: did hans solo shoot first? now he's carefully scripted. sounds like you're running against donald trump. >> well, there are many in the community here who have concerns about the direction of things in washington right now. and i am among them. >> reporter: ossoff needs 50% of the vote today to avoid a june

run-off with 17 candidates in the race. >> i can beat jon ossoff. >> reporter: karen handle is the leading republican. national republicans and democrats have steamed pin their hopes on this district. is that how it feels when you campaign every day? >> i think so. they're going to be disappointed, i think. >> reporter: bus ossoff's rise took national republicans by surprise. this is newt gingrich's old seat. in 2016 tom price won re-election by more than 20 points but president trump barely beat hillary clinton here, falling behind with some college educated republicans who are opposing him again. >> this time i voted for jon ossoff. there's a little message send by me and others, no question about that, but i also do think there needs to be a check on donald trump. >> reporter: democrats hoping the district and the country will follow. so, a couple of questions and things to watch for today as voters go to the polls here. first, i do think there's a sense that ossoff may have overplayed his hand a little bit

that this race has gone a little too national. his campaign staff here are very focused on pointing out local voss. there is a sense that maybe while he did have a chance of breaking that 50% threshold, that that's slid in the wrong direction for him in recent days. sikd of all from a broader perspective, i think it will be what does this race mean more broadly? does it mean democrats have a better shot of taking back the house in 2018? in some ways republicans shouldn't have been a surprised where donald trump effectively being on the ballot would be a problem because voters didn't go for him overwhelmingly in 2016. that said, i do think if ossoff is able to win outright here and avoid that runoff, it would be a big blow for president trump. mika, joe? >> nbc's kasie hunt, thank you. up next, it may be tax day but don't expect to see the president's tax returns any time soon. how his refusal to release his financials could be dragging down republicans back home and

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treasury secretary steve

mnuchin says failure to reach a deal on health care means having legislation on the president's desk by august is not realistic. august was his original goal. mnuchin now says the end of the year is his expectations. "the new york times" is reporting fixing the tax code faces long odds in congress in part because of the president's continued refusal to release his own taxes. the paper says that democrats have pledged not to cooperate in rewriting tax laws until they know how those provision might benefit the president personally. here's white house press secretary sean spicer explaining why the president is keeping his financials under wraps. >> the president is under audit. it's a routine one that continues. and i think that the american public know clearly where he stands this is something he made clear during the election cycle. hold on.

the one fim it was people understand how -- we're under the same audit that existed so nothing has changed. >> you always talk about under audit, the president is under audit. is it time for once and all to say the president is not going to release his tax returns. >> we'll have to get back to you. >> i mean, really? >> really. >> so, he may? >> no, i said i'd have to get back to you on it. he's still under audit. the statement still stands. >> now republican lawmakers are increasingly getting an earful from constituents in their home districts over the issue. here's senator tom cotton in arkansas yesterday. >> my question is you in congress and the senate have the power to subpoena these tax returns. the president -- the president said during the campaign that he would not release the tax

returns while he was under audit. now he says the elections has happened and he doesn't need to release his tax returns. i'm wondering if you'll take the initiative to have him release those returns so we can see what kind of can connections he has with different countries around the world and what -- [ applause ] >> and what tax proposals would personally benefit him and his family? >> as far as i'm aware, the president says he's still under audit. >> if you're under audit for specific year, say under 2009, 2010 and you're filing your tax today for the last calendar year, the audit does not follow

you through the years. i think. i'm pretty sure. i'm fairly certain the audit does not follow you. >> it's an exhausting charade. you can see it on the faces of tom cotton and sean spicer yesterday. they don't have an answer to quet. they don't have an answer. more than a year ago the irs came out and said we can't say anything about donald trump's taxes but nothing prevents an individual from releasing his own taxes, especially during the campaign, when he's running for president of the united states. we want to know who he is, what his business interests are. nobody buys this argument, especially people of america, like the man in little rock yesterday talking to senator cotton. >> we'll be talking throughout the morning about the special election in georgia. we'll see what happens in georgia. it's a republican district. the republican should win but it's going to be close. we think it's going to be close. but i will tell you if for some reason the democrats pull off a

big upset there, and i know how this works, you're going to have a lot of members of congress looking at the white house, and in the future when they see republicans starting to lose in special elections, they're going to say, you know what, i think you may be right. i think maybe he should release his taxes. i don't care if my mother were president of the united states. if i were in tom cotton's position, i would say, you're right, she should release her tax. >> you've have others like jo joanjoa the pressure is big now and the resistance to the president has pick ts up aa major issue on tax day. and in the past, president's have released their returns and so it ompbl heightens the fact he hasn't done it.

it will be a huge deal if the guy gets to 50% today. ailst allan lichtman joins us just ahead on "morning joe."

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the faert in power. you don't have the obama administtion matching anything like the affordable care act in the second term. you don't have a foreign policy triumph the democrats can campaign on like getting rid of bin laden. in hillary clinton you don't

have a john f. kennedy. that's six factors. >> that was american university professor allan lichtman on "morning joe" on explaining his basis for predicting trump would win the election. he got it right, adding to his streak of correctly predicting the winner of of presidential election since 1984. professor lichtman joins us with his new book "the case for impeachment". >> just look at that cover. look at that cover. that is liberal catnip. you can't tell me that any liberal can pass by that, willie, and not buy that book. >> they should start printing the bell seller list. >> that is number one right now. >> before we get to that, professor, have i to ask you, talk about how much -- abuse, i'm serious, how much abuse did you get for predicting back in the fall that donald trump was

going to get elected when you said -- >> people wondered if i got my degree mail order because -- >> professors didn't eat with you in the cafeteria. >> i'm at american university in the heart of liberal washington, d.c. nobody would talk to me. you know, they would make signs when they saw me coming. they would protect themselves. >> you've just described every day of my life for the past 54 years. still, it was pretty -- the prediction was remarkable. what is the worst insult you can remember from a colleague or somebody when you made that predicti prediction? >> i think the biggest insult is sobody suggest who are they hiring these days at american university? and i'm going to have to call the president to get rid of you.

>> i have something called tenure, though. >> not for long. i'm joking. >> not once trump calls the president of au. >> exactly. willie geist "the case against impeachment," the second act. >> do you believe -- let's lay it all out. do you believe there's a basis for impeachment against donald trump or if things play out there could be? >> i'm not saying we should draw up articles of impeachment now. i wrote this book because i do believe the way i see the trump administration going that it does pose a threat to our constitutional order, our liberties and freedom. as you see in north korea, even our national security. >> what specifically would be the articles of impeachment in the house of representatives right now, for example? >> right now i think you could write something up on conflicts of interest. you know, trump just got all

these trademarks from china right after he seemed to have switched off of his approach to taiwan. by the way, one of them is for an escort service. i just read ivanka trump got a bunch of trademarks in china. and i also believe the envoy from philippines to united states is head of trump tour manila. there's something called the emoluments clause of the constitution but it says you can't receive anything if you're the president of value from a foreign power and it doesn't require a quid pro quo. trump's biggest problem was not fully divesting. y, he would have taken a hit to his fortune but still would have been a bhl air. >> there's a lot -- >> we want to clean something up here, right? >> the escort service. >> yeah. >> don't think there's been a connection made there from the president.

they were trying use his name. it wasn't him. >> okay. but do you believe these existing ces are there now? like someone could drop an article of impeachment now in the house of representatives or are you saying there's an investigation that shows a direct line on all these issues, then you bring it up? >> there's got to be more of an investigation up. can't draw up articles of impeachment right now but the most likely grounds for impeachment is going to be collusion with russia depending on what comes out of these investigations. >> so, this looks like this book, mark halperin, just looking through it, again, looking at historical parallels, the characteristics and the traits donald trump has compared to other president who is have been impeached and ran into trouble subsequently. >> well, as -- there's not a huge sample space here. we haven't had many presidents impeached. so, parallels may not get you the answer.

i want to clear up two things. one is, you mentioned your degree was not mail order. it was from trump university, right, that's where your ph.d. is from? >> i paid him tens of thousands of dollars. >> the case for impeachment, are you advocating impeachment or predicting it? >> i'm not advocating impeachment right now. >> are you predicting it's going to happen? >> i'm predicting it's very likely to happen. there's a chapter called "the way out" in which i suggest trump can change his ways and possibly avoid impeachment. i don't know if that's possible. what i tried to do was write a guide for the american people because impeachment will only happen if the american people demand it. or if the republicans in the house come to believe trump is a liability, which they may well, and you are talking about the special election in georgia which can could be a harbinger of that. so, if he becomes a liability, they may be willing to dump him

before the 2018 midterms. remember, trump has no particularly strong relationships with republicans in congress and they love mike pence. if pence becomes president, guess what addition. >> oh, my god -- >> he appoints his vice president. you could have the republican dream team of mike pence and paul ryan. think about that. >> oh, my gosh. >> think about that. >> probably could go with the easter bunny i would think. >> that's why you got -- that's why have you to read the book. >> mark? >> so, what are the chances that a republican-controlled congress would actually impeach the president? i know they to want separate. it's one to politically separate, it's another to impeach. wouldn't that plunge the republican party into huge controversy? >> of course, but they're already into huge controversy. you've seen the recent polls with the plummeting standing of the republicans in congress and a recent poll showing even a majority of republicans no longer believe that congress needs to go along with the

trump -- >> most members are in districts where the president is overwhelmingly popular. >> we'll see. it doesn't take all the republicans. you got to understand this. assuming the democrats stand firm, only takes about two dozen republicans. you have many morehan that in vulnerable districts. >> allan lichtman. >> we'll see again in georgia exactly whether that's one -- >> we'll wait and see. allan lichtman, thank you very much. >> thank you, professor. >> we'll see you again. my goodness. can you read an excerpt on our website, morningjoe.msnbc.com. president trump is seeking to hold true to his america first campaign promise. today he will sign a two-fold executive order that will clamp down on guest worker visas and also require agencies to buy more goods and services from u.s. companies and workers. will he sign the buy american, hire american executive order during a visit today to the snap-on manufacturing company in wisconsin. it makes commonly used tools for

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♪ ♪ i'm dr. kelsey mcneely and some day you might be calling me an energy farmer. ♪ energy lives here. trump also weighed in on tomorrow's special election in georgia saying the super liberal democrat in the georgia congressional race tomorrow wants to protect criminals, allow illegal immigration and raise taxes. that's right.

congressle. someone is being tutored by betsy devos. >> in a moment we'll be joined by atlanta's mayor on the fesab the special election in his state. first, sara eisen. president trump iset to sign that on his america first policy. what can you tell us about it? >> it's a two-pronged approach. the goal, buy america, hire america. it gets at immigration and gets at buying american goods and services. on the immigration, it orders a review for the h-1-b visa program. a program very popular in silicon valley for tech companies. it allows 85,000 foreign workers to be hired in the u.s. in highly skilled jobs with u.s. companies. now, technology companies for a long time have wanted that program expanded. all this does not offer much clarity on the changes but orders a review on how they are

going to make changes. prince, they could be looking at changes to the lottery system which determines which u.s. companies get to hire some of the foreign workers and sponsor those visas. the other provision is a little more definite. it requires government agencies to buy american and hire american services. also look at potential trade deals and trade relationships when it comes to buying foreign products. speaking of trade, mother business agenda for the administration, vice president pence is in japan talking to his counterpart about economic cooperation, playing up the odds of a two-way trade deal from the u.s. to japan. for reference, it's something that japan didn't exactly want. they wanted more of a ttp style trade deal but something this administration certainly wants to get at. one sticking point, u.s. has a $69 billion trade deficit with japan and that is something we

know president trump repeated will he has taken aim at, wants to close that gap. also wanted to mention earnings because they're coming hot and heavy here. netflix reporting it's up a bit. interesting factoid from netflix, a sign of how much netflix has changed the game, guys. it's approaching 100 million global subscribers. hbo has 143 million subscribers around the world. but netflix is adding them. right now the key for investors, it's adding them abroad as it continues to expand internationally. another factoid i had no idea. adam sandler movies are apparently so popular right now on netflix that users spend 500 million hours watching the three adam sandler movies produced. >> i'm sorry, wait a second. are we talking about -- are we talking about his old movies or new? >> these are new movies that he produced in conjunction with

netflix. apparently you're not the core netflix user because we did the math. it turns out about five hours plus prescriber is being spent watching these new adam sandler movies. i don't even know the names of them. they didn't advertise them much. it's got a lot of fans. >> he's bringing the average way up. >> no, but that's pretty crazy. i didn't know that. >> sara eisen, thank you. >> people are excited about adam sandler movies, thank you. >> who knew. >> i'm missing out. >> the old ones are great. >> "happy gilmore," you got your ten commandments, you got your "happy bigilmore" and "wedding crashers ". >> and "billy madison". >> yeah, we understand that. >> those are the old classics, man. >> anyway -- >> the new movie is "the

ridiculous six," i'm told. >> that's terrible. >> it would be great. >> netflix is unbelievable, though. >> by the way, i don't -- you take all the that are watching the adam sandler movies, i have seen "the crown" along with kate, more hours than all of that combined. >> more than a billion hours. >> more than a billion hours. we like "the crown" that and "sher locke". >> donald trump was up before dawn this morning tweeting about today's special election in georgia that could say a lot about how voters view his early presidency. he tweeted, democrat jon ossoff would be a disaster in congress, very weak on crime and illegal immigration, bad for jobs and wants higher taxes. say no. followed by, republicans must get out today and vote in georgia six. force runoff, easy win. dem ossoff will raise your taxes very bad on crime and second day. joining us now the mayor of atlanta, georgia, democrat cassim reid, good to have you on board this morning.

>> good morning. >> how is it looking? >> the president, mr. mayor, says it's going to be an easy win for republicans? >> you know, we like to say that georgia is on your mind, clearly jon ossoff is on the president's mind. >> yeah. >> we think that's a good thing. the fact of the matter is he's running a terrific campaign. the ground game here looks very strong. and the last trackers we've seen over the last 48 hours have him at about 45, 46, so withery strong turnout, we think it's within reach. no matter what he's going to win tonight, and we think he's going to win the election. we feel real good. >> go ahead, willie. >> willie geist, good to see you this morning. talk to the people at home watching not from the atlanta area about the sixth congressional district. we've been speaking about some of the stats out of there, it's been republican since newt beginni gingrich got the seat 40 years ago. elected mitt romney -- voted for mitt romney with 23, 24% margin but donald trump only 1% margin

last fall. what's happening in that district right now. >> first of all it's becoming more diverse. it's a very affluent district. but it's becoming increasingly diverse. here's the deal, the fact of the matter is, this is the seat that newt gingrich to the house as speaker, this is the seat that sent senator isaacson to the united states senate and this is seat that sent secretary price to the president's administration. and a typical republican should be winning this seat by 20, 24 points and as we stand here right now, jon ossoff is winning it with 45 to 46% of the vote after president trump won it by a point. something is definitely happening in the district and in georgia and it feels good here. >> do you think, mr. mayor, ossoff clears the 50 point barrier today, or do you think that happens in a a runoff when he goes head-to-head with the republican? >> it depends on how the rest of the day goes. it is within reach. but no matter what happens

today, it's going to be a strong win for democrats. this is -- this district isn't in the 70 most competitive districts in the united states of america. and right now, jon ossoff is winning it. so we're not going to let the president or republicans who spent $4 million attacking jon ossoff turn a win into a loss by raising the standards so high. this shouldn't be close. i shouldn't be on "morning joe." you all shouldn't even be talking about this race. right now, jon ossoff is going to win tonight and then he's going to close it out. >> mike barnicle. >> what's the driving issue or issues in this campaign? what's pushing this thing? >> i think that folks want a true bipartisan elected official working on solving problems in congress. i think that they like that jon ossoff is a fresh face, but he also has a depth of knowledge when it comes to policy and i think that they like his focus on growing our technology sector, which was recently

talked about in "forbes" magazine as one of the most exciting and top three emerging technology sectors in the country. a lot of that would be in jon ossoff's congressional district. >> all right. >> mayor reed, thank you very much. we'll see what happens. >> all right. >> let's take a look at the ground we've covered this morning. >> new polling from gallup has the president's approval rating at 40%. >>istorically a show of military force. you would think that would give him a couple points here o there. >> giving so much and tweeting so much, has he already burned out some of his supporters. >> put sunlight on things that haven't gone well. >> he has accelerated the pace of exhaustion. >> the lack of progress is what's holding his approval rating down. >> i think people are watching closely and like me, they're really disappointed. >> his core supporters that were there all the time are now kind of going like, wait a second, why am i fighting for this guy all the time?

>> the problem is the president is gutting the republican brands. >> everyone is unsure, it seems, in the field about what it means to be a republican. >> president trump called president erdogan to congratulate him on the victory. >> he seize power until 2029. >> i'm sure part of the reason they do it we have troops in turkey. >> in the preamble to the nato treaty three values are cited, democracy, individual rule of law and any drift from those values are disturbing signs. >> voters head to the polls this morning to cast their vote in a special election that is becoming a referendum on president trump. >> it's a huge field. there are 18 candidates. >> republicans end up winning this seat, there is only one way to score this as a massive democratic loss. >> and vice versa. if -- i mean, again, it's massive loss because trump only one by one point there, so if

they can't even pick up one point, that's a massive democratic loss. but if republicans lose, i mean, this is newt beginnigingrich's . tom price. >> that would be incredible. >> it's often we overstate the stakes but this one is a big deal because of the district, the candidates, the money, and because democrats, the democratic resistance is looking for wsnd they i can't wait until november of next year to get them if they keep momentum going. >> mike, either way it cuts, i would compare this to what happened in 2009 with scott brown and the race for ted kennedy's seat. >> there are similarities. i don't disagree with the importance of the election. i don't disagree with the huge win, huge loss. >> right. >> you know what happens. but i think sometimes we pay a little bit too much attention to win/loss and not enough attention to how people are living and the fears and anxieties that are still out there in the country.

>> one of the things going on in this race, the republicans, some of them are being supportive of the president but some are not. >> yeah. >> some are picking and choosing when to agree, at least one candidate is running against him. that is not a gret trump district that that's, again, just a snapshot of this the republican party divided. >> the president is waking up this morning to pretty dismal poll numbers. does he care? >> yeah, he cares. he cares about that more than anything this side of arnold schwarzenegger's ratings on "the apprentice" when schwarzenegger was doing the apprentice. >> something that struck me today, mark halperin said it a couple weeks ago and i disregarded it when he suggested if trump didn't pass health care reform, his entire legislative package might be stopped. those numbers are not going to go up if he can't pass what he needs to pass through congress and "the new york times" this morning saying that now tax reform is, if not dead on

arrival, close. >> not just "the new york times" steve mnuchin, his treasury secretary said we thought august we would get tax reform done that's not going to happen and he cited health care. others said start with taxes and infrastructure build coalitions get the support, persuade democrats because you will need them later. this is how you build an agenda. they went in early and hard on health care and failed on it and you're seeing these poll numbers flat overall and going way down in terms of keeping promises because these are the things that he said he would dos president are not happening. >> if you're a swing ver you're going wait a second, republicans own the house, republicans own the senate, republicans own the white house, republicans own the supreme court, and they can't pass a single piece of legislation that matters. >> that's incredible. >> in addition to that, you have, you know, what happened with health care and okay, we're going to refocus now on the tax reform package and yet the package last week says we're going go back and take another shot at health care.

>> and congratulations turkey's president. >> and then he congratulates an autocrat for pursuing an election. >> member of nato. look, he got a supreme court justice through and done other things but all that will be -- >> mitch mcconnell got the supreme court justice through. >> if the president passed tax reform or health care he could argue the full package. >> that's a big if. >> it's a big if, particularly because he's not -- i don't think he used the recess well. going to milwaukee to talk about jobs but i don't see where they build the coalitions right now. >> they still have nobody -- they still have nobody on his staff inside the white house that knows how to work congress. >> the congressional staff level they're pretty good. >> i'm talking about -- >> a big person -- >> anybody that can go to the president -- the congressional staff level is good but they don't have anybody to go mr. president, mr. president, you're not going to pass health care reform unless you can find 40 democrats to help you out. >> now you're down to it because who in past history past presidencies would perform that task of speaks to the president or calling the big guys on

capitol hill, it would be the chief of staff. >> uh-huh. >> he's not making that call. >> we leave you with a glimpse at what the president was doing and the vice president was doing yesterday. a little bit of a split screen for you. who do you think is in the bunny outfit? that does it for us this morning. >> the question hangs. the pregnant pause. and now we pass it along to stephanie ruhle. >> thank you. >> thank you. hi there, i'm stephanie ruhle. i will missed you i cameack because it is tax y, as americans pay up, many are pleading with the president to put up and show his taxes. the answer -- >> i think that he is still under audit, the statement still stands. >> president trump signing a new executive order today making it harder for companies to hire foreign workers. and the battle for georgia rages on. the