a good saturday evening to you. craig melvin here in new york as we continue our breaking news coverage of hurricane irma. you are looking at key west right now. conditions deteriorating in south florida in some cases rapidly. the eye wall now approaching the florida keys. this is a massive storm. it's expected to strengthen to a category four with winds reaching up to roughly 140 miles an hour near the center. tropical storm winds extending hundreds of miles. a devastating storm surge of up to 15 feet in some places. up to 25 inches of rain in some places as well. irma right now currently projected to head up florida's west coast which could put cities like naples and tampa directly in its path. we could also see extreme winds all the way into georgia as it moves north. some 7 million people have been urged to evacuate.

it is the largest evacuation in american history. this is the scene earlier in tampa, florida, as folks tried to get out of town. we heard from the governor a few minutes ago. some 76,000 are already without power in florida. millions expected to be without power. some of them perhaps for weeks. shelters already overflowing. they are opening new shelters in parts of south florida. the storm has been called historic, catastrophic, devastating, and deadly for a reason. it has already ravaged parts of the caribbean, slamming into cuba as a category five. this was the scene in st. martin. officials there saying 90% of the island has been all but destroyed, insisting they have never seen anything like it. moments ago florida governor rick scott delivering a stark message to residents, irma is

here. hurricane irma is already impacting florida. the heart of the storm is quickly approaching us. millions of floridians will be seeing impacts with life threatening winds tonight. tonight. if you have been ordered to evacuate you need to leave. now. this is your last chance to make a good decision. we have been very aggressive in our preparation for this storm. and now it's upon us. >> we start with the latest on the path. bill karins is standing by, nbc meteorologist in the weather center. where is it now and where is it headed? >> we have a forecast of the storm and it is a forecast until it gets on land. then it is the impacts from there on out. here's what i don't like. overnight it weakened from a cat five down during the day. now it's off theest co. the eye was looking ragged. look at the last couple of frames right there. the eye is trying to clear itself out. that's a sign that the core is trying to get its act together. we don't want this to get

stronger than it is. it's a huge storm already. we don't want it stronger in the eye. that will be more damage with winds. we'll get storm surge no matter what. 125 miles per hour winds. last night it was up to 160. cuba took a little bit out of it. it has time over warm water to get a little bit stronger. the latest with the path of the storm does take it unfortunately -- hasn't changed during the day today -- up the west coast of florida. here we are throughout sunday at 2:00 a.m. south of keys at 130. it goes back up. it was 125. that's up to a cat four. we'll take it over key west as we go from 8:00 or 9:00 in the morning. then we'll be dangerously close to marco island into the naples area. 140 miles per hour storm. the eye could be either over you or you could be in the eye wall come sunday afternoon. that's at the time the worst storm surge will be arriving along with the eye. that's the scariest time. you do not want to be in naples or marco island in a cat four

with a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet coming in during the middle of day. no one should be there unless you are in the safest of c concrete structures. the hurricane center has it coming inland to the right of tampa. this is critical. if we shift to the west you are on the dirty side of the storm and your surge will be worse than we are expecting now. that will be one of the stories we'll monitor. that's not until 2:00 a.m. monday. we have a good 24, 30 hours from now to worry about that. the thing that will cause the most significant damage that will not allow people to return to their homes will be the storm surge. 5 to 10 in the keys. it is the 10 to 15 feet, that's unimaginable. let me show you pictures. the last storms in the country with a storm surge like this, sandy did it to the jersey coastline. this is what 10 to 15 feet of storm surge will do. this is hurricane sandy in new jersey. that storm surge was 10 to 12 feet. hurricane ike did it in the gulf

on the boulevard peninsula north of houston. this was barrier island. what you are looking at is houses that were on stilts that got hit by a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet with the wave action. there are only four, five houses out of a hundred in the area that remain. that's the catastrophic damage that's going to be in the ft. myers area and naples with a population combined of 1 million people. that boulevard peninsula had maybe a thousand. try to fathom a storm surge in a highly populated area. it really hasn't happened. the worst storm surge with hurricane katrina was in northern mississippi, sleidel to the coast of alabama. that was hit hard, too. the storm itself, the wind field hats now expanded to the point where it's still south of cuba with tropical storm force winds. we are up to naples and miami with the first tropical storm

bands. the red we get hurricane gusts. that's when the power goes out in your area. that moves inland as we go throughout the overnight period here. let me get to the radar to show people the bands and the eye. this is the center of the storm. that's the eye. we have about a hundred miles to go. this is now approaching the marathon area. coming into the street and wave action there. that's how serious it's getting. we know this will be a huge catastrophe, multi billion dollar disaster because of the storm surge. unfortunately the way storm surge works it has a lot to do with the size of the storm. >> okay. >> this storm is huge. hurricane katrina was only a category three when it made landfall. it was a huge storm and produced this incredible storm sushrge tt did so much damage. that's what will happen in florida. even if it doesn't go up to a

four or five, doesn't matter. the storm surge is coming. >> chief concern isn't the wind or rain. it's the storm surge. do we know in terms of high tide when this thing will hit and how it might affect the surge? >> still trying to figure out the timing. because it slowed down a little bit, this time yesterday we were thinking we would get the landfall possibly early sunday. now it looks to be more sunday afternoon. high tide is late in the morning. but the way the florida peninsula works, the geography, the high tides are different. >> okay. >> i will look up specifically for marco island and naples. i have been meaning to. i'll get back to you on that. >> we'll come back to you in a few minutes. thanks so much. lester holt and al roker are both joining us now from ft. myers. again this is the left coast of florida. good to see you. what are the conditions like now? what were they like a few hours ago? >> remarkably we both made the trip from miami. you went overnight, i went this

morning. >> yeah. >> there was a lot of wind there. gusts up to 60 miles per hour. here it's been gusty but not a lot of rain. >> in fact, we were going to have a fairly decent sunset. just to the south of here there have been tornado watches and warnings which is something we have been talking about with this storm. that's the big problem when you get a vigorous tropical system on shore. you have the threat of tornadoes. unlike andrew which came across east to west four or five hours and was done, this one will be an all-day event. 24 hours. so the risk of tornadoes, besides the storm surge, besides the rain and wind, tornadoes are a real possibility for the next 24 hours as the system makes its way up in toward georgia. >> do you get the sense that folks have heeded the warnings to get out? >> well, that's an interesting question. i think they have. but remember earlier we were

talking about this that it looks like miami will take the hard hit or the east coast will get the worst of it. the entire state was at risk but the westward shift probably got people thinking now we need to go to shelters here. folks in this part of the state. >> in fact, we have seen a lot of people decided to hunker down in place. then they saw all of the sudden that there was this westward shift which we kept telling people this is something that could -- you can't focus on the line or where you see the little spinning hurricane symbols. you have to look at the cone of uncertainty. with the western coast of florida it was part of that. i think people were lulled into a false sense of security. when they saw it shift to right along the coast, oh, we have to get to shelters. now they have shelters where there are thousands of people in line. >> we saw it coming in. we all gasped. gabe gutierrez was here. we had the story on "nightly news." it's incredible the number of people waiting, trying to get

shelter. think how many millions in the state have been urged to take shelter. it's not easy. >> 5.7 million people, i think. it's an amazing feat when you think of it. it's gone fairly orderly but a lot of people especially on the west coast of florida, you know, had a false sense of security. >> you both have covered your fair share of hurricanes over the years. how does this one compare to hurricanes past? >> that's a hard question. we haven't seen it. >> right. >> you are looking at it more from what we are seeing on the computers. i'm seeing it based generally on what happens afterward. >> exactly. >> it's hard to know. the descriptions are dire. some of the descriptions i have heard remind me -- i will never forget flying into baton rouge before hurricane katrina. you were on the plane. >> yes. >> we got a warning from the weather service. very graphic terms of what could come. we are seeing some of that now. i will tell you it raises the hairs on the back of my neck. >> al, on "today" you mentioned

we should not be lulled into any sort of feelings of dodging a bullet because of the downgraded. you said you thought it would pick up steam over the warm waters between cuba and mainland florida. does that seem to be the case? >> yeah. absolutely. bill alluded to that. you've got between cuba and here water that's 85 to 90 degrees. it's not shallow. that warm water, very warm water goes down a fair amount. in fact, an unusually deep well of water. usually what happens when you get these systems coming across, there is an upwelling of water on the lower levels. that's usually colder and that cools things down. that warm water goes down, way down. even with the upwelling it's still going to be way above norle ma.

that's the fuel that fires up the hurricanes. we've got 115 miles between here and the keys and it's slowed down. so that's plenty of time for this thing to regenerate. as bill mentioned in the last frames of the satellite imagery you can start to see the regeneration of an eye wall. that's not good news. >> lester holt and al roker, ft. myers, florida, for us. thanks so much. we'd love to come back to you later if it's possible. >> thanks, craig. meanwhile, nbc's miguel alma gier -- alma gier is in florida city. looks like the rain picked up there. >> reporter: about a minute or two ago we saw heavy rain here. we have seen powerful winds. enough rain out here to get drenched in seconds. the bands are rolling in in spurts over the last several hours. we got here this morning and we have seen the weather intensify. not just the rain but also the

wind. actually at the police department here in florida city they told us earlier today later on this afternoon they would not be conducting any rescues. anyone that got trapped or was stuck would be on their own. they have told everyone in the area to evacuate. this is an area that did -- that may miss the brunt of the storm. even if it does they are still expecting powerful winds, fallout from the storm surge along the coast. they say they will do all they can to keep everyone here safe but as the day goes on as the conditions here deteriorate and they say in a matter of hours there will be life-threatening conditions here. they may not reach everyone. >> curfew in effect there? >> no curfew in effect. they expect everyone to be off the streets. we have been outside for several hours. there is some debris in the streets, mostly fronds from the palm trees. we have heard reports of wires down. for the most part the streets are empty. we have seen a car or two go by

over the last hour. looks like for the most part they are residents. they are not police vehicles. but we were spending time with the police chief a short time ago. he told us that nearly everyone here has battened down the hatches. they say this is a community that's been through several hurricanes. they are used to these conditions. he said he was glad the storm seemed to be shifting. was worried about folks in its path but believes the area will take a bad hit. >> florida city, florida. one of the top destinations for vacations in this country. miguel, thank you. we'll be coming back to you in a little bit as well. msnbc's chris hayes made his way to naples, florida, on the gulf coast. chris, what's the scene like where you are now? >> reporter: we are just starting to get the most remote outer bands of the weather. it's starting to fall here a little bit. naples is a place that like al and lester were talking about

the gulf coast got wrong footed and there is a palpable sense of that. on the drive here from south florida the miami area, lots of traffic headed the other way. people that were moving out of the storm to the northwest going back toward south florida. that's now outside of the band of the worst area hit. naples has shelters that are overfilled. there is concern about the damage that the storm surge will do here. we are looking at 10 or 15 feet. like bill karins said, very flat. the water will penetrate very deep into naples. >> chris, i think it's worth again talking about. you were down in miami for the special report. there are parts of florida that are more susceptible to flooding than other parts. talk to us a little bit about that and where those areas are and what you have found. >> you know, miami is particularly susceptible. miami is a constructed environment. it was a feat of engineering to make it happen. miami beach in particular. they get flooding numerous times

a year at high tide up through the limestone and floods the streets. another city, a city many people believe is the most susceptible to flooding in america is tampa. that's for a lot of reasons. tampa never sustained any kind of direct hit from a category four or anything like that in just about a hundred years. there is a lot of concern about what a big storm surge particularly up the coast shifting to the west a little bit. stays gathering its energy over the water and hits tampa, pushing the water up into the city. a lot of concern about flooding there. tampa really is -- in fact, next to houston and miami, those cities may be the three most susceptible cities with new orleans as well. >> chris hayes for us there in naples, florida. again, stand by if you can. we'd love to come back to you. despite evacuation orders, some folks decided to remain in vulnerable areas. among them fishing captain brian

cohn, a long-time resident of the florida keys. he operates a charter business and hopes to ride out the storm at his house south of key largo. we showed you one of his boats there. brian is on the phone with me. he's in tavernier, florida. why ignore the warnings we have been getting for five or six days now and decide to hunker down? >> truthfully the whole state of florida is in trouble. there is nowhere safe. we felt the structures we have in the neighborhood were already 12 feet above sea level, all cement houses with cement roofs, hurricane windows, shutters. we have our own hurricane fortress for that matter. we are right next to the high school which is probably the highest rated property in the whole upper keys and maybe even the whole keys.

we feel it was more dangerous to travel all over the state, run out of fuel, get in trouble coming back in or whatever. we decided we have enough neighbors. we have all decided to hunker down and make a group effort. we have good resources. doctors, nurses, lots of generators. we are going to ride it out. >> you mentioned your house is 12 feet above sea level on stilts. they are talking about storm surge of perhaps 15 feet. the math doesn't make sense. >> i don't think -- i would say 15 feet may be on the bay side. yes, it flooded here in the worst hurricane ever to 17 feet in the '35 hurricane. we also didn't have open bridges like we do now. we had a railroad that was pretty much a dam that stopped all the water from flowing over. it built up to 17 feet which was

the height of the railroad. so i think it is a different scenario in this day and age and the structures now are ten times stronger. i feel completely confident in the house we are in. >> with all due respect, brian, you're not an engineer, a meteorologist. why roll the dice like this? i think for a lot of folks listening and watching, the cost/benefit analysis doesn't make sense. >> well, i have seen what the storms have done in other locations. we made a group effort and decided this is the best and safest scenario for us. >> without putting yourself in harm's way what can you tell us about the conditions outside now? >> it's blowing 50 miles per hour and rainy. >> 15? 1-5? >> yes. no, no. 5-0. 50 miles per hour.

>> 50. >> yes, sir. >> and so far everything is holding up? >> we still have power. my kids are on the second level which is 23 feet above sea level. we're watching tv as we speak. >> what about -- >> there's five kids next door in the house next to us which is another cement fortress which is captain paul ross and his family. >> what about your boat? >> my boat we tied up on the bay side in one of the safest canals. i should have sent a picture of that. it was riding out the storm well as of an hour ago. i have a friend -- my high school baseball coach rich russell is riding it out. his house there on the bay another isle marada is a similar structure. he sent a picture of the boat saying looking good. >> to be clear for folks who may not be familiar with where you are, you are in an area where

governor scott has ordered an evacuation, correct? >> correct. >> god forbid something should happen, the storm surge should be higher than you are predicting personally and the water begins to rush in, what will you do then? >> i don't think the water will rush in where we're at. >> i gather that you don't think it's going to happen. you have established that. let's just say it does. then what? >> i don't think i have ever heard of a storm surge 40 feet high. there is a third story on this house. the bottom of it is 34 feet high. it still has a cement roof above it. >> and when the power goes out? >> then the power goes out. we are expecting the power to go out. we have battery power and everything. we'll have generators. we have them elevated already. i believe -- i have no issues

whatsoever where we're at. would i ride out a storm again? yes. where we're at. >> our meteorologist bill -- go ahead, brian. >> that's about it. go ahead. >> our meteorologist was just asking precisely where you were. i was telling him you're in key largo, just south? >> south of key largo, taverniers near the high school. it's a shelter a street over. >> bill, this is bill cone riding this thing out. >> brian, how high is your stilts? >> the ground level is 12 and a half feet. then it's stilts above that. the first is 20 feet. third level is 30 something feet. it's a fortress. >> this is where it gets interesting. the storm surge should be five to ten feet at his house. >> okay. >> technically if it's ten feet and he said they are at 11 feet with stilts on top. >> that's on the ground level.

>> okay. so your ground level may get water. that's like parking for a lot of people under the house. >> correct. >> he won't get water -- you won't get water in the first floor. so you are counting on the engineering of the stilts to be able to with stand however many hours of water and the soil and the concrete poured underneath to hold up the house for the most part. >> yes. correct. >> that's the gamble you're taking. >> yes. this house also has a cement wall all the way around it. >> you're not concerned with the wind. maybe you could lose some of the roof. >> the roof is a cement-poured roof. 14 inches thick. >> all right. >> brian has given this considerable thought, bill. >> some people do have their homes. people with the money and resours can build homes to with stand category four and five storms. >> exactly. >> there are shelter where is the police will stay in these towns that are built purposely for that reason.

>> i have plenty of police officers and firefighters and they said we wouldn't mind staying in the house we're in. it is a bunker. in fact, they all said if something gets cz s scar by we come that way. if i saw it was a cat five coming here directly at the point when it was off cuba, i would probably think twice and evacuate to miami immediately. >> okay. >> brian cone, we want to check in with you throughout the night if you still have power. be safe, okay? >> i'll have my cell phone. we have battery backups. >> okay. >> i hope you have water for seven days. a gallon of water per person per day. >> you have no idea how much we have. we're fishing captains. we have coolers full. >> sounds like he knows what he's doing. >> thank you, brian. >> there are people who aren't like him that will need rescuing because they aren't prepared or maybe in the days ahead they don't have enough food and water and they are stranded and

bridges are washed out. maybe he's fine. i'm sure his local emergency manager would wish he'd get out of there. it's one more body to worry about. >> sam champion is standing by in miami now. sam, what are the conditions like now? >> i have to tell you, craig, that entire conversation just really disturbed me a great deal. bill is right and there are people who spent great amounts of money to build storm structures on the keys because hurricanes are a fact of life. there is a desire to be able to man made engineer safety through the worst that mother nature can deliver. it hurts my heart to hear someone and a group of people decided to test that theory with their lives. is it possible if you have the structure he described, 13 inch

concrete walls, 30-foot high parapet. i have heard of those structures. i have seen them. is it possible? yeah. but there is another conversation that's going on. the last coup of hours ago we talked to a woman who decided to ride it out in a basic home structure. i don't want to give anyone confidence that you can ride out a storm in a structure. bill was right to point out, look, i know what your walls are like. but you are believing that this constant pounding of water for what will be eight, ten hours of waves up against and trying to undermine what's going on under that structure that you have so proudly created as humankind. you are relying on that foundation to hold you in place. it's a gamble. it's a risk. i get it. you get to make the choice.

we have freedom to do that. i don't want anyone else to think that's such the exception. that's such the rarity on the keys. we barely have time now -- if you are listening to us now and you are in the keys and you realize you don't have a structure like that to gamble with, you've got two things to beat with this storm. you have to beat the wind. you've got to beat the water. if you can't get up and you can't protect yourself then i really need you to call the authorities that are still down there and ask for help on getting out of there. this is a rapidly deteriorating situation. it will go on for an entire day where you are. it will test -- as good as you think the strength of your structure is and even if storms have ridden through -- even if buildings have ridden through storms before, this is a different storm. >> yeah.

>> this is a four going right over, craig. i'm really disturbed. >> i can tell. >> it hurts me in a great way. >> you know, sam -- go ahead. >> just because i also know that there are people who are sitting there who don't have the luxury of that structure. they are sitting there thinking, you know, if he's riding it out, i can. >> exactly. >> we talked to people yesterday who were on their boats saying, look at this. this is just a little rain band. this is just -- we are in miami. we are not even getting the worst of the storm. but this will be going on all day tomorrow. you know? i want people to realize we are just trying to help you save your life. >> amen to that. sam champion in miami where he also lives. sam, we'll come back to you in a

bit as well. we'll be with you throughout the course of the storm. our coverage will continue right after this.

we are back as we continue to follow preparations for hurricane irma. that category three storm going to be bearing down on the keys here in a few hours. joined now by nbc news correspondent gotti swartz at the public safety headquarters

in islamorada. >> we are seeing the first of the hurricane force winds. they come and go in gales. they will see sustained hurricane-force winds. out there that stop sign won't last the night. we have seen trees falling in the area. we are taking shelter by this big building. this is islamorada village offices. this is an interesting place. in fact, we are joined here by one of the captains from the sheriff's department. this is cory bryan. nice and not so windy in here. this building is pretty much bomb-proof, it feels like. >> pretty much. category five rated building. we share it with the fire department here. our guys are here. firemen are also stationed here also. during the storm they have actually brought in a few more guys out here. >> we were talking earlier. we'd love for you to show us

around. we're going to get out of here after this. i don't know if we'll get cut off from the mainland. if you could show us what you're working with. >> sure. ground floor here. we have the kitchen and everything for the firemen, bays for the trucks. >> second floor is where we need to go. just in case the water level comes up you have contingency plans. >> exactly. that's the plan. starting with any type of sea level rise, rainwater coming in. we have the second floor. we have guys bunked here. this is are offices for the planning department and stuff. we have taken over the building. >> you have people sleeping in offices. >> right. >> there are lawyers here and this is planning and development services. >> right. the guys have taken some offices, set up mattresses. we'll look at those. yeah. basically just kind of running the whole show here now. >> wow.

we have some of the guys here. howdy. hey guys. with msnbc. thank you very much for your service. you look dry. i know it will be a late night here. >> yes, sir. >> reporter: thank you, guys. these over here are cubicles. >> correct. >> reporter: oh, wow. >> like i said, the planners and stuff. building department and everything are in here. building attorney is down here. the guys that just basically -- >> reporter: these are blow-up beds. >> we have grills out back and everything. firemen are cooking everything for us down stairs. we have a good set-up. this is a good building to be in. >> reporter: let me ask you this. what happens to your families? what happens to the family members of the emergency crews in a dire situation like this? i know it's difficult to worry about your family and also take care of the public safety. >> our plan like with sheriff ramsey, we have a plan where everybody has to get out. we try to get the families taken

care of. they will either shelter in another area because we can't bring them to our shelters. it's difficult like you see here. we are swamped with people. the building isn't designed for this. it's office space. so we are already packed in here. the family members have either evacuated or they have places they are staying in the keys already. >> reporter: let me ask you. what's it looking like in the keys and what are you expecting? >> right now things are bad just because of the wind. you guys experienced it outside. everything is supposed to start picking up. probably around 8:00 it will get worse. i think the hurricane-force winds will start around midnight. we'll run probably until 8:00 or so in the morning. i'm sorry. about 12:00 in the afternoon. we are looking at almost 12 hours of storm and stuff, hurricane-force winds. after that it will die down to the tropical force. this is what you are experiencing now. >> reporter: wow. hurricane-force winds. you don't feel it here.

it's weird. we were just outside. we have been blown around all day. to be in here, you don't hear what's going on outside. it's kind of nice. is there -- with the fire apparatus, can you guys operate it? can you go out in some of the hurricane-force gales if you get a call, let's say, during the worst of the storm will you be able to respond? >> they won't, no. they don't and neither do we. 45 miles per hour, we are off the road. all calls are suspended. the dispatch center is moved to a safer location also. no calls for service ar are happening. they log it. afterwards they try to get back to -- if it's a burglary call or something. >> reporter: how many people are still in the area? how many people didn't evacuate? >> we did a count last night. we were talking earlier. i want to say around 700 or so for the village area. for the keys i'm not sure. >> reporter: got it. thank you very much. we'll get out. i know that one is getting

tricky. we'll go back to the mainland and check back in a couple of days. thank you very much. that's the latest here. back to you, craig. >> who's the photographer? who's holding the camera? >> this is nico. it's his first day. this is trial by hurricane. he just joined the nbc team. he's doing a phenomenal job. he's been amazing. >> glad we snatched him up. i'm not sure who we stole him from. people at home may not fully appreciate how difficult what he just did there really is. welcome to the peacock. be safe, my friend. we'll check in. >> thanks, craig. i'll give him a hug now. >> we are going to get an update from ed rappaport with the national hurricane center. we'll dig deep into this thing. take a look at where it is now. where it's going and some of his projections. our coverage of hurricane irma

continues right after this.

nbc's maya rodriguez is standing by for us in miami. this was the scene in miami a short time ago. you can see hurricane irma and those winds we spent so much time talking about.

this is the effect of the winds. again, folks, this is just the beginning. maya rodriguez, where are you? >> we were in downtown miami a short time ago. of course miami instituted a curfew at 7:00 p.m. we moved inland not far from the airport now. we are out of the storm surge area so to speak. i can tell you just within the last 15 or 20 minutes, we have seen a series of electrical transformers basically pop off in the distance. we saw an entire section of miami go dark right behind me. clearly people are losing power. we had torrential rains here. just sheets of rain. of course the winds have been picking up all day. they are strong now. earlier you heard chris hayes talking about how florida was engineered. especially the miami area. part of it has to do with a series of canals. a canal runs behind me called the tamiami. it connects to the miami river.

that river connects out to biscayne bay and the atlantic ocean. the big concern is what's going to happen with the storm surge? where will all of the water go if, in fact, it is pushed in, pushed up the river and pushed over into the canals. we have the south florida water management district that keeps an eye on the canals and where the water is going. you know, the storm surge situation isn't just a concern on the coast. anyone on a waterway that could be affected. craig? >> maya rodriguez in miami. again, folks who aren't familiar perhaps with that beautiful city. i'm partial to miami. that's where i got engaged. my wife and in-laws had a house there until a few years ago. in miami it will flood on a random tuesday afternoon. there are parts of the city that are quite prone to flooding. maya, we'll come back to you in a bit. the national hurricane center will issue its next advisory on irma at the top of the hour. that's roughly 15 minutes from

now. joined from the national hurricane center in miami. this is acting director ed rappaport. i appreciate you carving out a few minutes for us. i know you're busy. has anything changed dramatically with the storm over the past hour or so? >> not in the past hour or so. but we do think the turn towards the north which is going to put the florida keys and then the west coast of florida in danger is about to occur. we think that the center of the hurricane, the m here, a major hurricane category three, four, five will be coming ashore in the lower to middle keys near day break tomorrow. >> it's taking a turn north ward here. that's again what we thought would happen as of a few hours ago. no surprise there. >> that's right. we have been talking about it for the last several days. didn't know if it would be east coast over the peninsula or west coast. it's not going to be over the

west coast but preceded by land fall. the keys, five to ten feet of storm surge. that's the greatest risk, greatest concern. this is video and damage seen from previous storms. this is what storm surge looks like. >> do you expect changes in strength or the path soon? besides the turn to the north. >> right now the hurricane is a category three winds. expect minor changes over the next 6 to 12 hours. we think they will be strengthening as the hurricane approaches the keys and the southwest coast of florida tomorrow. >> let's talk about the storm surge. i'm not sure folks fully understand what we are talking about here. five, 10, 12 feet. what are the practical effects of that? what does storm surge like that mean for communities in those lower lying areas? >> the storm surge is the rise of water along the coast as the

wind pushes the water to the shoreline. five to ten feet means that's the amount of water that's going to be above ground level at the coast where it normally the water ends. you have five to ten feet. that will progress inland as well. on top of that we have very high and sometimes damaging powerful waves. so we have a rise of the water as well as waves on top of that. that's why we have the greatest concern along the coast and the florida keys in particular. this area in red here is the entire area that's at risk from storm surge from hurricane irma. >> ed rappaport, national hurricane center. ed, thank you so much for your time and thanks for the great work you guys are doing down there. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> joined now by senator bill nelson of florida. joining us from orange county which is, of course, home to orlando. senator nelson, thanks for your time, sir. what are the conditions like where you are and have you been

generally pleased with the preparations so far? >> very pleased. [ inaudible ] -- between all levels of government. a real shoutout to the national hurricane center and the national weather service. they have gotten very precise in their ability to project the track as well as the velocity of the winds. as you can see it's now turned into a west coast hurricane instead of an east coast. it was just a day and a half ago. we thought it was going up the east coast. the phenomenon of the storm surge that ed rappaport was talking about. when you look at it on the west coast if the eye is just off of the shore, all the counterclockwise winds are

shoving that water up into the bays like solid harbor. further north, tampa bay, that could be a big wall of water because once it gets up in the bay it has no place to go. it just walls up. >> senator, one of the chief concerns continues to be the gas shortage there in the state. we heard a number of reports over the past few days of gas stations running out of gas. there was a concern that after the storm had passed, there was still going to be a gas shortage because some of the tankers weren't going to get gas in. what do we know about the availability of gas in the state of florida? >> several days ago we put out an all hands on deck message about gasoline. that seems to have been fulfilled. but when you get into the aftermath of the storm with all the wreckage, with even street

signs torn down and it's hard to find locations, although gps will certainly help us. then you're going to need those long-term supplies and that's going to be a it is massive destruction all the way up and down the coast. >> governor rick scott has been crisscrossing that state for the better part of five days. seems like every time lou up on a television screen you see the governor there pleading with people to get out. this the largest evacuation in the history of this country. i know you and the governor pence are of different parties. what do you make of the way he has handled the lead up to this hurricane so far. >> well, of course, this is not the time for partisan politics. this the time for-of-body to come together in the aftermath

of the storm. i think the cooperation between the federal and state level is very, very good. let me give you an example. in new orleans, there was a problem of communication between a louisiana national guard and the military. that's fixed now. there's a one-star general appointed as a liaison between the two to make sure the communication is going. you see that up and down the line with fema. for example, i was in hillsboro, which is tampa emergency operations center. there's already a fellow in there from fema. he, by the way, was scheduled to go to texas. they held him back because irma was could go. they bret a number of female personnel and prepositioned supplies to come into the florida in the aftermath of the

storm. >> senator bill nelson, long time senator from the sunshine state. senator nelson, always good to talk to you, sir. thanks so much for your time. our thoughts and prayers continue to be with those in your state. our coverage of hurricane irma continues. we'll be through as the storm continues to make landfall there in florida and beyond.

hurricane irma getting ready to attack the state of florida. so far the largest evacuation in u.s. history. roughly 7 million people ordered to leave their homes by the governor of the state. there's an aircraft carrier on the way to the eastern part of that state. once the storm passes they want to make sure they have ships in place for the relief effort. a relief effort that's expected

to take some time. i'm joined by dr. rachel needle. she's on the phone. she's in west palm beach, florida. doctor needle, as i understand it, you and your family are riding this thing out at your house in west palm beach. i think egg we'we've got pictur dorgs and windows boarded up to with stand the wind. a curfew there to protect residents. i know you're inside heeding this curfew. what's the scene like outside there in palm beach? >> it's starting to get a little bit windy. we can't see much as we're pu hunkered down inside with shades up. we can't see. wind speeds, we open the dpranlg door now and then. we're under a tornado warning so we're staying inside. >> why did you guys decide to

wait this out. >> i live in as county that's well prepared. i have a lot of family in the area, it's difficult. many of us have businesses and people who depend on us. we wanted to be with them as well. as with anything, i think, you know, i had to weigh my options and make a decision that was best for myself and my family. i think staying here was that disilg decision. >> are you in an area ordered to evacuate? >> no, i'm not in a mandatory evacuation area. >> so it was an option. >> a lot of people did choose to leave. i think whatever decision for each of us. >> are you scared? >> it's a little nerve-racking, sure, not knowing what to happen. i see things are slowing down a little bit. but definitely scary. >> the precautions that you've taken for the house, walk me through some of the things you've done. we just showed some pictures there. >> sure.

we put all the shutters up to cover the windows in case anything pelosi away so we don't get h -- we stocked up on food in case we lose electricity, which does happen in our area. made sure everyone was together to support each other and be prepared for anything that might happen. >> who is in the house with you? >> right now it's my grand father, my stepfather and my mother and i. >> your grandfather, how old is he? >> sees 95. >> how are you passing the time? >> watching a movie, board games and watching msnbc. >> we certainly like to hear that. dr. needle, thanks for joining us. dr. needle in an area where there's not a mandatory having a wags. >> right. >> she's decided to ride it out

because of her 95-year-old grand father and other family members, the difficulty she would have transporting them. we would like to check back in with you later if that's okay, dr. needle. >> absolutely. thanks so much. >> again, folks, we are approaching the 8:00 hour here. bottom of your screen, you're taking a look at the track of hurricane irma. we heard from national hurricane center just a short timeing a as expected the hurricane itself is if the process of shifting north, turning north. the middle of florida expected to get a bit of a direct hit. the right coast there not expected to perhaps be hit as hard as some of the experts thought it would be just a few days ago. a few moments ago, we heard from florida senator bill nelson updating us on the response. so far he's pleased with fema's involvement with the national guard. some 7,000 national guardsmen

have already been called out in apartments patience of the storm striking. governor rick scott earlier today via twitter, with an urge ebit call for furz, aski-- urge nurses, 1,000 nurses. 8:00 on the east coast, 5:00 on the west. we want to reset here for our viewers and listeners who might just be joining us. craig melvin in new york. we're expecting an update from the national weather service any moment now. so keep it here when we have that for you. we want to pass it to you. i'm looking for pill cairns to wave his hand once we have it. we have it? >> yes. >> governor scott here just a few moments ago as we get to that update in just a few moments. here is governor pence scott. >> i don't think anybody alive today has ever seen in this state