>> that's all for this episode of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thanks for watching. . good morning. i'm dara brown in new york at msnbc world head quarter. 7:00 in the east and 4:00 out west. new ripple effects from the president's health care decision. why some say the timing couldn't be worse. also, the president's complicated relationship with his own party. why she's fighting publicly with some and socializing with some. mar vi weinstein expelled from the academy of motion pictures of arts and science zblo. and we begin with health care. a new analysis found the president's move to end a key provision of obamacare will impact some of the people who

put him in office. 6 million people benefit from the cost sharing subsidies and those subsidies are used to hem low income americans pay for out of pocket costs. 70% of them live in states trump won in november. meanwhile as the president solicits congressional support for health care, he was seen golfing with senator lindsey graham. the pair went golfing yesterday for the second time in about a week. joining me now, jonathan allen, a national political reporter for nbc news digital. jonathan, i want to start with you. your recent article "trump's estrangement from the gop one republican at a time." how do you interpret president trump and lindsey graham playing golf for the second time in recent days after the president has gone to verbal war with graham's esteemed colleague bob corker. >> it's really interesting. president trump's tactics lead

him to excoriate republican senators whether it's mitch mcconnell or bob corker of tennessee, jeff flake of arizona. in this case lindsey graham who he's fought with many times before is now playing golf with him. president trump is looking for people willing to make deals on important pieces of legislation, on important topics of concern for the administration. people who also give him cover and legitimacy on things and i think he's looking at senator lindsey graham as someone who can help him in the senate. he's happy that graham was trying to be helpful with john mccain during the health care debate. one thing that's true of senator graham is he wants to be close to the president of the united states. he advised barack obama several times and now with trump in office would like to be close to that power too. >> sean, what's president trump's angle on golfing with senator graham. i'm trying to get an ally in the senate. and how critical is that in.

>> it's critical because he he doesn't have a lot of close allies. it looks like he has more enemies and enemies in the making even within his own party. the first few months of the trump administration and the new republican government in congress. the relationship between the white house and the republicans in congress has gonl gotten worse. we've seen the fight between the president and senator bob corker. we've seen the relationship between mitch mcconnell and president trump become very very toxic. and you see a lot of rank and file republicans increasingly nervous and uneasy with some of the president's actions. so if the president is going to have any hope of passing any big sweeping legislative achievement that the republican party can run on in the midterm elections next year, he's going to have to start repairing these relationships. we're seeing that and he's trying to, you know, mix business and pleasure and have these social outings with some of these lawmakers. lindsey graham, twice a week

he's playing golf with him. that's somebody with deep serious ideological policy differences with the president and he hat been shy about expressing those shoes both as a candidate against trump and as a senator in the last few months. >> your most recent article senator ted cruz said the gop could face watergate blowout if tax reform are not accomplished. what does that mean? >> you're seeing republican donors, strategists and lawmakers increasingly raise alarm bells about what might happen next year and they're saying look, we might lose the house, we might lose the senate. we might see a historic wave election against this. i was at a donor meeting in new york where senator cruz made the remar remarks. the donors are nervous too saying look, if we don't get tax

reform down, the base is going to be depressed. they might not show up at the polls and we might not write checks for incumbents. there's a lot of concern in the republican par that if they don't have a sweeping achievement to run on they could be looking at a really brutal election next year. >> jonathan, on to the president's rolling back of obamacare subsidies, nearly 70% of those benefits from the cost sharing subsidies live in states that trump won last november. is that reality going to sink in for the trump supporters and if so, when? >> i think it will for people who find they're not getting the cost share subsidiesubsidies. it will be interesting to see as you drill down further who within those states is being effects and to the extent they actually were trump voters rather than just living in states that trump won. there are a lot of trump voters who are affected by this. i think the idea that you're

going to jack up premiums under your own voters is a tough political pill to swallow. it's part of the sort of the untold story of obamacare, which is that president obama's party decided to provide benefit to a lot of people who weren't actually their voters with oba a obamacare so undoing that is very difficult for president trump and republicans in congress who are trying to do the same thing. very difficult for them to do without paying a political price. >> in today's washington post the headline "timing of white house actions, unrolling pca couldn't be worse." why? why is that? >> we're looking at a time when these insurers are nervous about the year ahead. they're looking at try to set their rates in for the next year. and now you've got a whole different situation where premiums are expected to go up, a lot of analysts predict as a

result of trump's actions and now we're not sure whether certain counties and parts of the country will have coverage under these marketplaces as a result of this action. we could see ultimately down the road fewer people having insurance coverage as a result of this. and i think this is something that makes republicans on capitol hill nervous because now the republican party sort of owns this in a way that they haven't before because they blame problems on health care, on obamacare and on the democrats who voted for that bill and on president obama himself. it will be interesting to see in the coming months how the republican lawmakers deal with this. do they come up with an alternative fix on capitol hill to make the subsidies permanent or provide subsidy coverage in the future. but a lot of republicans see this as a political headache in addition to the policy problems they anticipate. >> if we take a step back and look at the administration moves this past week, it's all about undoing the obama legacy on the

eca, the epa and iran. might this have the opposite effect? might it bolster the former president's legacy? >> it's certainly possible. it's hard to predict exactly how history will view this moment. i think one thing that is a lesson from the obama administration that we're learning from the trump administration right now is that if you do a lot of things by executive order, whether that's protecting children who were brought here illegally, the d.r.e.a.m.ers , do that by executive order, whether it was the iran nuclear deal essentially done by the executive without congress, some of the things of the aca done, implemented by health and human services secretary rather than by the statute itself which allowed hhs to shape the bill. what you see is that if an executive does something that makes the executive come along and try to strip that away easily, laws are much more permanent. >> sean sullivan, jonathan

allen, more from both of you in just a few minutes. two women from the uk are now accusing film mogul harvey weinstein of rape. she told scotland yard that weinstein attacked her at her home. and sara smith claims she was assaulted by weinstein at the miramax offices in west london in 1992. a spokesman is quoted saying mr. weinstein unequivocally denies allegations of nonconsensual sex adding mr. weinstein has begun counseling, listening to the community and pursuing a better path. the academy of motion picture arts and sciences have voted to expel weinstein. anne thompson has more. >> the board of governors voting immediately to ek pell the most powerful feared producer saying the era of sexually pred tear behavior and workplace

harassment in our industry is over. >> was there an element of payback that's possible here? >> there's a huge element of payback for the years of not only the sexual abuse against these women, which is horrible, but also the emotional abuse that he sort of welded on this industry. >> nearly three dozen women have accused weinstein of sexual harassment or misconduct. the latest, access evan green. she claims weinstein was inappropriate during a business meeting in paris, telling variety i had to push him off. i got it away without it going further but the experience left me shocked and disgusted. in an interview, bob weinstein's estranged brother and business partner said he would cooperate with any police investigation of harvey. my brother is one who should pay with everything, and i mean literally whether it's criminal or otherwise. i will supportive of of that. bob weinstein has talked to

harvey twice since the scandal broke saying that harvey has no remorse whatsoever. he insists that the weinstein company board didn't know the extent of harvey's actions and if harvey plans to challenge his firing, he can fight. it will be a losing fight. now to the latest on the raging wildfires in northern california where the death toll has risen to at least 40 and authorities fear that number will increase. the whereabouts of 74 people in napa county still unknown. firefighters are battling 17 large fires consuming 220,000 acres. the fire is now stretching at least 100 miles. while a new estimate of the overall wild card is put at $3.5 billion, the mayor of santa rosa estimates his city alone has incurred danmages of $1.2 million. that's where morgan is. >> reporter: this is the heart of the evacuation zone.

it looks like a ghost zone. car like this gutted and hollowed out by fire. this morning the residents are waking up trying to pick up the pieces. >> sheriff's office! >> reporter: first responders go door to door. >> sir! you got to go! >> reporter: body cam footage released shows them pulling victims from their home. >> where are you at? >> he's disabled. >> let me get her feet. >> reporter: but for david gosselin --. >> there is no houses, nothing left. >> reporter: there was no warning. this is the first time he's seen his home since the flames erupted while he was sleeping. his family narrowly escaped with their lives. >> my wife woke me up. it was a firestorm. >> reporter: their once cherished home reduced to rubble. >> it was the only extraextrava. we don't travel.

we drive old cars. but we had a beautiful house we couldn't afford when we moved into it. >> reporter: theirs one of the 5700 structures scorched across the state. coroners are going door to door combing through the ash. >> we're not out of the woods and have work to do. >> reporter: winds threaten to reignite the very flames that destroyed more than 200,000 acres, 10,000 firefighters scramble to save what's left. meanwhile families like the gosselins spend another night away from home. >> okay. so it's a house. but we're alive. >> reporter: feeling devastated by lucky. already 100,000 people have been evacuated. as 10,000 firefighters continue to battle the flames. >> thank you. our next guest will tell me the biggest problem with president trump's decision to decertify the iran deal. the message this sends america's enemies and allies up next. >> tech: don't wait for a chip like this to crack your whole windshield.

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the current language of the administration, the lack of a diplomatic and serious engagement strategy in my view has it sliding toward war by next summer. >> required army general barry mccaffrey there not mixing words when it comes to president trump's rhetoric about north korea. joining me now is colonel jack jaco jacobs. let me ask you about what we just heard. do you agree? are we sliding into world war i iii by next summer in. >> the war didn't end. we have a cease fire but no arm cyst. and we've lost soldiers since then and the south koreans have as well. there's been shootings there and incidents in the past.

but what general mccaffrcafee i saying that it's driving the possibility of an actual increase in the situation outside of our control. and part of that is going to be as a result of not being able to convince our allies in the region, particularly south korea, that we're serious about defending them, that we're serious about doing things to reduce tensions and so on. and that's going to make it much more likely that there will be a very bad incident between north and south korea and perhaps our own troops in south korea in the near future. it's entirely possible. >> there there real back channel communications going on with north korea as secretary of state tillerson suggested or has president trump put a stop to that? >> we do have back channel communications. they've been going on and off for some time. sometimes they bare mediate

fruit but sometimes they amount to nothing. one thing that donald trump said that is correct is that no matter how much you deal with north korea, no matter how much you talk with them behind closed doors, nothing is going to come of it because north korea wants to produce and keep nuclear weapons and you're not going to be able to change that. >> on friday president trump announced that he's decertifying the multinational nuclear pack with iran so that americans can obtain better deal but he stopped short of entirely pulling out of the deal. and apparently advisers told him it's in the u.s. national security interest to keep the deal in place? >> well, we could have gotten a better deal, i suppose, had we worked harder at it. there's no doubt that we really wanted a deal and as a result we gotd this de got this deal. if you want something bad, that's how you're going to get it. the train has left the station. it's going to be extremely difficult to change that now.

our decertifying the deal, decertifying iran is merely going to have everybody else ignore us and there's in way we're going to be able to control iran without everybody else being on our side and they are not. so decertifying the deal is going nowhere fast. >> you said it would be difficult to change but is it possible to at this stage renegotiate any part of that deal? >> unlikely without everybody else's concurrence. don't forget that our own allies supported this deal in the first place. we can't be alone, everybody else is going to have to support it too. and our allies are not going to support our getting out of the deal. that's not going to happen i don't think. >> colonel jack jacobs, thanks for joining me. would republicans prefer a president pence right now over the current commander in chief? we'll have some answers coming up next.

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larry flint, the found her of hus her mag deen is taking aim at president trump. flint took out a full page ad in the washington post where he's offering $10 million on credible information that leads to the impeachment of the president, asking for trump information, records from the president's investments or any secret dealings with the russians that would provide a smoking gun. joining me again is sean sullivan and jonathan allen. this seems to be a publicity stunt with rpt to president trump and impeachment. do gop members believe that they could be better off with a president pence? >> well, i think -- >> there's certain -- >> steve. sean, i'm sorry. >> i think that there is some trepidation that is increasing on the hill right now when it comes to republicans. you know, when we heard from bob corker in that striking

interview that he gave with "the new york times" a few weeks ago and he's talking about the potential of world war iii, the concerns that he voiced are concerns that republican lawmakers on the hill have privately voiced. i think there's a certain comfort level they have with pence. here's somebody they've worked with on the hill, here is somebody they trust, more similar to them in terms of political background, in terms of you know understanding how things work. and so i think there's generally a comfort level with pension that there doesn't seem to be with the president. >> and jonathan, here's steve bannon yesterday, trump is going to win 400 electoral votes and be reelected in 2020. let's listen to this. >> president trump is not only going to finish this term, he's going to win with 400 electoral votes in 2020. >> what is more likely as we sit here on october 15th of 2017, president trump reelected with the electoral votes or impeachment sometime before

that? >> i think that winning reelection is certainly more plausible than impeachment removal from office at this point particularly with a republican house of representatives and republican control of the senate. seems like a high bar to remove the president from office. then again winning with 400 electoral votes means he's going to get into deep plblue territo. not sure what the trump team's plan is to win california. i'm just ready now for the trump response to larry flint. >> it will be interesting indeed. sean sullivan thank you so much. jonathan allen, thanks for being here. that will do it for me. i'm dara bruin. thanks for watching. at the top of the hour, al sharpton talks to former obama's chief of staff on how the

administration compare to the previous one. stay with us. we have a busy day ahead. but first "your business" is up next.

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