in florida. i personally think he owes us a thank you. have you noticed you're not hearing too much about russia? to the president, i would say now is a good time to get some things done in congress. >> ooh. so the president of the united states hampered by questions of collusion should thank an accused pedophile and u.s. senate canned at a time for changing the conversation, for being the distraction. roy moore's wife thinks so and it's making republicans in washington very, very nervous this morning. good morning, everyone. it is monday, november 20th. welcome to "morning joe." hello, "morning joe." with us, we have veteran columnist mike barnicle. and associate editor of commentary magazine noah rothman. former treasury official and "morning joe" economic analyst steve ratner and in washington,

white house reporter for usa today, heidi pryzbyla. good to have you all. >> heidi, the roy moore story is not going away for republicans. and it seems that donald trump is trying to have it both ways. or maybe no way at all. how nervous are republicans on the hill right now, especially in the senate, about this race? >> think about this, joe. that their best option at this point, just tactically, in terms of keeping this seat in the hands of republicans, would be, at this point, since they can't get him off the ballot for this man, roy moore, an accused sexual offender of minors, to come to the senate and for mitch mcconnell to have to unseat him. so i think they're extremely nervous right now. the best thing that would happen right now for the republican party would be if the state party would get on board with trying to push roy moore out. right now they're circling the

wagons and they seem to be kind of bolstering around him, whereas here in congress, you have members of congress and mitch mcconnell very, very nervous because what roy moore has successfully done, and his wife who, as you see, in a way de facto taken over as being his spokesperson there, has convinced people that this is all just one big plot by the swamp and by mitch mcconnell to do the same thing that they tried to do to donald trump and that this is the establishment trying to come down here into alabama and tell us what to do. >> so you mentioned donald trump, just like they did to donald trump. how exactly do republicans who endorse donald trump after the "access hollywood" tape and in the later stages of the 2016 campaign say, oh, we can't seat a guy that has allegations, numerous allegations against him? because then they open

themselves up to, oh, my gosh, months and months and months of sort of a laser focus on donald trump. >> i think that's already happened. that has already happened. it was going to happen most likely, but the president himself then has completely thrown a wrench into their strategy. if you saw on the sunday shows was to put out people like mark short and nick mulvaney, to not pour cold water on this, but to stop just short of telling him, roy moore, to get out of the race. but trump now going after franken has said hey, he has drawn a bright contrast here to the way that the white house is handling the situation about roy moore which, yeah, that's not photographic evidence. but here you have a former police officer saying on the record that it was well known that roy moore like d young girls. and yet here the president himself is going after al franken and not saying a word

about roy moore. and not, in any way, saying he should step aside. >> meika, how does mitch mcconnell say if roy moore gets elected -- by the way, if we had the trump factor during the 2016 where people wouldn't tell pollsters if they're going to vote for donald trump or not, think about alabama, who is going to tell a pollster they're going to vote for roy moore with all these allegations out there. i don't, right now, believe any polls. moore will probably lose but who knows? the polls will be more unreliable in this race than any other. if you're mitch mcconnell, mika, how do you say we are not going to seat roy moore because he has these allegations against him, but we're all -- we've all endorsed donald trump and we're all buying donald trump when he had all those allegations against him? >> and stuff on tape that people

have heard that is, at the very least, incredibly inappropriate and horrifically insulting to women. this is the problem of trump, that applicants have walked the plank to the point that they haven't said the right thing in real time and now they're stuck in a really bad situation. add to that nearly three weeks until the alabama special election, the editorial board that oversees three of the state's newspapers has endorsed his democratic opponent in yesterday's "birmingham news" was stark, placed above the masthead. a vote for roy moore sends the worst kind of message to alabamians struggling with abuse. if you ever do tell your story, alabama won't believe you. or, worse, we'll believe you but we just won't care. to be clear, it's not only his record on women and children

that disqualifies moore. if we vote for roy moore, alabama will also show that we don't care if you're gay, muslim or catholic, if you're an atheist or immigrant. we'll show each other that we only care about roy moore's definition of alabama. and that there's not ream for the rest of us. all that he stands for. there is only one candidate left in this race who has proven worthy of the task of representing alabama. and he is dug jones. >> mike barnicle, let's take a look. alex, put the "birmingham news" shot back up. >> do what washington can't. be a human being. >> obviously the editors of "the birmingham news" a paper i grew up certainly reading from the time i went off to college.

i mean, you can tell, they understand this is a moment in alabama history in 2017. >> it sure is. >> pretty extraordinary placement of an editorial. >> it sure is. there was a moment in time when, in the united states of america and in alabama, front page newspaper editorials would really mean something. i don't know that that's any longer the case. not just in alabama but throughout the country. i was talking to two people over the weekend, both long-time alabama residents. both have a very good view of alabama, its culture and its politics. their strong feeling is that time is an ally for roy moore, that he still got 2 1/2 weeks left before an election. >> i agree. >> and they think he might win. >> i agree. i agree of the pace of all these stories coming out. >> did you talk to him? >> no. that's what i'm hearing people

saying, too, that the pace of all these stories coming out at some point makes voters just throw their arms up in the air. >> correct. >> which would be extraordinarily unfortunate. let me ask you -- it's interesting. this guy is somebody that i doubt you, i know i, wouldn't have voted him before any of these allegations came out in the first place. i just wonder why traditional conservatives would stand by a man who is anything but conservative. yes, he's conservative on the ten commandments and he sure does talk an awful lot about jesus. but politically, he is not traditionally a small government conservative. >> no. >> just like donald trump. >> i completely agree it's very much about a stance and a position and his being

aggressive on cultural issues. but well before these allegations came out -- and people who support moore hide behind the notion that these run supported. nothing is confirmed, at least not in a court. his contempt for the constitution and role as an officer of the constitution, constitutional officer, is well established. >> right. >> he portrays himself, wraps himself in religious notions, portrays himself as a cultural fighter but he embodies the kind of judicial activism that conservatives supposedly resent if he wins and is seated it turns out they just resent liberal judicial activism. >> judicial activism that conservatives have always loathed where a judge doesn't actually follow the law. the judge follows what he or she thinks sounds right to them. that's what conservatives have always attacked liberal justices for. roy moore has done the same thing, though, on the far right, saying, i don't care what other courts say.

i don't care what the federal government has said. i'm going to do what i want to do. and he was kicked off the bench twice fwl and got removed from the bench twice for his trouble. the interesting thing is that voters of alabama re-elected him twice. he got through the primary for the senate seat, got through the run-off for this senate seat. even before all the stuff with the women came out it must be a very strange state, joe, that you went to college in. they really seem to like a guy who is so far off the page compared to any kind of mainstream thinking. >> let's wait and see what the people of alabama -- >> the women thing will hopefully change it. >> what we found, mike, in virginia, and i believe what we'll find in alabama, whether you're talking about women in mountainbrook, vastavia, homewood, birmingham area, montgomery, parts of mobile, huntsville. i think you're going to find a lot of women that, just like in

northern virginia, that probably voted republican their entire life, even if it's raining, they're going to stand in line and they're going to do what they can to vote against roy moore. i think women will make the difference in alabama just like they made the difference in virginia. >> you would hope so. one of the things -- steve reminded me of this in our conversations over the weekend. because of who we are, where we live and the culture we're all part of in one way or another, you could say democrats but you could also be more general about it and say people from the northeast or people from the coast, coastal elites, we fail to recognize the impact that religion has on the daily culture in alabama. and the absence of condemnation from so many churches, small churches, pastors throughout alabama has played an important role in keeping his candidacy afloat. >> we saw with trump. >> i actually don't think it's

religion as much as it is tribalism. donald trump got elected, noah, not because people liked donald trump but because they disliked hillary clinton more. this has been the story for american politics for 30 years. you don't vote for somebody. you vote against somebody. everybody knew what donald trump's flaws were. but more wanted to vote against hillary clinton in the states that mattered in the end than wanted to vote for her. here with roy moore, i don't think a lot of people are going to be voting for roy moore, but they sure don't want nancy pelosi and -- fill in the blanks -- chuck schumer and all the -- they don't want all of these northeast liberals and west coast liberals having another ally in doug jones. that's the line you always use. doug jones, if you vote for doug jones, his first vote is going to be for chuck schumer as majority leader and everybody says no, no. that's not just in alabama, by

the way. that's across the country. it's tribalism that leads us to this point. >> doug jones is probably a little too liberal for his state and his position on right to life issues is legitimately troubling for anybody concerned about that issue. we do need to relearn the lesson of 2016. on the right pundits do believe that donald trump won and, therefore, all the allegations, against him, all the concerns about him in the campaign are neutralized and invalid. he won perhaps despite rather than because of quite a bit of his flaws. roy moore came in fourth place in 2010 when he ran for governor in a republican primary. something has changed in the republican party. it's something that i don't think we have put a lot of stake and value in the nature of the way in which we care a little bit less about governance and a little bit more about cultural signifying and posture gl he. >> mika, a reporter told me in a

fund-raiser this morning john mccain and george h.w. bush were brought up and the entire audience of republicans booed. this is not -- forget about the republican partying of my youth. this is not the republican party of my 50th year. >> no. well, that's why you moved to independent. but i'm still confused as to what exactly is happening in all of this. i mean, how does religion, heidi, play a role in republican politics at this point? >> it certainly is part of the tribalism, right? because there is a litmus test for most religious voters which is on the issue of abortion. for those voters, they can be single issue voters. but in this case, i think barnicle really makes a very important observation here about all of these religious leaders standing by roy moore or essentially just not saying anything. i think for the victims, who are

ongoing, there have to be current victims looking at this situation and seeing how this loud -- the religious leaders are saying nothing. it must be a really hard moment for a lot of these people in alabama who may be suffering sexual abuse. and so i think that is something that down the road also makes it harder for the religious community. now you're seeing members like tony perkins. over the weekend it was exposed that the head of the family research council knew about one of his members, who he was promoting, having fund-raisers for, who had abused a young man or fondled a young man and yet they looked the other way. so this is also a moment for the religious community to look inward and see what they want their own image to be going down the road and whether they can keep their coalition together when they stand by people like

roy moore and like this congressman. i'm sorry, his name slips my mind. it was a story over the weekend about tony perkins and family research council knowing about this abuse and yet standing by this candidate. >> one small point, joe. going back to your point about tribalism and the way in which we seem to be separating into multiple americas, hillary clinton got 15, 1-5, percent of the white vote in alabama last year and that was it. >> yeah. so much more to get to. president trump is trying to publicly pressure his own party with the republican tax proposal facing some serious challenges. >> it may go down. >> the president tweeted, in part, quote, they do not want to disappoint the american public. we'll break down where the legislation stands today. and jared kushner facing new scrutiny this morning about contacts with russia. we're learning new details about his purported failure to disclose an outreach to a putin

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a small group of gop senators are signaling opposition that could block their own party's massive tax overhaul. the trump administration is signaling that it may be willing to budge on its stand for a major provision in the republican tax plan, taking aim at obamacare. speaking yesterday, white house budget director mick mulvaney suggested while the administration wants to repeal the health law's individual mandate it is open to dropping the repeal from the senate bill to make sure a final bill gets to president trump's desk, which mulvaney says may take some bending of the rules. >> using reconciliation so that we only need 50 votes in the senate instead of 60. in order to do that, certain proposals can only have certain economic impact.

one of the ways to game the system is to make things expire. bush tax cuts in early 2000 did the same thing, supposedly expire after nine years. we tell folks if it's good policy, it will become permanent. if it's bad policy, it will become temporary. that's just the way that it is. this is done more to force the shoehorn the bill in because we think it's good policy. >> i don't think anybody doubts where the white house is on repealing and replacing obamacare. we absolutely want to do it. if we can repeal part of obamacare as part of a tax bill and have a tax bill that's still a good tax bill they're great. if it becomes an impediment to getting the best tax bill we can, we'll take it out. >> can you vote for the bill that passed the senate committee? >> i want to see changes in that bill. i think there will be changes. >> you can't vote for it as written? >> i haven't reached that conclusion yet because i think there are going to be further changes, but the biggest mistake was putting in a provision from

the affordable care act into the senate bill that's not in the house bill. and i hope that will be dropped or that bills that have been introduced by senators alexander and murray and bill nelson and myself will be adopted to mitigate the impact of those provisions. >> so, heidi, where do we stand right now? ron johnson has come out and said he will be against this bill. susan collins, we can't say anything definitively. she certainly sounds far more open to supporting this than she did the health care reform bill. where is lisa murk wochlt. ski, jeff flake, john mccain? what's the possibility that republicans actually pass this tax bill which, editorially, i will say, will blow a hole in the deficit, steal from future generations and not revive the economy enough to make it worth all the giveaways we're giving to the wealthiest of americans. there you go. how is that for the leading

question? where does that stand? >> you identified the main members we've yet to hear from. before that even came on to the scene you had big problems here under the surface with these members who actually care about the debt. >> heidi, i forgot bob corker, who told us before this even started being debated he would have a hard time supporting this tax reform bill because, again, what it would do to the national debt. >> right. because we're at a point, joe -- i talked with a democrat who originally had been courted by this white house and now said no way, basically, because we're at a point right now -- and i think this is also potentially how bob corker is feeling, how folks like jeff flake may be feeling. at what point does the debt itself crash the economy? at what point does the debt itself -- when you're talking about long-term projections here, if nothing is done and congress didn't change this becoming 100% of gdp itself crash the economy?

and i think you're going to have members like bob corker ask what exactly is your projection that you're pointing to that guarantees that once we pass this bill, despite all of its flaws of taking more money -- giving more money to the rich than the middle class, of blowing up our national debt does this actually promote the growth that you're promising? >> right. >> shockingly, if you read "the wall street journal" over the weekend, joe, don't have that information. they can't guarantee us this would create the growth. matter of fact, in "the wall street journal" there was a story about gary cohen asking ceos, how many of you are going to invest once we give you this great christmas present tax cut. and he was like, come on, everybody, raise your hands. and they weren't doing it. >> he didn't get the response he was expecting. >> didn't get the response he wanted. yeah. >> i think it's awesome. kids, by the way, if you're at home and just starting to follow politics, i can tell you it's been the truth over the last 30

years, probably the truth over the next 30 years. only time democrats care about the national debt is when republicans are trying to pass tax cuts. the only time republicans ever care about the national debt is when a democrat is in the white house. there you go. now you know about who -- is that not right? the only time you hear democrats complaining about the debt is when republicans want to pass tax cuts and republicans don't care about the debt when they're the ones in the white house jacking it up. >> unless they're retiring. >> yes. >> then -- >> oh, my gosh, they get vocal. >> some problems. this was all supposed to be sequential, right? we're out of sequence, aren't we? >> joe's take on the plan. now take us through the numbers, steve. >> i'll take you through the numbers and give you maybe a more -- i don't know if it's optimistic or pessimistic view. they may get this bill through the senate. and we can talk about that in a second. >> interesting. >> first let's start. three things you need to know

and i've alluded to all of them. one it helps the rich more than anybody else, two, it increases the debt and three it kicks people off of obamacare. let's talk about who are the winners and the losers. 25% of the benefit from this tax cut would go to the top 1%. another 25% would go to the next 4%. so, 50% of the benefit for individuals from this tax cut would go to the top 5% of the country. >> let's stop right there. the first point is, obviously, the way that the tax -- our tax system is set up right now, the wealthier pay a larger percent of taxes. if you're going to cut taxes aren't you most likely going to be helping the richer among us? >> you don't have to. the administration is running around calling this a middle class tax cut. they don't say it's a tax cut across the board.

they call this a middle class tax cut. by the way, these don't include the repeal of the estate tax if it gets through. >> great point there. not a middle class tax cut. my second question is this. i don't mind tax cuts for the wealthy as far as businesses, corporations if they're targeted in such a way that they're going to create so many new jobs that it does help the rest of the economy. y see any evidence in this tax cut that it's going to do that. we're only going to get a temporary bump so it's just not worth it. do i have that wrong? >> have you that right. a lot of economic models run by independent forecasters that show this growth that everybody talks about isn't going to happen and we'll end up with a whole bunch more of debt. >> so the growth won't be worth the debt and also it will make income inequality even worse? >> actually greater. look at the debt, joe, to your point, and at a point we agree about. our deficits are going up close

to $100 billion at the moment. we're headed for 91% debt to gdp in 2028. this would take it to 99%. debt equal to the size of our economy. first time we've been in this position since world war ii. and then the third point that's really critical to understand is what happens to people who are on health insurance. we stop the repeal of obamacare. we stop the gutting of obamacare, which would have cost 22, 23, 24 million people their coverage. but we're going to do it this way. we're going to kick out one of the legs of the obama stool, the mandate that each individual has to buy insurance. according to the cbo, independent score, 13 million americans are going to lose their health insurance over the next 10 years. and so we have effectively managed to do half of the gutting of obamacare that we stopped a few months ago through this tax bill. >> noah? >> one thing that frustrates me

a lot about this is i'm hearing about the individual rates when the meat of this thing is in the corporate tax cut. nobody is pitching that. the best pitches i hear are from "the wall street journal" editorial board, which make ace good case for that. reduced corporate rates, more incentive to repatriate capital. to predict growth is really difficult. and i think it's prudent not to. but is that not something to suggest we can find bipartisan support for that? >> number one, the corporate tax system is broken. we need to do something about it. everybody agrees on that. these tax bills would give -- >> the tax rates are too high for corporations? >> relative to our competitors, too many incentives to locate jobs overseas, too many ways to game the system and pay less tax than they're supposed to. it's just a mess. but 60 to 80% of the benefits of this bill, 80 from the house, 60 from the senate go to companies instead of individuals. it's tilted massively in favor

of corporations and i would reference back -- i think it was mike who said at this wall street journal conference the other day when people were asked, how many of you are going to increase less? five hands went up and everybody else sat there. >> why? >> because companies don't make investments based on things like this. they make investments based on where they can achieve a rate of return. right now that is -- in america but also elsewhere. >> clearly eliminating ols dm care in this proposal is to get a cash injection. >> it does two things. it get ace cash injection and for those who want to gut obamacare it helps you do that. >> that's never going to happen. people want to know why it was inserted. we just found out why it was inserted so republican senators can say i'll support it now that i've saved obamacare? these geniuses have it gutted right now. do they have any idea, have they projected the cost of eliminating health care for 13 million people?

>> actually, honestly, mike, it works the other way. they actually save money because people don't have to pay the penalties. part of why it was put in here was as a budget gimmick to create revenue. let's go back to the politics. susan collins has not said she's going to vote against this. she has not said even if this thing stays in she's going to vote against it. john mccain had some kind of positive mutterings this past weekend. corker, who has been saying what you said he said for the long time still hasn't said he's against this bill. ron johnson they'll deal with easily by fixing this little problem with the pass throughs and i suspect they'll get his vote before this is over. i would not count this bill out. i think it has a better than 50% chance of passing. >> i'm with you. one things that always unified republicans on the house floor when i was there, and still does, tax cut. >> if they don't get this done, president trump has accomplished nothing legislativlegislatively >> what does this do in your thinking process as to your

former republican party? you see in the chart 99% in -- what year is it? >> 2028. >> again, the problem with republicans, we are forever stuck in 1980. it's a 1980 campaign, reagan against carter. tax cuts, 75, 80%? it made a lot of sense then to go out and, you know, reduce the top rate from 75% to 40% or 35%. it's just so much harder now. i'll say it again. we've got $20 trillion debt, entitlement crisis that's going to bankrupt future generations, social security, medicare, medicaid. the reckoning is coming. i know there are a lot of liberal economists and a lot of republican politicians that don't want to admit it, but the

reckon something coming. it's not going to provide the bump to the economy that's going to make it worth it. sometimes you -- world war ii. but sometimes you have to make those choices, yes, we will go more in debt if it means middle class americans are going to, you know, get better-paying jobs. there's just no evidence this is going to bring trillions of tlars into the u.s. economy. >> it's the wrong tax cut at the wrong time. don't forget one last point. this is payback to the blue states. this is eliminating state and local tax deductions for all those states that didn't vote for donald trump. >> all right. coming up -- >> which, by the way, mika, if you're in california and if you're a republican and you voted for this bill, my suggestion to you in 2018 is duck because you have just probably done the worst possible thing you could do to small business owners in your state.

go ahead. i say that as somebody who -- >> they really want this bill? i don't get it. >> if you're in california, if you're a small business owner in california and people, republicans voted for this bill, they basically voted for your 55% tax rate to go up to about 60%. it will have devastating impact in republican districts, in california, in new york, in illinois, across the board. devastating. all right. coming up, heidi mentioned jeff flake's potential opposition to the tax plan, something president trump is well aware of. the president is hammering the arizona republican, especially after the senator was caught on microphone, again, blasting the commander in chief. plus the growing feud between president trump and the father of one of the ucla players detained in china on shoplifting charges. >> such trolling of the media.

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donald trump, the president went after the father of one of the ucla players detained last week in china on shoplifting charges seemingly because the father didn't give trump the credit the president feels he deserves for the boys' release. when asked about trump's involvement last friday by espn, lavar ball, the father of liangelo ball responded who? what was he over there for? don't tell me nothing. everybody wants to make it seem like he helped me out. president trump responded sunday, quote, now that the three basketball players are out of china and saved from years in jail, lava ball, the father of liangelo, is unaccepting of what i did for his son and that shoplifting is no big deal. i should have left them in jail! this is our president of the united states of america. trump followed that up hours later tweeting shoplifting is a very big deal in china, as it

should be. five to ten years in jail but not to father lavar. should have gotten his son out during my next trip to china. instead china told them why they were being released. very ungrateful. >> two things. one, it is so important for journalists, reporters, editors to understand that so often donald trump says outrageous things to shock. >> and distract. >> to distract from all the russia stuff going on, from the roy moore race. >> there is that. >> to numb people. it's a great propaganda tool, historians say. that's part one of it. the second part of it is, of course, there's racist overtures here where the black man was not appreciative of what the white man did for him. >> and i actually think the racism is a real kind of thread

throughout this presidency and the campaign. i think we can actually connect the dots there. >> would you like me to do one of my -- >> yeah, could you? president and racism. let's do a stop in charlottesville. oh, and the campaign, muslim ban. >> problem is that a lot of times you have latent racism. >> mexican judge. >> it's hard to connect all the dots. people will say something which leads people -- trump administration, can we get a diagram here? >> dot to dot. >> nice dig. we did this last week. yes. it's actually a bit more direct. >> it's like steve's chart. >> by the way it took me weeks to put this together and i'm very proud of it. >> when the president tries to use racism to distract from bigger things that's when we should always make it a moment to talk about russia. since jared is in the news this morning and it's big news, we should not be distracted by

blatant racism in a tweet that is just pathetic. joining us now, senior writer at politico and author of "the play book," jake sherman. >> i want to talk about this lavar ball thing for a second. >> no. >> hold on. >> i don't want to talk about it. >> take the bait. >> this is a guy who is very -- he's a promoter, right? >> yeah. >> selling his son's shoes for like $1,000. his son who is in the nba. so, i mean, trump got trapped here. he took the bait of a guy who is looking for these fights, just like trump is, in many ways. usa today said take a bow to lavar ball for getting donald trump to engage here. >> eww. >> that's the big thing. >> i'm just bored. >> jake, i apologize for saying that you took the bait there. that was actually a brilliant move on his part and the president played right into it. you can't overstate this enough. the people that have prospered the most while donald trump's

ratings have collapsed to record l lows, are his enemyies. "new york times" doing better than ever. the washington post doing better than ever. networks. cnn is doing great on revenue. we're doing great. all the people that he has attacked seem to actually be doing quite well. donald trump has been great for the media. >> you know what's interesting? anna palmer, my co-author of "playbook" and i were at a an event talking to a group in town. inbound flights -- they were begging for me to say this on tv. it fits into this context. in-bound flights in new york are down for the first time since right after 9/11. i might have that statistic wrong. travel folks think there's some correlation to the toxic environment that foreign travelers are not coming back to the u.s. to visit and to be

tourists. that's a pretty amazing statistic that the world's biggest -- one of the country's biggest cities is seeing fewer and fewer international tourists. >> i still think no matter whether the president looks stupid in this argument or not, because often he just lurches so wildly that he ends up looking incredibly stupid, i don't think that he cares, as long as it distracts from russia. >> again, that's the point. for donald trump, it's more important, noah, not that we're distracted from -- not that his racist tweet reaches the intended ears. it's more important that we're talking about his tweet. that we're talking about him. that we're not talking about russia. that we're not talking about the news that broke over the weekend, that we're not talking about roy moore. >> i would say that's more the key to this. we run the risk of imputing

motives that the president probably doesn't have. he seems like a very impulsive guy. it seems like a really impulsive tweet. it has done him no favors. i just don't see how he benefits from it. it might just be more impulse. which, by the way, is no defense. it certainly is not an admirable trait. >> he also does it, mike, somebody -- very well-known figure in the media who has known donald trump for quite some time said donald trump also has laughed with him, saying that he loves to send out an outrageous tweet. >> sure. >> and then just sits there and looks at his phone and looks at everybody's hair that's on fire. that so much of this also is just to get a reaction. >> sure. in this case, jake is absolutely right. both people here, lavar ball and

the president of the united states, they're attention seekers. lavar ball has his ballers, i believe it is, the line of sneakers he's selling with his son. we know what the president does. in this particular case, though, i think there's one other little added twist. donald trump has a genius to him that goes, i think, largely unremarked because of who he is most of the time. his genius is his ability to sense and tap into resentment. and that's what most of his tweets, like this one, do. you might call it racism. it certainly is racist at a certain level. but the resentment that's out there toward the established order. >> and also what about the tweets on the nfl and kneeling? he has tapped into enough resentment that's actually impacted the nfl this year.

>> supporters, one thing they want him to do is stop tweeting. >> they say that but -- >> they say that. >> but this is -- >> that's this morning. >> yeah, that's this morning. and, again, it does feed into the resentment. jake, we'll go back to you outside of breaking news that donald trump tweets, what is happening on the hill this week and do you think steve has a point that republicans may be closer to passing tax reform than we think? >> i do think so. there's a lot of motivation i think there are two big dynamics here. number one, republicans say the tax bill is the only way to keep the majority in 2018. we're less than a year away from the mid term elections. on the other hand as steve pointed out and you pointed out earlier, tax bill polls very, very low. you have this public face that this is the only way for them to keep their majority and the

private posture i'm hearing -- because i'm writing a book about congress and the trump era. behind the scenes they think it's not a political winner and actually carries huge risks. a lot of provisions that people don't like. let's take the rosiest view of this, that it will be a boom for the company and people will like it. that won't happen in 2018. in a marginal sense but a lot of benefits republicans hope will happen could happen when democrats control the house if they win in 2018. i want to make one other point on trump when it comes to 2018. i think you're going to see in this upcoming election very low participation from donald trump. i mean, i don't think there's a district in america really that's going to be up for grabs where donald trump would be a plus, a net positive for the candidate. sure, there are deep red districts across the country where he could go in. but i would not be surprised to see him show up nowhere in competitive seats in 2018, which

is fascinating. obviously, in virginia, it's the first time since richard nixon that the sitting president did not take part in the gubernatorial election.shermen, much. still ahead, amid concerns about the president's unchecked nuclear authority, response for carrying out any need to strike saying some people think we're stupid. "morning joe" is coming right back.

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charles manson, the infamous cult leader and master mind behind a string of murders in 1969 has died. the 83-year-old spent decades behind bars after ordering his followers to kill seven people over two nights. among those killed sharon tate,

the pregnant wife of roman plan ski. according to california's department of corrections manson died of natural causes. >> mike barnicle, one the news of this broke, it was another shock to america's collective consciousness. it was so horrifying and somehow seemed to fit in with a belief among a lot of middle class americans that this world, this country, this culture, was just spinning out of control in the late 60s. >> there's no doubt about that. the interesting thing is on his de death in prison, it's almost like an earlier innocent age when it happened. if it happened today, it would be a news brief other than the fame of the individuals killed. we've gone through new town and school shootings, mass slaughters, and people just turn the page. they get upset for a while, and

then you turn the page. >> that really e pittiz miezed epitomized an era. coming up. what did jarod kushner know about the conversations with wikileaks and a top putin ally with alleged links to organized crime? we're going to talk about that. plus "the washington post" kacal laning joins us. "morning joe" is coming right back. (♪) it all starts with a wish. the lincoln wish list event is here. sign and drive off in a new lincoln with zero down and a complementary first months payment.

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i listened to his radio interview, and i did not find him to be credible. i hope that the good voters of alabama decide not to send him to the united states senate. >> what i said in the past, i want to be very clear. the allegations are stronger than the denial, and roy moore should find something else to do. that's my way of suggesting he should not be in the race. i think there is a strong possibility with a new republican candidate we could win the election. it's in the best interest of the country and the state of alabama for roy moore to find something else to do. >> i think the president talked about roy moore. i think he said he thinks the voters of alabama should decide. i think that's probably the most common sense way to look at it. he doesn't know who to believe. i think a lot of folks don't.

>> nine women have come out. many of them since the president came back from asia. he's said not a word. >> the allegations are serious and should be taken seriously. these are up to the voters in the state. >> it's strange. thank god they have an advocate in the white house woman in the white house who will speak out strongly against these things, right? maybe not. some say he needs to step aside. others are saying the voters need to decide it. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it's monday. with us, mike barnicle, noah rothman, steve rattner, and heidi przybyla, and michael steele, and political reporter for the washington post and moderator of "washington week" robert costa.

>> the heidi, the republicans are talking about alternatives. there aren't a lot of other good alternatives. noah said you can get people to do a write in candidacy. mo brooks doesn't want to do that. are there any others who might do a write in? >> right now there was talk about jeff sessions as a stealth maneuver to push him out of his position. a no. what would that do? it would split the ticket. then it makes it easier for dug jon doug jones. joe is right. i saw a quote over the weekend. we think maybe the support that he has that roy moore has here is understated because people just like with donald trump are unlikely to admit, maybe, in this environment to their votes, and that what we may be faced

with here is an accused sexual predator coming to congress and mitch mcconnell being faced with having to unseat him. that's why you have already some republicans saying that as a show of force to roy moore in these last moments to try and force him to step aside for mitch mcconnell to maybe even begin to do a whip count to show this is what will happen if you continue down this road. but at this point the party is too worried about what's going on down there with the pushback by roy moore and his supporters who successfully cast this as a big establishment takeover of local alabama politics to try and force roy moore out with all of these false accusations and boy, oh boy, we don't have any photographic evidence despite the clamor from all these women. more and more coming forward

every day and every week, and also the evidence from folks like the former police officers who say it was a known fact that roy moore liked little girls. >> let me ask one thing. michael, we're looking right now, obviously, at what's right in front of us. that is roy moore. the allegations. is he going to win? how are the republicans going to respond in let's play this out. if roy moore wins, and then mitch mcconnell refuses along with the republicans to unseat him, you have just given steve bannon, i'm not saying that's not what they should do. i'm just saying let's play this out and put it in proper context of 30,000 feet. at 30,000 feet, you have just played into steve bannon's lands and played into the hands of people who said the establishment gop party now is decid deciding who can be and can't be

seat se seated. this is so bad for the republican party on some fronts. i wonder if mitch mcconnell and other republican leaders are thinking the best thing that could happen is a democrat could win the alabama race. >> this is the worst lose/lose n scenario for them. whether moore wins or loses, it's a loss for the gop across the board. it's a loss if he wins. because now we have brought to our table an alleged pedophile and someone in which nine women before he got to the senate staked a claim against his candidacy in this person. it's a loss for the party, certainly, if he loses because then that base plays into the narrative that you just put out there that the elite in washington have taken down our candidate. that has ramifications around the country for some close races next year. and the party right now does not want to be in either of those

scenarios, but here we are. we are here because we're left standing on the one thing we've claimed to be the difference between us and the opponents. that's the principles and ideals we value. when you have pastors, pastors coming out and saying there must be something wrong with these women, that this is -- that roy moore is an honorable man, when you're looking at the face of this, that gives you a very clear indication of where this party has sunk to, how low it is right now, and that there is no bottom to this. because this does not get better for the govp. it only gets worse. the editorial board that oversees three of alabama's newspapers endorsed the democratic opponent. it was placed at the top. they write this, the editorial board. a vote for roy moore sends the worst kind of message to alabama

people struggling with abuse. if you ever do tell your story, alabama won't believe you. or worse, we'll believe you bewe won't care. it's not only his record on women and children. if we vote for roy moore, alabama will also show that we don't care about you if you're gay or muslim or catholic. if you're an ate yheist or an immigrant. we'll show each other we only care about roy moore's alabama and there's not room for the rest of us. alabama people must show themselves to be people of principle. reject roy moore and all he stands for. this is only one candidate left in this place which is proven worthy of the task of representing alabama. he is doug jones. >> wow. >> remarkable. screaming headline at the top of the birmingham news.

bob costa, where does that leave the republican party right now? where are -- what's the latest you've heard on mitch mcconnell's strategy? we hear them all say this is bad. we're shocked and stunned and deeply saddened. is there really a possibility that if the voters of alabama elect this guy that republicans in congress will do something that they haven't done in 130 years, and not seat somebody elected by the state? >> joe, based on conversations i've had with senate republican aides over the weekend, i'm doubtful that if moore was elected that he would be expelled. remember, the last time this was discussed was in the mid 90s with bob packwood. he was threatened with expulsion and chose to resign. because of primaries coming up next year and republican's

anxiety about rousing the base, there's a fear about moving forward with expulsion with roy moore, that they would not be able to get the necessary two-thirds of the senate to make that happen. and meanwhile in alabama, the republican party led by the governor, a republican woman, continues to stand by roy moore in effect paralyzing the effort for a write-in. >> and bob just confirmed what you said an hour ago, which is look at what's happened over the past year. actually look what's happened since donald trump won the nomination. republicans in the senate and house have taken the path of least resistance. if they haven't stood up over the past 11 months, why do we believe they'll do something i don't believe they've done since the mid 1800s? >> we shouldn't. it's highly unlikely. as robert said, they are very afraid of their base, and their base is very much interested in sending a signal to washington

that they don't need them. this is sort of a primal scream of anxiety about the nature of the country and the republican party generally. and because the republican party is leaderless, the top of the ticket, the president of the united states is more interested in fighting with nfl players than managing the health of his party. >> and fathers. >> and members of the nba, and whatever he comes to in the moment, it's up to somebody like mitch mcconnell to say, roy moore will never be a u.s. senator. it doesn't matter what happens in alabama. you will not sit in this chamber. nobody is interested in saying that. and that would compel somebody i think -- >> right. and if they don't say it which i accept they probably won't, what a gift to the democrats. to be running with a sitting -- >> democrats need to get it right. >> part of the issue here might be that when you said this is a gift to the democrats.

but we're talking about the country more than we're talking about a political party. and one political party within our republic is slowly before our eyes just disappearing from what it once was. if you go out and ask the average american, what's your view on a 31-year-old district attorney making arrangements to meet a 14-year-old girl for a date. he's going to pick her up two blocks from her home, you think that's okay? what's the answer going to be? but not in the united states senate, clearly. >> the republican voters have demonstrated a capacity to rationalize a way so much horrible news as a result of constructs they create in their minds. we had michael anton's which demonstrates this country is heading for a collision. no matter what we do. we might as well do something dramatic and defiant in the

process. that anihilism forms the elements of the republican base that they can rationalize away somebody accused of what roy moore is accused of. what they do in office. it's not a healthy republican civic. that's for sure. >> at a tax reform event in arizona, jeff flake was heard on a hot mike saying this to the city's mayor. >> come the party of roy moore and donald trump. we already toast. >> yeah. i don't -- is that -- it seems pretty obvious. president trump responded on twitter. quote, senator jeff flake who is une flektable in a az was caught saying bad things about your favorite president. oh, my god. how many lies can you pack into a tweet. he'll be a no on tax cuts because his political career is toast. you know what's toast?

morals in america. honestly. and it starts from the top down. when you have a president with no morals who is a bully, who acts like a bigot and a racist and is a sexist and a sexual harasser. you really have problems when that starts at the top. you have a problem with your party, and it's a problem for our country. that's the most ridiculous tweet -- actually, it's not. there have been so many, heidi. >> well, this is taking potentially the tribalism we've seen in washington to its horrifying conclusion. if you see a child molester here coming to the u.s. senate and here's what i think will happen. when jeff flake says they're toast, he means there's going to be no way for some of these blue state republicans, particularly if this tax plan passes and they're watching what's going on in alabama, with no repercussions, that those blue state republicans will find it

impossible to follow the time-tested method of trying to separate yourself from your party of trying to run as your own person. that won't happen. because you're going to see a big illustration of what happened in virginia at the national level of so many of these women who joe often refers to as standing in the rain, which was true, to come out and vote, because you're seeing them, by the way, not just in blue states. i've done some reporting on this. you're seeing these women's groups. they're called women's huddles, organizing, especially in some of these swing states. they know where it matters. they are being calculated about this. they're not having listening sessions and pow wows. they're being strategic. it starts from the bottom with state houses and it goes all the way up to the coveragngress. it's going to be hard for members in blue states to survive there. >> and purple states.

micha michael steele, republicans made so many gains when you were there, and over the past eight years. it seems right now they are -- i've always said donald trump wasn't a conservative and he was a life-long democrat. it would have been impossible for a democrat to do the damage that donald trump has done to the republican party, because this is the new setup. you can't win a primary if you go against donald trump in most districts. you can't win a general election in any contested district with donald trump. now you just can't do it on your side. and in large part, heidi is right. mika is right. it's about women. mika and i have been tweeting out over the past couple of weeks, these numbers. look at roy moore and donald trump, and also look at the numbers of men, white men

selected to judicial appointments. we're over 90% for u.s. attorneys being white men. women are completely shut out and might as well say women and nonwhites need not apply. and that's the sort of thing that really -- that's making women who have been republicans their entire life say this isn't my party. that's not my president, and i will not support anybody that does not speak out -- i don't know how republicans win in 2018 when donald trump keeps playing this steve bannon 33% game. >> yeah. that's part of the irony here in many respects. the party has at least on paper through the autopsy and other wasted moments said and profes professed it wanted these votes. women are the ones in most households around the country

that sort of determine how the vote will go in that household, if you will, and losing sight of that going into next year, certainly on the heels of what we saw in virginia is stupid. i like to joke about we built the house of steel in 2010. this was supposed to be an opportunity for the party to show it was a governing party, it would move the agenda for the american people. joe, you put your finger on the core of the problem right now. it's not the destruction outside that can hit the house from outside. the big storms and all of that. it's what you do inside the house when you tear up your own floorboards and knock down your own walls and pull out your own electrical power, you become the destructor of your home. that's what we're seeing taking place inside the gop plank by plank in fa plank. starting with our planks of the convention talking about what we believe and what we value.

we began to deconstruct theed a ma -- administrative state within our own home. >> and who is the strong voice for women, advocate for women, represents a strong woman who really wants to push this white house in the right direction as it pertains to issues important to women? i can't think of one. >> the obvious answer is his daughter, ivanka trump, but it's debatable about her impact and her choices that is widely debated. the jeff flake question, i want to say one quick thing. if that quote, even though it was off mike a little bit or whatever, that tells you so much about the arizona senate race next year. a democratic congresswoman will make a run. think of flake as a suburban

voter. you could see the tide start to turn against republicans in arizona and with that conservative doctor running there, you could have someone like martha mcsally decide not to run for the senate in the coming months because arizona's party term, but flake and senate flake have turned away from the party. the democrats right now, they watched that quote and think maybe arizona could go blue. >> robert costa, michael steele, thank you both. coming up, senator kiersten jill brand said bill clinton should have resigned the presidency turn his scandal with monica lewinsky. she went even further last night on kasie/dc. we'll bring you that straight ahead. is made of.

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on friday's show we showed you what kirsten gillibrand state about president clinton. he should have resigned the presidency during the scandal with lewinsky. she was asked more about that last night by kasie hunt. >> my point is the tolerance we had 25 years ago, what was allowed 25 years ago, it will not be tolerated today, it is not allowed today, and we have to have the kind of oversight and accountability that society needs so we can protect people in the workplace. people can function without having an unsafe work environment, whether it's in the military -- >> you're seeing president clinton created an unsafe work environment? >> no. i'm saying the conversation today is important. the kinds of behavior tolerated a long time ago wouldn't be tolerated today, and we can't

allow it. all of us needs to recognize -- none of us are wabove this, and all of us have to be responsible about how we create a workplace in our own office. how we do our oversight in congress by providing better oversight over the military which is our job with title ix on college campuses. we're all responsible, and we have to understand time as changed and we have to hold people, and elected people should be held to the highest standard. and that's why i focussed all my efforts and trying to change the rules of the game. they're not fair, and they're not working. >> you're saying if bill clinton were president today and those i incidents were unfolding. >> it would be a very different conversation. we should have a different conversation about president trump. >> so interesting on so many levels, heidi. trying to think of where to begin. first, i think the hold that the clintons have on democrats is

over. i mentioned that on friday. i think people are feeling like they finally can speak their minds about it all. but they didn't for a long time. and she said something interesting. she said behaviors that were tolerated years ago ten, 20 years ago, were allowed 20 years ago. they're not being tolerated today. what do we do with accusers who are accused? who are being accused of things ten, 20 years ago? because bill clinton, as far as i know, is still making money. >> of course. that's the great irony here is that you have -- >> was it tolerated? >> asking the question of whether we would be having this conversation had hillary clinton won, because people like kirsten gillibrand may have been more cowed into drawing the comparisons and saying hey, if this had happened in the current atmosphere, in the current day, it would not be acceptable, and

so we would be having the conversation in the sense that donald trump was elected, and we all know his history, but in terms of people actually speaking out in the democratic party and saying, hey, if we're going to have this conversation, we need to look at our own house too, and we need to look at the things that were tolerated 20 years ago that today, if this had happened, we would need to be out front and calling it out. that's, i think, what she's doing. it's particularly notable, mika, because the clintons have been such strong supporters of her. but i think she is also drawing that distinction that this is a cultural shift, and that we know about a lot of things that happened, for example, in previous presidencies with mistresses and kind of sexual things that in the current environment wouldn't be accepted. it's a sign of changing times and the changing culture and what society finds acceptable.

>> yeah. yeah. mike barnicle? >> it would appear to an observer that the comments about former bill clinton are largely political. we've also unfortunately slowly slid culturally into a moment when forgiveness is now married to ideology. that if you're a conservative and you do certain things, and if i'm a liberal, shame on you, get out. or gut her out. if you're a conservative, and bill clinton, or al franken, get him out, or get her out. >> right. so a couple of things. i think there are things that were accepted ten or 20 years ago. there are situations i have been in that i accepted ten or 20 years ago. it was part of the norm. it's why we're having the conversation. that's why i'm confused when you have accusers right now talking about things ten or 20 years ago

that are holding some people to a very different standard than people like bill clinton, and did they vote for hillary clinton? i disagree with you, mike barnicle. i don't think this is political on senator gillibrand's part. i think she's looking at the entire picture. one of the reasons why we, i mean democrats, lost is because bill clinton's behavior was accepted. it was pushed under a rug, and even women defended him, and women who accused him, he continues to flourish today, and his wife ran for president even though these women who accused him were attacked in the media, were maligned or settled. that's a different standard we're holding people to today. this is why we have trump. it's all connected.

and i applaud kirsten gillibrand for finally saying what is true. we are in this situation because we have been hypocritical on both sides of the aisle. whether you're a democrat or a republican, sexually harassing someone who is 22 years old when you're in power is just wrong, and you should go. >> you have to -- >> in realtime. >> there is a political element to this. gillibrand appeared on bill clinton on numerous occasions. the notion that the abuse of somebody in your charge, a young intern in your office, the notion that this was accepted, the attacking -- >> disgusting. >> the attacking the characters of the accusers, the notion that this was accepted behavior is rambling nonsense. and she should be attacked for allowing this to happen. >> you don't think it was accepted behavior? >> no. it was rationalized. >> my experience in the media as a woman, i will tell you there

was behavior that was tenned. i didn't know. >> people were attacked were having rigid moral standards that were behind the times that were unduly moralizing at the time. and they were right. and they should be vindicated for it. and people who -- >> well, i was with them every step of the way, and i said this long before hillary clinton even ran. for the people who are writing saying this is convenient to say now, i've had a problem with it ever since it happened. steve rattner, you wanted to say something? >> i think we're going to kristen welker. >> okay. hillary clinton is speaking out about the allegations levelled at donald trump during the 2016 campaign. joining us now, kristen welker. what can you tell us? >> well, the whole discussion that you guys are having in the studio, i think has dredged up and revived some of the back and forth that we saw during the 2016 campaign. hillary clinton defending her husband, bill clinton, saying,

look, this was litigated and sort of used the moment and used this moment in which we're looking at roy moore to criticize the current commander in chief. take a listen to what she said and i'll tell you what president trump did on the other side. >> we have a man who is accused of sexual assault sitting in the oval office, don't we? and the very credible accusations against him have not been taken seriously. >> you just said that you have a sexual assaulter in the white house. how could you say that about president trump? >> well, based on the very credible statements that have come forward from i think now a dozen women, and really based on his own words. you know, the hollywood access tape was not made up. he was describing sexual assault. >> mika, we asked sarah huckabee sanders about the allegations against president trump during the briefings last week. there have been measure a dozen

allegations. those were aired during the campaign. she continued to insist and reiterate what candidate trump said as a candidate which is that the allegations are not true. president trump lashed out, by the way, at hillary clinton over the weekend saying this crooked hillary clinton is the worst and biggest loser of all time. she just can't stop, which is so good for the republican party. hillary, get on with your life and give it another try in three years. baiting her to reenter the race. this is an issue i don't think is going to go away, and will be a centerpiece again. >> my oh my good, it was not to trump's tweet. you guys, i'm sorry, but i'm not sorry, actually. hillary clinton needs to stop. she needs to stop talking about this topic. unless bill clinton wants to come forward and apologize for being a sexual ha razzer, for settling with woman for -- he needs to apologize.

he needs to apologize as quickly as al franken did. as much as mark halperin did, and as much as he wants to. the men apologizing, we need to deal with them. if you're not going to apologize and it's clear you've done something wrong, please, you the politician, and your wife the politician need to not talk about these issues. just don't. okay? unless you want to come to the table with some honesty, because this is why we're here. this is why we're here with donald j. trump, the guy who ran pageants and had enough on the record to know that he doesn't have a great record with women, who is destroying every step we've made in the past ten years for women, setting us back. this is why he's here, because of hypocrisy. sources say jared kushner denied under oath knowing anything about wikileaks attempt to

contact the campaign. does his e-mail inbox suggest something else. plus we're joined with new reporting on the russia investigation. we're back in a moment. life happens.

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now to the new developments in the russia investigation involving jared kushner. it concerns an overture for some type of back channel communication that lawmakers say kushner failed to disclose. again, three sources tell nbc news an e-mail chain described a former lawmakerba form banking official as wanting trump to attend on the sidelines in 2016. the mail suggests he wanted a high level meeting with a trump campaign officials and he may have had a message for trump from putin. sources say kushner rejected the request and according to his lawyer, advised the campaign to decline such meetings. >> in my communications with the senate judiciary committee, i said take these documents and

let's talk about whether it's relevant. they joined the gun to the media. any perception he's been anything but cooperative, but if you look at the contents of the e-mails, he's the hero. he's saying there shouldn't be contact with foreign entities. that's what they should pay attention to and not create a partisan game. >> however one person close to donald trump attended the may 2016 event, and did speak with the man. the future president's eldest son, don junior. the man said in an interview that he stayed clear of candidate trump to avoid controversy, dining with don junior in said. the lawyer said he played down the encounter writing, trump junior was attending an nra convention and having dinner when an acquaintance made an introduction.

they made small talk and went back to their meals. that's the extent of their contact. >> with us now, jeremy bash and carol leonnig. she's out with a report on how the aides are worried about the scope of the russia probe. the most interesting part, carol, is that donald trump actually is now siding with the more optimistic people inside the white house that this is going to be over pretty soon and it's not going to touch him. >> yes. the president really enjoys the message being telegraphed to him fairly regularly by the white house attorney who said this will be over by thanksgiving or christmas or by the end of the year. and what he really means there is this will be over for the white house and there won't be anybody here that is touched. the president and his allies

have said, look, the president did nothing wrong. he didn't have any communications that were inappropriate. he's not worried about himself. but inside the white house, there are people that are quite worried because they have a little more knowledge, perhaps, about the details of each of the contacts now repeated contacts, by russian officials, russian nationals, who were trying to talk to the campaign. >> any evidence out there that donald trump and the white house has nothing to worry about and it will be wrapped up neatly by the end of the christmas season by the time we take down our christmas tree, mueller will be wrapping things up and saying happy new year? nothing to see. let's move along? >> i doubt it. i think bob mueller is much closer to the beginning of his investigation. first, he has to try manafort and gates nature will probably take at least a year. we haven't even seen papadopoulos's sentencing.

that's maybe several weeks or months away. and then the flynn investigation is obviously significantly underway. there was reporting over the weekend that bob mueller sent a range of document requests to the department of justice to look at what jeff sessions and others did with regards to the firing of jim comey. bob mueller will be talking to rob goldstone who set up the june 2016 meeting in trump tower. there are a number of significant issues for bob mueller to look at. i think anybody who thinks we're closer to the end is just engaged in wishful thinking. >> carol, why does donald trump's attorney keep telling him this is almost over? just sit tight a few more weeks? >> because that's what the president wants to hear. >> that's the lawyer you want. you want that for a lawyer or ha doctor. doctor, how am i? great. >> keep in mind, the president says it's the waste of time.

it distracts the country from his agenda. he also, let's be leclear, he feels this drains the legislate my si of his presidency. while he doesn't feel he's done anything wrong, there's a lot of evidence suggesting aides around him may have, and proxies around him may have, and i agree very much with jeremy. this is, to me, the beginning. we've talked to witnesses who know, they've only had the first of their interviews. they have more interviews on a range of subjects. it seems like a long road. not a long winter in 2017 but probably until a long winter of 2018. >> jeremy, obviously we've had some tremendous reporting on this topic over the past several months from carol and her colleagues the post and "the new york times" specifically, and yet the more you speak with people on the edge of this investigation, not the enemy of

the investigators, and the more you know about bob mueller's character and tenacity and his view of right and wrong, is it wrong to come away with the impression that we do not know an amazing amount of things that are happening with this investigation? we just don't know? >> i think you're right, mike. we didn't know the name george papadopoulos until his plea bargain was revealed publicly. we're learning week by week about new connections between the trump campaign and the russian federation. you rervferenced one about an organized crime figure and potentially senior officials to the train campaiump campaign, a connection with wikileaks. i don't think we know eve an fraction of what bob mueller knows. >> all right. jeremy bash and carol leonnig, thank you very much to you both.

and on tomorrow's show, we'll put all these pieces of the investigation together. we'll have the entire, complete time line of the connections and the contacts between russian officials and members of the trump campaign. that's tomorrow morning. that's incredible. >> can we wrap it up by thanksgiving? >> actually, when you see it laid out, it is mind blowing. we'll have that for you tomorrow. coming up, the military general responsible for overseeing the u.s. nuclear arsenal tries to ease concerns about president trump's unchecked nuclear power. we're back in just a moment.

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joining us now, nbc sports soccer analyst, roger bennett. >> where is pretty vacant. why aren't we playing pretty vacant.

>> he's the co-host of men in blazers airing live this afternoon on 5:30 eastern. >> football fans in america. >> you are just out of your mind. >> it really was surprising. everybody was talking about the power shift in north london. become the team that arsenal had collapsed after two decades. they didn't show up. >> it was rainy. cold. and he face timed me and it was so loud. like it was packed. it was crazy in there. >> i did not expect the emirates to have the atmosphere. they did such a huge corporate deal. >> we're going to show you the highlights. this is arsenal.

on this day. dennis opened the score. riding up a soccer salmon. >> at this point, roger. yes. an elbow in the side of my head by cheering fans right above there. >> you've had a long coming many viewers to this show many would say, joe. and arsenal. they won't be denied. tapped with tenacity. look at this. touch of a tender lover and finishing emphatically. >> what's wrong. this is all we have. we used to have an empire. now we have a queen. english muffins and premier league. you're one of 60,000 americans that go along. >> i actually had guys right behind me from -- they go down 11th street. they are huge arsenal fans.

americans. >> i will say on that day, arsenal the perfect english happiness. if you give your average englishman the choice between his success or your failure, he'll choose your failure. >> every time. >> arsenal got to enjoy both this weekend. >> i tell you what, ozo showed up. he doesn't usually show up. >> you love it. fourth straight, look at this. every night. his feet. one thing. i'm going to shoot this ball. >> nobody expected him to excel. he didn't do -- he didn't set the world on fire. this guy, now leads premier league in goals. >> go to the miami dolphins. equivalent.

manchester city destroy. look at this. the ninja. they are setting records. ginger ninja. used to tell ping-pong players before they go into battle, hit the ball as if it's the head of your communist enemy. top ten beginningers of all time. sgl does anybody catch a city this year. >> football club from behind. >> roger bennett. thank you. >> number ten. >> we'll be watching. >> men in blazers. that's where i want to go for my honeymoon. >> i have an idea for a honeymoon and that's not it. men in blazers. this afternoon. 5:30 eastern nbc sports. you're transfixing.

still ahead, wife of -- all right. coming up. the wife of embattled senate roy moore hits president trump with trump style rhetoric. that as pressure intensifies for moore to step aside. and advice for democrats on taking on donald trump. gym joins us straight ahead on morning joe. so, that goal you've been saving for,

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have you noticed you're not hearing too much about russia. to the president, i would say now is a good time to get some things done in congress. >> oh, so the president of the united states hampered by questions of collusion should thank an accused pedophile and u.s. senate candidate for changing the conversation for being the distraction. roy moore's wife thinks so and it's making republicans in washington very, very nervous this morning. good morning, everyone. it is monday, november 20th. welcome to morning joe. on morning joe we have veteran columnist and msnbc contributor mike barnicle. associate editor of meantary

magazine. former treasury official and morning joe economic analyst steve rattner. and in washington white house reporter for usa today good to have you all on board. not going away for republicans. the roy moore story. seems that donald trump is trying to have it both ways. this about this. the best seat the republicans would be since they can't get him off the blallot, for this man, accused sexual offender of minors to come to the senate and for mitch mcconnell to have to unseat him. the best thing to happen for the

republican party would be if the state party would get on board with trying to push roy moore out. right now they're circling the wagons and kind of bolstering around him where as here in congress, you have members of congress and mitch mcconnell very, very nervous because what roy moore has successfully done has and his wife who as you see in a way de facto kind of taken over as being his spokesperson there, has convinced people that this is all just one big plot by the swamp and by mitch mcconnell to do the same thing that they tried to do to donald trump. >> you mentioned donald trump, just like they did to donald trump. how exactly do republicans who endorse donald trump after the access hollywood tape and after all the allegations against donald trump and the later stages of 2016 campaign say we

can be the seat a guy with numerous allegations on him. they open up to months and months and months of laser focus on donald trump. >> i think that's already happened. that's already happened. what was going to happen most likely, but the president himself then has completely thrown a wrench in the strategy. here owe r you have a former police officer saying on the record it was well known that

roy moore liked young girls. yet, here the president himself is going after al franken and not saying a word about roy moore. and not in any way saying that he should step aside. >> so mika, how does mitch mcconnell say if roy moore gets elected and by the way, if we had the trump factor during the 2016 campaign.

thfl is is the problem of tp republicans have just walked the plank to the point they haven't said the right thing in realtime now they're stuck? a really bad situation. add to that nearly three weeks until the alabama special election. the editorial board that oversees three of the state's newspapers has endorsed his democratic opponent. the endorsement in yesterday's birmingham news was stark. placed above the head. the editorial board writes this. quote a vote for roy moore sends the worst kind of message to alabamians struggling with abuse. if you ever do tell your story, alabama won't believe you. or worse.

we will believe you, but we won't care. if we vote for roy moore, alabama will also show that we don't care if you're gay or muslim or catholic. if you're an atheist or immigrant. we'll show each other we only care about roy moore's definition of alabama and there's not room for the rest of us. alabama i can't answer must show themselves to be people of. republicans in congress have not done for months across the board. vote against roy moore and all he stands for. only one candidate left in this race proven worthy of the task of representing alabama and he is doug jones. >> mike barnicle. let's take a look. put the birmingham news shot if you can.

certainly reading from the time i went off to college. you can tell. it sure is. there was a moment in time when the united states of america and in alabama front page newspaper editorials would really mean something. i don't know that no longer the case not just in alabama, but throughout the country. both have very good view of alabama. culture and politics.

i agree i also agree the pace. that's exactly. >> and that's what i'm hearing people say too that the pace of all these stories that come out at some point makes voters just throw their arms out in the air. let me ask you, it's interesting. this guy is somebody that i doubt you, i know i would have voted for him before any of these allegations came out. i just wonder why traditional conservatives will standby a man who is anything, but conservative. yes, he's reflexively conservative on the ten commandments and he talks a lot about jesus, but he's not a small government conservative.

>> just like donald trump. >> i completely agree it's about a stance and position and feeling sort of being aggressive of cultural issues. the journalism. the constitution and the role as an officer on the constitution. is well established. he portrays himselves and wraps himself in religious notions and portrays as cultural. if he's seated if he wins and he's seated. turns the out he represents liberal activism. >> the conservatives have always loved where a judge doesn't follow the law. the judge follows what he or she thinks. sounds right to them. that's what conservatives have

always attacked liberal justices for. roy moore has done the same thing on the far right saying i don't care what the courts say. i don't care what the federal government has said. i'm going to do what i'm going to do and kicked off the bench twice for the trouble, but the interesting thing is the voters of alabama re-elected him twice. got through the primary for this senate seat. got through the runoff for the senate seat. and so even before all of the stuff with the women came out, it must be very strange state joe that you went to college in. they've really timed to like a guy who is so far off the page compared to any kind of mainstream thinking. >> let's wait and see.

you can find a lot of women just like in northern virginia that probably voted republican their entire life, but even if it's raining, they're going to stand in line and they're going to do what they can to vote against roy moore. i think women will make the difference in alabama just like they made the difference in northern virginia. >> you would hope so. one of the things steve reminded me of this in conversations over the weekend. because of who we are and where we live and the culture we're all a part of one way or the other. you can say democrats or say people from the northeast, coastal elites. we fail to recognize the impact that religion has on the daily culture in alabama. and the absence of condemnation from so many churches, small churches, pastors throughout

alabama. has played an important role in keeping his candidacy afloat to this point. i actually don't think it's religion as much as it is tribalism. donald trump got elected not because people liked donald trump, but because they disliked hillary clinton or this has been the story of american politics for 30 years. you don't vote for somebody, you vote against somebody. everybody knew what donald trump's flaws were. moore wanted to vote against hillary clinton in the states that matter in the end. then wanted the vote for her. here with roy moore, i don't think a lot of people are going to be voting for roy moore, but they sure don't want nancy pelosi and fill in the blanks and chuck schumer. they don't want all of these northeast liberals and west coast liberals having another ally in doug jones. that's the line you always use.

>> doug jones is probably to lib rap f liberal for this state. i think we need to relearn the less s lesson of 2016. therefore all the allegations against donald trump are nu neutrali neutralized. he won because of despite not because of flaws. by the way, roy moore came in fourth place in 2010 when he ran for governor in the republican primary. something has changed in the republican party. it's something that i don't think we put a lot of stake and value in the nature of the way in which we care a little bit

less about governano gofer gove answerancegovernance. >> the names john mccain and george bush were brought up and the entire party booed. this is not the republican party of my 50th year. >> i mean. that's why you move to independent, but i'm still confused as to what is happening in all of this. how does religion play a role in republican politics at this point? >> it is certainly part of the tribalism. there's a litmus test for most religious voters on the issue of abortion. for those voters, they can be serious injurile issue voters. in this case, i think barnicle is really makes a very important observation here about all of

these religious leaders standing by roy moore. essentially not just saying anything. i think for the victims who are ongoing, there's got to be current victims who are looking at the situation and seeing how this loud -- the religious leaders are saying nothing. it must be a really hard moment for a lot of these people in alabama who may be suffering sexual abuse. still ahead on morning joe, the future of tax reform on capitol hill. what it means for policy if it passes and for politics if it doesn't. you're watching morning joe. we'll be right back. ughh. wow. that's just not fair. does she have to? she doesn't have to! oh, i don't? no, but it's a tough choice, isn't it? yes.

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only a dignity memorial professional can celebrate a life like no other. find out how at sanfranciscodignity.com. a small group of gop senators are signaling opposition that can block their own party's massive tax overhaul. now the trump administration is signaling it may be willing to

budge on major provision in republican tax plan taking aim at obamacare. speaking yesterday, white house budget director mick mulvaney suggested lobby administration wants to repeal original mandate. it is open to dropping the original bill to make sure a final bill gets to president trump's desk which may take bending of the rules. >> we're using reconciliation so that we only need 50 votes in the senate instead of 60. one of the ways to gain the system is to make things expire. the bush tax cuts back in early 2000 did the same thing. supposedly expire after nine years. we tell folks this. if it's good policy, it will become permanent. if it's bad policy, it will become temporary. that's just the way it is. it's done to force or shoe hole the policy in. >> i don't think anybody doubts

where the white house is on repealing and replacing obamacare. we absolutely want to do it. if we can repeal part as part of a tax bill and have a tax bill that is still a good tax bill that can pass. that's great. if it becomes an impediment to getting the best bill with committee, we're open to taking it out. >> can you vote for the bill of the finance committee. >> i want to see changes in that bill. i think there will be changes. >> you can't vote for it as written. >> i haven't reached that conclusion yet because i think they're going to be further changes, but the biggest mistake was putting in a provision from the affordable care act into the senate bill that's not in the house bill and i hope that will dropped or that bills that have been introduced by senator aaron hicks and murray and bill nelson and myself will be adopted to mitigate the impact of those provisions. >> so where do we stand right now. ron johnson has come out and

said he'll be against this bill. susan collins we can't say anything definitively. she sounds far more open to supporting this than the health care reform bill. where's jeff flake, where's john mccain. what's the possibility the republicans actually pass the tax bill, which editorially i will say will blow a hole in the deficit for future generations and not revive the economy enough to make it worth all the give aways we're giving to the wealthiest of americans. how's that for a leading question. >> you identified the main members. you identified the main members we've yet to hear from. issue of obamacare mandate repeal. before that even came on the scene, you had big problems here under the surface with these members who actually care about the debt. >> you know what, i forget. bob corker who told us before this started being debated he would have a hard time supporting this tax reform bill because, again, what we do to

the national debt. >> right. we're at a point i talked with a democrat who had originally been courted by the white house and now said no way basically because we're at a point now and i think this is also potentially how bob corker is feeling. how folks like jeff flake may be feeling. at what point does the debt itself crash the economy. at what point does the debt itself when you're talking about long-term projections here if nothing is done and congress didn't change this becoming 100% of gdp itself crash the economy and i think you're going to have members like bob corker ask what exactly is your projection that you're pointing to that guarantees once we pass this bill, despite all of the flaws of taking more money or giving more money to the rich than the middle class of blowing up our national debt, does this actually promote the growth that you're promising, and they

shockingly if you read the wall street journal over the weekend, don't have that information. can't guarantee us this would create the growth. matter of fact, i don't know if you saw the "wall street journal," there was a question asking how much of you are going to invest. come on everybody, raise your hands. and they weren't doing it. >> he didn't get the response that he was expecting. >> he didn't get the response he wanted. >> coming up on morning joe, swing voters help deliver the presidency to donald trump, but a new analysis say they may not give him a second chance. we'll talk to jim, who managed barack obama's 2012 campaign next on morning joe. if you move your old 401(k) to a fidelity ira,

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that was a great take on the video. >> it's wonderful. >> really funny. >> great skits. >> we couldn't bring back barrack. we did bring back his campaign manager. trump's tweets are hurting him with the voters he needs the most. are they? >> also at the table. msnbc contributor, mike. >> i just came back from britain doing something for nbc sports. every time mika i and went over this summer. i went over this past weekend. i'm always shocked when i go

over there. usually people love kicking americans. going you americans think you -- so i've been expecting that the last two times i've gone to britain. i've heard the same thing. which is you guys have a problem with donald trump. we know america. he will go. and you guys will be fine. we're the ones who have a systemic problem that will be with us for a very long time. there is such a dour mood there. you worked on a couple campaigns recently over there. why is that? what's going on in britain? cameron, may and brexit. you see the country pulling apart at the seams. neither side is happy here. they can't figure out what the economic future is. they look at their place in the world and sayexactly is

the future. >> you get the sense you can talk about boris johnson. theresa may. you get a sense they don't want brexit to go through, but they're following the, what, 51%? it seems like nobody knows exactly what to do over there now. >> it is the conundrum they're facing right now is theresa may, the prime minster of the country, didn't want brexit who campaigned against brexit having to push through a very tough negotiation against the eu that basically is saying to her, why would we give you anything. and in the middle of this, on her own bench, she has majority of her party who wants brexit. these are really tough political problems in the country. saying explain to us what a future act of brexit is. there suspect an answer to though. >> you have jeremy corbyn so far out of the mainstream. i have a lot of people who i talked to that big contributors to labor. who are now saying he's old labor. i would never give him a dime.

i would never support his party in the future. >> we are working in ten countries around the world. jeremy corbyn is the single most out of mainstream politician of any country i've ever seen. he's a guy that leads the polls by six points. >> could you analyze two different elements. maybe they're not different. the brexit voters and president trump voters. united kingdom and the united states of america. the two lelectorates. angry, frustrated. what's the similarity, oh, we didn't know. >> it really isn't. if you look at the people. i've done a lot of work on this. these trump and brexit voters are under low educated voters in traditionally industrial places that have watched the economy

leave them. not real answers to jobs going forward. they're incredibly angry at a system they believe has screwed them. what they want is to send a message. 40% of people who voted for brexit didn't think it was going to happen. there's actually another tie which is nigel farage. nigel farage was the leading proponent of brexit. is now being investigated as one of the possible conduitins to t trump folks in russia. there are ties all over the place. >> there are also so many parallels. it shocks a lot of us that people that voted for barack obama eight years ago voted for donald trump in wisconsin. the first time i thought brexit might actually pass was when i spoke to some hard core labor identi people up in manchester. 20 years made fun of my being a

margaret thatcher fan. they voted for it. hold on, like old time labor. it's just like what is happening here. sort of party lines are being knocked down on the marks. >> you can see the wave coming. the week after the brexit vote i ran back home and went to washington and screamed at the democrats, wake up. this is a wave and this is coming and people are angry and you have to watch the midwest base. that's exactly what happened. the wave crashed across the united states and donald trump accidentally got elected president of the united states. >> which is a good segue. >> what did democrats do. >> i'm obsessed with voters who voted for barack obama and donald trump. and so we've spent like six months of my own dime saying let's really look at these people and see what they care about. and it's the economy. democrats have got to stop with the daily chasing of the trump tweets. it's the easiest thing in the world. sugar candy.

wake up every morning and trump saying something crazy and we go after it. voters are looking at one thing and one thing only. is my economic future getting better. while donald trump has a 25% negative approval rating with these voters , on the economy, e has a plus five. they still believe he's trying out there. the way you go after it is saying the truth. he's spending every day talking about tweets. talking about himself. he's not focused on the economy. if democrats could just stick to that message, we would be doing a much better job. >> so mike, let me ask you about how incredible it is. we find ourselves back in december of 1991 where bill clinton is going around factories that are shutting down in new hampshire and talking about how least going to revitalize the economy with work

force training. that was december 1991. that's why he won then. it's the economy stupid. he convinced new hampshire voters. saved himself in new hampshire. went for it and won it. here we are in 2017. i don't pin this on the democrats. it's republicans too. both parties have been incapable of responding to voters who have seen their lives, the american dream, bashed by globalization and by innovation. >> so where do voters like that go? >> here's my question to you, joe. are middle class americans actually going to buy into this idea that this bill is good for them. >> you're talking about the tax bill. >> yes, can they actually sell that to people? >> can they tell people this tax bill is carrying them out of a burning building. they're not guilty. somehow people want to believe anything. they want to believe somehow

prosperity is going to be around the corner in this country. it's not this bill. this doesn't help the middle class. and all it does is eventually flow upwards back towards, where, shocker. the 1%. >> again, my complaint about democrats for too long have been that they've wanted to just increase spending. and think that somehow that's going to trickle down and, you know, help americans. republicans have gone back to 1980 playbook. they want tax cuts and believe that's going to magically trickle down and change or somehow answer the questions that we've been struggling with since china opened up in 1978. >> republicans are doubley screwed on this tax bill. on one side. >> it's a hard hat campaign: hey, you're going to get doubly screwed on this. >> on one side i agree they have

to pass the tax bill for the base. they've shown nothing. done nothing for a year. donors sitting back saying why exactly. >> by the way, it's more for their -- not their base. it's more for the donors sgls all about the donors. >> their base also wants to see something pass. they want to see some. they do believe in tax cuts. on the other hand, you're exactly right. you look at swing voters in the states. they look at tax bill. it's abouts popular as donald trump. it's unbelievable. they are going to have to go home and defend this thing. when you're playing defense, you're losing. they're all going to have to go home and say to joe's point why they increase the debt massively, which is what the republicans used to stand against. and why they just gave a bunch of tax breaks. >> if you look at the most

vulnerable republican house seats, most likely they're in california. they're in illinois. they're in new york. those congressmen are talking with small business owners in california and illinois and new york and connecticut. >> you're seeing fixtures disappear from a lot of places that are similar to that beyond new jersey. he's out. a lot of others in the house which is probably in play. the senate has had fewer retirements than you think. that's for a year like what's coming. the house has had a lot of retiernlts. i wanted to ask jim something real quick. we spent the morning talking about how the republican party came from the party of michael steel in 2010 to the party of donald trump and roy moore in 2016. what happened. the 2012 election happened. we had a pretty brutal campaign. mitt romney was savagely attacked by the obama campaign. accusing him of a felony.

the offshoeres accounts issue ad negligent homicide. when republicans were making their piece with donald trump. >> you should add harry reid the majority saying. >> which barack obama did not refute. when republicans were making peace with trump they said we did nice. nice didn't work for us. let's do dirty. to what extent does obama 2012 own this moment to. >> if you look at the last seven presidential elections and who has won the elections. they're the campaigns that define the economic future of the country. weste we were absolutely going to have a fight with mitt romney on the future of the economy. we were going to make that the central part of our campaign. we did and we won. i'm not backing up from that at all. if you look at want to complain that the obama campaign was the first ever to go negative, you and i are going to have a long discussion. the fact these presidential

races are about contrast and differences. i'm incredibly proud of the campaign we won. both parties on this. right. there's no purity here in negative campaigning or just talking about, in our positions on the tax code or anything else. what we need to do though is the winner of the last seven presidential elections are the party who can put together forward thinking economic message. that's what voters want to hear. >> they want to hear a message they believe. that's the problem. that's going to take work. >> was hillary clinton the worst major party candidate in modern american history. >> no. no. >> pretty bad. >> who was worse than hillary clinton. >> you would have to say looking back, mcgovernor. come on. >> okay. all right. so hillary is the worst since 1972. >> she won by 3 million votes. let's not get out of hand here. he lost the election. >> you're very earnest. i like it.

>> by the way, guess what, donald trump is president of the united states and it took a lot of hard work on hillary clinton and the democratic side for that to happen. >> i have been very critical of my party too. we lost the economic argument. that's why we lost that presidential campaign. >> and a lot of what i said before plays into what happened here now. we'll talk more. the white house juposition roy moore has landed on let the voters of alabama decide, but moments ago white house counselor kellyanne conway seemed to tip the white house's hand. i don't know. sometimes she doesn't tell the truth, but if she was. >> sometimes? >> most of the time she doesn't, but she might have been. she seemed to tip the white house's hands as to whether they support moore's candidacy for president. >> doug jones in alabama, folks, don't be fooled. he'll be a vote against tax cuts. he's weak on crime.

weak on borders. strong on raising your taxes. terrible for property owners. and doug jones is a liberal why he's not saying anything and why the media are trying to boost him. >> so vote roy moore. >> i'm telling you that we want the votes in the senate to get this tax bill through. >> if she's telling the truth. >> she's in front of the white hou house. >> doesn't mean she's telling the truth. >> she's sending a message. and if that's not the position of the white house, they will step back from it, but i haven't seen any tweets stepping back from it yet. looks like the white house this morning has weighed in and are now telling voters, vote roy moore. >> i think that rational is right. they want a vote that is republican in the senate and they don't care how they get it. also, if donald trump were to call with roy moore to come out

and retroactively vindicates everybody says the same thing after the access hollywood tape. >> i'm just so glad there's such strong representatives and advocates for women in the white house. >> that's the third time this morning. >> i can't help myself. it's the void is incredible. >> mike barnicle. it looks again and let's underline this. i think this is the news of the morning. the trump white house is now telling voters in alabama vote roy moore. >> that's an endorsement of roy. we just heard an endorsement of roy moore. >> from the president's spokeswoman. >> and you will not hear anything else, but silence for the rest of the day. >> if nothing else is said from the white house, pushing back on kellyanne conway's comments, then that is a de facto endorsement by the trump white house of roy moore. it means that what he did -- what he's accused of doing and principals have no standing here. just means they got a win that

senate seat. they don't care about anything other than that. >> we famously all accurately predicted that ed gillespie was going to be elected governor of virginia. this morning we're all famously electing that alabama voters, may still vote for roy moore. what is your thought. >> look, democrats haven't won a statewide race in alabama since 2006. second most partisan state in the country. less swing voters. republicans win by an average of 14 points. so why roy moore is the worst candidate in my memory, he makes tod todd aiken look like ronald reagan here. he could still win the race. >> what you're saying is republicans have if you look at the numbers. they have a 14 point buffer. >> on the first day. >> that's right.

>> this race is december 12. >> time is his ally. >> kellyanne conway in front of the white house on fox news says roy moore for alabama. such a strong defender of women. >> jim, thank you very much. still ahead on morning joe. >> come back. >> even though you're a united fan. >> we are the -- >> he's from montana. still ahead, important story on teens and depression. researchers say a spike in suicide could be linked to something almost every kid uses these days and it's worse for girls. that's next on morning joe. >> if you're a parent, this is an important story. stick around. [ keyboard clacking ]

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new research suggests a link between teens and depression and smartphone usage. in a paper accomplished in the journal of clinical psychological science, researchers say there may be a

correlation between the recent spike in teens experiencing depression and attempting suicide with the amount of time they spend on their smartphones. researchers said they found teens to spend five or more hours spent five or more hours a day online were 70% more likely to have at least one suicide risk factor like depression, making plans or attempting suicide, compared to their counterparts who spent only one hour a day online. the correlation was driven almost exclusively by females with a 65% increase in suicide rates among adolescent females between 2010 and 2015 and, wow. this hits close to home. >> i saw this early this morning on twitter. and i sent it to alex, specifically, mika, because i've seen it in children's lives, not my own, but the cause of depression, but also i've seen it in our own lives. i've seen it in adult's lives

when your world is this. >> yes. >> instead of this. and only because i notice that it really does. it sucks you in. to this vortex -- >> i'm going to be totally transparent. >> i get home, i put it in a drawer -- >> you're so good about that. >> and people know if they want to reach me, they've got to reach me on my home phone -- >> they've got to call me. >> or call mika. >> i'm literally working with an expert. i literally put this on do not disturb. i never did this, for years, being in the news business. both my daughters -- i bought a kind of expert doctor into my home to help me understand how to get the kids away. you can't? you know why. because they do their homework on their computers and theirs at the messaging. there's no escape from it. at some point this is going to come to a head. we're going to realize we're destroying our children. >> i do think for educators, i don't know exactly how they do

it, but when parents -- and you've tried it and i've tried it. whenever parents try to get their kids offline and we're pretty -- >> they sleep with their phones. >> they always have the, oh, i'm doing my homework. >> but they are. >> they are. they're doing their home work on laptops. while they're doing that, you know, they've got their messages, they've got intragram, they've got twitter, they've got facebook, everything happening all at one time and they're never disconnected. especially for women, this study shows, for young girls, it is so depressing because the bullying you could escape at school at 3:30 stays with you 24 hours a day if you're connected online. >> there's nothing more frightening to these kids than whack they call off the grid. like if they have a broken phone. and for 24 hours, they're off the grid. >> new phenomenon. let's bring in cnbc's sara eisen

live at the new york stock exchange. the trump administration has been quietly increasing the scrutiny of applicants in the employment visa process. what can you tell us about the changes so far? >> yes, the administration clamping down on immigration, specifically making it harder for businesses to hire foreign workers. according to "the wall street journal," the administration has been scrutinizing those h 1-b visas for overseas workers that come here on skilled visas. we haven't seen any broad policy change from congress or the trump administration but apparently what we have seen is that it's sending back more than 1 in 4 applications between january and august. and that is way up from what we saw that time last year, where it sent back fewer than 1 in 5 applications. look, this is very popular, these h1bs, in the tech community, silicon valley in particular. they argue we need the best and brightest to work for american companies and we have to address

a talent shortage. critics and members of the trump administration have argued in the past it displaces american workers and puts them at an unfair advantage. either way, we're noticing this trend. the journal pointing it out and immigration lawyers are expecting more of a crackdown on this program and obviously other forms of legal and illegal immigration, back to you. >> sara eisen, thank you very much. coming up, whether an illegal nuclear launch order can be refused. >> this is fascinating. >> his surprising answer. i realize that ah, that $100k is not exactly a fortune. well, a 103 yeah, 103. well, let me ask you guys. how long did it take you two to save that? a long time. then it's a fortune. well, i'm sure you talk to people all the time who think $100k is just pocket change. right now we're just talking to you. i told you we had a fortune. yes, you did. getting closer to your investment goals starts with a conversation.

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packed with goodness. i think some people think we're stupid. we're not stupid people. we think about these things a lot. when you have this responsibility, how do you not think about it. so what people forget is this is a military mission and a military function. and since the day i joined the service, 36 years ago, every year, i get trained in the law of armed conflict. the law of armed conflict has certain principles. if you execute an unlawful order, you could go to jail. you could go to jail for the rest of your life. it applies to nuclear weapons. it applies to small armor tactics. it applies to everything. i provide advice to the president. he'll tell me what to do. if it's illegal, guess what's going to happen. >> you say no? >> i'm going to say mr. president, that's illegal.

guess what he's going to do, he's going to say what will be legal? and we'll come up with options to respond to whatever the situation is and that's the way it works. >> that was air force general, commander of the u.s. straw strategic command. at the hala fax international security forum on saturday. >> feel a little better. >> there have been so many people who have stood up, stepped forward and proven american institutions more often than not work even in the face of constant external challenges. >> yes, i mean, what the general didn't get to is, you know, chain of command, commander in chief on down. and it would be interesting to see if he would be willing to disrupt the chain of command if he felt an illegal order for nuclear war was issued. >> sounded like he would. final thoughts? >> yes, i think he's talking about something preemptive as opposed to responsive where that system is designed for speed. in that instance, you would probably respond as anybody would. by the way, as we would want them to. donald trump is not going to be

last president. >> right, mike. >> you know what, the greatest generation isn't just my pop's generation, general heiden sounded exactly like the greatest generation with those comments. >> we talked about this before there is so many people in this government that have stepped up. we may not agree with politically on certain things but have stepped up in critical times over the past 11 months. there's a lot to look at in this country, be negative about. there's also a lot to look at and say wait a second, we've got some people that are standing in the gap. >> that does it for us this morning. >> mika disagrees. >> i had a final thought but i'm not -- >> you already said it three times. >> i'm going to say it three types. i disagreed about something with kristin sgrgillibrand. okay, hold on, i'm going to say it. here's the deal, here's the deal. >> i'm associatisorry, stephani >> victims have a voice. guess who else feels like they finally have a voice? politicians who are under