great thanksgiving. right now, more news with my colleague stephanie ruhle, happy thanksgiving, my friend. >> happy thanksgiving to you, chris jansing. all right, good morning, everyone. i'm stephanie ruhle here in washington, d.c. happy thanksgiving. we've got a lot to cover. starting with going public. the first television interview with one of the women accusing congressman john conyers of inappropriate conduct, talking about the atmosphere she had to work under. >> i'd been called up there and he was walking around in his underwear. >> roy moore now fund-raising, fund-raising, off president trump's de facto endorsement of the embattled alabama senate candidate. >> let me just tell you, roy moore denies it. that's all i can say. >> and get ready for thanksgiving, where you are going to get smart on taxes. everything you need to know to be fully armed when the gop tax plan comes up at your

thanksgiving day table today. all right, we're going to start this morning with the growing controversy over two politicians, congressman john conyers and senate hopeful roy moore. it's bipartisan this time. a new accuser says conyers was verbally abusive to her. meanwhile, conyers' attorney released a defiant statement. he says the 27-term democrat has no intention of stepping down. moore, equally defiant. the difference is, he still has a big supporter in his corner, a new one, president donald trump. it's a head scratcher for me. we have a great panel this morning to help us break down both stories. i want to go first to nbc's kelly o'donnell. what is the latest on congressman conyers? >> well, good morning and happy thanksgiving, we're in palm beach of course covering the president and john conyers has some new developments. of course, it's important to point out he is a michigan democrat who is known as the

dean of the house, which means he's the longest serving member of congress, 52 1/2 years in office. and there have been a couple of allegations made of sexual harassment that go back over time and a new accuser who has come forward, putting her name on the record, appearing on camera, not making a sexual harassment claim, but saying that conyers did not treat her respectfully at times during her service on the judiciary committee in the 1990s. her name is melanie sloan. he's gone on to be an ethics lawyer and often do work on behalf of the public that holds to account members of congress in both parties. here's melanie sloan making part of her accusation about the environment in which she worked when serving on the staff for john conyers. >> he became increasingly verbally abusive and would berate me loudly and over ridiculous things. one time he called me out into

the hall and screamed at me for not wearing stockings when he never wore socks. >> and when sloan spoke to nbc news, she says part of the reason she wanted to go on camera now and put her name along with these allegations is to make it easier for women who have worked on capitol hill over the years to come forward. she described an environment where when you are working for a member of congress or a powerful committee, she found it difficult to relay her concerns or seek help and wants to be part of a movement to try to make women feel more capable of coming forward without fear of retaliation. now, representative conyers attorney has put out a lengthy statement saying he maintains his innocence on all of the accusations and he has no intention of resigning and if allegations were a reason to force people out of their jobs, he said there would be a lot of people out of work, not only on capitol hill but other industries as well.

stef. >> well, that's okay, if there's abusive behavior and people have to lose their jobs over it, so be it. to those who are victims who feel like they don't have anywhere to go, guess what you've got, the free press. and here's a statement from the lawyer of congressman john conyers just in, quote, while these allegations are serious, they are simply allegations. if people were required to resign over allegations, a lot of people would be out of work in this country including many members of the house, senate and even the president. congressman conyers has no plans to resign. all right, let's move on to a different story. nbc's vaugh hillyard is in birmingham. you've been there now for over a week. you still have what, 20 days until the actual election. give us the latest on the roy moore campaign. >> yes, good morning, stephanie. roy moore is down for the weekend, he's down in etowah county, in his hometown of galante. the campaign says we're not going to be seeing him until at

least monday, which marks ten days in which roy moore has not publicly appeared down here in alabama. we're 19 days away from the special election with democrat doug jones. roy moore these last couple of days is trying to use donald trump's a guess tacit endorsement to his advantage at this point. he sent out a fund-raising e-mail just yesterday saying i appreciate donald trump for defending my honor and my character instead of cheering on the lies and false accusations like the insiders in washington. donald trump just one year ago under similar circumstances, allegations, won alabama with the highest vote total for any presidential candidate in history. so roy moore is trying to use that to his advantage. doug jones who has been on the campaign trail is up on the air waves. we've been watching tv like many here in alabama on this thanksgiving morning and you see one doug jones ad on after the other. doug jones released a new web video yesterday which i think is worth a play here. >> gina richardson. wendy miller. kelly harrison thorpe.

and the list is growing. they were girls when roy moore immorally pursued them. now they are women, witnesses to us all of his disturbing conduct. will we make their abuser a u.s. senator? >> doug jones is running that web video, outside these other advertisements on air, and it's taking on roy moore with the faces of these nine accusers. roy moore has been defiant, saying he's not getting out of the race, calling these allegations misleading and untrue. yet there's still many questions around this. he has not been open in speaking with the media. he's not holding campaign events. yesterday, he lost his communications director who left the campaign. roy moore's campaign is down to just six staffers here in alabama. two of those are florida operatives. nbc news has more people on the ground than roy moore does at this point and we're 19 days out and i think the question that really should stem from that is how would roy moore set up a senate office, you know,

senators have not only a dozen or two staffers in washington, d.c. but they also have to field positions for the committees. they also have local offices across the state. it's not dissimilar from the conversation we took part in one year ago. with a bunch of hesitant republican, including in particular young republicans, baby to set up an operation, stephanie. >> i think that's exactly point. we can't get too cute there. guess what, if he does win, he will figure that out. roy moore in his hometown of gadsden this weekend. i know where he won't be, the mall. my panel, robert chanem. brendan greely, a contributor to the economist free exchange blog and nile stannage. happy thanksgiving to you. president trump, i was very shocked with his comments, bau because he didn't need to say anything. we criticized and said aren't you going to weigh in? he had a pass to say let the people of alabama decide but he didn't, he dipped in.

how deep is he going to go? >> i wasn't surprised by the president saying that. the president is a very loyal guy. when you're loyal to hill, he's loyal back to you. roy moore's been very loyal to donald trump. so with donald trump, he's got a way with him where you saw when he was on board marine one -- >> one more time, you just said president trump is a very loyal guy, for real? >> i think when you take a look at -- look, he's not bad mouthed steve bannon. the reason why he's not bad mouthed steve bannon, because steve bannon has been very loyal to president trump when he left the white house. >> you don't criticize him, he won't criticize you. >> i think that's pretty pred t predictable with the president. when he was about to board marine one, he was very defiant by saying well, you know, he denied it, he denied it. the president has this mind-set that look, if he denied it, just like with the access hollywood stuff, then it's true. my point simply is -- i want to go back to another thing reporter said on the ground. just because roy moore only has a handful of staffers does not

mean that he would not -- that he possibly can't win. we all thought donald trump was going to lose this election because he did not have a field staff and the states, michigan, pennsylvania and guess what, he won those states. >> look at all the money doug jones is raising. we didn't see that help. when local also see all that outside money, we don't care about that. >> that's right. >> brendan greely, president trump, was this a good move for him? if we see roy moore end up in the senate, what is that going to do for the republican party and for trump? >> i mean, i think all the republican party seems to care about right now is making sure they have that vote in the senate but i think that donald trump has to stand roy moore for the same reason the republican party has to stand by donald trump. >> but they don't, neither one has to. what if morality stood above politics? >> it kind of does. >> all the people in the middle who would stand up and say thank you? >> and it kind of does.

mitch mcconnell, rick santorum, are all record saying roy moore should not be seated. which is pretty unprecedented. >> the president of the united states is not on record saying that. this is the problem. i think this goes to your point, where there's this sort of debasement of political culture, right, where party identity trumps, pardon the expression, other concerns of decency. i mean, there are people who certainly dislike president trump's ideology, but i would argue that a lot more people feel that his whole manner of being is a kind of assault on decency and respectability. >> i want to continue this conversation but at this moment president trump is speaking to the troops via video conference wishing them a happy thanksgiving. let's take a quick look. >> good morning. happy thanksgiving. >> you too, happy thanksgiving, mr. president. >> you have a good one.

>> we're ready, mr. president. >> hello, everybody, and happy thanksgiving. very, very special people to me and everybody in this country, that i can tell you. i've got five deployed units bravely representing each branch of our armed forces that we're going on live right now and surrounding me is a lot of press. better me than you, believe me, folk, better me than you. it's an honor to speak with you all. to give god thanks for the blessings of freedom and for the heroes who really have this tremendous courage that you do, to defend us and to defend freedom. so we want to thank you all very much, very, very special people. it doesn't get more special. representing the army, we have the 1st brigade cam bombat team the 82nd airborne conducting

operations in kandahar, afghanistan, in support of operation freedom sentinel. kern colonel toby, where is toby, thank you, toby. i hear so many good things about you, toby, that's good news. but toby maxit, happy thanksgiving to all of you. and i have to say this directly to the folks in afghanistan, everybody's talking about the progress you've made in the last few months since i opened it up. we opened it up, we said go ahead, we're going to fight to win. we're not fighting anymore to just walk around, we're fighting to win. and you people are really -- you've turned it around over the last three to four months like nobody's seen. and they are talking about it. so thank you very much. brave incredible fighters. direct support team gulf of the marine corps special operations is also on the line. these great marines are

operating in iraq in support of operation inherent resolve. major jonathan rigline is the commanding officer. semper fi, semper fi. i have a great marine who's the chief of staff, as you know, john kelly, doing an incredible job, just like any marine would. and major, to you and to all the marines doing this great work, in delivering defeat after defeat to isis, what you're doing with isis is, again, being talked about. we're being talked about again as an armed forces. we're really winning. we know how to win. but we have to let you win. we weren't letting you win before. they were letting you play even. we're letting you win. i also want to say hello to captain dave stoner and all of the sailors aboard the "uss monterey" sailing in support of both the 5th and 6th fleets.

the "monterey's" primary missions are anti-surface warfare and anti-submarine warfare. thank you to everyone aboard the "uss monterey" for your dedication, thank you very much. we're also joined by the 74th expeditionary fighter squadron from incirlik air base. lieutenant colonel craig marsh, your sqauadron has done a tremendous job, tremendous, and we appreciate it. the fight against isis, it's coming our way. coming our way. big, big difference. a lot of things have happened. they say we've made more progress against isis than they did in years of the previous administration. and that's because i'm letting you do your job. you're performing more than 1,000 missions over the skies of iraq and syria the last four months.

we're very, very proud of you. believe me, everybody in this country is watching and they're seeing positive results for a change instead of the neutral and negative reports. it's all positive. to the coasties aboard the cutter, welcome and happy thanksgiving. lieutenant ryan hudson. you and the entire crew aboard the rangel are doing incredible work in the arabian gulf performing theater security, defense operations and maritime infrastructure protection. thank you very much for your service. very important area. for each of you, i know it's hard to be away from home at this time of the year. we're doing well at home. the economy's doing really great. when you come back, you're going to see with the jobs and companies coming back into our country and the stock market just hit a record high. unemployment's the lowest it's been in 17 years. so you're fighting for something

real. you're fighting for something good. a lot of things have happened with our country over the last very short period of time. and they're really good. really good. i'd especially like saying the companies are starting to come back. now we're waiting on tax cuts. big fat beautiful tax cuts. hopefully we'll get that and then you can really see things happen. so as we give thanks to this holiday, i know i speak on behalf of all americans when i say that we totally support you. in fact, we love you. we really do. we love you. and this is a thanksgiving that you won't forget. you're in a very different part of the world than you were used to but boy, are you doing a job there. and thank god for you. thank god for you. we also want to give thanks to our loved ones, our a mazing military families. i know they miss you and they miss you so deeply and so badly. they're every bit as important

as everyone else you work with because they put up with so much. they put up with the time away and all of those things that they have to endure and they endure it because they love our country, because they love you. and believe me i know so much about military families. they respect and appreciate what you're doing for this country. and they respect and appreciate what you're doing for them as a family. so your families love you and they miss you. and, again, i'm going to now -- i'm surrounded by reporters and press and i'm going to ask them to leave and we're going to have very confidential personal conversations. we're set up for that. it's really wonderful what technology can do. so i'll ask the press to get out and i'll say you're fired, and by the way, media, happy thanksgiving -- >> president trump at his estate in west palm beach in mara lago.

speaking specifically to five different groups. it is so hard obviously for them to be so far from home. in his remarks, he talked about the big beautiful tax cut, his big beautiful tax cut. he told those troops when they came home, they would be seeing all those companies coming to the u.s., bringing jobs back. and he referenced the strong stock market. which is so interesting, because we have to remember, the stock market is not a direct reflection on the economy. and it's unclear whether those who are overseas actually have any stock investments. so let's bring my panel back in. what did you think of that? >> two things. one, it's nice for the president to do that. >> for sure. >> the commander in chief. he should be thanking the men and women who serve and protect our freedoms. maybe i'm overreading this but it didn't seem to be very authentic. he seemed to be heavily scripted and maybe again i'm reading much more into it. i'm used to a president looking

into the camera and thanking the men and women, talking about them and not about me. meaning the president. talking about them and what they're doing and not about, to use his words, a beautiful tax cut. it was a little bit disjointed. it didn't seem authentic to me but maybe i'm reading much more into it. >> nobody wages culture war effectively as donald trump. it was amazing to watch him in the message to the troops doing it right then and there, talking about the reason we're different is this administration is letting you do your job, they're letting you fight. these are all cultural signals. >> turned it around in the last four months. >> the other guys, they won't fight, they won't let you fight, we let you fight, that's what you do for us. i mean, that was amazing to watch. >> yes, i mean, i agree. i think this is on one hand, yes, it's an honorable thing to do obviously to talk to the troops but the speech is kind of pock marked by these political points. the idea that previous presidents didn't let the armed forces do their job.

the idea -- i think i'm quoting this correctly, that you're fighting for something real. whenever the real thing appears to be a booming stock market? i mean, i'm perplexed as to what point -- >> i wondered about that. he said he knew a lot about military families and he talked about, you know, what they're fighting for is the stock market and the tax cuts. i feel like when i was a kid and my dad was deployed, i wasn't super excited he was being deployed so we could pursue tax reform. i just wanted him to come home. >> to hear the president say i know so much about military families. i mean, the president didn't serve. >> well, i think what the president is doing, i think he probably thinking i'm speaking to my base. i'm speaking to the people that are hard core republicans. he may be right. so i think in his mind and probably in the staff's minds he knows this is just an extension of his base that just so happens to be in uniform. >> we appreciate that he sent that message.

while he's down at mara lago at his winter estate, he took the time to speak to the troops oversea because definitely the four of us, we do appreciate they're there. with the countdown to black friday under way, the onlean shopping boom is expected to soar. for the first time, new data shows more americans want to spend online versus shopping in stores. why? because it's so much easier. according to adobe analytics, consumers have already spent $28.6 billion shopping online this month. that is up almost 18% year over year. joining me is cnbc contributor ron insana. ron, we need to break this down because this has been a watershed year for retail in terms of online shopping. but just because everyone is spending so much online doesn't mean these retailers are winning. when we're spending online or in stores, we're desperate for deals and that's exactly what we're getting.

margins are nothing. >> certainly in the online world, that's true, the amazon effect that's hitting retailers has been quite profound. we're seeing this monstrous shift. it was expected to come eventually to online away from bricks and mortar stores. so we've seen very rough times for some big brand name retailers who have not kept pace with the likes of amazon and others who have more dynamic online presences. so there's been a shift in money. there are winners and losers. this becomes a zero sum game. although the economy is strong enough to support higher spending both in traditional retail stores, those that are hot, and then online as we will approach cyber monday after tomorrow's black friday. it looks like about 56% of americans according to the national retail federation will spend at least what they spent last year. that's a good sign for where we sit in the economy now. >> what about retail jobs? normal, we see a huge kickup in seasonal workers. seeing that you're seeing such a big shift to online shopping, we know macy's for example is

hiring 4% less employees over the holidays than they did last year. is that going to hurt the labor market? >> well, it could, but there's been also a transition of employment towards those online companies like amazon, which now employs over half a million people, well up from where it was when it started 20 years ago obviously but it is an enormous employer in the united states. the type of retail job is changing. so yes, while you see those companies who are struggling, the macy's of the world, sears, kmart, jcpenney and others, you see the retailers who are online and who also have robust online presence are hiring more people in a different capacity. so the nature of the job is changing. where the job is located is changing. amazon looking for another headquarters in north america somewhere. there's a trade there. the net effect might be more jobs in the long run. but there's displacement in the short run. >> are we going to see an even greater exaggeration in terms of the death of the shopping mall?

tomorrow is the biggest shopping mall day there is. this year, we saw more shopping malls close than ever in history. if we don't see people flood the malls tomorrow, what will be the fate of the mall? >> well, it is expected that people are going to go to the mall because there's still the social impact of taking the family out, getting a bite to eat, doing some window shopping, some actual shopping. there's a phrase we're going to hear a lot more in the coming weeks months and years and that is the experiencial shopping. malls are becoming more experience oriented including movie theaters, including more restaurants, interactive types of stores. that's what's happening to malls around the country even as some of them are shuttered and stand-alone stores are also being put to bed. we're going to see more of these malls focus on an experience that includes not just shopping and dining but other attractions as well. and that's how the malls of america are going to change over time. >> we know small business and large business and consumer

confidence all kicked up with president trump's win. we know that president trump just a few minutes ago was touting the strength of the stock market when talking to the troops overseas. are we going to see that translate into actually impacting the real economy, meaning disposable income, people out there shopping? >> it already is. this is the third longest economic expansion that started in july of 2009. it's accelerating now. we have 6.1 million open jobs. wage pressures are beginning to grow. middle income families are starting to see higher wages as companies bid up scarce workers. we have more jobs than we can fill. so that's putting some upward pressure on wages. that's a good thing for workers. the stock market, it is a reflection to a certain extent not only of the domestic economy which is strengthening a bit but the global economy which is strength eening a lot and that' helping the u.s. expand as well. we are seeing a better economic environment, part of it, and we have to give the president his due. deregulating some industries,

that's creating a little more investment here at home. by and large, though, this is still an extension of the recovery that's been ongoing since 2009 and the stock market bull market if you will that began in march of 2009 that's up almost 300% since then. >> let's just say that one more time. the stock market since 2009, up almost 300%. ron, thank you. we're going to take a break. next, more allegations of sexual assault in hollywood. we're going to go live to l.a. for the latest accusations made against people in the entertainment industry. patrick woke up with a sore back. but he's got work to do. so he took aleve this morning. if he'd taken tylenol, he'd be stopping for more pills right now. only aleve has the strength to stop tough pain

for up to 12 hours with just one pill. tylenol can't do that. aleve. all day strong. all day long. ♪ pudding... [sigh] did grandpa win again? yes! download the new words with friends 2 today.

welcome back. you're watching msnbc on this thanksgiving morning. and it is time for your morning primer. everything you need to know to get your day started. the uss reagan is leading the search for three sailors missing after a navy plane crashed in the philippine sea. eight sailors have been rescued. the argentinean navy says an unusual noise was detected hours after a missing submarine was last heard from. the navy is trying to determine if that noise was an explosion, if crew members are alive, they're running out of oxygen. no conspiracy involving the shooting death of an 18-year veteran homicide detective. he was killed one day before he

was scheduled to testify about corruption in the department. and a federal judge has struck down part of a texas law banning the most common type of abortions in the second trimester. the texas attorney general says he's appealing the decision. and u.s. attorney general jeff sessions has ordered a review of the national database used for background checks on gun buyers. the shooter who killed 26 people in a texas church earlier this month was not in the system even though he had a criminal record. and there are new developments in the growing sexual harassment scandal in hollywood. according to the "l.a. times," the beverly hills police department is investigating 12 separate sexual assault al gags allegations made against people in the entertainment industry. nbc's steve patterson from l.a. with more on this. >> first of all, one of the most strike things i think i've seen on this is about a week ago or so, you just read off a list of all the powerful men that had

allegations against them. that felt like ages ago because of how exponentially this scandal has grown now to include media, tech, business, you name it. the news business. all involved in this scandal. but it really started with that spark, those allegations against harvey weinstein in early october. we know the beverly hills police department weeks ago was investigating weinstein and director james toback. we know according to the "l.a. times" the scope of either that investigation or a brand-new investigation has expanded to now include 12 instances of sexual misconduct aimed against members of the entertainment business. police are not getting specific on those allegations as to protect the sanctity of the investigation but we know, again, according to "the times," that that investigation is ongoing. we also know that that joins with several other investigations, the los angeles police department, the d.a. has a task force that is looking into this, handling these abuse

claims. we know the new york police department has an investigation. in fact, one of the detectives there said there were credible allegations of rape against harvey weinstein. so that's one of the avenues they're pursuing along with all these other investigations joining in and looking and taking a really hard look at the entertainment industry. meanwhile, new allegations against these several big names that keep coming up, keep seeming to come out in the media, so, again, it's a scandal that just keeps growing and growing, stephanie. >> not good to talk about on thanksgiving, makes you lose your appetite. all right, steve, happy thanksgiving to you. thanks. with a growing number of high-profile men losing their jobs over allegations of sexual misconduct, i want to talk about this. because, remember, they're not the only ones paying the price. there are lingering effects that have a huge impact on all the employees they touched. joining me now is claire atkinson, nbc news digital senior media editor. claire, i really love this piece you put out. because we forget, harvey

weinstein, for example, his company has several big movies and tv shows in the pipeline. when all of that gets scrapped, which it has, what does that mean for everybody working on it? >> absolutely. when harvey was -- the allegations about harvey first surfaced in october, it took companies a couple of days to decide that they didn't want to work with weinstein company. now there's a zero tolerance policy for any of these guys badly behaving and companies are saying within hours you're done. now that has a knockdown effect on all the people they work with, all of the projects. one of the most significant projects is "house of cards" on netflix. that's filmed down in baltimore. thousands of people could lose their jobs if that show goes awa away. charlie rose's staff, they had 18 people working there. it seems very unfair these people working with these bad guys or accused bad guys end up paying a penalty too. they lose their jobs.

the creative industry is a place where folks are kind of -- it's a freelance job by its very nature. but, again, there's this huge ripple effect that we forget about when these guys are fired and i spoke to gloria allred and she suggested that when these decisions are made to get rid of these people, that there should be some kind of contingency made for all the staff who will be affect today. >> do we know if any of the companies have made announcements like that? charlie rose has pledged to help his staff find jobs. but we haven't heard if charlie's going to continue to pay them. i mean, netflix for example, netflix is a multibillion dollar company. they could say to the "house of cards" staff we're going to pay you for x amount of time. it's not just baltimore. where they shoot "house of cards." it's just outside baltimore. it's like 20 minutes outside. that show has created like a mini economy for that area. >> right. >> who is going -- is there

anyone who's going to take ownership of that? whether it's tv networks or movie studios? they got a whole lot of dough. >> they really should, like you say, in baltimore, there's the folkings that serve the coffee, the hair and makeup people, there are so many people who if that show doesn't come back and all signs are that it won't, you know, these victims also, and yn we'll see what happens. there's a big financial story as well. hollywood canceling all these projects. seemingly there's a new allegation against a new entertainment figure every day. and i talked to sources this week who say we're standing by to see what we do if, you know, folks, you know, they're affected by these issues. >> but what are they doing? i mean, real time? in the wake of all these sexual misconduct allegations, do companies have active game plans? have they made announcements? >> i think it's difficult for them.

i talked to some folks at hbo yesterday and they said, you know, we've really got to see what's being alleged here before we decide to cancel any shows. so you and i both know there are always more stories to come. we hear about names. i think everybody's kind of on hot pins waiting to see who is next and, you know, what projects then get canceled moving forward. >> yes, i mean, in the case of charlie rose, the charlie rose show is owned by charlie and the show is put on by family foundations and -- we'll see. it's not like that's a show owned by a network. we'll see. but, again, charlie rose has pledged to help his team find other employment. i hope everyone does. all of those people, a, who could have been subject to harassment and, b, we don't want them to lose their jobs. really good interesting piece. important to think about the knockdown effect to all of those people around these very powerful men. coming up, how to talk taxes

over turkey day. everything you need to know about the republican tax plan as congress rushes to pass the bill before christmas and if you need some help cooking your turkey, butter ball, they've got you covered. the company has set up a turkey text line where you can text experts any questions you might have.

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the republicans and who want to get their tax reform bill on president trump's desk by christmas. you might be wondering what's to happen to your bottom line. right now, we're going to fill you in on what you need to know so you can sound smart or at least not get in a fist fight over your thanksgiving dinner. joining me now to break it all down, brendan greely, economist, free exchange bloc. politico's chief economist ben white. and cnbc contributor ron insana. i stole this idea from you. i heard it on your podcast. it's brilliant. so let's start nfrom the beginning. we're all sitting at the table together. basics. the way you look at this, who's getting the tax cut, who's getting the tax hike and why. >> if you are corporate america, you are getting a giant tax cut under this. you're going from 35% as your top rate to 20% as your top rate. if your a corporation, you're super psyched this thanksgiving. you can celebrate.

if you're are an average middle class family, chances are in the first year you're probably getting a little bit of a tax cut as well. most income groups see a little bit of a tax cut. later on, you're not getting that much of a tax cut because a lot of this stuff phases out. corporations keep their tax cuts. individuals don't. the other piece of this is if you are a person celebrating thanksgiving in new jersey and new york or california and you've got a big mortgage, you take a lot of deduction on your state and local taxes, you could be getting a tax hike in this and you probably won't be super psyched about that. >> i'm going to play my mom here at the thanksgiving table in new jersey where she is and she's going to go, companies, they're doing so well, look at the stock market, rich guys, they're only getting richer. how's that going to help us? i mean, people out there, average joes, they haven't got raises. >> that's absolutely right. when you really kind of -- >> louis, you have to say that's absolutely right louis. because remember, i'm my mom here. >> you are absolutely right, talking to your mother. if you're in new jersey as i am as well, you're going to lose those state and local income tax

deductions which are quite high. if you really wanted -- if the folks who are writing this really wanted to give middle class americans a tax cut, you'd do it two-year payroll tax holiday. you'd stop having them put in their social security and medicare taxes. and that would be cash in their pockets. what this is -- it's unclear what the economic rational behind this particular tax reform plan is, other than as ben said to give corporations and largely speaking wealthier americans a tax cut. you're going to get about a 1.7% tax cut. which means if you're making $50,000 a year, it's just not all that much spending money. maybe about $80 a month for the first year that the tax plan would be in place if it indeed passed. >> at which point my mom louis would say, holiday, the only holiday i'm not going on is the one i can't afford because my taxes are so high, brendan greely, is this tax cut really going to cause companies to give people raises? because i don't see it. >> louis, i'm going to break this down for you, right.

>> yes. >> there are things we know will happen in economics and then there are things we hope will happen. it's very important -- >> you know what assuming does, it makes it -- we're going to leave it because it is thanksgiving dinner. no ucursing at the table. >> oh, louis, stop it. all right, we know that the changes to, you know, everything that ben just laid out, that is 100% going to happen. now, why are we doing it? we hope that there will be increased business investment and that will cause economic growth as a consequence. the economics on that aren't that clear. there's not -- there's lots of reasons why corporations have a lot of cash right now, borrowing is cheap, as you and i talk about all the time. if they were going to make a business investment, they'd already be doing it, right. again, that's something we hope will happen, right. so are they going to give people raises, this $4,000 a year raise people are going to get. i don't know. probably not. there's not much reason to think that will happen. there's not much good impeeric economics behind it that says it's going to happen.

but again, so increased business investment, $4,000 raise for everybody. that's the thing we hope will happen. the tax cuts that we're talking about, we know they will happen. >> all right, ben white, how about donald trump himself, you know, donald trump has gone up there and he has said this isn't going to help me, it's going to kill me. when i look at this estate tax, that seems like it's going to be great for don jr., ivanka and tiffany. >> yes, it's not just the estate tax, but you're absolutely right. if you lower the estate tax like these plans in the house and senate would do, people like the trump children would be able to inherit a great deal of money and not pay tax on it. so there's that piece that will be helpful to the trump family. there's also the fact this would lower the tax rate on pass-through businesses. these are individuals who receive income from their businesses on their individual side of their taxes. that's most of the trump organization, most of the trump businesses. he's got tons of pass-through businesses that would go from the top marginal rate of around 35% to 40% down to 25%. >> let's get serious --

>> and the amt, get rid of the amt, that's a big tax cut for donald trump. >> then let's get serious for a moment and, ron, i ask you, you know, we talk about this bill every single day. >> yep. >> and, you know, over the weekend, i saw a republican senator say people out there don't like it because it hasn't been reported correctly. i want to point out we're approaching 150 days since i have asked the white house for someone working on tax reform to sit down and do an interview with me. they've said no. why is it that this thing is likely to get voted through? i know, ron that republicans need a big win here. they need a legislative win. let's say this thing goes through and it hurts millions of people in america, it balloons our debt. how is that going to be a win for this administration? >> as you say, it is a political win and it is a political document. i would agree with both gentleman. this is not really an economic stimulus plan. this is something that allows them to say they got tax reform done for the first time in 31

years. >> why is that a political win if this plan fails the american people? >> well, i agree with you entirely. listen, i've been against this bill in its current construction since they began talking about it. i don't think it's necessary. i don't think it's properly times. i don't think it's properly constructed. i do think it will ultimately hurt the average american more than help but they want to say they've gone from the party of opposition to a party that can govern and just simply passing this at least in their view is looked at as a legislative win and it's a big deal and they get to claim ownership of it. >> where i don't understand that is we can sit here and evaluate the administration every day and say well, it's a political win, it's a political loss. you know, it's a win for paul ryan. but brendan greely, my aunt joan, she probably doesn't know who paul ryan is, and if her taxes go up, if her life is worse and if she can't deduct her student debt, she's not going to vote for a republican again. so how is it going to be a win

if it hurts the american people? >> am i talking to joan or louis now? >> you're talking to the table, both really. >> all right, joan and louis, the reason -- i do believe that paul ryan, who's the speaker of the house, joan, i do believe he is sincere in his belief that if you lower taxes on capital if you get them as low as they possibly can, that will stimulate business investment and we'll see economic growth. i don't believe that is the problem. and not many economists agree with him on that. that's the challenge about this. let's go back to the framework with both louis and joan. things we know will happen. things we think and hope will happen. this idea if you lower taxes on business owners, that if you create this arbitrary distinction between my salary and somebody else's business income, they will spend and the economy will grow as a consequence. economics aren't that good on that. they don't predict that paul ryan believes they will predict. however, i genuinely believe that paul ryan believes this is

going to happen. >> if i could just interject. the cost of capital on an after-tax basis for businesses right now is negative. it can't get much lower than it already is. as we talked in the last segment, when about the economy we have 6.1 million open jobs. we have a shortage of workers. not a shortage of jobs. that's what this policy doesn't address. >> okay. that's the issue. this plan does not address the issues that plague america. health care, infrastructure, work force participation. if you balloon our debt, you're going to cut programs that people need to survive. i want to ask you ben. how much do you think, we know we're in the mark up period on the senate side. how much is it going to change before it gets voted upon? if you're frank rule. if you run a business in the state of new york and you're saying, i run a mechanical engineering firm.

i'm not sure if that's going to get passed through status or maybe they'll get rid of the state and local. what do you think will change by the time this gets marked up? i pressed jim of ohio on carried interest. he said it's going to probably be gone with the mark up. what's going to change once we see this thing. it's absurd that carried interest is still in there. find me a hedge fund manger who will look you in the eye and give a rational reason why it's in there. you can't find one. >> you can't find one because there isn't one. i'm not sure that gets whiiped t because that's a powerful lobby fighting to keep that. you will see is the senate has no deduction for state and local tac taxes and you can't deduct mortgage interest. there's plenty of republicans from high tax states, places where people pay a lot in state

and local taxes. i think you'll see some expansion of that to make some republicans happier. at some point they'll probably have to address the deficit and debt impact of this. there are republican senators who still care about the fact we're adding 1.5 trillion over ten years and probably more than that. that's why i think it's not impossible that this 20% corporate rate can tick up a little bit higher than that. the president doesn't want it. to make the numbers work you can probably go a bit higher. you're not going to find a corporate executive who says i have to have 20% or i'm going to fail. i'd look for some changes like that. >> all right. >> last point. >> joan louise frank. all the ruhl femalamily. both guys were talking about the cost of capital. if you're going to invest in your business you have to take cash or borrow money. the more expensive it is to do that, the less likely you are to

invest in your business. this bill, the whole logic behind this bill is it's going to lower the cost of capital. the cost of capital couldn't be any lower right now. corporations are sitting on cash. they've been sitting on cash for five years now. >> he gave janet yellen her walking papers and she kept interest rates low. >> couldn't be easier to boar remoney now. this bill solves a problem we don't have. >> we might end up feeling like turkeys. that was a bad joke. i'm not going to fight with my taxes over taxes. i've spending thanksgiving with my in laws and they have one thing in mind, the redskins winning. >> good luck with that. >> happy thanksgiving. >> thank you. >> go skins. coming up, macy's thanksgiving day parade officially under way and this year security tighter than ever. anti-terror squads, bomb sniffing dogs and sniper teams

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welcome back. the macy's thanksgiving day parade is under way in new york city. the tradition is more than 90 years old and attracts millions of spectators each year. i love this parade. i'm sad not to be there this year. in order to keep those people safe the new york city police department is going all out to

secure one of our nation's biggest out door holiday events. they have promised layers of security and hundreds of officers have been put in place. thank you to the nypd and thank you to macy's for putting this parade on year after year. it's a huge expense. we know what a tough year this is for retail. year after year macy's says they do it for the american people. talk to us about what the new york city police department is doing to keep the people on the sidelines safe. >> reporter: absolutely. one of the things i should tell you is this is probably the greatest amount of security they've ever had for the 91 years this parade has been put on. there are layers of officers here. a lot of them that you can see such as this one in uniform but there are also hundreds of officers that you can't see. everybody out here is told me that they are very happy for it, including my buddy here zach who is a little cold but he's still happy. from the little kids to the big

kids, like the thomkins who came in from arkansas. it's on their bucket list, right? >> number one on mine. >> i'm living here dream. >> it's something, she was almost crying. >> yes. i'm so excited. >> why did you say this is something that had to be on your bucket list? >> i had been watching it as little as my grand kids. i said every year i'm going to be there. >> you made it happen for her. >> i did. i'm a good guy. >> he's a good guy. they have layers of family here. you see armed police officers, all kinds of security officials out here. stephanie, everything on the ground as well as in the air. i want to pan over a bit so you can see what's happening here. there are officer who is are making certain nothing gets through this crowd that's not supposed to be here. back to you. >> i love thanksgiving. when i see that, you noi whknow

i'm reminded of, that i love new york. thank you have much. that wraps us up this thanksgiving hour. i'll be back at 11:00 a.m. i hand you back to new york city where my colleague will take over. thanks. have a good rest of your day. i'll take to you in about an hour. we want to get right to the news. the president made in just the past hour. came in a message from president trump to the troops. while it included thanks for their service on this holiday, the president unexpectedly used as a time to discuss the stock market and what he sees as his economic accomplishments. for more on this kelly is following the president from his vacation spot in florida. it's good to talk to you on this something morning. thanks so much for working. talk to us more about the president's message today. >> reporter: right back at you and happy holidays to our viewers who are probably working on their preparati