in wisconsin, 22-vote margin, and she got 31,000 votes. those are states that decided the election. that's why investigators are looking at jill stein. it's no surprise the reaction to the russian meddling is polarizing but it doesn't matter whether the investigation goes right or left. these leads need to be run down. so if the committee's doing it, maybe that's a good thing. that's our show. "hardball" starts now. bad santa. let's play "hardball." ♪ good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington where it was a day of high drama at the capitol. at this hour, we're awaiting a senate vote on the republican tax bill that could come at any time. the house voted this afternoon, passing the bill despite every democrat opposing it, along with 12 republicans.

late today there was a wrinkle. house republicans said they will slightly alter the bill and revote tomorrow to ensure it fits with senate rules that allow it to pass with a simple majority. the senate parliamentarian had rejected several provisions snuck into the bill that aren't budget related. they included, catch this, something on home schooling from ted cruz. and a tax benefit for a college, guess where, in mitch mcconnell's home state of kentucky, earmarked just for that college. it is expected to pass the senate tonight. the tax bill slashes corporate tax rates. it kits have you had tax rates though the wealthy will disproportionately benefit. republicans celebrated in what amounts to the most sweeping tax overhaul in a generation. >> this is a day i've been looking forward to for a long time. we br to achieve some really big things. things that the cynics have scoffed at for years, decades

even. today, today we are giving the people of this country their money back. this is their money, after all. >> how big of a deal do you think today is for republicans? >> i think it's gigantic. we think it's a really big deal. we think it's the right thing for the country, it will speed up growth, speed up growth and opportunity ask and lower the tax burden on the american people. >> this bill is deeply unpopular are you are you sure gas going to translate into a win? >> total winner. >> it is about cutting taxes for the american people and this bill does that, i feel comfortable with that. it's not perfect by any stretch of the imagination but it will be a historic day for americans from coast to coast. >> this morning the president tweeted, stocks and the economy have a long way to go after the tax cut bill is totally snoopd and appreciated in scope and size. immediate expensing will have a big impact. biggest tax cuts and reform ever passed. enjoy and create many beautiful

jobs. that's trump talking. independent analysts say the wealthiest americans will benefit the most from this bill. according to the nonpartisan tax policy center, if you're making under $25,000 a year, you get about a $60 tax cut. for middle class americans the average tax cut comes to just under $1,000. if you're one of the top 1%, making over $730,000, you're getting an average of $51,000 back with a lot more at the top. all-in, 65% of the bill's benefits would go to the top 20% of earners in 2018. it's worse when the bill's temporary tax cuts expire. according to vox, by 2027, more than half americans would pay more in taxes. nearly 83% of the bill's benefit would go to the top 1%. for more on the dramatic day in washington, senator michael bennet of colorado. "washington post" columnist katherine rampelle. and republican national committee chair michael steele. thank you very much.

the democrats, what is the feeling on the senate side, senator? are you feeling, my god, the republicans are putting their head into the lion's mouth? why do they want to be hated by 99% of the country to benefit 1%? >> i think you heard paul ryan say he's been waiting for this for a long time. i think we all think he's been waiting from the first time he read "at lag shrugged." >> ideology? >> it's totally ideology. we could have had a bipartisan bill that lowered the corporate rate, maybe to 25%, cleared out loopholes, increased the earned income tax credit or the child tax credit, and spent money on infrastructure. instead we're passing a radical rupp bill that bears no relationship between what their description of it and what the president's skringts of it, and what's actually in the bill. >> you've written on this, tell us about this bill. it's really a shift of wealth to the top as if the health at the top was any needier than anybody. what do you make of the fact

that that seems to be shrouded in the way that trump's people understand this so far? >> yes, it's bizarre in that almost every talking point that republicans have made about this legislation is false is. it's not going to primary benefit the mill class. it's not going to raise taxes on the rich. it's not going to pay for itself. it's not going to super charge growth. and so on. so the question becomes, if in fact this is such a great idea, why not sell it on the merits? why not say, you know what? we think that rich people deserve to have fatter paychecks, deserve to be able to keep more of their investment earnings, their passive income, and just sell it on those measures alone? and instead they're just trying to hoodwink america. i think for that -- i think because americans are following this bill more closely than they might have otherwise, they are learning that a lot of these talking points are false, possibly all of them are false, and that's part of the reason they don't like the legislation. >> the polls show the republican tax bill is extremely unpopular

in the country. the brand-new nbc news/"wall street journal" poll out tonight shows 41% disapprove, only 24%, less than one-quarter, like this bill. a monmouth poll shows an even bigger gap, 47% approve, 26% disapprove. i think that's wrong. i think the other one's wrong, the middle one. those were opposed as well. look at that, disapprove 47%, approve 26%. all three polls, michael, say that your party's tax bill is against their interests. >> yeah, and that's a problem. and i don't know how you go out there the to middle america and make the case -- remember, particularly with the last poll, 55% that includes republicans. that's not just democrats and independents in that number. so clearly there are enough people out there to the senator's point who have been paying attention to this and trying to decide whether or not this does exactly what the leadership says it does, for me. and their conclusion so far is,

it does not. and i think that's going to be a problem when it comes to selling the bill. >> here's a problem i have. i grew up with republican parents, modern republicans, they weren't well off. they didn't benefit from this republican bounty for the rich. why do regular republicans who are not rich, including the rural people who voted for trump, cheering for a tax cut which goes to people that will they'll never meet, maybe see in a movie or hear about on wall street, they'll never meet these people, why do they say, great work, donald trump, keep giving money to the top 1% of 1%, people i will never be invited to their hopes, never meet them on the street because they're not on the street. why did they vote this way? explain. >> i'm not sure i can explain that. i can tell you consistent with your polling, the republicans in colorado, a lot of them hate this bill. and -- >> they're still going to vote for trump. >> maybe not again. because what he's saying is completely conflicts with what he said on the campaign trail. let me give you one example i

bet your mom and dad, it would have driven them crazy. in this bill, the top 572,000 households, people that make more than $1 million, they're getting $37 billion. in this bill. year after year after year. and we're not paying for it, we're borrowing that money. so your parents would look at that and say, wait a minute. >> where's the fiscal responsibility of the republican party? >> right. >> since i was born i heard the republican party looked out for debts, it wasn't crazy in spending the democrats were the ba guys, they didn't care about the deficit. >> i was on the campaign trail for almost 18 months in 2009-10 talking about that very point, finding a lot of people who wanted to come to congress on that very point, to cut the nation's debt. to cut the nation's deficit spending. remember the language. we weren't -- we're going to come to washington, not spend one dollar more than we take in, we're not going to put a further burden on the backs of our kids and grandkids. and yet this is what this bill

does. they had this trigger in here, they're staying in year 2025 when all these great tax cuts that middle class is getting goes away, that that future congress and president is going to -- no we're going to make it permanent. well, that's going to add further money to the nation's debt. >> billy bob thornton is in the white house, bad santa has taken over. >> i was going to say, remember you were asking about don't republicans care about deficit? this goes back over 30 years, the idea of the two santa clauss. democrats were the santa claus for spending. giving out goodies to their constituents through the spending side. and republicans were the santa claus of tax cuts. both parties had their own form of give-aways to their own consit wents. except for one modest difference. democrats' idea of a goody was health care for kids. >> yes. >> they didn't -- it's called c.h.i.p., a program the republicans are trying to kill.

>> if you add up $1.4 trillion, the projected deficit here, that's a huge amount of money if you going to deficit spend that you could treat people for opioids, where we're losing 50,000 americans a year. you could fully train the 1,100 pilots that the air force -- >> how about trains that go over 35 miles an hour. >> how about that. >> that would be a start. blame the engineer but the trains ought to be able to go faster than 35 miles an hour. >> and the roads and bridges that your mom and dad and my parents built for us. >> our pioneer parents. i don't know if i have any. >> not that far back. >> immigrants from ireland somewhere. donald trump ran as a populist, promising to fight for the forgotten man. let's watch. >> we are fighting for every american who believes government should serve the people, not the donors and not the special interests. i want to save the middle class. the middle class, the hedge fund guys didn't build this country, these are guys that shift paper

around and they get lucky. the hedge fund guys are getting away with murder, making a tremendous amount of money, they have to pay taxes. i want to lower the rates for the middle class. i will never stop fighting for you against the washington establishment. i'm an outsider fighting for you. that's what i'm doing. the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer. tax reform will broeprotect low income and middle income households, not the wealthy and well connected. they can call me all they want, it's not going to help. i'm doing the right thing. and it's not good for me, believe me. >> katherine, you write a column, you have to write the truth, how does a guy get away by telling the not-truth? everything he said, i'm going after wall street, everything's about the top, reducing it from 39 to 37, huge amounts of money at the top. bringing the corporate rate down from 35 to 21. basically getting rid of the estate tax altogether. getting rid of the tax that made companies pay at least

something, at least 21%, and now everything he promised he lied about. i shouldn't say lied. he mispromised about. it's going the opposite direction. the people are still cheering him. the people that were promised what he's not doing are cheering that he's not doing it. why are they cheering? >> why are they cheering? i think it's more of a performtive thing, expressive thing. they feel like his demeanor, his affect, is simpatico, right? with them. with his voters. it doesn't really matter what he does, it doesn't matter what his policy actually looks like. it's not only on taxes, if you want to talk about ways in which he has forsaken the forgotten man, he has forgotten the forgotten man. it's on knee-capping the consumer financial protection bureau. it's on rolling back protections for students who have been defrauded on student loans. it's rolling back protections for people who might get black lung, for crying out loud.

he's supposed to be looking out for coal miners. even in that case he's deregulating. so there are so many policy frontiers on which he has let down his public. but you know what these policies are complicated. and beyond that, again, i think that they just feel like he gets them, he speaks for them, they don't really care what he actually does in office, so long as he makes liberals angry. >> he does not only make liberals angry, talking about me here. he also makes your crowd, michael, your crowd, you take this, right? >> yeah. >>why does every damn -- every darn republican in the senate say yes, sir? they have a different value system than trump. >> because they look back at their states and see where the president is polling in their neighborhoods and they've got to go to over the christmas break and next year and campaign. right now despite everything else that we may think and feel about what's good, bad or ugly about this bill, those members know that that is polling 60%.

70%. back in their states. or in their districts it could be higher. so that's a political pressure that's been brought to bear for a lot of these members as well. which makes this much harder for them. if the pressure back at home was a lot less, if the numbers at home reflected what the national number is for trump at 30%, trust me this would not be the bill you would see. >> i don't trust it. let me ask you, it seems -- >> you've got to trust me. >> the bill is to give money to the rich, who will give him back money to run tv, they'll pay for the ads to tell the regular people that he's on their side. in other words the money will come from the people who gave them a big tax cut, the money will be used to bamboozle the regular people. seems like a perfect system that works for trump. >> and it has worked. for some reason, whenever he's out there telling his tales, like he was in missouri the other day, he gets away with it. the rest of us need to be explaining what's actually in this bill. and somebody asked me the other day, how could these guys vote against it? i think michael your

explanation's a very good one. i'm looking forward to going back to counties in colorado where the president won 70%, 80%, and explaining why i voted against. i'd like to say i voted twice against this bill because it is so inconsistent with the fundamental promises that they made during his campaign. >> i hope your lyon like schumer and pelosi get the word out that this is a bank robbery of the average person. nuances are important here. this is the time for populist democrats to make their noise. senator michael bennet, i don't have to teach you guys. sometimes i think i do. michael steele and katherine, beautiful, thank you. what's going to happen when white house attorneys who want the russia investigation wrapped and up quashed meet mueller's prosecutors who look like they've got a year or more so go? mueller's work is nowhere near done, we can tell that, that's going to enrage trump and his allies who have been bamboozled into thinking this is over. the former director of national intelligence says putin is using trump as an intelligence asset,

an asset of the russians. that's ahead. trump pushing back against a report he nearly pulled the nomination of snowstorm justice neil gorsuch because gorsuch criticized the president for attacking federal judges. not the first time we've seen trump test the loyalty of his nominees but it might be one of the most damning. the trump tower tax cut hands democrats a silver plate issue to run on next november. can they do it? can they win, can they capitalize on a bad santa tax cut? how can republicans defend a tax plan that helps the rich while hurting nearly everyone else? the "hardball" roundtable with three big scoops you'll be talking about for a while. ♪ when you book a flight then add a hotel you can save. ♪ three waves later, i think it was the other way around... ♪

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welcome back to "hardball." donald trump's legal team is set to meet with special counsel's investigators later this week to discuss the status of the russia probe. while the president's attorneys have fueled trump's hope that he'll soon be exonerated, "the washington post" reports that there are few indications that that will actually happen. "people familiar with the probe say that such assurances are unlikely and that the meeting could trigger a new, more contentious phase between the special counsel and a frustrated president." "furthermore, members of mueller's team have told others

they expect to be working through much of 2018 at a minimum." that's how i see it. this meeting comes after dozens of conservative lawmakers and tv personalities have escalated their attacks on the mueller probe. new reporting shows their strategy of discrediting the special counsel appears to have the blessing of trump himself. "a white house adviser said the president has enjoyed the attacks on mueller, in recent weeks he has spoken to a number of fox news hosts, republican lawmakers and others who have cast gated mueller's team." i'm joined by coauthor of that report in the "post," carol lennig, joyce transa forge federal prosecutor, malcolm nance is msnbc terrorism and national security analyst. thank you all. carol, thank you for joining us. when this is going to happen? first of all, tell us how you put together this story. a little bit about trade craft. how do we know -- is trump being told, don't worry, be happy, you'll be through this by

christmas, they're folding their tents? are they telling this to keep him calm? do they really believe it? is this strategic? so that the country will feel, especially the trump folks, that, oh, they're just overdoing it, they're on a fishing expedition, how do you see the whole situation here? >> so without revealing too much tradecraft, i'll just say that we've talked to people who have spoken with the president very recently. and he has, in their mind, described himself as very sure that he will be exonerated. as you know from your own coverage and ours, he has said for the last several months there was no collusion, i had no participation with russia, i did no business with russia, i don't know what this probe is about, it's a terrible shadow over my presidency. and indeed, very, very recently within the last few days, people who are with him were surprised that even now, after one of his most senior advisers has pled guilty and is cooperating with

mueller's probe, even now the president has said he has no worries, his lawyers have told him he's in the clear, and he should learn of some confirmation of that soon. we obviously have different reporting that suggests, as is natural with a very large criminal probe, that this is going to go on for a long while. >> let me go to joyce on that. seems to me, i'm not a prosecutor or attorney, but seems to me they've got their star witness, michael flynn, beginning to put him under the microscope of testimony, public testimony. if they're going to do that. in terms of indictments of top people, they've really not gotten near the president yet. i don't know why anyone would honestly believe this thing's coming to a head right now. >> i don't know why anyone would think that either, chris. this investigation looks like it's still fairly early. prosecutors have only just finished their first round of interviews of key white house players. witnesses like hope hicks whose interviews will probably lead to

a lot more questions, a lot more lines of investigation. we've learned this week prosecutors have this treasure trove of documents from gsa, transition team e-mails, we know they have financial records. that's the lengthy core part of any investigation. it takes awhile to follow that paper trail. and then as you say there's the witnesses, either to testify or defendants who will go to trial. a lot more work comes in that stage. and finally, key witnesses at the top of the food chain. people like attorney general jeff sessions and vice president pence yet to be interviewed. the president himself, it's unlikely that this investigation closes without an interview of him. so these same lawyers who have been saying, it will be over by thanksgiving, it will be over by christmas, i think it's equally likely they're wrong when they say it will be over end of the year. this will go for at least an additional year. >> malcolm, seems like we've got a baghdad bob situation, people saying we're winning, it's over,

the fying's over. saddam hussein's not going to fall. why are they saying something that -- churchill said, don't say something that's going to be disproven later or you're going to lose all your credibility. >> the question is what they actually believe. they live in sort of a hermetically sealed bubble. in which they actually believe this information. i mean, the president doesn't consume information that is negative to him. he only consumes information which comes from trusted sources that he believes. and if his lawyers are telling him that this is going to be secured by the end of the year, it's possible he's waiting for the house intelligence committee to do some cursory wrap-up and call it all a victory. i don't think the mueller investigation is going to finish, certainly not within a year. but some of the biggest hits of what could come potentially out of the mueller investigation are going to come in the middle of next year, and it's going to -- if that's going to blind side the president, then he's in very serious trouble.

>> carol, that's a great question. looks to me like if the president truly believes they've exhausted all evidence, that they're basically done, then he gets the word, oh by the way, mueller's on this for another year, he's only begun to fight, is that going to intensify the chance he tries to dump muler? >> there's been a drumbeat of concern, the idea of a saturday night massacre or in this case a christmas eve massacre. there's been some significant uptick in the furor of criticism of mueller's team, more importantly, of the fbi agent that is were involved. the fbi honestly had a very bad week recently, revelations about internal e-mails, affairs, pro-hillary, anti-trump commentary in teches. and you see all of these opinion naters coming out in the conservative world saying that this is just terrible, we're going to have to get rid of this team because this whole process is tainted.

it may be this is just a way to soften the ground for that moment. if mueller doesn't give the president the answer and his legal team the answer he wants, look, we're going to wrap this up, your client has no problem, clean bill of health -- if he doesn't get that answer, we may see a different kind of communication from some of this group, this campaign that is pushing to end this probe. >> the former director of national intelligence, we know him, james clapper, had sharp criticism for the president after trump said vladimir putin thanks him for the u.s. intelligence that diverted a terrorist attack in st. petersburg. here's what clapper had to say of putin's relationship with trump. >> i think this past weekend is illustrative of what a great case officer vladimir putin is. he knows how to handle an asset. and that's what he's doing with the president. i'm saying this figuratively. i think we have to remember,

putin's background, he's a kgb officer. that's what they do. they recruit assets. and i think some of that experience and instincts of putin has come into play here in his managing a pretty important account for him, if i could use that term, with our president. >> joyce, what does that do to a prosecution case, so much like if you can claim everything adds up, all the communications with kushner and the president's son and all his people and flynn and carter page, all of them, all that stuff constitutes a rico charge that what in effect they're doing is operating altogether under the leadership of the president. james clapper is saying he's basically operating like he's been taken in by the brilliant kgb guy, and somehow trump is orchestrating something on behalf of putin. is that criminal? >> you know, this is a question that the mueller team will have

to decide. and they'll decide it based strictly on the evidence. the question will be, was the president a knowing participant in russian efforts? and one suspects that they'll reach a bright line decision on that based on evidence of meetings, knowledge, what they're hearing from witnesses, and they'll either decide, no, he was an unwitting participant in this with no criminal culpability, or perhaps they'll decide that they have to push harder, look further, to see if in fact the president did have knowledge, did willingly participate in some sort of a scheme. >> malcolm, your thoughts about that term asset, one of putin's assets, being trump. >> to be generous to director clapper, i think that what he was saying was just being illustrative from the intelligence community perspective of how a former human intelligence officer like vladimir putin, a former officer of the kgb, then-director of russian intelligence, would see everybody and certainly a

character like donald trump as easily manipulatable entity. and the word that we would use in the intelligence community, when you become a positive force once manipulated, is an asset. i've been saying for almost 17 months now that donald trump was an unwitting asset of russian intelligence, and vladimir putin. but it's quite possible, you could argue that he became a witting asset on the day that he asked russia to hack or release hillary clinton's hacked e-mails and knew that russia was doing efforts in his favor. it's quite possible based on some of the cursory information we've seen that he also knew that his son and others were out looking for russian information. so, you know, you can use it that way. but i think clapper was trying to be coy. i don't think mueller's going to be coy at all. i think he's going to come up with a case whether he was actually a puppet or a puppeteer. >> well said. thank you, carol, great reporting for "the washington post," joyce vance, and malcolm

nance. up next, president trump reportedly talked about pulling neil gorsuch's nomination not supreme court over his concerns that he wouldn't be loyal. trump's pushing back on the news but it does fit into a pattern we've seen from this president, he wanted loyalty from everybody. fbi director comey and his supreme court nominees. this is "hardball," where the action is. some air fresheners are so overwhelming, they can...

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here's what's happening. crews have begun removing mangled train cars off the tracks after monday's amtrak

derailment in washington state. three people were killed. investigators are also waiting to interview the hospitalized engineer and crew members. the train was going 80 miles an hour in a 30-mile-an-hour zone when it crashed on its inaugural trip from seattle to portland. at least a dozen tourists are dead and 18 injured after a tour bus flipped on a mexican highway. americans were on board that bus, carrying cruise ship passengers to the mayan ruins. >> nationalities have not been disclosed yet. the tour bus was carrying 27 passengers when it crashed. back to "hardball." i have no difficulty ruling against or for any party. other than based on what the law and the facts and the particular case require. and i'm heartened by the support i have received from people who

recognize that there's no such thing as a republican judge or a democratic judge. we just have judges. in this country. >> welcome back to "hardball." supreme court justice neil gorsuch asserting his independence from president trump during the confirmation hearing. his confirmation was one of the president's biggest accomplishments, almost a lone accomplishment besides the tax bill. "the washington post" reports the president worried gorsuch would not be loyal and told aides he was tempted to pull gorsuch's nomination, upset by what he viewed as gorsuch's insufficient gratitude for a lifetime appointment to the country's highest court and told republican leaders "he's probably going to end up being a liberal like the rest of them." this after senator richard blumenthal said gorsuch called the president's attack on federal judges "disheartening and demoralizing." today the president tweeted the story is fake news, i never

wavered, i am very proud of him and the job he is doing as a justice of the supreme court. the unnamed sources don't exist." "the washington post" says their account is based on interviews with 11 people familiar with the episode. i'm joined by one of the writers, one of the reporters for that article, ashley parker, who writes for "the washington post." and is an msnbc political analyst. great insight here. and i have so many questions about gorsuch. one is, well, first of all, the thing about trump having second thoughts. was this sort of like popeye in the cartoons, always mumbling and talking out of his brain and things bugging him? or did he really assert that he made a mistake with this guy, in a serious conversation? >> so that's a fair question and a good question. and the way it has told us that the nomination was never in actual jeopardy. but what we understand is that the president did what he often does, or what you say popeye does, which he sort of vents his

frustrations aloud and asks questions and expresses his anger to advisers and he was basically saying he was very frustrated with gorsuch, he believed he was being disloyal, he felt there would be a lot of other judges who would want that position on the supreme court, he's certainly right about that, who would be perhaps more grateful and more loyal. so these were all things he was saying to aides. as with the president, often it was unclear if the nomination was ever in actual jeopardy or if this was a president angry and blowing off steam. >> one question, it may not be in your reporting, i got the sense when gorsuch was going before the senators, going door to door to the senators, making courtesy calls, then testifying, that he came across as a moderate, modest sort of conservative, not some further than scalia type, antonin scalia type. now i think the image is just that he's a very hard-right justice. >> yeah, his tenure is quite young but i think that's a fair assessment for now. that's sort of one of the

central ironies was the president was very worried about him early on when he was going through the process. but if there's been a single knock on him, it's not what the president feared that he would be a liberal like the rest of them, it's that he's actually been quite conservative and maybe almost overly paying deference to the president and the republican senators who pushed him through. >> also "the washington post" reports that a source familiar with the incident largely faults the white house for failing to explain supreme court nominees asserting their independence from the president who appointed them is a natural part of the confirmation process. this isn't the only time the president asserted a right to loyalty from an independent member of his government. former fbi director james comey on that point. >> he asked specifically of loyalty in the contectixt of asg me to stay. >> this is a profound question. does the president know that being the president doesn't mean the acquiring of an asset, that

he doesn't own the united states government, it's a republican form of government, it has branches and checks on power and depositions that are natural -- tensions are natural. sometimes the nominee is different than you thought he was and that's part of the game, they don't have to stay how they looked when you picked them. >> that's right and the president's frustrations seem to be rooted in a little bit of a misunderstanding of how this process works. and how the supreme court works. which is the president gets to choose his nominee, he or she tries to choose someone who's in line with their judicial philosophy. then the justices of course, an independent justice, he or she is beholden not to the president who appointed them but to the law and to the constitution. and that's how it should work. and that's exactly what gorsuch was saying when the president got so frustrated. >> you're right, so much great reporting, arly parker on "the washington post." people vote for trump next time,

they're voting for a very different constitutional order in this country, from a president who doesn't recognize the need to understand limited government and limited powers of the presidency. up next the trump tower tax cuts a christmas president for the very wltdsy, maybe an electoral gift to democrats, perhaps, they have to have a key issue to run on, they've got one in 2018. can they capitalize on this very unfair tax bill? ♪ ♪ ♪ it all starts with a wish. the final days of wish list are here. hurry in and sign and drive off in a new lincoln with zero down and a complementary first months payment. ltry align probiotic.n your digestive system? for a non-stop, sweet treat goodness, hold on to your tiara kind of day.

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this piece of legislation is the single worst piece of legislation i've seen in my time in the senate. it will take a decade for us to undo some of the damage that's been done. >> this is the worst bill to ever come to the floor of the house. it's an all-out looting of america. the wholesale robbery of the middle class. >> let me be clear. this tax bill will be an anchor around the ankles of every republican. if they haven't learned it yet,

they're going to learn it next november. >> welcome back to "hardball." directional republicans are on the verge of passing a major tax overhaul despite polling that shows roughly half the country disapproves. only 10% of the bill's tax cuts would go to the middle class according to the joint committee on taxation, a government committee. the milwaukee journal sentinel warns the bill does little to generate xipt in june know, wisconsin, trump country. one republican voters told the newspaper, we're not going to feel any tax relief, if anything it will get a little worse." the tax bill's also the republican party's only legislative accomplishment in 2017. and they're desperate for something that looks like a win. but will a win on this issue mean losses for republicans in next year's midterm elections? for more i'm joined by the roundtable, anita kumar with me right now, white house correspondent john fearry, gop strategist and cornell belcher, democratic strategist for msnbc. let me go with this pollster,

mr. belcher. i have a hunch. it's not positive tial it, it's i'm looking at things. who's ever voted against a politician for cutting taxes, even if their tax cut is smaller than somebody else's? >> you have a plurality of american voters who think they're going to be worse off because of this tax bill. and that's the real difference. it's not like it's neutral. >> like in 1993, '94, when they voted against clinton. >> when you think you're going to be worse off. when you look at the economy, what most people's grievances, rich aren't paying their fair share, there's a lot of inequality. the polls, they think this increases the inequality, they think most of it's going to the wealthy people, from nbc's polling which by the way most of the fact-finders agree with. >> i'm looking at this. if you're a rich republican, this is great. no more regulation on the environment. just rape the land, strip mine the country, in wyoming they

can't wait to get into those government lands. let's get that land back, bears ears and all that stuff. a huge tax cut on corporate, a huge tax cut on individual, a huge advantage on exclusions for estate taxes, elimination basically of the corporate minimum tax. it's all great. it's all great, and how does the average stiff out there, doesn't get a raise? people are not getting raises in the middle income level. whatever the unions are doing, nobody's getting a raise. >> the republicans and the people at the white house i talk to feel really good about it. >> of course they do. >> they think that americans will col around. john can probably talk more about this. next year when they start to see their paychecks being a little bit bigger, when the economy gets better, they think they have a good leg to stand on, that it's going to sell well. >> john fearry, the defense. >> 80% of the american people are going to get a tax cut, 9% are going to get a tax credit. those 9% live in new york city or san francisco. too bad, they deserve a tax increase.

>> remember horse and rabbit stew? who's getting the horse, who's getting the rabbit? >> the number one keystone of this whole thing is the corporate tax cut. and that is going to grow the economy substantially. much more than 3%. up to 4% -- >> the corporate tax rate, what are they going to do with the money? >> it's going to bring about $3 trillion coming in from overseas, repatriated. the rest is going to make america more competitive. i think the republicans are betting that they're going to be able to hitch their wagon to a growing economy, 3% or 4%, wages are going to go up, and that's going to be really good. democrats are betting this won't happen. i think the republicans are right. we'll see what happens. >> if the money doesn't come back from overseas -- >> it will. >> are you up for resetting this thing? >> it's going to come back. >> the fundamental problem is we've seen this. this is not theory. go to kansas. we know that these things don't pay for themselves. take billionaire miami bloomberg

who said, you know what, in the end what's going to happen, these corporations, sitting on as much cash as they've ever sat on before in history, what they're going to do is they're going to buy stocks and go to dividends. look, if we want to help the middle class, let's help the middle class. >> we'll see what happens. we've already seen what's happened -- >> ronald reagan had to raise taxes because they didn't pay for themselves. >> a new study out by the tax policy center shows people making between $50,000 and $90,000 a year will see $900 in their bank account. the middle class might not notice, in 2009 obama in his economic stimulus package gave married couples $800 and 12% of the voters noticed. yoenth. i don't understand. $1,000 is shoes for every kid or a couple nights out with your wife -- >> i had not heard that statistic and that is unbelievable. >> by that calculation, the less

than $1,000 a year that the average family gets out of this will not look significant politically. >> i think it's going to look significant. but look, the polls show it's not doing well. obviously the republicans have some selling to do. >> maybe they don't like trump. nothing looks good to them. >> i think that's a big part. i think a lot of people don't like trump. i think democrats have really successfully messaged on this. but to anita's point, this is not only going to cut taxes of $900 per person in that range what the obama tax cuts didn't do is rapidly grow the economy. >> but the longest peacetime increase in our economic -- [ cross talk ] >> i have to tell you, i don't think -- >> it's absurd. >> you think the democrats' message machine is really good? >> they are on this one. >> hah! >> that's laughable. >> okay, thank you. >> you know what the reality is, nobody knows what's in this

bill. both sides are being -- saying thins that aren't true. and so no one really knows what to do with it, no one knows what to think. >> thank you. the roundtable, the big thought coming up next, you're first, you're watching "hardball." right. but you want to fix it. right. so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass.

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job on the economy, only 30% of americans think the republicans do a better job. these are close numbers but it's the first time the democrats have been on top, first time the democrats lead in this question since 2013. until... it... wasn't. don't let type 2 diabetes get between you and your heart. because your risk of heart attack or stroke is up to four times greater. but there are steps you can take to lower your cardiovascular risk. talk to your health care provider today about diabetic heart disease. and find out more at heartoftype2.com. your heart and type 2 diabetes. make the connection.

we're back with the "hardball" roundtable. anita, tell me something i don't know. >> i'm going to tell you about an analysis that my colleagues did that showed in two of the biggest races, the alabama senate race, the house race in georgia, the democratic candidate shared 1,300 donors in common. that's way more than the last two mid terps. way more -- >> the public just loves hearing the fact that they're all in bed together. donors on either side. >> it's big-money people, it's out-of-state people. >> nobody played roulette by putting chips all over the place so they can't lose. >> paul ryan, a lot of rumors about paul ryan retiring, he raised $30 million for house republicans, he could raise $10 million more to hit $40 million, if he retires it's really bad for the fund-raisers.

>> is he going to retire? >> i don't think he will. >> why would he want that job? mine's from nbc plus four. on taxes. it's a historic moment when democrats have an advantage on taxes, it's a fundamental pillar of the republican party. hit the panic button when democrats are pulling ahead on the party best dealing with taxes. >> thank you to the panel. anita kumar, john fieri, cornell belcher.

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that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in." >> monumental, brazen theft. >> what did republicans just vote for? >> the single worst piece of legislation i've seen in my time in the senate. >> where all the money is going. >> the most excited group out there are big ceos. >> what it means for the republican party. >> this tax bill will be an anchor around the ankles of every republican. >> then, the bait and switch. >> this is going to cost me a fortune, this thing, believe me. >> the president's big broken promise. >> the rich will not be gaining at all with this plan. >> plus, no end in sight. >> we have confidence that it's going to come to a close in short time. >> reports bob mueller has a lot more to investigate. and more white house nominees go down. >> i don't have that readily at my