to agree on anything major? i have skepticism it's going to happen. >> it's going to be interesting when things intense ifify fwh t first half of the coming year. my prediction is they're going to hang together longer than people expect or anticipate. many thanks. "the rachel maddow show" starts right now with joy reed in for rachel. good evening. >> thank you very much. have a good rest of the night. thank you at home for joining us. rachel has the night off. today we were supposed to get the answer as to which party will control the virginia house of delegates in the new year and in just about the strangest way possible. race that will likely decide control of the chamber currently a tie and going to be decided drawing lots. two names tucked into film cannisters and placed inside what "washington post" described as turquoise pitch frer 1835,

found by chance under long-buried stables in richmond's capitol square. that was uniquely virginia scene we were expecting today. at very last minute the democrat in the race filed court challenge. papers arrived this morning by overnight ups delivery. drawing of film cannisters has been canceled for now while the three judges on the circuit court figure out how to get back from holiday vacations to issue a ruling. ticktock. reconvenes january 10 and don't know which party controls the chamber. for anybody who can't predict, fact remains that democrats erased republican's 32-seat majority in virginia house and literally within one vote of ending republican control first

time in nearly two decades. one heck of a bellwether. but before the democratic sweep and democrat elected in alabama, there was senate district 40 in florida. september. didn't capture a huge amount of attention. even if democrat won, republicans still in charge of everything. but bellwether. republican-held seat not competitive in years but district had gone for hillary clinton in presidential election by more than 15 points. if they could flip that seat, maybe others like virginia and others in districts that went for clinton and in 2018. democrat who won is annette taddeo. important for a number of reasons. democrats are hoping her win is

predictive for 2018 and democrats can learn from victories like hers to flip more seats. talking about races to watch in 2018 and what democrats learned in 2017 in a moment. but annette taddeo is also important because of the last race she ran. before first latina in -- most famous for downballot democratic victim of the russian attack on u.s. elections. florida's 26th congressional district, southwest miami-dade and florida keys. fight to see who would take on incumbent in the district. joe garcia used to hold the seat. other was annette tad aio. democratic committee had taken

sides. primary fight that makes internal primary fights worse. drives rift between house dems. always going to be tough. in august got much, much worse. a slew of hacked documents relating to the race were posted online. strategy memos, opposition research e-mails. 76-page dossier of dirt one of the candidates had compiled about the other. and all the dirt the democratic party had dug up on their own candidates to know their weaknesses. apparently included one of the democrats caught on cspan feed, picking his ear wax and appearing to eat it. disgusting. but supposed to be behind-the-scenes research and magically appears online. imagine how nasty it became then. accusations and counteraccusations flew. when garcia won, republicans

used hacked documents against him. >> a crime committed. our trust violated. joe garcia's top aide convicted. joe garcia claimed he knew nothing, court documents suggest otherwise. even those backing his campaign call garcia a flashback to corrupt politicians of the past. we can't let joe garcia run his scheme on us again. >> did you see the source sited in the add? democratic congressional campaign committee internal document. that was run by a superpac tied to house speaker paul ryan. democrat joe garcia didn't win. embattled republican did. we all know democratic party was hacked as part of russian attempt to influence our elections and we know that material was used against the clinton campaign to try to help

elect donald trump. what got far less attention is how it was deployed down ballot. targeted about a dozen house races in the country. leaked hacked documents from the dccc, which shares office with the dnc in washington. earlier this year the "wall street journal" laid out how guce fir 2.0 passed along massive documents to florida gop operative who passed them to florida journalists. when journal contacted him he said he didn't care if russians were behind the hack because matched his agenda. if your interests align, never shut any doors in politics.

all of this going on last year, nancy pelosi wrote a letter to paul ryan asking republicans not to use materials hacked by russians in their campaigns. chairman of the dccc wrote to republican counterpart quote, if this action continues nrcc will be complicit in aiding russian government in its effort to influence american elections. republicans never responded. there are obviously a lot of questions about how much the trump campaign knew about and whether they were complicit in the russian attack on our election. what about rest of the republican organization? bob mueller's probe moved beyond the transition and campaign and into the republican party. mueller's prosecutors have been questioning staffers about the party digital operation that worked with the trump campaign

to target voters in swing states. seeking to determine if the joint effort was related to activities of russian trolls and bots aimed at influencing the american election. what are we to make of the fact that investigation appears to be expanding. what does it mean it's expanding in this particular direction? joining us, nat ashia bert ron, been covering this in depth and in particular russian intersected with the trump data operations. you wrote about this in connection with fact that two separate operations. one looking at data operation by jared kushner maybe intersecting with the russians. but probe about whether rnc down

ballot also intersected. >> hired three data firms to help the trump campaign essentially collect voter information from various states. question they're asking is whether or not the russians and trump campaign and in turn the rnc coordinated to help each other with various aspects of the data collection. question now is did the russians take the voter information they hacked from the state election systems and feed it to the trump campaign and in return did the trump campaign help them target the facebook ads we saw in the election? >> chicken or egg. russians wouldn't know which races to target but would have needed american help. >> that's the speculation of analysts. difficult for russians to have this granular knowledge of american politics and allow them

to target these districts particularly vulnerable. >> this is a little bit of a meta question. seen republicans be really aggressive about the mueller investigation when it comes to donald trump. is there any reporting you can relate that suggests that perhaps aggressiveness of devin nunes, maybe some of that has to do with the probe going in the direction of the rnc? >> it's definitely possible. haven't seen any reporting to that effect yet, but would surprise me if mueller weren't asking rnc staffers about what they knew about the extent they were utilizing this data stolen by the hackers. especially guccifer. sowed doubt about candidacy. we don't have legitimate reporting to suggest mueller is asking about the down ballot

aspects but it would be surprising if it were not part of the questioning. >> how extensive was the interference down ballot? >> pretty extensive. released them to bloggers across the different states and essentially trying to sow division -- russian hacker linked to intelligence. and used by republican national congressional committee, house republican arm of the rnc, used in the ads and ultimately weaponized. many of the congressional candidates used ads against the democratic opponents. whether or not it had dramatic effect on the outcome of the races, whether or not it's true, we don't know, but fact is republicans took this information and used it. and that is problematic. >> and heard paul ryan, talking about the fact he had a lot to

do with directing overall campaign for republicans and he's closely connected to reince priebus and sean spicer, wisconsin mates from way back. any reporting that you can bring that paul ryan may be asked questions about his involvement and whether guccifer 2.0 intersected with him? >> he did oversee entire operation. as you mentioned, he never responded to the letter from democrats asking why the republicans are using all this stolen information. that's a question mueller will want to ask him, why he didn't put a stop it. spokesperson said just because he didn't answer this letter doesn't mean he's for russian interference or republicans using this hacked material. but you have to question why he hasn't come out more strongly about this conduct. >> was any of this material

collected used against republicans? >> no. rnc itself was hacked and none of the information from the rnc was released. >> very interesting. you're breaking a lot, you should follow her on twitter. much more to come tonight. what appears to be a big change in president's strategy toward one of his earliest advisers. and belated christmas present for rachel, all coming up. stay with us.

special counsel robert mueller has brought indictments against four people. two pleaded not guilty. paul manafort and his long-time

business associate rick gates. two others pleaded guilty, george papadopoulos, who held foreign policy adviser for trump campaign and trump campaign said over and over is glorified coffee boy. other guy pleaded guilty is former national security adviser michael flynn. pleaded guilty to single count of lying to fbi about his contact with the russian ambassador. he's agreed to cooperate and tell investigators when he knows. yesterday his brother tweeted to the president about the case. about time you pardoned general flynn, taken biggest fall for all of you given illegitimacy of this confessed crime in the wake of all this corruption. before we had a special counsel, trump said flynn should ask for immunity and praised him as good

guy who got a raw deal. but now he's pleaded guilty and appears to be cooperating with mueller, trump changed his tune. lawyers of the president are planning what amounts as smear campaign against general flynn. legal team plans to cast him as liar. seeking to protect himself if he accuses president or senior aides of wrongdoing. flynn is a liar one insider told the "post." expressed confidence that flynn doesn't have evidence to implicate the president or white house team but not taking chances. joining us joyce vance, former u.s. attorney in alabama. thanks for being here. start with the strategery of this. idea of turning on flynn when trump team doesn't know what he's told mueller, is that wise legal strategy? >> seems really poor joy.

for one thing, certainly something that mueller's team was fully prepared for. the strategy that defense uses against every cooperator in virtually every case. and like you say, here it's dangerous. don't know what flynn would ultimately testify to or cooperate on. if for instance he's talking about conversations backed up by pieces of paper documenting them and president's team has tried to paint him as liar, will boomerang on them heavily and reflect poorly on the president. >> if he's a liar, begs the question why he was hired. you don't have to answer that question. legal strategy. but go back to how donald trump used to act toward michael flynn. supposedly the conversations with james comey had to do with pledging loyalty to president himself but also give flynn a break. can't you see your way to letting him go, good guy.

tweets, i had to fire general flynn because he lied to vice president and fbi. it's a shame. another tweet. general flynn lied to fbi and life is destroyed while crooked hillary clinton on that now famous fbi holiday quote integration -- blah blah blah. they used to have idea of pulling flynn in. any legal reason why the defense that used to be michael flynn did nothing wrong switches to michael flynn is a liar? >> it's really not a good legal defense. it's a horrible idea for the president to have this revealing ongoing thought process out in the public on his twitter account. strategically, what you want to do if you're the defense here, gearing up either for criminal prosecution for impeachment

proceedings, just sit tight and say nothing. you don't know exactly what general flynn is coming at you with. and there's an interesting detail in the flynn plea agreement, which he only receives immunity for this very limited charge that he has pleaded guilty to. the false statements made to the fbi. and it leaves open this entire world of conduct that could potentially be topic of a follow on superseding indictment that flynn could cooperate on. very unpredictable. when you look at that agreement, looks like mueller's team crafted it really carefully to keep their ultimate goals with flynn opaque. so the strategy looks poor from the outside. >> you wrote an article -- not you. carol lin ig. white house advisers noetsed that flynn did not plead guilty to being a co-conspirator in any

criminal extreme. which they argue shows he's note able to provide evidence of larger conspiracy. so how much of a crime is it? are you suggesting that fact they didn't charge flynn with criminal conspiracy just means didn't charge that now? they could charge him later? >> exactly right. often if you have a defendant who is going to plead guilty and cooperate, charge him and let him plead to lesser crime, limited exposure for jail time or one you select for strategic advantage it gives you as prosecutors, does not mean they might not possess evidence that flynn was part of larger criminal conspiracy. you have to remember that flynn has received what looks like a good plea deal. you don't get that for nothing.

he needs to have information incull ptory, and -- >> two of them have the surname trump. this is donald trump on december 15th, talking about other potential exit strategies for himself, pardoning michael flynn. >> would you consider a pardon for michael flynn? >> i don't want to talk about that yet. see what happens. i can say this, when you look at what's gone on with the fbi and justice department, people are very, very angry. >> what would be the legal ramifications if donald trump switched back to the pro-flynn strategy and pardoned him, did what his brother is asking? >> i think there's consensus that flynn pardon would create constitutional crisis that everyone bandies about, the real red line that can't be crossed

here. here's the reason why. pardoning general flynn is different from pardoning joe arpaio, he was in criminal case that didn't involve the president. here you have president pardoning somebody who could arguably provide evidence against the president, his family members and other close associates. that would have to be politically untenable. idea that president would insulate himself from liability by issuing a pardon would have to create real political risk. beyond that, not a good legal strategy. can pardon for federal crimes but not for state crimes. looks pretty clearly we have at least one attorney general in the state of new york who might be prepared to bring charges behind the federal crimes if that was necessary. certainly in manafort indictment we see some indication there's a carveout of some state-type

crimes. i don't think the pardon strategy is politically feasible and legally i don't think it's successful either. >> thanks for being here. one thing the show has been watching for in the trump/russia investigation is how staffers or former staffers will pay for lawyers. were close to launching a legal defense fund. last week the lawyer told us he understands that such a fund will be operational soon. so far no help paying legal fees for anyone not named donald trump jr. or sr. when help does arrive said it won't be for anyone under indictment or a target of the investigation. left indicted deputy rick gates singing for his legal supper. as we saw in this individuvideo

home confinement played at fundraiser for him. he had to explain to a judge why this doesn't violate the gag order on his case. yet to see if judge buys his argument. and general flynn left to his own devices. white house decided not only to leave him out on limb for legal fees but attack his credibility. could see this coming when general flynn's family set up legal defense fund just for him in september. asked flynn's attorney how the fundraising is going. answer came back, decline to comment. could mean just about anything. we'll be right back. en you tota. you two had been through everything together. two boyfriends, three jobs... you're like nothing can replace brad. then liberty mutual calls... and you break into your happy dance.

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today brought still more evidence of a coming blue wave in 2018 with another poll showing democrats with a commanding lead in the runup to next year's midterm elections. new ugov poll shows democrats with eight-point lead over republicans. wide leads in northeast, midwest and west, republicans clinging to narrow lead in the south. democrats win big among all income groups, especially bottom and top of the scale. all age groups with exception of those over 65. republicans seven point over white voters and democrats win

by huge amounts. eight-point deficit would normally set off alarm bells, today's poll is less terrible than the norm. average of recent polls show the democratic lead hovering around 13 points, even larger margin than in 2006 when democrats took control of the house and senate. such a lead if carried into november of 2018 almost certainly result in democrats taking back the house. and still 11 months away from the midterms and political landscape could change, history shows even at this very early stage, generic congressional ballot is remarkably stable and changes little in same polls taken in final months before the midterms. will the blue wave we see building crash on republicans in november or reasons for caution?

joining from super wall with five key things to watch in 2018, msnbc's steve karn acy. take it away. >> talk about waves and what we can expect in 2018 based on 2017. story right now, conditions you would normally look for historically for a wave to be in place for out of power party are for now taking shape for democrats. take you through some of the keys. generic ballot, usually a good predictor. see where it lands next fall. warning sign. and nature of midterm elections, historically favor the party not in power. minuses are the losses, house seats lost by the white house, by the president's party in past midterm elections. it's basically the rule that white house party loses seats, question is how many. only two exceptions, really

extenuating circumstances. '98, picked up five seats in second midterm, impeachment was going on. 2002, bush's republicans picked up seats, year after 9/11 with the country still in shock. extraordinary circumstances. otherwise the rule is out of power party tends to pick up seats. democrats would need 24 to get the house next year. something else to keep an eye on, president's approval rating. when you see big losses, not normal but big, corresponds with a president who is not doing well in the polls. 2010, barack obama at 45% on election day approval. republicans took back the house, 63-seat gain, one of the biggest in generations. bush in '06, iraq war, after katrina, democrats got the house. clinton, 46%, republicans still took the house. first time in 40 years, even

reagan in '82. probably would have been worse, didn't have a lot to start with in '82. trump, 38% is consistent with the low end of the danger zone range that past presidents have been in. another warning sign. then this, results we've seen. special elections in 2017. look here, four house races throughout the year. this is how trump did in those districts in 2016. 20 point improvement for democrats. republicans won it but movement in the democrats' direction. saw in montana, south carolina, obviously end of the year in alabama. one exception is georgia but seeing a broad trend, movement toward democrats. would expect that with a wave. we say that the conditions we normally look for are there. cautionary note, there is the question of can things change. if they're going to change, this is one oddity of the trump

presidency, the public's assessment of the economy is pretty good right now. been improving. 63% say excellent or good. normally that type of assessment, approval rating is higher than trump's is. can assessment or approval rating rise if public's view of the economy stays strong or gets stronger? one note of caution. also this. represent september, october of 2016, lot of the traditional metrics said donald trump wasn't going to win that election and he did. bigger picture question about in the era of trump are the rules of politics just different in a way that traditional metrics and measures don't mean what they have in the past? impossible to say right now. you have to go through the election to find out. but worth mentioning. >> really quickly. going through the elections,

excellent job as usual by the way. 1998, impeachment gave the democrats sense of intensity. 2006, bush reelected but still intensity. is this more like 2010? new president, incredibly intense opposition, democrats losing seats to the antipathy to obama. are you seeing in the zeitgeist that 2010 style attitude toward trump similar to the republican attitude towards obama? >> nothing fires up one party's base like the other party having power. democrats in 2009, not just barack obama in office but big majorities in house and senate. 60 votes for a time. siege mentality among republicans. better get acts together and get a check here. democrats are feeling that way now. but beyond the base, seen

powerful message in midterm politics is really not ideological. in the past it's just simple message of do you want a check? do you think one party should have a check on the other so nobody has full control? in the past, it's been the sentiment. >> appreciate it. just what are democrats doing to boost their chances next year? that's next. coming up end of the show, belated christmas present for rachel that we're sure she'll share with all of you.

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♪ there are not very many republican women in charge in congress right now. kathy mcmorris rogers is fourth highest ranked in house of republicans. after her, only three female committee chairs in the body. as of today, one is on the way out the door. congresswoman diane black of tennessee is chair of the house budget committee, speaker paul ryan's former gig. had much success in that role professionally and personally. net worth ballooned considerably over the years. just over $75 million, making her one of the richest members of congress, someone who could very well benefit from the new republican tax bill. that she happened to help steer

to the president's desk. now that's over with, congressman black is ready to head back to tennessee to run for governor. "examiner" put it, credited the passing of the tax bill with allowing her to achieve her political goals and move on to next step in her career. and also possible recognizes might not always get to be powerful chair. if republicans concede to democrats in 2018, could go to ranking member. if one way to interpret the departure, she feels she's done it all, or another way, seen writing on the wall for next year. change of career plans comes a few weeks after alabama voted to send a democrat to represent them in the senate. today the democratic pac patted themselves on the back for

helping doug jones get the win. still a matter of discussion. on top of the millions of dollars of outsider money, one of the key things had a helped doug jones win was on the ground efforts by local activists to get them to the polls. higher than average voter turnout, black turnout in particular. winning black women. 2018, can democrats replicate the effect? latch on to public's discontent with the republican party and turn that in wins? joining me, senior adviser to moveon.org. your outfit is already up, internet ads targeting

republicans on the tax bill. is the tax bill to republicans writ large, mean in nicest way, that disgust with roy moore was to doug jones in alabama? powerful enough to carry democrats over the top? >> i think that's one way that democrats can own the message next year. just think about it. passed unpopular president, unpopular republican congress passed a deeply unpopular bill. and i think democrats have the integrity and messaging here and need to take that forward. it's not just that, a couple of things need to play into this as well. democrats need to continue and oppose the racist, reckless agenda that trump holds. majority of americans have already smacked that down. did that before he took office. need to continue. not be intimidated, continue to fight. use health care fight as example and repeat, repeat. number one.

number two, they need to have compelling argument, compelling vision. and i think that looks like making sure they're talking about expanding medicare, medicaid, social security, civil rights, raising minimum wage, protecting immigrants. really important things that democrats need to do next year. last thing, as you were talking about, black women delivered two important races for democrats in 2017, virginia and alabama. red state we had no business playing in, hadn't had democrat in that state in 25 years. we have to lean in to the base. only way we're going to win is if the base comes out. we have to get that base out. black community, latino community, also millennials. democrats need to do all those things and not chase, joy, voters who are not going to vote for us. >> reverse order. african-americans make up 27% of

the population in alabama, one of the highest percentage of any state. mississippi is even higher. mississippi is 37% african-american. are these states per howard dean's 50 state strategy, states that democrats should go back to. senate race in mississippi for instance? >> democrats can't leave anything on the table. what happened in alabama is perfect example, especially with steve bannon leading the charge. white supremist who now seems to be chief strategist on these races. can't leave anything on the table. going to have more extremist candidates we haven't seen in a long time. that's tennessee, mississippi, other states not as ruby red as alabama. look at tennessee. can't leave anything on the table. we have to have 50-state strategy to take back the house next year. and now because of alabama once

again, u.s. senate is in play. >> and on the second piece, mentioned medicare, medicaid, daca. i know that democrats care about doing something on infrastructure, big debate today is whether or not do those things with republicans, mitchell mcconnell and donald trump, and combine with them to get wins on those things as election strategy. your thoughts? >> infrastructure -- when mitchell mcconnell and donald trump talk about bipartisanship, it's hysterical. mitch mcconnell used special procedures to make sure that democrats were not part of gop tax plan and also with the repeal of obamacare used reconciliation because they didn't want democrats involved. to talk about partisanship is crazy. also the same person who held as

we know the supreme court seat for over a year. and also during the obama years said the one thing i want to make sure is obama is a one-term president. they haven't shown anything that leads to bipartisanship and donald trump attacks democrats whenever he has a chance. i don't see that happening. and like i said, number one thing that democrats need to continue to do is resist reckless and racist agenda of donald trump. that is not working with him on anything. there is nothing positive or good that donald trump is going to put forward. >> thank you very much. appreciate your time. happy new year. >> happy new year. up ahead, our gift to rachel. stay with us.

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okay. sometimes it can be hard telling the real deal from a knockoff. >> how are you? how are you? >> great, great honor. we were on our way. he wanted a couple of minutes. >> i like your tie. >> you like my tie? >> great honor. >> okay. that was not the real gorbachev. he showed up at trump tower in december of 1988 and pranked manhattan real estate developer donald trump. in 2008, sarah palin's turn. the governor of alaska. running for vice president on john mccain's ticket and she got a call from someone she thought was the then french president

sarkozy saying she would be a good president. >> i see you as a president one day, too. >> maybe in eight years. >> no. maybe not. tons out that was not the french president but rath ear well-known comedy duo out of montreal. in 2011 wisconsin governor scott walker thought he got a call from david koch for an update on the union battles in the state. >> i'll tell you what, scott. once you crush these bastards, i'll fly you out to cali and really show you a good time. >> all right. that would be outstanding. >> nope. governor walker never went there for a good time because david koch had not called. it was a prank from a new york blogger. this time u.n. ambassador nikki haley reportedly got a call from a person she thought was the prime minister of poland to talk about elections and the mystery nation of banomo. >> you know binomo? >> yes, yes.

>> ambassador she knows it. everyone knows binomo but there is no island. it doesn't exist. it is not real. but we won't let that stop us from rolling the tape. >> you know binomo? >> yes, yes. >> they declared independence. >> right. >> they had elections and we suppose russian had its intervention'y e, of course they d. absolutely. >> and now this land makes the situation in the south china sea even more tense. >> and we're aware of that. we've been watching that very closely and i think we'll continue to watch that as we deal with tishss that keep coming up about the south china sea. >> yes. that's correct. that's correct. what should be done because of this binomo? >> let me find out exactly what our stance is on that and what if anything the u.s. is doing or thinks should be done and i'll report back to you on that, as

well. >> so whatever or wherever this binomo is, nikki hay sli totally on the case. for the record, she really is the u.n. ambassador. binomo is not real. nikki haley not confirmed the call and not independently verified it was her on the phone but local south carolina press where she was governor is reporting that someone who sure sounds like nikki haley spent 22 minutes chatting with the fake polish prime minister. in addition to discussing the fake island of binomo, reportedly thanked the prime minister for obstaining from the u.n. vote and talking about russian aggression and did not leave the russians happy. like i said, sometimes it's hard to tell the real deal from a knockoff. >> you know binomo? >> yes, yes. ♪

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tripadvisor. the latest reviews. the lowest prices. okay. you know when you have a friend who's super hard to buy a holiday gift for? they have specific tastes and you can't ask them what they want and then the perfect gift is kind of reveals itself to you, usually online. that just happened to me with the host of this show, rachel maddow. >> my dear, dear bad lip reading, i have loved you for so long. i love you bad lip reading. i love you. i love you. thank you. god bless you bad lip reading. you are a national treasure. >> yes. rachel likes bad lip reading.

i mean, she really, really, really likes bad lip reading and like holiday matching, the holiday folks put out a video this afternoon in time to gift to my dear friend and yours on her day off. here you go, rachel. this one is for you. >> so christmas time is here again. shove it up your vegan face. you'll do a lot more stuff in the new year unless you're dead. people love different foods. organic chicken is a snooze. i want more grease and i want more chocolate cake. >> i really feel all the magic of christmas spirit. fly. i like a bunch of christmas flowers. >> i've been eating jellybeans for hours. i just got a very adorable present. a trump robot clearly sent from heaven. >> i'm not the real donald trump. but i can scare you just as much.

>> christmas is here. play in the snow. grab a friend's hand and don't let go. i'm the most big league guy i know. christmas is here. >> i will live in silence. >> i'm the best part of the year but christmas is here. >> he'll freeze the diamond. >> he's the best part of the year. christmas isn't fun. at least when you're not a real human. oh, why can i not know love? why, creator, do not join us? j y? one time i just want to feel the wind on my face. >> huh? can a robot be unhappy? the guy is suffering. he might die. have a look at the electrical feed. it's probably wrong. look into it for me and my little guy. >> he deserves more and means an