talk to a live audience in philadelphia discussing the issue of race in the time of trump. that's tuesday night at 9:00 p.m. eastern. my thanks to today's panel. that does it for our hour. i'm nicolle wallace. "mtp daily" with chuck todd starts right now. if it's monday, it's memorial day midterm madness. good evening i'm chuck todd here in washington. welcome to a very special "mtp daily." all this hour we will dive into the political war for control of congress, which is quickly turned into a referendum on the president as the russia investigation hangs over all of it. democrats want to run on president trump's corruption, and republicans are baiting them to go nuclear. which means we begin tonight with the politics of

impeachment. believe it or not, it's becoming increasingly clear that the gop is hoping to save the house under president trump by dragging democrats into a fight over whether ousting president trump is the right call. and this strategy appears to have been hatched essentially by the president himself, who has rallied his supporters by warning that a congress controlled by democrats would sound something like this. >> we will impeach him. we will impeach. we will impeach him. we will impeach. this is what we are going to have. this is what we are going to have to fight against. we will impeach him. we will impeach him. we have got to win the house. >> and after he made those comments, his allies made these comments. >> is this election in 2018 going to be a referendum on trump? >> we go to the american people and say the following real quick. do you want to vote for impeachment? do you want to impeach a

president. do you want to have nancy pelosi running the house of representatives? forget it. >> if nancy wants to sit back, obstruct everything with the hopes of winning the majority where she says she would become officer and then just impeach the president. >> they have a bunch of resist democrats who want to obstruct, who are screaming impeachment, who have an agenda of negativity. >> while republican leaders are almost daring democrats to make the mid terms about impeachment democratic lead remembers telling their ranks don't take the bait on impeachment quite literally. adam schiff, the top democrat on the husband's russia investigation recently said democrats don't take the bait on impeepment. unquote. and nancy pelosi said i think it is a gift for republicans to talk about impeachment but it's hard to see how the democrats avoid the issue when they base wants to impeach the president. most of the country does not at least not yet anyway. they have come up with a

compromised message. don't run on the president's potential impeachment. run on president trump's drain the swamp corruption. >> instead of delivering on his promise to drain the swamp, president trump has become the swamp. >> president trump has embraced the most egregious establishment republican norms and appointed the most conflict of interest ridden cabinet in my lifetime. the swamp has never been more foul or more fete i had than under this president. >> so let's dive in with our super sized all star panel who will be with us for the hour. we have two journalists and two partisans. former jeb bush adviser michael steele. ly ann call well, cornell belcher and carry dan. welcome all. all right, leann your beat is congress. we hear president trump and his allies claiming there is a

clamoring for impeachment. beyond green and maxine waters who talks about it? >> not a lot of people talk about impeachment on the hill. more people signed onto the impeachment petition or resolution in the house but no one talks about it. what i have heard for months that republican staffers were saying that their medicals were taking to the president and telling him, look, you cannot attack republicans. remember months ago where he was an equal tune attacker. they said if you attack republicans democrats are going to come in and they are going to impeach you. you need to get on board here. they have been pushing that line to the president and he obviously used it on the campaign trail and can taken that message to heart. >> michael steele, this is a way to save the house for the republicans. is it a smart way? >> absolutely. this is one of the rare times where smart politics collides with reality. if republica

if democrats win, they will by the beginning of 2019 begin articles of impeachment. they can't resist their base. >> do you think the evidence will make them feel they can do it. >> i don't think the evidence matters. i think it is hatred towards donald trump and all the things that come up. i remember when boehner was trying to avoid setting up a benghazi investigation. once the media and the members ginned up about it how do you go to a town hall and explain well it's not that bad. >> cornell sighed. >> that's not how it works. i'm sorry, but it's absurd. if there is evidence to impeach, impeachment proceedings they will begin impeachment proceedings. what is more telling is republicans now need a process argument to rest their hats on. what happened to the conversation about tax cuts. oh, they are under water.

what happened to conversations about health care. people's premiums are going up. they have lost ground on that. now they want to take a process argument into the midterm elections. if you are arguing about process, i don't care if you are republican or democrat, if you are argue being process you are losing your at. >> carry, i thought bernie sanders with me on sunday, two sundays ago, had an interesting way of not talking about impeach men. listen to his answer. >> i am a member of the united states senate. if trump is impeached, i will have to be making a decision, voting on that. you can't jump the gun and determine that somebody should be impeached when you are going to be voting on the impeachment issue. i think it's too early to talk about impeach men. >> now, this is an easier deflection for a senator than somebody running for the house. which i oh, i might be a juror. >> the way that bernie sanders is saying it is we have to decide it based on the facts.

i think that the reason trump and the republicans are doing this is about mobilizing their voters. if you look at special election turnout or turnout in the primaries so far, you made me nervous about the number of republican voters who have shown up for the primaries in comparison to the democrats because there is so much democratic energy. what we have seen, too, is the trump base isn't always transferable. when donald trump says vote for saccone or luther strange, that hasn't worked out. but if he says go vote for this connection because if not you are voting against me. that's a way to make sure his base goes to the polls even if he is not on the ballot. >> i'm ole enough to remember bob bahr, a georgia congressman. he was the only guy talking impeachment for about 18 months. and then everybody was talking about impeach men in the house republicans. one person over time can start a drum beat. >> right. and i think that they are -- again it's not just one person this time.

it's the fact that if you look at everything the base of the tempt party thinks and feels and wants, they are not running to elect more house democrats because they believe in the health care policy or because they believe in their tax poll see. they are running to stop trump and the evil he represents to them. >> let's go to this decision, then, leann and cornell, i want to get into this a little bit, which is democrats are trying to find a way to essentially i think assuage the base here a little bit on this. all right, let's run on reform. >> yeah. they -- i mean democratic operatives say look we have found that voters, they are sick of the chaos, and so we need to have a message. we need to talk about -- we are going to fight but we are not necessarily going to fight trump. we are going the fight for you. we are going to fight for the working people. when it comes down to it, the talk on the hill, even aides as far as impeachment are saying, they are like, look, it is premature. we haven't even had like negotiations or talks about what is going to happen next year. i don't necessarily believe that. but they are saying let's quiet

down here, let's let the elections play out and see what happens and see where the investigation plays out as well. >> i might know a little something about democratic primary voters, maybe something going back from 2008. the democratic primary voters aren't republican primary voters, right? there is not this purity test that democrats constantly punish democrat candidates for. if that were true a lot of our incumbents would be in trouble. you don't see democrats being challenged in primaries and taken out the way the republicans are being challenged and being taken out in primaries. >> we are starting to see it right now. but you see it in open seats before incumbent. >> it is not close to what we've seen on the republican side. democrat primary voters are interesting a lot of things. impeachment is certainly one of them. but i think when you are talking about putting a check on the president that's not just democratic voters. nationally right now a check on the president is a good thing the run on.

>> the single best thing to run on if you are the out party. do you want a check on the president? you can like him and still say yes i want a check on the president. >> this reminds me of the recall election of scott walker in 2012. there was a effort that he was a polarizing governor, both sides were really invested. overall voters said it seems like it's too much, like overreach, like a change in the process and i'm not comfortable with. that even though i don't like him. >> scott walker wasn't accused of committing a crime. >> right. >> that would be the big difference here. that was an ideological dispute. >> right. i don't know that republican primary voters and voters overall aren't convinced that the president committed a crime here. >> true. >> democratic primary voters under president obama are different than those under trump. this is welcome to thunder dome time. if they want red meat and you are offering mint tea it is not

going to go over well. >> the idea that democrats are going to run onna impeach men would be gift to you. but the truth of the matter is when you lock at how upset americans are about health care and what you have all done on health care a democrat would be crazy not to run on that. suburban women are doing economically very well right now. when you look at the electorate that's in the most angst it is the fact that they are actually doing better. >> is it your fear in a democrats not going to be talking the message that would be most effective, essentially health care and taxes? >> here is my fear going back to 2006 when i was working for governor dean. here is our problem. democrats need to give voters something to vote for. because our favorable/unfavorable is not what it was going into 2006 and that wave election. >> an important point. guys you are sticking with me the whole howl. we will have a lot more ahead on

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welcome back. with less than six months to go until election day senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is warning that the upper chamber is absolutely in play in the mid terms despite a challenging map for the democrats. while democrats have historical trend on their side to win back the house the race appears to have tightened nationally since the start of this race. republicans had a 13 point lead on the generic ballot compared to just 3 points these days and they are not out of the woods with primaries just yesterday. so many democrats are running in districts that the state's top two primary system means democrats could look themselves out of a general election in two of those districts.

in pennsylvania congressman connor lamb won a district president trump carried by 20 points. let's dive into where the battle for congress stands. i want to start carry with the senate. we have had two major primaries of the red state democratic senate targets it seems to me n indiana and west virginia. i think if you are the republicans you feel as if both went as needed i think is the way i would put it. in west virginia you might want something better but as needed. >> exactly they dodged a huge bullet with blankenship not winning the primary. the president coming in at the last-minute to endorse against him. how effective was that? blankenship not the nominee of the party. they got a candidate who can run as an outsider and how ds not have congressman as a first name. he will have the benefit of the businessman trumpiness without

as much of the other trumpiness that the other candidate embraced. >> there is a problem in mississippi. >> we can talk about that. i look forward to the mississippi runoff in thanksgiving determining control of the united states senate. but if i -- it is a jobe. but cornell, mitch mcconnell put out his senate map. what is interesting were the states that prrnt it in. he said the ballots is arizona, nevada, tennessee, three republican held seats. and then he put the top six targets that they had. the most surprising omission was wisconsin on his part. and it was -- you know, i have heard they are not pleased with their candidates there in that sense. but that's a map that i see why mcconnell says look the senate is more competitive than maybe the map shows shows. >> it is a tough map for

democrats. when you lock at nevada -- we saw this in 2006 and 2008 where we were able to put western states into play. there are a lot of demographic shifts out there out west. it's problematic for republicans when they can't compete strongly for latino voters. when you are talking about nevada and arizona it's going to be tougher and tougher for them to win those states. >> the wild card seems to be the mississippi race for the ballot for the senate. >> mcconnell, his job as the senate republican leader, senate majority leader is to bring money and attention to senate republican races to make sure they don't have an unfortunate accident. anyone who looks at this fairly says the house is where the action is at, the place where you can win or lose and where you wine up give democrats gavels. >> with all these open seats nothing is mathematically impossible but they would be defying history.

forget trump being in the white house, just the number of open seats is historical. >> they are running as if every one of their members is ten points behind because that's the reality now. as the generic gets better and we see democratic primaries going well for house republicans. last week four seats moved towards us. it's getting better. president trump's approval rating is not great, but not that much different than it was in 2016 and when we won a solid majority. so we are going to keep fighting this but i think it's clear that the house is where the action is at. >> leeann, put pour some -- not cold water but luke warm water on michael there. you talk about the generic battle down to three. the point in may of 2010, democrats were ahead on the generic ballot. thousand, by .6%. republicans ended up winning the final number by seven, and as we know an absurd number of seats, 63 i believe was the number.

grain of salt? >> drain of salt. but house democrats are feeling confident but they are not measuring the drapes yet. over in the senate one thing -- democrats got good news. if blankenship is able to run as this third-party candidate in west virginia this could be good for joe manchin and. it's one of the most contested races. >> seems like blankanin shhh is just determined to just make the republican party's life miserable. >> manchin hasn't spent a dollar yet in west virginia. and they are very happy watching -- >> he claims that blachkenship is the only true conservative republican in the race. i wonder why he is so nice to don. >> exactly. also the other thing that could be problematic for democrats if this happens, mcconnell is talking about keeping them in session in august. he only has one senator that has to really go out and campaign. dean heller. and there are nine or ten

democrats that have to. if he keeps them off the campaign trail. our source versus story out. >> seems like a frchkly smart political tactic. >> and protesting judges, his biggest legacy. >> before we get tied up on the generic right typically you need a ten point spread for the democrats democrats to pick it up. in 2006 at the exact same time we didn't have a ten point spread either in the no. polling. but you look at the number of open seats. we have more open seats now than we had in 2006. and if the you look we have 23 seats that republicans hole that hillary won. and if you look at the pattern now we are at a 15 point swing in these districts. that's problematic for republicans. >> give me a second to try the put this stat up. i believe david wasserman has a fantastic stat that he discovered. open house seats for the majority party when the

president's opponent carried that district -- the majority party is 0-fer in those races. it's 0 for 23 is twhat the voic just told me. it has never happened. then again, the caps haven't won a stanley cup either. >> be on the one hand all the republicans who decided i don't want to run for congress anymore because the only thing that's less fun than being in the minority is abouting this the minority and losing your chairmanship. when paul ryan said he would be leaving, we braced for a huge exodus. and that did not happen. >> we are ending up with some candidates who are stronger than the incumbent candidate. >> that is good spin. no one is better than the incumbent. >> he is smiling. >> i have heard that argument

before. we are going to run all the races locally. it's going to be a localized election. i promise. >> one end to the other. >> quick pause button here. with the mid terms fast approaching how much does russia really matter? plus, how politics is virtually changing before our eyes. you will see what i mean, next. picking the right style takes time. one picky customer shouldn't take all your time. need something printed? the business advisors at office depot

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welcome back. on the i'm obsessed with a very cool new way we have found to look at the one thing that made the most responsible for changing american politics or at least the one thing that will help you figure out who somebody is going to vote for. if you really want to under this new technology you have to see it to believe it. check it out. we are going to take a look at the single cultural shift that may be most responsible for changing the american political landscape, more so than race orrette nisi. since 1994 the united states has become much more diverse. percentage of white voters has gone down and the number of non-white voters has nearly doubled. here's how voters identified themselves over the past ten years, basically since the era of obama and trump, it is been pretty steady. so the question is, if the parties haven't changed and the voters look like they haven't either, what's going on? one way to understand all of this is by looking at a single group of voters, white voters.

>> right, so, if we are looking for a change, where is it. in a recent pugh report you can see a serious change when it comes to white voters and their education. here's a graph showing how white voters without a college degree identify themselves. now historically of those without a college degree a few more of them identify as republican. and here's the graph showing how white voters with a college education would have identified themselves. historically many more of them would have voted republican. now you can see on both of these graphs that things changed completely. today if you are a white voter with a college education you are more likely to identify as democrat. if you are a white voter without a college degree, you are more likely to identify as republican. so we can put some history on here for context. here's the iraq war. and here is the beginning of the recession of 2008.

and over here is president obama's inauguration. and here, where the actual inversion happens, that's the arrival of done j. trump. basically what we are saying is that there has been a massive change hidden in what looks like no change at all. white voters identifying as republican has been stable, at about 51% since 1994. but it's in the last few years that who they are has changed. >> it wasn't always the case that college educated voters were voting democratic. in fact they used to mostly vote republican. go back to the '88 election. these states, all with high levels of college educated voters, california, illinois, new jersey, you a three of them voted for republican george h.w. bush. >> and they have not voted republican since. >> it's not just about whether or not you have a college education. the perception of whether a college-educated electorate is good has also changed.

republican support for college has plummeted, in part because many believe a university education is nothing more than an indoctrination for liberals and we are not saying that people with a degree are smarter or people without one aren't but a college education now becoming a clear indicator of how someone might identify as a voter. thanks to our friend over at nbc's left field for helping us put that together. we will be back with the panel and one of the biggest questions for the mid terms, is the russia card the trump card for the democrats or the republicans this november? and get back to work. with an industry first, carbon-fiber shaft... lawn care has never been this easy... ...or this powerful. the new ego power+ string trimmer with powerload™ technology. exclusively at the home depot and ego authorized dealers.

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we are back with our special midterm madness edition of "mtp daily." democrats have to decide whether they are going to play the russia card for the mid terms and how much they went want to highlight the ongoing investigation while people are heading to the ballot box. 20 years ago house republicans faced a similar dilemma.

back then they played the card. it didn't work. democrats picked up five seats in the house and the makeup of the senate didn't change at all which at the time was unbelievable. when the dust settled then soon to be exspeaker newt gingrich rich said the strategy misfired. this is him a week after the election. i totally underestimated the degree to which people would get six of 24 hour a day talk, television, and talk radio and then the degree to which this whole scandal became just sort of disgusting by sheer represent sigs. let's bring back our panel of political experts. cornell, i'll let you respond on that one first. >> do i have to? >> look, republicans admitted they overplayed their hand. >> i think -- i think when you look at republicans wanting to talk up impeachment, they are trying to get democrats to overplay their hand as well. when you look at the issues from health care to the tax cut that is unpopular and democrats talking about well, i will

repeal the tax cuts so we can pay teachers, inthat is a winning proposition. i think having a long drawn out conferring about impeachment and russia is an absolute loser for democrats of but i do think it is a winner for republicans because it gins up their base. >> amy bloeb shar who has sponsored legislation on facebook and tried to take center stage -- listen to what she said about the issue of russia recently. -- klobuchar. >> that's what people is on their head, what is happening to them, with their cost of college, what is happening, how does that tax bill affect them? those are things that are going to be on their mind. health care premiums. i am well aware of that they are not asking me about russian bots. they are asking me about soybean exports. >> soybeans. i think that the senator is right in respect that the issues affecting voters every day is what is going to motivate them. i also think the president has been effective at muggeling exactly what has been happening

with this investigation both russian interference, his own campaign, issues with people who are connected to his campaign. he has used the term witch-hunt almost 50 times on twitter since he has been elected. he has been able to change the conversation there to the point that yes voters aren't that concerned about it. but i don't think that voters are differentiating -- there is new polling out from navigator research a project of democratic operatives they put together that six in ten voters think there has been no wrong doing uncuffed by the mueller probe at all. that's not an accurate interpretation of reality but it's how the president talks about it. it gets melded anyone one so that nothing stand out individually. >> the russia wants to talk about -- the president wants to talk about russia every morning. and then you have some republicans wanting to run on

russia. >> i think that's one of the reasons desantos are lose to putnam in that race. i think the volume and complex it of this scandal means vote remembers tuning it out or at least thinking of it in morally neutral terms at this point. for house republicans and senate republicans it is tieu uniquely tied to one man, done j. trump. if you are a republican member of congress running in a competitive district in florida or colorado or north carolina or new jersey, that's not your problem. yes, he's the leader of the party. yes, you will be asked about imt but you can talk approximate jobs, the economy, tax cuts, national defense, border security, and that's what our guys are going to do. >> leann, you cover congress every day. we have a flashback quote of a sitting congressman in 1998 by the name of joe scarborough. after that he said we need an agenda. first of all we went an entire calendar year without an agenda. what is the agenda this calendar year. i know what they did in 2017.

what are they doing in 2018? >> the republican agenda. the senate are so happy they confirmed all these judge. they are remaking the federal judiciary. other than that, they are run on tax cuts. which is not motivating voters to go to the polls. democrats say the tax cuts have benefitted the wealthy and we are going to help the middle class. and dodd/frank -- most voters -- >> goss. eye gla. >> don't understand. it's going to the president's desk this week and it doesn't affect most people. they are totally lacking a message. >> we know what the democratic message, is what's the republican message? don't impeach the president? >> tax cuts, tax relief, full kploimt, the economy is humming along. the uncertainty of the image of

pelosi and schumer plotting to drain the swamp. >> cornell and i have had this discussion. i think he agrees with you. >> when you look at the sheer number of women. we have a historic number of women running this time around. those are the faces i think of the democratic party. when you look at the grassroots those are the people that are the faces of the democratic party. this election is going to be about change. you know, crazy, we are having another change election, right? but this election is going to be about change once again. and when you look at all those candidates who are not conventional. certainly those candidates who are not conventional, these are regular people standing up saying we want chain. >> let me ask you this, who is the most important -- what's the most important part of the electorate this year that you are curious about that you feel is going to be the decider of this election? >> women. >> anything specific? >> absolutely women. i mean women candidates, women as we were talk about before hand, women this the suburbs.

women of color. i think that their enthusiasm and their intensity to the polls i think is going to determine the election this year. >> older, rural whites, do they turn out in the same numbers as for other republicans as they did for trump. >> if -- >> i'm sorry. >> go ahead -- i agree with that. if they do it helps you all a lot. what i'm looking at is if millennials who are breaking hard democrat, if they turn out at anything approaching what boomers turn out, the election is easy. >> college educated white women, in suburbs. >> yeah. >> how -- is their reaction to trump enough to make someone how has voted for republican candidates to have the last eight years enough to say i'm out. >> was virginia a unique d.c. outlier because it is acute or was that the beginning of something bigger? >> i think it was worse in vishlgia than it will be anywhere else in part because of the impact to the d.c. suburbs. >> we didn't see 2006 educated

white women breaking away from the republican party like they are now. >> everyone is still sticking around. they haven't left the table yet. there is more to come including what we are sort of teasing about, how women are breaking all sorts of records this election year and what that could mean for what the congress looks like in 2019 and beyond. picking the right style takes time.

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♪i'm gonna follow the sun♪ ♪now i'm gonna tell my momma transitions™ light under control™ visit your local visionworks to ask about transitions™ brand lenses welcome back. female candidates are making some big waves already this election cycle. we are seeing record numbers of

women candidates running for office and winning primaries n. a lot of ways, their stories tell us where the political parties are right now. a little less than a week ago stacey abrams won georgia's democratic primary. she could become the first black female governor in the country. the size of her vicktry is so overwhelming. the same day a former fighter pilot, amy mcgrath bedefeated a well-known mayor in lexington kentucky. the week before, kara eastman defeated a former member of congress. these women and many others are breaking new ground. do they have a shot at winning in november. the panel is back. michael, lee anne, carry. carry, the stats you come up with, i think you tweeted one today. already more women nominees. seven states have had primaries. >> we are somewhere around a dozen. >> not even a third of the way

through. >> it's very early in the primary season. there has already been 72 nominees of a major party who are women. >> just for the u.s. house. >> in 1990 that's the total number of women who were nominees come november. we have a huge amount of primaries coming up. we have already surpassed that number. we are on track, and we should be clear that this is majority far and away a democratic phenomenon. of those 72 women, 62 of them are democrats. just ten are republicans. that's how big that spread is right now? lee anne, there has been a gender gap in american politics for a long time. now we have a candidate gap that seems to be if you are the republicans you have to be awfully nervous about this. >> i think this is the trump era. trump and women, they have a very multilayered relationship, maybe. >> you are being genius. >> well put. i was going the say i would have

been meaner about that. >> she's a reporter darn it. come on. >> i think that is translating to women enthusiasm, not only to the polls, but also to the candidates that decide to run. and i think that could be the lasting impact of donald trump is a new generation, a new face of politics as we see all these women who are running and winning. >> one thing that's interesting about that is that it's women -- traditionally in the past women candidates who got in often had a background of being a lawyer, a prosecutor. >> had already run for something. >> they were a state representative. now i think there is a fear that among when people advocate for female candidates when hillary clinton lost it was going to be a message to women it doesn't matter your experience you are going lose anyway. instead the message that women took away is you could be donald trump and have no experience. >> they took the other lessons. >> now you are seeing pediatricians, stay at home members, veterinarians, skypist

thes, people from all walks of life saying why can't i do that. >> notice how we men are sitting back. >> i will say one thing quickly. i think this is important. when you look at how the establishment candidates are not winning when you go to 2006 and look at where we took back the house it wasn't from emmanuel's top tier targets. it was those underneath those. the down from swell. >> two phenomenons involving women. i thought it's interesting in georgia it's not that stacey abrams won over stacey evans. african-american candidate over the white candidate. the number she won by means a lot of progressive voters voted for her, too. it was not as racially split as people thought it would be. what do you see down in georgia. >> i think you do see it. does that hold over to the general electorate where you do have republicans running ads about immigration buses? right. and when you look at how none who alot of democrats thought

was a great candidate -- >> the perfect paper candidate. >> and she got her hat handed to her among suburban white women. if she can swing women at a bigger pace she has a chance. >> if republicans hold onto the senate it will be because they had women nominees in two of the most important races they are dealing with, arizona and test tennessee. >> impressive ones. the republican party needs to do better on this. the most terrifying numbers in virginia were the number we lost by the younger voters and the number we lost of women. the reason groups have been backing their opponents is because first time candidates

don't usually have a chance. >> there is two ways to look at this. senate republicans have done a good job after blowing primaries intervening primaries. i think house republicans have never done that very effectively. when we get out of this beyond thunder dome, everybody hates republicans race, has the potential to blow a lot of races by helping the person they're trying to hurt. >> well, they're darned if they do, darned if they don't. because they don't intervene. >> there's some places where that intervention actually was okay. laura mozer lost in texas 7, we're still waiting to see what's going to happen in california. the stakes there are extremely, extremely high. >> absolutely, all right. one more break. still plenty to talk about on this memorial day edition of

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time now for "the lid." while the democrats look to take back the house and the speaker's gavel next november, the question looms large who will be the speaker of the house for both parties. it's not a question of who, but a question of when, will we have a new speaker before november?

what the heck is going on in the house and who in their right mind thinks a speaker vote before november is a good idea? >> no one in their right mind think that's a good idea. >> but plenty of people are not in their right mind. >> paul ryan is continuing to draw on fundraising, plus the prospect that kevin becomccarth going to be the next house speaker continues to gather momentum. why on earth would you disrupt this and have a grueling, national, potentially indecisive speaker vote between now and november? >> actually you mean likely? >> it's unclear if the republicans are going to have the majority next year, because mccarthy wants to be speaker because he could be minority

speaker. the problem for ryan is that he is a weakened speaker now. >> lame duck. >> he's a complete lame duck. >> we had are a farm bill blow up under speaker boehner almost a four years ago. >> they also like ryan's political team that used to tout their fund rasing numbers, that hasn't happened yet, question haven't gotten those numbers yet. he has been struggling in the last three months, it's a lame duck portion of the year anyway, everyone's focusing on the midterms. but it's creating some chaos in the party as they're trying to maintain control of the house. the immigration thing, for example, you have these different factors and the leadership, ryan, hasn't done that great of a job of keeping them united. >> what about the democrats?

mcmulvancmick mulvaney thought d be a good idea to rally the democrats. he somehow thinks there are democrats that are having to be on the defense that are actually sitting in congress right now. they don't exist. he thinks a pelosi vote is good for them. >> on either side, it's a process for them, it's a conversation that doesn't impact real americans. if you're spending in a year's time about speaker on republican side or democrat side, you're not talking about health care, you're not talking about health care, and you're not talking about gun violence in schools. >> how would you answer it if she's voted speaker? would you say i want someone different? >> she's been unpopular for a long time, but she's also been effective. i think there will be a number

of names in the hat for speaker this time around. you know, pick and choose the candidate who you think best fits the value of your district. >> my favorite result will be, it's a two or three seat majority, now go elect your speaker. >> every single candidate from the house is going to get that question from their opponent, would you support nancy pelosi as speaker. we have seen nonarguments, connor lamb said no i wouldn't and that worked out pretty well for him. >> all of a sudden the idea of supporting mccarthy because your conservative talk radio could explode. >> we have been having this debate for a dozen years. >> you can argue it's brought down a couple of speakers. >> i would argue it's totally different under trump, if only

nixon can go to china, and anything that happens that ryan wants to happen will have the blessing of the president and if it has the blessing of the president, talk radio doesn't blow up as it would as if it was barack obama or george w. bush. >> but he's the only one who hasn't played that role yet. and he needs to step in and mediate these things that are happening. >> they don't expect donald trump to be great at foreign affairs. they don't expect donald trump to to be -- they want him to be -- nationalism is all he's got. >> i'm going to do a mcglocklin group style, odds on favorite, who should be the favorite to be the next speaker of the house? not saying you think, one word

answers. >> crowley. >> crowley. >> mccarthy. >> crowley. >> there you go. wonderful discussion, we'll be back tomorrow with more "mpt daily." tonight we have a special on "the beat," bob mueller's next move, where the mueller investigation is headed. how mueller deploys the secretive grand jury process to collect evidence and new clues that federal investigators are moving beyond somewhat obscure figures like carter page and george popadopoulos, to scrutinize trump insiders like michael cohen who have been with trump for a decade. it's not trump versus