and that doesn't for me, thank you for watching. i hope you enjoy the rest of your independence day at home and you can catch "the beat" right here weeknights 6:00 p.m. > who is the fire cracker? let's play "hardball." >> i am chris matthews from washington. and it is july 4th. but the battle for 2020 is already done. visiting key states and most important honing their message to take on donald trump. at issue, whose vision for the democratic party will emerge. will it be the party of the left of bernie sanders, or a party of

moderates. well this november's fight for the control of house and the senate is really a class about whether or not trump should be contained. but 2020's presidential race promises to be more important. the u.s. role in the world and the future of our democratic institutions. we will explore the dynamics already in place. we begin with the key question, who will control the democratic party and its message. already a number of front runners with sizeable parties already. then there are the up and comers, politicians hoping to emerge akin to barack obama in 2008. people like senators camla

harris and cory booker. mayors who argue they are unencumbered by washington bag. joining me now is charlie book. and political correspondent for nbc. somebody has to make the judgment. who are the people who are being mentioned for president on the short list. >> joe biden, does he run or not. is he too old or not. i'm little more skeptical about bernie sanders. but i think elizabeth warren. >> susan, senator sanders will

be 79 election day. which is old even by ronald reagan sanders. joe biden is 78. john kerry is 77. elizabeth warren is 71. >> one of the things about donald trump is at his age, he was so active on the campaign trail. he never stopped. but what is also interesting about those people that you mentioned and even some in the introduction is that it is how used to how they are running in the old settings. the folks that we have talked about for the most part so far are people who run traditional campaigns. can they break out of the mold of this is how you do something in order to run against the donald trump.

>> who do you think are the front runners? >> i will put cory booker. >> because he is going to run. >> and probably the most nibble people. we have seen him on social media. and seen him adapt that way. >> joe biden. this is a crucial election. we have seen what has happened in this country and how conversations and narratives being transformed. 2020 is not the year where a -- >> who said? >> i'm glad you said that. >> one of the biggest names is form former vice president joe biden. here is what he said about possibly making a third run for the white house. >> i have plenty of time to

consider whether or not to run. we have qualified people out there. is this right for me to do. and the only thing that is right for me to do now is to try stop this enormous erosion of the moral fabric that is at the hands of donald trump and the republicans. >> you know, heidi, sounds like he wants to beat trump. >> you know, there is a scenario despite his age that party officials tell all of us reporters is not out of the impossible. and that is that you pair joe biden with a younger, maybe a minority candidate, maybe a camela harris. you see in him the fact that he continues to be not openly, but privately haunted by the fact

that he feels that if he had run in 2016, this, meaning trump may not have happened. he is joe from scranton. and all of those midwestern working class voters who hillary lost would be willing to give him a chance. and the one thing that has been in the past when susan talks about the differences between the past and the present, what was a potential liability for joe biden in the past is now viewed as authenticity. >> that is well said. reagan tried to do this back in -- when in the hell was that? '76. it didn't work. is that feasible for a president. my running mate is going to be ready to take over.

her name is kamela harris. we are running as a team. would she go along with that? what about if she wants to be at the top of the ticket? >> this is a better shot. being running mate to a guy that is in his upper 70s, your chances are good that you are going to make it. >> i'm sure the grim reaper. >> sort of the old woman who is asked by a friend, how is your husband and she says compared to what. if democrats nominate someone who is less controversial than president trump or hillary clinton. they will probably win that race based on trump's numbers. >> let me remind everybody that

joe biden has a past. and you know, he has his nicknames all figured out. you are up against a nasty bully in the world in trump. >> there is a difference of being viable and electable. the way he would beat trump -- >> you mean trump wouldn't kill him with those issues? >> not at all. look at this guy over here, i'm the real guy. joe biden would cream donald trump if they face each other in annual election. if he pulls this paul newman, thing, i don't think you can win a primary like that. >> what are you offering here? >> you're right, syracuse is going to be warton.

>> if you think that you have a chance at beating donald trump that he is beatable in 2020 you are not going to wait for your turn. >> so kamela is not sitting in the second seat. >> i don't think she would. >> who is the democrats going to run this year? you don't pick the president, we don't pick the president, they pick themselves. as mitch mcconnell says i have an entire caucus of class president. these guys that have been running for office since college or high school. clinton is a typical one. they are all like that. they want it, kirsten don't need anybody else but kirsten jilla brand. and that is how it works. >> you don't have to have such a big massive support structure.

>> how self indig ant do democrats want to be. >> mcgovern was feel good. gold water was feel good. it hasn't happened in a while. >> you have to look at 2012 when we had a bunch of clown car republicans. if trump looks weak, and this is the most important thing to the democrats. what do they do about voting rights, what do they do about some of these bills. >> let me tell you about bernie sanders is probably thinking. and jeff weaver is thinking. if there is ever in history a

guy with socialist background, running an awful opponent in donald trump. >> and his wife is behind him. >> senator elizabeth warren sounded like a candidate. let's listen to senator warren. >> we're fighting for women and that means electing more women. putting more women in positions of power from committee rooms to board rooms to that nice oval shaped room at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. what do you think? >> make no mistake, none of this is going to be easy. we will face obstacles, together and no matter what is thrown in our way, we will persist. so i hope you're ready to fight

up hill for as long as it takes. because i'm going up that hill and i need you with me all the way. >> wow. heidi, i think we just heard the opening sound of elizabeth warren running for democratic nomination where i think that message will be resounding. your thoughts? >> maybe, maybe not. sounds like 2016 when you and i sat on the set and had the same speculation. either bernie or warren. not both. she loves to give those stump speeches, but it is a little kept secret that she doesn't actually enjoy the other semantics of campaigning, she doesn't love the push and pull with the media. and i don't think she will do it if bernie sanders runs.

>> who decides? and then she -- she jump in first >> bernie is doing nothing to tamp down speculation. he is making trips to key states. he had his guy jeff weaver in the dnc meetings, he puts his stamp on them and most importantly, he is trying to move a little bit beyond his pet issues. one of the criticisms is that he had his same message. beating up on the billionaires and the millionaires. >> probably the same message since 1945. but i disagree, bernie with tremendous zealous following, he can jump in late in the game. >> i think elizabeth warren will eat his lunch. she's the real deal and with the

age that makes more sense. >> the youngster against the other guys. plus democrat with a wild card pit. the fantasy roster includes oprah winfrey, michelle obama. plus the biggest question the democrats face in 2020, how do you run against president trump when it comes to him and you. president trump has already begun testing his message. hyping his own achievements in office. and more than a whisper campaign. this is "hardball."

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not even finished with the 2018. sizing up the competition for 2020. the wild cards, like oprah winfrey and billionaires like mark cuban. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg, and howard schultz. that's not exciting talk. back with charlie cook, susan del percio, and hidie przybyla. any of them have the chutzpah,

to walk into the presidential campaign and act like a candidate? >> i think it is hard to run from a business space. >> they don't like business guys. >> it would be better off if they looked at one, but i don't think where the democratic party's heart is right now. >> they would have to beat trump at his own game and with the exception of oprah winfrey, donald trump is a media person. he knows how to do that job and that is what you need if you are going to tackle him. >> he doesn't know stuff. >> then, what about -- >> he doesn't know stuff like how to be president. >> i have watched a ton of interviews with schultz. mark cuban would have been okay if there hadn't been a me too scandal. and i can't imagine a

circumstance for oprah to run. >> do you like any of these? >> the point that jason was making about the difficulty of getting somebody through a primary. think about the split screen between the guy who has shady connections to business and oligarchs, bankruptcies, next to the ceo of a socially conscious company howard schultz who provides good benefits, who is progressive, helps his employees get college educated. but he wouldn't make it through. he committed the sin saying on the record that democrats are promising things that they can't deliver on. he is a pragmatist. and that is what hillary clinton did. >> if you don't promise more than you can deliver, you are not a credible democrat. oprah winfrey's powerful speech

led a powerful campaign. despite those calls to run, winfrey insists she is not interested. but has words of advice for any potential candidate. >> you know one of the things i am not running for office. i am not letting you go there. about if you were running for office and i would say to whoever is going to run for office, do not give your energy to the other side. do not spend all your time talking about your opponents. do not give your energy to that which you really don't believe in. >> susan, you are shaking your head. >> that is exactly what donald trump is going to do. he is going to force the democrats in a primary. whether there is a primary against him or not, he will be after them in that democratic primary, and they are not going to have a choice to respond.

>> he wants a gross back and forth and personal and awful. oprah has no sense of ethnic difference, gender difference. people who come on her show, she cares about them as human beings. >> she lost 30% of her ratings when she came out for president obama. >> her sympathies are good with everybody. >> i think she could be a great helper for someone but can't imagine her being out there as somebody who can run and be successful. >> let's go to somebody halfway between the regular political and oprah, eric holder. he has the stuff, he has the chops. he is attractive, he can talk on tv. he can perform.

he can debate. >> how many ways can you chop up the african american pie. kamela harris, cory booker. they are all going to be going after the same place. and you haven't talked about like eric garcetti and people like that. >> he is hispanic. >> three out of four grandparents are hispanic. >> whether they go for a wild card, democrats facing a major question, how do you beat trump. get to that straight ahead. some cash back cards send you on a journey to get to your bonus cash back. first they make you sign up for bonus cash back and it's only on a few categories. and when those categories change, you gotta sign up again. when does it end?! with the capital one quicksilver® card, you earn unlimited 1.5% cash back

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what do we stand for? is the american public as much as they don't like the present administration want to hear a definition again of who we are. >> well, democratic presidential candidates have been testing out their messages against trump over the past few months. >> i'm angry but ready to fight back. i am here today because i am an optimist. here because i believe in

democracy. >> flawed though we may be, imperfect though we may be, i believe we are a great country. and this is a moment in time that is requiring us to fight for who we are. >> when you are president, you know the job is to bring people together not divide them up. >> and we're being told by many that we have to make what i call a false choice, do we yield only to our progressive values or do we work on those things that affect high school educated working people who are under siege as if they are different. where i come from, there is no difference. you don't have to choose between your heart and your soul. >> back with our panel, charlie, susan, jason, and heidi. i don't know why biden is angry.

trump is going to go in there and try to win a couple of states and then he is going to try to pick up a couple more. maybe try to get a couple more. maybe minnesota that he lost by a point and a half. maybe after illinois. i don't know. >> he can try that and it is going to look different after his tariff policy goes into place for a lot of those states. so that is going to be a big factor. he is going to i think keep what he did in 2016, go botld, stron, and after everything. every group that he thinks he can touch. not a state by state strategy. >> he has attacked hisspannic people. he is going to go after african

americans. he is going after islamic people. he is going to be a white candidate. so he doesn't have that much reach. that's who he is. >> well he had enough to get elected. >> i know. but he's got to hold it. >> he knows division. not addition. so name a group that he didn't win that he has tried to reach out to. >> jewish voters, but not that many in terms of big numbers. >> name two. >> no. i don't think he has done that with jared, and the full range over the middle east. he has made it clear he is pro israeli. i'm not sure it is big enough. >> the margins were really close in a lot of states. what happens if wisconsin has a democratic government where you are not going to have voter suppression going on. >> there was voter suppression in '16?

>> oh yeah. 175,000 people magically disappear from the rolls. if you have democratic governments in these states, you can still win and not keep some of the places he had before, because when you don't have hillary clinton on the ballot. >> the stuff they used against mcauliffe, against biden, he will have them ready. that personal destruction of the opponent, how do you walk into that and want to enjoy that da if you are a candidate. >> republicans are counting on the fact that democrats are going to nominate someone out of the mainstream, that bernie sanders is going to push everyone and already is for medical for all. we are seeing how he is going to

run. it is the exact same way to run the first time. going back to the wall and talking about immigrants as an infestation. insults. revived pocahontas and revived hillary's e-mails. >> he is tired of going after pelosi, so he teamed her up with maxine waters. democrats better define themselves as moderates -- he will define them. >> that is the plan they know. they only know thousand attack and not build themselves up. but there is something in addition to the governors that you mention. we to have see what happens in 2016 to see what kind of congress he is facing and how much pain they are going to put

on him. he may have, there is a possibility that he has too many people to fight at one time. >> would you like to have the house impeach if a partisan way? >> he will never be able to handle the impeachment. he doesn't have the mind set for him. >> even if it is partisan? >> even if it is partisan. >> charlie, what do you think? clinton came out looking brighter than when he went in. >> 2020. that is when it blows big time. governing numbers. >> heidi, will trump be able to blame everything on the democratic house if he loses it? >> i think his agenda is pretty much over regardless of who takes control of the house. >> gridlock until 2020

regardless. i don't know if he will be successful, but he will try. >> harry truman did it in '48. up next, the president has settled on his message, branded the democrats as the enemy. you're watching "hardball." rmin. humira has a proven track record of being prescribed for over ten years. it's the #1 prescribed biologic by dermatologists. more than 250,000 patients have chosen humira to fight their psoriasis. and they're not backing down. for most patients clearer skin is the proof. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems. serious allergic reactions and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where

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welcome back to "hardball." president trump has his 2020 playbook figured out. blame the democrats. >> my issue is -- if you listen to them. but ours is like approved. get it done. get it done. their word is resist. they want to resist everything. they think that is going to help

them get into office. i don't think so. >> back with our panel. there is the president, i think we heard last week, we heard all about this message. they are for open borders, for ms-13. we are the other. >> your message is only as effective as the candidate you get. if you get a terry mcauliffe and his campaign message is get it done, you can believe that. the democrats are going to have trouble having a message before having a candidate. >> you are going to see donald trump take either of those two candidates and he is still going to make them the evil democrats. he will just -- >> what would you do as a woman for example when you are facing the same thing trump did to her, mighty mouse looming over her.

how do you deal with trump's boorishness. i don't know if she could have turned, get back in your corner bub. she didn't do that. >> and i think she was afraid of using the woman card, if you will. >> what does the guy do? >> he has got to hold his own space and push back. >> look george w. did against gore. >> as a woman, there is nothing wrong with saying, that's not what i -- something that plays on he is acting like the buffoon that he is. call him out. >> charlie what do you think? >> i don't care. to me, donald trump got 46% of the vote and he has a 46%

message. if you think 46% wins in 2020, that is fine. i don't think 46 is going to be a winning percentage. >> i don't think we are going to see 50% again. >> i don't think you are. >> heidi, do you think there will be a third party candidate going down the middle? >> the third party candidates that we are now talking about would take away from him in theory. this is so hard to game out, but the two names that are most mentioned. >> bernie and trump. >> kasich. >> how would weld? >> i remember -- trump rarely passes up an opportunity on how great his presidency is. let's watch him selling it.

>> nobody had any idea that i would be able to do so much so soon. all of those things are being done or close to being done. a lot of them have great starts. you to have start. >> we are going to start winning again. we are winning. like we haven't won before. the greatest phrase i think in the history of politics is on all of those red and white hats that i see out there. make america great again. and that's exactly what we're doing. make america great again. and you know what our new phrase is, in two and a 1/2 years, you know what it is. keep america great. >> you know, susan, every role that we are taught growing up, don't brag. that is what he does, he brags like a buffoon.

>> broken every political norm we have known. whether it is a candidate, or as a president, we all try to look at him through a lens that doesn't exist anymore. >> how is he going to go away, going against maxine waters, and attacks her iq. >> he does these offensive things all the time. this is what the democrats need. call it a fight or whatever. the person who wins, the democrat who wins, says you might want to back up. see how it resonates. the way you beat trump, and hillary was most effective when she pokes holes at his ego.

that is what you -- >> okay, heidi, if you are going to swing, you better punch hard. you got to follow through. if you are not ready to go to the mat, you are going to look back. >> i think it is going to be a lot about the rebound. and this is poll tested. don't take it from me. i have met with probably the same democratic outside groups that these candidates have and they actually have poll-tested these messages already and what they are telling them is look, if you are going to be like hillary clinton and run on trump's temperament, that is not going to work. particularly with the millennials, you think it is firing people up, it actually depresses them, especially that younger demographic who experienced their political awakening during the obama years

and saw the equal reaction to that is trump. and it is demoralizing to them. the way to fire those people up is going back to be the issue that has always been the issue which is about the pocketbook issue. health care prices is going through the roof. why aren't we talking about the corrupt things going on in this administration for example with scott pruitt. >> then hillary clinton said i talked those things over and over again in every speech and nobody covered it. >> yes, she did. that is absolutely true. it is a valid criticism. how she tried to get her message out in the alzheimer's research and that is a valid point. you have to be great on the rebound. >> up next, trump is ready preparing to do battle.

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conservatism is. and what republicans traditionally stood for. >> if you ran, would you only run as a republican. >> i think so. >> that was retiring senator jeff flake arguing that a republican should challenge trump in 2020. with donald trump sitting at 90% support against republican voters, would anyone take him on? is there anyone out there beating the bushes and look like they are getting ready to take him on? >> i wouldn't be surprised. but i think they would need dental records for anyone running. >> i would agree. the only thing that would lead towards a pass if there was a big strong blue wave.

that would use it to beat up the president and question his competency. >> lose both houses? >> lose both houses. he won't have people rolling over for his agenda and you can have another side of coming at him that could potentially work. >> jason, how about the normal business cycle. everybody acts like this is permanent what we are doing now. >> look. we are due for a correction in the economy and when that happens, if it is mixed with a blue wave and mixed with key states being lost, you will republicans and possibly a bob corker or mitt romney saying somebody has to save us. that is going to be the message. >> i wouldn't vote for somebody that voted for this tax thing and then saw an economic decline and said i knew better.

this tax is bad news. i think there is always going to be somebody like a kasich that says it is worth their risk of being horatio. >> it is always a function of conditions. just like mike bloomberg was waiting it out. let me float an idea here. i don't think that just because a republican throws his hat in, and does a primary challenge and runs as an independent that it necessarily hurts republican donald trump and this is why. the demographic that is up for grabs is the suburban female republican women. and if they are only given donald trump or the democrat and the democrat is a more progressive candidate, then the person who gets their vote

syphoned is the democrat not donald trump. it could actually hurt the democrat. >> i have heard that from somebody i know pretty well, my wife. what do you think, charlie? >> i agree with. that but i simply don't think we are going to have a republican of any stature that would tip this thing. >> it is going to be weird to see a guy like trump with all his personal failings and weirdness to sweep through primary caucuses without opposition. >> republican politicians are terrified of donald trump and terrified of his base. even when it -- >> you know who says that, trey gowdy. >> they don't even know how to begin to take him off.

look at what he did to 16 others in the primaries. nobody knew how to deal with him. >> why does low energy jeb work. why do these shots that we used to have in eighth grade, why do they work with grown-ups. >> if you care about the republican party, you actually look at the political autopsy from 2012 and say that is the direction. and donald trump is something that none of us can make sense of. the party has to go back in that direction. >> up next, reported that mike pence considered a two after the access hollywood tape came out.

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then we connect you to our team of media experts, who are ready to help you maximize your budget while elevating your advertising effectiveness. sounds like an advertising opportunity knocking. visit comcastspotlight.com today. welcome back to "hardball." here is a wild scenario, donald trump gets challenged by his own vice president. let's watch that. >> thanks to the leadership of president donald trump. welcome to the beginning of the end of obamacare. thank you for your boundless faith in the american people. president trump has been making history since the first day of this administration. >> i know i speak on behalf of

the entire cabinet of millions of americans when i say congratulations and thank you. you have restored american credibility on the world stage. signed more bills rolling back red tape. i am deeply humbled as your vice president to be able to be here. >> thanks to the leadership of president donald trump. we are protecting the american people by secure the american people. greatest privilege of my life to serving vice president of president trump. a man of his word. a man of action. >> look at him shadow trump removing his water bottle. but if the heat gets turned up, is there any doubt perhaps that pence could jump trip? "the atlantic" reports pence

contemplated a mutiny. he was ready to take trump's place. he does seem almost religious in his fervor for the president. >> bush got fired, and trump got nominated. >> i think every republican leader was going, okay, what do we do now. >> pence did too. >> you are inside the republican head, is there any chance pence will pull a coup? >> what he is trying to do is put himself in a pretzel.

they will be willing to accept him as their next leader. what a great show. thank you. that is "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. and happy fourth of july. "all in with chris hayes" starts now. >> a special independence day episode of "all in." tonight we present some of our most explosive interviews of the year thus far. from the fiery steve schmidt. this was our segment