it is just starting. expect for it to accelerate as we move on through the year. "last word" starts right now. its pace moving through the year. lawrence o'donnell starts right now. trying to thaw icy relations with russia. a group of seven lawmakers visit moscow ahead of president trump's meeting with vladimir putin. it comes as the senate intel committee released the report, reaffirming the intelligence community's assessment putin tried to help trump win in 2016. plus, with days to go until his self-imposed deadline, president trump is narrowing his list of potential supreme court candidates. and a threat of heavy rain is forcing rescue teams to consider different ways to get 12 trapped boys and their soccer coach out of a flooded cave in thailand. ♪

good morning, everybody. it is thursday, july 5th. i'm ayman mohyeldin. an intelligence community report was right to conclude that vladimir putin was helping donald trump. it released the finding on tuesday after an in-depth review of the assessment from january, 2017. the report states after conducting interviews with those who drafted and prepared the assessment, quote, the committee heard consistently analysts were under no politically-motivated pressure to reach any conclusions. richard bure said the committee spent the last 16 months reviewing sources, trade craft and analytical work and sees no reason to dispute the conclusions. that contrasts with the house republican study which disputed the judgments on putin's strategic intentions, claiming they did not employ proper analytic tradecraft.

the house intelligence committee broke down along partisan lines with democratic congressman tevin nunes. u.s. lawmakers traveled to moscow this week on a republicans-only trip to russia, hoping to improve relations ahead of president trump's meeting with vladimir putin in heel zinke. a trip six months ago was cancelled after a visa was denied. senators commented on russian officials repeated denials that their government meddled in the 2016 election. in response, the senators said they stood firm. >> our message to the russians were we believe you meddled in our elections and don't do so in 2018 and 2020 if you want this relationship to improve. you need to demonstrate to us

that our elections are off limits for your interference. >> one of the things that we believe the russians can demonstrate good faith on is we have an upcoming election. they argue and maintain and we disagree profoundly with them that they did not meddle in the 2016 election, but if they wanted to demonstrate to america that, you know, they want a different relationship moving forward, then obviously staying out of the 2018 election in our country would be a big step in that direction. >> i think it is a given in the united states, both parties, that russia tried to meddle and probably did meddle in the election. all right. so that last voice you heard was senator richard shelby who is leading the delegation. he said, i'm not here to accuse russia of this or that or so forth. i'm saying that we should all strive for a better relationship. now, in talks with russian

foreign minister sergei lavrov, shelby spoke hopefully about this month's sit-down between donald trump and vladimir putin. >> i know it will be a big meeting. we hope it is going to be very big between the president and yours in helsinki. we won't be coming out of the putin/trump meeting in helsinki, we will need to begin maybe on a new day, we will have to wait and see. >> president trump is expected to anuns his supreme court nominee on monday and has spoken with seven potential candidates according to the associated press. vice president pence has met with some of the contenders. a person familiar with the search process tells the a.p. that the meetings took place in rece rece recent days but would not say which candidates were met with pence. leading candidates are bret kavanaugh and amy kony barrett.

according to the associated press, republican senator rand paul has told colleagues he may not vote for kavanaugh if he is nominated. a person familiar with the says he cited kavanaugh's role during the bush administration on cases involving executive privilege and exposure of documents to congress. meanwhile, senator susan collins said she won't support any supreme court pick who demonstrates any hostility towards roe v. wade. she said she talked to the white house counsel about some of the potential scotus nominees. >> i have done a lot of work on the list, and i have told the white house counsel, individuals that to me appear to meet the criteria of accepting that roe v. wade is settled law and who have extraordinarily good background. >> the trump administration is set to escalate its trade battles, even as the effects are

beginning to be felt by americans. the administration is expected to impose $34 billion worth of tariffs on chinese goods. beijing has vowed to take equal measures. president trump promised if china retaliates the u.s. will impose even more tariffs, perhaps worth up to a total of $450 billion. nearly 90% of all goods china exported to the united states last year. earlier today chinese commerce ministry said china will not bow in the face of threats and blackmail. there's evidence that china is making its own measures against u.s. companies. several companies say china drastically increased random port and border inspections, ordering perishable goods into kw quarantine and back to the u.s., in addition to stalling product approvals and slowing up visa and licensing applications. a notice was posted warning chinese tourists should avoid

going out at night alone in the u.s. because, quote, u.s. law and order is not good and shootings, robbery and theft are frequent. all of this comes as there's growing fear state side that trump's proposals and trade strategies are hurting the very industries he vowed to help, and that while his one-sided policies may help one industry they are significantly hurting others. and now catching up with the facts after a presidential tweet storm on an array of topics. apparently inspired by fox news' coverage with claims that were exaggerated, unsubstantiated or simply just false, the president's tweet on north korea claiming it is going well because of no rocket launches or nuclear testing in eight months, followed fox news analysis announcement hidden uranium are fluff. another tweet, just out that obama administration granted citizenship touring the terrible iran deal negotiation to 2,500 iranians, including to

government officials. well, that appears to be absolutely baseless. current and former dhs officials said they could not verify the claim but did not want to be identified in contradicting the president. here is another random tweet for you this one suggesting that the nsa threed 685 million phone and text messages and tying it to the commentary on the lou dob show. lastly, this tweet, claiming that harley-davidson suffered for a decision they announced last week. american voters advertise approve of the job president trump is doing according to a quinnipiac role. his rating is down three points since polling was released. joining us, niels lewiski. what is next now that the probe

backs up the finding of russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election. >> it is good to be with you, of course. i think the question of what is next for the committee is really going to be a matter of what we see coming out of the meeting between president trump and vladimir putin next week. because whether or not the committee releases anything else ahead of that meeting is going to be a matter of interest and, of course, whether or not president trump weighs in on what the committee's findings were ahead of that meeting or whether putin tries to dismiss the findings of the senate intelligence panel is all going to be really important in terms of not necessarily what the committee itself is doing but where it will go from here. >> going off script for a quick second, are you surprised at all with the timing of this, of when the senate intelligence report came out? obviously so to speak on the eve

of this historic meeting, but also before this group of senate republicans travel to russia? >> right. well, there was the group of senate republicans in russia when this was coming out. it was interesting timing. normally you would say it was a news dump because it was released on the afternoon before the july 4th holiday. in this case i don't think that's necessarily the case. i think they wanted to get it out as soon as they could after the lavrov meeting, which was obviously a different group of senate republicans. but i think that that's sort of the oddity of all of the timing in the next couple of weeks, is going to be related to we don't know what we will hear when, and obviously waiting to hear what the house intelligence committee says as well in its more partisan operation, if they say anything. >> right. let's focus on the group of republican lawmakers actually in russia as you were mentioning. what do you think they're hoping to gain before that meeting between trump and putin later this month in helsinki?

>> well, i think that they need to try to lay the ground work for the trump/putin summit, but what they're really trying to do is figure out i think whether or not there is going to be any kind of an opening for improved relations. you know, a lot of these people who were on this trip -- not all of them, but a lot are involved in the defense appropriations and how the u.s. military budget goes along, and there are a lot of things throughout the world where, frankly, as richard shelby, chair of the appropriations committee said, where it would be better if we were at least coordinating with russia, if not necessarily fully in agreement with them. >> yeah, indeed. neils, great to see you this morning. as democracy was further crumbling last summer in venezuela, president trump reportedly asked top aides why the united states couldn't simply invade the country. a senior administration official

tells the associated press that the president closed that question during a meeting last summer, stunning those in the room including secretary of state rex tillerson and national security adviser h.r. mcmaster. they pushed back but trump relented, citing the invasion of grenada where invasion raised. the senior administration official and two high-ranking colombian officials tell the associated press, and on the sidelines of the u.n. assembly in september he once again discussed the idea in greater length with leaders of four latin america allies including colombia according to the same people. the official tells the a.p. trump was told not to raise the issue and it wouldn't play well. however, the first thing he said was, quote, my staff told me not to say this. congressman jim jordan denies allegations of sexual

harassment. he told "politico", it is not true, i never knew about any type of abuse. if i did i would have done something about it. look, if there are people who are abused, then that's terrible and we want justice to happen. three former wrestlers told nbc news it was common knowledge that the team's doctor richard straws regularly showered with students and inappropriately touched them during appointments and said it would be impossible for jordan to be unaware. in fact, one wrestler said he told jordan directly about the abuse. the university announced it was investigating the claims. the republican leader of the house freedom caucus was assistant coach from 1986 to 1994. jordan repeatedly said he knew nothing about the former allegations until the former students went public earlier this year.

police are trying to determine whether two investigations might be linked. plus, a standoff on the statue of liberty that forced an evacuation of the new york city landmark. we'll have those stories and a check on weather when we come right back. stay with us. ♪ ♪ a hotel can make or break a trip. and at expedia, we don't think you should be rushed into booking one. that's why we created expedia's add-on advantage.

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welcome back, everyone. the trump administration scrapped 24 affirmative action policies including seven obama-era guidelines encouraging schools to diversify campuses. in a joint letter the education and justice departments announced the decision and signalled the administration would champion rails-blind standards, calling the affirmative action guidelines beyond the requirements of the constitution and unnecessary, outdated, inconsistent with existing law or otherwise improper. since new guidelines were not offered, the new move reverts the government's policy back to

bush-era race-neutral guidance. schools that keep race-conscious admission policies could face a justice department investigation or lose funding from the department of education. several universities have already come out against the decision and say they will proceed with diversifying efforts. a man and a woman in the uk have been critical poisoned using the same military-grade nerve agent that poisoned a former rush wran spy and his daughter four months ago. the couple were found unconscious in their home in the town about seven miles away from salsbury where the poisoning of the two previous victims occurred. moscow has denied involvement. police say it is not yet known if the nerve agents were from the same batch, however, they are investigating whether the two poisonings are linked back here in new york, a security breach on the 4th of

july? a protester climbed the statue of liberty leading authorities to evacuate the landmark. the demonstrator scaled the base of the statue and said she wouldn't come down until children separated from their parents at the u.s./mexico border were reunited. members of the new york police department emergency service unit said the rescue attempt was actually difficult because there was nothing for them to grab on to for stability. the group rise and resist said in a statement that the ton demonstrator was a participant in a protest at the base of the monument but said she acted on her own. let's bring in bill karins for an update on the weather. >> are you ready for end of the heat wave? >> no, i enjoy the heat wave. >> you have another day of it, then tomorrow we end it. one more day for you. we call this like the heat dome. it has been sitting over the eastern half of the country for about the last week. we will see it start to shift to the west, and that's where we will see extreme heat while the east cools off a couple of

degrees for what should be a nice weekend. this number keeps fluctuating because it is the time of morning they change all of our advisories and warning, but roughly 50 million people still. some spotty spots in areas of interior new england, and then we have a large area through the mississippi river and along the ohio river and excessive heat warning around the memphis area. as far as the summer heat wave goes for the highs today, the reason we will watch the excessive heat warning in memphis, 108 heat index. today is the last in chicago, you should feel 100. columbus, ohio, 101. boston should feel like 98 today, not exactly enjoyable there. areas like dallas cooled off a little bit. by the time we get to the weekend, this is where we get the reward. look at detroit. we drop to 80 on friday, a high of 80 on saturday, so nice stuff coming down from canada for the great lakes. ohio valley not bad either, in the 80s. even new york city only 84 on

friday after being 90 or so today, and the humidity levels will drop significantly. you will feel it especially in the nighttime hour as you go through saturday night and wake up sunday morning. refreshing air mass. it is not often we get the cooler air in the carolinas. charlotte, 83. sunday, around 84. for today's forecast, rain and storms through the ohio valley and along the gulf coast. we had significant rain in the houston area. they got in the fireworks, but in the houston they had the prefireworks stuff was rained out unfortunately. >> your prediction was right, it was a beautiful night here in new york for the fireworks at least. >> yes, it turned out all right after rain showers earlier in the day. >> thanks for that. a 4th of july tradition on coney island and the baseball highlights for independence day. sports is next. to be two hundred years old. (woman) how old do you think that one is? (man 1) my guess would be, about...

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with the most securely encrypted main frame in the world. it's a smart way to eat lunch in peace. sweet, oblivious peace. welcome back. louis is off so time for sports. what can be more american than the 4th of july filled with baseball and a stomach filled with whatever they put in hot dogs. let's start on the diamond. in the bronx, the yankees slugger giancarlo stanton slammed a home run as the yankees top the braves 6-2. to the nation's capital. the red sox continue their winning ways. they shut out the nationals 3-0. while in the home of the liberty bell, the phillies rolled over the baltimore orioles 4-1. milwaukee and minnesota played a

close one, but the brew crew prevailed 3-2. the angels beat the mariners 7-4. it is so important because it snaps seattle's eight-game-winning streak. despite losing, lebron earlier this week, we proved we can win in cleveland as they topped the royals 3-2. the rockies beat the giants. they win 1-0. extras were needed in the battle of the lone star state, but in the end the astros would prevail over the rangers 5-4. and this was the story of yesterday. a new world record for nathan's annual hot dog eating contest. this is defending champion joey "jaws" chestnut. he fended off 20 other contestants. none had a chance going into it. he broke his own record by eating 74 hot dogs. just doing that alone is enough, but he did it in ten minutes. according to espn, more than $1

million was bet -- yes, gambling on the annual hot dog eating contest. chestnut was the favorite obviously, ayman. it was his record to beat. he beat the nearest competitors by ten dogs. >> where did you come in the ranking, bill? i know you are a big hot dog guy. >> i spluged yesterday. i took down a slider and one dog. >> wow, bill. >> it was a busy tay. >> going to have to hit the treadmill take, burn some of that off. still ahead, president trump is set to meet with vladimir putin in just over a week and there's word he wants to do it one-on-one without aides present. plus, new reporting about scott pruitt, yet again appealing to the president for a different role in trump's cabinet. he is weighing in on whether he asked to be attorney general. we'll be right back. ♪

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♪ welcome back, everyone. i'm ayman mohyeldin. let's start with the morning's top stories for you. in a few days president trump is expected to announce who he will nominate for the supreme court vacancy created by justice anthony kennedy's requirement. peter alexander has the latest on those thought to be the top contenders. >> happy 4th of july. >> reporter: president trump celebrating america's independence with service members and their families. >> thank you for keeping america safe, strong, proud, mighty and free. >> reporter: building suspense around his supreme court pick that could spark more fireworks.

>> these are very talented people, brilliant people and i think you're going to love it. >> reporter: the president relishing the second opportunity to put his stamp on a more conservative court, narrowing his list two seven canned gnaws with two leading contenders. brett kavanaugh, a veteran of george w. bush's white house, drawing support from establishment republicans opposed to government regulation. >> has a real mass mastery of administrative law. >> reporter: barrett at 46 would be the youngest swrus advertise, a catholic who became a hero to social conservatives during her last confirmation hearing when senator feinstein questioned whether her faith would affect her legal judgment. >> the dogma lives loudly within you. >> reporter: ultimately, the senate will have to confirm any nominee with maine republican susan collins targeted by new ads from an abortion rights group, trying to guarantee she

will block any pick who would overturn roe v. wade. >> if a nominee has demonstrated hostility to roe v. wade and has said that nary not going to abide by that longstanding precedent i could not support that nominee. >> reporter: on the 4th of july the president spent the afternoon at his virginia gulf club. aides tell me he also spoke by phones to advisers about his supreme court pick. after watching the fireworks last night, the political pyrotechnics will soon heat up. the president today heads to montana where that's a contentious senate race. ayman. >> thanks to peter alexander for the report. senior republican senator richard shelby said in moscow he expects a big meeting between president trump and russian president vladimir putin, but a report claims trump is hoping the meeting will actually be very small, at least in size. a source tells cnn president trump is planning for a one-on-one meeting with putin in finland later this month,

starting off without any aides present and later adding more officials to the discussion. the report notes concerns that without other folks present part of the president's meeting will lack an official record and could cause confusion over what was decided in that exchange. notably, this would not be the first time putin and trump spoke without american aides present. last year's g20 summit trump sat with putin for a second meeting at dinner relying exclusively on a kremlin translator. scott pruitt is denying a cnn report he asked the president to fire jeff sessions and appoint him as attorney general instead. the network cites three people familiar with the investigation, but pruitt said in a statement, quote, this report is simply false. general sessions and i are friends and i have always said i want nothing more than to see him succeed in his role. back in january as leaders of the house freedom caucus were calling on sessions to design,

"politico" reported that pruitt was quietly positioning himself as a possible candidate for the job. one person close to pruitt told "politico", he is very interested and has expressed it on a number of occasions. he is currently the subject of a dozen open ethics investigation from the government inspector general, the government accountability office and white house management of budget itself. when asked about prugh pit's conduct, hogan gidley said the president feels pruitt has done a good job with deregulation but continues to look into the epa chief's numerous scandals. latest controversy came earlier this week according to "politico." e-mails show the epa exempted oil and gas producers in utah from smog rules. it comes amid regulations of pruitt's ties to energy lobbyists who helped arrange housing and travel for him. joining us from washington once again, senior writer at "roll call" neils leslewski.

good to have you back with us. what strategy are we seeing from the white house as they begin to sift through their candidates and who they will ultimately pick? >> well, ayman, it is good to be back with you. the question i think is really going to be whether or not president trump wants a big social issues fight going into the midterm elections or not. even if the candidate is going to be conservative because they're going to come from this list of folks who were assembled by the federalist society and other conservative groups, there are sort of varying levels of conservatism. that clip that you played just a couple of minutes ago about senator collins up in maine saying her views on whether or not someone would overturn roe v. wade, there are varying degrees of what people have said previously about roe v. wade. mike lee, the republican senator

from utah, is probably more outspoken than most because he's been a lawmaker. so some of the questions that we're going to see are whether or not they really want to make the fight about the social issues to try to bring out the conservative base in november or whether they choose someone who might have more opportunity to get more votes. >> yeah, i guess we'll find out i guess in the next couple of days. i want to quickly turn to the issue of the big trump/putin summit july 16th. trump has reportedly requested that summit, at least a portion of it be a one-on-one with vladimir putin when they first meet. what are the implications of something like that, so secluded just for the two of them? >> well, the challenge obviously is not just in the fact that there might be differing views on what comes out of the meeting. if there's no real record that someone can point to. the other thing that could happen, which would be particularly awkward, would be

if something like r.t. or some russian government-backed quote, unquote, news agency were to have a reporting on the meeting that doesn't line up with what necessarily the white house or president trump believe, it is really hard to refute something in a meeting if there's no one else there. >> yeah, i immediately think of when you were talking about russia today the moment that north korea released the video showing president trump saluting a north korean military general, from their state-controlled media. the president holds another campaign-style rally in montana tonight. what should we expect the president to say or go after? >> so jon tester is the democratic senator up there up for reelection. if you remember, he was particularly -- or rather president trump was particularly annoyed with him over the failed nomination of ronnie jackson to

be the secretary of veterans affairs. so i wouldn't be surprised if dr. jackson's name is invoked, but this will probably be a fairly predictable-looking rally like the one we saw recently in north dakota and some of the other ones that we've seen lately, but obviously tester is particularly disliked or disdained by trump i think seems. >> yeah, good point there. great to have you with us. thanks for getting up early for us. >> thank you. still ahead, we will go live to thailand where efforts are under way to rescue a team of 12 soccer boys and their coach from a flooded cave. they've been stranded now almost two weeks and now there's a new threat on the way. we will have the latest for you. plus, wicked weather here in the states. extreme heat fuelling wildfires across the west and major flooding in parts of the south. bill karins has the forecast. ♪ any object. any surface.

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l welcome back, everyone. now to the frantic effort to

rescue that team of 12 young soccer players trapped in a cave in thailand. a threat of monsoon rains expected to hit the area at the end of this week is forcing rescue teams to come up with alternative plans to free the boys and their soccer coach. nbc's janis mackey frayer joins us live from sigh land. janis, good to have you with us. the boys have been trapped for some 12 days. give us an update on the rescue efforts and the condition of the players and their coach. >> reporter: well, the race against time is now a race against the rain, and rescue workers need to decide how and when they're going to bring these boys and their coach out. it is 12 days now that they've been underground since they went exploring and rain triggered flooding. the water level is said to be down in some parts of the cave system but other parts require skilled diving, and these boys don't even know how to swim. so the concern is that if they don't make a move now they could be stuck in there for months. >> janis --

>> reporter: the boys and their soccer coach appear in good spirits. new video shows them smiling and laughing with thai navy divers. a doctor treats their cuts and one by one they send messages to their families. i'm in good health, he says. another flashes a victory sign. but the boys are also at risk. heavy rains could push water levels higher inside the cave. that threat is forcing thai officials to consider an evacuation soon. the province's governor said if there is a risk, we will not move them out. rescue workers are doing drills, preparing for the moment the boys are brought to the surface, while officials say they're getting a crash course in diving and wearing full face masks. none of them can even swim. we spoke to a diver advising the rescue team who has been inside the cave about the mission. >> reporter: you're not confident they could do it? >> i think they can. i think it is possible.

it is also very, very dangerous choice to make, and it is very easy to go wrong because it takes a little bit of panic and then it will go wrong. >> reporter: he says a safer option may be drilling a hole a half mile down right to the cave so the boys can avoid a risky swim and trek that's at least 2.5 miles to the cave's entrance. some passageways too narrow for scuba gear. around the clock pumping has reduced water levels, but more rain means stronger currents that could cut off access for divers. families watching that new video of the boys are anxious to be reunited. this mother is saying, i'm dying to see him, i miss my son. rescuers have prepared 13 sets of equipment and divers have been taking in supplies in case an evacuation is impossible. they're still continuing to pump water out of the cave, but everyone, of course, is looking to the sky, and the forecast is

calling for rain by the weekend. ayman. >> janis, i know we have been hearing from one of the 33 chilean miners who made headlines after spending 69 days trapped in a cave in chile before being rescued. whatt whatt what advice is he giving to the rescuers or families and kids involved in this? >> reporter: there are similar situations here and certainly comparisons that can be drawn. the chilean miners advising the kids to be strong, to think of their families, to think of the moment when they will be reunited with relatives. this is the sort of thing that's carrying a lot of the families through this ordeal as well. they were elated when the boys were found alive. they've been concerned, knowing they aren't quite yet to safety. they are hoping rescue workers -- that they'll make a move within the next 24 hours. they have this weather window. the conditions may not be

better, but, again, we don't have any update at this point on whether that evacuation is yet to start. ayman. >> absolutely. a race against time. our thoughts and prayers with those families and kids. nbc's janis mackey frayer, thank you very much. speaking of weather, a quick check of weather here at home. we are seeing severe fronts on our end as well, right, bill? >> yes, the houston area is where we were worried about the 4th of july getting rained out and it was close because it did pour. a lot of the festivities, you see where they had the big stage for the music, it was rained out. they were not able to have any of the performers but the rain let up enough they got off the fireworks late last night. it wasn't pretty though. not a 4th to remember in the houston area. we have storms over nebraska this morning. a hit and miss storm in southern portions of iowa. we will see canada sending us some of their cool, canadian air. we appreciate it this time of year. less humid air, too. minneapolis' day improves and

you get better, but the front will trigger storms in chicago today, many areas of the ohio valley. in pennsylvania and western new york you see where the heat remains in the middle of the country and the heat is building in the west. 102 in boise, 100 in salt lake city and phoenix at 114. let's time the cold front. as we go through the day today, the front sinks down. chicago, storms around this afternoon, meaning airport delays. the front makes a run at us in the east coast going through friday. numerous showers and thunderstorms along the front, washington, d.c., philly and boston, best chances of rain 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. and the front clears for the evening ride home going throughout friday, and it sinks into va virginia and areas of the carolinas. it looks better in areas of the east, and less humid. >> good news going into the weekend. thanks for that, bill. still ahead, the first round of tear ofs for u.s. and china

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fight starting tonight at midnight. joining us live from london, what more can you tell us about this looming deadline? >> that's right. so, that big deadline is tomorrow and china is saying instead of imposing the tariffs, they are going to wait for the u.s. to react first. a case of you go first. the bigger picture is that markets are trading in the red overnight. chinese indices down 1% and a lot of concerns there about how these are going to impact economically and pulling out cash from the region and this may change in the next 24 hours. a big dead 00 coline coming up . demanding that they reduce prices and this, of course, has come after that all-important opec meeting where all the producers agreed to increase output by 1 million barrels a

day. hasn't helped the price of barrels that much because of production from iran and venezuela and the national average gas price in the u.s. right now is $2.86 per gallon the highest it has been in four years and it doesn't seem like prices are going down any time soon. >> live for us in london, thank you. still ahead, mike allen has a look at this morning's one big thing. coming up on "morning joe" the republican-only trip to moscow ahead of president trump's summit with president putin. senator ben cardin reacts to the report that the president wants to meet with putin one-on-one with no aides in the room. tom cole joins the conversation and we're live "morning joe"

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welcome back, everyone. joining us now from washington, d.c., the co-founder of axios mike allen. good to have you with us on this thursday morning. what is axios' one big thing? >> how president trump will make his supreme pick. courting trump. so, officials who are involved in the vetting process tell axios the choice for the court is going to come down more to personality than to their record. as with so many things with president trump, what is going to matter is that personal connection. who he feels most comfortable with in the moment. that's why these one-on-one meetings are so vital and he, of course, is looking at the record and briefed him on the politics. but people who are right there with him predict that it is going to be who he feels comfortable with and we see this again and again how he picked

top staff and his vice president and how he relates to world leaders. >> given this may have some feel of audition of sorts, how is that likely to play with the senate as they prefer for a confirmation fight? >> this isn't necessarily the best way to pick a supreme court justice. this is what you hear again and again from the president's aides whether it's tweets or picking a justice, this is just the way he is. we don't try to change him. the president could even jump the gun on his own announcement. the president has said he will announce that pick coming up monday. but aides tell me they wouldn't be surprised if he does it before then. they hope it will be monday because senators will be back in town. you can have them there for the unveiling. everybody will be back from vacation and you get a bigger news pop. but as one aide said to me, who knows when the president has

made his pick and he's ready to go, he wants to go. >> could very possibly be on twitter at some point over the weekend. >> let's switch gears for a moment if the president pulls out from the world trade organization, what are the risks to the world trading order as we know it? >> a brookings expert saying that just this conversation puts the prosperity of the world at risk. what we're hearing now, not just with the possibility of pulling out of the world trade organization, which people in the white house don't expect, but the president keeps asking about it again and again. axios posted the text of a bill that had been drafted at the president's request. it is something that is stuck and it's similar to what he is doing with tariffs and drip by drip we're seeing day by day that some of these things are

hurting the u.s. economy. so, republicans now are so optimistic about 2020. they say he has peace and prosperity. but there are more and more signs that actions the president has taken around the globe could impact not only prosperity in other countries, but also could hurt here and even particularly in trump country where there are a bunch of automobile plants. >> mike a little bit off script here, talking about trade and possibly tariffs, do we expect the president and the white house to follow through on tariffs at midnight. >> no indication they're backing away from that and the next move in this is so high stakes. china could go as far as calling for a boycott on u.s. products. so, we're plunging into the great unknown here. the president's advisors have told him that. but he said, let's go. >> we'll wait and see what happens in a few hours from now.

mike allen, stand by. we'll see you in just a second on "morning joe." and also reading axios am in just a little bit. sign up by going to signkeep up.axios.com. "morning joe" starts right now. well, goodern morning and welcome to "morning joe." it is thursday, july 5th. did you have a nice fourth of july? >> i did. >> we have cady kay and david ignatius and co-founder of axios mike allen. >> we have to start, though. i understand fourth of july for some people, very long weekend. but cady,