my thanks to mosark leibovi. his new book "big game" comes out soon. jonathan cape hart, jen, charlie, thanks. "mtp daily" with chuck todd starts now. if it's monday, it's the unofficial end of summer, which means the official start of the midterm season. good evening, i'm chuck todd here in washington. welcome to a special labor day edition of "mtp daily." you're already been to the picnics and now you're home watching this. welcome to a day that all but starts the final run to the midterms. no matter what happens these midterms of going to make history because they aren't your

ordinary midterms. this is the age of trump. forget the adage that all politics is local, right now all politics is national. typically midterms are referendums on the sitting president, and, well, that is more true than ever this election year. heck, we just saw the governor's race in florida last week get winnowed down to a person that was a trump clone versus a democrat who was an impeachment progressive. it has nothing to do with whether president trump has to stay in office or not, but welcome to 2018. these midterm elections are happening at a moment when the president is facing tremendous legal pressure from a series of federal corruption investigations, which have implicated him while also racking up guilty pleas, indictments and a very high-profile conviction among his associates. voters, especially independents, want a midterm outcome that would provide a check and balance on trump. and the president is trying to

amp up some of his voters by warning of violence if republicans lose the midterms. yes, violence. but he actually also wants to run on impeachment. democrats are signaling their closing strategy will highlight republican corruption under this president. at this moment democrats seem poised to pick up the 23 seats they need to take back the house, as many in their base call for impeachment. but that issue, impeachment, is seen by the president and some of his top advisers as his best hope to rile up the gop base to get out and vote to thwart the looming assault on his presidency. again, no matter which side you're on, it's all about trump. while the president is enormous unpopular with democrats, he has an iron grip on the republican field where he's just as popular as ever. >> help me help president trump drain the swamp and make america great again. thank you! >> i'm working with donald trump to deport dangerous illegal aliens. build the wall and end sanctuary cities. >> i am going to be there to

stand with president donald trump. >> i'll stand with president trump. we'll get tough and we'll build that wall. >> ron loves playing with the kids. >> build the wall. >> he reads stories. >> then mr. trump said you're fired. i love that part. >> if you're a republican, you likely had to cozy up to the president to navigate his sizeable base of what you might call true believers during the primary, but we've seen it time and time again in this cycle of special elections. while trump is a big draw for republican voters, democrats are outperforming pretty much everywhere by double digits, thanks mostly to trump. so katie bar the door, it's going to be a dragout, knockdown and nasty fight in the coming days and weeks and feel like the future of the trump presidency is hanging in the balance, because the future of the trump presidency is hanging in the balance. let's dive in with our all-star labor day panel who will be with us for the hour. former press secretary for john boehner, michael steel.

lee anne caldwell. cornell belcher and nbc news political editor carrie dann. if folks follow our little beginning of special specials versus ends of summer specials, the same foursome is back. cornell, i'm going to let you start this conversation here. the naturalization -- this is a nationalized midterm. it seems as if your side has to make -- maybe it doesn't, but your side has to make a decision, how do you run against trump, how much do you talk about trump, do you do impeachment, where do you do it. all of those things. >> no, i think that's fair. not surprising a midterm is a referendum on the president, right? i think democrats think they have the wind at their backs because you have a president who is -- has a historical disapproval, right? and by the way, i think he's been implicated in two felonies. so that's problematic. so midterms are usually problematic for the president's party. i think this was particularly

problematic. you also have what you referenced earlier is a majority of americans do want a check on the president. the impeachment stuff, i don't think most -- most house democrats aren't running on impeachment. i think you hear some of the base talking about it, but you have a lot of democrats running in suburban districts who are talking a lot more about health care and health care premiums going up for these workers more so than they're talking about impeaching trump. >> and this is an interesting issue. i asked jerrold nadler on the show in august, he would be in line to be chairman of the judiciary committee which would be if an kbeeimpeachment proces began, that's where it would begin. it is clear the word has gone out among leadership, hold back on impeachment. here it is. >> remember, there's a very big difference between a crime which may or may not be impeachable and an impeachable offense which

doesn't have to be a crime. >> so there's some crimes that the president could commit that you would think was not impeachable. >> yes. >> like what, the affairs? campaign finance? >> no, that might because it implicates subverting the election process. >> but you're skeptical it sounds like. >> i don't know. i haven't studied that. certainly i said at the time that perjury with regard to a private sexual affair did not threaten the constitution and was a crime but not an impeachable offense. >> so here's president trump. he loves talking about impeachment. >> i don't know how you can impeach somebody who's done a great job. i'll tell you what, if i ever got impeached, i think the market would crash. i think everybody would be very poor. because without this thinking, you would see -- you would see numbers that you wouldn't believe in reverse. >> so is impeachment a great tool for the trump base? >> impeachment is what will happen if house democrats win the majority in 2018. >> you say that as fact.

do you believe that is fact? >> i don't know. impeachment will be a hard barrier to come across. republicans on the hill they say the only thing that we can get critical of the president on is if there's collusion. and not that republicans are going to matter in this process in the house component, but it's going to be hard to criticize their base -- >> we're talking about impeachment, not conviction. >> that's an interesting -- >> the house democrats will pass articles of impeachment. >> so you think they're going to do it no matter what. >> absolutely. >> there's going to be oversight. >> what the leadership is saying right now, they're just flat-out lying, they're going impeach. >> and they know that. that lawyerly parsing from nadler, that's not going fly in a democratic caucus meeting, that's not going to fly at a town hall or a convention or a speech. if you are staring at a sea of pink hats, you can't give that, well, on one hand -- >> do you say from your

experience from tea party days with john boehner? >> this feels like the discussion over the committee on benghazi. you try going on fox news or going to a tea party rally and explaining the committees of jurisdiction have really looked into this and don't need a special -- that doesn't work. >> a hearing is also different than impeachment. they'll start investigations immediately, but it's also going to depend on how many members they win the house by. if it's by two or three, impeachment will be a much harder argument than if it's by 16 or 20. >> if they win by two or three, impeachment won't be possible because we'll be arguing over who is the next speaker for the next two years. >> and the voters who would lead to that democratic majority aren't necessarily the pink hat types. they might be more moderate, suburban women, professional women, white voters who decided i've had enough of trump but not necessarily enough to impeach

him but enough that i want a little bit of check and balance and i want more working together. to cornell's point, the ads out there from house democrats not only don't mention impeachment, a lot of them don't mention trump at all. they are talking about health care action they're talking about jobs and economy. these are swing districts where the candidates say i'll work with anybody as long as it's good for the district and not mentioning the president at all. >> the president has a way of so inserting himself into everything, even if you think you can somehow dodge it. and i think that that's the part of this as much as we think we know -- everybody thinks they know how their campaign will go in the next 60 days, do we? >> that's why we don't have to mention president trump in our ads. >> you think it's baked in and the press will cover the crazy. >> it is baked in and he is asserting himself. every week there's a new thing. democrats wouldn't spend a $100 million on better advertising anti-trump advertising than what trump just did the other day with mccain. we don't have to advertise on that. >> this is like trying to ignore

the octopus on the dining room table. he's pervasive in every district. >> it's just that hard to ignore. >> it's still family thanksgiving. >> pretty interesting. >> let me put up -- you talked about the investigations. there's already been a list that republicans have come up with of likely investigations. it's pretty exhaustive, starting with the trump tax returns and trump family businesses to stuff in the administration, family separation issues, the epa issue, puerto rico. it could be just an investigation nightmare for the trump administration. >> yeah, absolutely. and these are the things that republicans have been telling trump for months and almost two years now, you need to get in line, don't attack republicans, because if democrats win, this is what's going to be your next two years. but yeah, you can do a lot of damage to trump and to the republican party without opening impeachment hearings. and the investigations are going

to be their key and that's going to be a huge messaging tool for democrats. >> if -- i still look at what happened in florida. and this is a governor's race, cornell, a governor's race that has nothing to do with the future donald trump. though politically which party wins the florida governorship, it is florida the swing who decides our presidential elections. how do you handle -- what do you do with that energy? like they clearly -- it's energized over getting rid of the guy, whatever that means. >> right. but it's changed, right? i think you're seeing a lot of the candidates, like in florida, the candidate that most represents change, i think those candidates are what will do well. when you look at -- if 2016 was the year of the sort of angry rural voter uprising, i think 2018 is the year of the angry suburban mom uprising. the year that the suburban mom strikes back, right? and when you look at where democrats have been

overperforming, it's in these districts that once upon a time have been fairly reliably republican and a lot of women who have been leaning republican, they are now leaning democrat. i'd like to say it's because of great messaging about democrats we're doing but they're leaning as democrat out of repulse -- about being repulsed out of what they're seeing out of washington and donald trump. >> so it's the year of the angry suburbanite. >> well, house republicans are still winning these elections. they are 8-1 in this cycle. >> districts that trump won by 20. >> if you look at powing in hillary heavy voter districts with republican congressmen, all of those public polls show kauffman, curbelo, are all doing very, very well. let's remember that a number of republican senators won their states running substantially double digits ahead of donald trump in 2016. >> all right, guys, i'm going to pause it here.

trust me, we have more time for this because it's trump. he impacts every little campaign we'll ending up talking about so you guys are with us through the hour. coming up, primary colors. is a blue wave really ahead or will the president's promise of a red wave wash away democratic party chances of taking the house? rty chances of taking the house? gonna be late! we're gonna be late, we're hold on, don't worry, there's another way [siri: *beep beepá] directions to the greek theater. ♪ can i get a connection? can i get can i get a connection? ♪ ♪ i can see it in my, see it in my reflection. ♪ ♪ ohhh can i get a connection? ♪ tryna find the old me our mission is to provide complete, balanced nutrition... for strength and energy! whoo-hoo! great-tasting ensure. with nine grams of protein and twenty-six vitamins and minerals. ensure. now up to 30 grams of protein for strength and energy!

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they keep talking about this blue wave. why would that be a blue wave? >> big blue wave. >> a blue wave. >> blue wave. >> wave. >> blue wave. >> blue wave. >> blue wave. >> blue wave. >> blue wave. >> the blue wave. >> blue wave. >> everybody wants you to say a blue wave. >> blue wave. >> what is the blue wave? >> okay. i found that amusing. welcome back. so are we on a blue wave watch? that's the question on everyone's mind as we inch closer to november. all 435 house seats are up for grabs this november. every two years, that's the way it works. democrats need to flip 23 republican seats to take the

speaker's gavel and they could end up netting a lot more. in fact they could argue anything less than 30 probably wouldn't be a great night at this point. so how will -- how will we know as the results start coming in on election night if we're looking at a narrow takeover for democrats or a full-blown tsunami? we'll watch a few of these races. first, the majority maker races. kentucky's 6th congressional district, lexington, kentucky, that's our best predictor of house control. former marine fighter pilot, amy mcgrath versus andy barr. if mcgrath can knock out of barr in lexington, kentucky, democrats should have a good shot at taking the house. and then there's your blue wave type of seats. well, one that would be your tsunami watch, wisconsin's 1st congressional district, the seat that speaker paul ripe is vacating. his former aide, bryan steil, is

the republican nominee against populist democratic ironworker randy bryce. if bryce wins, we will be in blue wave territory. the panel is back. so, carrie, we've been -- everybody always asks us give me the one race that's this. it's hard to do one, but we came up with the kentucky 6 and another one would be the des moines seat in iowa, iowa 3. in the past those are the seats that become majority makers. >> right. >> those are the first -- usually the first ones to flip when control flips. >> kentucky 6 also closer to the east coast, which we'll all be watching that night. >> it's an early poll close which is why it's an early bellwether. what makes these seats sort of permanent swing? >> well, in both of these cases you have an urban area, not a huge urban area, kiend of a mix of a small city an suburbs outside of it. democrats are animated by what we are talking about in the first block about they're angry

at donald trump and there are candidates that have managed to find themselves early. amy mcgrath, a veteran, a woman, she sort of went viral very early in her campaign. if you were watching tv at all in that district, you know who she is and attempts to discredit her from outside groups might fall a little flat. talking about randy bryce and those blue wave races, you have candidates who may be vulnerable to those opposition research attacks. randy bryce is one of them. you're seeing the congressional leadership fund trying to define democratic candidates but they're having to reach further and further out to knock off individual candidates because voex like amy mcgrath, people already know who they are. >> you mentioned wisconsin, the other district we put on is washington 5, spokane, washington, kathy mcmorris-rogers. in 1994 the then speaker of the house was a democrat named tom

foley who represented the 5th congressional district in washington in spokane. he lost that night and it was the symbolic loss of the night. there's some concern that cathy mcmorris rodgers is in that trap. >> there is concern about her. she doesn't seem to be as strong of a candidate as they would like her to be. and she's a member of leadership so that would be a huge loss. another race i want to pay attention to is claudia tenney in upstate new york. she's been trying to outtrump trump and aides working with her say it's going to be a very bad night for republicans if she loses that race, so that's another one that i do want to watch. >> well, for instance, all those central and new york races have also always been on the fulcrum of the majority party has them. democrats had them in '06 and '08, republicans got them in '10 and '14. >> i was going to add one more thing. the thing that republicans i talk to are most concerned about

are some of these safe republican districts that incumbents are having to run in who have not had a serious challenger for years. they forgot how to raise money, they forgot how to campaign, and so those are some of these red districts that they're actually worried about, not just the moderate ones. >> and that's where i think, because when you look at 2006, when i was governor dean's pollster at the party, when you look at sort of where we really had a surge and took back the house, it wasn't the top tier sort of top target seats, right. it was that wave of seats that were second tier with a lot of candidates that quite frankly incumbents hadn't seen a race before. when we look at the northeast, and i hear you in kentucky. i actually had a client who we told not to run in kentucky because it was such a strong candidate there in that primary. but when you look at the northeast corridor, i think that's where you're going to see early on there's a lot of seats in new jersey, where you have republicans sitting there. >> open seats too. >> and open seats.

i think you will see early on if there's going to be a wave. >> michael steele, without all these open seats, republicans -- this is the most republican house open seats i think in a generation. >> right. >> if not for that, i don't think everybody would be so confident that democrats are favored to win the house. >> i look at it the other way. i look at it everybody republican that's running, nobody is sleep walking. >> you don't think you have them? >> i do not. >> every single week at conference, they have been -- >> they bang the gong all yore. >> and nobody is sleep walking anymore. there was some guys at the beginning of the year i had that concern about. right now every republican running know they face the race of their live an they know it's a new and completely different environment. but even the democratic candidates who are trying to define themselves as different still have that label, still have that letter at the end of their name. the democratic party of today is not the democratic party of 2006. in 2006 they would let candidates run pro gun, pro

life, in districts -- >> connor lamb ran at pro gun. >> sort of. >> he did. >> but connor lamb didn't have to go through a primary. no democrat will get through a primary who's shooting an ar-15 in his campaign ads. so the democratic party is different than 2006 and talking about open borders, taking away people's tax cuts, all of that will work very well against these candidates. >> what can the republican house do in september that would at all help their incumbents? is there something they can do? >> avoid a government shutdown. >> pass round two of taxes, make permanent. >> give them something to sell. >> do you think it matters? >> taxes matter that much the last time around? we would be seeing more of that in campaign ads. >> to that point, the tax cuts are hurting republicans. if you look at the tax cuts right now are underwater in their approval. if you look at what republicans have been focused on in their time in power, they have not

been focused on anything the american people have said we absolutely want this. >> the washington democrats plan to raise taxes aren't exactly popular either. >> the idea that we're going to raise taxes on the wealthy so we can pay for things that empower the middle class, i like that. >> we're collectively going to ending this segment together. i'm going to put your dave wasserman. his sign you're in a danger of a wave. number one, your voters aren't turning out. is that a full-flej check for the gop? >> i think that's why the president is so active. >> your incumbents are getting outraised. the other party has candidates in in virtually all 435 districts. and you keep waiting for things to, quote, get better, and they don't. 2010, mirror image 2018. i'll let you defend that. >> i had this terrible quicksand feeling throughout the autumn of 2006 and i don't have it right now. i don't have it yet because our candidates know what they're

doing, because the infrastructure that has helped us win the majority in the house for nearly the past decade is sharp and effective. >> look, the biggest difference is george w. bush dug a hole and disappeared and tried to help out the republicans that way. this unpopular president is going straight -- >> but i'm going to be contrarian and taking a little bit of your side on this. what's different between this president and george bush, the base of this party sticks with this president the way they did not energize around george bush. >> also people know that their local republican candidate is not donald trump. whatever you dislike about the trump administration has nothing to do with congressman jones or smith. >> perhaps the incumbent, but these new candidates, that's a different story. anyway, we're going to pause here. you guys are still sticking around. up next, we've come up with the perfect place for anyone who's over the hill. and i'm obsessed with it. and still ahead, we'll turn to the senate. what are the chances of any kind of blue flipping there? we'll discuss it with the

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welcome back. tonight i'm obsessed with labor day and just how many lawmakers plan to give up the labor part. three senators, orrin hatch, bob corker and jeff flake, are retiring from the senate this year and more than 30 house members are retiring, including the speaker of the house, paul ryan. can you find him in there, by

the way? he's in there somewhere, just like waldo. now that they're retiring, though, those folks have all the freedom in the world to now say anything they want about washington. and none of the power to do anything about it. perhaps there should be a special place just for them. >> you've worked hard, paid your dues, represented your constituents for years. now you're finally ready for retirement and to speak your mind. >> hi there, i'm tv's chuck todd. i've spent my whole career covering washington politics. but i've been busy with another idea too. introducing the pines at congressional village. a new community tailor mademade f for your post political career. got something to say? say it. who cares? who nor tough questions. no more pandering for donations.

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welcome back to this special

midterm madness labor day edition of "mtp daily." all of the marquee senate races this year are now set. we now know where the biggest battlefields are going to be. democrats need to pick up two senate seats to win control. it's an extraordinarily tough prospect for them. even though it's only two, they're defending a whopping 26 seats compared to the republicans defending just nine and ten of those democratic incoumbents are in states president trump won in 2016. let's dig into where things stand right now. the panel is back. leigh anne caldwell, michael steele, cornell belcher and carrie dann. what's interesting about these senate races is in this gigantic wave year, it is really possible democrats could win 40 to 50 house seats and republicans could pick up two senate seats. >> yeah. and it's because of the map. republicans are confident that they're going to keep the senate and they might even pick up a seat or two. >> the confidence level is unbelievable. >> yeah, it really is. it's just a different map

between the house and the senate. >> it's a really red map. >> this has been one of those weird -- the senate is divided up into three buckets of cycles. well, let's subtract six years. 18 down to 12. that was barack obama's re-election, they ended up winning two senate seats out of nowhere. north dakota was the big get there. 2006, a wave year. 2000, while bush wins, democrats pick up four senate seats. this same cycle, they keep picking up seats, carrie, and, you know, and now they're -- now they're at a point where there's no way they can keep picking up again in this cycle. >> there's a couple of unique things. not just that they're red states, but there are policy issues that will make a big difference. the biggest to me is tariffs. in montana, in wisconsin, in missouri, in all of these -- in almost all of these red states there is either an industry or an agricultural issue that tariffs could really hurt republican voters who would otherwise be inclined to like trump. now, all of the anecdotal evidence from all of those

people are most of those voters are saying, yeah, this might hurt me but i'm still going to stick with the president. this might have an impact on me. but those -- i think that those red state senators, those democrats who have a really strong personal brand, that's not joe donnelly, but that might be jon tester, right, they might make some inroads and say i can prove to you how this has been negative for you. i understand that you like the president, i'm going to work with him to mitigate the impact of these tariffs on your lives. >> it is a tough map. but when you look at some of our wins on recruiting, like in tennessee, right, this is a seat that usually wouldn't be in play at all, right? a very popular former governor there, democrat, running for that senate seat. all of a sudden republicans have to spend money there they probably didn't have to spend before. in arizona, right, a state that when you look at arizona and look at nevada, i say go west, young democrat, because the future is for democrats is out west. and you do have democrats

making -- chipping away at the red wall out best. >> michael, in an alternative universe where hillary clinton is president, republicans are wondering if they can get 60 senate seats totally. >> they were not just red states, these are really, really red states. >> west virginia, north dakota, missouri now which is leaning more like a dakota than a swing state. >> and even some of the ones that should be a tighter contest like nelson in florida has the stench of doom about him. this is not a race democrats are going win and they ought to at least be competitive in it. they're going to spend a ton of money to prop him up. >> i don't think you should write of a him yet. >> and i think gillum is going to be a potential asset. we have a nice little map here, carrie and mark, this is where democrats have outspent republicans. those states are in blue. where the two parties are the same there in the yellow so indiana, missouri, montana. democrats have outspent the republicans. nevada, north dakota, west virginia is an even split.

and arizona, florida, new jersey and wisconsin have been advantage republicans. what do you make out of any of this? i think the most curious thing to me is the fact that florida is a defensive seat. almost all of the defenses, democrats have outspent the republicans but not rick scott. >> because rick scott has a ton of money to spend. i think what's interesting actually is the wisconsin. republicans, you know -- republicans think that they have a very good chance of winning wisconsin and so they're spending a lot of money there. >> with president hillary clinton, i think they do. that's the question, i don't know now. >> they spent a lot of money early and are continuing to spend a lot of money there. i think they think wisconsin is a good pickup seat. north dakota, though, everyone is putting money into that game but to republicans, that's a number one pickup. >> it's so funny, cornell and michael, i'll talk to republicans and that race is over. it's done. you talk to democrats and

they're like we've got the better candidate. it's amazing. usually the two parties, yeah, no, no, no, missouri is this way. the disagreement about north dakota is something else. >> yeah, and i feel like there's not a lot of data about it is part of the problem. it's not -- the one on that list that i think is the most interesting to me is new jersey. new jersey shouldn't be on that list. >> it's on there for one reason, the corruption of bob menendez. >> and everyone in the state of new jersey knows bob menendez and everyone knows him for exactly the wrong reason and that's one that could be -- that shouldn't be on the table and it's on the table. >> and the blue wave saves him, right? >> i think the blue wave certainly -- certainly helps him, right. but look at arizona. i'll double down on this, right. you have those states out west that demographically they're changing. >> i was worried about arizona until last week. as soon as mcsally got the nomination -- >> but you have a race that's basically a toss-up. also in texas right now, which we haven't mentioned either, right, so all of a sudden republicans have to spend money in texas and tennessee and

arizona and a lot of these states to defend in a way that's unusual, i will say that. >> the texas thing, look, i think a lot of us weren't believing, weren't believing. you know a tell when a group goes in and club for growth suddenly is putting in some big numbers now on beto. cruz didn't want to admit he's vulnerable. >> he doesn't want to put in his own money and you don't want really a party-affiliated money but club for growth is the perfect group to put money in there. texas is one example of this where worst case scenario for democrats they don't win that seat but buoy a bunch of house candidates. >> i like the fact that ted cruz has a race because that's going to make him work and help all of our down ballot -- culverson, sessions, a lot of our house republican candidates. >> but at the end of the day, jennifer duffy and i have talked about this. we get stuck on the fact that history says you don't have a

divergent -- you don't have a wave and somehow the other party picks up senate seats, cornell. and yet we are staring at this map. part of me thinks like we're going to wake up, oh, democrats held and picked up a seat. maybe we should have remembered the wave's the wave. >> i think democrats will pick up a seat in the senate. if you're sitting there, what you want to do is put as many -- you want to put as many seats in play. >> there's another seat we haven't talked about here, mississippi. >> oh, my gosh. >> we forgot about ole mississippi. >> again, a seat where democrats say, i think there's a shot there. we're going to make them spend money, putting as many seats in play and see what happens. >> democrats could -- >> it is a lot of money. >> it's a cheap state. >> democrats could pick up a state, but they also will lose states as well and that's the thing. it comes down to -- >> no way they sweep those red states. >> right, they can't do it. it comes down to trump's base still being behind the president regardless of the tariffs and if

they are able to keep these democrats from -- >> but that doesn't help a state like wisconsin where he does not have a majority. there's not a majority support for donald trump in a state like wisconsin. how do you pick up there? >> i'm convinced if joe donnelly and bill nelson win, democrats have picked up senate seats. if both of them don't win, i don't know how they pick up senate seats. michael, leigh anne, cornell, carrie, you're sticking around. coming up, the midterm forecast with a russia cloud hanging over the white house. hanging over the white house eats at every meal ♪ ♪ he holds your house in the palm of his hand ♪ ♪ he's your home and auto man ♪ big jim, he's got you covered ♪ ♪ great big jim, there ain't no other ♪ -so, this is covered, right? -yes, ma'am. take care of it for you right now. giddyup! hi! this is jamie. we need some help.

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welcome back. it has been an incredibly rough couple of months for the president. july and august were just not kind to him. his campaign manager, paul manafort, was found guilty. his lawyer and fixer, michael cohen, pleaded guilty. his one-time allies are seemingly abandoning him. but for all intents and purposes, the president's approval rating didn't budge. his approval rating is 44% in the latest nbc news/"wall street journal" poll down just a point from july. the recent developments with manafort and cohen aren't directly related to the russia probe but stemmed from the special counsel's ongoing investigation. will voters care about any of it when they go to the polls in november? outside of the court of law, does the russia investigation matter? okay. i guess i don't want to make the conversation too short, but does anybody -- let's reverse it. how does the russia investigation matter? what happens that makes it

matter, if it does end up mattering? >> it doesn't unless there's proof of collusion before the midterms. >> unless there's some report that we know about. >> even if it does, i think it's a marginal increase in democratic turnout maybe. i think people's are baked. people know what they think about this. >> i think it is not changing. >> i think it's baked in but it's also baked in in a way that's not helpful. he's at 44 and it's unchanged. that's not a good thing, right? and this is what i talked about earlier. the base of the republican party sticks around this guy the way they didn't around george bush. his 44 isn't going to move. that's not necessarily a good position. this is where i think it sticks because it's the drip, drip, drip, drip, drip that's already baked in with these suburban women. >> for what it's worth, by the way, for what it's worth even in the same poll that the president didn't prove, when we asked has the president been honest and truthful about the mueller probe, 56% say no, carrie. that's a lot. that's more than the democratic base. >> and what's most interesting

about that to me is i think there's so much certainty among democrats the answer to that question is no, republicans are a little softer. and when we asked -- we asked a similar question. we said, okay, these guilty pleas among trump associates, does that necessarily mean that trump himself could be involved? democrats are convinced, 7 in 10 say there's a direct link. only 46% of republicans say he definitely has nothing to do with this. >> there are republican who say do believe he probably did something. >> but that's not an issue for any republican candidate not named donald j. trump except dana rohrabacher. but those are problems, those are issues that are unique to donald j. trump. >> if trump is saying i'm going spend 40 days on the campaign trail and campaign for all of these individual candidates, you're sitting in traffic going to the polls on election day and if you have a couple of doubts about whether trump might be implicated in this, maybe he's not as honest, you might not sit in traffic if you're a

republican because he's not on the ballot. >> that's the kind of -- the double challenge here. one, you have to have the president nationalizing this race to get his voters to the polls, but also people remembering, people who don't like the president remembering that my remembering my congressman is not president trump and i like him, or my senator. >> this is where republicans are stuck, right? in nationalized election this year, it absolutely helps democrats. at the same time, there is no chance you hold onto anything if they don't nationalize it and revv up the base or their party. the base of the party don't belong to republicans anymore, they belong to donald trump. let's talk about the brett kavanaugh confirmation hearings. leanne, i think we joked about before, had mitch mcconnell taken chuck schumer's advice and delayed until after the election, i'm guessing some would have freaked out. now, october 5th or 6th when

ever they confirm him does that cement heidi's chance for the election? >> i think it helps. this will be a difficult vote for these members. polling in the states are 50/50. people already decided what they think of kavanaugh. it helps people who might be more skeptical of trump. okay. heidi is still with us and won't go too far with schumer. >> i keep wondering if kavanaugh gets more senate democratic votes because of gorsuch. you don't have the unfairness thing. if i'm a red state democrat. >> gorsuch got 58. >> look at the polling around kavanaugh, he is the most

unpopular nominee we have seen in some time. i don't think suburban moms are sitting around saying, you know what,i will determine my vote on how the senator votes on kavanaugh. >> i don't know. >> i think we put too much weight on that. >> the importance of the list of voters in 2016 -- >> turned out to be a bigger deal than some. >> well, for your base. >> very interesting. we'll pick this last piece of the conversation up next in "the lid." lid. you've got a good record and liberty mutual won't hold a grudge by raising your rates over one mistake. you hear that, karen? liberty mutual doesn't hold grudges... how mature of them. for drivers with accident forgiveness liberty mutual won't raise their rates because of their first accident. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty ♪

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time now for "the lid." we will do a little post election prognostication. the last time on memorial day we thought, okay, a fun out, who should be the favorite to be the next speaker of the house. i thought it would be a good out question. who should be the favorite to be the next speaker of the house, not you think. >> starting with me, crowley. mcarthur. >> crowley. >> crowley. >> three crowleys and an mccarthy. well, what happened this summer between memorial day and labor day. joe crowley is looking for a job and tim mccarthy.

we didn't go to the north carolina remap. leanne, it feels as of as unlikely as nancy pelosi seemed to be the next speaker of the house and for lots of other reasons, partially because crowley is not there, who will challenge her and stop her from getting the gavel if democrats win the majority? >> the only way someone other than nancy pell hosi is the next speaker of the house if democrats win is if nancy pelosi decides not to run. there might be a tim ryan if he decides not to run for president. >> he's running for president. >> i know. >> not too many people are so it shouldn't be a crowded field. > don't see anyone doing a legitimate challenge to pelosi. >> politically, what do we make of it? >> you do hear grumblings.

pelosi is a strong leader and if you come for her you better get her. >> you better have the votes. >> you better have the votes. >> i will be getting an angry phone call after. >> there's been talk about clyburn, who would also be an historic figure as speaker of the house. i think she's hard to beat. >> what did you make of clyburn's decision he was interested in the speakership. >> i think that says more about clyburn and that nancy pelosi. >> there's two chance, a vote on the caucus and on the floor. a lot of candidates saying no votes on pelosi will vote against her in the caucus and when the candidate of the caucus, vote candidate on the floor. this is closed door, this is live on tv. the first vote all new democrats from swing districts will take live on national tv is breaking their word to constituents, that's not going to play well. >> let me ask the question this

way. is pelosi's chances better or worse if the pick up is more than 40 seats? >> i think better. >> yeah. it's better. >> her problem is the narrower the majority the harder this vote is, fair? >> if they don't win back the house, good-bye. >> that's it. >> the millions of dollars tying every single democrat candidate to pelosi ends up saying, hey. >> we asked that in the "wall street journal," what's your biggest fear? it was literally tied. people are just as offended by pelosi or trump, depending how you ask the question. >> there's a reason she's still in our ads, people still don't like her. >> she's less of a boogeyman that donald trump is, that's the problem, right. she may not be more popular but she is more popular than donald trump and not as known as donald trump. >> she's less popular than donald trump. >> intensity. all right. you guys will debate that the

next two months and we'll find out on election day if you're right. thank you all. enjoy. that's all for tonight. more on "tb daily," enjoy the rest of your labor day. see you tomorrow. of your labory see you tomorrow >> tonight, we have a special edition of "the beat" on labor day confirming donald trump is one of the most unpopular presidents ever, yet the paradox he is everywhere dividing and sweeping across culture ranging from alec baldwin and chrissy teigen, going after national football players for protests of the national anthem and criticized those who have their own leadership styles from