to this point but we have two more years of the presidency, maybe four more years, they're betting on somebody his people don't think will be steady until the end. >> may not be in charge the second half of the first term. thanks. that does it for our hour. "mtp daily" starts now. hi, chuck. >> we are getting wet here. prepare yourself. >> that big wet storm the president warned us about. >> lots of water, very wet. very wet. if it's tuesday, the president is breasting for hurricane florence. good evening. i am chuck todd in washington. welcome to "mtp daily." a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane is bearing down on the east coast with a

direct hit likely in the carolinas. the storm comes as the commander in chief faces his own serious questions from his own circle about fitness for office and ability to manage the government. the president and vice president met with the fema administrator brock long and secretary of homeland security. the president began by assuring the country the white house is prepared to handle a potentially historic natural disaster. >> we are totally prepared, we're ready. we're as ready as anybody has ever been. it looks to me and looks to all of a lot of very talented people that do this for a living like this is going to be a storm that's going to be a very large one, far larger than we have seen in perhaps decades. in the way and in the most jeopardy would be virginia, north carolina, south carolina, that area. and again, they haven't seen anything like what's coming at us in 25, 30 years, maybe ever.

it is tremendously big and tremendously wet. >> then the president was asked about what happened in puerto rico where nearly 3,000 people died, despite the initial assessment that puerto rico dodged a catastrophe. here's what the president said when the question was asked what the white house and fema had learned from the ordeal in puerto rico. >> what lesson do we take from what happened in puerto rico? how do we apply the lessons we took from puerto rico. >> well, i think puerto rico was incredibly successful. puerto rico was actually our toughest one of all because it's an island. i actually think it was one of the best jobs that's ever been done with respect to what this is all about. the problem with puerto rico is their electric grid and electric generating plant was dead before the storms ever hit. i think that puerto rico was an incredible unsung success. i think in a certain way the best job we did was puerto rico,

but nobody would understand that. we have gotten a lot of thanks for the job we've done in puerto rico. puerto rico was very important. >> as you might have imagined, those comments have sparked a bit of response. here is chuck schumer who called the president's remarks offensive, hurtful and blatantly false. they come as this president tries to gain control of a white house operation that at times seems like it is trying to protect the country from the president's wins. bob woodward put it a few days ago. >> you look at the operation of this white house, and you have to say let's hope to god we don't have a crisis. >> well, we have a crisis, it is coming ashore named florence. carol, i'll start with you.

look, this is an important moment for the country, for the carolinas. the president needs to be on top of this. he can't afford not to look on top of this. they know this. and he's already sort of wift with the puerto rico remark. >> this is the kind of thing people that work inside the white house get extremely frustrated about. here he is, as you said, this is potentially a disaster, catastrophe for many americans. there's that piece of it. politically it gives him from white house perspective an out from some of all of the attention on the woodward book. >> hate to say it, a reprieve from it. >> it is an opportunity. and then they send him out there to give a very specific statement. on one hand saying we're as prepared as we could possibly be. and puerto rico went great.

you can't get your head around those statements and think that you can be confident that he is going to respond in a way people can feel comfortable about when he can't let any criticism go. puerto rico did not go well. that's not necessarily something people dispute, yet he can't even give a little bit on that or find an answer that would get around going directly at the question. >> i don't think anybody thinks the president caused the problems in puerto rico but it is the tone deafness that i think is probably going to bother a lot of people. >> i think it was the level of lack of responsiveness. there's a lot of that. when you say that 3,000 people died, 300,000 displaced, 240 schools closed, some people still don't have electricity, that did not go well. >> by the way, there's another storm on a track i think, isaac, thank you, that there's concern this could hit, even as a mild

storm. >> and they're still not prepared. if another major storm hits puerto rico tomorrow, they would not be prepared. for him not to level with the american people when we actually know the facts, that's where it is dislodged from folks even supporting him to this point, saying we need you to talk to us straight. >> brad, i assume as somebody that advises people on the ballot in 2018, you want the president to be president, don't make comments. >> cancelled campaign events to focus on the storm which both parties should give him credit for. >> a no brainer. >> you're only as good in a hurricane as your governors are. if your governors have their act together, state emergency management procedures are in place, the president looks good. if they don't, the president looks bad. if i'm the president, i'm on the phone with all four governors today. >> i think he was. and that is, you're absolutely right, it is the relationship

between the governor and the federal government, that's when the problems fall on the president. >> you look at what the white house has done logistically, they're checking the right boxes. in some ways this white house was ahead of where the obama administration was at this point in his presidency in terms of how early the president would show up, maintaining contacts, things like that. but it's him. they can only set him up so much. we have seen you can have that apparatus around him, and -- >> i think part of the challenge is even when you talk to the fema administrator brock long, he said we are not ready. we have not learned the lessons and applied them what happened in the storms of 2017 collectively. for the president to say this is -- first of all, this is cataclysmic. we don't know if we're prepared. we have been working our hearts out, it is a different pivot. >> it feels like in some ways it sort of confirms the point that the woodward book seems to make and that the anonymous op-ed

makes, there are a lot of competent people around the president. no doubt about it. it is when he gets involved it creates problems. >> i think he certainly thrives on a different kind of environment politically than people in official washington are used to. i think you see that. >> polite way to put it. >> i would take issue with the florida storms of 2017. i think the hurricane that hit florida worked out great. the governor, the evacuations went great, power was back on quickly. >> what the administrator was referring to, there are so many storms collectively, the federal government is still trying to figure out how to collectively deal with those storms. one can say what happened in puerto rico was that it was at the end of the storm season, that that's one of the reasons the systems were exhausted. >> and infrastructure was not there locally. >> one thing that florida doesn't ever get impacted by as much as i think we'll hear is flooding. that was a huge problem in houston. this storm, it is not the

initial hit, it is the aftermath that will be the potential catastrophe here. >> talking about you have the administration and then congress hasn't done anything since last year either in terms of looking at what lessons you can possibly learn, where they may need, what things we can do differently now. i think you're absolutely right. all of the reporting shows that this will be a storm there's a hit and then the aftermath. and it is the aftermath that's going to be devastating. >> you know, when this day began with donald trump jr. talking about the woodward book and op-ed, i want to play a little of it. it feeds into this is an odd moment for the white house, and maybe a relief in some ways. take a listen. >> i imagine this is a very low level person, pretty disgusting, perhaps a disgruntled person thrown out because they didn't deliver what they were supposed to do. i think they're subverting the will of the people. to try to subvert the

presidency. i think there are people he can trust, it is a smaller group than i would like it to be. >> who do you trust? >> i'll keep that to myself. >> brad, he is saying what kellyanne conway did not say sunday, and what others have not said, which is there are few people the president trusts that work for him. this is a moment he better hope everybody that works for him even that he doesn't trust wants to do the job well. >> i think that's correct. i think hurricanes and natural disasters bring that ound t in whatever side you're on. >> sort of becomes real. >> correct. >> your job becomes real. >> i also think that the response to the "new york times" op-ed, problem with this administration should have gone something like this. i told you, i told you this town is a swamp, i told you it is deep, deep in our own party. i'm the only thing standing between you. that would be on trump brand had he done that. >> then you don't talk about it any more, do you? >> exactly. >> that would have been on his

brain, it would have been effective with a large section of the country. >> what's donald trump jr. doing on television? when i first saw this, i'll be honest, you see certain things, oh, abc staked him out. good for them. and he responded to shouted questions. you're like really? you're in the midst of an investigation by mueller, really? >> some ways maybe the apple doesn't fall far from the tree and he can't help himself. he's also seeing increasing -- seen increasingly as a political figure. possibly thought this might be a good thing to do at this moment. >> is he popular with the base. >> if you need a candidate. >> he would be a big draw. >> your candidates brought him out? >> not this cycle yet. he would be a big draw. the republican primary voting base thinks that donald trump is a big insurance policy against

both parties in washington. that's just a fact. they have been dissatisfied with what they've gotten in the last 10, 12 years, overlaps the past obama administration. they were looking for something different and for an insurance policy, they knew what they were getting with donald trump. he hasn't surprised anyone from the presidential campaign process. they weighed all of it. and therefore, shouldn't be surprising to people that the republican voters are very confident that he is the insurance policy. >> i think you see that with -- i am stunned, it is clear nobody communicates in this trump family because i assume politically nobody would give political advice, you know what a good idea, donald trump jr., do gma. >> that's basics. when you have some sort of legislative office, everybody basically talks to each other. you have a chief of staff that knows what everybody is doing and communications director charged with everybody's -- all the surrogates talking on an issue. that currently isn't happening.

complete chaos. >> and that's just not how this functions. and you have, we've seen it from the beginning, everyone is kind of their own operator in this, and you know, there isn't just in the sense there isn't a lot of communication among people that work for donald trump, it is that you can see a similar parallel with family. >> i want to play a clip from what ben sasse said to me sunday. i am curious if this is an issue with independent voters. take a listen. >> it is pretty clear this white house is a reality show, soap opera presidency. the drama of omarosa and cohen and manafort and drama of the woodward quotes and drama of the op-eds, what you would like is the president to not worry about the short term of staffing but long term vision casting for america, pull us together as a people. right now feels like there's way too much drama and that distracts us from longer term stuff we should be focused on

together. >> brad, are you concerned of your candidates, of center right independents going i'm tired of the drama. >> with independents this year there's one big dynamic. that is when you ask them to vault the president and administration in -- evaluate the president and administration or party thing in a vacuum, they'll salining a little left. when you say who do you want in charge of government, nancy pelosi, chuck schumer, it is a 15 point gap how fast they swing. >> the sentiment is anti-trump behavior, but they're not pro-democrat. >> for independent voters, separate from republicans, they judge trump first whether they pusher he was, and when it is them against democrats, it is on a different scale. >> i think whoever is running in that district, for example. look at what happened with connor lamb. he won in a district trump won by 20 points, as a democrat, talking local issues. >> but he wanted to be sure he

culturally fit the district. >> and he also went after the establishment democratic party and republicans in that district said you know what, i am tired of the drama. maybe this person can settle it down. >> and trump voters, they don't like either party. in some ways connor lamb figured that out, too. >> that's the calculation, a wave of democrats localizing to culture. there will be a fight in whoever wins but it will be completely different. >> interesting to see when they get in a room, you're democrat and i'm democrat when they fight it out. there will be connor lambs and -- >> more polarized the country becomes, you have more tension within coalitions. >> seen it both parties. up next, russia is now seen as likely suspect in the mysterious attacks on u.s. diplomats in cuba. we have exclusive new nbc news reporting ahead on that.

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we really pride ourselves on making it easy for you >> tech: at safelite autoglass, to get your windshield fixed. with safelite, you can see exactly when we'll be there. saving you time for what you love most. >> kids: whoa! >> kids vo: ♪ safelite repair, safelite replace ♪ welcome back. 26 government workers were injured in what the state department calls health attacks for now in their homes and hotels in havana, cuba, began in late 2016. another u.s. worker in china this year claims this as well. now u.s. officials tell nbc news they have a main suspect in the attacks. russia. u.s. officials say they have evidence pointing to russia from communications intercepts collected in an on-going investigation by the fbi, cia and other u.s. agencies. essentially they seem to hear russia bragging about doing this. the evidence isn't conclusive enough for the u.s. to formally blame moscow for the attacks

that began in 2016 and continued through earlier this year, which is causing a major rupture and renewed relations with havana. they removed most of its diplomats and spies from the island. state department today said they haven't assigned blame technically and their investigation is still on-going. they said there's no known cause and no known individual or group believed to be responsible at this time. for more, bring in one of my colleagues behind the report, josh letterman, national reporter for us, and evelyn, former secretary of defense for ukraine, and your asia, now nbc news national security analyst. josh, this is your scoop. let me start with you. so they've discovered, they believe it is russia based on russia bragging about it, is that at the end of the day, being a little short handed, best way to describe this? >> there's a few factors that

led them to think russia is the most likely culprit at this point. the fact that russia is one of the only countries in the world that would have the technical and the to carry out something this -- ability to carry out something this advanced. intelligence apparatus on the island of cuba, they have an interest are creating havoc with the u.s., possibly driving cuba away from the west, and this singles intelligence, intercepted communications that u.s. tell nbc news they have developed about the case. >> do they have a lead on the actual technology yet? that to me seems to be the missing piece. >> they have a few leads. they think that microwave technology was likely involved, but officials tell us that it is possible there were at least one or two additional technologies that could have been used in addition or in conjunction with mic microwaves. >> somebody aims an antenna at a

house? help me out, a van, i heard some people say they saw a van come away. a van comes close to the diplomat's house? >> the situations have varied case to case. there are reports someone saw a speeding van drive away, some folks heard things above their -- on the roof, thought it might have been coming from above. one thing that's consistent in all of the cases that the state department has confirmed is that it seems to be coming from a specific direction. people report it seemed like coming from the left or right and my effects were i lost hearing on the right side in line with where it seemed to be coming from. >> the idea, one of the theories was mass hysteria, one of the theories, maybe everybody thinks something happened and nothing did. is that ruled out? >> it has. top officials up to deputy secretary of state sullivan believed there's no way medical findings are things one could not fake. you can't fake these kinds of balance tests that they're

putting the diplomats through, and they believe they have real findings that show something happened and now they have to figure out what. >> evelyn, why are we stopping short of blaming the russians. explain why signals intelligence isn't enough to say it is you, moscow. >> it depends how much we have and how we got it, what we have. we may not want to reveal because we're continuing to use that to collect, continue to look at what the russians are doing and saying. we try to get other information from humans and other sources and ultimately you don't want to come out publicly saying for sure the russians did it unless you have something you can show and something you're going to do, right? because you can't say oh, they attacked us, and then what. so the government is not going to come out like the british waited, i'm sure they had a lot of intelligence on the attacks, on the nerve agents used in salisbury, england. they waited until they had a

sense of what they were going to do. they were going to go to the u.n., show the pictures and show the time line. same for the u.s. government, even if the intelligence community has, let's say, strong confidence, high confidence level is the term they would use, they still might wait until they have a policy decision about what to do. >> this seems to be the challenge here. we keep sanctioning russia for the bad things they do, whether it is interference in our election, if it is what they did to british citizens, you add this to it. you have crimea, aren't we out of sanctions? seems to be it is not working, sanctions policy isn't working. >> yeah. and chuck, this feels to me a lot like if you remember when the obama administration sanctioned the russians for interfering in our elections, they also sanctioned them for mistreating u.s. personnel in moscow, i don't know if you remember that. >> with the harassment campaign. >> part of it involved a guy

that was maybe an intelligence agent for the u.s. who basically had to run in and seek refuge in the embassy and russian guard tried to keep him out. so they were acting illegally according to international law. you're supposed to protect u.s. personnel under diplomatic cover, right? these attacks feel a little like that, a little bit of spy on spy, so they were -- it seems like they might have been singling out people they thought were intelligence agents and their families, and it may complicate our reaction. >> because we do it, too? >> remember, we had a guy arrested, the media said he may be a cia agent, had a blonde wig, russians said he was an intelligence agent. whatever retaliatory measures we took were probably more in the intel channels. >> the state department didn't push back on our reporting but

were pushing back on the idea we're not ready to name anybody. why are they so -- do you get the sense there are people at the state department that feel as if people are slow walking this and that's why it is getting out and people are concerned or they're just being deliberate. >> it is a combination of both. the state department for some reasons evelyn pointed out doesn't want to come out and say russia has been beaming our diplomats, causing brain injury until they checked every box, dotted every i, are ready to say what they're going to do about it. beyond that, there's a sense of frustration in the state department and other agtsz like the cia where people have been effected by the incidents to say this has been going on since the end of 2016. the example you mentioned, it was within weeks the international community said this happened, it has to stop. in this case it has been dragging on, continuing to happen into this year with no public answers. >> and evelyn, one way to sort

of show that we don't blame the cubans is to restore, send diplomats back. this is where putin played a smart game here. the new administration was looking for a reason to get out of cuba, and this handed the state department an excuse to get out of cuba. do you think we go back? >> i think we have to. we have to show our resolve. and president trump now, it's almost taunting him to not give up, even though he did want to walk away from cuba absolutely, which was also upsetting to many republican members of congress who were interested in the commercial aspects of ag and all that. i think the other interesting m element you could look at addressing is the cuban role. the cubans must have known this was going on. >> i thought our fbi was confident going they may not know. >> they may not have. here's another issue.

it is also russians violating the sovereignty of cuba. in a way, it is kind of the same ilk of killing people on british soil. >> josh, any sense that the state department thinks the cubans helped? >> they have not ruled out the possibility that either the cubans or some type of rogue element of the government that was hard liners -- >> i heard that theory. >> could have been involved. but certainly beyond saying cuba is responsible for the safety of all diplomats on the soil, the state department hasn't sought to go after the cubans in that way. >> you get the sense that many in cuba are upset it blew up the relationship. fascinating. thank you both. i have a feeling we'll keep coming back to this story. next, how democrats are taking the pulse of the midterms with an ad war over health care. you're headed down the highway when the guy in front slams on his brakes out of nowhere.

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welcome back. for the first time in 8 years, democrats are no longer on defense when it comes to parts of health care. now republicans are on the hook for their policies after trying and failing to fully repeal and replace obamacare. check out this ad from west virginia democratic senator joe manchin. >> now the threat is patrick moore's lawsuit to take health care away from people with pre-existing conditions. he is dead wrong and that ain't going to happen. >> that is worth noting. he doesn't call it obamacare. we'll get to that in a minute. this one supports another red state democrat, claire mccaskill. >> 2.5 million missourians.

filing a lawsuit to allow insurance companies to deny care while taking big bucks from the insurance industry. >> meanwhile, republicans are running "the ed sho running ads blasting single pay or and health care for all. i have a great panel to discuss this. what involvement in that missouri race. i'll go ahead, i want to ask you on both those races, the pre-existing condition issue because it is very, always universally popular, is that a problem for republican candidates if they appear to be on the side of getting rid of -- >> there's consensus among americans from both parties to protect people with pre-existing

conditions. the charge democrats are trying to wage in the senate race is that you have to keep obamacare to get pre-existing condition. they're holding sick people hostage to barack obama's political legacies is what it amounts to. >> doesn't it put them in the -- >> they failed to come up with an alternative. it doesn't mean americans prefer obamacare. to say you have to keep the things you don't like to keep one you do like, voters don't buy it. everyone that ever tried to touch obamacare has suffered for it in swing states. we have been through three election cycles, it was painful for democrats. i welcome them to run on obamacare in the next two months. hope they run on it the rest of the way. >> i think a lot of democrats want to run on health care and obamacare. they may not want to call it obamacare. >> they won't call it obamacare, but they want to. midterm voter happens to be older individuals who have health care.

when you look at what republicans are running in ads, they don't mention health care. they do some stuff for tax cuts and focus on anti-immigration ads. they feel that will galvanize the base. people that vote midterms, older traditionally white voters, this is whether they decide they can -- >> white voters are the key. democrats want to take medicare, turn it to medicaid. they want everyone on it. older voters will be particularly, and polling shows it, older voters are skeptical of this. middle aged voters are skeptical that it cost $30 trillion and will double taxes. only voters that like medicare for all are young. lowest propensity voters. >> i think the challenge is that a lot of stuff when you talk about trillion dollars in debt, republicans didn't care about that when they gave tax cuts to folks. that's one of the reasons why

connor lamb got ahead. he promised medicare and promised to have good health care, said he was not siding with the tax. >> let me show you this, this is interesting. keeping trak of favorable, unfavorable on obamacare. 2016, 10 points underwater. summer of '18, 20 point reversal. net positive. part of it may be just the president, obama, being in the rearview mirror. >> and it is easier to, yes, and easier for democrats -- it is harder to sell something than it is to attack something. i'm just -- i find it fascinating how the tide turned to see democrats embracing. in 2010, couldn't run further away. in 2012 couldn't run. >> to see joe manchin doing it, it tells you the issue has changed. >> totally changed. and not only that, then you see

prehealth insurance premiums are going up in october, and you'll see what the republicans did to the democrats in previous cycles. the democrats tried to do to republicans. i don't know if that will work. >> i think you're onto something important. obamacare was promised to bring costs down. did anything but. costs have gone up, continue to go up. the voter understands it is a broken system, a broken promise. the whole thing has to be torn down. >> do they also make the leap to republicans said they would fix it and didn't. >> isn't the lesson that democrats found out, nobody likes to see the health care system changed. and right now, status quo is obamacare. i just wonder. >> it is the same with social security. the reason there's a huge fight, people understand what social security means to them. the same with health care. people now have it. folks didn't have it before understand what it means to have absent health care. the government what they need to do, and i think most people agree, it is an imperfect system, but you have to fix it.

reneging, you can't wipe it off and start over, people aren't comfortable with that, after they tasted the ability to have health care. >> there's some truth to change always causes anxiety, right? but i continue to contend, except for hardcore liberals, obamacare is unpopular, at a minimum think it increased their cost at a minimum. cost is what the voter is focused on. does my health care cost more or not, do i pick my doctor or not. they don't say how about other people that don't have coverage, where are they. their questions are about their own plan. obamacare for most people resulted in worse coverage and more cost. >> the medicare for all debate which by the way, inside the democratic party is not resolved. >> right. >> clearly republicans want to take advantage of that. >> then they can say look, you don't want to hand this to democrats, they're going to turn it into a socialist system, it will cost a ton of money, and yet if you peel that away and

look at democrats, they don't know what they want to do either. there's a big divide between what direction to go. there's the bernie sanders wing and then others. and the risk in all of this is that say the democrats win and try to push their own agenda, then we're back to where we were once republicans got in charge where you can't agree on something. >> nobody likes owning health care. i think politically, it is bad when you're the party that owns health care. the question, brad, is how do republicans get out of owning the issue this year. >> talk about cost. voters fundamentally believe their premiums are open. >> blame it on democrats and -- >> no republican voted to pass obamacare. it passed only with democrats. that's why your premiums are up. >> but they're not in control of the house, democrats. if they wanted to make the changes, they could have. >> can't pass the law unless 9 democrats don't help you in the

senate. >> that's not how they campaigned. the campaign was this is what we're going to do. and hasn't been in the news a lot 'til now. >> that's a nice way to end it. stick around. up ahead. politics and patriotism. i get it all the time. "have you lost weight?" of course i have- ever since i started renting from national. because national lets me lose the wait at the counter...

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tonight, more than six months after the first ballots were cast, the primaries come to an end this week. voters are voting every day this week. voters in new hampshire are voting, and the matchup in the state's first congressional district. one of the swingiest swing districts. changes hands every two years. donald trump carried it in 2016, but shea-porter won it as in previous years. she is not running for re-election, she lost in midterm years last time, and there's a crowded field of candidates on both sides. rhode island, they vote tomorrow. yes, they're holding wednesday primaries, the traditional, never mind. the moderate governor is in for a rematch of the 2014 race. we say likely. she has a real primary on her hands. could lose the primary to a more progressive democrat. keep an eye on that. thursday, the establishment versus progressive dynamic,

cuomo's challenge from cynthia nixon. he had a share of negative headlines in the last week. recent polls have him up 40 points. the question has been cynthia nixon running for governor of new york city or manhattan. and the fight for attorney general in new york. the winner will likely be in charge of a major investigation into the trump family or trump businesses and will become the national face or one of the national faces of the anti-trump opposition. keep an eye on those three. those are the final major primaries. by friday, the slate of races will be set for the midterms. more with "mtp daily" after this. ♪

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been, pretty much since the manafort/cohen week, a barrage of negative news. we have seen the president's approve/disapprove in the real clear politics average drop a net 4 1/2 points. there have been all sorts of series. it was john mccain, the way he handled it, maybe it is the manafort/cohen and its delay, maybe it's these woodward books, maybe it's all of it. it seems to be a slow erosion. what are you seeing, brad? >> when the president's talking about the american people or the policies that are happening, his numbers are better. when the president's talking about the president, his numbers are worse. and i think that that is a lesson to take forward for him, and we'll see where october goes. you know, a key group of people in the election are people who think that things are going pretty well under the president. but they're still not completely in love with his style. >> nick mulvaney had that quote i'm still sort of laughing that

was overheard from the fund-raiser that everybody seemed to get audio of, by the way, he said, if he could take the president out of the equation, republicans will be fine. okay. and if tom brady stopped being the quarterback of the patriots, the jets might win the division, right? >> you can't do that, and yet at the same time there's a number of people in the base who don't want to take the president out of the equation. >> probably a number of candidates that need the president in the equation. >> and he's going to be active on the campaign trail. i do think that given the position that his approval rating is in right now, it kind of underscores how important this hurricane moment could really be for him. because, you know, people expect -- this is when people expect the president to, you know, do the equivalent of fill the potholes, pick up the trash. this is important, on-the-ground stuff that affects people's lives. so if he gets the job done, he might not move incredibly up. did he doesn't, that would be really impactful.

>> that's what's been odd here, maria, is watching -- the question has always been, these numbers haven't moved, haven't moved, haven't moved. then you start to see this -- in an election, we're in -- inside of 60 days, it's hard to bring that back without some outsized event. >> right. i think that's what you're saying is absolutely right, is he going to be presidential? three not going to be throwing paper towels at crowds when he can't actually clean up after them when it comes to fema? i also think the woodward book is taking a lot of life of its own because it was reaffirmed by the op-ed and people are trying to break rank. i think the challenge is whether or not people are going to tolerate the president if he continues to be erratic, because he can't help himself, and i think that is a challenge. >> he's going to get another thing coming. the clips of the book and whatever else in "the new york times," brett kavanaugh's going to go in the supreme court. supreme court politics was really important in 2016. it helped the president in the great lake states. it helped him in the midwest. that's going to dominate news coverage between now and the

election. >> i'm curious of this, brad, which is the threat of the supreme court, of who was going to pick it, i think was a huge motivator for some parts of the base. nobody votes after they're satisfied. like it is hard to get people -- like is the base going to be like, aah! you know? >> here's the problem, there are a lot of voters who are conflicted. the trick is for the republicans to make sure this helps reassure people who are conflicted. 47% of the people said the supreme court is extremely important to their choice. donald trump won that group by double digits. and so we have to go back to that -- >> that's my point, like can you motivate that crowd after they've gotten what they've asked for? >> you heard mitch mcconnell today make some sort of -- make noises in that direction, saying -- well, he's arguing that in some ways, the senate is more important than the house because they're in the personnel business that you need to hold the line there because they're the ones who are going to fill the courts and all these other positions that are actually going to affect policy. and so can they turn that into an effective argument in

november? i don't know. >> he may have had the quote of the day when he said, basically, it's a knife fight for the nine races that wear all talking about a lot. i guess, maria, if it's still a knife fight and we're talking north dakota, west virginia, indiana, missouri, that issed a -- >> montana. >> montana, is that advantage democrats? >> i do believe it's advantage democrats. all of a sudden the republicans are on the defensive and that's not where they want to be. i think it's going to be a real challenge. >> didn't you think one of these red states would be put away by now? >> no, never happens. i did tom cotton's race in 2014 -- >> you put prior put-away. >> not true, october 1 polls show single digits. you can't put a race away against an incumbent early, it's not possible. >> you really believe pryor was a flip race in october -- >> i didn't believe it from the start but you guys did. >> i didn't. >> leave that. >> i don't know. to me it says something that north dakota's not put away.

>> yep. >> it also, you know -- president trump's campaigning for ted cruz. this is not i think what a lot of people thought -- >> i put ted cruz in the bottom of the category. those two are unique in how they've made their races more competitive. but i'll set that aside for another conversation. i'm out of time. you guys were a great panel. we could have gone for a g-block. thank you very much and we'll be right back. this is important for people with asthma.

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tonight. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." please if you live on the coasts, follow those directions. if you don't evacuate when you're being asked to evacuate, then saving you is going to cost the opportunity to save someone else's life that may need it that did follow directions. please do that, it helps everybody out. to survive this storm. we're covering several stories tonight including as chuck mentioned that hurricane headed towards the east coast. how president trump is linking it to his response in puerto rico. nearly 3,000 americans died. democrats say they are nearing success in the quest to take out texas senator ted cruz. later a deeper look at military civil relations and the shock waves from bob woodward's reporting with astrophysicist neil degrasse tyson on "the beat" tonight. we begin with new evidence that donald trump's hellish month is taking a toll on his standing