. >> and our special coverage continues on "hardball" right now. stormy weather. this is "hardball." good evening. i'm chris matthews in washington. tonight hurricane florence begins its descent on the carolina coast. a massive potentially deadly storm. in washington, president trump, the conspiracy theorist in chief who began questioning president obama's american birth are now attacking those in the

hurricane. and there's breaking news on the russian investigation. paul manafort has buckled. he has tentatively agreed to a plea deal with robert mueller. a plea deal that could cause all kinds of trouble for president trump. let's begin with the historic weather. even before hitting land, hurricane florence a category 2 storm is making its presence felt with wind gusts up to 110 miles an hour and widespread flooding already. officials warn that florence could bring substantial storm surges of up to 11 feet. and more than 10 million people live right now in the storm's path. tens of thousands have already lost their power. while north carolina governor roy cooper made this plea to area residents. >> to anyone still unwilling to take this storm seriously, let me be clear, you need to get yourself to a safe place now. and stay there.

>> we've got reporters all over the coast. let's start with gadi schwartz who's in beauford, north carolina. gadi? oh, my gosh. >> reporter: this has been the situation for the last five or six hours. this isn't the worst of it. we expect the worst of it to come tonight. these winds we're seeing, they're about 50, 60, maybe 70 miles an hour. tonight we'll see winds over 100 miles an hour. we're also going to see high tide. and we're going to see a storm surge. so those three things are going to be potentially catastrophic around 11:00. beaufort is just across the way. there are reports of homes already being flooded by some storm surge. you were talking a bit ago about this being a category 2 hurricane. a lot of people have dismissed this as a category 2 hurricane, maybe choosing not to evacuate. this is the strength of tropical storm force winds, not that hurricane, that 100 miles an hour-plus hurricane winds. those are coming. they're close to us and they're

going to rake their way through north and south carolina. so right after this we can see on the radar they're approaching our location so we're going to fall back. we'll send it back to you. >> thank you very much, gadi schwartz. hang on there, sir. let's bring in kerry sanders from carolina beach. i've seen you everywhere, but this is something. looks a little calmer where you are. >> reporter: well, that's because i moved to a protected area. quite frankly, i've been getting beaten up. i'm soaked all the way through. i want to take you to the atlantic here. you can see the force of the atlantic. and we've been talking about this, but maybe we can explain a little bit about the concern about what is going to be the storm surge. an 11-foot dome or wall of water that will come over the sand dunes, over the boardwalk there, and then will come in. with the force of the atlantic behind it, it potentially will damage, take portions of homes and buildings. we're in what is allegedly a

constructed building here that is designed to handle up to a category 3 hurricane. so we feel safe where we are. the reason you don't see the wind blowing me right now is because while that is the atlantic, the wind is actually coming from this direction. so i'm slightly protected. but as that water comes in, it's coming in with the hurricane. in fact, the eye is apparently right now forecast to come here in carolina beach, right about here. we're going to see the strongest winds and potentially we might even see the eye wall come over. of course, that will come in between 4:00 and 10:00 a.m. because of the slow speed of all of this. but it's that continental shelf out there that starts about 60 miles and it's 120 feet and it just slopes right up. so as the wind pushes the water on the top, it builds it up. that is exactly what is ultimately the storm surge that folks are going to be dealing with, but not too many folks here because thankfully most of them evacuated.

>> can a human being stand up and survive and not drown in a surge? or do you have to be out of the way to survive? >> reporter: no. i'm going to tell you that i was in the beginning of a storm surge during hurricane matthew and there is no way you can stand in a storm surge. i had to dash, fortunately got behind the building. but i got to tell you, when the storm surge is coming in, it's probably going to rip up portions of the boardwalk there because of the force of the atlantic ocean. those boards are flying around, there's other debris in the water. it hits you, there's absolutely no way -- an olympic swimmer couldn't handle it. it takes out portions of buildings and depending on the construction and maybe the age of the construction, we have seen like hurricane, i think it was ike, that leveled an entire portion of gilchrist beach. there was one house left.

so it's nothing anybody could withstand. that's important. because so often people say, i want to stay. i want to protect my property. there's nothing you can do. you can't protect a single thing. >> most people, i guess, if you're trained to do it can breathe up to three minutes or so. but even if you could stand up during these surges, how long does the water stay at that level? >> reporter: well, let me tell you that i recently did swift water rescue because i was doing a story with the teams in upstate new york. the idea of standing is actually dangero dangerous, too, because you have the water moving. you thought is to stand up. but your feet down there get stuck on something and you can't get out and the water is coming over and down you go. so there is all types of methods to protect yourself where you come up on your back, put your arms out like this, bring your feet up and then bring your arms out and begin to paddle. i've got to tell you, these may be methods, but i don't think it's possible because you're going to hit something.

your head's going to get hit. you might get knocked out. this is really why they say, please, please, please, please fall back though shelters. get away from where the storm surge is going to be. unless you have a secure location like we have here. >> i think you made the point. thank you so much. kerry sanders with that public service warning. get out of the way. let's go to garrett haake who's in new bern, north carolina. it looks like a beautiful part of the country. but right now, not a place to visit. zblild probably stay away for a couple of days, chris. but it's interesting. there's a lot of old historic homes here that have been here for 200 years. people are saying my home has lasted this long, maybe i don't need to leave. but what we're experiencing now is some of that storm surge. this town is wrapped on two sides by the noose river. that noose has been tightening all day, if you'll forgive the pun. this is pressing further into the neighborhoods. even on the street i'm standing

on now, we had to abandon one live shot location. it was turned into an island. in the last hour i think our camera man can look here, the mud has pushed up a house and a half length in the last hour. where we have not really seen a ton of rain so far. we're on the edge of this. we're a block and a half in from the river and everything is in here. even folks who look like they've been here for 20 or 30 years is how far into the town does the river go? is this a storm like they've seen? or will we have such an amount of pressure and water push into the town that it's beyond what people have seen in the last couple years. and frankly, chris, we're in that same guessing game

ourselves now trying to figure out if our safe house, the place we've chosen to stay tonight, is going to stay safe enough. >> i'm looking behind you. why are there lights on the houses. are people sticking it out? >> you know, i've got street lights on here. behind our camera position, there are folks still in their homes. i was talking to them before we came on air to see what their plans are. but i don't think there's anybody left in any of the houses behind me. the power is still on here. this is a place they've got underground lines. it's not been blown down by the wind. at some point, i'm sure that will no longer be the case. the lights have stayed on, the winds have stayed low. that's part of the reason people aren't more panicked at this point. but this water, i'm watching it come. and it's coming slowly, but it just keeps coming. i think that's going to be the story in this part of the north carolina coast. >> well, thank you so much, garett haake. it's a beautiful part of the

country. let's turn to bill karins to find out the latest. bill, you're the expert. what's coming? >> look at garrett and we all have the lights on him later on, about midnight tonight. the high tide of the noose river there is going to be about 30 minutes past midnight. the water level there is expected to be three to four feet higher than where he's standing right now. think how close that water will be to going in those homes. there's a picture of the beautiful homes there. that water in the road is going to go up about three or four feet additionally. that will be into the first floor level of those homes there. that's one of the big concerns there on the noose river basin, the trent river, the river bend area there. i lived in new bern for a couple years. i was standing there when bertha hit. it's already at those height levels. tomorrow we're going to do it again at the morning high tide 12 hours later. so let me get into the latest with the storm. still a category 2. it's been wobbling around a little bit here. we're stuck in this outer band

with tropical storm force winds. we saw gadi being blown around there in the morehead city area. new bern is well inland here. this is not just a coastal event. it's even far inland we'll see this flooding. i'm sure there will be water rescues taking place far away from the coast and inland areas where those rivers are getting backed up. the winds are ramping up. winds gusting to 63 here. 54 in hatteras. isn't too bad. we're waiting for it in wilmington at 47. so the storm is currently 90 miles east/southeast of wilmington. landfall predicted by the hurricane center maybe 8:00 a.m. to noonish or so. if it stalls out a little later than that. here's the 2:00 p.m. position. almost over top of wilmington. then it kind of rains itself out and heads down towards the myrtle beach area. so the key times are the high

tide cycles. that's when we usually have the most fatalities, when the most damage is done with the storm surge. the next high tide is coming close to midnight from 11:13 p.m. here near wrightsville beach and up the coast. that'll be the highest water levels we've seen so far with the storm. now, i just saw some new information they are calling for the high tide tomorrow morning at 11:00 a.m. to noon to be higher than the one tonight. so at first it was looking like tonight would be the worst. that's not the case anymore. where ever the water is tonight at midnight, it'll probably be an additional foot or half a foot higher tomorrow morning. that's the problem with this storm, chris. it's one high tide cycle after the other. so we get the high tide coming in, we get dunes taken out, damage to the structures. then we'll do it again when there's no defenses. and you get the wave action on top of it. we'll deal with this through the weekend. but a huge area, all the way through south carolina is going to get two feet of rain out of

this. yeah. it's too much water too soon. it's a water problem. the wind isn't going to cause a ton of damage. it's the water that's the biggest threat to lives and property. >> i'm so glad you're from down there. i went to school down there. i have to tell you, there's one part about this i appreciate. it's very american. it's this time of year, it's the time of year for this thing. it's prince of tides tim conway stuff. >> eastern carolina gets hit on average once every four years. they know the drill, but they don't like this one because it's going to linger. >> it's part of america. thank you so much, bill karins. more on that storm throughout the hour tonight. in fact, coming up, president trump's latest conspiracy theory. 3,000 people did not die, he said, in puerto rico due to that hurricane down is there. it's all a plot of democrats. he's a hurricane denier now. it gets worse. plus breaking news in the case of former did the campaign chairman paul manafort.

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welcome back to "hardball." in a series of tweets this morning, president trump claimed without any evidence at all that he -- the estimates death toll from puerto rico was being inflated by his enemies to undermine him. quote, 3,000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit puerto rico. when i left the island after the

storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. a long time later, they started to report really large numbers like 3,000. this was made by the democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when i was successfully raising billions of dollars to help rebuild puerto rico. that's trump talking, tweeting, rather. that figure of almost 3,000 dead was the result of an independent study. it was commissioned by puerto rican officials. nearly 3,000 excess deaths. in other words, people that would not normally have died. puerto rico's governor said in a statement the victims and people of puerto rico do not deserve to have their pain questioned. in response to the president's tweet, tony schwartz says when trump tells a lie as with the handling of the puerto rico hurricane, the magnitude and repetition o of the lie is in direct proportion to how fully he believes he is of what's

being charged against him. joining us is susan paige, washington bureau chief for usa today. tony, explain this proportional response. the lie is big enough to cover the embarrassment? >> well, i think what happens to trump is not so much the embarrassment but what lies beneath the embarrassment which is the absolute allergy and that's a mild word to any evidence that he is weak or he is wrong or he has failed. that's intolerable to him. it becomes 100% preoccupying and he must attack it. and as we know from the thousands of lies he tells and has told, that's the way he does it. >> put him in a lie detector. make him tell the truth. does he know the truth? this is the issue raised by bob woodward. one, he says he doesn't have the capacity to tell the truth. and the other is he doesn't have an attachment to reality. so which is it as you observed

him as a co-author? does he know how to lie or does he simply lie because he doesn't know the truth? >> chris, he lives on two tracks. one when he is in a slightly saner state and it's all relative in his case, he is absolutely capable of consciously lying for a particular outcome. when he is aroused when he's feeling under attack, it happens instinctively, impulsively, and with no forethought. he just does what he has to do. it's a survival mechanism. >> show up in the oval office today with sodium penothol, truth serum, would he say 3,000 people were not killed in puerto rico during maria? will he say that with medical influence? >> yes. >> does he mean that or believe? >> in moments of feeling under

attack, he loses sight of it. the prefrontal cortex really shuts down. but i think when the physiology comes back done -- put him under oath for that. >> trump's tweet this morning was his latest defense of his administration's response to hurricane maria. earlier this week he called it, quote, an incredible unsung success. his former homeland security adviser tom bossert told "the new york times" the missing part was empathy. i wish he would have paused and expressed that instead of focusing on the response success. there was this advice for president trump today. >> if i was his boss or standing next to him as his chief of staff, i would kick him on the ankle and say, look. focus on the future damn storm.

stop looking in the rearview mirror. >> boy, you know, this is what presidents -- this is where the divide is, you know? i think lbj went out and handed out water one time when there was bad weather down in louisiana. w. flew over. you know? you only get one shot at this. and trump is not looking good. >> you know, natural disasters are trouble for politicians. people expect the public officials to be there if there's a hurricane or if there's a riot. politicians are punished for not showing up when people are in trouble. and also i have a question for you from your previous conversation. which is worse? is it worse that president trump believes what he's saying opposite all the evidence that we have about how many people died in puerto rico? or is it worse if he asserts that and knows it's not true? >> let me go back to tony, because you worked with him hand in glove. i know i only have a few things -- i think joe sk

scarborouskar bo scarborough says i know in these bones. stupid wars like iraq drive me crazy. i hate stupidity by politicians when it comes to war because so many people die when they shouldn't. and when they're denying voting with they deny who we are. this question. he said barack obama -- i know he has an african name. we know it was a challenge for him to get elected anywhere to the senate or the presidency, but why did he keep saying he was born in kenya when it was impossible to figure out why a white woman from kansas would go over to kenya to have the baby there so she could have him 30 years later habe president. it made no sense to have him claim he was an illegal immigrant. but he reached the points of stop saying it.

do you tell me he believed it all those months he was spewing that crap? >> no. he didn't believe it. >> why was he doing it? he was lying. >> he was lying. he did it because it served his intention or his hope of running for president at the time. and that's why he does it. i mean, that's consistently why he does it. just want to go back to this issue of empathy. because one of the problems here is that donald trump doesn't have empathy. that's not a modest statement. he literally has no empathy. he does not feel emotions like care and -- >> he's a sociopath? >> well, i've said since 2016 in the new yorker when he started to run for president, yes. he is a sociopath. there's no question. he's a sociopath. meaning he neither has a conscious nor does he have a heart. or i should say because it's more accurate, it's so deeply buried that even he doesn't have access to it. because what he feels is to have

any of those feelings, compassion, empathy, is to make him weak and vulnerable. and that's what's intolerable to him. >> you know, you make it sound like "blade runner" when they go to the replica and say what do you feel when the bug dies. he doesn't feel anything. >> he doesn't feel anything. isn't that terrifying? and isn't that so repugnant in a moment like this. the 3,000 people who died and their families suffering, grieving in part because he did such a terrible job of taking care of puerto rico in the aftermath of that storm. in this case i believe he has no upside. i don't think if he does it well, it's going to serve him well. i don't think it's going to be ignored. but if he doesn't do it well, wow. it's one more -- >> how many electoral votes does puerto rico have? >> yeah. exactly. and how many white people compared to brown or black people. >> well, "the washington post" fact checker gave trump's claim

this morning four pinocchios. it's the highest for false statements. prior to the tweet, the fact checker said he already passed 5,000 false claims since becoming president. you know, i watch like you do and most political reporters and assignment reporters, we look at the approval rating of the president. it has guardrails. mid-30s, mid-40s. somewhere in that range. and it just bounces around there cyclicly. but these lies don't hurt him any. why not? >> you know, i think his supporters are with him because they're with him because they like his bluster, they like his attitude, they like what he says about trade and about america being cheated and about standing up for a more traditional america. but i do think there's some corrosive effect. and i think you see some of it now. his approval rating now down to maybe 40 or so. >> it seems to have a little ratchet effect there. doesn't go much lower. >> the bottom hasn't fallen out

of it, but i do think there are some questions. i think even though he's said untruths before, if you look at this one it seems especially painful because it's about the deaths of americans. it seems like it's worse than the lie about the birtherism. >> i think we've had phrases similar to this. but hurricane denier might be his new one. >> as another hurricane is about to hit. >> strange denial. tony schwartz, you know him close up. thank you. susan paige, thank you. up next, former trump campaign manager paul manafort as i said has reportedly reached a plea deal with the prosecutors. that's with mueller. what does this mean for manafort, trump, and the investigation? i'm sure trump is wondering what this means. has this guy turned? this is "hardball" where the action is. turned? this is "hardball" where the action is. (burke) that's what we call a huge drag.

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welcome back to "hardball" where there's breaking news in the case against paul manafort who was convicted of eight criminal counts just last month in virginia. now he faces additional charges in a court in washington, d.c. abc news is reporting just tonight that, quote, manafort has tentatively agreed to a plea deal with special counsel robert mueller that will head off his upcoming trial. that deals with the trial coming up that was set to take place this month. quote, the deal is expected to be announced in court friday, that's tomorrow, but it remains unclear whether manafort has

agreed to cooperate with prosecutors or is simply conceding to a guilty plea which would allow him to avoid the expense and stress of trial. reuters also saying a possible deal, quote, is close but not there yet. separately rudy giuliani said he was confident manafort will not flip on trump. there's no fear that paul manafort would cooperate against the president because there's nothing to cooperate about and we long ago evaluated him as an honorable man. joining me now is washington bureau chief for mother jones and author of "russian roulette." great book out there about the russian investigation. i go directly to mr. butler. what does it mean to you when you hear this? >> it means that manafort is asking himself whether he gets a better deal from donald trump or robert mueller. if it's donald trump, that means that he's confident that trump will pardon him and then he

makes -- he pleads guilty in order to avoid the expense of a trial, a second trial which would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars in addition to the hundreds of thousands of dollars that he owes for the first trial. the other possibility is that he decides that he can't count on donald trump for anything including a pardon and so he makes a deal with mueller. but mueller says what you got. mueller isn't going to be willing to make a deal with manafort unless manafort can give him the goods on donald trump. >> they've been spending up to five hours negotiating this. is that what they're negotiating? what you got? >> yeah. mueller is going to say something has to be in it for me. we already convicted you of eight felonies in virginia. this is actually an easier case in d.c. because it's about failure to register as a lobbyist. you either did or you didn't. mueller's saying you can go to jail for another ten years or you can help us make our case. >> he wouldn't give him a break

on the sentences he's already got, the charges he's already found guilty of in virginia. he can do a big bundle of thank you. what's manafort know about trump? can you tell from your reporting, david? >> well, there are a couple of areas. i mean, he may know about stuff prior to the campaign, but during the campaign remember this guy named george pop -- p papadopoulos. one of the earlier filings in the case, it says that manafort knew about that. so manafort also sat in on the trump tower meeting in which there was if not collusion, an attempt to collude. there's also a case of donald trump jr. lying putting out a statement about that meeting that donald trump now admits he

dictated. this could be an obstruction of justice issue that manafort might know something about. >> wow. what do you think about this, paul? this is a lot of stuff. it affects the family. it affects the president. he could incriminate them all potentially. >> he could. so the question is how trustworthy he is not as a witness. he's never going to show up in a courtroom. but in terms of what information he has, again, the way it works is his lawyers -- manafort's lawyer make a proffer. he says this is what we would tell you. this is what we would testify to the grand jury if you give us a deal. mueller evaluates that and then decides whether there's enough in it for his side, for the special counsel to go forward. >> politico is also reporting attorneys for manafort have been in touch with trump's legal team. giuliani confirmed that trump's lawyers and manafort's lawyers have been in regular contact. well, giuliani confirmed he spoke with manafort's lead

defense after returned in that virginia trial a few weeks ago. but the former mayor wouldn't say what he discussed with the manafort team. back to you, paul. >> once again, we see the trump defense strategy out of the mob playbook. you see these joint defense agreements in organized crime cases and street gang cases. what they allow lawyers to do is to coordinate so that all -- everything that's said is protected by attorney/client privilege. what they also allow is for the defendants to get their stories straight. to make sure that everybody's on the same page. the other significance of this is it means that trump understands that his interests are aligned with manafort's which makes it -- >> but it's collusion. this is a separate -- legal collusion between manafort and donald trump. correct me if i'm wrong, paul, but in few of these cases do one of the possible defendants have the ability to pardon the

defendant. >> i'm not a lawyer. i admit you're the expert. i get the thing that somewhere down the line of '19, the big question is are you going to protect your family with pardons and kill the chance of getting re-elected or not? and you're going to make that decision. thank you, david corn and paul butler. coming up next, bands of drenching rain from florence and 11 foot seawalls coming in. we're going to check in with that with al roker. you're watching "hardball." th that with al roker you're watching "hardball. this is an insurance commercial. but let's be honest, nobody likes dealing with insurance. which is why esurance hired me, dennis quaid, as their spokesperson because apparently, i'm highly likable. see, they know it's confusing. i literally have no idea what i'm getting, dennis quaid. that's why they're making it simple, man in cafe. and more affordable. thank you, dennis quaid. you're welcome. that's a prop apple. i'd tell you more, but i only have 30 seconds. so here's a dramatic shot of their tagline

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can't impact power lines. and since the onset of the drought we've doubled our efforts. i grew up in the forests out in this area and honestly it's heartbreaking to see all these trees dying. what guides me is ensuring that the public is going to be safer and that these forests can be sustained and enjoyed by the community in the future. welcome back to "hardball." we're keeping a close eye on hurricane florence down in the carolinas. it begins to hit any moment now the east coast down there. joining us now is al roker of nbc. thank you. al, the great thing about this -- the only good thing about this storm is we get that view on "hardball." but thank you for coming on. >> i appreciate it.

it's always good to see you, chris. and we are seeing those bands of rain coming in and the winds are picking up. these are some buoys just off shore. 112 mile-per-hour wind gusts. cape hatteras 54 miles per hour. here's the latest from the national hurricane center. we expect an update in about the next 15 minutes. but in the meantime, it's a category 2 storm. 100 mile-per-hour winds. here's the track as we see it now. about 8:00 p.m. -- 8:00 a.m., i should say, it comes on shore across wilmington. then myrtle beach. makes a right turn and heads up into tennessee on into west virginia, ohio, eventually into pennsylvania. it'll even be raining here in the northeast later on early next week. but in the meantime, these are the extremes. peak wind gusts of over 100 miles per hour.

significant wind damage expected. and with that, there are going to be massive power outages. up to 3 million people without power throughout the southeast. the greatest storm surge threat is about 7 to 11 feet. that's in wrightsville beach, anywhere to the east and west of there. high tide's around 11:30 tonight to around 11:47. then tomorrow morning, another high tide from about 11:30 to about 12:00 noon. that's going to be the peak time. 7 to 11 foot surge. and rainfall, chris, we're talking generally from myrtle beach on up to about cape hatteras, we're looking at 10 to 20 inches of rain but could see isolated totals of 40 inch. unprecedented rain totals and a flood threat until next week. but the big problem, chris, going to be the storm surge. that's where 50% of people in hurricanes lose their lives. >> you know, is this sort of normal? you and i grew up with the hurricane season.

this is the hurricane season. it's that part of the country. it seems very familiar to me. is this unusually harsh weather? >> well, you know, look. it started out as a -- it's been a category 4. it's down now to a 2. but we're seeing these supercharged storms all of a sudden become hurricanes as we are dealing with climate change, as we're dealing with sea level rise. all of a sudden areas like the southeast especially are very vulnerable to this kind of storm. >> boy, it reminds me of pat co conroy prince of tides. great to meet you again. i mean see you again. >> nice meeting you, too, chris. >> you're the celebrity, i'm nervous. president trump is not known as a paragon of truth, but he's generating outrage from all points of the compass. trump. 45,0 5,000 cases of lies since taking

office. we'll be back with that. s sinceg office we'll be back with that.

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olay deep hydrating eye gel breaks through the competition olay eyes with b3 complex hydrates better than $100, $200 even $400 eye creams. that's something to see. olay welcome back to "hardball." earlier today president trump dismissed the death toll in puerto rico as a democratic attack to make him look bad. it's yet another example, i think, of the president's embrace of conspiracy theories. let's watch. >> our current president came out of nowhere -- came out of nowhere. in fact, i'll go a step further. the people that went to school with him, they never saw him.

they don't know who he is. crazy. i watched when the world trade center came tumbling down. and i watched in jersey city, new jersey, where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. his father was with lee harvey oswald prior to oswald being, you know, shot. the whole thing is ridiculous. prior to his being shot and nobody even brings it up. when you look at the people that are registered, dead, illegal, in two states, and some cases maybe three states. we have a lot to look into. >> we're joined by the "hardball" round table tonight. why does trump say things he knows aren't true? >> he just gets upset about it, right? the thing that struck me about so many of these things are

they're government findings, right? it's the government who says russia interfered -- >> don't you mean the deep state? >> he runs the government. it's just he doesn't trust his own people and the findings that they figure out. >> this spooky thing, clarence, where nobody knew him at school, that goes beyond birtherism. that suggests he's one of the ivy league plots that created a phantom person. like no one did go to columbia, nobody went to harvard law, he didn't exist. what's the point he's making there? and all those people cheering. >> well, this really underscores how there's this mysterious guy came out of nowhere. oh, yeah, happens to be black. >> that part they knew. >> somebody in africa conspired in the late '50s saying we're going to get a black man elected in 2008. this whole thing is just so ridiculous. >> give him the name barack hussein obama to make it work.

>> when he launched his candidacy, he talked about obama, et cetera. and he got applause for it from a set of voters who turned out for him. that's his base. and that's all he wants. he doesn't reach beyond it and his approval numbers show it. w. he doesn't reach beyond it and his approval numbers show it. this is how he became a minority president, ironically enough. >> it goes beyond just -- this puerto rico tweet goes beyond conspiracy theories though. >> hurricane denial. >> it also goes to this idea of branding and he is never wrong. if you talk to people who worked with him in new york in his business days, he was known for hyperbole, for exaggeration, for saying i'm the biggest real estate developer in new york, i have the best buildings. and in business you can do that. that's part of the way things are in marketing, especially in the world of real estate. in politics, in government you can't. it also gets to another point, a theme of his life, is he is never wrong. he has never made a mistake.

he will never admit defeat. he will never apologize. so saying there's a problem with -- fits this pattern. >> let me try something. there's a real world he knows. he knows what it takes to get a project going in new york. pay off the councilman or woman, pay off the mob, the unions. he knows reality when it comes to making money. he is not divorced from understanding if universe he lives in. why does that part of the world matter to him, and he understands it, but he doesn't seem to understand anything that might be used against him? so he's lying. >> it is the difference, i think, though, between where he came from and what he's doing now. here's the thing that he -- he hurts himself, right? he has talked repeatedly in the last year about how the mayor or the governor of puerto rico has been supportive. and he has. he said all these things about the how the administration did all the right things. today the governor came out and said the president was wrong. here was an ally. and now he's lost him, right?

paul ryan -- >> they don't have any electoral votes. wait until the storm gets to pennsylvania. >> they do have electoral votes in florida, and where is everyone from puerto rico going? they're moving to florida. >> migration declined in puerto rico, a lot of them moved to florida. >> the governor of florida, rick scott, who said he was wrong, the man he supports, ron desa desantis said he's wrong. >> barack obama -- obama's return to the campaign trail sets up a proxy battle, of course, with president trump, who's planned an aggressive campaign schedule himself for the midterms. clarence, this is -- is this good for obama? >> ohio is my home state. i'm very close to the situation there. >> where did you grow up? >> in middletown, home of hill billy -- he went to the same high school i did, 30 years

later. his middletown is devastated, you had a front line special this week about the dayton and what's happened to it with the centralization post nafta, et cetera. ohio has always been a swing state, essential for republicans, obama won it twice because he was very well aware of the demographics of industry in ohio and that's how he beat mitt romney at the time. >> is he smart to get into a street fight with trump? >> some people say he's going to agitate more trump supporters. the fact is, people who are going to vote for trump already know it. and the swing voters are what people should be going for now and obama knows that he can reach those folks. he's done it before. but he's always had short coat tails. this is partly a test now to see if he can help cordray to win in that state. >> the independent voters in florida are heavily for bill nelson. fascinating. tell me about ohio. >> i was going to say about obama, like it or not, he's still the head of the party.

there's 20 people -- democrats running for president against president trump, but there's no one defining person. it's still barack obama. and honestly, it's surprising he hasn't done this yet, this last 18 months that he didn't get involved when -- >> can he do this when trump attacks, remember that thing he used to do? >> there's this theory out there that trump's strongest when he has someone to push back against. putting obama out there gives him another person to duke it out with. >> obama is the reason he ran. >> trump has had eight years to discredit obama. trump hasn't found a way to drag down obama the way he has other contestants. when we return, let me finish tonight with trump watch. you're watching "hardball."

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trump watch thursday, september 13th, 2018. i tweeted today that president trump is now the babe ruth of bs. what earned him this moniker was trump's achievement of just reaching the 5,000 mark in the number of times he has made misleading statements. this, according to "the washington post" fact checker, trump's lawyer john dowd saw the problem way back when he was working for the president. according to bob woodward's stunning new book, trump was ready to be questioned under oath by robert mueller's investigators, but dowd knew trump was incapable of giving a straight statement under oath.

quote, he told trump he was not a good witness. he was deluded, couldn't accept reality, couldn't be counted on to tell the truth even when his situation demanded it. trump couldn't see the problem, believed he could get through an under oath interview with mueller. it was the reason dowd quit. mr. president, i'm afraid i just can't help you, he said. the larger question, who can help this president? who can help a president incapable of recognizing or accepting facts? trump reminds me of something woodie allen once said, what did reality ever do to me? trump came a long way saying what's not true. he got early following saying the president of the united states was an illegal immigrant, smuggled into the president and set on a plan to one day be president. jumping from one conspiracy to the next, claiming in his latest rant that the thousands of people in puerto rico were not, despite reports, killed by hurricane maria. birther conspirator to hurricane denier.

hoping for someone, somewhere to buy his latest claim. that's "hardball" for now. thanks were being with us. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris haste. there's a lot going on this evening. breaking news the president's campaign chairman may be making a deal with special counsel robert mueller to plead guilty and avoid a second criminal trial. we're tracking that story and bring you more developments ahead. but first, a massive and powerful hurricane is closing in on the east coast of the united states, the man serving as president of this country has once again, and today perhaps most profoundly demonstrated his manifest unfitness for the office he holds. while the federal government was preparing today to confront a major crisis in the carolinas where millions of people are now in harm's way, millions under a mandatory evacuation order, the president was denying the crisis that occurred last year in