orbit, manafort, flynn, gates. cohen doesn't have a cooperation agreement and the only way to lessen the sentence for the crimes he pled guilty to, so that would make sense if he's in talking to mueller. >> making sense, that's what we all do here every day. i'm nicolle wallace. mtp daily starts right now. hi, chuck. >> hi, nicole. >> you always sigh in the handoff. is it me? >> it's only tuesday. >> you just started. >> i know and it's only tuesday! it's a long six days. >> don't sigh, my friend. it's a long four years. >> yes, it is. thank you. if it's tuesday, boom goes the dynamite.

good evening, i'm chuck todd. welcome to mtp daily. the political equivalent of four sticks of dynamite wrapped in radioactive material. at this hour there are so many questions about that bombshell hearing scheduled for next monday where both the president supreme court pick and his accuser, professor christine blasey-ford, are scheduled to testify. in fact, we're not even sure the hearing is going to happen. ford apparently has not yet accepted invitation. obviously this issue is so fraught with political danger for a lot of people. they're sending signals, at times awkwardly, that they will defend kavanaugh and also that they will cut him loose. >> i feel so badly for him that he's going through this, to be honest with you. i feel so badly for him. this is not a man that deserves this. this should have been brought to the fore, it should have been brought up long ago. with all of that, i feel that

the republicans, and i can speak for myself, we should go through a process. there shouldn't even be a little doubt. hopefully, the woman will come forward, state her case. he will state his case before representatives of the united states senate and then they will vote. and we will see what happens. >> the president also said that the fbi told him they were not interested in investigating the allegations, but, folks, as the president defends kavanaugh there's also signs that the white house is extremely weary of the political danger he may pose for the gop. he has spent the better part of the two days huddling at the white house. the president told reporters that this is kavanaugh's fight, not his. the president said he wouldn't even speak to kavanaugh while he has been at the white house. >> specifically, i haven't wanted to speak to judge kavanaugh, because i knew somebody would ask me the same

question that you asked me, have you spoken to judge kavanaugh. specifically, i thought it would be a good thing not to. he can handle himself better than anybody. he is a very outstanding man. >> president trump also said he was okay with delaying this confirmation vote so, quote, both sides can be heard. but he may not have much of a choice. mitch mcconnell is a shrewd political operator. if he had the votes what do you think he would be doing with the kavanaugh nomination? he would probably have it through committee already. we've heard more than a few republican senators in the past several hours waiver a bit. >> if the allegation were true, it would be disqualifying for him? >> of course. >> if the incident occurred as she described it, that would be disqualifying. that's why we're having this hearing. >> and we have, in the past, changed our minds on judges in the past. you saw that several weeks ago where members of the republican conference changed their minds on a judge at the last minute because of additional information that we found. >> obviously, if judge kavanaugh

has lied about what happened, that would be disqualifying. >> compounding matters, kavanaugh may have committed a few unforced errors himself. we don't know that yet but has allowed the white house to servacy his political war room. probably not a good look. in addition to denying the allegations of sexual assault he has also denied being at the social gathering where ford alleges the assault took place. moments ago one of the alleged witnesses put out a statement through his lawyer saying he has, quote, no memory of this alleged incident and he doesn't want to speak publicly about it. if evidence surfaces between now monday merely contradicting kavanaugh's denial about being at the social gathering, does that mean he can't recover from that? let's bring in tonight's panel, nbc news court reporter. cornell belcher and shane harris, correspondent at the

washington post. your newspaper is what launched this, took something that had been a rumor and hearsay and, obviously, the big question is, where is professor ford? >> that is a good question. i do not know. and i wasn't reporting on the story. but i think this moment of suspense we're now in, this hearing is set for monday. if she doesn't show up, does the hearing still go forward? does that wreck her credibility? if she gives a private interview, will that be sufficient for everyone? these are the terms that are being negotiated. but it seems to me that this whole new process that the senate now finds itself trying to work its way through -- and we're watching that improvisational tribunal aspect going on now. she holds all the cards and could probably dictate the terms of how she wants to do her appearance, she could do it privately, republicans have already said that.

if the two of them show up on monday, the metaphor you use, radioactive dynamite, something we've never really quite seen. >> not in the me too era. dana? >> i guess i'm the only woman sitting here, and i remember high school well. i can't tell you every party i went to, but i sure wouldn't take the stand against somebody based on the memory of a party that i went to 40 years ago and seek to destroy their career, never having stepped up once during this process. i think the right question for us to ask is, okay, if this is true, this is serious. and this person deserves to be taken seriously, but how do we prove that it's true? and that notion of due process -- that, in fact, this has to be proven -- is what judge kavanaugh deserves. we seem to have all forgotten

that. >> cornell? >> it's a tough thing, right? i hear you on many aspects of that. at the same time, how many times have we seen women -- take the bill cosby case, for example, all these women who didn't show up. why didn't they come forward? i'm a man. i can't speak on this but apparently it's a real difficult and tough thing. we have to hear her out. and hear what she has to say, right? the deal that i don't remember from high school, look, if i sexually assaulted a woman in high school, i'm going to remember it, right? if you were sexually assaulted in high school you're going to remember it, right? it's a traumatic thing. what's striking me also is you have a white house here that's stepping back from it. why are they stepping back from it? you have a president with zero credibility in this space. this president cannot rise to your defense in this area. >> we're getting a preview of what -- it's interesting. the senate has been playing cooling saucer a bit.

here is what demand justice group from the left is putting up on the air and then we'll play for you an ad that a group from the right is putting on the air. one opposes kavanaugh and one supports him. take a look. >> he didn't do anything. >> grab him by the [ bleep ]. >> admitted sex abuser sits in the white house, spo supported an accused child predator for the senator. >> get out and vote for roy moore. >> then he nominated this man to the u.s. supreme court. >> accusing kavanaugh of sexual assault. when she tried to scream, she said he put his hand over her mouth. >> we can't let brett kavanaugh decide on our rights for a generation. enough is enough. >> from demand justice, a group from the left. and you saw trump, roy moore and then brett kavanaugh. a group from the right, judicial crisis supporting brett kavanaugh. >> i've been friends with brett

kavanaugh for 35 years. never thought about doing a tv commercial. i'm not involved in politics. i'm a teacher. i'm a coach. i believe that we need to have bright, curious, open-minded, thoughtful, empathetic people who are judges. and i trust that brett is that person. >> as you can see, this is not going to be fact based. this is going to be feeling based. let's be realistic. people are going to let their feelings decide who is telling the truth. >> you're right. due process you mentioned being afforded to the judge here. we would all hope in a situation like this people would aspire to those kinds of levels but that's not what's going to happen here. this is a committee that gets to decide for itself, for whatever reasons, it wants to confirm or not confirm this judge. and the fact that you see them, i think, waivering so quickly even with just the allegation, gives you a very good sense of where the barometer is. >> this is going to be played out. it's going to be played out in the court of public opinion and full disclosure, i work for

demand justice. >> i didn't know but thank you for telling us. >> so, yes, from both sides and this is how big mon cey is corrupting our system. they can spend as much money as they possibly want and it becomes a battle in the public space when, quite frankly, it's a disservice to our democracy. >> we know it's wrong. >> right. >> something that cornell said, i think, is really, really important. donald trump, we know, we've seen him, right? we've seen him again and again and again have no respect for women, make crude comments about women, hang around with what do we call them now, porn actresses? >> not porn star. >> not porn star. >> you have to prove you're a star before we call you one. i'm sorry. >> i think that's true. we know that, okay? we know in the case of bill clinton, that's a man who likes to look at the ladies. we've seen pictures of him doing

that in the last month at a funeral, okay? and i think that that's the difference between the cosby case and this. this is the word of one person. and i never want to dismiss the pain of an individual. i never want to say that you should not -- that you should be afraid to come out. i have to question the fact that there is no other evidence and that we are watching commercials about this man as if he is a serial rapist. you know, someone once said where do i go to get my reputation back? that's a reasonable question to ask. >> and i hear all that. and i have to respect it. but what if she's right? what if this has validity? should she not have her day? because it was 30 years ago, does that mean -- >> she should have to prove it. >> -- she shouldn't bring it up right now? it's a tough place to be. too often in our society, women have not had their moment. you know, for -- even if -- women who have been done wrong

have not had their moment. i think sometimes the me too moment can go too far. but i think it goes too far in one direction because we've gone too far historically in the other direction. >> that doesn't mean serving justice on somebody who did nothing wrong. i understand people want redress, but that doesn't mean serving justice on somebody like that. and they deserve due process. >> let's talk about what is also the peril for pretty much -- what are there, 100 current u.s. senators. i had to think, 99 or 100. we're at 100. it's fraught with peril, especially for those who have been through this a second time. orrin hatch. i'll play you two clips, orrin hatch, then and now. it shows you how easily you can step in -- i'll call it a pot hole, if you will, on this issue. orrin hatch in '91 and today. here it is. >> one woman's allegations that are ten years old against your

lifetime of service over that same ten-year period. and i've known you almost 11 years. and the person that the good professor described is not the person i've known. >> whoever she is is mixed up and -- but i can't speak for her. all i can say is no, i don't. i know the judge very, very well. i know how honest he is. i know how straightforward he is. i know how he stands up for what he believes and what's right and, frankly, if you were going to believe anybody, you would believe him. >> look, to defend the senator here a little bit, he has chosen to speak about somebody's character. at the end of the day there's a lesson a lot of us have learned in our business, all of these businesses. you don't know what you don't know about somebody.

a professional relationship is not a personal relationship. >> that's right. and you heard him say i'm not going to speak for her, but she's mixed up. >> that's what happens. that is what creates the political peril. like with the president today. i feel sorry for him. here is the thing. if it's not true, i understand you saying that. show empathy for everybody right now. >> right, right. and/orr and orrin hatch is -- >> that's the peril here. that's what we learned f eed fr too. how many people spoke up for bill cosby that have regretted it? i've lifted him up somehow as a figure of fatherhood on a radio show. >> absolutely. >> lofved the guy. >> i'm not going to be somebody's character witness if i don't know them. >> i'm sure for many of these senators, judges are in that same vain.

>> also on their best behavior. >> but you don't know these people. you don't know what they do in the dark corners of they're life. >> and i don't want to. >> and the answer to that is when the senate judiciary decides it's relevant. >> we haven't talked about how much power this gives people, individuals. you know, i could turn around and say anything. i could say anything about any one of us, about anyone i've worked with and people would say, well, you know, that certainly deserves a hearing. okay. but maybe we need to have standards about this. maybe we all need to agree as a society that there are rules that we want to play by and that throwing accusations is a dangerous road to go down. >> let's be realistic. the larger issue is this whole process is broken. >> yeah. >> the judicial nomination process is broken. they can't handle this.

they can't handle anything these days, it seems, cornell. >> it's happening in a backdrop of a midterm election where women are already upset. >> that's right. i'm going to leave it there. danielle, cornell, shane, stick around with a sticky subject, you were a fabulous panel, important discussion. we'll talk to republican john kennedy of louisiana, so keep it here. -computer, order pizza. -of course, daniel. -fridge, weather. -clear skies and 75. -trash can, turn on the tv. -my pleasure. -ice dispenser, find me a dog sitter. -okay. -and make ice. -pizza delivered. -what's happened to my son? -i think that's just what people are like now. i mean, with progressive, you can quote your insurance on just about any device. even on social media. he'll be fine. -[ laughs ] -will he? -i don't know. -will he? what's going on? oh hey! ♪

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committee, we think. so, joining me now is one of the members of that committee, louisiana republican senator john kennedy. welcome back to the show, sir. >> thanks, chuck. >> i said we think because we know this hearing is scheduled but do you have an update of what you know about whether dr. ford will participate in this hearing yet? >> as of 12:15, when a number of republican members of the committee met with staff, with our staff, we had -- they had tried repeatedly to reach professor ford's attorney, i think miss katz, and hadn't been able to get through. hadn't heard back from her. we met -- by we, i mean the republican members of the committee met yesterday, decided we wanted to have a hearing, a public hearing. >> right. >> we offered thursday or monday to our democratic colleagues. i don't know who made the

decision but it was decided to do it on monday. today, we got an update and the only change that i know of is that we agreed to tell professor ford if she would rather do it in a private hearing, she can do it in a proist hearing. it's her choice, public or private. >> any reason why they scheduled the hearing before finding out if she was available? >> well, you've got to start somewhere. and the normal way that the senate committees work, at least my experience is, they set a date and say okay, here is the date and we expect everybody to be here. that's why, in part -- not a totally good reason but in part why we gave professor ford two different days. >> is there a deadline in your mind for her to agree or do you feel as if this should be scheduled until you gavel the hearing and if she's not there, then the hearing doesn't happen or when do you reassess whether

this hearing should take place? >> well, i'm going to see what happens monday. i hope professor ford comes. judge kavanaugh will be there. he has told me that personally. i mean, the process, as you know, is pretty much over, but the confirmation hearing is over. the confidential session that the senators have with the nominee is over. the fbi background investigation is over. the time period to submit written questions is over. professor ford has made these allegations. they should be taken seriously. i hope she coelects to come mony and, frankly, i hope she elects to do it in a public hearing. i think it's important for the american people to hear both professor ford and judge kavanaugh. >> interesting whether it should

be public or private. judge kavanaugh did practice sessions. he has basically done this before in some ways, is very prepared for a public setting. in the workplace when somebody makes an accusation like dr. ford did, you wouldn't put her in front of the board of directors of the company and say, okay, you're on firing line here. it's a tough thing to ask somebody to do, to go public like this. you really think it should be public and not private? >> i would prefer it be public. i think it's important for the american people to see both people and judge for themselves. but if professor ford says, look, i'm not comfortable in a public setting, i want to do it privately, i'll agree to that. my preference, though, is to do it publicly so that the american people can judge for themselves. >> what questions do you have for the professor? >> i don't have any questions yet. i want to hear her side of the story. i mean, you have to start

somewhere. most of the news that -- i'm a united states senator. i was elected by my people to advise and consent, and all the information i have so far is coming out of the -- i don't know, the new yorker and the washington post. and they're both fine periodicals but i would kind of like to hear it from dr. ford, hear what she -- hear her story. and then i want to hear the response of judge kavanaugh. every senator, i understand, if the proceeding is held as it normally is, is entitled to ask questions. i don't have a list of questions prepared, like i have for judge kavanaugh. i'm not interested in a cross examination or cultural or political combat. i'm interested in letting dr. ford have her say. i want to hear what she has to say. >> i'm sure this is not easy to articulate, so i'm giving you an out already, but how do you

judge -- when you decide someone is telling the truth or not? obviously you'll make an assessment. you will listen to her story. you read the washington post. you want to hear it straight from her not just the washington post. what goes through your head when you decide someone's telling the truth? >> well, i've never been on a jury. i always wanted to serve on a jury. i'm an attorney. a lot of times another attorney will strike an attorney from the jury pool. i just want to hear what the facts are, how much she remembers. is she sincere? i don't know. it's hard to describe. it's sort of like people watching this interview. you know, some people are going to say kennedy is full of bull or some people will say he made a good point or bad point. i don't think there's any rational process. it's sort of a human interaction. >> let me ask you this, the allegation is troubling enough to you that you think you need

to hear more from her. >> yeah. >> if her story is credible to you, does that have an impact on your vote? >> of course it does, but we're not there yet. i don't have enough -- i've been asked all day, and i understand why, to speculate. what if this happens and what if she says this and what if he says that? i honestly don't know. i just know what i've read in the media. i'm not saying i don't trust the media but i have to cast a vote here. if what appears to be a fine person has made -- i don't know her. she's a professor at an important university, has made a very serious allegation against a nominee that i was very impressed with. and i want to hear from both of them, and give them both the opportunity. i would rather do it in public, because i think the american people need to hear it. but if professor ford wants to do it privately -- and i can understand why she might -- i'll do it privately. i'll do it within reason whenever she wants to do it.

but everybody has to understand, this is not the start of this process. it's at the very end. >> are there going to be other witnesses? i saw there was some thought of other witnesses, perhaps mr. judge, who she says was an eyewitness. i know he put out a letter but do you want other witnesses at this hearing? >> you know, i want to hear from the -- i'm told i'm not supposed to use these terms, but the accused and the accuser. i think i'm being fair to both of them. i want to start with them. i don't have enough information to decide whether we need to have other witnesses. i just know secondhand what the allegations are. i need to hear the allegations from the person making them. >> have you asked brett kavanaugh directly, since she's reached out to you, whether any of this is true? >> yes, i have. >> and what was his answer to you? >> very firm no, absolutely not.

he is committed. i mean, he wants to come testify. i think he would do it this afternoon if we could get him scheduled. he didn't hedge, not a bit, chuck. >> all right. senator kennedy, i'm going to leave it there. it's going to be a long week, i'm guessing, before we ghetto monday. appreciate you coming out and doing the interviews. >> thank you, chuck. still, the president's war on the justice department. we'll have that next. (roger) being a good father is important to me so being diagnosed with advanced non-small cell lung cancer made me think of all the things that i wanted to teach my kids. (avo) another tru story with keytruda. (roger) my doctor said i could start on keytruda so i did. with each scan things just got better. (avo) in a clinical study, keytruda offered patients a longer life than chemotherapy. and it could be your first treatment. keytruda is for adults with non-small cell lung cancer that has spread... ...who test positive for pd-l1 and whose tumors do not have an abnormal "egfr" or "alk" gene.

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first half of the president's first term. we pointed it out this morning. then a woman upends a u.s. supreme court nomination with allegations against clarence thomas. now, claims against brett kavanaugh. that's bush 41. how about then, special prosecutor investigates president of the united states. how about now? special counsel investigates the president of the united states. that's borrowing from nixon. hurricane katrina. now, an administration is criticized for its response to a catastrophic storm, hurricane maria. bush 43. how about a military raid in iran goes terribly wrong.

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it's not just going to be about economic growth and running on the economy. it's also going to be about what the other side did to play dirty, to dirty up a campaign, but not do it through campaign tactics, but do it by corrupting the fbi and the doj. that is important for the american people to know. and we have to deliver that message going into october. and i am very, very hopeful that the president will make these

additional declassifications over the coming weeks. >> well, there you go. that was house intel chairman devin nunes last thursday and his wish came true just four days later, when president trump, citing the need for transparency, called for the release of highly classified documents and texts related to the fbi investigation. among those documents he want release rd portions of fisa warrant to messages relating to the investigation by peter strok, lisa paige, james comey, andrew mcabe and bruce ohr. very much a campaign sort of implication that they view this as a political act here. explain why the law enforcement community is so concerned about what the president has done.

>> there's an immediate reason and there's a long-term reason. the immediate reason, lots of folks are speaking to this, there might be operational details or sources and methods in the classified documents that we simply don't want to make public. it's trade craft. that's never a good idea. >> let me pause you there. the outing of mr. halper, who was obviously an asset in the uk, has ended his ability to be an asset. correct? >> for instance. >> okay. >> there's a long-term damage, too. there's a long-term danger. we share information with countries around the world. for instance, we're part of the five eyes, the five closest all is in the world in terms of intelligence sharing, uk, new zealand, australia, canada and the united states. >> the english-speaking western all i allies? >> what would we think if we gave something incredibly sensitive to canada and they dumped it in their sphere for

partisan political reasons? how likely would we be to give them more stuff? that's the long-term danger. we rely not just on our own intelligence collection abilities but the intelligence collection abilities of our closest allies around the world and promise to protect that stuff. >> there seems to be the office of the department of national intelligence put out this statement. as requested by the white house, do. the odni is working expeditiously with our interagency partners. we want to slow walk this and hope that the president is okay with us slow walking this. is that what's happening? >> well, what is probably happening is that they're hoping that, you know, thoughtful, reasoned reaction will prevail. they can go back to the president and say, look, we understand you want all this stuff. >> here it is. we'll show you what it is but here's what we don't want?

>> but there's some stuff in here we just can't release because others have equities in it. maybe it's the brits. maybe it's the aussies. when i worked for bob mueller and his staff after 9/11, i reviewed hundreds of fisas before he certified as to their legality and their completeness. there is incredibly sensitive stuff in there. this is not a political game. this is intelligence. intelligence professionals care deeply about keeping secrets secret. >> i want to play for you something jay sekulow said to the legal defense of president trump. take a listen. >> this means the american people will find out what this was, what started all this and what was going on. i suspect that they're going to find this was not only a rigged investigation, as some people have called it, but it may be much, much worse than that. >> what does it tell you? this is where it's awkward. here, you have essentially the

president's lawyers are begging the president to help them gather evidence. >> look, without getting overly technical here, and overly nerdy, there is a procedure, if evidence is classified, to declassify it for use in the criminal trial. >> right. >> a defendant can take advantage of it. a prosecutor can take advantage of it. it's called the classification procedures act. you don't do that by dumping it into the public record. you do that in a thoughtful, studied way in front of a federal judge. and we can do that. we do that all the time in federal court. >> the releasing of text messages, and he added people we have not -- obviously lisa paige and peter strzok messages is something he loves to talk about but he threw in bruce ohr, andrew mccabe and jim comey. >> text messages are not classified. you couldn't share classified

information in that way over an unclass phone line. >> one would assume it's only supposed to be relevant text messages. >> one would assume that. if but if they're looking to hurt people, it's always easy to take something out of context. this, to me, is a political imperative, politically driven imperative and that's unfortunate. >> i want to ask you something having to do with fbi background checks. it came up with swrunlg kavanaugh. here is what the president said earlier today. >> are think the fbi really should be involved because they don't want to be involved. if they wanted to be i would certainly do that. as you know, they say this is not really their thing. >> you said that is not correct, that actually that is not how the procedure works. chief of staff to james comey at the fbi. so you know something. >> and also worked for robert mueller at the fbi. it's the federal bureau of investigation. it's not the federal bureau of we don't want to do this because we don't feel like it. here is how it works. background investigation is completed.

it's sent to the white house. it's for their review and their decision. if something arises, either in that background or later, right, something supplemental, as has happened here, the white house can always go back to the fbi and say you know that thing we just learned about chuck todd, thanks to you, we would like you to look at it further. >> so it's the president's decision whether he wants this investigated? >> the white house can ask for more. if the white house asks for more, the fbi investigates. >> they don't say we don't want to do this one? >> we don't feel like it. we're kind of busy. long lunch today. it's the federal bureau of investigation. >> this is on the white house, if they want to investigate it, they can order the fbi to do it, bottom line? >> bottom line. >> thank you for coming out and sharing your expertise. >> can complacency cost the party control of both houses of congress? but allstate actually helps you drive safely...

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today we've been telling you about the blue wave this november but president trump's insistence that there may be a red wave could end up backfiring for his party. there's been a poll conducted for the rnc, obtained by our friends at bloomberg business week. most supporters of president trump do not think there's a threat that democrats will win back the house.

it showed that 71% said republicans would win. however 57% of trump supporters said they don't believe that they have a chance. democratic wave election with some describing the process as, quote, fake news. there is a balance between projecting confidence and luling people into a false sense of complacency. now republicans are scrambling to drive out the president's voter voters on election day. if you're the president's supporters, you were told he couldn't win and he won, so maybe that's why they're complacent? we'll be right back with more. r, but i'm relentless too. mbc doesn't take a day off, and neither will i. and i treat my mbc with new everyday verzenio-

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>> our panel is back, cornell, shane and danielle. this is something we've been hearing about for some time. this concern. it's just like you dealt with in the obama era, right? there are obama voters and democratic voters and they don't always overlap. and there are trump voters and republican voters and they don't always overlap. >> i think that is true here. newsflash, trump voters are not connected to reality situation. but also, chuck, remember, for core trump voters it's not like trump himself has been in love with mitch mcconnell and speaker ryan either. he routinely goes after -- >> it's a routine complaint from house republicans, stop trashing us. >> so why would hard-core trump voters be energized to save mitch mcconnell and speaker ryan? there is a blue wave. and i think things are looking that way. although i'm not completely sold on it. if there is a blue wave, part of

that blue wave happens because those trump voters sit on their hands. >> waves only happens when both things occur, turn up on one side and turn down on the other side and this is the first time you're like oh, i didn't -- i hadside. i'd seen evidence, yes, democratic turnout was but republican was hanging in there. >> i would say there's a complacency problem on the left as well, which is -- you're the most rational i've heard, per usual about this, which is i'm not sure there's going to be a blue wave. if you're sitting around and watch the emmys, if you're listening to barack obama, if you know that hillary clinton's written a new foreword or endword to her book, these people forget, they are the reason that trump won. they're going to help donald trump and his party, i say that loosely, win in the midterms. >> it's fascinating that donald

trump is too persuasive for he is own good, right? it's very interesting timing that this poll comes out now as a way of saying, yeah, whatever the president's saying, you need to vote, forget the red wave stuff. maybe he clues in as well. he's a master at shaping this narrative. it is fascinating to me as somebody who covers him day to day to see how it's playing out in these numbers that people are believing him when he says, don't worry, we've got this sewn up. there's an effect to that. >> i had a republican pollster say to me, i'm not counting on trump because the trump voters doesn't like anybody in congress. when you have this conversation about a check on trump, they say, oh, trump is a check on the swamp. trump is a check on speaker pelosi, or speaker ryan. >> it also doesn't help you where most of these battlegrounds are, right? most of these battlegrounds are districts that are suburban, upscale districts, and more urban areas. the suburban -- the way the suburb suburban, college-educated women are breaking away from the

republican party, i didn't see that in 2006. why i think democrats still need to work on it is because of obama voters, because of those young voters who said, i like barack obama, i'm not in love with the democratic party, even though the democrats are more in line with them. i think we have to work hard to turn young obama voters out or we'll have the 2010 or 2014 electorate and we lose if we have that. >> no doubt there. i guess the question is, if trump plays the martyr in the last three weeks, meaning you don't come out, they're coming after me, does that do it? >> well, i -- i have no insight into how donald trump thinks about anything. i just want to make that absolutely clear to everybody. including you out there. >> i think ivanka trump would say the same thing in fairness, okay? i don't think anybody can understand that. >> so yeah, he could make the case. but you know, i could equally easily see him saying to himself, nah, you know what, it

will be good for me in 2020 is to have the democrats in the house, and the democrats in the senate, that's a slam dunk for me. >> it's funny you say that. shane, i think -- he does sort of -- he only thinks one step ahead but that would be the type of step ahead he would be thinking. >> yeah, but if you had democrats in control, does he understand if they control congress, the torpedo coming at him? >> donald trump has never lost. in his mind. so why would that make him fear? >> no -- >> he went bankrupt, his bankers let him off the hook. >> he thinks he's killing it all time. >> he said a show canceled and he said, no, it's number one. >> turn that frown upside down. >> sign the infrastructure bill democrats put in front of him? i bet he would. >> exactly. impeachment -- remember, wait, the constitution is pretty clear. bill clinton got impeached.

you got to be convicted. i think donald trump can feel pretty comfortable. don't you agree with me? that's not going to happen. >> 67, unless there's some massive new revelation -- >> i don't know. >> it's going to happen. >> in fairness -- i'm sorry, i think the calculation on all of that changes if democrats also win the senate. even if it's by a vote. i'm just saying, lots of calculations change. >> i say democrats win the senate by one seat. >> we shall see. there you go we'll hold you to that one. cornell, shane, thank you all, tremendous panel. up ahead, "chuck talk." hey allergy muddlers.

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[ sobs quietly ]

in case you missed it, the nation is overwhelmed by all the speculation. everyone is talking about it. wherever i go. the story of the moment. which toy will be inducted into the national toy hall of fame? yes, each year the strong museum in upstate new york announces a new inductees into its hallowed, geometric halls. it began in 1998. frisbees, marbles, legos. this year the nominees include the magic 8-ball, tickle me elmo, and chalk. chalk, really. the official writing implement of academics everywhere. the cylinders of misery synonymous with tension, and even worse, calculus. chalk? hop-scotch fans may disagree. i would argue chalk is not a toy. how did it become a toy hall of

fame nominee? who is behind all of this? >> children, they're just like us. but smaller. and good children deserve good toys. but try telling that to big talc. big talc, the shadowy group behind chalk. you remember chalk. those impossible math problems. these endless detentions. the screech. the dust. all brought to you by big talc. now big talc wants chalk inducted into the national toy hall of fame? chalk. in the hall of fame. with real toys like hula hoop and ball. chalk. a toy? what's next? dry erase markers? that's not american. that's amer ruti aga-can't. tell washington that big talc needs to stay after school. americans for real toys is

responsible for the content of this advertising. >> oh, nigel and mr. tony. that's all for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow. "the beat with ari melber" starts right now. we begin with pressure on donald trump's supreme court pick. an eruption of turmoil that could threat ton derail the entire nomination. the big question tonight is will professor ford, who says cavenaugh sexual assaulted her when they were in high school, testify under oath? cavenaugh has taken to the camp he is eager to defend himself at monday's scheduled hearing and he denies this the allegation. and there are other seriously contested issues that are important tonight, including a new demand from democrats the cambridge analytica reopen the probe into cavenaugh. here's trump. >> the fbi said they don't do that, that's not what they do. he's an