question caso where do you e heading in to thursday? >> on thursday we'll see if the rule of law holds in this country. it is bound to be a momentous day. >> for both stories. >> absolutely. >> we'll be roping you into service all day. my thanks to sam, bret, steve, joyce. that does it for our hour. hi, chuck. sorry that i think folks captured weird facial expressions of mine. >> people would pay money to see your tweeweird -- i would. >> well, maybe you would. yellow, yellow, yellow, i'll let this go. >> you said it, not me. >> yes, ma'am. if it is tuesday, judge kavanaugh takes a page from the trump playbook. ♪ good evening. i i'm chuck todd. we begin about a pr blitz, a blitz aimed at trying to ram

through the president's embattled supreme court pick brett kavanaugh now facing two allegations of sexual misconduct ahead of this thursday's public testimony. and there might be a third according to an attorney for a woman who has yet to come forward. but folks, it has been 24 hours of what you might cause a shock and awe strategy from the judge mt himself, the president, and white house communications team and senate seemingly trying to shore up the base which didn't make kavanaugh more confirmable, but this is a base strategy right now. the airways are awash in a trump style playbook of denials, counter strikes, claims of conspiracy and attacks on kavanaugh's accusers. the president questioned both the claims of christine blasey ford and deborah ramirez who alleges that he may have exposed himself to her in college. all of which kavanaugh strenuously denies. >> 36 years ago?

nobody ever knew about it. and now a new charge comes up and she said, well, it might not be him and there were gaps and she said she was totally in-eeb br brie -- in-eeb brie 80sed, but it might have been him. oh, ghee, let's not make him a supreme court judge. it would be a horrible insult to our country if doesn't hatch. t -- happen. the second accuser admits that she was drunk. >> the president today also blasted democrats who have rallied behind kavanaugh's accusers. >> i think it is horrible what the democrats have done. it is a con game they are playing. they are really con artists. they are playing a con game. and they play it very well, much better than republicans. and the democrats are playing a con game. c-o-n, con game.

they know takes con game. th they know he is high quality. and they we cann they weaken ea. >> and we've seen senate leadership and the white house communications team also lash out with their fiercest attacks yet on democrats. >> everyone by the fn by the fa standards, this shameful smear campaign has hit a new low. >> i think it is disgusting that they have exploited these individuals and their families for their own political purposes. >> liberal democrats have been coordinating an effort to bring these accusations forward at the 11th hour. we believe in the man and his record. >> and folks, pretty much everything you've heard follows kavanaugh himself playing something that i don't think that we've ever seen a support court nominee do, playing the part of partisan warrior by going on fox news last night. >> i am looking for a fair process, a process where i can

defend my integrity and clear my name. i've sexually assaulted anyone in high school or otherwise. i'm not going to let false accusations drive us out of this process. i'm not going anywhere. >> joined by tonight's panel. and matthew, do you buy our take here that whatever uncertainty we had about kavanaugh, there is no uncertainty now, the party is now united at doing whatever it takes to get him confirmed. >> i thinks second allegation from ms. ramirez in the "new yorker" had perhaps the unintended consequence of rallying the conservative base around judge kavanaugh's nomination. when it was dr. ford versus kavanaugh, i think there was great trepidation among the

republican party, a willingness to have her have her say to treat her as accusers should be treated fairly. once the "new yorker" piece came out, there was media criticism on the right of that piece, that then spurred republicans to say we demand a vote on judge kavanaugh whether or not he makes it or not, and if we don't get that vote, if the nomination is withdrawn, then you can kiss the base good-bye in november. >> it does -- it is as if -- mitch mcconnell said if we're going to get punished, at least get the person on the court. >> because there is no easy way out. yes, republicans need moderate suburban women who are moving toward democratic senate candidates, but they also need the conservative base to show up. they can't take them for granted. and something like this where the conservative base is very at tune to the courts in a way that

the democratic base is not. so he view this is as the single greatest chief mts. if you wants to take a bullet no something, he might do it for this. >> and it feels as if it is all risk for mcconnell. risk if you pull it, risk if you fights for it. feels like -- the question is, what is worse. >> what is worse is losing and for all the reasons that has been said. he just has no choice but to fight. but i think we really need to make sure that we don't lose track of the real shift in strategy from the republicans. because it feels like months ago, but it was just last week that the strategy laid out by kellyanne conway and executed by others including amazingly the president was respectful, people should be heard, let them have their voice and their agency and everybody seemed very not totally woke, but at least going along with the game. all of a sudden we're back to

vast left wing conspiracy. >> isn't it what matthew pointed out? it is the "new yorker" allegation seemed to spark this. >> and i understand the reaction to the "new yorker" allegation and the weakness of the corroboration, but i also think it is necessaryitated that you have a two front war. you can't just start to talk about these other series of women needing to be heard. you need to start attacking the dnl democrats. which also means attacking the women themselves. not a good idea. >> i think the attitude on the right was that the democratic strategy since day one of these hearings has been to delay the nomination past the election in the hopes that the senate is captured by the democrats and then they can hold that seat open they'recentliptreceipt -- theoretically for two years.

i think when ford came out, grassley said we need to take this allegation seriously. he had the unusual tweets remember right before they finally reached the commitment, the commitment for her to appear on thursday. and within 24 hours of florida commitment, the second accuser comes forward in a "new yorker" article that the "new york times" says it did not go with because it could not find corroboration. >> a busk of nch of us were worn that. >> and it hardened the resolve for people who already voted for kavanaugh to begin with, but it won't move susan collins or lisa murkowski. >> how big is the undecided list? we were joking off air. you said maybe it was just murkowski. but i think that it is as many as five. and i put in ben sasse in there. he is a wild card in here that i'm curious about.

jeff flake, murdkowskimurkowski. >> they would likely be the first dominos to fall, but there are others who have not stated their support who are watching to see what happens. and it is hard to overstate how crew sham thucial this hearing . >> and i think the power of -- think about the difference between when she was anonymous and when she came forward to the "washington post" and had specific allegations that she was willing to put her name to. that really shifted the calculus of power in terms of the liability in which this nomination was. i think we could see the same difference when she goes public, if she looks credible, if she seems really just overwhelmed by this in a way that kind of breaks people's hearts out there watching her, it could really --

>> and we've seen how he is -- >> well, and there were moments in that interview last night that were quite emotional. and it played well. >> and that is what i'm curious about, this decision to do what no supreme court nominee has ever done. and it is to sort of fight for your in the political square. it is an interesting decision. and i say this because i want to play for you something brett kavanaugh said in his opening statement on september 4. here it is. >> a good judge must be an umpire. a neutral and impartial arbiter who favors no litigant or policy. the supreme court must never be viewed as a partisan institution. the justices on the supreme court do not sit on opposite sides of an aisle. they do not caucus in separate rooms. >> it was jarring to see him not even sit in front with the fox news journalist, but with one of the opinion show hosts.

and not go to a cbs or pbs, somewhere else as well if he was going to do this. does it make him a partisan lawyer now? >> i think the court itself has revealed itself to be a partisan battleground as a result of this. >> we wish it weren't though. we are all high minded -- >> we wish it weren't. the reality of this debate has become that that is exactly what it is. it is a high stakes political campaign and i believe kavanaugh's frustration stems from the fact that he feels that he has been denied the opportunity to defend himself for over a week. and it was only in this shift of strategy that now people are backing his claim and he is coming forward with his own defense. >> it is interesting when bill clinton was first accused by monica lewinsky, i think he went to pbs. right? to do his-of- >> almost like a neutral ground. >> neutral territory. and in a world where the news cycle is so quick and you need to defend yourself, and i

thought his appearance was quite powerful. especially alongside his wife. i sort of don't be grudge a nominee in this environment doing something that no nominee has done before. i do think the choice of fox was a little hard to square with the supreme court. come on. >> let me bring up something from the interview which is something that this was a blanket denial that i have a feeling is going to get cross-examined a lot on thursday. let me play it. >> nothing ever physical, you never met her, never kissed her, never touched her? >> correct. i never sexually assaulted anyone. i did not have sexual intercourse or anything close to sexual intercourse in high school or for many years there after. >> was there ever a time that you drank on so much sha you couldn that you couldn't remember what

happened before? >> no. that never happened. >> so it is complete blanket denials. like there is one picture being painted of him as to be generous the frat boy who maybe drinks too much. he is painting a picture that says i wasn't even that. i'm not anything near even what my friend wrote in his book. >> he has not left himself any wiggle room here. he has categorically denied that any of this happened. there is no this part might have happened but i didn't do that. he will categorically deny it. he can't back off from that. christine blasey ford will testify and people will have to decide who to believe here. big picture, him going on fox news, it is a function of the fact that a nothing about this is convention alleal anymore. we are in the wild, wild west of senate jew dishudicial wars. >> and it goes that it was a big battle for the base.

you have right now -- up until this week you had the left mobilized, you had the central mobilized. he is polarizing now and so going to fox is to remind the republican viewers that these are the stakes and you can believe me. >> but i go back to that blanket denial because he makes that and then a college roommate of his who told an abc affiliate -- let me play the bite. >> i am looking for a fair process. all i'm asking for is a fair process. america is about fairness. i want a fair process. in america, we have fairness. fair process. a fair process and have a fair process. a fair process. >> where is this all coming from? >> i just want a fair process where i can be heard. >> you don't have any thoughts on where this is coming from? >> i just want a fair process where i can be heard, defend my integrity. >> that was a separate bite that

i wanted to play later. he seemed a bit robotic. but here's what i was looking for in that is from his college roommate. although brett was normally reserved, he was notably a heavy dre drinker. i did not observe the specific incident in question. but i do remember brett frequently drinking excessively and beingabout incoherently drunk. when you play that where he said, no, i don't behave that way -- >> he said that he had never -- to the interviewer's credit, she asked him whether he had ever drunk to the point that he could not remember the next day what he had done. so again i think we are condemned to be litigating his high school behavior. >> and this is my fear. >> we don't want to do that. >> and i would argue that maybe that is the part of this that i don't get why he is not owning up to that.

>> first of all, he had already engaged -- the categorical denial predated the fox appearance. yes, he did it on video, but he had already been pretty categorical before that. why he felt the need to kind of go further and say, well, in high school i was just the guy who studied and did sports and went to church on sundays and presented himself that way, when i think that the year book and the college behavior suggests something otherwise and the 100 keg club. why would you -- >> it seems unnecessary. that is what i don't get here. >> he also said it in that interview that we do things in high school that we don't always like to look back on and such. i think that he didn't foreclose the possibility that he ever drank. what he is denying is that he is drinking to the point that he would blackout, which of course would suggest that there might be more credit ability to dr. ford's story. so i think if he look at his answers closely, he is not denying being a drinker and of course that is not what is at stake here. you can't --

>> not at all. but my point is he may potentially allow this to then create credibility questions about other things. >> no one would hold that against him. he said yes, i was in high school, i dwrank a f drank a fe happens. whatever he wants to say. but the trying to present is i was a boy scout and went to church. >> and you can imagine a lot of cross-examination about that when he testifies. >> and that could get us down a stupid rabbit hole. i get that. and that is what has been potentially opened up here. all right. you guys are sticking around. up next, defending judge kavanaugh, we'll hear from one of the nominee's most voe ccal supporters.

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welcome back. as wec we said, judge kavanaugh defended himself against allegations of sexual misconduct. the first time we heard from him in his own voice about the allegations. but far from the first tv defense of judge kavanaugh. the judicial crisis network has been defending him since christine blasey ford's accusations first became public more than a week ago. spending $1.5 million to do so. and with me now is chief counsel and policy director for the judicial crisis network, also a former clerk for justice clarence thomas. thank you for coming on. let me start with who is going to question on thursday. i know we know that senate

republicans have outside counsel, they have not told us who it is. do you have any awareness? >> i don't know who it is either. they say that they have to protect her name for her security and certainly with everyone in this process having received all sorts of threats from judge kavanaugh, dr. ford, everyone, that sounds plausible to me. but i'm not sure who it is. it is someone with experience though with prosecutings kinds of crimes that dr. ford has alleged. it will be someone let's just sats wi say with more experience than your typical judiciary member which is someone everyone complains about. >> but getting outside counsel is unusual. >> it happens. >> like 1973 i think. >> it has happened. >> an unusual thing. why shouldn't -- i get having maybe her as some k some of the sensitive questions. but these are the people that represent actual americans. should they be involved in the questioning as well.

>> i've seen a lot of people said that wouldn't this all just be better if each side appointed someone do this. and i think it is really true. senator collins early on said that how about to try to pry vents some of the circus each side just appoint someone because you have have a more company here line of questioning rather than just a few -- >> as somebody involved in a lot of press conferences, coherent questioning does matter. >> so that is exactly the problem that you have. and so that it would be much better if both sides were willing to do that. you could get a coherent theme, you could get someone who knows the issue very well and could come back with the followup questions. democrats in particular i think right now because there are several 2020 contender, they don't want to lose their opportunity to ask questions. and a lot of people said that it will make more sense to have a woman particularly can understand where dr. ford is. so for her interests of saying i want someone who will be respectful to me and understands

that, if you have somebody who has been through those cases particularly on the side of the woman before, i think that will help make sure that she is going to be given the absolute respect in this. >> how is in anything other than he said/she said at the end? what are you going ask americans, how is it that you can feel comfortable knowing that we'll know what the actual truth is? >> well, due to the nature of the claim, they are vague and old, it is very challenging. plaurply due to the fact this t way democrats chose to carry this out, we didn't have the opportunity to look at some of these witnesses before. for example everything blew up in the media. however you do -- >> does it matter to you you -- i thought it was very interesting in her letter to senator grassley, dr. ford essentially said i tried to raise this before it became an issue, i tried to raise it at a time before he was even picked to hope that you didn't pick him. >> i think if senator feinstein had taken those claims as she

shood ha should have and said shear something that we should dig in to further, that would have been better for everyone around. for judge kavanaugh, for dr. ford herself, it would have been better for the supreme court, the senate process. that has all been dragged through the mud. but i do think that everyone that she has identified as either an eyewitness or someone who was at the party has said we don't remember this party or her friend leland says i don't really know kavanaugh, this didn't add up to me. so i think that also adds to the question. you have his calendars which don't proof anything, but one piece of evidence saying he wasn't even there for most of the summer she is talking about. this party didn't get on the calendar. he was at other parties. not open and shut, but every single piece of evidence we've seen i think particularly the

alleged witnesses, that is pretty strong and makes the story -- amplifies the hole in the story. >> the add that features louisa guery, is that still run something. >> that had to do with a specific letter regarding the "new yorker" allegations. she wasn't an eyewitness. no, the ad -- i saw it i think as recently as yesterday. >> she has not asked you to pull it? >> no, she still stands behind everything that she says. which is that she knows brett kavanaugh for decades and says this is someone who is fair, even handed, the kind of judge we should look for. >> it feels like everybody is in a hurry to get this done. why? i mean is this really about november? republicans and democrats. >> i'm not are sure the democrats are in a hurry to get this done. >> no, meaning but everything is about november. democrats want to delay. republicans want to hurry up and get it done. >> i don't think that is it.

some of the democrats certainly want to delay it until november, let's win the senate and then block -- >> and republicans are like hurry up and get him confirmed yesterday. >> no, two weeks ago a man's name was dragged through the mud and he has been the subject of a democrat smear campaign for the last two weeks. full-time. >> are you confident this is a smear campaign and not any truth to this? >> i am, but let's give her the hearing and let's get to that point. until we do, we are all left speculating and it is a media circus. so i think again also in dr. ford's best interests to get to this hearing, have the opportunity to tell her perspective so that we can move past this. >> and should we have made r

rear-the second accuse, should she of it? >> the serious is the investigation that she are trying to carry out. if she mass further testimony to put in, they would love to have that testimony. and they said then they would determine whether they -- >> so they are looking for deposition type testimony. >> and so they would have to see that there was something that she was willing to stand by under penalty of felony. >> so would it be worth it? >> i think the extra fbi investigation we needed is the one in july when senator feinstein received this. >> we should have done it. >> and then you could have had it -- >> why not now? >> here is why it would have been useful. the fbi could have interviewed people untainted by all of the chaos. that is when it is valuable. this is why in an actual trial you would have the witnesses separated from each other, you

sequester the jury so they are not distracted by all the news and fed by the news rather than the actual thing. the fbi could have asked them questions. n democrats blew up that process. there is no way that they could do it. led me read what you senator biden said that during anita hill hearings. he said fbi report as being worth anything, they don't understand anything. the fbi does not in this or any other case reach a conclusion, period. that was senator biden. >> all right. thanks for coming on. much appreciate it. up ahead, there is a cloud hanging over washington. and i'm not just talking about this horrible gloomy weather. well, yes, i am. "what is your nationality?" and i would always answer, "hispanic." so, when i got my ancestrydna results it was a shocker! i'm everything, i'm from all nations. i would look at forms now and wonder, what do i mark?

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welcome back. tonight i'm obsessed with what is going on outside here. but also what is going on inside here. and here. and here. the weather in weighing washingt -- washington, d.c. has been lousy, gloomy and clouds. it is as if the actual weather is reflecting the political weather happening right here in your nation's capital. maybe we should call it a category d.c. storm. in fact d.c. weather experts say this is the fact. this is not the onion here. the sky at noon has been overcast for 70% of the time for this entire month of is september. normally by the way it is just

27%. and guess what, the exclusive doppler radar 3,000 didn't show much improvement at all. mostly cloudy skies continue tonight and tomorrow. but then look at this, a huge change that happens on thursday. a cold front descends and the gradient pressure increases dramatically, clouds give way to scattered rosenstein's. parts of washington face the threat of ef-4 kavanaugh. you will wish it was mostly cloudy. i'm not meteorologist, but i play on one on tv and trust me, just waeeights wait until thurs will be a messy one. , even if it's a better car class than the one you reserved. so no matter what, you're guaranteed to have a perfect drive. [laughter]

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in active shooters and natural disasters. vote yes on 11 to ensure 911 emergency care is there when you or your love one need it. welcome back. as we have been saying, tensions are building ahead of thursday's hearing. mitch mcconnell echoed judge kavanaugh's claim that the accusations are a smear

campaign. >> as he come in his own letter to chairman grassley yesterday, the weaponization, the weaponization of unsubstantiated smears, that is what we have here, the weaponization of unsubstantiated smears will dissuade competent and good people of all political persuasion from service. >> the senate democratic leader chuck schumer fired back. >> leader mcconnell owes an apologize to dr. ford for labels her allegations a smear job. >> i'm joined now by dick durbin member of the judiciary committee and the number two member in the democratic leadership. good to see you. >> good to be with you. >> well, i know that you have heard the news that the senate republicans have hired outside counsel, it is my understanding that you have not been informed or hadn't been informed as of a couple hours ago.

have you been informed since? >> no. and we're still waiting. this mystery guest will appear thursday. i hope that we learn who it is ahead of time. >> do you think democrats on the judiciary committee should appoint one person to ask questions? i had a guest who said that maybe it will make a more coherent round of questioning anyway. how do the democrats plan to handle this? >> listen, chuck, i spent a long time running for the senate and hoping to the on the senate judiciary committee to serve at historic moments like this. it wasn't delegate this authority some lawyer at this point. i think that our committee is prepared do this in a professional way. we'll treat both witnesses with respect. and we'll try to establish the facts as best we can. and then come to a conclusion about whether or brett kavanaugh should be given this promotion to the highest court on the land. >> on how are you going to

decide the credibility of the accusation and the denial? what are you looking for? because beyond -- we don't have -- we bont hawon't have th evidence beyond a reasonable doubt. so what are you looking for? >> you look for the testimony of the people under oath. they understand the seriousness of this. as far as dr. ford is concerned, i've always thought she has everything to lose and nothing to gain by stepping forward and telling a story. look what she's been through. she's been ridiculed by the president. her family had to move out of their home because of death threats. she faced all sorts of charges many false. and she had to know that going in, yet she felt it was important enough to share her experience. that says a lot about her credibility. as far as judge kavanaugh is concerned, he has denied that anything happened and we'll wait and hear his testimony.

>> and in her letter to senator grassley, dr. ford indicated that she was trying to get this on the radar of official washington before judge kavanaugh was actually nominated. the is system in that sense didn't work in time. why? >> well, i'm not sure the system is really prepared for a what we are now facing. the "me too" movement and the disclosures that are coming forward are fairly unique in american political history. you have to go back 27 years on the supreme court to the anita hill episode -- >> let me pause you there. is did you unique shouldn't that have been after that episode the time that the united states senate said you know what, we got to figure out how to deal with allegations like this? >> i don't question what you just said. i think we could have done a better job over the years. but in all the honesty, look at every aspect of our public life whether talking about business or religion or politics, this is all emerging. constantly emerging.

we're learning day to day that there are facts in the history of this country and the history of individuals who no one had an idea. >> kellyanne conway sid something interesting. she said that if you take the accusations at face value, one thing that is different about judge kavanaugh and these accusations versus the "me too" movement is that he didn't do this when he had power. and i guess the question is this, when should actions in high school and college matter 30 years later and when shouldn't they? or should they always? what is that test now? >> chuck, i tell you, this is different than the usual situation of complaints about a person seeking a higher position or higher office. i really step back here. we've had the people, the political tribes break either favoring kavanaugh or opposed to kavanaugh. but you speaking to my own staff and friends and people, people are more open telling me things

about themselves than they have ever told anyone. we at a point in life where we are looking at thing from his a new perspective. and people are finally summoning the courage to step up and say things which are hard as heck to say. and they just believe they have to be said. and so this is a new moment. new generation of thinking. to finally come to grips with this challenge. >> would you open an investigation into a justice kavanaugh if he sort of -- if he ends up getting confirmed, if we sort of feel -- if you feel as if this was a political push, after thursday, everybody got into their corners, it is a partisan confirmation, 50/50 or 51-49, would you open -- reopen the inquiry if democrats took back the senate? >> let me tell you that at this point, i'm not at that stage. you are a couple steps ahead of the reality of what we face. a hearing with dr. ford as women

as judge kavanaugh. and then the committee meeting. and then the floor consideration. then the final vote. several stages ahead. and each of these witnesses who will appear before us on thursday will be under oath to tell the truth. i tho i hope that they do and i hope that we come to a conclusion. in terms of investigati in terms of future investigations, i don't want to go there. >> one other future question. if democrats win the senate, are you open to bringing back the filibuster? because a lot of us believe if the filibuster -- if it was a 630 on vote threshold, this would be a different process. >> interesting. a republican senator this morning in the gym raised the same question with me. and i said i think that we're learning our lesson here. that eliminating the fill luster on the supreme court and maybe other federal court positions has really created a much more political process. it is better for us to move toward something that is

bipartisan and try to find more moderate people to serve on our fer federal judiciary. >> thank you, sir. appreciate it. up ahead, brand new poll numbers and two of the most important midterm states that cycle. right now, it is good news for one side. we'll be right back. we know soo every chip will crack. these friends were on a trip when their windshield got chipped. so they scheduled at safelite.com. they didn't have to change their plans or worry about a thing. i'll see you all in a little bit. and i fixed it right away with a strong repair they can trust. plus, with most insurance a safelite repair is no cost to you. >> customer: really?! >> tech: being there whenever you need us that's another safelite advantage. >> singers: safelite repair, safelite replace. ...to give you the protein you need with less of the sugar you don't. i'll take that. [cheers] 30 grams of protein and 1 gram of sugar.

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there are elections happening very soon, tonight we have a couple brand new poll numbers out of two of the most critical midterm states. first, to florida where democrats are now ahead in both of the competitive senate and gubernatorial races. among likely voters, andrew gil l gillum leads by five points. and bill nelson leads rick scott by three. yes, that is narrow. first time we've had nelson with any kind of spread at all. been good news for democrat, but florida is the ultimate swing state. so that means it swings with the news and news have been you tough for republicans. particularly in florida. think about puerto rico. so the democrats weren't up in the polls in florida right now, that actually would be a major cause for concern for the democrats. now let's go to the other tax free retirement state, state of arizona. the closely watched senate race is a statistical tie. tells you that negative campaign

is working on the republican side. a two way race, democrat kirsten sin macinema is up by just thre polls. but the big story in arizona may be favorability. sinema has a much higher favorite able ability rating about. look no further than those numbers why mcsally has been running negative campaigns.

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stick with zyrtec® and muddle no more®. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your healthcare business. so that if she has a heart problem & the staff needs to know, they will & they'll drop everything can you take a look at her vitals? & share the data with other specialists yeah, i'm looking at them now. & they'll drop everything hey. & take care of this baby yeah, that procedure seems right. & that one too. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & when your patient's tests come back... time for "the lid." panel is back. you said let's do the polls, let's do the midterms. florida and arizona. i have said these are the two most -- biggest, probably most

impactful states because they also will have presidential campaign resonance to them. florida, the blue wave might finally be showing up in florida. >> sure looks that way. impactful as well as critical to any democratic path to the senate majority. they're not going to win the majority if they lose florida. they're not going to win the majority, they cannot pick up that open seat in arizona, one of their best on the map. the democratic candidate is ahead by 3 points in your poll, bill nelson ahead by 3 points. striking the margin among women, sinema ahead by 13. >> there was a cross the board last week bunch of numbers that went literally a shift of about 2 point s across the board towad the democrats. >> i think the supreme court story is happening. we talked about poor mitch mcconnell's situation that he finds himself in.

this is happening for senate republicans and republicans in general, the worst possible story for the worst possible time for them, it hits their most difficult demographic they were already struggling with. >> the environment and candidates. candidates matter, specifically, andrew gillum, who is running ahead of bill nelson and is seen to be almost getting to liftoff. >> gillum has coattails, scott doesn't. >> i think that's right. there are some candidates who attacks on record don't matter. attacks on positions don't matter. if they are likeable, if they present their best face, they have that teflon quality, we see it all the time. i think he might possess that. in arizona, you have these negative ads, have been effective -- >> i think they've worked, right. >> she needs to run up likeability numbers, show that she is a likeable candidate.

>> martha mcsally had no choice, down double digits, it worked but they've got to make her more likeable. >> certainly a factor. kirsten sinema is running a very effective, good ocampaign. she's had an ideological shift but it's worked for her. >> an interesting question, people shift but the persona that she was -- her voting record even has been very centrist, moderate. she has made a switch. the question is what motivated it? does that matter to voters? >> both candidates have made a switch. martha mcsally was once a moderate, now she is not quite trumpier than trump, but she was trying to alone herself as much as she could with trump to get through the primaries. >> the trump factor has been fascinating. the candidates that -- dean

heller, why is he there? dean heller has a base problem and a swing vote problem. ted cruz has a base problem and a swing vote problem. trump, there's nobody to help you with the swing vote problem, so you go with trump? >> trump knows how to rub a base election, he has that gut connection with his followers. republicans have put themselves in a position where they're already in danger, if not already have lost the middle. so in order to prevent that blue wave from appearing, in order to prevent the bottom from falling out, you need your base to show up. >> there you go. >> heller's in a tough place right now. he has to stick to trump, they rallied together, he understands -- >> the most interesting race i think so far where kavanaugh may be having a weird impact is north dakota. >> one quote. >> no, he added a new one. about wondering should it even

matter? >> democrat operatives were foaming, salivating at the prospect of republican candidates saying silly things about it. >> it also tells me hidy heitkamp was dead in the water and this might rescue it. up ahead, a big scoop. two scoops.

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we got a bit of a theme here in case you missed it. politics doesn't have to be cold, bitter, cloudy. it can be cold and sweet.

ask ben and jerry. launching a come pain with moveon.org to create new flavors inspired by progressive candidates. they're asking people to come up with seven amazing ice cream flavors and flavor names that not only taste great but capture the essence what was each candidate stands for. maybe we can drum up more interest if the midterms we churn out flavors. who wouldn't want a scoop of peanut beto o'rourke? the people who would prefer ted velvet cake. it doesn't have to be about the candidates, how about a helping bowl full of filibutter pecan? maybe cherry-mandering garcia? or something more trendy, a dish of when they go low we go chai. two scoops of "sweet the press." peppermint? eh, i don't know. i want if it's sundae, get it?

our names are pun-tastic, some are truly horrible. i'll take majority whipped cream. let us know what you would like to have. any of those flavors? do you want ifitssundae? we'll be back tomorrow with more but "the beat with ari melber" starts right now. donald trump, brett kavanaugh, and the wider republican party in congress under pressure, with two days until this hearing with kavanaugh's sexual assault accuser dr. christine ford. the news is about how this hearing will run. all the republican members of the judiciary committee are men. they made an issue of that fact today by announcing that a woman will handle the questions on thursday. majority leader m