tv MTP Daily MSNBC October 3, 2018 2:00pm-3:00pm PDT
2:00 pm
bring trump and colin kaepernick together what say you? >> the trump who called colin kaepernick and s.o.b. and said he ought to be fired? colin kaepernick will get a job in the nfl before he sits down for a meeting with this president. >> you heard it here first. that does it for our hour. i'm nicolle wallace. "mtp daily" starts right now. hi, chuck. >> happy wednesday. happy hump day. >> you, too. if it's wednesday, is the gender gap becoming a gender canyon? good evening, i'm chuck todd here in washington. welcome to "mtp daily." any minute now, the fbi could send the senate the transskrichts of the interviews they've done in their background investigation into brett kavanaugh. and that means that leader mcconnell could be scheduling the kavanaugh vote at any minute. some senators have a very
2:01 pm
difficult decision ahead of them, and the president probably didn't make it easier for them when, just days after calling dr. ford a credible witness, the president said this. >> what he's going through, 36 years ago, this happened. i had one beer. right? i had one beer. well, do you think it was -- no, it was one beer. oh, good. how did you get home? i don't remember. how did you get there, i don't remember. where is the place? i don't remember. how many years ago was it? i don't know. i don't know. i don't know. i don't know. what neighborhood was it? i don't know. where's the house? i don't know. upstairs, downstairs, where was it? i don't know. but i had one beer. that's the only thing i remember. >> the white house today defended those come meant, saying the president was just stating facts about blasey ford's testimony. well, as you might expect, senate democrats are furious.
2:02 pm
>> i thought his comments were disgraceful and shows that he has no empathy for survivors of sexual violence. >> president trump, in within the space of a week, went from saying that dr. ford's testimony to the committee was compelling and credible, to openly mocking her at a political rally in mississippi. that's -- that's just not constructive. >> to mock her as the president did last night is certainly beneath the dignity of the white house. >> and you also might expect, senate republicans have been mostly and uncomfortably silent. today, we did hear from soon to be retiring bob corker. >> anything anybody says, any of us, that may say something that, you know, accentuates the polarization is just not a good thing and not helpful. >> we also heard from the three republicans at the epicenter of this confirmation fight, the three people who will ultimately decide kavanaugh's fate. and all three sure wish the
2:03 pm
president hadn't mocked dr. ford. >> the president's comments were just plain wrong. >> just not right. i wish he hadn't have done it. just say it's kind of appalling. >> i don't approve of the comments from last night. i thought that they were wrong and extraordinarily unfortunate. >> so, did the president just make it harder for flake and collins and murkowski to get to yes? we don't know. did he make any other republicans think twice? we don't know. what we do know that one of the biggest impacts of this confirmation fight will be in the gender wars and we do know that this is a president who yesterday called this a, quote, very scary time for young men. a president who earlier this year asked if there's no longer due process when men are accused of sexual misconduct. president who campaigned for roy moore, a senate candidate accused of such misconduct. so, president trump is questioning christine blasey ford's allegations because he
2:04 pm
may not know any other way to combat this. >> i've had a lot of false charges made against me. really false charges. i know friends that have had false charges. people want fame, they want money, they want whatever, so when i see it, i view it differently than somebody sitting at home watching television where they say, oh, judge kavanaugh this or that. it's happened to me many times. i've had many false charges. >> for what it's worth, we don't know how many were false or not. let me bring in tonight's panel. welcome all. leigh ann, i was talking to folks inside the senate world and there's 47 yes votes for kavanaugh right now, but there easily could only be 40 if things go south in a hurry. what is the mood inside the
2:05 pm
republican side of the senate aisle right now? >> the mood is uncertain. mitch mcconnell, who is trying to push this forward as quickly as possible. there's a lot of concerns that there could be more that comes out. the sooner this is done, the sooner that they can move on. but then, you have these key central republicans, the three of them, who are dictating this process. mcconnell cannot vote until he has the votes. and he does not yet have the votes yet. >> will he hold this vote if he doesn't know if he has the votes? >> he rarely holds votes when he loses. we don't see it -- >> we saw it once, infamous thumb's down. >> obamacare repeal, yes. he doesn't like to lose. we don't know if he's going to hold it. he's said before in the past he will hold it regardless, that will vote will happen and that's a game he's talking right now, if he actually does it, i don't
2:06 pm
know, he's just going to be working his republicans very hard to make sure he does have those votes. >> houugh, every day, this gets little harder. >> well, it does. i spoke with three republican senators on the record this morning, the whip, john cornyn, joni ernst and david purdue from georgia, which is a swing state. all three of them are solid for kavanaugh, if anything explosive comes out in the fbi report, it would be up for grabs. i spoke with a senior republican leader, not in the senate, they are 90% certain, according to this individual of confirmation, however, if they don't confirm kavanaugh, this individual believes the republicans will be wiped out in november. and i mean, senate and house, wiped out. >> interesting. >> so, senators murkowski and collins and flake have on their burden not only this, judge kavanaugh, but their chairmanship in the party.
2:07 pm
>> why? why do you -- why do you think that? because i've heard the argument that says, if it goes down, it's going to fire up republicans. >> not what their cross tabs are showing. that people believe that they will have been wimped out again. the big problem with the -- >> this is the obamacare repeal argument, which is -- >> yes. >> republicans are the ones that killed it, is -- >> okay. >> yeah. >> donna? >> well, you know, when i listen to the president, what i hear is a president who finally unleashed everything that he wanted to say last week, but had restrained himself. i mean, this is the -- this was the real president trump, and we all know that. and i think that what these senators, these three senators are looking for, i mean, they're not now just looking at the charges around what happens with kavanaugh and ford, but they're also looking at lying. you heard jeff flake, you know, say that that was a concern to him, and this morning, i think it was susan collins who said mitch mcconnell said he was
2:08 pm
going to hold a vote before, he said it once, he didn't. so, i think in their estimation, there's still room right here to get a full report and they expect a full one. >> and leigh ann, we get different reports from the status of this fbi investigation. i feel like they want us to believe it's ended more so that it's not yet over. >> yeah, so, we don't really know. senators left their lunch today saying, yes, the report could come out, be done tonight or tomorrow, but they didn't know. they all caveat that as saying, we haven't heard specifically yet. they want it to be done sooner, but we don't know where it's going to go. and also, the scope of this investigation, you know, our reporting shows that it's still quite limited. there's a lot of people that want to talk to the fbi, that others have said, are relevant to this investigation, that the fbi has not yet reached out to, and so, the scope of this investigation, throughout this
2:09 pm
process, is going to continue to be a key issue for democrats, especially, but it needs to satisfy the demands of those three key senators, republicans. >> so, the political fallout here is clearly on gender lines. and what was interesting last night was watching the president, i think, proactively, start to talk about that. here is more from the president last night about, sort of, who should be -- oh, it's when he talked about, mom, i did great in school, talked about mothers being worried about their sons, i'm told we do have it, here it is. >> mom, i did great in school, i've worked so hard, mom, i'm so pleased to tell you, i just got a fantastic job with ibm, i just got a fantastic job with general motors. i just got -- i'm so proud. mom, a terrible thing just happened. a person who i've never met said
2:10 pm
that i did things that were horrible, and they're firing me from my job, mop. i don't know what to do. mom, what do i do? what do i do, mom? what do i do, mom? it's a damn sad situation. >> this is a rorschach test, and i think it breaks on generational lines more than doctor it will break on party lines, i think -- i think people under 50 hear one thing and people over 50 hear another. hugh? >> well, i hear the entitled white guy argument. i'm the mom of an african-american male young man, and i've worried about him in different context over the time. i don't think that donald trump was talking about my son. and i think it's very problematic to allow the sort of privileged white guy who made mistakes to now claim victimhood in this argument. and i think that's what the president was doing. >> hugh, what did you hear?
2:11 pm
>> a talk show host hears from people across the country. i limited my calls on monday and into the first hour today to women for tooirs ca women, first time callers. 40 in total. ten in favor of kavanaugh being confirmed. i do believe, and i was told by the senior gop official, the demographic that is breaking most decidedly, overwhelming for republican are young males because they feel threatened. it's not -- they feel threatened by this, but whether or not it gets to young moms, that will be decisive. but i actually don't think the three senators are going to decide on that basis. they're going to decide if kavanaugh is qualified and whether or not they believe dr. ford. >> i think they're deciding on character, whatever that is, and character for everybody is a -- i think it's different. >> yeah. >> different test. let me put up some poll numbers. some gender gap support.
2:12 pm
among, as you can see here, on gender lines, among men, narrow support. among women, double digit opposition, donna. so, this is really breaking -- it's interesting, by the way, you go back 30 years, we don't have a lot of polling on thomas hill in the way we do now. it's just an interesti ining generational -- >> it is, but what you see there, though, is this culmination of this entire year and a half when it comes to up is port among women, which is, you know, been trickling downward over the last year and a half. and you see that in these polling numbers. and i think that for republicans, the danger for them is, this is -- this may be a loss of women for a generation. this is not just temporary. >> let me put up the congressional ballot by gender here in their numbers. republicans have a ten-point lead among men and democrats have a 20-point lead among
2:13 pm
women, hugh hewitt. >> well, the npr poll that came out this afternoon showed -- >> that's this one. >> intensity has gone through the roof for republicans, it was already through the roof for democrats. and lindsey graham quipped that democrats did what republicans couldn't do, bring the republicans together. i think he will retreat from it and it believe it is a clear-cut case of people like heidi heitkamp, a woman, taking it on the chin. she went from four points down to ten points down, and that's even as it began to break. i think joe manchin is in trouble, i think joe donnelly is done, clair mccaskill is cooked and it's all because of brett kavanaugh. >> what are you hearing on this? >> i'm hearing it's too early to tell what's going to happen in the senate races, but what i am hearing is that it's going to have a negative impact for republicans in house races. even though the house is not directly involved in this, it's the suburban house districts where there's a lot of suburban women voters who are going to
2:14 pm
decide this race, and that's where republicans are most concerned at this point, about the kavanaugh situation. >> you brought up lindsey graham, i'd be remiss if i didn't show the clip of lindsey graham today, because he's on -- he's in full maga mode here. take a look. >> we've come a long way since -- >> all right, all right. it's fine, it's fine. >> no, wait a minute. if you like it or not, i really don't care. here's the point. i have seen what happened to these women in 1998, that came forward. i don't like what the president said last night. i'm the first person to say, i want to hear from dr. ford. i thought she was handled respectfully. i thought kavanaugh was treated like crap. well, boo yourself. >> i'll tell you, he's really sort of wrapped himself into this story. and he's allowing -- nothing will define him, no one thing
2:15 pm
defines lindsey graham, but he's taking a lead on this, in a surprising way. >> he has, and i don't know what happened to the lindsey graham that i knew, because he hasn't been showing up lately, and, you know, maybe all these years, it was kind of a john mccain restraining order on lindsey graham and it's been unleashed and it's really, you know, it's surprising. it's not going to allow him to play that kind of independent role that he has played. >> it is possible the courts are this just nuclear holocaust of anger between both sides? >> yeah. >> where schumer and lindsey can agree on 70% of things in the senate, but on judicial nominations, it is, i'm pressing my nuclear button, no, i'm pressing mine? >> well, i think there's a couple things going on here. someone once told me, which has really stuck with me, that he can read the political winds better than anymore anyone. he does have a re-election coming up in a couple of years. >> 2020, he's up. >> and also, in addition to that, he also knows how to try to get what he wants from the
2:16 pm
president. and this might be a great opportunity for him to stick with the president to get the maneuvers that he wants on other things. >> i'm going to pause it there. what i love is that the president does recognize it, but he is always putting a caveat on his friendship with lindsey graham. he and i are great friends, in the last six months. he said it again. almost like, lindsey, i don't forget. i'll just sort of forgive for awhile. all right. stick around. up next, can the country recover from tribalism that is trumping all of us? usake-revers. ongoing pain and stiffness are signs of joint erosion. humira can help stop the clock. prescribed for 15 years, humira targets and blocks a source of inflammation that contributes to joint pain and irreversible damage. humira can lower your ability to fight infections. serious and sometimes fatal infections
2:17 pm
including tuberculosis, and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. help stop the clock on further irreversible joint damage. talk to your rheumatologist. right here. right now. humira.
2:19 pm
talk to your doctor and say yesss! to linzess. yesss! linzess treats adults with ibs with constipation or chronic constipation. linzess can help relieve your belly pain, and lets you have more frequent and complete bowel movements. see if you're eligible to get 90 days for as little as 30 dollars. do not give linzess to children less than 6 and it should not be given to children 6 to less than 18, it may harm them. do not take linzess if you have a bowel blockage. get immediate help if you develop unusual or severe stomach pain, especially with bloody or black stools. the most common side effect is diarrhea, sometimes severe. if it's severe, stop taking linzess and call your doctor right away. other side effects include gas, stomach-area pain, and swelling. so say yesss! to help for recurring constipation. yesss! to help for belly pain. talk to your doctor and say yesss! linzess.
2:20 pm
welcome back. the visit lee yol in the fight over brett kavanaugh's supreme court nomination isn't just about the allegations against him. it's about a lot of things, and in many ways, it's about the tribalism in our politics of today, and with everyone in their corners, how far apart we are from one another is stark. dr. christine blasey ford's defenders can't understand why republicans would stand behind somebody accused of sexual assault. and kavanaugh's supporters can't understand how something that happened so long ago would destroy someone's career. the human capacity to tolerate and even embrace small lies, if they are in service of someone's larger truth. if you insist this phenomenon does not apply to you, the chances are you lying at least to yourself. roger pilon writes the vote on
2:21 pm
brett kavanaugh won't solve america's deeper supreme court problems. so, this is what i'm trying to get at. i'll joined now by john harris and roger pilon. and again, with you, john, talking about the specific versus the larger culture war that you want to go on, you really go back between kavanaugh and ken starr and the clinton and the sort of -- and the fact that it's a mirror image argument that the clinton defenders of '98 are making to kavanaugh defenders of '18. >> well, the common theme is, in both cases, you had people saying, i can't possibly understand how the other side could tolerate this, how they could think this. and usually, when you are in one of those situations where you can't possibly understand why people would think the exact opposite of you, it says, we're not really in a political fight, we're in a cultural fight, in which basic questions of identity are at stake. the point that i was making in that piece is, bill clinton spent a year lying in pretty
2:22 pm
obvious ways, over what happened with monica lewinsky. >> maybe this will get it off the page, maybe this will -- what do you think the motivation was? >> well, in his case, he thought if he just came forward, yes, i did have a relationship, at the very beginning of that scandal, the public would not have been able to tolerate it and the whole thing might have burned down. but if we can drag it out -- >> buy time. >> slowly, people were repaired to make a judgment about this. and the literal truth of what he said, a lot of it being false, for his side, certainly never for brett kavanaugh on the other side, but for his side, the larger truth was more important. in that view, the larger truth was, this is a partisan investigation and sexual indiscretions and even lies about sexual indiscretions are not worthy of evicting a president. that was the large truth and all the small lies didn't really make that much difference. >> roger, i was born in 1972. i lived my whole life in the
2:23 pm
culture war of american politics. i was born the year of watergate. bork 15 years later, clinton ten years later, kavanaugh and trump, you know, we are just -- has this just been one long -- it seems to be, that's the argument, we're in one long war here. >> chuck, i was born 30 years earlier, long before the culture war and it was great. the -- let me say that the carings that we've had, especially the first part of the hearings, where we actually talked about substance, rather than sex, what were brought out how deeply divided, once again, how deeply divided we are as a nation not simply about the role of government, but about the constitution itself, the reading of the constitution. and this divide goes way back. it goes back to the progressive era, when there was a fundamental -- >> you're talking my back to teddy roosevelt. >> oh, i'm taking you back to
2:24 pm
wo woodrow wilson, who saw the constitution as a straight jacket. he resisted it. he didn't like it, because it prevented him from doing the kinds of things he wanted to do. the progressives were social engineers. they wanted to change the world, especially on the political and economic and social area, through legislation. but of course, the constitution that we had lived under, now going up to 150 years, was a constitution for limited government and maximizing individual liberty. things came to a head during the new deal when roosevelt's programs, one after another, were found unconstitutional. what happened then? 1937, roosevelt threatened to pack the court with six new members, the infamous court-packing scheme. there was outrage in the country. nevertheless, the court got the message and they began rewriting the constitution, without ben ne fid of amendment and opening the
2:25 pm
flo floodgates to the modern welfare state, it reduced economic liberty to a second class status and opened the door for the congress to delegate ever more of its powers to the executive branch, the mod heern executive state. >> the ben sasse statement. we wouldn't be fighting this hard over a supreme court justice if we would compromise. >> if brett kavanaugh hadn't worked for ken star, would he be in an easier situation? part of this says, part of our culture wars is also in washington, you can't let go of a grudge. >> i think there's some of that. and we saw it the first time in his nomination, 12 years ago for the appellate court judge. people remember his history. i don't think it's necessarily unfair to bring that up, but i do think god does have a little bit of a sense of humor.
2:26 pm
>> when you look at it, okay, criminalize sex and here we go. >> and i think what -- bill clinton was basically saying to ken starr and all the people who were pursuing him back then, like, come on, give me a break, you really want to pursue this? and that's exactly -- and the answer back then was, yes, we do, because we think there's something important involved, and now kavanaugh is the one saying, come on, you're going to look at my history, 36 years ago. is that relevant? yes, we think it is. and i think -- the universe is more fair than unfair. not every instance is fair. but long-term, there's a lot of fairness, and kavanaugh's experiencing that. >> right. you know, roger, the -- i guess the question is, this sort of cold, i mean, on one hand, yes, the supreme court has been this vehicle to fight, because we've decided, all right, it's going to decide whether legislation stays or goes, i mean, that's -- that's what we're going to do. but the larger issue of this culture war, we're at the point
2:27 pm
where one side, i don't think would shed a tear if something happened to the other side. how do we bridge that division? >> i don't know that we can, frankly. >> should we? >> where is -- where is the compromise when one side, call it the bernie sanders side of the democratic party, wants -- >> the far left side. that's not a majority side. >> ever more government programs, and the other side, the tea party part of the base of the republican party, remember, they marched in washington with signs that said, we want less. that's a long time since we've seen that. but the point is, when we had this culture war that you spoke of coming out of the supreme court finding itself against in the '50s, in the civil rights movement, rightly so, in criminal legislation and so forth, then it started finding rights that were nowhere to be found.
2:28 pm
now, that created the conservative backlash and the conservative backlash left us with two schools. conservatives calling for judicial restraint, liberates calling for judicial activism. and that led to ronald reagan and eventually things came to a head with the nomination of robert bork, and that's the start of the modern era of battle for the court. >> john harris, you have chronicled the scar tissue of american politics for a long time. how's the kavanaugh -- what is this kavanaugh scar going to look like in a decade? >> you know, i think the cult e cultural war lasted, as you say, has been going a good four, five decades now and i think it's going to continue a good long while. chuck, when you were born in 1972, people were literally setting off bombs in campuses, people were rioting in the streets. really -- and in the '30s, they were cracking heads over union battles and in the 1850s, people
2:29 pm
getting caned on the senate floor. this is part of -- i think american story, right in there's violent past. >> you're trying to sell john meachum's book quite well. >> sure, but the only thing that i think is different in this climate is that we've commercialized that kind of dissent. you can sell books off it, you can get ratings off it. you can raise money off it. the commercialization of extremism is new. >> that is a great thing to stop this segment on. that's a great point for people to think about it. that bothers me a lot. people that have commercialized their outrage. anyway. roger, john, thank you both. up ahead, which senate seats are most likely to flip come november? we're going to show you our brand new nbc news flipability rankings. rankings thanks to the dedicated technicians at the american red cross... who worked with vmware... to develop technologies to help redirect the flow of blood
2:30 pm
2:32 pm
2:33 pm
welcome back. tonight, i'm obsessed with october. at our staff meeting, there was a near unanimous agreement, october is the best month. why october? let me count the ways. great weather. not too hot, not too cold, air is crisp, shadows are long. go outside and enjoy. how about fall colors? october is when those of us who like to live where there are seasons are reminded why we like to live where there are seasons. so, take a trip to new england or the shen doe what valley, you'll get it. ah, october baseball. is there anything better?
2:34 pm
every pitch counts. every fan is on edge. it's when heroes are born and when people like me lose sleep, thank you very much, cubs/rockies. june is nice, but they didn't call reggie jackson mr. june. they called him mr. october, and mr. cheater, in the seven world series. college football. it's the heart of the season. when we separate the contenders from the pretenders. october makes saturdays great again. basketball and hockey, the nba and nhl seasons begin, yes, this month. gamblers get erupt with joy. the nfl is in midseason form. remember, you are what your record says you are. all four sports are going. get the dvr going. bet you didn't know october is also national country ham month. come on now. it's national cookie month, for those keeping kosher. and every other year, october is when the election season goes into overdrive. so, for me, it's every other october that is the greatest month of all time. does it get any better? and when it's all over, by the way, just when october is about
2:35 pm
to turn into november, when it starts getting cold and wet and yucky, just then, on the last day of october -- we wear silly costumes and get to eat lots of candy. so, happy october, everybody. it's only here for a month. enjoy it while you can. ere the . if you're on park street in reno, nevada, the high winds of the washoe zephyr could damage your siding. and that's very different than living on park ave in sheboygan, wisconsin, where ice dams could cause water damage. but no matter what park you live on, one of 10,000 local allstate agents knows yours. now that you know the truth, are you in good hands? billions of problems. morning breath? garlic breath? stinky breath? there's a therabreath for you. therabreath fresh breath oral rinse instantly fights all types of bad breath and works for 24 hours. so you can... breathe easy. there's therabreath at walmart.
2:36 pm
i feel happiest when i'm out enjoying my favorite things, like spending time in my garden. that's why i need a humana medicare advantage plan. many humana medicare advantage plans cover everything - from emergency care and hospitals stays, to doctor office visits, and prescription drug coverage. in fact, last year, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $6900 on average on their prescription costs. humana has a large network of doctors and hospitals. plans that include vision and dental coverage. and most plans include silver sneakers fitness and a rewards program. all for a zero dollar monthly plan premium in most areas. now i can be happy and healthy and keep enjoying all of my favorite things. your health and happiness is important to us. call or go online now to get your free decision guide and see how a humana medicare advantage plan can help keep you enjoying your favorite things. 300 miles an hour,
2:37 pm
that's where i feel normal. having an annuity tells me my retirement is protected. learn more at retire your risk dot org. ♪ south l.a. is very medically underserved. when the old hospital closed people in the community lived with untreated health problems for years. so, with the county's help we built a new hospital from the ground up and having citi as an early investor worked as a signal to others to invest. with citi's help we built a wonderful maternity ward and we were able to purchase an mri machine. we've made it possible for the people who live here to lead healthier lives and that's invaluable.
2:38 pm
♪ welcome back. get them while they're hot. we have brand new rankings of the top ten senate races that we see are most likely to flip control this november. so, right now, the races that we're watching essentially fall into three categories. first, i would say the seats most likely to flip, right now, our top three, north dakota, nevada, arizona. we believe the outparty in all of those races have a slight advantage. heidi heitkamp, we see that seat as the most vulnerable to the other party winning her re-election path. democratic pickup opportunities in nevada and arizona round out this category. next up, the true tossups where it's just a knife's edge,
2:39 pm
democrat claire mccaskill in missouri, bob corker's open seat in tennessee. both races feel like coin flips and frankly, the next category, it's a slight lean, but man, slight lean. indiana, donnelly, slightly ahead. florida, nelson slightly ahead. montana, new jersey, texas. all five races, we give a slight av av advantage to the incumbent. all of the seats are democrats, except texas. new on the list, bob menendez in new jersey. a poll out today had him up 11. another poll had him up two. he's in the five to six sweet spot there. not great, probably winnable for him, but not great. so, joining me now is the one of the nation's fore most experts of handicapping races, jennifer duffy. >> hey, chuck, how are you? >> so, i guess, the big question is, are we in a holding pattern on the battle for senate? i would say this two weeks ago felt like there was a decided
2:40 pm
shift towards the democrats and it was like, boy, they have a real shot at flipping. kavanaugh has everybody going -- and not sure. >> right. first of all, i didn't see that, that movement two or three weeks ago as clearly as some did. i actually think now we're in a -- you can call it a holding pattern or turbulence. >> holding pattern is more comfortable. turbulence makes you vomit. >> well, there are some days. when i look at these, and i don't have -- i mean, the one thing i have to say about your ratings is, can we acknowledge the difference between number one and five can be measured in decimal points? >> 100%. actually, one of the things we wanted to do was have no number two. we do believe there's a much bigger gap between north dakota and, say, everything else. there is a decided advantage probably for kevin kramer. all the other senate races are much more -- >> arizona, missouri, tight, tight, tight. whether you have it at three or four.
2:41 pm
>> right. >> it's there. i mean, i think that -- the interesting thing about kavanaugh in missouri is, there was no good vote for claire mccaskill here. she was going to alienate part of the vote she needed, no matter what she did. you know, i actually think arizona, at the end of the day, is going to be the closest senate race in the country. >> we will hold you to that -- no, we won't. >> you can hold me to that. >> hugh hewitt earlier said, you know, there's anecdotal -- we've seen some polling this week that while it hasn't seen a major shift in numbers, you are see g seeing, as you hear from republican pollsters going, oh, my god, finally republicans seem to be engaged. why does that matter? >> well, first of all -- >> or does it? >> it absolutely matters. pew came out with a study two weeks ago that showed democrats as engaged as they've been almost historically, like twice as engaged as they were in 2010, 2014. republicans not so much. so, yeah, you need to close that
2:42 pm
intensity gap. i think that it started to close pre-kavanaugh and then it has sort of slammed shut. i had a pollster say to me this week, i want to test this again when the noise is gone. i called him an optimist. >> when is the noise gone? >> right. with the noise being gone. he said, oh, just be replaced with a different noise. but it has to, you know, can republicans maintain this level of interest for five more weeks? we're going to see what happens to kavanaugh. >> i was just going to say, if the kavanaugh story is in the rear view mirror in two weeks, what does that -- how does that change your calculus about the senate? >> well, i think i go back to where i was about ten days ago, which is where i'm looking at this more race by race. sure, we look at the elections as a whole, and political environments driving it, until you get to the senate, and then you feel like you're looking at an election in a different country. so, we're looking at these more race by race than sort of the
2:43 pm
prevailing winds out there. >> it's interesting when you do that. when i look at it race by race and i'm with you, sitting there, sometimes i give the republicans a net gain of one or two, sometimes i have it dead even, but when you look at the totality, you're like, boy, i've been down this road before, '06 in particular, 2000, while it didn't change, it got democrats to 50/50, when ever close race also went to the same side. that happens more often than not, right? >> well, that's true. in the last ten elections, one party has won a majority of the tossup races. no party has won less than 67%. 2004, 2006, 2014, one party won 89% of those races. so the question is, this has been such a crazy cycle, is this the exception to the rule? and what does it mean if it is? it really means, frankly, that candidates and campaigns matt mattered.
2:44 pm
>> we should remind people that in the wave year of 2010, republican s only got the hous. they came up short in the senate, that was considered a split decision for about an hour when everybody realized oh, my god, look what happened to the house. >> exactly. i mean, you know, there are -- there are a couple similarities, i think republicans had some recruiting challenges. >> right. >> that cycle. i can point to a couple of races where i think they have recruiting challenges here. i'm not sure matt rosendale is, you know, the strongest candidate they could have gotten. there are some races i would have thought would be on this board that aren't. i mean, we haven't talked about the one race missing in your top ten that's extraordinary, west virginia. >> yeah. >> i mean, a state that trump carried by 42 points who, six months ago, i would have told you that joe manchin was the most vulnerable incumbent, he's not even on the list anymore. >> exactly. i love to play this game with you. would you rather be ted cruz or bob then thmenendez.
2:45 pm
>> menendez. >> mccaskill or blackburn? >> that one's harder. ah -- ah. >> that tells you everything right there. and if you have to have -- i only can give you the results of one race on election night, what state, u.s. senate race would you want that would help you figure out who got control? >> arizona. >> jennifer duffy, the best in the business. thank you. >> thank you very much. >> happy october. >> yes. >> all right. up ahead, michael bloomberg, the battle of the billionaires. it? noooo... nooooo... yeeeesss... quick, the quicker picker upper! bounty picks up messes quicker and is 2x more absorbent than the leading ordinary brand. hey look, i got it. bounty, the quicker picker upper.
2:46 pm
you may be learning about, medicare and supplemental insurance. medicare is great, but it doesn't cover everything ...only about 80% of your part b medicare costs. a medicare supplement insurance plan may help cover some of the rest. learn how an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company might be the right choice for you. a free decision guide is a great place to start. call today to request yours. so what makes an aarp medicare supplement plan unique? these are the only medicare supplement plans endorsed by aarp because they meet aarp's high standards of quality and service. you're also getting the great features that any medicare supplement plan provides. you may choose any doctor that accepts medicare patients. you can even visit a specialist. with this type of plan there are no networks or referrals needed. also, a medicare supplement plan... ...goes with you when you travel anywhere in the u.s. call today for a free guide.
2:47 pm
welcome back. today in meet the midterms, senate democrats are getting a big billionaire boost. michael bloomberg will give $20 million to the main democratic senate super pac this week. that is on top of the $80 million he had already pledged to democratic candidates overall this cycle. something he's surely hoping democrats remember ahead of a potential 2020 presidential bid. michael bloomberg trying to increase his democratic party. $100 million makes him one of the biggest campaign donors in either party right now. campaign records as of the latest filing deadline show that casino mag gnat sheldon adelson has donated nearly $56 million to republican and republican committees, while another democrat who is angling for a presidential run, tom steyer, has donated $42 million. but he's pledged $120 million
2:48 pm
for turning out voters who support impeaching president trump. it is possible another billionaire could get even more money in these final weeks leading up to election day and we won't even find that out, probably for seven months after the election. but right now, it's bloomberg that has pulled into the billionaire donor lead. we'll be right back. elen cleare. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks stayed clearer through 48 weeks. tremfya® works better than humira® at providing clearer skin, and more patients were symptom free with tremfya®. tremfya® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections. before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. tell your doctor if you have an infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. before starting tremfya® tell your doctor if you plan to or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options.
2:49 pm
the nation's largest senior-living referral service. for the past five years, i've spoken with hundreds of families and visited senior-care communities around the country. and i've got to tell you, today's senior-living communities are better than ever. these days, there are amazing amenities, like movie theaters, exercise rooms and swimming pools, public cafes, bars, and bistros, even pet-care services. and nobody understands your options like the advisers at a place for mom. these are local, expert advisers that will partner with you to find the perfect place and determine the right level of care, whether that's just a helping hand or full-time memory care. best of all, it's a free service. there is never any cost to you. senior living has never been better, and there's never been an easier way to get great advice. call today. a place for mom -- you know your family, we know senior living. together we'll make the right choice.
2:50 pm
♪ c♪ crawl inside, wait by the light of the moon. ♪ applebee's to go. add a fountain drink to your next order for just 99 cents. now that's eatin' good in the neighborhood. it's time for women to go to washington and fix our broken government and that includes a woman at the top. here's what i promise. after november 6th, i will take a hard look at running for president. >> welcome back. time now for the lid. panelist back. the brett kavanaugh debate has
2:51 pm
like blotted out the sun in politics. elizabeth warren announced her exploratory committee over the weekend and it barely got a blip. >> it was surprising. it's like we haven't gotten the election yet. >> she's on the ballot. >> she is. >> i'm impressed that she told voters in advance she wouldn't finish her fix years term. >> she made the other commitment in her first term and now she's saying straight up, this is what i'm doing. >> the presidential race will begin the day after the midterms. t she seems to be comfortable, i'm going to be treated like the front-runner so i'm going to ctk like. >> it's going to be a woman driven cycle.
2:52 pm
>> if the senate goes south -- she loses her gavel if they lose the senate. murkowski, people need to drill down and look at the consequences of voting against kavanaugh. she's going to be the most powerful woman in the industry. >> i want to go back to this presidential talk. president trump is always liking talking about his 2020 opponents. he's already done it. >> then you have cory booker who destroyed newark. they have moved so far left that pocahontas is considered a conservative. elizabeth warren. she said she is considering a run for the presidency. please, please run. how about that group. biden. biden.
2:53 pm
we call him 1% biden. until obama took him off the trash heap. he's another beauty. they got some real beauties going. >> this is going to be the most bizarre presidential primary to ever cover. while he used to just rail against politicians on his twitter feed or video chats or occasional phone in interviews on squawk box, he's the president of the united states. he's going to cat call. >> it's like the republican 2016 primary in a general election but i also say he could have a primary too. >> they probably embrace it. >> that's true. every campaign rally he's gearing up for 2020. we could have a field of 20 democrats to start. he'll have to have some long rallies to attack them all.
2:54 pm
>> he's going to have to come up with more nicknames. >> we talk about the year of woman. you have drop down from the year of the woman and you have amy klobuchar who made a name for herself for these hearings and kamala harris. there's going to be a lot of space for democrats but it's going to be a complicated environment. we have to start weeding them out. >> the hardest thing to do for the democratic candidates is it's going to be when they take the trump bait and when they ignore trump. >> i still think she's the super star in the talent that's out there. i do a lot of talking to left groups and they go wild for her. i believe she will recreate the obama coalition.
2:55 pm
donald trump is like a giant. might be cartoon giant but a giant. every one looks small next to him. kamala is about the only one who can generate that kind of heat. >> talk to the republican who is side amy klobuchar is the woman nominee that donald trump should fear most. thank you all. up ahead, be ware of the other green monster. ware of the other green monster. i wanna keep doing what i love,
2:57 pm
2:58 pm
i'm ready to crush ap english. i'm ready to do what no one on my block has done before. forget that. what no one in the world has done before. all i need access, tools, connections. high-speed connections. is the world ready for me? through internet essentials, comcast has connected more than six-million low-income people to low-cost, high-speed internet at home. i'm trying to do some homework here. so they're ready for anything.
2:59 pm
the u.n. general assembly wrapped up this week. it may be time to do some remodelling. i'm talking about the sea of blands green marshal tile. the president tweeted once about this issue. it bothers me too, mr. president. general assembly. more like generic assembly. it doesn't have to be so blah. that begs the question. the not marble time, then what? we knew exactly where to go for inspiration. pinterest. do you know what's hot right now in shiplap. wouldn't that give the uchl .n. kind of weathered, homespun feel a 72-year-old geo political organization. how about subway tile. it's still wildly popular. maybe the u.n. should give that a try.
3:00 pm
while we're at it throw in one of those rustic wooden signs. people love those things. or you know what, maybe all we need is a pointing. the president's person taste, this wall project could get expensive pretty quickly. we wonder if the u.n. would pay for it or if they would make the united states pay for it. that's all for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow. the beat with ari melber starts now. good evening. a classmate of brett kavanaugh is retracting his support. we'll take a deeper look into what is now being exposed as decades of fraud and conning. a lawmaker who wants to get trump's tax returns joins me as well. e beg we begin with the kavanaugh investigation as the kavanaugh probe hits the home stretch. senator corker saying they are expecting the fbi to send the transcripts of the
189 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
MSNBC West Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on