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and the countdown to the midterms, exactly one month to go. as mentioned, today is october 6th. on november 6th, voters across the nation will go to the polls. early voting is already under way in some states, actually six in all. seven more states will get their first opportunity to vote early including california and ohio. if you want to stop the radical democrats from running

congress, then you need to vote republican. you have to get out there on november 6th and vote republican. >> president trump encouraging supporters to make his wed wave a reality, but still prospects for that do not look very good. democrats lead by roughly seven points in the latest real term politics. 538 projektding the democrats with a three in four chance of winning the house and picking up 33 seats. a question for many is will what's happening on capitol hill today affect that projection? judge kavanaugh's confirmation expected to happen within hours. kelly o'donnell is reflecting on that from the white house. kelly, this is the day. the question is with the reporting over the last 24 hours over the white house was euphoric -- that was the word being used -- what are we hearing so far? any official reaction?

>> this is the final day, but doesn't it feel like it's going to go on for a while? what we have seen here is for president trump and senate republicans, if it goes as expected, this will be a major and lasting victory after what has been a bruising and bitter battle that has resonated around the country, bringing protesters into the capitol and many people wondering about this process. you're right. there were the sound of cheers outside west wing offices when they learned that they had by the slimmest of margins enough votes to put kavanaugh on the court. the suspense is over, but the struggle is not. through the night, senators, mostly democrats, debated the future of the supreme court. >> he's not telling the truth about what he did. >> and the fault lines over how sexual misconduct claims are heard. >> i believe her. i believe dr. ford. i still believe her.

>> reporter: the lone republican who will vote no, alaska's lisa more cowky skad judge brett kavanaugh's testimony at the hearing was too part sap for a supreme court justice. >> i could not conclude that he is the right person for the court at this time. >> the only democrat to back kavanaugh is west virginia's joe manchin who's in a top race for re-election, shouted down by protesters who believe dr. christine blasey ford's sexual misconduct allegation against judge kavanaugh. >> something happened to dr. ford. i don't believe the facts show that it was brett kavanaugh. >> reporter: late friday attorneys for dr. ford released a sworn statement from a friend who should have been interviewed by the fbi. despite today's outcome, they say ford made a difference. >> victims of sexual abuse and

violence say their voice didn't matter, that's not true. it's been heard in a very thunderous way. >> reporter: in a dramatic turn on friday on the senate floor, republican senator susan collins said she listened to victims' voices. >> the me too movement is real. >> reporter: but will vote for kavanaugh because there was not evidence to deny his presumption of innocence. >> it's when passions are most inflamed that fairness is most in jeopardy. >> friday night at princeton, supreme court justices sonia sotomayor and elena kagan spoke about the need for trust in the high court. >> people thinking of the court as not applicationicly divided in the same way, as not an extension of politics, but instead somehow above the fray. >> and if bread kavanaugh becomes a justice, the next associate justice of the supreme court will have familiarity with

some of those already on the court. elena kagan, for example, had hired him for a job in the past. that will be a transition that will be watched if the vote goes as planned. so far in the white house it's been a restrained response because it isn't over until it's over. there have been tweets from the president and vice president thanking those who support kavanaugh. in to e pika, kansas, we would expect he would be wanting to talk about his victory in the supreme court, one that has been difficult for everyone involved. richard? >> all right. nbc white house correspondent kelly o'donnell. thank you, kelly. will roe versus wade survive? why some believe kavanaugh fooled senators on the landmark case to lock in his confirmation. o lock in his confirmation if you have psoriasis, ...

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wonder -- does justice kavanaugh see the supreme court as the ultimate venue for providing justice, or is you're listening to it. a proverbial all-nighter. they're determining judge brett kavanaugh's bid. hundreds protesting the nomination were arrested near the capitol as well over the last couple of days. one of the issues, roe v. wade. >> noting that roe v. wade was decided 45 years ago and reaffirmed 19 years later in planned parenthood versus casey,

i asked judge cavanaugh whether the passage of time is relevant to following precedent. he said decisions are part of our framework with the passage of time and honoring it is essential to maintaining public confidence. >> this idea that he's going the respect stare decisis, that he's going to respect the president -- precedent of the court is ridiculous. he was inspired by others to make sure he would be that deciding vote to overturn roe v. wade. that's just what's going to happen. joining us now, elise jordan and nbcsn political analyst.

we're waiting for 5:00, if that's when the debate ends. anything that you're hear, anything that you think might change what is the foregone conclusion that brett kavanaugh will now join the highest court? >> at this point republican sources that i'm talking to are confident that this is the count, this is the vote, that judge brett kavanaugh will become justice brett kavanaugh and they don't foresee any disruptions to the plan. however, it's the trump era. i won't say never, but it seems like it is going to happen. >> do you believe that there is this possibility of bait and switch as critics are saying regarding roe versus wade here in that you heard what susan collins was saying, she felt comfortable. critics are saying, no, he's saying one thing but will do something else. >> i don't understand necessarily where critics are getting that analysis from that

he says one thing and then does another because from his legal history of, you know, 12 years sitting as a judge in the court of appeals, he has been known to take stances that differ from, say, the bush administration where he had served when it came to enemy combat antants. >> you know, as we've been watching this and republicans have supported him and we're seeing it right down the line except for one expects the vote to go the other way with lisa murkowski, was this because of brett kavanaugh himself and the history you just describe or more because they wanted to have the seat, right? a conservative seat? >> this was a uniquely tr trump confirmation battle. his history with women, all the allegations of assault that have

been lodged against the president himself, the infamous hollywood comments does a disservice of understanding why this became such a contentious battle. so you really can't separate what this battle became, a battle about women, a proxy fight, because donald trump is president. it just brought out much more vitriol and became much more of a visceral battle. >> a lot of everything is what you're saying in terms of what we're seeing. i want to look at what this all might mean when we look at the energizing of the left and the right. an npr marist poll show there's a 12%, i think, increase in enthusiasm compared to july. the president also tweeted about it. when we look at that, if kavanaugh is confirmed, what is the outcome. will this enthusiasm fizzle? will it increase over time? democrats are revving up the

machine. the question is who gets more energized? >> well, it's exactly a month until the midterm elections. and as we know in the political era, a month is a very long time. remember the anonymous "new york times" op-ed author in that debate? i mean that feel like it was years ago. there are many days to go through, i'm sure many new cris crisises. i don't know if they can count on the enthusiasm holding. the anger was over. the perception of how brett kavanaugh had been mistreated but they won. whereas the democrat voters didn't get what they wanted at all and so that anger will continue to propel them to the ballot. i think it's likely that democratic enthusiasm is going to outweigh republican enthusiasm generated by this confirmation process. >> as we break down that enthusiasm, the electorate

you're alluding to, we have to look at the women. the women also in the poll here, there was a 14-point uptick in enthusiasm characterized by anger over kavanaugh and how he was treated overall. do you think that will translate also moving forward or will be forgotten? >> well, i think that we really have to differentiate the house and what's happening with those close races and suburban women who were leaving the republican party and i'm questioning if we're seeing a fundamental political realignment where they're not going to come back, educated women. so those house races are very likely to take the house and that blue wave is going to happen. the senate was on a glide packet where they never take over. the race, for example, was looking good with phil bredesen. you see where bredesen has

dropped in the polls and hiss republican opponent marsha blackburn has risen because of the way it's playing in red states, that it's so different from these suburban normally blue districts. >> i was in tennessee three weeks ago and when you saw who's more likeable and who's going to win, those numbers aren't altogether coming together in the same space. the question might be because you've mentioned blackburn, she's embraced president trump. she's heading to topeka, kansas, and as he came out during the confirmation process, he really did lean on kavanaugh. is he the reason why kavanaugh is making it through and it shows his support has a lot of legs on the campaign trail still. >> i believe it was wednesday night president trump was in south haven, mississippi, about an hour from where i grew up and was born and raised in mississippi. he changed his strategy. he had been, for donald trump,

relatively restrain and attacked christine blasey ford by name, attacked the evidence, attacked her claims that she had been sexually assaulted by judge kavanaugh. and so that was a turning point in that the white house had been very cautious about not making this about her, not attacking dr. ford. and then dr. ford upended that strategy. while it was not necessarily the advice they wanted, it perhaps reflected the anger that some trump supporters felt over what they feel was a very dirty process. >> okay. it's always great to have you here. elise jordan in the house for us this morning as we look at what is expected to be the confirmation of brett kavanaugh in just hours. thanks so much, elise. thanks for being here. what doomed the case with judge kavanaugh. was stormy daniels' daniels countries that we traveled-

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different, better world. here's to the people who do what it takes to build it... to keep it running. the people who understand no matter what the question, the obstacle or the challenge, there's only one answer... let's do the work. (engine starts, hums) some of the allegations levied against judge kavanaugh illustrate why the presumption of innocence is so important. i am thinking in particular not

at the allegations raised by professor ford, but of the allegation that when he was a teenager judge kavanaugh drugged multiple girls and used their weakened state to facilitate gang rape. >> senator susan collins there, not naming julie swetnick in criticism of her allegation against judge kavanaugh, going on to say those allegations seemed outrageous. well, michael avenatti, who represents swetnick fired back in a series of tweets. this is one of them in which he went so far as saying that senator collins is channeling president trump before calling her disingenuous and shameful. julie manchester from the hill. the "washington post" saying analysis whether kavanaucarv avd doom the case against judge

kavanaugh? >> his claim to fame was the stormy daniels case and his criticism of michael cohen actually helped democrats in their claims against donald trump and unearthed a lot of the, that story. however, michael avenatti ever since has become more of like a major media figure that a lot of democrats would rather just stay away from. right now we saw that after all of that coverage of the stormy daniels case as well as the michael cohen saga, avenatti is constantly on cable news and seems to a lot of observers pining for media attention. i think republicans really were able to easily, i guess, look at his publicizing the julie swetnick allegations as a political ploy on this part, because he's a attorney. so much of his commentating in all of this has been very politically motivated. i think republicans were easily able to seize upon that.

i think his involvement in this could have swayed more moderate republicans like susan collins to question julie swetnick's allegations. >> moving forward, democrats on the other side are looking at what might happen this afternoon and a democratic congressman from new york floating the idea of impeaching kavanaugh because he would take on the house judiciary committee chairmanship in that situation if democrat was to lead the house. how would that work out? and might that hurt them in advance of the vote in the midterms? >> yeah. it could potentially hurt them in advance with trying to get independent voters, because i don't know if independent voters, that the swing voters that they really want to target ahead of the midterms necessarily rate the supreme court as a top priority. they could view this as overly politicized, however, it's going to help turn out the democratic base and keep that base fired up. as i said before, it could also fire up the republican base. we're a month out from the

midterms. this is happening a month before that, however, i think a lot of republicans could, you know, turn their attention to something else and not be as fired up about this ahead of the midterms. it could worry wok in democrats' favor and the republicans' favor as well. >> see what happens in the vote. it is, again, expected we will see brett kavanaugh confirmed but shall see what happens, and julia manchester has been here to fill in the details from the hill. thank you so much. >> thank you. does it for me. i'm richard lui. my colleague alex witt will pick up the sdfrdiscussion of the voo confirm judge kavanaugh. that's next. h. that's next. yeah. that's it? everybody two seconds! "dear sebastian, after careful consideration of your application, it is with great pleasure that we offer our congratulations on your acceptance..." through the tuition assistance program, every day mcdonald's helps more people go to college.

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plus, ask how to get free installation. call, go online, or demo in an xfinity store today. that a wraps it up for me. i turn it over to my friend alex witt. >> sure you don't want to hang out and stay? so much to cover. thank you so much for the setup. good morning to all of you. i'm alex witt here in new york at msnbc world headquarters. 8:00 on the nose here in the east, 5:00 a.m. out west. what's happening, a live look at the senate floor. rare all-night debate after key undecided votes swing in favor of president trump's embattled supreme court nominee. >> mr. president, i will vote to confirm judge kavanaugh. >> senator susan collins, republican of maine, delivering