. my thanks to our panel. thank you fu fyou for hosting u. m tch mtp daily starts now. >> nicolle, where are you? i'm in your story. >> i've gone rogue. >> and i'm not there. anyway, thank you. if it is tuesday, we have a tale of two midterms. ♪ good evening. i'm chuck todd here in noin new. it might have a nervous couple of weeks for democrats. is it still a wave if republicans increase their margin in the senate? we have a blabd nrand new poll will probably rattle a few democrats. but right now republicans seem

eager to deal their base energized after winning the bruising confirmation battle for justice brett kavanaugh. they are warning that democrats will try to impeach kavanaugh. they are painting democrats as a, quote, angry mob and playing up a supreme court justice as a supreme political spectacle. kavanaugh has ignited the gone base and republicans are eager to fan those flames as long as this fire lasts. >> the mob would like to make itself perfectly clear, mr. president. if democrats retake congress, progressives expect them to use their full power to get kavanaugh off the bench. >> in their quest for power, the radical democrats have turn nd to an angry mob. >> i'm glad those who tried to overturn t turn turn the rule o. >> and the president spoke to

reporters again and repeat his claim about kavanaugh protestors being paid plofgs ls a professi. >> how do you keep your base energized now that they have the kavanaugh victory? >> that is a very good question. how do you keep your base energized now that you have the big cath vehickavanaugh victory? just by winning. the energy i don't think it has ever been greater. maybe 2016 where you remember the nurg was veenergy was very . forces saying things that were evil, they were bad people. >> and now to the big question. what does it mean for the midterms? if you are a democrat, the last thing you want for is a poll showing that you are behind

broke trump. but right now senator dean heller is leading the democratic nominee by two points among lightly vot likely voters. but highest we have had heller ever. 46%. and republicans aren't being blown out when it comes to enthusiasm. 90% of democrats in democrats say midterms are very important. but a poll might spook democrats in other battle ground states. republicans clearly view kavanaugh as the best thing politically to happen to them just 28 days from the midterm. but it is 28 days. there is a hurricaneing across florida. so perhaps there is a sugar high.

remember after the denver debate. perhaps republicans are just coming home a little earlier than usual and perhaps they can't beat the headwinds of a midterm election like this one where there is nearly 40 openhouse seats. s about s about as i've sid, it might be nerve yver nervous un terms. we have this nevada poll that steam seems to add that republicans have at lease caug least caught in senate races. sugar high or something consequential? >> that is one poll and one cal pain. jackie rosen is a little underperforming. so not entirely surprising. it is hard to know.

we have seen in our own polling that the generic ballot continues to be quite in the favor a of democrats. search when it comes to the house. the senate was always going to be tough. that is a race dnl democrats we likely to win. but we are in a fraught environment. it is a month out. we have kavanaugh hangover. it could help republicans motivate their barks se, it cou motivate democrats a lot. but where i think you are right, we have to get off the kavanaugh churn and get back to something resembling stable. >> and to increase our insecurity when what we know, cnn is out with a poll mock likelik -- among likely voters. and that is a piece of evidence runs counter. and maybe they are an out-laird.

we don't know. >> you mentioned october of 2016. october 7th, the access hollywood tape and everybody talking about trump dropping out. you have to be really careful. a month in politics in the fall is a lifetime. every week is the equivalent of a month, several months back. that is how quickly things can change. what i'm looking for is charlie cook's numbers, toss-up states, versus leec leasuccess lean dem lean republican. you have 15 races that lean democrats. so sthey need eight are more an they don't have them. the democrats need to get those races moved from toss-up to lean democrat before they can feel secure about the house. >> and how important is this for

the gop to keep this flame lit? >> i think it is everything. because i don't think that anybody anticipated the blow back that kavanaugh would create by his testimony and what happened afterwards. and it was the first ray of light that republicans had seen and they were startled i think frankly startled by the enthusiasm kavanaugh generated. i think there was double counting going on, this is terrible for the gop, it will hurt the gop, it is really going to, you know, knock the stuffing out of them. but i think that that change had already happened. in other words, this flight ofu

and 2018. i think the run base is a pro-life, blpro gun. and when liberals went after kavanaugh, they decided to circle the wagons around him. and i think people were just overly enthusiastic that this was the death blow. >> how important do you think it is for democrats not take the bait? >> there will be activist base that will talk about that. i swrnhaven't seen any serious candidate talking about that. people will push it online. but the whole issue of calling people a mob, democrats tried

that in 10 20 in 2010 with the . all fake, it is really not there. >> and i'm guessing most proc d protestors are paid if they are got there for you. >> hard to call mob if the nazis are not a mob, but democrats exercising their first amendments rights are a mob. but they are so disciplined. they are all in the same playbook. and they take the gaffes on the other side. so trump talking about the other side being evil. remember, just a couple weeks ago when cory booker used the word, brett kavanaugh threw it in his face. and now the president is using it and nobody is noticing. >> in-pa think part of this is there are ideas that trigger the republican base just as they are

ideas that trigger democrats. and the idea that there is some kind of a mob coming for kavanaugh works because it is precisely pushing that button that they need to push with the republicans. because now we're just getting down to the fact that we have four weeks before the election and if hard core republicans don't drag themselves over gloos get to t -- glass to get them to the poll, that toss-up number is garbage. it will tilt toward democrats. 20, 30, 40 seats will tilt toward democrats. >> what does it say that they have where jumpi are jumping on it? this headline is impeach cath. immigration wasn't working, we don't like talking about health care. the tax cut hasn't worked. finally something that works. okay. what if this only works for a week. >> it is a proxy for the de

legitizatil -- deleg deleg de l-lede lla -- if you believe, you have to believe in kavanaugh. it is reminding you that trump's base have the power. >> i remember that we were speculating when trump was trying to make about himself. and now kavanaugh is easier to rally a guy like you who is not a big trump fan to say oh, yeah, wait a minute, you are going after kavanaugh. >> and the democrats didn't go in the breyer patch when it was the idea of 2ru6rtrump being impeached. >> let's me play what nancy

pelosi said. take a listen. >> people care about what happens to them in their lives. sthee t they see the cost of health care, a paycheck that doesn't go as far takes should. they doubt whether their voice counts for much because big special interests weighing in. >> she is probably right. >> absolutely. and the frooutruth is it only t one undisciplined democrat or a partisan liberal to make some--6 write some op-ed about impeachment. i think ultimately the four bikes is t-- 9 weeks is the problem. in trump's america, four bikes is -- weeks is four years.

people will get bore and they will have to be something else -- >> let me bring up two events. number one, the denver debate in 2012. rm enth republican ennews ychl surthune. and access hollywood was the other way. is that -- are we experiencing something like that? or after the world clears will we have a better sense? >> a mid term a different than a presidential race.

fundamentals are baked in. we have even democratic enthusiasm outpace the republican edge nennews yachlte. >> but there is a new bloc voting by women? you have had ethnic groups. if you had an t ittaalian candi withdrawn, it at a tital i don' would vote for that gcandidate.

but the question is whether this year that might change. women just want to vote for women. >> and there are a large piece that gets forgotten in these conversations. the gender gap and female surge in the democrat party is very real. it has been power everything since the election. but it is not a 100%. and i think -- ultimately republicans are betting on a bank shot that somehow they can get people to vote for a republican at the house level to send a message to democrats and it seem taos ha seem taos ha seems to have very little to do

for someone who is -- >> do republicans pick up senate seats? >> probably maybe one. because of the structure. >> but it is still an unusual thing. 40 feels like -- i buy it at 20 to 30 that republicans could thin wi then win. bruh w but 40 feels like -- >> there are coattails. and if somebody is really energized to vote say for a woman house candidate, they might be more likely to vote for the democratic candidate for senate. >> you are talking about a wave that will affect every race. remember 2010, democrats lost 62 seats in obama's first midterm. very unusual to haves the two -- >> single most unusual cycle of

senators where democrats have had unusual good luck. the two >> single most unusual cycle of senators where democrats have had unusual good luck. >> and missouri, claire mccaskill probably shoochbts ul win. but she -- this is where the wave stuff gets weird. if there is a democratic search in t -- surge in the cities st. louis and kansas city, voting for the house could save claire mccaskill in the senate. without that, she would be a goner. usually you would think it would be the senate race. >> and heidi heitkamp, not a business surge big surge in the suburbs. >> and she made a vote on principle and there are a lot of people in her home state who like people who are independent. so she has few weeks to turn this around. i wouldn't write her off. >> it is a small state.

everybody knows everybody. so i don't write montana off either. up ahead, is president trump looking beyond the midterms? if you sgrunyou judge by his sc travel, this is a 2020 week. we'll explain. 'll explain. [ dramatic music playing ] we need to fail down here so we don't fail up there. we got a bad fire. they're gone, neil. what are the chances this is the last time the boys are gonna see you? do you think you're coming back? we have serious problems. [ dramatic music continues ] first man. rated pg-13.

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>> customer: really?! >> tech: being there whenever you need us that's another safelite advantage. >> singers: safelite repair, safelite replace. (music throughout) president trump is head to go iowa tonight for his latest campaign rally as part of his efforts to help republicans keep control of congress. after iowa, he is off to pennsylvania and ohio. but anyone of those states

really where the battle ground is for the senate. and all of those are places where he won he won in on 2016. so rim rin pennsylvania, bob ca been leading by double digits. and same goes in ohio for sherrod brown's re-election race against jim are a nas cirenacci.

and vumptrump will need them al. it did strike me when you see him going to western iowa, yes, part of the third congressional district there. he is going to ierie. places that means more to him in 2020. feels like this is testing the reelect week. >> this is a president who filed for re-election on the day he was inaugurated for the first term. never seen nick lianything like. so his re-election campaign is running flat out. even if the republicans hold the senate, president trump is in troubling in some of these states. he has fallen considerably in approval and the midwest as a whole seems to be flipping in a midterm year. states that he carried are getting ready it appears to either elect democratic senators or democratic governors or both. >> and it is interesting, the one part of the quote, wave, that has gotten less attention.

we made it our lead today. sort of the big ten states that was hugely important to barack obama's election and re-election. and it is how he held off mitt romney and hugely important in durd' donald trump's win. it appears to be tariffs. if you find an issue that people say they aren't judging him yet, but you can't help but notice that as he threatened tariffs, republican numbers started eroding in those mid western -- particularly thing a ge ag grin agriculture ray mid western states. >> and let's not for to get that many of those mid western states as we know, they are the nice part of america. i'm not going to disoig new york

or california, but you don't get the time of day from there. mid westerners may not react to some of the things that donald trump says on sdr. and this reminds us that 2016 was a choice. it wasn't simply that people decided to votes for donald trump in a vacuum. many were voting against hillary clinton. maybe you dispute the premise, but essentially takes twit is a pronged decision. >> i've always said the biggest error was treating 20 on 16 16 when it was more of a referendum on her. and one of the other things that i thought '16 was the historical head wind.

hoi how long do you think that we are understatement the normal history? >> if there has ever been an abnormal presidency, we're in it. and trump has violated so many of the rules of politics and so many of the norms of politics. that we hesitate to say, well, history shows us that x will happen, therefore it will happen under trump. but if you are saying a red wave ain't going too-to-happen, it is a question of how big the blue wave is. it could be a wave, but there will be a blue wave. >> when are you going to feel more comfortable to know the kavanaugh effect? and how sustaining it is. >> probably about 9:30, 10:00

p.m. on election night but we have to have a week to settle this. and it is too soon. if i had to guess, i'd say both paces were spoktoke would by th but republicans were lags. people aren't changes sides. instead, this is the party's reaching people who are very likely to turn out if they are energized. >> what is it -- one of the -- as you noted, president trump has sort of blown up norms. but nothing could blow it up more if we truly have a two america style election. meaning democrats win 40 house seats and somehow republicans gain in the senate. it is a geographic anomaly. but i have to tell you, i am struggling to figure out how they would pick up 40 house seats and not at least be a net

neutral in senate. >> it is stuff tough until i lo the map. so i can see how it will happen. and interestingly, the academic models that predict these elections, and they did much better than the rest of us in 2016, they are predicting just that, that the democrats will pick up a lot of house seats. goes up to 44 seats. and at the same time, they are saying that republicans will keep the senate and a maybe even add a seats or two. it has happened. we have had several elections where that splirt mass opolice-s occurred. >> of course it fits right in. >> i'm with you. it is sort of like par for the

trump course. golfing analogy was on purpose. larry, as always, thank you. go canes. >> you know would will win. >> see you on the lawn i hope. up heed, tahead, the growin mystery surrounding this missing saudi journal it's. missing saudi journal it's a once-in-five hundred year storm should happen every five hundred years, right? fact is, there have been twenty-six in the last decade. allstate is adapting. with drones to assess home damage sooner. and if a flying object damages your car, you can snap a photo and get your claim processed in hours, not days. plus, allstate can pay your claim in minutes. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

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welcome blaack. in a moment that perhaps called for healing, for trying to bibd the wounds of the kavanaugh spectacle, president trump instead decided to rip the scab off. >> what happened to the kavanaugh family violates every notion of fairness, decency and due process. and with that, i must state that you, sir, under historic scrutiny were proven innocenct. thank. >> i know we're used to partisanship, but, okay, of course justice kavanaugh was not proven nchbinnocent. nor proven guilty.

kavanaugh said all the right things. >> every measuamerican can be ad that i will be dwoe will goadee justice under law. so was was he there? he had already been sworn in saturday. so kavanaugh insisted that it is all revenge by the clintons or on behalf of the clintons and then appeared with the president who just called the accusations against kavanaugh a democratic hoax. consider this. journalists work hard, are supposed to be impartial .

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killed there. a security camera appears to show him walking into the consulate. we have seen no evidence that he ever walked out. a state department spokesman says that the secretary pompeo has spoken with saudi officials and the u.s. does not know what happened. vice president pence says he is deeply troubled adding violence is against journalists is a threats. and joining us, richard engel. this is alarming to say the least. does anybody believe he is alive? >> it is possible. there are two working theories in istanbul. they are leaning toward that he is dead, but the other work theory is that this is a renditi rendition, an attempt by the saudis to grab him out of

country for interrogation, to work him over, try to teach him a lesson, try to change him and converts him and that that rendition may have gone badly and he died in the process. so two working theorys. one, they meant to grab him and didn't. the other is that they meant to grab him and kill him. >> he called him what we are seeing now, impulsive, that he was authoritarian and in his last interview three days before he disappeared, he was afraid to go home go home. >> and more outrage at the state department.

>> and he has an ally in jared kushner and in israel. in the uae. and in egyegypt. these are people who would not like to cause a major controversy to a friend. to someone they hope will deliver a broad expansive peace in the middle east. >> there has been a working theory in a mbs will be this practicing nat sthis -- this pragmatic leader. he ismournizing. a practicigmatic hope. >> aend he is a transformative figure. and since it is founded, it has worked one way where the sons, brother to brother to brother to

brother have become kings. it is not what you normally think flgof as a monarchy. because he had 45 male children. the concern now among all the other members of the royal family is that now it will change. and it will go from the king to his son and son of fwragrand s d grandson and the rest of the royals will be cut off. >> will saudi arabia pay a price if essentially the world community including the western allies can prove that they were behind his death? >> if they can't find a body, i think that it will be very difficult to make saudi arabia pay a price. because at this stage it is sort of a he said/she said.

mostly unnamed turkish officials are putting a lot of pressure, but they want the problem to go away. right now it is a he said/she said. there were these convoys that left the koconsulate, planes th mysteriously took off. but they don't have a body. >> that american president today that was asked about jamal said i've read about reports, he didn't seem to be concerned. he didn't express concern. he didn't issue a warning that the saudis i hope what i'm hearing isn't true. anything like that. >> no, and he was saying, well, i don't know. it is a he said/she said. >> is that giving a permission slip? what are the unintended

consequences that the united states is not calling out saudi arabia on this or china over what they have done to the head of interpol? are they related? >> i think it might be too broad of a brush to say a that they are all related. they are to a degree that this president respects people who use power. seems to have a pension for and you are authoritarian leaders. but what i was trying to say is there is a -- he is saying that saudis didn't do it and turks s that they did. but turks have images of him going into don't lconsulate and

they have the evidence. >>. appreciate it. a hurricane is coming could it change the political forecast. g could it change the political forecast could it change the political forecast. could it change the political forecast. could it change the political forecast alright, i brought in ensure max protein...

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landfall tomorrow. in the florida panhandle. governor scott is of course overseeing statewide preparations and calling on residents to evacuate. andrew gillim is getting his city ready. and they will be handling cleanup efforts. politician oversees a successful response to a hurricane can improve their popularity. but if it is subpar, residents will recommend that too. literally the smallest change in every direction could be the difference in a win or a loss. both have an opportunity that their opponents just don't have. in times of storm preparation, they say how much money do you need. we'll watch it over the next 24 hours. and wi we're taking mtp daily on the road. next week we'll be out west in

phoenix and las vegas. a couple states will democrats are looking to flip some seats. and the week after in tampa and dallas. if you live in those areas or if you don't, detail on the how to watch in your neck of the woods back after this. s back after this. to most, he's phil mickelson, pro golfer. to me, he's, well, dad. so when his joint pain from psoriatic arthritis got really bad, it scared me. and what could that pain mean? joint pain could mean joint damage.

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senior-ranked official has been the subject of a vicious weeks-long whis herring campaign in which you watch this dead man talking -- >> tillerson, go down the line. >> tillerson, pruitt, mcmaster. >> went on forever. this is the first time that it's like flash. nikki haley resigning. what? where did this come from? my god, there must be some big story here because she wasn't hung out to dry for weeks. >> but nikki haley i think has done, first of all, she would very cleverly all the time say, any time i remember early on in the administration you'd ask her about some sort of drama between rex tillerson -- i'm in new york, i'm not down there, i don't know anything. she really, i think -- it's like -- and she's getting out just before other people get out, right after the midterms, you know there's going to be a new a.g. supposedly -- is this just clever timing on her part? >> you know, for many, many reasons people are very interested in nikki haley, much more so than your typical dead

man walking type -- >> the tom price speaking tour is not something everybody is -- >> he left, kick him on the way out. nikki, on the other hand, has maintained an independent political identity, she's spoken out on issues her boss, president trump, would not speak out on. these attractive as a candidate potentially for national office. she's got a very strange amalgam of views and history politically. i remember seeing her for the first time, she was welcoming rick perry to south carolina. she sounded like a tea party person. like tough on obama. this was 2011. and then lo and behold a few years later, she was the governor of south carolina who brought down that confederate flag on that capitol. so she sort of really tacked toward the moderate direction while the rest of the party was getting more conservative and more trumpian. it's really unclear to me how that would serve her going forward. >> i give her credit for getting out now, on positive note, when so many others -- she gets credit with trump folks for

serving and not penalized for leaving. >> she also -- there are a couple of career options for her. if trump is way behind the democrat in 2020, he could dump pence. stranger things have happened. than for him to put -- >> she probably is going to be constantly in the bullpen, if you will, the candidate bullpen. >> and if lindsey graham becomes attorney general, there have been lots of rumors, you could see him appoint her -- >> it could happen. you know lindsey graham, i feel i know him pretty well that guy loves being a senator. i cannot imagine him giving up a senate seat for two or four years of a.g. >> i don't think he wants to be a.g. he might want to be secretary of state or secretary of defense but not a.g., he doesn't want to be a.g. i think nikki haley's future, she did this job, she got out of it everything she could possibly get out of it -- >> she has foreign policy

credentials that she didn't have before. >> she's done two u.n. general assemblies. managed america's position during the general assembly meetings in september of 2017 and september of 2018. and there's not much more to do with that job. >> if you're running for president in 2024 and you've got made a lot of money in your life, maybe giving yourself three or four years to go work in the private sector, beth, isn't a bad idea. >> that's a long time out of the spotlight if she's coming back. >> i'm just thinking, i'm just saying. >> in her statement today, offering resignation, she said, i about will not be a candidate for any office in 2020. >> i believe her. >> yeah, not senate, not president. she really sounds like she wants to go. i think the biggest mystery -- >> he's so skeptical. your eye roll, you didn't even roll them and i could see them rolling. >> these sorts of statements -- >> i hear you. >> she has said she's going to serve until the end of the year, then someone else will come in, giving trump time to find

somebody. she might be giving herself time to find a civic job where she can make herself financially secure so that she can spend the next decade, the 2020s, making herself a future. >> she's not -- she wouldn't be the first potential future presidential candidate to be thinking about this, six years in advance. up ahead, i confess. so should you. fidelity is redefining value.

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in case you missed it, i have a confession to make. come on, come closer. a little closer, it's all right. there we go. this election cycle has been totally crazy. and i can't be the only one who thinks so. that's why we're relaunching our nbc news election confessions. yes, you always have to whisper them. if you have something to get off your chest about 2018, do it here. do it anonymously. not on some social media feed, do it with us. and the confessing has already begun. there's a 57-year-old in indiana who writes, i think the midterms are not going to go well for democrats. i'm a democrat who's very frustrated with the arrogance of the party and the refusal to deal with voter turnout problems. 65-year-old michiganer writes, i was a lifelong republican voter since my first vote in 1972, i will never vote for a republican for any office after the way the gop has enabled trump, ever.

check it out at electionconfessions.com. we've always wondered, are people saying one thing and secretly thinking another? this is some way to try to figure that out. share your fears, your outrage, your confusion, your anything. maybe a good recipe for something to calm us down. do it all without sharing names. go ahead, america, confess away. and oh -- you don't want to get that close to me anymore, that's for sure. all right, that's all we have for tonight. we'll be back tomorrow with more "mtp daily." "the beat" with ari melber starts now. >> chuck, good evening. this is anonymous, this system. >> ah. >> maybe the famous letter-writing to the "new york times" op ed page could have used it. >> yes, that would have been a better way to get your point across about this administration. >> just saying. >> to whoever wrote it. >> save time for the intrigue. chuck todd, thank you very much. ambassador nickty halley is not the only woman bailing on donald trump. our top story is a huge new