that is our broadcast on a monday night as we start a new week. thank you so very much for being with us, and good night from nbc news headquarters here in new york. we are monitoring breaking news right now. at any moment, the president of turkey is set to give an update on the killing of jamal kashoggi. erdogan promises to, quote, go into detail about the murder. again, that is supposed to happen at any moment now. we're going to bring you the very latest when that happens. good morning, everyone. i'm ayman mohyeldin alongside hallie jackson and louis burgdorf. president trump is waking up here in washington this morning after a trip to texas where he continued to push unfounded claims about immigration and more ahead of the midterms. as the lead headline in this morning's "washington post"

describes the strategy, it's a bet on fear and falsehoods. voter satisfaction is the enemy of voter turnout. while voters are still happy in the direction the president is leading the country, they're angry at the way democrats treated judge kavanagh. they're scared when they hear democrats talk about socializing medicine and medicare for all. and voters are plugged in as the president spends more and more time on the campaign trail. but a lot of what the president is saying is not true. quote, trump has been a serial liar for just about everything, but he has rarely before deployed so many complete fabrications at the same time. that proves a wide and unproven claim of widespread illegal voting. >> the democrat plan to destroy american health care includes free health care and education to illegal aliens.

they want to be able to vote, the illegals. i hate to tell you, you go to california they vote anyway. and they're not supposed to. >> again, no evidence of widespread voter fraud. president trump disbanded his own commission on voter integrity without finding evidence oh that. >> president trump embraced a former 2016 rival, none other than senator ted cruz, who's in a close battle for reelection. cruz told the republican convention, you may recall, to vote your conscience. trump had personally attacked cruz's family, everything from the physical appearance of his wife heidi. he even implied his father was involved in the assassination of president kennedy. >> ted and i got along very well late into the campaign. then it became very nasty. and then it was over. he's not lyin' ted anybody.

he's beautiful ted. he's texas -- i call him texas ted. [ inaudible question ] >> i don't regret anything honestly. it all worked out very nicely. >> new polls as we head down to florida show the republican governor there is in an uphill battle to win a senate seat from the democrats. the quinnipiac poll puts senator bill nelson six points ahead of governor rick scott. you've got scott and nelson essentially tied in a st. pete poll. a cnn poll also shows nelson beginning to build a lead. scott's campaign is pushing back on these independent polls, releasing their own internal numbers showing scott leading nelson by five points. let's check out north dakota. there republican congressman kevin kramer has a commanding

lead over heidi heitkamp. in west virginia, democrat senator joe manchin leading 52-36% over patrick morrissey. president trump actually put the chairman of the house's taxes writing committee on the spot, promising congress will put in a 10% income tax cut sometime next week after white house reporters questioned him about it on his way to houston. >> you said that you wanted tax cuts by november 1st. congress isn't even in session. >> we're putting in a resolution sometime in the next week or week and a half. >> a resolution where? >> we're giving a middle income tax reduction of about 10%. we're doing it now for middle

income people. this is not for business. this is for middle. that's on top of the tax decrease. >> are you signing an executive order for that? >> no, no. i'm going through congress. >> congress is out. >> we'll do the vote after the election. >> ted is leading the charge in congress for tax cuts. in fact, i just left kevin brady. by the way, how good is kevin brady? he's here. we're going to be putting in a 10% tax cut for middle income families. it's going to be put in next week. 10% tax cut. kevin brady is working on it. we've been working on it for a few months. this is for middle income people, all middle income people, a big tax cut, 10%.

now if the democrats take over, i can't speak. i'm sorry. kevin, we're putting in next week the 10% reduction in middle income taxes, right? next week. okay. he promised in front of 22,000 people. i don't need that. he promised to me. that's good. >> president trump mentioned this tax cut for the first time on saturday. some republican leaders expressed skepticism on how to pay for it given this year's 17% increase in the deficit. >> let's get a fact check on the many claims president trump is making about immigration and specifically that central american migrant caravan, because there are plenty starting with this tweet. the president saying the criminals and unknown middle

ea eastearn ea ea eastern eastern easterners. >> take your cameras and go into the middle and search. you're going to find ms-13. you're going to find middle eastern. >> a former intelligence official tells nbc news there's no evidence that any middle eastern terrorists are hiding in the caravan. the president tweeted think of and blame the democrats when you see the caravans, something he echoed when you see that campaign rally. >> do you know how the caravan started? i think the democrats had something to do with it. now they're saying i think we made a big mistake, because people are seeing how bad it is, how pathetic it is, how bad our laws are. >> no evidence to back that up. as for the bad laws the president keeps talking about, keep in mind republicans are the ones in control of the white house and congress. they have not passed immigration

reform. the president's border wall has not been funded. joining us eugene scott. i asked white house press secretary sarah huckabee sanders about this. why is he seeming to say so many more untrue things now? what's up with this strategy in your view? >> because it works for him. this is the same approach he took in 2016 that motivated so many of the groups who backed him to come out, especially in states like texas, arizona and nevada. conservative who s who live clo the border are fearful of what immigrants can do if they come to the u.s., despite many of the things trump has claimed they will do not being supported by the facts. >> let me ask you about the president and this constant talk of a tax cut and putting people

like kevin brady there on the spot. have you heard any republicans who are willing to come out and say, look, this is nonsense. why are the republicans going along with this when they know it's not true? >> i think what republicans do know is that their base is with donald trump. and if they want to keep their seats in the house and senate, they should not distance themselves from him. he is one of the most effective get out the vote strategist that is the republican party has. even if what he's saying is not true and they can't back it up when they do get back into congress, they believe it's in their best interest right now not to check him publicly. >> this is not the last we're going to be seeing of president trump this week. he's back in washington today. he has some events at the white house. then he hits the road again. we expect a ton of travel in the last two weeks until the midterms. >> absolutely. this is what trump enjoys most. this allows him to answer

journalist's questions often and get out in the field and talk to the people who have backed him most. he would rather be outside of d.c. than here in the white house. russia is firing back at president trump's threat to pull out of a decades-old nuclear arms treaty. russia pledged that it would be forced to respond in kind to restore military balance with the u.s. if donald trump went through with his threat and began developing new nuclear missiles. the fate of the 1987 arms treaty is at the forefront of john bolton's trip to russia. during a meeting on monday a senior russian official signalled they would be ready to give some ground and address concerns over how the treaty has been implemented. back in the states, president trump was asked if he was ready to build up this country's nuclear arsenal. take a listen. >> russia has not adhered to the

agreement. we have more money than anybody else by far. we'll build it up until they come to their senses. when they do, we'll all be smart and we'll all stop. by the way, not only stop, we'll reduce, which i would love to do. >> but the president isn't putting the blame on just russia calling out china's role in the growing arms race. china is not currently a party to the treaty. still ahead, we talked about how president trump is framing the midterms. >> this will be the election of the caravan, kavanaugh, law and order, tax cuts and common sense. that's what it is, common sense. >> but now democrats are bringing out the heavy hitters with barack obama and joe biden just two weeks out. we are back in a moment. we're also monitoring the turkish president's address to congress where he's expected to give details on the

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we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. welcome back, everyone. a czech soldier part of a nato mission in afghanistan was killed yesterday in kabul in an apparent insider attack. two other czech service members were also injured. it comes after five czech soldiers were wounded and two civilians were killed last wednesday in a taliban attack on a nato convoy near kabul. the deadliest incident for the czech army on foreign soil in nearly four years. last night, hours after the czech soldier was killed, president trump had this to say. >> we are getting other countries to pay up and pay their fair share for our military protection, including nato. you've got to pay up. you've got to pay!

they weren't paying. we're protecting them. we're protecting them and that's great, but they've got to pay. >> two weeks before the midterms a leaked memo with the draft of a proposal to roll back transgender rights has created a political uproar. one that came to pennsylvania yoe yesterday. demonstrators raising flags and voices after a new report says the trump administration is considering narrowly defining gender as male or female based on genitalia at birth, rolling back a more broad definition under president obama. the "new york times" says it obtained the draft memo, describing the move as the most drastic yet to eliminate rights for transgender americans. the lgbtq advocates have a message for president trump. we will not be erased. if implemented, the new definition could hit hardest in places protected by federal anti-discrimination laws, like schools.

the first openly transgender appointee in the obama white house. >> this flies in the face of conventional wisdom and really an attack on a small minority of people who just want to be respected and protected by the rule of law. >> then-candidate trump promised protection. now -- what about your promise to protect the lgbt community? >> i'm protecting everything. >> a 2016 federal court ruling on discrimination describes sex as separate from gender identity. still it's not clear whether the agency will move forward with the more restrictive definition. this would have to go to the doj. louis, still a question of ti timeline on this thing, whether and how it moves forward. let's get a check on your weather now with nbc meteorologist bill karins. bill, you've got a hurricane, category 4 on the western coast

of mexico named willa. it's going to hit north of puerto vallarta. >> by the time we get to this weekend it's going to be moving through northeast. you can see the storm here. it lost its well-defined eye. yesterday was a category 5. it's doing an eye wall replacement cycle. sometimes that weakens the storm. right now we're looking at it being a category 2 storm. it has winds of -- excuse me, category 4 storm, 130 miles an hour. yesterday it was 155. they do think landfall as a category 3. that's a lot better than a 5. then we'll take all that moisture and bring it up here to texas. here's the rainfall forecast through thursday. notice the purple. that's about an inch and a half of rain, same areas that had the

flooding last week in areas, especially there in texas. right now it doesn't look heavy enough to cause a lot of extreme flooding, maybe just isolated flash flooding. it's going to be a soaking rain here wednesday in texas and then through the southeast into thursday. so this is 5:00 p.m. this evening, some rain and tropical moisture all the way through new mexico. here's the landfall down in mexico itself. a ton of moisture in texas on wednesday. dallas and san antonio wednesday afternoon, wednesday evening you'll be driving home in the rain. by thursday we track the rain through the southeast including pensacola and montgomery. thursd we also have a weak storm going through new england today. going to have rain on and off in areas like boston. we've got the world series taking place this evening, but temperatures will be on the coolish side in the 50s.

temperature today, beautiful day in d.c. little cold shot back here through the northern great lakes. tomorrow behind that little storm we're going to have some cold air coming in through new england. we'll talk about the storm and that world series forecast coming up. if you have plans on saturday and friday on the east coast, it looks like a nor'easter type storm coming up. not snow, but windy and rainy. still ahead, we are following the breaking news on the killing of "washington post" columnist jamal kashoggi. president erdogan is talking about the investigation. we will bring you the latest when we come back. sometimes bipolar i disorder can really get you going. but mania, such as unusual changes in your mood, activity or energy levels, can leave you on shaky ground. help take control by asking your healthcare provider about vraylar. vraylar treats acute mania of bipolar i disorder.

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welcome back. i'm hallie jackson alongside amid a ayman mohyeldin and louis burgdorf. that breaking news, the latest on the investigation into the murder of jamal kashoggi happened in the saudi consulate in istanbul back on october 2nd. right now turkey's president is delivering a speech to his parliament where he's revealing details of the investigation. just moments ago president erdogan said saudi officials planned the murder of kashoggi

days before his death. his remarks come as korea director gina haspel is in turkey to try to find out more information about what happened. president trump latest saudi explanation on kashoggi's killing. >> i'm going to know very shortly, because i have a great group of people in turkey right now and a great group of people in saudi arabia. we will know very soon. we have tremendously talented people that do this stuff very well. they're coming back tonight and tomorrow and i will know very soon. i'm not satisfied with what i've heard. >> president trump later appeared to back up parts of the saudi explanation, saying kashoggi was killed in a, quote, plot gone awry and he didn't think kashoggi was lured into

the consulate to be murdered. >> steve mnuchin met the saudi arabia's crown prince mohammed bin salman, revealing the trump administration's push to keep close ties with the embattled leader. mnuchin met with mbs yesterday in riyadh after he announced last week he was pulling out of an investor conference over the disappearance and death. now the treasury secretary spokesman tweeted that during their meeting they discussed combatting terrorism, financing, implementing iran sanctions, saudi economic issues as well as the kashoggi investigation. meanwhile, jared kushner spoke yesterday on the administration's stance on saudi arabia amid the ongoing

controversy and his advice to the saudi crown prince. take a listen. >> do you trust the saudis to sort this out? >> like i said, we're getting facts in from multiple places. once those facts come in, the secretary of state will work with our national security team to help us determine what we want to believe and what we think is credible and what we think is not credible. >> even trump says there was deception and lies. i mean, do you see anything that seems deceptive? >> i see things that are deceptive every day in the middle east, i see them in washington. so, again, we have our eyes wide open. >> what kind of advice would you give mbs in this whole situation? >> just to be transparent, to be fully transparent. the world is watching. this is a very, very serious accusation and a very series situation and to make sure you're transparent and to take this very seriously.

>> and president trump at a campaign rally in nevada over the weekend claims that californians are rioting against so-called sanctuary cities. >> i don't think we like sanctuary cities up here. by the way, a lot of people in california don't want them either. they're rioting now. they want to get out of their sanctuary cities. you know, there's a big turn being made, folks. a lot of these sanctuary cities you've been hearing about in california and other places, but california they want to get out. they're demanding they be released from sanctuary cities. >> trump made those comments at a rally for dean heller on saturday. however, there is no evidence of rioting in california. it's unclear what the president was referring to. president trump was asked about his comments when departing the white house on his way to another campaign rally yesterday.

>> take a look. they want to get out of sanctuary cities. >> the president, by the way, didn't respond to follow-up questions about where specifically he was talking about. on the democratic side, former president obama and joe biden both campaigned for democrats in rallies, both responding to president trump's latest claims on health care, the economy, the democratic party. let's start in las vegas where president obama tried to set the record straight on health care. >> i do think it's interesting. i just hope people kind of notice that every time there's a pattern where they run things into the ground and we have to come back and clean things up. so by the time i left office, wages were rising, uninsurance rate was falling, poverty was falling. and that's what i handed off to the next guy.

so when you hear all this talk about economic miracles right now, remember who started it. remember who started it. come on. now, let me say something as the person who actually passed the law that prevents people with preexisting conditions from being discriminated against. i can tell you that they have no way of protecting preexisting conditions with anything they've proposed. they're just saying it. they're just making it up. >> so that's former president obama. you also had former vice president joe biden in florida. he was emphasizing the importance of america's role on the world stage, campaigning for

andrew g senator bill nelson. >> it's about time we lift our heads up, get the hell up and take back the country. it's about who we are. it's about dreaming again, dreaming again. it's about possibilities. remember, this is the united states of america. unlike any country in the world. that's not hyperbole. so let's take it back. take it back and lead the world. >> back with us now, reporter for the "washington post" eugene scott. let's talk democrats here. you had barack obama and joe biden out on the campaign trail. is this foreshadowing how the democrats are planning to go after donald trump before the midterms. >> essentially we had them trying to protect their legacy and their time in washington and reminding voters of what they were able to accomplish.

what they certainly are trying to do is just make it clear that the trump administration is not being truthful about what they are doing now, its impact on all americans. and they haven't made clear that they have a plan to make sure that america becomes great for everyone outside of the identity groups that are more likely to vote for the gop candidates. >> with the midterms just around the corner, the president who's always made immigration central to his campaign rhetoric, he's now made this caravan the focus of a lot of comments over the course of the last couple of days. is this going to work with voters? >> it probably will. we've seen voters on the ground as far north as montana who have expressed concern about the immigrant caravan without any support or truth regarding what has happened, where they even are and what are the concerns that they bring to american residents. many of trump's voters who

support him are just really fearful of undocumented immigrants. trump knows that and he's hoping it will work for him again. >> let me ask you about what's happening overseas in turkey. president erdogan is addressing his parliament there, talking more in depth about the death of "washington post" journalist jamal kashoggi. so far we understand that president erdogan has said that turkey believes saudi officials planned this days before the disappearance of kashoggi. president trump has repeatedly been asked about this. where does this go next? >> we don't see or have reason to believe that trump is going to believe erdogan. he still believes that it was a plot gone awry. he certainly doesn't have much interest in implementing sanctions right now against saudi arabia. i mean, we definitely saw jared kushner say that they want more information, there are still questions that need answers to.

so what could happen ultimately in the long-term isn't clear, but i would say not only pay attention to the trump white house, but also to republicans in congress. >> as we watch this speech, we're also hearing that the president of turkey wants to hold all of the officials that were involved in this accountable. he had some questions about the remains of the body of jamal kashoggi and wanting to know where those remains are. what role, if any, can congress play on the nature of the relationship between saudi arabia and the united states? we know the president is completely in line with the saudi narrative so far at least. but we are hearing from some members of congress like rand paul and others saying that the relationship with saudi arabia has changed and that mbs, the powerful crown prince, has to step aside. >> republicans in congress, if they truly value human rights, can speak out against the importance of protecting free press and showing that there could be real consequences in terms of business relationships,

investment and national security with countries who do not honor people as human beings and treat members of the media with little disregard. i think that would make a statement to their voters, to americans who are not on the conservative side of the line and just the people around the world, allies and enemies alike. >> as we were talking, we were getting more information from the turkish president who just called for a trial of some of those saudi individuals to be held in istanbul. the foreign minister also said that turkey would cooperate with the u.n. investigation. we'll see if either one of those materializes and whether the u.s. and saudi arabia would go along. still ahead, a former advisor to donald trump speaking out about his alleged connections to the hacked democratic e-mails. what roger stone is saying about all of this and how it fits into the special counsel's russia investigation. plus, bill karins is back with a check on the forecast including the potential for a nor'easter. (roger) being a good father

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welcome back. former trump advisor roger stone is pushing back on claims that he had prior knowledge of the 2016 wikileaks hacking of democratic e-mails. it comes amid reports that special counsel robert mueller is narrowing his scope on stone's alleged involvement and interviewing witnesses. stone's statement reads, i never received anything including allegedly hacked e-mails, the russians, wikileaks, assange or anyone else and never pass anything onto donald trump or the trump campaign. there is no witness who can testify otherwise and no evidence to the contrary. as the mueller investigation deepens, trump's former white house attorney has this to say about the ongoing probe and the president's skepticism. >> he calls it a witch hunt. do you think it's a witch hunt? >> i don't think it's a witch hunt. >> ty cobb went onto praise

mueller for his service, calling him an american hero and adding that he's respected the prosecutor's work for decades. let's get a check on your weather now with nbc meteorologist bill karins. you're tracking hurricane willa. it's a category 4 on the western side of mexico. >> not every day you get a major hurricane makine ining landfall. it's at 130 miles an hour winds. it was at 155 yesterday. we think it's going to make landfall likely as a category 3 north of puerto vallarta. as we go throughout the life of the storm, landfall will be this afternoon, then the rain will go through texas into wednesday. now let's talk about this storm coming through the northeast. it's diving down from canada. out ahead of it there is even some light snow showers in maine. here's the timing of it. keep in mind we've got game one of the world series taking place later on tonight.

here's the storm as we go throughout the day. the green and the yellow is rain. the blue is where it's going to be snow. during the day today, no problems. everyone is dealing with rain showers or light rain. 2:00 p.m. today, boston in the rain this afternoon. this evening there's 8:00, we're getting toward first pitch of the world series. the storm is actually overhead. some rain to the north and snow, then some rain showers on the backside. there's going to be some rain showers hit and miss in and around for the first pitch. i don't think it gets rained out, but it will be chilly, temperature about 48 degrees, on and off rain showers. you know, kind of what you'd expect for a late october world series baseball game at fenway. day two tomorrow is cold and blustery at 44 degrees. rain today in new orleans and also san antonio.

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win and looking to the future. >> good morning. >> good morning, lewis. we've heard netflix is looking to tap the markets for the second time this year. they're looking to raise another $2 billion to invest in the production of original programming as well as content acquisition. as you say, competition has been intensifying with disney set so launch their own streaming service next year, among others. so netflix plans to invest a total of $8 billion in new content with, so quite a big move from netflix. one of the interesting ripple effects of toys r us bankruptcy is that toymakers hasbro and mattel are finding it hard to

cope. hasbro announced they're going to have to the lay off 10% of their workforce. mattel will have to conduct layoffs. lewis. >> ford might not bed are his ready to relead its self-driving vehicles on to all of america's roadways next, but the company has announced which cities will be seeing them next. just a hint, it's in hallie jackson's backyard. >> yes. ford autonomous vehicle sess expanding their test and development program to include a few more cities, namely washington, d.c. this will make for the first company to begin testing autonomous vehicles in the capital. the company is keen to say they're not going to rush this process. theirer first priority is safety. so it may be some time before we see these hit the streets, but something to look forward to, for sure. >> this is what we need, lewis. morrow bought cars in

washington. >> just to add to everything going on there. >> lewis and juliana, thank you both very much. coming up, a look at this morning's one big thing. later on "morning joe," president trump betts on fears and falsehoods in this final stretch to the midterms. >> and the president paints a picture of an apocalyptic america if republicans lose control of congress. plus, former white house director of communications anthony scaramucci joins the conversation to talk about his new book to detail his memorable and brief stint in the trump administration. is not a video g. this is not a screensaver. this is the destruction of a cancer cell by the body's own immune system, thanks to medicine that didn't exist until now. and today can save your life. ♪

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you're tracking? >> the one big thing is republicans acting like they're losing. if you look at the kavanaugh jump, they're starting to change their behaviors in the way they spend money and showing they're expect to go lose the house. we're seeing that in races in virginia and nevada where the national is trying to poll back funding. the big thing you can tell they start attacking each other. president trump is on the campaign trail saying it won't be my fault. don't blame me. >> that's interesting, nick. let me toss you a question here from the big person's table in washington. you talk about how republicans are acting like they're losing. you talk about the blame game here. if republicans actually lose the house of representatives, who will voterses blame, do you think? >> i think the voters, who will they blame if they lose.? >>el with, who takes the blame if they lose? whose fault is it, essentially.? >> i think there will be plenty of blame to go around in the

entire party. republicans are telling us president trump has been too erratic on the campaign trail. republicans would like to talk about the tax bill. trump tells us they haven't gotten candidates in the right trump mold. if you're following trump, then you'll do well in the midterms and he thinks that's where that disconnect is. president trump says if he was on the ballot, this would be a cake walk for republicans. >> let's talk about how the math is shaping up for republicans. when you look at the big picture in some of the senate races and the house, how do you see the numbers? >> i think the senate is rel ofly safe for republicans. we're not looking at sort of a huge blue wave. a lot of the smart people we talk to say that will break down probably 25 to 35 so it could be a narrow majority for democrats. there's one republican who told us he hasn't seen people in

washington this much set on something until they thought hillary clinton would be president. so it doesn't count until the vote. >> let's talk about the add of the week from axios. this one, stars ben & jerry in support of democrats. what's up? >> i didn't bring a clip. we have a still of it. & jerry touting the add candidates giving them a bunch of clever names. i think it's passion and compassion and underwood for all the good. certainly kind of a -- there we go. compassion, compassion. this is a group that progress hes like. i don't know if you'll get any swing voters with ice cream names. >> and next time you're not allowed to come on set unless you bring some ben and jerry's ice cream, even if it is 5:00 in the morning. let me ask you this, what are you looking at in the days ahead? >> if you're following governor's races, don't forget

about those. the first and only debate will be airing tonight. cuomo has a pretty good lead on that, but debates are certainly moments where things can shift so i'll be tuning in. >> always a pleasure, my friend. >> thanks. >> that does it for us on this tuesday morning. i'm ayman mohyeldin. the democrat plan to destroy american health care includes free education and health care to illegal aliens. they want to be able to vote. the illegals -- by the way, i hate to tell you, you go to california and you go, they vote, anyway. they vote, anyway, and they're not supposed to. >> president trump laying the groundwork to call into question the legitimacy of the midterm elections. >> he's not even trying to hide his thoughts. >> no. per usual, the strong mistaken

are undocumented immigrants who he accuses of fraud even after his presidential commission found none. >> so he had a presidential commission that he put in force, going around with all their binders, and they found that it was all just a live. >> and yet he continues to lie. that lie, however, was just a drop in the bucket amid false claims of california rioting, an impending middle class tax cut and the approach of unknown middle easterners at the southern border. good morning, everyone. >> by the way, there are about 20 more of those. >> welcome to "morning joe." it's tuesday, october 23rd. along with joe, will hadly and me we have mike barnacle, jacqueline