canadians accept more both in terms of real numbers and as a percentage of their population than we do. >> he's creating a war like they did in the movie with dustin hoffman. >> this is the man, the president who has the security codes to our nuclear weapons, and it's scary. >> we're not going to let him use those. >> time well tell. my thanks to hans nichols for jumping on the air with us, aaron blake, karine jean-pierre, and rick stangal. >> i try to tell the truth when i can. i mean -- >> try to go to the gym, i try to eat salad. that's things you say about things you try and don't do. when my schedule permitted. >> dressing on the side, when i can. thank you, nicolle. if it's thursday, is the president's closing message opening the door for the democrats?

good evening. i'm chuck todd in washington. welcome to "mtp daily" and what you might call the chicken little presidency, which saw a fascinating and some democrats would argue, a fascinating split screen courtesy of oprah. was her message the antidote democrats have been looking for when it comes to this president's fear campaign. for his part, the president continues to amp up his rhetoric, much with violent undertones. he's telling the country the press is the enemy, democrats are a violent mob, and a caravan that's 900 miles is an imminent invasion. just moments ago at the white house, he reiterated that warning. >> some people call it an invasion. it's like an invasion. these are tough people in many cases. a lot of young men, strong men. and a lot of men that maybe we don't want in our country. but they have overrun the

mexican police, and they have overrun and hurt badly mexican soldiers. so this isn't an innocent group of people. >> the president also claimed that he plans to block immigrants from claiming asylum between legal ports of entry and plans to hold immigrants in detention until their asylum hearings. the president's comments come amid a series of what some might call a desperate and dangerous move to fire up his base. he released a pair of videos online. one painting democrats as complicit in a pair of murders carried out by an illegal immigrant. the other painting democrats as a militant mob. he's still giving voice to conspiracy theories about george soros and the migrant caravan, even after they were tied to the motives of a man carrying out the deadliest attacks on jews in american history. it's a closing message probably some republicans don't want, but it's what they have.

which brings us to a message democrats have. before the president spoke at the white house, all of news watched oprah urge folks to vote their conscience. >> i am an independent woman. i have earned the right to do exactly what i want to do. i am a registered independent. i paid for myself, and i approve this message. the reason i am a registered independent is because i believe that everybody should have the right to vote their values and vote your conscience regardless of the party. you get a vote and you get a vote and you get a vote. all right. spread the word. >> let's bring in tonight's panel. sahil kapur is a national political reporter.

danielle is an nbc news contributor, and howard fineman is an nbc news contributor. i'm still trying to figure out the president's speech today on immigration at the white house. he used a white house backdrop, which was to give it a little more urgency and i think try to make it more of an official capacity. but it was clear it seemed to be part of this sort of five or six-day crusade, whatever it takes to get immigration on the front page. >> designed to make it look somber and serious, to roll it out as if it's a serious policy proposal and it's a piece of everything else he's talked about, the caravan, trying to stoke fears about that, even though they're hundreds if not thousands of miles away. probably weeks from the border. he talked about ending birthright citizenship. this is the issue he wants to talk about. i think it's more about damage control, firing up supporters in the red areas that are going to save the senate. it doesn't work in the upscale areas to preserve the house.

>> what did you make of it? >> spot on. this is an issue he wants to be on the front pages, but honestly speaking, this caravan, it doesn't matter how far away it is. it could have been paid for, frankly, by donald trump. it is a gift to republicans. it's exactly the kind of thing that does make people angry. it does actually fire up his base. it isn't helpful. and so the points that he makes are very resonant, and i think the reality is we're going to see that on tuesday. >> it's the tone and language that i wonder, howard. with the other issues in the backdrop, right? the synagogue massacre, the pipe bombs. the suburban voter, right? the imagery he's painting. i understand the issue. i think you're right. the issue fires people up. is the imagery something that's going to impact some voters? >> i dont think donald trump expects the votes of a lot of suburban swing voters. i think donald trump's whole theory of politics and how he

got elected in 2016 in his mind, and probably in fact, undercuts that theory. and he's daring the democrats to win on that theory. that's exactly -- >> funny you say that. he's daring the country to pick a side. >> that's his politics, chuck. you know, we were taught, we grew up in the age of you go for the middle. we worship the swing voter. >> we did. >> as an entity in american politics. donald trump has an utterly different theory. and to that extent, the background of mayhem and murder doesn't necessarily play against him. if it turns up the temperature and gets the pot boiling even more, then he thinks it's fine. and the democrats he's challenging to operate on the same theory, you have said that people turn out because of anger not because of gratitude. well, we're going to see if the democrats and their supporters are angry enough, maybe because of some of the rhetoric you're

talking about, to turn out. trump's making that bet. >> trump is making -- he also wants his base angry for the very reason. anger gets you to the polls. >> in missouri, senator claire mccaskill gave an interview to fox news where she sounded pretty trumpy. she said she's 100% behind the president. this is someone who has voted against president trump in the past. in tennessee, phil bredesen has a new ad out talking about how he's a big proponent of border skurd. i talked to a lot of voters and the issue that comes up that they're worried about, security, security. not the fear of another 9/11. this issue has resonated with a lot of people. >> you remember frank luntz, the guy who was an expert at language on the republican side? when they define this as open borders, when the republicans say and trump says time after time, this is about the danger of open borders, once the issue is defined as open borders, the

democrats are sunk. >> that's his bet. that's trump's bet. >> he's just defining it -- >> most people don't. >> hang on a second. let's set aside trump's language, when i think we can all agree is intended to be inflammatory, intended to excite his base, not intended to reach across to the center, i totally agree with you on that. on the other hand, this is actually an issue that cuts across parties because americans do want borders that are defensible. they don't want mobs pushing across. america isn't an idea. america is a country ruled by laws. >> they're not open borders. okay. the borders are not open. >> right. >> that's a conceptual thing he wants. >> there's a conflation between illegal immigration and legal immigration. as for the abuse, perfectly fair. if people try to enter through illegitimate ports of entry, he

has every right to destain them under the law, but there's a bit of conflation that doesn't help the conversation. >> we're all debating the facts on this. he doesn't care about the facts. he's not trying to paint a factual picture. he's trying to paint a dark picture, to get people fired up. he's not interesting, this isn't about, oh, is it about asylum seeking or not. >> the worst possible way to analyze this is to say his words don't matter. donald trump knows exactly what he's doing rhetorically. he's got an instinct for it, and he's got advice from the steves, still, bannon and miller and others on how to do this. >> what was interesting to me today was sort of the different, if you will, closing message. democrats have been searching for that person who can sort of speak to a closing message. i would argue oprah did a better job than obama did. we put together a mash, basically oprah versus trump. and ipsome ways, they're both sort of, you know, zeitgeisty people who have interesting and unique following that actually

don't cross pollinate, but look at this mash. >> what you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening. >> i have earned the right to think for myself. >> vote republican. >> vote republican. >> vote for me. >> vote for myself. an historical election. >> not as important as 2016. >> this american carnage. >> this, which is the greatest country in the world. >> with a laughingstock of the world. >> the very foundation of our democracy is to think about other people. >> i alone can fix it. >> what is good for everybody is good for us. >> you get a vote, and you get a vote, and you get a vote. >> it's, you know, optimism versus pessimism, however you want to look at it. it was just an interesting contrast. >> good for oprah. i mean, i don't think i would

ever say those words, but seriously. i mean, you know, that is -- that is effective. the question is, is it effective on us who spend a lot of time listening to donald trump and don't like it as opposed to all the people out there who don't spend a lot of time listening to donald trump and therefore aren't as affected by it. >> it's that voter. that voter who knows they don't like it, and they tried to ignore it. what do they do? do they not vote? if they don't like the sort of tone and language. don't forget, there isn't -- donald trump will still be there the next day, which i think makes it a little easier for some uncomfortable republicans to either stay home or go across the aisle. >> he has seized the high ground of language. or to put it the other way, the low ground of language. >> i was going to say. >> he sees the initiative on language, let's put it that way. the one line that oprah uttered where she said we're all in this, words to the effect, we're all in it together, that's not donald trump's message.

but the democrats have not found a way, it seems to me, except through health care, which is key, to express that message. and to the extent that donald trump can use immigration and fears about it and the caravan and all that to specify fear of the other as opposed to we're all in this together, that's the framing that he wants. and has succeeded in getting. >> the biggest wild card in this election is whether those less frequent democratic voters will show up. the possibility of a president trump was not enough to show them up in 2016. will this motivate hispanic voters, african-american voters, voters under 40? if they do, democrats will do well. they mouth even hold on to the seats they have in the senate, possibly pick up one or two. if that happens, it's still a huge question. and i think that's why we hear oprah talking about it, president obama talks about this. the democratic leaders closing message is for the love of god, vote. >> oprah is not speaking for the democratic party here. the tone of the democrats is

not -- is the parallel of the tone of donald trump, maybe a little bit less, you know, less language, maybe a little less capable. but they're playing his game. >> that's what he wants. he wants the drama. >> he's very successful at it. >> you're right, you have krysten sinema trying not to, or phil bredesen, it's been interesting to watch that. one of the interesting things about this president is he'll say the quiet part out loud, you know, he'll say things, you're like, oh. he had bits of honesty in two different interviews. one about why he uses the phrase enemy of the people, and one about the issue of lying. first, the enemy of the people gambit. >> you say that word, enemy. enemy, literally tens of thousands of people go to a stadium to listen to you, and then people go on social media and they get themselves so jazzed up. there's got to be a party that's like, i'm scared that someone is going to take it too far. >> my only form of fighting back. i couldn't be here if i did that. >> you won. you have the presidency. >> but i did this before i won.

>> you have fervent supporters. they love you, they listen to you. enemy of the people. >> they like me more because of that. >> but what happens if someone gets shot, someone shoots one of these reporters. i don't think you think we're the enemy of the people, do you? >> i don't, but if you gave me false reporters, i would say that's not a good thing for the country. >> now, here's this back and forth about lying. take a listen. >> so you always are truthful? >> i do try. i think you try too. you say things about me that are not necessarily correct. i do try. and i always want to tell the truth when i can. i tell the truth. sometimes it turns out to be where something happens that's different or there's a change, but i always like to be truthful. >> like i said, it was the quiet part out loud. he sort of admitted, yeah, inenemy of the people, it's throwing a bone to my people. >> that may be one of the most untruthful statements he's ever made. he doesn't by nature want to

tell the truth. >> oh, you mean the lying. >> i have covered him. i know him some. i know people around him. he's a salesman who believes that anything goes when you're making the sale. if truth gets in the way, so what? as a matter of fact, truth is kind of for wimps. that's been true from the beginning. and when it serves his purposes to tell his version of the truth, if it has the effect of riling up his base, he will do it. otherwise, forget it. >> his former communications director, anthony scaramucci called the president an intentional liar. this is his former communications director. not for very long, but this is one of the reasons. he shouldn't have said that, but he said the president deliberately lies to provoke people, and the other reason is to discredit his critics. if you can discredit the press, anyone holding you accountable in the eyes of people, you can get away with anything. >> let's talk about the other

part. everybody likes to call donald trump a liar, and i get it. he certainly -- everybody feels comfortable calling donald trump a liar. >> i don't feel comfortable doing it either. >> maybe i can get the rest of my sentence out and then we can argue about lying. the more interesting part for me was the fighting back. because it goes directly to i think what is at the heart of donald trump's appeal. people felt during the obama administration like they were being told they were racists and sexist and deplorable and clingers. bitter clingers to their religion and their guns. and here was a guy who said, you know what. i'm going to fight back. that works very well for him. and he feels like he's doing it every day. >> does trump know he's intentionally misleading him, but as laungs as it makes us crazy, they love it. i had them admit that to me. it is one of the, i think, long term more frightening things i think we're going to realize as something that hurt us. you stick around. >> coming up, could the president's red meat rhetoric backfire in some of the key

midterm battlegrounds? somehow, republican nominees in nevada and arizona are happy that the president's not going to make it out west. we'll be right back. the updates you made to your plan strengthened your retirement score. so, that goal you've been saving for, you can do it. we can do this? we can do this. at fidelity, our online planning tools are clear and straightforward so you can plan for retirement while saving for the things you want to do today. nana, let's do this! aye aye, captain! ♪ and as you go through life -whoo! -♪ tryin' to reach your goal ♪but prevagen helps your brain with an ingredient originally discovered...

in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. "look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act."

california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein

considering the laws are so bad. they're not archaic. they're incompetent. it's not that they're old. they're just bad. and we can't get any democrat votes to change them. it's only the republicans that are in unison, they want to change them. they want to make strong

borders. want to get rid of any crime because of the borders of which there's a lot. and we have done a great job with the laws that we have. >> like i said, a rarity to see such a blatantly political speech delivered so close to an election using a formal white house backdrop like that. that was president trump just a few minutes ago. texas and nevada are two places where the president's red meat rhetoric on immigration could fire up two sides of these campaigns. and have a big impact on tuesday. let's get right to two people that are on the ground in both of those states. msnbc correspondent garrett haake is in texas, and editor of the nevada independent jon ralston is in las vegas. garrett, let me start with you. the whole issue of firing up latinos for the democratic coalition. we have seen more new numbers out that show that among latinos, essentially beto o'rourke has about a 25-point lead over ted cruz.

and it's been across the board, no matter different ways you cut it. it's all about how much of the texas electorate is hispanic. is the president's words having more of an impact in rural texas or more of an impact with latino voters? >> well, on these border communities, i don't think the president's words are going to do anyth i'm standing now, we're two miles from the u.s. border. this town is wholly integrated with its counterpart across the border in mexico. it's one economy, one culture. the same in el paso where beto o'rourke is from. that sort of ideology about immigration and the border and integrated cultures and economies pervades the way he talks about this issue. so among, for example, the million or so voters in the rio grande valley, the president's language is not going to do much for him. but we were in dallas earlier this week, among republican base voters, this language has been baked in now. you hear people talking about the caravan and they're worried about disease, and they're

worried about all the same things we have heard the president talk about. so among base voters in some of the bigger cities, base republican voters, it might have some effect, but in these communities, it's only going to re-enfor re-enforce, i think, the o'rourke democrat, message that says immigration as an issue doesn't require walls or the military. it requires a broader cultural solution. >> i guess what i'm asking is the key to o'rourke pulling off the subset is if somehow a surge of latino voters that texas democrats have never seen before, do they show up based on this last week of incendiary rhetoric or not? >> i don't know what this last week changes. if you're a latino voter in texas and you're not aware of the president's views on immigration, you're not really pay attention. i had a man tell me this morning his parents had come over from mexico and that he found the way the president started his campaign in 2015 to be so insulting, it was the first time that he became politically active. he said my parents weren't

rapists or criminals or drug abusers. that community here is, you know, already dialed up and activated, but it's traditionally not a community that votes. it's the single biggest challenge, the o'rourke campaign or any democrat would face in sort of chasing down this white whale of making texas a blue state is getting that latino electorate to actually come out and vote on these issues. if donald trump's rhetoric over the last year and a half or two years can't do it, i don't know what can. >> one state that has seen the latino vote get activated is nevada. jon ralston, does the president's new focus on this, does it just fire up both the rural vote in nevada and latinos help the culinary union even more, or is it going to have some sort of one-sided impact? >> you know, it's tough to tell, chuck. i can tell you this. the last midterm in 2014, latino turnout dropped off the face of the earth, and that killed the democrats here. but even though it killed them,

they still lost the main state-wide race, which was competitive, by only one point. there are signs that latino turnout is up above that. in the key congressional district, one that the republicans have targeted that is held by a democrat, latino turnout seems to be up. that race is almost over already in the early vote here, chuck. the democratic ballot advantage is so large there. >> which one, the third or fourth? >> that's the fourth district, as only you would know, chuck. that's an open seat because the incumbent is not running again because of a sexual misbehavior allegation. but that race, there's already a huge lead in ballots. it's a hispanic district. i'm told the culinary union is really hitting its marks. they're really out there, as you know, that union is half hispanic or more. and then, but you look at the polling here, chuck. and it does show that immigration, even though we're

not a border state, where garrett is, that immigration is the number one issue on the republican side. the republican ballot advantage in rural nevada in the early vote, which i should remind viewers, is going to be 60% or 70% of the entire vote. it's much more predictive than in a lot of states, they're building up large margins there, but they're not going to be able to make up for the ballot advantage in clark county, which is where vegas is and where all the votes are, essentially, two thirds. the top two races, the senate race is still close, but latino turnout is going to be up. >> very quickly for both of you. jon, i'll start with you. we're seeing this, we follow you closely in the early vote, and you seem to think democrats have the advantage, but polling continues to show heller looks stronger in polling than he does in the early vote. in the early vote results. what does that tell you? we just don't know how to poll nevada anymore? >> i don't think anyone has ever known how to poll nevada, chuck, except for a couple pollsters. all the polling i know about

shows this race continues to be within the margin of error. the big x factor here is what does election day look like? is it different than a normal midterm? will turnout be larger? can the democrats hold their own on election day? they think they can. the republicans need to do well on election day. >> and garrett, there was one new texas poll that indicated the race had dipped under four points, the ted cruz lead to beto o'rourke. what do the campaigns say about that poll? do they tick it with a grain of salt or say it matches? >> i think both campaigns see that with a grain of salt. the cruz campaign has consistently said they don't see this race anywhere as close to as competitive as the public polls have shown it. they have said they think they've got a bigger lead than what we have seen in the last two public polls. and chuck, the o'rourke campaign doesn't know. they take it as a great point of pride that they do not employ a pollster, so they don't have their own numbers here. they continue to point towards the early vote and say they're turning out huge numbers of people and that's what they're

watching down the stretch. >> all right. garrett haake, jon ralston, two races where immigration could have a big impact. thank you both. up ahead, the house battleground has expanded again in favor of the democrats. we'll break down the new numbers with the man who has those numbers. plus, who is this guy? john cool person, whos rr running for re-election to the house. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ eastbound and down. ♪ loaded up and truckin'. ♪ are we gonna do what they say can't be done? ♪ ♪ we've got a long way to go ♪ and a short time to get there. ♪ ♪ i'm eastbound, just watch ole bandit run. ♪ whatever party you've got goin' in the back, we've got the business up front. ♪

this is frank. sup! this is frank's favorite record. this is frank's dog. and this is frank's record shop. frank knowns northern soul, but how to set up a limited liability company... what's that mean? not so much. so he turned to his friends at legalzoom. yup! they hooked me up. we helped with his llc, contracts, and some other stuff that's part of running a business. so frank can focus on the beat. you hear that? this is frank's record shop. and this is where life meets legal. man: this is really about the country, about patriotism,

and about right and wrong. there is a reason that we're here tonight, all of us, and that there is a remedy. is it people in this room and across this country? please vote. vo: need to impeach is responsible for the content of this advertising. should happen everydred five hundred years, right? fact is, there have been twenty-six in the last decade.

allstate is adapting. with drones to assess home damage sooner. and if a flying object damages your car, you can snap a photo and get your claim processed in hours, not days. plus, allstate can pay your claim in minutes. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

welcome back. tonight, i'm possessed -- sorry, tonight, i'm obsessed with words that don't sound quite right. we here at "mtp daily" watch a lot of television, but we can't watch everything. there's too much. that's why we subscribe to a service that gives us computer generated transcripts. artificial intelligence at work. usually, it works great, but not always. the a.i. really seems to have a problem with names. specifically, candidate names in political ads. here's denver riggleman, republican candidate from virginia's fifth district, but on our automation, he's gamper wiggleman. meech xochitl torres small. but the tranzipt says she's social tourists mall. i guess all malls hope to have socialized tourists. there's more, how about john culberson? he turns into john cool person.

i think he probably likes that one. florida candidate ron desantis is ron two santas. not one santa. two santas. and then the democrat running in kansas's third district is charisse davids. also known as i'm sure it's davids. which i'm sure it isn't. the robots may eventually be coming for our jobs. but at least for now, this is still "mtp daily" with chuck todd, not emathy doily with chalk toad. watch me. ( ♪ ) mike: i've tried lots of things for my joint pain. now? watch me. ( ♪ ) joni: think i'd give up showing these guys how it's done? please. real people with active psoriatic arthritis are changing the way they fight it. they're moving forward with cosentyx. it's a different kind of targeted biologic. it's proven to help people find less joint pain and clearer skin.

don't use if you are allergic to cosentyx. before starting cosentyx you should be checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infections and lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms of an infection. or if you have received a vaccine, or plan to. if you have inflammatory bowel disease tell your doctor if symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reactions may occur. mitzi: with less joint pain, watch me. for less joint pain and clearer skin, ask your rheumatologist about cosentyx.

"look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein

welcome back. with only five days until left until election day, the house battleground keeps expanding for democrats. frankly, a lot of us going, wow, that race is close now, too. with the addition of 25 more races, we have a whopping 106 competitive races. and more vulnerable seats means a revised house outlook from our

friends at the cook political base. that's based off the drop in the president's approval rating and district polling they have been seeing. last month, the forecast was 25 to 35 seats. there's a five-seat shift to the democrats' direction, this could all change again before tuesday. that's how volatile things feel. meanwhile, the early vote total with less than a week before election day already exceeded the total nationwide early vote in the last midterm election. at this point, that's not surprising. every day now, we can tell you there's more voters than have showed up before in an early rote. joining me, jennifer duffy, and dave wassermann, cook political report's house editor. welcome to you both. dave, you're on satellite. i'll start with you and the expanded house projection. put a little more words into it for me, and explain why you keep adding seats. >> well, republicans entered october with a veritable pumpkin patch of vulnerable districts,

and that list has continued to expand. i'm in one of those seat in harrisburg, pennsylvania, where scott perry could fall victim to a redistricting map. there are three categories of republican seats in jeopardy. the first are the upscale suburban whole foods districts where republicans like barbara comstock in northern virginia, kaufman in colorado, kevin yoder in kansas city, continue to run behind. that hasn't gotten better. then the republicans who have no one but themselves to blame for their political problems. people like steve king and duncan hunter and chris collins under indictment, but the real bethwor bellwethers are these dicts where trump won by single districts. place like outer detroit suburbs michigan eight, virginia seven outside richmond, and right here in pennsylvania ten. >> jennifer, you focus on senate races and governors races for the cook political report. what is your projection now for the senate, and are you still in

like two directions? meaning it could be as much as a democratic gain of one or a republican gain of three. what is your range these days? >> i mean, i think that if you're going to do a nice bell curve, democrats plus one to republicans plus two. personally, i think we're looking at either a status quo or republicans plus one. >> that's a victory for democrats if that's the ultimate result. that would be a better democratic night if that's all they do, right? >> right, they have a terrible map, but they have a good environment. and you have some of the more purply states, like a nevada, that is not seeming to go in republicans' favor right now. >> i'm going to put the senate races in a couple categories. first, the swing state senate races which are, i would argue at this point, arizona, nevada, florida. democrats appear to be either even or slightly ahead in all of them. is that a fair -- of those three, which ones are you sort

of think are the republicans' best shot of either flipping or holding? >> yes, i think that's a fair assessment of all three. you know, their best shot at this point might be florida. >> interesting. >> right. i think that they're really struggling in nevada, and i think arizona is really a jump ball. >> then there are four red states that i like to put in category. right now, they seem to be democrats are behind in all four. missouri, tennessee, north dako dakota, texas. when you look at the map about whether they have a chance to get the majority, they have to win two of those four. right now, it looks like they could go 0 for 4. where are you on those four? missouri, tennessee, texas. tennessee/texas, we put in that, and the two incumbent democrats, claire mccaskill and heidi heitkamp. >> they'll be hard pressed to hold arizona and missouri. >> you expect one of those. >> i expect both of them to go. >> north dakota and missouri.

>> yes, north dakota and missouri. i expect democrats to lose both of those seats. tennessee and texas, you know, these are pretty red states. but i think there's a big possibility republicans could lose one. >> and at this point, would you rather be beto o'rourke or phil bredesen. >> beto o'rourke. >> very interesting coming from you guys. you have been very, very careful not to jump on the bandwagon everyone else has on beto. you think these numbers are real? >> yeah, i am. when you look at some of the early vote stuff and what they projected to be the number of early votes versus what it will be. >> right. >> it's pretty amazing. >> i want to talk about turnout on your side of the fence there, mr. wassermann. we have seen this higher turnout. you like to really dig into early vote. florida is probably the one place you have been able to look the most since that's the most revealing and there's so many house races on your list that you're looking at in florida. what does high turnout mean?

does it mean what we think it is, does it benefit the out party in almost all instances? >> actually, i don't think we can divine that much from the early voting data. what it shows is there's extraordinary historic interest in this midterm election, and that could mean a number of different things. what i keep coming back to is the fundamentals here. there are three big, big problems for republicans. the first is that trump's approval rating among women with college degrees is 27% in the most recent nbc/"wall street journal" poll. 70% disapprove. of course, 64% of men without college degrees approve of trump, so we don't just have a gender gap, but a gender canyon, but the problem for republicans are the people most likely to vote in a midterm, women with college degrees. we also have a record number of republican retirements. if they flip 12, that would be more than what they need for majority. and we're seeing bonkers democratic fund-raising.

the democrat raised more money, that's almost half of republican seats in the house. and so that has the potential to create some election night surprises. >> speaking of money, there is a money problem on the republican side in senate races, too, and one place where they're missing an opportunity, i'm hearing complaints from republican consultants all over. minnesota. last minute the they're throwing money into it. i'm hearing if republicans had money, this would be a race, but they admit, they forgot it. >> you know, i think that there's a lot of woulda coulda at this point. republicans are not going to have a great year in minnesota generally. you know, they're going to take a big hit in the governor's race. i think that makes senate races harder. tina smith, who is the appointed democratic senator, this is a special election. >> the al franken seat. >> right. she hasn't been there long. less than a year. and so you know, she is underperforming, certainly, right now. >> republican ken housley, a

very good candidate. >> she is a good candidate, but i don't think it's there. i think that the spending is all about 2020, because she's got to face voters again. and a weak showing would just earn her a more competitive race in two years during a presidential cycle. >> very interesting here. jennifer duffy, david wassermann, we'll see you both a lot over the next 96 hours. thank you very much. up ahead, how a trickle down effect could give democrats yet another leg up in their battle to win the house on election night. we'll break down those numbers at the big board next. tremfya® is for adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. with tremfya®, you can get clearer. and stay clearer. in fact, most patients who saw 90% clearer skin at 28 weeks stayed clearer through 48 weeks. tremfya® works better than humira® at providing clearer skin, and more patients were symptom free with tremfya®. tremfya® may lower your ability to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections. before treatment, your doctor should check you

for infections and tuberculoorfn infection or have symptoms such as: fever, sweats, chills, muscle aches or cough. to or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options.

we are back. time for our meet the midterms sgment at the big board, and it's the trickle down effect from a handful of governors races i'm watch on tuesday night. obviously, florida and georgia are the races everybody is watching for national -- for a national look at what's happening around the country, but there's a bunch of governors races we haven't talked about because they're blowouts but there's a reason you should be thinking about them. let me show you. five of these races where democrats are going to win, perhaps all of them by double digits. michigan, they're going to elect a new governor, likely a democrat. illinois, same thing. double digits. california, double digits. pennsylvania, new york, both with incumbent democrats who are up by double digits. guess what. that's going to have a down ballot effect. let me show you something here. 32 republican held seats are in

those five states that are on the vulnerable list. 32 of them. what does that mean? look, there's nine alone in california. gavin newsom is going to win by double digits. how many of those nine are going to have a trickle down effect for the democrats? you look at il, there's four. michigan, there's five. pennsylvania has seven. new york has seven. and there's even one senate race that falls into this category, the virginia senate race. tim kaine has a massive lead over republican corey stewart. four republican held districts in that state could flip. what is that trickle down effect? the point is this, one of the reasons why democrats are heavily favored to win the house is this, the fact that top of the ticket republicans are struggling and that trickle down effect perhaps on turnout. a lot to go into election day. we'll look at all angles of it. we have more of it coming up with the panel. we'll be right back. gimme two minutes. and i'll tell you some important things

to know about medicare. first, it doesn't pay for everything. say this pizza... is your part b medical expenses. this much - about 80 percent... medicare will pay for. what's left... this slice here... well... you have to pay for that. and that's where an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company comes in. this type of plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. and these are the only plans to carry the aarp endorsement. that's because they meet their high standards of quality and service. review aarp medicare supplement plans and their rates in this free decision guide. call united healthcare insurance company or go online. visit aarpmedicaresupplement.com to request yours. even apply online... any time. oh. speaking of time... about a little over half way and there's more to tell. like, how... with this type of plan, you'll have the freedom to choose any doctor

who accepts medicare patients. great for staying with the one you know... or finding... somebody new, like a specialist. there are no networks and no referrals needed. none. and when you travel, your plan will go with you anywhere in the country. so, if you're in another state visiting the grandkids, stay awhile...enjoy... and know that you'll still be able to see any doctor who accepts medicare patients. learn more with this free decision guide. call or go online to request yours. tick, tick, tick, time for a wrap up. a medicare supplement plan helps pay some of what medicare doesn't. you know, the pizza slice. it allows you to choose any doctor, who accepts medicare patients... and these are the only plans of their kind endorsed by aarp. whew! call or go online and find out more.

wow. everybody voted already? no kidding. let me see it again. who voted? kidding! let me see, who voted? [ cheers and applause ] then what the -- am i doing here tonight? good-bye. >> time now for the lid. panel is back. sa hill, danielle, howard. i love that quote because just before -- he was in ft. myers yesterday. the one county that maxed out on votes. the one place you didn't need to send him, may tell you why he went there. trying to hide him. the senate race, democrats have a little momentum, da-da-da-da-da, except one place, the state of new jersey, sa hill. the philly enquirer, it says reluctantly, we endorse senator menendez for new jersey senate.

not being menendez is isn't enough to support hugin. this one from the new york star ledger. choke it down and vote for menendez. our hope is voters remember trump is on the ballot. he's no gem, but he's better than hugin. they hit him for his days working for the pharmaceutical industry. >> with endorsements like that, who needs opposition? >> i know. >> it's extraordinary that democrats have any shot at face planting and losing the new jersey senate seat. it should be an absolute gift. one of the ways this is backfiring on them a little bit is democrats want to make this election in part a referendum on trump and corruption. corruption does not play well for their candidate in new jersey. >> that's new jersey, though, corruption usually plays well in that state. i don't mean to be that sarcastic. >> look -- >> i'm only echoing what viewers are saying now. it's new jersey. what does that matter? >> i have to say i'm rarely on

one early, but i've been on this one a long time for the reason that you're saying. the business about corruption in high places among elites and so on, that narrative plays right into bob menendez in all the wrong ways for menendez. as far as hugin is concerned, the fact that he is a corporate guy with pharmaceuticals, they do love pharmaceuticals in new jersey. >> big industry. >> it's a huge industry. he's not a trumpster. he is the kind of republican that democrats in new jersey have historically tolerated, you know. maybe they choke it down, however you want to put it, but they do from time to time, you know. there's a long history of republicans like that winning these kinds of races. and it's been clear for a long time to people in new jersey that menendez has been a weak candidate. >> i have to say, danny, the thing that bogled my mind this year why no democrat primaried menendez. i don't get it because it was probably a winnable primary. >> it probably was, but he had

just beaten back this justice department lawsuit against him. you know, the irony -- >> it was a hung -- they could bring charges again actually. >> they absolutely could. of course he only has himself to thank for committing the alleged crimes as well. but the irony here will be that it was the obama justice department that went after him. probably not, by the way, because of corruption, but because he was opposing them tooth and nail on signing the iran deal. >> that is an interesting conspiracy theory on your part. >> i believe it completely. >> despite all the problems he is still favored. >> lucy and the football. >> he's going to be a beneficiary of the reverse trickle-down effect. >> with the reason dsc went in, in those races where democrats are doing well, menendez is under performing those democrats. i want to go to a little scoop you had yesterday. ted cruz giving a consolation -- kind of phone call to steve king after essentially the head of

the nrcc said we're out of here, you're on your own. >> steve king said they called him. >> this is king making -- not something ted cruz necessarily wanted out there. >> well, i called the cruz campaign and they confirmed that the call did happen. they told me it was a personal call. the two have been friends for a while. king was the co-chair of ted cruz's 2016 presidential campaign. but this was before i think king, a lot of these things about king have come out and his own party leaders, nrcc chair, abandoned him for white nationalist -- >> a personal call or call of support? >> a personal call. what happened was cruz was asked about king and his inflammatory comments in texas. it sounded like he called him. king described it to me as this was a call of support, but cruz did say publicly that he's disappointed in king's comments without necessarily renouncing him. so, it wasn't a condemnation call and -- as far as i know, it

wasn't necessarily endorsing for reelection. >> danny, i know you wanted to jump in on king. if he wins, he's going to feel bullet proof in the house. just think about that. thank you all. up ahead, an up or down vote. take your razor, yup. alright, up and down, never side to side, shaquem. you got it? come on, get back. quem, you a second behind your brother, stay focused. can't nobody beat you, can't nobody beat you. hard work baby, it gonna pay off. you got this. with the one hundred and forty-first pick, the seattle seahawks select. alright, you got it, shaquem. alright, let me see.

yeah, i've had some prettyeer. prestigious jobs over the years. news producer, executive transport manager, and a beverage distribution supervisor. now i'm a director at a security software firm. wow, you've been at it a long time. thing is, i like working. what if my retirement plan is i don't want to retire?

then let's not create a retirement plan. let's create a plan for what's next. i like that. get a plan that's right for you. td ameritrade. ♪ i am a techie dad.n. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience.

my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. well, in case you missed it, did you catch my obsession during our show yesterday? >> once again, it's october 31st, halloween. and once again, people are

losing their minds. over candy corn. and this year, of course, it's getting political. look at how it tapers at the top, to the eliteest 1%. by the way, are we sure it's the top? if it's candy corn, wouldn't the part that looks like corn, the yellow, be the top? well, as expected, the twitter verse went berserk. there were thoughtful arguments on both sides. a photo that's gone viral really sealed the deal for me. several viewers sent me this picture. candy corn arranged in a cob. i have to say it's hard to argue with that, but that's not all. here's the logo of the corn refiners association. big corn, if you will. the blunt end up. you need more proof? here's a kernel diagram from the national education policy center at u.c. boulder. blunt and up. we're pro blunt around here. therefore, let me just say to all the pointy-end-up people, it's time to admit there is a better way. by the power vest ed in me and nobody, i declare candy corn,

this end up, john reese. now it's time for us to come together and heal as a nation and tackle the other great issues of our time. we can come together and agree like, is a hot dog a sandwich? which, of course, it is. obviously. meat between two pieces of bread? all right. that's all for tonight. more tomorrow with "mtp daily". the beat with ari melber. >> one candy corn item. i never knew i would do this. when i was growing up watching you report the news, watching you do the political segments, but i got to tag you today in a food tweet with a picture of the candy corn that i eat in november just like i eat in every other month, and i tag you, chuck todd, as a tribute, not picking a candy corn polarized fight. >> you're not atting me, like at me. >> i just tag you like, hey, buddy, look at me eating candy corn in november. >> you eat candy corn in november? you love it, don't you?