that does it for me. i'll see you back here tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. eastern, or monday at 6:00 p.m. the usual time. "hardball" with chris matthews is up next. mark your ballots. let's play "hardball." ♪ >> good evening. i'm chris matthews from washington. the closing arguments in the run up to tuesday's elections have created a split screen. democrats, aided by the star power of surrogates like former president obama and oprah winfrey are concluding with a message of hope and calls for civility. at the same time, president trump is the commander in chief fueling anger and resentment to turn out his base. as "the new york times" puts it, the president has fully embraced a dark anti-immigrant message in the hope that stoking fear will motive voters to reject

democrats. well, taking the fight back to him former president obama today accused trump of manufacturing a crisis at the border, asking voters to reject what he calls the politics of fear. >> we have seen repeated attempts to divide us with rhetoric designed to make us angry and make us fearful. now in 2018 they're telling you the existential threat to america is a bunch of poor refugees a thousand miles away. they're even taking our brave troops away from their families for a political stunt. at the border. >> when words stop meaning anything, when truth doesn't matter, when people can just lie with abandon, democracy can't work. the only check on that behavior is you.

[ cheering ] the only check on that behavior is you and your vote. >> well, politico is reporting that some republicans as well are distressed by trump's anti-immigrant rallying cry, believing it could backfire when they're candidates. according to republican campaign official, trump is solidifying swing voters who were already leaning democratic and are now definitely going to vote for democratic candidates, yet this president seems intent on fanning the flames of division no matter what the consequence. we've already seen in a politically and racially motivated violence of last week that the forces of hate are emboldened in this country. but rather that heal the provisions that might provoke similar violence, this president instead blames the media. >> say you're encouraging violence. >> no, no, you know what? you're creating violence by your question. you are creating, you. and also, a lot of the reporters are creating violence by not

writing the truth. the fake news is creating violence. and you know what in the people that support trump and the people that support us, which is a lot of people, most people, many people, those people know when a story is true and they know when a story is false. and i tell you what, if the media would write correctly and write fairly, you'd have a lot less violence in the country. >> joining me right now is heidi przybilla, a national correspondent for nbc news, donna brazile, former chairwoman of the dnc and the former chairman of the rnc. i want to start with donna. this is really the battle of the bugles, or the battle of the tubas. the president wants fear to work. it's worked for him. it's got him the job. and democrats are bringing back the nice voices of oprah winfrey, hopefully uplifting, and barack obama has always been

uplifting. who the wins? >> i think hope and change, hope and civility. democrats are riding on a wave of hope. they believe that they cannot only galvanize democratic voter, but bring independents who might be leaning toward democratic candidates over the threshold by being positive, by talking about health care, by talking about education. they want to avoid this politics of fear because they believe it's cross sieve, that the american people are tired of it, and they are confident that they can get their voters out with a real positive hopeful message about the future. and when has that worked before? just compare history. >> 2006 it worked in that midterm. if you go back to 1998 when bill clinton was being impeached, it worked then because folks -- people decided not to focus on the top of the ticket, but go down to the bottom and reach people where they live. i think it will work just fine. >> why did fear work in '16? because it did. >> fear worked because there are many people echoing that fear. we had the democratic party faced a huge onslaught of

weaponized e-mails from the russians. we couldn't get our message out. we know in 2016 we had a hard time reaching people. but this time democrats are not knocking on doors that have probably not been knocked in four year. >> my own theerks people who voted against the establishment in '16, this time they're going to vote against trump. what do you think? >> i think there is no question that democrats have to do this. they're going to pull out their heavyweights. you look at these hugely consequential races in georgia and florida. you bring in oprah, you are speaking to those minorities you. are speaking to those liberal white women. the polling, internal polling shows they've actually been depressed, all of this negativity has actually depressing them. so they need something positive. but the same time, i was in southern virginia just yesterday, and i think that you are also right about the president's message pushing some of these swing republicans, some of these moderate republican voters. i talked to a panel of these

moderate republican voters. they all voted republican most of their lives. now they're voting for the democrat because they say we need a check on trump. they didn't even actually know much about the democratic candidate. they just knew that we needed a check on trump. now that said, we've had such massive vote increase in voter registration? it's just hard to tell which way is going to break. the pollsters i talk to say our models are all based on previous voting behavior. so it's hard to tell. it's going to come down to the wire. >> mike, it's so interesting. if you look at commercial power in the country where the money, beer commercials are always mixed. it's always a bunch of guys hanging at a bar, white and black. in fact, that's the way they sell beer. now it used to be only white guys. when i look at that thing in florida, i get very emotional about politics. there is bill nelson, probably in there for his last election. and an african american mayor of tallahassee. this is pretty striking. his coattails, the white guy -- i don't want to get too ethnic

about this, but it's fascinating to watch this thing go on down here. >> but chris, you should because that is at the rub of the whole thing. the white power structure such as it is shifting. it's changing. it is becoming more diverse. it is looking more and more like andrew gillum and -- >> like beer commercial. >> like a beer commercial than the old established order, which is what donald trump is harkening become to. republicans still cling on to that. i ran into this when i was at the rnc, we went to harlem. why would you go to harlem? well, that's where the votes are. that's where the votes of the party. but there are people who still hold on to this idea that particularly white male vote which is an angry vote, a scared vote, afraid of the future in many rchts, trump speaks to that in an authentic way. >> apparently it is authentic. and here is the awful point. maybe it is authentic. in an explosive report in "vanity fair" coming out today, former trump lawyer -- now you got to be careful about this guy. he's got an attitude now.

he is speaking out about the kind of language he says, he says trump has used in private. cohen now has an interest in bringing down trump. i want to emphasize that. he says that in light of the president's recent rhetoric, quote, he wanted to offer potential voters what he believed was evidence of trump's character. cohen says that in speaking to trump about the crowd at one of his campaign rallies, quote, i told trump that the rally looked vanilla on television. trump said that's because black people are too stupid to vote for me. on another occasion said trump said to me, name one country run by a black person that is not run by an s-hole and then name one city. speaking of african american contestants on "the apprentice," cohen says that trump said there is no way i'd let this black expletive win. in other words, it's rigged. a source inside the trump administration told nbc news cohen's allegations were moralized from a serial liar. okay, fine. heidi, you're the straight

reporter here how. do you unpack this stuff? i think there's something there, but then again, i know if it comes from cohen it probably smells in terms of interest. his interest now is bringing down trump. >> it's not going to change any minds, but for those people who are already believe that the president actually thinks like this and talks like this. >> the white guy who has that attitude says he's one of us. if you want to be blunt about it. you said genuine. michael? >> that's right. >> donna, does this matter at this point? because there no surprise in this package. >> look, whether it's the central park five, the fact that his family was investigated for housing discrimination, or comments he's made just in recent days calling himself a nationalist, the president has shown so much incivility, so much intolerance that try to ignore that and focus on the fact that we have to talk to young people. they don't want the hear this anyway. we have to talk to them about issues that matter to them. >> he is polling 58% in african

american community. >> and i haven't figured out who those people. >> it's pretty low statistically. >> it's a low statistic, but remember, that probably is more slanted towards african american men than women, because african american women have made it very clear going back to the summer where they stand when it comes to trump and republicans, which is a big problem i think going into tuesday is an undercounted vote. it is not fully appreciated the impact it can have in swing districts around the country. that's vote to watch on tuesday night mostly sun for my estimation, i hope. i'm going to be a little sarcastic now. you got time to wait in a starbucks line you got time to wait to vote. >> absolutely. >> young people, i know they're busy with classes ten hours a week. i know it's overwhelming. i'm just kidding. you can find a couple of minutes to vote. i don't know why you don't want to vote. this rally last night, were you going the say something? >> that's what the early voting

is telling us. we know older people tend to cast their ballots early anyway. but we're seeing some signs here that we should be alarmed. and just like every previous election, that the millennials are going to disappoint. >> the rally last night, at a rally trump bemoaned those recent acts of hate. starting with the bombs that went to people, mostly on the democratic side, the media side, on the liberal side if you will. but also, the two african american guys gunned down by white guy. and then of course what happened at that synagogue a week ago, because of that fear. but because they heard. trump out there now saying the problem with those horrors is not that they're horrible, but they distracted from his message about the caravan. let's watch. >> i will tell you we have gotten tremendous numbers, tremendous numbers of republicans are going out to vote. now, we did have two maniacs stop a momentum that was incredible because for seven days, nobody talked about the

elections. it stopped the tremendous momentum. more importantly, we have to cake care of our people. and we don't care about momentum when it comes to a disgrace like just happened to our country. but it did, nevertheless, stop a certain momentum. and now the momentum is pick up. >> michael, he cease it -- he didn't even mention the african american shootings by that white guy. >> of course not. >> but he mentioned the other synagogue and the media and the bomb thing, and he sees it as a flaw in his strategy. really. >> it's stopped his momentum. >> he goes on and i don't want to talk about momentum and then goes on to talk about momentum. it tells you at the core where this president is. the circle is very small there is only one person in that circle, and that's him. at the end of the day, the impact is how does it impact me, how does it impact everything i'm trying to do. and the president looks at the election through that prism. >> can i just say something really quick? the fact that obama said this was manufactured, he is factually correct about that, because let's just -- "the new

york times" had a tick-tock on how this all started. it started on fox news. the president saw it. within 30 minutes, he started tweeting about the caravan. within a week it was crisis and we're sending troops to the border. >> who came up with that word in the old days? timbuktu. anyway, responding to obama's rebuke today, president trump attacked obama at a rally in west virginia. let's watch. >> i heard president obama speak today. i had to listen. i was in the plane. i had nothing else to do. and i heard him talk about telling the truth. he was talking about you have to tell the truth, and yet 28 times he said you can keep your doctor if you like your doctor. you can keep your plan, if you like your plan. they were all lies. then i heard him talk about the freedom of the press. we have to maintain the press. we have to love those people, except that nobody was worse to the press than obama, nobody. in fact, he even used, as i

remember, the justice department to go after reporters. remember? remember? but he's talking about how i should be nice to the fake news. no thank you. >> okay. here's a thought. trump is running now. i just saw it in david brooks' column today exactly where he was among white men, exactly where he was with all men. his numbers are exactly where they were, 54 and 38, all men 38. so he has gotten hotter and crazier and angrier and more stoking of the violence in this country. to keep his current level for another six years, he has to got hotter and hotter and hotter. >> he is not expanding the electorate. he is not building a coalition. >> but he is getting hotter. >> and he is going to get even hotter over the next 72 hours because he is trying to keep people pumped up. look, what the president said last night, that was just amazing. people are still burying their dead. they're grieving in pittsburgh. they're grieving in kentucky. and yet this president shows no

empathy. his strategy is to keep his base fired up. and the hell with the rest of us. >> he didn't mention those two african american guys getting killed. >> no. >> you're chairman of this thing called u.s. vote foundation you all helped to launch, an initiative to turn out young. tell us how. >> we've got a great psa that is the big deal 2018.com. go check it out. this is the deal. the promise from parents and family members is, look, we won't mess with your social media if you go and show us you voted. all we're asking the young voters on election take a picture of yourself voting, whether you've got the i just voted sticker on, or you're going into the poll. and the deal you make with your relatives is they won't interfere with your social media. no more checking in on your instagram, no more checking on your tweets. >> great. >> it's a fun way to look at the election. but bottom line, chris, what you've been talking about and donna, that you've been talking about and you've been reporting on, young vorkts you've got get

off your behind and go vote. if you want the information go, to u.s.votefoundation.org. you can figure out where to vote, how to vote. and check out the psa at the big deal 2018.com. >> i agree with michael. >> in the pleasure principle, it's fun to vote. it really is. go do it. it works. it's simple. have you do it, that was fun. that was cool. it's not painful. it is fun. you're going to feel like a man or a woman, whatever you want to feel like. you're going to feel good. >> heidi przybilla, donna brazile, michael steele, you guys are great. everybody is here tonight. coming up, everybody we know about tuesday's critical contest. where do things stand in the fight for the house? the senate? very different stories. and what about the governorships? these big state governorships look like they're going d, and the momentum looking very clearly democrat. and speaking of a fight for the house, what would a republican victory mean? we're going to go the other way and scare the heck out of people that haven't voted yet. we're going to show you what happens if the republicans hold

the house. an embolden party under trump could go after obamacare, make adjustments to social security, medicare, in other words, cut them, and kill the mueller probe all together. plus, according to "the washington post," the president told 1100 lies in october alone. that's 1100. what does that say about his closing message to voters the next couple days? finally, let me finish tonight with the three reasons democrats should have a little faith going into tuesday, a little faith. it's good to score some korda. this is "hardball," where the action is. over 260 years later, with a little resourcefulness, ingenuity, and grit, we're not only capturing energy from the sun and wind, we're storing it. as the nation's leader in energy storage, we're ensuring americans have the energy they need, whenever they need it. this is our era. this is america's energy era. nextera energy.

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welcome back to "hardball." next tuesday's election could significantly impact the balance of power in washington, and in state hour, governorships all around the country. evidence already suggests voters are engaged at historic levels. lots of early voting. according to the nbc data analytics lab, using voter data provided by target smart, nearly

30 million voters have already voted. 30 million. that number exceeds the total early in the 2014 midterm by 18. the total amount has already been beaten by eight million. in the past week the president's approval rating has dropped four. in a recent poll it showed that 50% of likely voters prefer democrats to control the house of representatives versus 41%, about nine point spread which should be enough, even with all the gerrymandering to give to it the democrats. for more i'm joined by david wasserman, the house editor who covers the house, and kapur. looking at women voting without getting to in trouble here, the complexity of hillary clinton with a lot of voters. that's not there right there. the things that happened to her with comey at the end, the

people's feelings about her, that's not in the way. it's really about trump now. it's nott about whether you like the democrats or not. it's about trump. your thoughts. >> yeah, that's our range too. 30 to 40 seats at the moment there are three reasons why democrats are the clear favorites to take the house majority. it's not a done deal yet. but women, open seats and money. women with college degrees give trump a 27% approval rating in the latest poll. republicans have 41 open seats. that's a record going back over the country. well think democrats are the favorites to claim 12 of those 41 which would be halfway to the 23 they need for the majority, and then fundraising there are 112 republican incumbents who -- or republican-held seats, including 93 incumbents who are outraised by a democrat in the last fundraising quarter which is just unprecedented. and that could create some election night surprise. >> what are the win conditions? are there any wind conditions? or are we in a calm right now?

is the move over the weekend likely to be pro democratic or not? >> republicans feel pretty good about closing the enthusiasm gap, but the democrats i talk to and republican pollsters agree that independents are the biggest problem for republicans now. the check and balance voter. and fundamentally, we're looking at three big buckets of house races. the upscale surgeon republican districts, what i would call whole foods districts where barbara comstock has been trailing, very likely to lose, for example. then we're also looking at these trump districts that voted for trump by at least ten points or more. republicans have clawed their way back a little bit in place likes down state illinois, the i range of minnesota, upstate new york. the districts we've seen move most in the last couple of weeks are the middle class suburbs, places like suburban detroit, the suburbs of richmond, virginia, and des moines, iowa, where democrats have these house seat opportunities in districts trump won by single digits. and those are looking better for democrats. >> i'm with you, sir.

david, i really think you only get one vote, and it's all about trump. i think a lot of women evolved culturally evolved men are going to vote against trump and his behavior. the cook political report has updated its senate rate ratings. there are currently nine toss-up, four held nine held by republicans and four by republicans. i've been saying that republicans are probably pick up couple senate seats. your thoughts. >> it seems likely. >> because of the red state advantage. >> right. the map for democrats is about as any map a party has had in a very, very long time, maybe in history. the three states i'm looking at right now are north dakota, tennessee, and texas. those have broken in favor of republicans in recent weeks. >> people are coming home. >> people are coming home. if republicans can hold on there, democrats have no path to the senate majority. the single biggest question of the midterms may be whether trump's brand of splax net wpol

net winner or a net loser. in previous elections like the pennsylvania house special, that turned out to be the opposite. it ended up mobilizing more democrat voters. that materialize and potentially save democrats in some solve these. >> let's talk about personalities. everybody is good at numbers these day, but personality. somebody like tester with a crew cut who really look likes a guy on a tractor, who doesn't look like a liberal lefty. he look likes a westerner or cowboy you. get somebody like manchin who seems to do tv all the time. people sort of know him. how much will personal personality and cut of their jib going to affect this election and how much will we sweep of the pattern voting? >> these are popular incumbents in small states, in rule states. they know their states very well. they've won elections against all odds in the past. i think personality has something to do with it. joe manchin has this ad where he is shooting, he takes a gun, he is shooting a copy of the lawsuit that morrissey has signed that would wipe out the

aca, the health care issue that has worked out very well for them. so i think it's a combination of ideological issues set that they're triangulating and personnel. >> same to you, david. when it comes to people like comstock in virginia, very strong personalities. you're laughing, but she really does have a strong personality. >> she used to be one of the republicans' top dirt diggers. the thing about republicans in the moderate seats, we would lump them into one group of thinking of them as moderate, but some of them really have only changed their posture recently. and the ones who are likeliest to survive, the brian fitzpatricks in suburban philly, for example, and will heard in texas, they've been the ones who have been most willing to take on the president before the he took office. >> so i'm thinking philly, you count on second and third, two and three in philly. that's always by 80%, 85% democrat. and then i'm thinking, let's see, i'm thinking four, five, six, seven, all going democrat. what do you think? >> you know what, chris?

i was just in harrisburg actually the last couple of days. the people on the ground that i spoke with there, including a lot of republicans are nervous about how the new redistricting map in that state could cost them seats, including in central pennsylvania, a place that hasn't been competitive in years where scott perry, a republican freedom caucus member. >> i'll pick that too, and i'll pick 16 over kelly up there. i think that democrats could sweep pennsylvania. the only one i'm worried about or wondering about is the one you mentioned, fitzpatrick, who inherited the seat from his brother, and he is no friend of trump's. thank you. love to have the expertise on the show. sahil cap puka kapur, you don'te us a lot of numbers. you know stuff. >> i know dave wasserman. >> you know dave wasserman. thank you. it's looking more like democrats may gain control of the house on tuesday, but if republicans hang on, what do you have to fear? what could be the worst case scenario? it looks like the mueller investigation will be in

trouble. obamacare will be in trouble. should solve will medicare, medicaid and social security. maybe this is to goose people into voting, but we're going to tell you what to really fear if republicans hang on, keep the house. worst case scenario. "hardball" coming back where the action. (vo) this is not a video game.

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bounty picks up messes quicker and is two times more absorbent than the leading ordinary brand. (boy) hey look, i got it. bounty, the quicker picker upper. welcome back to "hardball." well, democrats are fighting to take back the majority in the house. i think they'll get it. but what will it mean if republicans hold on to the

house? what would the agenda look like for an emboldened, because they'd be emboldened if they won republican party. according to "the new york times," house republicans have deferred the messy work of planning a legislative agenda at this point. but if they were to win on tuesday, republicans would claim a conservative mandate to cut taxes, chip away at the affordable care act and shrink federal spending. something else that could land on their agenda is special counsel robert mueller's ongoing investigation into russia's 2016 election interference. i'm joined by shona thomas for vice news and sam stein, politics editor for the daily beast. shona, what do you think they would do if think kept clinging to power? >> i think the tax cut thing is what they would want to do is make the tax cuts from the middle class term. it had a ten-year sunset period. and one of the things they kept saying -- you okay? to make the math work. >> yeah, excuse me.

>> basically run the indicate the amount of time that tax cut was available. and later on they'd make it permanent. so i think they may try to do that a little earlier than anyone thought. >> but why would they do that? mitch mcconnell is out there talking about deficits all of the sudden. after a trillion dollar tax cut for rich and corporation, he says whoops, we've got a deficit problem, almost a trillion dollars a year. >> deficits don't really matter to them, unless it uses a cudgel to go after democrats when they're in power or as an opportunity to attack entitlements. >> and it gives them another opportunity -- >> do you say they lie? >> yes. they do care about their deficits. evidence shows when they are in power and they have the spending purse strings, deficits do not matter to them. it happened during the bush years. it happened dur about the trump years. when obama was in power, deficit hawkery was the name of the game. and now suddenly they don't care. >> and also, the idea that they may try to go after social

security, like change how that works, the idea that overall they would be able to get it together to change medicare. >> there is all skiends of games they can play. >> there are. but the idea they're going to do that two years before a presidential election. >> okay, let me suggest something to take a little of the scare out of this. the average democratic congress person or senator from the rust belt, they don't like to hear the phrase, okay, the upper midwest industrial states that. >> know the average democratic vote or republican basically want social security, medicare and medicaid for alzheimer's basically for long-term care and have a job so their kids will stick around. trump always says i talk jobs, but he never talks cutting these social programs, ever. >> that is why i find it very implausible that should the republican party maintain control of the house and the senate, that they would even go after social security. maybe they might tinker with medicare in terms of means testing, more programs, but social security has been such a

bedrock promise from trump, something that he has smartly run on to your point in the meth and something he knows he would be incredibly vulnerable on if he were to touch. >> his vote. he is not stupid. >> trump is not stupid politically. he is l not risk that. >> they're not going to have a house in florida probably. they're not going to barbados, maybe for a week or two. but they basically age in place and they have a need for these programs. there is george wil who sat here the other night says the american voters are conservative. they want to conserve the new deal. >> yes. >> and the great society. we've been talk about now the u.s. deficit has ballooned under republican control the last two years. one way senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has suggested to get it under control is cutting social security, medicare, and medicaid. >> it's very disturbing, and it's driven by the three big entitlement programs that are very popular, medicare, social security and medicaid. >> why would he do that on an eve of an election? >> because he wants to seem like the guy who is fiscally

conservative. even after the tax cut. the tax cut didn't work in this election. it got overrun by immigration and what the president decided he wanted to talk about. so he gets to come back to saying look, maybe we'll take a look at this. but there is -- no one cuts medicare and social security before an election, and this president, as you already pointed out, not going to do it. with medicaid that. >> don't need congress for that. they have states who are proposing waivers to add some means testing, to add work requirements to medicaid. this is how they want to go after that and change those programs. and you can do it between the states and regulation. flirks the middle of the night, 1972, richard nixon said when he was talking to chuck carlson, his henchman, we just won some 41 states but we lost the subpoena power in the house. trump is aware if he keeps control of the house through some miracle, he keeps control of the subpoena power in his hands. >> correct hi, doesn't have to worry about mueller. >> and even if it's just by one or two votes. this is what the election is really about. if he were to maintain control of the house, it will be a vindication for him for all the

demonization of the mueller probe. it will be a vindication for him for all the nativist garbage advertisements that he's put up in the closing weeks, and he will feel emboldened to go hard on immigration and hard against mueller as soon as the election is over. and that will be the thematics of the next two years. >> you think he is running again. >> trump? >> for president? yes. >> you think he is committed? >> i think so. >> they've been raising money since he actually got into office. >> let me back up a tiny bit, because none of us can put ourselves in his head. perhaps there is a scenario in which he says i'm done with this. i feel like i should go out on top. but from everything i've observed of him and to people who know him i talked to, he craves competition and defeating his foes. he is someone who would get up for fight more than anything else. >> he wants to serve in the white house six more years? really? >> i think he likes being the center of attention. >> anyway, i wonder about health. at some point in your age, at that age you start to think about can i keep eating

hamburgers, can i keep this level up of lifestyle where you're constantly under pressure to eat, an ongoing campaign. and you get heavier and heavier all the time. stop the action. >> don't i know it. >> and save yourself. i do. i just as a human being why he would want to do it for six more years. shawna thomas, you're a kid. sam, you guys got nothing to worry about. up next, the closing arguments ahead of the midtermsis a big helping of fear seasoned with literally thousands of misleading statements and outright lies. boy, 1100 in this months. will it matter to voters? 1100 a month of lies? you're watching "hardball." do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service

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whatever party you've got goin' in the back, we've got the business up front. ♪ welcome back to "hardball." "the washington post" fact checker. >> and there is one is reporting in the seven weeks leading up to the midterm elections, the president made 1 -- let me get that right. 1,419, 1,419 false or misleading statements. that's 1,419. an average of 30 false statements a day in the last weeks. that's more than he made in the first nine months of his presidency. so he is galloping right now in mistruths. the number he made in september alone. "the post" notes the flood of presidential misinformation has picked up dramatically as the president has barnstormed across the country, holding rallies with his supporters. let's watch some of it.

>> when you look at that caravan and you a largely very big percentage of men, young, strong, a lot of bad people, a lot of bad people in there, people that are in gangs. you had towns that were practically taken over by ms-13. that's towns, like a country that was invaded an taken over and then was liberated. justice kavanaugh, number one in his class at yale. >> we have the best economy in the history of our country. >> i got the women's vote. >> republicans will always protect americans with preexisting conditions. >> let's bring in tonight's "hardball" round table. eli stokols for "the new york times," and adolfo frank is former very to the great john mccain. does it meter, neera? the other day he was saying i'm a known recognized expert on

crowd measurements. everybody knows he is the opposite of that. he is a joke when it comes to measuring crowds. >> i think what's happening in the country, honestly, particularly over the last week is trump is -- it's not just that he lies, he lies to stoke fear. he lies to juice up his base, but i think what's really interesting is that i do think is -- >> is he trolling us? >> yeah, he is trolling all of us. >> to get us to say he lies. >> but i think his whole effort is to, you know, get the people who voted for him, white noncollege voters to come into this election. they haven't been showing up as much in the special elections. white college educated voters are surging for women have. he is really trying to do stuff. what's been interesting, i really think there is a counter response to the divisive lying. i mean, it's not just lying. it's divisive lying. and so i think the thing is, i think a lot of people, there is a broad coalition whose like wants to check on this. >> adolfo, you like to be lied

to? >> what are you doing, trying to juice up your base? i just saw those clips. the fact of the matter is i don't know if it was the lies in this regard. let i didn't interrupt you. i didn't interrupt you. i didn't interrupt you. a couple of things. according to the mexican ambassador to the united states, there were a lot of violent people that came over. there were a lot of incidents. no, don't interrupt me. secondly, another thing that happened very clearly is that we know that these -- this caravan is 2/3 at least men according to the border patrol. yes, it is. and i can show you. >> how many arabs? how many arabs? how many? >> i don't know. >> how many arabs? >> i don't know. that is the point. that's the point. well don't know. we don't -- >> of course we don't know. the alaskans are in there. >> we know this thing has been organized by sin fronteras.

this is not organic. >> of course it's organic where. do you get it's not organic. i'm sorry. >> look at the organization. sin frontera. >> i appreciate this is what you get from the president. >> i'm not getting anything from the president. >> the mexican ambassador said there was some -- >> very violent. not one, more than one. >> let's take a look at this. right now besides what's happening here right snow a look at the two split screen. there is the president of the united states. he is out there campaigning in indianapolis. donald trump's rallying his supporters, trying to defeat joe donnelly, while at the same time former president barack obama is in atlanta there he is. no tie, getting the vote out for stacey abrams. let me go to you eli. who is going to win this battle of the presidents? >> i don't know. i think we have to wait until tuesday. i'm done making predictions. >> really? that's all i do. >> well, and i think that we're going to have a different electorate than we've ever seen in a midterm election before. >> how so? >> i think there are more first time voters coming out in a

midterm. >> that's good for democrats. >> in some case it's a response to the candidates that are running. but it's impossible to predict, and it's hard to predict exactly. i think the impact of the president you see on the right, that's the one whose having an impact for good and for bad. okay, he is motivating republicans in a lot of these red states, but he is also galvanizing people who haven't voted before. he is galvanizing democrats, independents who might sit on their hands. >> i think you're right turkey, come out and vote against him. >> that's a telling thing that eli just said. i'm done predicting. i didn't feel in 2010 and 2014 when there were elections and everybody was saying it's going to be close or i don't know where it was, there was a feeling, a feeling in 2010 and '14 by both parties that the outcome was going to be what the outcome was. there is still a prediction in your earlier segments, if the republicans hold the house. that's still a possibility. that was nothing that was being discussed -- there wasn't a discussion in 2014 and '10 there. >> have been weeks of talks of democrats taking the house.

>> you think by 60 seats? 40 seats? >> i think it will be a 35 seats. >> i'm with her since april. i think it's just the way it's going to be. i'm not sure it matters. >> my point is -- >> all right -- >> ought this trump talk, expansion of the republican control in the senate is likely. i think that i personally think -- >> where does this go? if he stays in office and keeps getting more heated every year with this scare stuff, what kind of president will he be in six years? he is not going to stay this level of heat. he gets hotter every month. >> i don't think he gets hotter every month. >> we've all watched it. >> i think this whole for example largely based on immigration in the last few weeks is consistent with donald trump's message on immigration since 2016. >> i just want to say one thing about this. we had pipe bombs last week sent to people. we had 11 people die. >> the president went to pittsburgh. you're right. he went there for sympathy. >> i know that's one of the things we talk about. but seven hours after it happened, he was tweeting about a baseball game and actually

attacked the fake news. today he said the fake news is creating violence in our country. the fact that you want to create this reality that you're some uniter when he does everything to divide this country. and i think the majority of the country is going to respond on tuesday for the first time and say we need a check. >> when "the new york times" and the "washington post" basically say -- almost say that they are now going to have a duty to attack this president the last two years. [ overlapping dialog ] >> that's just false. that's fake. >> that's just wrong, okay? and the white house, i'm going just keep it to the white house. the white house loves to attack journalists for writing things that are true about this president and saying that they are negative stories. they're 90% negative. well, the president is lying 30 times a day, delivering false statements 30 times a day. journalists try very hard to refrain from using words like "lie." but when he is out there and when he is saying these things that are not true constantly,

journalists are going to point that out, and they're not going to be intimidated when people say oh, you're against the president because it's our job to point that out. >> what are you talking about? that's crazy. >> he has said it he has said t of journalists are fine people. >> the president never goes after opinion people like me or rachel or anybody else. he doesn't care about us. he cares about front page writers. he doesn't like the facts. >> he likes you, that's why he doesn't attack you. let's move on that. beat this guy right -- "hardball," that's where the action is. make a smart choice.

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be sure to tune in tomorrow night for a special night of live analysis and discussion just three days before the midterms elections. we're going to have joy reid, ari melber, stephanie ruhle and lawrence o'donnell.

it starts at 6:00 p.m. eastern right here on msnbc on saturday night. when we return tonight, let me finish tonight with three reasons, i think they're good ones, that democrats should have a little faith going into tuesday. i mean it, some good faith. you're watching "hardball." we opened our doors with 70-megawatts, 35 mules, and an ice plant. but we brought power to the people- redefining what that meant from one era to the next. over 90 years later we continue to build as one of the nation's largest investors in infrastructure. we don't just help power the american dream.

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let me finish this friday night before the election with this. two things are happening as we get closer to tuesday. one, president trump is getting more mad dog crazy about the

caravan. historically -- hysterically talking about ways to spook people into the voting booth. two, democrats giddy at the thought of victory are nonetheless getting nervous they might blow it like they did in 2016. well, look, only one side's going to be turning out to be right about this. either this election is heading towards the democrats, which is what is scaring trump or it's a repeat of 2016, a very bad democratic memory. please listen up. here's the straight reason for the dems to have a little faith. the election next tuesday is not about you. you're not running the government, voters only have time to worry about what affects their lives, you don't. the reason you lost the last time is because 2016 was about you. it was about the republican voters' rejection of the republican establishment candidates followed by the country's rejection of the democratic establishment's candidate. next tuesday is, again,

unfortunately for democrats not about you but about solely and profoundly about donald trump. the verdict on him will start in the suburbs where women and culturally evolved men will lead the charge against trump, against trumpism. this will be true in burbs across the country, highlighted in the early hours of tuesday evening with word from the counties of philadelphia. that's not to say the republicans won't get a piece of the victory. the fact that this midterm election is going to be about trump is not to say it's going to be all against trump. a good many deep red states who voted for him in '16 will vote for trump's candidates in '18. this will show in the results for the u.s. senate. but the results for the house of representatives will be far different. for sound, constitutional reasons the house prides itself in being the people's house. unlike the electoral college or the u.s. senate it better reflects, even with gerrymandering, the national popular will. i believe in electing its members american voters will make a sound, undeniable

statement against the man awaiting the results in the white house. and that's "hardball" for now. thanks for being with us. "all in" with chris hayes starts right now. tonight on "all in." >> they're even taking our brave troops away from their families for a political stunt at the border. >> four days out the big finish has begun. >> don't fall for the okeydoke. don't be bamboozled. >> tonight, where the vote stands with charlie cook. plus, as his former lawyer warns of untold racism new evidence the trump campaign of fear could backfire. >> you're creating violence by your questions. >> then new white house fears of trump cabinet corruption. >> i didn't have anybody in my administration get indicted. >> steve king's last-minute ad buy. >> stop it. >> and why women are poised